While keeping up the usual championship, I have tracked head-to-head results, as seen in most team sports where two sides face each other and there is one winner and one loser. In a given race, there are 13 winners and 13 losers. The top teams make the playoffs, the worst teams in the top league are relegated and the rest are fighting to remain alive, and in the second league, the top two are promoted with another competing in a playoff for a final spot.
We are beyond the halfway point in the 2022 IndyCar head-to-head league format, and with some downtime before the next race, let's go over where we stand in this fictitious world. Who is in playoff contention? Who is in the relegation battle? What teams are looking good for promotion?
We will start in League One.
League One:
Conference 1 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)
1. #12 Penske 7-1
St. Petersburg: WIN (3rd to #27's 20th)
Texas: WIN (4th to #51's 20th)
Long Beach: WIN (4th to #9's 6th)
Barber: WIN (4th to #45's 18th)
GPOI: WIN (3rd to #10's 18th)
500: WIN (15th to #3's 29th)
Belle Isle: WIN (1st to #26's 8th)
Road America: LOSS (19th to #27's 3rd)
2. #27 Andretti 5-3
St. Petersburg: LOSS (20th to #12's 3rd)
Texas: LOSS (27th to #26's 12th)
Long Beach: WIN (8th to #3's 14th)
Barber: LOSS (9th to #10's 2nd)
GPOI: WIN (11th to #45's 13th)
500: WIN (5th to #9's 21st)
Belle Isle: WIN (2nd to #51's 13th)
Road America: WIN (3rd to #12's 19th)
3. #3 Penske 4-4
St. Petersburg: WIN (1st to #9's 8th)
Texas: WIN (2nd to #10's 7th)
Long Beach: LOSS (14th to #27's 8th)
Barber: WIN (6th to #26's 10th)
GPOI: LOSS (20th to #51's 7th)
500: LOSS (29th to #12's 15th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (19th to #45's 15th)
Road America: WIN (7th to #9's 9th)
4. #10 Ganassi 4-4
St. Petersburg: WIN (2nd to #45's 13th)
Texas: LOSS (7th to #3's 2nd)
Long Beach: WIN (3rd to #51's 17th)
Barber: WIN (2nd to #27's 9th)
GPOI: LOSS (18th to #12's 3rd)
500: WIN (9th to #26's 30th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (6th to #9's 3rd)
Road America: LOSS (27th to #45's 13th)
5. #45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan 4-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (13th to #10's 2nd)
Texas: LOSS (9th to #9's 5th)
Long Beach: WIN (15th to #26's 23rd)
Barber: LOSS (18th to #12's 4th)
GPOI: LOSS (13th to #27's 11th)
500: WIN (24th to #51's 25th)
Belle Isle: WIN (15th to #3's 19th)
Road America: WIN (13th to #10's 27th)
6. #26 Andretti 4-4
St. Petersburg: WIN (4th to #51's 10th)
Texas: WIN (12th to #27's 27th)
Long Beach: LOSS (23rd to #45's 15th)
Barber: LOSS (10th to #3's 6th)
GPOI: WIN (1st to #9's 10th)
500: LOSS (30th to #10's 9th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (8th to #12's 1st)
Road America: WIN (5th to #51's 15th)
7. #9 Ganassi 3-5
St. Petersburg: LOSS (8th to #3's 1st)
Texas: WIN (5th to #45's 9th)
Long Beach: LOSS (6th to #12's 4th)
Barber: WIN (5th to #51's 13th)
GPOI: LOSS (10th to #26's 1st)
500: LOSS (21st to #27's 5th)
Belle Isle: WIN (3rd to #10's 6th)
Road America: LOSS (9th to #3's 7th)
8. #51 Coyne 1-7
St. Petersburg: LOSS (10th to #26's 4th)
Texas: LOSS (20th to #12's 4th)
Long Beach: LOSS (17th to #10's 3rd)
Barber: LOSS (13th to #9's 5th)
GPOI: WIN (7th to #3's 20th)
500: LOSS (25th to #45's 24th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (13th to #27's 2nd)
Road America: LOSS (15th to #26's 5th)
Conference 1 Breakdown:
The #12 Penske entry of Will Power looks set for a playoff spot but being only three games clear of the bubble is far from untouchable. A difficult second half could see him in trouble of advancing. Just look at the #27 Andretti entry. Alexander Rossi started the season 1-3 and has proceeded to win four consecutive matchups. A 1-3 run over the next four matchups would see Power on an 8-4 record entering the final two matchups. If he ends up 8-6, there is a good chance he makes the playoffs, but he could find himself fall on the wrong side of playoff line.
There is a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots. Going off the head-to-head matchups between those four teams, the #3 Penske, the #10 Ganassi and #45 RLLR entries are all 2-1 while the #26 Andretti is 0-3. Best race result breaks up the three-way tie. Scott McLaughlin won at St. Petersburg. Álex Palou has two runner-up finishes. Those two teams hold the tiebreaker and the final two playoff spots. The #45 RLLR's best finish this season was ninth at the hands of Santino Ferrucci at Texas. With six weeks to go in the regular season and all these teams still having to meet a second time, the playoff picture is bound to be shaken up.
Of course, not only are the playoff spots important, but fifth is guaranteed safety to the 2023 season while sixth would have to go to the relegation playoff and could be knocked out of the league. Colton Herta will need to be flawless in the next six races to pick up a few spots in the standings.
Not far out of the playoff picture, but somewhat surprisingly in seventh is the #9 Ganassi entry. Scott Dixon has not caught a break. Four of his five losses have been top ten finishes, and two of those have been losses to race winners. Dixon hasn't been spectacular this season, but he hasn't been poor either. I think this goes to show how tough IndyCar is and even on a driver's best day, there is a good chance they will run into someone better.
That leads us to the bottom and Takuma Sato. The #51 Coyne entry's only victory was at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This has been a rough year for Sato, but has it really been this bad? I wouldn't say so. Consider that the #45 RLLR entry is just outside a playoff spot but has half the number of top ten finishes as the #51 Coyne entry. Sato has not caught many breaks, meanwhile, the #45 RLLR has caught the breaks with Jack Harvey catching Colton Herta when Herta has an accident at Long Beach, McLaughlin at Belle Isle when McLaughlin had an off and lost a lap and Palou at Road America when Palou was pretty much knocked out four laps into the race.
As things stand, we could have two Penske drivers, an Andretti and a Ganassi in the playoffs, but also Herta and Dixon in the relegation playoff. They would face the sixth and seventh-place teams from Conference 2, meaning there is a chance Herta and Dixon could meet in the relegation playoff final with the loser being bumped down to League Two in 2023.
Conference 2 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)
1. #8 Ganassi 6-2
St. Petersburg: WIN (9th to #60's 15th)
Texas: WIN (3rd to #30's 19th)
Long Beach: LOSS (22nd to #18's 21st)
Barber: LOSS (12th to #28's 7th)
GPOI: WIN (4th to #5's 19th)
500: WIN (1st to #2's 13th)
Belle Isle: WIN (7th to #15's 26th)
Road America: WIN (2nd to #60's 12th)
2. #2 Penske 6-2
St. Petersburg: WIN (16th to #18's 26th)
Texas: WIN (1st to #28's 26th)
Long Beach: WIN (1st to #60's 19th)
Barber: WIN (14th to #30's 15th)
GPOI: LOSS (25th to #15's 16th)
500: LOSS (13th to #8's 1st)
Belle Isle: WIN (4th to #5's 5th)
Road America: WIN (1st to #18's 16th)
3. #15 RLLR 5-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (7th to #30's 11th)
Texas: LOSS (22nd to #60's 8th)
Long Beach: LOSS (7th to #5's 5th)
Barber: WIN (8th to #18's 20th)
GPOI: WIN (16th to #2's 25th)
500: WIN (14th to #28's 31st)
Belle Isle: LOSS (26th to #8's 7th)
Road America: WIN (8th to #30's 10th)
4. #60 Meyer Shank 4-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (15th to #8's 9th)
Texas: WIN (8th to #15's 22nd)
Long Beach: LOSS (19th to #2's 1st)
Barber: LOSS (11th to #5's 1st)
GPOI: WIN (2nd to #28's 17th)
500: WIN (8th to #18's 16th)
Belle Isle: WIN (9th to #30's 14th)
Road America: LOSS (12th to #8's 2nd)
5. #28 Andretti 4-4
St. Petersburg: WIN (5th to #5's 12th)
Texas: LOSS (26th to #2's 1st)
Long Beach: WIN (2nd to #30's 18th)
Barber: WIN (7th to #8's 12th)
GPOI: LOSS (17th to #60"s 2nd)
500: LOSS (31st to #15's 14th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (17th to #18's 11th)
Road America: WIN (4th to #5's 26th)
6. #18 Coyne 3-5
St. Petersburg: LOSS (26th to #2's 16th)
Texas: WIN (11th to #5's 15th)
Long Beach: WIN (21st to #8's 22nd)
Barber: LOSS (20th to #15's 8th)
GPOI: LOSS (12th to #30's 9th)
500: LOSS (16th to #60's 8th)
Belle Isle: WIN (11th to #28's 17th)
Road America: LOSS (16th to #2's 1st)
7. #5 Arrow McLaren SP 3-5
St. Petersburg: LOSS (12th to #28's 5th)
Texas: LOSS (15th to #18's 11th)
Long Beach: WIN (5th to #15's 7th)
Barber: WIN (1st to #60's 11th)
GPOI: LOSS (19th to #8's 4th)
500: WIN (2nd to #30's 18th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (5th to #2's 4th)
Road America: LOSS (26th to #28's 4th)
8. #30 RLLR 1-7
St. Petersburg: LOSS (11th to #15's 7th)
Texas: LOSS (19th to #8's 3rd)
Long Beach: LOSS (18th to #28's 2nd)
Barber: LOSS (15th to #2's 14th)
GPOI: WIN (9th to #18's 12th)
500: LOSS (18th to #5's 2nd)
Belle Isle: LOSS (14th to #60's 9th)
Road America: LOSS (10th to #15's 8th)
Conference 2 Breakdown:
Slightly tighter than Conference 1, Marcus Ericsson and Josef Newgarden have the #8 Ganassi and #2 Penske entries tied at the top. The tiebreaker currently goes to Ericsson, who beat Newgarden head-to-head at the Indianapolis 500 of all races. They will meet again at the second Iowa race and that could decide who gets the #1-seed.
Newgarden has won three races, but he is also slightly fortunate that he could win head-to-head matchups with a 16th at St. Petersburg and 14th at Barber. Both Ericsson and Newgarden are only two games to the good of the playoff bubble. A few breaks have Newgarden with greater breathing room than his results suggests he should have.
Graham Rahal has the #15 RLLR entry at 5-3 and has twice won with finishes outside the top ten, including one victory against Newgarden. The #60 Meyer Shank and #28 Andretti entries are tied at 4-4. The #60 MSR holds the tiebreaker as Simon Pagenaud defeated Romain Grosjean at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. But it is tight top to bottom in Conference 2.
The #18 Coyne and #5 AMSP entries are both one game out of a playoff spot. David Malukas defeated Patricio O'Ward at Texas and holds the tiebreaker. Each time O'Ward has finished outside the top ten he has lost, but he also lost at Belle Isle with his fifth-place finish paired against Newgarden, who finished fourth. It is the only instance of a top five finisher losing a head-to-head matchup this season.
Last season, only four top-five finishes resulted in head-to-head losses and that was actually down compared to the 2019 and 2020 seasons, where seven and eight top-five finishers respectively ended up losing head-to-head matchups. It happens and unfortunately O'Ward happens to be the only one to suffer such a cruel fate in 2022.
That leads us to the #30 RLLR entry on the bottom and in the drop zone. Coincidentally, Christian Lundgaard is the top rookie in the IndyCar championship, and yet he is at the bottom off his conference when it comes to head-to-head matchups. A slightly bad break was his loss at Road America with a tenth-place finish while paired against his teammate Rahal, who was eighth. Six of his seven losses have been to drivers who finished in the top ten and his seventh loss was when he was 15th at Barber, paired against Newgarden, who finished 14th. We are talking about three positions over two races being the difference between Lundgaard fighting for safety or being on the edge of a playoff spot.
The championship leader and the driver with the most victories both are well-positioned for the playoffs, but it is wide-open for the other two playoff spots and a driver ranked in the top five of the championship is currently in a relegation playoff spot.
There are still six weeks remaining but the margin for error has evaporated.
League Two (Top three automatically promoted)
1. #7 AMSP 8-1
St. Petersburg: WIN (17th to #48's 23rd)
Texas: WIN (21st to #29's 24th)
Long Beach: WIN (11th to #77's 24th)
Barber: WIN (16th to #14's 22nd)
GPOI: WIN (6th to #11's 15th)
500 Quals: LOSS (8th to #21's 3rd)
500: WIN (4th to #20's 6th)
Belle Isle: WIN (10th to #06's 25th)
Road America: WIN (6th to #4's 23rd)
2. #21 ECR 6-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (6th to #11's 24th)
Texas: WIN (10th to #77's 16th)
Long Beach: WIN (13th to #4's 26th)
Barber: WIN (3rd to #06's 21st)
GPOI: LOSS (23rd to #48's 22nd)
500 Quals: WIN (3rd to #7's 8th)
500: LOSS (33rd to #29's 20th)
Belle Isle: WIN (16th to #14's 24th)
Road America: LOSS (17th to #20's 14th)
3. #06 MSR 6-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (14th to #29's 22nd)
Texas: WIN (23rd to #14's 25th)
Long Beach: WIN (9th to #20's 12th)
Barber: LOSS (21st to #21's 3rd)
GPOI: WIN (14th to #4's 27th)
500 Quals: LOSS (27th to #77's 19th)
500: WIN (7th to #11's 14th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (25th to #7's 10th)
Road America: WIN (22nd to #48's 24th)
4. #48 Ganassi 5-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (23rd to #7's 17th)
Texas: WIN (6th to #4's 17th)
Long Beach: WIN (20th to #29's 25th)
Barber: WIN (24th to #77's 25th)
GPOI: WIN (22nd to #21's 23rd)
500 Quals: WIN (12th to #11's 17th)
500: LOSS (28th to #14's 17th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (22nd to #20's 12th)
Road America: LOSS (24th to #06's 22nd)
5. #20 ECR 5-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (21st to #77's 19th)
Texas: LOSS (18th to #11's 14th)
Long Beach: LOSS (12th to #06's 9th)
Barber: WIN (19th to #4's 23rd)
GPOI: WIN (5th to #29's 21st)
500 Quals: WIN (18th to #14's 28th)
500: LOSS (6th to #7's 4th)
Belle Isle: WIN (12th to #48's 22nd)
Road America: WIN (14th to #21's 17th)
6. #29 Andretti 5-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (22nd to #06's 14th)
Texas: LOSS (24th to #7's 21st)
Long Beach: LOSS (25th to #48's 20th)
Barber: WIN (17th to #11's 26th)
GPOI: LOSS (21st to #20's 5th)
500 Quals: WIN (24th to #4's 29th)
500: WIN (20th to #21's 33rd)
Belle Isle: WIN (18th to #77's 21st)
Road America: WIN (18th to #14's 20th)
7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 4-5
St. Petersburg: WIN (19th to #20's 21st)
Texas: LOSS (16th to #21'st 10th)
Long Beach: LOSS (24th to #7's 11th)
Barber: LOSS (25th to #48's 24th)
GPOI: WIN (8th to #14's 26th)
500 Quals: WIN (19th to #06's 27th)
500: LOSS (32nd to #4's 27th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (21st to #29's 18th)
Road America: WIN (11th to #11's 25th)
8. #14 Foyt 3-6
St. Petersburg: WIN (18th to #4's 25th)
Texas: LOSS (25th to #06's 23rd)
Long Beach: WIN (10th to #11's 16th)
Barber: LOSS (22nd to #7's 16th)
GPOI: LOSS (26th to #77's 8th)
500 Quals: LOSS (28th to #20's 18th)
500: WIN (17th to #48's 28th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (24th to #21's 16th)
Road America: LOSS (20th to #29's 18th)
9. #4 Foyt 2-7
St. Petersburg: LOSS (25th to #14's 18th)
Texas: LOSS (17th to #48's 6th)
Long Beach: LOSS (26th to #21's 13th)
Barber: LOSS (23rd to #20's 19th)
GPOI: LOSS (27th to #06's 14th)
500 Quals: LOSS (29th to #29's 24th)
500: WIN (27th to #77's 32nd)
Belle Isle: WIN (20th to #11's 23rd)
Road America: LOSS (23rd to #7's 6th)
10. #11 Foyt 1-8
St. Petersburg: LOSS (24th to #21's 6th)
Texas: WIN (14th to #20's 18th)
Long Beach: LOSS (16th to #14's 10th)
Barber: LOSS (26th to #29's 17th)
GPOI: LOSS (15th to #7's 6th)
500 Quals: LOSS (17th to #48's 12th)
500: LOSS (12th to #06's 7th)
Belle Isle: LOSS (23rd to #4's 20th)
Road America: LOSS (25th to #77's 11th)
League Two Breakdown:
After stealing victories in the first two weeks with rather poor results, Felix Rosenqvist's run of good form has the #7 AMSP entry on top of League Two and three games clear of fourth.
It is tight for the other two promotion spots. Rinus VeeKay and Hélio Castroneves have the #21 ECR and #06 MSR entries currently in the top three, but only one game ahead of the #48 Ganassi, #20 ECR and #29 Andretti entries. Some of these results are flattering.
Three of Jimmie Johnson's five victories are with results of 20th or worse. Devlin DeFrancesco has finished 17th or worse in all five of his victories and he has won four consecutive weeks!
Meanwhile, Callum Ilott has the #77 Juncos Hollinger entry two games out of promotion.
If there was ever a way to encapsulate how uncompetitive A.J. Foyt Racing is, even in a fictional environment, the team's three entries are the bottom three in League Two. The team's combined record is 6-21. Half of their victories are against other A.J. Foyt Racing cars!
There have been a few tough breaks for the Foyt camp. For example, the #11 Foyt entry with J.R. Hildebrand was paired with Jimmie Johnson for Indianapolis 500 qualifying and Hélio Castroneves for the Indianapolis 500 itself. Hildebrand was 17th and 12th in those respective events. Not bad for the team, but Hildebrand lost to Johnson, who qualified 12th, and lost to Castroneves, who finished seventh. Tatiana Calderón was 15th at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, not bad especially in wet conditions, but she was paired with Rosenqvist, who finished sixth. Again, DeFrancesco is 5-4, with a four-week winning streak, and has yet to finish better than 17th. Sometimes you are the hammer, and other times you are the nail.
For League One, it has six weeks left in the regular season. After Nashville, the top four will advance to the playoffs at Gateway, Portland and Laguna Seca. Fifth-place in each conference will be secure for the 2023 season, but the sixth and seventh-place finishers will go to the relegation playoff held over the Gateway and Portland weekends. Eighth-place in each conference will be relegated.
League Two has eight more weeks to go. With League Two being a round robin format, the top three after the Laguna Seca finale will earn promotion.
We will take another look at the league after Nashville to preview the playoff matchups and update the promotion/relegation situation.
