What did we miss? Lewis Hamilton still does not have a contract for the 2021 Formula One season. Long Beach has moved from April to September. Formula E's season opener has been postponed. Jenson Button's team is going to field an entry in this Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters season. Teams and drivers are committing to the Indy Lights' season. Austin Dillon is going to drive an LMP2 car at the 24 Hours of Daytona. Oliver Askew is a silver-rated driver. The Dakar Rally began. There is a lot to look forward to this year and we will set some expectations today. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.
What Should Our 2021 Expectations Be?
After an unthinkable 2020, we are in a New Year hoping for better. However, hanging a new set of 12 pages on the refrigerator is not going make all the problems of the last year disappear. Normal doesn't return that easily.
The virus doesn't give a damn about the calendar. It doesn't care that it has been nearly 300 days since the world shut down, the number of lives lost and every life upended. It is not going to end in a snap. We don't get to wash our hands of this and start anew. We are going to continue living through restrictions and inconveniences for the foreseeable future.
The collective hope is over each month of 2021 we move toward something better and at some point during this year be closer to what we consider normal. That is not going to happen overnight and, after watching where the chips have fallen, it is not going to happen in the next four or five months either. We have spent the last ten months waiting and watching the world shut down, watching events be cancelled or limited to few or no spectators at all. We know the timeline. We know when events can open up. We know where we are at and it is the worst it has been.
However, a vaccine gives us a reason for optimism. As distribution increases, more will open up, the closer we come to normal again. It will come in small steps.
Every series is going to have similar experiences when it comes to events, travel and scheduling. There will also be circumstances that are specific to each series. With 361 days ahead of us and what will seem like just as many races, I think we need to set our expectations for this year now, knowing the pandemic is going to continue for a portion of this year and with a year of experience under our belts.
What will every series experience?
We are still going to have events behind closed doors in 2021. How many events? Hopefully, fewer than we probably think.
We were already seeing numerous races with some spectators allowed on the grounds. None have allowed a full house, but the final eight IndyCar races and 11 of 14 races in 2020 had spectators. Formula One had spectators at a handful of the races over the final half of the season. Majority of the NASCAR races in the final half of the season had spectators. There are going to be spectators at some of these events early in the year, but we are still far away from full capacity crowds.
Though some races are allowing spectators, there are going to be others that are not allowed to happen due to local guidelines. We have already seen NASCAR move its Fontana race to the Daytona road course. IndyCar has moved Long Beach from the middle of April to the end of September, as has IMSA, and IMSA has also moved Laguna Seca to September.
Formula One lost the Vietnam Grand Prix due to corruption in Hanoi, but we are not sure how this global series will be able to take place especially with its first three races being scheduled in Australia, Bahrain and China. Formula E had three of its first four rounds delayed.
If enough events are delayed, we could see another year with races going deep into December or slightly truncated championships. We could see races made up on the fly at venues originally unscheduled.
Every series will also face competitors and teams catching the virus and being forced to miss races. We already saw it happen in almost every series. Fortunately, no one was out for an extending period of time. You had some people miss two races (Sergio Pérez and Valentino Rossi), but no one caught the long-haul version of covid-19 and ended up missing a month or more. Other than Porsche after Le Mans, we didn't see many outbreaks sideline an entry organization for a race and possibly alter the outcome of a championship.
What will IndyCar experience?
IndyCar made it through 2020 with a significantly altered schedule. The Indianapolis 500 was in August. There were five doubleheaders. The season ended at St. Petersburg in October.
We already know Long Beach has been moved to the season finale spot, though it will still be in September.
IndyCar events do need spectators for tracks to make money and many of these venues cannot skate by with a decreased crowd size. We already saw St. Petersburg have some spectators in October, so it would make sense if the March season opener at St. Petersburg would have some people on the ground. The first five races will likely have spectators, but the biggest question is the Indianapolis 500.
There could have been spectators at the 2020 Indianapolis 500 in August, but the plan was for quarter capacity. The only problem is quarter capacity at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is north of 80,000 people. There might be the room but in August it was unfathomable to bring together 80,000 people responsibly. Perhaps the Indianapolis 500 could have gotten away with 20,000, but the decision was to allow nobody through the gates.
Five months from the 105th Indianapolis 500 and no event in the United States has come close to 80,000 spectators. The Rose Bowl had 16,000 people this past weekend. Last year, we had NASCAR races with about 25,000 people at Bristol. Over the next couple of months, we will see how other events handle crowd sizes. There will be a Super Bowl in a month in Tampa Bay and the Daytona 500 is the week after that. Daytona has already said it will have reduced capacity. In March, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament should take place and it is believed the entire tournament will take place in the Indianapolis-area. Come April, baseball season will start.
I don't think we will see a full capacity Indianapolis 500 this year. I am not sure we will see half or quarter capacity. The Indianapolis 500 could be the first high-spectated event in 15 months, but I am not going to commit to that. I think 30,000 spectators is a realistic target. If things are looking really good in April and the start of May, maybe 60,000 or even 80,000 is practical. That is still hard to imagine at this time.
Indianapolis 500 crowd size aside, I don't anticipate much schedule shakeup. Road America, Mid-Ohio and Gateway hosted races during the pandemic. IMSA found a way to go to Laguna Seca last year. I am sure Portland will be good to go. Toronto is the biggest question mark because we are not sure how open the U.S.-Canada border will be.
What will NASCAR experience?
I don't want to say NASCAR is pandemic-proof, but despite a two-month delay it still fit in a 36-race Cup schedule, a 33-race Grand National Series schedule and 23 Truck races in 2020 and all three series ended on time.
NASCAR has enough racetracks that it can change the schedule on the dime. We have already seen it in the Fontana/Daytona road course situation. The tracks get a cut of the television money. They don't need to have a crowd to break even. Most of the tracks hosted a race during the pandemic. There isn't a track you have to worry on the 2021 calendar about until Sonoma in June.
If Sonoma cannot host a race, there are a host of Speedway Motorsports, Inc. tracks ready to pick up a race. Texas could get a second points race back and host it the week before its All-Star Race. Kentucky could return as a last-minute substitute. The teams could stay in Charlotte and run back-to-back oval races. We already saw NASCAR run midweek races and doubleheaders when necessary.
I think NASCAR will be fine. There will likely be fans at the first three races because they are all in Florida. I think there could still be a few races completely behind closed doors early in the season.
What will IMSA experience?
IMSA is somewhere between NASCAR and IndyCar.
One, NASCAR owns IMSA and while tracks don't get television money for hosting an IMSA race, we saw Daytona, Sebring, Road Atlanta and Charlotte all pick up races when needed. IMSA found a way to run at Laguna Seca last year. It had races at Road America, Mid-Ohio and Virginia International Raceway. There are questionable racetracks between Watkins Glen, Lime Rock and Mosport, but all those races are in the summer and hopefully conditions will allow those events to take place. Mosport depends on the U.S.-Canada border situation.
The border also factors in with competitors. Canadian-based Pfaff Motorsports had a reduced calendar last year because it had issues crossing the border between rounds. Canadian-based Multimatic runs the Mazda operation. Multimatic was able to run a full season last year without any notable hiccups in the Mazda program.
We also saw teams forced to step away during the pandemic. Paul Miller Racing missed a few races because Paul Miller's car dealerships were closed, and Miller could not justify competing while the dealerships were closed. Multiple LMP2 entries such as Era Motorsports, Starworks and DragonSpeed all reduced their programs because of the pandemic.
Porsche has already pulled its factory support from GT Le Mans. BMW has yet to announce its 2021 intentions and the rumor has been BMW might run only the endurance races. Mazda is down to one car for 2021 as is JDC-Miller Motorsports. The pandemic has already shaken the IMSA landscape with numerous entries forced to leave or cut back participation. That could continue into 2021.
What will Formula One experience?
The global roadshow known as Formula One will face greater hurdles because of international travel and different restrictions in place.
Australia has done a great job handling the virus, but all signs are pointing to the Australian Grand Prix being delayed. With ten teams and thousands of people coming from Europe, many of which are in countries seeing cases spike upward, that is what could prevent Australia from happening on schedule, even if the teams are quarantining beforehand. I am not sure how teams can quarantine properly while building and testing a car ahead of this season.
The concern is not just going to a country but traveling back as well.
There is a chance the first three Formula One races happen on time. If not, could Australia and/or China be pushed to the end of the season? I doubt we will see makeup events pop up the way they did last year. Perhaps Portimão or Mugello could fill in where Vietnam was supposed to be, but I don't think we will see three races pop up if we lose three. I think the calendar would adjust to 19 or 20 races.
What will the FIA World Endurance Championship experience?
The good news for the WEC is it is only a six-round championship spread out from the middle of March to the middle of November. There is a lot of space in there to make up events if necessary. Currently, there are no races in April, August and October. There is plenty of real estate if things get shaken up.
Half the championship is scheduled for races in Europe and Spa-Francorchamps and Le Mans each held rounds during the pandemic. Monza hosted a Formula One race and a GT World Challenge Europe round during the pandemic. Bahrain is the scheduled season finale on November 20, and it hosted the 2019-20 finale as well.
Will WEC be able to enter the United States for Sebring in March? And will the series be able to enter Japan for Fuji in September?
Sebring is the round most in doubt. If Sebring cannot happen, the expectation is Silverstone will come in as a last minute replace and host a round in April. Fuji is over nine months away and if the Summer Olympics do take place in Tokyo with about 10,000 athletes entering the country, and that figure does not include coaches and other support staff, I would expect they can figure out how to host a sports car race with at most 30 teams and maybe 2,000 people entering the country.
What will Formula E experience?
For a series that was supposed to start in a fortnight, Formula E is already facing the brunt of being a global championship during the third wave of a pandemic.
Mexico City and Sanya were both postponed in October. The season opener from Santiago was postponed in the last few weeks. The Saudi Arabia round scheduled for the final weekend of February is now the tentative season opener, but the rest of the schedule is provisional with Rome slated to be the next race on April 10.
Formula E's biggest issue is relying on street circuits and during a pandemic when it is not viable to close down public roads for a recreational event, especially if the city is under tight restrictions where most people should not leave their residency.
Berlin was able to step up and host six races last year because that round takes place at the Tempelhof Airport, which is not operational, and the grounds have basically become a park. I don't think Formula E wants to have one place host six races again. It has not fully cancelled Mexico City, Sanya and Santiago, but for a series that is typically run from winter into summer with a finale scheduled for the final week of July, I doubt the series is going to add those three rounds to August or September. We could be looking at Formula E completely shifting its calendar from a winter into spring and summer championship to a more traditional spring into autumn championship.
I expect more amendments to the Formula E season, whether that means rounds get canceled and more doubleheader weekends are introduced, or the series being forced to run at permanent facilities just to get races in.
What will MotoGP experience?
MotoGP will face all the same hurdles as all the other international series. It is going to have headaches traveling and facing all the different quarantine protocols and restrictions and there are a few rounds that could be in jeopardy off the top of the season.
The 2021 calendar begins with Qatar, Argentina and the United States, with all three rounds taking place between March 28 and April 18. The two rounds in the Americas take place on consecutive weekends. I think there is a way Qatar takes place. The other two rounds could be moved to the end of the schedule. When the pandemic first started back in March 2020, MotoGP immediately moved Argentina and United States to the end of the calendar after the Valencia finale. I think that might be the go-to move for the series again this year.
MotoGP has chunked its calendar nicely. After the first three races, the next 11 rounds are in Europe until the four-race Asia-Pacific swing in October with Valencia capping off the year in November. I think those are 11 rounds you can feel comfortable about taking place. Similar to WEC, hopefully come October travel to Japan, Thailand, Australia and Malaysia opens up. It is a very flexible calendar, one that is set up for fewer headaches should a problem arise.
Worst case scenario, if the Asia-Pacific rounds are not able to take place or the American rounds are not possible, MotoGP can add Portimão and Igora Drive in Russia or run doubleheaders at Aragón, Misano and Valencia and still have a healthy 17-18 round championship.
After last year, it is a dangerous thing to look ahead. Three hundred and 65 days ago, we had expectations for 2020, events we planned to attend, and we were ready for the familiar flow to the calendar that would take us back around to another New Year. Those expectations were wrong, but that doesn't mean we head into 2021 without any idea of what could happen down the road. We know what we are up against this year. We have been battling it for nearly ten months, but we take what we know and adjust our expectations accordingly.
Winners From the Weekend
You know the Dakar Rally started, but did you know...
Stage one winners from the Dakar Rally:
Bikes: Toby Price
Cars: Carlos Sainz
Trucks: Dmitry Sotnikov
Quads: Alexandre Giroud
Lightweight Vehicle Prototype (T3): Cristina Gutierrez
SSV Series (T4): Reinaldo Varela
Coming Up This Weekend
The Dakar Rally continues.
The Gulf 12 Hours will be held in Bahrain.
