Wednesday, November 8, 2017

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Team Penske's 2017 Season

We have reached the final IndyCar team review and of course it is the championship-winning Team Penske. Josef Newgarden's debut season with the team saw him take the championship, beating three experienced teammates who combined for 67 victories entering this season. That didn't scare the American. He didn't need a year to adjust. He jumped right in and led the pack.

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!
Josef Newgarden
The long awaited Penske debut for Newgarden was a solid run at St. Petersburg. Despite being caught out by the debris caution, Newgarden ran in the top ten all race and finished eighth. Thanks to the slew of Honda cars breaking down, Newgarden was able to jump into podium contention at Long Beach and he finished third, the top Penske in the field. He put himself in the right position at Barber despite being the slowest Penske driver in qualifying. He was running second when Will Power had to pit for a deflating tire and Newgarden held off Scott Dixon to get his first victory with the team. He had a good run at Phoenix but twice brushed the wall, had to make extra pit stops and he had to settle for a ninth place finish.

A pair of pit lane speeding penalties killed a promising day in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he finished 11th. Newgarden had an accident during practice for the Indianapolis 500 and he never really showed the pace it would take to win from that point on. He started 22nd and was middle of the field all race before his race ended in a turn two accident. He got back on the right path at Belle Isle. A three-stop strategy and a bunch of fast laps got him a fourth place finish in race one. Race two saw him use the three-stop strategy again and it got him a second place finish. Newgarden might have been able to give Will Power a run for his money at Texas but an ambitious move in turn four saw him slide into the wall exiting turn four and end his race.

His summer started with a good run at Road America. He was the best Penske all race but Scott Dixon made his move to take the lead on a restart and ran away with it, leaving Newgarden to settle with another second place finish. Newgarden didn't have the oval pace from Texas carry over to Iowa. He finished sixth but was never a factor for the victory. Newgarden was on pit road right as Tony Kanaan buried himself in the turn one tires at Toronto. It gave him the lead and he never looked back as he led 58 laps on his way to victory. While he started second at Mid-Ohio, he quickly found himself in the lead and was never really challenged by Power even after a restart with 20 laps to go. His third victory of the season gave him the championship lead for the first time in his career.

Newgarden started 14th at Pocono but he found himself in the battle for the victory at the end of the race and as much as he tried to find a way around Power all he could do was settle for another runner-up finish. The championship tightened up heading to Gateway. Power and Newgarden shared the front row again but Newgarden took the lead on the outside early and Power spun before getting through turn two on the first green flag lap. Newgarden traded the lead with teammates Hélio Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud and in the closing stages Newgarden was second to Pagenaud. It appeared he would settle in and take the points but he made one gutsy move entering turn one and made it stick. He was gone and a fourth victory was in the bag.

He qualified third for Watkins Glen and it appeared he would extend the championship lead. He dropped back a few positions but a top ten was never in doubt until a race off the pit lane with Power. Newgarden lost a position to his teammate but on cold tires he slid into the pit lane wall, damaging his car and causing Sébastien Bourdais to have nowhere to go but into the back of the American. Newgarden finished the race but two laps down in 18th. With his championship lead down to three points over Scott Dixon entering Sonoma, Newgarden did not snap under pressure. He won his first pole position of the season and led the first 17 laps in the race. Newgarden led 41 laps and never put a wheel wrong. When Pagenaud took the lead, though he gave it one look into turn seven, Newgarden settled for second. It was all he needed as he won his first championship in his first season with Team Penske.

Josef Newgarden's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 1st (642 points)
Wins: 4
Podiums: 9
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 390
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 7.941
Average Finish: 6.058

A historic season was not enough for Pagenaud to retain the title
Simon Pagenaud
The Frenchman's title defense saw him start with an uphill battle after he failed to make it out of round one in qualifying and he started 14th. The timely yellow saw Pagenaud inherit the lead as the front runners had to make pit stops but soon Sébastien Bourdais passed him and Bourdais was gone, leaving Pagenaud to settle for second. Race two saw a blocking penalty in qualifying force Pagenaud to start dead last at Long Beach. He ran hard all race and it got him a fifth place finish. He finally had a good starting position at Barber but he could do no better than his starting position with a third place finish. Phoenix saw Pagenaud pick up his first oval victory with the Frenchman leading 116 laps, most of the race, and he led the final 114 laps in a comfortable victory.

He ran in the top five all race in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he finished fourth but he never really had it in the Indianapolis 500. He started 23rd, lowest of the five Penske entries and he never had the pace to get to the front. He completed all 200 laps but finished 14th. Pagenaud had another off day in the first Belle Isle race with a 16th-place finish but he improved in race two finishing fifth. By being one of the few survivors at Texas, Pagenaud found himself on the podium again with a third place finish. He started and finished fourth in a quiet day at Road America.

Pagenaud was bottom of the four Penske drivers at Iowa but still ran to a respectable seventh place finish. He didn't make the most of his pole position at Toronto and was then shuffled back after the Tony Kanaan caution but he ran hard and got up to fifth. He had another top five run at Mid-Ohio with a fourth place finish but was well off his teammates Newgarden and Power, who finish first and second respectively.

He started on the outside of row one at Pocono but didn't lead a lap. He had a good car and quietly finished fourth. Gateway appeared it would be his second victory of the season. Pagenaud led after the final round of pit stops but Newgarden's audacious move in turn one took a victory from the Frenchman and even worse dropped him to third. The changing weather conditions at Watkins Glen made for a rough day for Pagenaud. It was bad enough he had to start 12th and he could do no better than ninth. Pagenaud had a shot at the title at Sonoma but he needed Newgarden to falter. The team decided to go to a four-stop strategy and it worked. He was fast and held off Newgarden to win the race and Pagenaud completed every lap run in the 2017 season, only the second driver to accomplish that feat, but he fell short in the championship.

Simon Pagenaud's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 2nd (629 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 15
Laps Led: 187
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 8.647
Average Finish: 5.294

Castroneves got a win, but not a championship
Hélio Castroneves
Like fellow Brazilian Tony Kanaan, 2017 marked the 20th season of IndyCar competition for Castroneves and like typical Hélio Castroneves he finished sixth at St. Petersburg but this came after he started 16th on the grid. He picked up his first pole position of the season at Long Beach but he was quickly shuffled back. A pit lane speeding penalty was another set back but he was able to get a ninth place finish out of that day. He started second at Barber but never played into the fight for the victory and he finished fourth. He got another pole position at Phoenix and he led the first 73 laps but during the first round of pit stops he was shuffled back and never factored into the race for the victory after that and he settled for fourth.

In the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Castroneves did lead for a while after a round of pit stops but he went two laps too long on the next stint and lost the lead to his teammate Will Power. Then he got dropped a few more positions with the likes of Scott Dixon, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Simon Pagenaud overtaking the Brazilian and he had to settle with a fifth place finish. Castroneves qualified a career-worst 19th for the Indianapolis 500. He had to drive under the somersaulting car of Scott Dixon at one point. Another blow during the race was he was handed a penalty for jumping a restart, a near impossible penalty to earn in IndyCar. However, through sheer Penske strategy and a pair of cautions, Castroneves found himself in the top five and was in contention for his fourth Indianapolis 500 victory. He fought with Takuma Sato, Ed Jones and Max Chilton. He was leading with seven laps to go but Sato would take the lead and hold on. Castroneves picked up his third runner-up finish in the Indianapolis 500 to go with his three Indianapolis 500 victories.

Castroneves started second in race one from Belle Isle after thinking he won pole position but lost it because he ignored a local yellow in his qualifying group. Mistimed pit strategy cost him a podium, dropping him to seventh in the final results. He started fourth in race two but dropped outside the top ten. A late move got him up to ninth. He suffered a tire failure exiting turn two at Texas and that end his night after 90 laps.

He scored another pole position at Road America but lost the lead after the first stint to Josef Newgarden and was shuffled back to third. He finally got off the snide at Iowa. He started third and led 217 of 300 laps but he had to chase down J.R. Hildebrand as they navigated slower traffic late in the race. Once he got by, the victory was never in doubt. Castroneves made a bold move at the start of the Toronto race, going from third to first in the first turn of the race. His chance of consecutive victory evaporated when the caution came out for Tony Kanaan ending up in the tires. All Castroneves could manage out of it was an eighth place finish. He followed that up with a seventh place finish at Mid-Ohio.

At Pocono, he started 20th but worked his way into the top ten and settled for another seventh place finish. It appeared a second victory would be in his cards at Gateway but he stalled on his penultimate pit stop, the lead was gone and he finished fourth The drying conditions in the opening laps at Watkins Glen had Castroneves in the lead on lap two after Alexander Rossi had a bobble. However, the American ran Castroneves down. He was eventually dropped to fourth. He was the worst of the four Penske drivers at Sonoma where he finished fifth.

Hélio Castroneves' 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 4th (598 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 16
Laps Led: 442
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 7
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 6.0
Average Finish: 6.176

The good days couldn't counterbalance the bad ones in 2017 for Will Power
Will Power
His season started like many do: On pole position for the season opener at St. Petersburg. James Hinchcliffe jumped him early but Power remained at the front. He had to make an early pit stop but at the second caution Power was in the top ten and by the end of the second stint he was back up to third. However, in the closing laps his engine started to go and he had to retire. At Long Beach, contact with Charlie Kimball put him behind the eight ball early and he finished a lap down in 13th. Power was leading late at Barber and he appeared in position to win until a deflating tire forced him to pit with 14 laps to go and it ironically dropped him to a 14th-place finish. He finally got a good result at Phoenix. He started second, led 59 laps and finished second to Simon Pagenaud.

He followed up his runner-up performance with a dominating victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis as he led 61 of 85 laps from pole position. Power was the top Penske qualifier for the Indianapolis 500 and the only one of the team's five cars to make the Fast Nine. He started ninth but he was second by the end of lap one. Power did fall back after that and was never really a contender only to be caught up in an accident in turn two late in the race and he finished 23rd. Race one from Belle Isle did not go well as he started 11th and proceeded to fall back and finish 18th. A blown lap in qualifying forced him to start seventh in race two but he recovered and finished third. At Texas, Power started ninth but quickly found himself in the lead and he never got off the bottom on the racetrack. He led 180 of 248 laps on his way to his second victory of the season.

A poor start at Road America was the start to a hectic day for Power. Twice he had to give up positions for blocking and he even made contact with James Hinchcliffe. He was able to finish fifth. Power started from pole position at Iowa but he could not compete with his teammate Hélio Castroneves and J.R. Hildebrand. He ran in the top five all race and he finished fourth. Toronto saw his race end in turn three after contact with Scott Dixon broke his suspension. He won pole position at Mid-Ohio but after 12 laps he was dropped from the lead by Josef Newgarden who never looked back. Power finished in second comfortably.

Another late season charge appeared to be on for Power. He followed up his second at Mid-Ohio with another stellar drive at Pocono. This time he had to overcome a broken front wing and unscheduled pit stops. A stint of rapid laps allowed him to make his final stop off sequence and get out ahead of the field. He held off Newgarden and Alexander Rossi for the victory. Then came Gateway and that hot streak ended when he spun in turn two on the first lap of green flag racing. He nearly cost his teammate Newgarden the championship at Watkins Glen but at least Power finished sixth. He closed the season by wrapping up a Penske 1-2-3 at Sonoma.

Will Power's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 5th (562 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 10
Laps Led: 443
Poles: 6
Fast Sixes: 7
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 4.35
Average Finish: 9.176

Last year, I compared Team Penske's 1994 season to the 2016 season and the same has to be done after this season. The common thing from these three seasons was not only did Penske dominate and win the championship but also each driver got a share of the fun. All four drivers won this year for Penske and the team combined for ten victories from 17 races, one fewer than 1994 but one more than 2016, and the team won five consecutive races during the season, the longest winning streak for the team since it won seven consecutive races in 1994.

The team did not sweep the top three positions like it did in 1994 and 2016 but it took first, second, fourth and fifth in the championship. The team swept the podium on only one occasion, the season finale at Sonoma, more than 2016 but four fewer than the 1994 team. Overall the four drivers combined for 25 podium finishes, four less than 1994 but three more than 2016. Penske had at least one driver on the podium in 15 of the 17 races, the same total as 1994 but the 1994 season had 16 races and last year's team had at least one driver on the podium in 14 race but there was one fewer race last year. This year's bunch equaled the number of pole positions won by last year's team at 11, which is one more than the 1994 team.

The 2017 team was impressive when it came to leading laps with Team Penske sweeping the top four in the laps led column. Team Penske led a total of 1,462 of 2,331 laps (62.719%) in 2017 and it dwarfs the number put up by the 2016 team, which led 811 of 2,070 laps (39.178%). However, the 1994 team was impressive with the trio of Al Unser, Jr., Emerson Fittipaldi and Paul Tracy not only sweeping the top three in most laps led that season but the team combining for 1,584 laps led out of 2,083 laps (76.04%).

We can spin the numbers and look into the difference of eras and how IndyCar has changed and debate if the 2017 numbers are more impressive or vice versa but the one thing 1994 will always have over the 2016 and 2017 seasons is Team Penske won the Indianapolis 500 in 1994 with Al Unser, Jr. I am not that type of guy who weighs the Indianapolis 500 above everything else, the season has to be taken serious and the performance over the course of more than a dozen races means more than just one day in May, but when looking at how dominant these three seasons were, the Indianapolis 500 victory becomes the cherry on top that is missing from the last two seasons.

Team Penske moves on to 2018 with three drivers, three champions and all three looking for their first Indianapolis 500 victory. The team has not won three consecutive championships since 1981-1983 and while the introduction of the universal aero kit should level the playing field, Team Penske is Team Penske and it will be one step ahead of the competition.



Tuesday, November 7, 2017

How Would Stage Points Have Altered the 2017 IndyCar Championship?

There has been a month and a half since the IndyCar season ended and it has given us some time to look back and pick a part what occurred from March to September. Back in August, between Mid-Ohio and Pocono, I took a look at what IndyCar would look like had the series used stage points.

Back in August, with the mythological stage points, Hélio Castroneves would have been the championship leader, not Josef Newgarden as the Brazilian would have scored 144 stage points through Mid-Ohio, more than any other driver, while Newgarden would have had the fourth most stage points with 117 points. Team Penske had the top four positions swept, as Will Power would have had 132 points and Simon Pagenaud would have 123 points.

How would the championship have changed if stage points had been around and awarded in the final four races? In case you are wondering, I used the quarter-post and halfway points to award stage points for these four races, so at Pocono would be lap 50 and lap 100, Gateway lap 62 and lap 124, Watkins Glen lap 15 and lap 30 and Sonoma lap 21 and lap 42.

Here is how the mythical stage points after Sonoma would have looked:

Drivers Stage Points
Castroneves 181
Newgarden 159
Pagenaud 154
Dixon 148
Power 143
Rossi 136
Rahal 120
Hinchcliffe 96
Hunter-Reay 95
Sato 62
Kanaan 58
Hildebrand 56
Chilton 51
Bourdais 42
Daly 39
Pigot 38
Andretti 37
Aleshin 25
Jones 21
Kimball 20
Alonso 17
Vautier 16
Saavedra 12
Muñoz 9
Montoya 3
Gutiérrez 1

And here is what the top 28 positions in the championship would have looked like with stage points:

Driver Championship Points Change in Position
Newgarden 801 0
Pagenaud 783 0
Castroneves 779 +1
Dixon 769 -1
Power 705 0
Rahal 642 0
Rossi 630 0
Hunter-Reay 516 +1
Sato 503 -1
Hinchcliffe 472 +3
Kanaan 461 -1
Chilton 447 -1
Andretti 425 -1
Hildebrand 403 +1
Jones 375 -1
Kimball 347 +1
Daly 344 +1
Muñoz 337 -2
Aleshin 262 0
Bourdais 256 +1
Pigot 256 -1
Carpenter 216 0
Chaves 98 0
Montoya 96 0
Saavedra 92 +1
Gutiérrez 92 -1
Alonso 64 +2
Servià 61 -1

As you can see, there are some changes but none of them are massive. Newgarden would have still been champion and Pagenaud would have still finished second. The first change is Castroneves would have finished ahead of Dixon in third. Hunter-Reay would have finished ahead of Sato by 13 points instead of finishing behind him by 20 points thanks in part to Hunter-Reay scoring points from all but one stage in the final four races while Sato would not have scored a single stage point in the final four races.

The biggest mover would be James Hinchcliffe, who would have jumped three points and rounded out the top ten in the championship. The Canadian's big move would have been facilitated by 96 stage points he scored during the season while the drivers he jumped, Kanaan, Chilton and Andretti score 58 stage points, 51 stage points and 37 stage points respectively. The only other driver that would have more up more than one position was Fernando Alonso, who would have moved from 29th to 27th.

Outside of Hinchcliffe, everybody from 11th to 18th would be in a different position. J.R. Hildebrand would have jumped Ed Jones to 14th because Hildebrand scored stage points on ten occasions while Jones only did it eight times while Jones' best stage finish would have been third in stage two at St. Petersburg while Hildebrand's good days at Phoenix and Iowa as well as good stages at Watkins Glen would have inflated his scored. In fact, Jones scored 21 stage points all season while Hildebrand scored 43 stage points in the six stages from Phoenix, Iowa and Watkins Glen alone. The gap would have swung from Jones ahead by seven to Hildebrand up by 28 points.

Charlie Kimball would have picked up a position to 16th as would Conor Daly to 17th and Carlos Muñoz would have dropped two spots to 18th. Kimball would have scored 20 stage points while Daly would have had 39 stage points and Muñoz would have picked up only nine points from stages all season.

Despite not seismically shifting the championship picture, stage points would shift drivers by providing an increased reward when a driver is having a solid day. Take Hildebrand for example. He jumped a position in the championship basically because he had two solid races at Phoenix and Iowa. Not only did he finish on the podium in both races but also he was in the top five for the entirety of those races. The philosophical question is should running in the top five all race be a reason for a driver to be rewarded?

My thought process is if you are having a solid day then you will get a result that you deserve and it will show there. Stage points add more points to the equation but not necessarily for the better of the championship picture. It separates the herd even more. The top ten drivers in stage points scored would have ended up being the top ten in the championship, granted in a slightly different order. Stage points provide cover for results that were not achieved at the finish of a race. Castroneves scored the most stage points but even with that extra bit added to his total it couldn't completely cover the fact he had one victory and three podium finishes all season. It got him an extra position but that was it.

Stage points would have distracted us from what was a disappointing season for Hinchcliffe. He won at Long Beach but still finished behind three drivers who combined for one podium finish all season. Had there been stage points, those extra 96 points would have covered for six finishes of 20th or worse during the season. In effect it canceled out a few of Hinchcliffe's bad days and once again do we want that? Do we want drivers to be allowed a few mulligans during the season? I don't think so.

Stage points wouldn't have changed much but the good news is it doesn't appear IndyCar will be introducing the concept anytime soon.


Monday, November 6, 2017

Musings From the Weekend: How Did Newgarden Compare to Past Champions?

Martin Truex, Jr. will have a shot at a championship despite not winning at Texas. World Superbike had the record for points scored in a season smashed. Supercars will have five drivers fighting for the championship in three weeks but one driver is in position for a seventh championship. A Porsche broke down in China. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

How Did Newgarden Compare to Past Champions?
We mind as well call this "Penske Week" because we will be looking back on what was another dominating season for the team in IndyCar. Before we get to the team as a whole we will look at its newest driver, who ended up winning the championship in year one.

Josef Newgarden won the Astor Cup in his first year with Team Penske and his sixth season overall. The American was a stud all season despite concerns he would need a season to grow. Newgarden was the top Penske finisher in eight of 17 races this season and that was despite only being the top Penske qualifier twice. In fact, he wasn't the top Penske qualifier until Watkins Glen and he was not the top Penske finisher in either of the two races he was the top qualifier.

Four times Newgarden was the top Penske finisher despite being the worst Penske qualifier. Two of those were his victories at Barber and Toronto and the other two were a second place finish in the second Belle Isle race and a second place finish at Road America.

Ironically, Simon Pagenaud was the top Penske finisher in eight races in his championship season in 2016 but only one of those came when he was the worst Penske qualifier and that was Phoenix where he started tenth and finished second. That was the only race Pagenaud was the worst qualifier for the team in 2016. The Frenchman was the best Penske finisher and qualifier in the same race on four occasions and all four of those were his victories from pole position at Barber, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Mid-Ohio and Sonoma. Where Pagenaud had Newgarden handily beat was top Penske qualifier. Pagenaud accomplished it on seven occasions and he led the team as top qualifier.

Newgarden scored 642 of a possible 1,059 points this season, or 60.623%. That is the second-highest percentage of points in the DW12-era behind Pagenaud, who scored 65.572%. While Newgarden won under a quarter of the races (23.529%), he finished on the podium in 52.941% of the races, the highest percentage since Dario Franchitti in 2011. Despite such a high podium percentage, his percentage of top five finishes was 58.823%, which is below the total average for champions since 1979, which is at 65.749% and it is below the average since reunification, which sits at 62.058%. His top ten finish percentage of 76.470% is the second highest in the DW12-era and just off the average percentage of top ten finishes for champions since 1979, which is 78.219%.

I know some of you are thinking, "How did Newgarden compare to other American champions?" Newgarden became the 28th American champion since 1979 and for the most part, he fell somewhere in the middle. He had the 13th-best points percentage while his winning percentage was 19th-best. He jumped up to 15th-best podium percentage but dropped back to 19th-best for top five percentage and he jumped back up to 15th-best when it came to top ten percentage.

So does this mean Newgarden is just a run of the mill of American and doesn't hold a candle to Mears, Andretti, Rutherford and Foyt? Not necessarily. This is a very different era of IndyCar. Points systems have changed, the schedule has evolved, cars are more, plus there has been schedule fluctuation.

Since 1979, IndyCar schedules have been as long as 20 races and as short as three races (thank you inaugural IRL season). Buzz Calkins had a better winning percentage than Newgarden but Calkins won one of three races. Greg Ray won 30% of the races in 1999 IRL season but Newgarden had to contest seven more races this season than Ray did in 1999.

Stepping aside from percentages for a second, Newgarden's nine podium finishes were the seventh most for an American champion since 1979 and his 13 top ten finishers are tied with Al Unser, Jr.'s 1994 for third most with only Rick Mears in 1979 and Jimmy Vasser in 1996 scoring more top ten finishes. Newgarden's nine podium finishes are the most for a champion in the DW12-era while he his ten top five finishes match Scott Dixon's 2013 championship and Pagenaud's championship for most since 2012.

Once again, what does all that mean? I don't know. I think it is fun to look at numbers even if it doesn't provide a solid answer. It puts what Newgarden did into perspective. When looking at recent seasons it allows us to compare him to his contemporaries but when comparing to the early days of CART it shows us how IndyCar has changed over the last three decades.

While we might not be able to draw conclusions, we can notice trends. For example, we have not had a champion that has won at least a third of the races since Scott Dixon in 2008 and Dixon's 2008 season was also the last time a champion finished on the podium in over two-thirds of the races. No champion has hit double-figures in podium finishes since Franchitti had ten in 2010. IndyCar has not had a champion finish in the top five in at least three-quarters of the races in the DW12-era, something that had occurred in nine of the 12 seasons (4 IRL, 4 Champ Car and 4 post-reunification) prior to the DW12-era.

It will never be cut and dry comparing IndyCar's present to the early years of CART or the early years of the Indy Racing League. While being far from historic, Newgarden's results shows us he earned that championship by consistently being at the front in what was a strong field.

Champions From the Weekend

The #2 Porsche of Timo Bernhard, Brendon Hartley and Earl Bamber clinched the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with a second place finish in the 6 Hours of Shanghai.

Lucas Mahias clinched the World Supersport championship with a victory at Qatar.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Lucas Mahias but did you know...

Jonathan Rea swept the World Superbike races from Qatar. Rea ended his championship season with 556 points, breaking the record for most points scored in a season. Colin Edwards previously held the record after he scored 552 points in his 2002 championship season.

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Kazuki Nakajima and Anthony Davidson won the 6 Hours of Shanghai. The #31 Vaillante Rebellion Oreca-Gibson of Julien Canal, Bruno Senna and Nicolas Prost won in LMP2. The #67 Ford GT of Andy Priaulx and Harry Tincknell won in GTE-Pro. The #98 Aston Martin of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda won in GTE-Am.

Kevin Harvick won the NASCAR Cup race from Texas. Erik Jones won the Grand National Series race. Johnny Sauter won the Truck race.

Shane Van Gisbergen and Jamie Whincup split the Supercars races from Pukekohe Park Raceway.

Coming Up This Weekend
The MotoGP championship will be decided at Valencia.
Two championships will be decided in Super GT at Motegi.
Formula One heads to Brazil.
NASCAR returns to Phoenix for the penultimate race of the season.


Friday, November 3, 2017

Friday Five: Qatar, Pukekohe, Shanghai, Fort Worth

November is year and another pair of championships comes to a close while two others head to their penultimate weekends of 2017. There will be races under the lights on two wheels and four. A first time champion could be crowned. The record books could be rewritten this weekend in many series around the world.

World Superbike Season Finale from Qatar
Jonathan Rea has already locked up the 2017 World Superbike championship but the Kawasaki rider is looking to take sole possession of second most victories in World Superbike history. Rea is currently tied with Troy Bayliss on 52 victories. Rea could also achieve the second most victories in a World Superbike season if he sweeps the weekend. He has won 14 of the first 24 races, matching his career-high for victories in a season. He won 14 races in 2015.

Rea could set a career-high for podium finishes in a season if he finishes in the top three in both races. He has 22 podium finishes from 24 races. Last season, Rea stood on the podium 23 times.

While Rea has locked up the title, Ducati's Chaz Davies and Rea's teammate Tom Sykes are tied for second on 363 points. Davies holds the tiebreaker over Sykes with seven victories to Sykes' two. Davies finished second in the championship in 2015 while Sykes finished second last season and he has finished second in the championship three of the last five seasons.

Marco Melandri sits fourth in the championship on 201 points with Sam Lowes rounding out the top five on 226 points. Michael Van der Mark is 16 points behind his Yamaha teammate in sixth. Melandri has finished on the podium in five of the last seven races. Lowes has two runner-up finishes this season while van der Mark's best finished was second in the second race at Algarve.

Last year, Davies swept the Qatar weekend while Rea finished second and third in the races respectively and Sykes finished second in race two. Sylvain Guintoli finished third in race one last year. Kawasaki has never won at the Losail International Circuit.

Race one takes place at 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday November 3rd with race two scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on Saturday November 4th.

World Supersport Season Finale from Qatar
The World Supersport title is up for grabs entering its season finale but Yamaha's Lucas Mahias has some room to breathe.

The French rider holds a 20-point lead over Kawasaki's Kenan Sofuoglu as the Turkish rider will attempt to ride this weekend after missing the last two races due to injury. Sofuoglu has missed four of the 11 races this season due to injury. Sofuoglu won at Qatar in 2007 and he has finished second the last two years. Mahais has finished fourth in both his two Qatar starts.

Mahais could become the fourth Frenchman to win the World Supersport championship joining Stéphane Chambon, Fabien Foret and Sébastien Charpentier, who won back-to-back titles in 2004 and 2005. He would be the first WSS champion for Yamaha since Chaz Davies took the title in 2011. Sofuoglu is aiming for a record extending sixth championship and it would be Kawasaki's fourth championship, tying Yamaha for second most championships for a manufacture.

Honda has won the last four World Supersport races at Qatar and seven of eight races all-time at Losail with Kyle Smith winning the last two years. Honda's Jules Cluzel has not won this season and he sits third in the championship on 135 points, three ahead of Kallio Racing Yamaha's Sheridan Morias. American P.J. Jacobsen rounds out the top five on 108 points but the MV Agusta rider has not won this season and he is three points ahead of Yamaha's Federico Caricasulo, who picked up his second victory of the season two weeks ago at Jerez.

The World Supersport season finale will be at 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday November 4th.

Auckland SuperSprint
The Supercars Championship makes its annual trip to New Zealand and this year Pukekohe Park Raceway hosts the penultimate round of the season. With 600 points left on the table, five drivers remain alive for the championship.

Despite only one podium finish from the four races over the Enduro Cup portion of the calendar Red Bull Racing Australia's Jamie Whincup took the championship after Surfers Paradise. The six-time champion has 2,580 points. He has two victories and 12 podium finishes this season from 21 points-paying races. Fabian Coulthard dropped to second in the championship, 17 points behind Whincup. Those two drivers have not won a race since Sydney Motorsports Park in August.

Scott McLaughlin's victory at Surfers Paradise has him third in the championship, 27 points behind Whincup. McLaughlin has the most victories this season with seven and he has 13 podium finishes this season but he has yet to finish third this season. Enduro Cup winner Chaz Mostert trails Whincup by 126 points. Mostert has ten consecutive top ten finishes. Whincup's teammate Shane Van Gisbergen rounds out the top five, 189 points behind his teammate. Van Gisbergen has three victories this season but he has not won since Winton Motor Raceway in May.

Van Gisbergen won race two last year at Pukekohe with Whincup taking the first and fourth race of the weekend and Mark Winterbottom taking the third race. Whincup leads all active drivers with five victories at Pukekohe.

Race one of the weekend will take place at 11:10 p.m. ET on Friday November 3rd with the second race of the weekend scheduled for 11:10 p.m. ET on Saturday November 4th.

6 Hours of Shanghai
Shanghai hosts the penultimate round of the 2017 FIA World Endurance Championship season and while one championship could be decided early, the other three class championship likely won't be decided until the season finale at Bahrain.

The #2 Porsche of Timo Bernhard, Brendon Hartley and Earl Bamber has 172 points and the team is coming off its worst finish of the season after a fourth place finish at Fuji. The #2 Porsche has a 39-point lead over the #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi and Kazuki Nakajima. Buemi, Nakajima and Anthony Davidson took the victory in the 6 Hours of Fuji. The #2 Porsche can clinch the championship with a podium finish at Shanghai. Bernhard and Hartley has won the last two years at Shanghai with Mark Webber. Buemi and Davidson won the 2014 6 Hours of Shanghai.

In LMP2, the title will come down to one of three teams. The #38 Jackie Chan DC Racing Oreca-Gibson of Ho-Pin Tung, Oliver Jarvis and Thomas Laurent has 145 points and has a ten-point lead over Julien Canal and Bruno Senna, drivers of the #31 Vaillante Rebellion Oreca-Gibson with Nicolas Prost. The #31 Oreca has won two of the last three races and it has finished on the podium six times this season. Defending Endurance Trophy for LMP2 Drivers' champion Gustavo Menezes trails the #38 Oreca by 25 points. Menezes shares the #36 Signatech Alpine-Gibson with Nicolas Lapierre and André Negrão.

The field is wide open in GTE-Pro. James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi picked up their third victory in four races at Fuji and the drivers of the #51 AF Corse Ferrari holds the GT World Endurance Drivers' Championship lead with 120 points. Five points back are Richard Leitz and Frédéric Makowiecki, drivers of the #91 Porsche. Leitz and Makowiecki have yet to win this season but they have five podium finishes. Davide Rigon sits on 105.5 while his #51 AF Corse Ferrari co-driver Sam Bird has 105 points because he missed the Nürburgring round.

Andy Priaulx and Harry Tincknell won last year at Shanghai and the #67 Ford GT drivers sit on 102.5 points. The Aston Martin drivers Marco Sørensen, Nicki Thiim, Darren Turner and Jonathan Adam are all tied on 87 points but Sørensen and Thiim hold the tiebreaker with their victory in Mexico City in the #95 Aston Martin. Stefan Mücke and Olivier Pla have a slim shot at the championship with 73 points but the #66 Ford GT has yet to win in FIA WEC competition, although it was credited with a victory for Le Mans last year because it was the top finishing championship-eligible car in GTE-Pro.

In GTE-Am, the #77 Dempsey-Proton Racing Porsche of Christian Ried, Marvin Dienst and Matteo Cairoli took a one-point championship lead over the #98 Aston Martin of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda. Six points back is the #61 Clearwater Racing Ferrari of Weng Sun Mok, Matt Griffin and Keita Sawa. Thomas Flohr and Francesco Castellacci kept their title hopes alive with their victory at Fuji with Miguel Molina in the #54 Spirit of Race Ferrari. Flohr and Castellacci are 47 points back.

The 6 Hours of Shanghai starts at 11:00 p.m. ET on Saturday November 4th.

NASCAR at Texas Motor Speedway
The antepenultimate round of the NASCAR season takes place at Texas Motor Speedway and seven drivers are competing for three spots to decide the championship in the season finale at Homestead.

Kyle Busch clinched a spot in the final four with his victory at Martinsville. It will be the third consecutive year Busch has finished in the top four of the championship. Martin Truex, Jr. leads the championship standings with 4,117 points and he is 17 points ahead of Busch. Truex, Jr.'s second place finish at Martinsville was his best career finish at the track and his first top five finish at the track since 2012. Truex, Jr. has finished in the top five in six of the last seven races. Truex, Jr. and Busch have each won three of the last seven races.

Truex, Jr. has been having an historic season on mile-and-a-half tracks. The New Jerseyan has six victories on 1.5-mile ovals this season. His only victory not on a 1.5-mile oval was at Watkins Glen. His average finish on 1.5-mile ovals this season is 2.777 and his worst finish on a 1.5-mile oval is eighth. Truex, Jr. has finished in the top ten in five consecutive Texas races but only one of those was a top five finish. His career-best finish at Texas was second in the 2013 spring race.

Brad Keselowski trails Truex, Jr. by 38 points with Kevin Harvick 64 points back. Jimmie Johnson rounds out the top five with 4,050 points, three less than Harvick and Ryan Blaney is a further three points behind Johnson. Denny Hamlin is two points behind Blaney with Chase Elliott rounding out the top eight on 4,027 points, 90 points behind Truex, Jr.

Johnson won at Texas in April, his fourth victory in the last six Texas races and his seventh victory at the track overall, more than any other driver. The only other Chase drivers with Texas victories are Busch and Hamlin and each of those drivers have won at the track twice. Both of Busch's victories have come in the spring race, 2013 and 2016 and Hamlin swept the Texas races in 2010.

Keselowski has not won a Cup race at Texas but he is responsible for Ford's only 1.5-mile oval victory this season and that was at the second race of the season at Atlanta. Harvick has not won at Texas in the Cup series but he has six consecutive top ten finishes at the track and he started on pole position in the spring race. Blaney has finished 12th in the last two Texas races, his best finish at the track but he led 148 laps in this year's spring race after starting second. Elliott's three finishes in three Texas starts are fifth, fourth and ninth.

The NASCAR Cup race from Texas will be at 2:16 p.m. ET on Sunday November 5th.

Over or Under?
1. Over or Under: 3.5 lead changes between the two World Superbike races from Qatar?
2. Over or Under: 0.800 seconds being the margin of victory in World Supersport?
3. Over or Under: 99.5 laps led by Ford drivers between the two races at Pukekohe?
4. Over or Under: 1.5 classes won by non-European teams at Shanghai?
5. Over or Under: 304.5 laps completed by David Starr in the Cup race?

Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Over: Five cars had grid penalties for the Mexican Grand Prix. 
2. Under: Álvaro Bautista left Sepang with 75 points.
3. Over: There were six Fords in the top ten at Martinsville.
4. Over: Six drivers won a stage at Wales Rally GB.
5. Under: There were five European winners across the three classes at Zhuhai.

Predictions
1. Kawasaki wins a race at Qatar but does not sweep the weekend.
2. There is a first time winner this season in World Supersport.
3. One of the winners from Pukekoke starts outside the top four.
4. At least two Shanghai class winners are victorious from pole position. 
5. There will at least be one incident of contact between active Chase drivers.

Last Week's Predictions
1. Red Bull puts both cars on the podium (Wrong! Ricciardo retired).
2. Michael van der Mark finishes in the top ten (Wrong! He finished 16th).
3. There is at least one red flag at Martinsville (Wrong!).
4. Sébastien Ogier wins the Power Stage (Wrong! He finished 4th on the Power Stage).
5. At least two classes are decided by more than a lap (Wrong! Only LMP2 was decided by a lap).
Last Week: 0/5 Overall: 18/32


Wednesday, November 1, 2017

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2017 Season

We have reached the penultimate IndyCar team review and it is Chip Ganassi Racing. In the team's first season back with Honda, it remained in championship contention but the team's four-car armada was really one ship taking on the rest of IndyCar's best with the other three unable to show any might.

Scott Dixon carried Chip Ganassi Racing in 2017
Scott Dixon
The New Zealander entered the 2017 season coming off his worst season in over a decade after he finished sixth in the championship in 2016. It did not take long for Dixon to get back to the front of the field. The debris caution at St. Petersburg dropped him outside of the top ten but he picked his way through the field and ended up with a third place finish. Dixon took the lead early at Long Beach but an untimely pit stop when he thought a caution would come out dropped him behind the likes of Ryan Hunter-Reay and Alexander Rossi. Then he was caught out when Rossi had an engine failure and he finished fourth. He finished second again at Barber, his fifth runner-up finish at the track. He finished fifth at Phoenix, the top of the Honda entries.

In the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Dixon started fourth but had a better run than the likes of Hélio Castroneves and Josef Newgarden and he finished second. He was the third-fastest qualifier on Saturday qualifying for the Indianapolis 500. After Sébastien Bourdais had his accident in qualifying, the door was open for anybody to take the pole position and Dixon took it on Sunday with a four-lap average of 231.442 MPH. In the race, Dixon was at the front and it looked he would be at the front all race. He happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time as Jay Howard's car slid across the race track after brushing the wall in turn one. Dixon launched over the Brit, collided with the catch fence on the inside of the south chute and slammed into the earth. Dixon walked away but with a 32nd-place finish.

He may have been a little sore at Belle Isle but he did not let it slow him down. He couldn't challenge Graham Rahal in race one but he worked his way to second and he took the championship lead. He went with a three-stop strategy in race two instead of repeating the two-stop strategy he played in race one. He started eighth, ran in the top ten all race and finished sixth. Dixon was on Will Power's gearbox for most of the night at Texas and when it came time to challenge for the victory, Dixon was clipped from behind when Takuma Sato was a little too ambitious. It cost him at least a top five finish but he was still classified in ninth.

Team Penske swept the top four positions in qualifying at Road America and it appeared any one of those four would win the race. However, Dixon ran 14 laps on the first two stints and that got him to second position. He got his one opportunity at the lead on the first restart and he made the most of it as he took the lead from Josef Newgarden. He started 17th at Iowa and he had to really work just to get an eighth place finish. He had a strong run going at Toronto but he was one of many caught out when his teammate Tony Kanaan ended up in the turn one tires. Dixon had to fight for a tenth place finish.

Dixon could not re-create his Mid-Ohio magic. He finished ninth but he dropped to third in the championship after leading for six races. He had another strong run in another 500-mile race and he led the most laps at Pocono but Power, Newgarden and Alexander Rossi were better late in the race and Dixon dropped to a sixth-place finish. Gateway was always going to be a struggle for the Hondas but Dixon had a smart race. He wasn't going to run down the Penskes but he stayed in their tracks, had great in and out laps, great pit stops and was there any time a gap open. He started seventh but found himself in second place when the checkered flag was waved. He was always going to be second best at Watkins Glen but he did give Rossi a run for it. He entered the finale second in the championship with a shot at his fifth-title with him trailing Newgarden by three points. However, Dixon could not break the Penske stranglehold and could not put pressure on Newgarden. He finished fourth and dropped to third in the final championship standings.

Scott Dixon's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 3rd (621 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 16
Laps Led: 131
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 9
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 5.29
Average Finish: 6.294

The Tony Kanaan-era came to an end at CGR
Tony Kanaan
The Brazilian celebrated his 20th season in IndyCar and his season started with a little bad luck as his contact with Mikhail Aleshin caused a caution and it had him stuck in the middle of the field. He finished 12th in the season opener at St. Petersburg. A cut tire likely cost him a top ten finish at Long Beach, as he finished 15th. Two solid results followed the two poor runs with Kanaan starting tenth and finishing seventh at Barber and he was the top Honda qualifier at Phoenix in sixth and he finished that race in sixth.

Kanaan was spun in turn seven on the first lap of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and that killed his day. He had to settle for 20th-place finish. For the Indianapolis 500, he started seventh and he quickly found himself at the front of the field and leading laps with his teammate Dixon. However, as we got into the second quarter of the race the Andretti Autosport cars took control and Kanaan fell back. Then cautions shuffled everything up and the best he could do was fifth. He finished 15th in race one at Belle Isle and a pass on the final restart in race two gave him a tenth place finish. Texas was the race where Kanaan raised a few eyebrows and pissed off about a third of the grid because of his antics that caused the big accident on lap 152. He was handed a two-lap penalty but because of competition cautions over concerns for tire life, Kanaan was waved around and found himself on the lead lap for the final restart. The fortunate break allowed him to charge to a second place finish.

Things came back and bit him at Road America as slight contact with Alexander Rossi in the kink ended his race with 11 laps to go. He ran at the back of the top ten all race at Iowa and he finished ninth. He was in the top ten at Toronto before he locked up his tires in turn one after making a pit stop. He lost two laps and finished 19th. Things did not improve at Mid-Ohio and he finished 16th.

Pocono saw Kanaan at the front for a portion of the race, including a memorable 12-lap rotation of the lead with him and Graham Rahal. He was the best on restarts but he didn't have the best car over long runs and he settled for fifth. Kanaan's season could not have ended on a worse note. Mechanical issues caused the team to park the car early at Gateway and Kanaan was not happy. He slid into the pit wall on exit immediately after Josef Newgarden did it, except Kanaan's race was over after that. He season and his tenure at Chip Ganassi Racing ended with a 16th-place finish at Sonoma.

Tony Kanaan's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 10th (403 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 55
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 5
Average Start: 0.0
Average Finish: 0.0

Max Chilton made a step forward in his sophomore season
Max Chilton
The Brit's sophomore season started slow but progressed. Chilton started seventh but a late pit stop for fuel dropped him to a 16th-place finish in the season opener at St. Petersburg. He had to start at the back at Long Beach and the best he could do was 14th. He started in the top ten again at Barber but he fell back to a 12th-place finish. He was one of the many cars collected in the first turn first lap accident at Phoenix.

He started 14th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis but he had a clean race, made some moves and he finished seventh. He started 15th in the Indianapolis 500 and he was one of the drivers who went off strategy and had a caution keep him at the front of the field and in contention for the victory. He led the most laps in the race, 50 laps, but he fell back and finished fourth. He had two average races at Belle Isle with finishes of 11th and 15th. He was once again in the top ten at Texas but he was collateral damage in the accident between Takuma Sato and Scott Dixon. Despite not completing three laps, Chilton still finished eighth.

Chilton ran a three-stop strategy at Road America and it got him a ninth place finish. He had a rough day at Iowa and finished 14th. He bounced back at Toronto with a smart strategy and he made up a few positions during pit cycles to get him a seventh place finish. After a good run through the early part of the summer, Chilton hit a rough patch with a 15th-place finish at Mid-Ohio followed by mechanical issues at Pocono ending his race early and a spin at Gateway in turn four was the cherry on top of that three-race stretch. He stopped under the first caution at Watkins Glen and it benefitted him as he finished eighth. He concluded the season with a 12th-place finish at Sonoma.

Max Chilton's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 11th (396 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 64
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 12.588
Average Finish: 12.176

While Chilton took a step forward, Charlie Kimball took two steps back
Charlie Kimball
The one-time IndyCar race winner could not get through lap one for the first two races of the season. He made contact early on at St. Petersburg but he completed 105 of 110 laps. At Long Beach, he only completed one lap before his race was over after contact with Will Power. He went off strategy at Barber but other then leading 11 laps it did not work out and he finished where he started in 15th. He avoided the first lap first turn accident at Phoenix and that was all he had to do to get an eighth place finish.

The month of May did not go well for Kimball despite recent success at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. His Grand Prix of Indianapolis ended after 32 laps due to a mechanical failure. He started 16th for the Indianapolis 500 and pit strategy and cautions shuffled him to the front and he led five laps but he was one of the many Hondas to suffer an engine failure while running in the top five. Kimball started tenth for race one at Belle Isle but he made contact with Conor Daly after Daly's car lost power. Kimball had to change his front wing and he finished 21st, one lap down. In race two, things turned around a bit and he finished eighth. Things really looked positive at Texas where Charlie Kimball picked up his first career pole position. He led 26 laps but his race ended after 41 laps due to a leak.

Road America was the first good weekend start to finish for Kimball. He started tenth and finished sixth. He was not a factor at Iowa and finished 15th. An early call to go off strategy did not benefit Kimball at Toronto and he finished 12th. He started 13th and finished 13th at Mid-Ohio. Kimball had to make an early front wing change at Pocono and he finished 16th. At Gateway, he made some questionable moves, most notably blocking Conor Daly exiting turn two, but he still finished seventh. He followed that up with another seventh place finish at Watkins Glen. He closed the season with an 11th-place finish at Sonoma.

Charlie Kimball's 2017 Statistics
Championship Positions: 17th (327 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 53
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 11.647
Average Finish: 14.411

This was a year when anyone of three drivers should have won the championship and Dixon was one of those three drivers. His only result outside the top ten was an unfortunate accident at Indianapolis, a double points race nonetheless. Dixon was probably going to finish in the top five at Indianapolis. If he finished fifth instead of 32nd in that race, Dixon would have won the title with room to breathe.

While he finished third in the championship, you could argue this was another bad year for Scott Dixon by Scott Dixon's standards. Last year was bad because he finished sixth in the championship and Dixon is so used to finishing in the top three. This year Dixon only had one victory, the fewest he has had since 2005. Don't get me wrong, Dixon probably could have won St. Petersburg, Long Beach, Indianapolis, Texas and Pocono and any one who thinks this season is the sign of a decline in Dixon because he only won once has their head in the sand. This man will have the third-most victories in IndyCar history by this time next year.

The issue this year for Chip Ganassi Racing was it was Scott Dixon versus the world. Dixon was the top Ganassi finisher 13 times. He was the top Ganassi qualifier 13 times. This was a bad year for Tony Kanaan and his best result arguably came in a race where he should have been parked. Charlie Kimball had a disastrous season after constantly being in the top ten last year. Max Chilton did well and made progress from year one but when it came time for Dixon to have a teammate, a wingman if you will, to be by his side in the final races, he didn't have that. Teammates are what helped him win the championship in 2015. When Juan Pablo Montoya and Will Power got together and fell back, teammates Kanaan and Kimball were there to take up positions and stay in front of Montoya, allowing Dixon to win the race and win the championship on tiebreaker.

Ganassi appeared to have his plans for 2018 laid out at the end of September. It appeared the team would contract to two cars and Dixon's new teammate would be Porsche driver Brendon Hartley. However, Hartley caught the eye of Scuderia Toro Rosso and it seemed Ganassi's offseason sunk into the depths of uncertainty and then Plan B came out of nowhere. Plan B turned out to be Ganassi hiring Ed Jones from Dale Coyne Racing in a surprising silly season move.

As covered before, Jones had a really good start to the season but regressed in the second half of the season. It is hard to pin why Jones declined but whatever Ganassi saw was enough to get him a job. Ganassi is either getting a promising driver who could be with the team for the next ten to 15 years or someone who had three and a half good months and the team's roll of the dice could lead the team to cut the strings in a year or two.

Ganassi's decision to contract to two cars was in hopes to recapture the magic of years gone by of the days of Vasser/Zanardi and Dixon/Franchitti. There are no worries about Dixon but there will be a weight of expectations on Jones to keep up with his teammate and not only provide support when needed but be the best of the two once in a while.


Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Right When IndyCar Silly Season Settled Down It Turned On Its Ear

In the middle of summer it appeared IndyCar was set for a noticeable shift with familiar faces potentially on the way out and a few outsiders from the IndyCar and Road to Indy scene coming into the series. Weeks and races fell away and the silly season storylines began to settle in and we had plenty of time to wrap our heads around what was to occur this autumn and winter in lead up to the 2018 season.

Then the bottom fell out and we are back to the uncertain silly season we had thought we had already endured. Faces we expected to enter have passed by and the faces we expected to stay may have been kicked out the door.

Some pieces have expectedly fallen in place. Hélio Castroneves is moving on. Takuma Sato moves from Andretti Autosport to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. Zach Veach replaces Sato at Andretti Autosport. Spencer Pigot becomes Ed Carpenter Racing's full-time driver while J.R. Hildebrand returns to unemployment. Tony Kanaan signed with A.J. Foyt Racing. Robert Wickens announced his switch from Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters to IndyCar with Wickens joining his fellow Canadian James Hinchcliffe at Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

After that, the puzzle has not been as easy to complete as it once appeared. Brendon Hartley was signed with Chip Ganassi Racing but the Porsche LMP1 star had to wait for the deal to be announced. In the interim, the New Zealander ended up getting a call from Scuderia Toro Rosso and one attempt in the United States Grand Prix turned into another and now he will finish the 2017 Formula One season with Toro Rosso in what appears to be an audition for the 2018 season.

With Hartley following the Formula One path, Ganassi did not waste a second and signed Ed Jones from Dale Coyne Racing and another set of dominos are starting to fall that we didn't see set up behind us.

Dale Coyne Racing had hoped to keep Jones paired with Sébastien Bourdais for another season. The team started out strong with Bourdais winning the season opener and leading the championship until Phoenix and Jones had a respectable start to the season with two top ten finishes in the first two races. After Bourdais' injury, Jones finished third in the Indianapolis 500 but he started to struggle in the second half of the season as he vaulted from role of rookie to team leader at Belle Isle with Esteban Gutiérrez joining the team with no IndyCar testing to his name.

It appeared Dale Coyne Racing was ready to build on the foundation laid in 2017. The team was ready to potentially make a run at the front of the grid on a regular basis with a healthy Bourdais and a more experienced Jones. Now the team has to look for a new partner for the Frenchman.

While Coyne is looking for a new driver, a pair of teammates is looking for new teams. Conor Daly came out and publicly said his days with A.J. Foyt Racing are done after a season. Meanwhile, Carlos Muñoz has said he is looking for an Indianapolis 500 one-off and a full-time IMSA prototype seat for the 2018 season and he will not sign for a new team entering IndyCar. Larry Foyt came out and neither confirmed nor denied the team would not keep Daly or Muñoz to team with Kanaan but all indications the team is moving on and an Indy Lights driver has become the clubhouse leader for the #4 Chevrolet.

Matheus Leist has been linked to join his fellow Brazilian Kanaan at A.J. Foyt Racing. Leist finished fourth in the Indy Lights championship last year driving for Carlin, his first season in the series after he won the BRDC Formula Three Championship in 2016. The 20-year-old Leist won the Freedom 100, the first race from Road America and at Iowa last year. Brazilian television money is reportedly backing Leist's rise to IndyCar.

We have reached the end of October and the bad news for the likes of Daly, Muñoz and any other aspiring IndyCar driver is the selection of full-time seats for 2018 has dwindled to slim pickings. Penske has confirmed three seats with Foyt sticking to two and Ed Carpenter Racing only needs a driver for road and street course races, a demotion for any driver that was full-time. On the Honda side, Andretti Autosport is set at four; Ganassi is set at two as is Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

Besides the second Foyt seat, the other full-time seat open from last year is the #19 Honda for Dale Coyne Racing and the question will be what does Coyne want to do with that seat? Does Coyne want to continue with the plan of having a teammate who can work hand-in-hand with Bourdais or does the loss of Jones shake everything up and lead Coyne to return to his old ways of taking the drivers with the biggest check?

If that is the case then it appears Daly and Muñoz will both lose out on the #19 Honda. Esteban Gutiérrez drove for DCR last year and he brought some money last year and the anticipated IndyCar race in Mexico City only helps his chances of getting on the IndyCar grid. Besides Gutiérrez, Daniil Kvyat will be moving on from Formula One and he has reportedly been interested in IndyCar. Russian drivers find money and I don't think Kvyat would be any different.

Full-time rides are getting harder to come by. The eight teams returning from last year appear to be committed to field 19 full-time cars, down from 21 cars in 2017. Harding Racing has said it plans to be full-time in 2018 and Gabby Chaves is the lead candidate to drive for that team but a formal announcement has not been made. Juncos Racing has announced it will contest Kyle Kaiser in four races next season and has not ruled out a full-time season and that team could potentially have two cars. Carlin has been quiet about its IndyCar plans in the early stages of this offseason. If Carlin were to come into IndyCar Max Chilton has been linked as its driver and it is unclear whether the team would run a second car. Charlie Kimball was originally linked to a second Carlin seat back in the late summer.

Outside of new teams it is hard to see more full-time opportunities coming from teams already on the grid. Penske, Ganassi and Andretti are tapped out. I can't see Coyne going to three cars; that goes for Foyt and ECR as well. Schmidt Peterson Motorsports running three full-time cars has been a rumor before. Maybe the addition of Sato could bring enough Honda funding to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing to make three cars possible but that seems to be a stretch.

We have reached an odd point in the silly season. Most pieces are in place but it isn't clear what will happen next and the next pieces are crucial. Surefire lineups have been torn apart and the grid size could be in some fluctuation with perhaps fewer full-time teams than 2017 if the likes of Harding, Juncos and Carlin don't enter the series. Then there is Jack Harvey who says he has the funding for six races next season. I have a feeling Harvey's landing place may have to wait until the full-time seats are figured out.

The IndyCar offseason has only been going on for six weeks and there are still 19 weeks until St. Petersburg. There is too much down time left for it feeling this urgent.


Monday, October 30, 2017

Musings From the Weekend: Newgarden Deserves a Shot at Formula One and He Isn't The Only One

Despite getting together with Sebastian Vettel on lap one, Lewis Hamilton clinched his fourth World Drivers' Championship in Mexico City and he has more World Drivers' Championships than any other British driver. Andrea Dovizioso kept his MotoGP championship hopes alive with another victory in the wet at Sepang. Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch all got together at some point at Martinsville. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Newgarden Deserves a Shot at Formula One and He Isn't The Only One
I would like to thank Haas F1 Team Principal Guenther Steiner because he has forced me to get to something I had planned on touching in a few weeks but his comments this weekend about Josef Newgarden's desire to race in Formula One created the perfect time.

Steiner said Newgarden could not just jump into Formula One and one reason for it was the pressure. "It's a lot more pressure," he said of Formula One and, "the pressure here is tremendous. After three races if you don't deliver, you know what your are – an idiot and you need to leave." Steiner cited Brendon Hartley's struggle in his debut at the United States Grand Prix at how tough Formula One is but in the next breath slightly contradicts himself and defended why Hartley could be in Formula One and not Newgarden because Hartley had been exposed to the culture of Formula One because of a prior role as a test driver, a role Newgarden never got the chance to experience.

Part of me thinks Steiner's words are a little out of context and I think what he is trying to say is Newgarden cannot just jump into Formula One and be a successful driver immediately but I think this is where it gets lost the minutia. I don't think anyone is saying Newgarden would come into Formula One and immediately start contending for podium finishes. What some people want and what I bet Newgarden wants is a chance to show what he has got.

Newgarden couldn't jump into a Formula One car and immediately start competing for top five finishes but why couldn't he have a year to consistently score points and maybe catch the attention of a team and potentially earn a promotion? That is basically what Valtteri Bottas did for four seasons at Williams and it earned him a Mercedes seat. Carlos Sainz, Jr. did the same thing at Scuderia Toro Rosso and he is now at Renault. I would love to see an American driver winning races in Formula One but first I want an American driver who can consistently show he or she is competitive and scores points on a regular basis and I think Newgarden can be that driver.

When it appeared Pierre Gasly would not be in Austin for the United States Grand Prix because of a scheduling conflict with his Super Formula commitments I wondered why an American-based driver, an IndyCar drive to be specific couldn't get the opportunity to do one race. André Lotterer got a shot in the 2014 Belgian Grand Prix in a one-off for Caterham and the man had won the 24 Hours of Le Mans three times, he was a World Endurance Drivers' Champion and he had won championships in Super GT and Super Formula. You don't win that much and not have talent and Lotterer deserved the opportunity.

IndyCar has its share of successful drivers. Besides Newgarden, who has enough FIA Super License points thanks to his championship this season, Scott Dixon was another name that came to mind of a guy who should at least get one crack at Formula One. You don't accidentally win four championships and 40 IndyCar races, not to forget mentioning two 24 Hours of Daytona victories overall and a finish on a class podium in the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Simon Pagenaud is another one of those drivers with success across many disciplines. Beside having an IndyCar championship to his name, Pagenaud won many races in LMP1, including for the factory Peugeot effort and he finished second overall at Le Mans with Peugeot.

Anyone of those three are talented enough for Formula One but there is a cloud hanging over the heads of North American-based drivers that makes them appear inferior to the Formula One teams based in Europe. At some point you have to see success and think it can't all be a fluke or the level of competition isn't at an insufficient standard.

Steiner's thought process has many flaws when it comes to why Newgarden is not ready for Formula One. If he is discrediting IndyCar for not having enough pressure for a driver to make the switch to Formula One, then what about the handful of drivers that have moved to Formula One directly from Formula Three in recent seasons? Does Formula Three really have more pressure than IndyCar? Max Verstappen and Lance Stroll followed that path and while Verstappen and Stroll have had their taste of success both have shown pure immaturity at times on the racetrack.

Esteban Ocon entered Formula One in the middle of last year after ten DTM races where he scored all of two points and the year prior to that he won the GP3 Series championship. Is there more pressure in GP3 and DTM than IndyCar? Let's not forget to point out the driver that had two points from ten DTM races has finished every race in his brief Formula One career and he has scored points in 17 of 18 races in 2017.

Another fallacy in Steiner's logic is while he said Hartley's experience as a test driver was enough of a reason for him to be in Formula One and why Newgarden should not be in Formula One, does that apply to all former test/reserved drivers? Would Carmen Jordá be a better fit for Formula One than Newgarden? Because despite failing to score a point in 44 GP3 starts and failing to qualify for two GP3 races and being disqualified in another and let's not forget her average finish of 18.0 in five Indy Lights starts in 2010, she was a development driver for Lotus F1 and Renault. By Steiner's logic, she is more qualified for Formula One than Newgarden. Is Haas' current development driver Santino Ferrucci, who had one podium finish in 26 GP3 starts, more qualified than Newgarden?

And there is just one more thing Steiner should consider. Didn't his team employ Esteban Gutiérrez for the 2016 season? I believe Haas did and if I recall Gutiérrez scored a grand total of zero points for the team and he got a full season! I thought drivers that didn't deliver results within three races were idiots and had to leave? And yet, Haas kept him on for the full season. So who is the idiot Guenther, the driver who doesn't score or the team that chooses to keep him on?

Let's not forget to mention that Gutiérrez went to IndyCar and while he had respectable results considering his lack of testing, the pressure he endured in Formula One didn't seem to give him an advantage once he got to IndyCar and he never once was a challenger to the likes of Newgarden, Dixon and Pagenaud.

If there is one thing I think we all wish would stop are people coming up with a reason for why an IndyCar driver couldn't make it in Formula One and not even think about giving him or her a chance. There has to come a point where a driver's success gets someone's attention. Talent is talent regardless of series and it will get the job done anywhere.

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Lewis Hamilton but did you know...

Franco Morbidelli clinched the Moto2 championship after Thomas Lüthi was unable to start the race from Sepang.

Sébastien Ogier clinched his fifth consecutive World Rally Championship with a third place finish in Wales Rally GB.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Andrea Dovizioso but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Mexican Grand Prix.

Miguel Olivera won the Moto2 race from Sepang, his second consecutive victory. Joan Mir picked up his tenth Moto3 victory of the season.

Elfyn Evans won Wales Rally GB, his first career WRC victory.

Kyle Busch won the NASCAR Cup race from Martinsville. Noah Gragson won the Truck race, his first career Truck series victory.

The #8 Jackie Chan DC Racing Oreca-Nissan of Thomas Laurent, Stéphane Richelmi and Harrison Newey won the 4 Hours of Zhuhai. The #18 KCMG Ligier-Nissan of Josh Burdon, Neric Wei and Louis Prette won in LMP3. The #91 FIST-Team AAI BMW of Jesse Krohn, Chaz Mostert and Junsan Chen won in GT.

Tom Chilton and Nobert Michelisz split the WTCC races from Motegi.

Coming Up This Weekend
World Superbike and World Supersport closes out their seasons in Qatar.
The FIA World Endurance Championship has its penultimate round at Shanghai.
Supercars heads to New Zealand and Pukekohe Park Raceway to be specific.
NASCAR's antepenultimate round is at Texas Motor Speedway.