Friday, February 25, 2022

Let's Look at the League: February 2022

With another new IndyCar season brings back the head-to-head league format I have been following for the previous three seasons. 

We know how the points system works and how the championship is decided, but this looks at IndyCar as if it were a sports league. Each race sees the teams paired head-to-head and whichever driver finishes better gets a victory. At the end of the regular season, there is a playoff to determine the champion while the worst teams from the first league are relegated and the best teams from the second league are promoted. 

The increased car count has forced an alteration to the structure, but this is a good thing. 

Where were we? 
Josef Newgarden won his third consecutive championship in the #2 Team Penske entry after defeating Patricio O'Ward and the #5 Arrow McLaren SP entry in the final. The #9 Ganassi and #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entries were each in the semifinal. The #12 and #22 Penske entries were each quarterfinalists, as were the #51 Dale Coyne Racing entry and the #15 RLLR entry. 

Andretti Autosport's #26, #27 and #28 entries all missed the playoffs but remain in league one. Álex Palou might have won the IndyCar championship, but he couldn't get the #10 Ganassi entry into the playoffs, finishing sixth in conference, but avoiding relegation. The #18 Coyne entry also remains in league one.

The #21 Ed Carpenter Racing and the #7 AMSP entry were relegated. Promoted directly from league two were the #8 Ganassi entry and the #60 Meyer Shank Racing entry. The final spot in league one was decided via a promotion playoff, and the #3 Penske entry won it over the #29 Andretti entry. 

There is one problem. The #22 Penske entry is no longer running, as Penske downsizes to three cars. Simon Pagenaud will remain in league one, as Pagenaud takes over the #60 MSR entry, but how should we fill that final spot?

I thought about keeping a team up, but instead I decided to put the #45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry into league one. Why? Because Jack Harvey will be driving that car and he earned the #60 MSR entry its promotion. So no offense to Devlin DeFrancesco, Rinus VeeKay or Felix Rosenqvist, but Harvey deserved this. 

How does league one look? Each conference is set via entrants' points from last season. 

Conference One:
#10 Ganassi
#9 Ganassi
#26 Andretti
#12 Penske
#27 Andretti
#51 DCR
#3 Penske
#45 RLLR

Conference Two:
#2 Penske
#5 AMSP
#8 Ganassi
#15 RLLR
#30 RLLR
#60 MSR
#28 Andretti
#18 DCR

As for league two, we have a little problem. IndyCar will have 26 full-time teams this season. If 16 are in league one, that means there are ten left. Last year, league two had eight teams, as it has had since the inception of this hypothetical. With ten teams, it doesn't quite fit into the 14-week schedule. With 17 total races, it is possible to make league two a complete round robin, and that is what will be done. 

League two will be 18 weeks, with all 17 races and Indianapolis 500 qualifying determining who will earn promotion. The top three from league two will earn automatic promotion. The bottom entry from each conference in league one will be automatically relegated. To keep it interesting, sixth and seventh from each conference will move to a relegation playoff in an interconference format. Sixth from conference one will face seventh from conference two and vice versa. The entry to lose twice in the playoff will be relegated. 

League Two: 
#21 ECR
#20 ECR
#14 Foyt
#29 Andretti
#7 AMSP
#48 Ganassi
#06 MSR
#4 Foyt
#77 JHR
#11 Foyt

Schedule

League One:

Week 1 (ST. PETERSBURG):

#10 CGR vs. #45 RLLR

#9 CGR vs. #3 Penske

#26 Andretti vs. #51 DCR

#12 Penske vs. #27 Andretti

 

#2 Penske vs. #18 DCR

#5 AMSP vs. #28 Andretti

#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR

#15 RLLR vs. #30 RLLR

 

Week 2 (TEXAS):

#10 CGR vs. #3 Penske

#9 CGR vs. #45 RLLR

#26 Andretti vs. #27 Andretti

#12 Penske vs. #51 DCR

 

#2 Penske vs. #28 Andretti

#5 AMSP vs. #18 DCR

#8 CGR vs. #30 RLLR

#15 RLLR vs. #60 MSR

 

Week 3 (LONG BEACH):

#10 CGR vs. #51 DCR

#9 CGR vs. #12 Penske
#26 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR

#27 Andretti vs. #3 Penske

 

#2 Penske vs. #60 MSR

#5 AMSP vs. #15 RLLR

#8 CGR vs. #18 DCR

#30 RLLR vs. #28 Andretti

 

Week 4 (BARBER):

#10 CGR vs. #27 Andretti

#9 CGR vs. #51 DCR

#26 Andretti vs. #3 Penske

#12 Penske vs. #45 RLLR

 

#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR

#5 AMSP vs. #60 MSR

#8 CGR vs. #28 Andretti

#15 RLLR vs. #18 DCR

 

Week 5 (GPOI):

#10 CGR vs. #12 Penske

#9 CGR vs. #26 Andretti

#27 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR

#51 DCR vs. #3 Penske

 

#2 Penske vs. #15 RLLR

#5 AMSP vs. #8 CGR

#30 RLLR vs. #18 DCR

#60 MSR vs. #28 Andretti

 

Week 6 (INDIANAPOLIS 500):

#10 CGR vs. #26 Andretti

#9 CGR vs. #27 Andretti

#12 Penske vs. #3 Penske

#51 DCR vs. #45 RLLR

 

#2 Penske vs. #8 CGR

#5 AMSP vs. #30 RLLR

#15 RLLR vs. #28 Andretti

#60 MSR vs. #18 DCR

 

Week 7 (BELLE ISLE):

#10 CGR vs. #9 CGR

#26 Andretti vs. #12 Penske

#27 Andretti vs. #51 DCR

#3 Penske vs. #45 RLLR

 

#2 Penske vs. #5 AMSP

#8 CGR vs. #15 RLLR

#30 RLLR vs. #60 MSR

#28 Andretti vs. #18 DCR

 

Week 8 (ROAD AMERICA):

#10 CGR vs. #45 RLLR

#9 CGR vs. #3 Penske

#26 Andretti vs. #51 DCR

#12 Penske vs. #27 Andretti

 

#2 Penske vs. #18 DCR

#5 AMSP vs. #28 Andretti

#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR

#15 RLLR vs. #30 RLLR

 

Week 9 (MID-OHIO):

#10 CGR vs. #3 Penske

#9 CGR vs. #45 RLLR

#26 Andretti vs. #27 Andretti

#12 Penske vs. #51 DCR

 

#2 Penske vs. #28 Andretti

#5 AMSP vs. #18 DCR

#8 CGR vs. #30 RLLR

#15 RLLR vs. #60 MSR

 

Week 10 (TORONTO):

#10 CGR vs. #51 DCR

#9 CGR vs. #12 Penske
#26 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR

#27 Andretti vs. #3 Penske

 

#2 Penske vs. #60 MSR

#5 AMSP vs. #15 RLLR

#8 CGR vs. #18 DCR

#30 RLLR vs. #28 Andretti

 

Week 11 (IOWA):

#10 CGR vs. #27 Andretti

#9 CGR vs. #51 DCR

#26 Andretti vs. #3 Penske

#12 Penske vs. #45 RLLR

 

#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR

#5 AMSP vs. #60 MSR

#8 CGR vs. #28 Andretti

#15 RLLR vs. #18 DCR

 

Week 12 (IOWA):

#10 CGR vs. #12 Penske

#9 CGR vs. #26 Andretti

#27 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR

#51 DCR vs. #3 Penske

 

#2 Penske vs. #15 RLLR

#5 AMSP vs. #8 CGR

#30 RLLR vs. #18 DCR

#60 MSR vs. #28 Andretti

 

Week 13 (IMS ROAD COURSE):

#10 CGR vs. #26 Andretti

#9 CGR vs. #27 Andretti

#12 Penske vs. #3 Penske

#51 DCR vs. #45 RLLR

 

#2 Penske vs. #8 CGR

#5 AMSP vs. #30 RLLR

#15 RLLR vs. #28 Andretti

#60 MSR vs. #18 DCR

 

Week 14 (NASHVILLE):

#10 CGR vs. #9 CGR

#26 Andretti vs. #12 Penske

#27 Andretti vs. #51 DCR

#3 Penske vs. #45 RLLR

 

#2 Penske vs. #5 AMSP

#8 CGR vs. #15 RLLR

#30 RLLR vs. #60 MSR

#28 Andretti vs. #18 DCR


League Two

Week 1:

#21 ECR vs. #11 Foyt

#20 ECR vs. #77 JHR

#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt

#29 Andretti vs. #06 MSR

#7 AMSP vs. #48 CGR

 

Week 2:

#21 ECR vs. #77 JHR

#20 ECR vs. #11 Foyt

#14 Foyt vs. #06 MSR

#29 Andretti vs. #7 AMSP

#48 CGR vs. #4 Foyt

 

Week 3:

#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt

#20 ECR vs. #06 MSR

#14 Foyt vs #11 Foyt

#29 Andretti vs. #48 CGR

#7 AMSP vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 4:

#21 ECR vs. #06 MSR

#20 ECR vs. #4 Foyt

#14 Foyt vs. #7 AMSP

#29 Andretti vs. #11 Foyt

#48 CGR vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 5:

#21 ECR vs. #48 CGR

#20 ECR vs. #29 Andretti

#14 Foyt vs. #77 JHR

#7 AMSP vs. #11 Foyt

#06 MSR vs. #4 Foyt

 

*Week 6* (Indianapolis 500 Qualifying):

#21 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

#20 ECR vs. #14 Foyt

#29 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt

#48 CGR vs. #11 Foyt

#06 MSR vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 7:

#21 ECR vs. #29 Andretti

#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

#14 Foyt vs. #48 CGR

#06 MSR vs. #11 Foyt

#4 Foyt vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 8:

#21 ECR vs. #14 Foyt

#20 ECR vs. #48 CGR

#29 Andretti vs. #77 JHR

#7 AMSP vs. #06 MSR

#4 Foyt vs. #11 Foyt

 

Week 9:

#21 ECR vs. #20 ECR

#14 Foyt vs. #29 Andretti

#7 AMSP vs. #4 Foyt

#48 CGR vs. # 06 MSR

#77 JHR vs. #11 Foyt

 

Week 10:

#21 ECR vs. #11 Foyt

#20 ECR vs. #77 JHR

#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt

#29 Andretti vs. #06 MSR

#7 AMSP vs. #48 CGR

 

Week 11:

#21 ECR vs. #77 JHR

#20 ECR vs. #11 Foyt

#14 Foyt vs. #06 MSR

#29 Andretti vs. #7 AMSP

#48 CGR vs. #4 Foyt


Week 12:

#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt

#20 ECR vs. #06 MSR

#14 Foyt vs #11 Foyt

#29 Andretti vs. #48 CGR

#7 AMSP vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 13:

#21 ECR vs. #06 MSR

#20 ECR vs. #4 Foyt

#14 Foyt vs. #7 AMSP

#29 Andretti vs. #11 Foyt

#48 CGR vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 14:

#21 ECR vs. #48 CGR

#20 ECR vs. #29 Andretti

#14 Foyt vs. #77 JHR

#7 AMSP vs. #11 Foyt

#06 MSR vs. #4 Foyt

 

Week 15:

#21 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

#20 ECR vs. #14 Foyt

#29 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt

#48 CGR vs. #11 Foyt

#06 MSR vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 16:

#21 ECR vs. #29 Andretti

#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

#14 Foyt vs. #48 CGR

#06 MSR vs. #11 Foyt

#4 Foyt vs. #77 JHR

 

Week 17:

#21 ECR vs. #14 Foyt

#20 ECR vs. #48 CGR

#29 Andretti vs. #77 JHR

#7 AMSP vs. #06 MSR

#4 Foyt vs. #11 Foyt

 

Week 18:

#21 ECR vs. #20 ECR

#14 Foyt vs. #29 Andretti

#7 AMSP vs. #4 Foyt

#48 CGR vs. # 06 MSR

#77 JHR vs. #11 Foyt

Notable Matchups (League One): 
Week one starts with Scott Dixon vs. Scott McLaughlin in an all-Kiwi affair. Will Power and Alexander Rossi face-off. Romain Grosjean's first race with Andretti is against Patricio O'Ward. Christian Lundgaard's IndyCar career begins with a matchup against his oldest teammate Graham Rahal. 

Colton Herta and Rossi meet in Texas, which could decide who has the early upper hand in the Andretti battle.

Josef Newgarden takes on his old teammate Simon Pagenaud at Long Beach, while Dixon faces Power. 

Álex Palou returns to Barber, the site of his first career victory, to face Rossi. 

Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Palou vs. Power. Dixon vs. Herta. Rossi vs. Jack Harvey. Newgarden vs. Rahal.

Indianapolis 500: Palou vs. Herta. Dixon vs. Rossi. Power vs. McLaughlin. 

We haven't mentioned Takuma Sato yet, but he faces Rossi at Belle Isle. We will also see Palou vs. Dixon, Newgarden vs. O'Ward and Ericsson vs. Rahal in the Motor City. 

Week eight at Road America repeats the week one matchups, as we begin the second half of the regular season.

It is important to note that Newgarden all face Lundgaard and Rahal at Iowa while Palou will take on Rossi and Power. 

At the July IMS road course weekend, Palou is matched with Herta, Dixon with Rossi, O'Ward with Lundgaard and Rahal with Grosjean. 

Nashville will be the final regular season round and it again has the Palou-Dixon matchup, Herta vs. Power, Rossi takes on Sato, Newgarden is against O'Ward, and we haven't mentioned David Malukas yet, but he will face Grosjean. 

Notable Matchups (League Two):
Kyle Kirkwood starts his season against teammate Dalton Kellett at St. Petersburg. Tatiana Calderón begins against Rinus VeeKay.

In week two, Jimmie Johnson's first IndyCar oval race will be against Kellett at Texas. Conor Daly is paired with the unknown driver of the #11 Foyt entry. VeeKay will face Callum Ilott. Kirkwood has Hélio Castroneves.

At Long Beach, Felix Rosenqvist has Ilott, Johnson takes on Devlin DeFrancesco and Daly has Castroneves. 

On the IMS road course, Kirkwood meets Ilott. 

Indianapolis 500 qualifying sees VeeKay vs. Rosenqvist, Daly vs. Kirkwood, an all-Canadian meeting of DeFrancesco and Kellett, Johnson against the unknown #11 Foyt driver and Castroneves vs. Ilott.

For the Indianapolis 500, VeeKay vs. DeFrancesco, Daly vs. Rosenqvist, Kirkwood vs. Johnson, Castroneves against the unknown #11 Foyt entry and Kellett faces Ilott. 

Rosenqvist is scheduled to meet Castroneves at Belle Isle. 

Road America is the final race before rematches begin and the first half of the regular season ends with VeeKay vs. Daly, Kirkwood vs. DeFrancesco and Johnson vs. Castroneves. 

Kirkwood heads to his favorite track, Mid-Ohio, to face Kellett. 

In Toronto, DeFrancesco will face Rosenqvist and Kellett has Johnson. 

At the Iowa doubleheader, Johnson has DeFrancesco and Ilott. Daly faces Castroneves and Kellett. Castroneves will have VeeKay in the second Iowa race. 

Coincidentally, the matchups in the first IMS road course race are repeated in the second IMS road course race in July. 

VeeKay has Rosenqvist in Nashville. 

At Gateway, Daly is paired with Rosenqvist, Kirkwood has Johnson and Castroneves faces the unknown #11 Foyt entry. 

VeeKay and Kirkwood meet in Portland, as do Daly and Johnson, Rosenqvist and Castroneves, and the all-Foyt matchup of Kellett and Calderón.

In the Laguna Seca season finale, VeeKay is against Daly, Kirkwood has DeFrancesco, Rosenqvist takes on Kellett, Johnson battles Castroneves and Ilott meets Calderón. 

Gateway and Portland will be the location of the relegation playoff, with the third relegated entry being decided in Oregon. Gateway, Portland and Laguna Seca will comprise the playoffs. 

Conference one has two Ganassi entries, two Penske entries and two Andretti entries. Good luck to Takuma Sato and Jack Harvey. 

Conference two has seven different teams represented. Because Grosjean takes over the #28 Andretti entry, he has some tough matchups early on, beginning the season against O'Ward and Newgarden. The first two weeks could be crucial in deciding who tops that conference and who makes it to the playoffs.

League Two is wide open, as there is no clear promotion favorite, and there are flaws in each entry. VeeKay started well but was poor in the second half of 2021. Daly has difficulty finishing in the top ten. Kirkwood is driving for Foyt. DeFrancesco is driving for Andretti, but his talent is questionable. Rosenqvist is inconsistent. Johnson's best finish on a road/street course was 17th. Castroneves is coming back after four years as a part-timer. Kellett seems unlikely to get promoted. Ilott is driving for Juncos Hollinger Racing and retired from two of three starts last year. Calderón is new to IndyCar, and we don't know who will be driving that car on the ovals. 

From Newgarden looking to remain undefeated and take his fourth league championship, Palou attempting to make the playoffs, someone having to break out of League Two, there is plenty to watch for this season. 


Thursday, February 24, 2022

Track Walk: St. Petersburg 2022

The first round of the 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season takes place on the streets of St. Petersburg. For the first time since 2019, the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg opens the IndyCar season after two delayed years due to the global pandemic. This is the second time St. Petersburg has taken place in February. The first was the inaugural version in 2003. This will be the 12th time St. Petersburg has opened an IndyCar season. In only three of those seasons did the St. Petersburg season opener winner go on to win the IndyCar championship. Winning the season opener has been a good omen recently. The last three champions all won the season opener. This IndyCar season will consist of 17 races and last 196 days until the Laguna Seca season finale on September 11.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday February 27 with green flag scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider, Kevin Lee and Dave Burns will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 3:40 p.m. ET (45 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 9:00 a.m. ET (45 minutes)
Qualifying: 12:30 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 8:45 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 12:30 p.m. ET (100 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

Test, Test, Test
With an earlier start to the season, IndyCar had less testing than we are accustomed to this winter, and the only time we had majority of the teams together on track was at Sebring on February 14 and February 15. 

Over the two days, only four drivers ran both sessions, all four are rookies while the rest of the field only ran one of the two days. 

On February 14, Colton Herta led the way at 51.851 seconds with rookie David Malukas 0.007 seconds off in second for Dale Coyne Racing while Romain Grosjean made it two Andretti Autosport cars in the top three at 52.021 seconds. 

Josef Newgarden was the top Chevrolet driver at 52.059 seconds with Will Power rounding out the top five at 52.211 seconds. Only 0.086 seconds covered Power, Graham Rahal, Felix Rosenqivst and Alexander Rossi. Scott McLaughlin rounded out the top ten at 52.329 seconds.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers Jack Harvey and Christian Lundgaard ran near identical laps with Harvey at 52.362 second and Lundgaard at 52.373 seconds. Kyle Kirkwood was just ahead of fellow rookie Devlin DeFrancesco. Patricio O'Ward was a surprising 14th, but only 0.573 seconds off Herta's top time. 

Callum Ilott ran at 52.481-second lap with Tatiana Calderón at a 52.54, and Kevin Magnussen completed the test driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. Magnussen was slowest at 52.839 seconds. 

On day two, Meyer Shank Racing went 1-2 with Simon Pagenaud leading Hélio Castroneves. Pagenaud's top lap was 52.113 seconds and Castroneves was at 52.194 seconds. Marcus Ericsson was third, 0.097 seconds off Pagneaud. Rinus VeeKay was fourth at 52.269 seconds. Kirkwood made up a little time from day one, up to a 52.338-second lap. 

Conor Daly was sixth at 52.414 seconds, only 0.008 seconds ahead of Scott Dixon. Ilott was ninth quickest, but his top time dropped to a 52.529. Malukas fell to tenth on the day with his best lap being 52.723 seconds, but Malukas was directly ahead of his Coyne teammate Takuma Sato, 0.079 seconds quicker than the two-time Indianapolis 500 winner. 

Jimmie Johnson's best lap was 52.947 seconds, ahead of Dalton Kellett at 53.025 seconds and Calderón's 53.047. 

Grid Shuffle
There has been a lot of movement this IndyCar offseason, and of the 26 drivers entered this weekend, eight seats have seen a driver change. 

Dale Coyne Racing did a complete shift change. Ed Jones and Romain Grosjean are gone, David Malukas takes over the #18 Honda and Takuma Sato will fill the #51 Honda, still run in partnership with Rick Ware Racing.

Grosjean left Coyne to join Andretti Autosport and run the #28 Honda. Devlin DeFrancesco moves up from Indy Lights to takeover Andretti's #29 Honda. Grosjean and DeFrancesco replace Ryan Hunter-Reay and James Hinchcliffe respectively, two drivers that do not have full-time rides in 2022.

Kyle Kirkwood takes his Indy Lights championship scholarship money to A.J. Foyt Racing and occupies the #14 Chevrolet, replacing Sébastien Bourdais, who has moved to Chip Ganassi Racing's sports car program. Foyt has also expanded to three cars with Tatiana Calderón in the #11 Chevrolet for road and street courses with an unannounced driver to contest the oval races in that entry. 

From one Frenchman to another, Simon Pagenaud leaves Team Penske to fill in the #60 Honda at Meyer Shank Racing. While Pagenaud is new, Hélio Castroneves returns with MSR, but Castroneves will be full-time in the #06 Honda after only running six races last year. 

Jack Harvey leaves Meyer Shank Racing to join Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing in the #45 Honda while RLLR will also field Christian Lundgaard full-time in the #30 Honda, as RLLR expands to three cars.

With 26 cars entered for this weekend's race, it will match the largest field in St. Petersburg history. The 2008 race had 26 cars, as did the 2012 race, the first race of the DW12-era.

The Men on Top
It is a new season, but we must remember what happened the last time IndyCar was on track, and there were a few notable faces that ended 2021 on top. 

Colton Herta ended 2021 with two consecutive victories. He dominated Laguna Seca from second on the grid and went from 14th to first at Long Beach. It was the first time Herta had won consecutive races in his IndyCar career, and Herta returns to the location of his first victory of the 2021 season. Last year, Herta led 97 of 100 laps from pole position on his way to victory at St. Petersburg, Andretti Autosport's third victory in the event.

While Herta was winning races, Álex Palou claimed the championship, and his season should not be overlooked. Palou also won three races. His eight podium finishes were the most in IndyCar last season. He ended the season with three consecutive top five results, and he had six top five finishes in the final nine events. Palou was never lower than third in the championship in 2021 and he led the championship after 11 of 17 races.

A two-time St. Petersburg winner, Josef Newgarden looks to start the season with his third gulf coast triumph. Newgarden had seven consecutive top ten finishes to close out the 2021 season and if it wasn't for a faulty gearbox late at Road America, he very well could have ten consecutive top ten finishes, but nine out of ten isn't bad. Newgarden has been in the top five of the championship for six consecutive seasons. 

Patricio O'Ward was one of the main title contender last year, and if it wasn't for everything going wrong at Long Beach, he would have been second in the final championship standings instead of third. O'Ward was still the first driver to win multiple races last year. His nine top five finishes were tied with Scott Dixon for second most, only behind Palou. O'Ward did lead the championship after two races in 2021 and he was in the top five after 16 of 17 races.

It would not be a proper IndyCar season without mentioning Scott Dixon being one of the drivers on top. Last year might have been a down year for Dixon, finishing fourth in the championship with only one victory, but he was never outside the top five of the championship. Dixon led 401 laps, the most in IndyCar. It was the fifth consecutive season Dixon had at least five podium finishes. 

There are many drivers capable of winning in IndyCar, but these five drivers are who the field must get through.

Starting the Season With a First
Last year, Álex Palou opened the season with a first-time winner. That set the tone for the first half of the 2021 season. There were four first-time winners in the first seven races. The 2022 begins with a handful of hopefuls for a first IndyCar victory. 

Romain Grosjean came close last year with two runner-up finishes, both of which came on the IMS road course. Grosjean is following a similar path to Palou, as this will be Grosjean's sophomore season and he has joined a new team, Andretti Autosport. The problem for Grosjean is his street course results were poor in 2021. His best finish was at St. Petersburg was 13th, but he finished 20th or worse in the other four street course events. 

Jack Harvey will be entering his third full season, and fourth as an IndyCar regular. After five years in the Meyer Shank Racing fold, Harvey moves to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and with his 50th start occurring at St. Petersburg, he has reached an inflection point for his career. Only 28 drivers have had their first career victory come in their 50th start or later. Harvey was fourth at St. Petersburg last year, his first top five finish on a street course in IndyCar.

While Harvey is hitting 50 starts, Conor Daly has already eclipsed 80 starts and has yet to win a race in his IndyCar career. Seven drivers have taken more than 80 starts to get a first career victory. The one thing Daly has against him is he hasn't had a top ten finish in his last 21 starts. He hasn't had a top five finish in his last 43 starts, and his only top five finish on a street course was the first Belle Isle race in 2016 when he finished second. Daly's only top 15 finish at St. Petersburg was 13th in 2016. 

Scott McLaughlin will start his sophomore season and McLaughlin is set to make his third St. Petersburg start. He was 22nd on debut at St. Petersburg in 2020 but finished 11th here in 2021. He ended the season with an 11th at Long Beach. McLaughlin could become the sixth different Penske driver to win at St. Petersburg and a Team Penske victory would be the team's tenth in St. Petersburg.

The one thing against these first-time hopefuls is only twice has a driver scored their first career victory at St. Petersburg: Graham Rahal in 2008 and James Hinchcliffe in 2013.

And The Rookies
While there are a few veterans looking for a first career victory, there are a few drivers hoping to start a career on a spectacular note. Victory is unlikely, but six drivers make up the rookie class of 2022 as they all hope to start highly successful careers. 

Four drivers will be making debut, leading with the top two from Indy Lights, Kyle Kirkwood and David Malukas. Kirkwood won all three Road to Indy championships in successive seasons. He also had two victories, three runner-up finishes and a fifth in six Road to Indy starts at St. Petersburg. He will be driving for A.J. Foyt Racing, which finished in the top five the last two years in this race with Sébastien Bourdais. 

Malukas spilt the St. Petersburg Indy Lights weekend with Kirkwood last year. Thirteen points separated the two drivers in the championship, though Kirkwood clinched the title a race early. Kirkwood did hold the edge with a record-tying ten victories in a season to Malukas' seven. Dale Coyne Racing has two St. Petersburg victories, both at the hands of Sébastien Bourdais. 

Devlin DeFrancesco is the third Indy Lights participate to move up to IndyCar this year. DeFrancesco was sixth in the championship with his best finish being third in both Barber Motorsports Park races. The Andretti Autosport driver has made four St. Petersburg starts. He was seventh and sixth in Indy Pro 2000 in 2020 and he was 12th and fifth in Indy Lights last year. 

Tatiana Calderón joins IndyCar after spending the last two seasons split between LMP2 sports car competition and Super Formula in Japan. Calderón has competed at St. Petersburg twice before, both times in Star Mazda. Neither result was anything to brag about, 19th in 2010, and 18th in 2011 after being caught in an opening lap accident from sixth on the grid. Calderón will become the 12th woman to start an IndyCar race.

Callum Ilott and Christian Lundgaard are back after making their IndyCar debuts in 2021. This will be Ilott's fourth start after running the final three races last year. He is looking to improve on his best finish, which was 22nd, and he did retire from two of the three races. Lundgaard made a notable first impression in the August IMS road course race, qualifying fourth and leading during the first pit cycle, before finishing 12th as he adjusted to the different tire compounds. 

The last seven IndyCar Rookies of the Year have represented seven different countries. Three of the last four IndyCar Rookies of the Year did not compete in Indy Lights the season before and came from another championship. 

Road to Indy
Opening alongside IndyCar are all three Road to Indy series. 

Indy Lights has 14 cars entered for the season opener. 

Linus Lundqvist was third in the championship last year with three victories and he is the top returning driver from 2021. Lundqvist leads the HMD Motorsports lineup. Danial Frost moves over from Andretti Autosport and will be his teammate while Christian Bogle joins after driving for Carlin. 

Andretti Autosport will continue with a four-car team, but it is a complete shift change from last year. Christian Rasmussen moves up after winning the Indy Pro 2000 championship along with Hunter McElrea, who was third in the championship. Sting Ray Robb moves over from Juncos Racing and after finishing eighth in the Indy Lights championship. Matthew Brabham returns to Indy Lights for the first time since 2015.

Benjamin Pedersen and Manuel Sulaimán will pair at Global Racing Group with HMD Motorsports. Pedersen was fourth in the Indy Lights championship last year. Sulaimán won in Indy Pro 2000 at Road America before joining Indy Lights for the final three rounds in 2021. 

Ernie Francis, Jr. joins Indy Lights with the Force Indy organization. Francis, Jr. has spent the last eight years primarily in the Trans-Am Series, but 2021 was a breakout year having competed in the Superstar Racing Experience and finishing second in that championship, and he also ran Formula Regional Americas, winning three races and ending up third for that title. 

TJ Speed Motorsports will field James Roe, Jr. and Kyffin Simpson. Both drivers were in Indy Pro 2000 in 2021, and Roe, Jr. won last year's season finale at Mid-Ohio. Jacob Abel moves up from Indy Pro 2000 with his family's team and Antonio Serravalle will be his teammate at St. Petersburg. 

The Indy Lights race will be held at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday February 27. 

Indy Pro 2000 shows up to St. Petersburg with 16 cars with the 2021 U.S. F2000 champion Kiko Porto leading the way. Porto moves up with DEForce Racing with Nolan Siegel, who was eighth in U.S. F2000 last year.

Porto will have to take on Braden Eves, who was second in Indy Pro 2000 last year with three victories. Eves moves to Jay Howard Driver Development, where his teammates will be Wyatt Brichacek and Salvador de Alba. 

Reece Gold was fifth in the championship last year and he is back with Juncos Hollinger Racing. Enaam Ahmed is back as Gold's teammate. Exclusive Autosport will run three cars for Louis Foster, Christian Brooks and Matthew Round-Garrido. Brooks was sixth in U.S. F2000 last year with Exclusive. 

Yuven Sundaramoorthy and Josh Green each won races in U.S. F2000 and they move up to Pabst Racing and Turn 3 Motorsport respectively. Jordan Missig and Colin Kaminsky will be Sundaramoorthy's teammates while Jonathan Browne will drive with Green at Turn 3. 

Rounding out the entry list is Jack William Miller with Miller Vinatieri Motorsport.

The first Indy Pro 2000 race all be at 11:40 a.m. ET on Friday February 25 with the second race at 8:00 a.m. ET on Saturday February 26.

Nineteen cars are entered for the U.S. F2000 season opening round. 

DEForce Racing will look to defend its championship with Thomas Nepveu, who won at Road America last year, Dylan Christie and Bijoy Garg. Cape Motorsports has not won the championship the last two years after nearly a decade of dominance. Cape will field four American drivers, including last year's championship runner-up Michael d'Orlando, Jackson Lee, Jagger Jones, grandson of Parnelli Jones, and Nicky Hays. 

Jay Howard Driver Development will field Frederik Lund, Yeoroo Lee and Jorge Garciarce. Exclusive Autosport has entered a pair of New Zealanders, Jacob Douglas and Billy Frazer, who is back for his second season. Trey Burke returns for his second season for Joe Dooling Autosports.

Jace Denmark and Myles Rowe will drive for Pabst Racing. Turn 3 Motorsport will run two cars for Chrisian Weir and Spike Kohlbecker. Simon Sikes will drive for Legacy Autosport. Viktor Andersson is entered with Velocity Racing Development. 

U.S. F2000 will race at 12:40 p.m. ET on Friday February 25 and at 10:45 a.m. ET on Sunday February 27.

Fast Facts
This will be the seventh IndyCar race to take place on February 27 and the first since Ralph DePalma won at the 1.25-mile Los Angeles Motor Speedway board oval in 1921. 

This will be the first IndyCar race to take place in February since February 29, 2004 when Sam Hornish, Jr. won at Homestead. It was Hornish's Team Penske debut. 

The season opener winner has gone on to win the championship in the last three seasons. However, since 1946, the winner of the season opener has never won the championship in four consecutive seasons. 

Since reunification, 13 of 14 champions have finished in the top ten of the first race of the season. Eight of those 13 drivers were on the podium in the opening race and ten of 13 finished in the top five.

Chip Ganassi Racing has won the season opener the last two years. Ganassi has won the season opener nine times, including three consecutive years from 2006 to 2008.

Ganassi has only one St. Petersburg victory, 2010 with Dario Franchitti.

Of the ten teams on the grid, only Arrow McLaren SP, Ed Carpenter Racing and Juncos Hollinger Racing have never won an IndyCar season opener. 

This will be the first IndyCar race Ryan Hunter-Reay has missed since Nashville on July 15, 2007. Hunter-Reay had started 239 consecutive races, the fourth longest streak in IndyCar history.

Last year's St. Petersburg race was the fastest in event history with an average speed of 96.552 mph. 

The average starting position for a St. Petersburg winner is 5.555 with a median of fourth.

Last year, Colton Herta became the third driver to win from pole position at St. Petersburg joining Hélio Castroneves in 2007 and Will Power in 2010. 

Herta could become the fourth consecutive driver to win consecutive St. Petersburg races joining Juan Pablo Montoya in 2015-16, Sébastien Bourdais 2017-18 and Josef Newgarden 2019-20.

Five times has the St. Petersburg started outside the top five, including in three of the last five St. Petersburg races. 

The average number of lead changes in a St. Petersburg race is 6.3889 with a median of seven. 

Every St. Petersburg has had at least two lead changes. Seven of the last ten St. Petersburg races have had more than five lead changes.

The average number of cautions at St. Petersburg is 4.27778 with a median of five. The average number of caution laps is 18.667 with a median of 18. 

Every St. Petersburg race has had at least two cautions.

Predictions
Alexander Rossi ends his winless drought immediately, and Rossi leads three Andretti Autosport cars in the top ten. Our defending champion Álex Palou is eighth and not the top Ganassi finisher. At least one rookie makes it to the second round of qualifying, but none finish in the top ten. Simon Pagenaud is ahead of Jack Harvey. Ed Carpenter Racing will have at least one car finish in the top fifteen. There will be at least three cautions for incidents in three different corners. Jimmie Johnson will not spin, nor stall on course. At least five drivers will lead a lap. Sleeper: Felix Rosenqvist.


Wednesday, February 23, 2022

2022 Road to Indy Preview

The IndyCar season is about to begin, and with IndyCar comes the return for the three Road to Indy series. The ladder series begin their seasons with dozens of young drivers hoping this will be the year to springboard their careers. Some drivers are on the cusp of IndyCar. Others are just getting started. Some drivers are looking at what could be their final chance to make it to the top. Others are teenagers, starting a three or four-year plan. 

Regardless of where each driver is in their career, we are going to preview every driver entered this weekend for the Road to Indy season openers from St. Petersburg. We will look at what these drivers did last year and what their expectations are for the 2022 season. 

Indy Lights
With Indy Lights returning under IndyCar operations after Andersen Promotions promoted the series since 2014, the 2022 schedule will see a significant change with only 14 races and only three doubleheader weekends.

The season starts with a single race at St. Petersburg on February 27 before having two months off and racing again on May 1 at Barber Motorsports Park. The first doubleheader weekend will be on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course on May 13-14 with the second doubleheader being the following round at Belle Isle on June 4-5. Road America marks the halfway point on June 12. 

Mid-Ohio hosts round eight on July 3. Indy Lights returns to Iowa for the first time since 2018 on July 23. The series will make its inaugural appearance on the streets of Nashville on August 7. The second of two oval races will be at Gateway on August 20. Portland hosts the penultimate round on September 4 before the season concludes with a doubleheader on September 10-11 at Laguna Seca.

Teams: 
Andretti Autosport
Sting Ray Robb: #2 Sekady Capital Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Eighth in the Indy Lights championship with only one top five finish in 20 races.

What to expect in 2022: Robb was a non-factor for most of the 2021 season, but his testing pace had him closer to the top. He topped the Laguna Seca test earlier this month. Robb developed in each season he ran in Indy Pro 2000. Results should be better this year. He is with the best team on the grid. A race victory isn't out of the question, but I am not certain he can string together the results for a championship.

Hunter McElrea: #27 Giltrap Group/Objective Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Third in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with three victories and seven podium finishes in 18 races.

What to expect in 2022: McElrea was not far off his Andretti teammate Robb at the Laguna Seca test, and he has been close to the top at every test this offseason. The American-born New Zealander has always been good in his Road to Indy career, but he has yet to be the standout driver in a series. I think that will continue with top five finishes and perhaps a win or two, but another driver or two will end up better.

Christian Rasmussen: #28 Andretti Autosport Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Indy Pro 2000 champion with seven victories and 12 podium finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Rasmussen has been phenomenal in the Road to Indy. Third in U.S. F2000 in 2019, U.S. F2000 champion in 2020 with nine victories and he won the Indy Pro 2000 title last year with seven victories. It is easy to chalk the Dane down as champion apparent for this year in Indy Lights, but it doesn't normally work that way. He was regularly in the top five during testing, but normally not even the fastest in the Andretti team. He will have a good year, but he will need to be better than ever to win the championship. This season could be a wake-up call.

Matthew Brabham: #83 Andretti Autosport Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Stadium Super Trucks champion with two victories and ten podium finishes in ten races.

What to expect in 2022: After nearly seven years since his last Indy Lights start, Brabham is back as he takes one final crack at making it to IndyCar. If Brabham was making this move four years ago, I probably would have chalked him as a championship threat. However, after all this time away, and seeing the testing results, I think Brabham will be playing catchup the first half of the season. 

He had good days in testing, but also had days where he was toward the bottom of the speed chart. Results should be better at the end of the year than at the start. He could be knocking on the door for victories. 

HMD Motorsports
Christian Bogle: #7 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara
What did he do in 2021: 11th in Indy Lights with his best finish being seventh and eight finishes outside the top ten in 20 races.

What to expect in 2022: Bogle wasn't ready for Indy Lights last year after moving up directly from U.S. F2000 and he isn't any more prepared this year. His results should be close to identical to the year before.

Linus Lundqvist: #26 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Third in Indy Lights with three victories and 11 podium finishes. 

What to expect in 2022: Considering Lundqvist is the top returning driver from last season, he is one of the championship favorites. Kyle Kirkwood and David Malukas might have been the clear number one and number two drivers last year, but Lundqvist was closer to those two than the rest of the field was to him. 

However, the new drivers joining this series will make it anything but a given that Lundqvist will run away with this title. He should win, but he will need to be more dominant to take the championship. 

Danial Frost: #79 Den-Jet Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Fifth in Indy Lights with four podium finishes and seven top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Frost has been a good but not great driver in the Road to Indy. He can finish in the top five, but he isn't a regular challenger for victories. That will not change this year. Considering the talent entering Indy Lights, Frost is likely to drop out of the top five in the championship.  

Global Racing Group with HMD Motorsports
Benjamin Pedersen: #24 Global Racing Group Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Fourth in Indy Lights with six podium finishes and nine top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Pedersen showed in testing he is ready to take the next step in Indy Lights. He led the Chris Griffis Memorial Test in October at the IMS road course and then led tests at Sebring and Homestead last month. Pedersen didn't win a race and really never came close in 2021, but that should change this year. 

He should have a few days where he is the one on top. Can he do that for an entire season? He ended strong last year. If he repeats that for the entire 2022 campaign, with a few victories mixed in, he will be in the championship conversation.

Manuel Sulaimán: #59 Global Racing Group Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Ninth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with a victory and three podium finishes. Sulaimán skipped the final five races of the Indy Pro 2000 season to run the final six races in Indy Lights, where his best finish was sixth.

What to expect in 2022: Sulaimán will be competing for the occasional top five finish, but mostly be in the back half of the top ten. 

Force Indy
Ernie Francis, Jr.: #99 Force Indy Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Third in the Formula Regional Americas Championship with three victories and four podium finishes. Third in the Trans-Am Series TA class with one victory and four podium finishes. Second in the Superstar Racing Experience with a victory at Indianapolis Raceway Park.

What to expect in 2022: Francis, Jr. makes a big jump into Indy Lights after an impressive 2021 season in multiple series. This is a big push for IndyCar's diversity initiative. This will be a greater challenge for him and the team. I am not sure Francis, Jr. will be fighting for victories, but considering the gains he made in Formula Regional Americas last year, his first real season in a single-seater car, I would not be surprised if he starts slow but is in the top five and pushing for podium results toward the end of the season. This should be a two-year, if not three-year program.

TJ Speed Motorsports
James Roe, Jr.: #12 Topcon Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Seventh in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with a victory in the finale at Mid-Ohio, three total top five finishes and ten top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Roe, Jr. was respectable in Indy Pro 2000 last year. This is a tougher series than Indy Pro 2000 was last year. If Roe can pull out a few top five finishes, that would make this year a success. His main goal should be to develop and look toward a second Indy Lights season in 2023.

Kyffin Simpson: #21 TJ Speed Motorsports Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Eighth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with three podium finishes, four top five finishes and 11 top ten finishes in 16 starts. Formula Regional Americas champion with seven victories, 13 podium finishes and 16 top five finishes in 18 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Simpson was a little all over the place last year. He wasn't the best driver in Indy Pro 2000, but he had a few promising days. He was second in the Indy Lights Chris Griffis Memorial Test at the IMS road course in October but dropped back in testing last month at Sebring and Homestead.

I don't get a clear sense where he falls. He has been stellar in some series and only good in some others. I think we will see similar results to what he did in Indy Pro 2000. There will be a few races he is on the podium and pushing for the top spot and then others when he is eighth or ninth. He will be in the back half of the top ten of the championship. 

Abel Motorsports
Antonio Serravalle: #11 Abel Motorsports Dallara
What did he do in 2021: 12th in Indy Lights with five top ten finishes in 16 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Serravalle is only signed up for the St. Petersburg season opener. Even if he runs more races or a full season, I do not expect much change from what we saw in 2021.

Jacob Abel: #51 Abel Speedwagon Dallara
What did he do in 2021: Sixth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with two podium finishes, seven top five finishes and 16 top ten finishes. Competed in one Formula Regional Americas round at Mid-Ohio and won a race while finishing second in another. Six starts in the GT World Challenge America Pro-Am class with one victory and a second-place finish.

What to expect in 2022: Last year, Abel completed his first full season in a Road to Indy series after a smattering of U.S. F2000 starts between 2017 and 2018 and part-time Indy Pro 2000 season in 2019 and 2020, though he ran most of the races in 2019. He did well last year, but never showed he was a force. There could be a few good days, but I do not see him controlling this championship.

Indy Pro 2000
Eighteen races comprise the 2022 Indy Pro 2000 season. 

The season starts with a pair of doubleheaders, first at St. Petersburg on February 26-27 and then at Barber on April 30 and May 1. The IMS road course hosts a triple-header between May 13-14. The first oval race is at Indianapolis Raceway Park on May 27.

Road America marks the halfway point with a doubleheader on June 11-12 before two races at Mid-Ohio on July 2-3 and a return to Toronto for a doubleheader on July 16-17. The final oval race will be Gateway on August 20. Portland will close the season with a triple-header from September 2-4.

Teams: 
DEForce Racing
Kiko Porto: #1 Banco Daycoval/Petromega Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: U.S. F2000 champion with four victories, ten podium finishes and 15 top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Porto was a quick driver in his first two U.S. F2000 seasons. Prior to that, he was runner-up in the Formula 4 United States Championship in 2019. He will be competitive and could be fighting for race victories. He was 11th at the Homestead preseason test, but I don't think that is a true indication of where he will be in 2022. He will challenge for a top five championship spot.

Nolan Siegel: #8 Towne Ford/Race for RP Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Eighth in the U.S. F2000 championship with one victory, four podium finishes and six top five finishes. Started the Indy Pro 2000 race at Gateway and finished fifth.

What to expect in 2022: Siegel had a few good days in U.S. F2000 but never found the consistency to be a regular challenger at the front. He was sixth at the Homestead. That Gateway result shows he is capable for this level. He can be challenging for top five finishes and get on the podium a few times. I am not convinced he will come right in and be a title contender.

Jay Howard Driver Development
Braden Eves: #4 CCFI/Huston Insurance/Addison Holdings LLC/Coastal Local Seafood Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Second in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with three victories, nine podium finishes and 15 top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Eves should be battling for the championship. He traded blows with Christian Rasmussen last year only for Rasmussen to be more dominant. Eves should win more than last year and if he does that he has a better shot at the title. Anything lower than second in the championship would be a disappointment. 

Wyatt Brichacek: #5 JHDD/CSU | One Care/Lucas Oil Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Tenth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with his best finish being sixth in three races.

What to expect in 2022: Surprisingly, Brichacek led the Homestead test. For a driver that has never finished on the podium between 37 Road to Indy starts and 34 Formula 4 United States championship starts, I am not sure one test is enough to say he is now the favorite. I need more than a test to say he will be a champion, but I think he can finally get a top five finish and could end up on the podium a few times. We cannot entirely rule out a victory or two, but let's not pencil those down just yet.

Salvador de Alba: #6 Grupe Indi/Mecano/Sidral Aga Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: NASCAR Mexico Series champion with four victories, ten top five finishes and 11 top ten finishes in 12 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Alba is transitioning from stock car racing, and he was respectable in testing, ending up ninth. He will have a few good days and a few bad days. I don't expect him to be challenging his teammates regularly. A solid top ten championship finish will be a good year.

Juncos Hollinger Racing
Enaam Ahmed: #47 Clear Capital Markets Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 12th in the Indy Pro 2000 championship after starting only nine of 18 races. One podium finishes and four top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: If Ahmed contests the full season, I could see him competing for race victories and have an outside chance at the championship, but he needs to be in Indy Pro 2000 for the entire year.

Reece Gold: #55 The Ticket Clinic Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Fifth in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with one victory, seven podium finishes and 12 top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Gold showed good results last year, but he couldn't quite get over the top and be one of the top drivers in the series. He was fifth in testing, and he should win a few more times than he did last year. He is going to push for the championship. 

Pabst Racing
Yuven Sundaramoorthy: #18 S Team Motorsports Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Third in the U.S. F2000 championship with four victories, nine podium finishes and 14 top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: After a breakout year in his third U.S. F2000 season, I expect Sundaramoorthy to reset and have to build up again in Indy Pro 2000. He was 15th in testing. If he can get into the top five in some races those would be good results.

Jordan Missig: #19 AMW Ventures/Motorsports 4 Mental Health Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Fifth in Formula Regional Americas Championship with a victory, six podium finishes and nine top five finishes in 17 starts. 

What to expect in 2022: Missig was respectable in Formula Regional Americas, but success in one series does not guarantee success in another. Missig was slowest at the Homestead test. I think he will be running around his teammate Sundaramoorthy and that could be outside the top ten.

Colin Kaminsky: #27 Slick Lock Machine Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 13th in the Indy Pro 2000 championship after making only seven starts with his best finish being fifth and six total top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: We know Kaminsky is a good driver after finishing eighth in this championship in 2020. He was 13th in testing, which raises an eyebrow. If he is full-time, he can finish in the top ten in the championship, but I do think he can break the top five.

Exclusive Autosport
Louis Foster: #90 Copart/Novara Technologies Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Second in the Euroformula Open Championship with three victories, 13 podium finishes and 17 top five finishes in 24 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Foster has a chance for the championship. He was third in testing. He is coming over from a respected European championship. The one concern is all these tracks will be new and his main rivals have been in the Road to Indy for multiple years. He should win a few races and if he doesn't experience a difficult learning curve he will be in the championship conversation.

Christian Brooks: #91 Hot Wheels/Chaco Flaco/Bell Racing Helmets/ MB2 Raceway/Molecule/APSS/Lucky Design USA Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Sixth in the U.S. F2000 championship with two victories, four podium finishes and nine top five finishes in 16 starts. Ran the final round of the Indy Pro 2000 season and finished fifth in both races at Mid-Ohio.

What to expect in 2022: Last year started smashingly for Brooks, but he fell off as the season went along. The Indy Pro 2000 finale round gives me confidence that Brooks didn't lose anything. He was fourth in testing. Foster is a tough teammate to be paired with, but one that will bring the best out of Brooks. If Brooks beats Foster than he likely had a great season.

Matthew Round-Garrido: #92 Indigo Medical/Excel Labs Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 16th in the U.S. F2000 championship with one podium finishes and four top five finishes in 13 starts.

What to expect in 2022: This will be Round-Garrido's fourth year in the Road to Indy system. He has two podium finishes in 41 starts. He was tenth in testing. Somewhere between seventh and tenth in the championship. 

Turn 3 Motorsport
Jonathan Browne: #2 Human Centered Movement/CRPS Awareness Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Nine starts in the GB3 Championship where he finished third on debut.

What to expect in 2022: Browne is a relative unknown. I think he will struggle and be a frequent finisher outside the top ten.

Josh Green: #3 Session Guardian/Zimperium/Lionfish Consulting/Coach Mark Green/JHG Investment Fund Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Fifth in the U.S. F2000 championship with a victory, two podium finishes and eight top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Green was consistent in U.S. F2000. His testing pace was encouraging at Homestead, finishing eighth. This is a greater challenge than a year before. A few top five finishes with an occasional trip to the podium would be a good year for him.

Miller Vinatieri Motorsports
Jack William Miller: #40 Indy Dental Group, LLC/Patterson Dental Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 11th in the Indy Pro 2000 championship with one top five finish and ten top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: About the same as 2021, but he did improve notable from year one to year two in U.S. F2000. I feel like this Indy Pro 2000 grid will not allow Miller to make the same kind of improvement though.

U.S. F2000
U.S. F2000 runs a near identical calendar to Indy Pro 2000 with 18 races, but there are a few differences. 

The first five rounds are identical, doubleheader at St. Petersburg, doubleheader at Barber, tripleheader on the IMS road course, Indianapolis Raceway Park and then a doubleheader at Road America. 

The main difference is U.S. F2000 will run a triple-header at Mid-Ohio on July 2-3 before a doubleheader at Toronto and concluding the season with a triple-header in Portland.

Teams:
DEForce Racing
Thomas Nepveu: #10 Cromwell/Pétrole Bélanger/Home Hardware/Espace Papier Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Ninth in U.S. F2000 with a victory, three top five finishes and ten top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: This could be a breakout year for Nepveu. He did well last year in U.S. F2000 considering his limited experience in car racing. There is plenty of ground to gain and I think he can do it. He has an outside shot at the championship, and he could win multiple times this year. Nepveu was third in testing.

Dylan Christie: #11 Stilo Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 15th in U.S. F2000 with four top ten finishes. 

What to expect in 2022: After ending up 16th in testing, I do not foresee a major gain this year.

Bijoy Garg: #12 DEForce Racing Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 27th in U.S. F2000 with one top ten finishes. Ineligible for points in the final five races due to exceeding maximum allotted test days. Eighth in the Formula 4 United States Championship with one podium finish and three top five finishes in 11 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Considering he had only one top ten finish, Garg should do significantly better this year. He was ninth in testing, but I do not see him fighting with Nepveu. A few top five finishes would be a good year for him, but that is setting the bar high.

Cape Motorsports
Jackson Lee: #2 IU Simon Cancer Center/Browning Chapman/Race for RP/SPRUCE Cold Brew Coffee/Caldwell Subways/Caldwell Realty Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 18th in U.S. F2000 with one top ten finish in 14 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Lee had a few bright moments last year. Things should improve in year two, but he was 15th in testing. It will be tough to break the top ten in the championship. 

Jagger Jones: #3 Cape Motorsports Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Jones has not competed since finishing second in the 2019 NASCAR West Series championship where he had a victory and eight top five finishes in 13 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Jones led the Chris Griffis Memorial Test last autumn and he was second in the Homestead preseason test. This is a significant shift from stock cars, especially after an extended period off. So far, the results are promising. It feels like he is bound to win a few races, but can he put a complete year together? He should be in the top five of the championship. If everything goes right and mistakes are minimized, a championship is not out of the question. 

Michael d'Orlando: #4 Focused Project Management/UFC Gym - Mamaroneck/Design Build Collaborative/Dino Luzzi Energy Drink Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Second in U.S. F2000 with three victories, eight podium finishes and 14 top five finishes.

What to expect in 2022: D'Orlando is the championship favorite. Kiko Porto had a stronger end to the 2021 season, but d'Orlando was not far off. He ended the season with four consecutive pole positions, but he couldn't translate those into race victories. I expect an improvement on that. He was fastest at the Homestead test. The championship goes through him.

Nicky Hays: #5 Touchstone Helicopters/Molecule Sports/Sparco USA Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Honda Performance Development NSX GT3 Academy driver. Hays was fourth in the 2020 Formula Regional Americas Championship with two podium finishes and seven top five finishes in 17 starts. Third in the 2019 French F4 championship with a victory and seven podium finishes in 19 starts.

What to expect in 2022: Hays was 12th in the test. While not completely out of racing, he wasn't in a major series last year. He will be fighting just to break into the top ten of the championship.

Jay Howard Driver Development
Frederik Lund: #6 CSU | One Cure/Lucas Oil/LHP Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Five starts in the F4 Danish Championship with two retirements, but finishes of eighth, second and sixth in the other three. 

What to expect in 2022: Lund is new to car racing. Those Formula 4 Danish Championship starts were his first in a car after transitioning from karting. Expectations are low. He should take another year to two to develop.

Yeoroo Lee: #7 Pagliuso Academy/Turtle Plastics/Lakes Coffee Roasters/Sonesta Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Sixth in the Lucas Oil Formula Car Race Series.

What to expect in 2022: For a driver that is relatively new to car racing, but was fourth in the Homestead test, I expect results all over the place. A few races he will look great and be on the podium. Other tracks will be harder for him, and he will be fighting just to stay in the top ten. He is only 15 years old. Unless he wins the championship or wins many races, this should be year one of at least two at this level. 

Jorge Garcíarce: #9 Sidral Aga/Red Cola/Skarch Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 34th in the Italian F4 championship with his best finish being a tenth at Imola. Also contested two ADAC Formula 4 Championship rounds and the Spanish F4 Championship round at Spa-Francorchamps.

What to expect in 2022: After being 11th in the test, fringe top ten driver.

Pabst Racing
Myles Rowe: #22 Penske Entertainment Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 13th in U.S. F2000 with a victory, two top five finishes and six top ten finishes. 

What to expect in 2022: Rowe showed potential in 2021, but also was caught in many accidents. If he can limit the damage, he should make a jump up the championship. He was 14th in the test. This is a program he has crowd sourced for funding. There is a lot of pressure on him. I think he can be in the top ten of the championship.

Jace Denmark: #23 Metal Works Custom Fabrication Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 11th in the U.S. F2000 championship with a podium finish, two top five finishes and 11 top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Denmark had a good year one and he should improve, but I am not sure he will be contending for race victories regularly. I expect more top five finishes than the year before.

Exclusive Autosport
Jacob Douglas: #9 JDM Properties/Estim8/TC Performance/Kartstore.nz/DP Homes Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: New Zealander Junior Rotex champion. Second in the New Zealand Formula Ford Class 2.

What to expect in 2022: Douglas is completely new, but he was fifth in testing. Like Yeoroo Lee, I think there will be some races where Douglas is on it and others where he is fighting to make time. 

Billy Frazer: #92 Cambridge Global Services/Giltrap Group Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 12th in U.S. F2000 with two top five finishes and eight top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Frazer was just behind his teammate and fellow countryman in testing. Frazer will be fighting for more top five finishes and be on the podium a few times. There could be a race or two where he is sniffing a victory.

Turn 3 Motorsport
Christian Weir: #32 EComfort.com/Ferguson/ProFlow Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Ran the final eight races of the U.S. F2000 season and scored three top ten finishes. Two podium finishes in five Formula 4 United States Championship starts.

What to expect in 2022: Last year was a good audition for Weir. He is only 15 years old. He should be a regular top ten finishes and could get into the top five a few times. He should be developing for another year in this series.  

Spike Kohlbecker: #33 tierpoint/KhS/Rsolution/True Title Company/Fort Family Foundation Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: Seventh in U.S. F2000 with one podium finish and 13 top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: After ending up tenth in testing, I think Kohlbecker will be around where he was last year. I am not anticipating a giant leap forward.

Legacy Autosport
Simon Sikes: #19 America's Pharmacy Source/ERA/Medi-Share/Metalloid/Group6 Gear Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 14th in U.S. F2000 with four podium finishes in ten starts. Three victories in three F1600 Championship Series starts. SCCA National Champion in Formula Continental and runner-up in the Formula F SCCA National Championship.

What to expect in 2022: Sikes has been hanging around the Road to Indy for the last two years, but he has yet to complete a full season in U.S. F2000. Considering his SCCA success, if he got a full season, I think he could contend for the championship. But he has yet to get that break and he is 21 years old. It feels like now or never for him.

Joe Dooling Autosports
Trey Burke: #63 Dooling Machine Products Texas/Texas Micro Optics Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 23rd in U.S. F2000 with his best finish being 13th.

What to expect in 2022: Burke was new to single-seater racing last year and had growing pains. I expect more growing to occur in 2022.

Velocity Racing Development
Viktor Andersson: #30 Velocity Racing Development Tatuus
What did he do in 2021: 20th in the Formula 4 United States Championship with five top ten finishes.

What to expect in 2022: Andersson was 13th in testing. I do not envision a championship challenge and I think he will be fighting just to be in the top ten.

Indy Pro 2000 will be the first series on track with race one on Friday February 25 at 11:40 p.m. ET. U.S. F2000 will follow at at 12:40 p.m. The second Indy Pro 2000 race is scheduled for Saturday February 26 at 8:00 a.m. On Sunday February 27, Indy Lights will run its only race at 9:30 a.m. before the second U.S. F2000 race at 10:45 a.m.



Monday, February 21, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Good... But Not Great

Austin Cindric won the Daytona 500, his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory in his eighth career start. Inconsistent double yellow line rules and last lap cautions are back in NASCAR. Brad Keselowski was taking everyone out at Daytona. Andretti Autosport's pursuit of a Formula One team continues, and I have a feeling this will end poorly. Supercross had a stunning finish in Minneapolis. Everyone is talking about reindeer ahead of Rally Sweden. The Asian Le Mans Series season is over. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Good... But Not Great
Unusual for February, there is an IndyCar race ahead of us. After nearly two decades of opening predominantly in March or April, IndyCar starts in the shortest month of the year. It is another season with 17 races. A few drivers have switched teams. A few new teams are set for full-time competition. 

IndyCar is coming off a season with a new champion, four drivers in their 20s winning races and incredible races from Indianapolis to Road America, Nashville to Gateway, Barber to Long Beach. 

This season should pick up where 2021 left off. Scott Dixon is on the cusp of making history. Josef Newgarden is the American driver Robin Miller always wanted, and then there is Alexander Rossi. Colton Herta and Patricio O'Ward are on the verge of taking over the world. Álex Palou is the defending champion and is somehow still unappreciated.

All the pieces are there for another stellar season with the championship going to the final race with the battle swinging back and forth from the initial green flag in St. Petersburg to the final unfurling of the checkered flag at Laguna Seca. 

And yet, as we are within days of the first race of the season, I feel good about IndyCar... but not great. 

IndyCar has had a great decade in the DW12-era. It has had more passing and more open races than ever before. The series' streak of the championship going to the final race remains alive, dating back to the 2006 season. The Indianapolis 500 has re-emerged as a premier event, and it has had some of its best races in the last ten years. Those things are going to stay the same in 2022. We will have great races, winners from many different teams and possibly an unexpected champion. 

The problem is greater than the season we are about to have. 

This is set to be the final season of the 2.2 liters, twin-turbo V6 engines before the 2.4 L, twin-turbo V6 hybrid engines are introduced in 2023. The new Dallara chassis will come a year later. The next phase for IndyCar should provide excitement, but IndyCar finds itself in a familiar place. 

With new engine regulations on the horizon, no new engine manufactures are joining the series. Chevrolet and Honda are sticking around, but after waiting for IndyCar to return to three manufactures for the first time since Lotus flamed out after the 2012 season, none are joining the party. IndyCar is in a better place than it was a decade ago, and yet no one is jumping into the pool. 

What will it take for IndyCar to attract a new manufacture if the last ten years isn't enough? 

The frustrating thing is IndyCar had its chance. Porsche was interested back in early 2019, but IndyCar wasn't set on committing to hybrid technology. The series wanted to make sure it kept Chevrolet and Honda involved before making any decisions. Porsche waited long enough and withdrew its IndyCar interest in April. It wasn't until August 2019 when IndyCar decided to adopt hybrid technology. 

The pandemic delayed the introduction of the new regulations. Instead of coming in 2021, it will come in 2023. In the last two years, people got distracted with a game of footsie Ferrari played under the table with IndyCar, but hardened souls knew it would lead to nothing. Toyota is the latest flirt with the series, but Toyota has been clear from the outset that nothing is going to happen between the two parties. 

Three of the most notable manufactures in the world have turned IndyCar down in a three-year period, and no others are showing any interest. 

As good as things have been, there comes a breaking point. Honda is approaching three decades in IndyCar. That will not last forever. History tells us it will not. The same way Offenhauser and Cosworth are no longer powering cars, Honda will eventually no longer be on the IndyCar grid. Chevrolet has come and gone multiple times. It has been around for the last decade, but if it can leave twice before it can leave a third time. 

For all the strides IndyCar has made, all the heart-pounding races, engaging personalities, and increased viewership it can tout, the series has not become any more stable in the last ten years than it was in 2012. 

Roger Penske might have purchased the series, but Penske cannot field 24 cars full-time and 33 each Memorial Day weekend on his own. He needs manufactures willing to participate. Two has been enough for now, but three or four or even five would put the series in safer territory.

My fear is this great time everyone has been having since about 2016 is about to peak and a decline will occur simultaneously with the introduction of these new regulations. Eventually, what we think is working will clearly not be producing adequate results IndyCar cannot keep thinking that third or fourth manufacture is just outside the door about to walk in with what it is selling in the window. There comes a point where the series has to make a change and I think that point is approaching.

IMSA and the FIA World Endurance Championship both are undergoing regulation changes, and both are seeing an increase in manufactures. In WEC, Peugeot is coming back in 2022 alongside Toyota. Ferrari returns next year. In IMSA, Cadillac and Acura are sticking around and coming in 2023 are Audi, BMW and Porsche with Alpine building to the LMDh specs for 2024. 

In what is essentially one class, the highest form of sports car racing will have nine manufactures in 2024, and more could be coming. At the start of 2020, LMP1 only had Toyota as a manufacture with the privateer Rebellion Racing program and the stillbirth ByKolles and Ginetta programs in the background. 

Sports car racing has something figured out. IndyCar was first to the table with regulations and missed badly. IndyCar didn't need to get nine manufactures, but sports car racing showed there was a formula to attract manufactures. 

IndyCar needs to make an adjustment. After running strict regulations, a specific engine displacement and specific number of cylinders, maybe it is time for IndyCar to open the allowances. It doesn't have to go crazy but allowing up to three liters and allowing four cylinders or an inline engine or a flat-6 is more likely going to attract makes to the IndyCar grid than the current plan.

But maybe this is the year. Maybe 2022 is what will put one or two or perhaps three other manufactures over the top and IndyCar will be set. After all, if you fail ten times, the 11th time is the charm. 

Until something changes, I am feeling good about IndyCar... but not great.

Champions From the Weekend

The #4 Nielsen Racing Oreca-Gibson of Matt Bell, Ben Hanley and Rodrigo Sales clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a pair of runner-up finishes in the two Abu Dhabi races.

The #27 CD Sport Ligier-Nissan of Christophe Cresp, Antoine Doquin and Steven Palette clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP3 championship with a third-place finish and runner-up finish. 

The #7 Inception Racing with Optimum Motorsport McLaren of Ben Barnicoat, Brendan Iribe and Ollie Millroy clinched the Asian Le Mans Series GT championship with finishes of second and sixth. 

The #57 Kessel Racing Ferrari of Axcil Jefferies, Roman Ziemian and Francesco Zollo swept the Abu Dhabi weekend in GT Am and won all four GT Am rounds in the 2022 Asian Le Mans Series season.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about the Austin Cindric and Kessel Racing, but did you know...

Austin Hill won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Daytona, his first career victory in the series. Zane Smith won the Truck race. 

The #23 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson of Josh Pierson and Paul di Resta swept the Asian Le Mans Series races from Abu Dhabi. In the first race, the #2 DKR Engineering Duqueine-Nissan of Sebastián Álvarez Acre, Mathieu de Barbuat and Laurents Hörr won in LMP3. In GT, the #91 Herberth Motorsport Porsche of Ralf Bohn, Alfred Renauer and Robert Renauer swept the races. 

Jason Anderson won the Supercross race from Minneapolis, his second consecutive victory and his third of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar opens in St. Petersburg.
The reindeer-shortened Rally Sweden.
NASCAR returns to Fontana for the first time in two years.
Supercross heads to Arlington for a Triple Crown round.


Friday, February 18, 2022

Possible 2022 IndyCar Milestones

In a week, IndyCar will be back on track for the first practice sessions of the season. We have previewed all ten teams and the drivers set to participate in the 2022 season, but those were big picture previews, setting full season expectations. 

However, we sometimes miss the history happening in front of us. A season moves at a rapid pace. It is difficult to keep track of the statistics and where a driver stands in the record book. We focus on victories, the championship points and entire season storylines. When a season ends, we get a chance to reflect, look at the numbers and only then do we realize what we missed. 

Instead of falling behind, let's prepare for history. There are plenty of milestones awaiting in 2022. Some will be reached. Others are possibilities but might not occur. You would rather be safe than sorry. 

There are a few drivers who can make more history than others, but there is plenty of milestones that could be met for a few different drivers this season. 

Scott Dixon - Second all-time in victories
Where is he at: 51 victories, currently third all-time.

What does he need to do: Two victories would move Dixon into second all-time, surpassing Mario Andretti's 52 victories and putting Dixon only behind A.J. Foyt's 67. 

We have been waiting for Dixon to reach second all-time ever since he hit 50 victories at Gateway in 2020. It felt like he was going to get second all-time in 2021, especially after winning the third race of the season at Texas. However, that was his only victory. Now he needs one to tie Andretti and two to surpass him. 

The good news for us, and the good news for Dixon, is he has won a race in 17 consecutive seasons and in 14 of those seasons he won at least twice. I think we will see this happen at some point in 2022. 

(By the way, this isn't the last time you are going to see Dixon. No surprise that Dixon could make a lot of history this season).

Hélio Castroneves - Five-time Indianapolis 500 winner
Where is he at: Four-time Indianapolis 500 winners, one of four drivers with four Indianapolis 500 victories.

What does he need to do: Simple, win the Indianapolis 500. 

This is the first time since 1993 a driver will be attempting to win a fifth Indianapolis 500. The last driver to take a shot was Al Unser driving the #80 Budweiser Lola-Chevrolet for King Racing. Twenty-nine years later, Castroneves will now get a chance to move himself ahead of A.J Foyt, Rick Mears and Unser. 

Back in 2009, right after Castroneves won his third, it felt like a fourth Indianapolis 500 victory would be an incredible achievement, and a fifth felt realistic for Castroneves considering he was winning one out of every three Indianapolis 500 starts. Maybe it has been time, nearly 13 years since that third "500" victory for Castroneves, or the pandemic, but for as great as it was to see Castroneves win his fourth Indianapolis 500, it didn't resonate as much as I would have thought it would have. I cannot imagine a fifth being all that different. It would be cool to see, but a minor deal in the sporting world. 

Dixon - Most different tracks with a victory
Where is he at: 25 different tracks with a victory.

What does he need to do: Win at two different tracks, and any combination of St. Petersburg, Barber, the IMS road course, Nashville, Portland and/or Laguna Seca will do. 

Mario Andretti holds this record with 26 different circuits, but Dixon is there. Dixon has been one of the best at Barber, but he hasn't been able to pull out a victory. He can win anywhere, and no one would be surprised if he got this record. 

Castroneves - 100 Podium Finishes
Where is he at: 94 podium finishes.

What does he need to do: Obviously, six more podium finishes, but what 100 podium finishes mean is he would become just the fifth driver to reach 100 podium finishes.

Mario Andretti is the all-time leader with 144. Dixon is second on 127 podium finishes and counting. A.J. Foyt is on 119 and Michael Andretti retired on an even 100. 

How likely is it that Castroneves reaches this mark in 2022? Unlikely, but not impossible. Castroneves had had five seasons with at least six podium finishes (seven in 2002, eight in 2003, six in 2006, 11 in 2008 and six in 2014). IndyCar is much tougher than it was in those five seasons and Castroneves has not been full-time since 2017. I think three podium finishes would be a great year for Castroneves. Six would be tremendous. 

Jimmie Johnson - Second-oldest Indianapolis 500 rookie
Where is he at: Zero Indianapolis 500 starts.

What does he need to do: Start the Indianapolis 500. 

If Johnson takes the green flag on the afternoon of May 29, 2022, he will be 46 years, eight months, and 12 days old. The only driver to make an Indianapolis 500 debut at an older age is Jean Alesi when the Frenchman made his one and only ill-fated "500" start in 2012 driving a Lotus-powered car at 47 years, 11 months, and 16 days old. 

I am not sure there is a better fact to illustrate what Johnson is doing in his career than this one. This is a second career for him. This isn't Kurt Busch attempting The Double and Indianapolis is forever a one-off thing he did at 35 years, nine months, and 21 days old. This isn't a disillusioned Fernando Alonso coming to Indianapolis because the McLaren F1 entry is dreadful at 35 years, nine months, and 29 days old. Johnson is nearly 11 years older than those famous Indianapolis 500 entries. He isn't in his prime. His skills aren't at his sharpest, and yet he is taking the shot. 

This isn't even the biggest history Johnson could make at Indianapolis. The two-time Daytona 500 winner could join Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt as the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 and Indianapolis 500. Now that is history!

Dixon - 20th season with a victory
Where is he at: 19 seasons with a victory.

What does he need to do: Win a race!

Dixon is already the all-time leader in seasons with a victory, but there is something about reaching that 20 seasons milestone that would put it over the top. Two complete decades with a victory. Neither Foyt nor Andretti did it and both were around for over 30 years. Al Unser won in only 14 of the 30 seasons he participated in. 

No one else is really close to 20 seasons. Hélio Castroneves had won in 16 seasons, but he is five years older than Dixon and it is uncertain he will be around long enough to reach this milestone let alone win a race in four more seasons. Will Power is on 15 seasons, which is close, but he would need to win a race for the next five years. We aren't sure Power is going to drive for the next five years let alone win races in that time. Dixon could achieve this and be the only driver to reach this mark for quite some time. 

Takuma Sato - 200th start
Where is he at: 198 starts.

What does he need to do: Start two races and it is likely he will reach this milestone at Texas. The start milestones are a sign of longevity. I am not sure many of us realize how long Sato has been around in IndyCar. He debuted in 2010 and was quietly around for an entire decade. That is forgetting he made 90 starts in Formula One, ranking him 89th all-time. If only he had been given the BAR-Honda seat in 2003, Super Aguri not folded in 2008 or Toro Rosso had hired him in 2009, Sato would be one of the few drivers with 100 starts in each Formula One and IndyCar. 

He will soon fall down the Formula One order. Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly and Charles Leclerc are all within ten starts of Sato and they are all still younger than Sato was when Sato made his grand prix debut.

Sato is set to become the 26th driver to reach the 200-start milestone. You can probably name most of the drivers who have made 200 starts, but there are probably plenty of drivers you would name and be wrong. 

Who didn't make it to 200 starts? Emerson Fittipaldi and Adrián Fernández each retired on 195 starts. If it wasn't for Fittipaldi's accident at Michigan in 1996 then he would have easily cleared 200. If Fernández hadn't bloomed so late and if the financial landscape had been better in the mid-2000s, perhaps Fernández would have stayed in IndyCar and not moved to sports cars.

Dick Simon only made 182 starts, Bryan Herta 179. Lloyd Ruby 176. Danny Sullivan and Arie Luyendyk each ended on 170 starts. 

Alexander Rossi - 100th start
Where is he at: 93 starts.

What does he need to do: Make seven more starts, and Rossi will likely reach this in Detroit. 

I feel like 100 starts it the end to the first part of a career. Many drivers make it to 100. Only 55 drivers have made it to 150 starts. For Rossi, the last two seasons have been disappointing. After taking IndyCar by storm in his first three years, he has fallen short of a championship. Race victories have dried up. He once had a winning percentage of 11.667%. He won seven of his first 60 starts. He is now at 7.526% and if he goes winless through the first seven events of 2022, he will be down 7%. 

That isn't bad. Ryan Hunter-Reay had a winning percentage of 6.38%. Tony Kanaan is down to 4.39%. At Josef Newgarden's 100th start, he was only at 5%. Now, Newgarden is up to 12.195%.

There is plenty of time for Rossi to swing back around, but everything that happens after Rossi's 100th start will define his IndyCar career.

Dixon - 300 consecutive starts
Where is he at: 288 consecutive starts.

What does he need to do: Start the first 12 races of 2022. 

Dixon has not missed a race since a practice accident knocked him out of Milwaukee in 2004. He currently has the second consecutive longest start streak in IndyCar history, and he could become just the second driver to make 300 consecutive starts in IndyCar history.  

If he runs the full season, he will finish on 305 consecutive starts and be just 13 off Tony Kanaan's record of 318 starts stretching from Portland 2001 to the 2020 season opener at Texas. 

This is another record in grasp for Dixon, but it is two years away. 

Graham Rahal - Third-most starts between victories
Where is he at: 73 starts since his last victory.

What does he need to do: Not win any of the first five races and then win a race.

It has been over four-and-a-half years since Rahal's most recent IndyCar victory, finishing the sweep of the Belle Isle doubleheader in 2017. He has had a few close calls, but he has not made it back to the top step of the podium. 

Normally, we don't like to look at negative things like this, but there is something interesting about Rahal's drought. He hasn't won in 73 starts. If he were to win the 2022 season opener at St. Petersburg, this would be the fifth longest drought snapped in IndyCar history. If he were to win at Texas, he would tie Mario Andretti for the fourth longest drought snapped on 74 races. But if he were to not win one of the first five races and win this season, Rahal would have the third most starts between victories in IndyCar history.

What are the two longer droughts? Johnny Rutherford's 97 starts between his first career victory at Atlanta in 1965 and his second career victory in one of the California 500 qualifying races in 1973, and Graham Rahal's 124 starts between his first career victory at St. Petersburg in 2008 and Fontana in 2015.

Rahal could own the first and third longest droughts snapped in IndyCar history. No driver has snapped multiple droughts of 50 starts or more in a career. I know this is an honor no driver would like to have, and Rahal is chastised for not being more successful, but if Rahal does win a race this season, I think it shows perseverance. He should have won at least three or four times in the last four seasons. A few things didn't go his way, but Rahal keeps trying. 

That next victory is coming and if he doesn't win one of the first five races and assures himself at least third on this dubious list, the sixth race of 2022 is the Indianapolis 500 and that would be the perfect place for a drought to end. 

Will Power - All-time pole position leader
Where is he at: 63 pole positions

What does he need to do: Win five pole positions this season. 

Power could have gotten the all-time pole position record last year, but after a below-average year with one pole position meant he barely made a dent in his deficit to Mario Andretti's record. However, one pole position seasons are flukes for Power.

Since becoming a full-time driver in 2006, Power has seven seasons with five pole positions or more, and only three seasons with exactly one pole position. 

Power is due for a market correction. Five pole positions is still a lot, but if any driver can do achieve it, Power is the guy. I think the worst he does this year is end 2022 tied with Andretti and enter 2023 knowing his next pole position is the record. Either way, the record is falling either this year or next. 

Josef Newgarden - 3,000 laps led
Where is he at: 2,854 laps led.

What does he need to do: Lead 166 laps. 

Newgarden could reach this milestone about halfway through the Texas race. Only 15 drivers have led 3,000 laps in a career. Newgarden enters 2022 only two laps behind Tony Bettenhausen for 18th all-time, 11 laps behind Dan Wheldon for 17th and 117 laps behind Rodger Ward for 16th. He will be passing some notable names on his way to 3,000 laps led. 

How high could Newgarden climb in 2022? With Iowa having two races, the sky is the limit, but using data, Newgarden has led over 300 laps in seven consecutive seasons, and he has averaged 404.714 laps led over that spell with a median of 390. Using a range of 390 to 405 laps led, he could end up between 3,244 and 3,259 laps led. That would get him ahead of Bobby Rahal, who is 15th on 3,107 laps led but still over 100 laps behind Gordon Johncock in 14th. 

Dixon - 6,500 laps led
Where is he at: 6,342 laps led.

What does he need to do: Lead 158 laps. 

This is going to happen. He has led at least 158 laps in six of the last seven seasons and in 14 of the last 16 seasons. What does it mean if he reaches 6,500 laps led?

Dixon would be just the fourth driver to reach this milestone, but he could climb even higher. Dixon enters this season only 279 laps behind A.J. Foyt for third all-time and 350 laps behind Michael Andretti for second. He has led 340 laps and 401 laps in the last two seasons. He has led over 250 laps in five of the last seven seasons. 

Colton Herta - Eight victories in 50 starts
Where is he at: Six career victories in 48 starts.

What does he need to do: Win the first two races of the season.

This sounds like an odd one. What is a big deal about eight victories in 50 starts? Well, six victories out of 48 starts means Herta is winning one out of every eight starts, a winning percentage of 12.5%, greater than Newgarden at the present moment. If he were to win eight of his first 50 starts, he would have a 16% winning percentage. 

He will not be close to the record for most victories in the first 50 starts of a career. Sébastien Bourdais won 19 of his first 50 starts. Tony Bettenhausen had 18 victories in his first 50 starts. Jimmy Bryan had 17, Alex Zanardi had 15, Mario Andretti had 13, Johnnie Parsons had 11, Sam Hornish, Jr., Juan Pablo Montoya, and Dan Wheldon all had ten and Paul Tracy had nine victories. 

But do you know who had exactly eight victories in his first 50 starts? A.J. Foyt. 

If Colton Herta wins the first two races of 2022, he will remain on pace with A.J. Foyt. Herta only turns 22 years old this March 30. It is too soon to think he will break Foyt's record of 67 victories, but if Herta is at least on pace, we have to keep it in mind. 

It is unlikely Herta opens the season with two consecutive victories, especially after ending 2021 with two consecutive victories. Even if Herta only has six victories through 50 starts, it would tie him for 16th most victories at that point in a career with Danny Ongais. He already has more victories than Dario Franchitti, Bobby Rahal, teammate Alexander Rossi, Scott Dixon, Emerson Fittipaldi, Gordon Johncock and team owner Michael Andretti at this point in a career.

Herta is special, but the way he is going, he is set to do something great. 

Tony Kanaan and/or Juan Pablo Montoya - Four different decades with an IndyCar victory
Where are they at: Kanaan and Montoya have each won a race in three different decades.

What do they need to do: Win one race from now until the end of eternity. 

The problem for these drivers is Kanaan's plan is to only run the Indianapolis 500, and Montoya will only run the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the "500." Neither will have many opportunities to get that victory, and if Montoya doesn't win the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, then both drivers will only have the Indianapolis 500 to reach this milestone. Both cannot win the Indianapolis. 

If either were to win in 2022, they would become just the second driver to win in four different decades, joining Mario Andretti. I think that is a crazy fact and Kanaan and Montoya are the only winners from the 1990s still around. If neither these drivers can do it we are waiting until 2030 for this to be achieved, and I am not sure Scott Dixon or Will Power are going to stick around. Graham Rahal still must win in this decade to have a shot for this achievement in 2030. 

All we have are Kanaan and Montoya as one-offs. It likely will not happen, but it would be cool to see. Montoya could also join Bobby Unser as the only drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 in three different decades. That is a fitting accomplishment for Montoya, one of the greatest drivers of his generation. 

There will be plenty of other historic things to happen this year, but these are just a few to keep in mind. Some will happen, and you be glad you were prepared for these moments.