How Did Scott Dixon Win at Long Beach?
We did this last year after Dixon won at Indianapolis Motor Speedway's road course in August on a three-stop strategy from 23rd on lap seven after making his first pit stop on lap four of an 85-lap race. Some are calling what Dixon did at Long Beach less than two weeks ago greater than that.
In the same vein, we will analyze how Dixon won on the streets of Long Beach.
For starters, Long Beach was not as great of an obstacle compared to the IMS road course race last summer. Last August, Dixon was effectively dead last and had been in an accident on lap one. You could not have asked for a more improbable strategy than the one he pulled off, stopping first on lap four and making it on only two more stops from there.
At Long Beach, Dixon started eighth. He spent 15 of the first 16 laps in seventh. He made his first pit stop on lap 17; early, but not excessively early considering some considered lap 25 as the earliest for the pit window opening for the first stop. After Dixon stopped, he restarted 13th as most of the field did make a pit stop and the closest car that did not stop was in 11th. There was less in the way to Dixon's march to the front.
Speaking of Dixon's march to the front, the key thing is lap times. Dixon's overall average lap time over the 85-lap race was 71.92363 seconds. How does that compare to the three drivers that finished directly behind him, all three of which ran long on the first stint to ensure a shorter final stint in the race?
| Driver | Average Lap Time |
| Dixon | 71.92363 |
| Newgarden | 71.94844 |
| Herta | 72.0055 |
| Palou | 71.85448 |
On average, Dixon was 0.02482 seconds faster per lap than Newgarden, and 0.08188 seconds faster per lap than Herta. Extrapolate that out over 85 laps, and Dixon was 2.1097 seconds quicker than Newgarden, and 6.9598 seconds faster than Herta. Palou was actually faster per lap than Dixon by 0.069148, a 5.87758-second advantage in the Catalan driver's favor over 85 laps.
But that takes into consideration caution laps where everyone is running the same speed. What about green flag laps only?
| Driver | Average Green Flag Lap Time |
| Dixon | 71.46266 |
| Newgarden | 71.41014 |
| Herta | 71.47933 |
| Palou | 71.36812 |
Here, the advantage is again in Palou's favor and even Newgarden's. Newgarden was an average of 0.052525 seconds over those 80 laps, or 4.202 seconds faster than Dixon. Palou's advantage was 0.094544 over 80 green flag laps, or 7.56352 seconds over Dixon. Herta was the only of the three again slower this Dixon. Dixon was an average of 0.01667 seconds faster than Herta over the green flag laps. That adds up to 1.3336 seconds in Dixon favor over 80 laps.
However, the full-race distance is not where the race was won and lost, nor was it in all 80 green flag laps. It was won from lap 19 onward, the lap of the one and only restart through the checkered flag. Here is how it played out...
| Driver | Average Lap Time From Lap 19 Onward |
| Dixon | 70.13166 |
| Newgarden | 70.28707 |
| Herta | 70.3415 |
| Palou | 70.34647 |
This is where the margins open up. Here, Dixon is a full tenth faster than Newgarden per lap, 0.15542 seconds to be exact. Over the final 67 laps, that amounts to 10.41314 seconds for Dixon. For Herta, Dixon's average is 0.21349 seconds per lap quicker, or 14.30383 seconds over the entire green flag run. This is where it swings against Palou. Dixon averaged 0.21481 seconds per faster than his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate, or 14.39227 seconds over the final 67 laps.
Over every lap and all 80 green flap laps, Palou was a combined 13.4411 seconds faster than Dixon, but in the final 67 laps, all run continuously under green flag conditions, Dixon was 14.39227 seconds quicker. That shakes out to 0.95117 seconds in Dixon's favor. Dixon was 1.7664 seconds ahead of Palou at the checkered flag.
Newgarden's numbers shake out to Dixon being 8.32084 seconds ahead and Newgarden was fourth, 3.9735 seconds back. As for Herta, Dixon was a combined 22.58863 seconds quicker over those three segments of the laps, yet Herta was 0.9798 seconds behind Dixon in second at the finish.
Like the IMS road course race, Dixon did not have to make two green flag pit stops. He made one. That meant only one in-lap and one out-lap during the race. Newgarden, Herta and Palou all had to make two. A lot can be pointed to that, but Dixon still had to stretch the fuel, and he and his Ganassi crew worked the numbers to get the fastest possible strategy while stretching the final two stints over 34 laps each time. It also helped that Dixon did not have as far to go to get to first. After all, he technically never left the top half of the field over the entire race.
All the credit goes to Dixon for turning another long-shot strategy into a victory. Will Power was on the same strategy, and he finished over 15.7 seconds behind Dixon at the finish. Basically every driver who was on the same strategy as Dixon ended up finishing worse than where they were running when they made their first pit stop on lap 17. Dixon was not only the one driver who finished better, but Dixon went from seventh to first, a six-position leap. On the same strategy, Power, who had a commanding lead through the first 15 laps, went from first to fifth.
Dixon again got the most out of the car and it ended with another stellar victory.
May Preview
This is going to get plenty of coverage, and you might already be sick of hearing about it, but Kyle Larson will be attempting the Indianapolis 500. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion and past winner of the Knoxville Nationals and Chili Bowl will be making his long-anticipated attempt at The Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
This has felt inevitable for over a decade. Ever since Larson won three of the 4-Crown Nationals races in 2011, we have known he would up to great things. At that time, Bryan Clauson was on the Road to Indy and running oval races in Indy Lights through a scholarship with USAC. Clauson's respectable results led to a "500" attempt in 2012. With a pathway to the Indianapolis 500 for dirt racers, Larson was a possible future participant after many years with no representation from the dirt community.
Of course, a talent like Larson did not remain unattached for long, and he was soon in NASCAR's development system. The money and opportunity was too great to pass up. He remained active in dirt racing, but his full-time career path was heading to NASCAR and not hoping for a one-off shake at Memorial Day weekend's most famous race.
Despite the move to stock cars, the clamoring for Larson to run this race never went away. It only grew stronger as he became a full-time Cup driver turned Cup race winner with a 24 Hours of Daytona victory mixed in while he kept being the most sensational thing on dirt.
I know we are only seven years removed from Fernando Alonso's stunning decision to run the Indianapolis 500 over the Monaco Grand Prix, but Larson is arguably the most decorated driver to show up and attempt the Indianapolis 500 since Nigel Mansell 31 years ago. Alonso came when he was in the cellar with a woeful McLaren-Honda, and Indianapolis was a treat to pick up the Spaniard's moral, something to feed his ego.
Larson is attempting this race while being one of the top drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, the defending Knoxville Nationals winner, the defending Southern 500 winner and the defending Turkey Night Grand Prix winner. This is bigger than Jimmie Johnson's one attempt two years ago when Johnson dabbled in IndyCar at 46 years old and after his Cup career ended with three consecutive winless season.
Larson enters on top of the world, already a great driver. He has nothing to prove at Indianapolis, and yet he can further elevate himself in the all-time annals of motorsports. Every driver has a shot at history when they show up to 16th & Georgetown in the month of May. Larson has a chance to place himself somewhere higher than the likes of Foyt and Andretti.
Other May events of note:
IndyCar will be doing plenty from Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Formula One bookends this month with Miami and Monaco with Imola squeezed in-between.
MotoGP will be in Le Mans and Barcelona.
NASCAR has three races in the Carolinas, one of which is not for points.
Formula E has its most notable race weekend in Berlin before its first trip to Shanghai.
The sports car world is on eggshells before Le Mans, but the FIA World Endurance Championship has a round at Spa-Francorchamps and IMSA has a round at Laguna Seca this month.
