Thursday, April 23, 2020

Possible 2020 IndyCar Milestones

We are not going to be racing for at least another month and a half, but we should use this time to keep an eye on the possibilities once motorsports return.

There are plenty of little things that happen in a motorsports season that we do not prepare for. Great accomplishments do not necessarily get the attention they deserve. Things happen fast and when one race finishes, we are looking to the next one. Understandably, we wrap ourselves up in the moment and watch closely to the championship races, but we fail appreciating the little things happening simultaneously.

After scouring over the record book, I have found ten milestones we could see in the 2020 IndyCar season. A few of these are big deals and would not be ignored. A few of these are more inside baseball but are significant.

18th Season with a Victory
Driver: Scott Dixon
Current Situation: On 17 seasons, would tie A.J. Foyt's record
We are going to start with the top driver in IndyCar today, Scott Dixon and one victory puts Dixon in extraordinary company again. Dixon has won a race in 17 seasons and he already holds the record with 15 consecutive seasons with a victory. One victory in 2020 will not only extend his consecutive season record but tie him with A.J. Foyt for the most seasons with one victory.

Dixon turns 40 years old later this year but there are plenty of years left in his career. Two more seasons with a victory will give the New Zealander another record and it feels rather inevitable. It would be an incredible record showing maintained success over a lengthy period of time. This is supposed to be Dixon's 20 season and in the 19 prior he has won in all but two of them (2002 and 2004 in case you are wondering). It is staggering and Dixon is already on 46 victories and there is a chance he could hit the 50-mark in 2020. If he doesn't do it in 2020, then 2021. Once he gets there, he will be in pouncing distance of Mario Andretti for second all-time.

Foyt's all-time record of 67 victories seems safe but many of them are under threat of Dixon or are already his.

Most Different Tracks Won at in a Career
Driver: Scott Dixon
Current Situation: On 23 tracks, needs 27 for all-time record
We are going to stay in the Dixon camp because he is Scott Dixon.

This a stretch because it requires at least four victories at four tracks Dixon has not won at yet in his IndyCar career. One issue is there are not a lot of tracks left where Dixon has yet to score a victory. The good news is there are enough tracks remaining where this record is achievable, even after all the revisions.

Dixon has yet to win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, Iowa, Gateway, Portland and Laguna Seca and if St. Petersburg is rescheduled that is another possibility for Dixon.

Mario Andretti currently holds the record at 26 tracks and Dario Franchitti is second at 24 tracks.

This record shows versatility. It also shows schedule volatility but that is not Dixon's fault. Andretti's career had plenty of one-off venues. Remember, he ran during an era where IndyCar had short stays at Mont-Tremblant, Indianapolis Raceway Park's road course, Pacific Raceways, Hanford, Brainerd and Continental Divide Raceway. Add to it dirt tracks were a main part of the championship during Andretti's career and that is another lot of tracks Andretti got to race at. Substitute dirt tracks for street courses and the eras aren't so different after all.

6,000 Laps Led
Driver: Scott Dixon
Current Situation: Needs 398 laps led, would become fifth to reach milestone
One more for Dixon and 6,000 laps led puts him in rarefied air.

Mario Andretti, Michael Andretti, A.J. Foyt and Hélio Castroneves.

That is it. That is the list of drivers with 6,000 laps led in a career.

Dixon is currently sixth all-time, 200 laps behind Al Unser for fifth but he could conceivably surpass Castroneves, as the Brazilian sits on 6,037 laps led.

This will require a season we have not seen from Dixon in quite some time. He has not led at 398 laps in a season since he led 458 laps in 2012. Dixon has only led 400 or more laps in a season four times in his career. It is not impossible but it could be slightly out of reach for 2020.

Most Consecutive Finishes
Driver: Alexander Rossi
Current Situation: On 42 consecutive finishes, needs 51 for all-time record
Rossi has come into IndyCar and been a model of consistency. He has won a race in every season. He has averaged a starting position and finishing position under ten in each of the last three seasons. He has completed at least 1,900 laps in all four seasons. Since joining IndyCar in 2016, Rossi has completed the fifth most laps, only Simon Pagenaud, Josef Newgarden, Scott Dixon and Marco Andretti have completed more.

For the last two seasons, Rossi has taken the checkered flag at every race, even last year's Pocono debacle. If that race had gone the distance and not been shortened because of rain, perhaps this streak would have ended before even reaching 40 but here we are with the record being feasible.

He has completed every race since Road America 2017. His last retirement was Texas that year.

What is in Rossi's way of achieving this record? The 2020 season is scheduled to begin at Texas then  Road America before the unknown in Richmond. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis round four before Toronto and a doubleheader at Iowa. He can tie the record at Mid-Ohio. He would break the record at the Indianapolis 500.

Who holds this record? Danica Patrick. She took the checkered flag at 50 consecutive races from Long Beach 2009 to Kentucky 2011.

First 1-2-3-4-5 Finish for a team in IndyCar History
Team: Andretti Autosport
Current Situation: Only one 1-2-3-4 finish for a team in IndyCar history, Andretti Green Racing at St. Petersburg in 2005
With the expansion of Andretti Autosport to a five-car operation thanks to the absorption of Harding Steinbrenner Racing the team will have a chance to make IndyCar history 15 years after making IndyCar history.

Fifteen years ago, Dan Wheldon led an Andretti Green Racing 1-2-3-4 finish ahead of Tony Kanaan, Dario Franchitti and Bryan Herta. It is has not been matched since. In 2020, Andretti Autosport can better that by one finisher.

It will be difficult. It needs Alexander Rossi, Colton Herta, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Marco Andretti and Zach Veach to all finish in the top five. The team does have James Hinchcliffe scheduled for three races so there will be a couple instances when Andretti Autosport will have one mulligan at achieving the top five sweep.

Rossi, Herta and Hunter-Reay will be in top five position. Andretti has three top five finishes over the last three seasons. Veach has two career top five finishes and his best finish last year was seventh. Hinchcliffe had one top five finish last year, a third at Iowa. A lot of things will have to go in Andretti Autosport's favor to sweep the top five but it remains possible.

40 Career Victories
Driver: Will Power
Current Situation: On 37 victories, would become fifth driver to reach milestone
While Dixon is approaching the half-century mark in victories and could end up second all-time, he is not the only one coming up on a victory-related milestone. Power could join Foyt, Andretti, Dixon and Michael Andretti as the only drivers with at least 40 career victories.

We really do not talk about victory milestones in motorsports in general but in IndyCar specifically as well. It does not sound like a big number but only four drivers have reached 40 victories. That is an exclusive club. Eras are different and there were drivers who did not race in seasons where there were more than ten races. Based on the IndyCar record book, Wilbur Shaw only has six career victories, three of which are the Indianapolis 500. Parnelli Jones only has six career victories but his career was only eight seasons and he was part-time in four of those years. The victories page of the record book does not necessarily paint the clearest picture of the all-time greats.

With all that said, all the drivers at the top in victories are no slouches and 40 victories is a big deal. It should be noted tied with Power on 37 victories is Sébastien Bourdais. Unfortunately for Bourdais, he was scheduled for four races this year, two have been cancelled (Barber and Long Beach) and we do not know if St. Petersburg will be rescheduled. There is a chance Bourdais could also reach the 40-victory mark but he will need at least one more start and then have to be perfect.

Most Consecutive Indianapolis 500s Led
Driver: Will Power
Current Situation: On seven, needs eight for all-time record
The Indianapolis 500 has been run 103 times and anytime you can set an event record it is a notable achievement.

Power has become one of the best oval drivers in IndyCar and he has also become one of the best drivers in 500-mile races. Power has won a 500-mile race in four consecutive seasons. Last year's Pocono race was rain-shortened but it was scheduled for 500 miles and no one is discrediting Johnny Rutherford's 1976 Indianapolis 500 victory or Dario Franchitti's 2007 Indianapolis 500 victory for being rain-shortened. Still, five victories, tied with Johnny Rutherford and only A.J. Foyt, Rick Mears, Al Unser and Bobby Unser have more.

When it comes to the Indianapolis 500, Power is one lap led away from history. Rick Mears became the first driver to lead six consecutive Indianapolis 500s in 1984, breaking a tie with Rex Mays, Mauri Rose and Bobby Unser on five consecutive Indianapolis 500s led. Mears' record stood until Tony Kanaan led lap 94 in 2008, giving Kanaan seven consecutive Indianapolis 500s led.

Since Kanaan broke the record, he matched it, leading at least one lap from 2012 to 2018. In 2013, Power began his streak and has led 137 laps over the seven years. Eight consecutive Indianapolis 500s led would only add to the lore of William Steven Power, a man approaching 40 career victories, already has an Indianapolis 500 triumph and one of the greatest qualifiers in IndyCar history.

Three Consecutive Seasons with Most Laps Led
Driver: Josef Newgarden
Current Situation: Newgarden has led the most laps the last two seasons, would become the sixth driver to lead the most laps in three consecutive seasons since 1947
Over the latter half of last decade, we saw the rise of Josef Newgarden as one of IndyCar's best drivers and the one thing that has stood out to me is Newgarden's ability to lead laps.

After leading only 21 laps in his first three seasons, he has led at least 313 laps in each of his last five seasons. Since 2015, Newgarden has led 2,023 laps. The next closest driver is Will Power at 1,477 laps led. Newgarden has led IndyCar in laps led in three of those five seasons, including the last two seasons. In the other two seasons, he was second in laps led and third in laps led.

It is easy to finish as the top lap leader when you lead 282, 245 and 229 laps in three of your last four Iowa starts. Heck, Newgarden's 245 laps led last year at Iowa would have been good enough for second alone last year, only 23 laps behind what Simon Pagenaud led the entire season.

However, leading the most laps for three consecutive seasons is not something that happens often and it is an esteemed list of drivers to accomplish it.

Newgarden would become the first driver to lead IndyCar in laps led for three consecutive seasons since Alex Zanardi from 1996-98. The first four occurrences were Rodger Ward from 1957-60, A.J. Foyt 1963-65, Bobby Unser 1971-74 and Michael Andretti 1990-92. That is a list you want to be on and Newgarden is primed to join it.

Youngest Indianapolis 500 Winner
Drivers: Colton Herta, Patricio O'Ward, Rinus VeeKay
Current Situation: Troy Ruttman holds the record at 22 years and 80 days old
This would be a big deal but I think we need to mention it because for the next three or so year's Troy Ruttman's record runs the risk of being usurped and in some cases obliterated.

We have had a keen eye on the youngest Indianapolis 500 winner record ever since Marco Andretti appeared on the scene and was about 150 yards from making history as a rookie. Since Andretti, we have seen Graham Rahal, Sebastián Saavedra, Mario Moraes, Carlos Muñoz, Sage Karam, Matheus Leist and Zachary Claman De Melo among others have a shot at this record and not seen glory. This year at least three names will have a shot.

Colton Herta is the obvious one and his first attempt at the record ended after 7.5 miles with a broken gearbox. Patricio O'Ward's first crack at it ended bumped from the grid with Carlin. Rinus VeeKay is the newcomer, wet behind the ears.

On August 23, 2020, Herta will be 20 years and 147 days old. O'Ward will be 21 years and 110 days old. VeeKay will be 20 years and 348 days old. All three drivers will have at least one more bite at the apple in 2021 but 2021 will be the final shot for shots for O'Ward and VeeKay. Herta will have a finale shot in 2022.

There is one name that you might be thinking would have a shot at this record and that is Santino Ferrucci. If the Indianapolis 500 was run on its scheduled date of May 24, Ferrucci would be 21 years and 360 days old. However, since the race was kicked back to August 23, Ferrucci will be 22 years and 85 days old, five days older than the record. Second youngest wouldn't be that bad but it does not have the same ring.

Four Decades with a Victory
Drivers: Tony Kanaan
Current Situation: Kanaan has won a race in three decades. Only driver to win in four decades is Mario Andretti
This one is a stretch because Kanaan will not be full-time, he will be driving for A.J. Foyt Racing and his last two seasons have seen significant steps back but this is a historical one to be put into perspective.

Only Mario Andretti has won an IndyCar race in four different decades. That's it. That is the list. Fourteen other drivers have won a race in three decades but only Andretti has won in four. A.J. Foyt raced until 1992 but his last victory was in 1981. Gordon Johncock also raced until 1992, his last victory was in 1983. Al Unser's career made it to 1993 but his final victory was his fourth Indianapolis 500 victory in 1987. Many have tried, only one has succeeded.

This brings us to our latest challenger, Tony Kanaan.

This achievement involves a bit of fortune. Kanaan's career gets started in the late 1990s. He won his first race in 1999 at Michigan after Max Papis ran out of fuel and with a charging Juan Pablo Montoya closing on Kanaan. Kanaan held off Montoya by 0.032 seconds. If Papis had another half-gallon of fuel or if Montoya was 0.033 seconds quicker or if the start/finish line was 20-feet further down the track, Kanaan only has a victory in two decades.

Take Hélio Castroneves as an example. Castroneves won a race in only two decades but he raced in the 1990s and came close to a few victories, however, he does not get his maiden triumph until 2000.

Take Colton Herta as another example. Herta won a race last year. If he wins a race this year he will have won a race in two different decades and it only took him two years for such an achievement. Castroneves had to wait an entire decade to complete the same achievement.

Some of this is fortune but another part of it is longevity and talent.

We all know Mario Andretti is one of the greatest drivers of all-time with a career spanning the entire life of a baby boomer. While Kanaan's career started at the right time for him to be positioned for such an achievement, he has been a constant driver from more than 20 years. He was one of the top drivers in the early 2000s and it took him a while but he finally got his Indianapolis 500 glory in the early 2010s.

This is the twilight of Kanaan's career. Even he has admitted his time is almost up and he is winding down what has been a beautiful career. He might not have been shots at this but if anyone could pull off an Indianapolis stunner in his mid-40s it is Kanaan.

There is one other driver you should keep an eye on for this record and he was mentioned above... Juan Pablo Montoya. Like Kanaan, his career started at the right time, he dominated 1999 and then won a few times in 2000 and just like that in two years he had won in two different decades. Flash-forward to 2014, over a decade since he was last in an IndyCar and Montoya returns and picks up a victory at Pocono with a few more victories, including another at Indianapolis, and he has won in three different decades.

Montoya has been sidelined from IndyCar the past two seasons but the itch is still there. If the man can return after 14 years away and score a handful of victories, who is to say he could not return in 2021 or 2022 and pull into victory lane a few more times at the age of 46 or 47. It is Montoya. He is bound to re-write the record book.