Musings From the Weekend: Daytona Deliberations

The Drive to Survive release date was announced for March 19. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have some throwback liveries in 2021. The Asian Le Mans Series concluded its ten-day season. Tony Kanaan is going to compete full-time in the Stock Car Brasil series. James Davison might be back for the Indianapolis 500. Pietro Fittipaldi remains the reserve driver at Haas. NASCAR had a pair of first-time winners this weekend and one was a debutant. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Daytona Deliberations

NASCAR spent its first two weeks of the season in Daytona, but unlike other years when the Clash and Daytona 500 qualifying led off before the main event, these Speedweeks saw two points-paying weekends, with the Daytona 500 leading off the season ahead of a road course race, which was a replacement for a lost Fontana race. 

Through two weekends, time was a key theme and it raises many questions about future decisions.

For starters, a lengthy delay of the Daytona 500 caused many to wonder whether NASCAR made the correct decision restarting a race that was only 16 laps old after 9:00 p.m. ET on a Sunday night. With practically all the race left to complete, the 63rd edition of NASCAR's most famous race did not end until Monday morning. 

While the race was completed in one go, the primetime/late-night window did not attract more viewers, in fact it drew fewer viewers than the delayed Monday evening race from the year before. 

We have been debating race start times for the better part of the last two decades since the influx of television money has seen regular 1:00 p.m. start times morph into regular 3:00 p.m. start times. A 1:00 p.m. start is now a special occasion. 

The Daytona 500 start time has not been safe from bouncing around. It has gone from 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m., back to 1:00 p.m. and then back to 3:00 p.m. Every time NASCAR has sought the dinnertime finish it has found itself in a precarious situation and returned to an early afternoon window. After spending the back half of the 2000s starting around 3:00 p.m., the race moved back to a 1:20 p.m. green flag time in 2010 after a rain-shortened race in 2009. 

The one-ish start time remained through 2016, but even an early start time didn't mean the race was free of delays. The 2010 race was red-flagged when the track came apart. The 2012 race was rain-delayed until Monday night. The 2014 race completed 39 laps before rain and a tornado warning delayed the race six hours. 

In 2017, the race start inched back to 2:40 p.m., then back another ten minutes to 2:50 p.m. in 2018, and the race has started between 2:30 and 3:30 p.m. ever since.

But after consecutive seasons with red flags coming within the first 50 miles of the race, many are calling for an earlier start time and it just might have traction. 

No one wants a rain-delayed race or a rain-shortened race, but there is a better solution than effectively starting a race at 9:00 p.m. on a Sunday night in February. 

NASCAR cannot let its biggest race of the season get lost in the night with most people tuning out and forgetting it is even happening. It is one thing to have an Atlanta race drag on or a Homestead race. The Daytona 500 is not another race. It is the race NASCAR should want everyone to see and it should aim for the highest possible viewership. NASCAR might not want the race to be on Monday, but Monday evening is a lot better than finish after 11:00 p.m. on Sunday. 

An earlier start time creates a larger window. We have seen 1:00 p.m. start time races delayed due to rain, but a six-hour delay in that case means a 7:00 p.m. restart, a more suitable time for an audience. You have the entire day and the early part of the night to finish the race. 

As much as NASCAR wants to get the race in and not force the teams to spend an extra day in Daytona, I think this answers the question of what the course of action should be if the race has been delayed in its early stages and that is move the race to Monday night. We had identical situations in 2020 and 2021. One was forced to run on Monday, the other tried to get in on Sunday. Monday won where it matters most and after the ghastly television number in 2021, both series and broadcaster knows not to repeat that choice in 2022.

If NASCAR and Fox don't want to start the race at 1:00 p.m., I think there is a middle ground in a 2:15 p.m. start time. The race will finish as twilight descends on the 2.5-mile speedway but still provides a little more wiggle room in case of a delay. 

The rain was uncooperative on the first weekend of the season, but it didn't matter on the second weekend of the season, as the three national touring series took to the road course and the Truck race on Friday night started in damp conditions. With the rain subsiding in the opening laps, the track would be slow but dry out through the night. The only problem is the improving conditions did lead to improved racing. In fact, the best portion of the race was the first stage when the track was damp and required wet weather tires. 

After running 20 of the first 23 laps under green flag conditions, 17 of the final 28 laps were under yellow flag conditions. The final five green flag runs were all only one lap in length. At two hours, 44 minutes and 46 seconds it is the longest race in Truck Series history. Of those two hours, 44 minutes and 46 seconds, about 67% of it was under caution. 

NASCAR has tried a lot of things over the last 20 years. It is time for NASCAR to adopt a time limit for road course races, specifically when it rains. With the series expanding its road course racing to previously unfathomable heights, it is time to do what every other road course series does. The Truck Series has four road course races this season. The chances of another wet race for the Truck Series are high. If NASCAR is willing to screw around and throw arbitrary cautions in the middle of the race for "the sake of the show" then it should have no problem instituting a time limit for the sake of the show. 

There is no point racing to a set distance in the wet. It is a futile effort when the average speed is 67 mph. A time limit gets us to the point. It doesn't drag out proceedings. NASCAR is getting nowhere with races carrying on for an hour longer than they should have gone. With the increase in road course races I think this is a good time to test out a time limit for wet races. Cap it at an hour and 45 minutes for the Trucks, two hours for the Grand National Series and two hours and 20 minutes for the Cup Series. Time limits would at least add a little urgency to these races. We can figure out how to distribute stage points later, but NASCAR has to consider it because dragged out affairs where the field can only complete one green flag lap in each run is not sustainable if you hope to attract new viewerships and keep them engaged. 

Like most years leaving Daytona in February, there are a lot of questions and thoughts about what lies ahead for this season and beyond. How NASCAR defines its relationship with time is one of them in 2021.

Champions From the Weekend

The #26 G-Drive Racing Aurus 01-Gibson of René Binder, Ferdinand Habsburg and Ye Yifei clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with finishes of second and fourth at Abu Dhabi.

The #23 United Autosports Ligier-Nissan of Wayne Boyd, Manuel Maldonado and Rory Penttinen clinched the ALMS LMP3 championship with a victory in the season finale at Abu Dhabi, the team's third victory of the season. The #9 Nielsen Racing Ligier-Nissan of Colin Noble and Anthony Wells won the first race at Abu Dhabi. 

The #99 Herberth Motorsport Porsche of Ralf Bohn, Alfred Renauer and Robert Renauer clinched the ALMS GT championship with finishes of second and fifth from Abu Dhabi.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about the Asian Le Mans Series champions, but did you know...

Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Cup race on the Daytona road course, his first career victory. Ty Gibbs won the Grand National Series race on debut. Ben Rhodes won his second consecutive Truck race to open the season.

The #28 Jota Sport Oreca-Gibson of Sean Gelael and Tom Blomqvist swept the Asian Le Mans Series races from Abu Dhabi. The #40 GPX Racing Porsche of Julien Andlauer, Alain Ferté and Axcil Jefferies won the first race in GT and the #57 Kessel Racing with Car Guy Ferrari of Mikkel Jensen, Takeshi Kimura and Côme Ledogar won the second race in GT.

Cooper Webb won the Supercross race in Orlando, his second consecutive victory and third of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend

NASCAR wraps up its Florida fling at Homestead.

The World Rally Championship will contest the Arctic Rally - Finland. 

Formula E opens its season with two night races in Saudi Arabia. 

Supercars begins 2021 where it finished 2020, at Bathurst, but this is a sprint weekend and not an endurance classic.

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Carlin

Many IndyCar teams have already sorted out their 2021 plans, but one has confirmed nothing, and we wait for Carlin to confirm its first driver let alone its entire lineup. We have an idea what we will see, but not enough to engrave it in stone. 

We expect Carlin mainstay Max Chilton to return for his four seasons with the organization. After competing full-time and semi-regularly, we are not sure the extent of Chilton's role. In 2020, he ran all the road and street courses and Indianapolis. In place of Chilton, Conor Daly competed in the remaining oval races and made Carlin into a sleeper. 

That entire dynamic could be blown up this season. We will preview this team as best we can knowing it could be thrown for a loop at any point over the two months between now and the Barber season opener.

2020 Carlin Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 6th (Texas)

Poles: 1 (Iowa I)

Championship Finishes: 17th (Conor Daly - non-Indianapolis ovals only), 22nd (Max Chilton)

2021 Drivers:

Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet

After stepping away from ovals in 2019, Chilton committed to the road and street courses in 2020 and was willing to attempt the Indianapolis 500 again. After all the schedule alterations, Chilton's schedule was set for nine races. 

There was an encouraging start to the season with Chilton qualifying tenth for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The race went in a different direction, as he slid back to 16th. He ran two mundane races at Road America with finishes of 17th and 15th before taking a month off before his Indianapolis 500 return. 

While the team won pole position at Iowa and had two encouraging races, speed was difficult to find at Indianapolis. He qualified 30th, but he stayed in the race and was fast enough to stay on the lead lap. He couldn't do much more than that and was 17th. 

He returned at Mid-Ohio and qualified 12th in the first race but dropped to 16th. He went from 18th to 13th in the second Mid-Ohio race. A top ten finish came painfully close in the first Harvest Grand Prix race. After qualifying ninth, Chilton spent much of the race in tenth or on the cusp of tenth, but he finished 11th. The second race saw him slide back to familiar territory, 18th on the grid and 19th at the checkered flag. 

For the St. Petersburg finale, he rounded out the grid in 24th position, but went forward with some help from strategy and attrition. He was one of the biggest movers in the race but ended up 12th and again shy of a top ten result.

Numbers to Remember:

100: Chilton completed 100% of his possible laps in 2020, 800 of 800 laps.

39: Consecutive races without a top ten finish

26: Consecutive starts running at the finish.

90.14: Percentage of races running at the finish in Chilton's IndyCar career (64 of 71 starts).

Predictions/Goals:

Doesn't Chilton just want a top ten finish? Something respectable that at least fills the stat sheet and he can brag about? 

Chilton hasn't been poor, and you would think someone with his finishing record would have one day where he at least finishes tenth. IndyCar is littered with drivers who pull out a random top ten finish. He has his close calls, but this has to be the year it finally comes through. 

From looking at Carlin's oval results, the speed is there. It hasn't translated equally to the road/street course schedule. This is a capable team and has made strides since its first season. I hope Carlin sticks with it because it is making ground. It might be taking longer than the team would have hoped, but it has a good thing going. 

We aren't entirely sure of Carlin's 2021 plans. We expect Chilton to be back with a similar schedule as 2020, but with there being only four oval races, I would say he should just return to full-time. If he is running Indianapolis, then he shouldn't be that concerned about Gateway and he could probably make it through Texas. It is clear his oval ability is behind most. He failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 in 2019 and he was at the tail of the field in 2020. If there had been bumping, he likely would have been sweating it and forced the team to have gone more aggressive with its setup, which could have positioned him to fail to make the race in successive seasons. 

It's ironic that a man's whose only Indy Lights victory was at Iowa; whose best IndyCar finish was fourth in the Indianapolis 500 and who has his top two starting positions in IndyCar come on oval is struggling with oval pace. It has just been the case for Chilton. It seems to be mental more than anything else.

Three races are a tough sell. With how Conor Daly has raced the last two years for this team, unless Chilton commits to a full season, they should bring Daly back. He made that team a serious contender and the team should not let that go. Daly has gotten Carlin closer to victory than any other driver in the team's three seasons. The oval pace shown suggests Carlin needs to enter two cars for Indianapolis, especially if Chilton does decide to run it. Chilton limits the team to a mid-pack result at Indianapolis, but Carlin can put together a car good enough for the top ten. Daly will be out of the mix because of his Ed Carpenter Racing commitments, but with the right driver Carlin could haves its best Indianapolis 500 in 2021.

One of the team's goal has to be returning to two full-time teams. That requires money and it is tougher to attract drivers during this time. We know the interest is there from last season. We knew Felipe Nasr was going to get a spin and Sérgio Sette Câmara was a rumored possibility. I think the one thing holding Carlin back is it hasn't been able to run two stable cars for each of the last two seasons. If this team can find that steady driver with steady sponsorship it could be to Chevrolet what Meyer Shank Racing has been to Honda. 

What does Chilton need to do in 2021?

Get at least one top ten finish. 

Qualify in the second round of qualifying at least once. 

Finish ahead of his starting position in at least half his starts.

Complete as many laps as possible again. 

What does Carlin need to do in 2021?

Get Conor Daly for the other three oval races if Chilton is not full-time. 

If Daly is not available, call the likes of J.R. Hildebrand, Oliver Askew, Spencer Pigot or Carlos Muñoz for the ovals. I know Muñoz's career has been stunted because of lack of sponsorship but this is a funded car with Gallagher sponsorship for those races. Is there anyone better than Muñoz for this seat and a second ride at the Indianapolis 500? Someone needs to give Trevor Carlin Muñoz's number.

Begin the process of re-establishing a second full-time team. 

Find one of the eight-dozen drivers with Carlin ties who can fill that seat and overachieve. 

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Dale Coyne Racing

We have reached our always interesting IndyCar Team Preview, Dale Coyne Racing. 

Last year, the team saw sophomore Santino Ferrucci paired with rookie Álex Palou, who was transitioning from Japan's Super Formula series. Both drivers showed flashes of speed, but neither stringed together a complete season and both drivers finished outside the top ten in the championship. 

DCR will shuffle the deck and have a different set of drivers from its 2020 season, but one is a familiar face. After sitting out the 2020 season, Ed Jones is set to return to IndyCar competition. Jones' teammate is a familiar face on the international level, and that is Romain Grosjean, who will attempt all the road and street courses as of now. The door is open for a few other drivers to cycle through the team and Dale Coyne Racing has a new partner, as Rick Ware Racing will have a hand operating the second car in the organization. 

2020 Dale Coyne Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 3rd (Road America II)

Poles: 0

Championship Finishes: 13th (Santino Ferrucci), 16th (Álex Palou)

2021 Drivers:

Ed Jones - #18 SealMasters Honda

Jones' 2020 season did not happen. 

He planned to drive an Audi in the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters, but when the pandemic hit Jones was unable to travel from his native United Arab Emirates to Germany and the rest of Europe and he lost his ride. 

After missing an entire year, Jones returned to competition in the Gulf 12 Hours in January, but his race lasted only 26 laps in the 2 Seas Motorsports McLaren. He made his debut in the 24 Hours of Daytona week later driving a Ferrari for Scuderia Corsa in the GT Daytona class with Ryan Briscoe, Marcos Gomes and Bret Curtis. That race lasted longer than 26 laps for Jones, but the team still retired after completing 676 laps, good enough for 14th in class. 

Jones has 47 IndyCar starts having driven for Dale Coyne Racing as a rookie in 2017 and he won rookie of the year that season. He then moved to Chip Ganassi Racing in 2018 and Ed Carpenter Racing in 2019. The best finish of his IndyCar career was third on three occasions, the 2017 Indianapolis 500, Long Beach 2018 and the second Belle Isle race in 2018.

Numbers to Remember:

5: Top ten finishes in his first ten IndyCar starts, all with Dale Coyne Racing.

9: Top ten finishes in his last 37 IndyCar starts (seven with DCR, 17 with Chip Ganassi Racing and 13 with Ed Carpenter Racing)

1: Lap led in his career. It was during a pit cycle at Texas in 2018.

5: Consecutive seasons with at least one podium finish for Dale Coyne Racing.

9: Consecutive seasons with at least one top five finish for Dale Coyne Racing.

Predictions/Goals:

At least look as good as he did in his first two IndyCar season. 

Jones was a hot prospect in 2017. Everyone was astonished what he did in his first ten races with Dale Coyne Racing. We all thought it was a matter of time before a larger team picked him up, and sure enough, Ganassi did. He wasn't Ganassi's first or second choice, so when Jones put up average results and the driver Ganassi wanted became available (Felix Rosenqvist), Ganassi took no time making the change. 

There comes a point when a driver need consistency to achieve results and three teams in three years is not what is best for a driver's development. Dale Coyne Racing is not the same Dale Coyne Racing that Jones experienced in 2017, but this is a reset to his career. 

In recent years, we are accustomed to drivers performing above average for Dale Coyne Racing. We are used to DCR picking up a victory or putting a driver on the podium. Jones has even been that driver. Even with all that success, DCR is still a small team. The team has not seen some great expansion over the last ten years. It continues to be the humble Illinois team punching above its weight. 

A good year would be Jones keeping the team between 13th and 17th in the championship. That is nothing to brag about but a driver in that territory will have a few respectable days. He will get six to eight top ten finishes, but he could also pick up a top five finish or two. 

What does Jones need to do in 2021?

Make it to the second round of qualifying in least half the races with at least one Fast Six appearance.

Finish on the lead lap in at least 13 races. 

Be the top DCR finisher in at least seven road/street course races.

Romain Grosjean - #51 Dale Coyne Racing/Rick Ware Racing Honda

Grosjean wrapped up his tenth season in Formula One in 2020. It was his fifth with the Haas F1 Team and it proved to be one of the toughest of his career. 

He started outside the top 15 in 12 of his 15 starts with nine finishes outside the top 15. Grosjean was running at the finish of 12 consecutive races from the Styrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola. Despite that run, Grosjean picked up only one points scoring finish, a ninth at the Eifel Grand Prix at the Nürburgring. 

Grosjean's season ended in a harrowing accident in the Bahrain Grand Prix when his car split the Armco barrier and burst into flames. Grosjean spent 27 seconds in the fire before emerging without a racing boot and eyebrows scorched from his face. He had severe burns to his hands, but no other significant injuries. His burns would prevent him from taking part in the final two races of the season. 

Two points were the fewest Grosjean had scored when he had contested majority of the races. He ended his career with 179 starts, ten podium finishes, 391 points and one fastest lap. His ten podium finishes are the fourth-most in Formula One history for a driver without a victory. Only Nick Heidfeld, Stefan Johansson and Chris Amon had more. 

Numbers to Remember:

3,550: Days between Grosjean's last victory in an open-wheel car at the Hungaroring in the GP2 Series on July 30, 2011 and the Barber season opener. That is nine years, eight months and 19 days.

1: Victory in a Renault Clio in an Andros Trophy race, an ice racing series, in December 2016.

4: Former Grosjean teammates have raced in IndyCar (Charlie Kimball, Luca Filippi, Fernando Alonso and Esteban Gutiérrez)

Predictions/Goals:

Formula One drivers do not walk into IndyCar and make it look easy. Rubens Barrichello was 11th in the championship in his lone IndyCar season in 2012, respectable, but with only two top five finishes and three laps led, it was far from Barrichello's Ferrari days. Max Chilton spent a year in Indy Lights before entering IndyCar and in 71 IndyCar starts he has only one top five finish. Takuma Sato has spent over a decade in IndyCar and has only three times finished in the top ten of the championship with his best result being seventh. 

There is enough evidence that proves the back of the Formula One grid is not automatically superior to the entire IndyCar grid. 

Grosjean will have a new car to learn on new tracks and while still recovering from burned hands. He will do it all with one of the smallest teams in IndyCar. Let's not write off Grosjean as some kind of bust if he is only picking up top ten finishes and not threatening for a race victory. 

I do believe we will see Grosjean have some strong days where everything clicks. That doesn't mean he will qualify fourth and finish third after leading eight laps. That could mean qualifying ninth and finishing seventh. There will also be days where he is lost because the track is out of his element and he isn't getting a feel of the tires and the dampers are off. 

As much as people will push back, Grosjean isn't some schlub. He will figure it out and I would expect his average finish in the second half of his season to be better than his first half, similar to what we saw from Barrichello in 2012. Could Grosjean be the next driver to pull out a victory in a Dale Coyne Racing entry? It will be a mighty task in his rookie season, but Carlos Huertas won for Coyne as a rookie. If that can happen Grosjean can definitely win a race as a rookie.

What does Grosjean need to do in 2021?

Pick up at least one top five finish. 

Be the top DCR finisher in at least half his starts. 

Be the top French finisher at least once. 

Finish in the top twenty of the championship.

Cody Ware - #51 Dale Coyne Racing/Rick Ware Racing Honda

While not confirmed, Ware took a spin in this car during a test session at Sebring in February, and it is believed he will make a few starts in an IndyCar in 2021, whether that is in a third car for the team or in the oval races Grosjean does not run. 

A second-generation driver and son of a car owner, Ware has sporadic experience in a race car, mostly in stock car competitions. He did race for his father's Rick Ware Racing in the 2019-20 Asian Le Mans Series and won the LMP2 Am championship with two victories and two runner-up finishes in four races. The class featured four cars in two races and two cars in the other two. He was fourth in the LMP2 class in this year's 24 Hours of Daytona, a more impressive result. 

In NASCAR, Ware has not competed full-time in any series, though he does plan on running full-time in the Cup Series in 2021. He has two Daytona 500 starts with his best finish being 21st this year. Last year, he picked up his first top ten finish in one of NASCAR's three national touring series when he was seventh in the NASCAR Grand National Series race on the Charlotte roval. 

Numbers to Remember:

3: Open-wheel races in his career, all in the now-defunct NASCAR Southern Modified Tour, the last one coming in the 2014 season opener.

53: Combined starts in NASCAR's three national touring series with his first start coming in 2014.

8: Lead lap finishes in those 53 NASCAR starts.

Predictions/Goals:

We don't know if Ware will be in this car. It is difficult to see how he will run a handful of IndyCar races along with a full NASCAR Cup season. 

The Texas doubleheader conflicts with the Kansas Cup race. The Indianapolis 500 is possible, and he could do The Double or skip the Coca-Cola 600. Gateway is a Saturday night race, the night before the Cup race at Michigan. The Belle Isle doubleheader has also been mentioned as an opportunity for him because that is NASCAR All-Star weekend at Texas and a non-points race, meaning there are no consequences for missing that race. If he does run Belle Isle, he will likely be in a third DCR entry, as Jones and Grosjean would both be entered for that event.

I am setting the bar low for Ware should he run. His testing times at the Sebring were comparable to Jimmie Johnson's, but I am not sure what he would do on an oval. We're not sure he would qualify for the Indianapolis 500. He is too inexperienced as an open-wheel driver to gauge where he would rank. He could significantly struggle on the ovals and lead IndyCar to pulling him for his own good or he could have a car stop properly and end up 25th on the grid for the Indianapolis 500. We need more information.

It sounds like Ware will not be the oval driver for the #51 Honda, but it does sounds like he could run the Indianapolis 500. There is a chance Grosjean could run Gateway. There might even be a sliver of hope Grosjean will run all the ovals and the entire season. In all likelihood, we will see another driver in the #51 Honda for some races. It will be at most four races. Who does DCR take? Does a veteran like Oriol Servià get a shot? Does a young driver like Spencer Pigot, Oliver Askew or Gabby Chaves get a call? Do we see a Pietro Fittipaldi or RC Enerson fill in? Could Zach Veach or Tristan Vautier pair the oval races with his sports car program? 

If Grosjean decides to sample Gateway, it is only three races, one of which is Indianapolis, but that is a tough sell, especially for someone like Pigot, Askew, Fittipaldi, Enerson and Chaves. All those drivers have full-time aspirations. I don't they want to get typecast as an IndyCar part-timer or substitute.  

It has already been a fascinating offseason for Dale Coyne Racing and could prove to get more interesting over the two months between now and the Barber season opener.

What does Ware/whomever else drives for Dale Coyne Racing need to do in 2021?

Not wreck race cars.

For Ware, definitely not wreck race cars.

For anyone else, pick up at least one top ten finish.

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

Musings From the Weekend: We Are Who We Are

Michael McDowell won the Daytona 500... so that's something. Fernando Alonso suffered a broken jaw after an automobile hit him while cycling in Switzerland. The Asian Le Mans Series completed half of its season in two days.  Charlie Kimball has himself a ride for the Indianapolis 500. Logan Sargeant, the American closest to Formula One, will not return to Formula Three or move up to Formula Two, and his career could be over. Marc Márquez is finally on the mend. Mazda is withdrawing from IMSA's DPi class at the end of the season. J.R. Hildebrand could be taking an IndyCar to the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb, which we will need to discuss later. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

We Are Who We Are

Since about 2008, you can't grow unless you never existed. 

I have been watching the world spin over this 21st century, an age of increased global connectivity where everyone spent the first 20 years fighting for an audience on a different continent and a fifth of the way through this century it feels like nothing has changed, especially in the motorsports world.

Has any series grown? Most series have shrunk.

Formula One is still on top, but a combination of increased pay TV broadcasters around the world and general malaise about the world championship has seen the audience decrease compared to the Michael Schumacher years and the late 2000s. 

NASCAR has fallen to where it was 25 years ago after putting up incredible numbers in the early 2000s. 

IndyCar is still where it was, but that's not a great place. On its best days, it gets a million people to watch, but for the most part it is a few hundred thousand viewers watching a race. 

The one series that has grown is Formula E, but that didn't exist until 2014. It gets to brag about the number of manufactures it has in the series, all the new venues visited, and all the people watching the series because not relatively long ago it wasn't in existence. Everything was at zero. Any gain was going to be significant.

The last large influx of viewers will be Danica Patrick's Indianapolis 500 debut in 2005. Patrick's historic qualifying result captured attention of an early Internet world where most still turned on the television to learn about the day's events after eating dinner and didn't have countless programming options from a variety of streaming platforms. 

It will be the last grand conversion in motorsports and in the 15 years since that day we have seen plenty who caught the fever over that Memorial Day weekend turn their attention to something else and haven't looked back. It doesn't even meet the definition of a fad.

Plenty will celebrate any growth that happens, but single-digit gains aren't worth an emotional output. A two-percent gain is not a shift in the tide, but rather a wave with a little more wind behind it. It might jostle you but it is not going to shift the landscape. It is not a sign of change. It is just more of the same. 

There is no sign of attention turning anything soon. 

In the United States, football will remain king. You may point to a decrease in viewership for the most recent Super Bowl but 96 million still watched, likely more than ten times what the Daytona 500 drew seven days later and lightyears ahead of what the Indianapolis 500 could possibly draw. The last 16 Super Bowl have all drawn over 90 million viewers. Trust me, football is fine. 

Basketball will remain incredibly popular with children wearing shoes branded after LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Michael Jordan, a man who last played a decade before some of these kids sporting a Jumpman logo were even born. Basketball is the one sport that has gained international traction, and hopefully this July the best players will battle for an Olympic gold medal and we will see if the United States can maintain its stranglehold or if the likes of Spain, France, Argentina or Serbia will come out on top. 

Baseball has lost its national allure, but regionally it remains a common thread for many communities. It is a summer gathering place for the generations. Some fanbases get to celebrate into autumn when night games force spectators to bundle up while gnawing fingernails with each pitch. 

Hockey is in a similar boat as IndyCar. Big enough to survive but not thrive. While football, basketball and baseball make billions, hockey remains in the poorhouse... relatively speaking, making hundreds of millions of dollars. 

The one exception to the 21st century American stunted growth theory could be soccer. It is a fragmented sport with all the various leagues and competitions around the world. International competitions remain a draw and the United States national teams, men and women, are rallying points during each World Cup and Olympic Games. After decades of ignoring the invite, the United States has finally joined the party. It sees the glory that comes with this global game. Success makes you a household name from the Atlanta to Addis Ababa for generations. 

I have watched motorsports try to mean more culturally, and yet never connected with the greater population. It is out of grasp of the common person. Few stumble into racing, and with even fewer getting to participate in it, people cannot bond with it. Billions grow up kicking a soccer ball around and tossing a baseball. They play it on the youth level, some never exceed a recreational level, but they can empathize with the grandest stages in those sports. They have swung and missed on a curveball and walked back to the dugout disappointed. They have been cleared out on a slide tackle, left in a daze while play continues in the opposite direction. 

When it comes to a race car, it is fantasy. Most have driven a car, but not like that, not in competition. The greatest competition most have behind a steering wheel is crawling at five miles per hour in search for a parking spot during the Christmas season. 

The automobile has changed culturally. It is no longer a symbol of freedom and exploration. It is now another appliance no different from a refrigerator or washing machine that has a function and an expectation to work. It is a responsibility with a goal of keeping insurance premiums low, and increasingly requires an individual to take into consideration the carbon footprint left behind from its use. 

People don't love their appliances. Most of the time the greatest response an appliance draws is frustration when it doesn't work, whether that is a fridge whose ice maker has crapped out or a gaming system that experiences a technical glitches. We fill our lives with items that we expect will let us down, taking for granted the 99% of the time they actually work. 

Motorsports hasn't adapted well to these times and it will continue to struggle over the next 20 years. A fraction doesn't want to follow the automobile industry as production shifts to more electric vehicles. Not changing will only make motorsports more obsolete. It will soon become even more disconnected from the present and the average person that they will not understand why anyone would participate... like Civil War reenactments. 

The slide in popularity does not cause people to embrace change but bunker into an identity that was suitable 50 years, but not today. The fear is change will only make it worse, not better, though the status quo is no longer sufficient. 

People celebrate the 1960s but ignore what the 1960s meant to motorsports. It was an era of changes and chances. The cars didn't look the same. They didn't race the same. There wasn't this expectation that an IndyCar had to look a certain way, or a stock car had to sound a certain way. An automobile would turn heads and if it won on the stopwatch it became the favorite. Now, a car could be five miles per hour slower than what is setting records, but people get lost in the sound and the aesthetic of the slower vehicle and it is heralded as better though where it counts begs to differ. 

Yes, motorsports cost money. Manufactures and privateers don't throw around money like they once did at improvements and developing a better vehicle. Everyone is afraid of motorsports spending itself into extinction but looking for the cheapest available option might lead to the same outcome. 

If motorsports wants to continue operating with this one mindset that a race must look a certain way and the cars must look a certain way and the cars are powered a certain way, it will continue to be stuck where it has been for the last 15 years and slowly sink more out of sight. You can only change the label so many times before you have to realize the packaging is not the issue. The product is. 

However, if motorsports embrace the future and becomes something that turns heads and inspires the next generation to take risks, it might rise out of its early 21st century funk and find it has life for years to come and into the 22nd century. 

Champion From the Weekend

Matthew Payne won the Toyota Racing Series championship after winning three of four races from Circuit Chris Amon. Billy Frazer won the other race from Circuit Chris Amon.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Michael McDowell, but did you know...

The #26 G-Drive Racing Aurus 01-Gibson of René Binder, Ferdinand von Habsburg and Ye Yifei swept the Asian Le Mans Series races from Dubai. The #23 United Autosport Ligier-Nissan of Wayne Boyd, Manuel Maldonado and Rory Penttinen swept the races in the LMP3 class. The #99 Herberth Motorsport Porsche of Ralf Bohn, Alfred Renauer and Robert Renauer won in the GT class in race one and the #40 GPX Racing Porsche of Julien Andlauer, Alain Ferté and Axcil Jefferies won in the GT class in race two.

Cooper Webb won in the Supercross race at Orlando, his second victory of the season.

Austin Cindric won the NASCAR Grand National Series race at Daytona. Ben Rhodes won the Truck race. Kyle Busch won the Busch Clash. Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon split the Daytona 500 qualifying race. 

Coming Up This Weekend

NASCAR remains in Daytona but will run on the road course for the second round of 2021.

Supercross remains in Orlando for another weekend.

Asian Le Mans Series ends its season with a doubleheader in Abu Dhabi.

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Ed Carpenter Racing

The sixth IndyCar Team Preview takes us to Ed Carpenter Racing, which saw an upward swing in results last year after a three-year lull following the departure of Josef Newgarden. Ed Carpenter remained in his oval-only role, but Conor Daly was brought in for the road and street courses. Rinus VeeKay took over the full-time role in the #21 Chevrolet.

While VeeKay's season started with two accidents in Texas, he was the leading ECR driver all year and emerged as IndyCar's top rookie. He picked up his first top five finish in his second start, he was the top ECR qualifier in the Indianapolis 500 and he picked up his first pole position and first podium finish in the first Harvest Grand Prix race. Carpenter was fifth in the season opener, but his next best result was 15th. Daly never finished in the top ten with ECR in 2020. All three drivers will return in their same roles for 2021.

2020 Ed Carpenter Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 3rd (Harvest Grand Prix I)

Poles: 1 (Harvest Grand Prix I)

Championship Finishes: 14th (Rinus VeeKay), 17th (Conor Daly), 25th (Ed Carpenter)

2021 Drivers:

Ed Carpenter - #20 Sonax/Air Force Chevrolet

Carpenter opened his 2020 season with an encouraging race in Texas, moving up from 13th to fifth through some strong pit stops. Piggybacking off his runner-up finish at Gateway to end his 2019 season, this result gave Carpenter consecutive top five finishes for the first time in his career. The first night of the season was his best night of the season. 

An unremarkable 15th in the first Iowa race preceded him getting into the wall before the halfway point in the second Iowa race. He qualified 16th for the Indianapolis 500 after three consecutive front row starts and his race was effectively over after lap one. Contact with Zach Veach damaged his suspension, bringing Carpenter to pit road for repairs. He would continue in the race and finished 13 laps down in 26th. 

Gateway could not save his season. He was caught in the start crash in race one and never had the pace in race two, ending his season in 21st, three laps down.

Numbers to Remember:

18.333: Average finish in 2020, his worst average finish in a season.

16.333: Average starting position in 2020, his worst since committing to an oval-only schedule in 2014.

0: Laps led in 2020, his first season without a lap led since 2007.

Predictions/Goals:

Carpenter's horrendous 2020 season positions himself for an almost guaranteed improvement in results. He could finish 15th in his four starts and that would be a notable gain. 

There will be only four oval races, the fewest on the schedule since Carpenter started his oval only schedule. There isn't any pattern in Carpenter's seasons. It doesn't matter if the season has five or six ovals.  An extra oval race doesn't make or break whether or not it is a good season or not. The one notable thing is in four seasons where Indianapolis is not his first race, Carpenter has three top ten finishes. In the three years Indianapolis has been his first race, he has one top ten finish. 

He will get two cracks at Texas before Indianapolis and then he will have two months off before his final start. 

I think Carpenter needs to be in the top ten of oval points. What's the point of Carpenter doing this if he is just going to be the 22nd best driver or even as low as 14th? He has been heralded as some oval specialist and yet he hasn't won since 2014. He has only two podium finish and three top five finishes since 2015. He is the threat that never comes through. His laps led in each of the last six seasons are one, one, five, 66, seven and zero. That is 80 laps in 34 starts. Only three of those laps have been at tracks other than Indianapolis. 

Carpenter has to do more. He has to take that occasional great Indianapolis run and have it at Texas or Gateway. But Carpenter is terrible at Gateway. In five starts, his finishes are 21st, 12th, second, 20th and 21st. That second is only because of a late caution that caught all the leaders a lap down and dropped Carpenter into the top three over the final 44 laps. 

I think this is the make-or-break year for Carpenter. He turns 40 on March 3. He can just run Indianapolis and have two full-time cars with two drivers going for the championship. We have been doing the split driver thing for seven years and other than the first year I am not sure it has been a successful experiment. If the results are more of the same, averaging a finish of 15th or worse, it is time to end it.

What does Carpenter need to do in 2021? 

Average a top ten finish.

Lead laps somewhere other than Indianapolis.

Run mildly competitive at Gateway

Conor Daly - #20 Air Force Chevrolet

Daly spent the oval portion of the 2020 with Carlin, so his first start with Ed Carpenter Racing was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He stuck to the two-stop strategy and was looking good for a top ten finish before he lost the pace in the closing laps and dropped to 12th. 

Contact with Patricio O'Ward knocked Daly out of the first Road America race and front wing damage early in the second race sullied that day. After two inspiring outings with Carlin in Iowa, Daly's Indianapolis 500 was in a third ECR car and an overaggressive restart led to his spin in turn four knocking him out of the race prior to the halfway point.

He qualified fourth for the first Mid-Ohio race, but he kept going backwards and he lost a top ten again in the closing laps, finishing in 13th. There was no recovery in the second Mid-Ohio race, as he started and finished 16th. Back at Indianapolis for the Harvest Grand Prix, Daly spent race one in the middle of the pack and finished 12th again. He spent the second race a little further back, ending up 20th and Daly closed his season with a 17th at St. Petersburg.

Numbers to Remember:

13: Consecutive road/street course races without a top ten finish.

1,302: Days between Daly's most recent road/street course top ten at Sonoma 2017 and the 2021 season opener at Barber.

17: As in a 17th-place championship finish in 2020, Daly's best IndyCar championship finish.

Predictions/Goals:

As much as Carpenter needs a season that justifies keeping up the dueling driver situation in the #20 Chevrolet, Daly is auditioning for the full-time gig. Carpenter doesn't keep the road course drivers around for long. Mike Conway got a season. Luca Filippi got a season. Spencer Pigot got two. Jordan King got one. Ed Jones got one. 

Daly is getting a second chance, but history does not suggest there will be a third. That is why his results have to be sensational. He cannot go another season without a top ten finish on a road/street course. He has got to keep up with Rinus VeeKay. VeeKay trounced Daly in his rookie season. And Daly is no longer a kid. 

Daly has 64 starts to his name. He is 29 years old. He is no longer "the guy who just needs a chance." This is his chance. He is pushing 30 and over 75 starts. Do you know how many drivers took 65 starts or more to get their first career victory? The answer is 15. If Daly does not win a race in 2021 and the all 17 races are contested, he will have gone 81 races without a victory. Do you know how many drivers took more than 81 starts to get their first career victory? The answer drops to seven. 

I don't think Daly can win in 2021, not with ECR. If he returns to Carlin for the other three oval races his chances increase but are still low. From what we saw in 2020, the gap is too large for him to jump to the head of the pack. He has got to beat his teammate in championship, and he needs to beat VeeKay in every notable statistical category. Daly's number of top five finishes, top ten finishes, laps led, average finish, average starting position, championship finish and head-to-head victories have got to be better than VeeKay. 

I know Daly might not run three races, so he might lose out in some categories, but he has got to put up a fight for best ECR driver in 2021. He wasn't in that conversation at all in 2020.

What does Daly need to do in 2021?

Beat VeeKay. 

Get a career-best championship finish. 

Have an average finish below 14th. 

Rinus VeeKay - #21 Autogeek/Direct Supply Chevrolet

The start of the season is one VeeKay would like to have back. A practice accident within the first 40 minutes or so of the season left the team scrambling to make the race. Unable to qualifying, VeeKay started at the back of the grid and would have another accident 36 laps into his debut, leaving a concerning first impression. 

At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, VeeKay bounced back with an early commitment to the three-stop strategy and it got him into the top five. He showed good moments at Road America but ended up 13th and 14th in the two races. His second trip to an oval saw another accident, but this one was not his fault. Colton Herta launched himself over the back of VeeKay coming to a restart in the first Iowa race. He could not escape mistakes of others in race two, as a botched pit stop caused him valuable time.

VeeKay surprisingly led the ECR way at the Indianapolis 500, qualifying fourth. He had a good race, but another pit lane mistake, this time on his part, took him out of the running for Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year. He clipped a crew member, leading to an extended pit stop and a penalty. 

A strategic play at Gateway got him a sixth-place finish from 14th starting position in race one. He ran the same strategy in race two and went from 18th to fourth, which include a fierce battle with Colton Herta. A conservative strategy in the first Mid-Ohio race got him eighth, and he started and finished 11th in the second race.

Then came the Harvest Grand Prix. He took a surprise pole position and backed it up leading the first 15 laps. He did fall back but remained in the top five. In the closing stint, he had more speed than Herta and drove back up to third. There was a bit of a hangover for the second race, finishing 17th and spending the entire race out of the top ten. He made contact with Scott McLaughlin at St. Petersburg, setting him back to a 15th-place finish, but he still clinched 2020 IndyCar Rookie of the Year.

Numbers to Remember:

12: Times VeeKay was the top ECR finish win 14 races in 2020.

8: VeeKay is the eighth rookie of the year in 13 seasons since reunification to not finish in the top ten of the championship.

14.667: Average finish on ovals in 2020.

10.75: average finish on road/street courses in 2020.

Predictions/Goals:

For the first time since Josef Newgarden left the organization it felt like ECR had a driver it could fully trust in the field. ECR had plenty of drivers who showed flashes since the start of 2017 season, but VeeKay went a level higher in 2020. He won a pole position. He got a podium finish and three top five finishes. I don't think he is ready to win races yet, but you cannot complain if he repeated his rookie campaign in his sophomore season. 

VeeKay had some rough moments. Texas cannot be completely forgotten, and he also botched his Indianapolis 500 with a poor pit stop because of how he entered the pit stall. After his pole position and third in the first Harvest Grand Prix, he fell off the next day. Top drivers don't do that in doubleheader weekends. But for year one it was a damn fine start. 

The problem with ECR is it has been solidly in the middle of the championship since Newgarden left. J.R. Hildebrand was 15th in 2017. Spencer Pigot was 14th in his two full seasons in the #21 Chevrolet. VeeKay was 14th last year as well. I don't see VeeKay climbing up into the top ten of the championship. The team isn't there yet and VeeKay isn't that driver yet. 

Is he going to finish ahead of Scott Dixon? No. Josef Newgarden? No. Will Power? No. Simon Pagenaud? No. Colton Herta or Alexander Rossi? No and no. Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato? No and no. That leaves him finishing ninth at best and that is not taking into considering Arrow McLaren SP's two drivers in Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist, past champions Ryan Hunter-Reay and Sébastien Bourdais, the returning James Hinchcliffe and either of the other two full-time Ganassi drivers Marcus Ericsson and Álex Palou. 

I just listed 15 drivers and didn't even mention Jack Harvey, who could probably be a top ten championship contender, and that is VeeKay's competition just to get back to 14th in the championship let alone improve. You might think stagnation and VeeKay finishing 14th in the championship for a second consecutive year would show no growth, but that is an accomplishment in its own right when looking at this 2021 IndyCar grid.

What does VeeKay need to do in 2021?

At least finish 14th in the championship. 

At least finish ahead of Daly in championship.

Not have an accident at Texas. 

Pick up at least eight top ten finishes. 

Make the second round of qualifying at least seven times and the Fast Six at least three times. 

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

We are reaching the midway point of the IndyCar Team Previews and it is onto the fourth-best team in IndyCar: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. RLLR put both drivers in the top ten of the championship. The team won a race for a sixth consecutive season and it won the Indianapolis 500 for the second time in team history. 

Graham Rahal was the top RLLR driver in the championship in sixth and he picked up three podium finishes. Takuma Sato was seventh in the championship, his best championship finish in IndyCar and he won the Indianapolis 500 for the second time in four years. For the fourth consecutive season, RLLR will keep what is working for them with Rahal and Sato both returning for 2021. 

2020 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Season Review

Wins: 1 (Indianapolis 500)

Poles: 1 (Gateway II)

Championship Finishes: 6th (Graham Rahal), 7th (Takuma Sato)

2021 Drivers:

Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals Honda

The season did not start on a great note for Rahal, as an electrical issue kept him from rolling off on the grid at Texas and once his car was started, he was forced to serve a penalty for receiving work prior to the start of the race. This dropped him off the lead lap immediately and down to 17th when the checkered flag came out. 

On a two-stop strategy for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Rahal found himself in position for victory and he led 18 laps, but a mid-race caution allowed Scott Dixon to come out on top. Rahal was able to manage a runner-up finish. He had another strong run at Road America, finishing seventh in race one. In race two, he was caught in a first lap incident when Will Power knocked him off the course exiting turn three. 

He qualified at the rear of both Iowa races, but gained ground each night, going from 21st to 12th on Friday night and 19th to third in the Saturday night race. At Indianapolis, he probably had his best 500-mile race, going from eighth to third, but the glory went to his teammate. Gateway was a letdown, with two horrible days. The pace was not in the car and gearbox failure ended his first race early. In the second race, the team decided to use it as a test session. He ended up two laps down and was 20th, up three spots from his starting spot. 

Home again approved to be a comfort for Rahal, as he picked up a pair of fourth place finishes at Mid-Ohio. He followed that up with a pair of sevenths at the Harvest Grand Prix. St. Petersburg started off poorly with a 17th starting position, but he found himself in ninth at the final checkered flag of the season.

Numbers to Remember:

57: Starts since his last victory at Belle Isle in 2017.

14: Consecutive seasons with at least one lap led, every year of Rahal's career.

1: Season where Rahal has led 100 laps or more (110 in 2017).

6.5: Average championship finish over the last six seasons. 

13.125: Average championship finish over Rahal's first eight seasons.

Predictions/Goals:

After watching the last few seasons, I feel entirely comfortable saying Rahal will end up between sixth and tenth in the championship because that is where RLLR is at as a team. That team will put both car in the top ten of the championship and no one will dismiss it. Rahal is a top ten driver and RLLR is the fourth-best team in IndyCar. 

That doesn't mean Rahal can't do better. I think he can, and I think he will. He should have at least one victory from the last three years at a minimum. He probably should have had two or three victories. The pace is there, but things haven't clicked to get him back on the top step of the podium. 

He is due for that breakthrough. We haven't seen a repeat of 2015, where he was a championship-contender and deservedly so. Rahal's consistency could lift him to where one or two victories is all he needs to be in the championship conversation. As we have seen with his teammate, if he times those victories right and one of them happens to be a double points race, like the Indianapolis 500, that can get you an extra two or three positions in the championship. 

He will be a top ten driver, but can he break into the top five again? He can do it, but he has got to capitalize on his best days. He needs to win a Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He needs to take a car that is fourth on the grid and pull it up to first. He needs a dominant weekend where everyone is chasing him. Most importantly, on a weekend where RLLR shows both its cars are contenders, Rahal must be the leading car. Too often when both RLLR cars are in the top five, Rahal is losing the team battle.

What does Rahal need to do in 2021?

Win at least one race, preferably two. 

Minimize the bad days.

Lead 100 laps or more.

Qualify more in the top five.

Takuma Sato - #30 Panasonic/Mi-Jack Honda

Rahal might have had a disappointing season opener, but at least he got to race at Texas. Sato spun while on his qualifying run. Because of the one-day show format, Sato's team was unable to repair the car in time for the start, meaning for the first time in his IndyCar career, Sato missed a race. He had started every race of the 2010s but would miss the first race of the 2020s. 

He would string together four consecutive top ten finishes, but those were all nondescripts races, a run from 17th to tenth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, 15th to ninth and 12th to eighth at Road America and he actually fell from sixth to tenth in the first Iowa race. He tried to stop early and go long on his stints in the second Iowa race and it backfired, leaving him with a 21st-place finish.

Indianapolis might have been his best race in IndyCar. He qualified third and he spent almost the entire race in the top five. Sato paced himself. He did not make any aggressive moves, but struck late, jumping Scott Dixon through pit cycle. He controlled the final stages of the race and successfully defended a few of Dixon's attempts for the top spot. When Spencer Pigot spun exiting turn four, Sato was in the clear and took his second Indianapolis 500 victory.

The momentum continued into Gateway and he set himself up to have short final stint to the checkered flag in race one. This allowed him to claw back the deficit to the leaders and Sato made a brave pass on the outside of Patricio O'Ward for second entering turn one. He caught Dixon, but this time Dixon held on and took the victory with Sato in second. In race two, Sato again was in the top ten, but brushed the wall late to bring out a caution. He would still limp home in ninth. 

The season ended on a down note. Mid-Ohio continued to be one of his worst tracks, with finishes of 17th and 18th. He was 18th and 14th at the Harvest Grand Prix and ended the season with a top ten finish at St. Petersburg, but like the start of the season it was a nondescript tenth-place finish.

Numbers to Remember:

208: Oval points in 2020, third-most despite not starting the Texas race.

3: Top ten championship finishes in the last four seasons.

0: Top ten championship finishes in the prior seven seasons.

4: Consecutive seasons with a victory. 

4: Drivers have won a race in each of the last four seasons (Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Will Power and Sato).

Predictions/Goals:

Ever since Sato turned 40 years old, I have written something along the lines of "Sato is who he is, and he isn't going to win a championship." Ever since he has turned 40, Sato has become a better driver. He doesn't tear up equipment at the same rate he once did. He has found a balance between his speed and his aggression. It might be too late for that balance to lead to a championship, but it does regularly get him a victory and a top ten championship finish.

His problem now is there are places he just hasn't figured out and I doubt he ever will. Mid-Ohio is his bogey track. In 12 starts, his average finish is 15.9. He has finished outside the top fifteen in eight of those races. His one top five was in 2011. Though he has shown speed a Texas, the results do not match, with only three top ten finishes in 11 starts and an average finish of 13.4. He has finished 20th or worse in seven of 12 Toronto starts. 

Combine those tracks with his inevitable slump and he is almost limited to finishing seventh or eighth in the championship each year. His Indianapolis 500 victory inflated his 2020 championship position. If Indianapolis was not double points, he would have been 11th in the championship. He never ends seasons strong. Once we get ten or 11 races in, all his good days are gone. I know he has won Gateway and Portland when they were in the final leg of the season, but historically, he ends a year with four or five finishes outside the top ten. 

I don't see that changing. We can pencil Sato down for seven or eight top ten finishes, but then we have to accept there are going to be nine or tenth races where he is going to be stuck in 14th or he gets into the barrier and finishes 22nd. He can squeak out top ten championship finishes, but he is doing it on a thread. One result takes him from a career-best season to middle of the pack. 

What does Sato need to do in 2021?

End the season with at least three top ten finishes from five races. 

Get another victory and extend his streak to five consecutive years. 

Finish in the top ten at Mid-Ohio.

Finish ahead of his teammate in the championship. 

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Meyer Shank Racing

Our fourth IndyCar Team Preview takes us to another expanding organization, Meyer Shank Racing. MSR's first full season showed that team was up for the task. Jack Harvey put up the fifth-best qualifying average in 2020, ahead of the champion Scott Dixon and all the other Chip Ganassi Racing drivers, and Alexander Rossi. The race results did not always go the team's way, but the team showed it could compete with the big boys. 

Harvey will return and look to improve on 15th in the championship, but MSR will run two cars for about a third of the 2021 season with Hélio Castroneves joining the Ohio-based team. Castroneves will run at Barber, the Indianapolis 500, the August IMS road course race, Portland, Laguna Seca and Long Beach.

2020 Meyer Shank Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 6th (Harvest Grand Prix II)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 2nd (Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Road America I)

Championship Finish: 15th (Jack Harvey)

2021 Drivers:

Jack Harvey - #60 SiriusXM/AutoNation Honda

The season started with a new test for Harvey and MSR, Texas Motor Speedway, the team's first oval that wasn't Indianapolis. It was mostly a test of survival. Harvey did not show impressive speed, but he kept the car out of the barriers and was a lap down in 16th. 

The speed came over the next five races, qualifying on the front row for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Road America and picking up five consecutive top ten starts. Unfortunately, the race results did not follow. A poorly timed caution caught him out before a round of pit stops on the IMS road course and shuffled him out of a top five position. He had an accident in the first Road America race and contact at the start of the second race put him in a hole. 

He found his footing at Iowa of all places, spending both races mostly in the top ten with a pair of seventh place results the reward for all his effort. He started 20th for his fourth Indianapolis 500 start and went forward, ending up ninth, his best finish in the event. His top ten streak was snapped at Gateway, but he again showed attention-grabbing pace and could have picked up a top five in both races if it wasn't for cautions.

Harvey would score top ten finishes in three of the next four events between Mid-Ohio and the Harvest Grand Prix. His season finale was encouraging, and he was set for a top five finish before James Hinchcliffe made contact with Harvey under yellow, damaging Harvey's car and knocking him from the edge of the podium to three laps down in 19th. 

Numbers to Remember:

146: Oval points in 2020, ninth best in IndyCar.

8.785: Average starting position in 2020.

11: Top ten starts in 2020, tied for the third-most in 2020.

Predictions/Goals:

Harvey is a top ten championship contender. If it wasn't for that contact with Hinchcliffe in the season finale, he likely would have finished third or fourth and ended up 11th in the championship. St. Petersburg was one of five races where something out of Harvey's control cost him points. There were also at least five races, probably closer to eight races, where Harvey was fantastic in qualifying and the race result didn't match. If he can level out his race results with his qualifying pace in 2021, not only will he be in the top ten, but he could push for the top five in the championship. 

He needs top five finishes this season. With the pace he showed, he has got to be mixing it up with Dixon, Power, Newgarden and Herta. We saw in the 2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis that Harvey can contend for victories. That race has to happen again and multiple times this season. He has got to be in one of the top three or four positions, with a shot at victory and leading laps. 

This is still a small operation, no matter what kind of speed is shown. A single-car team is going to hit bumps in the road that most multi-car organizations glide over. MSR will have two cars in six races, but there are 11 other races where Harvey will fly unaccompanied and have no one to bounce problems off of. MSR is still working in partnership with Andretti Autosport, but there are limitations. 

If Harvey wins, I would not be surprised. I think he can get back to the podium and he should pick up a few top five finishes. He should shoot for four top five finishes and ten top ten finishes. 

What does Harvey need to do in 2021?

At least one top five finish, but preferability closer to four. 

At least one pole position. 

Top ten in the championship.

Hélio Castroneves - #06 Meyer Shank Racing Honda

Castroneves spent his 2020 season primarily in IMSA's Daytona Prototype international class driving for Acura Team Penske. That season could not have started any more poorly with a pair of last place finishes in class in the first two races and a seventh, the penultimate finisher in class in the third race at Sebring. 

In what otherwise would have been a championship-crushing string of results, Castroneves and co-driver Ricky Taylor erased that dismal opening with three consecutive victories. Castroneves and Taylor were then second at Petit Le Mans and won the penultimate round of 2020 at Laguna Seca and went into the finale with the championship lead. 

Despite the duo's comeback, misfortune was waiting at the 12 Hours of Sebring and early mechanical problems sent the team behind the wall. The #7 Acura would be able to return to the race but needed some help to hang onto the title. That help came. The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Cadillac suffered damage after contact with a Mazda and fell to seventh. The #31 Action Express Racing Cadillac had contact with the #6 Acura lead to a penalty and ends its championship fight. Castroneves and Taylor were last at Sebring but won the title by one point. 

Castroneves also made three IndyCar starts. He was 28th in Indianapolis 500 qualifying driving for Team Penske but worked his way up to 11th. He substituted for the unfit Oliver Askew at the Harvest Grand Prix at Arrow McLaren SP and he drove two lackluster races with results of 20th and 21st to show for it.

Numbers to Remember:

30: IndyCar victories, 11th all-time.

351: IndyCar starts, fourth all-time.

6.037: Laps led, fourth all-time.

9.491: Castroneves' average finish across the six tracks he will race at in 2021 in 57 career starts.

46: Castroneves turns 46 years old on May 10. 

Predictions/Goals:

I don't know if Castroneves is auditioning for a full-time spot in 2022 or if he is a bridge for MSR's expansion to two cars, but I think the goal is to be positively contributing to the organization. 

Prior to his switch to full-time sports car, Castroneves had finished in the top five of the IndyCar championship for six consecutive years. However, in those six seasons, he had only five victories. He was only the top Penske driver in one of those seasons. The one gripe against Castroneves over that time was he was constantly good, picking up fifth, sixth and seventh-place finishes, but he was not pulling off four podium finishes in six races. You knew he would be there, but you weren't expecting him to be the man to beat. 

I can't think Castroneves is going to walk in as a part-time competitor in a newer, single-car team and be a top ten finisher in majority of his starts. I can't see how he is going to beat Harvey at any of the five road/street courses. 

The obvious goal is to get that fourth Indianapolis 500 victory. It is possible with MSR. It is unlikely, but still possible. He will be attempting his 12th Indianapolis 500 since he won his third. He won three of his first nine Indianapolis 500 starts. I think it will be out of his grasp. A top ten showing at Indianapolis would be good enough and if he can get top ten finishes in half his starts, it will be a successful season. 

What does Castroneves need to do in 2021?

Have one more tremendous Indianapolis 500.

Be within three positions of Harvey at most of the road courses. 

Not tear up cars.

Show MSR it is capable of running two IndyCar programs.

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener.