We have made it to the final week of the IndyCar team previews and the ninth preview will take a look at the sophomore season for Carlin. The British team's debut season in IndyCar was productive in checking off many of the basic milestones for a team. The team crawled before it walked and now it is putting one foot in front of the other. With running being the next step it will have to do it with a slightly altered driver lineup. Max Chilton will be back but Charlie Kimball will have a reduced role and it is uncertain if one or more drivers will cycle through the team. One familiar face to IndyCar fans has tested for the team but has yet to be confirmed for any races.
2018 Carlin Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 5th (Toronto)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 17th (Charlie Kimball), 19th (Max Chilton)
2019 Drivers:
Charlie Kimball - #23 Novo Nordisk Chevrolet
There were some difficult days for Kimball in his first IndyCar season without Chip Ganassi Racing. He qualified outside the top twenty in the first three races of the season but he worked his way from 20th to tenth at Long Beach, giving Carlin its first top ten finish in IndyCar. At Barber, Kimball was the only driver not to restart the race on Monday after he spun into the barrier on lap 11.
The Grand Prix of Indianapolis did not go well but Kimball was respectable in the Indianapolis 500 with a starting position of 15th and a lead lap finish in 18th. He got the team another top ten finish in the second Belle Isle race after starting 21st and working his way to eighth. He ended spring with a solid performance at Texas, starting 12th and finishing tenth.
Two below-average performances kicked off the summer at Road America and Iowa but things went Kimball's way at Toronto. Despite starting 20th on the grid, Kimball got into the top five and pushed James Hinchcliffe but he had to settle for fifth, the first top five finish for Carlin.
Kimball traded good and bad results for the rest of the season with a 16th at Mid-Ohio before he kept turning laps at Pocono and finished ninth. Gateway was not a good race but at Portland he started 25th, dead last on the grid, and finished seventh. Sonoma was an abysmal day with Kimball finishing nine laps down in 22nd.
Numbers to Remember:
106: Consecutive IndyCar races starts. The last race Kimball missed was Mid-Ohio 2012 with a wrist injury.
14.5: Kimball's average championship finish after eight IndyCar seasons.
19.4: Kimball average starting position in 2018, the worst of his career and the worst of all regular drivers in 2018
Predictions/Goals:
Make the most of his five starts.
Kimball might not be a fan favorite and nor is he one of top five or six drivers on the grid but he has been a competent driver and we know he can get good results out of a race car. He may have only one victory to his IndyCar career but he has finished in the top ten of the championship twice and he has his scattering of top five finishes.
He will be at St. Petersburg, the Indianapolis 500, Texas, Pocono and Laguna Seca. There is part of me that hopes he can get a few more races out of this season. I doubt we will see him pull out a full season but it would be nice to see him at Road America or Mid-Ohio.
The one thing Kimball has been good at is living up to the expectations. No one goes into a race weekend thinking he is going to be in the top five and competing for a victory but we know he could be a top ten driver and we also know that he can take an average car and get a good result out of it. We don't expect anything spectacular from him but he gets sufficient results and that is what will probably happen with his five scheduled races.
Kimball isn't going to win at St. Petersburg or the three ovals but if he qualified 14th at the season opener and finished 11th, that seems about right. If he qualified 19th for the Indianapolis 500 and finished 12th on the lead lap that checks out. If he went from 17th to eighth at Texas, no one should be surprised.
I think he will do well but this is a crossroads without a clear landmark in either direction for Kimball's career. He turned 34 years old last week, young enough to spend at least another five to seven years in IndyCar but it appears that is not likely. Where does he go? Are sports cars an option? Could he spend the next decade running the Indianapolis 500 only? Why not NASCAR? He has plenty of time left in his career and it is tough to see him in such an uncertain position.
RC Enerson - #23 Carlin Chevrolet... Maybe?
Here is a name that has been out of the spotlight for the last few years.
Enerson was a successful Indy Lights driver, having finished fourth in the championship in 2015 after he skipped Pro Mazda and entered the series straight from U.S. F2000. He started the 2016 season with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports before dropping out of the series to save his budget for future IndyCar opportunities and he made his debut later that year.
His IndyCar debut came at Mid-Ohio and he qualified 18th but worked his way into the top ten. What killed a promising was result was he ran out of fuel while coming in for a pit stop and he stalled the car, costing him a lap. His second start came at Watkins Glen and he qualified 11th but after an early incident he was up to sixth and running competitively. One caution came before he was able to make a pit stop and it dropped him down the order but he was able to run hard on the final stint and got back to finish ninth. He started 22nd for the Sonoma finale and finished 19th in that race.
Enerson tested for the team during the early portion of the offseason at Austin in autumn 2018 and he participated again for the team at the Laguna Seca test and the first official open test of the season a few weeks ago, which was also held at Austin. He recently participated in a test with the team at Sebring.
Numbers to Remember:
917: Days between Emerson's most recent IndyCar start at the 2016 season finale at Sonoma on September 18, 2016 and the Austin IndyCar race, the earliest he could appear in the 2019 season.
6.0833: Average finish in 24 Indy Lights starts.
12: Races uncounted for in Carlin's second entry.
Predictions/Goals:
Get enough funding to make one start.
There are some things I still don't understand about motorsports and one of those is Enerson has found the funding to make two tests at Austin, a test at Laguna Seca and he tested at Sebring last week but we are not sure he is going to run any races. I understand the bills have to be paid but how does he get the funding for tests but not races? What company would pay for a test where there is no one watching over a race or two?
Either way, it seems like he will be in the car but for how many races and where those races will be remains unseen.
It is kind of hard to fathom it will have been two and a half years since Enerson ran in IndyCar and he has been on the sidelines since the 2017 24 Hours of Daytona. He may have been helping out with the Lucas Oil Racing School but he has not been in a race seat and that is a disappointing fact based on the currently state of motorsports. Someone like Enerson should have been running somewhere if it wasn't IndyCar. Sports cars, touring cars, somewhere!
Enerson had a respectable test at Austin and he was faster than Max Chilton. Depending on how many races he gets, we will have to set standards accordingly. If he only gets two or three races then the expectations will not be as great as if he was running the other 12 races. I think the little thing to ask for is for Enerson to re-create his 2016 outings that got people excited about him potentially being a full-time driver. Of course, he should want to improve over the those 19th place results but the one thing we took away from those three races was Enerson was not that far off the rest of the field and could hold his own.
He will only be 22 years old when the season starts and there is still a lot of time for him to make that next step to full-time IndyCar driver. The least he can do is go out in the races he will be in and finish ahead of his teammate.
Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
This was not a great season and it can be summarized quite quickly.
Chilton did not finish on the lead lap in the first four races of the season and when he finally did manage to complete every lap in a race it was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, where he started and finished 16th. He qualified 20th in the Indianapolis 500 and finished two laps down in 22nd.
It appeared something was going right in the first Belle Isle race where he started tenth but he dropped like a rock from the start and finished 20th. In the second race, things were better and he finished 11th. Texas was not a bad race but he still finished a lap down in 12th and he finished 17th, 15th and 23rd over the next three races.
The big boost for Chilton was qualifying sixth at Mid-Ohio but he tossed it away on lap three when he spun Takuma Sato and was handed a penalty. So long for a good day and he finished two laps down in 24th, dead last. By process of avoiding being eliminated he picked up a 13th place finish at Pocono and followed it with 17th at Gateway. Portland was the only other race where it appeared things were going his way and he was in contention for a top ten finish but he was the only driver who was unable to make it to pit lane when Santino Ferrucci stopped on circuit. He stayed out and led 10 laps but that was only a consolation in what was an 18th place finish. He started and finished 21st at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
17.9: Average finish in 2018, the worst average finish for a driver to start all the races in a season since Stefano Coletti's 18.5 in 2016.
5: Lead lap finishes in 2018.
2,243: Laps completed in 2018, eighth-most. His 19th place championship finish is the worst for a driver to finish a season in the top ten of most laps completed since 2001 when Oriol Servià completed the second-most laps but finished 19th in the championship, Shinji Nakano completed the eighth-most laps but was 26th in the championship and Michel Jourdain, Jr. completed the ninth-most laps and finished 20th in the championship.
Predictions/Goals:
Improve everywhere, get a top ten finish, be in the conversation at a few races.
Last year was rough and Chilton really has only one way to go.
For the first two years of his career Chilton was respectable. There were races he qualified at the front and a few other outings where he was competitive and in the top ten. We haven't seen Chilton really be in contention for a race victory or run with the big boys other than the Indianapolis 500 in 2017 but pit strategy went in his favor that day. We haven't seen a race where Chilton started at the front and stayed at the front. That likely will not change in 2019 with Carlin entering year two. Don't prepare to see Chilton having a race where he is in the top five with Will Power, Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi and Josef Newgarden.
He just needs a few good days but he really needs a top ten finish. Chilton could finish 12th or 11th in the first eight races but that isn't going to do it. He needs a day where he finished ninth or eighth. It doesn't have to be an impressive day. It just has to be a day where he qualifies 13th or 14th and through pit strategy or attrition gets into the top ten and he can build on his season from there.
Chilton isn't a terrible driver. He is far from a travesty. It was just a case where 2018 was a horrible season. He could mix it for a spot in the top fifteen in the championship but that seems like the best he can do. The grid is tough and Carlin still has a lot to prove. The one hope is Chilton's testing pace at Laguna Seca is a true indicator. He was fastest in what was an abbreviated session but some teams were using push-to-pass at that test and others were not. It could be a case Chilton's lap time was inflated but if he is a fraction better it will take him forward in 2019.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Monday, February 25, 2019
Musings From the Weekend: Who Isn't Going to Have a Ride Come May?
Brad Keselowski got his 60th victory for Team Penske, breaking a tie with Mark Donohue for most all-time in the history of the organization. Elsewhere in the world, the 2019 World Superbike title might not be Jonathan Rea's after all. The Asian Le Mans Series closed its 2018-19 season at Sepang and crowded three new champions. Supercross had its second Triple Crown race of the season. Formula One and MotoGP have been testing. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
Who Isn't Going to Have Ride Come May?
We are ending February and the IndyCar season is upon us.
Unlike previous years when it seemed the season was still an eternity away at this time of the year, we are less than two weeks away from the St. Petersburg season opener. We know what the grid will look like for that race and we can pencil in what the grid will be at the other 16 races. There are still a few openings. Carlin has a few races open in its second entry. We aren't sure how many races Juncos Racing will be participating in. Most of it is known. There is not going to be any major surprises. This feels a lot different then some of those years in Champ Car and the IRL when we would reach this time of the year and half the seats were unaccounted for.
With the full-time grid in good standing, we turn to the Indianapolis 500 and since the last time we took roll call, a few more drivers have confirmed their plans for May.
Conor Daly will drive a fifth Andretti Autosport entry. We got confirmation that Charlie Kimball will drive the second Carlin entry.
With March approaching, there are 28 confirmed and complete Indianapolis 500 entries and while Patricio O'Ward will not be full-time at Harding Steinbrenner Racing, he still has his scholarship money, which includes an Indianapolis 500 entry. Right there, we have 29 entries.
It has been quiet over the last month but the concern isn't about a full field. We are going to get 33 cars, we will likely equal last year's entry list of 35 and it cannot be ruled out there will be an additional entry or two to bring the total to three-dozen or more. If there are still possibly six spots up for grabs we have to start asking, who will not be entered this May?
There are going to be a lot of new faces at the Speedway this year. We already have six Indianapolis 500 rookies entered, from the full-time drivers Colton Herta, Felix Rosenqvist, Marcus Ericsson and Santino Ferrucci to two part-time Brits in Ben Hanley and Jordan King. Fernando Alonso is returning for his sophomore appearance after a year at Monaco. There were 35 drivers entered last year and they can't all return in 2019.
Jay Howard, Danica Patrick, Zachary Claman De Melo, Sage Karam, Stefan Wilson, Carlos Muñoz, Kyle Kaiser, James Davison, Pippa Mann, Oriol Servià, J.R. Hildebrand and Gabby Chaves are 12 entries from 2018 that have yet to announce a 2019 return. We know Patrick is retired but that still means there are 11 drivers competing for six or seven seats and those aren't the only drivers that have to mentioned for the remaining openings.
Aaron Telitz and Victor Franzoni are two Indy Lights drivers from 2018 that have not confirmed returns to the junior series in 2019. Santiago Urrutia had three successful seasons in Indy Lights but he didn't win the championship. Unfortunately, it appears Urrutia is moving on to touring cars, as he has announced a ride in the TCR Europe Series, although maybe he has a sock full of change set aside for an Indianapolis 500 attempt. Either way, those could be three additional names in the game of musical chairs.
Who should feel comfortable about getting a seat?
Sage Karam has a history with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and we have not heard about those two going in separate directions. It would be more of a surprise if Karam wasn't driving for D&R than if he were.
Juncos Racing is still piecing together its season and the only confirmed race is Austin of all races with Kyle Kaiser. Kaiser made his Indianapolis 500 debut with the team last year and he has a long history with the team. If Juncos Racing returns, which seems likely, Kaiser is the sensible choice and if Juncos has two cars then one of those would have to be Kaiser.
Let's pencil those two in and that gets us to 31 entries. Where else are rides going to come from?
Dreyer & Reinbold and Juncos would add two to the Chevrolet total and bring it to 14 with Honda responsible for another 16 and the one unknown being the landing place of O'Ward. Last year, Honda led the way with 19 entries to Chevrolet's 16.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, Dale Coyne Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing are the three Honda teams that have yet to announce an additional entry. SPM and DCR have a history of running an extra car. Ganassi doesn't. The one place where that 19th Honda could come from is Harding Steinbrenner Racing. While O'Ward will not be full-time there, it appears that could be a prime one-off seat with HSR in alliance with Andretti Autosport.
When it comes to Chevrolet, A.J. Foyt Racing always runs an additional car, even when it says it will not. Carlin is still a young team and an additional entry would be a new endeavor. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing ran two cars last year and that could not be ruled out for 2019 while Juncos Racing ran two cars in 2017 and the team has a second car that could be used for an additional entry.
I think we will see SPM, DCR and HSR rounding out the Honda camp and Chevrolet will have Foyt and D&R run an extra car. Whether or not the 103rd Indianapolis 500 will have 35 or 36 entries comes down Juncos running a second car.
One of those possible six entries will likely be where O'Ward lands behind the wheel of a race car and this is where it gets interesting.
It is hard to see O'Ward going back to HSR. That seems like a bridge burned after the failed execution of putting together a full-time program. The bad news for O'Ward is that seat could be the best of the open seats. It is going to be a seat with Andretti Autosport fingerprints all over it. DCR's third car is not known for being the most prepared entry. That historically is the pieced together program that doesn't get on track until Wednesday practice at the earliest. Sometimes that car has to wait until Thursday to hit the track. Foyt isn't much better. D&R could be good but one-off entries can be shaky. Juncos Racing is a good team and gets the job done but does it with limited resources. That could be a turn off for O'Ward but there is a feeling the best anyone could do with Juncos Racing is 15th.
The best landing spot for O'Ward would be SPM and Honda should want to keep O'Ward under its roof and not let him go to Chevrolet. The problem is SPM is team that will accept all suitors. It has options and it will not necessarily accommodate O'Ward for the sake of Honda.
At this point it would be easier to rule out who will likely not be back for 2019: Zachary Claman De Melo has returned to Indy Lights for 2019 with Belardi Auto Racing. Belardi partnered on Foyt's additional car in last year's race but I think Claman De Melo's focus will be on Indy Lights. Stefan Wilson's program was really two years in the making after Wilson step aside when Alonso and McLaren came knocking on Andretti Autosport's door in 2017. It was a great story and Wilson had a respectable sophomore run but it doesn't appear 2019 will be in the card. I am not sure Jay Howard can comeback for a third consecutive year, especially with the increased depth of the grid.
That leaves Muñoz, Davison, Mann, Servià, Hildebrand and Chaves and nothing much has been said from any of those six drivers. All six have been quiet. Servià has made the most noise and even that has been a whimper. He has been linked to running this year with former Conquest Racing owner Éric Bachelart looking to be a part of that program. Servià has raced everywhere. He has raced with either 15 or 16 teams, depending on how you look at his entry last year with the Scuderia Corsa-Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing partnership. He has raced with SPM, DCR and D&R already. He might be 44 years old but Servià is still an openly sought driver and it is hard to see this being the year when the grid moves on from the Catalan driver.
The other five drivers are a mystery. Four of them were unemployed most of 2018 and Chaves was sidelined late in the IndyCar season. If a team has the money it should hire Muñoz. Of the drivers with at least five Indianapolis 500 starts, Muñoz has the sixth-best average finish all-time at 7.5, behind only Bill Holland, Ted Horn, Jimmy Murphy, Harry Hartz and Dan Wheldon. He has three top five finishes and five top ten finishes in six starts. With that second HSR seat open and with his ties to Andretti Autosport, I think Muñoz is the prime candidate for that ride.
Hildebrand had a good run with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing last year and he is another driver who runs well at Indianapolis. Similar to Karam, Hildebrand returning with D&R seems to make the most sense. It isn't set that D&R will run two cars but Chevrolet's additional entries have to come from somewhere and Penske isn't going to run five cars.
There would still be possibly two or three seats open with Davison, Mann and Chaves all available from the 2018 lot of drivers but it could be the case where time will not be on their side in 2019. Not everyone can return every year. There has to be some fluctuation. Davison seems to rise from the back of the room and get a seat every time he is in a seat for the Indianapolis 500 so he might come out of nowhere in April. Chaves is young and he is a smart driver. He doesn't have accidents and that would be a favorable trait for a team that doesn't want to repair a car that it otherwise would not run in any race other than the Indianapolis 500. Chaves would be a suitable candidate should Coyne run an extra car.
Unfortunately, Mann could be on the outside one year after failing to qualify for the race and missing one year could be the end for good. It is an unintended consequence of competition in motorsports and when each year is a roll of the dice for sponsors all it takes one year to go bust. Mann is a likable person and I am sure she will continue to be searching avenues to get back to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway to try and make the Indianapolis 500 for the seventh time in her career but the nature of motorsports could mean her career is over even if it isn't her time. (Update: Of course news comes out hours after posting that Mann is working with Clauson-Marshall Racing to field an entry in partnership with A.J. Foyt Racing).
Each year, there is a familiar face that we do not see in May. Ryan Briscoe has not been in the last three races and if James Hinchcliffe had not been injured it would have been four. Alex Tagliani was not in last year's race and he had led at least one lap in the six prior Indianapolis 500s. Juan Pablo Montoya was not in last year's race and he likely isn't going to be there this year even though we would pencil him in as one of the top five favorites if he were entered. Buddy Lazier has made 20 starts and yet we somehow went from comfortable with him being there to not comfortable when he wasn't and back to comfortable only to be wondering where he was in 2018 and somehow missing that scrappy team that really would not have had a chance against 35 other cars.
Drivers come and go and the race goes on. A day will come soon when neither Hélio Castroneves nor Tony Kanaan are in the Indianapolis 500 and we will be fine the same way the race still happened in 1995 despite that race not featuring A.J. Foyt, Mario Andretti, Al Unser and Rick Mears.
We are going to miss people and that is ok. It is part of life. Someone else will come in and it will never be the same but that doesn't mean it will be worse. We should cherish the time and savory the memories each May. The following year will be different.
Champions From the Weekend
The #22 United Autosport Ligier-Nissan of Paul di Resta and Philip Hanson clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a runner-up finish at Sepang.
The #13 Inter Europol Competition Ligier-Nissan of Jakub Smiechowski and Martin Hippe clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP3 championship with a class victory at Sepang, the second of the season for the team.
The #11 CarGuy Racing Ferrari of James Calado, Kei Cozzolino and Takeshi Kimura clinched the Asian Le Mans Series GT championship with a class victory at Sepang and the #11 Ferrari swept the season winning all four races in the GT class.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Brad Keselowski and two of the three class winners from the 4 Hours of Sepang but did you know...
The #24 Algarve Pro Racing Ligier-Judd of Harrison Newey, Andrea Pizzitola and Ate de Jong won the 4 Hours of Sepang. It was Newey and Pizzitola's second victory of the season.
Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Atlanta. Kyle Busch won the Truck race.
Álvaro Bautista swept the World Superbike races from Phillip Island with Jonathan Rea finishing second all three times. Randy Krummenacher won the Supersport race.
Eli Tomac won the second Supercross Triple Crown weekend of the season from Detroit. He won the first two races and finished sixth in the final race. His eight points was one better than Cooper Webb, who won the final race of the night.
Coming Up This Weekend
The newly renamed Blancpain GT World Challenge America starts its season at Austin.
Supercars opens another season in Adelaide.
One week after NASCAR was in town, Supercross will be in Atlanta.
NASCAR is back in Las Vegas.
Who Isn't Going to Have Ride Come May?
We are ending February and the IndyCar season is upon us.
Unlike previous years when it seemed the season was still an eternity away at this time of the year, we are less than two weeks away from the St. Petersburg season opener. We know what the grid will look like for that race and we can pencil in what the grid will be at the other 16 races. There are still a few openings. Carlin has a few races open in its second entry. We aren't sure how many races Juncos Racing will be participating in. Most of it is known. There is not going to be any major surprises. This feels a lot different then some of those years in Champ Car and the IRL when we would reach this time of the year and half the seats were unaccounted for.
With the full-time grid in good standing, we turn to the Indianapolis 500 and since the last time we took roll call, a few more drivers have confirmed their plans for May.
Conor Daly will drive a fifth Andretti Autosport entry. We got confirmation that Charlie Kimball will drive the second Carlin entry.
With March approaching, there are 28 confirmed and complete Indianapolis 500 entries and while Patricio O'Ward will not be full-time at Harding Steinbrenner Racing, he still has his scholarship money, which includes an Indianapolis 500 entry. Right there, we have 29 entries.
It has been quiet over the last month but the concern isn't about a full field. We are going to get 33 cars, we will likely equal last year's entry list of 35 and it cannot be ruled out there will be an additional entry or two to bring the total to three-dozen or more. If there are still possibly six spots up for grabs we have to start asking, who will not be entered this May?
There are going to be a lot of new faces at the Speedway this year. We already have six Indianapolis 500 rookies entered, from the full-time drivers Colton Herta, Felix Rosenqvist, Marcus Ericsson and Santino Ferrucci to two part-time Brits in Ben Hanley and Jordan King. Fernando Alonso is returning for his sophomore appearance after a year at Monaco. There were 35 drivers entered last year and they can't all return in 2019.
Jay Howard, Danica Patrick, Zachary Claman De Melo, Sage Karam, Stefan Wilson, Carlos Muñoz, Kyle Kaiser, James Davison, Pippa Mann, Oriol Servià, J.R. Hildebrand and Gabby Chaves are 12 entries from 2018 that have yet to announce a 2019 return. We know Patrick is retired but that still means there are 11 drivers competing for six or seven seats and those aren't the only drivers that have to mentioned for the remaining openings.
Aaron Telitz and Victor Franzoni are two Indy Lights drivers from 2018 that have not confirmed returns to the junior series in 2019. Santiago Urrutia had three successful seasons in Indy Lights but he didn't win the championship. Unfortunately, it appears Urrutia is moving on to touring cars, as he has announced a ride in the TCR Europe Series, although maybe he has a sock full of change set aside for an Indianapolis 500 attempt. Either way, those could be three additional names in the game of musical chairs.
Who should feel comfortable about getting a seat?
Sage Karam has a history with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and we have not heard about those two going in separate directions. It would be more of a surprise if Karam wasn't driving for D&R than if he were.
Juncos Racing is still piecing together its season and the only confirmed race is Austin of all races with Kyle Kaiser. Kaiser made his Indianapolis 500 debut with the team last year and he has a long history with the team. If Juncos Racing returns, which seems likely, Kaiser is the sensible choice and if Juncos has two cars then one of those would have to be Kaiser.
Let's pencil those two in and that gets us to 31 entries. Where else are rides going to come from?
Dreyer & Reinbold and Juncos would add two to the Chevrolet total and bring it to 14 with Honda responsible for another 16 and the one unknown being the landing place of O'Ward. Last year, Honda led the way with 19 entries to Chevrolet's 16.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, Dale Coyne Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing are the three Honda teams that have yet to announce an additional entry. SPM and DCR have a history of running an extra car. Ganassi doesn't. The one place where that 19th Honda could come from is Harding Steinbrenner Racing. While O'Ward will not be full-time there, it appears that could be a prime one-off seat with HSR in alliance with Andretti Autosport.
When it comes to Chevrolet, A.J. Foyt Racing always runs an additional car, even when it says it will not. Carlin is still a young team and an additional entry would be a new endeavor. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing ran two cars last year and that could not be ruled out for 2019 while Juncos Racing ran two cars in 2017 and the team has a second car that could be used for an additional entry.
I think we will see SPM, DCR and HSR rounding out the Honda camp and Chevrolet will have Foyt and D&R run an extra car. Whether or not the 103rd Indianapolis 500 will have 35 or 36 entries comes down Juncos running a second car.
One of those possible six entries will likely be where O'Ward lands behind the wheel of a race car and this is where it gets interesting.
It is hard to see O'Ward going back to HSR. That seems like a bridge burned after the failed execution of putting together a full-time program. The bad news for O'Ward is that seat could be the best of the open seats. It is going to be a seat with Andretti Autosport fingerprints all over it. DCR's third car is not known for being the most prepared entry. That historically is the pieced together program that doesn't get on track until Wednesday practice at the earliest. Sometimes that car has to wait until Thursday to hit the track. Foyt isn't much better. D&R could be good but one-off entries can be shaky. Juncos Racing is a good team and gets the job done but does it with limited resources. That could be a turn off for O'Ward but there is a feeling the best anyone could do with Juncos Racing is 15th.
The best landing spot for O'Ward would be SPM and Honda should want to keep O'Ward under its roof and not let him go to Chevrolet. The problem is SPM is team that will accept all suitors. It has options and it will not necessarily accommodate O'Ward for the sake of Honda.
At this point it would be easier to rule out who will likely not be back for 2019: Zachary Claman De Melo has returned to Indy Lights for 2019 with Belardi Auto Racing. Belardi partnered on Foyt's additional car in last year's race but I think Claman De Melo's focus will be on Indy Lights. Stefan Wilson's program was really two years in the making after Wilson step aside when Alonso and McLaren came knocking on Andretti Autosport's door in 2017. It was a great story and Wilson had a respectable sophomore run but it doesn't appear 2019 will be in the card. I am not sure Jay Howard can comeback for a third consecutive year, especially with the increased depth of the grid.
That leaves Muñoz, Davison, Mann, Servià, Hildebrand and Chaves and nothing much has been said from any of those six drivers. All six have been quiet. Servià has made the most noise and even that has been a whimper. He has been linked to running this year with former Conquest Racing owner Éric Bachelart looking to be a part of that program. Servià has raced everywhere. He has raced with either 15 or 16 teams, depending on how you look at his entry last year with the Scuderia Corsa-Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing partnership. He has raced with SPM, DCR and D&R already. He might be 44 years old but Servià is still an openly sought driver and it is hard to see this being the year when the grid moves on from the Catalan driver.
The other five drivers are a mystery. Four of them were unemployed most of 2018 and Chaves was sidelined late in the IndyCar season. If a team has the money it should hire Muñoz. Of the drivers with at least five Indianapolis 500 starts, Muñoz has the sixth-best average finish all-time at 7.5, behind only Bill Holland, Ted Horn, Jimmy Murphy, Harry Hartz and Dan Wheldon. He has three top five finishes and five top ten finishes in six starts. With that second HSR seat open and with his ties to Andretti Autosport, I think Muñoz is the prime candidate for that ride.
Hildebrand had a good run with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing last year and he is another driver who runs well at Indianapolis. Similar to Karam, Hildebrand returning with D&R seems to make the most sense. It isn't set that D&R will run two cars but Chevrolet's additional entries have to come from somewhere and Penske isn't going to run five cars.
There would still be possibly two or three seats open with Davison, Mann and Chaves all available from the 2018 lot of drivers but it could be the case where time will not be on their side in 2019. Not everyone can return every year. There has to be some fluctuation. Davison seems to rise from the back of the room and get a seat every time he is in a seat for the Indianapolis 500 so he might come out of nowhere in April. Chaves is young and he is a smart driver. He doesn't have accidents and that would be a favorable trait for a team that doesn't want to repair a car that it otherwise would not run in any race other than the Indianapolis 500. Chaves would be a suitable candidate should Coyne run an extra car.
Unfortunately, Mann could be on the outside one year after failing to qualify for the race and missing one year could be the end for good. It is an unintended consequence of competition in motorsports and when each year is a roll of the dice for sponsors all it takes one year to go bust. Mann is a likable person and I am sure she will continue to be searching avenues to get back to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway to try and make the Indianapolis 500 for the seventh time in her career but the nature of motorsports could mean her career is over even if it isn't her time. (Update: Of course news comes out hours after posting that Mann is working with Clauson-Marshall Racing to field an entry in partnership with A.J. Foyt Racing).
Each year, there is a familiar face that we do not see in May. Ryan Briscoe has not been in the last three races and if James Hinchcliffe had not been injured it would have been four. Alex Tagliani was not in last year's race and he had led at least one lap in the six prior Indianapolis 500s. Juan Pablo Montoya was not in last year's race and he likely isn't going to be there this year even though we would pencil him in as one of the top five favorites if he were entered. Buddy Lazier has made 20 starts and yet we somehow went from comfortable with him being there to not comfortable when he wasn't and back to comfortable only to be wondering where he was in 2018 and somehow missing that scrappy team that really would not have had a chance against 35 other cars.
Drivers come and go and the race goes on. A day will come soon when neither Hélio Castroneves nor Tony Kanaan are in the Indianapolis 500 and we will be fine the same way the race still happened in 1995 despite that race not featuring A.J. Foyt, Mario Andretti, Al Unser and Rick Mears.
We are going to miss people and that is ok. It is part of life. Someone else will come in and it will never be the same but that doesn't mean it will be worse. We should cherish the time and savory the memories each May. The following year will be different.
Champions From the Weekend
The #22 United Autosport Ligier-Nissan of Paul di Resta and Philip Hanson clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a runner-up finish at Sepang.
The #13 Inter Europol Competition Ligier-Nissan of Jakub Smiechowski and Martin Hippe clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP3 championship with a class victory at Sepang, the second of the season for the team.
The #11 CarGuy Racing Ferrari of James Calado, Kei Cozzolino and Takeshi Kimura clinched the Asian Le Mans Series GT championship with a class victory at Sepang and the #11 Ferrari swept the season winning all four races in the GT class.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Brad Keselowski and two of the three class winners from the 4 Hours of Sepang but did you know...
The #24 Algarve Pro Racing Ligier-Judd of Harrison Newey, Andrea Pizzitola and Ate de Jong won the 4 Hours of Sepang. It was Newey and Pizzitola's second victory of the season.
Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Atlanta. Kyle Busch won the Truck race.
Álvaro Bautista swept the World Superbike races from Phillip Island with Jonathan Rea finishing second all three times. Randy Krummenacher won the Supersport race.
Eli Tomac won the second Supercross Triple Crown weekend of the season from Detroit. He won the first two races and finished sixth in the final race. His eight points was one better than Cooper Webb, who won the final race of the night.
Coming Up This Weekend
The newly renamed Blancpain GT World Challenge America starts its season at Austin.
Supercars opens another season in Adelaide.
One week after NASCAR was in town, Supercross will be in Atlanta.
NASCAR is back in Las Vegas.
Friday, February 22, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Andretti Autosport
The eighth IndyCar team preview looks at Andretti Autosport, which had a strong year and it had not one but two drivers who were in the championship discussion. It had not two but three drivers finish in the top ten of the championship. It has not three but four drivers returning for 2019 and each driver could take a step forward. It has a veteran backbone with Ryan Hunter-Reay and Marco Andretti while the younger drivers Alexander Rossi and Zach Veach have not taken long to get to the front.
2018 Andretti Autosport Review
Wins: 5 (Long Beach, Belle Isle II, Mid-Ohio, Pocono, Sonoma)
Poles: 5 (Long Beach, Belle Isle I, Belle Isle II, Mid-Ohio, Sonoma)
Championship Finishes: 2nd (Alexander Rossi), 4th (Ryan Hunter-Reay), 9th (Marco Andretti), 15th (Zach Veach)
2019 Drivers:
Zach Veach - #26 Group One Thousand One/Gainbridge Honda
Veach's tenure with Andretti Autosport did not start off great. His first two starts ended with him finishing one lap down in 16th position. Third time was the charm and while Veach might not have been solidly in the front from the start he put himself in position to finish fourth and challenge Ed Jones for third down the stretch.
The bad news for Veach is he would hit a rough patch of results and be the worst finishing Andretti Autosport's car in the next eight races, which included a few fires along the way and a great run at Texas, where he was making up ground early but his race ended before the sun had disappeared behind the grandstands after he slapped the wall on the back straightaway.
In the middle of summer, Veach found his groove at Toronto when Andretti Autosport was having its worst race of the season and his seventh place finish earned him the best result of the four drivers. His first time racing in his home state was another good day with Veach coming home in tenth at Mid-Ohio. The final two oval races were standout performances. He was quick all weekend at Pocono and finished sixth while he had to start 16th at Gateway because the field was set by points but Veach charged up to fifth and if qualifying had taken place he might have been contending for the victory from the start.
It appeared the momentum would carry out west and he started sixth at Portland but an off-track excursion derail a good start and he was only ok at Sonoma, ending the season in 14th.
Numbers to Remember:
2.236: Improvement in average finish from the first nine races of 2018 (15.111) to the final eight races of the season (12.875).
4: Veach was one of four drivers to be running at the finish of every race in 2018 along with Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi and Josef Newgarden.
8: Lead lap finishes in 2018, tied for 16th with Charlie Kimball and ahead of only Spencer Pigot (seven) and Max Chilton (five) amongst full-time drivers.
Predictions/Goals:
Keep up what he was doing at the end of 2018.
Veach's season turned around in the second half of the season. He still had bad days. He threw away a top ten finish at Portland when he went off course but that came after four consecutive top ten finishes and two impressive races at Pocono and Gateway but the mistakes were reduced over the course of the season.
There is a sense that Veach could win a race in 2019, especially at an oval. Besides Pocono and Gateway, Veach was quick at Texas and worked his way into the top five before he brushed the wall and forced his team to make repairs. We know Andretti Autosport will have it figured out at the Indianapolis 500. This is a great position for the Ohioan, who seemed to get a handle on ovals in 2018.
One area thing Veach has to improve on or at least prevent from happening again is being the worst Andretti Autosport finisher in races. To no fault of his own, Veach was the worst Andretti Autosport finish in ten of the first 11 races of the season with the exception being his fourth place finish at Long Beach. Some of those results came after rough days but there were other races where he held his own and his three teammates were just better. He had finishes of 12th and 13th at Belle Isle. Andretti Autosport is a good team but what are the odds that it would have three cars in the top ten in both races? And Veach started seventh in that second Belle Isle race.
Could Veach improve and fight for the top ten in the championship? It isn't inconceivable. If Veach starts 2019 how he ended 2018 and keeps that up throughout this season then he will be fighting for tenth. I think Veach moves up a few positions and he will be hanging around tenth. He should aim to get eight to ten top ten finishes and have at least three in the first eight races of the season. When it comes to qualifying, he should aim to lower his average starting position from 14.5 to around 10.5.
Alexander Rossi - #27 NAPA Auto Parts Honda
Rossi was everyone's dark horse for the championship at the start of the season, which means it was no surprise when he worked his way from 12th to second at St. Petersburg and found himself chipping away at the gap to Robert Wickens. We know how it played out. Rossi ran deep into turn one, there was contact, Wickens spun and Rossi dropped to third.
The next race Rossi again was at the front and looked to be in the discussion for race victory but a penalty for contact with a crew member on his first stop dropped him to the rear. It set up one of Rossi's many spectacular performances of the season with the Californian picking people off at a track that otherwise was seen as too difficult for passing. He got back on the lead lap all on his own under green flag conditions. He couldn't get to the lead but he finished third.
Like Veach, third time was the charm for Rossi and from pole position he led 71 of 85 laps on his way to victory and the points lead. He would drop to second in the championship at Barber but he remained second over the next three races, which included a breathtaking performance from 32nd on the grid at the Indianapolis 500 with passes on the outside while many others did not have a handle of their car. Rossi worked his way up to fourth and a third in the first Belle Isle race allowed him to re-take the championship lead.
He gave away at least second in the second Belle Isle race when he locked up while leading and his right front tire subsequently failed. He pulled off a 12th place finish but gave up a lot of points. He couldn't get around Simon Pagenaud for second at Texas and settled for third but he suffered one more blow at Road America when camber issues at the left front force him off the podium and to 16th.
After two mediocre results at Iowa and Toronto, Rossi found his stride with another beat down from pole position at Mid-Ohio and a historic beat down from third on the grid at Pocono. He preached patience at the start of the Gateway race and he was one of the few drivers to stretch fuel on the final stint. He didn't win the race but had enough to finish second.
It appeared the championship was falling into his lap at Portland when Scott Dixon was caught in the first lap accident and then had a pit lane speeding penalty. He was dominating again until the caution came out before a pit stop. This shuffled him back and behind Dixon. Instead of gaining ground he fell a few pegs back after finishing eighth. To make it worse, he shot himself in the foot at Sonoma after he ran into the back of Marco Andretti and cut down his own tire. He was able to get it changed and a caution allowed him to get back on the lead lap. He charged to the front but didn't have enough to catch Dixon.
Numbers to Remember:
11: It has been 11 seasons since the runner-up in a season won the championship the following year. Scott Dixon did it in 2008 after finishing second to Dario Franchitti in 2007.
7: Times has a driver gone from championship runner-up to champion in successive season (Jimmy Bryan 1955, A.J. Foyt 1962, Mario Andretti 1969, Al Unser 1970, Michael Andretti 1991, Bobby Rahal 1992, Scott Dixon 2008).
3: Rossi was never lower than third in the championship during 2018.
Predictions/Goals:
Championship. That is the goal. Rossi had a hand on the Astor Cup in 2018. Scott Dixon didn't blow Rossi out of the water and the title came down to a roll of the dice. Dixon didn't have it easily in his hands and just had to come home in the top 18 at Sonoma. Rossi pushed Dixon to the finale and we are a pair of cautions at Portland away from Rossi heading into Sonoma as the championship leader with the ball in his court.
Rossi made his mistakes. He coughed up points at St. Petersburg, Phoenix, Barber, Belle Isle II and Road America. He all could have finished better at those races. At St. Petersburg, if he doesn't get into Wickens, he finishes second and that is five more points to his total. If he doesn't make contact with a pit crew member at Phoenix, he might win that race. At Barber, he slid off in the wet and went from eighth to 11th. If he settles for second at Belle Isle he scores 20 more points. Road America he had a mechanical issue, those are going to happen.
In the second half of the season, Rossi didn't cough up as many points because of his own mistakes. Toronto is really the only case where he boned himself when he drove into Will Power and had to make a pit stop to change a front wing. Portland was out of his control. He should have won that race but a caution fell before his pit stop. He shot himself in the foot at Sonoma but had five of the seven races listed above gone his way then he likely enters as the championship leader and his entire approach to the start of that Sonoma race is different.
If Rossi limits the mistakes and keeps up the pace he is going to be in the championship fight again, he is going to win three or four or five races and he is going to be on the podium close to ten times.
Ryan Hunter-Reay - #28 DHL Honda
The year started with back-to-back fifth place finishes at St. Petersburg and Phoenix but Long Beach was a rough race for Hunter-Reay. He was forced to stop early to change a front wing and after he found himself back in the top ten Takuma Sato made contact and cut down a tire. He was able to work his back on the lead lap but Sébastien Bourdais' spin in hairpin impeded Hunter-Reay and contact with the barrier ended his race.
He was the second-best car at Barber but a sour engine kept him from being competitive in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This year everything lasted 500 miles for Hunter-Reay at Indianapolis and he finished fifth. He followed it up with a strong performance in the first Belle Isle race but a caution kept his three-stop strategy vaulting him to the lead and he finished in second behind Scott Dixon. In the second race, Hunter-Reay was able to run a three-stop strategy in full and he chased down Rossi, running over a second and a half faster, forcing an error and allowing Hunter-Reay to pick up his first victory since 2016.
Another top five followed at Texas and he was running in Josef Newgarden's shadow all day at Road America but just couldn't find a way through and finished second. Iowa was a difficult race as he had no radio communication throughout almost all of it and the team could not make the necessary adjustments on the car. He remained in the top ten despite this until the left rear camber shims fell out and made his car uncontrollable. Toronto did not go better as Hunter-Reay locked up into the turn three tire barrier all on his own while running third.
He came back with a seventh at Mid-Ohio but he was in the early accident at Pocono and he lost fuel pressure while in the top five at Gateway. While three stops were his call at Belle Isle, Hunter-Reay went with a two-stop strategy at Portland and he put him in second but the need to save fuel limited his chances to attack Takuma Sato. He made one great push late but Sato held on while Hunter-Reay took second. The season ended with Hunter-Reay winning the Sonoma finale from pole position and him finish fourth in the championship, his best result since he took the title in 2012.
Numbers to Remember:
11: Consecutive top ten starting positions to end 2018.
8.7: Hunter-Reay's average finish in 2018, the second-best of his career behind 8.4 in 2010.
6: Podium finishes in 2018, matching Hunter-Reay's most podium finishes in a season with 2012, 2013 and 2014.
9: Hunter-Reay has had either three podium finishes in a season or six podium finishes in a season for nine consecutive seasons. He had three in 2010-11 and 2015-17 and he had six podium finishes in 2012-14 and 2018.
Predictions/Goals:
Say his prayers that the mechanical issues do not bite him like they always seem to do.
Hunter-Reay was great in 2018 and going into 2018 I felt it was a year where Hunter-Reay's role of head of the table at Andretti Autosport was going to be challenge if not taken away by Rossi. That was the case but Hunter-Reay didn't give it up. Rossi might have finished second in the championship but Hunter-Reay had his hand on Rossi's shoulder every step of the way.
He finished fourth in the championship despite having mechanical issues cost him at Long Beach, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Iowa and Gateway and then there were races where he had accidents, most notably Toronto and Pocono. In a lot of these races, Hunter-Reay was in the top ten if not better when it all went wrong and that seems to be the case 95% of the time it goes wrong. Will Power might be the only driver who can challenge Hunter-Reay when it comes to average running position when everything hit the fan and even then Hunter-Reay likely has him beat comfortably.
Hunter-Reay lost the championship by 112 points and that is a gap larger than just making sure the car is reliable. Even if the car keeps running, Hunter-Reay still needs to finish in the top five on a regular basis if he wants to beat Dixon, Rossi, Power, Josef Newgarden and Simon Pagenaud.
The good news for Hunter-Reay is he enters 2019 coming off strong qualifying form in 2018. He started in the top ten in 15 of 17 races with the exceptions being 13th and 14th in the two Indianapolis races. He qualified in the top five in eight of those remaining races and he started in the top five at Gateway because qualifying was rained out. It isn't Will Power's record but it isn't worth trading.
After getting a desperately needed top five championship result in 2018, I think Hunter-Reay will still be strong and the intra-team battle with Rossi will be interesting to watch. Andretti Autosport is strong enough that Rossi and Hunter-Reay fighting will not somehow let Dixon or one of the Penske teams run away with the championship. I think Hunter-Reay will be fighting for the top five again.
Marco Andretti - #98 U.S. Concrete/Curb Honda
Andretti might have started 18th at St. Petersburg but he was in the top ten for most of this race and came home in ninth. Phoenix never quite suited Andretti but he worked his was from 20th to 12th last year. He had another poor starting position at Long Beach but went from 20th to 14th early. The cautions went his way but he did have a solid race car on his way to finishing sixth.
Neither Indianapolis race was all that impressive with finishes of 13th and 12th. Andretti took a surprise pole position in changing conditions at Belle Isle. He led the first stint but could not open a gap over Scott Dixon and after the first pit stop the New Zealander had leapfrogged ahead of Andretti. He fell back a few more positions but still finished fourth. He was not as challenging in the second race with a finish of ninth.
The next three races saw Andretti struggle with finishes of 14th, 11th and 16th with his Texas race hampered after clutch issues on one pit stop. He was running fourth late at Toronto but the team did not get the car full of fuel on the pit stop and a splash-and-go relegated him to tenth. After an 11th at Mid-Ohio, Andretti was running well at Pocono but he couldn't get the same fuel mileage as the other drivers at the front and finished seventh. He was in the top ten at Gateway before a caution a few laps after a pit stop trapped him two laps down.
At Portland, Andretti had nowhere to go on lap one after three cars spun in front of him and he didn't even make it to turn four. Andretti Autosport was on its A-Game at Sonoma and Andretti qualified fourth, stayed in the top five for most of this one and closed the year with a fifth place finish.
Numbers to Remember:
11: Andretti has had 11 lead lap finishes in three consecutive seasons.
9: Andretti's ninth-place championship finish in 2018 was the ninth time he finished in the top ten of the championship in 13 seasons.
14: This could be Andretti's 14th Indianapolis 500 start. Sam Hanks holds the record of most starts before first Indianapolis 500 victory with 13 starts.
0: Andretti was the top Andretti Autosport finish in zero of the 17 races while Rossi led the way with ten, Hunter-Reay was second with six and Veach had one.
Predictions/Goals:
Continue what he was doing in 2018 but focus on the troubled areas.
Andretti is a good driver. He can bring the car home, he get a handful of top ten finishes and if it gets him ninth in the championship every year then good for him but he isn't going to be satisfied with that. Not when Rossi and Hunter-Reay are each winning multiple times a season and are in the top five of the championship.
His qualifying form improved noticeably from 2016 to 2018 going from 17.4 to 12.4 but Andretti still has some more to gain when it comes to qualifying results. His career best average starting position was 8.9 in 2013 and that might be asking a lot for Andretti but three times in 2018 was Andretti the first car to miss out on advancing from round one of road/street course qualifying. Right there is where he could make up one to three positions on the grid. The good news for Andretti is his starting position improved in every race from Iowa, where he started 19th, to Sonoma, where he started fourth. If he can continue that trend into 2019 then he will start the season on a good note.
With improved starting position should come more opportunities to run at the front of the field. There were a few races where Andretti went from the back to the front and if he starts 11th instead of 18th it puts him in a spot where he could be fighting for a top five result instead of settling for eighth or ninth. Those extra few positions go a long way in the championship.
One area Andretti has been consistent on is bringing the car home. Last year, his only retirement was Portland where he was caught in an accident where he had nowhere to go. In 2017, he had two retirements and one was for an electrical issue. He was running at the finish of every race in 2016 and his only retirement in 2015 was an accident at Pocono, which unfortunately came when he was toward the front of the field.
If there is one area Andretti has to work on it is, surprisingly, his oval form. In 2018, his only lead lap finish on an oval was Indianapolis. The only time he finished off the lead lap on a road/street course was his retirement at Portland, where he didn't complete three corners let alone an entire lap. You are not going to finish well when you are a lap down at any of the ovals. There are only five oval races this season but those are valuable places to make up points and we know Andretti Autosport is one of the best teams when it comes to oval programs.
The problem with Andretti is it is hard to project a great improvement. He could finish ninth again in the championship or he could fall to 14th and neither would be surprising but with the depth of the grid it is hard to see him shooting up the championship any higher than 7th or 8th. He had that great year in 2013 and he could replicate that again but it is hard to say he is going to do that before a season starts. We almost have to get through eight or nine races and look at the results then before we could seriously say Andretti will challenge for the top five in the championship.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
2018 Andretti Autosport Review
Wins: 5 (Long Beach, Belle Isle II, Mid-Ohio, Pocono, Sonoma)
Poles: 5 (Long Beach, Belle Isle I, Belle Isle II, Mid-Ohio, Sonoma)
Championship Finishes: 2nd (Alexander Rossi), 4th (Ryan Hunter-Reay), 9th (Marco Andretti), 15th (Zach Veach)
2019 Drivers:
Zach Veach - #26 Group One Thousand One/Gainbridge Honda
Veach's tenure with Andretti Autosport did not start off great. His first two starts ended with him finishing one lap down in 16th position. Third time was the charm and while Veach might not have been solidly in the front from the start he put himself in position to finish fourth and challenge Ed Jones for third down the stretch.
The bad news for Veach is he would hit a rough patch of results and be the worst finishing Andretti Autosport's car in the next eight races, which included a few fires along the way and a great run at Texas, where he was making up ground early but his race ended before the sun had disappeared behind the grandstands after he slapped the wall on the back straightaway.
In the middle of summer, Veach found his groove at Toronto when Andretti Autosport was having its worst race of the season and his seventh place finish earned him the best result of the four drivers. His first time racing in his home state was another good day with Veach coming home in tenth at Mid-Ohio. The final two oval races were standout performances. He was quick all weekend at Pocono and finished sixth while he had to start 16th at Gateway because the field was set by points but Veach charged up to fifth and if qualifying had taken place he might have been contending for the victory from the start.
It appeared the momentum would carry out west and he started sixth at Portland but an off-track excursion derail a good start and he was only ok at Sonoma, ending the season in 14th.
Numbers to Remember:
2.236: Improvement in average finish from the first nine races of 2018 (15.111) to the final eight races of the season (12.875).
4: Veach was one of four drivers to be running at the finish of every race in 2018 along with Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi and Josef Newgarden.
8: Lead lap finishes in 2018, tied for 16th with Charlie Kimball and ahead of only Spencer Pigot (seven) and Max Chilton (five) amongst full-time drivers.
Predictions/Goals:
Keep up what he was doing at the end of 2018.
Veach's season turned around in the second half of the season. He still had bad days. He threw away a top ten finish at Portland when he went off course but that came after four consecutive top ten finishes and two impressive races at Pocono and Gateway but the mistakes were reduced over the course of the season.
There is a sense that Veach could win a race in 2019, especially at an oval. Besides Pocono and Gateway, Veach was quick at Texas and worked his way into the top five before he brushed the wall and forced his team to make repairs. We know Andretti Autosport will have it figured out at the Indianapolis 500. This is a great position for the Ohioan, who seemed to get a handle on ovals in 2018.
One area thing Veach has to improve on or at least prevent from happening again is being the worst Andretti Autosport finisher in races. To no fault of his own, Veach was the worst Andretti Autosport finish in ten of the first 11 races of the season with the exception being his fourth place finish at Long Beach. Some of those results came after rough days but there were other races where he held his own and his three teammates were just better. He had finishes of 12th and 13th at Belle Isle. Andretti Autosport is a good team but what are the odds that it would have three cars in the top ten in both races? And Veach started seventh in that second Belle Isle race.
Could Veach improve and fight for the top ten in the championship? It isn't inconceivable. If Veach starts 2019 how he ended 2018 and keeps that up throughout this season then he will be fighting for tenth. I think Veach moves up a few positions and he will be hanging around tenth. He should aim to get eight to ten top ten finishes and have at least three in the first eight races of the season. When it comes to qualifying, he should aim to lower his average starting position from 14.5 to around 10.5.
Alexander Rossi - #27 NAPA Auto Parts Honda
Rossi was everyone's dark horse for the championship at the start of the season, which means it was no surprise when he worked his way from 12th to second at St. Petersburg and found himself chipping away at the gap to Robert Wickens. We know how it played out. Rossi ran deep into turn one, there was contact, Wickens spun and Rossi dropped to third.
The next race Rossi again was at the front and looked to be in the discussion for race victory but a penalty for contact with a crew member on his first stop dropped him to the rear. It set up one of Rossi's many spectacular performances of the season with the Californian picking people off at a track that otherwise was seen as too difficult for passing. He got back on the lead lap all on his own under green flag conditions. He couldn't get to the lead but he finished third.
Like Veach, third time was the charm for Rossi and from pole position he led 71 of 85 laps on his way to victory and the points lead. He would drop to second in the championship at Barber but he remained second over the next three races, which included a breathtaking performance from 32nd on the grid at the Indianapolis 500 with passes on the outside while many others did not have a handle of their car. Rossi worked his way up to fourth and a third in the first Belle Isle race allowed him to re-take the championship lead.
He gave away at least second in the second Belle Isle race when he locked up while leading and his right front tire subsequently failed. He pulled off a 12th place finish but gave up a lot of points. He couldn't get around Simon Pagenaud for second at Texas and settled for third but he suffered one more blow at Road America when camber issues at the left front force him off the podium and to 16th.
After two mediocre results at Iowa and Toronto, Rossi found his stride with another beat down from pole position at Mid-Ohio and a historic beat down from third on the grid at Pocono. He preached patience at the start of the Gateway race and he was one of the few drivers to stretch fuel on the final stint. He didn't win the race but had enough to finish second.
It appeared the championship was falling into his lap at Portland when Scott Dixon was caught in the first lap accident and then had a pit lane speeding penalty. He was dominating again until the caution came out before a pit stop. This shuffled him back and behind Dixon. Instead of gaining ground he fell a few pegs back after finishing eighth. To make it worse, he shot himself in the foot at Sonoma after he ran into the back of Marco Andretti and cut down his own tire. He was able to get it changed and a caution allowed him to get back on the lead lap. He charged to the front but didn't have enough to catch Dixon.
Numbers to Remember:
11: It has been 11 seasons since the runner-up in a season won the championship the following year. Scott Dixon did it in 2008 after finishing second to Dario Franchitti in 2007.
7: Times has a driver gone from championship runner-up to champion in successive season (Jimmy Bryan 1955, A.J. Foyt 1962, Mario Andretti 1969, Al Unser 1970, Michael Andretti 1991, Bobby Rahal 1992, Scott Dixon 2008).
3: Rossi was never lower than third in the championship during 2018.
Predictions/Goals:
Championship. That is the goal. Rossi had a hand on the Astor Cup in 2018. Scott Dixon didn't blow Rossi out of the water and the title came down to a roll of the dice. Dixon didn't have it easily in his hands and just had to come home in the top 18 at Sonoma. Rossi pushed Dixon to the finale and we are a pair of cautions at Portland away from Rossi heading into Sonoma as the championship leader with the ball in his court.
Rossi made his mistakes. He coughed up points at St. Petersburg, Phoenix, Barber, Belle Isle II and Road America. He all could have finished better at those races. At St. Petersburg, if he doesn't get into Wickens, he finishes second and that is five more points to his total. If he doesn't make contact with a pit crew member at Phoenix, he might win that race. At Barber, he slid off in the wet and went from eighth to 11th. If he settles for second at Belle Isle he scores 20 more points. Road America he had a mechanical issue, those are going to happen.
In the second half of the season, Rossi didn't cough up as many points because of his own mistakes. Toronto is really the only case where he boned himself when he drove into Will Power and had to make a pit stop to change a front wing. Portland was out of his control. He should have won that race but a caution fell before his pit stop. He shot himself in the foot at Sonoma but had five of the seven races listed above gone his way then he likely enters as the championship leader and his entire approach to the start of that Sonoma race is different.
If Rossi limits the mistakes and keeps up the pace he is going to be in the championship fight again, he is going to win three or four or five races and he is going to be on the podium close to ten times.
Ryan Hunter-Reay - #28 DHL Honda
The year started with back-to-back fifth place finishes at St. Petersburg and Phoenix but Long Beach was a rough race for Hunter-Reay. He was forced to stop early to change a front wing and after he found himself back in the top ten Takuma Sato made contact and cut down a tire. He was able to work his back on the lead lap but Sébastien Bourdais' spin in hairpin impeded Hunter-Reay and contact with the barrier ended his race.
He was the second-best car at Barber but a sour engine kept him from being competitive in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This year everything lasted 500 miles for Hunter-Reay at Indianapolis and he finished fifth. He followed it up with a strong performance in the first Belle Isle race but a caution kept his three-stop strategy vaulting him to the lead and he finished in second behind Scott Dixon. In the second race, Hunter-Reay was able to run a three-stop strategy in full and he chased down Rossi, running over a second and a half faster, forcing an error and allowing Hunter-Reay to pick up his first victory since 2016.
Another top five followed at Texas and he was running in Josef Newgarden's shadow all day at Road America but just couldn't find a way through and finished second. Iowa was a difficult race as he had no radio communication throughout almost all of it and the team could not make the necessary adjustments on the car. He remained in the top ten despite this until the left rear camber shims fell out and made his car uncontrollable. Toronto did not go better as Hunter-Reay locked up into the turn three tire barrier all on his own while running third.
He came back with a seventh at Mid-Ohio but he was in the early accident at Pocono and he lost fuel pressure while in the top five at Gateway. While three stops were his call at Belle Isle, Hunter-Reay went with a two-stop strategy at Portland and he put him in second but the need to save fuel limited his chances to attack Takuma Sato. He made one great push late but Sato held on while Hunter-Reay took second. The season ended with Hunter-Reay winning the Sonoma finale from pole position and him finish fourth in the championship, his best result since he took the title in 2012.
Numbers to Remember:
11: Consecutive top ten starting positions to end 2018.
8.7: Hunter-Reay's average finish in 2018, the second-best of his career behind 8.4 in 2010.
6: Podium finishes in 2018, matching Hunter-Reay's most podium finishes in a season with 2012, 2013 and 2014.
9: Hunter-Reay has had either three podium finishes in a season or six podium finishes in a season for nine consecutive seasons. He had three in 2010-11 and 2015-17 and he had six podium finishes in 2012-14 and 2018.
Predictions/Goals:
Say his prayers that the mechanical issues do not bite him like they always seem to do.
Hunter-Reay was great in 2018 and going into 2018 I felt it was a year where Hunter-Reay's role of head of the table at Andretti Autosport was going to be challenge if not taken away by Rossi. That was the case but Hunter-Reay didn't give it up. Rossi might have finished second in the championship but Hunter-Reay had his hand on Rossi's shoulder every step of the way.
He finished fourth in the championship despite having mechanical issues cost him at Long Beach, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Iowa and Gateway and then there were races where he had accidents, most notably Toronto and Pocono. In a lot of these races, Hunter-Reay was in the top ten if not better when it all went wrong and that seems to be the case 95% of the time it goes wrong. Will Power might be the only driver who can challenge Hunter-Reay when it comes to average running position when everything hit the fan and even then Hunter-Reay likely has him beat comfortably.
Hunter-Reay lost the championship by 112 points and that is a gap larger than just making sure the car is reliable. Even if the car keeps running, Hunter-Reay still needs to finish in the top five on a regular basis if he wants to beat Dixon, Rossi, Power, Josef Newgarden and Simon Pagenaud.
The good news for Hunter-Reay is he enters 2019 coming off strong qualifying form in 2018. He started in the top ten in 15 of 17 races with the exceptions being 13th and 14th in the two Indianapolis races. He qualified in the top five in eight of those remaining races and he started in the top five at Gateway because qualifying was rained out. It isn't Will Power's record but it isn't worth trading.
After getting a desperately needed top five championship result in 2018, I think Hunter-Reay will still be strong and the intra-team battle with Rossi will be interesting to watch. Andretti Autosport is strong enough that Rossi and Hunter-Reay fighting will not somehow let Dixon or one of the Penske teams run away with the championship. I think Hunter-Reay will be fighting for the top five again.
Marco Andretti - #98 U.S. Concrete/Curb Honda
Andretti might have started 18th at St. Petersburg but he was in the top ten for most of this race and came home in ninth. Phoenix never quite suited Andretti but he worked his was from 20th to 12th last year. He had another poor starting position at Long Beach but went from 20th to 14th early. The cautions went his way but he did have a solid race car on his way to finishing sixth.
Neither Indianapolis race was all that impressive with finishes of 13th and 12th. Andretti took a surprise pole position in changing conditions at Belle Isle. He led the first stint but could not open a gap over Scott Dixon and after the first pit stop the New Zealander had leapfrogged ahead of Andretti. He fell back a few more positions but still finished fourth. He was not as challenging in the second race with a finish of ninth.
The next three races saw Andretti struggle with finishes of 14th, 11th and 16th with his Texas race hampered after clutch issues on one pit stop. He was running fourth late at Toronto but the team did not get the car full of fuel on the pit stop and a splash-and-go relegated him to tenth. After an 11th at Mid-Ohio, Andretti was running well at Pocono but he couldn't get the same fuel mileage as the other drivers at the front and finished seventh. He was in the top ten at Gateway before a caution a few laps after a pit stop trapped him two laps down.
At Portland, Andretti had nowhere to go on lap one after three cars spun in front of him and he didn't even make it to turn four. Andretti Autosport was on its A-Game at Sonoma and Andretti qualified fourth, stayed in the top five for most of this one and closed the year with a fifth place finish.
Numbers to Remember:
11: Andretti has had 11 lead lap finishes in three consecutive seasons.
9: Andretti's ninth-place championship finish in 2018 was the ninth time he finished in the top ten of the championship in 13 seasons.
14: This could be Andretti's 14th Indianapolis 500 start. Sam Hanks holds the record of most starts before first Indianapolis 500 victory with 13 starts.
0: Andretti was the top Andretti Autosport finish in zero of the 17 races while Rossi led the way with ten, Hunter-Reay was second with six and Veach had one.
Predictions/Goals:
Continue what he was doing in 2018 but focus on the troubled areas.
Andretti is a good driver. He can bring the car home, he get a handful of top ten finishes and if it gets him ninth in the championship every year then good for him but he isn't going to be satisfied with that. Not when Rossi and Hunter-Reay are each winning multiple times a season and are in the top five of the championship.
His qualifying form improved noticeably from 2016 to 2018 going from 17.4 to 12.4 but Andretti still has some more to gain when it comes to qualifying results. His career best average starting position was 8.9 in 2013 and that might be asking a lot for Andretti but three times in 2018 was Andretti the first car to miss out on advancing from round one of road/street course qualifying. Right there is where he could make up one to three positions on the grid. The good news for Andretti is his starting position improved in every race from Iowa, where he started 19th, to Sonoma, where he started fourth. If he can continue that trend into 2019 then he will start the season on a good note.
With improved starting position should come more opportunities to run at the front of the field. There were a few races where Andretti went from the back to the front and if he starts 11th instead of 18th it puts him in a spot where he could be fighting for a top five result instead of settling for eighth or ninth. Those extra few positions go a long way in the championship.
One area Andretti has been consistent on is bringing the car home. Last year, his only retirement was Portland where he was caught in an accident where he had nowhere to go. In 2017, he had two retirements and one was for an electrical issue. He was running at the finish of every race in 2016 and his only retirement in 2015 was an accident at Pocono, which unfortunately came when he was toward the front of the field.
If there is one area Andretti has to work on it is, surprisingly, his oval form. In 2018, his only lead lap finish on an oval was Indianapolis. The only time he finished off the lead lap on a road/street course was his retirement at Portland, where he didn't complete three corners let alone an entire lap. You are not going to finish well when you are a lap down at any of the ovals. There are only five oval races this season but those are valuable places to make up points and we know Andretti Autosport is one of the best teams when it comes to oval programs.
The problem with Andretti is it is hard to project a great improvement. He could finish ninth again in the championship or he could fall to 14th and neither would be surprising but with the depth of the grid it is hard to see him shooting up the championship any higher than 7th or 8th. He had that great year in 2013 and he could replicate that again but it is hard to say he is going to do that before a season starts. We almost have to get through eight or nine races and look at the results then before we could seriously say Andretti will challenge for the top five in the championship.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Thursday, February 21, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Harding Steinbrenner Racing
The seventh IndyCar team preview has us looking at a team that really has turned into a bit of a villain in the latter days of the IndyCar off-season. Harding Steinbrenner Racing opened up the 2018-19 offseason with a bang announcing a two-car effort with 2018 Indy Lights champion Patricio O'Ward and 2018 Indy Lights vice-champion Colton Herta, in essence becoming Andretti Autosport's B-Team. The day before testing commenced from Austin it was announced that O'Ward was leaving the team due to lack of funding and now many have accosted HSR for failing to live up to its own hype. It will have the difficult task of winning back fans with a driver that some have soured on because of the perception that nepotism won out over ability.
2018 Harding Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 9th (Sonoma)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 21st (Gabby Chaves), 29th (Conor Daly), 31st (Patricio O'Ward), 37th (Colton Herta)
2019 Driver:
Colton Herta - #88 Harding Steinbrenner Racing Honda
At 14 years old, Herta was in U.S. F2000 and in 12 starts he had six top ten finishes with his best finish being fifth on two occasions. He was 15th in the championship, finishing ten points behind Austin Cindric despite missing the first two races. In 2015, Herta headed to England and ran in the MSA Formula Championship, now known as the F4 British Championship. He was teammate to current McLaren driver Lando Norris and Norris won the title but Herta finished third in the championship with Ricky Collard splitting the Carlin teammates. Norris won eight races to Herta's four.
The 2016 season was split between BRDC British Formula Three and the Euroformula Open Championship with the latter being his main draw. He was third in that championship behind Leonardo Pulcini and Ferdinand Habsburg with his four victories coming in a weekend sweep at Red Bull Ring, one victory at Jerez and one victory at Barcelona. In England, he made six starts and won a race on the Brands Hatch grand prix circuit while he had a pair of thirds and a sixth at Oulton Park.
Herta returned to American for 2017 to run in Indy Lights and he opened the season with a second and a first at St. Petersburg and a victory in the second Barber race gave him two victories from his first four starts. However, he would not win another race for the remainder of the season despite winning five more pole positions. He did pick up four more podium finishes and was third in the championship behind Indy Lights-experienced drivers Kyle Kaiser and Santiago Urrutia.
For 2018, he had nine podium finishes from the first ten races, including four consecutive victories with a sweep of the races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, the Freedom 100 and a victory at Road America. However, his season turned at Toronto where a collision with the barrier in the first race broke his wrist and he was not 100% in the second race. He would be fine for the rest of the season but could not win another race while O'Ward won four of the final five and took the championship by 44 points over Herta.
Numbers to Remember:
17: Starts it took for Bryan Herta to get his first IndyCar podium finish (second at Cleveland in 1995).
71: Starts it took for Bryan Herta to get his first IndyCar victory (Laguna Seca 1998).
57.57: Percentage of podium finishes in Herta's 33 Indy Lights starts.
24,381: Days between the only victory for the #88 car in American open-wheel racing history and the St. Petersburg season opener. Al Keller won a NASCAR Speedway Division race on June 8, 1952 at Lakewood Speedway outside Atlanta.
Predictions/Goals:
How things have changed after O'Ward and HSR split the day before testing began. I was going to say the goal for Herta should be to beat his teammate because if he does that than he is either getting a lot of good results or something went horribly wrong for O'Ward. Something did go horribly wrong for O'Ward and now Herta doesn't have a measuring stick within the team. He is still going have to a tough rookie class to contend with but while Felix Rosenqvist is with Ganassi, Marcus Ericsson is with Schmidt Peterson and Santino Ferrucci is with Dale Coyne, Herta is still on a fairly new team with no pedigree of success. If Herta had a teammate we would at least get a head-to-head comparison in case the team is off the pace compared to the rest of the grid.
The good news for Herta is the preseason test at Austin shows that Harding Steinbrenner Racing has found some speed. He topped three of the four sessions and was second in the other. Herta ended with the top time of the test. All four rookies had encouraging results at the Austin test but Herta's confidence probably increased the most of the four after an entire offseason of uncertainty and the bad buzz that hung around the team leading into the test.
I was going to write that Herta needs to take back some of the luster. Many pegged Herta to be the championship favorite for Indy Lights in 2018 but O'Ward stole the show. It is not that O'Ward handily beat Herta in Indy Lights. Herta was leading the championship after ten races but one poor weekend at Toronto, where he also broke his wrist, gave O'Ward the championship lead and Herta could not retake momentum in the final five races.
O'Ward did not make mistakes and Herta made plenty of mistakes in his two Indy Lights seasons. Herta cannot afford to do that in IndyCar. There were a lot of races where Herta had the pace but stepped over the boundary and it caught him out. He had better control in 2018 despite the few occasions where he did tear up the car but with the increased power of an IndyCar it would not be a surprise if Herta has a hard time handling it and makes a mistake or two while he tries to get used to wrestling something of this magnitude.
Now that he does not have a teammate Herta should aim for six or seven top ten finishes and six or seven top ten starts but more importantly Herta needs to get laps. He is only going to be 18 years old when the season begins. He could spend another two years in Indy Lights truth be told. There is a lot of career ahead of him and it is important that he completes laps and gains the experience necessary in his youth to set him on the right course for the future. He could be in IndyCar for the next two decades. He is not going to make his career in this season but this year sets up the dominoes.
I was going to write that the one concern with this team carrying into 2019 is funding. Harding Racing was out of money last year and ran with some older equipment compared to the rest of the grid. The partnership with George Michael Steinbrenner IV was thought to have been the saving grace but that only got Herta on the grid and the great ambition to field the top two drivers from Indy Lights proved to be a bust. An added emphasis will be on Herta not getting into accidents especially if the team cannot afford spares. This may reign him in a bit and instead of pushing to qualify in the top six he could be starting races 12th or 13th or he may settle for seventh in a race even if sixth is right in front of him.
The first test from Circuit of the Americas shows the team has pace and Herta's stock shot up immensely after two days. One test can be misleading and there will be rough patches as he is a teenager and there hasn't been a teenager that has entered IndyCar and never put a wheel wrong. Herta will have bad days but he is ready for this level and could turn this opportunity into great success for a developing team.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
2018 Harding Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 9th (Sonoma)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 21st (Gabby Chaves), 29th (Conor Daly), 31st (Patricio O'Ward), 37th (Colton Herta)
2019 Driver:
Colton Herta - #88 Harding Steinbrenner Racing Honda
At 14 years old, Herta was in U.S. F2000 and in 12 starts he had six top ten finishes with his best finish being fifth on two occasions. He was 15th in the championship, finishing ten points behind Austin Cindric despite missing the first two races. In 2015, Herta headed to England and ran in the MSA Formula Championship, now known as the F4 British Championship. He was teammate to current McLaren driver Lando Norris and Norris won the title but Herta finished third in the championship with Ricky Collard splitting the Carlin teammates. Norris won eight races to Herta's four.
The 2016 season was split between BRDC British Formula Three and the Euroformula Open Championship with the latter being his main draw. He was third in that championship behind Leonardo Pulcini and Ferdinand Habsburg with his four victories coming in a weekend sweep at Red Bull Ring, one victory at Jerez and one victory at Barcelona. In England, he made six starts and won a race on the Brands Hatch grand prix circuit while he had a pair of thirds and a sixth at Oulton Park.
Herta returned to American for 2017 to run in Indy Lights and he opened the season with a second and a first at St. Petersburg and a victory in the second Barber race gave him two victories from his first four starts. However, he would not win another race for the remainder of the season despite winning five more pole positions. He did pick up four more podium finishes and was third in the championship behind Indy Lights-experienced drivers Kyle Kaiser and Santiago Urrutia.
For 2018, he had nine podium finishes from the first ten races, including four consecutive victories with a sweep of the races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, the Freedom 100 and a victory at Road America. However, his season turned at Toronto where a collision with the barrier in the first race broke his wrist and he was not 100% in the second race. He would be fine for the rest of the season but could not win another race while O'Ward won four of the final five and took the championship by 44 points over Herta.
Numbers to Remember:
17: Starts it took for Bryan Herta to get his first IndyCar podium finish (second at Cleveland in 1995).
71: Starts it took for Bryan Herta to get his first IndyCar victory (Laguna Seca 1998).
57.57: Percentage of podium finishes in Herta's 33 Indy Lights starts.
24,381: Days between the only victory for the #88 car in American open-wheel racing history and the St. Petersburg season opener. Al Keller won a NASCAR Speedway Division race on June 8, 1952 at Lakewood Speedway outside Atlanta.
Predictions/Goals:
How things have changed after O'Ward and HSR split the day before testing began. I was going to say the goal for Herta should be to beat his teammate because if he does that than he is either getting a lot of good results or something went horribly wrong for O'Ward. Something did go horribly wrong for O'Ward and now Herta doesn't have a measuring stick within the team. He is still going have to a tough rookie class to contend with but while Felix Rosenqvist is with Ganassi, Marcus Ericsson is with Schmidt Peterson and Santino Ferrucci is with Dale Coyne, Herta is still on a fairly new team with no pedigree of success. If Herta had a teammate we would at least get a head-to-head comparison in case the team is off the pace compared to the rest of the grid.
The good news for Herta is the preseason test at Austin shows that Harding Steinbrenner Racing has found some speed. He topped three of the four sessions and was second in the other. Herta ended with the top time of the test. All four rookies had encouraging results at the Austin test but Herta's confidence probably increased the most of the four after an entire offseason of uncertainty and the bad buzz that hung around the team leading into the test.
I was going to write that Herta needs to take back some of the luster. Many pegged Herta to be the championship favorite for Indy Lights in 2018 but O'Ward stole the show. It is not that O'Ward handily beat Herta in Indy Lights. Herta was leading the championship after ten races but one poor weekend at Toronto, where he also broke his wrist, gave O'Ward the championship lead and Herta could not retake momentum in the final five races.
O'Ward did not make mistakes and Herta made plenty of mistakes in his two Indy Lights seasons. Herta cannot afford to do that in IndyCar. There were a lot of races where Herta had the pace but stepped over the boundary and it caught him out. He had better control in 2018 despite the few occasions where he did tear up the car but with the increased power of an IndyCar it would not be a surprise if Herta has a hard time handling it and makes a mistake or two while he tries to get used to wrestling something of this magnitude.
Now that he does not have a teammate Herta should aim for six or seven top ten finishes and six or seven top ten starts but more importantly Herta needs to get laps. He is only going to be 18 years old when the season begins. He could spend another two years in Indy Lights truth be told. There is a lot of career ahead of him and it is important that he completes laps and gains the experience necessary in his youth to set him on the right course for the future. He could be in IndyCar for the next two decades. He is not going to make his career in this season but this year sets up the dominoes.
I was going to write that the one concern with this team carrying into 2019 is funding. Harding Racing was out of money last year and ran with some older equipment compared to the rest of the grid. The partnership with George Michael Steinbrenner IV was thought to have been the saving grace but that only got Herta on the grid and the great ambition to field the top two drivers from Indy Lights proved to be a bust. An added emphasis will be on Herta not getting into accidents especially if the team cannot afford spares. This may reign him in a bit and instead of pushing to qualify in the top six he could be starting races 12th or 13th or he may settle for seventh in a race even if sixth is right in front of him.
The first test from Circuit of the Americas shows the team has pace and Herta's stock shot up immensely after two days. One test can be misleading and there will be rough patches as he is a teenager and there hasn't been a teenager that has entered IndyCar and never put a wheel wrong. Herta will have bad days but he is ready for this level and could turn this opportunity into great success for a developing team.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Ed Carpenter Racing
We have reached the midway point of the 2019 IndyCar team previews. Five are behind us and after this one five will remain. Midway point, let's look at the team with a Midwest-native owner, the first son of IndyCar racing if you will, Ed Carpenter and the team that holds his namesake. Carpenter's team continued to search for identity and Spencer Pigot moved up to be a full-time driver in 2018 while Carpenter paired with Jordan King, fresh off a few years in GP2/Formula Two. There were plenty of promising days and all the drivers had their time at the front of the field but victory again was again out of the grasp of this operation.
2018 Ed Carpenter Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 2nd (Iowa)
Poles: 1 (Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 14th (Spencer Pigot), 20th (Ed Carpenter), 22nd (Jordan King)
2019 Drivers:
Ed Carpenter - #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
The 2018 season started on a down note for Carpenter with his qualifying 18th for the first oval race of the season at Phoenix but he stuck to it in the race, had the pace to move forward and found himself on the lead lap. In the end, he ended up in seventh position; his first top ten finish since seventh the year prior at Phoenix.
After a few weeks off, Carpenter was back in the car for the Indianapolis 500 and as we have become accustomed to seeing, Carpenter was at the sharp end of the grid in qualifying. Carpenter ended up second quickest on the first qualifying day behind only Hélio Castroneves with two other Team Penske cars of Simon Pagenaud and Will Power behind him. The entire Ed Carpenter Racing team made the Fast Nine with Spencer Pigot sixth quickest on day one and Danica Patrick rounding out the top nine.
On Sunday, Carpenter was the penultimate qualifier and put down a four-lap average of 229.618 MPH, nearly a mile per hour quicker than Pagenaud and disrupting an all-Penske front row. Castroneves could not beat the time and for the third time Carpenter ended up as Indianapolis 500 pole-sitter.
Carpenter had one of his best performances in the Indianapolis 500. He led the most laps in the race and he spent 154 of 200 laps in the top five, 186 of 200 in the top ten and his average running position was 3.58. Unfortunately for Carpenter, it was Will Power's day and the Penske driver took the victory while Carpenter came home in second.
Texas was not going well for Carpenter and it was made even worse when he made contact with Robert Wickens, who was in contention for a race victory. At Iowa, Carpenter brushed the wall late, forcing a caution and preventing the race from restarting but he still finished tenth. Carpenter finished off the lead lap in his final two starts of the season with him three laps off Alexander Rossi at Pocono but still finishing tenth and a lap down at Gateway and coming home in 12th.
Numbers to Remember:
11: Consecutive seasons with a lap led. Only Tony Kanaan (20), Scott Dixon (16), Will Power (13) and Graham Rahal (12) have longer active streaks.
4: Carpenter has led more than 50 laps in only four of those 11 seasons.
10.2: Carpenter's average finish in 2018, the second-best of his career behind 9.7 in 2014.
Predictions/Goals:
Carpenter runs five races a year. He just needs to win one of them for the season to be considered a success and we all know the race that matters the most is the Indianapolis 500. After seeing what he did last year, it is not crazy to think he could win that race.
For all the pace Carpenter has had when it comes to Indianapolis 500 qualifying, last year was the first time he put together a strong 500 miles with his own team. Will Power beat him and there is no shame in losing out to a Penske entry.
Besides Indianapolis, Carpenter improved across all the oval races and was able to bring the car home in more races. It was good enough for him to be sixth in oval points on 187, twenty behind Simon Pagenaud and 32 more than Ryan Hunter-Reay and Graham Rahal.
I think the goal should be to crack the top five in oval points and while this team has lost engineering whiz Allen McDonald, who has made a name for qualifying success in the Indianapolis 500, I think Carpenter and the entire team will be competitive on the ovals.
As for the Indianapolis 500, why couldn't he win it? He was runner-up last year and led the most laps. He has led the most laps in two of the seven Indianapolis 500s held during the DW12-era. He has led 139 laps in the Indianapolis 500, four more than Will Power and only two fewer than Marco Andretti. Of those 139 laps, 133 of them have come since 2013. It isn't going to be easy but is absolutely possible.
Ed Jones - #20 Ed Carpenter Racing/Scuderia Corsa Chevrolet
After winning Rookie of the Year in 2017, Jones moved from Dale Coyne Racing to Chip Ganassi Racing for the 2018 season. He started 17th for his first race with the team but he found his way forward and got an eighth place finish. The bad news is he did not hang himself in much glory in the second race where he found himself in second position at Phoenix only to spin in turn three and toss a podium finish out the window. Cautions were in his favor at Long Beach and he got a third place finish after a tough battle with Zach Veach.
Mechanical issues hampered his Barber race and he struggled in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Things did not go well when it came time for the Indianapolis 500. He started 29th, the middle of row ten, and only completed 57 laps before an accident in turn two ended his race.
June was kinder to Jones with top ten finishes in all four races, starting with sixth in the first Belle Isle race and third in the Sunday race from the Motor City, a race he spent most of it at the front and ahead of his teammate Scott Dixon. A pair of ninths at Texas and Road America closed out the month.
The results did not carry over into July and August and four consecutive results outside followed. Gateway was an average race with an eighth place finish. He didn't complete a lap at Portland and tenth at Sonoma was not going to be enough to earn him an extension into 2019.
Numbers to Remember:
1: Jones' average finish improved by one position from 14.2 to 13.2 in 2018.
1.3: Jones' average starting position improved by 1.3 positions from 14.4 to 13.1 in 2018.
8: Top ten finishes in 2018 after five in his rookie season.
Predictions/Goals:
Get back to where he was in 2017 but keep what went right in 2018.
Jones was impressive in his rookie season and it lead to a promotion in his sophomore season. There were plenty of good things that happened at Ganassi but his bad days were bad in 2018 and it didn't help that many of those down performances came toward the end of the season. With his schedule reduced to the 12 road/street course races and the Indianapolis 500, he is going to have less opportunities to accumulate stats. I think he has to aim to get top ten finishes in at least half of his starts and he has to advance to the second round of qualifying in at least five of ten races that will have the three-round qualifying format.
That is asking a lot for Jones but he kind of has to be at that level to earn another full-time seat. A third team in three years isn't going to help and I think expectations have to be kept somewhat low. We do not see drivers with this kind of instability improve year after year. A contemporary example would be Takuma Sato. From 2011-2013 he drove for KV Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and A.J. Foyt Racing and his championship finishes in those three respective seasons were 13th, 14th and 17th. His average finish went from 14.1 to 15.1 to 16.0.
In Jones' favor is the fact he will be in car often despite not being a full-time competitor. He will run the first eight races of the season and then he will have two weeks off between Texas and Road America, a week off between Toronto and Mid-Ohio and then a month between Mid-Ohio and Portland. His oval numbers were not great and if you take just road and street courses into consideration he scored 20.08 points per race. If he keeps up that form through 12 road/street course races that alone will earn him 240 points, more than Max Chilton's total from 2017 and only 13 points behind Matheus Liest and that doesn't take into account Jones getting at least ten points for starting the Indianapolis 500.
I think Jones will do better than Spencer Pigot on a fairly regular basis but if this team is behind from where it was in 2018 than Jones' numbers will not be as impressive.
Spencer Pigot - #21 Autogeek Chevrolet
The full-time career of Spencer Pigot got off to a rough start. Graham Rahal punted him at St. Petersburg in turn one. He still got up to eighth in the running order but a multitude of pit stops forced him to finish one lap down in 15th. His next three finishes would be 14th, 15th and 15th.
Pigot started sixth for the Indianapolis 500 but did not have the pace of his team owner and a pit lane speeding penalty killed his hopes of a top ten finish, dropping him one lap down to 20th in the final results. He got off the snide at Belle Isle with a tenth place finish in race one but he was spun on lap one of race two and his day was over after 21 laps. Let's just say he wasn't a fan of Santino Ferrucci before not being a fan of Ferrucci was cool.
Texas was a better outing with an 11th place finish and a solid day would follow at Road America, where he finished eighth. Iowa was Pigot's best race of the season. He started 18th but he drove to the front and was pushing Josef Newgarden and James Hinchcliffe. Newgarden and Robert Wickens making late pit stops may have elevated Pigot to second but it was a fitting result for his race.
Unfortunately, bad days followed and a promising day at Toronto ended after he banged into the barrier. He could only manage 13th at Mid-Ohio and at Pocono he was spun coming to the green flag and could only complete 16 laps.
A wave around gave Pigot new life at Gateway and an all-out final stint got him a sixth place finish. He may have started 17th at Portland but the lap one accident moved him right into the top ten and he continued his charge to the front. Aggressive moves got Pigot a fourth place finish behind Sébastien Bourdais and directly ahead of Scott Dixon and Simon Pagenaud. However, for a third consecutive year, Pigot's season ended early with a mechanical failure at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
13.6: Average finish in 2018, his best average finish in a season.
41.176: Percentage of lead lap finishes in 2017, the lowest of his career after finishing on the lead lap in 50% of the races in his prior two seasons.
9: Starts outside the top fifteen in 2018.
6: Times starting on row nine in 2018.
Predictions/Goals:
There is a lot of room for improvement in Pigot's second full season. He needs to qualify better. He had only three top ten starts in 2018 and the only time he made it out of the first round of qualifying at a road/street circuit was at Road America. Qualifying wasn't his strong suit in either of his two part-time seasons but he is entering his fourth season and he has to make a big improvement in qualifying if he wants to improve race results.
Looking back and the numbers point to a 14th place championship finish being the best he could have done. His best day was at Iowa and, while he was still going to finish in the top five and he can't be blamed for Newgarden and Wickens making late pit stops hoping for a restart, it does slightly inflate that performance. Better results came late in the season and he needs to carry that form, especially how he ran at Portland to the first portion of the 2019 season.
If there is one bright side for Pigot it is that he was ninth in oval points in 2018 with 142, three more than Wickens, who missed Gateway but five more than James Hinchcliffe, 16 more than Marco Andretti, 19 more than Takuma Sato and 23 more than Sébastien Bourdais.
As successful as Pigot was in the Road to Indy season and as promising as his two part-time seasons were, I would not be surprised if Pigot regressed a bit when it came to results. The grid is getting tougher. I think Zach Veach will be better. I think Santino Ferrucci will have good days. Colton Herta is coming in with a lot of momentum from Indy Lights and a victory at the 24 Hours of Daytona in the GT Le Mans class with BMW. All those drivers are in cars that finish behind Pigot in the champion. If all three of those drivers finished ahead of Pigot in the championship and he repeats his 2018 results then he is going to fall to possibly 17th in the championship.
That seems drastically low but I would not rule it out. Ed Carpenter Racing is still trying to find an identity post-Josef Newgarden and it also lost engineer Jeremy Milless in to Andretti Autosport at the same time. I cannot tell if the team is heading in the right direction but it is still in transition for the third consecutive season.
Fuzzy's Ultra Premium Vodka is gone as a sponsor. Allen McDonald has left the team to go to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. All these changes disrupt small teams and Pigot could end up finishing 14th in the championship again but I also think if the team is struggling to find speed and on top of that be concerned about sponsorship than that distraction could lead to Pigot regressing in results.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
2018 Ed Carpenter Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 2nd (Iowa)
Poles: 1 (Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 14th (Spencer Pigot), 20th (Ed Carpenter), 22nd (Jordan King)
2019 Drivers:
Ed Carpenter - #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
The 2018 season started on a down note for Carpenter with his qualifying 18th for the first oval race of the season at Phoenix but he stuck to it in the race, had the pace to move forward and found himself on the lead lap. In the end, he ended up in seventh position; his first top ten finish since seventh the year prior at Phoenix.
After a few weeks off, Carpenter was back in the car for the Indianapolis 500 and as we have become accustomed to seeing, Carpenter was at the sharp end of the grid in qualifying. Carpenter ended up second quickest on the first qualifying day behind only Hélio Castroneves with two other Team Penske cars of Simon Pagenaud and Will Power behind him. The entire Ed Carpenter Racing team made the Fast Nine with Spencer Pigot sixth quickest on day one and Danica Patrick rounding out the top nine.
On Sunday, Carpenter was the penultimate qualifier and put down a four-lap average of 229.618 MPH, nearly a mile per hour quicker than Pagenaud and disrupting an all-Penske front row. Castroneves could not beat the time and for the third time Carpenter ended up as Indianapolis 500 pole-sitter.
Carpenter had one of his best performances in the Indianapolis 500. He led the most laps in the race and he spent 154 of 200 laps in the top five, 186 of 200 in the top ten and his average running position was 3.58. Unfortunately for Carpenter, it was Will Power's day and the Penske driver took the victory while Carpenter came home in second.
Texas was not going well for Carpenter and it was made even worse when he made contact with Robert Wickens, who was in contention for a race victory. At Iowa, Carpenter brushed the wall late, forcing a caution and preventing the race from restarting but he still finished tenth. Carpenter finished off the lead lap in his final two starts of the season with him three laps off Alexander Rossi at Pocono but still finishing tenth and a lap down at Gateway and coming home in 12th.
Numbers to Remember:
11: Consecutive seasons with a lap led. Only Tony Kanaan (20), Scott Dixon (16), Will Power (13) and Graham Rahal (12) have longer active streaks.
4: Carpenter has led more than 50 laps in only four of those 11 seasons.
10.2: Carpenter's average finish in 2018, the second-best of his career behind 9.7 in 2014.
Predictions/Goals:
Carpenter runs five races a year. He just needs to win one of them for the season to be considered a success and we all know the race that matters the most is the Indianapolis 500. After seeing what he did last year, it is not crazy to think he could win that race.
For all the pace Carpenter has had when it comes to Indianapolis 500 qualifying, last year was the first time he put together a strong 500 miles with his own team. Will Power beat him and there is no shame in losing out to a Penske entry.
Besides Indianapolis, Carpenter improved across all the oval races and was able to bring the car home in more races. It was good enough for him to be sixth in oval points on 187, twenty behind Simon Pagenaud and 32 more than Ryan Hunter-Reay and Graham Rahal.
I think the goal should be to crack the top five in oval points and while this team has lost engineering whiz Allen McDonald, who has made a name for qualifying success in the Indianapolis 500, I think Carpenter and the entire team will be competitive on the ovals.
As for the Indianapolis 500, why couldn't he win it? He was runner-up last year and led the most laps. He has led the most laps in two of the seven Indianapolis 500s held during the DW12-era. He has led 139 laps in the Indianapolis 500, four more than Will Power and only two fewer than Marco Andretti. Of those 139 laps, 133 of them have come since 2013. It isn't going to be easy but is absolutely possible.
Ed Jones - #20 Ed Carpenter Racing/Scuderia Corsa Chevrolet
After winning Rookie of the Year in 2017, Jones moved from Dale Coyne Racing to Chip Ganassi Racing for the 2018 season. He started 17th for his first race with the team but he found his way forward and got an eighth place finish. The bad news is he did not hang himself in much glory in the second race where he found himself in second position at Phoenix only to spin in turn three and toss a podium finish out the window. Cautions were in his favor at Long Beach and he got a third place finish after a tough battle with Zach Veach.
Mechanical issues hampered his Barber race and he struggled in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Things did not go well when it came time for the Indianapolis 500. He started 29th, the middle of row ten, and only completed 57 laps before an accident in turn two ended his race.
June was kinder to Jones with top ten finishes in all four races, starting with sixth in the first Belle Isle race and third in the Sunday race from the Motor City, a race he spent most of it at the front and ahead of his teammate Scott Dixon. A pair of ninths at Texas and Road America closed out the month.
The results did not carry over into July and August and four consecutive results outside followed. Gateway was an average race with an eighth place finish. He didn't complete a lap at Portland and tenth at Sonoma was not going to be enough to earn him an extension into 2019.
Numbers to Remember:
1: Jones' average finish improved by one position from 14.2 to 13.2 in 2018.
1.3: Jones' average starting position improved by 1.3 positions from 14.4 to 13.1 in 2018.
8: Top ten finishes in 2018 after five in his rookie season.
Predictions/Goals:
Get back to where he was in 2017 but keep what went right in 2018.
Jones was impressive in his rookie season and it lead to a promotion in his sophomore season. There were plenty of good things that happened at Ganassi but his bad days were bad in 2018 and it didn't help that many of those down performances came toward the end of the season. With his schedule reduced to the 12 road/street course races and the Indianapolis 500, he is going to have less opportunities to accumulate stats. I think he has to aim to get top ten finishes in at least half of his starts and he has to advance to the second round of qualifying in at least five of ten races that will have the three-round qualifying format.
That is asking a lot for Jones but he kind of has to be at that level to earn another full-time seat. A third team in three years isn't going to help and I think expectations have to be kept somewhat low. We do not see drivers with this kind of instability improve year after year. A contemporary example would be Takuma Sato. From 2011-2013 he drove for KV Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and A.J. Foyt Racing and his championship finishes in those three respective seasons were 13th, 14th and 17th. His average finish went from 14.1 to 15.1 to 16.0.
In Jones' favor is the fact he will be in car often despite not being a full-time competitor. He will run the first eight races of the season and then he will have two weeks off between Texas and Road America, a week off between Toronto and Mid-Ohio and then a month between Mid-Ohio and Portland. His oval numbers were not great and if you take just road and street courses into consideration he scored 20.08 points per race. If he keeps up that form through 12 road/street course races that alone will earn him 240 points, more than Max Chilton's total from 2017 and only 13 points behind Matheus Liest and that doesn't take into account Jones getting at least ten points for starting the Indianapolis 500.
I think Jones will do better than Spencer Pigot on a fairly regular basis but if this team is behind from where it was in 2018 than Jones' numbers will not be as impressive.
Spencer Pigot - #21 Autogeek Chevrolet
The full-time career of Spencer Pigot got off to a rough start. Graham Rahal punted him at St. Petersburg in turn one. He still got up to eighth in the running order but a multitude of pit stops forced him to finish one lap down in 15th. His next three finishes would be 14th, 15th and 15th.
Pigot started sixth for the Indianapolis 500 but did not have the pace of his team owner and a pit lane speeding penalty killed his hopes of a top ten finish, dropping him one lap down to 20th in the final results. He got off the snide at Belle Isle with a tenth place finish in race one but he was spun on lap one of race two and his day was over after 21 laps. Let's just say he wasn't a fan of Santino Ferrucci before not being a fan of Ferrucci was cool.
Texas was a better outing with an 11th place finish and a solid day would follow at Road America, where he finished eighth. Iowa was Pigot's best race of the season. He started 18th but he drove to the front and was pushing Josef Newgarden and James Hinchcliffe. Newgarden and Robert Wickens making late pit stops may have elevated Pigot to second but it was a fitting result for his race.
Unfortunately, bad days followed and a promising day at Toronto ended after he banged into the barrier. He could only manage 13th at Mid-Ohio and at Pocono he was spun coming to the green flag and could only complete 16 laps.
A wave around gave Pigot new life at Gateway and an all-out final stint got him a sixth place finish. He may have started 17th at Portland but the lap one accident moved him right into the top ten and he continued his charge to the front. Aggressive moves got Pigot a fourth place finish behind Sébastien Bourdais and directly ahead of Scott Dixon and Simon Pagenaud. However, for a third consecutive year, Pigot's season ended early with a mechanical failure at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
13.6: Average finish in 2018, his best average finish in a season.
41.176: Percentage of lead lap finishes in 2017, the lowest of his career after finishing on the lead lap in 50% of the races in his prior two seasons.
9: Starts outside the top fifteen in 2018.
6: Times starting on row nine in 2018.
Predictions/Goals:
There is a lot of room for improvement in Pigot's second full season. He needs to qualify better. He had only three top ten starts in 2018 and the only time he made it out of the first round of qualifying at a road/street circuit was at Road America. Qualifying wasn't his strong suit in either of his two part-time seasons but he is entering his fourth season and he has to make a big improvement in qualifying if he wants to improve race results.
Looking back and the numbers point to a 14th place championship finish being the best he could have done. His best day was at Iowa and, while he was still going to finish in the top five and he can't be blamed for Newgarden and Wickens making late pit stops hoping for a restart, it does slightly inflate that performance. Better results came late in the season and he needs to carry that form, especially how he ran at Portland to the first portion of the 2019 season.
If there is one bright side for Pigot it is that he was ninth in oval points in 2018 with 142, three more than Wickens, who missed Gateway but five more than James Hinchcliffe, 16 more than Marco Andretti, 19 more than Takuma Sato and 23 more than Sébastien Bourdais.
As successful as Pigot was in the Road to Indy season and as promising as his two part-time seasons were, I would not be surprised if Pigot regressed a bit when it came to results. The grid is getting tougher. I think Zach Veach will be better. I think Santino Ferrucci will have good days. Colton Herta is coming in with a lot of momentum from Indy Lights and a victory at the 24 Hours of Daytona in the GT Le Mans class with BMW. All those drivers are in cars that finish behind Pigot in the champion. If all three of those drivers finished ahead of Pigot in the championship and he repeats his 2018 results then he is going to fall to possibly 17th in the championship.
That seems drastically low but I would not rule it out. Ed Carpenter Racing is still trying to find an identity post-Josef Newgarden and it also lost engineer Jeremy Milless in to Andretti Autosport at the same time. I cannot tell if the team is heading in the right direction but it is still in transition for the third consecutive season.
Fuzzy's Ultra Premium Vodka is gone as a sponsor. Allen McDonald has left the team to go to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. All these changes disrupt small teams and Pigot could end up finishing 14th in the championship again but I also think if the team is struggling to find speed and on top of that be concerned about sponsorship than that distraction could lead to Pigot regressing in results.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Monday, February 18, 2019
Musings From the Weekend: Where Are We Now?
Just over a month after the passing of J.D. Gibbs, somebody up there watched over Denny Hamlin lead a Joe Gibbs Racing 1-2-3 finish with Kyle Busch and Erik Jones in the Daytona 500. Thursday also would have been J.D. Gibbs' 50th birthday. Prior to Sunday, there were not many happy people heading into the conclusion of Speedweeks from Daytona. Formula E had a lengthy red flag in Mexico City but once that was lifted an outstanding race took place although, Pascal Wehrlein may need some help driving in a straight line. The wintery conditions of Sweden tripped up a few drivers in the second round of the World Rally Championship season. Supercross had its closest finish in series history. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
Where Are We Now?
I originally meant this to be about IndyCar's windscreen and how a year after its initial test at Phoenix we have not seen much progress in public. Scott Dixon was the driver who took the maiden voyage and Josef Newgarden gave it a run at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in May and it hasn't been seen since.
The good news is we got an update on what has been IndyCar's most notable safety innovation. Jon Beekhuis was a guest on last week's Trackside with Curt Cavin and Kevin Lee and everyone's favorite and most informative pit reporter caught us up on the windscreen.
The material used on the prototype had passed the visual test and passed low- and medium-impact tests but it did not pass at an adequate level on the high-impact tests and the series will look to use a polycarbonate material for the windscreen, something similar to what is used on F15s.
There we are. IndyCar had something that was good but not good enough and IndyCar will work with this new material in hopes it passes the high-impact tests.
It is a bit of back to square one and it feels like regression but the series is still working on it and instead of putting out something that had flaws and was not up to standards, IndyCar will work on a solution that is more foolproof. Hopefully there will be more tests over the season and we will get closer to this thing becoming a reality, whether that is in 2020 or 2021.
The good news is we got an update on what has been IndyCar's most notable safety innovation. Jon Beekhuis was a guest on last week's Trackside with Curt Cavin and Kevin Lee and everyone's favorite and most informative pit reporter caught us up on the windscreen.
The material used on the prototype had passed the visual test and passed low- and medium-impact tests but it did not pass at an adequate level on the high-impact tests and the series will look to use a polycarbonate material for the windscreen, something similar to what is used on F15s.
There we are. IndyCar had something that was good but not good enough and IndyCar will work with this new material in hopes it passes the high-impact tests.
It is a bit of back to square one and it feels like regression but the series is still working on it and instead of putting out something that had flaws and was not up to standards, IndyCar will work on a solution that is more foolproof. Hopefully there will be more tests over the season and we will get closer to this thing becoming a reality, whether that is in 2020 or 2021.
Great.
But more happened in IndyCar over the last week and, while I do not want to make these observations a state of the series, I do think it is important to take stock of where IndyCar is and keep our expectations in line.
The unexpected divorce between Patricio O'Ward and Harding Steinbrenner Racing on the eve of the first test session of the season unsettled many and understandably a lot of people were upset at the news. Part of the reason was the reigning Indy Lights champion had a promotion to a full-time IndyCar season disappear in a snap but another part was everything was wrapped up and presented with a bow back in September.
On the final day of summer, O'Ward and Colton Herta were presented as Harding Steinbrenner Racing's two drivers for the 2019 IndyCar season. It was not presented with a disclaimer, "if the funding is found." There was no qualifying language. It came off as a certainty and it was refreshing to hear such news days after one season had ended.
Everything seemed signed, sealed and delivered and when preparations for the 2019 season were on the precipice of getting underway it became public that O'Ward did not have a ride underneath him and his only option was to request a release and seeking another option for a full-time ride.
It is similar to when we thought Tony Kanaan was going to drive for de Ferran Dragon Racing for the 2011 season. It was announced late in 2010 and we went throughout the winter expecting Kanaan to be in a blue and silver Air Force-sponsored car at St. Petersburg. Then the pieces fell a part. Kanaan was fortunate and KV Racing stepped up with Lotus money and got the Brazilian a ride and that was during the less optimistic times of pre-DW12-era. O'Ward doesn't appear he will be as fortunate.
Many bemoaned when O'Ward lost his ride that nothing is better in IndyCar. The series does not have a mammoth fan base, the television ratings are puny and sponsors do not have a lot of reasons to enter and stay long.
The truth is things can be better but not perfect and that is where IndyCar is at and has been for quite sometime.
We are always going to have sponsorship struggles and we are always going to have to be on our toes. Gone are the days of just expecting another sponsor to step up and fill a void when one decides to move on. Nerviness is the constant state of IndyCar and it may suck but we know it is going to be this way. We know teams need sponsors and when one is announcing its end we know it will take a lot of work for another to arise.
It is likely we will never have never-ending calmness again in IndyCar. It is always going to be tough. There is always going to be a concern over sponsors, whether it is a race car or a race or the title sponsor. We know the ice is thin and no one is safe. It doesn't matter how many races or championships you win. Everyone has the same perilous road ahead.
None of that sounds good but IndyCar is in a better place even if it seems like things are no better than at any point over the last decade.
IndyCar was able to find another title sponsor in NTT and Firestone extended its deal with the series for seven years. The series has returned to Road America, Portland and Laguna Seca. The series has two engine manufactures, both of which seem happy in the series and provide equal resources and in turn allows for great competition. Though not great, television ratings have been creeping up and the series has a new television deal with NBC Sports, which will show eight of 17 races on network television, the most for the series since reunification.
While Harding Steinbrenner Racing might not have two full-time cars, IndyCar has Michael Shank Racing increasing its participation in the series while DragonSpeed will join the series and McLaren of all names has been dabbling in the series and could increase its participation in the near future.
When it comes to drivers, the grid is deep with talent from familiar faces of Scott Dixon, Sébastien Bourdais, Tony Kanaan, Will Power, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Graham Rahal to the next wave of IndyCar drivers in Alexander Rossi, Josef Newgarden, Zach Veach, Felix Rosenqvist and Colton Herta. While O'Ward will likely not be full-time and that in of itself is a shame, he still has his scholarship money, which will get him at least three races, including the Indianapolis 500.
Speaking of the Indianapolis 500, after spending over a decade being an event that was a shell of its previous glory, it has returned to the biggest race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and in the last ten years we have seen Carb Day – Carb Day people of all days – rise to the second-biggest racing day at the Speedway! The schedule has other successful events. Long Beach is still going strong and has a new title sponsor. IndyCar has found a home in Barber Motorsports Park. Road America returned to the schedule and people have filled that place. The crowd at Mid-Ohio is staggering. Gateway returned almost out of nowhere and has been an encouraging sight. There was a line to get into Portland last year for its first race in 11 years! And now IndyCar will go to Austin. There is no guarantee that race will be a success but it is a new place for IndyCar and it is worth the shot.
Yes, there are going to be tough times. There are going to be good drivers that can't get a shot and there will be sponsors that come and go and there will be races that can't seem to draw a crowd regardless of what the racing is like. There are going to be the bad stories, the ones that can ruin a day and make you worry and IndyCar fans have experienced a lot of those since 1996. I can understand why it is difficult not to be cynical.
We have to remember that things are looking up. Just because things are looking up does not mean it will be easy and turmoil will never enter the series again. It might be better but it isn't linear. Just because Kanaan found a ride in the days leading up to St. Petersburg in 2011 and Ryan Hunter-Reay had a similar situations in 2009 and 2010 doesn't mean if O'Ward doesn't get a full-time ride in the next three weeks before St. Petersburg then things are worse. They are different times and things can be better even if the positive events of the past do not repeat in the present. We have to take the bad with the good and this is one of those times.
But more happened in IndyCar over the last week and, while I do not want to make these observations a state of the series, I do think it is important to take stock of where IndyCar is and keep our expectations in line.
The unexpected divorce between Patricio O'Ward and Harding Steinbrenner Racing on the eve of the first test session of the season unsettled many and understandably a lot of people were upset at the news. Part of the reason was the reigning Indy Lights champion had a promotion to a full-time IndyCar season disappear in a snap but another part was everything was wrapped up and presented with a bow back in September.
On the final day of summer, O'Ward and Colton Herta were presented as Harding Steinbrenner Racing's two drivers for the 2019 IndyCar season. It was not presented with a disclaimer, "if the funding is found." There was no qualifying language. It came off as a certainty and it was refreshing to hear such news days after one season had ended.
Everything seemed signed, sealed and delivered and when preparations for the 2019 season were on the precipice of getting underway it became public that O'Ward did not have a ride underneath him and his only option was to request a release and seeking another option for a full-time ride.
It is similar to when we thought Tony Kanaan was going to drive for de Ferran Dragon Racing for the 2011 season. It was announced late in 2010 and we went throughout the winter expecting Kanaan to be in a blue and silver Air Force-sponsored car at St. Petersburg. Then the pieces fell a part. Kanaan was fortunate and KV Racing stepped up with Lotus money and got the Brazilian a ride and that was during the less optimistic times of pre-DW12-era. O'Ward doesn't appear he will be as fortunate.
Many bemoaned when O'Ward lost his ride that nothing is better in IndyCar. The series does not have a mammoth fan base, the television ratings are puny and sponsors do not have a lot of reasons to enter and stay long.
The truth is things can be better but not perfect and that is where IndyCar is at and has been for quite sometime.
We are always going to have sponsorship struggles and we are always going to have to be on our toes. Gone are the days of just expecting another sponsor to step up and fill a void when one decides to move on. Nerviness is the constant state of IndyCar and it may suck but we know it is going to be this way. We know teams need sponsors and when one is announcing its end we know it will take a lot of work for another to arise.
It is likely we will never have never-ending calmness again in IndyCar. It is always going to be tough. There is always going to be a concern over sponsors, whether it is a race car or a race or the title sponsor. We know the ice is thin and no one is safe. It doesn't matter how many races or championships you win. Everyone has the same perilous road ahead.
None of that sounds good but IndyCar is in a better place even if it seems like things are no better than at any point over the last decade.
IndyCar was able to find another title sponsor in NTT and Firestone extended its deal with the series for seven years. The series has returned to Road America, Portland and Laguna Seca. The series has two engine manufactures, both of which seem happy in the series and provide equal resources and in turn allows for great competition. Though not great, television ratings have been creeping up and the series has a new television deal with NBC Sports, which will show eight of 17 races on network television, the most for the series since reunification.
While Harding Steinbrenner Racing might not have two full-time cars, IndyCar has Michael Shank Racing increasing its participation in the series while DragonSpeed will join the series and McLaren of all names has been dabbling in the series and could increase its participation in the near future.
When it comes to drivers, the grid is deep with talent from familiar faces of Scott Dixon, Sébastien Bourdais, Tony Kanaan, Will Power, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Graham Rahal to the next wave of IndyCar drivers in Alexander Rossi, Josef Newgarden, Zach Veach, Felix Rosenqvist and Colton Herta. While O'Ward will likely not be full-time and that in of itself is a shame, he still has his scholarship money, which will get him at least three races, including the Indianapolis 500.
Speaking of the Indianapolis 500, after spending over a decade being an event that was a shell of its previous glory, it has returned to the biggest race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and in the last ten years we have seen Carb Day – Carb Day people of all days – rise to the second-biggest racing day at the Speedway! The schedule has other successful events. Long Beach is still going strong and has a new title sponsor. IndyCar has found a home in Barber Motorsports Park. Road America returned to the schedule and people have filled that place. The crowd at Mid-Ohio is staggering. Gateway returned almost out of nowhere and has been an encouraging sight. There was a line to get into Portland last year for its first race in 11 years! And now IndyCar will go to Austin. There is no guarantee that race will be a success but it is a new place for IndyCar and it is worth the shot.
Yes, there are going to be tough times. There are going to be good drivers that can't get a shot and there will be sponsors that come and go and there will be races that can't seem to draw a crowd regardless of what the racing is like. There are going to be the bad stories, the ones that can ruin a day and make you worry and IndyCar fans have experienced a lot of those since 1996. I can understand why it is difficult not to be cynical.
We have to remember that things are looking up. Just because things are looking up does not mean it will be easy and turmoil will never enter the series again. It might be better but it isn't linear. Just because Kanaan found a ride in the days leading up to St. Petersburg in 2011 and Ryan Hunter-Reay had a similar situations in 2009 and 2010 doesn't mean if O'Ward doesn't get a full-time ride in the next three weeks before St. Petersburg then things are worse. They are different times and things can be better even if the positive events of the past do not repeat in the present. We have to take the bad with the good and this is one of those times.
So... where are we now?
For all the crap IndyCar has gone through and those days where it seemed the only way everyone could communicate was through bickering and there was only anger we have come far, farther than many thought. It wasn't that long ago many expected IndyCar to die. It seemed to be the only path the series was on.
After all those years of uncertainty and fluid identity IndyCar is still alive. It has found its legs. It has gotten out of bed and entered the world, full of its pitfalls but also full of extraordinary people that the series brings together into a community and it has taken a role where something simple and otherwise small in the grand scheme of life can provide happiness in the lives of many.
It may be tough and at times we may get down but IndyCar is in a good place.
After all those years of uncertainty and fluid identity IndyCar is still alive. It has found its legs. It has gotten out of bed and entered the world, full of its pitfalls but also full of extraordinary people that the series brings together into a community and it has taken a role where something simple and otherwise small in the grand scheme of life can provide happiness in the lives of many.
It may be tough and at times we may get down but IndyCar is in a good place.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Denny Hamlin but did you know...
Michael Annett won the NASCAR Grand National Series from Daytona, his first career victory in the series. Austin Hill won the Truck race, his first career victory in the series.
Lucas di Grassi won the Mexico City ePrix.
Ott Tänak won Rally Sweden.
Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Arlington by 0.02 seconds over Ken Roczen, the closest finish in Supercross history.
Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR moves north to Atlanta
The Asian Le Mans Series concludes its 2018-19 season in Sepang.
Jonathan Rea's inevitable fifth consecutive Superbike championship season begins from Phillip Island.
Supercross has its first race in the Eastern Time Zone at Ford Field in Detroit.
Friday, February 15, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Schmidt Peterson Motorsports
The fifth 2019 IndyCar team preview moves back to the Honda camp and the team with the most vocal aspirations heading into the new season: Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. After experiencing both polar ends of emotions in 2018, the team heads into 2019 with increased funding from Arrow Electronics and believes it is ready to ascended to the level of Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport and making the Big Three a Big Four. With Robert Wickens continuing his recovery, the team has brought in Marcus Ericsson in to team with James Hinchcliffe.
2018 Review
Wins: 1 (Iowa)
Poles: 1 (St. Petersburg)
Championship Finishes: 10th (James Hinchcliffe), 11th (Robert Wickens)
2019 Drivers:
James Hinchcliffe - #5 Arrow Honda
While Robert Wickens stole the headlines at St. Petersburg, Hinchcliffe did well for himself, qualifying seventh and finishing fourth in a race where he was solidly in the top ten. SPM had a great shot at victory at Phoenix with Wickens impressing many in his first oval start and both he and Hinchcliffe were fighting for spots on the podium. Unfortunately, neither driver came in for tires under the final caution and while Wickens held on for second, Hinchcliffe slid back to sixth.
Hinchcliffe would finish ninth at Long Beach and followed that up with a third at Barber, a race he spent much at the front. A seventh in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis made it five top ten finishes from the first five races and left him fifth in the championship but the driver of the #5 Honda would have the season turn on its ear.
Time was not on his side for one day in May and Hinchcliffe failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. He would finish outside the top ten in both Belle Isle races and in three weeks he dropped from fifth to 11th in the championship.
The tide turned in Texas with a fourth place finish from 15th and he went from 16th to tenth at Road America. He started 11th at Iowa but charged to the front and put himself in contention. When cautions fell his way and Josef Newgarden got caught in lapped traffic, Hinchcliffe pounced, took the lead and ran away. Time was on the Canadian's side this day with a late caution preventing the race from restarting and gave Hinchcliffe his sixth career victory. He followed it up with a fourth place finish at Toronto.
The bad news is another year ended with a string of poor results. Hinchcliffe did not score a top ten finish over the final five races of the season but held on for tenth in the championship on tiebreaker over Wickens.
Numbers to Remember:
7: Consecutive seasons with a podium finish.
62.29: Percentage of lead lap finishes in 122 starts, that is eighth best among the 12 regular drivers with over 100 IndyCar starts ahead of only Marco Andretti (60.829%), Ryan Hunter-Reay (57.446%), Charlie Kimball (50.746%) and Takuma Sato (44.736%).
20: Hinchcliffe has led at least 20 laps in all eight of his IndyCar seasons.
2: Only twice has Hinchcliffe led more than 100 laps in a season and in both of those seasons he lead over 100 laps in one race.
Predictions/Goals:
This is getting tiring but it is the same story every year for Hinchcliffe. He has to finish better than eighth in the championship. He has never finished better than eighth in the championship. Hinchcliffe needs to do that to justify anyone saying he is one of the best in IndyCar. You cannot be considered one of the best when you have never cracked the top seven in the championship. Heck, you have to crack at least the top five to be considered one of the best. He may have a handful of race victories but he has to put together a complete season.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports needs the improvement in championship finish just as much as Hinchcliffe does. This team is talking about becoming one of the Big Four in IndyCar with Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport after Arrow increased its funding into the team. The problem is SPM's result have been sliding backward compared to the Simon Pagenaud-era. Pagenaud was in the top five of the championship in all three of his seasons at SPM. Since Pagenaud left, the team has only cracked the top ten once and that was last year when Hinchcliffe finished 10th.
The 2018 season started off well for Hinchcliffe but he has to have a more balanced season. Last year, he ended the season with five consecutive finishes outside the top ten. The year before that he finished outside the top ten in four of the final five races with his best result being eighth. He has never finished every race in a season and I think he has to aim for that and as hard as it may be and he has to finish on the lead lap more. Last year, he had 13 lead lap finishes out of 16 starts. At 81.25%, it is his best lead lap finishing percentage in his IndyCar career (minus 2013 when he only started five races) and it is the only time he finished on the lead lap in over 75% of his starts.
I think if Hinchcliffe is going to aim for a career-best championship finish, I think he has to aim for career-best numbers in every category. I don't think he will be able to get four victories but the most top five finishes he has had in a season is six and the most top ten finishes is 11. It will be tough to get but Robert Wickens had seven top five finishes and ten top ten finishes and missed the final three races. It is doable for Hinchcliffe. This grid keeps getting better and Hinchcliffe has to find another level.
Marcus Ericsson - #7 Arrow Honda
After five seasons in Formula One, split between Caterham and Sauber, Ericsson moves to IndyCar. The results leave little to brag about. Ericsson made 97 starts in Formula One and amassed a grand total of 18 points in his career. He had three scoreless seasons and scored nine points in 2015 and 2018. His best finish was eight in the 2015 Australian Grand Prix, his 17th career start and his first for Sauber.
Diving back into his junior formula career, Ericsson was the Formula BMW UK champion in 2007 and in 2008 he finished fifth in the British Formula Three Championship behind Jaime Alguersauri, Oliver Turvey, Brendon Hartley and Sergio Pérez but he finished ahead of the likes of Nick Tandy and Max Chilton. He went to Japan in 2009 and won the All-Japan Formula 3 Championship but also made six starts in British Formula Three, where he won twice beating drivers such as eventual champion Daniel Ricciardo, Renger van der Zande, eventual IndyCar race winner Carlos Huertas and Chilton. At Macau that year, he finished second to future Indy Lights champions Jean-Karl Vernay in the qualifying race and fourth in the Macau Grand Prix behind Edoardo Mortara, Vernay and Sam Bird but five seconds ahead of Valtteri Bottas.
The 2010 season would mark the start of four years in GP2. He won in his first season at Valencia but finished 17th in the championship on 11 points. He would improve to tenth in the championship and score 25 points the following year but not win a race. He would win the feature race at Spa-Francorchamps in 2012 and had feature race podium finishes at Monaco, Valencia and Monza in a season that saw him finish eighth in the championship. He won two pole positions early in the 2013 season but he did not finish in the points in the first nine races. He won the feature race at the Nürburgring and score four more podium finishes, salvaging sixth in the championship.
Numbers to Remember:
1,954: Number of days between Ericsson's last top five finish, a third in the GP2 feature race at Abu Dhabi on November 2, 2013 and the St. Petersburg season opener. Alexander Rossi won that race with Jolyon Palmer in second.
2,073: Number of days between Ericsson's most recent victory at the GP2 feature race at the Nürburgring on July 6, 2013 and the St. Petersburg season opener.
2,080: Number of days between Ericsson's most recent pole position for the GP2 feature race at Silverstone on June 29, 2013 and the St. Petersburg season opener.
Predictions/Goals:
This is a tough one to call. Based on his Formula One experience, Ericsson does not have a lot to sell on paper but going back to his junior formula results and taking into consideration that his results did improve greatly in 2018 after Sauber received increased funding from Alfa Romeo, he could be a sleeper in 2019.
It helps and hurts that he is stepping into the vacancy left after Robert Wickens was sidelined. It helps because he knows this is a car that can compete at the front and contend for race victories. It hurts because Wickens set the bar that damn high. The one concern is Piers Phillips has left this team so there will be a bit of a shake up on the pit stand but at the same time Ericsson didn't work with Phillips so there was no relationship there and he is going to be starting fresh anyway.
I think Ericsson will do well. Not Wickens level but better than how Zach Veach did last year. I think he could put up numbers similar to Rubens Barrichello's only IndyCar season in 2012. Barrichello came into IndyCar and had good results but never any bad days. The results got better as the year went along. The year started with a pair of top ten finishes at Barber and Long Beach and he was respectable in the Indianapolis 500 after starting tenth and finishing 11th. He qualified third at Milwaukee and finished tenth in that race; he finished seventh at Iowa, fourth at Sonoma and fifth at Baltimore. He had seven top ten finishes from 14 starts and finished 11th in the championship.
If Ericsson matches Barrichello's number from 2012 I think that is a big success for him and he will likely have a sophomore season, unlike Barrichello, which parenthetically Barrichello should have had. Seven top ten finishes is not unrealistic for Ericsson. It is asking a lot but we should remember we have not seen a Formula One driver come into IndyCar and just go straight to the front in recent seasons. Barrichello was excellent in his one season but he never had a stranglehold on a race and he never had everyone thinking he was going to be the dominant driver at the front of the pack entering a race. Max Chilton came into IndyCar and had a lot of growing pains and that was after a year in Indy Lights to get acclimated to most of the tracks.
My one concern for Ericsson is while he had success in GP2, he had plenty of lackluster results. In 84 GP2 starts, he finished outside the points in 54 of them and if you add his eight GP2 Asis Series starts, he failed to finish in the points in 60 of 92 starts. That isn't taking into consideration that he finished in the points in only 11 of 97 Formula One races. In nine seasons, he finished outside the points of a combined 146 of 189 races. That is not a good hit rate and part of that is because Ericsson was in bad cars in Formula One but focusing on just Ericsson's GP2 results, they can best be described as streaky. SPM already has one streaky driver in Hinchcliffe. It cannot afford Ericsson to have four or five strong results and then have seven or eight consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen.
Ericsson should aim to be on the cusp of the top ten of the championship. I think Ericsson will have his struggles but I think there will be one or two road courses where he qualifies in the top ten, possibly even the top six and stays towards the front, possibly getting a top five or podium finish.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports is shooting high and while it is now or never for Hinchcliffe, the team does have a bit of a project with Ericsson. It is kind of two conflicting mindsets. Hinchcliffe has to get results but Ericsson has to learn and get mileage. While it hopes to create the Big Four, SPM has a lot of competition for that honor but in all honesty it is going to take more than one good year to reach that aspiration. Cementing Big Four status must come after multiple championship seasons and victories. At its best, SPM will just have laid the foundation for a Big Four push this year.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
2018 Review
Wins: 1 (Iowa)
Poles: 1 (St. Petersburg)
Championship Finishes: 10th (James Hinchcliffe), 11th (Robert Wickens)
2019 Drivers:
James Hinchcliffe - #5 Arrow Honda
While Robert Wickens stole the headlines at St. Petersburg, Hinchcliffe did well for himself, qualifying seventh and finishing fourth in a race where he was solidly in the top ten. SPM had a great shot at victory at Phoenix with Wickens impressing many in his first oval start and both he and Hinchcliffe were fighting for spots on the podium. Unfortunately, neither driver came in for tires under the final caution and while Wickens held on for second, Hinchcliffe slid back to sixth.
Hinchcliffe would finish ninth at Long Beach and followed that up with a third at Barber, a race he spent much at the front. A seventh in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis made it five top ten finishes from the first five races and left him fifth in the championship but the driver of the #5 Honda would have the season turn on its ear.
Time was not on his side for one day in May and Hinchcliffe failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. He would finish outside the top ten in both Belle Isle races and in three weeks he dropped from fifth to 11th in the championship.
The tide turned in Texas with a fourth place finish from 15th and he went from 16th to tenth at Road America. He started 11th at Iowa but charged to the front and put himself in contention. When cautions fell his way and Josef Newgarden got caught in lapped traffic, Hinchcliffe pounced, took the lead and ran away. Time was on the Canadian's side this day with a late caution preventing the race from restarting and gave Hinchcliffe his sixth career victory. He followed it up with a fourth place finish at Toronto.
The bad news is another year ended with a string of poor results. Hinchcliffe did not score a top ten finish over the final five races of the season but held on for tenth in the championship on tiebreaker over Wickens.
Numbers to Remember:
7: Consecutive seasons with a podium finish.
62.29: Percentage of lead lap finishes in 122 starts, that is eighth best among the 12 regular drivers with over 100 IndyCar starts ahead of only Marco Andretti (60.829%), Ryan Hunter-Reay (57.446%), Charlie Kimball (50.746%) and Takuma Sato (44.736%).
20: Hinchcliffe has led at least 20 laps in all eight of his IndyCar seasons.
2: Only twice has Hinchcliffe led more than 100 laps in a season and in both of those seasons he lead over 100 laps in one race.
Predictions/Goals:
This is getting tiring but it is the same story every year for Hinchcliffe. He has to finish better than eighth in the championship. He has never finished better than eighth in the championship. Hinchcliffe needs to do that to justify anyone saying he is one of the best in IndyCar. You cannot be considered one of the best when you have never cracked the top seven in the championship. Heck, you have to crack at least the top five to be considered one of the best. He may have a handful of race victories but he has to put together a complete season.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports needs the improvement in championship finish just as much as Hinchcliffe does. This team is talking about becoming one of the Big Four in IndyCar with Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport after Arrow increased its funding into the team. The problem is SPM's result have been sliding backward compared to the Simon Pagenaud-era. Pagenaud was in the top five of the championship in all three of his seasons at SPM. Since Pagenaud left, the team has only cracked the top ten once and that was last year when Hinchcliffe finished 10th.
The 2018 season started off well for Hinchcliffe but he has to have a more balanced season. Last year, he ended the season with five consecutive finishes outside the top ten. The year before that he finished outside the top ten in four of the final five races with his best result being eighth. He has never finished every race in a season and I think he has to aim for that and as hard as it may be and he has to finish on the lead lap more. Last year, he had 13 lead lap finishes out of 16 starts. At 81.25%, it is his best lead lap finishing percentage in his IndyCar career (minus 2013 when he only started five races) and it is the only time he finished on the lead lap in over 75% of his starts.
I think if Hinchcliffe is going to aim for a career-best championship finish, I think he has to aim for career-best numbers in every category. I don't think he will be able to get four victories but the most top five finishes he has had in a season is six and the most top ten finishes is 11. It will be tough to get but Robert Wickens had seven top five finishes and ten top ten finishes and missed the final three races. It is doable for Hinchcliffe. This grid keeps getting better and Hinchcliffe has to find another level.
Marcus Ericsson - #7 Arrow Honda
After five seasons in Formula One, split between Caterham and Sauber, Ericsson moves to IndyCar. The results leave little to brag about. Ericsson made 97 starts in Formula One and amassed a grand total of 18 points in his career. He had three scoreless seasons and scored nine points in 2015 and 2018. His best finish was eight in the 2015 Australian Grand Prix, his 17th career start and his first for Sauber.
Diving back into his junior formula career, Ericsson was the Formula BMW UK champion in 2007 and in 2008 he finished fifth in the British Formula Three Championship behind Jaime Alguersauri, Oliver Turvey, Brendon Hartley and Sergio Pérez but he finished ahead of the likes of Nick Tandy and Max Chilton. He went to Japan in 2009 and won the All-Japan Formula 3 Championship but also made six starts in British Formula Three, where he won twice beating drivers such as eventual champion Daniel Ricciardo, Renger van der Zande, eventual IndyCar race winner Carlos Huertas and Chilton. At Macau that year, he finished second to future Indy Lights champions Jean-Karl Vernay in the qualifying race and fourth in the Macau Grand Prix behind Edoardo Mortara, Vernay and Sam Bird but five seconds ahead of Valtteri Bottas.
The 2010 season would mark the start of four years in GP2. He won in his first season at Valencia but finished 17th in the championship on 11 points. He would improve to tenth in the championship and score 25 points the following year but not win a race. He would win the feature race at Spa-Francorchamps in 2012 and had feature race podium finishes at Monaco, Valencia and Monza in a season that saw him finish eighth in the championship. He won two pole positions early in the 2013 season but he did not finish in the points in the first nine races. He won the feature race at the Nürburgring and score four more podium finishes, salvaging sixth in the championship.
Numbers to Remember:
1,954: Number of days between Ericsson's last top five finish, a third in the GP2 feature race at Abu Dhabi on November 2, 2013 and the St. Petersburg season opener. Alexander Rossi won that race with Jolyon Palmer in second.
2,073: Number of days between Ericsson's most recent victory at the GP2 feature race at the Nürburgring on July 6, 2013 and the St. Petersburg season opener.
2,080: Number of days between Ericsson's most recent pole position for the GP2 feature race at Silverstone on June 29, 2013 and the St. Petersburg season opener.
Predictions/Goals:
This is a tough one to call. Based on his Formula One experience, Ericsson does not have a lot to sell on paper but going back to his junior formula results and taking into consideration that his results did improve greatly in 2018 after Sauber received increased funding from Alfa Romeo, he could be a sleeper in 2019.
It helps and hurts that he is stepping into the vacancy left after Robert Wickens was sidelined. It helps because he knows this is a car that can compete at the front and contend for race victories. It hurts because Wickens set the bar that damn high. The one concern is Piers Phillips has left this team so there will be a bit of a shake up on the pit stand but at the same time Ericsson didn't work with Phillips so there was no relationship there and he is going to be starting fresh anyway.
I think Ericsson will do well. Not Wickens level but better than how Zach Veach did last year. I think he could put up numbers similar to Rubens Barrichello's only IndyCar season in 2012. Barrichello came into IndyCar and had good results but never any bad days. The results got better as the year went along. The year started with a pair of top ten finishes at Barber and Long Beach and he was respectable in the Indianapolis 500 after starting tenth and finishing 11th. He qualified third at Milwaukee and finished tenth in that race; he finished seventh at Iowa, fourth at Sonoma and fifth at Baltimore. He had seven top ten finishes from 14 starts and finished 11th in the championship.
If Ericsson matches Barrichello's number from 2012 I think that is a big success for him and he will likely have a sophomore season, unlike Barrichello, which parenthetically Barrichello should have had. Seven top ten finishes is not unrealistic for Ericsson. It is asking a lot but we should remember we have not seen a Formula One driver come into IndyCar and just go straight to the front in recent seasons. Barrichello was excellent in his one season but he never had a stranglehold on a race and he never had everyone thinking he was going to be the dominant driver at the front of the pack entering a race. Max Chilton came into IndyCar and had a lot of growing pains and that was after a year in Indy Lights to get acclimated to most of the tracks.
My one concern for Ericsson is while he had success in GP2, he had plenty of lackluster results. In 84 GP2 starts, he finished outside the points in 54 of them and if you add his eight GP2 Asis Series starts, he failed to finish in the points in 60 of 92 starts. That isn't taking into consideration that he finished in the points in only 11 of 97 Formula One races. In nine seasons, he finished outside the points of a combined 146 of 189 races. That is not a good hit rate and part of that is because Ericsson was in bad cars in Formula One but focusing on just Ericsson's GP2 results, they can best be described as streaky. SPM already has one streaky driver in Hinchcliffe. It cannot afford Ericsson to have four or five strong results and then have seven or eight consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen.
Ericsson should aim to be on the cusp of the top ten of the championship. I think Ericsson will have his struggles but I think there will be one or two road courses where he qualifies in the top ten, possibly even the top six and stays towards the front, possibly getting a top five or podium finish.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports is shooting high and while it is now or never for Hinchcliffe, the team does have a bit of a project with Ericsson. It is kind of two conflicting mindsets. Hinchcliffe has to get results but Ericsson has to learn and get mileage. While it hopes to create the Big Four, SPM has a lot of competition for that honor but in all honesty it is going to take more than one good year to reach that aspiration. Cementing Big Four status must come after multiple championship seasons and victories. At its best, SPM will just have laid the foundation for a Big Four push this year.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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