Monday, July 16, 2018

Musings From the Weekend: 2018-19 IndyCar Silly Season Part One

France is world champion and that wasn't the only title success for the country this weekend. Scott Dixon continues to do Scott Dixon things. The Mazda Road to Indy series had many accidents in Toronto. Audi finally got on the scoreboard in DTM. Portland hosted a notable racing event. MotoGP held its final event before its summer break. NASCAR had another race in Kentucky and it is starting to think it could run a street course. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

2018-19 IndyCar Silly Season
We are always looking to next year and for a while 2019 appeared to be outstandingly beautiful, blinding if you will and it seemed it could not be that good. It appears that was the case and the first domino to fall hit nothing.

Reports are conflicting. Will McLaren come to IndyCar or won't it? Many think that the manufacture has come to its sense. The manufacture is saying otherwise. I don't see it happening.

McLaren is a woman in an affair with plans of running away with her lover and leaving behind everything for a new and rosier life but a seismic life event occurred, a parent or child ended up in hospital, breaking the spell McLaren was under and it has come time for McLaren to face reality and leave behind the plans made in the throws of lust.

With the Formula One program in a near dire situation the IndyCar program has to be put on hold for the team from Woking. Scott Dixon will not be getting the payday it would take to get him out of Chip Ganassi Racing and in all likelihood Fernando Alonso will not be full-time in IndyCar. An Indianapolis 500 entry cannot be ruled out for the Spaniard but papaya will not be a regular color on the 2019 IndyCar grid.

Maybe it is better if McLaren does not come into IndyCar. It is a big name but one that does not have its house in order. The Formula One team's trouble has been somewhat self-induced through poor management decisions, lack of sponsorship and tense relationships with multiple engine manufactures. It was a team that believed it was too big to fail and it has not kept up with the changing dynamics of Formula One that has seen Mercedes and Red Bull dominate this decade. McLaren has been living off its wealth and not bringing in income. It is a team stuck in the middle of last decade. McLaren is a historic name, it is a notable name but so was Lotus when it entered IndyCar in 2012. You probably dismiss an McLaren IndyCar effort resembling anything of the ill-fated Lotus program in the first three words of this sentence but this is IndyCar. It is always too good to be true.

Despite McLaren coming to its senses IndyCar is in a bit of a fantasy world, one where Scuderia Corsa may bring Felix Rosenqvist to the series or perhaps Rosenqvist will be heading to Chip Ganassi Racing, Harding Racing is a two-car operation and the likes of Juncos Racing and Meyer Shank Racing are full-time teams.

Sitting here in the middle of July it seems not much will be changing despite all the excitement. Dixon isn't leaving Ganassi for anything but a larger check and McLaren was the only entity that could have enticed him to change his scenery. All four Andretti drivers do not appear to be heading anywhere. Team Penske doesn't appear to be changing anything despite Will Power and Simon Pagenaud both allegedly in contract years and both those drivers fall in the same boat as Dixon. Graham Rahal has locked up a five-year deal with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and A.J. Foyt has confirmed it will retain the all-Brazilian lineup of Tony Kanaan and Matheus Leist for another season. Sam Schmidt seems confident he will have Robert Wickens and James Hinchcliffe for another year if not further into the future.

And just like that we have 13 spots on the 2019 grid penciled in.

It doesn't appear Carlin will be shaking up its lineup of Charlie Kimball and Max Chilton. The second Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing seat could be in play but Takuma Sato brings a fair amount of funding from Honda. RLLR is also open to expanding to three cars.

However, this is IndyCar. The deck is always shuffled a bit. Someone will run out of money and be replaced by something with a load of cash. One driver will decide he needs a new home in hopes of improved results and the same will be the case for a team hoping to find a driver to take them to the next level. There will a few new faces that get opportunities through full-time and part-time efforts and there will be a face or two that will start to fade away.

The biggest domino could be Sébastien Bourdais but he has had quite a bit of success with Dale Coyne Racing and he has his team around him. It is tough to see him leave and the only destination I could see him leave for would be the second Chip Ganassi Racing seat, a move you cannot rule out and not because of the Frenchman's sports car ties to the team. This is Chip Ganassi Racing. Nobody is safe. Outside of a championship nothing Ed Jones does will be enough to guarantee he will remain in that seat for 2019. Jones could show with 2% milk instead of whole one morning at the shop and end up out of a job. Ganassi has fired more successful drivers than Jones.

But the second Ganassi seat might be neither for Jones nor Bourdais. Felix Rosenqvist has been the apple of Chip Ganassi's eye since he was in Indy Lights in 2016 and the driver has wrapped up another Formula E season with Mahindra. It seemed Rosenqvist was the desired driver for the #10 Honda for this season but he couldn't get out of his Formula E contract so the team went with Brendon Hartley. We know Toro Rosso came calling for Hartley and that is how Jones ended up in the seat. Let's face it: Ed Jones was "plan C" for Ganassi. Cutting him would not be hard to do and Rosenqvist could be the guy Jones makes way for.

The second Dale Coyne Racing seat will be open for a while. Three drivers have shared that car this year and none of them could be in that car for any part of next year. Zachary Claman De Melo did well while Pietro Fittipaldi and the Santino Ferrucci each only have had one round. Coyne might not be waiting to confirm drivers until minutes before the first practice session of the season but that seat might not be full for a while as many different name enter the discussion. We will have to wait and see how Fittipaldi does in the latter part of the season and with Ferrucci's debacle in Formula Two I think IndyCar teams will stay away for a while.

Ed Carpenter Racing has been silent but I think it is somewhat invested in Spencer Pigot and will want to give him another full season but Jordan King is a greater question mark with plenty of young drivers who would settle for a dozen IndyCar races. King has had a tendency of finding the barrier and it is starting to overshadow the speed he has expressed. While Harding Racing may have intentions of multiple cars in 2019, the saga of Gabby Chaves and the empty second seat will still have to play out.

It is difficult to predict who will be entering the series. While the Road to Indy has been successful the lack of entries in Indy Lights makes it difficult for more than one driver to get a promotion and you never know which drivers currently competing in Europe will make the move to the United States. It seems Colton Herta is destined for IndyCar in 2019 regardless if the 18-year-old wins the Indy Lights championship or not. If he doesn't win the Indy Lights championship it opens the door for Pato O'Ward, Santiago Urrutia or Victor Franzoni to join Herta in IndyCar next year.

The grid appears stable and on the verge of potential growth. Harding Racing is gaining its footing through what has been a rocky season. Carlin has done well and Juncos Racing has pieced together a 2018 season that has gotten the team on track more times than not as it learns the ropes. On top of all the new blood in the series Dreyer & Reinbold Racing is talking about a full-time comeback.

In recent years IndyCar has had a problem with a lot of names but not enough seats. Not everyone will end up in a seat but I think we will have more full-time drivers next year.

Champion From the Weekend
Jean-Éric Vergne clinched the Formula E Drivers' Championship with a fifth place finish in the first race of the New York ePrix.

Audi Sport ABT clinched the Formula E Teams' Championship.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Scott Dixon but did you know...

Patricio O'Ward and Santiago Urrutia split the Indy Lights races from Toronto. Rinus VeeKay swept the Pro Mazda races. Kyle Kirkwood swept the U.S. F2000 races.

Marc Márquez won MotoGP's German Grand Prix, his fifth victory of the season. Brad Binder won the Moto2 race his first career Moto2 victory. Jorge Martín won the Moto3 race, his second consecutive victory and his fifth of the season.

Lucas di Grassi and Jean-Éric Vergne split the Formula E New York ePrix.

Martin Truex, Jr. won the NASCAR Cup race from Kentucky, his fourth victory of the season. Christopher Bell won the Grand National Series race, his second victory of the season. Ben Rhodes won the Truck series.

The #61 R. Ferri Motorsport Ferrari of Toni Vilander and Miguel Molina and the #19 TruSpeed AutoSport Audi of Ryan Dalziel and Parker Chase split the Pirelli World Challenge GT SprintX races from Portland. The #50 Panoz of Ian James and Matt Keegan and the #69 Racers Edge Motorsports SIN R1 of Harry Gottsacker split the GTS SprintX races.

Gary Paffett and René Rast split the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from Zandvoort.

Pepe Oriola, Gabriele Tarquini and Norbert Michelisz split the World Touring Car Cup races at Slovakiaring.

Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One makes its biennial trip to Germany.
NASCAR makes its only stop to Loudon this year.
IMSA's two GT divisions head to Lime Rock Park for a Saturday race.
European Le Mans Series has its first race in almost two months at Red Bull Ring.
Supercars will be at Queensland Raceway.