Track Walk: Portland 2024

The 14th round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season brings the series to Portland International Raceway for the final road course race of the season. Portland moves up to August for the first time in the event's history after spending five years in September, four of which were on Labor Day weekend, and after originally running in June for its first 24 editions on the calendar. Honda and Chevrolet have traded victories at the circuit since it returned in 2018 with Honda holding an edge of three victories to two entering this weekend. Based on the pattern, it should be Chevrolet's weekend to shine. After the chaotic evening race at Gateway Motorsports Park, 14 drivers remain mathematically alive for the championship.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday August 25 with green flag scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Georgia Henneberry will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 5:55 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: 12:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 3:30 p.m. ET 

Final Practice: 8:15 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 3:20 p.m. ET (110 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

Palou's Moment to Pounce

Fifty-nine points is Álex Palou's championship lead with four races remaining. If Palou can keep his championship lead above 49 points after Portland and the Milwaukee doubleheader, for the second consecutive season he will clinch the championship with a race to spare. He will also become the 13th driver with at least three IndyCar championships, and it would be the 17th time in IndyCar history a driver won the title in consecutive seasons. 

The stage could not be better set for Palou to achieve history. 

Though the final two circuits are completely foreign to him, Portland could not have come at a better time for the Catalan driver. In three years, Palou has won twice at the 1.967-mile circuit. With an average finish of 4.667, Portland is one of six circuits where Palou has an average finish inside the top five. He averages 41 points per Portland start, essentially a second-place finish. Nobody has averaged more points per start over the last three Portland races. The numbers are in his favor and it will require someone beating Palou outright to claw back points.

Even if another championship rival beats Palou, in all likelihood, it will not be a significant dent in the championship margin. Palou has not finished outside the top ten on a permanent road course since he was 12th in the 2022 Portland race. In the 13 permanent road course races held since that day in Portland, Palou has won seven of them, stood on the podium after nine of them, finished in the top five in 12 of them, and his worst finish is seventh. His average finish over the last 12 permanent road course races is 2.538. 

Road courses aside, Palou has been flawless everywhere. While he has two results outside the top fifteen this season, he has finished in the top five in his other 11 starts. Only once in the last two seasons has Palou failed to have a top five result in consecutive races, and he finished seventh in both those events. His 11 top five finishes are four more than the next closest driver, meaning no matter what, he has already clinched at least a share of having the most top five finishes in the 2024 season with four races to run.

The results have been coming regardless of where Palou has been starting. In the last two races, Palou has gone from 18th to fourth at Toronto and 16th to fourth at Gateway. He started 16th at Gateway after a nine-spot grid penalty for changing to his fifth engine this season. For the most part, the starting positions have been good. Prior to the last two races, he had started in the top three in four consecutive races and in five of the previous six. 

As good as he is finishing at Portland, Palou is better at qualifying. Among the track where Palou has made at least three starts, Portland ranks number one in average starting position at 3.333. He has started no worse than fifth in his three Portland appearances. All three of Palou's pole positions this season have been on permanent road courses.

What Will It Take For Anyone Else to Get Back In It?

Things look pretty bleak for the rest of the competition after focusing on Palou. No matter what, Palou will leave Portland as the championship leader even if he has his worst race in over two years. That appears to be the only chance for any of the championship contenders to get back into it, but there is a way for some to chip away over the final four races.

Colton Herta's strong summer has him second in the championship, 59 points back. With four races to run, Herta could outscore Palou by 15 points a race to take the championship. That would require Herta finding that extra gear to beat the Ganassi driver. 

Herta's Portland numbers are quite good. In four starts, he has three top ten finishes and an average finish of 7.75. He has started no worse than seventh at Portland. It is difficult to outscore Palou by 15 points when Palou's average finish is over three spots better and inside the top five. However, Herta has been strong on the ovals, even if the results do not show it.

Palou has finished ahead of Herta in three of four oval races this season with the only one in Herta's favor being the one Palou did not finish, the first Iowa race. Coincidentally, Palou's spin in that race kept Herta from finishing any better than 11th as it trapped Herta a lap down as Herta was on pit lane when Palou spun. Herta has finished in the top five of the last two oval races, and he led 86 laps from pole position in the first Iowa race before being caught on pit lane. Palou did lead 103 laps in the second Iowa race before cautions fell into Will Power's favor while Palou took second. 

Despite how the finishes have gone, Herta is not out of it. A good day with a few points going in his favor combined with strong oval finishes could see Herta pull off a remarkable championship run. After all, it would require Palou to finish third to be within 15 points of a race victory for Herta. If Herta is second, Palou would need to finish seventh or better to be within 15 points. Doable, but also something that could play into Herta's favor. 

Scott Dixon fell to 65 points off his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate after Gateway. Dixon's 11th-place result was the fourth time this season Dixon has finished outside the top ten. Dixon had only three finishes outside the top ten combined over the previous two seasons. Last year, Dixon ended with three victories in the final four races, and it will likely take something similar to win the championship. 

Dixon won three of the final four races last year with seven top five finishes and 12 top ten finishes in the first 13 races and Palou still clinched the championship a race early. There was much greater daylight between the Ganassi teammates entering the final four races last year. Palou was 126 points ahead of Dixon, who was third in the championship. After the final four races, Palou was still champion, but Dixon closed to 78 points at the final margin, only a 48-point comeback. 

Dixon's advantage is experience. Dixon has raced at Milwaukee and Nashville, the final two tracks on the schedule. Palou has not. Dixon has also won at both circuits, and he will return to Nashville having won the last three races at the 1.333-mile concrete oval. 

Will Power is only 66 points behind Palou but Power is in a rough run of form. Though Power won the second Iowa race, he has finished outside the top ten in four of the last five races. His average finish since the start of July is 12th. Palou's average finish in the same timeframe is seventh. Power is the most recent driver to lead the championship before Palou took the point. Power led after his Road America victory. He was five points clear of Palou.

Over four races, Power will need to average outscoring Palou by 16.5 points in each event. Power is a past winner on the next two circuits, but Portland could to be more hit-or-miss for the Australian. While he won in 2019 and was second in 2022, Power has finished 21st, 13th and 25th in his other three starts since the circuit returned to the schedule. Add in his Champ Car results and Power has never had consecutive top ten finishes at Portland. His first two results were 18th and fourth. 

Scott McLaughlin is 73 points off Palou. McLaughlin and Palou have both had similar summer stretches. Since the start of July, both drivers have four top five finishes in the last five races. The difference is McLaughlin has four podium finishes, including a victory at Iowa. He has also won pole position in two of those races while Palou has only one pole position in that time. Over the last five races, McLaughlin has scored the most points, 182 with Herta second on 167 points and Palou is third with 158 points. 

Patricio O'Ward is the final driver within 100 points of the championship lead. Ninety-eight points from the top, O'Ward is coming off two consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen after having seven consecutive top ten results prior to this dip. Needing to average scoring 24.5 points more than Palou over the next four races, O'Ward has finished ahead of Palou in only four races this season. In three of those races, Palou still finished inside the top five.

Overlooked Performances

With the championship in firm view with only four races remaining, it is easy to lose track of some good stories happening in IndyCar. This is a chance to recognize some drivers who are on a good run of form into Portland. 

You might not realize that the longest active top ten finish streak is only four races at the moment. You also likely do not realize that the four-race top ten finish streak belongs not to one of the championship contenders but Rinus VeeKay!

VeeKay has finished fifth, ninth, eighth and tenth in the last four races. It is his longest top ten finish streak since 2021. Despite these results, the Dutchman is still only 15th in points. He was 18th in points prior to this streak. Last year, VeeKay was sixth at Portland. He has never had five consecutive top ten finishes in his IndyCar career. VeeKay has never finished worse than 14th in the championship in his first four IndyCar seasons. He is only seven points away from maintaining that fact.

The driver that is ahead of VeeKay in the championship has been in a good run of form in his own right. Marcus Armstrong has seen a good bump upward after a shaky mid-third of the season. Armstrong has three top ten finishes in the last four races. This includes his third top five finishes this season (fifth at Toronto) and his first career top ten finish on an oval (eighth at Gateway). 

Prior to this run, Armstrong had one top ten finish in his previous five starts and his average finish during that five-race stretch was 19.6. Armstrong was 19th in last year's Portland race, but the final result does not tell the entire story. An unsecured right rear tire on his final pit stop cost Armstrong what was setting up to be a top ten finish. Armstrong's first full season in IndyCar has had highs and lows. Compared to last year, he is a little off his 2023 output. Last year, Armstrong averaged 17.833 points per start over 12 races. Through 13 races this year, his average is 17.4615 points per start. To at least meet his 2023 form, Armstrong will need to score 77 points over the final three races.

Speaking of top ten finishes, Sting Ray Robb is coming off the first top ten finish in his IndyCar career. Robb was ninth at Gateway. Prior to Gateway, Robb has only one top fifteen finish this season. His career best finish prior to Gateway was 12th. Robb's first career top ten finish came in the 30th start of his career. Only Marco Greco (42) and A.J. Foyt IV (32) took more starts to get a first career top ten finish.

This has been a better season for Robb. He is 20th in the championship with 144 points. By averaging 11.076 points per start through the first 13 races, Robb is averaging 2.429 more points per start than last year. He was 23rd at Portland last year, finishing one lap down. Robb has finished inside the top twenty of the last three races on permanent road courses.

Final Road Course of the Season

Street courses are behind us and once we are through Portland only oval races will remain. This is the first time the IndyCar season is ending on an oval since 2014, and it is the first time an IndyCar season is ending with consecutive oval races since the 2010 season ended with four oval races. 

When it comes to road courses, the championship leader has been the best. Álex Palou leads all drivers with 216 points on permanent road courses this season. Along with two victories, Palou has not finished worse than fifth on a road course this season. Due to Palou's success, only two other drivers could end this season with the most points scored on road courses, and one of those drivers will be mathematically eliminated once Palou starts the Portland race.

Will Power is 39 points behind Palou in road course points and Scott McLaughlin is 50 points back. McLaughlin will be eliminated once Palou starts at Portland. If Palou starts at Portland, the only way Power can end up on top is with a victory. Power finished on the podium in the first three road course races this season, including a victory at Road America, and his worst road course finish this season is 11th. McLaughlin won the first road course race of the season at Barber Motorsports Park and he also has three podium finishes on road courses this year.

Colton Herta has scored 152 points on road courses this season with his worst finish being eighth. Herta is 27 points ahead of his Andretti Global teammate Kyle Kirkwood. Kirkwood's worst finished on a permanent road course is 11th. Andretti Global has not won on a permanent road course since Alexander Rossi won the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in July 30, 2022.

Christian Lundgaard is a point behind Kirkwood on 124 road course points and Patricio O'Ward, the winner of the most recent road course race at Mid-Ohio, has 123 points from the first five permanent road course races. Lundgaard has three top ten finishes on road courses this season, and O'Ward has three consecutive top ten finishes on road courses.

Alexander Rossi has 106 points from the first five road course races, one more than Felix Rosenqvist, and four more than Romain Grosjean, who rounds out the top ten. Since his 2022 victory on the IMS road course, Rossi has only one top five finish on a permanent road course other than the IMS road course. He was third at Laguna Seca earlier this season. After opening the season with top ten finishes in the first two road course races, Rosenqvist has finished outside the top ten in the last three road course races. Grosjean has three top ten finishes on road courses this year with his best result being fourth at Laguna Seca.

Marcus Ericsson has 98 points from road course races this season. Scott Dixon scored the most points on street courses this season, but Dixon has only 90 points from the road course races this season. He has finished outside the top twenty in two of the last three road course races.

Road to Indy

For the Road to Indy, this is a championship weekend for two of the three series, and for Indy Lights, the championship could be essentially clinched this weekend.

Louis Foster won at Gateway Motorsports Park last week and Foster now has six victories this season with eight consecutive top ten finishes. Foster is 91 points clear of Jacob Abel with 162 points left on the table. If Foster leaves this weekend with a championship lead of 108 points or more, he will have clinched the Indy Lights championship with two races to spare. Abel is the only other driver with multiple victories this season, but he cannot match Foster's six victories, guaranteeing Foster the tiebreaker. 

Caio Collet is the only other driver mathematically alive for the championship. Collet is 147 points behind Foster. Collet is on an island of his own, 56 points behind Abel in second but 62 points ahead of Callum Hedge in fourth. Hedge has three consecutive top five finishes. 

It is rather tight for fifth in the championship. Jamie Chadwick holds it on 251 points, but she has not finished in the top five in the last five races. Chadwick is three points ahead of Salvaro de Alba and Reece Gold. James Roe, Jr. is nine points behind Chadwick. 

Christian Bogle is up to ninth on 230 points, two points ahead of Myles Rowe, who has finished 17th or worse in four consecutive races. Yuven Sundaramoorthy and Jonathan Browne are tied on 219 points while Bryce Aron has 209 points. Josh Pierson sits n 204 points.

Indy Lights will hold a 35-lap race at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday August 25.

For USF Pro 2000, the season ends with a doubleheader, and three drivers are alive for the championship. 

Lochie Hughes enters on 354 points, 35 points ahead of Jace Denmark and 63 points ahead of Nikita Johnson. 

Hughes has five victories and ten podium finishes this season through 16 races. Denmark has yet to win this season, but he has nine podium finishes, including five consecutive entering Portland. Johnson has won six times this season, but in the last eight races, Johnson's average finish is 9.25 with four finishes outside the top ten. 

Hughes will secure the championship if he scores at least 31 points over the two races this weekend. 

USF Pro 2000 will race at 8:25 p.m. ET on Friday August 23 and 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday August 24. Both races are scheduled for 30 laps.

U.S. F2000 ends its 2024 season with a triple-header, and it is a four-way fight for the title with four American drivers. 

Max Garcia enters the finale with 346 points. Garcia won four races of the season and he has seven podium finishes with 12 top five finishes. Garcia is 35 points ahead of Sam Corry. Corry has won twice and stood on the podium seven times. 

Max Taylor has seven consecutive top five finishes entering Portland, but Taylor is 42 points off the championship lead. Taylor has four victories, but he has finished 15th or worse in three races this season. Evagoras Papasavvas has 288 points with two victories and eight podium finishes this season, but Papasavvas has four results outside the top ten.

Race one for U.S. F2000 will be at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday August 23. Race two will occur at 1:20 p.m. ET on Saturday August 24 with the final race of the season occurring later that evening at 9:05 p.m. ET. All three races are scheduled for 25 laps.

Fast Facts

This will be the 11th IndyCar race to take place on August 25 and the first since Will Power won at Gateway in 2018. 

Will Power has won the last two races held on August 25. He won on August 25, 2013 at Sonoma.

Since 2018, the average number of passes in a Portland race is 194.6 with a median of 178. The average number of passes for position is 142 with a median of 131. 

Last year's Portland race had 322 passes with 219 of those for position. None of the previous four Portland races broke 200 total passes nor 150 passes for position.

In three of the last five Portland races, at least one of the podium finishers has started outside the top ten.

In four of the last five Portland races, at least two top five finishers started outside the top ten. 

The average starting position for a Portland winner is 3.8965 with a median of second.

Eleven of 13 race winners this season have started inside the top five, but the fourth-place starting position has not produced any winners this season. 

Fourth starting position has not produced a winner in the last 21 races. The most recent victory for the fourth starting position was with Álex Palou at Mid-Ohio last year.

In 2023, the fourth starting position produced the winner in four of the first nine races, including winning three of the first four races.

Only twice has a Portland winner started fourth (Mario Andretti 1985, Michael Andretti 1991).

Last season, five of the final six races were won from outside a top five starting position, and three of the final four races were won from outside a top ten starting position. 

Twenty-four of 29 Portland races have been won from a top five starting position. 

The average number of lead changes in a Portland race is 6.172 with a median of six. 

Three of the five Portland races since it returned to the IndyCar schedule in 2018 have had exactly nine lead changes. 

The average number of cautions in a Portland race is 2.137 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 8.068 with a median of six.

Seven of the 14 cautions in the last five Portland races have been due to incidents in turn one or turn two. 

The last two Portland races have not had a caution on the opening lap.

There have been six caution-free races at Portland, but only one caution-free race in the last 21 Portland races. 

Predictions

Scott Dixon becomes the first driver to three victories this season, and he checks off another track in the process, but Álex Palou finishes in the top five and nobody really makes up any ground on Palou in the championship. Christian Lundgaard will have his best result since his podium on the IMS road course in May. Felix Rosenqvist will get his second consecutive top ten finish. Rinus VeeKay will finish outside the top ten. The total number of passes will rank either fourth or fifth among Portland races since 2018. Jüri Vips will not be the worst Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing finisher. There will be at least one caution for an incident in turns one and two. Sleeper: Christian Lundgaard.

Let's Look at the League - August 2024

We are looking over the hypothetical league structure of IndyCar now because this upcoming weekend at Portland would be a pivotal point in the season. It would essentially be moving week. It is the final weekend of the regular season for the top league. Playoff spots and relegation are on the line. 

In League Two, we know two of the promoted teams for 2025, but Portland would be the final matchup in the group stage for the second phase of the season, which determines the final promotion spot. 

There is no more time to waste. Where do we stand before this crucial weekend?

League One:

Conference 1 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)

1. #10 Ganassi 11-2

Mid-Ohio: WIN (2nd to #28's 5th) 

Iowa I: LOSS (23rd to #6's 12th)

Iowa II: WIN (2nd to #26's 5th)

Toronto: WIN (3rd to #45's 7th)

Gateway: LOSS (4th to #2's 1st)

2. #26 Andretti 9-4 

Mid-Ohio: WIN (4th to #2's 25th)

Iowa I: LOSS (11th to #5's 2nd)

Iowa II: LOSS (5th to #10's 2nd)

Toronto: WIN (1st to #10's 5th)

Gateway: WIN (5th to #28's 24th)

3. #5 McLaren 7-6

Mid-Ohio: WIN (1st to #11's 17th)

Iowa I: WIN (2nd to #26's 11th)

Iowa II: WIN (6th to #6's 14th)

Toronto: LOSS (17th to #2's 11th)

Gateway: LOSS (26th to #45's 15th)

4. #6 McLaren 6-7 

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (20th to #45's 7th)

Iowa I: WIN (12th to #10's 23rd)

Iowa II: LOSS (14th to #5's 6th)

Toronto: LOSS (21st to #28's 18th)

Gateway: WIN (7th to #11's 8th)

5. #2 Penske 6-7

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (25th to #26's 4th)

Iowa I: WIN (3rd to #11's 10th)

Iowa II: WIN (7th to #28's 23rd)

Toronto: WIN (11th to #5's 17th)

Gateway: WIN (1st to #10's 4th)

6. #45 RLLR 5-8

Mid-Ohio: WIN (7th to #6's 20th)

Iowa I: LOSS (22nd to #28's 9th)

Iowa II: WIN (17th to #11's 19th)

Toronto: LOSS (7th to #10's 3rd)

Gateway: WIN (15th to #5's 26th)

7. #28 Andretti 5-8

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (5th to #10's 2nd)

Iowa I: WIN (9th to #45's 22nd)

Iowa II: LOSS (23rd to #2's 7th)

Toronto: WIN (18th to #6's 21st)

Gateway: LOSS (24th to #26's 5th)

8. #11 Ganassi 3-10

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (17th to #5's 1st)

Iowa I: LOSS (10th to #2's 3rd)

Iowa II: LOSS (19th to #45's 17th)

Toronto: LOSS (5th to #26's 1st)

Gateway: LOSS (8th to #6's 7th)

Week 14 Matchups:

#10 Ganassi vs. #5 McLaren
#2 Penske vs. #45 RLLR
#26 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
#28 Andretti vs. #11 Ganassi

Conference 1 Breakdown:

This is the most settled of the two conferences, and things took a turn in the final laps at Gateway. 

Álex Palou might have lost to Josef Newgarden, but Palou clinched the one-seed in this conference. Colton Herta has the #26 Andretti entry locked into second. Then it appears everyone third through seventh could either make the playoffs or miss the playoffs, and unfortunately, the relegation spot has been decided. 

Starting at the bottom, the #11 Ganassi entry will be relegated. Marcus Armstrong has lost seven consecutive matchups. He went from being 3-3 after the first six weeks and coming off his first career podium finish to 3-10. There are some harsh ones in here, and those have been more recent. 

Armstrong was 19th in the second Iowa race, not great, but he only lost by two spots to Christian Lundgaard. At Toronto, Armstrong was fifth but lost to Herta, who won the race. At Gateway, Armstrong lost by a spot, finishing eighth while Nolan Siegel was seventh, and for most of that race Armstrong was ahead of Siegel. If Armstrong had won at Gateway, he would have at least still been alive for staying up. Instead, he is gone... which might have been moot because Ganassi is possibly downsizing to three cars and the #11 entry was going away anyway, but we can get into that mess in the offseason. 

As for the playoff spots, there are a few combinations of who could make it.

All Patricio O'Ward must do is win his matchup. The same is true for Nolan Siegel in the #6 McLaren entry as the #6 McLaren holds the tiebreaker over Josef Newgarden in the #2 Penske. The #6 McLaren beat Newgarden in both head-to-head matchups, first at St. Petersburg after Newgarden was disqualified and then at Laguna Seca.

Christian Lundgaard and Marcus Ericsson could both finish 6-8 while the #6 McLaren and the #2 Penske could also finish 6-8. Then we have a four-way tiebreaker to decide the final spot. We should cover all the pertinent tiebreakers here because they are likely to come into play.

The #5 McLaren owns the tiebreaker over the #6 McLaren (2-0 in both matchups).

The #6 McLaren owns the tiebreaker over the #2 Penske (2-0 in both matchups).

The #2 Penske owns the tiebreaker over the #5 McLaren (2-0 in both matchups).

Remember, the tiebreaker is head-to-head results, then most victories, then most second-place finishes, and so on until the tie is broken. 

In the case of a three-way tie, it would right now be the #5 McLaren and #2 Penske making it in that order. The #5 McLaren and the #2 Penske have each won two races. However, if Newgarden were to finish second at Portland, Newgarden would move ahead of O'Ward for third as they would be level on victories and second-place finishes with Newgarden getting the edge with one third-place finish to O'Ward's zero.

It gets a little messier when factoring in the #45 RLLR and #28 Andretti entries. Here is how those two entries, the #6 McLaren and the #2 Penske stand on tiebreakers.

#6 McLaren

Owns tiebreaker over #2 Penske (2-0).

Loses tiebreaker to #45 RLLR (1-1, #45's best finish is third to #6's seventh).

Owns tiebreaker over #28 Andretti (2-0).

#2 Penske

Losses tiebreaker to #6 McLaren (0-2).

Owns tiebreaker over #45 RLLR (1-0, both meet in the final weekend at Portland, but the #2 Penske has locked this with two victories to at best the #45's one if the #45 wins at Portland).

Owns tiebreaker over #28 Andretti (1-1, #2's best finish is first in two races to #28's second).

#45 RLLR

Owns tiebreaker over #6 McLaren (1-1, #45's best finish is third to #6's seventh).

Losses tiebreaker to #2 Penske (0-1, both meet in the final weekend at Portland, but the #2 Penske has locked this with two victories to at best the #45's one if the #45 wins at Portland).

Losses tiebreaker to #28 Andretti (1-1, #28's best finish is second to #45's third).

#28 Andretti

Loses tiebreaker to #6 McLaren (0-2).

Loses tiebreaker to #2 Penske (1-1, #2's best finish is first in two races to #28's second).

Owns tiebreaker over #45 RLLR (1-1, #28's best finish is second to #45's third).

What happens if there is a three-way tie? 

We go off of head-to-head matchups involving the three teams. For there to be any three-way tie, both the #6 McLaren and #2 Penske must lose, and if Newgarden loses, then Lundgaard and the #45 RLLR will be involved in the tiebreaker.

In that case, we would see it play out like this...

#6 McLaren 3-1

#45 RLLR 2-2

#2 Penske 1-3

The #6 McLaren gets the final playoff spot, the #45 RLLR would be fifth and get the safety spot for the 2025 season while the #2 Penske would be in the relegation playoff. 

What happens if there is a four-way tie with the #28 Andretti winning the final weekend of the season while the #6 McLaren and #2 Penske both lose? Again, it would be head-to-head involving the tied teams.

#6 McLaren 5-1

#45 RLLR 3-3

#2 Penske 2-4

#28 Andretti 2-4

It plays out the same with a three-way tie. The #6 McLaren is in, the #45 RLLR is safe for 2025 and the #2 Penske and #27 Andretti are in the relegation playoff. There is technically no way either the #45 RLLR or #28 Andretti can make the playoffs. They can finish tied for fourth but never get fourth on tiebreaker.

Consider Conference One thoroughly covered, and this is the most settled of the two conferences!

Conference 2 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)

1. #3 Penske 9-4

Mid-Ohio: WIN (3rd to #77's 23rd)

Iowa I: WIN (1st to #7's 8th)

Iowa II: WIN (3rd to #27's 16th)

Toronto: LOSS (16th to #8's 13th)

Gateway: WIN (2nd to #12's 19th)

2. #9 Ganassi 8-5

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (27th to #15's 18th)

Iowa I: WIN (4th to #27's 7th)

Iowa II: WIN (4th to #7's 15th)

Toronto: WIN (3rd to #12's 12th)

Gateway: LOSS (11th to #8's 3rd)

3. #27 Andretti 8-5

Mid-Ohio: WIN (8th to #12's 11th)

Iowa I: LOSS (7th to #9's 4th)

Iowa II: LOSS (16th to #3's 3rd)

Toronto: WIN (2nd to #15's 10th)

Gateway: LOSS (22nd to #77's 16th)

4. #12 Penske 7-6

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (11th to #27's 8th)

Iowa I: LOSS (18th to #15's 16th)

Iowa II: WIN (1st to #77's 10th)

Toronto: LOSS (12th to #9's 3rd)

Gateway: LOSS (19th to #3's 2nd)

5. #7 McLaren 6-7

Mid-Ohio: WIN (6th to #8's 15th)

Iowa I: LOSS (8th to #3's 1st)

Iowa II: LOSS (15th to #9's 4th)

Toronto: LOSS (14th to #77's 9th)

Gateway: WIN (18th to 23rd)

6. #15 RLLR 5-8

Mid-Ohio: WIN (18th to #9's 27th)

Iowa I: WIN (16th to #12's 18th)

Iowa II: WIN (8th to #8's 12th)

Toronto: LOSS (10th to #27's 2nd)

Gateway: LOSS (23rd to #7's 18th)

7. #77 JHR 5-8

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (23rd to #3's 3rd)

Iowa I: LOSS (24th to #8's 21st)

Iowa II: LOSS (10th to #12's 1st)

Toronto: WIN (9th to #7's 14th)

Gateway: WIN (16th to #27's 22nd)

8. #8 Ganassi 4-9

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (15th to #7's 6th)

Iowa I: WIN (21st to #77's 24th)

Iowa II: LOSS (12th to #15's 8th)

Toronto: WIN (13th to #3's 16th)

Gateway: WIN (3rd to #9's 11th)

Week 14 Matchups:

#9 Ganassi vs. #3 Penske
#8 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske
#7 McLaren vs. #27 Andretti
#15 RLLR vs. #77 JHR

Conference 2 Breakdown:

Everything appears up for grabs in Conference Two.

First seed. 

The final playoff spot.

Fifth and safety for next season.

The relegation playoffs. 

Relegation.

Everyone is playing for something. There is so much at stake it is too much to cover here. Let's cover what is easiest.

The #3 Penske is locked in the playoffs. The #9 Penske and #27 Andretti are locked in the playoffs. It is just a matter of sending for them. Any of those three could be the #1-seed. How do those tiebreakers look?

#1-Seed Picture

If Scott McLaughlin wins at Portland over Scott Dixon, the #3 Penske clinches the one-seed. 

If Dixon wins at Portland and Kyle Kirkwood loses, the #3 Penske clinches the one-seed as the #3 Penske and #9 Ganassi would be 1-1 head-to-head, tied with two victories, but McLaughlin has a runner-up finish while Dixon does not and even if Dixon finishes second at Portland, McLaughlin has three third-place finishes to Dixon's two. 

Can anyone other than the #3 Penske get the #1-seed?

Let's say Dixon wins and Kirkwood wins, that leads to a three-way tie at 9-5. How do those three shake out head-to-head?

#3 Penske 3-1

#9 Ganassi 2-2

#27 Andretti 1-3

The #3 Penske actually has locked up the one-seed. McLaughlin owns every tie-breaking scenario. Dixon cannot flip the tiebreaker against him. McLaughlin is already 2-0 against Kirkwood. Dixon and Kirkwood split their matchups, but Dixon has two victories to Kirkwood's zero.

What actually looks to be wide-open is pretty much decided. 

The #3 Penske is the #1-seed even if McLaughlin loses to Dixon and even if there is a three-way tie. 

A Dixon loss combined with a Kirkwood win is the only way Kirkwood can get the #2-seed.

If you want to entertain what happens if any of Dixon, Kirkwood and Will Power finishing tied at 8-6...

Dixon went 2-0 against Power this year.

Power and Kirkwood split their matchups, but Power has two victories. 

If there is a three-way tie, Dixon would be on top ahead of Power and Kirkwood.

Power has Alexander Rossi to worry about for the final playoff spot as Power is 7-6 and the #7 McLaren is 6-7, except Power doesn't need to worry. Power and Rossi split their head-to-head matchups and Power has two victories to Rossi's none. The playoff spots are actually set in Conference Two. It is actually all about seeding. 

Maybe the tiebreakers need a tweak. It is kind of anti-climatic if there is no way someone can advance even if beating their many rival for a playoff spot on the final weekend. It makes sense to want the best drivers in the playoffs and consider who won races, but it does take away some of the drama of a team fighting from behind. We can think about that during the offseason. 

Playoff spots aside, the #7 McLaren is fighting to hold onto fifth and avoid the relegation playoff. Meanwhile, the #15 RLLR and #77 JHR could be relegated while the #8 Ganassi is fighting for safety. At least, that is how it looks on paper. I am discovering how these tiebreakers shake out as I go along. It could be just as anti-climatic as above and it could be a case where the #8 Ganassi will be relegated no matter what. We are discovering together. Let's see if that is the case.

No matter what, one of the #15 RLLR or the #77 JHR will finish 5-9. Graham Rahal faces Romain Grosjean at Portland. If Linus Lundqvist wins in the #8 Ganassi, we will have a tie for seventh and avoiding the automatic relegation position. What happens in either scenario?

Rahal beat Lundqvist in both their matchups. The #8 Ganassi is relegated in such a scenario.

Lundqvist beat Grosjean in both their matchups. The #77 JHR is relegated in such a scenario.

Lundqvist must do his half of the bargain, but he will also need to be the biggest Graham Rahal fan. 

As for fifth, there is a world where the #7 McLaren and either the #15 RLLR or the #77 JHR finish tied at 6-8.

The #7 McLaren went 2-0 over the #15 RLLR while the #7 McLaren and the #77 JHR split their matchups. The #7 McLaren's best finish is third to the #77 JHR's fourth. It is not over, but it heavily favors the #7 McLaren.

There is a little more drama in Conference Two compared to Conference One. Once Portland is over, the playoff picture will be clear and we will know how the bracket shakes out.

League Two (Top two automatically promoted)

1. #14 Foyt 8-2 

Mid-Ohio: WIN (10th to #41's 16th)

Iowa I: WIN (6th to #66's 26th)

Iowa II: BYE

2. #60 MSR 7-3 

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (14th to #66's 12th)

Iowa I: WIN (13th to #18's 25th)

Iowa II: LOSS (26th to #51's 24th)

3. #66 MSR 6-4 

Mid-Ohio: WIN (12th to #60's 14th)

Iowa I: LOSS (26th to #14's 6th)

Iowa II: WIN (13th to #18's 27th)

4. #21 ECR 6-4

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (19th to #51's 13th)

Iowa I: WIN (5th to #41's 15th)

Iowa II: WIN (9th to #4's 18th)

5. #4 Ganassi 5-5 

Mid-Ohio: WIN (21st to #30's 24th)

Iowa I: WIN (14th to #20's 20th)

Iowa II: LOSS (18th to #21's 9th)

6. #78 JHR 4-6

Mid-Ohio: WIN (22nd to #18's 26th)

Iowa I: BYE

Iowa II: LOSS (25th to #30's 20th)

7. #41 Foyt 4-6

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (16th to #14's 10th)

Iowa I: LOSS (15th to #21's 5th)

Iowa II: WIN (21st to #20's 22nd)

8. #18 DCR 4-6

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (26th to #78's 22nd)

Iowa I: LOSS (25th to #60's 13th)

Iowa II: LOSS (27th to #66's 13th)

9. #51 DCR 4-6

Mid-Ohio: WIN (13th to #21's 19th)

Iowa I: WIN (17th to #30's 19th)

Iowa II: WIN (24th to #60's 26th)

10. #20 ECR 3-7

Mid-Ohio: BYE

Iowa I: LOSS (20th to #4's 14th)

Iowa II: LOSS (22nd to #41's 21st)

11. #30 RLLR 3-7

Mid-Ohio: LOSS (24th to #4's 21st)

Iowa I: LOSS (19th to #51's 17th)

Iowa II: WIN (20th to #78's 25th)

League Two Breakdown:

The #14 Foyt entry and the #60 MSR entry locked up the automatic promotion spots. Those were the best two entries in League Two for the entire season. There was a small chance the #66 MSR could have snuck into one of the top two spots after David Malukas beat Felix Rosenqvist at Mid-Ohio, but it required the #66 MSR winning the final three weeks with the #60 MSR ending the regular season 0-3. That didn't happen and the #60 got the spot.

For the remaining nine teams, the second phase of the season was in play, and the bottom of League Two would be excluded as there are only eight spots in the second phase. There was a tie at the bottom between the #20 ECR entry and the #30 RLLR entry, but the #20 ECR beat the #30 RLLR head-to-head. It was at Laguna Seca and Christian Rasmussen finished 13th while Pietro Fittipaldi finished 14th. 

Sometimes, it is that close. The eight remaining teams were allocated into two groups for a single round robin over three race weekends. The top two from each group will enter the promotion playoff over the two Milwaukee races. We are through two of three matchups in the group stage. How do things look?

League Two Second Phase (Through Two Matchups. Top two from each group moves to promotion playoffs)

Group A

1. #41 Foyt 2-0

Toronto: WIN (25th to #78's 26th)

Gateway: WIN (9th to #66's 21st)

Portland: vs. #20 ECR

2. #66 MSR 1-1

Toronto: WIN (6th to #20's 27th)

Gateway: LOSS (21st to #41's 9th)

Portland: vs. #78 JHR

3. #78 JHR 1-1

Toronto: LOSS (26th to #41's 25th)

Gateway: WIN (13th to #20's 17th)

Portland: vs. #66 MSR

4. #20 ECR 0-2

Toronto: LOSS (27th to #66's 6th)

Gateway: LOSS (17th to #78's 13th)

Portland: vs. #41 Foyt

Group B

1. #21 ECR 2-0

Toronto: WIN (8th to #51's 15th)

Gateway: WIN (10th to #18's 20th)

Portland: vs. #4 CGR

2. #4 CGR 2-0

Toronto: WIN (22nd to #18's 24th)

Gateway: WIN (25th to #51's 27th)

Portland: vs. #21 ECR

3. #18 DCR 0-2

Toronto: LOSS (24th to #4's 22nd)

Gateway: LOSS (20th to #21's 10th)

Portland: vs. #51 DCR

4. #51 DCR 0-2

Toronto: LOSS (15th to #21's 8th)

Gateway: LOSS (27th to #4's 25th)

Portland: vs. #18 DCR

League Two Phase Two Breakdown:

Sting Ray Robb picked the right time to get hot, or fortunate enough that a 25th at Toronto would get him a head-to-head victory. The #41 Foyt entry has secured one of the spots in the promotion playoff, and the top spot of Group A, as Robb owns the tiebreaker against either of the other two entries that could advance from Group A. 

The final spot from Group A will come down to the #66 MSR and the #78 JHR entry. The #20 ECR entry is out of it at 0-2.

It will be David Malukas vs. Conor Daly, two drivers that did not start in these respective entries, determining who remains alive for a League One spot in 2025.

Group B is decided. Both Dale Coyne Racing entries lost their first two matchups while the #21 ECR and #4 Ganassi entries enter the final matchup tied at 2-0 and facing each other to determine seeding with the loser guaranteed to be facing Sting Ray Robb and the #41 Foyt entry in the semifinal in the first Milwaukee race.

At least this is much more straightforward than what we saw in the League One picture. Consider yourself thoroughly prepared and informed for something that does not exist.

Musings From the Weekend: Why Do We Care About the Leader Circle Anymore?

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

NASCAR took away playoff eligibility from Austin Dillon after how he won the Richmond race. Dillon appealed the decision and we will find out Wednesday how that will play out. It rained in Michigan, meaning the Cup race will finish this afternoon. Elsewhere, it was a good weekend for a pair of brothers. It was a good weekend for Corvette. Rain was expected but did not show in Austria. Josef Newgarden won and ticked some people off at Gateway, but something else has been on my mind regarding IndyCar, and we received some clarity on the topic prior to Saturday night's race.

Why Do We Care About the Leader Circle Anymore?

I have actually been asking myself this question for a few months now as we have awaited IndyCar finalizing any charter agreement with the teams. 

If IndyCar is introducing a charter system and expanding it to cover 25 teams, why do we care about the Leader Circle program and the competition for those spots? Aren't all these teams going to be covered in the charter agreement anyway? 

In a little bit of a surprise, we caught the introduction to the charter proposal IndyCar sent to the teams on Saturday at Gateway Motorsports Park, and it partially answered this question. Just because there will be a charter system does not mean the Leader Circle program will go away. 

Confirmed was the limit of three charters per organization. That was expected. However, while there will be 25 charters on offer, 22 Leader Circle spots will still be awarded each season. Only the charter entries will be eligible for the Leader Circle spots, meaning the non-charter teams are not eligible no matter how well they finish in the championship. All 25 charter entries would be locked into every race, except the Indianapolis 500, with every race other than the Indianapolis 500 capped at 27 starters. 

Other than learning the Leader Circle program will stick around and work in congruency with the charter system, we didn't really learn anything from this reveal. Except for a provision that would limit a charter entry from running more than three drivers in a single season. There were no surprises, but I ask again, why do we care about the Leader Circle anymore? 

The entire point of the charter system is to give teams value in competing full-time in the NTT IndyCar Series. The hope is a team owns one of these charters to compete and then one day if the team needs to sell everything or just needs to sell one charter and downsize to a two-car team or one-car team, it can get $10 million, $20 million, $50 million for that spot on the grid. All that we know about the Leader Circle program is it will remain a $1 million base payment each team receives for that season. 

If the hopes are to emulate NASCAR where the price for charters shot through the roof, a $1 million base payment isn't really all that meaningful. It will be something to compete for, but if the charters become something worth ten times or more what the Leader Circle is paying out, does it really matter if you crack the top 22 or not? 

It appears the charter system isn't even "Leader Circle+" for the teams. Other than essentially owning a spot on the grid, I am not sure what having a charter adds to a team. My assumption through this process was all the charter teams would be Leader Circle teams. They would all receive a base payment and perhaps that payment would go up and see greater revenue shared. However, it sounds like nothing is changing. It will still be 22 teams getting a pay day while three teams do not but are still a part of the club. 

I do not understand that logic, nor do I understand how IndyCar could not find $3 million extra to cover all the charter teams especially after the series signed a supposed historic media deal with Fox for the 2025 season. Apparently the teams are pleased though, and it doesn't sound like there will much if any pushback for more and a second proposal. 

There are no guarantees the charters will become worth anything. There must be a demand for them to increase in value. Their introduction could not have come at a better time as European junior series powerhouse Prema has plans to enter IndyCar for the 2025 season. Unfortunately for Prema, it picked the wrong time to be a new team entering IndyCar. Despite all of its investment into joining the series, Prema will not be offered a charter as those offers are only eligible to 2023 participants. 

Without a charter, Prema's two-car operation will face possibly failing to qualify for every race. The good news is while there are only two spots open for non-charter entries, Chip Ganassi Racing is reportedly going to contract two cars, its two non-Leader Circle teams, and that would open the door for Prema's two entries to be the 26th and 27th cars at every round. This is of course assuming no teams run additional one-off entries, like Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will this weekend at Portland with a fourth entry for Jüri Vips. 

Prema will have high incentive to purchase one, if not two, charters. It will be up to the existing IndyCar teams to set the price for what will be the only chance to set the market value. Does a team sense Prema's desperation and set the price high? Does a team not understand how much these are worth and shoot too low? Does the lack of any additional teams interested in joining the series outside of Prema lead to a standstill and Prema realizing it is better off not buying a charter and spending more than it must to compete because until a 28th and 29th car shows, Prema will be in all the races? Should IndyCar have extended an olive branch to Prema and given it one charter while sacrificing one from an existing team? 

The answer to the last question is yes.

None of this really matters until people start knocking on team doors in hopes of joining the series. IndyCar saw some buzz a few years ago when Meyer Shank Racing and Juncos Hollinger Racing joined the series. Prior to that, Carlin joined. Now Prema is here, but there must be constant interest and value seen in the series for charters to do what is hoped for. If no one is knocking for the next five years and viewership, attendance and every other important metric does not increase, neither will the charter and these teams will not be making anything on a sale. 

IndyCar has done something but we do not know whether that something will be all that meaningful. On the paper that has been presented, it does not appear much has changed from how business has been done now. If nothing is changing from how things are done now, why should we think participating in the series has become anymore valuable?

There is a chance there will be more involved than we have seen so far, but nothing from this charter proposal is all that revolutionary and could see the teams benefit mightily. It feels like more of the same and hopes of introducing something new in how spots on the grid are allocated will add value to participating in the series and in turn give the teams something substantial that can be sold on when someone new wants to join the series. 

It feels like a lot of sizzle but no steak. There is hope it will lead to something meaningful, but more must be done than guaranteeing spots on a grid where already no cars miss the races and viewership is lucky to break one million people per race. For this to produce anything valuable to the teams, IndyCar must increase value in the series, something it has struggled to do ever since it debuted as the Indy Racing League 28 years ago. 

Let's just run out a hypothetical where a two-car team wants to sell both its charters for $15 million apiece. It does not look all that appealing to spend $30 million to compete for a grand total of $2 million in Leader Circle money, which isn't even guaranteed and must be earned by finishing in the top 22 out of 25 cars, while struggling to sell sponsors on a series with low viewership that lacks any cultural relevance.

I don't know if there is a better way to illustrate the potential shortcomings of this system than that. IndyCar can introduce this system as the way of doing business moving forward, but it must also work to increase payment to the teams and value in the series otherwise none of this matters and the teams will not see any windfall. It looks great on paper, but it must work in reality to have any reason to celebrate. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Josef Newgarden, but did you know...

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix and sprint race. Celestino Vietti won the Moto2 race, his first victory since last year's Austrian Grand Prix. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his seventh victory of the season. Óscar Gutiérrez and Héctor Garzó split the MotoE races.

Louis Foster won the Indy Lights race from Gateway, his sixth victory of the season.

Justin Allgaier won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Michigan.

Nick Percat and Cam Waters split the Supercars races from Symmons Plains.

Kelvin van der Linde and Sheldon van der Linde split the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from the Nürburgring.

The #63 DXDT Racing Corvette of Tommy Milner and Alec Udell swept the GT World Challenge America races from Road America. The #97 Random Vandals Racing BMW of Kevin Boehm and Kenton Koch swept the GT4 America races. Justin Rothberg and James Sofronas split the GT America races.

Coming Up This Weekend

IndyCar's final road course race of the season from Portland.

Formula One returns from summer break at Zandvoort.

NASCAR is in Daytona.

IMSA has a GT-only show at Virginia International Raceway.

The European Le Mans Series will be at Spa-Francorchamps.

GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup visits Magny-Cours.

First Impressions: Gateway 2024

1. What a strange race that was from Gateway Motorsports Park? But after weeks of consternation about IndyCar's return from Olympic break after a stretch of lackluster races in July, IndyCar had a race full of action, strategy, controversy, and Josef Newgarden pulled out a victory after a combination of all three.

For most of this race, Newgarden was the third of the three Team Penske cars, usually running in fourth as David Malukas had a strong race mixed in with the Penske trio, this was not an oval race Newgarden dominated. He more or less paced himself for the first two-thirds of this race. Once we got into the final third, Newgarden picked up his speed and starting pushing for more. It nearly cost him.

While battling Scott McLaughlin through lapped traffic, Newgarden walked up the racetrack in turn two and spun. In what was a flashback to last year when Newgarden threw the Gateway race away, it appeared he had repeated his same mistake. This time, Newgarden spun down the track, avoided the barrier and any other cars coming through and he was able to continue having only lost two spots. 

That was the action. Here comes the strategy. 

With the pits open under caution with 62 laps remaining, McLaughlin and Newgarden both stopped for what appeared to be their final times. Will Power and David Malukas stayed out. That 62 laps was on the cusp of making it, but with the caution laps it felt like it would be enough. Power and Malukas decided to run all-out before stopping about 20 laps after the restart. McLaughlin and Newgarden weren't even on the same page. 

McLaughlin went at ten-tenths while Newgarden saved. McLaughlin kept up with the top two while Newgarden paced himself. McLaughlin's team was set for a splash-and-go late in the race. Newgarden's team was set to save, but as Power and Malukas came in, Newgarden picked up the pace to close in on McLaughlin. As the laps wound down, it looked like both would need a splash, but it was unclear if or when that would happen. 

With 20 laps to go, Malukas spun after Power pinched him down in turn two, and that settled any debate over strategy. With McLaughlin and Newgarden as the only cars on the lead lap, they effectively had a free pit stop and could fall down to no worse than second. The pit crews would decide the running order to the finish and Newgarden's team got him out first.

Here comes the controversy. 

Coming to the restart with nine laps to go, Newgarden approached the front straightaway slowly. As the green lights flashed, the field compressed behind him and it saw Power hit from behind from Alexander Rossi, while Jack Harvey and others spun. The finger pointing immediately went to Newgarden for not maintaining his pace approaching the restart. 

After a red flag to clean up the mess, Newgarden fired off like a rocket on the subsequent restart. McLaughlin couldn't keep up. Newgarden took the victory with ease, but he had a season in a night in what has already been a chaotic year for the two-time champion. 

It wasn't Newgarden's greatest race, and that has nothing to do with the late restart shenanigans. After a season where Newgarden has thrown many races away, and he nearly did the same tonight, it felt like Newgarden was playing it cool until it got late and then he would show his pace. Last year, he led 98 laps before the three-stop versus four-stop split cost him. Instead of leading an abundance of laps, Newgarden focused on leading the right laps and he put himself in the best position to be leading late and at the checkered flag.

Even with this strategy, Newgarden looked to have tossed away another result when he spun off of turn two. He was desperate to stay with McLaughlin as they were going through traffic. Newgarden could have waited until they exited turn two to make moves. He would have lost ground to McLaughlin, but it would have been the wiser choice. It didn't cost him, but he was still toeing that line. 

As for the restart, it wasn't the worst we have ever seen. It was a subtle lift and not a hard start-stop that bunched the field. IndyCar has had these problems on restarts and the initial start for years. Pocono 2018 was a notable example. IndyCar has not done anything to clean it up and remove the gamesmanship. This isn't a new problem. IndyCar should have done something years ago. It hasn't. Will that change after tonight? Probably not, but we have another example and maybe it is time to do something different. 

Was it the dirtiest move in the world from Newgarden? Not really, but it did take out a handful of cars that were having good nights. No love lost when that happens especially if the driver seen at fault ends up in victory lane.

2. This will feel like one that got away for Scott McLaughlin. He had the best car all race. The race came down to the final pit stop. McLaughlin's crew didn't quite have enough to beat Newgarden's crew. It is still a good result, but it feels like it should have been more. 

The strategy was curious to pit with 62 laps to go and still plan on making one more pit stop. If that was the case, McLaughlin should have remained out and stopped with about 40 laps to go like Power and Malukas did. We will never know how this race would have played out without the Power/Malukas caution, but if you are planning on a splash-and-go, you likely should have stayed out and taken that final pit stop when you knew you were in the window. 

This still ended up in a second-place finish for McLaughlin, but that was questionable strategy at best.

3. Linus Lundqvist was screwed and then caught a break to finish on the podium. Lundqvist was running a conservative strategy to stretch fuel and make his final pit stop as soon as the window opened. The problem was the pace was so great that those on this strategy were not going to cycle to the lead while the likes of the Penske cars and Malukas made an extra stop. Those saving lost time, and Lundqvist bailed while Scott Dixon remained committed to running almost two seconds off pace. 

Lundqvist bailed and then had the cautions fall his way. He remained on the lead lap or at least within the wave around cars to remain in the conversation. In the closing laps, he was suddenly in a podium fight and overcame a block from Colton Herta to take third. 

This has not been a great season for Lundqvist. I am not sure tonight was a brilliant night for him, but when faced with a strategy that clearly was not going to work, the team called an audible and Lundqvist ended up finishing much better than had they stuck to their guns. All credit to the #8 Honda crew.

4. Due to Herta's block, which wasn't all that successful as Lundqvist still passed Herta despite the move, Herta earned himself a penalty of losing one position, so instead of finishing fourth, Colton Herta will be fifth and Álex Palou will be promoted to fourth, the last driver anyone needed to see earn a promotion. 

Palou is going to lock up the championship at Milwaukee. All he did tonight was avoid accidents. There were at least three incidents right near him that he missed. He snuck through the Power/Rossi restart contact. With Power out, Patricio O'Ward losing an engine early and Scott Dixon trapped off the lead lap due to his strategy, this was a night where Palou was not going to lose much. His greatest championship threat at the finish was Herta and Herta gifted Palou an additional two points attempting a block. Palou didn't need any more help and he got it anyway. 

Palou doesn't have to try. He was set to finish seventh in this race and losing about nine or ten points, not a great night but one Palou could afford. Instead, he ended up gaining ground, and there might be four races remaining, but this one is effectively over and it will be over long before anyone arrives to Nashville.

5. Herta falls to fifth, but considering he started 25th, this was a great day. Herta had no issues driving into the top ten, but he didn't quite have the car to really take the fight to the front of the grid. I don't know if the car wasn't quite at its maximum potential after the qualifying accident. 

It appeared to be the best car before Herta hit the barrier in qualifying. It was still a good car and a good day for Herta though he likely wishes this weekend ended better. 

6. Felix Rosenqvist finally had a good day and finished sixth. Meyer Shank Racing looked strong this weekend. If Rosenqvist didn't have the grid penalty, he would have been starting on the front row instead of Malukas. I think Rosenqvist could have hung with the Penske cars had he started at the front. The Swede needed a good day. The pace has been there but the finishes have been lacked. That wasn't the case at Gateway.

7. The rest of the top ten was a mess but Nolan Siegel ended up getting his first career top ten finish in seventh. Siegel was on the same conservative strategy as Lundqvist and Dixon, but right when it looked like Siegel was in the thick of running with those guys, he sped entering the pit lane and had to serve a penalty. It shuffled him back, but Siegel was able to use the cautions to get back in position and he ended up pulling out a seventh-place finish. 

This was Siegel's best race so far. He was running with some top tier names and holding his own. He sped on pit entry but he didn't look out of his depths on track. He has some work to do but this was still a good night.

8. There is not much to say about Marcus Armstrong's race other than every time you looked up he was running somewhere between seventh and 12th. It didn't matter what strategy he was on, whether he was saving fuel or running all-out. Armstrong was at the bottom of the top ten the entire race. You must acknowledge he was at least comfortable out there for his first visit to Gateway. There are not many faults you can find in this night.

9. Sting Ray Robb ended up ninth, which illustrates how crazy this race was but also should highlight that Robb didn't do anything wrong. He wasn't lighting the world on fire but he didn't botch a pit stop, didn't hit a barrier, didn't catch a caution at the wrong time, Robb kept his nose clean, didn't do anything risky, and he finished ninth. When everyone else is spinning or making mistakes, do the simple things right and you can get your first career top ten finish. Good for Robb!

10. Rinus VeeKay keeps his top ten streak alive with a tenth-place result. I don't think VeeKay did anything remarkable all race. We didn't hear much praise for how VeeKay was running, kind of like Robb. As we covered, keep your nose clean and run a simple race and a good result will come while others stumble around you.

11. It is hard to fault Scott Dixon for the strategy run. From 19th starting position, running long and saving fuel is the most likely path to success in this race. For the first half of the race, it was not clear which strategy would be successful. Then as the race entered the final third, it became clear Dixon's strategy was not going to work. 

Only insult was added to injury when Dixon was caught out after the Newgarden spin because he had just made his pit stop and was caught two laps down instead of one. Then Power stayed out under that caution meaning Dixon could not get the wave around. That was essentially night over for him and he could only manage 11th, one lap down. 

12. Santino Ferrucci was on the same strategy as Lundqvist, Dixon and Siegel, and Ferrucci was caught speeding on pit lane on the same lap as Siegel. Then Ferrucci was caught out like Dixon when Newgarden spun after having just made a pit stop. Ferrucci recovered to 12th, and that might have been as good as it was going to get considering how this race was turning. The conservative strategy was not going to be the winning strategy. Without the cautions, I think Ferrucci finishes at best 12th. It likely would have been worse. 

13. Conor Daly was caught in what felt like a half-dozen incidents and he still finished 13th and only one lap down. This was a tough one because Daly was caught in an early incident with Juncos Hollinger Racing teammate Romain Grosjean and Andretti Global's Kyle Kirkwood. This trapped Grosjean and Daly off the lead lap for practically the entire race. 

JHR showed good pace in practice and qualifying. It would have been nice to see if that could have translated over to the race. Considering Daly ended up 13th after all the crap he went through, that seems like a good probably he and JHR would have run at least a little better than 13th without all the speed bumps along the way.

The same can be said for Grosjean. He ended up 16th, but he was ahead of Daly for a good percentage of this race. 

14. It is late and we are going to blow through many of these other teams. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had Pietro Fittipaldi in 14th, Christian Lundgaard in 15th and Graham Rahal lost an engine to place him 23rd. This is a RLLR oval special. No one running all the good, but the RLLR cars end up finishing around one another in the middle of the field.

Fittipaldi was ok. He needed a good race. Lundgaard was never competitive and benefitted from all the cars retiring ahead of him. Rahal looked good on the conservative strategy, but an engine failure is something out of his control and spoils what could have been promising but likely would have ended up as a 17th-place finish. 

15. Ed Carpenter was 17th despite being caught in a lap eight incident with Katherine Legge. He had nothing to lose. Didn't really gain much either. 

16. It might not have been entirely Alexander Rossi's fault, but when you run over the back of another car, some blame will fall on you, and Rossi needed to get a good finish. He was in the top five late and wound up 18th. This feels too common for him. He must see the checkered flag from that spot and he didn't. 

As for Patricio O'Ward, he lost an engine after 42 laps. It was out of his control. It puts the championship out of reach. Bummer. 

17. Will Power was livid after the Newgarden's penultimate restart. I get it. Power likely felt he was going to win this race after his final stop while McLaughlin and Newgarden were 50/50 on whether or not they could make or require a splash-and-go. I think McLaughlin had the best car but Power ran the best strategy in this race. To walk away with basically nothing, something that his 2024 season has been known for is painful. 

18. Jack Harvey will get lost in the Power/Rossi restart accident but he was 13th and in position for his best finish of the season when he was spun in the background of that accident. That was tough to watch because this was likely Harvey's best race of the season. It wasn't going to be much better than 12th but he was holding his own in the middle of the field. 

As mentioned early, Legge had an incident on lap eight with Ed Carpenter. Legge got a penalty for avoidable contact, which was moot because she was already out of the race. I don't know what she was doing flying into turn one like that so early in the race. 

19. Who is left? David Malukas was done rotten. Malukas was pinched in turn two. Power came down on him and Malukas had nowhere to go. This should have been a top five finish for Malukas, maybe a podium but at least a top five. 

It is curious that Power makes that move and there is no penalty. It wasn't the worst move in the world, but Malukas didn't change his line at all. It was getting late in the race and Power didn't want to lose any ground. As mad as Power is about Newgarden's restart, Power isn't entirely innocent after this race. 

20. Kyle Kirkwood was caught exiting turn two and ran into Daly while also collecting Grosjean. It damaged Kirkwood's car but he could continue, spending most of the race about 30 laps down. Marcus Ericsson had an engine issue cost him while on the conservative strategy. If wasn't for Herta, this would have been a wasted opportunity for Andretti Global. The team was quickest at the test and was fast in practice. The team needed at least one good result today, but it really should have had three. 

21. Kyffin Simpson spun in the middle of turns three and four and hit the way. That is it. That is what happened in Simpson's day. 

22. We must be pleased with how this Gateway race turned out. Everyone expected the worst after Iowa and how the first four races with the hybrid system played out. There were 676 total passes in this race, 254 of those were for position. Entering this race, the most passes a Gateway race has had since 2017 was 520, and the most passes for position was 217.

Gateway has never been a track with constant action, constant passing, drivers able to use the entire racetrack. We saw two functional lines for this entire race. It wasn't cars running side-by-side for six consecutive laps, but a car could commit to the outside of turns one and two and make it work. Or we could see a car get a better corner exit off the bottom of turn two and use that to take advantage of a car feathering the throttle exiting on the outside.

Cars could make a run and dive to the inside of turn three. This is what we hoped Gateway could be and now that the surface has aged a bit, it allows for a more lively race. 

It isn't identical, but we should be feeling a little bit better about Milwaukee in a few weeks. 

23. This was longer than I expected. At least Sunday is a day off of sorts, but Portland will be here in about eight days.

Morning Warm-Up: Gateway 2024

Scott McLaughlin won pole position for the Bommarito Automotive Group 500 with a two-lap average at 179.972 mph in qualifying on Friday afternoon at Gateway Motorsports Park. This is the second consecutive year McLaughlin has won pole position at Gateway and it is his fourth pole position of the season. The New Zealander has won pole position for three of four oval races this season. McLaughlin has been in the top five in all three of his Gateway appearances. He has six consecutive top ten finishes on ovals, five of which have been top five finishes. His worst finish over that span was sixth at the Indianapolis 500 this past May. This is the 13th race of the season and McLaughlin has finished no worse than fourth in the 13th race of the season every year of his IndyCar career. McLaughlin enters this race with 960 laps led in his career.

David Malukas starts in second position after running two laps at an average of 179.503 mph. This is Malukas' best career starting position. His previous best was third in the second Iowa race last year and at Mid-Ohio this past July. Malukas has finished on the podium in both his Gateway starts. He went from 12th to second in 2022 before going from sixth to third last year. His only other top five finish in his career was fourth at Texas last year.

Josef Newgarden has his best starting position since Detroit as Newgarden takes third. He ran two laps at 179.424 mph. This is the eighth time in nine Gateway appearances Newgarden is starting inside the top three. Newgarden has won four of eight Gateway starts and he has led at least 50 laps in five of his Gateway starts. He has won multiple oval races in four of the last five seasons.

Will Power makes it three Team Penske cars in the top four spots as Power had a two-lap average at 179.262 mph. Power has finished outside the top ten in three of the last four races. Power has finished inside the top ten of the 13th race of the season in ten consecutive seasons. He has won the 13th race of the season three times in his career. Power has led a lap in all eight of his Gateway starts.

Kyle Kirkwood has his first career top ten starting position on an oval, and it is also his first career top five starting position as Kirkwood moves up to fifth after Felix Rosenqvist had a nine-spot grid penalty for an engine change. Kirkwood was a little more than a mile-and-a-half per hour off McLaughlin's qualifying run. Kirkwood has finished seventh in two of the three oval races this season. Seventh is Kirkwood's best finish on an oval in his career. 

Romain Grosjean will start sixth, his second consecutive race starting in the top ten and it is his second-best start ever on an oval. Grosjean started fifth at Gateway last year. The Frenchman has finished in the top ten in the last two races. He has never had three consecutive top ten finishes in his IndyCar career. The only oval top ten finishes in his career were in both races of the 2022 Iowa doubleheader.

Marcus Ericsson takes seventh on the grid, his best starting spot on an oval this season. Ericsson has three consecutive top ten finishes at Gateway and has four top ten finishes in the last five Gateway races. He has finished outside the top ten in six of 12 races this season. Ericsson had finished outside the top ten in only six of the previous 22 races.

Patricio O'Ward winds up starting eighth after a trio of penalties for engine changes. It is O'Ward's worst starting position in his career at Gateway. O'Ward has finished in the top five in all five of his Gateway starts, which includes four podium finishes. His average finish is 2.6 at the 1.25-mile circuit. He has led a lap in every one of his Gateway starts, but he has not led more than 20 laps in the last three Gateway races.

In for the final five races of the season with Juncos Hollinger Racing, Conor Daly starts his deputy role with the team in ninth starting position. It is Daly's best starting position ever at Gateway in eight appearances. Daly is making his 111th start this weekend driving for 11th team in his IndyCar career. He has a top ten finish with seven teams in his career, including at the Indianapolis 500 earlier this year when he was tenth with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing.

Thanks to some grid penalties for engine changes, Marcus Armstrong ends up as the top Chip Ganassi Racing starter, and Armstrong is starting in the top ten. After opening the season starting in the top ten of the first four races, this is only the third time in the last nine races Armstrong has started in the top ten. He is coming off a fifth-place finish at Toronto. In the race following his previous two top five finishes, Armstrong has failed to finish the race. 

Felix Rosenqvist has a nine-spot grid penalty for taking on his fifth engine this season, dropping him to 11th starting spot after Rosenqvist qualified second at 179.796 mph. Rosenqvist has finished outside the top ten in six consecutive races and he has been outside the top twenty in his last two starts. This is his longest top ten drought since the final two races of 2021 and the first four races in 2022. He has finished outside the top ten in 21 of 28 oval starts in his career.

Rinus VeeKay misses out on the top ten but 12th is VeeKay's best starting position ever at Gateway. VeeKay enters with three consecutive top ten finishes for the first time in his career since a four-race streak in 2021 over the second Texas race, the two Indianapolis races and the first race of the Belle Isle doubleheader. Since finishing sixth and fourth in his first two Gateway starts in 2020, VeeKay has an average finish of 19.333 at the track. 

Starting in the lucky 13th starting position for the 13th race of the IndyCar season will be Alexander Rossi. Rossi is back after missing the Toronto round due to a broken thumb. It ended a 142-consecutive start streak, the 20th longest in IndyCar history. It will soon drop to 21st as Will Power will be making his 143rd consecutive start this weekend. Rossi has 49 top five finishes in his career. He is one start away from becoming the 34th driver with 50 top five finishes in a career.

Graham Rahal makes it an all-American row seven. In eight Gateway starts, Rahal has an average finish of 16.375 with his best finish being tenth on two occasions. This is only the fourth time in nine Gateway appearances he is starting inside the top fifteen. After finishing eighth and tenth in the last two races, Rahal is looking for three consecutive top ten results for the first time since the 2021 season when he finished sixth, fifth and seventh over Mid-Ohio, Nashville and the August Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race.

Pietro Fittipaldi is a spot behind his Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammate in 15th. This is Fittipaldi's best starting position since he started 15th at Detroit in June. He has finished 19th or worse in his last four races. His average finish in nine oval starts is 20.888. Fittipaldi's best oval finish was 11th at Gateway in 2018.

Álex Palou would have been starting seventh, but a nine-spot grid penalty for taking his fifth engine of the season has relegated Palou to 16th starting spot. Gateway is Palou's worst track in his IndyCar career. In five starts, his best finish is seventh and he has an average of 12.6. He has never led a lap at the track. Palou has led 953 laps in his first 76 starts. The good news is Scott Dixon won last year's Gateway race from 16th on the grid.

Santino Ferrucci starts 17th for a second consecutive race and for the fourth time this season. Ferrucci has finished in the top ten twice this season after starting 17th. He went from 17th to seventh at Barber Motorsports Park and from 17th to ninth at Laguna Seca. Ferrucci has 12 top ten finishes in 22 oval starts in his career. All five of his top five finishes in his career have come on ovals. 

Linus Lundqvist is to Ferrucci's outside on row nine. This is the ninth time this season Lundqvist is starting outside the top fifteen. Lundqvist has not finished in the top ten in nine consecutive races, four of which have been finishes outside the top twenty. He ran last year's Gateway race driving for Meyer Shank Racing and ended up 18th, but he also scored fastest lap in the race.

Scott Dixon is the second Chip Ganassi Racing entry with a nine-spot grid penalty, and this one drops Dixon from starting tenth to 19th. Dixon has won twice this year. He closed last season with three victories in the final four races. Dixon has not won at least three races in consecutive seasons since a four-year run from 2007 through 2010. 

Nolan Siegel will make his Gateway debut from 20th starting position. Siegel was sixth at Gateway last year in his only Indy Lights appearances at the track. He was second in the 2022 Indy Pro 2000 race at the track finishing behind Salvador de Alba.

Ed Carpenter starts 21st. Carpenter has finished outside the top fifteen in seven consecutive races, four of which have been results outside the top twenty. He has finished outside the top ten in 14 consecutive starts. His last top ten result was fifth in the 2021 Indianapolis 500.

Kyffin Simpson makes it three consecutive rookies on the outside covering rows nine through 11 as Simpson starts 22nd. Simpson is still looking for his first career top ten finish. He has finished outside the top twenty in six of the last eight races. The two races during that stretch where Simpson finished in the top twenty were the two Iowa races.

Christian Lundgaard is starting outside the top twenty for the third time in four oval races this season, as the Dane will occupy 23rd on the grid. In 13 career oval starts, Lundgaard's average finish is 17.846 with only one top ten finish, a tenth in the first race of the 2022 Iowa doubleheader. He has finished better than his starting position in all three oval races this season, but he only finished a spot better than his grid position in both Iowa races.

Sting Ray Robb takes 24th starting spot. This is the tenth time this season Robb is starting 24th or worse in a race. Robb scored his best finish on an oval last month at Iowa when he was 15th in the first race of the doubleheader. His average finish in eight oval starts is 22.75.

Colton Herta was on pace to start second after his first lap in qualifying was at 179.909 mph, but a spin in turn two on the second lap meant Herta would be relegated to 25th on the grid. Herta surpassed the 1,000 laps led milestone in his career during the Toronto race after leading 81 laps. He became the 42nd driver in IndyCar history to reach 1,000 laps led in a career. Herta enters this race tied for 37th all-time with Scott Sharp on 1,067 laps led.

Jack Harvey suffered a technical issue on his out lap for his qualifying run and he was unable to start a qualifying run let alone complete one. This means Harvey will start 26th for the Gateway race. Harvey has a 26-race top ten drought. He has not finished in the top ten in his last ten oval starts. His most recent top ten finish on an oval was tenth at Gateway in 2021. 

Katherine Legge's #51 Honda did not pass technical inspection prior to qualifying, preventing her from attempting a qualifying run. The #51 Honda also had a nine-spot grid penalty for changing to the team's fifth engine this season. This places Legge last on the grid in 27th. Legge will be making her fourth of the season. This will be the 44th start of her career.

USA's coverage of the Bommarito Automotive Group 500 from Gateway Motorsports Park begins at 6:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 260 laps.

Track Walk: Gateway 2024

The 13th round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season has the series back on an oval at Gateway Motorsports Park. After a 26-day break, IndyCar will run four races over the next 16 days, and the final five races will all take place in a 30-day span. Gateway is the first of four oval races in the five-race rush to the championship. It is the third of four Saturday races this season. With the number of races decreasing, so are the chances to win races and stay in the championship fight. Each race will see another missed chance and drivers eliminated from the title discussion. It has gotten late early and soon the history book will recognize the season that was 2024. 

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 17 with green flag scheduled for 6:15 p.m. ET.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Georgia Henneberry will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Saturday:

First Practice: 12:45 p.m. ET (60 minutes)

Qualifying: 4:20 p.m. ET 

High-line Practice: 6:45 p.m. ET (30 minutes)

Final Practice: 7:30 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 6:30 p.m. ET (260 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

The Championship Picture

For 18 drivers, a return to Gateway means a resumption of the championship battle. That is all that remains mathematically alive for the IndyCar championship entering this weekend's race, and though it is a complete long shot for some, others have a possible path to hoisting the Astor Cup in Nashville. 

Álex Palou remains the driver to beat. The defending champion has 411 points through 12 races as Palou has won twice, stood on the podium five times and has ten top five finishes. Those results have Palou 49 points ahead of Will Power, and Palou is in position to clinch a second consecutive championship with races to spare. 

Power is the next closest drivers thanks to a pair of victories as well, but Power’s five podium finishes are his only top five finishes. He has finished outside the top ten in four races, including in three of the last four. 

Scott Dixon is 53 points behind his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Palou. Though Dixon won two of the first six races, he had two results outside the top twenty cost him ground to Palou at the start of summer. Dixon has recovered with three consecutive top five finishes heading into Gateway, where Dixon is the defending race winner. 

Colton Herta’s victory at Toronto lifted the American into the championship conversation. After going over two years between victories, Herta is 57 points off Palou with four top five finishes in his last five starts. Herta’s six top five finishes this season are double what he had over the entire 2023 season and he has quadrupled his number of podium results. 

Patricio O’Ward rounds out the top five in the championship, but O’Ward is 71 points back with five races remaining. Like Power, O’Ward has two victories but O’Ward’s four podium finishes are his only top five results. O’Ward has also finished outside the top ten in four races, including a 17th in the most recent race at Toronto. 

Scott McLaughlin’s rollercoaster season has McLaughlin 83 points behind Palou. McLaughlin has won twice and he has four podium finishes in the last seven races, but he has finished outside the top fifteen in those other three races, and he has five results outside the top fifteen this season. 

Kyle Kirkwood has only one result outside the top fifteen this season, but with only one podium finish, second at Toronto nearly three weeks ago, and an average finish of 7.667, Kirkwood is 97 points off the championship lead. Kirkwood has ten top ten finishes this season, tied with Palou for the most in 2024. 

Josef Newgarden’s tumultuous 2024 season has been well covered, and Newgarden leads the pack of chasing drivers who will need a near flawless conclusion of this season to win the championship. Newgarden is 145 points back with 270 points remaining on the table. The Indianapolis 500 remains his only victory in 2024, and Newgarden’s season has been so bad he is only a point ahead of Alexander Rossi, who missed the most recent race at Toronto due to a broken thumb. 

Rossi has been cleared for Gateway, but Rossi returns now two years removed from his most recent victory on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course. He has one podium finish and three top five finishes in 2024. 

Santino Ferrucci holds tenth in the championship, 180 points behind Palou. Ferrucci has seven top ten finishes this season, already tied for his most in a single season. He has finished 11th and 20th in the last two races, but that is the only time he has gone consecutive races without a top ten result. 

Two points outside the championship top ten, and 182 points out of first, is Christian Lundgaard. Through 12 races last year, Lundgaard had a victory, three top five finishes and seven top ten results. This year, the Dane has zero victories, one top five (a third on the IMS road course) and five top ten finishes. 

Marcus Ericsson and Félix Rosenqvist are the next two drivers in the championship, 189 points and 190 points back respectively. Marcus Armstrong is 208 points behind his teammate with Rinus VeeKay a further two points off Palou. Romain Grojsean is two points behind VeeKay while Graham Rahal is two points behind Grosjean. 

The final driver mathematically eligible for the championship is Linus Lundqvist in 18th. Lundqvist trails Palou by 238 points with 270 points left on the table. To remain eligible into Portland, a driver must be within 216 points after Gateway. 

Oval Reset

Since returning to the IndyCar schedule in 2017, Gateway had been the final oval race on every calendar until this year. Instead of hosting the final oval race, Gateway is the fourth of seven oval races on the 2024 calendar. A Milwaukee doubleheader and the season finale from Nashville Superspeedway will be the final oval races this season.

Instead of looking at who will be the top oval driver once we have completed this Gateway race, it is effectively the midway point in the oval season and a chance to reset before the second half takes place.

The reset is Team Penske is in control.

Three oval races have seen three different Team Penske drivers claim victories. Josef Newgarden won the Indianapolis 500 for the second consecutive year while Scott McLaughlin and Will Power split the Iowa doubleheader. McLaughlin and Newgarden are first and second in oval points with 133 points and 122 points respectively.

Team Penske should feel confident heading into Gateway as the organization has won six of the last seven oval races and nine of 15 oval races held since the 2021 season. Gateway has been a place Penske has dominated with five victories in the eight races since the 1.25-mile oval returned to the schedule.

Newgarden is the all-time leader in Gateway victories, responsible for four of those five Penske victories since 2017. Prior to last year's race, Newgarden had won three consecutive times at the circuit. After not winning either Iowa race, this is the first time Newgarden has gone consecutive oval races without a victory since the first three oval races of the 2021 IndyCar season.

While Penske is on top, Patricio O'Ward has been respectable with a pair of runner-up finishes and a sixth. O'Ward has 114 points on ovals, 14 points more than Scott Dixon, who has finished third, fourth and fourth in the three oval events this season.

Álex Palou, Alexander Rossi and Rinus VeeKay are all tied with 81 points from oval races this season. Palou has a pair of top five finishes on ovals, including a runner-up finish in the second Iowa race while Rossi has a pair of top ten finishes. VeeKay has finished in the top ten in all three oval races this season. All three of those drivers are a point ahead of Power, who finished 24th and 18th in the first two oval races prior to his Iowa victory.

Santino Ferrucci has 79 oval points as he has finished in the top 11 of all three ovals races. After the top ten drivers, there are sizable gaps in the middle of the oval points. Kyle Kirkwood is ten points behind Ferrucci while Colton Herta is 11 points behind Kirkwood. Herta is only five points ahead of Graham Rahal but then there is a 14-point gap until Christian Lundgaard and Sting Ray Robb. Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top fifteen on 38 points.

Romain Grosjean has 37 points, one more than Marcus Armstrong, two more than Marcus Ericsson and Nolan Siegel, who has only run the Iowa races, and four points more than Linus Lundqvist. Ed Carpenter has 32 points, one more than Felix Rosenqvist.

Pietro Fittipaldi and Conor Daly are tied on 26 points, though Daly did not run the first race of the Iowa doubleheader as he substituted for Jack Harvey mid-weekend. Katherine Legge has 24 points from three oval starts while David Malukas has 22 points though he missed the Indianapolis 500.

With four oval races remaining, 216 oval points remain on the table. Last year, Newgarden was the unofficial oval champion while O'Ward was the top oval driver in the previous two seasons. The only Honda driver to top the oval championship since the return of manufacturer competition was Scott Dixon in 2020.

What Should Happen Based on Past Oval Races?

With much talk about the number of oval races to close the season, it has been a wonder of how this will decide the championship. Four of the final five races and six of the final eight races are on ovals. Álex Palou already admitted that the oval-heavy conclusion to the championship does not favor him. However, how should the ovals shake out?

Though the belief is Palou is not in an advantageous position, his oval results are better than most. In his 17 oval races with Chip Ganassi Racing, he has seven top five finishes and 14 top ten finishes. He has three consecutive top five finishes on ovals and seven top five finishes in the last eight oval races.

Since Palou joined IndyCar in 2020, he has averaged 27.782 points per oval start. That is the fifth-best in IndyCar during that time.

To the surprise of no one, Josef Newgarden has the best average over that span. The American has averaged 41.0869 points per oval start. Patricio O'Ward is second best at 38.739 points and Scott Dixon is third at 37.217. McLaughlin has averaged 31 points per oval start since he joined IndyCar full-time in 2021.

While fifth-best, just over 13 points between Newgarden and Palou on average adds up quickly. The good news is Palou has some daylight between him and Newgarden, as 145 points would require Newgarden outscoring Palou by 36.25 points in just the oval races to catch the Catalan driver, and this isn't even considering the remaining road course race at Portland.

Based on average points per oval start, Palou should end up on 522.13 points while Dixon should be in position to move up into second with 506.968 points. O'Ward should also climb to third with 494.956 points while Power should drop to fourth on 467.739 points.

Scott McLaughlin is on pace to rise to fifth with 452 points while Herta would slide back to sixth on 439.391 points. Though he has the best track record of the field on ovals, Newgarden's past form would only get him seventh in the championship with 430.347 points.

Ovals are not in Kyle Kirkwood's favor. With an average of 15.692 points per oval start, Kirkwood is in a rough position for the conclusion to this season and is projected to fall to eighth on 376.769 points, just enough to remain ahead of Alexander Rossi's 343.782 points.

Santino Ferrucci is projected to remain in the top ten. His 21 points per oval start should have him land on 315 points through the remaining oval races. That would keep him about 18 points ahead of Felix Rosenqvist and 31 points ahead of Rinus VeeKay.

There is one other wrinkle to all this. While four of the final five oval, there is a road course remaining at Portland. Ovals will largely dictate the final phase of the IndyCar season, but they will not entirely decide the championship.

Along with way oval points shake out, Palou has the added benefit in racing at Portland, a place where he has won twice in three appearances and he has the best average points per Portland start since his first appearance in 2021. Palou has an average of 41 points per start over the last three Portland races, ahead of Dixon's average of 35.667 points and McLaughlin's average of 33 points.

Add in Portland, and Palou should end the championship with about 563.13 points, ahead of Dixon's 542.5366 points and O'Ward's 521.9565 points.

Who Needs a Win?

Five races is not a lot of time for a driver to get their first victory of the season, but it is all that is left for nearly two-dozen drivers on the IndyCar grid, and some will not get as many races as that. 

Only four of the seven drivers that won in 2023 have won in 2024. 

Kyle Kirkwood leads the way of those hoping to keep a winning streak going into another year. Kirkwood is the top driver in the championship without a victory in seventh. He won twice in 2023, on the streets of Long Beach and Nashville. Kirkwood is coming off a second-place finish at Toronto prior to the Olympic break, but Toronto was only his third career podium finish, all coming on street courses. No street courses remain this season. He does have three other top five results, finishing fourth at Detroit and fifth at Road America and Laguna Seca.

Christian Lundgaard was another first-time winner in 2023. In 2024, Lundgaard is also winless. He was third at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May, leading 35 laps before finishing third. It remains Lundgaard's only top five finish this season and he has only two top ten finishes in the last eight races. On ovals, his career best finish remains tenth and he has finished 13th or worse in the three oval races this year. 

Marcus Ericsson has a three-year winning streak on the line. Ericsson was second in Detroit, but that is his only podium finish this season. He has not finished in the top five in an oval race since the first Iowa race last year. His best oval result this season is ninth. Though Ericsson has not won this season, he does have three top five finishes, but here is something you probably do not realize. The most top five finishes Ericsson has had in a season is five, and he has never had more than two top five finishes on ovals in a single season.

Alexander Rossi is now over two years removed from his most recent IndyCar victory, and he is also pushing six years removed from his most recent oval victory. Ovals were once a strong spot for Rossi, but short ovals have always been his crutch. A winner of 500-mile races at Indianapolis and Pocono, the American has never won on a short oval, and his only podium finish on a short oval was second at Gateway in 2018. His fourth-place finish last year at Gateway ended a streak of five consecutive Gateway races without a top ten finish. 

A dozen drivers entered this weekend are looking for their first career victory. Santino Ferrucci leads that contingent as Ferrucci is tenth in the championship. Though Ferrucci has seven top ten finishes this season, including in two of three oval races, he has yet to finish in the top five in 2024. All five top five finishes in his career have come on ovals, including a fourth at Gateway in 2019. A.J. Foyt Racing has not won since the 2013 Grand Prix of Long Beach, and the organization has not won on an oval since Airton Daré at Kansas in 2002.

No driver has ever had their first career victory come at Gateway.

Indy Lights

Only four races remain in the 2024 Indy Lights season, and 75% percent of those races are on ovals as well. For Louis Foster, a championship is nearly within his grasp. 

Riding a run of seven consecutive top two finishes, Foster leads the championship with 437 points and he is 77 points clear of Jacob Abel in second. With only 216 points left on the table, only seven drivers remain alive for the championship entering Gateway. 

Abel started the season with a top two streak of his own, and he led the championship through the Road America round. However, he has not finished in the top two since May when Foster’s top two streak began in the second race from Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course. Abel has finished outside the top ten in two of the last three races, which includes a 15th at Iowa, the first oval race of the season, which Foster won. 

Caio Collet had a worse day in Iowa, finishing 17th and ending a three-race top two streak for the Brazilian. Collet is 109 points back. Callum Hedge has finished fourth in the last two races and he is fourth in the championship, but a distant 185 points off the championship lead. 

Jamie Chadwick rounds out the top five on 237 points, seven more than Reece Gold, and James Roe, Jr.’s second place finish at Iowa from pole position has him on 222 points, one point within mathematically eligibility for the championship with four races to run. 

After Gateway, a driver must be within 162 points of the championship lead to remain alive for the title. Since Gateway has returned to the Indy Lights schedule, only twice in six seasons has the Gateway winner won the championship. Oliver Askew did it in 2019 and Christian Rasmussen did it last season.

Indy Ligths will run a 75-lap race around Gateway Motorsports Park at 3:55 p.m. ET on Saturday August 17. 

Fast Facts

This will be the 15th IndyCar race to take place on August 17 and the first since Will Power won at Milwaukee in 2014.

Thirteen of the first 14 IndyCar races run on August 17 have come on ovals.

The only road course race held on August 17 was at Road Amercia in 1997, which Alex Zanardi won. 

Gateway becomes the sixth consecutive different venue to host a race on August 17 after Pocono, Road America, Loudon, Kentucky and Milwaukee.

Once has a first-time winner come on August 17. Robbie Buhl's first career victory at Loudon was on August 17, 1997.

Gateway could become the ninth circuit where Scott Dixon has won at least three races. It could be the seventh different circuit where Dixon has won consecutive races.

David Malukas could become the first driver to win at Gateway in IndyCar and Indy Lights.

Conor Daly will drive the #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet for the remainder of the season. Juncos Hollinger Racing becomes the 11th different team in Daly's IndyCar career. Gateway will be Daly's fifth consecutive start with a different team.

Since 2017, the average number of passes in a Gateway race is 286.875 with a median of 236. The average number of passes for position in a Gateway race is 134.5 with a median of 125. 

The most passes in a Gateway race since 2017 was 520 in 2022 while the most passes for position were 217 in last year's race. The fewest passes and passes for position both occurred in the first race of the 2020 doubleheader. There were 125 passes, only 65 of which were for position. Six cars were caught in an opening lap accident in that race, and that race only ran for 200 laps. 

The average starting position for a Gateway winner is 4.8667 with a median of third.

Scott Dixon's victory from 16th last year was the worst starting position for a Gateway winer.

Prior to last year, nine consecutive Gateway races had been won from a top five starting position.

Seven races have been won from the front row this season, including Josef Newgarden from the third at the Indianapolis 500. Last year, only three races were won from the front row.

Since returning to the calendar in 2017, the pole position has yet to win at Gateway.

The average number of lead changes in a Gateway race is 9.2 with a median of ten. 

The most lead changes in a Gateway race is 13, which occurred in 2019 and 2022. The fewest lead changes in a Gateway race is three, which occurred in 1998.

The average number of cautions in a Gateway race is 4.0667 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 37 with a median of 29.

Predictions

Colton Herta keeps it going and he wins his second consecutive race nearly a month after getting his first victory in over two years. Herta does it from pole position, there will be at least five lead changes, and Herta will have two Team Penske drivers joining him on the podium. Álex Palou will finish behind Scott Dixon, but Palou will finish inside the top eight. The total number of passes will be below the Gateway average since 2017, but it will be within 50 passes of the average. The top ten finish streak ends for at least two of Rinus VeeKay, Romain Grosjean and Graham Rahal. Felix Rosenqvist's top ten finish drought will end. The #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet will exit this weekend ahead of the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet in the entrants' championship. Sleeper: Marcis Ericsson.