Thursday, September 15, 2022

Let's Look at the League - September 2022

The IndyCar season has concluded and in the aftermath of the season, we must put a bow on the league format for the 2022 IndyCar Series. 

When we last checked, the playoffs were set, a few notable faces were in danger of being relegated and League Two was entering its final weeks as the promotion spots were still up for grabs. 

How did it turn out? 

Playoffs
Quarterfinals (Gateway):
#12 Penske vs. #28 Andretti 
#8 CGR vs. #27 Andretti
#3 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#2 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi

#12 Penske def. #28 Andretti (6th to 13)
Will Power was one of the best drivers all race at Gateway, and Romain Grosjean was on an alternate strategy hoping to pull out a positive result. When the rains came and brought out a late caution, it trapped Grosjean a lap down and ensured Power a spot in the semifinals if he kept it out of the barrier. Power did. Power advanced. 

#8 CGR def. #27 Andretti (7th to 25th)
Marcus Ericsson was running much of this race in the top ten, but Alexander Rossi was not far off and one slip from Ericsson could have seen Rossi move ahead of the Swede. However, once Rossi stalled on a pit stop, it meant all Ericsson had to do was avoid any trouble of his own. Ericsson did. Ericsson advanced to take on Power in the semifinals.

#3 Penske def. #15 RLLR (3rd to 10th)
These were two entries in two different zip codes the entire race. Scott McLaughlin was always at the front contesting for the lead and Graham Rahal was always playing just to break the top ten. McLaughlin ended up third, Rahal tenth, McLaughlin moves on. 

#2 Penske def. #9 Ganassi (1st to 8th)
In a stellar quarterfinal matchup, Josef Newgarden took a good car and became great at Gateway while Scott Dixon could not match that pace. Newgarden pulled out a victory. Dixon was in the middle of the top ten the entire race and wound up eighth. Newgarden advanced.

Semifinals (Portland):
#12 Penske vs. #8 CGR
#2 Penske vs. #3 Penske

#12 Penske def. #8 CGR (2nd to 11th)
Power spent the entire Portland race at the front while Ericsson was rolling the dice on an alternate strategy that never appeared was going to work. Power kept it clean and finished second. Ericsson managed to finish 11th but was not going to finish much better than that. Power takes a spot in the final.

#3 Penske def. #2 Penske (1st to 8th)
For the first time, Josef Newgarden will not be league champion. Newgarden crossed his teammate McLaughlin at the wrong race weekend. McLaughlin took pole position. Newgarden qualified second but had to take a six-spot grid penalty and start eighth. McLaughlin was untouched. Newgarden was on the primary tire compound to finish the race and didn't have the same pace as the drivers around. Newgarden lost spots, but it didn't matter. McLaughlin ran away and into the final.

Final (Laguna Seca):
#12 Penske vs. #3 Penske

#12 Penske def. #3 Penske (3rd to 6th)

The champion is the champion. Champion on points, champion head-to-head, Will Power's consistent results would have him take this title as well, and this was more in his control than the actual championship. In the Laguna Seca finale, Power likely was only behind McLaughlin during the pit cycles and that couldn't have been more than four or five combined laps over the 95 laps run. 

Power kept it on the road and McLaughlin's four-stop strategy was worth the effort, but Power still took the championship with relative comfort.

With the championship taken care of, what about the relegation playoff? The sixth-place teams and seventh-place teams from each conference paired off with the loser of two rounds ending up relegated. Who stayed up and who ended up being the third team going down?

Relegation Playoff:
Semifinals (Gateway):
#26 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
#18 DCR vs. #45 RLLR

#5 AMSP def. #26 Andretti (4th to 11th)
In what was an unthinkable matchup at the start of the season for relegation, Patricio O'Ward took on Colton Herta with the loser facing the brink of being dropped to League Two. Herta had nothing for O'Ward. The Mexican driver comfortably ensured safety in League One for 2023.

#18 DCR vs. #45 RLLR (2nd to 24th)
When David Malukas needed his best race of the season, he got it. It also helped that Jack Harvey, in what started as his best run of the season, went high and brushed the wall exiting turn four. As long as Malukas didn't get into an accident or breakdown, he would be safe. Malukas did more than just maintain a safe position. He went for the race victory, and came close to achieving. 

Final (Portland):
#26 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR

#26 Andretti def. #45 RLLR (6th def. 15th)
The 2022 season was hellish for Herta, but it couldn't have been bad enough to warrant relegation. However, it couldn't be ruled out. But in Portland, Herta had an average race while Harvey languished for another event. Herta was unchallenged and maintained a spot in the top league. The third RLLR entry, however, will go down to League Two for the 2023 season.

Speaking of League Two, the final three races would determine the three promoted teams for the 2023 League One season. Entering Gateway, five teams were competing for the three spots. How did it turn out?

League Two (Through 15 weeks):

1. #7 Arrow McLaren SP 12-3
2. #21 ECR 11-4
3. #06 Meyer Shank 11-4
4. #20 ECR 10-5
5. #48 Ganassi 10-5
6. #29 Andretti 7-8
7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 6-9
8. #14 Foyt 4-11
9. #4 Foyt 3-12
10. #11 Foyt 1-14

What happened over the final three weeks?

1. #7 Arrow McLaren SP 15-3
Gateway: WIN (16th to #20's 26th)
Portland: WIN (10th to #06's 17th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (4th to #4's 25th)

2. #48 Ganassi 13-5
Gateway: WIN (14th to #14's 17th) 
Portland: WIN (24th to #20's 25th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (16th to #06's 19th)

3. #21 ECR 12-6
Gateway: LOSS (23rd to #29's 12th)
Portland: LOSS (20th to #14's 13th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (15th to #20's 24th)

4. #06 Meyer Shank 12-6
Gateway: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Portland: LOSS (17th to #7's 10th)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (19th to #48's 16th)

5. #20 ECR 10-8
Gateway: LOSS (26th to #7's 16th)
Portland: LOSS (25th to #48's 24th)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (24th to #21's 14th)

6. #29 Andretti 9-9
Gateway: WIN (12th to #21's 23rd)
Portland: LOSS (16th to #77's 9th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (15th to #14's 21st)

7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 8-10
Gateway: LOSS (21st to #4's 18th)
Portland: WIN (9th to #29's 16th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)

8. #14 Foyt 5-13
Gateway: LOSS (17th to #48's 14th)
Portland: WIN (13th to #21's 20th)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (21st to #29's 15th)

9. #4 Foyt 5-13
Gateway: WIN (18th to #77's 21st)
Portland: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (25th to #7's 4th)

10. #11 Foyt 1-16
Gateway: LOSS (Did not appear)
Portland: LOSS (Did not appear)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (Did not appear)


The #7 AMSP entry clinched promotion at Portland but entering the final weekend it was three teams competing for two spots, and two went head-to-head in the final weekend. The #48 Ganassi entry of Jimmie Johnson versus the #06 Meyer Shank Racing entry of Hélio Castroneves. The winner was guaranteed promotion. Castroneves qualified 12th, his second best starting position of the season. Johnson qualified 23rd. And Johnson won it! 

Castroneves had nothing serious go wrong, and Johnson didn't do anything spectacular, but Johnson made five pit stops and overcame a penalty for spinning Dalton Kellett. It wasn't really that weekend though but every weekend that earned Johnson and the #48 CGR entry promotion. 

Johnson made most of the situation. He went 5-1 in oval scenarios, 4-1 in races and then he won his Indianapolis 500 qualifying head-to-head matchup. He also caught some breaks. A 20th at Long Beach got him a win, same with a 24th at Barber when Callum Ilott had a spin and finished 25th. Johnson was 22nd at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and beat Rinus VeeKay in 23rd. His 21st at Toronto defeated Dalton Kellett's 24th and then his 24th at Portland defeated Conor Daly's 25th at Portland when Daly retired. 

Five of Johnson's victories came when he finished 20th or worse. Three of those were where he beat his opponent by finishing directly ahead of them. Drivers finishing 20th or worse went a combined 16-94 this season. Johnson is responsible for nearly a third of them. Dalton Kellett won three times when finishing 20th or worse. Castroneves and Devlin DeFrancesco each won twice. Felix Rosenqvist, David Malukas, Scott McLaughlin and Jack Harvey were responsible for the other four. 

The breaks fell for Johnson and he caught drivers on their worst days at the most opportune time for Johnson. League One, here he comes. 

Castroneves lost, but he still had a shot at promotion. He just needed Daly in the #20 ECR entry to defeat VeeKay in the #21 ECR entry. Daly had a bad race. VeeKay was 14th. Daly was 24th. VeeKay won. The #06 MSR and the #21 ECR entries were tied at 12-6, but the #21 ECR entry gets promotion because VeeKay was 2-0 head-to-head against Castroneves. 

VeeKay was third at Barber while Castroneves was 21st, and VeeKay was 19th in the second Iowa race while Castroneves was 21st. The #21 ECR entry goes up. The #06 MSR entry stays up. And we are set. 

What does the 2023 league structure tentatively look like?

2023 League One - Conference One
#12 Penske
#3 Penske
#10 Ganassi
#7 AMSP
#27 Andretti
#21 ECR
#28 Andretti
#48 Ganassi

2023 League One - Conference Two
#2 Penske
#9 Ganassi
#8 Ganassi
#5 AMSP
#26 Andretti
#15 RLLR
#60 MSR
#18 DCR

2023 League Two
#30 RLLR
#20 ECR
#06 MSR
#51 DCR
#45 RLLR
#77 JHR
#29 Andretti
#14 Foyt
#4 Foyt

As of now, we only have nine League Two entries, but it is guaranteed Arrow McLaren SP will have a third car. At least one great driver will be in League Two. Juncos Hollinger Racing has announced a second car. It looks unlikely A.J. Foyt Racing will return to three cars, but that is another possibility. Dale Coyne Racing has flirted with expanding to three cars. 

It should also be noted a League Two team or one of the relegated League One teams could catch a break be in League One if teams change and one team closes down. There will be some adjustments when the grid fills out and March nears. Currently, this is the base for 2023 and we will make necessary tweaks before finalizing this structure next February. Either way, we are looking at possibly having the most teams in the head-to-head league structure since this hypothetical started ahead of the 2019 season. 



Wednesday, September 14, 2022

2022 Road to Indy Review

Will Power took his second IndyCar championship at Laguna Seca, but a handful of other champions were decided over the last few weekends across the three Road to Indy series.

There were a few runaway champions who are ready for the next level. There were plenty of other talented drivers that provide much excitement over possible future IndyCar grids and other motorsports series. We are blessed with current crop of drivers developing. 

As usual, we will look at the three championships, review the championship finishers to see how they did against preseason expectations and determine what their next steps should be for the 2023 season.

Indy Lights
Linus Lundqvist: #26 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara (1st, 575 points)
What did I write before the season: Considering Lundqvist is the top returning driver from last season, he is one of the championship favorites. Kyle Kirkwood and David Malukas might have been the clear number one and number two drivers last year, but Lundqvist was closer to those two than the rest of the field was to him. 

However, the new drivers joining this series will make it anything but a given that Lundqvist will run away with this title. He should win, but he will need to be more dominant to take the championship. 

How wrong was it: Lundqvist was more dominant, he won five times, stood on the podium nine times and finished in the top five in 13 of 14 races to comfortable take the championship ahead of everyone else. 

What should he do in 2023: IndyCar. We aren't sure how the seats will fall. Dale Coyne Racing with HMD Motorsports has said it is interested in expanding to three cars. That third car would likely be Lundqvist full-time. However, the Honda engine leases are all accounted for and Honda has no interest in adding another, which makes it tougher for Lundqvist to end up on the IndyCar grid full-time. 

Lundqvist might have to look at other organizations, but I am not sure many are better or equal to what he would get at Coyne. A.J. Foyt Racing is a step down. Juncos Racing will expand to two cars, but many drivers are in contention for that seat. Every other team appears to be fully subscribed. Lundqvist will get some IndyCar races next year, at least three and one will be the Indianapolis 500, but his full-time aspirations will be more difficult to pull off. 

Sting Ray Robb: #2 Sekady Capital Dallara (2nd, 483 points)
What did I write before the season: Robb was a non-factor for most of the 2021 season, but his testing pace had him closer to the top. He topped the Laguna Seca test earlier this month. Robb developed in each season he ran in Indy Pro 2000. Results should be better this year. He is with the best team on the grid. A race victory isn't out of the question, but I am not certain he can string together the results for a championship.

How wrong was it: Robb did string together great results, six podium finishes and nine top five results through the first ten races, but the victory did not come until the penultimate race of the season. He ended the season with two podium finishes after a pair of sixth-place finishes. With Lundqvist winning at the rate he was, Robb wasn't doing enough to challenge for the championship.

What should he do in 2023: Year three in Indy Lights. Robb is bound to win more races if he sticks around for a third year.

Matthew Brabham: #83 Andretti Autosport Dallara (3rd, 471 points)
What did I write before the season: After nearly seven years since his last Indy Lights start, Brabham is back as he takes one final crack at making it to IndyCar. If Brabham was making this move four years ago, I probably would have chalked him as a championship threat. However, after all this time away, and seeing the testing results, I think Brabham will be playing catchup the first half of the season. 

He had good days in testing, but also had days where he was toward the bottom of the speed chart. Results should be better at the end of the year than at the start. He could be knocking on the door for victories.  

How wrong was it: A fortunate series of event led to Brabham winning the season opener, but he was outside the top five for the next three races. He did regain composure and came on strong in the second half of the season. He should have won at Iowa before Lundqvist blocked him into the wall, but Brabham did receive justice and won at Gateway. He looked better on the road/street courses later in the season.

What should he do in 2023: This was the crossroads season for Brabham, almost championship-or-bust. He didn't get the scholarship money to get a few IndyCar races in 2023, including the Indianapolis 500. It is hard to believe the money will be there for another Indy Lights season. His saving grace could be Colton Herta going to Formula One, and if that happens there is a slim hope Brabham could find himself in the #26 Honda for Andretti Autosport in IndyCar. There will be stiff competition for that seat, but I think Brabham, deserves the opportunity. He deserves a chance somewhere higher than Indy Lights.

Hunter McElrea: #27 Giltrap Group/Objective Dallara (4th, 460 points)
What did I write before the season: McElrea was not far off his Andretti teammate Robb at the Laguna Seca test, and he has been close to the top at every test this offseason. The American-born New Zealander has always been good in his Road to Indy career, but he has yet to be the standout driver in a series. I think that will continue with top five finishes and perhaps a win or two, but another driver or two will end up better.

How wrong was it: McElrea won twice and wound up fourth in the championship, so actually three drivers were better than him. McElrea had a slow start but a tremendous finish. He had one top five and three finishes outside the top ten in the first five races. He followed that with eight consecutive top five finishes, six of which were podium results. It was pretty close between second and fourth in the championship. Any of Robb, Brabham or McElrea have a case for second in the championship.  

What should he do in 2023: We know McElrea will be back for the 2023 season with Andretti Autosport, and he has to be the early favorite for the championship next year with Robb.

Benjamin Pedersen: #24 Global Racing Group Dallara (5th, 44 points)
What did I write before the season: Pedersen showed in testing he is ready to take the next step in Indy Lights. He led the Chris Griffis Memorial Test in October at the IMS road course and then led tests at Sebring and Homestead last month. Pedersen didn't win a race and really never came close in 2021, but that should change this year. 

He should have a few days where he is the one on top. Can he do that for an entire season? He ended strong last year. If he repeats that for the entire 2022 campaign, with a few victories mixed in, he will be in the championship conversation.

How wrong was it: Pedersen almost had the reverse of his 2021 season where he started the season really strong, had a bad middle portion and then found his form at the end and scored a victory at Portland. Unfortunately, he wasn't consistent enough to be a championship contender.

What should he do in 2023: This is one driver who has been on the IndyCar radar basically since June and for the last three months we have known Pedersen has been linked to A.J. Foyt Racing. I don't see this as a great move for either party. Foyt is banking on the driver that was fifth in Indy Lights to raise its results and Pedersen is hoping Foyt can springboard his career at the top level of IndyCar. Neither is going to happen. I think Pedersen would be better off with another year in Indy Lights. He isn't a fully developed driver yet. Going to Foyt isn't going to help him. 

Christian Rasmussen: #28 Andretti Autosport Dallara
What did I write before the season: Rasmussen has been phenomenal in the Road to Indy. Third in U.S. F2000 in 2019, U.S. F2000 champion in 2020 with nine victories and he won the Indy Pro 2000 title last year with seven victories. It is easy to chalk the Dane down as champion apparent for this year in Indy Lights, but it doesn't normally work that way. He was regularly in the top five during testing, but normally not even the fastest in the Andretti team. He will have a good year, but he will need to be better than ever to win the championship. This season could be a wake-up call.

How wrong was it: This season was a wake-up call. Rasmussen did win at Road America and the final race at Laguna Seca, but he was outside the top ten in five races. A few of those results were for things out of his control, such as running out of fuel while leading at St. Petersburg. It wasn't a bad season, but Rasmussen never looked like the clear guy to beat in Indy Lights this year. 

What should he do in 2023: The talent is still there for Rasmussen to be an IndyCar driver. He is 22 years old and he will turn 23 in middle of next season, but he should take another year in Indy Lights and polish his craft. He can still make it to IndyCar. Funding is tight and it would be a bad loss for the series if Rasmussen did not return.

Danial Frost: #79 Den-Jet Dallara (7th, 382 points)
What did I write before the season: Frost has been a good but not great driver in the Road to Indy. He can finish in the top five, but he isn't a regular challenger for victories. That will not change this year. Considering the talent entering Indy Lights, Frost is likely to drop out of the top five in the championship.  

How wrong was it: Frost dropped to seventh in the championship, but he did score his first career victory at the IMS road course. Frost opened the season with three consecutive top five finishes, and was second in the championship after that victory, but he had only two more top five finishes over the final 11 races.

What should he do in 2023: I think we have a good sense of who Frost is as a driver. He will turn 21 years old in October. He can stay for another Indy Lights season and probably make some gains, but he could also move on and explore other championships.

Jacob Abel: #51 Abel Speedwagon Dallara (8th, 355 points)
What did I write before the season: Last year, Abel completed his first full season in a Road to Indy series after a smattering of U.S. F2000 starts between 2017 and 2018 and part-time Indy Pro 2000 season in 2019 and 2020, though he ran most of the races in 2019. He did well last year, but never showed he was a force. There could be a few good days, but I do not see him controlling this championship.

How wrong was it: Abel never controlled the championship, but he did get five top five finishes, including three consecutive to finish the season. He ended the season on the correct trajectory. 

What should he do in 2023: Stay in Indy Lights. Abel had a few good days. He is driving for his family's team against Indy Lights stalwarts. He did wonderful considering his team's position. Perhaps next year the group can mix it up with the likes of Andretti Autosport and HMD Motorsports.

Kyffin Simpson: #21 TJ Speed Motorsports Dallara/#21 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara (9th, 312 points)
What did I write before the season: Simpson was a little all over the place last year. He wasn't the best driver in Indy Pro 2000, but he had a few promising days. He was second in the Indy Lights Chris Griffis Memorial Test at the IMS road course in October but dropped back in testing last month at Sebring and Homestead.

I don't get a clear sense where he falls. He has been stellar in some series and only good in some others. I think we will see similar results to what he did in Indy Pro 2000. There will be a few races he is on the podium and pushing for the top spot and then others when he is eighth or ninth. He will be in the back half of the top ten of the championship. 

How wrong was it: Simpson ended up ninth in the championship. His best finish was fifth on two occasions but he was ninth or worse in nine of 14 races. 

What should he do in 2023: Strangely, Simpson is a Chip Ganassi Racing development driver. He isn't going anywhere and we could see him be more competitive next season, but unlike Abel who was showing great pace at the end of the season, Simpson switched to a better team midseason and the results didn't really improve. 

Ernie Francis, Jr.: #99 Force Indy Dallara
What did I write before the season: Francis, Jr. makes a big jump into Indy Lights after an impressive 2021 season in multiple series. This is a big push for IndyCar's diversity initiative. This will be a greater challenge for him and the team. I am not sure Francis, Jr. will be fighting for victories, but considering the gains he made in Formula Regional Americas last year, his first real season in a single-seater car, I would not be surprised if he starts slow but is in the top five and pushing for podium results toward the end of the season. This should be a two-year, if not three-year program.

How wrong was it: That push for the top five didn't really happen. Francis, Jr.'s best finish seventh in the St. Petersburg season opener. He was constantly around eighth, ninth or tenth. 

What should he do in 2023: As I wrote before the start of the season, this has to be a two-year, if not a three-year program. Francis, Jr. should come back for another season. I don't want to see him leave after just one year in Indy Lights. Let's give a second season a go and see what gains can be made.

Christian Bogle: #7 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara
What did I write before the season: Bogle wasn't ready for Indy Lights last year after moving up directly from U.S. F2000 and he isn't any more prepared this year. His results should be close to identical to the year before.

How wrong was it: Outside of the first Belle Isle race where accidents lifted Bogle to fourth, he was outside the top ten in six races. He ended up 11th in the championship like last year.

What should he do in 2023: Bogle is committed to Indy Lights even if it isn't going to pan out. Indy Lights need entries anywhere. Someone has to be at the back of the grid. 

James Roe, Jr.: #12 Topcon Dallara/#11 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara
What did I write before the season: Roe, Jr. was respectable in Indy Pro 2000 last year. This is a tougher series than Indy Pro 2000 was last year. If Roe can pull out a few top five finishes, that would make this year a success. His main goal should be to develop and look toward a second Indy Lights season in 2023.

How wrong was it: Those top five finishes never came. Roe, Jr. had seven finishes outside the top ten. The speed was never really there for a top five result. He did improve after moving to HMD Motorsports and he left the championship just prior to the Portland round.

What should he do in 2023: It wouldn't be bad if Roe, Jr. returned to Indy Lights. Moving down to Indy Pro 2000 wouldn't be bad either, but he could be done with the Road to Indy after the premature end to his season.

Antonio Serravalle: #11 Abel Motorsports Dallara/#11 HMD Motorsports with Dale Coyne Racing Dallara
What did I write before the season: Serravalle is only signed up for the St. Petersburg season opener. Even if he runs more races or a full season, I do not expect much change from what we saw in 2021.

How wrong was it: Serravalle did get six more race weekends with HMD Motorsports, but he did not run the final five races of the season. He did not score a top five finish, like last season, and he was 12th in the championship, like last season.

What should he do in 2023: I sense this is the last we have seen from Serravalle in Indy Lights. It will be on to sports cars or another discipline if he continues in 2023.

Who should we have seen more of?
TJ Speed Motorsports were clearly the bottom of the Indy Lights grid this year, but in a series that has been struggling for entries for over a decade, it cannot afford to lose two cars midseason. The grid started at 14 entries, which is good for Indy Lights, but by Road America it was down to 13 cars and it was down to 12 cars at Nashville. It rebounded back to 13 for the final few races, but Indy Lights needs more teams competing.

Indy Lights needs to get to a place where it has 16-20 entries in every race and it has 16-20 drivers running every race and not having two or three quit midseason. 

Who have we seen enough of?
In a good way, Lundqvist and Brabham because they both showed they are ready to compete at a higher level. 
 
In a bad way, we know what we are getting from Bogle and Serravalle. 

Indy Pro 2000
Louis Foster: #90 Copart/Novara Technologies Tatuus (1st, 451 points)
What did I write before the season: Foster has a chance for the championship. He was third in testing. He is coming over from a respected European championship. The one concern is all these tracks will be new and his main rivals have been in the Road to Indy for multiple years. He should win a few races and if he doesn't experience a difficult learning curve he will be in the championship conversation.

How wrong was it: Foster did not experience a difficult learning curve, the tracks were not incomprehensible, Foster won seven races, stood on the podium 11 times and he won the championship two races early. 

What should he do in 2023: Foster is taking the money to Indy Lights and he will drive for Andretti Autosport. That is a prime position for a future chance at IndyCar. 

Reece Gold: #55 The Ticket Clinic Tatuus (2nd, 390 points)
What did I write before the season: Gold showed good results last year, but he couldn't quite get over the top and be one of the top drivers in the series. He was fifth in testing, and he should win a few more times than he did last year. He is going to push for the championship. 

How wrong was it: Gold went from one victory in 2021 to four victories in 2022. He pushed for the championship, but Foster was almost untouchable this season.

What should he do in 2023: Move up to Indy Lights.

Enaam Ahmed: #47 Clear Capital Markets Tatuus (3rd, 338 points)
What did I write before the season: If Ahmed contests the full season, I could see him competing for race victories and have an outside chance at the championship, but he needs to be in Indy Pro 2000 for the entire year.

How wrong was it: Ahmed did contest an entire Indy Pro 2000 season, and he had a chance at the championship, but fell short. He had 13 top five finishes, but did not win a race. He was always on the periphery though and could never be counted out.

What should he do in 2023: He will turn 23 years old next February, about a month before the 2023 Road to Indy series seasons should begin. I think he should move up to Indy Lights if an opportunity presents itself. 

Nolan Siegel: #8 Towne Ford/Race for RP Tatuus (4th, 333 points)
What did I write before the season: Siegel had a few good days in U.S. F2000 but never found the consistency to be a regular challenger at the front. He was sixth at the Homestead. That Gateway result shows he is capable for this level. He can be challenging for top five finishes and get on the podium a few times. I am not convinced he will come right in and be a title contender.

How wrong was it: The season started well with two victories in the first four races for Siegel, and through the first half he looked like a title contender, but the result were too inconsistent to take on the likes of Foster and Gold. It was still a good year.

What should he do in 2023: Siegel only turns 18 years old in November. A second Indy Pro 2000 season would be good for him, but he made his Indy Lights debut at the Laguna Seca finale driving for HMD Motorsports. He looked ok, finishing tenth and ninth in 13-car fields. Those results were on short notice. A few more test sessions and he could gain more ground with greater comfort in that car.

Braden Eves: #4 CCFI/Huston Insurance/Addison Holdings LLC/Coastal Local Seafood Tatuus (5th, 304 points)
What did I write before the season: Eves should be battling for the championship. He traded blows with Christian Rasmussen last year only for Rasmussen to be more dominant. Eves should win more than last year and if he does that he has a better shot at the title. Anything lower than second in the championship would be a disappointment.

How wrong was it: Eves fell off a little. He started great with four top five results from the first four races, and he crossed the line first in the fifth race of the season at the IMS road course, but a technical infringement led to a disqualification. From there, Eves' season wasn't the same. He did win at Road America, but results were choppy.

What should he do in 2023: He has spent three seasons in Indy Pro 2000. He is 23 years old. I think he is ready for Indy Lights. This season didn't go as planned, but he was still competitive and is ready for a move up. 

Josh Green: #3 Session Guardian/Zimperium/Lionfish Consulting/Coach Mark Green/JHG Investment Fund Tatuus (6th, 298 points)
What did I write before the season: Green was consistent in U.S. F2000. His testing pace was encouraging at Homestead, finishing eighth. This is a greater challenge than a year before. A few top five finishes with an occasional trip to the podium would be a good year for him.

How wrong was it: One victory and four podium finishes highlighted Green's season. He was in the fight for a top five championship finish for the entire year.

What should he do in 2023: Another year in Indy Pro 2000. This was a good year, but work still needs to be done.

Kiko Porto: #1 Banco Daycoval/Petromega Tatuus (7th, 290 points)
What did I write before the season: Porto was a quick driver in his first two U.S. F2000 seasons. Prior to that, he was runner-up in the Formula 4 United States Championship in 2019. He will be competitive and could be fighting for race victories. He was 11th at the Homestead preseason test, but I don't think that is a true indication of where he will be in 2022. He will challenge for a top five championship spot.

How wrong was it: Porto did win at Mid-Ohio, but he was not regularly contending for race victories. He was a second tier Indy Pro 2000 driver this year, not far off the top five in the championship, but never really in it. 

What should he do in 2023: He made big gains between year one and year two in U.S. F2000. A second year in Indy Pro 2000 would likely match what we saw in the lowest level of the Road to Indy.

Salvador de Alba: #6 Grupe Indi/Mecano/Sidral Aga Tatuus (8th, 289 points)
What did I write before the season: Alba is transitioning from stock car racing, and he was respectable in testing, ending up ninth. He will have a few good days and a few bad days. I don't expect him to be challenging his teammates regularly. A solid top ten championship finish will be a good year.

How wrong was it: De Alba had a sold top ten championship finish in eighth with victories on the IMS road course and Gateway highlight his year. There were more good days than bad days, but he did have a few race weekends where he wasn't quite threatening the top.

What should he do in 2023: This was de Alba's first full season in single-seater competition. I think a move to Indy Lights would be rushed. A second year in Indy Pro 2000 would be better.

Jack William Miller: #40 Indy Dental Group, LLC/Patterson Dental Tatuus (9th, 251 points)
What did I write before the season: About the same as 2021, but he did improve notable from year one to year two in U.S. F2000. I feel like this Indy Pro 2000 grid will not allow Miller to make the same kind of improvement though.

How wrong was it: Miller was two positions better in the championship and he did get on the podium twice. He had six top five finishes after one last year.

What should he do in 2023: There might have been an improvement but Miller isn't ready for Indy Lights. He should stay where he is at for another year.

Yuven Sundaramoorthy: #18 S Team Motorsports Tatuus (10th, 244 points)
What did I write before the season: After a breakout year in his third U.S. F2000 season, I expect Sundaramoorthy to reset and have to build up again in Indy Pro 2000. He was 15th in testing. If he can get into the top five in some races those would be good results.

How wrong was it: It was a reset for Sundaramoorthy. He was a top ten championship driver, but had rough days. He did get on the podium three times but did have eight finishes outside the top ten.

What should he do in 2023: Compete in a second Indy Pro 2000 season.

Jordan Missig: #19 AMW Ventures/Motorsports 4 Mental Health Tatuus (11th, 199 points)
What did I write before the season: Missig was respectable in Formula Regional Americas, but success in one series does not guarantee success in another. Missig was slowest at the Homestead test. I think he will be running around his teammate Sundaramoorthy and that could be outside the top ten.

How wrong was it: Missig was right behind his teammate Sundaramoorthy in the championship and it was outside the top ten in the championship.

What should he do in 2023: If Sundaramoorthy should stay in Indy Pro 2000, Missig should do the same.

Jonathan Browne: #2 Human Centered Movement/CRPS Awareness Tatuus (12th, 187 points)
What did I write before the season: Browne is a relative unknown. I think he will struggle and be a frequent finisher outside the top ten.

How wrong was it: Browne had 11 top ten finishes, his best finish was fifth and he did start on pole position at the IMS road course. He did skip the Gateway round. But he was also 12th in the championship.

What should he do in 2023: Good question. Stay in Indy Pro 2000 and see if he can crack the top ten in the championship.

Wyatt Brichacek: #5 JHDD/CSU | One Care/Lucas Oil Tatuus (13th, 160 points)
What did I write before the season: Surprisingly, Brichacek led the Homestead test. For a driver that has never finished on the podium between 37 Road to Indy starts and 34 Formula 4 United States championship starts, I am not sure one test is enough to say he is now the favorite. I need more than a test to say he will be a champion, but I think he can finally get a top five finish and could end up on the podium a few times. We cannot entirely rule out a victory or two, but let's not pencil those down just yet.

How wrong was it: Testing results were misleading and Brichacek was 13th in the championship. He didn't get on a podium, but he did have two top five finishes. He did finish outside the top ten in eight of 14 starts and he did not compete in the final two race weekends. 

What should he do in 2023: He isn't Indy Lights quality. Not completing the season does not suggest he will return to the Road to Indy in 2023.

Colin Kaminsky: #27 Slick Lock Machine Tatuus (14th, 144 points)
What did I write before the season: We know Kaminsky is a good driver after finishing eighth in this championship in 2020. He was 13th in testing, which raises an eyebrow. If he is full-time, he can finish in the top ten in the championship, but I do think he can break the top five.

How wrong was it: Kaminsky was not full time but he had three podium finishes. The problem is he was tenth or worse in six of the first ten races. His points per race suggest he would have been ninth in the championship.

What should he do in 2023: He is good, but Indy Pro 2000 could be the plateau for his Road to Indy career. He could find his footing in sports cars. 

Who should we have seen more of?
Christian Brooks was initially going to drive for Exclusive Autosport and be teammate to Louis Foster in the 2022 season. Brooks was third in the opening practice session, but he had an accident in qualifying that damaged the car and did not allow him to participate in the rest of the weekend. Brooks didn't appear again this season. After finishing sixth in the 2021 U.S. F2000 championship and being fifth in both races of the 2021 Indy Pro 2000 season finale at Mid-Ohio, it felt like Brooks would have been a strong competitor this season and made some noise. Hopefully we see him in competition again somewhere soon. 

Also, it would have been nice if Kaminsky had seen out a full season. 

Who have we seen enough of?
Not in a negative way, but I think we know where the ceiling is for the likes of Jack William Miller and Yuven Sundaramoorthy.

U.S. F2000
Michael d'Orlando: #4 Focused Project Management/UFC Gym - Mamaroneck/Design Build Collaborative/Dino Luzzi Energy Drink Tatuus (1st, 387 points)
What did I write before the season: D'Orlando is the championship favorite. Kiko Porto had a stronger end to the 2021 season, but d'Orlando was not far off. He ended the season with four consecutive pole positions, but he couldn't translate those into race victories. I expect an improvement on that. He was fastest at the Homestead test. The championship goes through him.

How wrong was it: Though the championship favorite won the championship, this title was anything but that straightforward for d'Orlando. He entered the final weekend 22 points behind Myles Rowe and it took winning the final race for d'Orlando to be champion, but it was him and Rowe for the entire season. D'Orlando won four races, stood on the podium eight times and he had 14 top five finishes.

What should he do in 2023: D'Orlando is more than ready to move up to Indy Pro 2000.

Myles Rowe: #22 Penske Entertainment Tatuus (2nd, 381 points)
What did I write before the season: Rowe showed potential in 2021, but also was caught in many accidents. If he can limit the damage, he should make a jump up the championship. He was 14th in the test. This is a program he has crowd sourced for funding. There is a lot of pressure on him. I think he can be in the top ten of the championship.

How wrong was it: While Rowe was in the top ten of the championship, he was much better than just being in the top ten. He was one of the best drivers of the season with five victories and ten podium finishes. Unfortunately, a few bad results really cost him the championship. He had accident battling for the lead on the final lap of the first race at St. Petersburg, he was knocked off the road while in second late in the first Portland race before contact with his teammate Jace Denmark ruined the second Portland race and he had to drive from the back to fifth in the final race of the season. If in just one of those races he just settles for second or third or even fourth, he is champion. With all that said, this was a tremendous improvement from 2021 and a sign of incredible growth.

What should he do in 2023: Rowe is ready for Indy Pro 2000.

Jace Denmark: #23 Metal Works Custom Fabrication Tatuus (3rd, 363 points)
What did I write before the season: Denmark had a good year one and he should improve, but I am not sure he will be contending for race victories regularly. I expect more top five finishes than the year before.

How wrong was it: Denmark was third in the championship, an eight-spot improvement from 11th in 2021. He did win four races, including cleaning up the mess created on the final lap of race one in St. Petersburg. He went from two top five finishes to 13 top five finishes, nine of which were podium results. 

What should he do in 2023: He turned 18 in the middle of this season, but I think he is ready for Indy Pro 2000. If he stays in U.S. F2000, he will be one of the championship favorites.

Jagger Jones: #3 Cape Motorsports Tatuus (4th, 294 points)
What did I write before the season: Jones led the Chris Griffis Memorial Test last autumn and he was second in the Homestead preseason test. This is a significant shift from stock cars, especially after an extended period off. So far, the results are promising. It feels like he is bound to win a few races, but can he put a complete year together? He should be in the top five of the championship. If everything goes right and mistakes are minimized, a championship is not out of the question. 

How wrong was it: Jones was fourth in the championship and he only won one race. Considering his shift to single-seater cars, it is surprising Jones had most of his success early in the season and results fell off as the season went along. It was an encouraging year for Jones.

What should he do in 2023: The 2023 plans are already confirmed. Jones will leap up to Indy Lights next year with Cape Motorsports. That is a mighty jump. A few drivers have done it before, but it is a tremendous gamble. The difference between Jones and other U.S. F2000 drivers is he was 20 years old and a rookie in this series. You don't need to be in IndyCar by the age of 22, but you also don't want to be stuck at the bottom of the ladder system at that age. I think Jones is ready for Indy Pro 2000, but another year in U.S. F2000 wouldn't have hurt. Jumping to Indy Lights is a risk, but one he almost has to take considering his age. 

Billy Frazer: #92 Cambridge Global Services/Giltrap Group Tatuus (5th, 268 points)
What did I write before the season: Frazer was just behind his teammate and fellow countryman in testing. Frazer will be fighting for more top five finishes and be on the podium a few times. There could be a race or two where he is sniffing a victory.

How wrong was it: Frazer went from two top five finishes to seven top five finishes, however, all seven of those results were podium finishes. Frazer was either fighting at the very front or outside the top ten. In the final ten races, Frazer was third in three races and outside the top ten in the other seven. If he had any shred of consistency, he might have been in the title fight. He didn't win a race but he was there. 

What should he do in 2023: The pace is there for Frazer to move up to Indy Pro 2000, but his form suggests he should stay in U.S. F2000 and work on getting better finishes. 

Thomas Nepveu: #10 Cromwell/Pétrole Bélanger/Home Hardware/Espace Papier Tatuus (6th, 262 points)
What did I write before the season: This could be a breakout year for Nepveu. He did well last year in U.S. F2000 considering his limited experience in car racing. There is plenty of ground to gain and I think he can do it. He has an outside shot at the championship, and he could win multiple times this year. Nepveu was third in testing.

How wrong was it: Victory did not come to Nepveu in 2022, but he was leading the first race at St. Petersburg when he and Rowe got together. After that accident, it shocked Nepveu's season and he was around the top five, but wasn't showing that same race contending pace. It took him until the tenth race of the season to get a podium. It was a good year and he showed better consistency than Frazer.

What should he do in 2023: A third year in U.S. F2000 wouldn't be a bad thing, but I do think he could move to Indy Pro 2000 and do well there.

Nicky Hays: #5 Touchstone Helicopters/Molecule Sports/Sparco USA Tatuus (7th, 235 points)
What did I write before the season: Hays was 12th in the test. While not completely out of racing, he wasn't in a major series last year. He will be fighting just to break into the top ten of the championship.

How wrong was it: Hays had a good season and ended up seventh in the championship. At the end of the season, he stood on the podium in the final two races, two runner-up finishes. He did have 12 top ten finishes.

What should he do in 2023: Stay in U.S. F2000. He should be one of the title contenders next year.

Christian Weir: #32 EComfort.com/Ferguson/ProFlow Tatuus (8th, 229 points)
What did I write before the season: Last year was a good audition for Weir. He is only 15 years old. He should be a regular top ten finishes and could get into the top five a few times. He should be developing for another year in this series.  

How wrong was it: Weir had 11 top ten finishes, two of which were podium results. He had four total top five results.

What should he do in 2023: He turns 16 years old next year. Stay in U.S. F2000. There is no rush to get into IndyCar. Stay in U.S. F2000 and aim for Indy Pro 2000 in 2024. He could still make it to IndyCar by the age of 20 at that pace. 

Bijoy Garg: #12 DEForce Racing Tatuus (9th, 203 points)
What did I write before the season: Considering he had only one top ten finish, Garg should do significantly better this year. He was ninth in testing, but I do not see him fighting with Nepveu. A few top five finishes would be a good year for him, but that is setting the bar high.

How wrong was it: Garg was third in the opening race at St. Petersburg and runner-up at Indianapolis Raceway Park. He had four total top five finishes, but he did not compete in the final round at Portland, easily costing him at least two positions in the championship.

What should he do in 2023: This was Garg's third season competing in U.S. F2000. He really put in a lot of time developing for this year. It was his best year by far, but the more fulfilling path would be exploring sports car racing rather than moving to Indy Pro 2000. 

Spike Kohlbecker: #33 tierpoint/KhS/Rsolution/True Title Company/Fort Family Foundation Tatuus (10th, 200 points)
What did I write before the season: After ending up tenth in testing, I think Kohlbecker will be around where he was last year. I am not anticipating a giant leap forward.

How wrong was it: Kohlbecker went backward. He went from seventh in the championship to tenth in the championship. He went from 13 top ten finishes to 12 top ten finishes. 

What should he do in 2023: He turns 20 years old this December. If he wants to return to U.S. F2000, he is more than welcome to do so.

Dylan Christie: #11 Stilo Tatuus (11th, 188 points)
What did I write before the season: After ending up 16th in testing, I do not foresee a major gain this year.

How wrong was it: There was a minor gain. Christie was up four positions in the championship from last year and he had ten top ten finishes, three of which were top five results, including a third at Toronto. He had four top ten finishes during the entire 2021 season. 

What should he do in 2023: Christie will only turn 19 years old during the offseason. Another year in U.S. F2000 could see greater improvement.

Jacob Douglas: #9 JDM Properties/Estim8/TC Performance/Kartstore.nz/DP Homes Tatuus (12th, 179 points)
What did I write before the season: Douglas is completely new, but he was fifth in testing. Like Yeoroo Lee, I think there will be some races where Douglas is on it and others where he is fighting to make time. 

How wrong was it: Douglas didn't live up to the testing results and he wasn't close to teammate Billy Frazer, but Douglas did get better as the season went along. After no top ten finishes in the first eight races, he had three top five finishes and seven top ten results in the final ten races.

What should he do in 2023: Stick around U.S. F2000 because he is on track for a pretty good season in 2023. 

Jorge Garcíarce: #9 Sidral Aga/Red Cola/Skarch Tatuus (13th, 142 points)
What did I write before the season: After being 11th in the test, fringe top ten driver.

How wrong was it: Not quite fringe of the top ten, but he did get four top ten finishes in the final four races.

What should he do in 2023: Garcíarce is only 17 years old. Stay where he is at.

Simon Sikes: #19 America's Pharmacy Source/ERA/Medi-Share/Metalloid/Group6 Gear Tatuus (14th, 119 points)
What did I write before the season: Sikes has been hanging around the Road to Indy for the last two years, but he has yet to complete a full season in U.S. F2000. Considering his SCCA success, if he got a full season, I think he could contend for the championship. But he has yet to get that break and he is 21 years old. It feels like now or never for him.

How wrong was it: Sikes was not full-time but he had nine top ten finishes from the first nine races. Based on points per start, he was on pace to be seventh in the championship. 

What should he do in 2023: Race somewhere where he can be full-time and properly display his talent.

Jackson Lee: #2 IU Simon Cancer Center/Browning Chapman/Race for RP/SPRUCE Cold Brew Coffee/Caldwell Subways/Caldwell Realty Tatuus (15th, 109 points)
What did I write before the season: Lee had a few bright moments last year. Things should improve in year two, but he was 15th in testing. It will be tough to break the top ten in the championship. 

How wrong was it: Lee had three top ten finishes in the first 13 races, but crash damage ended his season after the Mid-Ohio round. His points per race was only set to get him 13th in the championship.

What should he do in 2023: It isn't good when a season ends early. In two U.S. F2000 season, results have not been spectacular. However, racing in sports cars, whether that is an LMP3 car or a GT4 or TCR machine in IMSA's Michelin Pilot Challenge series are great options.

Who should we have seen more of?
And we will likely see more of him in 2023, it is Mac Clark. The Canadian driver debuted at the Portland round and was fourth and first in the first two races. Clark leads the USF Juniors championship with only a triple-header at Circuit of the Americas this weekend remaining. Clark is 18 years old and a late bloomer of sorts, but he was second in the 2021 Formula 4 United States Championship. Clark looks ready for full-time U.S. F2000 participation. 

Also, Alex Quinn! Quinn showed up to the IMS road course round and swept the triple-header. Quinn is likely much better than U.S. F2000, at least Indy Pro 2000 if not Indy Lights would benefit from his presence. Quinn has respectable results in European junior series, but he isn't a top prospect for Formula One teams. The United States could boost his career greatly. 

Who have we seen enough of?
It is the entry level to the Road of Indy. No one has had enough time.

Looking to 2023
On the Indy Lights side, HMD Motorsports is committed to eight Indy Lights entries for the 2023 season. Not all the drivers have been announced, but with eight cars from one team, Indy Lights has to be set for its largest grid since the 2015 season. 

This was already a good Indy Lights year with at least 13 entries for 11 of 14 races. The series still has work to do and the quality could drastically improve at the bottom of the grid, but for a series that was struggling to get double figures not long ago, to have eight cars accounted for from one team, Indy Lights should be pushing 16 to 18 entries in 2023. 

The major concern is HMD Motorsports spreading itself too thin. Four cars is more than enough for any team in a series. HMD doesn't have to supply more. While it won the championship with Lundqvist, its next best driver in the championship was Frost in seventh. The six HMD drivers not named Lundqvist had a combined one top five finish in the final seven races of the season. This organization should be cautious of diminishing returns.

The big change for Indy Lights next year will be the return to Firestone tires after Cooper Tires supplied the series since the 2014 season. It is a clean slate for any returning drivers. They will all have to learn the Firestone rubber, but next Indy Lights season could be better preparation for IndyCar than recent seasons. The Firestone tires should be closely related to the IndyCar tires and that should ease the transition to IndyCar in the 2024 season. 

This should be good for IndyCar and Indy Lights because more Firestone rubber on the track should lead for better racing as the track surface should have more grip, especially on ovals. With anywhere from 12-18 Indy Lights cars potentially running at Iowa or Gateway, hopefully that provides extra rubber on the racing surface and widens the racing groove for drivers from both series.

This is the most optimistic I have felt about Indy Lights since the introduction of the current chassis in 2015. The shortened schedule with fewer doubleheaders worked keep down costs. It is tough running at fewer tracks and have long gaps in the season, but it is necessary at the moment. Indy Lights must maintain a healthy grid size, and as FIA Super License points have been a topic of discussion recently, Indy Lights should make sure it qualifies for those points and attracts drivers. The series must be an option for aspiring talent for wherever they hope to go in their racing career. The same is true for Indy Pro 2000 and U.S. F2000. These are development series after all. None of these drivers are supposed to stick around long at any one level.

Indy Pro 2000 and U.S. F2000 have had grid size dip a little in recent years, but they have remained steady. It is a concern. We really don't want to see either series shrink smaller than their current sizes. 

One thing that should be noted is the amount of American talent in the system. The top four drivers in U.S. F2000 were Americans and nine of the top 11 were Americans with a Canadian mixed in. Three of the top five and six of the top ten in Indy Pro 2000 were American drivers with a Mexican mixed in the top ten. Six of the top ten drivers in Indy Lights hold an American passport. The system is working in attracting and developing North American talent, but it is also drawing quality competitors from other continents as well who see the Road to Indy as a launchpad to a full career in motorsports. 

This was a positive year for the Road to Indy system. It is on track to continue upward in 2023.


Monday, September 12, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: System Readjustment

Will Power is a two-time IndyCar champion. Álex Palou could prove willing cures all ills. Are we sure we want Laguna Seca re-paved? A handful of other single-seater championships were claimed this weekend. It felt like everyone had a grid penalty in Monza. The stewards took their time clearing one stranded McLaren. It didn't rain in Fuji. It did rain in Kansas, and then history was made. Key contenders fell out when at the front in Greece. Championship contenders clashed in France. Supercars said goodbye to a track. One driver searching for an opportunity had the attention of the motorsports world. We will revisit IndyCar predictions next week. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

System Readjustment
Super License points have been a topic of interest over the last few weeks, most notably as Colton Herta was linked to a possible Formula One race seat with AlphaTauri for the 2023 season. 

Red Bull has interest in the American driver, and Herta was possibly going to move to Red Bull in a strange three-way swap where Pierre Gasly would move to Alpine while Herta would be released from his McLaren F1 testing contract to move to AlphaTauri after Oscar Piastri left Alpine to join McLaren. 

However, Super License points were the one thing preventing this deal from taking place. Herta only had 32 Super License points with his 2018 Indy Lights season not qualifying due to a lack of competitors in that series that year. Forty points is required to automatically qualify for a Super License. 

In IndyCar, Herta has been seventh, third and fifth in the championship before the 2022 season. That earned him four, 20 and eight points in those respective seasons. Any finish of third or better in the championship this year would have qualified Herta, but he ended tenth in the championship, and fell well short of the 40-point threshold. 

Red Bull did push to have Herta exempt from the 40-point minimum, and that is allowed in the FIA regulations. Any driver with at least 30 points is eligible to request special dispensation. 

This Super License system was established to prevent inexperienced drivers from moving into Formula One with little time in a race car, and also to prevent substandard drivers making it for Formula One due to funding. Max Verstappen joined Formula One at 17 years old and with 47 car races to his name. Verstappen had spent one year in car racing in 2014 and was on the Formula One grid in 2015. 

We have seen Verstappen develop into a fantastic talent, and he is the extreme example, but an example nonetheless of how open Formula One was before the Super License points system was established. In Herta's case, many are pointing that the system is keeping out talented drivers because of how points are distributed and how some series do not receive a truly representative points total to match the quality of that series.

IndyCar is one of two series where the champion gets 40 points. Formula Two is the other, but Formula Two awards 40 points to the top three drivers in the championship while IndyCar only awards 30 points and 20 points for the next two positions. Fourth awards 30 points in Formula Two and ten points in IndyCar. Fifth in Formula Two receives 20 points while fifth in IndyCar receives eight points. 

The way the points have been distributed encourages drivers to compete in Formula Two and Formula Three, which pays 30 points to the champion. It encourages participation in the ladder series to Formula One, but it neglects the competition and quality of grids in other series from around the world. The FIA is maintaining the power balance in its favor, but motorsports is not as cut and dry as that. 

Formula Two is a young man's series. It is meant to develop drivers and a driver is gone after four or five years tops. No one makes a career in Formula Two. The grid is always younger and relatively inexperienced. The races are also shorter, ranging from 120 kilometers for sprint races to 170 kilometers for feature races. IndyCar is full of veterans, some with over 15-20 years or more of experience, and the races are longer. The shortest IndyCar race this year was 264.68 kilometers (164.5 miles at Belle Isle). The longest race as the Indianapolis 500, 500 miles or just over 800 kilometers. 

Consistent success in Formula Two can get a driver to Formula One, but the same level of consistent success in IndyCar will not earn the same possible opportunity. A driver can be fifth in back-to-back Formula Two seasons and qualify for a Super License. In IndyCar, consecutive fifth-place championship finishes doesn't even earn a driver half the necessary Super License points.

IndyCar isn't the only series. There are plenty quality drivers in sports car racing that are not properly recognized, and the Super Formula series has been a development ground for Formula One prospects in recent years. The truth is there are more drivers qualified for Formula One than the points award. 

No one is saying these drivers will be world champions or light the world on fire in Formula One, but someone like Herta who has been in the top ten of the IndyCar championship in all four of his full seasons is good enough to at least be on the grid. 

That is the issue with the current system. It isn't properly taking into consideration experience in other series. Success is important, but it dismisses what it takes to be good in some of these series. 

Entering the 2022 season, Will Power did not have enough points to qualify for a Super License. Power started 2022 with 36 Super License points. Power had already won an IndyCar championship and he had finished in the top five of the IndyCar championship in 11 consecutive seasons before he was ninth in 2021. Power had done more enough to show he was good enough for Formula One, but the system said otherwise. 

Simon Pagenaud is another past IndyCar championship that would not have qualified at the start of the year. Pagenaud only had 39 Super License points, but in the last ten seasons he has won a championship, been runner-up twice, had six total top five championship finishes and was in the top ten in nine of those years with an 11th in 2015 being the one blemish on the Frenchman's decade in IndyCar. After finishing 15th in the IndyCar championship, Pagenaud would fall further away from Super License qualification.

The system in its current form looks at short-term success. Those 40 points must be scored in a three-year period. With the pandemic, it has been adjusted for a driver's best three seasons in the last four years, but that still ignores a significant portion of some drivers' careers. It is a flaw in the system and it can be corrected. 

What can be done? 

First, more points can be awarded. That might sound like it allows too many drivers in, but there are more than the top three in Formula Two and the IndyCar champions that should automatically qualify for a Super License. 

Second, the system needs to be adjusted just to take into consideration the regional variance in the championships. At the present moment, the Formula Regional Americas Championship pays 18 points to its champion. The Indy Lights champion only gets 15 points, but the Indy Lights car was nearly ten-seconds faster at Road America and about eight-seconds faster at Mid-Ohio. Formula Regional Americas and Indy Pro 2000 run nearly identical lap times, but Indy Pro 2000 only gets ten points for its championship. The FIA might decide what is worth more on paper, but that neglects the actual ability of the race cars and where drivers compete. Indy Lights is far from perfect, but the competition is stronger there than Formula Regional Americas.

There is also a problem with GT3 series. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters pays 15 points to its champion, but this system was designed when DTM was a touring car series and had its own bespoke race car. Now DTM is a GT3 series. Other international GT3 series only pay six points to a champion. We are also looking at a time where IMSA's top series only runs GT3 cars and GTD-Pro gets ten points for its champion and the World Endurance Championship's GT category will soon be GT3-based.

The capabilities of the car and the depth of the field need to be taken into consideration, but at the present moment DTM and IMSA GTD-Pro receive more points because of their legacies and not for what they are at the present moment. 

There are many series to take into consideration, but the Super License points system should be more uniform. There should be tiers for series with the top tier awarding more Super License points and getting more drivers automatically qualified with it decreasing down the tiers. The top tiers should also give more weight to long-term success versus a three-year period. 

It might sound crazy, but the Super License points should be a seven-tier system awarding drivers across the many champions. Consider this:

Tier 1: (Formula Two, IndyCar, FIA World Endurance Championship Hypercar, IMSA GTP)
Formula Two and IndyCar already get 40 points for its champions, but the top drivers in prototype sports car racing are more than qualified for Formula One and do not receive proper recognition. 

The Toyota Hypercar program has Formula One veterans Sébastien Bourdais, Brendon Hartley and Kamui Kobayashi. Mike Conway has won in IndyCar and had good results in GP2. Ryō Hirakawa won in Super Formula and was a Super GT GT500 champion. That also isn't noting that Formula One veterans Paul di Resta and Jean-Éric Vergne are in the Peugeot program while Loïc Duval, a World Endurance Drivers' champion as well as a Super Formula and Super GT GT500 champion, also competes for the French manufacture. 

IMSA's top prototype category also is star-studded and it will only get better with the debut of the LMDh regulations in 2023. Filipe Albuquerque is a past World Endurance Drivers' champion. He has won in sports car series all around the world. Tom Blomqvist was second in the 2014 European Formula Three championship, directly behind Esteban Ocon and directly ahead of Max Verstappen, who then moved to Formula One the next season, while Nicholas Latifi was tenth in that 2014 championship. Sébastien Bourdais ran in Formula One and won four Champ Car championships. Alex Lynn was the 2014 GP3 champion and won multiple GP2 races.

There are quality drivers everywhere and they deserved recognition 

Tier 1 does get split into "Tier 1 Single-seater" and "Tier 1 Prototype" to account for the differences in grid size and multi-driver teams in sports car racing. 

For Formula Two and IndyCar, the top five drivers all get 40 points, then 30 points for sixth, 25 for seventh, 20 for eighth, 15 for ninth and ten for tenth. 

In the prototype series, the top three teams get 40 points before going 30-30-25-20-15-10-5 through the top ten. 

The champions in these Tier 1 categories have their Super License points carry over for ten years to ensure a decade of Super License qualification for a past champions. In this season, Will Power would have been covered through 2024, and with a second championship it would be extended so Power would qualify for a Super License through the 2032 season, when he would be 51 years old.

However, there are more points to be earned. Race victories pay Super License points. If you win a race between 100-200 kilometers in length that pays two Super License points. If you win a race greater than 200 kilometers that pays five Super License points. We can also keep the one point awarded to a driver who completes a free practice on a Friday of a Formula One season. 

More drivers would qualify for Super License points and these top series would have greater equality. 

What do the other tiers look like?

Tier 2: (Formula Three, Super Formula, WEC LMP2, Formula E)
Before you scratch your head over WEC LMP2 being included, look at that grid. 

António Félix da Costa, Will Stevens, Oliver Jarvis, Robert Kubica, René Rast, Robin Frijns, Norman Nato, Esteban Gutiérrez and the likes of Lynn, Albuquerque and Bourdais also compete at that level. It is a Pro-Am category, but the professionals are stout. The regulation that silver-rated drivers only earn 75% of the Super License points total and the bronze-rated drivers only earn 50% can remain, but that class is serious. 

The points would be 30-25-20-15-12-10-8-6-4-2 with a championship at this level rolling over for five seasons. 

We will breeze through the remaining series...

Tier 3: (Formula Regional European Championship, Indy Lights, Super GT GT500, European Le Mans Series LMP2, DTM, WEC GTE-Pro, IMSA GTD-Pro
Points: 25-20-15-10-8-6-4-3-2-1

Tier 4: (NASCAR Cup, Supercars, Indy Pro 2000, Formula Regional Americas, Asian and Japanese Championships, Super Formula Lights, IMSA LMP2, ELMS GTE, WEC GTE-Am, IMSA GTD-Am, W Series, Euroformula Open, Toyota Racing Series)
Points: 15-12-10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1

Tier 5: (Formula 4 championships, U.S. F2000, NASCAR Xfinity Series, SRO GT3 Series, World Touring Car Cup, Asian Le Mans Series LMP2, GB3 Championship)
Points: 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1

Tier 6: (FIA Karting World Championship Series)
These points remain unchanged from the current system.

FIA Karting World Championships Senior: 4-3-2-1
FIA Karting Continental Championships Senior and FIA Karting World Championship Junior: 3-2-1
FIA Karting Continental Championships Junior: 2-1

Formula One is the pinnacle of motorsports and the best drivers in the world should be competing in that championship, but at the present moment the Super License system exclude more top drivers than it includes. The FIA can make a better and more open system to all competitors. 

There is no clear pecking order for series. The 20 drivers in Formula One are not the top 20 drivers in the world. They wouldn't finish first through 20th if put head-to-head against the entire IndyCar grid. Romain Grosjean, as past GP2 champion and ten-time podium finisher in Formula One was 13th in the IndyCar championship this year. He led three laps. Christian Lundgaard was seventh in the 2020 Formula Two championship, earning him eight Super License points. Lundgaard was 14th in IndyCar this year, earning himself zero Super License points. 

The drivers in IndyCar are showing they can compete with the top drivers from Europe. Europe should open up its doors to these drivers as well as drivers from other series around the globe. 

Not all of these drivers will get an opportunity on a Formula One grid, even the ones that do will not necessarily succeed, but they at least deserve the opportunity. If they fail, they fail, but these drivers aren't even given the chance to do that. 

Champion From the Weekend
You know about Will Power, but did you know...

Linus Lundqvist clinched the Indy Lights championship simply starting the first race of the weekend at Laguna Seca. 

Felipe Drugovich clinched the Formula Two championship after Théo Pourchaire failed to score a point in the first race of the weekend from Monza.

Victor Martins clinched the Formula Three championship with finishes of tenth and fourth at Monza.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Italian Grand Prix, his 11th victory of the season.

Jüri Vips and Jehan Daruvala split the Formula Two races from Monza. Franco Colapinto and Zane Maloney split the Formula Three races.

Bubba Wallace won the NASCAR Cup race from Kansas, his second career victory. Noah Gragson won the rain-shortened Grand National Series race, his fifth victory of the season. John Hunter Nemecheck won the Truck race, his second victory of the season. 

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Brendon Hartley and Ryō Hirakawa won the 6 Hours of Fuji. The #31 WRT Oreca-Gibson of Robin Frijns, Sean Gelael and Dries Vanthoor won in LMP2. The #51 AF Corse Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi won in GTE-Pro. The #33 TF Sport Aston Martin of Ben Keating, Marco Sørensen and Henrique Chaves won in GTE-AM.

Dennis Olsen and Nick Cassidy split the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from Spa-Francorchamps.

Will Davison (race one) and Shane van Gisbergen (race two and race three) Supercars races at Pukekohe Park Raceway.

Álvaro Bautista (race one) and Toprak Razgatlioglu (SuperPole race and race two) split the World Superbike races at Magny-Cours. Lorenzo Baldassarri and Dominique Aegerter split the World Supersport races. 

Thierry Neuville won the Acropolis Rally.

Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP will run at Aragón. 
NASCAR has its night race at Bristol. 
Super GT has a race at Sportsland SUGO.
The GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup concludes its 2022 season in Valencia.


Sunday, September 11, 2022

First Impressions: Laguna Seca 2022

1. Nobody had a season quite like Alex Palou. Palou looked ready to pick up where he left off in 2021 and looked poised for a successful title defense. He was leading the championship after Barber Motorsports Park, and was regularly at the front.

But the season took a turn during the month of May. We know about the legal dispute between Palou and Chip Ganassi Racing over his future. With McLaren dangling a Formula One opportunity in front of the Spaniard, Palou was enticed to switch, even though Ganassi exercised its option to retain him for the 2023 season.

From there, it has been nothing but a mess away from the track. Ganassi sued Palou. McLaren really hasn't fought for Palou. Palou became a pariah, but he continued to score respectable results. We were ready for Ganassi to drop Palou at any moment.

Despite the conflict, both sides have been professional. Ganassi kept him in the seat and Palou kept up the results. Palou has continued to show his speed and that he is one of the top drivers in IndyCar. The results were slightly down from last year. It is hard to repeat as champion. Race victory eluded him as well. But in the final race, a place Palou had a wonderful drive last year to strengthen his championship grip, he was free to go all-out and chase the trophy.

Chip Ganassi likes winners. He has a reason to like Palou tonight. Tomorrow? We will get to that later.

2. It is harsh to say the championship was decided in qualifying, but Josef Newgarden's spin in the Corkscrew did not set him up for championship success. Newgarden had to complete the drive of his life on a four-stop strategy. It got him into the conversation, but it wasn't enough today. It got Newgarden second, but it leaves him 16 points shy of a championship.

There is a world where Newgarden doesn't cause a red flag in qualifying, makes the Fast Six and this result is replicated. Newgarden couldn't control the race today, but damn did he give it his all.

The championship wasn't lost today. Five victories and no championship is hard to swallow. There were a few results that went against him. The accident in the second Iowa race will stand out. Those were 44 points lost, but there were plenty of races where Newgarden was just off. This was his first podium finish of the season that wasn't a victory. He was outside the top ten in four of the first six races. There were a lot of points left on the table in those races.

Still, Newgarden showed he is a world class talent. This wasn't his year, but no one can rule him out for the foreseeable future.

3. To the champion, Will Power! Third was always going to be enough today. He started on pole position and had a comfortable margin over the other championship contenders when the green flag waved. He did what he had to do today and all season. He scored the bonus points and added pressure to those who already had a mountain to climb.

Power did that all season. He opened with five consecutive top five finishes, the first time he ever opened with that many top five results. This was his ninth podium finish, tying his most in a season. He had 12 top fives finishes. He only had one victory, the fewest for a champion since Tony Stewart in 1997, but Power drove a near flawless season. He completed every lap. He didn't make any mistakes. He had nothing bite him at the most inopportune time.

The second championship comes eight years after the first for Power. It wasn't because Power forgot how to drive. He won plenty of races and plenty of pole positions, but a trend developed where he was the driver to have a gearbox failure or broken driveshaft while running at the front, sometimes when he was in the lead. Those incidents kept him from contending for more championships during the previous seven seasons.

This year, none of those problems caught Power out. He didn't cough up 60 to 80 points because of mechanical issues. Avoiding the issues helps secure a championship.

This was fitting. Power is fifth all-time in victories and leads all-time in pole positions. One championship wasn't going to feel fitting for Power's career. A second is a sigh of relief. The record book is now a more accurate representation of the last 15 years in IndyCar racing.

4. Felix Rosenqvist showed he belongs in IndyCar this season. Rosenqvist needed results and he got them. He ended with fourth in the season finale and eighth in the championship. Arrow McLaren SP has a difficult decision with its drivers, and the team isn't expanding to four cars. It sounds like it cannot hide Rosenqvist in Formula E either. If it isn't AMSP, it can be somewhere else, and Rosenqvist might have just made himself the most coveted free agent.

5. Christian Lundgaard had a massive drive to finish fifth today and lock up Rookie of the Year honors. Lundgaard did it on three stops. Rookie of the Year was a tight fight to the wire, but it never felt like one stood above the others. Lundgaard winning it feels justified. He had plenty of good days and if Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing can find qualifying speed, Lundgaard could become a race winner.

6. Scott McLaughlin was a four-stopper and his late charge got him sixth. This was a great season for Team Penske, and McLaughlin was clearly the most improved driver this season. He got fourth in the championship as a sophomore. Penske keeps finding wonderful talents. We are blessed to have McLaughlin in IndyCar. Expect more of the same in 2023.

7. Romain Grosjean was seventh and it is a consolation prize for what was a disappointing season. No victories for Grosjean and he led only three laps all season. For Andretti Autosport, this was far from a respectable season. It won a few races but its best driver in the championship was ninth. Take today. It had two cars start in the top four and never showed it could compete for the race victory today with the best finisher being seventh. This was a good day, but there is much work to do heading into 2023.

8. Patricio O'Ward ends the season with a quiet day in eighth. This kind of defined O'Ward season. He was always in the top ten, but a few days he was just in the background. O'Ward had plenty of bad days and they canceled out the strong runs. The problem is the strong runs were not dominant runs. His two victories came through circumstances. He put himself in that position but there really weren't any days O'Ward showed he was the man to beat from the start. I expect that will change.

9. Marcus Ericsson had an off-track excursion drop him out of a potential top five finish late and he finished in ninth. Ericsson led the championship for a good portion of the season, but we never saw championship-level speed on a consistent basis. The double points in the Indianapolis 500 flattered his season. It was still a good year and sixth in the championship is a fair representation, but he has work to do to really challenge for the Astor Cup.

10. Alexander Rossi's time with Andretti Autosport ended with a tenth place finish. The team got the strategy wrong, starting on used alternate tires before switching to new alternate tires. I don't think Andretti Autosport has the top people to compete for the IndyCar championship. The best people weren't around Rossi this year. Too many times did it seem Rossi was treading water at some point in the race and it led to him losing positions. The switch to Arrow McLaren SP will be good for Rossi. As for Andretti? It has a lot on its plate and the stomach for only half of it.

11. Speaking of what is on Andretti Autosport's plate, Colton Herta was 11th and he likely will not get an exemption for a Super License, keeping him in IndyCar for 2023. Herta did the best he could starting 18th today. He made up good ground, but he just didn't have it today. Herta is now the de facto leader of an IndyCar team at 22 years old. That is not where he should be. He is better than Andretti Autosport at the moment. I doubt the team will rise to Herta's level.

12. Scott Dixon had his second bad day of the season, and it was 12th in the season finale. It just didn't work out for Dixon. The magical finale and pulling out a championship wasn't meant to be. This wasn't Dixon's best season, but there is a world where Dixon can pull out a title with two victories and 16 top ten finishes from 17 races. That 16th top ten finish didn't happen. It was still a good year, a Dixon-esque year, and for the second time in three seasons, he completed every lap in a season. It is a consolation prize, but it is another piece of history Dixon has that no one else can claim.

13. David Malukas missed out on Rookie of the Year, but it was a strong year. Most rookies would take the season Malukas had if you offered it in February. The future is bright for him and staying with Dale Coyne Racing is a good move for him.

14. Rinus VeeKay was 14th, and it was another ho-hum result for him and Ed Carpenter Racing. Ed Carpenter Racing shows great speed every four races. The problem is ECR isn't even average in the other three races. The team must become more consistent.

15. Devlin DeFrancesco rounded out the top 15, his best finish on a road/street course, and this means his best three results in 2022 came in the final three races of the season. Is DeFrancesco taking steps forward? I think so. Does he still have a long way to go? Definitely.

16. Jimmie Johnson somehow finished 16th and that was after spinning Dalton Kellett early in the race. This feels like the maximum we can expect from Johnson in an IndyCar on a road/street course. Is this enough for him to come back as a full-time driver in 2023? Johnson said he has options for next year. Is this fun enough for him to return? We will find out.

17. Let's round out the field. Simon Pagenaud was 17th and Helio Castroneves was 19th after both cars made the second round in qualifying. Meyer Shank Racing took a step back this year with a more senior lineup. Sandwiched between the MSR cars was Graham Rahal, a disappointing end to his season. Jack Harvey was 20th, which is fitting for his season.

18. Kyle Kirkwood was 21st and probably cannot wait to join Andretti Autosport. It might not be spectacular but it will be lightyears better than A.J. Foyt Racing. Simona de Silvestro ended up 22nd, which is a good day for a part-time team with a driver who only returned to single-seater racing on road courses this year for the first time since 2015.

19. Takuma Sato and Conor Daly were 23rd and 24th. I am not sure two drivers had more anonymous seasons and finished with more anonymous results than these two drivers. Dalton Kellett was spun but his day was likely never going to be much better than 25th even without the contact from Johnson.

20. Callum Ilott lost an engine just before the halfway point in this race, and this result nor his actual championship finish will show how good he was this season. He was as good as Lundgaard and Malukas this year, but he drove for the smallest team of the three, the newest team of the three and Ilott missed a race after breaking his wrist in the Indianapolis 500. With Juncos Hollinger Racing planning to expand to two cars next year, Ilott is primed for a breakout sophomore season.

21. IndyCar had a great season. Five drivers were alive for the championship into the finale. There were nine different winners. There were great races on every track discipline.

We saw Scott Dixon surpass Mario Andretti for second all-time in victories, and Will Power surpassed Andretti for the all-time lead in pole positions. It was a historic season and another reminder to appreciate this time because we are seeing some of the best drivers in series history compete.

And yet, this feels like it should be a bigger deal. In the wake of Formula One's boom in the United States, plenty in IndyCar are voicing displeasure that it has been overtaken in its home country by the series that has no American drivers, doesn't have a competitive American team and only races here twice a year with most of the other races starting in the morning Eastern Time.

The status quo isn't good enough anymore from IndyCar. It keeps hoping to catch a shooting star with a $5 idea, becoming popular on the cheap, and that strategy just isn't going to pay off. We have an American that is annually in the championship discussion and two of the best drivers to ever race in IndyCar right competing along with plenty of other exciting drivers, some of which could be around for the next 20 years, and no one outside the IndyCar bubble has a damn clue they exist.

A driver named WILL POWER has won his second championship and the average sports fan doesn't even know he exists. Power should at least be a fun joke amongst people. IndyCar has had him for all of reunification and it has failed to promote the most marketing friendly name possibly in all of human life let alone sports. That is pathetic.

Will anything change? Will IndyCar actually take the bat off its shoulder and swing? There is a growing rumble that soon cannot be ignored from within its own clientele. Knowing IndyCar, it likely has already missed its chance.

22. We get a break. We all wish there was another race or two, but the season is the ideal length. Not too short, but not too long. There is plenty of time to look back, and over the next few weeks, that is what we will do.



Morning Warm-Up: Laguna Seca 2022

Will Power is the new all-time leader in IndyCar pole positions after a lap of 71.6127 seconds around Laguna Seca on Saturday earned him the top spot on the grid for the 2022 season finale. Power's 68th pole position is his first at Laguna Seca, the 26th different track Power has earned the top grid position. Power enters the weekend with 18 victories from pole position, tied with Sébastien Bourdais for third most all-time. Mario Andretti holds that record with 24 victories from pole position and A.J. Foyt is second with 23. Regardless of whether or not Will Power wins the championship, he is guaranteed a top five championship finish. It will be his 12th top five championship finish in the last 13 seasons. He currently has eight podium finishes. His most in as season was nine in the 2010 and 2011 seasons. 

Callum Ilott will end his rookie season with his best starting position of the season, second after Ilott fell 0.0193 seconds shy of Power's top time. Ilott is the 26th different driver to start second next to Power on a front row. Ilott has an average finish of 13.714 over the last seven races. Ilott had an average finish of 19.75 in his first eight starts of the season. The last time a first-time winner occurred in a season finale was Ed Carpenter at Kentucky in 2011.

Alexander Rossi will lead an all-Andretti Autosport row two. Rossi was 0.1571 seconds off Power's time. This will be Alexander Rossi's 114th start with Andretti Autosport. He has eight victories, 28 poidum finishes, 40 top five finishes and 68 top ten finishes with the team. Rossi started his Andretti Autosport career starting 18th for the 2016 St. Petersburg race. The only time Rossi has won from third starting position was at Pocono in 2018. Six of Rossi's eight career victories have come from the front row. The two that didn't come from the front row were his victory in the Indianapolis 500, where he started 11th, and that 500-mile Pocono race.

Romain Grosjean joins Rossi on row two, and 0.1731 seconds covered the top four qualifiers in the Fast Six. This was only the fourth time Grosjean has made the Fast Six this season and it was the first time he made it on road course. His three previous appearances were on street courses. Grosjean was the top Andretti Autosport finisher in four of the first 16 races, but he has not been the top Andretti finisher since the second race of the Iowa doubleheader. 

Patricio O'Ward moves up to fifth on the grid after Álex Palou changed his engine after qualifying, leading to a six-spot grid penalty for Palou. O'Ward is aiming for his third consecutive top five finishes. He has not had three consecutive top five finishes since last season between the Indianapolis 500 and the Belle Isle doubleheader. The only other time he had three consecutive top five finishes was between the final two races of 2020 and the 2021 season opener. 

David Malukas inherits sixth position, but Malukas missed out on the final round of qualifying by 0.0080 seconds. This is the seventh time the rookie has started in the top ten this season and his third top ten start in the last four races.  Malukas was fourth and second in the Indy Lights races held last year at Laguna Seca. 

Scott McLaughlin missed out on the final round of qualifying by 0.0701 seconds and McLaughlin will start seventh. He enters Laguna Seca with five consecutive top five finishes and three consecutive podium finishes. The only other driver with three consecutive podium finishes this seaosn was Will Power between the Iowa doubleheader and the July Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race. No driver has four consecutive podium finishes this season. 

Felix Rosenqvist takes eighth on the grid for the season finale. It is Rosenqvist's 12th top ten starting position of the season. With this qualifying result, Rosenqvist has the sixth best average starting position this season, but he has only the 11th best average finishing position. He has finished better than his starting position in eight races, but four of those are the four races he started outside the top ten, three of which were starts outside the top twenty. 

Marcus Ericsson caused a local yellow for a spin in the Corkscrew during the second round of qualifying, but he will start ninth after his teammate Palou's penalty. Ericsson is 40 points behind Power after Power's pole position. Ericsson has won two championships in his car racing career. The first was the 2007 Formula BMW UK championship. His second championship was the 2009 Japanese Formula Three Championship.  Ericsson has not won on a natural-terrain road course since the GP2 feature race at the Nürburgring on July 6, 2013.

Simon Pagenaud takes tenth on the grid, his best starting position since he was sixth at Mid-Ohio. Pagenaud has been running at the finish of 15 of 16 races this season. He has not had multiple retirements in one season since 2015 when he had two. The only other season where he had multiple retirements was 2013, when he had two. Pagenaud has 186 finishes in 198 starts, a finishing percentage of 93.939% and he has finished on the lead lap in 161 of his first 198 starts, a rate of 81.313%.

Álex Palou takes 11th on the grid after serving the penalty for the engine change. Palou was about to start in the top five for the ninth time this season. Palou was 0.5498 seconds off Power's pole position time. The Spaniard could become the first defending champion to go winless since Scott Dixon in 2004. The most recent driver to score a first victory of the season in the season finale was Tony Kanaan at Fontana in 2014.

Hélio Castroneves made the second round of qualifying for the second time this season and Castroneves rounds out the top twelve. Castroneves won at Laguna Seca in 2020 in IMSA competition with co-driver Ricky Taylor. He also won the 2000 CART race at Laguna Seca. It is Team Penske's most recent Laguna Seca victory in IndyCar. 

Scott Dixon missed out on the second round of qualifying by 0.0863 seconds and Dixon will start 13th. Dixon has finished third in the season finale the last three years, and he has finished on the podium in the last four season finales. He has 13 podium finishes in the last 16 season finales. He has three top ten finishes in four Laguna Seca starts. Last year was the first time Dixon finished outside the top ten at the track when he wound up 13th after contact with Takuma Sato when Sato spun in the corkscrew. Dixon won the 2000 Indy Lights race at Laguna Seca on his way to winning the championship that season. Dixon has started 13th nine times in his IndyCar career before this race. His best finish from 13th starting position is fourth.

Rinus VeeKay was 0.0452 seconds short of advancing from group two and VeeKay will start 14th. The Dutchman swept the Indy Lights races at Laguna Seca in 2019. The only drivers to have won at Laguna Seca in IndyCar and Indy Lights are Bryan Herta and Cristiano da Matta. Jimmy Vasser and Patrick Carpentier won at Laguna Seca in IndyCar and the Atlantics Championship. 

Conor Daly finds himself 15th on the grid. Daly has finished off the lead lap in five of the last six races. He opened the season with ten consecutive lead lap finishes. This will be Daly's 97th career start this weekend. The only drivers with more starts before a first career victory are Michel Jourdain, Jr. at 129 starts, George Snider at 126 starts and Daly's car owner Ed Carpenter at 113 starts. 

Christian Lundgaard is the top Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing starter in 16th. This is the fifth time RLLR did not have a top fifteen starter in a race this season. Lundgaard has finished outside the top fifteen in the last two races. His only other time finishing outside the top fifteen in consecutive races was 19th and 18th at Texas and Long Beach earlier this season.

Kyle Kirkwood will start 17th for the final race of the season. This is the eighth consecutive race Kirkwood has qualified outside the top ten. He won three of his four Road to Indy starts at Laguna Seca, which included a sweep of the Indy Lights races last year. Kirkwood was 13th last week at Portland, only his third top fifteen finish this season.

Colton Herta is looking for his second consecutive victory in the season finale and third finale victory in four years, but it will have to come from 18th starting position. Herta would be the first driver to win consecutive season finales since Simon Pagenaud in 2016 and 2017. American drivers have won the last four season finales.  

Graham Rahal ended up in 19th starting position. This is the tenth time Rahal has qualified outside the top fifteen this season. He has finished outside the top ten in nine of 16 season finales. He was runner-up in the 2016 season finale at Sonoma. His only other top five finish in a season finale was in his rookie season when Rahal was fourth at Mexico City in 2007. 

Devlin DeFrancesco qualified 20th. DeFrancesco is coming off his best career finish on a road/street course after finishing 16th at Portland. Combined with his 12th at Gateway, DeFrancesco's best two finishes have occurred in the last two races.

Jack Harvey starts directly behind his Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammate Rahal in 21st position. Harvey has finished outside the top fifteen in four of the last five season finales. He was seventh last year in the Long Beach season finale. Harvey was 19th and 15th in his first two Laguna Seca starts.

Former Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver Takuma Sato takes the outside of row 11. Sato's average starting position for the 2022 season will be 14.706, his third worst in 13 IndyCar season. Only 2012 and 2021 had worse averages. Sato has never finished in the top five of a season finale. He has five top ten finishes in 12 season finales. 

Jimmie Johnson will start 23rd for the second consecutive race and for the third time in the final five races. Johnson has retired due to an accident in three of the last four road/street course races. He had a spun during the first practice on Friday in turn six. 

Dalton Kellett joins Johnson on row 12. This is the 15th time this season Kellett will start outside the top twenty. He has finished outside the top twenty in ten of 11 road/street course races this season. His best road/street course result was 20th at Belle Isle. 

After causing a red flag in qualifying for an accident in the Corkscrew, Josef Newgarden will start 25th for the Laguna Seca season finale. This is Newgarden's worst starting position since he started 25th for the 2016 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The worst starting position for a Laguna Seca winner is 25th with Max Papis in 2001. However, 22 of 24 Laguna Seca races have been won from a top-three starting position. Newgarden entered this weekend second in the championship. He could become the first driver with three consecutive runner-up finishes in the championship since Will Power did it from 2010 to 2012.

Simona de Silvestro rounds out the grid in 26th position. De Silvestro competed at Laguna Seca in the Atlantics Championship. She was tenth in both races, first in 2008 and then in 2009. She was leading the championship entering the 2009 Laguna Seca race, which served as the season finale. Contact in the Corkscrew took de Silvestro out of the race, and she lost the championship to current Team RLL BMW driver John Edwards, and past Team RLL BMW driver Jonathan Summerton took second in the championship ahead of de Silvestro. 

NBC's coverage of the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey begins at 3:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 95 laps.