Musings From the Weekend: Moving On

Petit Le Mans had a phenomenal conclusion. I guess blocking is now legal, so that will make things interesting. There were plenty of regulations broken at Interlagos. People are blindly devoted to insinuating sprint qualifying is working and fail to recognize the most interesting part was the one car starting at the rear of the field. The argument over best driver in the world rages on with no clear consensus on the answer just why everyone else is wrong. Thursday Night Blunder continues to be a highly entertaining science experiment. Ducati made history in the MotoGP finale, but a farewell was a bigger story of the weekend. Here is rundown of what got me thinking.

Moving On

Every career will come to an end, and this weekend saw the final MotoGP weekend for Valentino Rossi. 

After 432 grand prix weekends stretching back to the 1996 Malaysian Grand Prix weekend at the Shah Alam Circuit, Rossi called it a career with 115 grand prix victories, 235 podium finishes and nine world championships. 

I am not sure anyone imagined Rossi's career would make it all the way until 2021 when he made that first start. I am not sure anyone imagined Rossi's career would have gone this long when he won his ninth world championship in 2009. Most riders call it quits long before turning 40. Rossi blew past 40 and made it to 42 at the time of his final start. 

People have been preparing for this day for over a decade. I think the first time we had to seriously consider the end of Rossi's career was in 2010 when the Italian fractured his tibia in a practice accident ahead of the Italian Grand Prix at Mugello. The injury knocked him out of competition for four races, ending his hopes of a third consecutive championship. 

At that point he had just turned 31 years old, and it was then first time he had missed a grand prix in his career. After 230 consecutive starts, you look toward the end. Rossi had a historic career up to that point, arguably one of the greatest we had ever seen. It could have all ended that day in 2010 and we would have been grateful to have witnessed it. 

Mick Doohan retired at 34 years old, the year prior to Rossi's premier class debut. Eddie Lawson was also 34 years old when he stepped away. Kevin Schwantz was only 31 when he retired from grand prix competition and turned his attention to stock cars. Rossi had already shown Formula One interest in the early 2000s and he had a knack for rally racing. A second career looked highly likely for The Doctor. 

However, 11 years later, Rossi stuck to what made him famous, he won plenty more races, but never another championship though there were plenty of close calls. I don't think anyone anticipated Rossi would hang around this long, a career spanning four different decades with 22 seasons in the premier class. With all that we have seen, we must be comfortable moving on and MotoGP should feel comfortable heading into a Rossi-less future. 

Rossi held on one season too long. He is heading out 18th in the championship with his best finish being eighth. He was third in the championship in 2018 and seventh in 2019, but he had not won since the 2017 Dutch TT. That didn't feel like his final victory at the time. This is far from the fairy tale ending we had imagined. We spent two decades accustomed to Rossi being at the top. His career ending anywhere but there was once unfathomable and yet here we are. 

When the news first came out that Rossi was retiring at the end of the season, there was a common thought MotoGP would have been in trouble if Rossi had retired five years earlier. I am not sure I entirely agree with that, but there was a point where Rossi was MotoGP's one and only star. He carried grand prix motorcycle racing at the turn of the millennium at a time when the scene was void of a star. The Americans and Australians that had dominated the 1980s and 1990s were gone. For the first time in over 20 years, Europeans were positioned to control the world championship and Rossi not only took the flag, he charged away with it. 

At a time when Michael Schumacher and Ferrari dominated Formula One, MotoGP had Rossi. Rossi too won five consecutive championships. He even switched manufactures mid-dominance, hopping from Honda to Yamaha. It was not just the dominance, but the personality. There was a pizzazz and intoxicating exuberance watching him win races. It wasn't watching just to see history on track but watching to see how Rossi the showman would top his previous celebration. He turned a victory into more than a podium celebration with a bottle of champagne. A victory became a skit, a performance, something more than we had ever seen in motorsports. It was more than just a burnout with noise and smoke. It was akin to more of a goal celebration in soccer or a touchdown celebration in football. It was something minor but digestible to the viewer. 

Rossi was the guy. Few consistently challenged him, and even fewer were as personable. Nicky Hayden won a championship but did not maintain the success on track. Casey Stoner quickly won two championships, but he retired before the age of 30. Jorge Lorenzo did not take long to win his first championship, pushing Rossi out at Yamaha in a sense. Lorenzo had his taste for the theatrics, but he never was as likable, and his performance drastically fell off, causing him to retire at just 32 years old. 

MotoGP would have been in a rough spot in 2014 or 2015 had Rossi walked away, but him sticking around as the Marc Márquez era began provided the series with the bridge it needed to move on. Márquez matched Rossi's output on the track and he did it while Rossi was around. It left no question that the guard had been changed. Rossi wasn't leaving and creating a void for another rider to fill. Márquez took the honor as top rider in the world as Rossi also competed and the two went toe-to-toe for the title. 

Márquez was always going to have the advantage of time, as he is 14 years younger than Rossi, but this crossover allowed the next wave to take over without the MotoGP fan base lingering in the past, fond of what came before and thinking it could never be top. The tide changed in front of everyone, leaving no question that the next generation was taking over and was not inferior to the previous one. 

It also helped that Rossi stuck around while the other personalities developed, many of these riders who grew up learning from the Book of Rossi. Márquez has mastered post-race celebrations. In the meantime, Fabio Quartararo has become world champion through an uncharacteristic route. Francesco Bagnaia has emerged as Italy's next hopeful. Joan Mir was a surprise champion in 2020. Jack Miller is as quick as they come and has developed into a top-level rider. Maverick Viñales has all the talent in the world but might not have the temperament to be world champion. 

Another new generation will be entering as well. Remy Gardner, son of 1987 world champion Wayne Gardner, who retired after the 1992 season just shy of his 33rd birthday, is about to enter the series, as will Raúl Fernández, two immensely talented riders who showed great potential in their battle for the Moto2 championship this year. 

Beyond the riders, MotoGP has greater manufacture participation than it had a decade ago. Gardner and Fernández will both ride for KTM's customer team. Suzuki is back on the grid and had a rider win the world championship last year with Joan Mir. Aprilia is in the premier class. For a while, MotoGP struggled with grid size and couldn't attract 20 entries, now it is drawing more than that and everyone is a contender. MotoGP went nearly ten years between customer team victories from 2006 to 2016. Last year, customer bikes won eight of 14 races and customer bikes have won a race in three of the last four seasons. Four of the six manufactures won a race this season. 

For the longest time, it was hard to imagine MotoGP without Valentino Rossi. It was difficult to see how the series could remain interesting without him. But after 22 seasons in the top category, Rossi laid the groundwork for grand prix motorcycle racing to become the international event it is today. His first 11 years were spreading the word. His second 11 years were guiding it while other riders found success in the spotlight. MotoGP is moving on in a stronger position than if Rossi had retired before turning 35 as some of the champions that came before him. 

Just because MotoGP is moving on does not mean Rossi will not be missed. He has been on the grid for an entire generation of fans. Longer time observers saw his every move. Others have grown up with him, experiencing many stages of adulthood together with their hero. For the younger set, they might have caught the end, maybe his last championship or at least his final championship fights where he came close but didn't break through. Rossi has left the greatest mark on the series. He will be missed by all, but MotoGP is not in trouble. It is ready to face its future and should have nothing to fear about what comes next.

Champions From the Weekend

Remy Gardner clinched the Moto2 championship with a tenth-place finish in the Valencia season finale.

The #31 Whelen Engineering Cadillac of Pipo Derani and Felipe Nasr clinched the IMSA Daytona Prototype international championship with a runner-up finish at Petit Le Mans with Mike Conway. 

The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Ben Keating and Mikkel Jensen clinched the IMSA LMP2 championship with a runner-up finish at Petit Le Mans with Scott Huffaker. 

The #74 Riley Motorsports of Gar Robinson clinched the IMSA LMP3 championship with a class victory at Petit Le Mans with Felipe Fraga and Scott Andrews.

The #3 Corvette of Antonio García and Jordan Taylor clinched the IMSA GTLM championship by starting Petit Le Mans.

The #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche of Laurens Vanthoor and Zacharie Robichon clinched the IMSA GTD championship with a runner-up finish at Petit Le Mans with Lars Kern.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about more champions, but did you know...

The #55 Mazda of Harry Tincknell, Oliver Jarvis and Jonathan Bomarito won Petit Le Mans, its second victory of the season. The #8 Tower Motorsports by Starworks Oreca-Gibson of Gabriel Aubry, James French and John Farano won in LMP2, its first victory of the season. The #79 WeatherTech Racing Porsche of Cooper MacNeil, Mathieu Jaminet and Matt Campbell won in GTLM, its third victory of the season. The #23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Ross Gunn, Roman De Angelis and Ian James won in GTD, its third victory of the season.

Lewis Hamilton won the Brazilian Grand Prix, his 101st grand prix victory and his sixth of the season.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Valencian Community Grand Prix, his fourth victory of the season, and it led Ducati's first podium sweep in the premier class ahead of Jorge Martín and Jack Miller. Raúl Fernández won the Moto2 race, his seventh victory of the season. Xavier Artigas won the Moto3 race, his first career victory.

Anton de Pasquale won the first two Supercars races from Sydney Motorsports Park with Will Brown taking the third.

Coming Up This Weekend

World Superbike finale from the new Mandalika street course in Indonesia.

The World Rally Championship crescendos in Monza.

The fourth and final Supercars weekend from Sydney Motorsports Park, but this will only be a doubleheader.

Formula One's inaugural Qatar Grand Prix.

2021 NASCAR Predictions: Revisited

NASCAR is done. After 35 race weekends from the middle of February to the start of November, the marathon is over. This year was a little more normal with no scheduled midweek races, no hybrid doubleheaders, and unfortunately not enough 500-kilometer races. There were a few different circuits on the schedule as NASCAR continues to look forward and doing things different. 

Another season meant another year of predictions. How would these shake out?

1. Kyle Busch does not have winless drought of 33 races at any point

Correct! Busch opened 2021 on a two-race drought after not winning either of the final two races in 2020 at Martinsville or Phoenix. That drought got up to 13 races before he won the May Kansas race, the 11th race of the 2021 season, meaning his longest drought in 2021 could only be 25 races, meaning this prediction was satisfied before the quarter-post in the season. 

Busch did win again in the second Pocono race, race 19 of the season. He ended 2021 on a 17-race drought, so he is more than halfway to another 33-race drought. 

2. The Bristol dirt race will be the slowest average speed of the season by at least 12 mph

Correct! But this was much closer than first expected. The average speed of the Bristol dirt race was 46.313 mph. 

The next slowest race was Austin at 59.024 mph in the wet, only 12.711 mph quicker than the Bristol dirt race. If Austin was dry, it would have been much quicker. We are lucky the race was called early like it was. Another lap or two under caution and this could have dipped within 12 mph of the Bristol dirt race. 

There were two other races this season that average under 70 mph, Martinsville the week after the Bristol dirt race at 67.316 mph and the extended Indianapolis road course race at 69.171 mph. The next slowest race was the Martinsville playoff race at 70.968 mph and then Sonoma at 71.445 mph.

For comparison, the Bristol race in September on concrete was 87.409 mph.

3. There will be more winners from the first starting position in 2021 than in 2020

Correct! And it came down to the final race of the season!

In 2020, the first starting position won four races, Bristol at the end of May with Brad Keselowski, Homestead in June with Denny Hamlin, Hamlin again at Talladega in October and then Chase Elliott in the season finale at Phoenix, thought Elliott was sent to the back for inspection failures.

 

This year, there were five races won from the first starting position. Kyle Larson was responsible for all five victories, the Coca-Cola 600, Sonoma a week later and then consecutive races at Texas and Kansas in October before he won the Phoenix finale from pole position. Boom! 

I will be honest; I was sure this one was going to be wrong when we got to the start of October. It just didn't look like it was in the cards and then it happened in three of the final four races.

4. Chase Elliott does not win more than two road course races

Correct! Elliott won two road course races, the rain-shortened Austin race and Road America. He probably could have won more road courses and it started with the first one of the season, possibly the final fill-in event of the pandemic for NASCAR. The Daytona road course returned for the second consecutive season as the second round of the season in place of Fontana. 

Elliott led 44 laps before a questionable caution for rain slowed the race. Elliott stopped for tires under that caution and never got out of the middle of the field. He was second to Kyle Larson at Sonoma with 13 laps led, second to Larson at Watkins Glen, fourth on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with 14 laps led and then he was 12th on the Charlotte infield road course.

5. Chase Briscoe wins at least one road course race

Wrong! But it was close to happening. 

Most notably, it was at Indianapolis, where Briscoe ran strong all race and was on the front row for the final restart with Denny Hamlin. Briscoe went wide in turn one and cut the course, earning him a penalty. He would still go on to spin Hamlin and was handed a further penalty, he was parked.

All three of Briscoe's top ten finishes were on road courses, sixth at Austin, sixth at Road America and ninth at Watkins Glen, but none of them were as close to success as Indianapolis. 

 

6. Bubba Wallace gets his career-best Cup championship finish

Correct! Wallace was 21st in the championship, beating his previous best of 22nd. This year was capped off with Wallace's first Cup victory in the October Talladega race when the race was rain-shortened. He had three top five finishes, his most in a single season. 

It was not a great season. Wallace did feel like a driver consistently stuck between 13th and 17th every week. His three top five finishes were his only top ten finishes. However, his championship finish is a little diminishing of his actual results. He scored the 19th most points this season, more than race winners Aric Almirola and Michael McDowell, but those two were each gifted a top 16 championship finish, dropping Wallace a few spots. 

 

7. The driver with the most victories makes the Cup final four

Correct! Kyle Larson won nine races and made the final four, and then he won his tenth race of the season in the Phoenix finale, clinching the championship.

Not only did Larson make the final four, but he was the first driver to clinch a spot after winning the first semifinal at Texas and then he followed it with a victory in the next race at Kansas. Larson was the only driver to clinch a spot in the championship race via a victory.

8. At least seven drivers will have multiple Cup victories

Correct! Though this was closer than it appeared to not happening. 

The first repeat winner was Martin Truex, Jr., with the second victory at the first Martinsville race in April. Truex also got to three victories before anyone else got to two after he won at Darlington in May. The second repeat winner was Alex Bowman, whose second victory was the week after Truex's third at Dover. Kyle Larson won three consecutive races from the Coca-Cola 600 through Nashville. Kyle Busch made it four repeat winners after his Pocono victory. 

On Independence Day, Elliott won at Road America, six races after he won at Austin. There would not be another repeat until Ryan Blaney won the penultimate race of the regular season at Michigan following his March victory at Atlanta. 

The seventh repeat winner was in the 30th race of the season when Denny Hamlin won at Las Vegas. Hamlin's first victory was the Southern 500, the first race of the playoffs. 

9. At least three drivers win a Grand National Series race and start less than 70% of the races

Correct! To meet this criteria, a driver had to start 23 races or less. 

Kyle Busch won all five of his starts. Josh Berry was not full-time, but he did run an expanded schedule, making 22 starts, and he won twice, first at Martinsville in May and then Las Vegas in September. Ty Gibbs won four times in 18 races. John Hunter Nemechek won at Texas in October and made five starts all season. Christopher Bell won at Loudon, one of his two starts. 

10. No Grand National Series race winner on the track will be disqualified

Correct! Three-thirty times the driver first on the track ended up first on the final results sheet. 

In each of the previous two seasons, there had been at least one race Grand National Series winner disqualified. That streak is broken. None of the Truck race winners were disqualified, as were none of the Cup winners, making 2021 the first year none of the three national series had a race winner failed inspection and lose a victory since NASCAR changed the regulations. 

11. At least three Truck drivers that competed in 2020 and missed the playoffs will make the playoffs in 2021

Correct! 

John Hunter Nemechek, Stewart Friesen, Chandler Smith and Carson Hocevar all made the playoffs this year after making three starts, 22 starts, 12 starts and seven starts last year. 

The inclusion of those four drivers meant Brett Moffitt, who switched his championship eligibility to the Grand National Series in the middle of 2021, Grant Enfinger, who missed only one race in 2021 due to lack of funding, Christian Eckes, who was part-time this season and Tyler Ankrum, who missed the playoffs by 28 points, were the four drivers out of the playoffs from the year before. 

12. Both Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers make the Round of Eight in the Truck playoffs

Correct! But it nearly did not happen. 

John Hunter Nemechek was the easy one. He won the third race at Las Vegas and then added four more victories. He got out of the first round comfortably, though he did not win a race, but Chandler Smith did it the difficult way. He was technically 11th in points, but made the playoffs because Grant Enfinger missed one race, so the last spot went to Smith. 

Smith was 28th and seventh in the first two races of round one at Gateway and Darlington respectively. He was still tenth entering the Bristol cutoff race and he was only 12 points outside advancing. With many of his playoff competitors also at the front in Bristol, Smith had to win, and he did, his first in the Truck series. This got both KBM truck into round two.

 

Eleven out of 12! And the only one incorrect was on Chase Briscoe. Either I am really good, or these predictions were not ambitious enough. But you never really know about predictions. There are certain things you are certain will happen that do not. 

I bet everyone thought Kevin Harvick would win at least one race this season and he had none. Going from nine to zero, especially with no change in team or regulations, does not seem sensible. No one could have reasonable predicted Harvick would have no victories. It is one thing to have predicted he would have won three races or fewer, but zero? That was not practical this time a year ago. 

Some years you have it. I will take it.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2021 Season

Our final IndyCar Wrap-Up is here and it is our champions, Chip Ganassi Racing. After winning a title in 2020, the team expanded back to four full-time cars, brought in two new drivers, and one returnee for oval races. These changes did not rock the apple cart, and the team looked stronger than ever in 2021. 

Álex Palou: An unexpected champion

Álex Palou
A good, but far from spectacular rookie season, took Palou from Dale Coyne Racing to Chip Ganassi Racing, a team with high expectations. Let's just say it did not take Palou long to get on Ganassi's good side and a bright first day only foreshadowed what was to come.

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won three races, including the season opener at Barber Motorsports Park after leading 56 of 90 laps, Road America after leading five of 55 laps, but taking the lead with two laps to go when Josef Newgarden's gearbox failed on the final restart, and winning from pole position at Portland, but in a race where pole position was not an advantage and Palou still won with 29 laps led. 

What subjectively was his best race?
This is more difficult than I thought it would be, but not because a champion is supposed to have a lot of great finishes, rather because of what each finish meant to Palou's season. 

Barber is important. It set the tone. He didn't just win that race, he controlled it, leading 56 laps from third. He had a balance on the car at a track he had never raced at before, better than the other front-runners, all of whom had experience at the Alabama road course. 

Road America is important because he was able to scoop up a victory when another championship rival stumbled. Palou could have been third or fourth when Newgarden sputtered, but Palou was second and scored the most points that day when the opportunity presented itself. 

Portland is where Palou kept his composure. He entered second in the championship after losing the lead eight days earlier at Gateway when Rinus VeeKay drove into him in turn one. Palou won pole position, but blew the chicane at the start and was shuffled to the rear of the field. All the pieces were laid out for this to be a championship collapse, but Palou did not overdrive the car in the remaining 100 laps of that race. The team changed the strategy, Palou remained ahead of all the other cars sent to the back for missing the chicane and the cautions flew in his favor. He had the track position and with his speed it got him to the lead and he won the race. 

I will say Portland was his best race because he could have lost the championship that day and instead regained control.

What objectively was his worst race?
Palou lost an engine while running in the top five of the August IMS road course race and it dropped him to 27th out of 28 cars. It also cut his championship lead in half from 42 points to 21 points over Patricio O'Ward.

What subjectively was his worst race?

The only race I am not sure what happened was St. Petersburg. That was the only race where the team was not dialed in and Palou finished 17th. It wasn't a terrible weekend, he did qualify tenth, but it was the only weekend the team went in the wrong direction. 

Gateway also was not great and Palou did have to start at the back because of an engine change, but that result wasn't on him.

Álex Palou's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (549 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 8
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 137
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 11
Average Start: 8.1243
Average Finish: 7.3125

It is hard to get down about a Scott Dixon season

Scott Dixon
Fresh off his sixth championship, Dixon had more IndyCar history to chase down in 2021, most notably a record-tying seventh championship and possibly moving into second all-time in victories. Through the first quarter of the season, Dixon looked poised for another historic season, but it was not meant to be.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon led 206 of 212 laps in the first Texas race and it gave him the championship lead, but it was Dixon's only victory of the season.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is weird to say it is the race Dixon won and led the most laps in, but it is the race Dixon won and led the most laps in, the first Texas race. 

Normally, Dixon wins a race where he might have been the third or fourth best car, but made the right choice on tires and stretched the alternate compound four laps longer than anyone else could or he was knocked out in the first round of qualifying due to a untimely red flag, started 13th and ended pulling out a victory. That didn't happen the season for Dixon.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon was caught in the early Gateway accident when Rinus VeeKay got into Álex Palou and Dixon had nowhere to go. The team did repair the car, but Dixon only completed 100 laps and finished 19th. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

The Indianapolis 500. Stefan Wilson's caution for his spin entering the pit lane put many leaders in a bind. They had yet to make their first pit stops and were close on fuel. When Dixon was finally able to make his stop, he had run his car out of fuel and it caused his car to shut down. This forced the team to perform a complete recycle on the electrical system before the car could restart. 

Once fired up, Dixon had lost a lap and he would spend most of the race one lap down. He was back on the lead lap after Graham Rahal's accident just shy of the 300-mile mark, but with so little attrition, Dixon was still outside the top twenty. He went off-strategy hoping to pull out an unfathomable result, but he ended up 17th. 

 

Scott Dixon's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 4th (481 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 401
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 8.1429
Average Finish: 7.4375

In any other year, Marcus Ericsson would be the surprise of the season

Marcus Ericsson
After a respectable first season with Ganassi in 2020, Ericsson picked up his results in 2021 and surprised many. The Swede was on more podiums and led more laps than in his first two IndyCar seasons combined. He also was able to achieve something for Chip Ganassi that the team owner had never experienced before. 

What objectively was his best race?
Ericsson won not once, but twice! His first victory was the first Belle Isle street course race when Will Power's car failed to restart after the final red flag was lifted with five laps to go. Ericsson inherited the lead and held on for the victory. It was the first time Chip Ganassi Racing ever had three different drivers win a race in one IndyCar season. 

The second victory was even crazier! Ericsson climbed over Sébastien Bourdais' car coming to the restart on lap five. Ericsson continued and was repaired. With the number of cautions, Ericsson cycled to the lead with an alternate strategy and he was holding off a charging Colton Herta until Herta hit the barrier with six laps to go. Ericsson had one restart to defend from teammate Scott Dixon and Ericsson finished an improbable race on top.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is a race Ericsson did not win. It is his second-place result at Mid-Ohio. In all fairness, Ericsson had a lot of fortunate on his side in both his victories. You do need a few things to go your way sometimes to get a victory, but that doesn't mean it was your best day on the track. The most impressive race from Ericsson was Mid-Ohio, where he was second for basically the entire race and he was chasing down Josef Newgarden in the closing laps, as Ericsson had better tire life late in stints. 

It did not end as a victory, but Ericsson turned what was a Newgarden runaway into a late scramble. One mistake from Newgarden and Ericsson would have rained on the Independence Day parade. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Ericsson was put into the turn one tire barrier on lap 26 at Long Beach. That ended his race and his season early with a 28th-place finish.

What subjectively was his worst race?

Ericcson did not have many bad races this season. He had nine consecutive top ten results from his Belle Isle victory in June through Laguna Seca in the middle of September. One race that got away from him was the first Texas race when a botched pit stop cost him a top ten finish. Ericsson left his pit box without his right rear tire properly secured. Fortunately, he stopped in the pit lane and did not return to the racetrack. All that was hurt that day was his pride and the race car remained in one piece. 

 

Marcus Ericsson's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (435 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 45
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 5
Average Start: 12.357
Average Finish: 9.0625

Welcome to IndyCar, Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson
The anticipated second career of the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion began and Johnson's foray into IndyCars brought excitement, but also trepidation for such a switch from rotund, full-bodied race cars to featherlight open-wheelers. He might have been 45 years old, but Johnson was a clear rookie. 

What objectively was his best race?
Johnson's best two races objectively were the final two races of the season, both 17th-place finishes, both in his home state of California, first at Laguna Seca and then at Long Beach.

What subjectively was his best race?
Johnson ended the season strongly compared to his start of the season. He wasn't spinning out. He wasn't as slow as he was. He got his first lead lap finish in the August IMS road course. I would say Laguna Seca is his best race because he was legitimately faster than James Hinchcliffe, Rinus VeeKay and Hélio Castroneves in that race.

What objectively was his worst race?
Johnson was caught in the Simon Pagenaud/Will Power accident on lap 19 at Nashville, and his car was repairable, but the team was deemed to have been working on the car while under a red flag and his car was parked, leaving him in 26th with only 18 laps completed. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

This was a difficult season for Johnson. He had many spins and many brushes with the barriers. He was learning a completely new style of car after over 20 years of driving a stock car for nearly 40 weeks a year. We knew this season was not going to have many stellar moments. 

St. Petersburg is particularly bad because he brought out two cautions, one of which the race stayed green for nearly two laps because Johnson kept the car running and all he had to do was backup from the tire barrier on the outside turn 14. He couldn't get the gearbox into reverse and eventually stalled out. Then he lost it on cold tires in turn three.

Jimmie Johnson's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 26th (108 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 23.583
Average Finish: 21.083

Tony Kanaan was back with Ganassi in 2021

Tony Kanaan
While Johnson focused on the road and street courses, Kanaan filled the seat for the oval events in a return to the Ganassi organization. It was Kanaan's second season as an oval-only driver in IndyCar. There were a few good results, but it was mostly average for the past champion and past Indianapolis 500 winner.

What objectively was his best race?
Kanaan was tenth in the Indianapolis 500.

What subjectively was his best race?
Nothing can really top finishing tenth in the Indianapolis 500, but the first Texas race deserves a mention because Kanaan had to start 23rd after qualifying was rained out. He was the fastest car in the only practice session. Despite difficult track conditions, Kanaan went from 23rd to finish 11th and on the lead lap

What objectively was his worst race?
Kanaan was 15th in the second Texas race, finishing two laps down after being caught in the opening lap accident, but the team was able to make repairs and get him back on track. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

I am not going to single out one race because the worst thing is Kanaan made three of his four starts in 30 days and then did not race again in IndyCar for 83 days. Gateway was his final race and he finished 13th, never factoring in the race.

It is just how IndyCar is and Kanaan was always going to scale back his schedule. He wasn't going to be full-time forever, but it would be nice if IndyCar could at least get back to six oval races and have a few more dispersed in the middle of the season. Six oval races are still a little low, but it is a lot better than four. IndyCar will have five oval races in 2022, but they will be at four tracks over four weekends, as Iowa returns as doubleheader. It is at least better, but no cause for celebration. 

 

Tony Kanaan's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 28th (96 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 11.5
Average Finish: 12.25

An Early Look Ahead

Off consecutive championships, Chip Ganassi Racing is basically set for the 2022 season. Palou, Dixon and Ericsson will all return. The only questions are does Johnson commit to a full schedule and expand to ovals? And, if yes, what does that mean for Kanaan?

There is a shifting dynamic at Ganassi. Palou has locked up a seat for the next ten years if he wants it. With how he performed in his sophomore season, when six of the 14 tracks were completely new to him, it can only get better from here. He isn't going to win a championship every season, and it would be foolish to pencil him in for 50 victories and another five championships like Dixon, but Palou will do more. 

With Palou's success, Dixon had a subdued season based on his standard. At 41 years old, the mind wanders to when Dixon's dip is something more permanent than temporary. Nothing lasts forever. Just look across the Ganassi tent. Jimmie Johnson won his seventh NASCAR Cup championship in 2016. He opened 2017 with three victories in the first 13 races and then did not win again in his final 130 Cup starts. Prior to that, Johnson averaged 19.64 victories per 130 starts. 

We don't want to see Dixon suffer a similar falloff. We want to see Dixon end on top, but it doesn't happen often. Dixon did have a one-victory season in 2017 and followed it up with a championship. I think he could have another off-season next year and still have the benefit of the doubt he will turn it around. It is a case of once is a happenstance, twice is a coincidence and three times is a pattern when it comes to Dixon. He needs three consecutive bad seasons before anyone can start saying he has lost it. 

As for Ericsson, he won twice and was second at Mid-Ohio, but those were his only top five finishes all season. He is consistent, but he can take another step and become a more serious contender. He has only led 55 laps in his IndyCar career, but 37 of those came at Nashville and Nashville is the only time he has led double-digit laps in a race. There is room for improvement, but if he does improve, Ganassi will have three serious title contenders. 

Next year will be year two of the Jimmie Johnson experiment. He has tested at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and he ran at Texas Motor Speedway. Ovals are more likely than ever before, but he could decide just to do Indianapolis. Ganassi is committing to a five-car program for May 2022, but will Johnson be at Texas in March or will Kanaan retain his oval-only roll and that fifth car will be for Johnson's only oval start.

Johnson might hold off and run road and street courses only again, but if Ganassi is committing to five cars, one of those are likely for him. He will be around for at least 12 races, but if Johnson is running Indianapolis, he should just run the entire schedule. It is one thing to be worried about Texas but Iowa and Gateway are not going to hurt him.

Kanaan is there if he needs to fill in. For Johnson, things should get better. I don't think he will be competing for top ten finishes on a regular basis, but with how 2021 ended, he should be on the lead lap more often and he could have a few breaks go his way and maybe pull out a few top fifteen finishes and possibly sneak into the top ten once or twice. 

If Johnson does contest oval races, expectations will be higher for those five races. He is coming from that background. We all remember what Kurt Busch did in the Indianapolis 500 going on eight years ago. Busch only did one race, and late accidents did elevate him in the closing laps to a higher position than he had run all day, but he brought the car home. It will not be easy, but Johnson should be more in his comfort zone. If he runs a full season, five good results could lift his championship finish by a few positions. 

Ganassi is going to be fine, but a keynote is next year will be ten years since the team's most recent Indianapolis 500 victory. It has won five championships since 2012 and it enters 2022 with consecutive titles. A third consecutive title would be accepted, but the team will be shooting for extra hardware.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Team Penske's 2021 Season

The penultimate IndyCar Wrap-Up is Team Penske. In 2021, the organization was back to four full-time entries for the first time since 2017. That 2017 season saw Penske put all four drivers in the top five of the championship and the team won ten of 17 races. Seventy-five percent of that 2017 driver lineup was still around in 2021. The one change was something unfamiliar to Team Penske, a rookie driver.

Josef Newgarden nearly did it again in 2021

Josef Newgarden
After winning the IndyCar championship in the previous two seasons to end in an odd-number, Newgarden hoped to keep that pattern going in 2021. However, he would have to do it fighting from behind after a few rough results early, but Newgarden did fight back and he was clearly the best Penske driver this season.

What objectively was his best race?
Newgarden won two races. He led 73 of 80 laps on his way to victory at Mid-Ohio. A month later, he led 138 of 260 laps on his way to victory at Gateway.

What subjectively was his best race?
I will say Mid-Ohio because he wasn't really in danger at that race. If Colton Herta does have a broken driveshaft late at Gateway, Herta likely wins that race, and Newgarden likely finishes second, but Newgarden would have led about 72 few laps. 

Mid-Ohio was the race Newgarden controlled through the finish, but the second Belle Isle race deserves a mention. Newgarden led the first 67 laps, but an early second pit stop due to a possible caution forced him to be on the less ideal alternate tires for the final stint and for longer than planned. Newgarden tried to hold on but he could not hold off the charging Patricio O'Ward after a pair of late restarts, knocking Newgarden back to second.

What objectively was his worst race?
It was the very first race of the season and the very first lap of the season. Newgarden spun cresting the hill out of turn four at Barber Motorsports Park, and he collected three cars with him. Race one was over before he reached turn five and Newgarden was classified in 23rd. It was Newgarden's worst finish since Toronto 2016. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

Newgarden only lost the championship by 38 points. There are many places where you can look at points dropped and where the championship swung out of his control. It is easy to look at a lap one accident in round one and all the points dropped there. If Newgarden makes it through that corner, he likes scores more than seven points at Barber. He was starting eighth and he had five consecutive top five finishes at the track. 

But the race that sticks out the most was Road America. If the gearbox holds on for two more laps, he gets his first victory of the season a race earlier. Instead of scoring only 13 points, he scores the maximum 54 points with a victory. If Newgarden wins the race, he takes 11 points away from Álex Palou, who benefitted from Newgarden's failure. 

Palou scored 38 points more than Newgarden at Road America. If Newgarden holds on and wins the race, he scores 14 points more than Palou. That one race was a 52-point swing, and if you flip that race alone, Newgarden scored 552 points while Palou scores only 538 points. Newgarden wins the championship.

Josef Newgarden's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 2nd (511 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 355
Poles: 4
Fast Sixes: 5
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 7.371
Average Finish: 7.25

Good was not good enough for Simon Pagenaud

Simon Pagenaud
In his seventh season with Team Penske, Pagenaud was looking to pick up his results after an eighth-place championship finish in the 2020 season. Pagenaud ended the previous season with eight consecutive races without a top five finish. 

What objectively was his best race?
Pagenaud was twice on the podium, both were third-place results at St. Petersburg and the Indianapolis 500 respectively.

What subjectively was his best race?
Indianapolis deserves the nod because Pagenaud started 26th, Penske looked lost in Indianapolis 500 qualifying and the race was not going great. It was going better than qualifying, but Pagenaud was not even sniffing the top ten until well into the second half of the race. Over the final two stints, Pagenaud's strategy got him into the top ten, then into the top five and he was able to break into third in the closing laps.

What objectively was his worst race?
Twenty-first at Portland after he was spun from contact with teammate Will Power. This was lining up to be a good run as he was running with teammate Scott McLaughlin and could have broken into the top ten before the spin. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

I think it was another disappointing season for Pagenaud where there isn't one bad race but a collection of underwhelming results. He only had three top five finishes all season. He only led 12 laps all season. There isn't a race where it felt like Pagenaud was a threat to win. If it wasn't for an extended caution period at Iowa last year, we would likely be saying there has been two full years since Pagenaud was last in contention for a victory. 

You can see why Penske was fine moving Pagenaud to sports cars if Pagenaud chose to stay with the team for 2022 and beyond. The results weren't bad, but not great in 2021. He is still capable of winning races, but he needs get back in his groove.

Simon Pagenaud's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 8th (383 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 12
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 11.0
Average Finish: 10.688

Results remained inconsistent for Will Power

Will Power
Power entered 2021 with 11 consecutive seasons finishing in the top five fo the championship. He ended the 2020 season with two victories and three pole positions in the final five races. He was also one victory away from reaching the 40-victory milestone and sole possession of fifth all-time in victories.

What objectively was his best race?
Power won the August IMS road course race, leading 56 of 85 laps from second starting position. The victory was Power's 40th in IndyCar, broke a tie with Al Unser for fifth all-time and it was Power's sixth victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. 

What subjectively was his best race?
I would say it is the August IMS road course race. It was only one of two races where Power led more than five laps.

What objectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500 could not have gone worse for Power. First, he nearly did not qualify for the race. Power was not able to make the top 30 on Saturday, which put him in the Last Row Shootout on Sunday. On the final lap of his first qualifying run, he brushed the barrier and it cost him a lot of speed. It put him in danger, but his time held up to put his 32nd on the grid. 

The drama did not end there. In the race, Power spun entering the pit lane late while he was looking to be contender for a top ten finish. Instead, he finished 30th, three lap down and it was the worst finish of his IndyCar career.

What subjectively was his worst race?

It is the first Belle Isle race, because if that race was not red-flagged, Power's car does not fail to restart and knock him from leading the race with five laps to go to finishing 20th, three laps down. Not many drivers are robbed of race victory. Power was robbed at Belle Isle.

Power had four podium finishes, but he had only seven top ten finishes. He had four finishes of 20th or worse. It feels like every season since 2014, Power has four finishes that are inexplicable and most of those are odd mechanical issues. Belle Isle and Laguna Seca fit that description. He spun early at Mid-Ohio and then he spun at Indianapolis. But there were more races where Power was anonymous this year. He only had one pole position. He only made the Fast Six in four of nine possible races. 

Will Power's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 9th (357 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 4
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 99
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 10.429
Average Finish: 12.438

Scott McLaughlin had a fight on his hands in his rookie season

Scott McLaughlin
After making his debut last year in a frantic Transpacific flight from Australia in the middle of a pandemic and only days after his third consecutive Supercars championship, McLaughlin was set for his full-time commitment to IndyCar and life in the United States in 2021. Fourteen of the 15 tracks on the 2021 were completely new to the New Zealander, including all three ovals. 

What objectively was his best race?
In McLaughlin's very first oval start, he ended up finishing second in the first Texas race. He kept himself out of trouble and the team used its strategy to position him with clean track ahead. It allowed him to get into the top ten and then the top five and all of a sudden he was on the tail of his fellow New Zealander Scott Dixon, and McLaughlin kept Dixon honest. 

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Texas, but McLaughlin should be commended for his oval results across the board. He was eighth the next day in the second Texas race, which is a great followup for McLaughlin after his first podium finish. He was the top Penske qualifier at the Indianapolis 500, starting 17th, and he was running well before he sped entering pit lane late in the race. Indianapolis could have been a top ten finish. He had a clean night at Gateway and he was fourth. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Though he finished on the lead lap, McLaughlin was 23rd in the August IMS road course race, but he did spin Rinus VeeKay in that race and it was a setback. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

He struggled a lot on street courses, most notably at Nashville where he started 23rd and finished 22nd after being spun twice, first in turn four when Ed Jones got into him and then in turn nine when teammate Will Power got into him and then Dalton Kellett chose the worst possible line and ran over the McLaughlin's stationary car. 

Scott McLaughlin's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (305 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 5
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 15.857
Average Finish: 13.063

An Early Look Ahead

It feels like Team Penske enters 2022 at a bit of a crossroads. It will have been five years since the team went 1-2-4-5 in the championship. Two of those drivers are gone. One of those drivers just turned 40 years old. Penske will have a sophomore driver in its program, who only has one season of Formula Ford and one season of IndyCar under his belt as an open-wheel career. 

Newgarden should be set for the next ten years. He turns 31 years old this December 22. Newgarden finished this season at 30 years old and he has 20 victories, 41 podium finishes, 62 top five finishes and 100 top ten finishes in 164 starts and two championships. For comparison, when Scott Dixon completed the 2010 season at 30 years old, Dixon had 25 victories, 65 podium finishes, 78 top five finishes and 119 top ten finishes in 169 starts and he had two championships. 

Penske would be foolish not to give him a contract right now. He already has 20 victories and two championships. Before him, the last driver to win multiple championship with Team Penske was Gil de Ferran. In his five years at Penske, Newgarden has finished first, fifth, first, second and second in the championship. Nothing suggests he is going to slow down. 

Will Power, however... In five years we have seen Hélio Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud exit the team. Power dropped to ninth in the championship in 2021, his worst year with Team Penske after 11 consecutive years finishing in the top five of the championship. He only had one victory and one pole position. He only led 99 laps, still sixth best in the season, but it was the first time he led under 100 laps since 2008. His average finish of 12.438 was his worst in a season since 2008.

The recent past suggests Power is on the hot seat. Pagenaud worst average finish at Penske was this season, 10.688 and he is gone. Pagenaud won 11 races since 2015, only four fewer than Power. Castroneves had nine top five championship finishes in his last ten seasons at Penske and only once was his average finish worse than tenth. Only once did he lead fewer than 100 laps in that period.

Then you have McLaughlin, whose full IndyCar potential is still a mystery. Could McLaughlin win races? Be champion? Somewhere in-between? How long is his leash? He is only 28 years old. Finishing 14th in the championship as a rookie with basically zero open-wheel experience is mightily impressive. That doesn't mean he will be a champion. He definitely is comfortable on ovals, but ovals aren't even a third of the schedule.

In two or three years, Newgarden and McLaughlin could be left welcoming a new teammate, and a rare circumstance where Team Penske does not already have IndyCar's top lineup. It added Newgarden when it already have two past champions and it was replacing Juan Pablo Montoya. It expanded to four cars with the inclusion of Pagenaud in 2015 alongside Power, Castroneves and Montoya. 

I am not sure the direction of Team Penske. Three years ago, everyone thought Alexander Rossi was destined to drive there. That doesn't look as likely now. There are more drivers interested in IndyCar than ever before, and Penske can hire whomever it wants. Penske will be fine. 

That is the long-term. The short-term should see Penske remain competitive. Newgarden will lead the way and Power still has to balance out his results, but we know he has the ability to win any race. There were too many finishes outside the top ten counterbalancing Power's podium finishes. The strange thing is Penske has gone consecutive years without a championship for the first time since a seven-year drought from 2007 to 2013. It is a weird place for the team. You expect Penske will bounce back next year, but IndyCar is getting tougher and a third consecutive year without a championship is realistic for IndyCar's both decorated organization. 

Musings From the Weekend: How Many Would Come Back?

Fabio Quartararo waited until he clinched the world championship to have his first accident of the season. The Moto3 championship was decided way too early. Moto2 really is the middle child, as its championship will go down to the finale, but with little attention. Mercedes blew its chance to grab momentum in Mexico. Yuki Tsunoda is getting on the wrong nerves. It rained in Sydney. There was heartbreak in Motegi. Colton Herta has interest in the Daytona 500. Anthony Davidson made his final motorsport start, as the British driver announced his retirement ahead of the FIA World Endurance Championship finale. Porsche and Ferrari came to blows. NASCAR concluded another season. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

How Many Would Come Back?

We will find out in a few days how many people tuned into the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series finale from Phoenix, but it will likely pale in comparison to the audience from only six years ago. 

In 2015, NBC's first year back broadcasting the season finale, 7.6 million people tuned in to what was a rain-delayed Homestead race. It was the second year of the current championship format with four drivers. It was Jeff Gordon's final race as a full-time Cup driver and he was alive for the championship, as was Kyle Busch, who had missed the first 11 races due to injury. Defending championship Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex, Jr., driving for the underdog Furniture Row Racing, were the other championship contenders for the title. 

Last year, the 2020 finale, the first at Phoenix, had only 3.063 million viewers, as Chase Elliott won his first Cup championship over Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. The four championship contenders were 1-2-3-4 in the final results. Viewership was down from 3.74 million viewers tuning in for the 2019 finale from Homestead where Kyle Busch won his second career championship. The 2018 finale drew 4.15 million viewers. 

While professing this system as a success and creating championship drama down to the final lap, NASCAR has lost half its audience in six years for the championship finale, arguably the second most important race on the schedule behind the Daytona 500. Eventually, you must look at the numbers and say it is not working. You can have as many side-by-side, last lap spins and uncertain results until the checkered flag as you want, but if fewer and fewer people keep showing up each year it is not going well. It is not a success. It is a failure. 

For nearly 20 years now, NASCAR has been making changes in hopes of increasing appeal to others, people who are not regular motorsports viewers. The mid-2000s and early-2010s might have seen an uptick, but the last decade has been a sharp decline. The short-term gain has turned into a significant long-term loss. 

Now what?

NASCAR is firmly in an identity crisis. Its next generation car is coming for the 2022 season, there will be single-wheel nuts and the Cup Series is shaking up its schedule, but more now than ever the Cup Series does not know what it is, nor what it really wants to be. It wants to be big. It wants to be 2005 again with 100,000 spectators at over 2/3rds of the races, the rest having 75,000 people, and eight million people tuning in on a regular basis. But there is a long road back to the top. 

There is a sense NASCAR has gone too far. It kept changing and abandoning what made itself stand out. People have walked away because of the changes because it is not what they fell in love with. After 17 years, I think we have enough data to prove this wasn't the answer, which has me wondering...

How many people would come back if NASCAR has an epiphany and undoes the last 17 years? 

Drastic changes are nothing new to NASCAR, but every change has come with the guarantee it will be better. The Chase will make it better. Stage racing will make it better. Double-file restarts will make it better. Green-white-checkered finishes will make it better. If all these moves were for the best, fewer people wouldn't be tuning in. Things would at least stay the same.

NASCAR has an out. It has lost 99.9% of its goodwill. What if it decided to announce it is reverting to the past, a 36-race championship aggregate, no playoffs, no stages, no playoff points? It can keep a few things It can keep the points system with 40 points for a victory. It can keep double-file restarts and I guess it can keep green-white-checkered finishes, but the rest of it, the full season would change. Cutoff races would be gone. Winning a race would not guarantee someone a top 16 championship finish. It would come down to 36 races. No more resets. A champion would be based on every result from the green flag from the Daytona 500 to the checkered flag in the finale.

It would be a chance for a powerful organization to do something rare ever do, admit it was wrong. NASCAR could come out with compassion and say it sees some of its decisions did not work out. It did not make the series greater and in fact steered people away. This could be NASCAR's olive branch to those its lost, ask for forgiveness and invite everyone to come back to the racetrack and back to their television strategy. 

No other entity would employ such a strategy, and it could be an admirable move earning NASCAR respect. It would get noticed for humbleness, recognizing where it had gone wrong, and wanting to make amends. NASCAR would not lose anything doing such a thing. It would stand to make a big gain. 

How many would come back? One move like this will not double viewership. NASCAR would see a surge at first, but many would remain skeptical and be slow to return. Some are gone forever. Ten years of sliding would not be undone in one year. As for new fans, attracting them goes beyond what the championship format is, and this change could go either way. However, I bet NASCAR would take a bigger step forward embracing its past championship system than with its current championship format. 

All these changes have been made to interest causal fans and keep NASCAR in the national discussion, however all these changes have done is eroded passionate fans while the series has lost any casual interest. People are not tuning to see who wins the championship. A motorsports series needs its tentpole events that people will watch even if they are not regular fans. They might not watch every week, but they know what races not to miss. NASCAR doesn't have that now. It is just the Daytona 500, and after the first race of the season, most are gone until the following February.

The format is not captivating people. It doesn't matter that there are four drivers alive and to the best finisher goes the championship. That isn't enough to make people tune in. People do not care about the champion and all NASCAR is left with is the same people who watch every week. 

A base of three million people is a good thing, but if that is all that shows up for each race, then the format is not doing what it was meant to do, and if fewer people are watching, why keep it? Why not return to what was around when NASCAR grew?

NASCAR kept simplifying what was already simple. It was easy to understand that each race paid points and the driver with the most after all the races was champion. It wasn't always exciting, but everyone could understand it. But that was not enough for NASCAR. It needed to fulfill a desire to be thrilling and have the championship decided not just in the final race but on the final lap of the season. Deciding the championship via the best finisher among four drivers in the finale has stripped away drama. Every preceding race loses its meaning. No matter how a driver does in the first 35 races, he will be equal to three other competitors in the finale. 

Being the best of four is simple, but what makes motorsports stand out is needing to make a comeback in a finale. Winning could not be enough. A competitor can do all that is possible and still fall short. At the same time, the championship leader is playing with a lead and faces the pressure of closing out a season on top. There is nothing worse than a blown advantage, letting a championship slip from one's hands and never knowing if that opportunity will come again. NASCAR takes out both those elements with its format. After eight years and half as many viewers than when it was first introduced, we have enough data to call it a failure. 

It doesn't matter how great the races are or the championship going to the final corner if people are not tuning in. NASCAR has lost majority of its relevance and it does not have one driver the average American wants to see let alone a racing product and championship format of interest. 

Reverting to a previous championship format likely will not double the audience. It might barely make a positive gain. The damage has been done but continuing down the current road will not make it better. Admitting some fault, saying it has been wrong, acknowledging it has strayed and reversing some of its past choices, could be the one drastic change that helps NASCAR rediscover its identity. 

Champions From the Weekend

Pedro Acosta clinched the Moto3 World Championship with his victory at Portimão with his sixth victory of the season. 

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup Series championship with his tenth victory of the season at Phoenix.

Daniel Hemric won the NASCAR Grand National Series championship with his first career victory at Phoenix.

Ben Rhodes won the NASCAR Truck Series championship with a third-place finish at Phoenix.

The #7 Toyota of Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and José María López clinched the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with a runner-up finish in the 8 Hours of Bahrain. 

The #51 AF Corse Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi won the World Endurance GT Drivers' Championship with its third victory of the season in the 8 Hours of Bahrain. 

The #31 Team WRT Oreca-Gibson of Robin Frijns, Ferdinand von Habsburg and Charles Milesi won the Endurance Trophy for LMP2 Drivers with its third consecutive victory in the 8 Hours of Bahrain. 

The #83 AF Corse Ferrari of Nicklas Nielsen, François Perrodo and Alessio Rovera won the Endurance Trophy for GTE-AM Drivers with its fourth victory of the season in the 8 Hours of Bahrain.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about many champions, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Mexican Grand Prix, his ninth victory of the season.

Chandler Smith won the NASCAR Truck race from Phoenix, his second victory of the season.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Algarve Grand Prix, his third victory of the season. Remy Gardner won the Moto2 race, his fifth victory of the season, and Gardner enters the finale leading by 23 points over Raúl Fernández, but Fernández owns the tiebreaker with seven victory.

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Brendon Hartley and Kazuki Nakajima won the 8 Hours of Bahrain, its third victory of the season. 

Shane van Gisbergen, Anton De Pasquale and Jamie Whincup split the Supercars races from Sydney Motorsports Park.

The #8 ARTA Honda of Nirei Fukuzumi and Tomoki Nojiri won the Super GT race from Motegi, its second consecutive victory. The #21 Audi Sport Team Hitotsuyama Audi of Shintaro Kawabata and Takuro Shinohara won in GT300.

Santiago Urrutia and Yann Ehrlacher split the World Touring Car Cup races from Adria. 

Coming Up This Weekend

Petit Le Mans

MotoGP's season finale from Valencia. 

Formula One's Brazilian Grand Prix.

Supercars' third weekend at Sydney Motorsports Park.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren SP's 2021 Season

The eighth IndyCar Wrap-Up dives into Arrow McLaren SP. After years of talking about becoming IndyCar's fourth best team, AMSP finally showed some results that were worthy of that claim. Not only did the team get back to victory lane, it was in the championship fight until the final day of the season against the big boys from Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske. 

Patricio O'Ward cannot complain much about his season

Patricio O'Ward

The 2020 IndyCar Rookie of the Year was expected to break out in 2021, and the Mexican driver indeed broke out. From the first race of the season, O'Ward was a presence at every race. Constantly starting and running at the front, O'Ward went from a young driver looking for his first victory to a first-time championship contender, including leading the championship with three races to go. However, while majority of the days were glorious for him, O'Ward needed a few more to earn IndyCar's ultimate prize.

What objectively was his best race?
O'Ward won two races, his first was in the second race of the Texas weekend. The second was the second race of the Belle Isle weekend.

What subjectively was his best race?
Texas was a good showing, where O'Ward led 25 laps and he took the lead after he was able to run at a quicker pace before his final pit stop and he came out ahead of Josef Newgarden, but it is the second Belle Isle race. O'Ward was going to finish in the top five, but late cautions gave him second life.

With two late restarts, O'Ward jetted through the field. With three laps to go, he took the lead with a pass on Newgarden, who had led every lap to that point. O'Ward had to pass some of IndyCar's best just to get to Newgarden. In such a hectic and tight environment, no one was stopping O'Ward in those closing laps.

What objectively was his worst race?
The bad news, it was the final race of the year, where O'Ward was spun on the opening lap in the hairpin at Long Beach after Ed Jones was overaggressive. Within 20 laps, O'Ward ground to a halt with a mechanical issue. The team repaired the car as best as it could and he was classified 27th, the worst finish of his IndyCar career.

What subjectively was his worst race?

It is hard to go beyond Long Beach, but for how competitive O'Ward was this season, many races slipped away due to poor tire management. 

The season started with O'Ward on pole position, but he could not conserve his tires early and after leading the first 25 laps, he fell out of the lead and never challenged for the top spot again. At St. Petersburg, he started sixth, but the balance was never there and he quickly fell down the order to finish 19th. He had the same problem at Portland, where he was gifted the top spot when pole-sitter and championship rival Álex Palou blew the chicane, as did Scott Dixon and Alexander Rossi. It was set for O'Ward to potentially strengthen his grip on the championship lead, but he had to stop early for tires and dropped down the order, ultimately finishing 14th.

He also had a dismal performance at Nashville, where he drew two separate penalties, including one for contact with Alexander Rossi entering turn four, the dagger to an already difficult day. 

Patricio O'Ward's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (487 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 118
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 8.3571
Average Finish: 8.3125

It was a curious season for Felix Rosenqvist

Felix Rosenqvist

After two conflicting seasons at Chip Ganassi Racing, Rosenqvist moved to Arrow McLaren SP in a surprising move. The Swede was the 2019 IndyCar Rookie of the Year, and he scored his first victory in 2020, but his overall performance dipped. Things did not get better in Rosenqvist's new outfit.

What objectively was his best race?
Rosenqvist was sixth at Portland after starting fourth, but Rosenqvist was one of the many driver to blow the chicane at the start and shuffle to the back of the field early. However, an early pit stop after being moved to the back of the field, combined with the cautions allowed the strategy to get Rosenqvist back to the front.

What subjectively was his best race?
Nashville was the best race Rosenqvist drove all season. He should have finished in the top five as he kept up with the leaders, but he lost positions late as his tires were gone and he settled for eighth.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rosenqvist led 14 laps in the Indianapolis 500, including with eight laps to go, and yet he finished 27th, one lap down. It was a roll of the dice on strategy, hoping to save fuel and get a caution late to steal victory. Unfortunately, there was no way he was going to save enough fuel to make it to the finish even with a caution. It wasn't a good day for him to begin with, but this was his one chance in IndyCar's biggest race.

What subjectively was his worst race?

It is hard to beat the one that sent you to the hospital. Rosenqvist had a throttle stick going through turn six at Belle Isle and he slammed into the tire barrier, knocking the concrete barrier backward. The good news is Rosenqvist was not seriously injured, but he was not cleared to race the next day and he missed the next race at Road America as well.

 

Felix Rosenqvist's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (205 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 14
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 3
Average Start: 12.5
Average Finish: 16.357

An Early Look Ahead

There are many reasons to be encouraged about AMSP's future, but change will come quick if half the team does not pick up its results. 

O'Ward will need to have a strong follow up season, but he is not the concern. Rosenqvist entered IndyCar and looked to be a future star in 2019. At the end of 2021, we have a shadow of Rosenqvist's 2019 season currently in the series. 

I thought Rosenqvist would have relatively competitive results in his first year with AMSP, but he was rarely on the same page as O'Ward. Knowing AMSP's quick trigger, releasing James Hinchcliffe hastily after 2019 and giving up on Oliver Askew before 2020 was even complete, it is a little surprising it is riding with Rosenqvist, but Rosenqvist has to get results in 2022 or he will not return for a third season. Nico Hülkenberg tested for the team, but the German has said he will not pursue any IndyCar opportunities, and Stoffel Vandoorne plans on testing for AMSP. The organizations is already holding auditions. 

We saw the team has what it takes to run with the big boys. It does have to clean up its strategy and set up. For as much praise the team received, it let many races slip away. Too often O'Ward would have one bad stint and it would cost the team four or five positions. The team's difficulty with tire balance easily cost the team two races. Flip those, especially Portland, and O'Ward is champion. 

For how good O'Ward ran, he only led more than 25 laps in one race, Portland, and he never led the most laps in a race. 

IndyCar is a difficult series. I thought O'Ward would be a top five championship driver this year, but fall from fourth in the championship. He actually ended up jumping to third. O'Ward could be the 2022 champion or he could end up tenth in the championship and neither would be a surprise. There is a world where Álex Palou and Josef Newgarden stay in the top five of the championship while Scott Dixon, Colton Herta, Will Power, Graham Rahal, Alexander Rossi, Romain Grosjean and Simon Pagenaud all jump up ahead of the O'Ward in the championship. IndyCar is that close. I don't expect O'Ward to fall that far, but it is not completely inconceivable. 

We have seen in two full seasons O'Ward can compete anywhere. He won at Texas and he won at Belle Isle. In 38 starts, he has nine podium finishes and 15 top five finishes. Those nine podium finishes have been on five ovals, three street courses and a road course. His top five finishes are seven on ovals, five on road courses and three on street courses. There really isn't a weakness in terms of discipline. The weakness is tire management, but he does not put himself far from the top, meaning even when he stumbles the results do not look that bad. If the team cleans that up, results will get better.

Looking a little further down the road, AMSP has been open to expanding to three cars. O'Ward should be set for the next four or five years. He is testing a Formula One car in December, but I don't think he will be in the McLaren F1 program anytime soon. O'Ward will face increased competition should the team expand. McLaren is taking this program seriously. It could pull in any of a number of drivers from other series. It could be Vandoonre. It could be another driver from Formula One, Formula E, Super Formula or the World Endurance Championship to name a few other series. We are already seeing Alexander Rossi slide from top Andretti driver to second and possibly third in the organization. In a few years, O'Ward could be a similar boat. 

Until we come to that, AMSP is coming off its best season dating back to its time as Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. For all its talk over the last two years, it must back up its 2021 results more than any other team.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Andretti Autosport's 2021 Season

The seventh IndyCar Wrap-Up will look at Andretti Autosport. After an underwhelming 2020 season with five cars, Andretti Autosport was down to four cars after Marco Andretti stepped back from full-time competition. The season started with an early victory, but the results did not come with the same regularity as the organization would have hoped for. The 2021 season ended with better results than the year before, but it cannot be viewed as an overwhelming success. 

Colton Herta was close to great in 2021, but the key word is close

Colton Herta

Herta took on new colors and a new number in 2021, moving to the #26 Gainbridge Honda. He looked like a championship challenger after the opening races, but Herta fell in a rut during the month of May. There were plenty of strong runs that did not reap the reward they deserved. However, Herta ended the season on his highest possible note.

What objectively was his best race?
Herta won three races and he was the best driver in all of them. He led 97 of 100 laps from pole position at St. Petersburg and in the second victory he led 91 of 95 laps from pole position at Laguna Seca. He qualified 14th at Long Beach after topping the first two practice sessions, but he could not be slowed in the season finale. He passed cars with ease and it only took him 34 laps to take the lead. He led 43 of 85 laps, the most in the race, and closed the season with his third victory of the season.

What subjectively was his best race?

It is a tie between the final two races of the season. At Laguna Seca, he ran away from the field on a high degradation circuit when many drivers struggled with the balance of the race car. 

Herta, on the other hand, was in a league of his own. He pulled away from everyone and never looked under duress. Álex Palou got close once Herta caught traffic, but Herta cleared it and Palou could not keep up. No one could. Not often in IndyCar do we see a leader make a green flag pit stop and come out with the lead. Herta did that at Laguna Seca. Sensational stuff.

At Long Beach, Herta was the fastest in the first two practice sessions and then the team made the unwise choice of trying to advance from the first round of qualifying without using the alternate tire. Mistake. He was seventh in his group, did not advance and had to start 14th. 

Once the race started, Herta climbed the order very quickly and he was leading at lap 34. It wasn't the same drive away from the field like we saw at Laguna Seca but Herta's performance alone to get to the front is something you don't usually see. There are plenty of times a quick car does not get out of round one and, though it has been the fastest all weekend, it can only pull out an eighth or maybe get into the top five. Herta led 43 laps, over half the race from 14th on the grid, and he didn't get the lead because of a timely caution. He took the top spot for himself on the track. 

 

What objectively was his worst race?
Herta had two finishes of 22nd in the first three races. The first was Barber when he was caught in the opening lap accident after Josef Newgarden spun. The other was when a wheel bearing failed in the first Texas race while Herta was in contention for a top five finish.

What subjectively was his worst race?

There are two races Herta should have won this year that completely got away from him. 

Herta was brilliant at Nashville. He was the fastest car and I am not sure anyone would have caught him if it just ran like a normal race. Instead, over 41% of the laps were under caution and it allowed the field to be shaken up and Marcus Ericsson to lead late. Herta charged to the front making passes others could not have dreamt of trying and was on Ericsson's gearbox in the closing laps. Unfortunately, Herta overstepped the limit in turn nine late and slammed the barrier with six laps to go. 

Two races later, Herta had led over 100 laps at Gateway and looked to be in control just before the final pit window was to open. A clean stop and Herta was going to be set to retain the lead and likely hold on for victory. This time the driveshaft broke and his race was over 75 laps early. 

 

Colton Herta's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 5th (455 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 382
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 11 
Average Start: 4.3571
Average Finish: 10.125

2021 was not the rebound Alexander Rossi had hoped for

Alexander Rossi

After going winless in 2020, Rossi hoped to return to his winning ways in 2021. However, Rossi proved to be inconsistent and could not get over that hump and return to IndyCar's leading group. There were good days, but Rossi wasn't even the best within the Andretti organization most days let alone the entire NTT IndyCar Series. 

What objectively was his best race?
Rossi's best finish was second at Portland after being shuffled out of the top ten immediately because he did not make the first chicane at the start. The way the race played out with three-stop strategies holding the advantage. Rossi used it and climbed back to the front, getting back to where he started in second.

What subjectively was his best race?

Oof... this is a little harder than you would think because while Rossi was good, he was really just good. He only led two laps all year and that was in the midst of the early pit cycle in the first Belle Isle race because nobody wanted to be on the alternate compound for long. He looked very competitive in that first Belle Isle race but the way the cautions fell did not allow Rossi to get back to the front and he had to settle for seventh. 

Rossi also looked set for a podium at Mid-Ohio before a slow pit stop dropped him to fifth. Neither of those races sound great when figuring out what his subjectively best race was. I guess that makes it Portland. 

 

What objectively was his worst race?
Rossi was 29th in the Indianapolis 500. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

There were a lot of races that did not click for Rossi starting with Indianapolis. 

Of all the races for Rossi to run out of fuel because the first caution of the race occurred at the worst possible time and then it required the car to be completely recycled before it could be restarted, it was Indianapolis. Once restarted, he had already fallen off the lead lap. Needing a caution to possibly be waved back onto the lead lap that caution never came. When a caution did fall, Scott Dixon got back on the lead lap. Rossi was stuck a lap down for the final 400 miles. We never got to see what he could really do. 

But Indianapolis was just one of a handful of lost results for Rossi. Contact with Graham Rahal cost him a top five at St. Petersburg. He was caught in the start accident in the second Texas race. Patricio O'Ward hit him at Nashville, a race where Rossi was likely the second best car to Herta. He slapped the wall at Gateway after he got in the marbles when fighting for a podium position after his final pit stop. Then light contact with Herta spun Rossi off circuit at Laguna Seca. What went right for Rossi this season?

 

Alexander Rossi's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 10th (332 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 2
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 7.1429
Average Finish: 12.313

Ryan Hunter-Reay found rock-bottom

Ryan Hunter-Reay

Andretti Autosport's most successful driver Hunter-Reay entered 2021 in the final year of his contract and off the back of two consecutive seasons without a victory. Needing results, Hunter-Reay had one of the toughest seasons of his IndyCar career.

What objectively was his best race?
Hunter-Reay was fourth at Nashville. He made his way into the top ten quickly and was one of the better cars in this race. Andretti Autosport had all four cars on point in Nashville and without cautions it could have put all four cars in the top five.

What subjectively was his best race?

It is also subjectively his worst race. It is the Indianapolis 500. 

Hunter-Reay was in the top five late and he could have been a player at the end. He was hanging with Álex Palou, Hélio Castroneves and Patricio O'Ward when he locked up the tires entering pit lane for his final pit stop and it earned him a penalty. At that point in the season, Hunter-Reay had not experienced any success. In a sense, this mistake foreshadowed his entire season. It was really the only race it felt like he could have won.

What objectively was his worst race?
Twice Hunter-Reay finished 24th and both results were after first lap accident. The first was the first lap of the season at Barber when he was collected in the Josef Newgarden spin. The second was when he was clipped at the start of Mid-Ohio and wasted a top ten starting position.

What subjectively was his worst race?

Indianapolis is the worst. I am not saying he would have beat Palou and prevented Castroneves from getting his fourth victory, but we saw Hunter-Reay win an Indianapolis 500 late before. He had a chance to be in the top three or four of the Indianapolis 500 with fewer than 100 miles to go and in touching distance of the lead. That opportunity doesn't come around every year. At his age, it might have been the final time Hunter-Reay came that close to greatness.

Ryan Hunter-Reay's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 17th (256)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 14.0
Average Finish: 15.313

It was not a kind year for James Hinchcliffe

James Hinchcliffe

Hinchcliffe returned to full-time compeition after spending 2020 in a part-time role. It was also Hinchcliffe's first full season with Andretti Autosport since 2014. The Canadian's second stint with the team did not come close to matching the heights of his first go-round. 

What objectively was his best race?
Hinchcliffe was third at Nashville after his teammate Herta slammed the barrier. It was a race where all the Andretti cars were sharp and for a moment it looked like Andretti Autosport was going to have a banner day, one that possibly could have matched its famous 1-2-3-4 result at St. Petersburg in 2005.

What subjectively was his best race?

Nashville is Hinchcliffe's only good race. He wasn't close really anywhere else. He was solidly locked in the middle or rear of the field in every other race.

 

What objectively was his worst race?
Another Portland race saw Hinchcliffe taken out in the first turn chicane at the start. Three Portland starts, three opening laps accidents in turn one. This year, Hinchcliffe was classified in 27th.

What subjectively was his worst race?

Can we just say the entire season was horrible? There are no bright spots other than Nashville. There isn't even a race where he qualified fifth, spent much of the race in seventh and then dropped to 11th or 12th because he was on the worst tire compound in the final stint and just slid backward. He was never in that position at any point in 2021. 

It was appallingly bad, a black eye to a career Hinchcliffe was hope to revive this season after being sidelined for majority of 2020 after unceremoniously losing his ride when McLaren took over Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. Hinchcliffe made AMSP look justified for its unpopular decision. That is the last thing he wanted to do this year. 

 

James Hinchcliffe's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 20th (220 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 5 
Average Start: 15.214
Average Finish: 17.438

An Early Look Ahead

Romain Grosjean replaces Hunter-Reay in the #28 DHL Honda. That is the storyline of the offseason. 

Hunter-Reay had been with the team for over a decade. When Hunter-Reay joined Andretti Autosport, Grosjean was between Formula One stints and split 2010 driving in GP2 Series, Auto GP, the FIA GT1 World Championship and as Pirelli's Formula One test driver ahead of it returning to the series in 2011 with the Enstone-based Lotus F1 Team. 

History aside, between Herta's success, Rossi's past and Grosjean's rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing, Andretti Autosport has to win more races and it needs a championship contender to the wire in 2022. Herta could have been in the title fight this year if it wasn't for accidents and mechanical issues. He lost a top five finish at Texas and likely victories if not at least podium finishes at Nashville and Gateway. 

Herta is there, and he isn't going anywhere anytime soon as Andretti Autosport will not purchase Sauber's Formula One program. Grosjean has kinks to work out. The Frenchman did not have good days on street courses and he will be taking on ovals head-on next year. Rossi is confusing. Rossi might not have won in 2020, but he had four consecutive podium finishes prior to the season finale, a St. Petersburg race he dominated before he got into the barrier during the final pit cycle. We didn't see Rossi come that close in 2021. 

As for the fourth car, it will likely be Devlin DeFrancesco, even though DeFrancesco was fifth in Indy Lights, did not win a race and only had two podium finishes. Meanwhile, Andretti's Indy Lights champion Kyle Kirkwood, who tied Greg Moore's record for most victories in an Indy Lights season, is not the front-runner for the IndyCar seat. Kirkwood has tested for the team and could get an opportunity in 2022, but Kirkwood is reportedly free to look for rides elsewhere next season. 

When Herta joined the team, I wondered if Rossi's window had shut in becoming a champion with Andretti Autosport. Throw Grosjean into the equation and Rossi's job only becomes tougher. Three years ago, Rossi was destined to be champion. Now, he is clearly not the top driver in his own team. 

There is pressure across the board for this team, Rossi might face the most. Herta will have his share, especially after how 2021 ended. Grosjean has eyes on him moving from one of IndyCar's minnows to one of the "Big Three." 

All three drivers need to win next year. None of them can really afford a winless season. Grosjean will receive a little more forgiveness, but for Rossi and Herta there are no excuses. This is a pivotal point in Rossi's career. Herta could become one of IndyCar's youngest champions while he was just heavily linked to a sudden Formula One move. Results have to improve. 

Next year marks ten years since Andretti Autosport's most recent championship with Hunter-Reay. Michael Andretti purchased majority stake of this team in 2003. The team won four championships in its first ten seasons. It never went longer than five years between championships before this stretch. If Andretti Autosport does not win the championship this year or does not have at least one driver with a respectable championship fight, I think we need to talk about downgrading Andretti Autosport and admitting IndyCar only has a "Big Two."