Reason For Optimism Part Three: Things Can Wait

Patience is going to be key over this indefinite period of quarantine.

We do not know when the curve will be flatten and reach a point where we do not have to worry about another spike upward that could overwhelm the health care system and put many people in danger of not getting the necessary treatment of the COVID-19 virus but also other health issues and medical emergencies.

The key will be patience in all aspects of life but, stepping back for a second and thinking about motorsports, patience will not only have to apply to 2020 but the next few years.

Let's not fool ourselves that once races return everything will be cleared up. Let's not act like when things restart there will not be another hiccup or bump in the road. Let's not act like once the calendar flips to 2021 this is all over. None of that is true. We could return to racing in May and then two months later have an event be postponed or cancelled because of another outbreak. This could rear its ugly head in October or November and be the deathblow for many 2020 seasons and it could carry over into the next year and we could be repeating the same process 365 days from now.

None of us want that but it is a possibility. It might be a slim possibility but it is still out there and we have to accept that it could happen.

Motorsports series are not only having 2020 plans kicked in the gut but this is going to be having lingering affects over 2021 and 2022.

IndyCar was making plans for a new engine and new chassis in 2022. NASCAR was planning on having a new generation of car next year. Formula One was going to have a regulation change for next year and a change to the financial payout. IMSA and the FIA World Endurance Championship had a plan on LMP1/DPI convergence. On top of that all these series had plans for the schedule and other aspects of the series. That is going to take a hit.

NASCAR was planning on introducing a new generation of car in 2021. That might have to wait until 2022. Races aren't the only things on the back-burner. Tests for the new car have also been cancelled and while NASCAR could get back to work in the middle of May it has lost two months of testing. There is still a lot of time between then and 2021 but when it comes to a new formula it should not be rushed.

When NASCAR rolled out the Car of Tomorrow in 2007 it did it slowly. Some races used the COT but a good chunk of them relied on the predecessor before the COT took over for the entire 2008 season. NASCAR could do that again but I do not get the sense people want to see a season with split formulas and I think NASCAR wants a clean change and start with the next generation car. Could this new car wait until 2022? It might have to wait because there are a lot of unknowns for the rest of 2020 and the teams could use a break heading into 2021. It would be a relief if the teams knew this offseason was not going to include having to learn a new car.

IndyCar is in a similar boat, though its plans for a new chassis and new engine formula were scheduled for the 2022 seasons this delay could mean the series has to put that on hold until 2023. It has to be tough to persuade any new manufactures to join a series during a global pandemic. I am sure the hope was to have any new manufactures announced by the end of the 2020 season, which allows them all of 2021 to develop an engine and get ready for 2022. That is lost. I am not sure how any manufacture could commit to a new series with the uncertainty that hangs around the economy during this time period. We got to get through 2020 and most of 2021 before any manufacture makes a commitment to a new motorsports project. No manufacture is going to roll the dice, take a multi-million dollar gamble on IndyCar and then have the floor fallout from underneath them and find themselves in a difficult position of having to layoff thousands of workers. Stability is necessary and we are not entering stable times.

Formula One had a new batch of regulations set for 2021 along with 18-inch tires. We can hold off on new regulations for 2021 and keep the status quo from 2020 if it saves the teams. We can hold off on the larger tires as well. If anything, Formula One should save the teams from themselves and instead of developing new cars for 2021 the series should say the 2020 cars will be the 2021 cars with new regulations coming for 2022. This is really a period where the teams have to be saved from themselves because sponsorship and manufacture support could dry up quickly over the next few months.

The FIA World Endurance Championship was hoping to have the hypercar class introduced for the start of the 2020-21 season. After the announcement of convergence between the ACO and IMSA in January, the LMDh class was planned to make its debut in the middle of 2021. There were already a lot of issues with sports car racing's top classes with Aston Martin postponing its hypercar effort and Toyota and ByKolles being the only commitments for hypercar next season, which means only Toyota being committed for hypercar next season, but this just creates a larger mess.

Scheduling is another thing that has to be put aside for a moment. NASCAR had planned to get out the 2021 schedule out by April 1st. The 2020 schedule isn't even going to be finalized by April 1st. Any potential new races are going to have to wait. Any IndyCar/NASCAR doubleheader should probably be scrapped until 2022. IndyCar has to make sure its cancelled races, St. Petersburg, Barber, Austin and Long Beach, will all be able to return for 2021. The same goes for Formula One with Australia, Bahrain, Vietnam and China and there could be more races added to that list.

These are going to be longer waits than anyone wants. I know NASCAR fans were ready for a new car and hoping to see some new tracks on the schedule for 2021. I know IndyCar fans were ready for more manufactures coming into the series and the introduction of hybrid components would bring a few more makes to the table to compete with Honda and Chevrolet. I know Formula One fans were ready for new regulations that would hopefully close the gap between the top three teams and the other seven teams on the grid. I know sports car fans were ready for convergence and the next generation of prototype racing. However, while 2020 appeared to be the final year of status quo, we might need to accept that we are going to have to endure one more year of everything in 2021.

We do not have a choice in this matter and after so many sudden and unplanned changes the best response is going to be to find stability for a little bit before changing again. There is too much hanging over motorsports right now that to go away from something that is working, even if it is not beloved, would not be the right choice. I hope all the big wigs running these series understands that. I hope team owners and manufacture executives understand that.

Fans have to understand that as well. Everything has been upended in the last week. This isn't going to be a quick switch back to normalcy. It seems repercussions from this stoppage will be felt for the rest of 2020 and likely into 2021. It could be felt for longer than that. If we need to spend another season running the same regulations then we have to accept it. It is going to be a tough times for teams, drivers and series and if it makes more sense to push any changes to the cars or schedule back then the changes should wait.

We can wait. We have to wait. Stability is necessary and no additional risks should be taken. There is nothing wrong in waiting another year. These changes, these new eras will get here eventually. There is no need to rush into it.

(Update: All ten Formula One teams and the FIA have agreed to delay the introduction of new technical regulations until the 2022 season)