Thursday, March 12, 2020

Track Walk: St. Petersburg 2020

IndyCar begins a new decade in St. Petersburg
We're back! IndyCar season is here again and the first round of the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. This is the 17th time St. Petersburg has been on the IndyCar schedule and it is the 12th time it is the season opener. This is the tenth consecutive season to start in St. Petersburg. Eleven different drivers have won this race including seven past champions. While having 11 different drivers win this race, only four of the 12 teams with an entrant for this year's race have won at St. Petersburg. One thing that will be different about this year's race is the introduction of the aeroscreen, which makes its race debut this weekend.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday March 15th with green flag scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers; Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Marty Snider, Kelli Stavast, Robin Miller and James Hinchcliffe will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 10:45-11:30 a.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Second Practice: 3:00-3:45 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Saturday:
Final Practice: 10:45-11:30 a.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 2:40 p.m. ET (Taped-delay coverage at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN)*
Sunday:
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.

Penske Going For Ten
Team Penske enters 2020 having won four of the previous six championship and it could not ask for a better place to start a season than St. Petersburg.

Team Penske has won nine of 16 St. Petersburg races, including four of the last six races.

Josef Newgarden launched his 2019 championship campaign with a strong St. Petersburg victory and Newgarden became the fifth different driver to win at St. Petersburg for Team Penske. He was also the first driver to win the championship after winning the first race in the season since Will Power did it in 2014. Newgarden could become the third consecutive driver to win consecutive St. Petersburg races. Juan Pablo Montoya won the 2015 and 2016 races, driving for Team Penske in both and Sébastien Bourdais won the 2017 and 2018 races with Dale Coyne Racing.

The lone Penske driver without a St. Petersburg victory is Simon Pagenaud, who is coming off being vice-champion in 2019, finishing 25 points off his teammate Newgarden. Pagenaud is entering 2020 with nine consecutive top ten finishes, with five top five finishes in his last seven starts. In eight St. Petersburg starts, Pagenaud has four top five finishes and six top ten finishes. He was twice runner-up in 2016 and 2017. While having good finishes, Pagenaud has only made it out of the first round of qualifying three times in his career at St. Petersburg. Two of those starts were on the front row in 2015 and 2016.

Will Power has one of the best qualifying records at St. Petersburg having qualified on the front row for the last five races and 10 out of 12 times at this track. While the qualifying record has been outstanding, the race record has not been as good. Last year's third place finish came after back-to-back years with finishes of 19th and tenth. He missed the 2016 race due to an inner-ear condition. Power is looking to tie Hélio Castroneves' record for most St. Petersburg victories at three. Power won this race in 2010 and 2014.

Andretti's Heavy Heart
This will be Andretti Autosport's first race since the passing of John Andretti, cousin of team owner Michael Andretti. John Andretti succumbed to his battle with colon cancer on January 30th. John drove three races with Andretti Autosport between the 2010 and 2011 seasons with his best finish being ninth at Kansas in 2010. Today would have been John's 57th birthday.

Alexander Rossi was the top Andretti Autosport driver in the championship in 2019 but he failed to lead a lap in the final seven races of 2019, had one top five finish in the final four races and dropped to third in the championship after spending much of it second behind Newgarden. Rossi has finished in the top five in the last two St. Petersburg races.

Colton Herta has been integrated into the Andretti Autosport fold with Harding Steinbrenner Racing merging with the team during the offseason and his season is already off to a rough start. The hauler containing Herta's car caught fire ten miles from the paddock in St. Petersburg on Wednesday morning. No one was hurt in the fire and the car was salvaged and will be used this weekend. However, the team did lose pit equipment and has had to scramble in late preparations for this race.

Herta is the most recent winner in IndyCar after a dominant victory at Laguna Seca. That victory, combined with a fourth-place finish at Portland, lifted him to seventh in the championship after being 14th after Gateway.

Ryan Hunter-Reay was eighth in the championship in 2019, his third consecutive season in the top ten of the championship, but it was the second time in three years he did not score a race victory. Hunter-Reay had only one top five finish in the final eight races of 2019, a third at Mid-Ohio. His only other podium finish in 2019 was third at Austin. It was the first time Hunter-Reay had fewer than three podium finishes in a season since he had two in 2010.

Marco Andretti turns 33 years old on Friday and he will be looking to get a little late present on Sunday. Andretti was 16th in the championship last year and did not score a top five finish over the 17 races. He has only three top five finishes in the last four seasons. He has not had a top five finish at St. Petersburg since he finished third in the 2013 race.

Zach Veach will start his third full IndyCar season after finishing 18th in the 2019 championship. Like Andretti, Veach did not have a top five finish in 2019 and he had only three top ten finishes over the 17 races. He only started in the top ten on three occasions in 2019. He has finished 16th and 14th in his first two St. Petersburg starts.

Andretti Autosport has two victories at St. Petersburg. Dan Wheldon won this race in 2005, 1-2-3-4 finish for the team with Tony Kanaan, Dario Franchitti and Bryan Herta taking the remaining positions. James Hinchcliffe won the 2013 race for the team with the aforementioned Andretti taking third.

Familiar Faces in New Places
There has been plenty of movement this IndyCar offseason and here are some of the driver changes of note for the 2020 season opener.

Sébastien Bourdais was the top driver from the 2019 championship to have a ride change for 2020. Bourdais has moved to A.J. Foyt Racing after finishing 11th last year in the championship for Dale Coyne Racing. Bourdais will run St. Petersburg, Barber, Long Beach and Portland in the #14 Chevrolet for Foyt. Bourdais ended 2019 with seven top ten finishes in the final ten races but he did not have a top five finish after Barber last year. This is Bourdais' fifth team in his IndyCar career.

Bourdais isn't the only new driver at A.J. Foyt Racing. Charlie Kimball will return to full competition in the #4 Chevrolet, replacing Matheus Leist. Kimball made seven starts in 2019, all with Carlin, and he picked up tenth place finishes at Pocono and Portland. In his last 41 starts, Kimball has only one top five finish. This will be his tenth St. Petersburg start. His best finish was ninth in 2012.

After a rookie season with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, Marcus Ericsson's sophomore season will take place at Chip Ganassi Racing in the #8 Honda. Ericsson moves over after finishing 17th in the championship with the highlight being a runner-up finish to Scott Dixon at the second Belle Isle race. Ericsson is moving to the team after having not finished in the top ten of the final seven races in 2019.

Conor Daly will be back for more IndyCar races, as he has taken over the road/street course portion of the schedule in the #20 Chevrolet for Ed Carpenter Racing. Daly will also run the Indianapolis 500 for the team in an additional entry and it was announced earlier this week that Daly will drive the remaining four oval races in the #59 Carlin Chevrolet. He made seven starts in 2019 between Andretti Autosport, Carlin and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. This is only the third time he will have started at St. Petersburg. He was 13th in the 2016 race with Dale Coyne Racing and 15th in 2017 with Foyt.

Patricio O'Ward will get his long-awaited full IndyCar season in 2020. O'Ward will drive the #5 Chevrolet for Arrow McLaren SP. Last year, O'Ward made seven starts with Carlin and his best finish was eighth at Austin. He also had fastest lap in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This will be O'Ward first time at St. Petersburg in an IndyCar but he has won at this track in Pro Mazda and Indy Lights.

Class of 2020
St. Petersburg will have four drivers making their IndyCar debut and all three drivers comprise what will the 2020 rookie class.

Oliver Askew is the reigning Indy Lights championship and Askew will drive the #7 Chevrolet for Arrow McLaren SP. In 2019, Askew won seven of 18 races and he had 15 podium finishes.The Floridan will make his debut in his home state and his Road to Indy statistics at St. Petersburg were respectable. He won in U.S. F2000 at St. Petersburg in 2017 with a second place finish. He had finishes of fifth and sixth in 2018 at Pro Mazda and last year he had a third place finish in the first Indy Lights race but contact in race two took him out after only two laps.

Rinus VeeKay was responsible for that contact with Askew and VeeKay follows Askew up to IndyCar. VeeKay will drive the #21 Chevrolet for Ed Carpenter Racing after he was second in the Indy Lights championship, 21 points behind Askew. VeeKay won six races and had 14 podium finishes in Indy Lights. He was the 2018 Pro Mazda champion and swept the St. Petersburg races. In 2017, he had finishes of third and second at this track in U.S. F2000.

Álex Palou brings some more international flare to the 2020 rookie class. Palou will drive the #55 Honda for Dale Coyne Racing after spending 2019 racing in the Super Formula and Super GT championships. Palou was third in the Super Formula championship with a notable race victory in the wet at Fuji. He also had three pole positions, the most in the series. On top of his Japanese experience, Palou won in the GP3 Series at Abu Dhabi in 2015.

While not necessarily running the full season, Felipe Nasr will make his IndyCar debut this weekend in the #31 Chevrolet for Carlin. Nasr has spent the last two season in IMSA's prototype class and he will continue to compete in that class with the Action Express Racing #31 Cadillac. In his first two IMSA season, Nasr won a championship and finished second in the championship. Nasr has made 40 Formula One starts with his career best finish being fifth on debut in the 2015 Australian Grand Prix. His only foray in single-seater racing since leaving Formula One was three Formula E starts last year with Dragon Racing.

The last five rookies of the year in IndyCar have come from five different teams. Schmidt Peterson Motorsports took the 2016 honor with Robert Wickens. Dale Coyne Racing took the 2015 honor with Ed Jones. Ed Carpenter Racing has never had a driver win rookie of the year.

How Have We Not Talked About Scott Dixon?
Yeah! How has Marcus Ericsson been the only Ganassi driver included in the first Track Walk of the 2020? Let's rectify that!

Scott Dixon has never won the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg but a victory here would move Dixon into a tie with Dario Franchitti for second all-time in most different tracks won at. This would be the 24th different circuit Dixon won at in his career. Last year, Dixon was runner-up to Newgarden and it was his fourth runner-up finish at St. Petersburg having previously done it in 2006, 2007 and 2012. The only tracks where Dixon has more runner-up finishes but no victories are Barber and Chicagoland. He has six runner-up finishes at Barber and he has five runner-up finishes at Chicagoland.

While we are taking about Dixon, and we have already touched on Ericsson, let's finish with Felix Rosenqvist, the 2019 IndyCar Rookie of the Year. Rosenqvist was sixth in the championship last year and he had runner-up finishes at Mid-Ohio and Portland. His second place finish at Mid-Ohio was to Dixon by 0.093 seconds. Last year, Rosenqvist led 31 laps at St. Petersburg, his IndyCar debut, but he ended up finishing fourth after being cycled back due to pit strategy. Rosenqvist could become the first driver to win the championship the season after winning rookie of the year since Sébastien Bourdais was CART Rookie of the Year in 2003 and Champ Car champion in 2004.

The Streak Ends at 317
Tony Kanaan will not be on the grid for the 2020 Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg and it will end his record of 317 consecutive starts. This is the first race Kanaan has not started since the CART Belle Isle on June 17, 2001 when he suffered a concussion during qualifying.

During that 317-race stretch, Kanaan drove for Mo Nunn Racing, Andretti Green/Andretti Autosport, KV Racing, Chip Ganassi Racing and A.J. Foyt Racing. He won 16 races, including the 2013 Indianapolis 500, and he was the 2004 Indy Racing League championship.

This will be the first IndyCar race without either Tony Kanaan or Hélio Castroneves since the 1997 CART finale at Fontana.

With Kanaan retiring, the driver with the longest active consecutive start streak will be Scott Dixon at  258 starts and Marco Andretti has the next longest streak at 234 starts. Dixon's and Andretti's streaks are second- and third-longest all-time. Ryan Hunter-Reay has made 209 consecutive starts, the fifth-longest in IndyCar history and two starts behind Jimmy Vasser's 211 consecutive starts, which was the all-time record prior to Kanaan getting the record at Baltimore in 2013.

Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series will be starting their 2020 seasons as well in St. Petersburg and all three will have doubleheader weekends.

Indy Lights has ten cars entered for the season opener and the notable name entering the series is Kyle Kirkwood with Andretti Autosport. Kirkwood has won the U.S. F2000 and Indy Pro 2000 championships in successive seasons. He has won 21 of 30 Road to Indy starts. He tested for Andretti Autosport's BMW Formula E team earlier this month in Marrakesh and was fifth quickest and he topped the Indy Lights preseason test at Homestead earlier this week.

Robert Megennis returns to Indy Lights for a second season with Andretti Autosport. Daniel Frost joins Kirkwood as Indy Pro 2000 graduates and Frenchman Tristan Charpentier rounds out the Andretti Autosport lineup.

Toby Sowery is the top driver from the 2019 championship returning to Indy Lights. Sowery has moved to Belardi Auto Racing and his teammate will be Indy Pro 2000 vice-champion Rasmus Lindh.

Santiago Urrutia is returning to Indy Lights for a fourth season after spending 2019 in the TCR Europe Touring Car Series. Urrutia has eight victories in 51 Indy Lights starts and he has finished in the top three of the championship in each of his Indy Lights seasons. The Uruguayan will drive for HMD Motorsports and his teammates will be David Malukas, who returns for a second season, and Antonio Serravalle, who moves up from Indy Pro 2000.

Exclusive Autosport is a new team on the Indy Lights grid and Nikita Latoschkin will drive for the team this season.

Indy Lights will race at 1:35 p.m. ET on Saturday March 14th and 1:15 p.m. ET on Sunday March 15th.

Indy Pro 2000 has a baker's dozen worth of entries for its season opener with the top two drivers from U.S. F2000 each having a ride for the 2020 season.

Reigning U.S. F2000 champion Braden Eves moves up to Indy Pro 2000 with Exclusive Autosport with Hunter McElrea entered with Pabst Racing. Eves is driving for a one-car team while McElrea will have Colin Kaminsky as his teammate. Kaminsky is moving up from U.S. F2000 as well.

Notable Indy Pro 2000 veterans Parker Thompson and Sting Ray Robb are back for 2020. Thompson moves to DEForce Racing while Robb returns with Juncos Racing. Thompson will have three teammates in Moisés de la Vara, Kory Enders and Manuel Sulaimán. Robb will have a new teammate in Artem Petrov, who moves over after running a handful of races with RP Motorsports.

RP Motorports won the championship last year with Kirkwood and the team has Swede Lucas Petersson and American Philippe Denes entered for 2020.

Sabré Cook will be entered for majority of the Indy Pro 2000 races with Team Benik, as she splits her time with his W Series commitments.

Charles Finelli rounds out the Indy Pro 2000 entries.

Indy Pro 2000 will race Friday March 13th at 1:25 p.m. ET and Saturday March 14th at 11:45 a.m. ET.

The largest Road to Indy field this weekend will be U.S. F2000 with 20 entries.

Cape Motorsports has produced nine consecutive U.S. F2000 drivers' champions. This year Cape Motorsports has four drivers entered. Reece Gold is the one returning driver for the team with Team USA Scholarship winner Josh Green joining the team. Michael d'Orlando and Kyle Dupell are the other two drivers in the team.

Prescott Campbell topped testing at Homestead with Exclusive Autosport and his teammate Christian Brooks was third at the test.

Christian Rasmussen was third in the championship last year and he returns but moves to Jay Howard  Driver Development. Rasmussen's teammates will be Wyatt Brichacek, Christian Bogle and Nolan Siegel.

Eduardo Barrichello was second at the test and he will drive for Pabst Racing with Yuven Sundaramoorthy and Matt Round-Garrido as his teammates. Christian Shields rounded out the top five in the test and he will drive for Legacy Autosport. Exclusive Autosport has entered two cars for Mathias Ramirez and Kiko Porto.

U.S. F2000 will have race one at 12:30 p.m. on Friday March 13th with race two scheduled for Saturday March 14th at 12:40 p.m. ET.

Fast Facts
This will be the third IndyCar race on March 15th and first since Michael Andretti won at Homestead in 1998.

Last year, Josef Newgarden became the first driver to win the championship after winning the season opener since Will Power in 2014.

Last year, Josef Newgarden became the first driver to win at St. Petersburg in IndyCar and Indy Lights. He won the 2011 Indy Lights race at St. Petersburg.

Six other drivers entered for this year's IndyCar race have won at St. Petersburg in Indy Lights (Marco Andretti, Zach Veach, Felix Rosenqvist, Colton Herta, Patricio O'Ward and Rinus VeeKay).

Last year's St. Petersburg race was the fastest since the race expanded to 110 laps, 198 miles with an average speed of 95.572 MPH.

Graham Rahal and James Hinchcliffe are the only drivers to have their first career IndyCar victory come at St. Petersburg.

Graham Rahal and Josef Newgarden are the only two American drivers to have won the IndyCar race at St. Petersburg.

With 26 cars entered for the 2020 race, this matches the most St. Petersburg entries. The 2008 and 2012 races each had 26 entries.

The average starting position for a St. Petersburg winner is 5.6875 with a median of fourth.
The pole-sitter has not won at St. Petersburg since Will Power in 2010. The only other time the pole-sitter won at St. Petersburg was Hélio Castroneves in 2007.

Fourth starting position has produced five St. Petersburg winners, more than any other starting position.

A St. Petersburg winner has never started third.

Sébastien Bourdais is the only driver to win at St. Petersburg from a starting position outside the top ten. Bourdais won from 21st on the grid in 2017 and from 14th in 2018.

Since 2012, Chevrolet has won six of eight St. Petersburg races. Sébastien Bourdais is the only driver to win for Honda at St. Petersburg since 2012.

The average number of lead changes in a St. Petersburg race is 6.5625 with a median of seven. The most lead changes was 11 in 2018. The fewest lead changes was two in 2003.

The average number of cautions in a St. Petersburg race is 4.25 with a median of five. The average number of caution laps is 18.8125 with a median of 18 lap.

Every St. Petersburg race has had at least two cautions. Four of the last six St. Petersburg races have had exactly two cautions. The fewest caution laps in a St. Petersburg race was eight in 2017.

Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon needs one victory in 2020 to tie A.J. Foyt's record of 18 seasons with at least one victory.

Will Power is one victory from pole position away from breaking a tie for fourth all-time. Power is tied with Bobby Unser with 16 victories from pole position.

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

Alexander Rossi needs to lead 81 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Takuma Sato needs to lead 91 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Graham Rahal needs to lead 12 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.

Conor Daly needs to lead 28 laps to reach the 100 laps led milestone.

Predictions
Felix Rosenqvist starts the season with a first-time winner and he does it with one Penske driver and one Andretti Autosport driver on the podium. Sébastien Bourdais will finish ahead of both Dale Coyne Racing drivers. Colton Herta rebounds with a top five finish. Ben Hanley does not finish two laps down. There will not be a red flag in qualifying that throws the grids out of sorts. Ryan Hunter-Reay will not suffer an engine failure. Sleeper: Patricio O'Ward.


Wednesday, March 11, 2020

2020 Road to Indy Preview

The IndyCar Series season isn't the only one getting underway this weekend from St. Petersburg. All three Road to Indy series start 2020 with doubleheaders on the 1.8-mile street course.

The 2019 champions have all moved up the ladder and a few names are looking primed to compete for the scholarship to IndyCar while a few rungs down drivers can feel the possibilities but have a long way to go.

All three series were testing at Homestead last weekend and off the back of that test we will preview the 2020 drivers and set out expectations. We will begin with Indy Lights and work our way down the ladder.

Indy Lights
This will be an 18-race season for Indy Lights starting with a doubleheader from St. Petersburg on March 14th and 15th. The series will return to Barber in 2019 for a doubleheader on April 4th and 5th. Indy Lights will have a month off before it runs on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course on May 8th and 9th and the Freedom 100 will take place on May 22nd.

Road America will be the halfway mark of the season with a doubleheader on June 20th and 21st. Toronto will be the second and final street course venue with races scheduled for July 11th and 12th. Mid-Ohio will host a doubleheader on August 15th and 16th. Gateway is the second and final oval race of the season on August 22nd.

Portland will host the penultimate round on September 5th and 6th. The finale will be at Laguna Seca on September 21st and 22nd.

Teams:
Andretti Autosport
Robert Megennis: #27 Andretti Autosport Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Fifth in the Indy Lights championship on 355 points with one victory and six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Megennis was solid last year but had few days where he stood out. This is a weaker grid than 2019 and Megennis should do slightly better. I think his Andretti Autosport teammates are just as good as last year, which will make it tough for him but he should win at least one or two races.

Kyle Kirkwood: #28 Road to Indy/Cooper Tires/Construction Contractors Club Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Kirkwood won the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 419 points with nine victories and 11 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: From everything we have seen in U.S. F2000, Indy Pro 2000, sports car and even Kirkwood's Formula E test, where he ended up fifth, he will be fighting for this championship. While he won an impressive nine races last year, Kirkwood did have a few down races and it was a hard-fought Indy Pro 2000 championship even if he did lock it up a race early. If he keeps his nose clean it is hard to see how Kirkwood will not end up as champion.

Tristan Charpentier: #48 TWV, Feed Racing, SimuMotion Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Made one start in Super Formula and retired after seven laps in the season opener at Suzuka and that was it.
What to expect in 2020: I do not know. Charpentier was not qualified for Super Formula last year and he was bounced almost immediately. He is only signed up for the first three rounds of 2020. He was quicker than his Andretti teammate Daniel Frost at the Homestead test but he was still not putting up impressive times. This could be a guy that is just somewhere between fifth and tenth each weekend but never any better than fifth. I do not see him winning races.

Daniel Frost: #68 DEN-JET Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Fifth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 318 points with two victories and six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Frost did very well in his first year in Indy Pro 2000 and though his testing times were not stellar I think he will be respectable in Indy Lights. I do not think he is going to be challenging Kirkwood. I think Frost's results will pick up during the season and he is more likely to be competing with Megennis for second in the Andretti Autosport stable at the end of the year.

Belardi Auto Racing
Toby Sowery: #5 Sport Bible Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Third in the Indy Lights championship on 367 points with one victory and seven podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Sowery is the top driver from the 2019 championship returning to Indy Lights. He is moving to a new team but Belardi has produced championship drivers before. Sowery was a distant third to Oliver Askew and Rinus VeeKay in the championship but he had some strong showing and he should find himself in the championship fight this year and pick up multiple victories.

Rasmus Lindh: #10 PWR Racing/Husvården Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Second in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 417 points with three victories and 13 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Lindh was two points behind Kirkwood in Indy Pro 2000, though Kirkwood locked up the title a race early, but Lindh was in the top five of every race. He was consistently at the front in U.S. F2000 as well. The one problem is Lindh led much of the Indy Pro 2000 championship but he could not find a way around Kirkwood especially when he had a chance to tighten his grip. I think Kirkwood is better and Lindh could keep it close to Kirkwood and Sowery but we have already seen him have difficult leading the pack. He could win a few races.

HMD Motosports
Antonio Serravalle: #11 AS PROMOTIONS/Tycoon Capital/Ferrari & Associates Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Tenth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 188 points and his best finish was fourth on two occasions.
What to expect in 2020: Serravalle ran the better portion of two Indy Pro 2000 seasons and never really stood out. This is a weak field but I think he will be in the second half of the championship.

Santiago Urrutia: #55 Uruguay National/BSE/ANCAP Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Third in the TCR Europe Touring Car Series on 234 points, 118 points off champion Josh Files, with two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Urrutia should be in IndyCar. He was runner-up in the championship in 2016 and 2017 behind Ed Jones and Kyle Kaiser and he was third in 2018 behind Patricio O'Ward and Colton Herta. He is more than ready for IndyCar. He is stepping into a team that is still fairly new to Indy Lights but Urrutia is going to win a few races and push Kirkwood, Sowery and Lindh for the championship.

David Malukas: #79 HMD Trucking Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Sixth in the Indy Lights championship with 301 points and two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: I think Malukas will be around where he was last year but could be a little better. I do not think he can compete with Kirkwood, Urrutia, Sowery or Lindh but I think he could be in the mix for fifth in the championship with Megennis and Frost.

Exclusive Autosport
Nikita Lastochkin: #90 Russkaya Mekhanika Dallara-AER
What did he do in 2019: Sixth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with 237 points and his best finish was fourth on two occasions.
What to expect in 2020: Lastochkin has made 80 starts across U.S. F2000, U.S. F2000 Winterfest and Indy Pro 2000. He has two podium finishes in those 80 starts. He will be in the back half of the championship.

Indy Pro 2000
Like Indy Lights, the Indy Pro 2000 season will begin with a doubleheader from St. Petersburg on March 13th and 14th. Indy Pro 2000 will have its second round on April 25th and 26th from Circuit of the Americas in Austin. It will be the first visit for the series to the track since 2013. Another doubleheader is scheduled for May 8th and 9th from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

The first oval race of the season with be at Indianapolis Raceway Park for the Carb Night Classic on May 22nd. After a month off, Indy Pro 2000 will be at Road America on June 20th and 21st. After Road America will be Toronto on July 11th and 12th and Mid-Ohio on August 15th and 16th.

Gateway will be the final oval on August 22nd with Portland following on September 5th and 6th and Laguna Seca closing out the 18-race season on September 21st and 22nd.

Teams:
Juncos Racing
Sting Ray Robb: #2 Firehouse/Goodheart Animal Health Centers Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Fourth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 323 points with six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: This will be Robb's fourth year in Indy Pro 2000 and he is still looking for his first career victory. I think he will get it but I am not sure he will be a championship contender. He was fourth last year and he could be a tad better but if he hasn't won a race in three years I am not sure he can be penciled in for a championship in year four.

Artem Petrov: #42 Race to Success/Bell/226ers Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 15th in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with 72 points from five starts. He was also ninth in the Toyota Racing Series championship with one victory and he made two starts in the FIA Formula 3 Championship and two starts in the Euroformula Open Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Petrov was competitive in his five starts last year with RP Motorsports USA against teammate Kyle Kirkwood. He was sixth at Homestead, directly behind Robb. The goal should be to be the top Juncos Racing driver and that alone could be good enough to get a top five championship finish.

RP Motorsport USA
Lucas Petersson #4 KPS/Revive Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 13th in the BRDC British Formula Three championship on 206 points with a victory.
What to expect in 2020: Petersson is coming over with a good but not great record in Europe but BRDC British Formula Three is a tough championship. He is coming over with a lot of experience and with a championship team. His testing pace was toward the bottom of the chart but I think he could be a driver that starts slow and once he gets a handle on the car his finishes could improve.

Phillippe Denes: #5 Fire Fighers Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 11th in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 173 points with his best finish being sixth on two occasions.
What to expect in 2020: Denes has been hanging around for quite some time but he has yet to put together a full season in Indy Pro 2000. His testing results at the Chris Griffith Memorial Test from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in October were promising but he was 12th at Homestead, just ahead of Petersson. If he runs a full season with RP Motorsport, Denes should be aiming for top ten in the championship.

Exclusive Autosport
Braden Eves: #1 Road to Indy/Cooper Tires/MDRN Livery/CCFI/Huston Insurance Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Eves won the U.S. F2000 championship on 361 points with six victories and eight podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Eves was fastest at the Chris Griffith Memorial Test back in October and he topped the Homestead test. He started the 2019 U.S. F2000 season strong but got caught in a rut before digging himself out at the end of the year. I think Eves can be a factor for this championship and win multiple races but he needs to be more consistent this year than he was last year.

DEForce Racing
Moisés de la Vara: #6 UAG/Isla Navidad Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Eighth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 198 points with his best finish being fourth.
What to expect in 2020: De la Vara was in the middle of the pack last year and his testing results have him in the same place. I think he could pick up a few top five finishes but I am not sure he can be a contender for race victories.

Kory Enders: #7 MB Sugar Land/McLaren Houston Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Seventh in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 211 points with two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: I think Enders could be slightly better this year but it is going to be tough to challenge for a championship. There is a chance he could get a victory and he could end up in the top five of the championship.

Parker Thompson: #9 DEForce Racing/Tundra Process Solutions/Nossack Food Group Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Third in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 344 points with two victories and eight podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Thompson is ready for Indy Lights. He is the Santiago Urrutia of Indy Pro 2000. The championship has been eluding him and this will be his third team in three years in this series. He could win the championship and at worst he is in the top five.

Manuel Sulaimán: #12 Viva Aerobus Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Sixth in the U.S. F2000 championship on 211 points with two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Sulaimán had a good start in U.S. F2000 last year and then the results tapered off a bit. I think all the DEForce Racing drivers are good drivers but they cannot all finish in the top five of the championship. Sulaimán will be somewhere in the back half of the top ten in the championship.

FatBoy Racing!
Charles Finelli: #83 Surgere/Hagerty Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 12th in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 133 points with his best finish being eighth.
What to expect in 2020: Outside the top ten of the championship.

Pabst Racing
Hunter McElrea: #18 Giltrap Group/Miles Advisory Partners/Doric NZ Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Second in the U.S. F2000 championship on 356 points with four victories and 12 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: McElrea went back and forth with Braden Eves for the championship in 2019. McElrea put up a strong fight and part of me thinks he was more consistent than Eves in 2019 only to lose the title in the final weekend. I think he will be back at the front of the field with Eves in 2020 and competing for another championship.

Colin Kaminsky: #19 Slick Locks Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Fourth in the U.S. F2000 championship on 282 points with six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Kaminsky did very well in U.S. F2000 but couldn't get that elusive victory. I think he will be good but with the depth of this field a victory will be tough to come by. He could get one but end up finishing somewhere between fourth and eighth in the championship.

Team Benik
Sabré Cook: #37 Team Benik/Xtract Technologies/Apple Motorsports Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 12th in the W Series with 12 points and a best finish of seventh at the Norisring.
What to expect in 2020: Cook will not be competing the full season. She will not be running ovals or any races that conflict with her W Series commitments. Cook ran in U.S. F2000 two years ago and had some rough races but her W Series results are encouraging. I think she will be in the top ten and pushing for the top five on a few occasions.

U.S. F2000
St. Petersburg will be the first round for U.S. F2000 on March 13th and 14th and the series will join IndyCar and Indy Pro 2000 at Austin on April 24th and 25th. All four series will reunite at the IMS road course on May 8th and 9th. The only oval race on the schedule will be May 22nd at Indianapolis Raceway Park for the Carb Night Classic.

Road America will be the halfway point of the season on June 20th and 21st. Toronto will be July 11th and 12th. Mid-Ohio will have a doubleheader on August 15th and 16th. Portland follows on September 5th and 6th. The 18-race season concludes at Laguna Seca on September 21st and 22nd.

Teams:
Cape Motorsports
Josh Green: #2 JHG Investment Fund Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Two starts in the U.S. F2000 championship at Portland with finishes of 11th and tenth. Green was also second in the F1600 Championship with eight victories and 18 podium finishes from 21 races.
What to expect in 2020: Green is coming off the Team USA Scholarship and he had good results over at Brands Hatch and Silverstone. Testing results were slower than I expected with Green down in 12th. I am not sure that is a true indicator of where he will be. I think if he starts slow results will be better in the second half of the season

Reece Gold: #3 The Ticket Clinic Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Tenth in the U.S. F2000 championship on 167 points with his best finish being eighth on four occasions.
What to expect in 2020: Gold had a tough 2019 season but it was his first serious year in car racing and he is only 15 years old. I think 2020 results will be better and he will improve by at least three positions in the championship. He was tenth at the Homestead test.

Michael d'Orlando: #4 Focused Project Management/DB Collaborative Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 14th in the Formula 4 United States Championship with 40 points and a podium finish.
What to expect in 2020: D'Orlando has been in and out of the Road to Indy for a few years now. He had a few good results and a coupe of bad results. He could be a top ten championship driver but I am not comfortable saying more than that.

Kyle Dupell: #8 Opal Creek Capital/Family Help and Wellness Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Four starts in the U.S. F2000 championship with his best finish being 12th
What to expect in 2020: Dupell was full-time in this series in 2018 before cutting back to two rounds in 2019. He is one of the older drivers in the series, born in the 20th century, and he has to get results. Cape Motorsports is a championship team but I think that is a lot to ask for Dupell. Top ten in the championship would be great but I think that is asking a lot.

Pabst Racing
Yuven Sundaramoorthy: #21 S team Motorsports Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 12th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 150 points with his best finish being sixth.
What to expect in 2020: Testing results are encouraging for Sundaramoorthy but the testing results are encouraging for his Pabst Racing teammates as well. He will finish better than 12th in the championship but I am not sure he could get higher than seventh or eighth.

Eduardo Barrichello: #22 Bib's Chocolate/Ale Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 11th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 151 points with his best finish being fifth on two occasions.
What to expect in 2020: Barrichello is going to make a big leap up. I think he could be a contender for a few victories and he could make a run for the championship. He was second at the Homestead test.

Matt Round-Garrido: #23 Excel Labels Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 14th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 122 points despite not running the final four races with one podium finish.
What to expect in 2020: I think all three Pabst Racing drivers could be in the top ten of the championship. That is easier said than done but all three have experience in this series and all three were good in testing. Round-Garrido was eighth at Homestead.

Jay Howard Driver Development
Wyatt Brichacek: #5 JHDD, CSU | One Cure/Lucas Oil Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Two starts in the U.S. F2000 championship at Laguna Seca with finish of eighth and 18th. Brichacek was also 12th in the Formula 4 United States Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Brichacek might be the third best JHDD driver. In that case, he will be somewhere in the middle of the field.

Christian Rasmussen: #6 JHDD, CSU | One Cure/Lucas Oil Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Third in the U.S. F2000 championship on 282 points with three victories and seven podium finishes.
What to expect in 2020: Rasmussen is the championship favorite. His 2019 season started slow but he had a strong finish and that should carry over into 2020. He should have more than three race victories.

Christian Bogle: #7 Pelican Energy Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 17th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 93 points with his best finish being tenth. Bogle was also tenth in the Formula 4 United States Championship with two victories.
What to expect in 2020: Bogle was worst of the full-time drivers in 2019. Things have to get better and but he was only 16th at the Homestead test. This could be a year of marginal gains.

Nolan Siegel: #9 Menlo Ventures/Aero Paint Technology Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 15th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 113 pints with his best finish being tenth on three occasions.
What to expect in 2020: Siegel is 15 years old and he was 15th in the championship in his first year in car racing. He is going to improve and I think he gets into the top ten of championship. He was seventh at the Homestead test.

DEForce Racing
Mathías Ramirez: #10 GPS Construction Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Third in the SKUSA SuperNats in the Pro Shifter class, third in the Florida Winter Tour Shifter ROK Class and second in the Biloxi ROK Fest in Shifter ROK.
What to expect in 2020: Ramirez is moving up from karting. The bar has to be somewhat low. Everything takes some time to adjust.

Kiko Porto: #12 Banco Daycoval/Petromega Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Second in the Formula 4 United States Championship on 220 points, 79 points off champion Joshua Car, with three victories and eight podium finishes from 17 starts.
What to expect in 2020: Porto should do well and be competing for the top ten in the championship. It could be a case where Porto needs a race weekend or two to get his legs and by the middle of the year he could be in contention for a few race victories.

Legacy Autosport
Cameron Shields: #20 Metalloid Corporation Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 13th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 137 points despite missing the final six races and having won one race and having another podium finish.
What to expect in 2020: I thought Shields could win races last year and he did get one victory before his season was cut short. Shields could be a championship contender if he is full-time.

Ayrton Ori: #27 Permatex/Spray Nine Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 11th in the F1600 championship with one podium finish. Ori started the final two U.S. F2000 rounds and had three finishes of 16th and an 18th.
What to expect in 2020: Ori's limited car experience does not have many great results. He was in the bottom portion of the testing results. The bar is low for 2020. A couple top ten finishes would be a good start.

Miller Vinatieri Motorsports
Jack William Miller: #40 Indy Dental Group/LLC/Lumist Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 16th in the U.S. F2000 championship on 97 points with his best finish being ninth.
What to expect in 2020: Things have to get better because he was the second worst of the full-time drivers in 2019. I am not saying things are going to be extraordinarily better but they should be better. He will get into three figures when it comes to points.

Max Kaeser: #41 Miller Vinatieri Motorsports
What did he do in 2019: Competed in SCCA Formula F.
What to expect in 2020: This is going to be his first year in serious car racing and most days he will be at the rear of the field.

Exclusive Autosport
Prescott Campbell: #1 Lucas Oil School of Racing Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Campbell was the Lucas Oil Formula Car Race Series champion with three victories and 11 podium finishes from 15 races.
What to expect in 2020: This is the same series Reece Gold came from. This is a big step for Campbell. Gold had some good races in 2019 and he was top ten in the championship. The biggest difference is Campbell topped the Homestead test. I think top ten in the championship has to be the goal for Campbell but after testing the bar is a little higher. I think he has to be shooting for the top five.

Christian Brooks: #44 Hot Wheels/Chaco Flaco/Bell Helmets Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: Third in the Formula 4 United States Championship with two victories and eight podium finishes in 17 starts.
What to expect in 2020: Brooks was a late addition to the test and he was third quickest. Brooks and Campbell could be leading the way for Exclusive Autosport and both be competing for race victories. If you get enough victories you could be in the top five or even be champion.

Manuel Cabrera: #91 Gateway Telecommunications/PMC Promotions Tatuus-Mazda
What did he do in 2019: 22nd in the U.S. F2000 championship with 21 points after starting the first five races with his best finish being 11th.
What to expect in 2020: Cabrera was at the other end of the timesheet compared to his Exclusive Autosport teammates in testing. Amazingly, Cabrera has finished 22nd in this championship the last two years. Somehow I feel he will not be 22nd a third consecutive season.

Indy Pro 2000 and U.S. F2000 will each be on track in St. Petersburg on Thursday March 12th for practice and qualifying with each series. Indy Lights will first take to the track for practice on Friday March 13th.


Monday, March 9, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Not Enough Room in the Booth

Joey Logano became the first repeat winner in the NASCAR Cup Series with a victory in Phoenix. MotoGP has postponed its Thailand round until October. World Superbike has cancelled its Qatar round. Formula E has cancelled its race in Rome. Austin is in the verge of a shutdown and it caught the GT World Challenge America series in the middle of its season opener with MotoGP and IndyCar races scheduled to take place there next month. The Bahrain Grand Prix will go on behind closed doors. Fun times ahead. There will be a debut this weekend at the IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg but it will not be happening on the racetrack. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Not Enough Room in the Booth
James Hinchcliffe will be on the grid for the 2020 Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. It is nothing new for the Hinchcliffe, a veteran driver with 139 starts, a half-dozen victories and an Indianapolis 500 pole position on his résumé.

This time Hinchcliffe will not be sliding behind the wheel of a Dallara DW12 chassis looking for his second St. Petersburg victory. This time Hinchcliffe will be on the grid, microphone in hand, and reporting on the race for NBC Sports.

A slew of untimely and unfortunate events kept Hinchcliffe out of a full-time IndyCar seat for the 2020 season. The Canadian was caught with one-year remaining on a contract with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports but during a time of transition with McLaren partnering with the organization and wanting its own drivers Hinchcliffe was sidelined in favor of Patricio O'Ward and Oliver Askew. However, McLaren would not immediately let Hinchcliffe out of his contract and by the time Hinchcliffe was released all the top full-time rides were gone.

Hinchcliffe will be on the grid for a few races. He already has the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500 and Texas on his schedule with Andretti Autosport. A few more may be added but we do know Hinchcliffe will work four IndyCar races for NBC Sports while also working NASCAR's Brickyard 400 weekend and some IMSA races. His main job will be on television and television was a place many people thought Hinchcliffe would end up but perhaps not this quickly.

Every driver will come to the end of a career and realize he or she can only drive so long. Some have their careers end early. The best of them are able to continue into their 40s, some into their 50s, but even if at best you make it to 45 you still have to find something to do with your life for the next 20 years. Television is a great place to keep going in motorsports. A driver can continue making the same trips, staying in the same hotels and seeing the same people for another two decades thanks to television.

The problem with motorsports is the number of television opportunities are few and are in-between. Unlike baseball where there are 30 major league teams, each with a television and radio broadcast partner, some of which even have a Spanish-radio broadcast, and then national television partners in Fox, ESPN and Turner and then MLB Network, motorsports does not have nearly as close to as many high-profile opportunities.

There is one IndyCar broadcast partner. It is NBC Sports. It offers one lead commentator position, two color commentary positions and four pit lane reporters. That is it. There is one radio broadcast for IndyCar and it has the same number of opportunities. If you want to be an IndyCar broadcaster there are 14 spots, maybe a few more. That is it.

Add to it NASCAR, which has two television partners and two radio partners and there are probably another 50 broadcasting positions. Add IMSA, which uses many of the same broadcasters as NBC Sports' IndyCar and NASCAR coverage, but include the IMSA Radio and that is another ten spots.

All in all, there are probably about 75 broadcasting positions for major American motorsports broadcasting. Take into consideration there are broadcasting professionals that are going to fill lead commentator and pit reporting positions the number of spots for former drivers is a small fraction and some of those are already accounted for. There might be a half-dozen open spots each year.

There are a handful of drivers out there that people think are naturals for broadcasting but the truth of the matter is there is not enough room for all of them. Hinchcliffe's IndyCar sabbatical corresponds with the end of Tony Kanaan's career. Kanaan has announced this will be his final season in IndyCar and he is scheduled to run the five oval races for A.J. Foyt Racing. Kanaan is another driver many think has the chops for broadcasting. Kanaan has been in the booth before after early retirements in races, most notably the 2018 Pocono race, and he even got a crack at it with IndyCar's testing coverage last month from Austin.

The problem for Hinchcliffe and Kanaan is they face stiff competition for the broadcasting positions. NBC Sports already has a full crew. Hinchcliffe is an add-on for this year but even this year is not a booth position. He will be on pit lane for most of his time. It will be difficult to usurp Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy from the color commentary positions. A four-man booth is not ideal and though it is done for NBC's NASCAR coverage just because it is done in one instance means it will work in another.

What Hinchcliffe and Kanaan has on their sides is recent experience in an IndyCar and not just any IndyCar but this IndyCar, the universal aero kit-shod DW12 chassis that will be on track for this season. Tracy has not been in an IndyCar race since 2011. Bell's last race was 2016. Bell does stay active in racing with the Lexus GT Daytona program in IMSA. Tracy has run a few one-off sports car races in the last few years.

We are in a changing time for sports broadcasting and thanks to the instance success of Tony Romo on CBS' NFL broadcasts it is a time where recency is king and some see it as vital to a great broadcast. People want someone who is informative in the booth and can explain the nuances of what is going on. Romo stepped in and was calling plays seconds before they happened on the screen. He has done such a damn good job he got a pay raise, how does $17 million a year for broadcasting sound?

Neither Hinchcliffe nor Kanaan are going to get that type of money but their recent experience on track could lead them to pushing a few people out the door. The only issue, and we will still have to wait and see if this will be the case with Romo, is how long is the shelf life for these guys? Hinchcliffe will likely get another full shot at IndyCar, so he still has some time, but if 2020 is going to be it for Kanaan outside of a one-off at Indianapolis for the next four or five years, how long will his insider information stay fresh? How long until he is too far gone and someone else will be better suited in the booth?

It is a difficult question to asking in motorsports. Kanaan has the experience with the car but come 2022 the plan is for IndyCar to have a new chassis and a new engine formula with a hybrid component. Even if Kanaan continues to run as an Indianapolis one-off into 2022 and a little beyond his experience with the car is going to pale in comparison to a driver that is full-time, running at every track and testing with it. It would not take long until someone else is readying for retirement and has a better grasp on what is going on in an IndyCar.

To the retirees it has to be scary because you cannot be forced out of a job five years after having left racing behind but it is the evolution of the industry happening in front of us. Experience is key and if you do not have experience it will be tougher for you to relate and be taken seriously. We saw Darrell Waltrip have a rough final five years in the booth. When he finally stepped away from broadcasting it was nearly two decades after he had raced in the NASCAR Cup Series and close to 30 years since he was last a competitive force.

Jeff Gordon has stepped into Fox's NASCAR coverage and he carries recent experience with him but that is slipping quickly with NASCAR's next generation of car to be introduced next year. Dale Earnahardt, Jr. has even said he hopes he can test NASCAR's new car at some point just to be familiar with the car when it is on track next year.

Relevance is something all motorsports broadcasters struggle with because it is always slipping away. From Gordon to Earnhardt, Jr., Jamie McMurray to Jeff Burton, Paul Tracy to Townsend Bell, Martin Brundle to Calvin Fish, they are all slowly losing the grasp of what is happening on the racetrack. There comes a point when it will pass them by and that is natural. Nothing lasts forever and at some point there will be someone better for the position.

When thinking about this I was wondering if broadcast entities should take an approach that a commentator is only going to last for five or six years because of relevance. Maybe some better commentators could go for ten years but after a decade away how much could one really speak to what is happening on the racetrack? But then I remembered David Hobbs, a man who spent four decades in the commentator positions.

Hobbs commentated on Formula One until 2017, 43 years after his final Formula One race! Hobbs' final serious race was in 1990, unless you consider Fast Masters serious, otherwise Hobbs' final race was in 1993. At no point over the course of the 2010s did I consider Hobbs no longer having relevance to a Formula One broadcast even though he had not driven the turbo-hybrid cars that were on the grid. Hobbs brought a keen eye to the broadcast and some types of experiences never age. He knew what it was like to race in the pressure cooker environments with tough intra-team battles to go along with the ones with outside competitors. Commentary is not about explaining everything that happens on the screen but talking about what is happening and some are much better at it than others.

Though Hobbs had been out of racing nearly 30 years he could still make relevant comments during a broadcast. It was not something that was slipping past him. Others are not the same. For some it becomes obvious that they no longer fit the position. Some will be able to do the job at a high-level for four decades. Others will have a few good years and slip off. Some can't do it at all.

The key thing to remember is not every retiring driver is made for television and even if they are there are very few spots for them and at some point the gig may no longer be for them.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Joey Logano but did you know...

Tetsuta Nagashima won the Moto2 race from Qatar, his first career victory in 70 starts. American Joe Roberts was fourth after winning pole position in Moto2. Albert Arenas won the Moto3 race, his fourth career victory.

Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from Daytona, his fifth victory of the season.

The #93 Racers Edge Motorspors Acura of Shelby Blackstock and Trent Hindman swept the GT World Challenge America races from Austin.

Brandon Jones won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Phoenix.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar's season opener from St. Petersburg.
Formula One's season opener from Melbourne.
Supercars and S5000 will be joining Formula One in Melbourne.
NASCAR has a triple-header in Atlanta.
Supercross is in Indianapolis.
The World Rally Championship is in Mexico.


Thursday, March 5, 2020

2020 Formula One Preview

After a milestone year in 2019, Formula One heads into 2020 with a few new races, one new team name, two new drivers and 21 confirmed races.

Albert Park will host the Australian Grand Prix for the 25th time and it will the season opener on March 15th. Australia is also the first leg of the first back-to-back on the 2020 schedule with the Bahrain Grand Prix following seven days later on March 22nd. The inaugural Vietnamese Grand Prix will take place on April 5th. The race will take place on a 23-turn, 3.484-mile street circuit in Hanoi. The track will feature a 0.9 mile straightaway along with corners that replicate Suzuka, Monaco, Sepang and the Nürburgring.

The next scheduled race will be May 3rd and it is the Dutch Grand Prix from Zandvoort. This is the first time the Netherlands has hosted a Formula One race since 1985. The Zandvoort layout has changed since the last time Formula One was at facility and the track has undergone some re-profiling in preparation for the race. The final corner will have 18 degrees of banking. McLaren has won the last two Dutch Grand Prix with Alain Prost and Niki Lauda.

Zandvoort is also leading off the second back-to-back of the 2020 season with the Spanish Grand Prix following on May 10th. Lewis Hamilton has won the last three races at Circuit de Catalunya. Monaco will be the sixth round of the 2020 season on May 24th and three different drivers from three different manufactures have won the last three Monaco Grand Prix.

Azerbaijan and Canada will be run on back-to-back weeks on June 7th and June 14th. There has yet to be a repeat winner in Azerbaijan. The French Grand Prix will kick off the summer on June 28th and Hamilton will be going for his third consecutive victory at Circuit Paul Ricard. One week later on July 5th, the Red Bull Ring hosts the Austrian Grand Prix and Max Verstappen will be looking for his third consecutive victory in the Alps.

Silverstone is the midway point of the season on July 19th. Hungary will be the final race before the summer break on August 2nd. Formula One returns to action on August 30th with the Belgian Grand Prix from Spa-Francorchamps and Ferrari will be looking for its third consecutive victory at the legendary track. Belgium will also leadoff the fifth back-to-back of the season with the Italian Grand Prix from Monza following on September 6th. Hamilton is tied with Michael Schumacher on five Italian Grand Prix victories.

Singapore and Russia is the sixth back-to-back on September 20th and September 27th. Mercedes is undefeated with eight Russian Grand Prix victories. Mercedes has won six consecutive Japanese Grand Prix and will have a chance to make it seven consecutive victories at Suzuka on October 11th.

The seventh back-to-back of 2020 will be the United States Grand Prix on October 25th and the newly named Mexico City Grand Prix on November 1st. Only once since 2015 has a driver swept the races in the United States and Mexico and that was Hamilton in 2016. Brazil will be the penultimate round on November 15th with the season concluding on November 29th with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Mercedes has six consecutive victories at Abu Dhabi.

The Chinese Grand Prix was scheduled for April 19th but due to the coronavirus outbreak the race has been postponed. The race has not been officially canceled and a makeup date is still possible.

Constructors:
Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team
Lewis Hamilton: #44 Mercedes AMG F1 W11 EQ Performance
What did he do in 2019: 11 victories, 17 podium finishes, 21 points finishes in 21 starts, 413 points and his sixth World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Hamilton is the championship favorite. He is the man to beat until he is beaten and it is that simple. Mercedes did have a few engine woes in testing but I feel like it will get sorted out. We enter 2020 with Hamilton eight victories away from the all-time record and one championship away from tying that all-time record. He has had at least nine victories in the last six seasons. He has scored points in 61 of the last 62 races and he has been on the podium for 47 of those 62 races. The last two years we have seen Hamilton win despite not necessarily having the best car. Ferrari and Red Bull have been getting closer but have not been able to put together 21 races to combat Mercedes. We have six years of Mercedes dominance. It is bound to end and maybe it does in 2020 but it could be one more year of Silver Arrows success.

Valtteri Bottas: #77 Mercedes AMG F1 W11 EQ Performance
What did he do in 2019: Four victories, 15 podium finishes, 19 points finishes in 21 starts, 326 points and second in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Bottas will have another good season behind Hamilton. He will win a few races, he will get more than his fair share of podium finishes, he will score a good number of points and he will make himself look pretty good heading into free agency in 2021. I am not sure he will be second in the world championship again because Ferrari and Red Bull will make strides but this will not be a disappointing season.

Scuderia Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel: #5 Ferrari SF1000
What did he do in 2019: One victory, nine podium finishes, 16 points finishes in 21 starts, 240 points and fifth in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Vettel will be the second-best Ferrari driver. I think he has lost the team. The team knows Charles Leclerc is not only the future but the present. It is just a matter of time before Vettel is shown the door. I think he will win a race because he still has the ability but he is to going to be the number one Ferrari driver majority of the time. That will be tough for him to accept and in 2019 the Ferrari infighting cost the team points. There is a good chance that will continue in 2020.

Charles Leclerc: #16 Ferrari SF1000
What did he do in 2019: Two victories, ten podium finishes, 18 points finishes in 21 starts, 264 points and fourth in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: More victories and a stronger fight at the top of the championship. Ferrari seems really optimistic about the 2020 car and if it is able to hold a candle to Mercedes there is a chance Leclerc can contend for the championship. Leclerc had a better season than 2019 turned out to be and he had a fantastic 2019 season. He should have won Bahrain and Austria but to be a championship-contender he will need more than just four victories. It is possible Leclerc could have a standout season, one with seven to eight victories and takes the fight to Hamilton and Mercedes but it will be something Leclerc has never undertaken before and it is a fight greater than Ferrari has ben able to handle.

Aston Martin Red Bull Racing
Alexander Albon: #23 Red Bull Racing RB16
What did he do in 2019: 13 points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being fourth at Japan, 92 points and eighth in the World Drivers' Championship after running the first 12 races with Toro Rosso and final nine races with Red Bull.
What to expect in 2020: A lot of people being surprised at the end of 2020. Albon is not going to be Red Bull's lead driver in the championship but I think he will be competitive and could pick up a race victory. I think he will get a few podium finishes. When he got into the Red Bull midseason he immediately performed better than Pierre Gasly in the same car. This should be a good year for Albon.

Max Verstappen: #33 Red Bull Racing RB16
What did he do in 2019: Three victories, nine podium finishes, 19 points finishes in 21 starts, 278 points and third in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: It seems like Verstappen is the second of a three-horse race for the championship. Hamilton is the man to beat. Leclerc and Verstappen are incredible. Last year, Verstappen was encouragingly consistent. He was in the top five of the first 12 races. He ended the season with three consecutive podium finishes. Red Bull seems to have it. Honda seems to be there. Everything could be lining up for Verstappen and Red Bull to dethrone Mercedes. Red Bull doesn't have the infighting of Ferrari. Like Leclerc, Verstappen has to do something he has not done in Formula One to defeat Hamilton. He could do it. The pieces are there. Red Bull is up for the fight.

McLaren F1 Team
Lando Norris: #4 McLaren MCL35
What did he do in 2019: 11 points in 21 starts with his best finish being sixth at Bahrain and Austria, 49 points and 11th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Top ten in the championship and closer to his teammate. He was one position from the top ten in the championship in 2019 as a rookie. McLaren is moving in the right direction though this is the team's final year with Renault before switching back to Mercedes engines in 2021. I do not think McLaren is there to compete with the top three teams but it could solidly put itself in fourth. Norris will score a good chunk of points.

Carlos Sainz, Jr.: #55 McLaren MCL35
What did he do in 2019: One podium finishes, a third at Brazil, 13 points finishes in 21 starts, 96 points and sixth in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Another season to be happy with but not finishing in the top six of the championship. I think Albon will get Sainz, Jr. for sixth but seventh would not be something to be ashamed of. Sainz, Jr. is going to mix in with the top three teams a little bit when someone has trouble or retires. I am not sure he can get back to the podium. Brazil last year was such a screwy event but Sainz, Jr. will be ready to swoop in if the there is an opening. Based on testing, McLaren is going to have a tougher fight with Renault.

Renault F1 Team
Daniel Ricciardo: #3 Renault R.S.20
What did he do in 2019: Eight points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being fourth in Italy, 54 points and ninth in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Based on testing, Renault could be making a leap forward. Ricciardo was fourth overall over six days of testing I think he can score more points, he definitely should get more points finishes, and perhaps Renault can get a few top four finish in 2020. Things could get tighter in the middle of the field and things could be better but see Ricciardo slip a few positions in the championship.

Esteban Ocon: #31 Renault R.S.20
What did he do in 2019: Mercedes-AMG test driver.
What to expect in 2020: Ricciardo was fourth in testing and Ocon was sixth. Both were better than the McLarens. I was convinced Ocon had to be better than Ricciardo in 2020 but if Renault is the fourth best team and Ocon is eighth in the championship with Ricciardo in seventh than that is a good year back. Ocon sat on the sidelines last year and was thought to be in waiting to step into a Mercedes race seat should Bottas not get out of his slump. Bottas improved, kept his seat for 2020 and Ocon could not be on the sideline for a second consecutive year, leaving almost no choice but taking a shot at Renault. The French driver goes to the French manufacture and has to get some results. He could improve his stock mightily ahead of 2021 free agency but his 2019 sabbatical could keep him from a larger team snagging him.

Scuderia AlphaTauri Honda
Pierre Gasly: #10 AlphaTauri AT01
What did he do in 2019: One podium finish, second in Brazil, 14 points finishes in 21 starts, 95 points and seventh in the World Drivers' Championship after running the first 12 races with Red Bull Racing before running the final nine races with Toro Rosso.
What to expect in 2020: Maybe I am still under the influence of the end of 2019 but I think Gasly could be the sleeper of 2020. He went from struggling with Red Bull to competitive with Toro Rosso. The Brazil podium came with a lot of fortune but he outscored Daniil Kvyat 14 points to ten points in the final nine races of 2019 with Gasly's runner-up finish removed. Add it and it was 32 to ten in favor of Gasly. In Albon's 12 races with Toro Rosso he scored 16 points. Purely on points per race, Gasly led the Toro Rosso drivers in 2019 with 3.555 to Kyvat's 1.7619 and Albon's 1.333. Is 3.555 points per race good? That averages out to 74.666 points over a 21-race season and good enough for ninth in the 2019 championship, ahead of both Renault drivers. That would be a big boost for the renamed AlphaTauri and if Honda can lift Red Bull to championship-contenders, it could get Gasly to be a regular points scorer.

Daniil Kvyat: #26 AlphaTauri AT01
What did he do in 2019: One podium finish, third in Germany, ten points finishes in 21 starts, 37 points and 13th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: As much as I am sold Gasly could be the surprise of 2020, I think Kvyat will be firmly between 12th and 16th in the championship. He had one rainy day at Hockenheim where Hamilton spun off from the lead, Leclerc threw it away and Gasly hit rock bottom. That allowed Kvyat to pick up 40% of the points he scored for the entire 2019 season and even after that result he could not average two points per race over the entire season. It is crazy to say but Kvyat might finish in the points more in 2020 than he did in 2019 but end up scoring fewer points.

SportPesa Racing Point F1 Team
Sergio Pérez: #11 Racing Point RP20
What did he do in 2019: 11 points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being sixth at Azerbaijan and Belgium, 52 points and tenth in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Pérez was seventh over the six days of testing but I do not think that will stick for the entirety of the 2020 season. The season might start strong but I would expect results to slide and Pérez  to finish outside the top ten in the championship. I think AlphaTauri will end up better in the constructors' championship. As the season goes on I think Alfa Romeo and Haas will be closer to Racing Point. Pérez carried Racing Point's water in 2019 and he will do the same in 2020 but he will not be carrying has heavy of a load.

Lance Stroll: #18 Racing Point RP20
What did he do in 2019: Six points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being fourth at Germany, 21 points and 15th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: More of the same, which is not much. While Pérez was seventh in testing, Stroll was 16th. He picked up 12 points in the German Grand Prix in 2019. He scored nine points in the other 20 races on the 2019 schedule. I think you are looking at a guy who will score about 12 to 15 points in 2020 and combine that with Pérez's 35-45 points and Racing Point will be eighth or worse in the constructors' championship.

Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen
Kimi Räikkönen: #7 Alfa Romeo C39
What did he do in 2019: Nine points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being fourth at Brazil, 43 points and 12th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Räikkönen getting fed up and announcing this will be his final year in Formula One. He is 40 years old. I am not sure he has wanted to be in Formula One the last two years. It is more of a chore for him, one that pays him multi-million dollars but a chore nonetheless. He is pretty good at this chore but he only scored twice in the final ten races of 2019. Alfa Romeo was good in 2019, mostly because of Räikkönen and I expect him to continue the heavy lifting in 2020. I think he can come close to matching his points total from last year.

Antonio Giovinazzi: #99 Alfa Romeo C39
What did he do in 2019: Four points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being fifth at Brazil, 14 points and 17th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Oof... it is hard to see it getting much better. Last year was underwhelming. Giovinazzi was whooped. Räikkönen scored tripled the number of points as the Italian. You would like to think Giovinazzi could score at least half of Räikkönen's points total but that seems to be too much to ask for.

Haas F1 Team
Romain Grosjean: #8 Haas VF-20
What did he do in 2019: Three points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being seventh at Germany, eight points and 19th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: A Haas driver is getting fired during the season. How did this team keep both drivers from 2019? There were times in 2019 it seemed like the team wanted both drivers gone and I am not sure either driver wanted to be there. We are a long way away from when Grosjean was finishing sixth on Haas' debut. This is a breakup that needs to happen. I am not sure where either go from here. Testing was not great with Grosjean in 15th over six days.

Kevin Magnussen: #20 Haas VF-20
What did he do in 2019: Four points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being sixth at Australia, 20 points and 16th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Same as Grosjean, it could be better but Magnussen could be out of the team before we get to the summer break. I think Grosjean is more likely to be fired by the team but Magnussen is more likely the driver that will burn one too many bridges and be kicked out. Magnussen was 18th in testing. Before testing, I could envision both Haas drivers scoring 20-30 and could be eighth in the constructors' championship. That seems much less likely now.

ROKiT Williams Racing
Nicholas Latifi: #6 Williams FW43
What did he do in 2019: Second in the Formula Two championship with four victories, eight podium finishes and 18 points finishes from 22 races.
What to expect in 2020: Another tough season for Williams but hopefully not as tough as 2019. The one thing on Williams' side is the car was reliable. The team had 38 finishes out of a possible 42 finishes. Only Mercedes, Red Bull and Alfa Romeo had more finishes. There is hope for Latifi after he was 17th in testing. The goal for this season is to complete as many laps as possible and just get one point. One point will be a big confidence boost for him as a rookie.

George Russell: #63 Williams FW43
What did he do in 2019: Zero points finishes in 21 starts with his best finish being 11th at Germany, zero points and 20th in the World Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2020: Russell needs to score a point and he was tenth in testing, a big jump up the order. It wasn't on him that he went scoreless in 2019. Robert Kubica only scored one point and that was in the chaotic German Grand Prix and after both Alfa Romeos were penalized 30 seconds for illegal driver aids used at the start of the race. I think things will be better for Williams and Russell, not necessarily spectacular but I think he gets at least three points, a big improvement from 2019.

First practice from Melbourne will be held at 9:00 p.m. ET on Thursday March 12th. Second practice takes place at 1:00 a.m. ET on Friday March 13th. Third practice will be at 11:00 p.m. ET later that Friday with qualifying coming at 2:00 a.m. ET on Saturday March 14th. The Australian Grand Prix will take place at 1:10 a.m. ET on Sunday March 15th.


Wednesday, March 4, 2020

2020 MotoGP Preview

For the 72nd time, Grand Prix motorcycle racing brings together 22 riders will crisscross the globe fighting handlebar to handlebar in hopes of obtaining the glory of a world championship.

Unfortunately, the 2020 season opener at Qatar has been cancelled due to concerns of spreading the coronavirus and Thailand round, scheduled fo March 22nd, has been postponed due to the outbreak. There are hopes the Thailand round could be rescheduled for later in the season. Moto2 and Moto3 races will take place in Qatar, as those teams were in the country for testing before the increased travel restrictions.

As of now, the first scheduled MotoGP race will be in the United States at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas on April 5th before venturing to the only South American round, the Argentine Grand Prix on April 19th.

The first European round will be the Spanish Grand Prix on May 3rd from Jerez and that will round out what would have been the first quarter of the season. The second quarter will begin on May 17th at Le Mans for the French Grand Prix. The first back-to-back of the season will feature the Italian Grand Prix from Mugello on May 31st and the Catalunya Grand Prix from Barcelona on June 7th. The first race of Northern Hemisphere's summer will be the German Grand Prix from Sachsenring on June 21st and the Dutch TT fro Assen concludes the first half of the season on June 28th.

The second half begins on July 12th and for the first time since 1982 the Finnish Grand Prix is on the calendar. The recently opened Kymi Ring will host the race. After Finland, MotoGP will take its summer break and return on August 9th at Brno for the Czech Republic Grand Prix. Red Bull Ring will host the Austrian Grand Prix the following week. Silverstone will host the British Grand Prix on August 30th and Misano will round out the summer portion of the season and the third quarter of the season on September 13th.

Aragón moves back to October 3rd before the three-week Asia-Pacific trip starting on October 18th at Motegi for the Japanese Grand Prix. Phillip Island hosts the Australian Grand Prix on October 25th. The penultimate round will be the Malaysian Grand Prix from Sepang on November 1st. The final round of the 2020 season will be at Valencia on November 15th.

Teams:
Repsol Honda Team
Marc Márquez: #93 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2019: Márquez won his eighth world championship with 420 points after winning 12 of 19 races, finishing second in seven of 19 races and having one retirement after falling at Austin, which ended a streak of 12 consecutive victories in the United States dating back to the 2011 Moto2 race at Indianapolis. Márquez also won ten pole positions and had 12 fastest laps in 2019.
What to expect in 2020: Another year and another shoulder surgery Márquez is recovering from at the start of the season and things are more tense heading into 2020. Last year, the shoulder injury didn't slow Márquez that much but the bike has not been great in testing. He was 13th at the Sepang test at the start of February when he described himself being at 60-70% fitness and he was seventh at the Qatar test. If he is healthy, Márquez is a near lock for the championship but factoring in recovery and a shaky bike, it will be a more difficult season. He could start slow and eventually figure out the bike  but if his shoulder is still bugging him it might be too much to overcome.

Álex Márquez: #73 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2019: This Márquez brother won his second world championship, as he took the Moto2 title with five victories and ten podium finishes and looked the title up in the penultimate race at Sepang.
What to expect in 2020: I do not think Álex is going to challenge his brother and after watching so many other Honda riders struggle with the bike in 2019, and how preseason testing has gone, I do not think Álex will be right at the front from the get-go. I think it will be a year where the results improve over the course of the season and there could be a handful of races where he ends up on the podium but it would not surprise me if he is the third-best Honda rider in the championship, ending up somewhere between sixth and 11th.

Mission Winnow Ducati Team
Andrea Dovizioso: #04 Ducati Desmosedici GP20
What did he do in 2019: Dovizioso was MotoGP vice-champion for the third consecutive season on 269 points after picking up victories at Qatar and Austria and standing on the podium after nine races and scored points in 17 of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: After watching the last three seasons it is hard to say Dovizioso will not be in the mixed. He was far off Márquez in 2019 but he had a good cushion over the rest of the field, however, it appears Yamaha has closed the gap but last year Yamaha topped the Qatar test and Ducati was not up at the front and look at how 2019 turned out. Dovizisio doesn't make mistakes. He brings the bike home and in a good position. I do not see that changing.

Danilo Petrucci: #9 Ducati Desmosedici GP20
What did he do in 2019: Petrucci was sixth in the MotoGP championship on 176 points and he picked up his first MotoGP victory at Mugello. His only other podium finishes were a third place finish at Le Mans and a third place finish at Barcelona. He did score points in 17 of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: A good year but not as good as Dovizioso. I think Petrucci could win another race but he is not going to put together four or five victories. I think his 2020 season will look similar to his 2019 season, maybe a tad worse in that he may only get two podium finishes.

Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP
Maverick Viñales: #12 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2019: Viñales was third in the MotoGP championship on 211 points with victories at Assen and Sepang. He had seven podium finishes, three pole positions and scored points in 15 races but suffered four retirements over the course of the season.
What to expect in 2020: After testing it feels like 2020 could be Viñales' year. Yamaha was good at Sepang and the manufacture was dominant at Qatar. The bike might be there but Viñales cannot have as slow of a start to 2020 as he did to 2019 otherwise he could keep Márquez in the fight and allow fellow Yamaha rider Fabio Quartararo in the mix. He will win a few races but if Márquez is on his game and Honda gets the bike figured out it is going to be tough for him to put together a  championship push.

Valentino Rossi: #46 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2019: Rossi scored 174 pints and was seventh in the MotoGP championship, matching his worst career MotoGP championship finish. Rossi had runner-up finishes at Argentina and in Austin but those were his only podium finishes and he scored points in 15 races.
What to expect in 2020: A good season but far from a great season. I think there is a chance he finishes outside the top seven in the championship. He could get a few podium finishes but a victory is getting harder to see. He was the slowest Yamaha rider at the Qatar test while the other three were 1-2-3. That says it all.

Petronas Yamaha SRT
Fabio Quartararo: #20 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2019: Quartararo's rookie season saw him finish fifth in the championship on 192 points with five runner-up finishes, another two third-place finishes and six pole positions and he scored points in 14 races.
What to expect in 2020: Quartararo will get that elusive first career MotoGP victory and he will earn himself a promotion to the Yamaha factory team. There is a chance Quartararo could be a championship contender. I think he could come close, especially if he gets off to a great start. I think he will finish better than fifth in the championship and push for a top three finish.

Franco Morbidelli: #21 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2019: Morbidelli's sophomore season saw him finish tenth in the championship on 115 points with his best finish being fifth on four occasions. Morbidelli scored points in 13 of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: A better season and perhaps he takes points away from his teammate. I expected Quartararo to be quick in testing but I did not expect Morbidelli to be quicker. If the Yamaha is this good, Morbidelli can get on the podium but I am not convinced he can top Quartararo for best in the team. However, I think there is a chance Morbidelli could beat Rossi in the championship.

Team Suzuki Ecstar
Joan Mir: #36 Suzuki GSX-RR
What did he do in 2019: Mir was 12th in the championship on 92 points with his best finish being fifth at Phillip Island and he missed two races due to a pulmonary contusion. Mir scored points in 12 of his 17 starts.
What to expect in 2020: Mir gets into the top ten of the championship and will improve his career-best finish. He will be challenging for a podium finish a few times but I am not sure he will be challenging for a race victory.

Álex Rins: #42 Suzuki GSX-RR
What did he do in 2019: Rins was fourth in the championship with 205 points after victories at Austin and Silverstone. His only other podium finish was a runner-up finish at Jerez. Rins scored points in 16 of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: Rins could end up in the championship fight but he is going to need a big leap forward. He won two races but he only had one other podium finish. Results could dip a bit in 2020.

Pramac Racing
Jack Miller: #43 Ducati Desmosedici GP20
What did he do in 2019: Miller was eighth in the championship on 165 points. He had five podium finishes, all third-place finishes. He scored points in 15 of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: Miller was the top Ducati rider at the Qatar test but I see a slight dip in 2020. He could still end up on a podium a few times but five times is a lot. I could see him scoring closer to 120 points.

Francesco Bagnaia: #63 Ducati Desmosedici GP20
What did he do in 2019: Bagnaia was 15th in the championship in his rookie season with 54 points. His best finish was fourth at Phillip Island. He scored points in ten of 18 starts and missed the Valencia finale after breaking his collarbone in a practice crash.
What to expect in 2020: A better championship result and much closer to Miller. I think he could end up scoring close to 100 points, pushing for top ten in the championship.

LCR Honda Idemitsu/Castrol
Takaaki Nakagami: #30 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2019: Nakagami scored 74 points and was 13th in the championship but missed the final three races due to a shoulder injury and surgery that followed. Before missing the final three races, Nakagami's best finish was fifth at Mugello and scored points in 11 of 16 races.
What to expect in 2020: Nakagami did well but never really challenged Crutchlow and I think that will continue in 2020. I think he could end up 13th in the championship with 74 points again but this time running all 19 races.

Cal Crutchlow: #35 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2019: Crutchlow was ninth in the championship on 133 points with three podium finishes, including a runner-up finish at Phillip Island. He scored points in 13 of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: Crutchlow is going to be around where he has been since he joined LCR. In his five seasons with LCR, his championship finishes have been eighth, seventh, ninth, seventh and ninth. He will be somewhere between seventh and ninth, get a podium finish or two but I do not think he will be one of the top two Honda riders.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Brad Binder: #33 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2019: Binder was vice-champion in Moto2 with five victories, including ending the season with three consecutive victories, but the late charge was not enough and he fell three points off Álex Márquez in the championship. He stood on the podium nine times.
What to expect in 2020: Binder was strong in Moto2. I think this will be a learning year for him. Things will start slow but results will improve over the course season. I think most of his points finishes come in the back half of 2020. His goal should be to finish ahead of the two Tech3 KTMs.

Pol Espargaró: #44 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2019: Espargaró was 11th in the championship with 100 points and his best finish was sixth at Le Mans. He scored points in 17 of 18 starts. He missed the Aragón race due to a broken left wrist in practice.
What to expect in 2020: Espargaró looked good in early testing but I think it will be difficult to match his output in 2019. The one thing on his side is consistency and if he can bring the bike home at the end of every race that will earn him better finishes than the bike will necessarily warrant but other riders will have issues and that will elevate him. I think he will be between tenth and 14th in the championship.

Aprilia Racing Team Gresini
Andrea Iannone: #29 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2019: Iannone was 16th in the championship on 43 points and his best finish was sixth at Phillip Island. He scored points in ten races and missed Jerez and Misano due to practice crashes.
What to expect in 2020: Suspended for a failed drug test for an anabolic steroid. Iannone has appealed his suspension and there is a chance he could compete in 2020 but it seems unlikely.

Bradley Smith: #38 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2019: Smith ran four MotoGP races as a wildcard entry but scored no points. He did participate in the inaugural MotoE season, where he did not win a race but had three runner-up finishes and a third in six races and he was inaugural vice-champion with 88 points, 11 point off champion Matteo Ferrari.
What to expect in 2020: More races than in 2019 but Smith was slowest during the Qatar test. His goal should be to match Iannone's 2019 output.

Aleix Espargaró: #41 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2019: Espargaró was 14th in the championship on 63 points with his best finish being seventh at Aragón. He scored points in 13 races of 19 races.
What to expect in 2020: Testing results have gone well, he was 13th at Qatar and I think Espargaró could score more points in 2020 and score points in more races.

Red Bull KTM Tech 3
Iker Lecuona: #27 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2019: Lecuona was 11th in the Moto2 championship with his best finish being third at Buriram. He made his MotoGP debut at Valencia last year after Miguel Oliveira suffered a shoulder injury in the Australian Grand Prix. Lecuona qualified 19th but his race ended on lap 14 after an accident with Danilo Petrucci and Johann Zarco.
What to expect in 2020: This is a big jump for Lecuona and I think he will struggle. He is replacing Hafizh Syahrin, who scored nine points, and I think nine points would be a great season for Lecuona.

Miguel Oliveira: #88 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2019: Oliveira was 17th in the championship with 33 points after running 16 of 19 races having missed the final three due to the aforementioned shoulder injury suffered at Phillip Island. His best finish was eighth at Austria.
What to expect in 2020: Early testing results were encouraging for Oliveira and KTM at Sepang. Things kind of took a step back at Qatar. I think he will score more points but it is going to be tough for him to break into the top ten of the championship.

Reale Avintia Racing
Johann Zarco: #5 Ducati Desmosedici GP19
What did he do in 2019: Zarco was 18th in the championship on 30 points. He ran the first 13 races of 2019 with KTM before being released after the Misano race. He returned to substitute for the injured Takaaki Nakagami in the final three races at LCR Honda. His best finish was tenth at Barcelona.
What to expect in 2020: Zarco will only run for Avintia Racing and he was 14th at the Qatar test but I am not sure he is going to be scoring much more than 30 points.

Tito Rabat: #53 Ducati Desmosedici GP19
What did he do in 2019: Rabat was 20th in the championship on 19 points. He ran 17 of 19 races, missing Motegi and Sepang due to a hand injury. His best finish was ninth at Barcelona.
What to expect in 2020: In four MotoGP seasons, Rabat has scored 29 points, 35 points, 35 points and 23 points. I think Rabat will score somewhere between 23 and 35 points.

The season will begin with practice at 5:40 am. ET on Friday March 6th. Second practice will be at 10:00 a.m. ET. Practice will take place at 5:15 a.m. ET on Saturday March 7th with qualifying following at 10:00 a.m. ET. The Qatar Grand Prix will take place at 11:00 a.m. ET on Sunday March 8th.


Monday, March 2, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: IndyCar Engine Penalties 2.0

It was Leap Day and a handful of races took place. The MotoGP race from Qatar has been cancelled due to coronavirus outbreak converns. The Moto2 and Moto3 races will go on as scheduled as the teams were already in Qatar this weekend for testing. Alex Bowman dominated the NASCAR Cup race in Fontana. Formula E continues to have different winners. There were more photo finishes at Phillip Island with the World Superbike and World Supersport seasons starting. Supercross was really just a battle from third to about tenth. Formula One wrapped up testing. Fernando Alonso will drive for McLaren at the Indianapolis 500. IndyCar is bringing back engine penalties, which is where we will start this week. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

IndyCar Engine Penalties 2.0
We are within a fortnight of the 2020 IndyCar season and news is coming out ahead of the first official session.

Two weeks ago, the news was Roger Penske announcing $2 million being added to the Indianapolis 500 purse and new bathrooms and last week it was IndyCar announcing grid penalties for engine changes would return after six seasons without any punishment for an unscheduled engine change.

In the first two years of the DW12-era with the introduction of the 2.2 L turbo-charged V6 engines from Honda and Chevrolet (and Lotus for a year), a ten-grid spot penalty was the punishment if a team made an engine change before it reached its mileage limit.

The grid penalties were met with pushback, especially after the 2012 Long Beach race, where every Chevrolet team took a penalty for an engine change prior to the event for an update. This flipped the grid considerably and grid penalties occurred throughout the 2012 season and into 2013.

In 2012, there were 70 total grid penalties due to engine changes, 13 of which because of Lotus engines. There was at least one grid penalty in every race, except for the Indianapolis 500, a race IndyCar has protected from grid penalties. The fewest entries to take a grid penalty was at St. Petersburg, the season opener, where Simon Pagenaud was the only driver to take a ten-spot slide down the order. The most entries to take a grid penalty were 14 at Long Beach and Fontana.

The good news is in 2013, the number of grid penalties for engine changes dropped significantly. There were only 37 over the entire season. None happened through the first six races. There was at least one grid penalty in 11 of 19 races but five of those races had only one or two penalties. The most was eight at the Fontana finale.

The 2020 regulations for engine changes will be different from the first iteration used at the start of the DW12-era.

The rule for 2020 is each entry is allowed four engines for the season and grid penalties will not start to come into effect until an entry switches to a fifth engine. Switching to a fifth engine will see a six-position penalty if it happens at a road/street course and a nine-position penalty if it happens at an oval. Any change to a sixth, seventh, eighth or more will carry the same penalty.

Unless a team has a disastrous start to the season, we will likely not see grid penalties last Barber, Long Beach, Austin or the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

If you are wondering what it would look like in 2020, let's look back at what happened in 2019.

In 2019, the first driver to exceed the four-engine limit was Josef Newgarden at Mid-Ohio. That would have incurred a six-spot penalty. Six entries exceeded the four-engine limit at Pocono. Takuma Sato took on his fifth engine at Gateway. James Hinchcliffe, Santino Ferrucci and Ryan Hunter-Reay all took their fifth engine at the Laguna Seca finale and Newgarden took a sixth engine before the final race.

As you can see, the number of grid penalties taken would have been much less than what we saw seven and eight years ago. We would be looking at somewhere between 12 and 20 penalties over the entire season. The penalties would come much later in the season and there may be a few races where the number of penalties is exhausting but for the most part we will not see ten, 12 or 14 grid penalties like we did twice in the 2012 season.

Engine changes could shape how the championship plays out. These penalties will come into play late in the season and the timing of it all could dictate who wins the championship. The 2020 season is not like the 2012 season. The finale is Laguna Seca, not Fontana. A six-spot penalty could significantly shift the championship battle. One driver could go from second on the grid, two spots ahead of his or her main championship rival and controlling its destiny to starting eighth and having to fight from behind with the championship rival now five spots ahead.

The 2012 finale at Fontana was a 500-mile oval race. Starting position didn't really matter. You could start 20th but in ten laps be in the top ten and still have 480 miles left. While we saw a fair amount of passing in the 2019 Laguna Seca race with Will Power going from seventh to second, Felix Rosenqvist going from 14th to fifth, Sébastien Bourdais going from 19th to seventh and Ryan Hunter-Reay clawing his way back to tenth after having a long first pit stop dropped him outside the top twenty there is no guarantee that will happen again.

The one thing that has to be said is these penalties are a lot more forgiving. Six spots is much better than ten. Dropping from pole position to seventh is much better than dropping to 11th. If the 2020 season plays out similar to 2019, we will likely not start seeing penalties until Iowa at the earliest. A nine-spot penalty at Iowa is not great but it is surmountable. It would be tougher to make up at Gateway. Mid-Ohio and Portland have seen good amounts of passing. After all, last year at Mid-Ohio the podium were drivers that started eighth, sixth and tenth. A grid penalty for an engine change would not be a reason to lose all hope.

There is a lot of pushback to IndyCar re-introducing grid penalties for engine changes. No one was really advocating for grid penalties to return. We were going to be fine in 2020 if grid penalties did not exist but this could be a case of protecting teams from themselves.

The original penalty for exceeding the four-engine limit was that entry could not count toward the manufactures' championship but that really is a slap on the wrist. Do you really think Josef Newgarden or Alexander Rossi cared their results could count toward the manufactures' championship? No, the focus was on the drivers' championship.

We have an increased incentive for teams not to take a fifth or sixth engine. Teams now have to think twice before making a change. Instead of having a championship team gaming the system to make sure it could take a fresh engine at the finale and really having no ill-effect other than making Honda or Chevrolet rely on an entry further down the order to score toward the manufactures' championship, a team could be set behind the eight ball if it chooses to take a new engine and exceed the four-engine limit. That is a sort of a good thing. It will add another layer of strategy to the season and it will reward teams can do not exceed the four-engine limit.

I do not buy the thought processes that an engine failure is something out of a team's control and teams should not be penalized for it. The team put the engine in the car. It tuned the engine. A driver puts it under a certain amount of stress. It has some control over it. A team isn't rooting for an engine failure but to act like it is completely innocent when one does go is naïve. A team plays a part in an engine expiring. It sucks when it happens and it sucks to be penalized because of it but those are the rules and everyone is competing with the same rulebook. Teams are going to have three free changes if they did it. It is when teams go back for a fourth change that will end up costing them.

A lot of anger is from fear because we see grid penalties in Formula One and Formula One is kind of the extreme of grid penalties to the point they are farcical. It doesn't make sense when a car takes a 50-spot penalty and there are only 20 cars in the races. IndyCar's penalty system is much more controlled and it will not have the same frequent as Formula One. It is going to mix up the field in some circumstances but it is not going to be every race. It is not going to make qualifying pointless. Eleven teams ran an entire season without exceeding the four-engine limit. There may be one or two races where the number of penalties is notable but for the most part it will be one or two penalties in a given race.

When compared to NASCAR or Formula One, IndyCar is almost too low when it comes to grid penalties. There has to be times when someone has to go to the rear, whether it is because of an engine change, going to a backup car or failing inspection. It would be foolish to sell to people that IndyCar is the one series where 100% of the time everyone is good to go after qualifying and there are no reasons for any entries to be moved down the starting order. There has to be the occasional change to the starting order because no one is perfect and every once in a while someone has to pay a price for a decision made.

People should not get worked up over the new grid penalties for engine changes. They are going to occur infrequently. There is a chance it could affect a championship-contending driver late in the season and it will be alright. It adds another dynamic to the game and gives teams more to ponder when making crucial decisions. Some decisions have to haves consequences. What fun is it if there is no risk of choosing incorrectly?

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Alex Bowman  but did you know...

Harrison Burton won the Grand National Series race from Fontana, his first career victory.

Toprak Razgatlioglu (Race one), Jonathan Rea (SuperPole race) and Alex Lowes (Race two) split the World Superbike races from Phillip Island. Andrea Locatelli won the World Supersport race on debut.

Ken Roczen won the Supercross race from Atlanta, his third victory of 2020.

António Félix da Costa won Formula E's Marrakesh ePrix, becoming the fifth different winner in five races in the 2019-20 season and the championship leader.

Coming Up This Weekend
Only Moto2 and Moto3 will race at Qatar.
NASCAR has one final race out west at Phoenix.
Supercross heads to Daytona Bike Week.
The GT World Challenge America series begins its season in Austin.