Wednesday, March 24, 2021

2021 MotoGP Season Preview

After holding the championship that nobody wanted to win in 2020, MotoGP returns with a rather star-studded field for what hopes to be a 19-race championship. 

The 2021 season will have a high standard to match. There were nine winners across the 14 races. Five of those winners were first-time MotoGP winners. Customer teams won eight of 14 races. Four of the six manufactures won a race. Five of the manufactures had a representative in the top ten of the championship.

Much of the grid has been mixed up. The defending champion Suzuki is the only team with an unchanged lineup from the 2020 season. 

Provisional Schedule
MotoGP opens its 2021 season with a doubleheader in Qatar. The Losail International Circuit will host the Qatar Grand Prix on March 28 with the Grand Prix of Doha on Easter Sunday, April 4. 

Portugal will kick off the European portion of the calendar on April 18 ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix from Jerez on May 2. Le Mans and Mugello host rounds on May 16 and May 30 respectively. Barcelona rounds out a back-to-back with Mugello on June 6. 

Summer begins in Germany on June 20 with the Dutch TT scheduled for June 27. The inaugural round at the Kymi Ring and the first Finnish Grand Prix since 1981 is scheduled for July 11 and will bring MotoGP to its summer break. 

The first race back will be Austria on August 15 with the British Grand Prix from Silverstone following on August 29. The 12-race European leg will end with a back-to-back, first visiting Aragón on September 12 and Misano closing out summer on September 19. 

The Asia-Pacific swing will be a pair of back-to-backs. First will be Japan on October 3 ahead of Thailand on October 10. Phillip Island hosts the Australian Grand Prix on October 24 and Malaysia follows on October 31. Valencia is currently scheduled as the season finale on November 14.

There are two postponed rounds, the Argentine Grand Prix and Grand Prix of the Americas. The Indonesian Grand Prix at the new Mandalika street circuit remains as a reserve grand prix in case of further postponements. 

Team Suzuki Ecstar
Joan Mir: #36 Suzuki GSX-RR
What did he do in 2020: Mir won the MotoGP World Championship with 171 points. His only victory was the European Grand Prix from Valencia. He was on the podium seven times in 14 races, and he became the second premier class world champion to not win a pole position during a championship season. 

What to expect in 2021: Mir won the title through consistency last season while others proved to be quick for four or five races, but not a complete 14-race season. Suzuki did not show outstanding pace in testing. At no point was Suzuki firmly at the top of the charts and mixed up with the Ducatis or Yamahas. I don't think Mir will repeat and I am not sure he will crack the top five in the championship. He could slide back and yet maintain his consistency. It is a longer season, at least five races longer but could be as many as seven races longer. I think that could play into someone else's hands if Mir is only around fifth or sixth in those additional races.

Álex Rins: #42 Suzuki GSX-RR
What did he do in 2020: Rins was third in the world championship, 32 points behind his Suzuki teammate. Rins won the Aragón Grand Prix and he had three other podium finishes.

What to expect in 2021: Both Suzuki riders were pretty even in testing. They were pretty even last year with Mir coming out on top more times than Rins. I could see both these riders end up between fifth and seventh in the championship. Both could win a race or two, but I am not sure either can be on the podium at the same rate as last season.

Petronas Yamaha SRT
Franco Morbidelli: #21 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2020: Morbidelli was tied for the most MotoGP victories in 2020 with three, the San Marino and Rimini Grand Prix from Misano, the Teruel Grand Prix from Aragón and the Valencian Community Grand Prix. He had only two other podium finishes, and he retired from three races, leaving him 13 points behind Mir for the championship. 

What to expect in 2021: Morbidelli should be leading the Yamaha contingent and be competing with Maverick Viñales for the best in the manufactures' fold. At the higher speed tracks, Yamaha lost out. I think Morbidelli can maximize the tracks that suit Yamaha, but that might not be enough to overcome the deficit. He should be competing for a top five championship position. 

Valentino Rossi: #46 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2020: Rossi was 15th in the championship on 66 points. His only podium finish was in the second race of the season at Jerez. He missed the two Aragón races after contracting COVID-19. It was the first time Rossi finished outside the top ten of a championship in his grand prix racing career and he remains on 199 career premier class podium finishes.

What to expect in 2021: Last year was difficult for Rossi and he is 42 years old. Could he end up on the podium once and get to 200? Yes, but I expect he will be fourth of the four Yamahas and struggle to finish in the top ten of the championship.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Brad Binder: #33 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2020: Binder won the Czech Grand Prix, but he had only two other top five finishes the rest of the season and he retired from four races. This left the South African 11th in the championship on 87 points.

What to expect in 2021: KTM did draw much attention in testing. Binder was one of the slowest riders, but many believe testing does not tell the entire story. Results will improve enough to put him in the top ten of the championship, he should get a few podium finishes, but I think he will lose the KTM battle. 

Miguel Oliveira: #88 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2020: Oliveira won the Styrian Grand Prix on a final corner pass and he dominated his home grand prix, the Portuguese Grand Prix. However, two victories with only two other top five finishes, both fifth-place results, slotted him ninth in the championship on 125 points.

What to expect in 2021: Oliveira was the top KTM rider in testing and put the bike in the top ten regularly. I think he will lead the way for KTM in 2021. I am not sure he can match what Pol Espargaró did and end up in the top five of the championship, but he could come close, and he could pick up a few victories. 

Ducati Lenovo Team
Jack Miller: #43 Ducati Desmosedici GP21
What did he do in 2020: Miller was seventh in the championship, the top rider without a race victory, on 132 points. The Australian had four podium finishes, including a pair of runner-up results to close the season. 

What to expect in 2021: Miller topped testing, and many are penciling him in as one of the championship favorites. He probably should have won a race or two last year. Ducati should have done better last season. It has been almost five years since his lone MotoGP victory, a wet Dutch TT. That will change this year. He should have a career year in the top class. 

Francesco Bagnaia: #63 Ducati Desmosedici GP21
What did he do in 2020: Bagnaia broke his leg at Brno and missed three races. However, he returned with a runner-up finish at Misano. That was his only top five finish, and he was 16th in the championship on 47 points.

What to expect in 2021: Bagnaia had moments last year, but he didn't put together a full season and both his MotoGP seasons have been underwhelming. He is now on the factory Ducati and his results should be better, but I am not convinced he can match his teammate. He could end up outside the top ten of the championship again. 

Pramac Racing
Johann Zarco: #5 Ducati Desmosedici GP21
What did he do in 2020: Zarco's only podium finish was third at Brno from pole position. He scored 77 points, leaving him 13th in the championship.

What to expect in 2021: Zarco could challenge for a top ten championship finish. He had a few good days last season. I am not sure he can string together ten or 12 of those, but he could pick off a podium finish or two. 

Jorge Martín: #89 Ducati Desmosedici GP21
What did he do in 2020: Mártin was fifth the Moto2 championship with two victories and six podium finishes. Those results earned him 160 points, but he missed the two Misano rounds after testing positive for COVID-19.

What to expect in 2021: Martín will have some learning to do. I think he will be somewhere between 14th and 18th in the championship.

Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP
Maverick Viñales: #12 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2020: Viñales won three pole positions and he won the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Misano, but the Spaniard had one top five finish in the final seven races. He ended the year on 132 points, sixth in the championship. 

What to expect in 2021: Early testing results were encouraging for the entire Yamaha bunch, but concerns remain about Yamaha's overall pace, which cost the manufacture at many races in 2020. There is still a sense when Yamaha is on it will look good, but when it is off it will be out of the picture. Will a more rounded schedule benefit or hinder Yamaha? There were a lot of doubleheaders last year, which exacerbated the problems. Viñales will pick up his share of victories, but it will prove difficult to put together a championship-worthy season.

Fabio Quartararo: #20 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2020: Quartararo opened the season with a pair of victories from pole position at Jerez, but he had only one other victory in the final 12 races and that was at Barcelona. That was also his only other podium finish. He was eighth or worse in the final six races and settled for eighth in the championship with 127 points.

What to expect in 2021: Not many times does a rider enter a season off winning a share of the most races and feel like momentum is against him. Quartararo left a lot to be desired with the end of his 2020 season. After winning the first two races and with Marc Márquez out, it felt like the championship was Quartararo's for the taking. He struggled more than the rest of the Yamaha riders. Eighth in the championship might have been generous last year. He has to be more consistent this season and score more podium finishes. He could turn it around and be in the championship fight, but I expect him to be a tad shy of that. 

Red Bull KTM Tech 3
Danilo Petrucci: #9 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2020: Riding for the factory Ducati team, Petrucci won at Le Mans, but his next best finish over the entire season was seventh. He was 12th in the championship with 78 points.

What to expect in 2021: Petrucci seems happy entering the season. KTM was streaky last season, and the Austrian manufacture was not flashy in testing, but the thought is KTM was not showing its hand. I think Petrucci will be about where he was last year, between tenth and 13th and he could have a couple top five results, maybe even get on the podium once or twice.

Iker Lecuona: #27 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2020: Lecuona scored 27 points in 11 races with his best finish being ninth at the Austrian Grand Prix and Teruel Grand Prix. He missed the final three races after contracting COVID-19.

What to expect in 2021: About the same as 2020. Lecuona will score a few points, but not many. He may sneak into the top ten once or twice.

LCR Honda Idemitsu/Castrol
Takaaki Nakagami: #30 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2020: Nakagami scored points in the first ten races, won pole position for the 11th round, the Teruel Grand Prix and the proceeded to fall the bike on the opening lap of that race. He scored points in 12 of 14 races, with all the results being top ten finishes, but he was tenth in the championship with 116 points. 

What to expect in 2021: More of the same. I think Nakagami will remain consistent, score points and we could see him again in the top ten of the championship. He could get on the podium.

Álex Márquez: #73 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2020: Riding for the factory Honda team, Márquez scored runner-up finishes at Le Mans and Aragón, but he had no other top five finishes. With 74 points, he was the second-best rookie, 14th in the championship.
 
What to expect in 2021: Márquez will be coming off a fractured foot and he is moving down to the customer team. He had a better feeling of the bike as the season went along. His goal should be to beat his teammate Nakagami in the championship.

Repsol Honda Team
Stefan Bradl: #6 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2020: Bradl ran 11 races in place of an injured Marc Márquez, and Bradl scored 27 points. His best finish was seventh at Portimão.

What to expect in 2021: Márquez will miss the Qatar Grand Prix and that means Bradl will get at least one start. He could get more if Márquez's recovery continues to be delayed. Bradl improved over the course of his 2020 season and testing was good. I am not sure he will be keeping up with Espargaró. 

Pol Espargaró: #44 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2020: Espargaró was fifth in the championship with 135 points riding for the factory KTM outfit. He was the third-place finisher on five occasions, including in both races where he started on pole position. 

What to expect in 2021: Espargaró had a solid test, though he was not lighting the field on fire in testing. Honda needs Espargaró to match his 2020 output on the KTM. He might just miss out on the top five in the championship, but I think he should be somewhere in the top ten and win a race or two.  

Marc Márquez: #93 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2020: Márquez broke his arm in the 2020 season opener at Jerez. After attempting to run the second race from Jerez, Márquez sidelined himself until he properly healed. He fractured the plate in his arm attempting to close a window and that ended any chance of him running again in the 2020 season.

What to expect in 2021: It comes down to whether or not Márquez is healthy, and he will miss the season opener from Qatar. He has done very limited testing and is coming off a slow recovery from his broken arm. I am concerned about his fitness. He has not raced competitively since the middle of last July and that is his only race in nearly 16 months. He is remarkable and he won races and championships while not 100%, but I am hesitant to say it is his championship to lose. 

There is a world where Márquez wins the championship with about eight race victories. There is another world where he is struggling to compete for the top five and he has his worst championship finish. If he stays healthy, I think he will end up winning a race at some point, but I cannot give an exact total. 

Esponsorama Racing
Luca Marini: #10 Ducati Desmosedici GP19
What did he do in 2020: Marini was runner-up in Moto2 after winning three races and picking up six podium finishes. He lost the title by nine points. 

What to expect in 2021: Marini will be at the back of the field and fighting for points. This all-rookie lineup will do the best it can, but it is an older bike. If he can score about 30 points that would be a good season. 

Enea Bastianini: #23 Ducati Desmosedici GP19
What did he do in 2020: Bastianini won the Moto2 World Championship with three victories and seven podium finishes. He ended up on 205 points. 

What to expect in 2021: The same as Marini. Both these riders will be developing this season. They were pretty equal last year in Moto2. Zarco achieved some impressive results with Esponsorama, but he is a veteran. I think the goal for both these riders is to score at least four top ten finishes each and beat fellow Ducati customer rider Jorge Martín in the championship.

Aprilia Racing Team Gresini
Lorenzo Savadori: #32 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2020: Savadori substituted for Bradley Smith in the final three races of the MotoGP season. He retired in two races and was 18th in the second Valencia round.

What to expect in 2021: Savadori will be significantly off his Aprilia teammate and he will likely be outside the top 15 in the championship. This is a big step up for him. He was adequate in World Superbike, but that will not be good enough in MotoGP.

Aleix Espargaró: #41 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2020: Espargaró was 17th in the championship with 42 points with his best finish being eighth in the finale at Portugal. His second-best result of the season was in the penultimate race of the season, ninth at Valencia. 

What to expect in 2021: Testing suggests Aprilia might have found something and Espargaró could be much more competitive. Aprilia has pushed its chips to the center of the table and is shooting for points. He averaged three points per race last year. Two years ago, five points per race would have been good enough for 12th in the championship. The goal has to be average five points per race and a top 15 championship finish, but closer to tenth than 15th.

MotoGP takes to the track for first practice at 8:40 a.m. ET on Friday March 26. Second practice will follow at 1:00 p.m. Third practice will be at 8;15 a.m. on Saturday ahead of the fourth practice at 12:20 p.m. Qualifying will follow at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Qatar Grand Prix will take place on Sunday March 28 at 1:00 p.m.