Thursday, August 24, 2017

Track Walk: Gateway 2017

IndyCar heads to its final oval race of the 2017
For the first time since 2003, IndyCar races at Gateway Motorsports Park and the 1.25-mile oval marks the final oval race and the final night race of the 2017 Verizon IndyCar Series season. Fifteen drivers are still mathematically alive for the championship with three races to go but it remains tight at the top of the championship. Josef Newgarden extended his lead to 18 points over second in the championship, Scott Dixon. Hélio Castroneves is 22 points back. Simon Pagenaud is 26 points back. Will Power's Pocono victory has narrowed the gap between the top five to 42 points. Graham Rahal still has a shot at the championship, trailing Newgarden by 76 points with Takuma Sato 95 points back and Alexander Rossi rounding out the top eight an even 100 points off his fellow American.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 9:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 26th. Green flag will be at 9:40 p.m. ET.
TV Channel: NBCSN.
Announcers: Kevin Lee will be in the booth with Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy. Jon Beekhuis, Katie Hargitt, Anders Krohn and Robin Miller will be working the pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice- 5:00 p.m. ET (60-minute session).
Qualifying- 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have taped coverage at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday).
Final Practice- 10:00 p.m. ET (60-minute session).
Saturday: 
Race- 9:40 p.m. ET (248 laps).

Fight For Top Oval Honors
Though IndyCar no longer recognizes the top driver from each discipline, seven drivers have a shot of being the best driver on ovals after Gateway.

It should come to no surprise that Will Power, the only driver with multiple oval victories this season, has scored the most points on ovals. The Australian has scored 220 points from the five oval races. Besides his victories at Texas and Pocono, Power finished second at Phoenix and finished fourth at Iowa after starting on pole position. The Indianapolis 500 has been the only blemish for Power on ovals, where he was caught up in an accident in turn two late in the race.

A point behind Power is his teammate Hélio Castroneves. The Brazilian won at Iowa and finished second in the Indianapolis 500. He scored 96 points at Indianapolis thanks to a second place finish and qualifying 19th in the race. Castroneves finished fourth from pole position at Phoenix and seventh last Sunday at Pocono. Like Power, Castroneves has one blemish on an oval this season. That was his accident exiting turn two at Texas, which classified him in 20th. Castroneves has finished in the top ten in all five of his Gateway starts. He won the most recent Gateway race in 2003 from pole position and his first career IndyCar podium came at Gateway when he finished second to Michael Andretti in 1999.

Tony Kanaan's season has been saved by ovals. The Brazilian's only three top five finishes have come on ovals this season. He finished fourth at Indianapolis, second in a controversial race at Texas and he finished fifth at Pocono. He did manage to come home in sixth at Phoenix, a race where the Hondas were significantly disadvantaged and he finished ninth at Iowa, a race where the Hondas were much more competitive. Kanaan has made four Gateway starts and he finished second to Castroneves in 2003 after starting third.

Takuma Sato is fourth in the de facto oval championship but 137 of Sato's 203 points, over two-thirds of his oval points, came thanks to his Indianapolis 500 victory and fourth place qualifying effort. In the other four oval races, Sato's best finish was tenth at Texas, a race where he did not finish after an accident with Scott Dixon in the final ten laps while battle for second place and a shot at victory.

Simon Pagenaud trails his teammate Power by 30 points. Pagenaud picked up his first career oval victory at Phoenix in April. He led 116 laps that night at Phoenix and won from fifth on the grid. He finished third at Texas and fourth at Pocono. He finished seventh at Iowa and 14th in the Indianapolis 500.

Alexander Rossi and J.R. Hildebrand have a mathematical shot at being the top oval driver but they will need Power, Castroneves and Kanaan to all fail to start at Gateway. Rossi and Hildebrand have scored 169 and 167 points respectively. Rossi finished third at Pocono and seventh at Indianapolis while Hildebrand stood on the podium twice on the ovals with a second at Iowa and third at Phoenix.

Can Newgarden Continue Success?
Josef Newgarden extended his championship lead to 18 points over Scott Dixon but ovals have not gone his way this season.

Newgarden has only scored 145 points on ovals this season, that is 14th among all drivers and behind the likes of Ed Carpenter, Max Chilton, Marco Andretti and Ed Jones. He finished ninth at Phoenix but that was after two brushes with the wall dropped him out of contention for a victory. He had accidents end his day at both Indianapolis and Texas with the Texas accident coming because of an audacious move on the outside turn four while in contention for the victory. He came home sixth at Iowa but was not really a factor and he finished second at Pocono after a late battle for the victory with his teammate Power.

While the results have started going Newgarden's way in the last few oval races, he has not had much success in oval qualifying this year. He started fourth at Phoenix but that is his only top ten start on an oval this season with three starts outside the top fifteen. Newgarden has finished better than his starting position in every oval race since Phoenix.

Newgarden heads to Gateway with five podium finishes in the last seven races and five consecutive top ten finishes and he has led a lap in each of the last seven races. He has led a lap in every oval race but Indianapolis this season.

Can Honda Slow The Bleeding?
Honda has been behind the eight ball on short ovals during the aero kit-era and this could deride the championship hopes of Sato, Rossi, Scott Dixon and Graham Rahal

Dixon has finished in the top ten in every race this season but the Indianapolis 500. However, in the last seven races Dixon has only one top five finish, his victory at Road America, after four podium finishes and six top five finishes from the first seven races. Dixon is one of three drivers on the grid with Gateway experience. He started fifth and led 78 laps before a gearbox issue caused him to retire from the 2003 race.

Rahal heads to Gateway with eight consecutive top ten finishes and he has completed every lap in the last ten races. He has three consecutive top ten finishes on ovals and the longest streak of top ten finish on ovals in his career is four, which has occurred on two occasions, most recently in 2012. His father Bobby made two starts at Gateway with his best finish being eight in 1998 after he retired from the inaugural Gateway race in 1997 due to an electrical issue. His wife Courtney Force won at Gateway in the NHRA's funny car class in 2014.

James Hinchcliffe sits tenth in the championship and is five points ahead of fellow Honda drivers Ryan Hunter-Reay and Max Chilton. Hinchcliffe has only scored 98 points from the five oval races, the same total as Gabby Chaves, who has only contested three oval races this season. Hunter-Reay enters Gateway with four top ten finishes on the trot and the once dominator of short ovals looks to get back to his winning ways on the short tracks. He finished third at Iowa in last month, his first top five finish on a short oval in almost two seasons. Chilton had led a lap in the last three oval races prior to Pocono. Pocono was the second retirement of the season for Chilton, as he exited the race due to mechanical issues after completing 129 laps.

Rookie of the Year to be Crowned
While the championship will likely go to the wire, the 2017 IndyCar Rookie of the Year will be clinched at Gateway thanks to the return of Sébastien Bourdais.

Bourdais' IndyCar return comes 98 days after his hip fracturing accident on the first day of Indianapolis 500 qualifying. Bourdais won the season opener at St. Petersburg and finished second at Long Beach before making it three top ten finishes from the first three races with an eighth place finish at Barber. He led the championship until being caught up in the turn one lap one accident at Phoenix and he started sixth for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis before his engine expired after three laps. Before his accident at Phoenix, Bourdais had three consecutive top ten finishes on short ovals.

Dale Coyne Racing teammates Ed Jones and Esteban Gutiérrez were the final two rookies vying for the honor of Rookie of the Year but with only 212 points left on the table for the final three races and Jones holding a 207-point advantage over his Mexican teammate, Jones would have clinch the Rookie of the Year honors simply by starting at Gateway had Gutiérrez been in the #18 Honda.

Jones has five top ten finishes this season but the second half of his season has not been as successful as his first half. The Emirati driver's lead lap finish at Pocono was only his second lead lap finish in the last seven races and he has only one top ten finish in that period, a seventh at Road America. Jones was seventh in the championship after the first Belle Isle race. He know sits 14th in the championship.

Gutiérrez made seven starts this season. Gutiérrez finished ahead of Jones in four of seven starts this season and qualified ahead of Jones twice. Pocono was the first retirement of the season for Gutiérrez after he brushed the wall exiting turn three. He completed 23 laps. His best finish was at Iowa in 13th position, one lap down, after starting 18th.

Road to Indy
Two Road to Indy series join IndyCar at Gateway. One title could be wrapped up on Saturday night while the other appears headed to Watkins Glen.

Kyle Kaiser leads the Indy Lights championship with 297 points and he is 42 points clear of Colton Herta and Santiago Urrutia. Kaiser will clinch the Indy Lights championship if he leaves Gateway with a 34-point lead. A second place finish will clinch the title for Kaiser. His first Indy Lights victory came at the short oval of Phoenix last season but his other oval finishes have not been of that quality. He had an accident in last year's Freedom 100 and he finished sixth at Iowa later that season. He finished ninth in this year's Freedom 100 and finished fifth at Iowa in July. Kaiser is coming off the worst weekend of his season after a pair of 12th place finishes at Mid-Ohio after sweeping the weekend at Toronto.

A total of seven drivers have a mathematical shot at the Indy Lights title. Herta and Urrutia are tied on 255 points with Herta holding the tiebreaker with two victories to Urrutia's one but Herta has not won since Barber in April and Urrutia won race one at Mid-Ohio and finished second in race two. Matheus Leist has won the first two oval races this season and he is tied with Kaiser and Nico Jamin for most victories this season at three but the Brazilian trails Kaiser by 48 points after finishes of tenth or worse in three of the last four races. Carlin has won three of the five short oval races it has participated in since joining Indy Lights in 2015 with three different drivers. Max Chilton won at Iowa in 2015, Félix Serrallés won at Iowa in 2016 and Leist won at Iowa this season.

Zachary Claman DeMelo is 54 points back and the Canadian has four consecutive top five finishes. He finished sixth in both oval races this season. Nico Jamin's third place finish and victory at Mid-Ohio has him 55 points off Kaiser. Jamin has not won on an oval in any of his first three seasons in the Road to Indy system between two years in U.S. F2000 and a year in Pro Mazda. His best oval result was second at Indianapolis Raceway Park in U.S. F2000 in 2015 to Jake Eidson. Aaron Telitz has a shot on paper at the title but he needs Kaiser to miss the final two rounds while taking victory in each race. Telitz has eight top five finishes this season.

Fifteen cars are entered for Gateway, including Chad Boat, who makes a delayed Indy Lights debut with Belardi Auto Racing. Boat was entered for Iowa but had to miss the race due to an injury.

The 75-lap Indy Lights race will take place at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 26th.

Pro Mazda has three races remaining and Gateway is the only oval race on the 2017 calendar.

Anthony Martin took the championship lead from Victor Franzoni after winning two of the three Mid-Ohio races and the Australian holds a four-point advantage. Franzoni won the other Mid-Ohio race with Martin finishing second in that race. Franzoni finished second to Martin in the other two Mid-Ohio races. Through nine races Martin has won five races to Franzoni's four. Martin has made two oval starts in his Road to Indy career, both at Indianapolis Raceway Park in U.S. F2000. He finished fourth at the track in 2015 and he won there last year. Franzoni has three oval starts in his Road to Indy career and like Martin all his oval starts have come at IRP. Franzoni finished third in the U.S. F2000 races at IRP in 2014 and 2016 and he finished sixth at the Pro Mazda race at the track in 2015.

Team Pelfrey drivers TJ Fischer and Carlos Cunha are both mathematically eligible for the championship. They trail Martin by 84 points and 92 points respectively. Fischer has five podium finishes this season while Cunha has stood on the podium three times. Ten cars are entered for the Gateway round.

The 55-lap Pro Mazda race will take place at 5:55 p.m. ET on Saturday August 26th.

Fast Facts
This will be the 15th IndyCar race to take place on August 26th and the first since Ryan Briscoe won at Sonoma in 2012.

This year's race occurs 16 years to the day of the first IRL race at Gateway, which was won by Al Unser, Jr.

This year's race occurs 10 years to the day Sébastien Bourdais won at Zolder and Scott Dixon won at Sonoma.

Seven different drivers have won the seven Gateway races.

Team Penske leads all teams with three Gateway victories. Chip Ganassi Racing is the only other active team to have won at Gateway and the team has won twice at Gateway.

Chevrolet and Honda have each won once at Gateway. Honda's victory came at the hands of Chip Ganassi Racing and Chevrolet's victory came at the hands of Team Penske.

Six different manufactures have won at Gateway (Mercedes-Benz-Illmor, Honda, Ford-Cosworth, Toyota, Oldsmobile and Chevrolet).

Toyota leads all manufactures with two Gateway victories.

Team Penske has won the last four races. The last team to win five consecutive races was Newman/Haas Racing in 2005 when the team won six consecutive Champ Car races. Bourdais won at Edmonton, San Jose and Denver and then Oriol Servià picked up his one and so far only victory at Montreal and Bourdais followed that up by winning the following two races at Las Vegas and Surfers Paradise.

Ed Carpenter made two starts at Gateway in Indy Lights. He finished third in the 2002 race and fourth in 2003.

In the ten short oval races in the DW12-era, Marco Andretti has finished outside of the top ten in six of those with an average finish of 12.2. He finished second in the first short oval race of the DW12-era at Iowa in 2012.

Carlos Muñoz picked up his second career top ten finish on a short oval earlier this year at Phoenix when he finished tenth. He finished fifth at Iowa in 2015.

Conor Daly was the fastest driver in the May test at Gateway prior to the repave with a lap at 25.4371 seconds and unofficially he was second fastest at the post-repave test earlier this month, behind Hélio Castroneves, who was running around 24.4 seconds.

Sebastián Saavedra's retirement at Pocono was his 22nd retirement in 64 IndyCar starts.

The average starting position for a Gateway winner is fifth with a median of 3.5.

The pole-sitter has won at Gateway three times, including the two most recent Gateway races.

The Gateway winner has started 11th on two occasions, Alex Zanardi in 1998 and Michael Andretti in 1999. This is the furthest back a Gateway winner has started on grid.

The average number of lead changes in a Gateway race is eight with a median of ten.

Four Gateway races have featured ten lead changes.

The fewest number of lead changes at Gateway was three in 1998.

The average number of cautions in a Gateway race is five with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 46.285 with a median of 35 laps.

The fewest number of cautions at Gateway is one, which occurred in 2000 and the most is eight, which occurred in 1997 and 1999.

The last three Gateway races have featured four cautions.

The fewest number of caution laps at Gateway is five, which occurred in 2000 and the most is 88, which occurred in 1997.

Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon and Hélio Castroneves are both one top five finish away from tying Michael Andretti for fifth all-time at 139 top five finishes.

Hélio Castroneves needs to lead 28 laps to reach the 6,000 laps led milestone.

Simon Pagenaud needs to lead 149 laps to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.

Ed Carpenter needs to lead 90 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.

Predictions
Third time is the charm and J.R. Hildebrand takes the victory after holding off Josef Newgarden and Will Power. A Honda finishes in the top five but no Hondas start in the top five. At least one Penske retires before the halfway point in this race. Scott Dixon will remain second in the championship. At least two drivers starting outside the top fifteen finish in the top seven. There will be at least two rounds of green flag pit stops. Sleeper: Conor Daly.