Our final IndyCar team preview has arrived, and it is the defending champions. Chip Ganassi Racing won its second consecutive title with an unlikely source. Álex Palou, in his sophomore IndyCar season, but first with Ganassi, showed he was up for the promotion from day one winning at Barber Motorsports Park. For the first time in a decade, Scott Dixon had a challenger for best in the team.
Palou wasn't the only one carrying the weight. Dixon won and was never far off his teammate. Marcus Ericsson had a surprising breakout, not surprising that the Swede broke out but how he broke out, with victories from out of nowhere.
While Ganassi made team history with three different drivers winning a race in a season, it also made history with its fourth entry, primarily with Jimmie Johnson behind the wheel. The seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion moved to open-wheel racing and struggled, but made strides as he endeavored on a road/street course program while Tony Kanaan handled the ovals.
In 2022, there are no changes to the Ganassi lineup, other than Johnson stepping up to full-time competition.
2021 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 6 (Barber, Texas, Belle Isle I, Road America, Nashville, Portland)
Poles: 2 (Indianapolis 500, Portland)
Championship Finish: 1st (Álex Palou), 4th (Scott Dixon), 6th (Marcus Ericsson), 23rd (Jimmie Johnson), 27th (Tony Kanaan)
Marcus Ericsson - #8 Huski Chocolate Honda
After a suitable first season with Chip Ganassi Racing, Ericsson opened 2021 with a pair of top ten finishes. Another promising Texas result was lost in the pit lane when a tire was not properly fasten in the first Texas race. He fell into a mid-pack groove after that with finishes of 12th, tenth and 11th in the next three races.
Ericsson benefitted from the chaotic nature of the first Belle Isle race and was looking to get a podium finish out of nowhere. Then Will Power's car would not restart after the red flag was lifted with five laps to go. Ericsson assumed the lead and would have a sprint to the finish with Rinus VeeKay on his heels. Ericsson was not all that challenged, and he picked up his first career IndyCar victory basically out of nothing. He followed it with a ninth in race two.
After finishing sixth at Road America, Ericsson was strong at Mid-Ohio, spending most of the race in second position, but a speck in Josef Newgarden's mirrors. However, in the closing laps of the race, as Newgarden's tire wore and as Newgarden negotiated traffic, Ericsson closed. The Swede was there in case Newgarden made a mistake, but had to settle for second in one of his strongest IndyCar drives.
Nashville has been covered many times already for Ericsson. He ran over the back of Sébastien Bourdais and nearly retired the car until his damaged wing became unstuck from beneath his tires. In the Simon Pagenaud/Will Power incident on the lap 20 restart, Ericsson nearly stalled, but the car re-fired in time. The team kept making pit stops, topping off for fuel and the disjointed nature of the race saw about eight-dozen different pit strategies. With the leaders caught out, Ericsson cycled to the lead and green flag racing resumed.
Ericsson kept the lead while some of the faster cars, notably Colton Herta, had to fight from the back. Ericsson faced no pressure, but Herta was moving forward, and Herta had more fuel to burn. In the closing laps, Herta was ready to pounce, but one bad pass attempt caused the American to lose ground. Then Herta got into the tire barrier and ended his race. The race was restarted with two laps to go and Ericsson held on for his second victory of the season.
The Swede would finish in the top ten of the four races after that, but a collision in the turn one tire barrier at Long Beach meant he was the first driver to start his 2021-22 offseason.
Numbers to Remember:
1,864: Laps completed in 2021, fourth most in IndyCar, behind Simon Pagenaud, Scott McLaughlin and Patricio O'Ward.
10: Races led in his IndyCar career.
1: Race with more than five laps led (Nashville 2021, 37 laps led).
What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with Ericsson being the top Ganassi driver immediately. A pair of podium finishes out of the box, and no other driver with multiple podium finishes in the first two races. That will have him in the championship lead. Then he wins and he is the only driver with three podium finishes to open the season.
A slight dip follows and that dip is a top five finish. He is only in the top ten in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but a top ten finish in the Indianapolis 500 doesn't feel as bad, as it will be his best finish in the race and it will pay double points. At Belle Isle, he is on the podium again and he gets another victory at Road America before winning at Mid-Ohio.
A poor Toronto race is cancelled out with two top ten finishes in Iowa. He gets a top five finish in Nashville, but one he deserves with top five pace. He finishes in the top five at Gateway and it sets him up so a top ten in Portland and a top five at Laguna Seca is enough for Ericsson to make it three different Ganassi drivers with a championship in three seasons.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Ericsson is the best good driver there is in IndyCar right now. While he won two races in 2021, neither were all that impressive from him, and both were frankly down to circumstances. I don't want to belittle the man too much, because he has shown respectable pace in each of his IndyCar seasons, and the results have followed.
He has been a top ten finisher and a quick driver, but he is rarely the quickest driver. While he won two races in 2021, Ericsson still has not had a race where he has been the man to beat. He needs that in year four of IndyCar. He needs a few races where he starts right at the front, leads lap and forces others to beat him. He can do that in 2022, but most likely he will be a solid driver. He will finish in the top ten and those results compiling will lead to another respectable championship finish.
The key thing for Ericsson is turning some of those top ten results into more top five results. Three top five finishes is not enough in a season. I think he can make that marginal gain, but not necessarily see him leap further up the championship.
Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
With a sixth championship claimed, Dixon entered 2022 with a shot at history. Another title would tie him with A.J. Foyt for most all-time. Two more victories and he would equal Mario Andretti for second all-time with three victories enough to put Dixon second on his own, only behind Foyt.
The season was a classic Dixon start: third, fifth, first and fourth with the championship lead. We hadn't even made it to Indianapolis and people were ready for Dixon to retain the crowd. Indianapolis started with a ninth-place finish on the road course and pole position for the Indianapolis 500. The title appeared close to being claimed on Memorial Day weekend, but Dixon stumbled.
Stefan Wilson's spin caught Dixon out before his first pit stop. Dixon was going to lose ground anyway, but he was forced to make an emergency stop due to his low fuel level. The car stalled and the electronics had to be completely recycled before he could restart. This cost him a lap and the race wasn't even 100 miles old.
With a lack of caution, Dixon did not get back on the lead lap until after halfway. The team tried to work a Hail Mary strategy to get a decent result, but all the team could manage was 17th.
Dixon went on a run of five consecutive top ten finishes after Indianapolis, the last three all being top five finishes, but his summer ended poorly. Indianapolis was not kind to Dixon in 2021. A spin in qualifying meant he had to start 26th. He moved up the order, but finishing on the less ideal primary tires knocked him back to 17th. He was taken out at Gateway when Rinus VeeKay made an ambitious move into turn one. Dixon was third at Portland, but he was collected in Takuma Sato's spin at Long Beach, knocking Dixon down to 13th. Dixon's season ended the way it started, a third-place finish.
Numbers to Remember:
401: Laps led in 2021, Dixon's most in a season since 2012.
369: Laps led at Texas Motor Speedway in 2021.
12: Race victory drought entering the 2022 season, his longest since a 12-race drought between his victories at Toronto in 2018 and Belle Isle in 2019.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Dixon has won six championships. He can win a championship any way.
He can win the first three races and have a stranglehold on it from day one. He can start slow, not win until the 11th race, go on a late run and take the championship on the final day of the season. He can have a balanced season, winning a race in each quarter and always being better than his competition, but not being flashy.
There are only two multi-time champions in IndyCar currently, Dixon and Josef Newgarden. There are only three other champions in IndyCar. For most drivers, there are only one or two possible ways to win a championship. For Dixon, the possibilities are limitless.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
In the case of Dixon, the question is not how good of a season can he have, but how bad of a season can he have?
For most drivers, we want to know the ceiling. Dixon has been dancing on the ceiling for nearly 20 years. What is his floor?
We are used to him being in the top three or four of the championship with a handful of victories, but it has been a while since we have seen Dixon risk going winless. IndyCar was completely different when Dixon did not reach victory lane in 2004. Last year was a bad year for Dixon and he still had a victory and five podium finishes. He was fourth in the championship. Ninety-percent of IndyCar would have died for Dixon's 2021 season, and yet for Dixon, it was one of his worst seasons.
The man will turn 42 years old this July. We know Dixon will not be around forever. The greatest all experience a drop off. A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti each had it. Johnny Rutherford, Al Unser and Gordon Johncock each hung around, no longer great threats for victories, but could pull out impressive results with little left on the tank late in their careers. Dixon's teammate Jimmie Johnson experienced it in NASCAR.
None of us want to see Dixon end his career with four or five winless seasons and him drop from a championship contender to unable to make it into the championship top ten. We all fear that day coming for Dixon.
It is hard to classify last year as a down year, but for Dixon, I am using the rule of three approach. One bad season is happenstance, two bad seasons is a coincidence, three bad seasons is a pattern. Until Dixon has three consecutive bad seasons, we cannot say he is done.
What is realistic for this season? It is Scott Dixon. A championship with six victories wouldn't be surprising. He is going to be there.
Álex Palou - #10 NTT Data Honda
Palou could not have made a better first impression at Chip Ganassi Racing: A victory! With a proper set up and great tire management, the Spaniard led 56 of 90 laps at Barber Motorsports Park. He had a hangover at St. Petersburg and finished 17th, but he recovered with a pair of top ten finishes at Texas.
At Indianapolis, he opened with a third on the road course and was a notable challenger to Romain Grosjean for the race lead. He qualified sixth for the Indianapolis 500 and spent nearly the entire race in the top five. Palou led 35 laps and was leading with two laps to go before Hélio Castroneves took the lead entering turn one. Palou was unable to counter, but he was second in his second Indianapolis 500 start, and that gave him back the championship lead.
The first Belle Isle race saw Palou serve a six-spot grid penalty for an unapproved engine change, and his qualifying effort didn't help. A 21st became 25th on the grid and all he could manage was 15th in the race. He responded with a third in the second race. Palou had an outstanding debut weekend at Road America in 2020 with a third and a ninth in what were the third and fourth races of his IndyCar career. He was at the front again in 2021, and he kept Josef Newgarden honest, but it looked like Newgarden would get the victory. The late caution and ensuing restart put Palou in position, but he would have to be precise to get the lead. However, Newgarden's gearbox let him down and Palou zoomed to the lead like it was nothing. A victory fell into his lap and so did the championship lead.
Palou was not making any errors. He was third at Mid-Ohio and seventh in Nashville. No one was as consistent as he was and clinching the championship early was likely. He was in the top five of the August IMS road course race when his engine failed. That led to another grid penalty, this time nine position at Gateway. He started 21st and was caught in the VeeKay incident. He lost the championship lead.
Playing from behind, Palou won pole position at Portland... and then missed the chicane at Portland in lap one. He was shuffled back, but topping off for fuel under that extended first caution meant the team could be a little more aggressive. Palou made up positions, but the cautions also fell his way. The race cycled Palou to the lead and he took his third victory of the season, handing him the championship for the fourth time.
He would not slip up in the final two races. An incredible drive saw him second in Laguna Seca. He had a healthy margin for error at Long Beach, but still finished fourth, sealing him his first IndyCar championship.
Numbers to Remember:
3: Palou's championship in 2021 made it the third time Chip Ganassi Racing has won consecutive IndyCar championships.
4: Each of Ganassi's previous two consecutive championship streaks lasted for four seasons (1996-99 and 2008-11)
7.3125: Average finish in 2021, second in IndyCar.
1: Palou was first in the championship, podium finishes, top five finishes, fastest laps and he was tied for first in victories, races led, Fast Six appearances and Fast 12 appearances last season.
What does a championship season look like for him?
We just saw it!
Win the season opener, bad second race, top five finish, pair of top ten finishes, pair of podium finishes, laps led in the Indianapolis 500, bad race, podium finish, victory at Road America after Josef Newgarden has a gearbox failure while leading with two laps to go, another podium finish, another top ten finish, engine failure while running in the top ten, taken out early at Gateway, surprise comeback victory at Portland, podium finish at Laguna Seca.
We know what Palou's championship season looks like.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
There might have been some tough results for Palou in 2021, but there weren't many bad races. He didn't make any mistakes. He really didn't make many mistakes as a rookie with Dale Coyne Racing either. I don't see Palou having hiccups in 2022. If he is not going to beat himself, Palou is going to be in the championship battle again.
If it wasn't for the engine failure at Indianapolis in August and Rinus VeeKay having a brain fade, Palou would have likely clinched the championship a race early. He was that good. Now, if it wasn't for Newgarden's gearbox issue at Road America, the championship would have gone to the wire and Newgarden would have been more of a threat. A few strikes went against Palou, but he also had a few breaks.
After winning a championship in a sophomore season, it is more likely to see a decline than the ascension continuing, but for Palou, I don't see him falling far. He is going to be in the top five of the championship. He could fall to sixth or seventh if Andretti Autosport and Team Penske are clicking at their highest levels, but Palou is going to be a threat. He is going to win multiple races. He will not go unnoticed.
Jimmie Johnson - #48 Carvana Honda
After over 20 years in stock car racing, Johnson's open-wheel switch was highly anticipated when IndyCar rolled into Barber Motorsports Park. There were many growing pains.
Johnson spun 11 laps into Barber and ended up 19th, three laps down. He had two incidents at St. Petersburg, finishing 22nd, five laps down. Things were better on the IMS road course in May, but he struggled with pace and was 24th, one lap down. Throttle issues ended his first Belle Isle race early and a spin late in the second race played significantly into the outcome of that race. For Johnson, his spin did not change much, other than settle that he would finish 21st.
The spins became less frequent as the year went along. Johnson was finishing races but wasn't putting together a complete race. He was 22nd at both Road America and Mid-Ohio. He was collateral damage in the Simon Pagenaud/Will Power accident at Nashville, but things ended on the right note.
Returning to the IMS road course, he was 19th and finished on the lead lap for the first time. He was 20th and on the lead lap at Portland. Laguna Seca was better. He was a lap down, but he was 17th, his best finish. He ended his IndyCar rookie season with another 17th-place finish at Long Beach, but this time on the lead lap.
Numbers to Remember:
646: Oval starts in the NASCAR Cup Series.
12.693: Winning percentage in NASCAR Cup Series oval starts.
874: Combined IndyCar oval starts between the other 23 full-time IndyCar drivers.
2: Of those 23 full-time drivers have made more than 100 IndyCar oval starts (Hélio Castroneves 194, Scott Dixon 172)
10: Of those 23 full-time drivers have made 15 IndyCar oval starts or fewer.
17,056: Days old on May 29, 2022, the day of the Indianapolis 500. If Johnson wins that day, he would tie Gordon Johncock for the sixth oldest IndyCar race winner.
What does a championship season look like for him?
A championship season for Johnson is based on strong oval results, and likely winning all of the oval races. If he wins all five oval races, with maximum points, he would have 328 points. Palou scored 549 points on his way to be champion last year, averaging 34.3125 points per start. Multiple that to a 17-race season, the total would be 583 points.
Based on a 17-race season, Johnson would need 255 points from his 12 road/street course starts, or averaging 21.25 points per race, or needing to average a finish of 9.75 or better. He would need to be bouncing between ninth and tenth for those 12 races with any finishes of 11th or 12th counterbalanced with finishes of seventh or eighth.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
I think Johnson could win an oval race. I am not saying it will happen, but I think he could find comfort on ovals. If the pace is there, and if he doesn't face any adversity, he could win.
The problem is Johnson's opening oval weekend at Texas comes when his attention will be split with the 12 Hours of Sebring, and Texas could dictate how his oval results play out for the entire season. If he struggles getting a grip there, a track he has raced at plenty of times, it could stunt him for the remaining oval races. We already know how leery he has been about doing oval races. Going from Texas to Indianapolis is not the ideal 1-2 punch for adapting to IndyCar oval races. A rough Texas weekend could linger in his mind at Indianapolis. A strong Texas weekend could inject all the confidence in the world heading into the biggest race of the season.
Indianapolis will be his toughest track mentally. He has won there in NASCAR, and Johnson is one of the best NASCAR drivers ever at Indianapolis. There will be many competing things in his mind. His legacy at that track, the intra-Ganassi battle, the biggest race in the world and digesting it all at 230 mph.
Iowa and Gateway will be interesting. Iowa is known for high tire wear, something Johnson has experienced, but these will be different tracks for him. I think he could figure these places out quickly. He will have two distinct seasons. A win might be a lot to expect for his first IndyCar season on ovals, but multiple top ten finishes is not crazy, and neither would be a top five finish.
As for his road/street course output, Johnson was improving over the course of the season. Results got significantly better late in the season. Many of those tracks he tested at, notably Portland and Laguna Seca. His second race on the IMS road course was better than his first. His results still might not be spectacular, but I think he will be in the top fifteen multiple times after his best finish in 2021 was 17th.
Better road/street course results paired with solid oval finishes could get him a top twenty championship finish.
The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.
