Monday, September 24, 2018

Musings From the Weekend: A Too Early Look Ahead to the 2019 IndyCar Season

Last week it was Team Penske's 500th victory, this week it was Kyle Busch's 50 NASCAR Cup Series victory and he became the 13th driver to reach the half-century mark in NASCAR Cup victories after he took top honors at Richmond. The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters championship fight tightened up after a pair of exciting races in Austria, including a first race that saw the leader black-flagged and a driver going from fourth to first on the final lap but in the most anti-climatic manner. Rain shortened an endurance race. There was another great MotoGP battle that most of the United States could not see. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

A Too Early Look Ahead to the 2019 IndyCar Season
The IndyCar season is over but eyes begin to drift to 2019 and there is a lot of enticing topics in the early days of the offseason. Here are five things to keep an eye on not only for this offseason but throughout the 2019 season.

1. Title Sponsorship
Verizon is stepping down from its title sponsorship role after five seasons and with the 2018 season over and the 2019 season slowly approaching we are sitting here waiting for a new title sponsor to be announced.

In the early days of the offseason the frontrunner to be the new title sponsor is... unknown. It isn't clear. This isn't like the final days of Izod where there was a secondary party waiting in the wings that we expected to take over. Like a mistress. Verizon was pretty much IndyCar's mistress for about three years.

There isn't a current sponsor that has expressed any interest in increasing its involvement in the series and it is hard to imagine one stepping up to the level of title sponsor. It is a big commitment.

Where will it come from? How much will be pumped into the series? What will that company do for the series?

Expectations should be low. There will not be a massive influx of cash allowing for drivers to make an average of $5 million a year. The series is looking for a company to keep the status quo; keep the leader circle fund going, keep the Indianapolis 500 purse where it is at and that is it.

Other expectation to keep in check is this sponsor WILL NOT flood IndyCar will new fans. Race attendance WILL NOT shoot up 100% at each event. Television ratings WILL NOT go up 400%. IndyCar WILL NOT become the talk of the country in 2019. At best, we should expect IndyCar to hold serve with a new title sponsor. We should expect maybe a commercial mentioning IndyCar and maybe including a driver (but not Scott Dixon because why would anyone use the defending championship, active leader in victories and who is third all-time in victories to be the face of the series? Why would we showcase a winner?)

This title sponsorship will not be a game changer. Keep your emotions in check.

2. Deadline for 2021 Engines/2022 Chassis
IndyCar has already laid out plans for the next regulations and plans for 2.4 litre, turbocharged V6 engines to be introduced in 2021 but the timeframe for manufactures to get started on developing new engines will have to start sometime in 2019 or at least commit to developing it during sometime during 2019.

Both Honda and Chevrolet have expressed interest in the new engine formula and both will likely continue in the series but IndyCar has not been able to attract a third engine manufacture since 2012 when the 2.2 L formula was introduced. Chevrolet and Lotus joined Honda in the series but Lotus flamed out spectacularly after one ill-fated season that tore at the fabric of IndyCar.

On-track testing for the 2.2 L formula and the DW12 chassis started in August of 2011 and there were a fair share of hiccups along the way. There was a point where the drivers thought the car was going to be an un-drivable disaster and look how things turned out but if any manufacture is to commit for 2021, it will likely have to get the ball rolling in 2019.

The best way to look at it is IndyCar needs to set up the timeline so the 2.4 L engine formula is ready to go in March 2021. The series will need to start setting deadlines, such as written commitments from manufactures to the formula, design homologations and on-track tests. It is a two-year process and I bet the series will want to know who is coming to play sometime before the end of 2019 that way it can have a more focused approach to development in 2020.

When will that deadline be set? Will it be at the end of the season, end of the year or earlier? If a new manufacture is to enter in 2021 then 2019 is the year when talks and meetings should be taking place.

While engines are where attention has been focused, the pending predecessor to the DW12 chassis is already being considered. The DW12 will last until at least 2020 but the introduction of the next generation of IndyCar is planned for either 2021 or 2022. There is not a set plan that Dallara remains the sole supplier or another company will be the sole chassis manufacture or if chassis competition could return to the series for the first time in over 15 years by the time the new regulations take affect.

Same with engines, will we hear about other manufactures meeting with IndyCar in 2019, especially if the chassis will be introduced in 2021 in a sensible move to have the introduction of a new engine formula and new chassis to occur simultaneously?

These conversations should start getting serious in 2019.

3. Race Title Sponsorship
It wasn't that long ago I wrote about the lack of race sponsorship in IndyCar and then immediately after that a handful of events got race sponsors and it really wasn't a worry anymore. A lot changes in a few years.

Long Beach no longer has a title sponsor. Iowa is without a sponsor for the first time in event history. Portland is still looking for a title sponsor after a successful return to the IndyCar schedule. Circuit of the Americas is joining the calendar and will need a title sponsor. Laguna Seca is joining the calendar and will need a title sponsor. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis has been without a title sponsors for the last two years.

Over a third of the IndyCar schedule does not have a title sponsor. That isn't a bad thing but it certainly isn't good. The same way the series needs a partner the races need partners that see value in IndyCar. Without a company pumping money into an event and helping a track cover cost as well as help with promotion and getting people to the track races will die. Too many events are sitting in the breeze naked.

Not only do these events need title sponsors but they can't have Honda or Firestone throwing money at them. IndyCar needs to be attractive to new companies that see IndyCar as worth the investment. It would be nice if Chevrolet/General Motors helped support one other event but that is about it. It shouldn't have to prop up three or four events.

We should keep an eye on whether these events attract new title sponsors, how early these deals are announced, how long these deals are for and what the hell the company is that will be supporting these events. It will also be interesting to see if any of these sponsor-less events will be network NBC races and if that helps at all. Laguna Seca is penciled in to be on network television but outside of that race and the Indianapolis 500 it isn't clear what events will be on NBC. That could be a big factor for the health of these races.

4. New U.S. TV Deal and Pending International TV Deals
Speaking of NBC, things are going to change.

We aren't sure what it is going to look like. We aren't sure how the NBC Sports Gold package will work or how much it will cost. We aren't sure what we are going to lose. People will get mad. It is IndyCar after all. It might be an improved IndyCar but it is still an imperfect IndyCar. Somebody will be mad that practice isn't streamed for free online. Somebody will be upset over taped-delay practice sessions.

You might not like how the Indianapolis 500 will be covered. Are you prepared for that? It might be more but maybe you do not want more or maybe it isn't the more you dreamt of. Are you ready to set yourself up for disappointment?

The new television deal might not be good enough for you even though it could be more televised sessions, more time on network television and more coverage for IndyCar than the series has had in the last twenty years.

The U.S. television deal is set but the international deals are still waiting to be completed and part of the reason is Fernando Alonso's potential move to the series. It makes sense the series is holding out to maximize its value but the series also runs the risk of getting significantly less than it hopes for if Alonso does not come to the series or if it waits too long. These international television networks have deadlines and they need to know how much money they will be spending next year. It could come to a point where enough say no and force IndyCar to agree to a price that is less than desired for the series. The series is really taking a big gamble. It could make a killing or it could end up stubbing its toe.

The same way a title sponsor will not blowup the profile of the series the money from the NBC television deal and whatever new international television deals are agreed upon will not be changing the tax brackets for the drivers. This isn't the NBA or NFL or the Premier League or any other sport league where more television money means increased salaries for the players. Motorsport is not that kind. It seems it never has been. The new deals will merely keep the series afloat.

5. Who is entering the fray?
The 2018 season was a big step forward for IndyCar with teams entering the series after years of difficulty keeping teams in the series. Carlin, Juncos Racing, Meyer Shank Racing and Harding Racing all increased participation in the series. Throughout 2018 we heard rumblings of other interested parties looking toward IndyCar.

Notable teams looking to join the series are DragonSpeed, Scuderia Corsa and McLaren. Scuderia Corsa got a taste of IndyCar in 2018 when it ran Oriol Servià's car in the Indianapolis 500 in partnership with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. McLaren's entry into IndyCar has been a two-year tease. DragonSpeed is the one team without any prior tie to IndyCar.

Besides those three teams, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has talked about increasing its participation in IndyCar after scaling back to an Indianapolis 500-only effort in 2013. Juncos Racing is exploring growing from a part-time, single-car team to a multi-car, likely full-time effort.

New teams aren't the only thing to keep an eye on but the driver market keeps getting flooded with talented drivers. On top of already unemployed drivers such as Carlos Muñoz, Conor Daly, Sage Karam, J.R. Hildebrand and Oriol Servià, there are the handful of part-timers from 2018 looking for rides, which includes Pietro Fittipaldi, Jack Harvey, Kyle Kaiser, Santino Ferrucci, Zachary Claman De Melo, Alfonso Celis, Jr., René Binder and Jordan King. Then there are those likely out of full-time rides, Ed Jones and Gabby Chaves to name two and there are the new additions of Formula One drivers with nowhere to go, looking at you Esteban Ocon, Stoffel Vandoorne and Brendon Hartley and finally there is the cornucopia of drivers from other series that could be peaking in, which includes Pascal Wehrlein, Felix Rosenqvist, Santiago Urrutia and an unknown number of drivers from Formula Two and other series.

The paragraph above has 21 names specifically mentioned are there are tentatively 15 seats already filled for the 2019 IndyCar season. The average IndyCar grid in 2018 had 23.764 cars and with new teams looking to enter and current teams possibly expanding it seems there will be at least 24 cars entered on a regular basis with some projecting as many as 28 regular entries. Not everyone will end with a seat and it will be interesting to see who hires whom this offseason. A fully dedicated silly season catch up is called for at some point in the next few weeks.

Champions From the Weekend
The #26 G-Drive Racing Oreca-Gibson of Andrea Pizzitola, Romain Rusinov and Jean-Éric Vergne clinched the LMP2 championship with an 11th place finish after starting from pole position.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Kyle Busch but did you know...

Marc Márquez won the Arágon Grand Prix, his sixth victory of the season. Brad Binder won the Moto2 race, his second victory of the season. Jorge Martin won the Moto3 race, his sixth victory of the season.

Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Richmond, his fifth victory of the season.

René Rast swept the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from the Red Bull Ring.

The #22 United Autosport Ligier-Gibson of Filipe Albuquerque and Phil Hanson won a rain-shortened European Le Mans Series 4 Hours of Spa-Francorchamps. The #2 United Autosport Ligier-Nissan of John Falb and late-substitute Scott Andrews won in the LMP3 class. The #80 EbiMotors Porsche of Riccardo Pera, Fabio Babini and Bret Curtis won in the GTE class.

Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR has its first race on the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.
Formula One returns to Russia.
World Superbikes has its final European round of the season at Magny-Cours.
Barcelona closes out the Blancpain Endurance Series.
The World Touring Car Cup has its first of two rounds from China at Ningbo.