Friday, November 1, 2019

2019 Super Formula Review

Last weekend saw the 2019 Super Formula season wrap up. Super Formula has seen a rise in interest over the last few seasons as the likes of Stoffel Vandoorne and Pierre Gasly venture into the series as a stepping stone to Formula One.

The 2019 season was no different with another Red Bull hopeful thirsted into the series with a few drivers with strong domestic ties in Japan emerging as potential international players. For another season the championship went to the wire and saw driver on top entering the final race exit without a trophy.

This review will go team-by-team based on the teams' championship and look back at what was written before the start of the season and what happened over the seven-race calendar.

DoCoMo Team Dandelion Racing (50 Points)
Naoki Yamamoto: #1 DoCoMo Dandelion M1S SF19-Honda (2nd, 33 Points)
What did I write before the season: As for this season, I think Yamamoto will put up a valiant title defense and he should win a race or two. If he does that he very well could win the championship but it will all come down to what happens in the remaining rounds.
What happened: Yamamoto entered the finale leading the championship and in a reverse of 2018, Yamamoto exited in second place in the championship, three points behind Nick Cassidy.

It wasn't for a lack of results. A successful title defense seemed almost certain after the first three races with two runner-up finishes and a victory at Sportsland SUGO. After scoring 27 points in the first three races he scored only six points over the next four races.

Nirei Fukuzumi: #5 DoCoMo Dandelion M5Y SF19-Honda (7th, 18 points)
What did I write before the season: Fukuzumi was competitive in testing and was not far off his teammate and in some cases he was quicker than Yamamoto. I think he will be a regular points scorer and end up on the podium a few times. Could he win a race? I wouldn't rule it out but it will not come easy.
What happened: Fukuzumi did not win a race but he finished third in the finale at Suzuka and he had three other finishes of fifth, leaving him seventh in the championship. He also had a promising day at Okayama end early due to a spin off course.

Vantelin Team TOM's (48 Points)
Kazuki Nakajima: #36 Vantelin Kowa TOM's SF19-Toyota (12th, 12 Points)
What did I write before the season: Nakajima is set. He is the staple of the Toyota LMP1 program. He has only won one race in the last three seasons. I think he will be a championship contender and I think it is because of his new teammate, Nick Cassidy.
What happened: Nakajima was not a championship contender and he was handily beat in the intra-team battle. While he did finish second in the penultimate race at Okayama, his only other finish in the points was fifth in a soaking wet Fuji race.

Nick Cassidy: #37 Vantelin Kowa TOM's SF19-Toyota (1st, 36 Points)
What did I write before the season: Cassidy is something special and I think Toyota has eyes on him. He was unfortunate roles were not reversed between him and Yamamoto. He led the Super Formula championship entering the final round and was one point behind Yamamoto and Button in GT500 entering the final race. He has to be on Toyota's radar for the LMP1 program. What else could he do? I don't see him being a full-time driver in the Lexus GTD program but if Lexus/Toyota decides to enter DPi, I wouldn't be surprised if he got a call.
What happened: Cassidy won the championship in comeback fashion. He entered the finale one point behind Yamamoto and tire strategy determined the championship. Cassidy started on the soft tires and kept going, opening a gap that could not be made up by Yamamoto and others that started on the medium compound and switched to the soft compound. It got Cassidy second while the best Yamamoto could do was fifth.

TCS Nakajima Racing (28 Points)
Álex Palou: #64 TCS Nakajima Racing SF19-Honda (3rd, 26 Points)
What did I write before the season: Palou has shown spurts of speed throughout his junior formula career. He took the old school path of leaving the European ladder system for a shot in Japan similar to Pedro de la Rosa, Ralf Schumacher and Michael Krumm. Nakajima Racing has not won a race since he 2010 season opener at Suzuka. Palou was quickest at the Suzuka test and was toward the top of the timesheet in the Fuji test. I think he will score points and maybe he could score a surprise podium finish or even victory.
What happened: Palou was fantastic and he picked up a smashing victory in the wet at Fuji. The Catalan driver picked up two other pole positions at Motegi and the Suzuka finale. It was a rookie season worth celebrating for Palou.

Tadasuke Makino: #65 TCS Nakajima Racing SF19-Honda (16th, 6 Points)
What did I write before the season: Makino was slower than his teammate in testing and I think Makino will score some points. As for the long-term, after years in Europe, he now has to establish who he is in Japan and has to build from here.
What happened: Makino was the surprise pole-sitter at the Suzuka season opener but his race ended after 26 laps and he finished sixth in the second race of the season at Autopolis but he could not match the pace of his teammate through the rest of the season and did not score another point in 2019.

Itochu Enex Team Impul (27 Points)
Yuhi Sekiguchi: #19 Itochu Enex Team Impul SF19-Toyota (8th, 16 Points)
What did I write before the season: Sekiguchi has been on the fringe of championship contention for the last few seasons but this year could be a step back and part of the reason comes in from within the team. He could finish in the top five of the championship.
What happened: Sekiguchi won at Autopolis from 16th starting position but he did take a step back after finishing third, fourth and fourth in his first three Super Formula seasons. His Autopolis victory was his only podium finish of 2019, the fewest podium finishes he has had in a season. His three points finishes were also a career low for Sekiguchi.

Ryō Hirakawa: #20 Itochu Enex Team Impul SF19-Toyota (10th, 12 Points)
What did I write before the season: Hirakawa seems to be a rising star. He finished one point behind Sekiguchi in the championship last year. I think he will get his first career victory this season and be the top Team Impul driver.
What happened: Hirakawa picked up his first career Super Formula victory in the antepenultimate race at Motegi after passing Palou on the racetrack and a successful pit stop got him out in the lead. However, Hirakawa struggled to score points with his only other finish in the points being eighth in the finale and he got a point for pole position at Okayama.

Kondō Racing (25 Points)
Kenta Yamashita: #3 Orientalbio Kondo SF19-Toyota (5th, 21 Points)
What did I write before the season: Yamashita has been fairly successful but he has yet to have a major breakthrough. He is still a relatively new driver in Super GT and Super Formula. He is definitely down the pecking order when it comes to Toyota drivers but he was one of the top Toyota drivers during testing. He is coming off his best finish and Kondō Racing won the teams' championship last year. I think Yamashita could be pushing for the top five of the championship.
What happened: Yamashita was fifth in the championship, which came after a well-run strategy at Okayama got him the victory and he finished in the points in the first three races, one of three drivers to do that alongside Cassidy and Yamamoto.

Yuji Kunimoto: #4 Orientalbio Kondo SF19-Toyota (17th, 5 Points)
What did I write before the season: Kunimoto was not far off his teammate in testing and I think this season can be marginally better than his last two in Super Formula.
What happened: This was a season back for Kunimoto after finishing eighth in the last two seasons. He had points finishes with sixth in the season opener at Suzuka, eighth at Sportsland SUGO and he picked up a point for pole position at Autopolis and then did not score any points in the final four races.

Team Mugen (25 Points)
Daniel Ticktum: #15 Team Mugen SF19-Honda (20th, 1 Point)
What did I write before the season: Ticktum is on the Red Bull Formula One path, which could be great or it could ruin his career before he is 22 years old. He turns 20 in June for perspective. Red Bull wanted him in Toro Rosso this year but he didn't have enough Super License points and the team had to settle with Daniil Kvyat. Team Mugen won the title last year with Yamamoto but Yamamoto left the team over his dissatisfaction over the team's results. Yamamoto carried the load for this team and was the only driver to score points. I think Ticktum only gets a handful of points and again will fall short of the Super License points desired. He needs five points meaning he needs to finish fifth in the championship this year. Unless Team Mugen has a massive turnaround I do not see that happening.
What happened: The Dan Ticktum experiment with Red Bull ended after three races where Ticktum's only point came at the Suzuka season opener.

Patricio O'Ward: #15 Team Mugen SF19-Honda (18th, 3 Points)
How did he do as a substitute: Red Bull's flavor of the month for July 2019 had finishes of 14th, 14th and sixth before Red Bull lost interest for a driver with zero Super Llicense points that replaced a driver that had 35 Super License points and was just trying to get those final five Super License and be eligible for Formula One.

Jüri Vips: #15 Team Mugen SF19-Honda (23rd, 0 Points)
How did he do as a substitute: Vips stalled the car and he could only manage 18th on his Super Formula debut.

Tomoki Nojiri: #16 Team Mugen SF19-Honda (4th, 24 Points)
What did I write before the season: Nojiri was apart of the Team Dandelion Racing-Team Mugen team swap.  I think he will finish ahead of Ticktum in the championship. I think he has settled into a good spot in Honda's Japanese programs.
What happened: Nojiji had encouraging results, most notably with a pair of fourth place finishes at the Suzuka season opener and the monsoon at Fuji and the season concluded with a victory in the Suzuka finale after starting on the soft tires and running away with a gap large enough to switch to the harder compound and come out on top.

JMS P.mu/cerumo INGING (22 Points)
Hiroaki Ishiura: #38 JMS P.mu/cerumo INGING SF19-Toyota (13th, 10 Points)
What did I write before the season: Ishiura has a career in Japan and I think he will be competitive but take a step back from third in the championship. He has won at least one race each of the last four seasons. That could end this year. I think the grid is really good.
What happened: Ishiura's winning streak ended at four consecutive seasons and after finishing in the top five of the championship in the last five seasons and in the top ten for the last eight seasons he participated in, Ishiura got his worst championship finish since his rookie season when he was 16th in 2008. He did end strong with four finishes in the points in the final five races but his best result was sixth at Motegi and the Suzuka finale.

Sho Tsuboi: #39 JMS P.mu/cerumo INGING SF19-Toyota (11th, 12 Points)
What did I write before the season: This is part of the reason why Ishiura will take a step back. Tsuboi was slightly faster than Ishiura in testing and he is coming in as a promising young driver. He has dominated the junior series in Japan. Despite his success, he is 23 years old. This isn't a teenager but he is still young and this is his first big step. He needs to get results and I think he will do well. I think he could finish on the podium.
What happened: Tsuboi was runner-up in the wet Fuji race but his only other finish in the points was fifth in the Suzuka season opener.

B-MAX with Motopark (20 Points)
Lucas Auer: #50 Red Bull SF19-Honda (9th, 14 Points)
What did I write before the season: I am not sure. Auer is returning to single-seaters and it is a new set of tracks for him. I do not have high hopes for him. Maybe he scores a few points, which would be a big step up since B-MAX has not scored a point the last two seasons.
What happened: Auer scored points in four of seven races and his best finish was third at Sportsland SUGO. He did cough up a great opportunity in the season finale when he stalled on the grid at the start from third starting position.

Harrison Newey: #51 Goldex Tairoku Racing SF19-Honda (15th, 6 Points)
What did I write before the season: Testing was promising. Newey was consistently 13th or 14th in testing. Maybe he gets a finish or two in the points but the bar is kept low.
What happened: After not finishing in the top fifteen in the first five races, Newey ended up on the podium thanks to tire strategy, safety car periods, cars spinning and the race ending early due to the time limit. He followed it up with a 20th place result in the finale.

carrozzeria Team KCMG (19 Points)
Kamui Kobayashi: #18 KCMG Elyse SF19-Toyota (6th, 19 Points)
What did I write before the season: Kobayashi is set. He is a Toyota LMP1 driver. He is set. It is surprising he has yet to win a race in this series after four seasons. If it is going to happen it should happen in year five.
What happened: Kobayashi had runner-up finishes at Sportsland SUGO and Motegi with a sixth at Fuji sandwiched in-between. Unfortunately, he lost a likely top five result at Okayama when he spun battling with Cassidy for a spot on the podium. Kobayashi has made 36 Super Formula starts and has yet to score a victory but has five runner-up finishes and seven podium finishes and he matched his career best championship finish.

UOMO SUNOCO Team LeMans (7 Points)
Artem Markelov: #7 UOMO SUNOCO SF19-Toyota (21st, 0 Points)
What did I write before the season:  Markelov was at the bottom of the timesheet for most of testing and I think he will struggle. I am not sure where Markelov's career goes from here. The Formula One route didn't work out. Could he end up like most Russian drivers and in the SMP Racing program? Yeah, probably.
What happened: Markelov did not score a point before returning to Formula Two to run for Arden after the death of Anthoine Hubert.

Yuichi Nakayama: #7 UOMO SUNOCO SF19-Toyota (22nd 0 Points)
How did he do as a substitute: Worse than Markelov. Nakayama's finishes were 15th and 16th while Markelov's average finish was 15.2. This was Nakayama's first time in Super Formula since 2014. In those nine starts in 2014, Nakayama's best finish was tenth at Fuji.

Kazuya Oshima: #8 UOMO SUNOCO SF19-Toyota (14th, 7 Points)
What did I write before the season: Oshima is kind of set with a career in Japan. Nothing wrong with that and for this year I think he will be ahead of Markelov most of the year but points scoring will be rare.
What happened: Oshima picked up third in that odd Autopolis round and his only other finish in the points was eighth in the odd Okayama race.

Real Racing (2 Points)
Tristan Charpentier: #17 Real SF19-Honda (Not Classified, 0 Points)
What did I write before the season: I am not sure. Charpenter is the most inexperience driver on the grid and he was at the bottom of each test session. It would be a surprise if he scored points this season. Worst case scenario is he will be an LMP3 driver or LMP2 driver in the European Le Mans Series in the next few years.
What happened: Charpentier's Super Formula carer lasted all of seven laps when he went off course.

Koudai Tsukakoshi: #17 Real SF19-Honda (19th, 2 Points)
How did he do as a substitute: The Real Racing car was never going to be a world-beater and the veteran Tsukakoshi did the best he could but the season ended on a positive note when he finished seventh in the Suzuka finale, preventing the team from being shutout in the 2019 season.

Conclusion
It should not be a surprise the championship again came down to Nick Cassidy and Naoki Yamamoto. These two drivers have been two of the best competitors in Japan and while neither has been as prolific as they were in 2018 in Super Formula and Super GT, both have been outstanding and are always a threat for victory.

Yamamoto will be unsuccessful in defending both Super Formula and Super GT's GT500 championships but Cassidy has a chance to match the championship double Yamamoto accomplished last year. The New Zealander is second in GT500 on 63 points with Hirakawa, seven behind Oshima and Yamashita entering the finale, which is this weekend at Motegi. Neither Cassidy nor Yamamoto have won in Super GT this year but Cassidy has three podium finishes and five consecutive top five finishes while Yamamoto and Jenson Button have been on the podium twice but have failed to score points in four of seven races.

Palou was the breakout star of the 2019 season. The Catalan driver had some success in GP3/Formula Three but he has hit greater heights in Japan. Whether or not Palou uses Super Formula the way Ralf Schumacher, Pedro de la Rosa and Eddie Irvine to launch him into the conversation for Formula One rides or he becomes a European making a career in Japan similar to André Lotterer, Loïc Duval and Richard Lyons is still up in the air. Palou is 22 years old with plenty of years ahead of him but in this hyper-development era of Formula One it seems unlikely he will end up on the grid. If a Formula One team has not signed him to a development role or reserve role now he likely never will be signed.

There was not another driver that stood out on the grid. A lot of drivers had one or two strong results but they all kind of cancelled each other out. Nojiri won a race late and saved what was a trying year for Team Mugen with the second seat rotating three Red Bull development drivers, two of which are no longer with the program. Kobayashi still cannot breakthrough for victory. Fukuzumi was respectable in his first full season and he heads into the Super GT finale leading the GT300 class.

Acer was a pleasant surprise and Hirakawa got that elusive victory but had too many poor days. Tsuboi did well for his rookie season and Nakajima had the worst season of his Super Formula career, 12th in the championship after his previous worst finish was sixth.

It is not clear how the 2019-20 offseason game of musical chairs will shake out. Yamamoto got to run in Friday practice at the Japanese Grand Prix for Toro Rosso but nothing points to him having a fair shake at Formula One. Cassidy seems set in Japan. There is not another standout Formula One hopeful who is looking for a stopgap year in Japan. I think the 2020 grid could look very similar to the 2019 grid.