Wednesday, March 13, 2019

2019 Formula One Preview

This year marks the 70th season for the Formula One World Championship and this season will feature 21 races contested by 20 drivers from 15 countries and ten teams representing seven countries. Not only is this a milestone season for Formula One but a milestone race will be taking place early in the year.

The season starts on March 17th in Australia on the streets of Melbourne's Albert Park for the 24th time. Sebastian Vettel has won this race the last two years after Mercedes-AMG won the prior three years. The second round of season is a fortnight later and it is the night event in Bahrain, another race where Vettel has won the previous two seasons after Mercedes-AMG won the prior three.

The third round of the season will be the Chinese Grand Prix on April 14th but it will also be the 1000th grand prix in the history of the Formula One World Championship. Red Bull won last year's race with Daniel Ricciardo after Mercedes had won the prior four years. The fourth round will be Formula One's fourth visit to the street circuit in Baku, Azerbaijan and there has yet to be a repeat winner in the history of that event.

Spain hosts the first European round of the championship on May 12th from Barcelona and Lewis Hamilton has won this race the last two years. The Monaco Grand Prix follows on May 26th and four different drivers have won the last four Monaco races.

Two weeks later Formula One makes its first stop on the North American continent with the Canadian Grand Prix. Last year, Vettel won in Montreal for the second time in his career and it was Ferrari's 14th victory in the event. The first back-to-back of the season is with the French and Austrian rounds on June 23rd and June 30th. Hamilton won the French Grand Prix last year but he retired in Austria allowing the home team Red Bull to take a popular victory with Max Verstappen. Silverstone hosts the tenth round on July 14th and Hamilton will be looking for an unprecedented sixth British Grand Prix victory while Vettel looks to back-to-back and get his third Silverstone victory.

The German Grand Prix marks the halfway point of the season on July 28th with ten races have been completed before and ten remaining on the schedule afterward. Germany is also the front end of the second back-to-back of the year with Hungary following on August 4th. Hamilton won both these races last year. Hungary is also the final round before the summer break.

When the summer break is over the teams will return to racing with another back-to-back. The Belgian Grand Prix will be on September 1st and the Italian Grand Prix will be on September 8th. Hamilton will be looking for an unprecedented sixth Italian Grand Prix victory while Mercedes will be looking for its tenth victory in that event. Singapore will host its race on the final day of the solstice on September 22nd. Vettel and Hamilton enter tied on fourth Singapore Grand Prix victories apiece. Singapore is also the front end of the fourth back-to-back of the season with the Russian Grand Prix scheduled for September 29th. Mercedes is undefeated in the Russian Grand Prix and Hamilton is the only driver to have won it multiple times. He has three Russian victories.

The Japanese Grand Prix will be on October 13th and Hamilton will try to match something only Michael Schumacher has accomplished. A victory at Suzuka would be Hamilton's third consecutive Japanese Grand Prix victory and his sixth overall in the event, matching only Schumacher, who won in Japan six times and won the race three consecutive years from 2000 to 2002. This year's race will occur 17 years to the day of Schumacher's third consecutive Suzuka victory.

The final back-to-back of the season will be the Mexican Grand Prix and the United States Grand Prix on October 27th and November 3rd respectively. Verstappen could join Jim Clark as the only three-time winners of the Mexican Grand Prix. Brazil hosts the penultimate round of the championship on November 17th. Ferrari will have a chance to tie McLaren's record of 12 Brazilian Grand Prix victories. Abu Dhabi will host the season finale on December 1st. It will be the first time a Formula One race will be held in December since the 1963 South African Grand Prix, which was held on December 28th.

This year's season will see a slight change to the point system but nothing that is unfamiliar. A point will be awarded to the driver who scores fastest lap on the condition that driver finishes in the top ten. If the driver with fastest lap does not finish in the top ten then no point will be awarded. The first ten seasons of Formula One from 1950-1959 awarded a point for fastest lap.

Constructors:
Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport
Lewis Hamilton: #44 Mercedes AMG F1 W10 EQ Power+
What did he do in 2018: Hamilton won his fifth World Drivers' Championship with 11 victories and 408 points.  He scored points in 20 of 21 races and in the 20 races he finished all were top five finishes. He also won 11 pole positions and had four fastest laps.
What to expect in 2019: Every sign points to Hamilton winning another world championship and ten more races but this year feels different. Ferrari was quicker, albeit by 0.003 seconds, at the Barcelona test. We never saw Mercedes flex its muscle. Mercedes is going to win races, Hamilton is going to win races but this feels like the year that Hamilton and Mercedes is dethroned. The team has not seemed this vulnerable since the return of the turbo-era. Hamilton is at worst going to be third in the championship and that is if everything goes wrong. He is set to be one of the top two.

Valtteri Bottas: #77 Mercedes AMG F1 W10 EQ Power+
What did he do in 2018: Bottas was fifth in the World Drivers' Championship with 247 points. He had  seven runner-up finishes, four to his teammate. He scored points in 19 of 21 races. He won two pole positions and led Formula One with seven fastest laps.
What to expect in 2019: I think Bottas wins a race this year. He took a lot of flack this offseason for his lack of performance and some of it has been unfair to him. He is going to be in the top five of the championship and he will be quick but we saw last year he isn't up to Hamilton's level. Bottas' results last year might be the give away that Mercedes is starting to slip because gone are the days of anyone being up to slip behind the wheel of the car and end up in the top two. Add to that Mercedes' concerns over Brexit, like 70% of the grid, and this year is set up to be a down year.

Scuderia Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel: #5 Ferrari SF90
What did he do in 2018: Vettel was vice-champion in the World Drivers Championship with five victories and 320 points. He scored points in 20 of 21 races. He won five pole positions and had three fastest laps.
What to expect in 2019: Vettel was fastest during testing and I think this is the year he challenges Hamilton to the end of the season. It was looking good for the first half of the year and everything fell apart once he slipped off the road in his home race. If Vettel starts the year with a victory or two I think his confidence will be hard to break. Ferrari will not have the same Brexit worries as Mercedes and if the ramifications significantly catch out other Formula One teams this could be the year Ferrari gets back on top simply because of location.

Charles Leclerc: #16 Ferrari SF9
What did he do in 2018: Leclerc was 13th in the World Drivers' Championship with 39 points and his best finish was sixth. He scored points in ten of 21 races.
What to expect in 2019: Leclerc will get some podium finishes but I am not sure when we start to see the results start coming in. He was 0.01 seconds off Vettel in testing. He may need a few races but I don't think we will be heading to Austria or Hungary and still be waiting for him to get a podium finish. A victory is another story. Vettel is gunning for the world championship and the front of the Formula One field is another level that you cannot prepare for until you experience it. I think he will be in the top five of the championship and I think he will finish ahead of Bottas.

Aston Martin Red Bull Racing
Pierre Gasly: #10 Red Bull Racing RB15
What did he do in 2018: Gasly was 15th in the World Drivers' Championship with 29 points and his best finish was fourth. He scored points five of 21 races.
What to expect in 2019: Gasly will be better than 2018 but I don't think he will be at the level of the driver he is replacing. Red Bull has taken on Honda and testing results were not great. Red Bull was behind Toro Rosso. That's not good for Red Bull. I think he will be in a fight for a top ten finish in the championship and I am not sure he will get on the podium.

Max Verstappen: #33 Red Bull Racing RB15
What did he do in 2018: Verstappen was fourth in the World Drivers' Championship with two victories and 249 points. He scored points in 17 of 21 races and he had fastest laps in Monaco and Canada.
What to expect in 2019: Verstappen was behind Gasly in testing. Everyone thinks this has to be when Honda gets it right but we have yet to see Honda make gains on one year to the next. It is always one step forward and two steps back. It appears that will be the case again in 2019. Verstappen may have some great days and maybe the Honda engine will be good enough to get Verstappen on the podium but I think for every one of those races there will be three where the best he can do is sixth or seventh.

Renault F1 Team
Daniel Ricciardo: #3 Renault R.S. 19
What did he do in 2018: Ricciardo was sixth in the World Drivers' Championship with two victories and 170 points. He scored points in 13 of 21 races. He won two pole positions and had three fastest laps.
What to expect in 2019: Renault looked good in testing but it still appears Formula One is more likely going to have Mercedes and Ferrari pull away from the rest of the field. I think there is a chance Ricciardo ends up sixth in the world championship again. He will have to be more reliable and the engine that let him down last year at Red Bull wasn't Honda, it was Renault. I would not be surprised if he got on the podium once or twice. I also would not be surprised if he is constantly in seventh.

Nico Hülkenberg: #27 Renault R.S. 19
What did he do in 2018: Hülkenberg was seventh in the World Drivers' Championship with 69 points and his best finish was fifth. He scored points in 11 of 21 races.
What to expect in 2019: Ladies and gentleman, the top non-Mercedes/non-Ferrari driver from preseason testing. Hülkenberg was fifth at Barcelona. He was the best of the rest last year. I think he could keep up those results and if the Renault engine is better while the Honda engine remains stagnant than he will move up the order. Can he get that elusive podium finish? If I think Ricciardo can do it then yes, I think Hülkenberg can do it but it will not be easy.

Rich Energy Haas F1 Team
Romain Grosjean: #8 Haas VF-19
What did he do in 2018: Grosjean was 14th in the World Drivers' Championship with 37 points and his best finish was fourth. He scored points in seven of 21 races.
What to expect in 2019: Haas is coming off its best year yet in Formula One and testing results were encouraging. Grosjean could not get out of his own way in 2018 and it allowed Kevin Magnussen to handily outscore the Frenchman but I think Grosjean has a more consistent 2019 and he might not finish ahead of his teammate but he will be closer to his teammate.

Kevin Magnussen: #20 Haas VF-19
What did he do in 2018: Magnussen was ninth in the World Drivers' Championship with 56 points and his best finish was fifth. He scored points in 11 of 21 races. He also had fastest lap at Singapore.
What to expect in 2019: Magnussen was behind Grosjean in testing but I think come the races those two will be close on track. These are two drivers that could be in the top ten of the championship. Can Haas take that next step up the grid and get a podium finish? It feels like that is possible with the Ferrari engine but it still seems to be a stretch.

McLaren F1 Team
Lando Norris: #4 McLaren MCL34 
What did he do in 2018: Norris was Formula Two vice-champion with one victory and 219 points.
What to expect in 2019: Testing went well for McLaren and Norris got a fair number of laps in. I think this is the year McLaren moves up the grid. It is not going to be winning races but the team seems to have worked the kinks from last year. I think the car will be more reliable and this could be the team that keeps Haas back.

Carlos Sainz, Jr.: #55 McLaren MCL34
What did he do in 2018: Sainz, Jr. was tenth in the World Drivers' Championship with 53 points and his best finish was fifth. He scored points in 13 of 21 races.
What to expect in 2019: This was a respectable test for Sainz, Jr. and it feels like he can bring this car home in the points on a regular basis. If I think Renault could have both its drivers on the podium, could McLaren do it? I would not be surprised if Sainz, Jr. did it but this feels like a team that could get a fifth place finish or even fourth in a race or two.

SportPesa Racing Point F1 Team
Sergio Pérez: #11 Racing Point RP19
What did he do in 2018: Pérez was eighth in the World Drivers' Championship with 62 points and his best finish was third. He scored points in 12 of 21 races.
What to expect in 2019: The team has a new look on life after it has shed the Force India tag and while this team did a great job rising to seventh in the constructors' championship after having all its points wiped off the board before the Belgian Grand Prix. But I think this is where things catch up with the team and it takes a slight step back. I think Pérez will score points but he might miss out on the top ten.

Lance Stroll: #18 Racing Point RP19
What did he do in 2018: Stroll was 18th in the World Drivers' Championship with six points after finishes of eighth in Azerbaijan and ninth in Italy.
What to expect in 2019: Somewhere between his 2017 and 2018 seasons. I am not sure he can get up to 40 points and 12th in the championship like 2017 but he should do better than six points this year. Could he score 25 points? Yeah. I think that is a reasonable goal. Does he finish ahead of his teammate? I think those two will be close to one another but the veteran does slightly better.

Alfa Romeo Racing
Kimi Räikkönen: #7 Alfa Romeo C38
What did he do in 2018: Räikkönen was third in the World Drivers' Championship with one victory and 251 points. He scored points in 17 of 21 races. He started on pole position at Italy and he had fastest lap at Austria.
What to expect in 2019: I am not sure. This is now the Alfa Romeo team, not Sauber with Alfa Romeo badging. Räikkönen had a tremendous final two years at Ferrari and there was a bit of magic still in him. This is a step back and I worry about the motivation. I think he can score points and move this team up the championship but I also think he could get highly unmotivated with a few poor races and the team could be in trouble.

Antonio Giovinazzi: #99 Alfa Romeo C38
What did he do in 2018: Giovinazzi ran the 24 Hours of Le Mans with AF Corse in the GTE-Pro class with Toni Vilander and Pipo Derani and they finished fifth in class. He also participated in six free practices for Sauber last season.
What to expect in 2019: The Italian was behind his teammate at the test but I think he will score at a similar rate to Räikkönen. It is really hard to judge because I think this team's results is depended on what it gets out of Räikkönen. If Räikkönen is participating and working on development then the team should be fine. If he is moody and has a day where he is 13th and just goes through the motions but offers little feedback then Giovinazzi and Alfa Romeo will be in trouble.

Scuderia Toro Rosso
Alexander Albon: #23 Toro Rosso STR14
What did he do in 2018: Albon was third in the Formula Two championship with four victories and 212 points.
What to expect in 2019: Albon was sixth in testing. It is hard to imagine Toro Rosso is going to go from ninth to fourth or possibly third in the constructors' championship. But maybe Toro Rosso's year with Honda gives it a leg up on the parent team and we could be looking at a repeat of the 2008 season. I think Albon is going to make mistakes but just going off testing, I got to think he will have to score points. How many is difficult to judge but if he is scoring points they come early in the season and then trail off and it would not come as surprise if as his points become harder to come by, Red Bull is scoring at a great rate than at the start of the season.

Daniil Kvyat: #26 Toro Rosso STR14
What did he do in 2018: Kvyat was a Scuderia Ferrari development driver.
What to expect in 2019: Kvyat's first stint at Toro Rosso and Red Bull did not go well and he was 0.016 seconds off his teammate. I can't see Kvyat returning to Formula One and finishing in the top ten of the championship with Toro Rosso but I have to say I think he is going to score some points.

ROKiT Williams Racing
George Russell: #63 Williams FW42
What did he do in 2018: He won the Formula Two championship with seven victories and 287 points.
What to expect in 2019: This will be a difficult year. If Russell gets a few points this year it will be a great achievement for him and Williams but he just has to get laps.

Robert Kubica: #88 Williams FW42
What did he do in 2018: Kubica was a Williams test driver.
What to expect in 2019: With all the troubles at Williams and the car being underdeveloped I think Kubica does not run the full season. I think he will be well off Russell. I think we are then looking at the difficult task of finding another driver who wants to spent half a season being a leech on the Formula One grid and that will not be Esteban Ocon.

The first practice of the season will take place at 9:00 p.m. ET on Thursday March 14th with second practice coming at 1:00 a.m. ET on Friday March 15th. Third practice will be at 11:00 p.m. ET on Friday with qualifying taking place at 2:00 a.m. ET on Saturday March 16th. The Australian Grand Prix will take place at 1:10 a.m. ET on Sunday March 17th.