Tuesday, October 18, 2022

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2022 Season

The penultimate IndyCar Wrap-Up looks at Chip Ganassi Racing. The team had won consecutive championships and was looking to add a third on the spin in 2022. It was a unrevised lineup except for the fourth car no longer being split between two drivers. The team performed at the highest level but had turmoil over its future driver lineup embroil the second half of the season. It was still a good year, but there were plenty of distractions although none appear to have cost the team.

Scott Dixon
The 2022 season started with Dixon in an unfamiliar position: on a slump and not the top dog in the Ganassi pack. A new season didn't spark much of a change either, and we even saw Dixon suffer one of the worst defeats in his IndyCar career on its biggest stage. But Dixon rallied and re-wrote the record book in the process. He showed he had not lost it and regained his rightful spot at the head of the organization. 

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon won two races. His victory in Toronto saw him go level with Mario Andretti on 52 victories. His victory in Nashville saw him ascend to second alone. 

At Toronto, he started second and took the lead from Colton Herta through the first pit cycle. From there, he really went unchallenged. At Nashville, he started 14th, but made his final pit stop before a caution, allowing him to take the lead and he held on for victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
It will be surprising to hear such history does not warrant such acclaim, because neither victory was Dixon's best race. Dixon's best was also his worst race. It was the Indianapolis 500. He started on pole position for the fifth time in the Indianapolis 500 and he led 95 laps ahead of his lap 175 pit stop. It was Dixon's race. He faced pressure all race long but kept holding it off and a second Indianapolis 500 victory was in his hand...
 
What objectively was his worst race?
... until he sped on pit entry and was forced to serve a penalty, relegating him to 21st, the second to last car on the lead lap.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Instead of scoring the maximum 115 points for an Indianapolis 500 victory, 100 for victory plus the 12 points for pole position plus the three bonus points for the most laps led, Dixon wound up scoring 33 points, an 82-point swing. Dixon only lost the championship by 39 points in third. This wasn't Dixon's greatest season. He left a lot of points on the table, mostly in this race. For a driver that had 15 top ten finishes from 17 races, not much can get worse than this, a phenomenal performance with only one mistake but a costly one at that.

Scott Dixon's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (521 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 4
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 15
Laps Led: 177
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 11.059
Average Finish: 6.7059

Álex Palou
The 2021 champion looked poised to repeat in 2022. It wasn't long until Palou was back on top in the championship and ready to cause problems for the field. However, he ended up causing problems for more than the field and his own team as well as the summer was embroiled in a contract dispute between Palou and Chip Ganassi Racing. The disagreement ended up in court as the season wore on in a delicate situation. The off-track distraction did not carry over to the racetrack, but it will be what the 2022 season is remembered for.
 
What objectively was his best race?
Victory didn't come until the season finale, but Palou won at Laguna Seca in an authoritative fashion, over 30 seconds clear of the rest of the field and he did it from 11th starting position nonetheless.

What subjectively was his best race?
Laguna Seca was an historic victory. It was the largest margin of victory in an IndyCar race since Mark Dismore lapped the field in the 1999 Indy Racing League finale from Texas. It was the largest margin of victory in a race where the field wasn't lapped since Alex Zanardi won at Michigan in July 1997, and Palou won it from 11th. This wasn't a pole-sitter getting clear track and settling sail into the distance. Palou had to pass cars on track and then runaway.

What objectively was his worst race?
Palou and his teammate Marcus Ericsson came together in turn five on lap three at Road America, damaging Palou's suspension and causing him to finish 27th. Palou had qualified third. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Palou spun on lap six after switching to slick tires when the track was drying out. Though every driver was tiptoeing through the conditions, Palou was the driver to spin after dancing on the damp surface. He was in the grass but was able to pull out of it only to stall on the asphalt between turns ten and 11. This put Palou a lap down and he was trapped a lap down the entire race, ending up 18th at the checkered flag, wasting a front row starting position. 

He also didn't have a great car at Portland and took a gamble on strategy that didn't pay off, ending his championship defense in the Pacific Northwest.

Álex Palou's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 5th (510 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 173
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 8
Fast Twelves: 11 
Average Start: 8.0588
Average Finish: 8.0

Marcus Ericsson
Back for his third season with Chip Ganassi Racing, Ericsson looked to improve upon his two victories and sixth-place championship finish in 2021. He improved in neither category, but he had a wonderful and memorable season. Being a championship leader for most of the year showed Ericsson is more than capable competing at a high level in IndyCar, though room from improve still exists. 
 
What objectively was his best race?
Ericsson won the Indianapolis 500.

What subjectively was his best race?
Ericsson won the Indianapolis 500. That is enough. In all seriousness, Ericsson looked good in every session on the 2.5-mile oval. He never showed he was the top driver, but Ericsson was always in the background and a threat. When Scott Dixon fell out of picture with his speeding penalty, Ericsson stepped up, drove to the front around the Arrow McLaren SP duo of Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist, and Ericsson held off O'Ward in the late restart to take a career-changing victory.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Ericsson was 22nd at Long Beach after slapping the barrier exiting turn four when in position for a podium result.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Long Beach is really the only bad race Ericsson had all year. The only other negative from his season is he didn't finish good enough to maximize the double points he scored at Indianapolis. After scoring three top five finishes in the first six races, he had only two in the next 11 races. He was a top ten regular but couldn't quite reach that championship level despite leading the championship after six of 17 races.
 
Marcus Ericsson's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (506 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 37
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.647
Average Finish: 8.0855

Jimmie Johnson
After dipping his toes in the IndyCar waters running all the road and street course races in 2021, Johnson was ready for the full season and the ovals in 2022. Of course, the road and street courses made up majority of the season and Johnson had much room for improvement. There were some better days, but many looked similar to what we saw in 2021. He made notable gains and positive runs on ovals elevated his sophomore season.
 
What objectively was his best race?
Johnson took a fifth-place finish in the second Iowa race. He made some notable passes on the high line of the racetrack and used the top lane better than any driver that weekend at Iowa.

What subjectively was his best race?
The entire Iowa weekend was great for Johnson, but I was more impressed with his drive in the first Iowa race than the second. In the first race, Johnson spun early, avoided the barrier and came back to drive into the top ten and look ready for a top five result, but he didn't have the tire life at the end of the race and faded to 11th. That was not a fair representation of the race he had. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Strangely enough, his worst result was 28th in the Indianapolis 500 after having an accident with seven laps remaining.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500 wasn't good, especially when considering how he had done in practice and qualifying. Johnson was a top ten driver in practice, made the Fast 12, started 12th and he lost some spots at the start. The cautions didn't fall his way and his lost more track position. He may have led two laps but that was taking a gamble on strategy and trying to stop as late as possible in the race. Then he has an accident with the finish in sight. 

Johnson had some rough days on the road and street courses, but in the one race we had waited to see him drive the most, he had a bad day.

Jimmie Johnson's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (214 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 21
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1 
Average Start: 21.941
Average Finish: 18.588

An Early Look Ahead
We know Johnson will not return as a full-time driver in 2023. Whether he returns at all is a mystery, but Ganassi would be as good a spot as any for him to run the Indianapolis 500 again if he so pleases, and what Johnson decides to do could decide how Ganassi fills out that fourth car. 

It is a good seat and considering the other three full-time drivers won and they were third, fifth and sixth in the championship, that could fourth car is probably capable of vying for the championship if in the right pair of hands. The problem is does Johnson want to do more than Indianapolis? Does Ganassi have Johnson in a fifth car and drop Tony Kanaan, who just finished third in the Indianapolis 500 in that fifth Ganassi entry? Could we see Johnson complete a 180 and go from road/street course-only driver to full-time driver to oval-only driver in three seasons? If that is the case, then what happens with this car on road/street courses?

I would guess Chip Ganassi would rather have four drivers going for the championship then three with a rotating seat based on track discipline. But Ganassi also once had Sage Karam and Sebastián Saavedra split a seat, so what do I know? 

Regardless of the fourth Ganassi car, we also know it is likely 2023 will be the final season with Palou in the fold. Palou had a contentious situation over his contract for the 2023 season and Palou wanted to move to McLaren while Ganassi exercised the option to retain the driver for 2023. The two sides came to an agreement and Palou will stay, but Palou is a free agent for 2024. He will likely leave the team, and likely head to the Arrow McLaren SP program a year delayed. 

For the discord between a driver and car owner, Palou and Ganassi still performed in the second half of the season. It took a while for Palou to get a victory, but he still put up competitive results when the situation must have been tense considering Ganassi isn't known for his patience and understanding. If the 2022 season could end the way it did for these two, I don't see why 2023 will not be another successful season and possibly a championship push. 

But now we have Ganassi with an open seat and another seat that will likely be open soon. Ericsson should be set with this group. He definitely needs to find that next level but as long as Husky Chocolate doesn't mind sponsoring a car in a country it doesn't do business in, Ericsson should be at Ganassi. Dixon is fine. After a lengthy winless streak, Dixon found his form and turned what was only a good season into a championship contending year. Not many other drivers in IndyCar could do that. 

There is some pause that Dixon could hit such a rough patch again. For two victories and ending up third in the championship, there were plenty of races when Dixon looked like he could do no better than fifth or sixth. Those days were quite regular in 2022. But in one way, it wasn't a case of Dixon topping out in fifth or sixth while Palou and Ericsson were constantly winning races. Those two drivers started well but dropped off in the second half of the season while Dixon ascended above them. 

I think that points to a minor flaw in the Ganassi group. The team went from six victories in 2021 to four in 2022, a good season but still a decline. Team Penske also massive improved from 2021, going from three victories to nine. Things can be two things. Penske stepped forward while Ganassi took a slight step back. It isn't a cause for crisis, but it does show a deficiency that must be address ahead of the 2023 season for the Ganassi group. 

Whatever Ganassi decides to do with that fourth entry could speak volumes for the team's direction for the next three to five seasons. If the team decides to allow Johnson to run the ovals and split it with another driver it could tell us the team isn't worried about the next few years. If Ganassi makes a splashy signing, it could be the group setting the table for the future. Something in-between could be just that, a stop gap for a few seasons and then deciding where to go after that. 

The IndyCar grid is getting more competitive. Team Penske took three of the top four spots in the championship. Arrow McLaren SP is in the verge of constructing a super team with Patricio O'Ward, Felix Rosenqvist, Alexander Rossi and potentially Palou in 2024. It would be wise of Ganassi to stock up in this arms race for talent and not fall behind. That would mean filling that fourth entry with someone impressive now and prepare to do the same in 2024 should Palou leave. 

Ganassi is one of two teams that has won every championship over the last ten seasons. Anything it decides to do with drivers it worth our attention, but this feels like a regular thing where we are entering an offseason and have questions about Ganassi's future. It always seems to work out, but as IndyCar becomes more hotly contested, Ganassi faces possibly taking a big swing to keep its place at the top.