Thursday, May 26, 2022

Track Walk: 106th Indianapolis 500

The sixth round of the 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season is the 106th Indianapolis 500. Qualifying weekend saw some of the fastest speeds ever run around the 2.5-mile oval. We ended up with the fastest pole speed in event history as well as the fastest average speed over the entire field in event history. Seventeen Hondas and 16 Chevrolets make up this grid with drivers coming from 14 different countries, including one represented in the Indianapolis 500 for the first time. There will be seven rookies, the most in the field since 2014. There are also seven drivers enter that will have at least 15 Indianapolis 500 starts in the field. Eight past winners will be on the grid, three of which have multiple victories, one of whom could become the all-time leader in Indianapolis 500 victories. 

Coverage
Time: NBC's pre-race coverage begins at 11:00 a.m. ET on Sunday May 29.
TV Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Dillon Welch, Dave Burns and Marty Snider will work pit lane. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will provide additional pit lane coverage. Mike Tirico and Danica Patrick will participate in pre-race and post-race coverage.

Indianapolis 500 Weekend Schedule
Carb Day:
Practice - 11:00 a.m.–1:00 p.m. ET (2 hours). NBCSN will have live coverage.
Pit Stop Competition - 2:30 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Race - 12:30 p.m. ET (200 laps).

Dixon Leads Ganassi's Charge to End Decade Drought
For the second consecutive year, Scott Dixon will lead the field to the green flag for the Indianapolis 500, but there is a stronger Chip Ganassi Racing group behind Dixon than the year before. 

Four of the top six starters are Ganassi entries and Ganassi had all five entries make the Fast 12 in qualifying. It has been ten years since the team won this race, and after a runner-up result last year, it is primed to conquer the speedway once again. 

Dixon has gone over a calendar year since his most recent victory, and an early pit snafu last year at Indianapolis took him out of contention for victory barely 100 miles into the race. He fought back onto the lead lap and ran an alternate strategy hoping to catch a break but had to settle for 17th at the checkered flag. This will be Dixon's 20th Indianapolis 500 start, and his only victory was 14 years ago, from pole position coincidentally enough. There have been plenty of close calls and many laps led. Dixon enters third all-time in Indianapolis 500 laps led with a good shot at claiming the all-time record this year, needing only 75 laps led to surpass Al Unser's record. 

Dixon is 41 years old and only two months away from turning 42. Recent history suggest age could be in his favor. The last two winners have been over the age of 40 and drivers over 40 have won three of the last five years. However, only twice has drivers over the age of 40 won three consecutive Indianapolis 500s. The first time was 1947 to 1949, when Mauri Rose won his second and third "500s" at the ages of 41 and 42, and then Bill Holland won at the age of 41. The other time was 1980 to 1982 when Johnny Rutherford won at 42 years old, Bobby Unser won at 47 and Gordon Johncock won at 45. 

While Dixon has two decades of history at the speedway, Álex Palou is hoping the third time will be the charm for him, and after finishing second as a sophomore in 2021, Palou starts second for this year's race. The defending IndyCar champion had been on a great run of form prior to his spin in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis nearly two weeks ago. He has five podium finishes in the last eight races. Since joining Chip Ganassi Racing at the start of the 2021 season, Palou has 11 podium finishes from 21 starts. 

Palou has yet to win on an oval. He was second last year at Indianapolis. His only other top five finish on an oval was fourth in the first Texas race in 2021. 

If there is anything in Palou's favor for this race is the last defending IndyCar champion to win the subsequent Indianapolis 500 was a Ganassi driver and it was the driver of the #10 Ganassi entry. Dario Franchitti won the 2012 race after winning his third consecutive championship in 2011. However, Franchitti won that 2012 race with the #50 in a promotional tie with then sponsor Target, which was celebrating 50 years of business. Palou retains the #10 for this year's race. 

Though Marcus Ericsson has won more races than Dixon since last year's Indianapolis 500, and Ericsson has 13 top ten results in the last 16 races, the Swede does not get the same recognition as his Ganassi teammates. Coming off a sixth-place championship finish in 2021, Ericsson has improved each year has driven in IndyCar. Indianapolis qualifying is another area that shows it. He starts fifth this year and his starting position has improved every year he has come to the speedway. Last year, he picked up his best Indianapolis 500 finish in 11th, but he has yet to finish better than his starting position in this race. 

Ericsson is coming off a fourth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he was third at Texas, the top Honda runner in first oval race of the 2022 season. 

Tony Kanaan is back for his 21st Indianapolis 500, and for the second consecutive year Kanaan is starting on row two. This year, he is one position further to the outside. He was tenth in last year's race, his 11th top ten finish at Indianapolis, but he has not been in the top five since 2017. Kanaan enters this race 47 years old, the oldest driver on the grid.

Rounding out the Ganassi quintet is Indianapolis 500 rookie Jimmie Johnson. The Californian will start 12th, the best starting position of Johnson's IndyCar career. Johnson comes into this race with plenty of Indianapolis experience from his NASCAR days. He made 18 starts on the oval, winning four times and that is not including an IROC victory on the 2.5-mile speedway as well. 

In the Monday practice session, Ganassi had the three fastest cars with Palou leading Dixon and Johnson. Ericsson was fifth. Dixon has been in the top five at the end of every practice day while Ericsson and Johnson have each been in the top five at the end of three of four days. Ericsson has been in the top ten of every practice day. 

A Ganassi victory would make it the fourth team with at least five Indianapolis 500 victories. Chip Ganassi would tie Andretti Autosport and Lou Moore for second most victories among team owners.

An Uphill Fight For a Fifth
With Hélio Castroneves winning his fourth Indianapolis 500 in 2021, this year's race is the first time in 29 years a driver will have a chance at fifth Indianapolis 500 victory. The only problem is Castroneves has his work cut out for him. 

Castroneves will start 27th, the second time he has started outside the top twenty in the Indianapolis and the second time in three years after starting 28th in 2020. He has qualified outside the top ten in five of six races this year and four of those are starting positions outside the top fifteen. He has one top ten finish this season and one top ten finish in his ten starts since his Indianapolis 500 victory. 

This will be the 22nd attempt at fifth Indianapolis 500 victory for a driver. A.J. Foyt had 15 attempts at a fifth, Al Unser had five and Rick Mears had only one. Foyt was second in 1979 to Mears when Mears won his first. Foyt's only other top five finish after his fourth victory was fifth in 1989, albeit seven laps down. He finished outside the top ten in nine of those 15 attempts. 

Unser was third in the 1988 and 1992 races. In Unser's final three starts, he qualified 22nd or worse and each of those starts came with a different team. Mears made only one attempt at a fifth victory, 1992, which was also Foyt's final start. Mears retired from that race after an accident on lap 74.

Castroneves has won from outside the top twenty before. He won from 28th on the grid at Chicagoland in 2008 after his qualifying time was disallowed for dipping his tires below the white line on his qualifying run. It matched the worst starting position for a winner in IndyCar history. The other winners from 28th starting position? Ray Harroun in the 1911 Indianapolis 500 and Louis Meyer in the 1936 Indianapolis 500. 

The Youth Wave Ready to Break
There are eight past winners in the field, but there are 25 drivers looking for their first Indianapolis 500 victory and 14 of those drivers are under the age of 30. 

Besides Palou on the front row is fellow 20-something Rinus VeeKay, and VeeKay is one of four drivers who could become the youngest Indianapolis 500 winner. This is the second consecutive year VeeKay has started on the front row. VeeKay is looking to become the first driver to win a third career Indianapolis 500 start since Juan Pablo Montoya did it in 2015, albeit 15 years after Montoya won on his Indianapolis 500 debut. Before Montoya, Dan Wheldon won his first Indianapolis 500 in his third Indianapolis 500 start. 

Patricio O'Ward will be starting on the inside of row three and has finished sixth and fourth in his first two Indianapolis 500 starts. O'Ward won earlier this season at Barber, and he has three career victories. He has 17 top five finishes in 43 starts, a batting average of 0.395.

David Malukas is one of the other potential youngest winners, and Malukas will start 13th. This will be his sixth career start and he has yet to have a top ten finish. Two spots to Malukas' outside on row five will be Santino Ferrucci. Ferrucci has finished seventh, fourth and sixth in three Indianapolis 500 starts. Though he cannot be the youngest winner, Ferrucci could become the fifth youngest winner. 

Callum Ilott makes his Indianapolis 500 debut from 19th on the grid. Ilott is coming off his first career top ten finish in eighth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Ilott could become the fourth youngest winner in the race's history. At 27 years old, Sage Karam will be making his ninth Indianapolis 500 start. Karam was seventh last year, his first top ten finish at Indianapolis since he was ninth as a rookie in 2014.

On the outside of row eight will be Devlin DeFrancesco, the worst starting position for DeFrancesco in his brief IndyCar career. The other rookies in the field, Kyle Kirkwood and Christian Lundgaard, will start 28th and 31st respectively. Lundgaard is another of the four potential youngest winners in this field. 

On the Back Foot
Many drivers are in a happy place ahead of race day, but some have to fight from behind once the green flag waves. 

Andretti Autosport has not had the pace it was once feared for. Romain Grosjean did qualify ninth, the top rookie qualifier, but three of the five Andretti cars qualified outside the top twenty with Alexander Rossi starting 20th. Colton Herta is the worst of the Andretti bunch in 25th on the grid.

The practice results do not give any excitement for race day. Rossi was 19th or worse in three of the four days. The exception being Friday practice where he was second on a day that was mostly no tow runs. Herta has been outside the top fifteen after each practice day. 

Andretti isn't the only team with all its cars toward the rear. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is in a hole as well. Graham Rahal was the top RLLR qualifier in 21st, and the other two cars are on the last row with Lundgaard a spot ahead of Jack Harvey in 32nd. Rahal was outside the top twenty on all four practice days while Harvey has been outside the top twenty on three of four days. 

Scott McLaughlin will start 26th after making an extra qualifying attempt in hopes of advancing to the Fast 12. Instead of gaining time, McLaughlin lost time and instead of being in the middle, he is in the bottom third of the grid with more traffic ahead of him. 

Those in Waiting
Castroneves' fourth victory means a lot of drivers are returning hoping to break their duck this year at Indianapolis, and there are plenty of drivers who could make history. 

This will be Ed Carpenter's 19th Indianapolis 500 start, the most on the grid without and Indianapolis 500 victory, and he is one of three drivers who could break Sam Hanks' record for most starts before a first Indianapolis 500 victory. Carpenter starts fourth for a second consecutive year, and he has finished in the top ten of three of the last four years, including two top five finishes, one of which was runner-up to Will Power in 2018. Carpenter had only three top ten finishes in his first 14 Indianapolis 500 starts. 

Marco Andretti will be making his 17th Indianapolis 500 start and could break Hanks' record. This is the second consecutive year Andretti is back as a one-off entry and he will start 23rd, his second consecutive year starting outside the top twenty. He had only started outside the top twenty once in his first 15 Indianapolis 500 appearances. Since Andretti's last IndyCar start, he competed in the Superstar Racing Experience and finished fourth in that championship with a victory at Slinger Speedway in Wisconsin. 

Graham Rahal is the only full-time driver who could break Hanks' record. This will be Rahal's 15th Indianapolis 500. Last year was one of Rahal's most promising runs before a loose tire from a pit stop caused him to spin on the access road on the inside of turn two. He has only there top five finishes and four top ten finishes in this race. He has finished outside the top 30 four times in the Indianapolis 500. 

Not quite in range to top Hanks' record, J.R. Hildebrand and Josef Newgarden are the other two drivers in the race with at least ten starts but no victories. This will be Hildebrand's 12th start, one shy of Hanks' record. Hildebrand has finished outside the top ten in the Indianapolis 500 the last five years, but his 17th-place starting position is his best Indianapolis qualifying effort since 2017. 

Newgarden is making his 11th Indianapolis 500 start, and he has finished in the top five in two of the last three years and in three of the last six. Newgarden is the only repeat winner this IndyCar season, but he enters in strange form. While having two victories, Newgarden has finished 14th or worse in the other three races this season. 

Who Are We Forgetting?
Takuma Sato. 

Sato qualified tenth, but he topped all three practice days ahead of qualifying. In the Monday practice, he was fourth overall. 

This will be the fourth time Sato has started in the top ten for the Indianapolis 500. The last two times he started in the top ten, Sato won the race. He also started tenth in 2011 and was the first car out of the race after an accident in turn one on lap 21.  

And how could we forget the IndyCar championship leader, Will Power?

Power has five consecutive top five finishes, his best run to open a season and his best streak since the 2016 season when he was first or second in six consecutive races that summer. Power bounced back in Indianapolis 500 qualifying this year after starting outside the top twenty the previous two years. Last year was his worst Indianapolis 500, starting 32nd and finishing 30th. 

After four consecutive seasons with at least one 500-mile race victory, Power has not won on an oval since Pocono 2019. He was outside the top ten in three of four oval races last season, but he has top five results in his last two oval appearances. 

The Championship
The Indianapolis 500 gathers much attention but putting the historical importance of the race on its own aside, this is a pivotal point in the 2022 IndyCar championship. This is the only double points race of the season, and with the championship tightly contested through five races, Indianapolis will separate the wheat from the chaff. 

Points have already been awarded from qualifying. The top 12 cars each picked up bonus points with pole-sitter Scott Dixon picking up 12 points and the 11 other drivers receiving one fewer points than the one in front of him, all the way down to Jimmie Johnson getting a single point for 12th. 

After qualifying, Will Power still leads the championship with 172 points, but Álex Palou's 11 points for second on the grid decreased the deficit to five points entering race day. Scott McLaughlin is now 20 points off the championship lead in third while Dixon is up to fourth on 145 points, five ahead of Josef Newgarden. 

Colton Herta and Patricio O'Ward are now tied on 132 points, but Herta holds the tiebreaker with his victory and fourth topping O'Ward's victory and fifth. Marcus Ericsson now sits on 125 points while Rinus VeeKay moves up to ninth on 123 points. Romain Grosjean drops to tenth with 118 points. 

Simon Pagenaud is still 11th on 109 points and Graham Rahal remains 12th on 98 points. Takuma Sato and Felix Rosenqvist are now tied on 90 points after Sato was tenth in qualifying and Rosenqvist was eighth. Rosenqvist owns the tiebreaker with his best finish being sixth to Sato's seventh. Alexander Rossi still rounds out the top fifteen with 81 points, a point ahead of Conor Daly, two ahead of Christian Lundgaard and ten clear of Hélio Castroneves. 

There are still 100 points on the table for winning the race, plus a point for at least one lap led and two bonus points for most laps led. 

Anyone from Power to Lundgaard in 17th could leave Indianapolis Motor Speedway as the championship leader after this race.

The Weather Report
Carb Day could see some rain showers at any point in the afternoon. There is a 69% chance of precipitation with a Western wind at 11 mph. Temperatures will remain comfortable should the weather clear. The high is forecasted for 67º F. 

After Friday, things look better heading to race day. Saturday's chance of precipitation drops to 7% while temperatures should rise into the mid-70s. Winds should drop to about 6 mph from the Northwest. Sunday will be warmer with a high around 84º F. Winds should also pick up, increasing to about 13 mph from the South.

Carb Night Classic
Friday night will feature the lower two rungs of the Road to Indy in competition at Indianapolis Raceway Park for the Carb Night Classic. 

This is the first of two oval races in Indy Pro 2000 this season, and Nolan Siegal enters IRP as the championship leader with 141 points, three ahead of Louis Foster. Foster picked up his first victory on the IMS road course nearly two weeks ago. Siegel has made three starts at IRP in U.S. F2000, but he has finished tenth, 11th and ninth in those races.

Reece Gold also won on the IMS road course, and he is third in the championship, 11 points behind Siegel. Gold was second in the IRP U.S. F2000 race last year. Braden Eves was first on the road in the first IMS road course race earlier this month, but Eves was disqualified for a technical infringement. Eves was second to Foster in the final race and he has three podium finishes and five top five finishes in seven races this season, but Eves continues to look for victory. Eves has 120 points while Enaam Ahmed rounds out the top five on 114 points with five top five finishes this season. 

Colin Kaminsky and Kiko Porto are tied on 108 points, but Kaminsky has three podium finishes while Porto's best finish is fourth. Josh Green won the first race of the season, but he has not finished in the top five since. Green has 106 points. Jack William Miller has finished in the top five of the last two races and sits 94 points. Yuven Sundaramoorthy picked up a runner-up finish in the first IMS road course race and he rounds out the championship top ten with 90 points. 

Wyatt Brichacek has 89 points, one point more than Salvador de Alba, who won the first IMS road course race after Eves' disqualification. Jonathan Browne and Jordan Missig round out the full-time drivers in the championship with 72 points and 70 points respectively.

The Indy Pro 2000's Freedom 90 will be at 8:05 p.m. ET on Friday May 27. 

U.S. F2000 is coming off quite a shock from the IMS road course weekend where Alex Quinn made his debut and swept all three races. Quinn had previously competed in the Formula Renault Eurocup and Formula Regional European Championship. Quinn's weekend earned him 93 points and has him seventh in the championship despite having run fewer than half the races. However, Quinn is not entered for the IRP race.

Jagger Jones leads the championship with 132 points, one more than Billy Frazer. Jones has four podium finishes this season and Jones won all three pole positions on the IMS road course. Frazer also has four podium finishes, but he has yet to win a race this season. Michael d'Orlando won the U.S. F2000 race at IRP last year, and d'Orlando is back, currently third in the championship on 130 points. D'Orlando has three podium finishes and six top five finishes in seven races but is winless so far in 2022. 

Myles Rowe has the funding for a full U.S. F2000 season, but he dropped to fourth in the championship on 127 points after finishes of 17th, third and sixth on the IMS road course. Jace Denmark rounds out the top five on 116 points. Simon Sikes was ninth in all three IMS road course races after having three finishes of fifth in the first four races of the season. Sikes has 98 points. 

Quinn is a point ahead of Thomas Nepveu, who has three top five finishes, but has yet to get on the podium. Bijoy Garg and Spike Kohlbecker round out the top ten with each driver on 86 points. Garg's best finishes are third and fourth this season, while Kohlbecker's best result is sixth in three races.

U.S. F2000's Freedom 75 takes place at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday night.

Fast Facts
This will be the tenth IndyCar race to take place on May 29 and the first since Alexander Rossi won the 100th Indianapolis 500 in 2016. 

Andretti Autosport/Bryan Herta Autosport has won the last three Indianapolis 500s held on May 29. Beside Rossi, Dan Wheldon won on that date in 2005 with Andretti Green Racing and in 2011 with Bryan Herta Autosport. 

This year's race will be the 51st anniversary of Al Unser's first Indianapolis 500 victory and May 29 would also have been Unser's 83rd birthday. 

This will be the 175th 500-mile race in IndyCar history.

The United States has produced the most 500-mile race winners with 66. Brazil and the United Kingdom has each produced seven 500-mile race winners. Canada has had four, Italy and France have each had three winners. The Netherlands, Sweden, Mexico, Colombia, New Zealand, Australia and Japan have each produced one winner. 

Chevrolet has won 12 of 20 500-mile races since 2012. 

Last year's Indianapolis 500 was the fastest in race history, completed in two hours, 37 minutes and 19.3846 seconds at an average speed of 190.690 mph. It was the fifth fastest 500-mile race in IndyCar history.

Seven of the last 11 Indianapolis 500s have been completed in under three hours. Only five of the first 87 Indianapolis 500s that went the distance were completed in under three hours.

This year's grid features...

13 Americans.

Three Brtions.

Two New Zealanders.

Two Swedes. 

Two Brazilians. 

Two Frenchmen.

Two Canadians. 

One Spaniard. 

One Dutchman. 

One Mexican.  

One Japanese.

One Australian. 

One Colombian and...

One Dane.

Denmark becomes the 30th different country represented in the Indianapolis 500.

Ed Carpenter, Josef Newgarden, Jack Harvey or Colton Herta could become the first driver to win the Freedom 100 and the Indianapolis 500.

Eight drivers have won on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They are Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Colton Herta, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden.

The drivers who could become the ninth driver to win on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend are Marco Andretti, Patricio O'Ward, Rinus VeeKay, David Malukas and Kyle Kirkwood.

Josef Newgarden, Rinus VeeKay or Colton Herta could join Will Power, Simon Pagenaud and Scott Dixon as the only drivers to win an IndyCar race on the IMS oval and road course. 

The average starting position for an Indianapolis 500 winner is 7.4328 with a median of fourth. 

Last year, Hélio Castroneves became the first winner to start eighth since Kenny Bräck in 1999.

Five consecutive Indianapolis 500s have been won from one of the first three rows, the longest streak since six consecutive winners from 2006 through 2011.

The average number of lead changes in the Indianapolis 500 is 13.819 with a median of ten.

In the DW12-era, the average number of lead changes in the Indianapolis 500 is 37.7 with a median of 34.5.

The driver who led the most laps has won only two of the last 11 Indianapolis 500s, Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014 and Simon Pagenaud in 2019. 

The average number of cautions in the Indianapolis 500 is 7.6595 with a median of 7.5. The average number of caution laps is 43.914 with a median of 43. 

Last year's race had two cautions, the fewest since 1969.

This will be the 73rd Indianapolis 500 victory for Firestone. 

This will be the 22nd Indianapolis 500 victory for Dallara, extending Dallara's record for most Indianapolis 500 victories for a chassis manufacture.

If Honda wins the race, it will be the manufacture's 15th Indianapolis 500 victory. Honda is currently second all-time in victories for engine manufactures, 13 victories behind Offenhauser's 27. 

If Chevrolet wins the race, it will tie Miller for third all-time on 12 Indianapolis 500 victories. 

Predictions
Let's go with Scott Dixon again. And he will get the record for most laps led in Indianapolis 500 history. Jimmie Johnson will not finish better than Kurt Busch's finish and Johnson will not be Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year. Andretti Autosport will have at least two cars finish in the top ten. There will not be a caution for a car spinning into the pit lane. Stefan Wilson will not be the first retirement. Marco Andretti will surpass his grandfather's career Indianapolis 500 laps completed total. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has at least one driver finish at least ten spots better than his starting position. Hélio Castroneves spends fewer than 10 laps in the top ten. There will be a new championship leader after this race. Sleeper: Marcus Ericsson.


Monday, May 23, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Improving the Indianapolis 500 Supply Chain

Scott Dixon ran the second fastest Indianapolis 500 qualifying attempt ever and the fastest Indianapolis 500 pole position qualifying average ever. Jimmie Johnson was respectable. Andretti Autosport is all over the place. Stefan Wilson never completed a qualifying run. Penske is bailing on the World Endurance Championship after Le Mans. Elsewhere, people still do not like Texas Motor Speedway, and NASCAR made another moronic officiating decision. Portugal was popping with great finishes. It was hot in Barcelona and mechanical failures have snuck into the Italian camp. NOLA Motorsports Park had another flooded weekend. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Improving Indianapolis 500 Supply Chain
Only 33 cars entered this year's Indianapolis 500, and it was a circus getting the 33rd materialized. 

There were a litany of reasons why the 33rd entry took as long as it did to organize. For starters, funding; some had it but didn't have a car or engine program. Some didn't have it but had a chassis. Some teams had a chassis but weren't going to loan them out. Some weren't able to get an engine as Honda was near capacity quickly. The other issue was teams and available crew members. Every organization is stretched and there aren't as many available crew members as in the past. 

We finally got the 33rd car, a Cusick Motorsports funded program with driver Stefan Wilson, thanks to DragonSpeed stepping up to man a car, which A.J. Foyt Racing provided, while an arrangement of equipment is coming from Andretti Autosport, Juncos Hollinger Racing and Team Penske. The entry should be called the "Spirit of IndyCar." If it wins, half the grid will get to claim a piece of it.

This is the 11th year with the DW12 chassis, and we are still having 2013 problems. Chassis are still hard to come by. This isn't like the previous chassis where you could turn around and find a half-dozen hiding behind a stack of newspapers. We got nearly ten years in on the Dallara IR05/IR07 chassis and teams were coming out of the woodwork. There were 40 entries for the 2011 Indianapolis 500. During that 2011 season there were one-off entries on a regular basis, partially because of the number of chassis available and that it was a lame-duck car. Teams ran it while they could. 

The DW12 chassis is not dead, at least not yet, but we are coming to the final days of this chassis. When is it replaced? It is going to be sooner rather than later. Originally, IndyCar hoped to have the new chassis and engine formula for 2021. It is 2022 and neither are here. We are thinking 2024 is when the new hybrid engine package will debut. Teams have been testing the new package. It is still undecided whether or not the new engine and new chassis will debut simultaneously or at least a year apart. 

It was initially thought IndyCar would extend the life of the DW12 chassis for the first season or two of the new engine formula and retrofit it to the current chassis. The belief was it would spread the cost around and instead of teams having to adapt to new engines and new chassis at once, they could spend on the engines and get a break before having purchase the new chassis. 

Some believe the engine and chassis should be introduced in tandem. Whether the teams are spending money to adapt the new engines to the DW12 or purchasing the next generation of chassis, they are still spending money. 

When the DW12 chassis was first introduced there were a few lean years. It wasn't possible to have 35 or 36 Indianapolis 500 entries. They were scraping to get 33 entries like we are today except there was a limit on chassis and spare parts then. Today, the limit is more about control. Either way, it isn't as simple as previous years to run a one-off program. See everything it took to get the DragonSpeed/Cusick program off the ground. 

The same issues IndyCar had at the beginning of the DW12-era will repeat with this new car and in turn we will struggle to find 33 entries come the month of May. 

However, if IndyCar is going to retrofit the DW12 chassis for the hybrid engine, to alleviate the supply chain issues when the new chassis is available, it would make sense for the DW12 chassis to be grandfathered for a few years for the Indianapolis 500. If the cars are going to be converted to take the new engines then they mind as well be available for one-off programs for multiple years down the line. 

These chassis are getting older, but the DW12 has been a safe car. The one complaint with the DW12 hasn't been the car is getting less safe. It is safer than ever, especially with the aeroscreen, and as we saw in qualifying this past weekend, it is faster than ever. It is unlikely the DW12 will be unable to keep up with the new car. It might not win pole position, but it could make the field and possibly be a contender in the right pair of hands. 

IndyCar has been smart the last few years under Jay Frye's leadership, and while it is still struggling to make the move to its next generation of car, I have confidence it will make the right decisions, but when it comes to Indianapolis it should be a little more open and make it easier for one-off programs. With the new car, there will still be 24 of them or more. The Leader Circle entrants would likely be required to run those. There will be one-offs that will want the new car, but there will likely also be some programs that would take the DW12, believe they can make the field and have a competitive race. 

Indianapolis was known for the underdog taking an older machine and making the race against the odds. Grandfathering the DW12 chassis might not mean 50 or 60 entries, but it should make it easier to get to 33 and make it more likely we would see 36 or 37 or maybe even 40 entries. It could open the door to teams that otherwise wouldn't consider it.

The Indianapolis 500 hasn't had an issue with interest. For the last decade it has felt like on a regular basis we have had 36 to 40 drivers a year saying they were working on something for Indianapolis but not everyone could get a ride. This year alone we had Paretta Autosport sidelined due to a combination of issues. Allowing the DW12 to run with the new chassis wouldn't solve every problem for one-off entries, but it would at least take care of one key area. 

Thinking about where IndyCar and the Indianapolis 500 stands in 2022, it must accentuate what makes its standout. Bumping is a dramatic difference IndyCar has from basically every series in existence today. Formula One doesn't have cars miss the race. Everyone races at Le Mans. No one misses a NASCAR Cup race anymore. NASCAR hasn't been sending five cars or more home at each race for a while. The Daytona 500 might have three or four cars miss, but 36 cars are locked in. You had six guys competing for four spots this year.

No one is locked in for Indianapolis. 

Each year there is bumping, someone unexpected in the mix. James Hinchcliffe and Fernando Alonso each missed the race. Will Power made it by the skin of his teeth. IndyCar needs bumping to build up the Indianapolis 500. 

It is the wrinkle to IndyCar's major event, but IndyCar isn't big enough to consistently ensure bumping. Since the introduction of the DW12 chassis, we have brief periods of bumping and then periods of no bumping. IndyCar must embrace this aspect of the Indianapolis 500. If allowing the DW12 chassis to run for a few extra years means more one-offs and more underdog stories, IndyCar shouldn't hesitate in attempting to increase competition. 

After the difficulties teams have been going through this year and considering what it was like in the early days of the DW12 chassis, it would be smart of IndyCar to make sure there are plenty of cars available for the month of May for the better of the series and for the better of its most important race. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Scott Dixon, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Spanish Grand Prix, his third consecutive victory and fourth victory of the season. 

Felipe Drugovich swept the Formula Two races from Barcelona. David Vidales and Victor Martins split the Formula Three races.

Ryan Blaney wn the NASCAR All-Star Race from Texas. Tyler Reddick won the Grand National Series race, his first victory in the series since 2019. Stewart Friesen won the Truck race, his first victory since 2019.

Sheldon van der Linde swept the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from Lausitzring. 

Cameron Waters won the bookend Supercars races from Winton Motor Raceway while Shane van Gisbergen won the middle race. 

Álvaro Bautista won the first World Superbike race from Estoril while Jonathan Rea won the second two races. Dominique Aergerter swept the World Supersport races and now has five consecutive victories.

Kalle Rovanperä won Rally de Portugal, his third consecutive victory. 

Ryō Hirakawa won the Super Formula race from Autopolis, his second victory of the season.

The #1 K-PAX Racing Lamborghini of Andrea Caldarelli and Michele Beretta swept the GT World Challenge America races from NOLA Motorsports Park. The #18 RS1 Porsche of Eric Filgueiras and Stevan McAleer swept the GT4 America races.

Coming Up This Weekend
106th Indianapolis 500
79th Monaco Grand Prix
63rd Coca-Cola 600
50th Nürburgring 24 Hours
73rd Italian motorcycle Grand Prix
Super GT has a 300-kilometer race at Suzuka.
World Touring Car Cup will also be on the Nürburgring Nordschleife.


Sunday, May 22, 2022

First Impressions: 106th Indianapolis 500 Sunday Qualifying

1. Simply brilliant from Scott Dixon. 234.046 mph! The second fastest Indianapolis 500 qualifying run ever! What a weekend! This is Dixon's fifth Indianapolis 500 pole position, only Rick Mears is ahead of him, and Mears might want to make some room. Dixon finds a way to impress us again. He was quick in practice, and just made the Fast 12 yesterday, finishing in tenth and he found just shy of two miles per hour between his first run of the weekend and his last run to win pole position. 

After the last two years, 2020, a race that was arguably his best, perhaps even better than his 2008 victory, and last year where Dixon was on pole position but stalling after running out of fuel took him out of contention after the first, we have to ask if the third time is the charm? 

I am not sure anyone deserves a second Indianapolis 500 victory more than Scott Dixon. This is his fifth pole position. He has led 570 laps in his Indianapolis 500 career, third most all-time. He has led the most laps in five Indianapolis 500s, the most times with the most laps led. It felt like it lined up for Dixon last year. I don't think this will be another wasted year. 

2. Álex Palou had an impressive qualifying run, and then Dixon went out and topped him. Who would have thought a 233.499 mph four-lap average could be disappointing?

Palou is sensational. He is going to win this race, and very well could do it this year. He already has a championship under his belt. The guy lives on the podium. Chip Ganassi is going to be a happy man for at least the next 15 years.

After last year's race, Palou is a prime contender. He has already given Dixon fits for the last two years. Dixon has shown his muscle and this race has had many veteran winners the last few years. Palou has been good, but he is young. However, Palou is a fast learner. He can make the adjustments and win this race.

3. The darling of Saturday Rinus VeeKay couldn't quite replicate the speed in the Fast Six, dropping to 233.385 mph. Dixon did jump to a higher level, but third is good for VeeKay. It is another front row start, his second in three years and he has never started worse than fourth. 

VeeKay is the perfect fit for Ed Carpenter Racing. He gets everything out of the car at Indianapolis. His races the last two years show he is young. I think he can develop and put together a complete 500-mile race. This could be the year. But the competition will be stout. 

4. Ed Carpenter was fourth at 233.080 mph. That sounds about right. 

Carpenter has been around long enough that we know he will be in the top nine, but the results don't always match. This will be the seventh time he has started on one of the first two rows in the last ten years. In those previous six races, he has finishes of tenth, 27th, 11th, second, sixth and fifth. The results are getting better but are still not great. 

He is smart and knows to bring the car home. Will that be enough for victory? If not now then when?

5. Marcus Ericsson takes fifth on the grid after running 232.764 mph. Ericsson has been in this range since basically the April test. He is solidly in the top ten, never the fastest Ganassi car but never the slowest Ganassi car. Ericsson does have a quiet consistency to him. He has yet to put together a strong Indianapolis 500. Last year was good. He doesn't have many instances of dominating a race. His two victories have fallen in his lap. He has put himself in position for those victories, but he will not get so lucky at Indianapolis. 

6. Tony Kanaan was sixth! Bravo to him running 232.372 mph. I want Tony Kanaan to run into his 50s. He is only 47 years old. He would need to make three more Indianapolis 500 starts to be in the race when he is 50. This will be his 21st Indianapolis 500 start. If he holds on for the next three years, he will hit 24, tying him with Johnny Rutherford and Gordon Johncock. He is still the most beloved driver on the grid. Eventually, Kanaan will call it quits, but I hope he hangs in there until he has nothing left. It has been a privilege getting to see him continue for this long. 

7. Tough break for Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist each not making it after being second and third respectively on Saturday. Both cars went in the wrong direction with their changes. I am surprised both missed considering the weather was better than yesterday. The team got it wrong today. I think both cars will be fine for the race. O'Ward will use this as motivation, and I think he will still be a challenger on race day.

8. Romain Grosjean will round out row three to the outside of the Arrow McLaren SP drivers. This feels right for Grosjean. He hasn't been close to the top throughout practice but making the Fast 12 was within consideration. He is Andretti Autosport's one bright spot and even this is nothing to brag about. 

9. The inside of row four will be Takuma Sato, who after the pace we saw all week should be a little disappointed not to be a little better. His time was never going to threaten for the Fast Six and that was clear once Sato was done as the first qualifier in the Fast 12; 

10. Will Power is in the middle of row four. Power has 64 career pole positions and zero at the Indianapolis 500. I am sure there are other drivers with zero pole positions at a certain track, but it would be something if Power were to win four more pole positions, get the all-time record all on his own, and never win one for the Indianapolis 500. Meanwhile, the likes of Billy Boat, Greg Ray, Scott Sharp, Alex Tagliani and James Hinchcliffe all have an Indianapolis 500 pole position. Go figure!

11. Jimmie Johnson had a few moments on his qualifying run, most notably on his first lap entering turn one. Johnson did a fantastic job keeping the car out of the barrier. It killed any shot of him advancing to the Fast Six. If that first lap went well, Johnson would have had a shot. I think he would have fallen just short considering all six cars that advanced ran over 233 mph. He isn't quite starting inside a hornet's nest from 12th, but he has to be careful early in this race.

12. One thing I forgot to mention yesterday is I am glad we got through the entire qualifying line yesterday and didn't have rain interrupt the session. If rain had prevented each entry from making an attempt then all the times would have been wiped off the board. If only 30 cars had gotten through the line and the rains came, those 30 times would have been cancelled out and everyone would have to go again. 

This is the second consecutive year I am imploring IndyCar not to cancel out runs that happen because after seeing what everyone did yesterday it would be insulting to say a 233-mph four-lap average doesn't count just because of weather. If a driver completes a run, the time should remain on the board unless the team has withdrawn it or it has been removed for an infringement. 

And I know it would be unfair to have say ten or 15 or 20 drivers qualify under different conditions on Sunday, but it would also be unfair to make someone run a 233 mph average and say it doesn't count. For years, IndyCar would have qualifying interrupted at Indianapolis and then complete the qualifying line the following day. That shouldn't be any different now. That should be the practice. It is one of those things from the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s that still works today. I hope IndyCar realizes that and smarter heads prevail. 

13. As for the new format, I still think the Fast 12 and the Fast Six is overkill. Because the teams were not allowed to make any adjustments to the cars after the Fast 12 run and because all those teams were on the same set of tires for the Fast Six, we saw slower qualifying speeds in the final round. After spending all day Saturday and the first part of Sunday fawning over the speeds, it is a wet blanket to limit the cars to slower speeds. 

Credit to Dixon and a few of the Fast Six teams, there were some impressive laps despite the cars not being in ideal conditions, but we mostly saw one big lap and then significant drop off. Few could remain in the ballpark over four laps. I would rather have the Fast Nine and everyone get one final attempt to go for it. If we need to split the difference and have the Fast 12 but the Fast 12 determine pole position then fine, but after seeing the session in action I still think three rounds is one too many.

It wasn't terrible, but not as great as it was before. 

14. Looking ahead, there will be a practice session tomorrow and Carb Day on Friday. Last year's race had long green flag runs dictate everything. I am not sure we will have another race like there where there was no margin for error. Scott Dixon and Alexander Rossi innocently ran out of fuel at the end of the first stint and that took both drivers out of it. We haven't seen many incidents in the last week. That doesn't necessarily mean we are in for a clean race, but we haven't heard anyone speak out saying they are uncomfortable on track. 

We are not expecting the races we saw in 2012 through 2017. It is not going to be passing happy, and passing will be tough, but with how competitive this field is on paper, no one expects a dud. 


Saturday, May 21, 2022

First Impressions: 106th Indianapolis 500 Saturday Qualifying

1. For a day that was basically cut in half because of the weather, I am not sure anyone can feel hard done by the outcome of the day. I am sure there are a handful of teams that wished the session went distance. There are likely a few teams that benefitted from the qualifying draw and a few teams on the outside that would have made it if they had gone earlier, but with the bar lowered to the Fast 12, I am not going to feel sorry for as many teams as before. 

Over a third of the field makes the next round of qualifying. If you cannot be in the top third then you deserve a shot at pole position. 

With that said, Rinus VeeKay showed Ed Carpenter Racing has pace again and in what will be his third Indianapolis 500 start, VeeKay is ready to lead this team. He is already a race winner and has a good record of top ten finishes. The second half of 2021 was concerning, and we still need to see a full season from him, but outside of a testing accident before the start of the 2021 season we haven't seen VeeKay put a wheel wrong at Indianapolis. 

He has had a few pit lane errors, but the raw pace is there and heading into Sunday VeeKay is the favorite for pole position.

2. We must take a moment to talk about the speed. 233.655 mph for VeeKay, the third fastest Indianapolis 500 qualifying attempt ever! He is behind only Arie Luyendyk and Scott Brayton. How about that for company? Is that good enough for you? 

I have been dreaming of this day. As much as I would love to hear "it's a new track record" again, I am happy they are back in the ballpark. Anything over 230 mph is impressive. For years when IndyCar kept the revs down during Honda's period as sole engine supplier, we only saw speeds in the mid-220s. Maybe someone would get over 227 mph or 228 mph, but it wasn't as exhilarating. 

For too long people tried to sell 226 or 227 as being good enough. It was still fast, and as long as it was close for pole position, who cares what the speed is? 

Those people can eat it. The last few years we have seen the cars on the ragged edge. The already minuscule margin for error shrunk that much more and it is clearer who has it and who doesn't. 

We may never hear "it's a new track record" again, but we also need to recognize how absurd Arie Luydenyk's run in 1996 was. He was nearly three miles per hour clear of the field that year. No one was flirting with 235 mph let alone 236 mph at that time. We can live in the 233 zip code and flirt with 234 mph. This is good enough. 

3. Arrow McLaren SP are there as well. Patricio O'Ward was second at 233.037 mph. Felix Rosenqvist ran a 232.775 mph four-lap average in third. Both these cars looked good in practice. I think we felt more confident O'Ward would be there considering Rosenqvist hasn't had a great month of May yet in his career. 

O'Ward is just another part of this youth movement. We see it with VeeKay on top. O'Ward has generally been considered more successful that VeeKay of the young drivers, and rightfully so. O'Ward has won more races and had better championship finishes. We cannot forget Colton Herta is also a part of this group. Someone is going to breakthrough and win this race first. VeeKay could still become the youngest winner. O'Ward can no longer become the youngest winner but he could become second. It is lining up for the youngest winner or one of the youngest winners to happen. 

As for Rosenqvist, he has been in funk for the last two-plus years, but in 2022 we are seeing pace out of him everywhere in qualifying. It is there, it just has to click. You don't accidentally run 232.775 mph. But it has to click soon. 

4. It felt like the Chevrolets were better, but when you look at the next three positions and see three Chip Ganassi Racing entries, I think it is more balanced despite Chevrolet taking the top three. Álex Palou was 0.0007 seconds off Rosenqvist in fourth. Tony Kanaan hit 232.625 mph and Jimmie Johnson was at 232.398 mph. 

Ganassi has looked great since the April test. We will cover the rest of the Ganassi cars in a moment, but it is no surprise all five made the Fast 12. It was setting up that way since the first laps of the year were run around this 2.5-mile oval. Palou isn't as young as VeeKay, O'Ward and Herta but Palou has been toward the top in all three years he has visited the speedway. 

Kanaan still has it. There is something fitting about him being quick again. He is reminding us about the veteran know how and perhaps this will be his year for a second. We cannot rule it out after Takuma Sato won his second and Hélio Castroneves got his fourth.  

Credit to Johnson after brushing the wall yesterday to get back out there and nail his qualifying run. He wasn't spooked, and he had every right to be. 

Let's just get the other two Ganassi cars out of the way. Marcus Ericsson was eighth at 232.275 mph. Scott Dixon was tenth at 232.151 mph. Ericsson and Dixon were both later qualifiers. If Dixon had gone earlier I think he cracks the top three. The same could be said for Palou considering Palou went immediately after Dixon. Ganassi should get a car on the front row tomorrow.

5. Ed Carpenter was seventh at 232.397 mph. That feels about right.

6. The lone Andretti Autosport participant in the Fast 12 will be Romain Grosjean. Who had that? Grosjean was eighth at 232.201 mph. Andretti Autosport is all over the map, but we will focus on Grosjean here. He was quiet all of practice. He never put up a significant time that grabbed your attention. He was confident about his qualifying pace though, and it showed today, but I think the sixth spot in the qualifying line was in his favor. If he went out where Alexander Rossi went out I think there is a good chance Grosjean would have fallen on the outside. 

7. Will Power will be the lone Team Penske participant in the Fast 12. Power ran 231.842 mph over four laps. The Penske cars are quick. Josef Newgarden just missed out and Scott McLaughlin made what was the wrong decision in hindsight to withdraw his time, losing what would have been a row five spot, only to go slower and end up 26th. These result do not flatter the Penske organization, but I expect all these cars to go forward on race day. Hell, Power has a chance to improve his starting position and make his job easier tomorrow.

8. Takuma Sato got the final Fast 12 spot by the skin of his teeth after what was an eventful day for the two-time Indianapolis 500 winner. 

Sato's first attempt was 232.196 mph. He would have been tenth after the first run through the qualifying line. But Sato made a bonehead error and stayed on the racetrack on his cool down lap in turns three and four. He impeded Marco Andretti, who was on his out lap. IndyCar penalized Sato and took his time off the board, forcing Sato to qualify again. 

It was the right choice. I don't know why Sato missed the access road on the inside of the turns. It has been there the entire time Sato has been at Indianapolis. Mistakes happen, but this was nearly costly, and I don't think Sato did a great job staying out of the way. I would have been fine if IndyCar parked Sato for the rest of qualifying. He is going to be in the field no matter what. It wouldn't have been a case of preventing him from making the race, but that type of mistake shouldn't happen. 

Anyway, Sato had to qualify again, and he brushed the wall exiting turn two on his final qualifying lap, but still completed the run and wound up 12th at 231.708 mph. Dale Coyne Racing has some speed. Sato bumped out David Malukas, who was respectable at 231.607 mph. 

I think pole position is a stretch for Sato since he will be first out tomorrow, but never say never with this guy. 

9. Let's run through some of the rows. Row four will be Malukas, Newgarden and Santino Ferrucci, who quietly gets his best Indianapolis 500 starting position. 

Row six will be Simon Pagenaud, J.R. Hildebrand and Conor Daly. Pagenaud has been solidly in the middle all week. Hildebrand again is the top Foyt qualifier at Indianapolis, and he has been stout each day. Daly didn't have a great draw, but he was three spots ahead of Carpenter and Carpenter made the Fast 12. The weak link is clear. 

Callum Ilott has been good all week. I am not sure Ilott could ask for a better first experience. He qualified 19th. He hasn't had his hands full once. He has a lot to learn, and it is a long race, but he is comfortable driving for a small team. That is a good start for him. 

Alexander Rossi was 20th and will start in the middle of row seven. Andretti Autosport hasn't been as dialed in the last two years at Indianapolis. Rossi had a tough draw again, and his first attempt had him 15th at 231.341 mph. He went the wrong way on his second run when the track wasn't in better conditions. He was only at 230.812 mph. If Rossi was sixth in the line like Grosjean, I think he makes the Fast 12, but Ganassi showed you can qualify anywhere and make the Fast 12. Power was the penultimate qualifier and he made it. Andretti just doesn't have it. 

Graham Rahal was 21st and the best Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry. Its qualifying woes continue. 

Nazareth natives Sage Karam and Marco Andretti start next to each other on row eight with Devlin DeFrancesco. 

10. Let's give Colton Herta his own section, because he wound up 25th, but lost an engine as he was heading out for his first qualifying attempt. Herta hasn't look phenomenal this week. The Fast 12 might have always been out of reach, but I think Herta was better than 25th today if everything had gone to plan. All the Andretti cars have work to do. Last year, Herta and Rossi started at the front and went backward. Ryan Hunter-Reay was in the top five at the time of his final pit stop but sped entering pit lane. Someone 2022 is shaping up to be worse than 2021 for Andretti Autosport and we are still over a week to race day. 

11. We touched upon Scott McLaughlin, but he had to qualify again because he was in the priority lane where teams re-qualify after withdrawing a time. McLaughlin joined that lane prior to a rain shower. The rains came and delayed the session for a bit. If the session had not restarted, McLaughlin would have kept his time of 231.543 mph. Since it did restart, McLaughlin had to qualify because once you join the line the time is withdrawn. 

However, with how the track changes after a rainstorm, I don't think teams should be forced to take to the track. I understand IndyCar doesn't want teams taking spots in the priority line only to remove the car once it gets to the front. But let's be realistic and fair here. If you make plans to qualify and then rain hits, the track is no longer the same. Rain should be a reset. The conditions have changed the track. Sage Karam was ahead of McLaughlin in line and Newgarden was behind those two. Karam improved on the second attempt, but McLaughlin didn't. Newgarden caught a break because the rain returned when he hit the track. 

Newgarden got the break and McLaughlin had to pay. I don't think that is fair. 

12. Hélio Castroneves had a moment on his first qualifying run and had to go again. Castroneves has not shown great speed and he will start 27th. Neither Kyle Kirkwood nor Dalton Kellett have looked great this month and they will started 28th and 29th respectively. Juan Pablo Montoya will be 30th. 

13. There will be two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entries on row 11: Christian Lundgaard and Jack Harvey. RLLR again is lost in qualifying. This is a habit for this group. Even if there was the pressure of bumping, I still think both these cars would have been in trouble. Neither has looked threatening this week, and this comes down to the team. I am concerned RLLR has spread itself too think with three cars. 

14. Stefan Wilson will get the dubious honor of becoming the fifth driver since time trials decided the Indianapolis 500 field to make the race with an official qualifying speed of 0.000 mph. Ralph Mulford was the first in 1920, Jack Curtner was second in 1922, Alex Tagliani did complete a four-lap run in 2016 on Saturday, but that is when everyone had to re-qualify for their official starting position on Sunday and Tagliani had an accident in that Sunday session, meaning he started 33rd because he did not complete a run, and in 2017, James Davison started 33rd after taking over Sébastien Bourdais' car due to Bourdais' broken pelvis from his Saturday qualifying accident.

Why did Wilson not complete a run? The team mixed up second and third gear when assembling the gearbox and the team had to do a complete rebuild. I will be honest, if there were more than 33 cars, I think you deserve to miss the race if you cannot put a gearbox together right the first time. I know this program was thrown together late, and DragonSpeed is proving the personnel last minute and after running a sports car race last weekend, but that is embarrassing.

15. I want to go over the qualifying line real quick. The top 11 cars all made it based on their first qualifying run. Here are where those cars drew in the qualifying line:

VeeKay: 2nd
O'Ward: 1st
Rosenqvist: 4th
Palou: 19th
Kanaan: 13th
Johnson: 6th
Carpenter: 23rd
Ericsson: 25th
Grosjean: 5th
Dixon: 18th
Power: 32nd

Sato was the only driver to take two attempts to make the Fast 12, and that was only after his brain fade and caused his time to be nullified. It was all moot because Sato's first time would have been good enough and he was the tenth qualifier. 

Five of the first six qualifiers made the Fast 12. Only Callum Ilott missed. I know it is a random draw, and there were still five drivers that made it who were in the second half of the draw, but for the second year in a row it felt like if you drew early you had a great shot of making it and didn't have to run the risk of qualifying again. 

I do not expect the Indianapolis 500 qualifying draw to change, but I think an argument could be made. At all the other oval events, the qualifying order is the inverse of the entrants' championship standings. In this case, doing that in reverse might be a disservice, but I don't think the championship should determine the order for Indianapolis 500 qualifying. We have enough practice to set the grid. I am not sure if combined practice results should determine the order, fastest practice lap gets first in the line. 

It would be fairer, and we also have to recognize this isn't like qualifying 25 years ago. Not everyone made a qualifying attempt on pole day in the 1980s or 1990s. You didn't have 33 cars lined up to qualify on day one in 1995. In 1995, only 19 cars completed a pole day run. In 1993, only 15 cars completed a qualifying run on pole day. The qualifying line was shorter. There were more teams passing over attempting a pole day run. 

In 2022, everyone has to go on day one. You cannot wait until the track opens up. It never does. Remember when the track would open for practice when no one was in the qualifying line? That is not happening ever again under the current format. 

Qualifying itself has changed drastically over the last 15 years let alone the last 25 or 30 years. I think it is worth a discussion about changes to deciding the qualifying order. 

16. How do we look for tomorrow? Temperature will go down. It will have rained and washed all the rubber from the track. There will be a practice session early tomorrow. I am not sure why anyone would make a run. That is too risky in my book. The speeds are going to be incredible either way. I wasn't expecting 233 mph at the start of the week. I was ready to be in the 231-range again. There are plenty of big boppers ready to go tomorrow. I don't think we get a 234-mph average, but there is a good chance making the Fast Six will require something close to 233 mph and the top time could surpass what VeeKay accomplished today.



106th Indianapolis 500 Qualifying Preview

Three practice days are behind us ahead of the 106th Indianapolis 500. Now it is time for qualifying. 

There have been a few surprises at the top of the time charts, but the usual suspects are still around. With 6,816 practice laps run over the three days, we have learned a lot about the 33 entries for this year's race. We have some idea about who is a player for pole position, who is in contention to make the Fast 12 and who is thankful a 34th entry never materialized. 

Where does everyone lay entering this weekend and what is in store for the next two days? We will set the picture for Indianapolis 500 qualifications. 

Who is in Play for the Fast 12?
Takuma Sato topped all three practice days. The two-time Indianapolis 500 winner is looking to qualify in the top 12 for the fifth time in his 13th Indianapolis 500 attempt and Sato has looked quick the entire week. It isn't just Sato. David Malukas has the fourth-best average practice result at 5.667. 

Sato's no tow times were not spectacular the first two days in 11th and 29th, but he led the no tow report on Friday. Malukas was fifth on the no tow report on Tuesday and seventh on Friday. Malukas' average no tow result is 11th, putting him tenth in the ranking. 

Alexander Rossi was in the top ten of the no tow report all three days and his average of fifth has him with the best ranking. The only other driver in the top ten of the no tow report all three days was Scott McLaughlin, who tied Rinus VeeKay for the second best average no tow result at 6.667. VeeKay topped the no tow report on Tuesday and was second on Wednesday behind Will Power. Scott Dixon had the fourth best no tow ranking at 7.667, just ahead of Power's average of eighth. 

Ed Carpenter was second and third in the no tow report the first two days, the only driver besides Rossi and VeeKay in the top five for multiple days.

In terms of overall practice position, Dixon was in the top five all three days, ending up second, second and fifth. Marcus Ericsson had the third best average of fifth, and Ericsson was fourth on the no tow report Tuesday and Friday with a 24th-place from Thursday sandwiched in-between. 

Sage Karam did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday, but he was sixth on Thursday and 13th on Friday. Josef Newgarden's no tow reports results were 14th, seventh and tenth. Arrow McLaren SP had encouraging overall practice results. Felix Rosenqvist and Patricio O'Ward ranked sixth and seventh respectively in average overall practice result. O'Ward was 11th in average no tow report ranking, and he was third in Friday's no tow report. Rosenqvist was sixth on Friday's no tow report, but he was 15th or worse the other two days. 

Tony Kanaan was eighth on Friday's no tow report, while Álex Palou was 12th and earlier in the week Palou was eighth on Tuesday's no tow report. Jimmie Johnson was third on Tuesday's no tow report, but he was 23rd and 19th the next two days. Johnson did brush the wall in Friday practice, but the crew repaired the car and Johnson was able to make a run late in the day. Johnson did have the fifth best average overall practice ranking at 8.333 after being third and fifth the first two days. 

Who is glad there isn't a 34th entry?
Stefan Wilson was 33rd overall the first two days and then 27th on Friday. Wilson' no tow results were 26th, 32nd and 27th, the worst average in the no tow ranking. 

Juan Pablo Montoya is only slightly better than Wilson, but his three overall results were 31st, 25th and 32nd. Montoya ranked 32nd in the average no tow result at 26.5, only registering no tow laps on Tuesday and Friday. 

A.J. Foyt Racing is a tad of a concern. Kyle Kirkwood's overall results were 26th, 19th and 29th. Kirkwood did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday but was 18th and 28th on Thursday and Friday. Dalton Kellett's average no tow result was 24.667 while J.R. Hildebrand's was 26th, only ahead of Montoya and Wilson. 

For a team that historically has had poor qualifying runs, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing probably wished things went better. Graham Rahal failed to break into the top 20 overall on any of the three practice days, and his average overall practice result was 24th, placing him 29th in the ranking. Jack Harvey and Christian Lundgaard were tied for 26th in average overall practice result ranking with Romain Grosjean. Lundgaard was 27th or worse on two of three days while Harvey was 25th or worse on two of three days. 

In terms of no tow report, Rahal ranked 23rd with an average no tow result of 19.667 while Lundgaard was 26th at 22.667 and Harvey was 30th at 25.333.

The driver with the third worst average overall practice result was Colton Herta. He was 28th, 16th and 33rd over the three days, averaging 25.667. Friday's windy weather did alter how much running each team did, and Herta's no tow results were a little more encouraging. He was 16th and tenth on the first two practice days. Romain Grosjean was 14th on Friday's no tow report, but he was 24th and 31st the first two days, leaving him 28th in the no tow ranking. 

Who is in the middle?
Simon Pagenaud was tenth in average overall practice result and Marco Andretti was ranked 11th. Pagenaud was 13th, ninth and 21st over the three days. Andretti was 11th, 15th and 18th. However, on the no tow report, neither Pagenaud nor Andretti cracked the top ten on any of the three days. 

Conor Daly was 17th, 18th and 14th overall on each of the three days. Daly did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday, but he was eighth on Thursday's no tow report and 20th on Friday's no tow report. 

Hélio Castroneves might have had the second most consistent lap week behind Takuma Sato. Castroneves was 22nd, 22nd and 19th in the three overall standings. He did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday but was 12th and 16th the next two days. 

Who Has Not Yet Been Mentioned?
Callum Ilott, Devlin DeFrancesco and Santino Ferrucci. 

Ilott ranks tied for 22nd in average overall practice result with Castroneves, but he ranks 19th for average no tow result. 

DeFrancesco was ninth on Thursday's no tow report, but he was 22nd and 25th the other two days, just behind Ilott but just ahead of Herta.

Ferrucci was 19th, 26th and 26th overall on each of the three practice days. He didn't register a no tow report lap on Tuesday, but was 18th and 26th the final two days. Ferrucci's starting position in his three Indianapolis 500 starts were 23rd, 19th and 23rd. 

What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?
Last year, eight of the Fast Nine drivers made it on their first qualifying attempt. Of those nine drivers, four were within the first eight qualifiers. Scott Dixon was the first car out, Ryan Hunter-Reay was third out, Hélio Castroneves was fourth to the racetrack and Tony Kanaan was eighth out. 

The other four drivers that made it based on their first qualifying run were Ed Carpenter, who was the 19th car out, the 27th car out in Álex Palou, Colton Herta, who was two after Palou in 29th in line, and Marcus Ericsson was 31st car to make a run. 

The only Fast Nine participant that improved on a second attempt to make it was Rinus VeeKay, who was 12th after his first run at 230.841 mph, the tenth attempt through the line. VeeKay's second run averaged 231.483 mph and put him fifth fastest among the day one speeds. 

Last year, there were 51 completed qualifying attempts and another eight that were waved off. Thirteen drivers completed multiple attempts, and of those 13 drivers, seven improved on their qualifying speed, but one of those was Will Power, who improved but his time was still not good enough to make the top 30, and another was Josef Newgarden, whose time improved, but his position remained the same.

Only two teams made three attempts on Saturday last year, Simona de Silvestro, who ended up participating in the Last Row shootout, and Stefan Wilson, whose subsequent two qualifying attempts did not improve on his first time set. 

What is the Qualifying Order?
Chevrolet controls the early portion of qualifying and Patricio O'Ward will lead the field out onto the track. Rinus VeeKay follows before Callum Ilott and Felix Rosenqvist. The next three qualifiers will be the Hondas of Romain Grosjean, Jimmie Johnson and Devlin DeFrancesco. Four of the seven rookies are in the first seven qualifiers. 

One-offs J.R. Hildebrand and Juan Pablo Montoya will follow the string of rookies before Takuma Sato and Marco Andretti round out the first third of the qualifying line. Graham Rahal makes it two consecutive famous last names in the qualifying order before Tony Kanaan hits the track. David Malukas will be the 14th qualifier before Santino Ferrucci and Colton Herta.

The middle qualifier will be Stefan Wilson ahead of the Ganassi pair of Scott Dixon and Álex Palou. Conor Daly is 20th before Hélio Castroneves, and the first Team Penske qualifier will be Scott McLaughlin, rounding out the second third of the line.

Ed Carpenter is 23rd in line ahead of Alexander Rossi, Marcus Ericsson, Jack Harvey and Sage Karam. Josef Newgarden is the next Penske qualifier in 28th. Christian Lundgaard and Simon Pagenaud round out the first 30 qualifiers. Kyle Kirkwood is the final rookie in the line in 31st. Will Power and Dalton Kellett round out the line.

What is the Weather Forecast?
Thunderstorms threaten Saturday's on-track action. There is an 80% chance of precipitation with chances increasing around 2:00 p.m. ET, three hour into the qualifying session. It is forecasted to rain from that time until 5:00 a.m. Sunday. The forecasted high on Saturday is 82º F. Winds will start out from the Southwest at 11 mph.

Temperatures will drop into Sunday with the rain. The high temperature will remain 64º F under overcast skies. The winds will be moving North Northwest at around 12 mph.

What happens if it rains Saturday?
It all comes down to whether or not the entire field has at least had the chance at a qualifying attempt. 

If IndyCar gets through the entire qualifying line on Saturday then Saturday's session is official and whatever the top 12 is should the session reach its finishing time or is concluded early due to weather will advance into tomorrow's session. 

For Saturday qualifying, if a team pulls out of line, misses its place in line, waves off an attempt or does not complete an attempt for any variety of reasons, it will still count as an attempt through the qualifying line. If only 30 cars have completed a qualifying attempt once they have reached the end of the qualifying line and the other three cars did not complete a four-lap run because they chose not to or had an accident, the session will still be considered official. 

If rain interrupts the qualifying line and not every car has had an attempt then all the times will be taken off the board and another chance at qualifying will take place Sunday morning or early afternoon before hopefully completing the Fast 12 format at its scheduled time. 

What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
Due to the impending weather, the morning practice has been shortened to a 60-minute session starting at 8:30 a.m. ET on Saturday with the field split into two groups. Group A will take the first 30 minutes and Group B will have the track for the second 30 minutes. 

Day one qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. and run through 5:50 p.m. The top 12 drivers at the end of the first qualifying day will advance to the Fast 12 session. Since there are only 33 entries, positions tenth through 33rd at the end of Saturday will be locked in the field and their starting position will be final. Rows four through 11 on the grid will be set. 

Sunday begins with a 90-minute practice session at 12:30 p.m. for the Fast 12 drivers. The Fast 12 session will begin at 4:00 p.m. ET. After the 12 cars have run, the fastest six will advance to the final round of qualifying, which will immediately follow the Fast 12 session. 

On Monday, there will be a two-hour practice session for the entire field at 1:00 p.m.


Tuesday, May 17, 2022

106th Indianapolis 500 Practice Preview

After two street course races, two road course races and an oval, IndyCar heads into the Indianapolis 500 portion of the calendar, a full week of practice before a weekend of qualifying and two additional practice days ahead of Memorial Day weekend. 

Only 33 cars are entered for this year's race, the second time in three years there will not be bumping. Honda leads the way with 17 entries to Chevrolet's 16 entries. Eight past winners are entered, but there are also seven rookies entered, which will be the most rookies since 2014.

With an abundance of practice and another stellar entry list, there is plenty of pay attention to over the next four days as we await to find out what history will be written on race day. 

What is the schedule?
Practice opens on Tuesday May 17 with a two-hour veteran's practice session from 9:00 a.m. ET to 11:00 a.m. ET. At 1:00 p.m., the Rookie Orientation and Refresher program will take place for two hours. At 3:00 p.m., a three-hour session will be held for all cars. 

From Wednesday through Friday, all three days will have six hours of practice, starting at noon and ending at 6:00 p.m.

There will be a 90-minute practice session held at 9:00 a.m. on Saturday May 21. The entrants will be split into two groups for this session. Group one will get the track for the first 45 minutes before group two gets the track for the final 45 minutes. Qualifying will begin at noon on Saturday and will run until 5:50 p.m. 

The fastest 12 cars from Saturday will advance to the second round of qualifying on Sunday. Those 12 cars will get a 90-minute session starting at 12:30 p.m. The Fast 12 session will be held at 4:00 p.m. The top six from that session will advance to the Fast Six and determine pole position for the 106th Indianapolis 500.

On Monday May 23, there will be a two-hour practice for all cars beginning at noon.

What is the forecast?
The week opens with a mostly sunny day Tuesday, a high around 80º F with Northwestern winds moving at 8 mph. Rain is forecast to roll in on Wednesday with a 83% chance of precipitation and the high dropping to 71º F with winds moving from the South at 13 mph. 

Thursday clears up but should remain partly cloudy. The high should rise back to 84º F with a Southwestern wind at 10 mph. Thunderstorms could hinder the next two days. Friday has a 42% chance of precipitation with storms more likely in the afternoon. The high will be around 88º F but the wind will increase to 20 mph from the South Southwest. 

There is a 51% chance of precipitation on Saturday with the high dropping to 72º F. The winds should be from the West Southwest at 12 mph. Sunday is forecast to be the coolest day of the week. A high of 66º F with the winds still moving at 11 mph, but from the Northwest. Chance of precipitation drops to 24% for Sunday.

Monday has a high of 68º F with mostly sunny skies and an 8 mph wind from the East Northeast. The chance of precipitation is 9%. 

Who will participate in Rookie Orientation and the Refresher?
Thanks to the late April two-day test, the only driver needing to complete Rookie Oreintation or the Refresher is Stefan Wilson. 

Wilson is entered in the #25 DragonSpeed/Cusick Motorsports Chevrolet. The team is using a chassis on loan from A.J. Foyt Racing. Wilson is back for his fourth Indianapolis 500 attempt, and this is the first time he has made attempts in consecutive years. 

Who is not there?
Nine drivers from the 105th Indianapolis 500 entry list are not on the 106th Indianapolis 500 entry list. 

The most notable missing entry is the 98th Indianapolis 500 winner Ryan Hunter-Reay. After 14 consecutive starts, Hunter-Reay will not be at the Indianapolis 500 for the first time since 2007. He had made 11 of his 14 starts with Andretti Autosport. He had top ten finishes in three of the last four years.

Also missing from this year's entry list is another Andretti Autosport driver from 2021, James Hinchcliffe. Hinchcliffe will be at the race, but in the broadcast booth as a driver analyst.

Another driver that is not entered but will be at the track on race day is Charlie Kimball. Kimball has moved from the driver's seat to the pit stand as a co-strategist for Ed Carpenter.

Sébastien Bourdais will not be at Indianapolis, the second time in three years he is not entered. Bourdais has turned his focus to the Chip Ganassi Racing Cadillac DPi program in IMSA. Simona de Silvestro will not run the Indianapolis 500 with Paretta Autosport, but de Silvestro and the Paretta organization has announced a three-race program for later this season at Road America, Mid-Ohio and Nashville.

Ed Jones and Pietro Fittipaldi both drove for Dale Coyne Racing last year, but neither will be back in 2022. Fittipaldi is competing in the European Le Mans for Inter Europol Competition in the LMP2 class while also being a Haas F1 reserve driver. Jones has moved to the FIA World Endurance Championship in an LMP2 entry with Jota Sport. 

With Carlin exiting IndyCar, Max Chilton will not be back for a possible sixth Indianapolis 500 start. RC Enerson missed the race last year driving for Top Gun Racing. Enerson is turning his attention to a possible full-time IndyCar program in 2023.

The Rookie Class
The class of 2022 is one of the most experienced classes in recent memory. 

The notables are seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson and Formula One veteran Romain Grosjean. Johnson has already won five times on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval, four in the Brickyard 400 and one IROC race. Grosjean has two oval starts to his name, Gateway last year and Texas this year. 

Johnson could become the third oldest rookie in Indianapolis 500 history behind only Jean Alesi and Jack Hewitt. 

While there is age, there is also youth. From the Road to Indy path, reigning Indy Lights champion Kyle Kirkwood, reigning Indy Lights vice-champion David Malukas, and Devlin DeFrancesco are entered. 

From the European path, Christian Lundgaard and Callum Ilott look to make their Indianapolis 500 debut after competing in Formula Two on the path to Formula One. 

DeFrancesco, Malukas and Lundgaard were born in the 21st century. Malukas or Lundgaard could become the youngest Indianapolis 500 winner.

What trends should we know for the Fast 12 and the race?
Typically, topping a no tow report meant a driver would make the Fast Nine. Last year, Alexander Rossi topped the no tow report on two days and wound up tenth in qualifying. Jack Harvey topped the no tow report in Thursday practice and qualified 20th. Ed Carpenter topped the no tow report in Tuesday practice and ended up fourth on the final grid. 

Prior to last year, on three occasions had a driver topped a no tow report and failed to make the Fast Nine, Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2017, Tony Kanaan in 2018 and Harvey in 2020. Hunter-Reay and Kanaan each started tenth while Harvey started 20th as well in 2020. 

With the Fast Nine expanding to the Fast 12, topping the no tow report appears to almost assure a driver will make second round of qualifying. 

Scott Dixon had the second best average no tow report result last year and wound up winning pole position. Dixon did have the best average overall practice result last year, and he topped two practice sessions including Fast Friday. 

Last year, eight of the Fast Nine were ranked in the top 11 among average overall practice result. The exception was Hélio Castroneves, who was ranked 14th in average overall practice result.

For the second consecutive year, Team Penske failed to get a Fast Nine participant with Scott McLaughlin as the top qualifier in 17th ahead of Josef Newgarden in 21st, Simon Pagenaud in 26th and Will Power had to compete in the Last Row Shootout before landing 32nd on the grid.

In the 11 years the Fast Nine session took place, Andretti Autosport took 25 of 99 spots, two better than Team Penske. Ed Carpenter Racing was third with 15 and Chip Ganassi Racing is fourth on 12. The next closest team is the Arrow McLaren SP organization with five. Meyer Shank Racing had its first Fast Nine spot last year, becoming the 15th different team to make the Fast Nine. 

Honda took seven of the Fast Nine spots last year. In the last two years, Honda has taken 15 of 18 spots. Honda was 10th and 11th last year, while Patricio O'Ward made it a third Chevrolet in the top 12.

Castroneves became the third Indianapolis 500 winner in the DW12-era to not be in the top five in any of the practice days. The first driver not to do it was Tony Kanaan in 2013. Kanaan's best practice result that year was seventh and that was on opening day. In 2015, Juan Pablo Montoya's best practice day was sixth on Thursday ahead of his second victory. Only once in last ten years has the Indianapolis 500 winner topped a practice session in the practice week. That was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014, who topped the Monday practice before qualifying.

Castroneves also became the second Indianapolis 500 winner in the last ten years not to be in the top ten for multiple practice days. His practice results were 22nd, 13th, seventh and 12th last year. In 2018, Will Power was 19th, 21st, 13th and fifth over the four practice days.

How slow will they go?
With only 33 entries, there will not be the pressure for speed at the rear of the field. Any time will do. 

Last year, the slowest speed in the qualifying field was 228.323 mph with Dalton Kellett while Scott Dixon topped the Saturday session at 231.828 mph. In 2020, when the race was held in August due to the pandemic and only 33 cars entered, Ben Hanley had the slowest speed at 222.917 mph while the top seven runners ran over 231 mph in the Saturday qualifying session. It wasn't only Hanley taking his time. Four other cars ran below 228 mph. 

In 2019, it took 227.244 mph to lock a car into the top 30 while Spencer Pigot had the top qualifying run on Saturday at 230.083 mph. In 2018, Castroneves ran the fastest time during Saturday qualifying at 228.919 mph. James Davison was the 33rd fastest car at 224.798 mph. 

What will this race mean for the championship?
The championship lead has changed after each of the last three races and there have been four different drivers to lead the championship through five races this season. 

With qualifying points increasing to 12 points for pole position, there are now 115 points on the table for the Indianapolis 500. It is possible for a driver to have a 105-point swing in the Indianapolis 500 alone, and 105 points cover the top 18 drivers in the championship entering this race. 

The championship lead has changed after the Indianapolis 500 in five of the eight seasons since double points were introduced to the event. Twice has the driver entering the Indianapolis 500 second in the championship left the Indianapolis 500 as the points leader (Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014 and Álex Palou last year). In 2017, Castroneves went from fourth to the championship lead off his runner-up finish to Takuma Sato. In 2018, Will Power's victory lifted him from seventh to the championship lead. In 2019, Simon Pagenaud went from fourth to championship leader with his victory. 

Of those five drivers, Hunter-Reay overcame a one-point deficit, Castroneves overcame a 42-point gulf, Power was 43 points down, Pagenaud trailed by 44 points and Palou was 13 points in the hole. 

Forty-four points cover Will Power in first and Patricio O'Ward in seventh of the championship. 

Last year, for the second consecutive year, there were seven different teams represented in the top ten of the Indianapolis 500, but there were seven different teams represented in the top seven. Ed Carpenter Racing, Arrow McLaren SP and Chip Ganassi Racing each had two representatives and each of those three teams had a car finish in the top five. 

Six of the ten Indianapolis 500 winners in the DW12-era have been first-time winners. Takuma Sato is the only driver to have won multiple Indianapolis 500s in the DW12 chassis.


Monday, May 16, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: What if Jimmie Johnson Wins the Indianapolis 500?

Colton Herta made one of the all-time best saves and then went on to win on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. A few NASCAR drivers tried their best Herta impression. Acura continued its Mid-Ohio dominance. The Bathurst 12 Hour was back. McLaren is joining Formula E. Andretti Autosport has a new partner in Porsche. Chip Ganassi Racing has a new development driver for IndyCar that will likely never drive an IndyCar for that team. There were some surprise Road to Indy winners in Indianapolis. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

What if Jimmie Johnson Wins the Indianapolis 500?
Like it or not, the most eyes will be on Jimmie Johnson from now until the checkered flag waves at the end of the 106th Indianapolis 500. 

The seven-time NASCAR champion will be competing in the biggest oval race for the first time in his career, and after all his oval success in NASCAR, expectations and curiosity are high for his maiden Indianapolis 500 start. 

Johnson's oval experience towers over the combined oval experience of the rest of the IndyCar grid, and though Johnson is still relatively new to the car, the belief is he will have an upper hand compared to most of the competitors. Before practice even begins, Johnson is in the top-tier group of hopefuls. He is mentioned in the same breath as Scott Dixon, Hélio Castroneves, Álex Palou, Patricio O'Ward, Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Alexander Rossi as a potential winner, a gathering and an accomplishment Johnson has not been close to sniffing since he joined IndyCar at the start of the 2021 season. 

His first oval start was encouraging. Though he started 18th, Johnson made moves throughout the race, kept the car going straight and finished sixth in Texas, but he was challenging for a top five finish. Johnson's testing pace at Indianapolis in April were also good, ending up eighth on the combined results with his fastest lap average 227.900 mph, by far the fastest rookie. 

After being out of his element in 16 road/street course starts, Johnson is back on his own playground when it comes to ovals. It is a little different, but it fits how Johnson ticks after over 20 years in stock car racing. It is faster and there might be a greater number of adjustments to the car, but Johnson knows how an oval works. He doesn't have to search out a braking point or learn to trust the downforce levels going through a corner. This is his bread and butter. 

A Johnson victory would be one of the most historic things ever accomplished in motorsports. Johnson would become the third driver with an Indianapolis 500 victory and a Daytona 500 victory. The other two drivers? Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt. Is that list good enough for you? Foyt was the second of the two to win both, winning the 1972 Daytona 500. It has been 50 years since it happened. Johnson would become the first NASCAR Cup Series champion to win the Indianapolis 500. 

A few have Cup champions tried. Cale Yarborough, Bobby Allison, Tony Stewart made four Indianapolis 500 starts before becoming a Cup champion, Kurt Busch's lone Indianapolis 500 start was a decade after his lone Cup title. Johnson could separate him from the rest of the group in a highly coveted way. 

To do something only Andretti and Foyt have done before and to become the first to win two highly regarded prizes, Johnson would further cement his status as one of the best drivers to ever hit the track, but after his first year in an IndyCar and his oval results this year it must be asked, would an Indianapolis 500 victory mean Johnson is a great driver or a great oval driver? 

Johnson has had the stuffing kicked out of him on road and street courses in an IndyCar, regularly starting outside the top twenty and finishing off the lead lap. One Indianapolis 500 victories does not mean we can ignore his results on the other two-thirds of the schedule. Andretti and Foyt won everywhere. They won on ovals and road courses. Andretti won in Formula One. Foyt won the 24 Hours of Le Mans and the 24 Hours of Daytona. It is difficult to say Johnson is better than those two when he has trouble beating Dalton Kellett and Tatiana Calderón on the racetrack. 

The 21st century is a different era for motorsports. Cross-pollination is unheard of when in the 1960s and 1970s it was common for a driver to dabble in open-wheel racing, stock car racing, sports car racing and so on. Johnson's career was highly specialized driving in NASCAR. He went out and made a few sports car starts, but his open-wheel experience did not come until he was already 45 years old. The muscle memory developed in a stock car is almost permanent for Johnson, and in turn that makes it more challenging for him to find the limits in an IndyCar. He is trying his best and deserves credit for getting out of his comfort zone, but we don't decide who are among the all-time greats based on effort and taking chances. We decide it on results. 

There is nothing wrong with acknowledging Johnson as a great oval driver, and he would deserve the adoration should he win the Indianapolis 500. Many from NASCAR could have taken this shot years before Johnson and perhaps made a name for themselves. Outside of Kurt Busch, none have attempted the Indianapolis 500. Johnson now has a chance to write his own piece of history and set the standard for every driver that is to follow.

But we cannot forget the entirety of Johnson's career. It would be easy to overlook the 24th-place finishes at Barber Motorsports Park and Belle Isle if Johnson won the Indianapolis 500, but that would be a disservice to entire IndyCar grid, undermine the series and frankly be unfair to Johnson himself. Part of Johnson's legacy should be this struggle. This chance is something most would not attempt. Johnson went from being one of the best ever in NASCAR to fighting to prove himself in IndyCar. Pride would prevent many from starting over and running at the back. Johnson has swallowed that and followed a dream to race in IndyCar. 

There are many other questions and identity crises we could tackle about a hypothetical Jimmie Johnson Indianapolis 500 victory, but should it happen we should take a moment to appreciate that we got to see it. A year after Hélio Castroneves won his fourth Indianapolis 500, Johnson winning the Indianapolis 500 would create a special period in the history of this race, something akin to the 1960s when the likes of Parnelli Jones, A.J. Foyt, Jim Clark and Graham Hill all won in a four-year period soon to be followed by another Foyt victory, Bobby Unser's first and Mario Andretti's only. 

For all the hand-wringing and insufferable commentary that could come from a Johnson victory, we must remember how special it would be and how it would stay with us for the rest of our lives. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Colton Herta, but did you know...

The #75 SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG of Jules Gounon, Kenny Habul, Luca Stolz and Martin Konrad won the Bathurst 12 Hour.

Enea Bastianini won MotoGP's French Grand Prix, his second victory of the season. Augusto Fernández won the Moto2 race, his first victory since Misano 2019. Jaume Masià won the Moto3 race, his second victory of the season. Mattia Casadei and Dominique Aegerter split the MotoE races. 

Danial Frost and Linus Lundqvist split the Indy Lights races on the IMS road course. Salvador de Alba, Reece Gold and Louie Foster split the Indy Pro 2000 races. Alex Quinn swept the U.S. F2000 races on his debut weekend.

Edoardo Mortara and Nyck de Vries split the Formula E races from Berlin.

The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Ricky Taylor and Filipe Albuquerque won the IMSA race from Mid-Ohio, the second consecutive victory for the team and Acura's fifth consecutive Mid-Ohio victory. The #81 DragonSpeed Oreca-Gibson of Juan Pablo Montoya and Henrik Hedman won in LMP2. The #54 CORE Autosport Ligier-Nissan of Colin Braun and Jon Bennett won in LMP3. The #96 Turner Motorsport BMW of Bill Auberlen and Robby Foley won in GTD after the #70 Inception Racing McLaren of Jordan Pepper and Brandon Iribe was disqualified after failing post-race inspection for being underweight.

The #9 Prema Racing Oreca-Gibson of Lorenzo Colombo, Louis Delétraz and Ferdinand Habsburg won the 4 Hours of Imola. The #3 United Autosports Ligier-Nissan of Kay van Berlo and Andrew Bentley won in LMP3. The #69 Oman Racing with TF Sport Aston Marin of Ahmad Al Harthy, Sam De Haan and Marco Sørensen won in GTE.

Kurt Busch won the NASCAR Cup race from Kansas. Zane Smith won the Truck race, his third victory of the season.

The #32 Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Audi of Dries Vanthoor and Charles Weerts and the #89 AKKodis ASP Team Mercedes-AMG of Raffaele Marciello and Timur Boguslavskiy split the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup races from Magny-Cours.

Coming Up This Weekend
Indianapolis 500 time trials. 
Formula One will be in Barcelona. 
NASCAR has its all-star weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. 
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters has its first race in Germany, Lausitzring specifically.
Super Formula has its fourth race of the season at Autopolis. 
World Superbike makes its first visit to Portugal and will run at Estoril.
The World Rally Championship will also be in Portugal. 
Supercars race at Winton. 
GT World Challenge America is at NOLA Motorsports Park after a late rescheduling.