Musings From the Weekend: Crowded Hall

The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Felipe Albuquerque and Ricky Taylor won the 24 Hours of Daytona qualifying race. Memo Gidley returned to Daytona in the IMSA Prototype Challenge series. Rallye Monte-Carlo was one for the ages. Dane Cameron tested an IndyCar for Team Penske. IndyCar will have a few more downforce options on the ovals. American Jak Crawford will drive for Prema in Formula Three this season. Circuit of the Americas is being repaved. Peugeot will not contest the FIA World Endurance Championship season opener in Sebring. NASCAR had its first major event of the calendar year. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

Crowded Hall

Another three drivers were inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame on Friday night, including the most popular driver of the 21st century. Along with Dale Earnhardt, Jr., long-time regional racer Red Farmer and seven-time modified champion Mike Stefanik, were included in the class of 2022, delayed a year due to the global pandemic. The inclusion of these three gentlemen brings the NASCAR Hall of Fame up to 58 members, and it is getting a little crowded. 

With Earnhardt, Jr.'s induction, 22 of the top 32 drivers in NASCAR Cup Series victories are in the Hall of Fame. Of those other ten drivers, seven are still active, two are not eligible for induction yet (Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth), and the other is Carl Edwards, who has been eligible since 2020 but has not made it in his first two years of eligibility, despite having more victories than Earnhardt, Jr. in the Cup Series and in NASCAR's second division. The only other drivers with at least 20 NASCAR Cup Series victories and are not in the Hall of Fame are Jim Paschal, Ricky Rudd, Jeff Burton, Jack Smith, and Speedy Thompson. 

Halls of fame are meant to highlight the greatest, not the very good. NASCAR is bordering on allow every driver in. 

Earnhardt, Jr. didn't win a Cup championship, but he did win 26 races, including the Daytona 500 twice. He also won the NASCAR Grand National Series championship twice with 24 victories in that series. His off-track presence cannot be ignored, and he contributed greatly to the series' growth in the 2000s. However, he provides an interesting case study on who gets in and how far success goes. 

NASCAR has evolved in the 25 years since Earnhardt, Jr.'s first national touring division start. The perceptions of NASCAR Grand National Series has changed. It is no longer a secondary series to the Cup level with drivers who can make a career there, but it is more a development series where drivers are supposed to spend two or three years and then move onto Cup. Career second division drivers are not held with the same respect as they were before. 

That goes for Truck drivers as well. The first wave of NASCAR Truck Series drivers, the likes of Ron Hornaday, Jr., Mike Skinner, and Jack Sprague, are held in different company than current career Truck drivers, such as Matt Crafton and Johnny Sauter. 

The NASCAR Hall of Fame has attempted to be encompassing of every series NASCAR sanctions, from the highest level of the Cup Series to the grassroots series split among the different regions of the United States, and the ballot includes more than drivers. Drivers compete for votes against team owners, broadcasters, crew chiefs and other contributors to the series. 

When everyone is included on the same ballot, it is hard to properly recognize the achievements of all these individuals, and honestly it is nonsensical. Stefanik and Earnhardt, Jr. should never be on the same ballot. Stefanik was a great modified driver, but to weigh his success and contributions against the driver who had 80% of the grandstand of Talladega wearing his shirt and attracting multi-million dollar sponsorships ridiculously undermines the complexity of NASCAR. 

The same goes with crew chiefs. Harry Hyde has been on the ballot six consecutive years, and he has still not made it. There have been only five crew chiefs inducted in the first 12 classes! There hasn't been one dedicated pit crew member inducted in 12 years! The drivers might do 90% of the work in the race, but pit crews also decide who wins a race and who doesn't. How is it possible that in 12 years not one pit crew member has been inducted from any team? Kyle Larson's pit crew was praised for getting him out first after the final round of pit stops at Phoenix and aiding Larson win the championship in 2021. Larson will be in the NASCAR Hall of Fame, but how many of those pit crew members will join him?

Baseball doesn't put players on the same ballot as managers and executives. Hockey splits the ballot between players and builders, which is open to anyone who has contributed to the development of the sport. 

NASCAR is more than just the drivers, and it is more than the Cup Series and the national series. Everyone should not be lumped into one pool of candidates. An adjustment has been made with the ballot split between the "modern era" and the "pioneer era," but more needs to be done.

It also must be acknowledged that the NASCAR Hall of Fame is reaching its limit when it comes to Cup drivers. The only champion not elected that is eligible is Bill Rexford, champion in NASCAR's second Cup season, who had one victory in 36 career starts. I feel like Earnhardt, Jr. is the floor when it comes to Cup drivers. He had a few strong years, but he was only in the top five of the championship four times in 18 seasons as a regular. Excluding 2016, when he missed the second half of the season due to concussions, he finished outside the top twenty in the championship three times! Meanwhile, Carl Edwards had six top five championship finishes in 12 full seasons and his worst championship finish in a full season was 15th! Edwards will be on the ballot for a third year while Earnhardt, Jr. got in on his first attempt.

Earnhardt, Jr. does make the case easier for some drivers to get in the Hall of Fame. Clint Bowyer had three top five championship finishes and finished outside the top twenty in the championship only once in 15 seasons. Is Bowyer a Hall of Famers? He shouldn't be, but at the rate drivers are going in, Bowyer will be inducted before this decade is over. 

Jeff Burton had four top five championship finishes and the only two full seasons he was outside the top twenty in the championship were his first two Cup seasons with Stavola Brothers Racing. Burton has 21 victories, never won the Daytona 500, but he won the Coca-Cola 600 twice and Southern 500 once, two races Earnhardt, Jr. never won. 

Is Burton a hall of famer? He fits in firmly in the very good category, and that shouldn't be enough to make the hall of fame. Does Burton's 27 victories in the second division do enough to put him over the edge? We can try and make it about the totality of a career, but if you are going to spend majority of your career, nearly two decades in the Cup Series, then Cup Series success, or lack thereof, must carry greater weight.

Simultaneously, what about Greg Biffle? Zero Cup championships like Earnhardt, Jr. and Burton; three top five championship finishes, fewer than Earnhardt, Jr. and Burton; 19 Cup victories, fewer than Earnhardt, Jr. and Burton; but Biffle has a Grand National Series championship and won 20 races in that series, and he has a Truck championship and 17 victories in that series. Biffle is one of three drivers with championships in each of NASCAR's lower two national series, he is one of two drivers with at least 15 victories in all three series alongside Kyle Busch, and Biffle won the Southern 500 twice while the only time he finished outside the top twenty in the championship was his final season.

Is Biffle really one of the greatest NASCAR drivers all-time? The numbers say one thing, but the mind says another. With at least three individuals guaranteed induction every year, there is going to be a load of people getting in. Some will be deserved, Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus, eventually Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, but others will feel like they were included because they just happened to be the best left on those ballots and the spots must be filled.

This is a futile cause and bound to lose significancy quickly if everyone is getting in for doing anything. 

We don't need halls of fame yet feel compelled to construct enshrinements for sporting excellence. It is an unnecessary exercise and eventually becomes a habit of just recognizing individuals regardless of if they are truly the best. We can still have a museum and properly chronicle each driver, owner, crew chief and crew member, and any other member who has participated and contributed to the growth of NASCAR or whatever motorsports it may be, but we don't need to apotheosize these individuals. We know who the greats are without having vote or hold a ceremony.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Wayne Taylor Racing, but did you know...

Sébastien Loeb won Rallye Monte-Carlo, his 80th World Rally Championship victory, his eighth Rallye Monte-Carlo victory and his first victory since the 2018 Rally Catalunya.

Chase Sexton won the Supercross race from San Diego, his first career 450cc Supercross victory.

Coming Up This Weekend

The 60th 24 Hours of Daytona

Formula E opens with its Diriyah doubleheader.

Supercross returns to Anaheim.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

We conclude the first half of the 2022 IndyCar Team Previews with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The consistent team saw more good results in 2021, but it was a year of changes. For the first time since 2014, RLLR did not win a race. It had a car start in the top five on only two occasions. After two successive seasons with both cars finishing in the top ten of the championship, only one made it in 2021. 

Graham Rahal will be back after finishing seventh in the championship, but he will have new teammates in 2022, as Takuma Sato left the organization after four years and four victories together, including the RLLR's second Indianapolis 500 triumph. Minus one driver, but plus two entries, the three-car lineup will feature Christian Lundgaard in the #30 Honda with Jack Harvey moving over from Meyer Shank Racing to take the #45 Honda on a full-time basis.

2021 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 3rd (Texas)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 5th (Portland and Laguna Seca)

Championship Finishes: 7th (Graham Rahal), 11th (Takuma Sato), 24th (Santino Ferrucci), 29th (Oliver Askew), 37th (Christian Lundgaard)

Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals Honda

From 18th on the grid, Rahal worked his way to a seventh-place result in the opening race of the 2021 season at Barber Motorsports Park. A top five finish was lost after he and Alexander Rossi made contact at St. Petersburg, but Rahal bounced back with a fifth in the first Texas race and a third in the Sunday race with Rahal leading late. A fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis had Rahal fifth in the championship entering the Indianapolis 500.  

Though he qualified in the middle of the field in 18th, Rahal had one fo the best cars of the race and worked his way into the leading pack as the race hit the halfway point. It looked like Rahal was going to be one of the drivers to beat down the stretch before his pit stop on lap 119. The stop was good, but the left rear tire was unsecured, and it came off the car while Rahal was on the access road. He spun across the track and into the turn two barrier, just as it appeared he would return to the race somewhere in the top five. 

Devastating result behind him, Rahal was fifth in both Belle Isle races. He was 11th at Road America but he would finish in the top ten of the next three races, including a fifth in Nashville. The streak of good results ended early at Gateway after contacting with Ed Jones on lap five. 

Just like after the Indianapolis 500, Rahal followed up a retirement with an impressive race. This time at Portland, where Rahal made the chicane at the opening lap and soon found himself in the lead. He led 36 laps on a two-stop strategy. A mid-race caution allowed the field to close in and increased the difficulty of the strategy paying off. Rahal had to save fuel down the stretch and lost many positions, dropping to tenth. 

With each stint, Rahal was a little faster at Laguna Seca and he worked his way from 12th to fourth. He worked his way up to second at Long Beach through a combination of pit strategy and cautions, but just before his final stop, another caution came out and it shuffled Rahal from second to 20th. He worked his way up to 16th by the time the checkered flag fell. 

Numbers to Remember:

26: Starts since the last time Rahal started and finished in the top five in a race (2020 Grand Prix of Indianapolis, fourth to second)

11: Consecutive seasons with at least one podium finish.

3: Seasons with 50 laps or more led in a 15-year IndyCar career.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Rahal hits it on his qualifying form and is constantly making it to the final round of qualifying on road courses. St. Petersburg starts with a top five results before picking up a victory in Texas. He is on the podium again at Long Beach and in the top five at Barber. He is again on the podium in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and he goes two-for-two on ovals with an Indianapolis 500 victory. 

How does Rahal follow up that Indianapolis 500? By becoming the first driver to win the race after Indianapolis since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2000 with Rahal winning at Belle Isle for the third time in his career. He cools off with just a podium at Road America, but his red-hot season sees him score another home victory around Mid-Ohio. 

Toronto is a bad day, somewhere outside the top ten. Nothing lasts forever, but he recovers with a pair of top five results at Iowa. He is in the top ten in the second IMS road course race and gets back in the top five at Nashville and Gateway. He survives turn one at Portland, completes every lap but finishes in the top ten and closes the season with a top five result at Laguna Seca.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Another year knocking on the door for victory and falling short with a few podium finishes, a few more top five finishes and ultimately ending up somewhere between seventh and tenth in the championship. But victories are possible.

Rahal has had plenty of close calls only for one thing to go wrong, whether that be a caution against his favor or lapped traffic or just having a poor starting position. With his pace, things are bound to go right eventually, and he will end up back on the top step of the podium. The challenge is to have enough of those days to become a championship challenger again. 

Qualifying pace could continue to hamper the team and prevent him from challenge for many race victories. Rahal could still have those incredible drives from 14th to fifth or 16th to sixth, but those races will keep him on the outside of the fight at the top that likely feature Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta, Will Power, Álex Palou and Alexander Rossi. 

The consistency will be there, but it is difficult to see it being at that highest level for all 17 races. It could be just off and that would still be a good season but fall short of a great one. 

Christian Lundgaard - #30 Mi-Jack Honda

Though remembered for his IndyCar debut, Lundgaard spent most of 2021 in the Formula Two championship driving for ART Grand Prix. In his second full season, the Dane opened with finishes of sixth and second in the Bahrain sprint races but would not score points in the next six races. He was third in the first Silverstone sprint race, but he had only 26 points from the first 12 races.

After Silverstone, there was a two-month gap in the Formula Two season, and Lundgaard was allowed to make his IndyCar debut in RLLR's #45 Honda at the August Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race. Though unfamiliar with the car and track, he was seventh in his first practice session. He was second in his round one qualifying group and wound up fourth on the grid in the two-round qualifying format used for this weekend. The team admitted it left a set of fresh tires unused thinking the third round, the Fast Six, was going to happen. 

Despite the minor blunder, Lundgaard ran well in his opening stint and led two laps before his first pit stop. He did lose positions going long on his first stint, and he struggled with the alternate tire compound. Though he fell down the order, Lundgaard was respectable the entire race and finished 12th. 

The Formula Two season resumed at Monza in early September and Lundgaard was third in the opening sprint race of the weekend. The strong start was an aberration, as Lundgaard only scored 24 points in the final 11 races of the season. He finished in the points of only three of eight feature races with his best feature race result being seventh in the significantly abbreviated Jeddah race, a five-lap race after delays for track repairs and accidents. 

After finishing seventh in the Formula Two championship with two race victories, six podium finishes, nine top five finishes and a pole position in 2021, Lundgaard dropped to 12th in the championship with no victories and his three podium finishes being his only top five results.

Numbers to Remember:

0: Danish drivers have finished in the top five of an IndyCar race.

12: Top five finishes in 49 Formula Two starts.

9: Of those 12 top five finishes were podium finishes

7: Of those nine podium results came in sprint races.

25: Combined starts for Danish drivers in IndyCar history.

0: Rookies have won an IndyCar race driving for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.

What does a championship season look like for him?

After his impressive debut in 2021, Lundgaard figures out the alternate tire compound and is in the top five at St. Petersburg. He finishes outside the top ten at Texas but completes every lap and gains valuable experience. He is in the top ten at Long Beach and jumps onto the podium at Barber. 

Returning to the IMS road course, he wins the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and has a respectable Indianapolis 500, finishing somewhere just inside the top ten. He is on the podium again at Belle Isle before scoring a top five at Road America. RLLR gets a victory at home, but it is Lundgaard finishing first at Mid-Ohio before he scores a top five at Toronto.

Iowa is a split weekend, one average race and another where he finishes in the top ten. After winning on the IMS road course in May, Lundgaard is in the top five in August. He is on the podium in Nashville and gets another top ten result on an oval at Gateway. He finishes strong with a Portland victory and a podium result at Laguna Seca.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Lundgaard is the preseason rookie of the year favorite. He is the rookie with the best combination of team and talent, and we already have one outing where he looked comfortable with the car. For most the other rookies, they either aren't in the best outfits and don't have the support around them to truly prop them up or they have shown the level of talent we have seen to surpass Lundgaard. 

There will be a few race weekends where Lundgaard is on it and blending in with the top drivers. In those cases, he will be leading the RLLR trio. A victory isn't out of the question. It might not happen, but there could a race where he starts in the top three and is in the top three for the entire race. There could be a race where he leads a healthy portion of the laps.

Standing in Lundgaard's way is he will still be getting used to the tires. These will be longer races than he is used to in a physically demanding car lacking power steering, and all but one of these tracks are a complete unknown to him. A few tracks will trip him up, most likely the street courses, and he is a virgin when it comes to ovals. Some drivers take to them well. Others cannot get to come to grips with the risk. 

Lundgaard should be on the edge of the top ten, just where Takuma Sato was in this car a year ago.  

Jack Harvey - #45 Hy-Vee Honda

After having a slow start to the 2020 season, Harvey's 2021 season started wonderfully. He had two top ten finishes in the first three races and his worst result was 11th. A fourth in St. Petersburg highlighted the strong start. It put Harvey fifth in the championship entering the second race of the Texas doubleheader. Unfortunately, a wheel bearing failure ended his race just before halfway while he was in the top ten. It was the start of three months of poor results. 

A botched pit stop cost him a podium finish in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He was not a factor in the Indianapolis 500 and finished 18th and was invisible in the Belle Isle doubleheader. Things appeared to be turning around at Road America when he qualified third. Harvey was solidly in the top ten when the team decided to go off-strategy and stopped a handful of laps before the final pit window opened. This curious call forced Harvey to make an extra pit stop and he went from possibly sixth or seventh to 17th in the final results. 

Harvey could not find the pace at Mid-Ohio, and another question pit strategy call shuffled him from the front at Nashville to 15th. He dropped to 14th in the championship after the eight-race stretch. 

He bounced back with a sixth in the second IMS road course race and was tenth at Gateway. A long first stint help lifted him to a fourth-place finish at Portland from 20th on the grid. He was 15th at Laguna Seca but closed the season with a drive from 25th to seventh at Long Beach.

Numbers to Remember:

3: Harvey's championship position has improved by at least three positions every season he has been in IndyCar. 

4: Retirements in 49 IndyCar starts.

28: Drivers have taken 50 starts or more to get their first career victory. 

2: Of those 28 drivers have won an IndyCar championship (Jimmy Vasser and Josef Newgarden)

What does a championship season look like for him?

Harvey is back to his gangbuster qualifying form and wins pole position at St. Petersburg and it leads to a podium result. He is in the top ten at Texas and he starts on the front row at Long Beach before taking his first career victory. 

Another pair of top five finishes follow at Barber and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and he finishes in the top ten in the Indianapolis 500. He scores a podium result at Belle Isle before getting his second victory of the season at Road America. He makes it three consecutive top five finishes at Mid-Ohio. 

Results dip a little with him just finishing inside the top ten at Toronto and both Iowa races, but he wins on the IMS road course in July and that leads off a three-race stretch of top five finishes. In Portland, he is on the podium, and he closes the season with a strong day at Laguna Seca, leading laps but driving smart and securing the championship with a podium result.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

RLLR might have the most balanced driver lineup in IndyCar. Harvey's expectations are in line with Rahal and Lundgaard. 

He should be somewhere close to the top ten on a regular basis. There should be a few races where things click, and he is at the front the entire time. RLLR is known for its qualifying woes, but Harvey's ability can overcome the deficit and put the team further up the starting grid. Strategy choices will be more practical and that will lead to good results for Harvey. 

A victory is possible, especially if he gets on the front row. If he is a regular top ten starter, he could be a regular top ten finish. The one looming concern is Harvey has three or four races go wrong a season. All those results are not the driver's fault, but some do fall on him. He doesn't tear up equipment, he has only five retirements in his first 49 starts, one of those was a wheel bearing failure and another one was contact from another car out of his control at Road America in 2020, but there always seems to be a race where strategy befalls him. 

This is a different team, and RLLR does not have a notable history of the poor strategy choices like the ones Harvey had in 2021. Better decisions from the timing stand could lead to the best results of Harvey's IndyCar career, and it could lead to multiple RLLR cars in the top ten of the championship.

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren SP

We are moving back toward the front of the grid with the fourth IndyCar Team Preview. Arrow McLaren SP had a breakout season of sorts in 2021. After a solid 2020 season with Patricio O'Ward, the pairing went a step further in 2021. O'Ward picked up his first career victory and then scored his second. He led the championship for a few rounds and was a regular top five finisher. Unfortunately, O'Ward did not get the same top results late in the season, and damage suffered at Long Beach dropped him to third in the final championship standings.

While O'Ward led the way, his new teammate Felix Rosenqvist struggled in his first season with AMSP. Rosenqvist couldn't match his teammate's finishes, and a bad accident at Belle Isle sidelined the Swede for a few races. AMSP has kept this combination together with championship aspiration being obtainable, but it will require going a step further for all parties involved.

2021 Arrow McLaren SP Review

Wins: 2 (Texas, Belle Isle II)

Poles: 3 (Barber, Belle Isle I, August IMS road course race)

Championship Finishes: 3rd (Patricio O'Ward), 21st (Felix Rosenqvist), 31st (Juan Pablo Montoya), 42nd (Kevin Magnussen)

Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow Chevrolet

After ending 2020 as one of the most promising young drivers, O'Ward started 2021 asserting himself as a driver of the present, taking pole position at Barber. He led the opening stint, but tire preservation was his weak point and he finished fourth. Tires were a struggle at St. Petersburg, and he finished 19th. 

At Texas, O'Ward kept up his oval form and opened the weekend with a third-place finish. The next day, O'Ward ran at the front, and his aggressiveness paid off. He was able to take the lead in the final 25 laps and took his first career victory. 

His love-hate relationship with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course continued with a 15th-place finish, but on the oval, O'Ward was a contender. He spent most of the race at the front and led. He was never too far from the lead but didn't quite have enough and finished fourth. The results remained positive at Belle Isle. Another pole position came in race one, but the frenetic nature of that race dropped him to third. He was looking at a top five finish in race two before a pair of late cautions. O'Ward had the legs late and made up positions. He worked his way to second and overtook Josef Newgarden with three laps to go for the lead. O'Ward held on to become the first repeat winner of the season. 

Top ten finishes followed at Road America and Mid-Ohio, but Nashville was a tough day and a pair of penalties limited O'Ward to 13th. He was on pole position again for the second IMS road course race, but again did not have the tire life when it mattered most and finished fifth. 

A runner-up result at Gateway gave him the championship lead and fortunate chaos at the start of Portland moved O'Ward from the back of the top ten to the lead at the start. He looked set to control the championship. But cautions and pit strategy went against O'Ward, and he dropped to 14th as Álex Palou won the race. At Laguna Seca, O'Ward was fifth, but Palou was second. O'Ward still had a chance at Long Beach and qualified ahead of Palou. But opening lap contact in the hairpin from Ed Jones derailed his title hopes and subsequent gearbox issues were the final nail in the coffin

Numbers to Remember:

12.6: Average finish on street courses in 2021.

39.473: Top five finish percentage in 38 starts.

2013: The last season to feature driver not from one of the "Big Three" teams in the top three in the championship before O'Ward did it last season. Before O'Ward, it was Simon Pagenaud with Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports.

What does a championship season look like for him?

O'Ward picks up where he left off in 2021. He doesn't have many, if any, off days. He wins early and he wins often. He starts the season with a victory at St. Petersburg or at least a podium result. He wins at Texas again. This time he pulls out at least a top ten finish in Long Beach and then he gets another podium in Barber.

In May, he gets at least a pair of top five finishes, and he has a top five in Belle Isle. He wins at Road America, finishes in the top ten at Mid-Ohio and Toronto. He wins one of two Iowa races and is in the top five of the other race. Either way, he extends his championship lead before arriving to Nashville. 

He gets a top ten in Nashville, a podium result at Gateway and then closes the season with top ten results in Portland and Laguna Seca because that is all he will need, and he will not have to be all that flashy.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

A championship is very realistic for O'Ward. He nearly had a hand firmly grasp on the trophy last season when Álex Palou slipped up and it looked like it was going to be O'Ward championship early at Portland. Then that race took a turn, O'Ward fell back, Palou moved forward, and the Mexican driver was chasing the Spaniard for the final two races.

O'Ward didn't make many mistakes in 2021. If anything, his worst results were out of his control. He hasn't been a liability on track at any point in his IndyCar career. That isn't going to change now. He could put together a five-victory, eight-podium, 13-top five finish season with every race ending in the top ten or him having only one result outside the top ten. 

Arrow McLaren SP is up for the challenge and kept up with Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske for the entire 2021 season. O'Ward was ahead of the Penske quartet for practically the entire season until the final race went sideways. 

There is room for improvement, notably tire management, but O'Ward can conquer that. If he does, he will be far more dangerous than he was last year, and everyone else will need to be close to perfect to take the title.

Felix Rosenqvist - #7 Arrow Chevrolet

After a good, but not great, sophomore season with Chip Ganassi Racing, Rosenqvist moved to AMSP looking to spark his IndyCar career in year three. Unfortunately, that spark set off an explosion in race one. Rosenqvist was caught in the opening lap incident and settled for 21st. Things were better, but not spectacular at St. Petersburg, finishing 12th. 

He could have finished in the top five in the first Texas race if it was not for accident avoidance in the pit lane, swerving into the grass to avoid Marcus Ericsson, who only had three tires on the car. Rosenqvist was forced to settle for 13th. Coincidentally, Rosenqvist lost his right rear tire after it was not properly secured in the second Texas race and finished 16th.

Rosenqvist was 17th and 27th in the two Indianapolis races. He led the Indianapolis 500 late with his aggressive fuel-save strategy, but he was 11 laps short. In the Saturday Belle Isle race, Rosenqvist's throttle stuck in the middle of turn six and he accelerated straight into the tire barrier, knocking the concrete barrier backward. The race was red-flagged for a lengthy period. He was taken to hospital and released the next day. However, he would miss the Sunday race and the Road America race that followed. 

Back in the car at Mid-Ohio, Rosenqvist was spun on the opening lap at the start and finished 23rd. His first good day came at Nashville, an eighth-place result, but he was in contention for a top five. It was not the start of a strong finish to 2021. He would finish sixth at Portland but was 13th or worse in the other four of five races to close out the year.

Numbers to Remember:

10: Top ten finishes in his rookie season in 2019.

7: Top ten finishes in the last two seasons (28 starts)

7: As in seventh best average finish among IndyCar regulars in 2019.

18: As in 18th best average finish among IndyCar regulars in 2021.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Rosenqvist, combined with his new engineer, the legendary Craig Hampson, knock it out of the box from the start. The #7 Arrow McLaren SP team takes victory off the crack of the bat in St. Petersburg, a solid top ten day follows in Texas, before another podium result in Long Beach and a top five in Barber. 

He takes his second victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis before having his best Indianapolis 500 with at least a top ten finish. He is on the podium again in Belle Isle, making it a perfect three podium visits in three street course starts. He wins again at Road America and has a top five in Mid-Ohio before getting another top five in Toronto and managing two top ten finishes in Iowa.

In Nashville, his street course prowess continues, and he gets his fourth victory of the season. He keeps his nose clean and finishes in the top ten at Gateway. He puts himself in a solid position for the championship at Portland with another top five result, but he ends with a flourish, his fifth victory of the season at Laguna Seca.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

The last two seasons have been rough for Rosenqvist, and 2021 was hopefully rock-bottom for the Swede. It wasn't just being thoroughly defeated within the AMSP battle, but Rosenqvist was banged up and missed two races. 

We have all seen enough from Rosenqvist to know he is better than 21st in the championship. A bounce back is more likely than him struggling again. Hampson taking the helm on the timing stand should help significantly, and Hampson alone could make Rosenqvist a championship contender. But I think this team will settle for top ten in the championship with at least one victory and being closer to O'Ward. 

 

It is going to be hard to beat O'Ward. Even if Rosenqvist repeated his rookie season in 2019, I am not sure that would be enough for Rosenqvist to top his teammate. Rosenqvist must save his ride and show he can at least be an adequate second driver in the team, one that AMSP cannot replace. He can achieve that. It's not the most glamorous thing ensuring a number two role, but it can save his career from a tailspin.  

A victory would go a long way, but if he is regularly in the top ten, challenging for a top ten championship position and shadowing O'Ward most of the year, Rosenqvist will earn a third season with this organization.

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: A.J. Foyt Racing

After spending the first two 2022 IndyCar Team Previews at the front of the grid, we now go to the bottom of the grid and the team that has settled into the cellar, A.J. Foyt Racing. It is approaching nine years since the team's most recent victory. It has three podium finishes in the 147 races since that victory. The team has one championship finisher in the top 15 in the last five seasons. It hasn't had a top ten championship finisher since Airton Daré was ninth in the 2002 Indy Racing League season. 

After trying a combination of veterans and youth, youth and veterans, veterans and veterans, rookies and past champions, you name it, Foyt has tried it. Foyt is giving youth and youth a shot this season and expanding to three cars. Dalton Kellett has experience, two-dozen IndyCar starts, all with the Foyt organization, to his name. Kellett will be back for his third season with the team. Joining the Canadian is the reigning Indy Lights champion, Kyle Kirkwood. Tatiana Calderón will drive Foyt's third entry on the road and street courses, with unannounced driver taking the oval races.

2021 A.J. Foyt Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 5th (Barber and Gateway)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 5th (St. Petersburg)

Championship Finishes: 16th (Sébastien Bourdais), 23rd (Dalton Kellett), 33rd (J.R. Hildebrand), 36th (Charlie Kimball)

Dalton Kellett - #4 K-LINE Insulators Chevrolet

Kellett opened the 2021 IndyCar season setting a career best finish, an 18th at Barber. He was 23rd at St. Petersburg, but then was 18th again in the first Texas race, his first visit to the track and it was his first lead lap finish. Things took a sudden stop in the second Texas race when Kellett was involved in the start accident.

The good results were tough to come by. He was 20th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and then 23rd in the Indianapolis 500. He was 18th again in the first Belle Isle race, but he would finish outside the top twenty in the next five races. He was particularly off in the August IMS road course race. 

A significant number of accidents in Gateway allowed Kellett up the order and he took advantage of the opportunity, finishing 12th but was sniffing a top ten result. He came down to Earth in the final three races with his best result being 19th. 

Numbers to Remember:

1: Top fifteen finish in 24 IndyCar starts.

2: Top twenty starting positions in 24 IndyCar starts.

3: Lead lap finishes last season.

18: Finishes in 24 IndyCar starts.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Every single road and street course race becoming a wet race and Kellett switching to wet tires at the right time each time to come out in the lead or in the top five and then finishing in those positions with no other drive having more than two victories, five podium finishes and seven top five finishes in a season. 

On the ovals, Kellett replicates his 2021 Gateway race each time and on the edge of the top ten every time out. Some races he sneaks into the top ten and in others he is 12 or 13th but he is always in the top 15.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

It doesn't look good. Never expected to accomplish much in IndyCar, in about two seasons Kellett has been a regular cellar dweller and bringing up the bottom of the field. In 2021, he had competition in Jimmie Johnson and Cody Ware. While Kellett was coming out on top in some of those battles early on, he started losing to those two toward the end of the season.

Driving for Foyt doesn't help, but Kellett is going to be at the rear of the field again. He is going to be struggling to break into the top 20. Most race weekends he will toward the bottom of the timesheet and likely be a regular on the last row of the grid. Among the drivers who started every race in 2021, Kellett scored the fewest points. If Kellett starts every race again in 2022, I expect him to hold that dubious honor again. 

Kellett had better days in 2021 than in his part-time season in 2020, but he wasn't fighting for top fifteen positions on a regular basis. Twelfth was flattering at Gateway considering he was gifted six positions in the first 65 laps due to drivers caught in accidents. There could be a few races he is in the top 20 on speed and ends up finishing 16th or 17th, but those days are as good as it gets.

Tatiana Calderón - #11 ROKiT Chevrolet

Calderon has spent the last two years combining Super Formula with LMP2 sports car outings. 

In 2021, she moved into the FIA World Endurance Championship with the Richard Mille Racing Team and co-drivers Sophia Flörsch and Beitske Vasser. She participated in five of six races, as she missed the first Bahrain race due to her Super Formula commitments. Her best finish with the team was sixth in class at Portimão, the second race of the season. 

For the second consecutive year, Calderón drove for Drago Corse with ThreeBond in Super Formula, a single-car, Honda-powered team. She was 13th in the Fuji season opener, and 17th in the first Suzuka race, but missed the next three races to focus on her sports car responsibilities. She was back for the penultimate round at Motegi, a retirement, and she ended the season with an 18th-place finish at Suzuka.

Numbers to Remember:

12: Road and street course races Calderón will participate in this IndyCar season. 

5: Tracks on the 2022 IndyCar schedule Calderón has raced at before, all in the then-Star Mazda series (St. Petersburg, Barber, Road America, Iowa and Laguna Seca).

1: Victory in the Florida Winter Series, a one-time series organized by the Ferrari Driver Academy in 2014. Other drivers in that race included Max Verstappen, Lance Stroll, Nicholas Latifi, Ed Jones, Antonio Fuoco and Raffaele Marciello.

15.222: Average finish in nine Super Formula starts between 2020 and 2021 with her best finish being 12th twice. 

What does a championship season look like for him?

Seeing as how Calderón is only running road and street courses, she is giving up five races to score points, including the possible double points race in the Indianapolis 500. 

In 2021, Álex Palou scored 549 points to score the championships. If Calderón won all 12 of her starts with the maximum 54 points, she would have 648 points. To match Palou's output, she would need to average 45.75 points per start. Basically, she would need six victories and six runner-up finishes at worse to win the championship. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Calderón was at the back of Super Formula. That will not change in IndyCar. Palou might have moved from Super Formula and won the IndyCar championship within two seasons, but Palou was also at the front of Super Formula. Palou's rookie season wasn't a historic season. He had a few good races, a few other promising races where the results did not match and a few other tough races. 

It doesn't help that she is driving for the worst team on the grid. Her hope is to beat her teammate Kellett on a regular basis. It is a low bar to clear, and even if she beats it that doesn't mean the results will be that impressive. Calderón has done a good job of staying on track and completing laps in her career. It would not be surprising if she is running at the end of all of her starts and no worse than a lap down. If she does that, a few top 20 finishes might fall her way, but with 26 cars prepared to be entered for the entire season, it is hard to see her sneaking into the top 15. 

The oval driver is still unknown for this car. Foyt's oval pace is not significantly better than its road/street course pace, but, depending on the driver, it could be the team's best chance at quality finishes.

Kyle Kirkwood - #14 ROKiT Chevrolet

After spending 2020 in sports car racing after the Indy Lights season was cancelled, Kirkwood returned to single-seater racing with Andretti Autosport in Indy Lights. 

Kirkwood had a tough opening weekend at Barber Motorsports Park. Early contact knocked him down to ninth in race one and he was fifth in race two. He rebounded with a victory and second at St. Petersburg and took a slight step back with a pair of fourth-place results on the IMS road course. 

From there, Kirkwood was near flawless. He swept the Belle Isle races. He won the first Road America race and was going to finish on the podium before a late mechanical issue knocked him back to 12th. He swept the Mid-Ohio races, was second in both Gateway race and then was second and first in Portland. Another sweep came at Laguna Seca and a victory in the opening race of the October Mid-Ohio weekend clinched him the title.

Numbers to Remember:

62: Winning percentage in 50 Road to Indy starts.

5: Kirkwood is one of five drivers with at least ten Indy Lights victories. The others are Greg Moore, Tommy Byrne, Alex Lloyd and Paul Tracy. Kirkwood tied Moore's record for most victories in a single Indy Lights season last year with ten victories.

18: The best championship finish for an A.J. Foyt Racing rookie is 18th (Billy Boat in 1996-97 and Matheus Leist 2018).

What does a championship season look like for him?

Kirkwood continues his Road to Indy form and is immediately in the top five from the drop of the green flag at St. Petersburg. Texas is his first big oval race, and he keeps his nose clean and pulls out a top ten result. Long Beach is a solid day with a top ten finish and the same goes at Barber. At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, the familiarity of the course is in his favor, and he is on the podium. His Indianapolis 500 debut sees him as the fastest rookie qualifier and then the top rookie finisher somewhere in the top ten. 

He hits his stride at the start of June, and he starts to win races. He pulls off his first career victory at Road America and keeps up his unbeaten streak at Mid-Ohio. He makes it three consecutive victories at Toronto. A pair of top five finishes follow at Iowa and he is on the podium again on the IMS road course. 

The season closes with a top ten a Nashville, another top five at Gateway and victories at Portland and Laguna Seca. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

All the Road to Indy success in the world is not going to turn A.J. Foyt Racing into a race winner. Kirkwood has been known for winning ever since he joined the Road to Indy system. This will be an awakening for a driver that is used to winning nearly a dozen times a year. 

He will regularly be outside the top ten, and there will be frustrating days where nothing works for him despite endless changes being made on the car. A few days will work out and progress will be made. The best days are going to be tuning a car into a top ten contender and those top ten finishes will feel ten times better than any previous Road to Indy victory. 

Sébastien Bourdais drove this car last year, a four-time champion ranked in the top ten in victories, and Bourdais could only finish 16th in the championship. Kirkwood is talented, but he isn't better than Bourdais at the moment. Anything close to matching Bourdais' output would be incredible. Bourdais had two top five finishes and four top ten finishes. Four top ten finishes would be great for Kirkwood, and they don't even need to be top five results. 

Many champions have had tough first years in IndyCar. Dario Franchitti had one top ten finish, a ninth. Josef Newgarden had zero top ten finishes. Álex Palou might have been third in his third career start, but Palou had only three top ten finishes all season. This season will not define Kirkwood's career and he could have a few races that outshine his overall points total. 

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.

Musings From the Weekend: You Must Compromise

The Bathurst 12 Hour has moved to May 15. The New Zealand Grand Prix and the Toyota Racing Series season has been cancelled. It will be the first time the race has not been held since 2001. Supercross had a very different second race of the season, and Kawasaki's Jason Anderson won in Oakland, his first victory since 2018. An American set a Dakar Rally record. Jacques Villeneuve keeps talking. Robert Wickens will be full-time in Michelin Pilot Challenge's TCR class driving a Hyundai for Bryan Herta Autosport. Conor Daly will be full-time in IndyCar at Ed Carpenter Racing. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

You Need to Compromise

Only six weeks out from the 2022 IndyCar season, and this past week the broadcast start times were announced for the 17 races. We knew the networks, an NBC heavy season with 14 races on the flagship network with USA showing two races and one race exclusively on the Peacock streaming platform. With nearly every race on network television, the 2022 season is set up for the most exposure the series has ever seen. Times aside, IndyCar is in a good position, and yet that didn't stop the masses from expressing dissatisfaction. 

Seven of 17 broadcasts will start at 12:30 p.m. ET or earlier, including an 11:00 a.m. start for the Indianapolis 500. Eight seven races will begin at 3:00 p.m. ET, including one of the USA races, Belle Isle, and the Peacock race, Toronto. The two exceptions are the first Iowa race, which will have a 4:00 p.m. ET start time and Gateway, the second USA race, which will start at 6:00 p.m.

It is a consistent schedule when it comes to start times. There are plenty of early races, which American race fans like. Fourteen of 17 races are on one network. It is fan-friendlier than many other years, but there was a murmur of discontent when the start times were announced. 

"Texas should be a night race" even though it will now be in March. 

"Iowa must be night races" even though these are a Saturday-Sunday doubleheader.

"Why isn't Gateway at night?" even though it is an evening start. 

We generally accept that some people will never be happy. A person could be angry about their wages, be gifted a billion dollars and then start complaining about taxes. Talk about living with your head in the sand! In this case, IndyCar's schedule has changed, and some cannot accept that.

Texas isn't an early June race anymore. It moved to March, and it wanted a network television spot. An NBC broadcast is more attractive to a potential race title sponsor, and IndyCar isn't big enough to justify any primetime network time slot. IndyCar is barely cracking a million people per broadcast. The average audience must be tripled before IndyCar could possibly get a primetime NBC race. Also, 2021 saw some good ratings for noon-ish start times. A few of those were NASCAR lead-ins and IndyCar's Texas trek will be during the Fox portion of the NASCAR schedule, but it is better than not being on network at all. 

The same applies to Iowa, and frankly, I am not sure how any doubleheader could have a night race. They would both have to be night races. The teams would not agree to a 8:00 pm local start time on a Saturday night, race until 10:15 pm and then have the teams try to get the cars ready for a 3:00 pm race the next day. Friday night is a poor television ratings night and racetracks do not hold Sunday night races unless it is a holiday because people have work the next day and aren't going to return home until midnight at best. However, we know Iowa has held mid-afternoon races and not drawn good crowds, but some of its better attended races were night races. 

Iowa is a tricky situation. The grocery store chain Hy-Vee, which made a massive investment in motorsports last year and will continue with full-time sponsorship of Jack Harvey's Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry, is backing the Iowa race weekend. Hy-Vee benefits greatly from double NBC exposure, but Iowa Speedway could suffer in terms of attracting a fraction of the largest possible crowd because these races will be in the middle of the afternoon in the summer. 

There is also the straight fact that some of IndyCar's worst ratings are Saturday night races. People go out on Saturday night. They spend time with the family and have other things to do. NASCAR has the same problem and has dropped nearly all its Saturday night races in 2022, with the spring Martinsville race, Daytona's summer race and the Bristol night race being the lone survivors. Even the All-Star Race is a Sunday night race.

We must accept that night racing is not a great business decision for any major racing series when television money is the largest revenue source, even if a few racetracks draw better at night than in the daytime. 

Some people will not get over it, but there is a methodology to the start times. IndyCar exists a part of a larger sports platform for NBC. It is one of many tentacles and NBC is placing these races among its other sporting events. You might not like to hear that, but it is a good thing that NBC puts IndyCar in this spot. It is a good thing to lead into golf or NASCAR. It is a good thing to follow a Premier League match or a French Open match. 

It does run the risk of being pre-empted for the first ten laps of a race or being quickly shuffled off-air when the next event is ready to go, but NBC wants to keep the viewers tuned in. Pre-race and post-race are chances for people to change the channel and move on. The network wants people to stay all afternoon, and IndyCar is getting its time on stage to be seen. 

The current arrangement comes from compromise. IndyCar and the tracks are going big with 14 network races in 2022. Will ratings go up? Will the series gain traction? We don't know, but this television lineup is favorable to IndyCar what nearly every IndyCar fan has wanted for over 25 years. It required a few changes and a few sacrifices. 

Gateway might not be a true night race, but it will immediately follow a NASCAR Xfinity Series race from Watkins Glen on USA. The Mid-Ohio race will lead into the NASCAR Road America race again. The IndyCar/NASCAR combination will be back on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with IndyCar leading off on Saturday afternoon. Portland is before the Southern 500, albeit on different networks, with IndyCar on NBC and NASCAR on USA, but the series will work off each other, as NBC has been doing the last few seasons. 

Let's see what happens with this season, but for night races to return to IndyCar, it will require compromise, the same way everyone has had to compromise for this schedule. A balance will be found. That could require IndyCar having five races on USA and only nine races on NBC. Nine network races would still be good. It would be in line with what the series has had since NBC took over as the exclusive broadcaster.

There are a few concerns, a few early races for the central time zone, notably Texas, which already has a date change, and Barber Motorsports Park. History points to Iowa not having great attendance for afternoon races, and it will have two afternoon races. Gateway had a good thing going with its night race. A 5:00 p.m. local start is not a night race. Nashville is moving from an evening race to the middle of the afternoon. It is a risk, but it could pay off. These changes might not be what we wanted to see, but let's be open to the possibilities. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Jason Anderson, but did you know...

Tanner Thorson won the 36th Chili Bowl.

The #7 MS7 by WRT Audi of Dries Vanthoor, Christopher Mies, Thomas Neubauer, Axcil Jefferies and Mohammed Said Fahad Al Saud won the 17th Dubai 24 Hour.

Dakar Rally class winners:

Cars: Nasser Al-Attiyah won his fourth Dakar Rally by 27 minutes and 46 seconds over Sébastien Loeb. This was Toyota's second Dakar victory. 

Bikes: Sam Sunderland won his second Dakar Rally by three minutes and 27 seconds over Pablo Quintanilla. This was Spanish manufacture GasGas' first Dakar victory.

Quads: Alexandre Giroud won his first Dakar Rally, over two hours and 21 minutes ahead of Francisco Moreno. Giroud is only the second European to win in the quads class, joining inaugural quads winner, Czech rider Josef Macháček.

Side-by-Side: American Austin Jones won after overcoming a minute and 41-second deficit to Gerard Farrés entering the final stage. Jones defaced Farrés by two minutes and 37 seconds in the final classifications. Jones is the third American to win a Dakar class.

Light Prototypes: Francisco López won, his third Dakar victory, by 51 minutes and 28 seconds ahead of Sebastien Eriksson and Cristina Gutiérrez was third, four hours and 34 minutes back. 

Seth Quintero won 11 of 12 Light Prototype stages, but a broken differential and ten-hour time penalty knocked Quintero out of overall contention. Quintero's 11 stage wins broke the Dakar Rally record for most stage wins in single Dakar.

Trucks: Dmitry Sotnikov won for the second consecutive year. It was Kamaz's sixth consecutive victory and 19th overall.

Coming Up This Weekend

It is Roar Before the 24 weekend, and the grid will be set for the 24 Hours of Daytona.

Supercross will be in San Diego.

The World Rally Championship begins with Rallye Monte-Carlo.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Team Penske

The second 2022 IndyCar Team Preview is another one of IndyCar's "Big Three" teams. Team Penske did not take home the championship and it did not win the Indianapolis 500, the second consecutive season the team took home neither piece of silverware. It was a rather tame season by Penske standards and only one driver finished in the top five in the championship, the fewest for the team since 2011.

Penske is retaining three drivers for 2022, but it is downsizing to three cars. Josef Newgarden is leading the way and he is coming off finishing runner-up in the championship for the second consecutive season. Will Power won a race for a 15th consecutive season, but he also had his worst championship finish as a full-time driver since 2008. Scott McLaughlin became the first Team Penske driver to win IndyCar Rookie of the Year. While there are still two past champions in the team, it feels like Penske is going through a transition.

2021 Team Penske Review

Wins: 3 (Mid-Ohio, August IMS road course race, Gateway)

Poles: 5 (Belle Isle II, Road America, Mid-Ohio, Gateway, Long Beach)

Championship Finishes: 2nd (Josef Newgarden), 8th (Simon Pagenaud), 9th (Will Power), 14th (Scott McLaughlin)

Josef Newgarden - #2 Hitachi Chevrolet

The 2021 season had an unexpected start for Newgarden, he spun on the opening lap at Barber. The spin took out Newgarden and a few other drivers, but Newgarden's first race was over before he had even completed a lap.

Newgarden fought back with a runner-up at St. Petersburg and then was sixth in the first Texas race despite notable contact with Sébastien Bourdais. He closed out the Texas weekend with another runner-up finish. His month of May began with a fourth-place finish in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but his Indianapolis 500 was difficult, as was a common theme for Team Penske in 2021. Newgarden was mostly in the middle of the field and finished 12th. 

Belle Isle started with a tenth, but he on pole position for the second Belle Isle race, and dominated. A mistake on tire selection put him on the less ideal compound for the final stint. Colton Herta was chasing Newgarden down, but a few late caution kept Newgarden in the lead. It did allow Patricio O'Ward back into the race and with three laps to go O'Ward took the lead and eventually the victory. Newgarden dropped back to finish second. 

In the next race, Newgarden was again on pole position at Road America, and he led of the most laps again. There was another late caution, but this time Newgarden had gearbox issues at the restart with two laps to go and lost the lead to Álex Palou. Palou took the victory, while Newgarden limped home in 21st. 

After a pair of late defeats, Newgarden mastered Mid-Ohio, leading the most laps from pole position. He was tenth in his home race in Nashville after a qualifying accident was a setback. He ran eighth in the second IMS road course race before winning at Gateway, his third victory on the oval. Newgarden closed the season with finishes of fifth, seventh and second at Portland, Laguna Seca and Long Beach respectively, lifting him to second in the final championship standings.

Numbers to Remember:

7: Consecutive seasons with at least 300 laps led.

6: Consecutive top five championship finishes.

22: Newgarden became the 22nd driver with at least 20 IndyCar victories last year.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Something like his first two championship seasons. At least four victories, at least one on a road course, street course and oval. Along with those victories, he will regularly be on the podium and in the top five. He will be in the top ten for nearly every race and he will complete almost every lap. 

In that oval race victory, he will likely lead 85% of the laps and again have north of 400 laps led in a season. Qualifying results will be good, but he will not necessarily win a lot of pole positions. In all likelihood, one of his victories will come from seventh starting position. Mechanical issues will be nonexistent. 

Newgarden will be the clear Team Penske leader and he will likely enter the finale with the championship lead, only needing to finish eighth or better to secure the title. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Every year is a possible championship season for Newgarden. He is still getting started with Team Penske, as he only turned 31 years old in December. He has been first or second in the championship in four of his five seasons with Penske. In the last two seasons, he has been there but had one or two results you can point at where the championship swung away from him. 

Seeing as how he already has two championships with Penske, and he has 17 victories in the last five seasons, six more than the next two drivers in that time frame, Newgarden wants to be the next Penske driver to win the Indianapolis 500. This year will be his 11th Indianapolis 500 start, and he only had three top five finishes in the race. Last year was one of Penske's worst at Indianapolis in a long time. Newgarden would like to be the guy to lead the team's revival in 2022. 

Newgarden is eventually going to have a down season. There is a good chance 2022 could be that season. Newgarden's engineer Gavin Ward left Penske for Arrow McLaren SP at the start of the year. Penske will figure it out but after numerous successful seasons together, 2022 will be a shock to the system. 

Engineer aside, nobody leads the number of laps Newgarden has been leading and winning at the rate he has been at forever. But that season will be an anomaly, and it will still be a good season in comparison to the average IndyCar driver. I don't expect a fall off from Newgarden. He will still be at the front. 

Scott McLaughlin - #3 PPG Chevrolet

The New Zealander's rookie season began with respectable results of 14th and 11th at Barber and St. Petersburg respectively. 

McLaughlin's fourth career start was his first oval outing at Texas. It was an impressive race and in the closing laps McLaughlin was up to second behind Scott Dixon. McLaughlin kept his countryman honest and picked up his first career podium finish. McLaughlin backed it up the next day finishing eighth before finishing eighth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

In the Indianapolis 500, McLaughlin was the top Penske qualifier, and he ran well only to have a pit lane speeding penalty cost him a possible top ten finish and leave him in 20th. It was the start of a rough patch for McLaughlin. He would finish outside the top ten in seven consecutive races. 

Gateway was where things turned around and with the help of a caution, he ended up fighting for a top five result, ending up fourth. A ninth would follow at Portland and his season would end with finishes of 12th and 11th in the California races. 

Numbers to Remember:

3: Top ten finishes in four oval starts.

8.5: Average finish on ovals.

14.583: Average finish on road/street courses.

14: McLaughlin was 14th in the 2021 championship, the worst finish for a Penske regular since Al Unser, Jr. was 21st in the 1999 CART championship.

What does a championship season look like for him?

A McLaughlin championship will be built off strong oval race success, likely needing at least two victories, a top five finish in the Indianapolis 500 and top five finishes in four of the five races with all of his ovals ending with top ten results. 

Away from the ovals, McLaughlin improves on road and street courses, finishing in the top ten majority of the time with at least three or four top five finishes and at least one or two visits to the podium. In the races he does not finish inside the top ten, McLaughlin is running and finishing at least within the top fifteen. He also does not have a stretch longer than two races without a top ten finish.

Benefitting McLaughlin is no other driver standing out and winning many races. There are an abundance of winners and no one else cracks more than three victories. His main championship rivals all finish outside the top five in the Indianapolis and most of them actually finish outside the top ten, allowing McLaughlin to have a larger positive points swing in that one race. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Improvements, but not necessarily jumping into the top ten of the championship. 

McLaughlin had three top ten finishes from the first five races with a finish of 11th and 14th in the other two races. But he finished outside the top ten in the seven races that followed and five of those results were outside the top fifteen. His final four races of 2021 were nearly identical to his first five races. 

He can have a more balanced season and pick up a few more top ten results and possibly a few more top five finishes. There could be a road/street course race where he is on from the first practice session, spends every session in the top ten, makes the final round of qualifying and finishes in a top five position. I don't sense that would be a regular occurrence for McLaughlin in 2022 and he will still have a few tough weekends. 

There is also a chance his oval results dip. There is little margin for error when you were in the top ten of 75% of oval races the year before, and 75% is not an option in 2022. If he three top ten finishes again, that is a drop to 60%. If he gets the same number as 2021, his percentage increases to 80%. There are fine margins.

McLaughlin should be in the fight for a top ten championship finish. I don't expect a drop off. Anywhere between eighth and 14th in the championship would feel right. 

Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet

Power opened the 2021 season with a runner-up finish at Barber and he followed it with an eighth-place finish in St. Petersburg. It was a good start, but a funk followed. 

In Texas, Power was 14th and 13th, and he ended up 11th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The Indianapolis 500 almost did not happen. Power struggled the most of the Penske drivers and at the end of the first qualifying day, Power was not in the top 30 and would have to participate in the Last Row Shootout on Sunday. On his Sunday qualifying run, Power brushed the wall exiting turn two on the final lap. Power completed the run, but his car was damaged and would not be able to make a second attempt. The good news is Power ended up 32nd and held on to make the field of 33. 

The race did not go much better. Power was a non-factor and he spun entering the pit lane late, taking him off the lead lap. He would end up finishing 30th, three laps down. 

Things looked to be going better in the next race at Belle Isle, and through all the chaos, Power was leading late, but Romain Grosjean's accident brought out a red flag with five laps to go. When the race was restarted, Power's car would not re-fire. After multiple attempts, the car was pulled from the line and the lead was lost. He ended up 20th and irate when the race was over. 

A sixth in the second Belle Isle race was barely a consolation, the same goes for third at Road America. A lap three spin at Mid-Ohio ended an encouraging day. He was 14th in Nashville. The good news was he found his form in the August IMS road course race and took his first victory of the season. He won his first pole position at Gateway and finished third. 

The season ended with lackluster results, a spin at Portland, a mechanical issue early at Laguna Seca and a tenth at Long Beach.

Numbers to Remember:

1: Pole position in 2021, the second time since joining Team Penske he has not had multiple pole positions in a season.

11: Power's 11-year top five championship finish streak was snapped in 2021 after finishing ninth.

12.438: Average finish in 2021, his worst as a Team Penske driver.

99: Laps led in 2021, the first time he has led less than 100 laps in a season since 2008.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Power is the baddest man on the planet. 

His qualifying form is exceptional. Power picks up at least six pole positions and he wins from at least three of those. Not to mention he wins at least two other times when not on pole position. He claims residency in the top five and there is a stretch where he is on the podium for at least five consecutive races. 

The mechanical gremlins cannot keep up with him. Every race occurs without a headache. A bad day is finishing eighth but that is also one of the few races he is not quite feeling it and not really fighting for a top five, but he isn't outside the top ten. There might be one really bad race, but that isn't because Power did something wrong. It could be a race where he was caught out on pit strategy or maybe gets the strategy wrong on tire compounds and finishes on the less desirable rubber. 

His oval results are just as good as his road and street course results, and at least one of his victories comes on an oval. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

At any point it feels like Power could turn it on and be the Will Power that we saw from 2010 through 2016. But it has been awhile since Power has been breathtaking over an entire season. It is not that he is losing it, but we know his mechanical woes and the number of race victories those have cost him. For a driver who lost plenty of races because of his own mistakes in the first half of his career, he has probably lost more from flukey mechanical problems in the last five years. 

We do have to acknowledge the drop in Power's form in 2021. He was ninth in the championship and had only one pole position and one victory. That lone victory didn't come until August. If it wasn't for the issues at Belle Isle, he would have had two victories and those extra 40 points would have had him seventh in the championship, still a drop but not as major as ninth. 

Power is going to win a few races and he is going to be quick in qualifying. He will get a few pole positions. However, he will struggle to beat Newgarden, and there is a clear number one at Penske. Power can get back into the top five of the championship, but for him to be a title contender he will need to be near flawless and not lose his cool, something we have seen more from him the last few years, a behavior unbefitting a Penske driver. A championship will require composure in 2022.

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Andretti Autosport

January might feel early for IndyCar previews, but in 45 days the season will begin at St. Petersburg. It is time to look ahead. Teams have started testing in preparation for the new season, a 17-race, 14-track trek that will last 196 days. The schedule has been mixed up a little, and there could be a few returning tracks. 

The first team preview will look at Andretti Autosport. It has been a few rough seasons for the past champions. It won a few races, but all those victories came with Colton Herta. A few more races were lost. Alexander Rossi had difficulty getting results again and was clearly second in the team. Ryan Hunter-Reay has left the team after 11 seasons. James Hinchcliffe is gone after a one-year return. For 2022, Andretti has drafted in two new drivers. One was a standout in 2021. 

After Álex Palou won the championship last year, it had me thinking about how to tweak these previews. Palou went under the radar and was not considered a championship contender. He won the season opener and never looked back. Not every driver will be fighting for the championship, but there is a path for every driver. This year's set of previews will ask what each driver's possible championship looks like and then also ask what is a realistic season for that driver. 

2021 Andretti Autosport Review

Wins: 3 (St. Petersburg, Laguna Seca, Long Beach)

Poles: 3 (St. Petersburg, Nashville, Laguna Seca)

Championship Finishes: 5th (Colton Herta), 10th (Alexander Rossi), 17th (Ryan Hunter-Reay), 20th (James Hinchcliffe), 35th (Marco Andretti)

2021 Drivers:

Colton Herta - #26 Gainbridge Honda

Herta's 2021 season began with him being caught in the opening lap accident at Barber Motorsports Park when Josef Newgarden spun exiting turn four. Herta had qualified fourth. Bouncing back at St. Petersburg, won pole position, and led 97 of 100 laps on his way to victory. A wheel bearing issue took him out at the first Texas race, but he was fifth in the Sunday race. 

Indianapolis was not his best pair of races for Herta. He was 13th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and poor strategy wasted a second place starting position in the Indianapolis 500, with Herta finishing 16th. Though he was 14th in the first Belle Isle race, Herta ran an aggressive strategy in the second race, and was catching Newgarden before two cautions late. Herta did not have the car on restarts and dropped to fourth. 

Herta was set for a podium finish at Road America and was elevated to second after Newgarden had his gearbox issues late. Re-fueling issues forced Herta to stop for a splash on the penultimate lap at Mid-Ohio, dropping him to 13th. He looked set to dominate another street race at Nashville, but the fractured nature of that race set Herta back. He proceeded to climb up the order and challenge Marcus Ericsson for the lead in the closing laps. With six laps to go, Herta got into the turn nine barrier and ended what should have been at least a runner-up finish. 

He bounced back with a third at the second IMS road course race, but a driveshaft broke while leading at Gateway and effectively ended Herta's championship hopes. He was eighth at Portland, but the season ended on a high note. Returning to Laguna Seca, Herta was back on pole position and led 91 of 95 laps. At Long Beach, Herta was fastest during practice, but a qualifying mistake staying on the primary tire meant he did not advance from round one. Starting 14th, Herta shot out the order and took the lead on lap 34. He led 43 of 85 laps and closed the season with his second consecutive victory.

Numbers to Remember:

5: Podium finishes in 2021, tied for third most.

5: Finishes outside the top fifteen in 2021.

14.6: Average finish in 19 oval starts.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Herta wins the three races he won in 2021, but he also wins at Nashville and his driveshaft doesn't break while leading at Gateway, giving him another victory, and on top of all that he doesn't having the other mechanical issues nor gets caught in an opening lap accident to start the season. 

The team nails every pit stop and doesn't put him on the fence in terms of fuel mileage, preventing him from running at 100% and possibly costing a handful of positions. There are no qualifying hiccups and Herta is always starting at the front of the field. On restarts, Herta is going forward and not backward. 

A respectable Indianapolis 500 result would also help. Anywhere in the top eight would go a long way and a few extra bonus points from qualifying would help. Oval results improving across the board would be a major development and make him a more dangerous terms in terms of running away with the championship. A career year on ovals would be make Herta very difficult to beat in the championship and a victory would be significant. 

Overall, at least four victories, top five finishes in at least half the races and top ten finishes at least 15 times would make him difficult to beat for the title.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Herta's championship season is realistic. The speed is there, and he is a proven race winner. Not only are these victories but shear beatdowns for Herta. He doesn't luck into his victories. He goes out and flexes his muscle from the drop of the green flag. 

There were a few races that went against Herta in 2020 that likely do not happen again. He was going to pass Newgarden in the closing laps in the second Belle Isle race before Jimmie Johnson spun. If Nashville decreased the insanity by just 15%, he likely wins that race and if the driveshaft holds up at Gateway, he would already have an oval victory to his name.

Even if those three races are flipped, Herta would still have had a few poor results, but six victories in a year where nobody else truly dominated would have at least put Herta in the conversation for the title in the finale. He might have still fallen short, but he would have been right there. 

If Herta and team cleans things up, the best possible outcome is within reach.

Alexander Rossi - #27 NAPA Auto Parts/AutoNation Honda

After finishing 2020 in generally good form, Rossi could not get into a rhythm in 2021. 

Poor tire strategy knocked him from a possible podium finish to ninth at Barber. Contact with Graham Rahal ended a possible top five finish at St. Petersburg. He was eighth in the first Texas race and was caught in the start accident in the second race. May started with a seventh in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but an emergency pit stop and stalling within the first 100 miles of the Indianapolis 500 put Rossi in a hole he couldn't get out. Trapped a lap down and with almost no attrition, Rossi was 29th but only two laps down! 

Through the first nine races, Rossi alternated top ten finish with non-top ten finish. His first top five was fifth Mid-Ohio, but a slow pit stop kept him from finishing on the podium. Patricio O'Ward spun Rossi at Nashville, ending a possible top five finish. He was fourth in the second IMS road course race, and then brushed the wall after getting in the marbles fighting for a podium finish at Gateway. 

Overcoming a blow start at Portland, Rossi was second. He qualified second at Laguna Seca, but a nudge after attempting a pass for the lead on Herta in five spun Rossi off course and he finished 25th. He ended the season with a sixth in Long Beach.

Numbers to Remember:

2: Laps led in 2021.

37: Starts since his most recent IndyCar victory.

12.3: Rossi's average finish in 2021, the worst of his IndyCar career and his second consecutive season resetting his worst average finish in a season.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Rossi combines the best aspects of his 2018 and 2019 seasons. 

He dominates Long Beach, he has a great Indianapolis 500 and this time holds on in the closing laps to get his second victory, and puts together dominant days at Road America and Mid-Ohio. On days when victory is not possible, Rossi is able to maximize points and finish ahead of his main championship rivals, regularly finishing on the podium. 

Balance is achieved on both tire compounds and there are no instances of Rossi losing five spots in one stint mid-race because of tire compound choice. His qualifying results are impeccable. The minor incidents that lead to catastrophic results do not occur. Cautions go his way. Rossi is the leader in the team. He is constantly coming out on top in every session, from the first practice session to the race. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

After two winless seasons, it feels like a win is due to Rossi, but he didn't come that close in 2021. In 2020, there were at least three races where it felt like Rossi was there and just the wrong thing happened each time. We didn't see any of those races in 2021. Perhaps Portland falls in that category, but that was such a weird comeback where Rossi fell back due to cutting the chicane at the start and then he had to follow Álex Palou to the front. 

If the likes of Rinus VeeKay can win in IndyCar and Marcus Ericsson can win twice, Rossi can get at least one victory. He can also be on the podium more than once. 

Rossi's largest hurdle is his own teammate, Herta, and there could possibly be a second stablemate giving him serious competition. For two seasons, Rossi has not even been the best of his own quartet. If he is third and looks up to see Herta is first, he could have the most infuriating career season in a career. 

Andretti Autosport could have multiple championship contenders, something the team really hasn't had since the days of Tony Kanaan, Dan Wheldon and Dario Franchitti. Multiple victories and six to eight podium finishes are possible for Rossi, but two or three poor results could plague his season and keep him outside the top five in the championship.

Romain Grosjean - #28 DHL Honda

The anticipated IndyCar debut of Grosjean saw him make it out of round one in his first IndyCar qualifying session, and he finished tenth on debut at Barber for Dale Coyne Racing. Another good day in 13th followed at St. Petersburg. 

On Grosjean's first visit to Indianapolis Motor Speedway, he won pole position for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and led majority of the race. Difficulty with traffic cost Grosjean the lead, but he was still second in his third career start. He would come back to Earth at Belle Isle, hitting the barrier in race one and having a brake fire in race two. But good days would continue with a fifth at Road America and seventh at Mid-Ohio. 

A penalty for contact took away a possible top ten finish at Nashville and he was second again on the IMS road course. With confidence, Grosjean took his first crack at oval, starting 15th at Gateway. Grosjean improved with each lap and was making passes. Cold tires were his downfall and he lost significant time after each pit stop. He could have finished in the top ten but was caught a lap down when Rossi got into the barrier and finished 14th. 

He was in the opening lap accident at Portland but continued with a damaged race car. All he could manage was 22nd. Arguably Grosjean's best race was Laguna Seca, moving from 13th to third with many impressive passes and showing great pace on each tire compound. Grosjean was in contention for another top ten finish at Long Beach but slapped the barrier and ended his race early.

Numbers to Remember:

20.923: Points per start in 2021.

334: Points based on Grosjean's point per start over 16 starts, good enough for tenth in the championship in 2021.

20: Average finish on street courses in 2021.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Grosjean takes his world-class talent and combined with a championship-caliber team sees him immediately imposed his will on IndyCar. Grosjean wins early in the season, is on the podium in three of the first five races and he completes all 500 miles at Indianapolis, finishing somewhere between ninth and 16th. 

From there, Grosjean builds on his championship lead and picks up at least one victory in the next three races. He keeps his nose clean at the Iowa doubleheader and finishes the season with top five finishes in each of the last five races with at least one, if not two victories. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

A championship is not a crazy expectation for Grosjean. We just saw Palou win the title in his sophomore season after moving to a new team, and Grosjean is quite talented. 

However, let's temper expectations and remember Andretti Autosport has been struggling the last few seasons. The team has brought Olivier Boisson over with Grosjean from Dale Coyne Racing. That engineering mind should lift the team. 

Road and street course results should not be a concern. He should win once or twice. Ovals will be new. He looked good at moments last year at Gateway, but also showed exactly where he needs to improve, notably on cold tires. Gateway is one animal. Texas and Indianapolis are entirely different beasts. He is with one of the best teams, but he will still have to overcome his own insecurities. For a driver who long expressed trepidation over competing on ovals, the risks will alway linger in his mind and could hamper his output. 

Grosjean should be a top ten championship driver and push for a top five spot. 

Devlin DeFrancesco - #29 Andretti Steinbrenner Autosport Honda

After finishing runner-up in the 2020 Indy Pro 2000 championship, DeFrancesco moved up to Indy Lights in the Andretti Autosport program. 

The season opened with a pair of third-place finishes. His season took a step back with an accident in the first St. Petersburg race, but he was fifth in race two. DeFrancesco would have only one top five finish in the next six races. He found his form over the summer with a pair of fifth-place finishes in Mid-Ohio, and a fourth and a fifth at the Gateway doubleheader. 

Mechanical issues knocked him to 11th in the first Portland race and he would finish outside the top five in the next four races. He ended the season with an impressive drive in the wet to finish fourth, but he ended up sixth in the championship and third among the four Andretti Autosport cars.

Numbers to Remember:

2: Victories in 37 Road to Indy starts, both in Indy Pro 2000 (Gateway and the first New Jersey Motorsports Park race in 2020)

7: Years since DeFrancesco was selected as a Chip Ganassi Racing development driver.

17.4: James Hinchcliffe's average finish in this car last season.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Any championship season for DeFrancesco is built off the back of a strong Indianapolis 500. If it is still double points, a top three finish with possibly some qualifying bonus can notably boost a championship finish a few positions. 

A DeFrancesco championship season also means he outperforms what history projects for him. He would have to be the best rookie in every race, stun his three senior teammates, and somehow win at least four or five times. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

James Hinchcliffe did not put up great numbers in this car last year and Hinchcliffe already had multiple IndyCar victories to his name. I am not sure how DeFrancesco exceeds those results significantly. He couldn't finish in the top five of an Indy Lights championship that had only nine drivers compete in every race. If you cannot win in Indy Lights, I cannot imagine you are going to be impressive in IndyCar. 

DeFrancesco has done well in a few championships, but also been nonchalant in others. Matheus Leist won multiple Indy Lights races and wasn't much of a challenger in IndyCar. Leist was driving for A.J. Foyt Racing, but DeFrancesco is stepping into a car that was 20th in the championship, a.k.a Foyt territory. 

DeFrancesco could get a top ten finish or two, but I don't think he will be close to his teammate this season. There is a high possibility we could see a race where Herta, Rossi and Grosjean are all in the top five and DeFrancesco is struggling to break into the top 20. 

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.