Friday, September 26, 2014

Friday Five: SUGO, Zandvoort, Santa Cruz do Sul, Aragón and Dover

Two series head into their penultimate races, one championship is already decided while the other is still anyone's championship. Three other major series will be on track this weekend to close out the month of September. Let's start in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Anyone's Ballgame in Super Formula
With 29 points points still available in the final two rounds of the 2014 Super Formula season, everyone (even you and me) are still mathematically eligible for the championship. Brazilian João Paulo de Oliveira leads the championship with 29 points from two victories, a second, third and a seventh from the first six races. He leads 2014 throwback driver of the year André Lotterer by 2.5 points. The busy German has split his 2014 season between Super Formula, winning Le Mans and competing as an Audi factory driver in the FIA World Endurance Championship while finding the time to make his debut in Formula One at the Belgian Grand Prix for Caterham. Lotterer has two Super Formula victories but missed the Motegi round to drive at Spa-Francorchamps.

Four points behind de Oliveira is Lotterer's teammate, current Toyota factory driver and former Williams F1 driver and this year's winner of the Suzuka 1000km Kazuki Nakajima. He won at Fuji Speedway in July. Loïc Duval is 8.5 points behind de Oliveira and won the season opener at Suzuka.

Other notable names competing in Super Formula are former Super Aguri and Honda F1 test driver and Nakajima's co-winner in this year's Suzuka 1000km James Rossiter, who is seventh in the championship with 15.5 points. João Paulo de Oliveira's teammate is former Formula One driver and NASCAR Truck Series driver Narain Karthikeyan. The Indian has scored 4.5 points. Former Indy Lights winner and 2008 IndyCar Rookie of the Year Hideki Mutoh has scored four points this season. Former Red Bull and Scuderia Toro Rosso driver Vitantonio Liuzzi has scored 1.5 points this season.

Super Formula heads to Sportsland SUGO which is one of de Oliveira's worst tracks. In six starts, his best finish is sixth and has failed to score points on four appearance. Duval has three wins, six podiums and has scored in all seven starts at SUGO. Lotterer has made 11 starts with one win and five podiums at the track and was the sight of his first Super Formula pole in 2003. Nakajima has only made three starts at SUGO with finishes of third and fifth and retired from the race last year.

Just for Fun at Zandvoort
Marco Wittmann has locked up the 2014 Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters championship, as the other drivers fight to better there championship position in the final two rounds at Zandvoort and Hockenheim.

Oschersleben winner Christian Vietoris is second in the championship with 59 points, three ahead of Audi drivers Mattias Ekström and Edoardo Mortara. Last year's champions Mike Rockenfeller is two points behind his fellow Audi drivers. Audi is still looking for their first victory in 2014. Bruno Spengler is sixth in the championship and is still looking for his first victory in 2014. The Canadian has not gone winless in a season since 2009. Pascal Wehrlein jumped to seventh in the championship after winning at Lausitz two weeks ago. With 40 points, Wehrlein is two behind Spengler and one ahead of Moscow winner Maxime Martin and last year's championship runner-up and defending Zandvoort race winner Augusto Farfus. Norisring winner Robert Wickens is tenth in the championship, three behind Wehrlein and one ahead of Adrien Tambay.

In thirteen Zandvoort races, Audi has seven victories, Mercedes five and Farfus' victory last year was BMW's first at the Dutch track in DTM. Ekström and Gary Pafffet lead all drivers with three Zandvoort victories apiece. Ekström's last came in 2008 while Paffett won back-to-back years in 2009 and 2010. Paffett has scored four points this season, matching the 2003 as a personal low.

Anyone's Ball Game in Stock Car Brasil
One hundred and sixty-five points remain on the table with four rounds, seven races left in the 2014 Stock Car Brasil season. Átila Abreu leads the championship with only 145.5 points but, just like Super Formula, everyone is still mathematically eligible for the championship. Abreu's lone victory this season came at Brasilia, a future destination for IndyCar and he scored only his fourth podium from fourteen races at Velopark a fortnight ago.

Second in the championship, trailing by 6.5 points is Rubens Barrichello. Rubinho has two victories and four podiums this season. Five-time Stock Car Brasil champion Cacá Bueno is 18.5 points behind Abreu but Bueno is still winless in 2014. Sérgio Jimenez is fourth, 24.5 points back with two-time race winner this season Thiago Camilo rounding out the top five of the championship, trailing Abreu by 39. Defending champion Ricardo Maurício is sixth in the championship after winning two of the last three races, 44 points back.

When the series first visited Santa Cruz do Sul on Palm Sunday earlier this year, Valdeno Brito and former Formula One and IndyCar driver Antônio Pizzonia splitting the weekend. There have been ten different winners from fourteen races so far this Stock Car Brasil season.

And Then There Were Four
With five races remaining, only four riders are mathematically eligible for 2014 world championship but Marc Márquez has a stranglehold in his title defense. Seventy-four points clear of his Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa, Márquez has won eleven from thirteen and is the defending winner at Aragón. Coming off his victory at Misano, Valentino Rossi is seventy-five points behind Márquez and Jorge Lorenzo is the final driver with a shot of dethroning Márquez, 112 points back.

Márquez can't clinch the title in his homeland but he can come within one point of a second consecutive world title with a win and some misfortune to Pedrosa and Rossi. If Márquez wins, Pedrosa fails to score and Rossi scores one point or less at Aragón, the Catalan rider will have a 99-point lead with a maximum of 100 points to possibly be scored. Pedrosa and Rossi have yet to retire from a race this year but Pedrosa did retire at Aragón last year after high siding on lap six. Lorenzo has finished runner-up in the last four races and has finished runner-up at Aragón the last two years.

First Round of Eliminations from Dover
Team Penske has guaranteed both their drivers will move on to the second round of the Chase with Joey Logano winning at New Hampshire a week after Brad Keselowski won at Chicagoland.

Kevin Harvick is all but locked into the next round as he sits 41 points ahead of thirteenth. Jimmie Johnson is 31 points clear. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kyle Busch are both 28 points to the good and Jeff Gordon is 21 points ahead of thirteenth.

Twelve points cover 8th to 16th in the championship. Carl Edwards and his former and future teammate Matt Kenseth are eight points ahead of thirteenth. A.J. Allmendinger is seven ahead and Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne occupy the final two spots, both six ahead of Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle who are tied for thirteenth. Kurt Busch is eight points out of a the top twelve and Aric Almirola trails twelfth by ten points.

Of the fourteen drivers not guaranteed to advance, eight have won at Dover before (Johnson, Kenseth, Kyle and Kurt Busch, Earnhardt, Jr, Gordon, Newman and Biffle). A non-Chase driver has never won the Chase race at Dover.

Coverage
MotoGP coverage for the Aragón Grand Prix begins at 7:00 a.m. ET Sunday on Fox Sports 1 with the lights going out at 8:00 a.m. ET.

ESPN's coverage of the Dover race will begin at 2:00 p.m. ET Sunday.

Over/Under

1. Over or Under: 1.5 Japanese drivers on the Sportsland SUGO podium? At least one Japanese driver has finished on the podium of every Super Formula race so far this season with Fuji featuring an all-Japanese podium.
2. Over or Under: 1.5 Audi drivers on the Zandvoort podium? In the last ten races from the Dutch track, Audi has averaged 2.1 drivers on the podium.
3. Over or Under: 0.5 drivers getting their first win of the Stock Car Brasil season at Santa Cruz do Sul?
4. Over or Under:1.5 Ducatis finishing in the top five?
5. Over or Under: 52.5 laps being the length of the average green flag run at Dover? In the last ten Dover races, the average green flag run has been 52.9 laps.

Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Under: There were only 2 manufactures on the overall 1000km Nürburgring (Audi and Mercedes).
2. Under: Dane Cameron leads GTD by 4 points over Leh Keen and Cooper MacNeil.
3. Over: The GTM-Am winning #98 Aston Martin ran 87.89% of the total amount of laps.
4. Over: There were four lead changes at Singapore.
5. Over: Corey Lajoie ran 201 laps on his Cup series debut.

Predictions
1. There will be a new Super Formula championship leader after Sportsland SUGO.
2. Second time is the charm, Audi gets their first DTM victory of 2014 at Zandvoort.
3. Someone whose first name begins with the letter "R" will win a race at Santa Cruz do Sul.
4. Nicky Hayden scores a top ten finish on his MotoGP return from wrist surgery.
5. Greg Biffle advances to round two of the Chase.

Last Week's Predictions
1. Of the three class winners, two will feature first time winners in 2014 at the 1000km Nürburgring. (Wrong. Only one first time winner at Nürburgring, the Gentlemen Trophy winning #22 Audi of Team Parker Racing with drivers Ian Loggie and Julian Westwood).
2. Bruno Junqueira and Duncan Ende win in PC. (Massively wrong. They were the first team to retire after eight laps).
3. An American will be a part of a winning team in the 6 Hours at Circuit of the Americas. (Wrong. Best finishing American in class was Scott Sharp and Ed Brown with Ryan Dalziel finishing 3rd in LMP2).
4. Felipe Massa gets back-to-back podium finishes for the first time since the 2010 Australian and Malaysian Grand Prix. (Wrong. Massa finished 5th in Singapore).
5. Three non-Chase drivers will finish in the top ten at Loudon. (Correct! Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray and Brian Vickers all finished in the top ten). 
Overall: 1/5. Running Tally: 3.5/10