It took many iterations of the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series calendar to get to this point. Some races fell away, a few others were moved and expanded. Doubleheaders popped up at venues that otherwise would have hosted one IndyCar race. Indianapolis Motor Speedway got a third event. The season opener has become the season finale.
And we aren't out of the woods yet. We could have more calendar shakeups. Nothing is set in concrete. A few events could be cancelled, and IndyCar could be left with a shorter schedule or hustling to find two or three substitute venues.
With all these changes, the fictional league format I have devised for IndyCar has seen revisions, but more are necessary. Instead of making revision after revision when IndyCar was in the midst of its own revisions, I decided to do one large revision reeal instead of chasing it and doing three or four smaller ones. After all, this is a fictional, hypothetical thing. You cannot spend too much time on the hypothetical. After setting this season in March, and then doing the first revision in April, waiting until July after some races were on the board made the most sense.
The biggest problem is the schedule. With seven races from the original schedule cancelled and only four events added to boost the 2020 calendar to 14 races, the original plan did not work. It was three weeks short.
In the first revision, I included Indianapolis 500 qualifying to fill out a week of head-to-head matchups. The problem was Richmond and Toronto were both still scheduled to happen at that time and now will not.
What to do?
Since events are hard to come by and we are not sure what will actually happen, the best thing to do was to include what I could.
I decided Texas qualifying would count for week one. It was not ideal but it is straight-forward, everyone gets a lap and whoever qualifies best out of that matchup wins.
The Texas race, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Road America doubleheader, Iowa doubleheader, Mid-Ohio, Indianapolis 500 qualifying, Indianapolis 500, Gateway, Portland and Laguna Seca doubleheader rounded out the 14-week schedule.
Instead of having an eight-team playoff, that has been paired down to a four-team playoff with the top two from each conference advancing. Only the bottom from each conference will be relegated and the only the top two from league two will be promoted.
Where are we after seven weeks?
League One Results:
Week 1 (TEXAS QUALIFYING):
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (1 to 20)
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (2 to 13)
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (6 to 16)
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR (22 to 7)
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (3 to 11)
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (8 to 10)
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP (9 to 18)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (4 to 23)
Week 2 (TEXAS):
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR (3 to 5)
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP (1 to 9)
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (13 to 17)
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (24 to 23)
#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt (2 to 10)
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (15 to 14)
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (20 to 21)
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (8 to 12)
Week 3 (GPOI):
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (7 to 19)
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (1 to 2)
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (20 to 26)
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (10 to 12)
#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP (3 to 8)
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (25 to 9)
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti (15 to 22)
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (13 to 21)
Week 4 (ROAD AMERICA):
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (14 to 7)
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske (1 to 2)
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (9 to 15)
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (3 to 21)
#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (6 to 12)
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (19 to 18)
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (4 to 22)
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt (15 to 20)
Week 5 (ROAD AMERICA):
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (9 to 8)
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne (12 to 7)
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR (11 to 18)
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (23 to 21)
#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti (13 to 22)
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (3 to 2)
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt (1 to 20)
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti (6 to 19)
Week 6 (IOWA):
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske (5 to 21)
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 10)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (12 to 15)
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP (11 to 3)
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (1 to 14)
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti (6 to 16)
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt (11 to 18)
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti (4 to 22)
Week 7 (IOWA):
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi (1 to 5)
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 21)
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (3 to 14)
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP (23 to 6)
#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti (4 to 8)
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti (15 to 22)
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP (18 to 12)
#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti (11 to 10)
Conference 1 standings:
#1 Penske 5-2
#9 Ganassi 5-2
#12 Penske 5-2
#15 RLLR 4-3
#55 Coyne 3-4
#30 RLLR 3-4
#7 AMSP 3-4
#20 ECR 0-7
Conference 2 standings:
#22 Penske 6-1
#10 Ganassi 6-1
#28 Andretti 4-3
#18 Coyne 4-3
#5 AMSP 3-4
#27 Andretti 2-5
#98 Andretti 2-5
#14 Foyt 0-7
What do the results tell us?
Felix Rosenqvist is the luckiest man on the grid.
Despite having one top ten finish, Rosenqvist has lost only one matchup. He topped Patricio O'Ward in Texas qualifying. In the Texas race, he was against Santino Ferrucci. Ferrucci retired just before Rosenqvist's accident, giving Rosenqvist a victory by a position.
At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Rosenqvist was against Marco Andretti and his 15th over Andretti's 22nd. In the first Road America race, it was Rosenqvist against Alexander Rossi. Rosenqvist had mechanical issues, but Rossi had an off on lap one and then made contact with Max Chilton and dropped him to 19th, a spot behind Rosenqvist.
Rosenqvist was 4-0 and his best result was ninth in Texas qualifying. Then he won at Road America and it was all gravy against Dalton Kellett. He lost to Simon Pagenaud in the first Iowa race, but won against Ryan Hunter-Reay in the second Iowa race despite finishing 15th, because Hunter-Reay spun and was 22nd.
Scott Dixon has been on the money. Dixon's victories at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the first Road America race was against Graham Rahal and Will Power, the drivers who finished runner-up in those respective races. Dixon's losses are to Álex Palou in the second Road America race and to Josef Newgarden, who won the second Iowa race.
I think this puts into perspective the Andretti Autosport struggles.
Ryan Hunter-Reay started 4-0 against Ferrucci, O'Ward, Kellett and Andretti. He lost to Pagenaud, Rossi and Rosenqvist.
Rossi started 1-4 with a win over Tony Kanaan in Texas qualifying, but lost to Andretti, Ferrucci, Rosenqvist and O'Ward in succession. He bounced back with a win over Hunter-Reay but then lost to Pagenaud. Rossi has been in the top ten in four of seven week but is only 2-2 in those weeks.
Andretti split the Texas events, losing to Pagenaud in qualifying, but besting Rossi in the race. He lost the next four to Rosenqvist, Hunter-Reay, Ferrucci and O'Ward, before beating Kanaan in the second Iowa race by a position.
Coincidentally, the two teams in league one that are split between multiple drivers are both 0-7.
The #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet has not found luck with either Ed Carpenter or Conor Daly. In Carpenter's four oval weeks, he lost to Dixon in Texas qualifying, lost to Newgarden in the race despite finishing fifth, lost by three spots to Rahal in the first Iowa race despite Rahal finishing 12th and then he was the first car out in race two from Iowa.
Daly lost out to Takuma Sato by two spots at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, crashed out of the first Road America race as Palou finished third, and in the second race he was 18th with Will Power in 11th.
The #14 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet lost out to Rossi in Texas qualifying by two spots and then Kanaan was paired with eventually runner-up Simon Pagenaud in the race. At Iowa, Kanaan was 18th in race one and Palou was 11th, and Kanaan lost out to Andretti by a spot in race two and Kanaan was ahead of Andretti for most of that final stint before Andretti got him late.
Dalton Kellett's three finishes have been 21st, 20th and 20th and in those races he was paired with Hunter-Reay (13th), O'Ward (15th) and Rosenqvist (1st) respectively.
What does the playoff picture look like?
In conference one, it is a three-way tie at the top between Dixon, Newgarden and Power. Head-to-head, Dixon beat Power at the IMS road course and Newgarden beat both Power and Dixon at Iowa.
Rahal is one game out with Palou, Sato and Oliver Askew all two out. It is still up for grabs.
Conference two is more of a runaway. Pagenaud and Rosenqvist are 6-1 and each have a two-game cushion over Ferrucci and Hunter-Reay. O'Ward is three out, Rossi and Andretti are four out.
Is the relegation battle already over?
I think it is in conference one. I think it is asking a lot to overcome a three-game gap with half the season to go, especially when Daly is paired with Dixon for Mid-Ohio, Carpenter has Newgarden for Indianapolis 500 qualifying and Daly has Power at Portland.
In conference two, I think the #14 Foyt entry has a shot because Marco Andretti hasn't been that good and if wasn't for a late pass, the two entries would be 1-6 each with the #14 Foyt ahead of the #98 Andretti based on head-to-head. The only problem is I do not feel comfortable with Dalton Kellett, who is scheduled for three of the final seven events. Kellett is against Rossi for Mid-Ohio and Ferrucci and Andretti at Laguna Seca. It very well could come down to Kellett vs. Andretti in that second Laguna Seca race.
League Two Results:
Week 1:
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR (14 to 21)
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR (24 to 17)
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (19 to 12)
Week 2:
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR (7 to 19)
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR (22 to 16)
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 11)
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
Week 3:
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt (5 to 18)
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR (14 to 17)
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (6 to 12)
Week 4:
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt (5 to 11)
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (13 to 16)
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (17 to 23)
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (Walkover)
Week 5:
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin (5 to 15)
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR (16 to 4)
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR (10 to 17)
Week 6:
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti (19 to 23)
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin (20 to 8)
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR (17 to 9)
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (Walkover)
Week 7:
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR (17 to 19)
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin (20 to 13)
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR (7 to 9)
League Two standings:
#88 AHSR 6-1
#8 Ganassi 5-2
#59 Carlin 4-3
#21 ECR 4-3
#26 Andretti 3-4
#4 Foyt 3-4
#60 MSR 3-4
#31 Carlin 0-7
The schedule being use was drafted back in April or May before one of the final schedule revisions. At that time, we all thought Carlin would have two cars. When the #31 entry was not at Texas and the team made it sound like a one-off, I treated it as such. Since the car has not been full-time, I figured I would be easier for everyone to get a free victory when against the absent Carlin entry.
I could have erased it and made it a bye-week for everyone, but I am keeping the door open in case the car returns for a few races. That is unlikely, but if it does it would be better to have an extra matchup than have a vacancy.
There is no harm if the #31 Carlin does not appear. It is in league two, it cannot be relegated any further and if it is coming back for 2021 then it resumes as it was and if it doesn't reappear, we will realign the leagues and entries like we did for 2020. See the addition of the #8 Ganassi entry and the #60 Meyer Shank Racing entry.
Is the promotion battle over?
No. Remember last year how strong Colton Herta started? Despite that start, Herta was not promoted. He had too many retirements and that allowed the #14 Foyt entry and the #18 Coyne entry to be promoted while the car that won two races was left in the lower league.
There is a lot of time left and a two-game lead over third is not a lot. Daly is a strong driver in the #59 Carlin Chevrolet but he has only one event left. With Max Chilton scheduled to run the Indianapolis 500, Daly's only other time in the #59 Carlin Chevrolet is Gateway. Daly is 3-1 in the #59 this year and Chilton is 1-2. Chilton has to be superb to get the #59 Carlin entry up to league one. Chilton will get one break as the #59 Carlin entry is against the #31 Carlin entry for the Indianapolis 500. He couldn't possibly screw that up, could he?
Carlin aside, it is too tight to rule anyone out. Could Charlie Kimball and Jack Harvey get hot late? Absolutely. Could Ericsson hit a rough patch? You bet. It would be silly to rule any of it out.
Remaining Schedule
League One
Week 8 (MID-OHIO):
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne
Week 9 (“500” QUALIFYING):
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne
#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
Week 10 (INDIANAPOLIS 500):
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR
#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
Week 11 (GATEWAY):
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR
#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt
Week 12 (PORTLAND):
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP
#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti
Week 13 (LAGUNA SECA):
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti
Week 14 (LAGUNA SECA):
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP
#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP
#14 Foyt vs. #98 AndrettiLeague Two
Week 8:
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt
Week 9:
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin
Week 10:
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR
Week 11:
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR
Week 12:
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR
Week 13:
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR
Week 14:
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSRMatchups to Watch
League One:
Mid-Ohio: Rosenqvist vs. O'Ward
Indianapolis 500 Qualifying: Newgarden vs. Carpenter, Pagenaud vs. Kanaan
Indianapolis 500: Rossi vs. Ferrucci, Hunter-Reay vs. Kanaan
Gateway: Dixon vs. Power, Rossi vs. Rosenqvist, O'Ward vs. Kanaan
Portland: Power vs. Daly
Laguna Seca I: Newgarden vs. Power, Pagenaud vs. Rosenqvist, Rossi vs. Hunter-Reay
Laguna Seca II: Newgarden vs. Dixon, Pagenaud vs. Rossi, Daly vs. Askew, Kellett vs. Andretti
League Two:
Mid-Ohio: Herta vs. Harvey
Indianapolis 500 Qualifying: Herta vs. Ericsson, Veach vs. Kimball
Indianapolis 500: Veach vs. Harvey, VeeKay vs. Kimball
Gateway: Daly vs. Harvey, Herta vs. Kimball
Portland: Kimball vs. Harvey
Laguna Seca I: Herta vs. Veach, Kimball vs. Ericsson
Laguna Seca II: Ericsson vs. Harvey
My plan is to do an update in September before the final three regular season rounds and then to do one before the Harvest Grand Prix at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the start of the playoffs. Hopefully scheduling changes are avoided between now and then.
