It is colder. It actually isn’t that much colder. I am wearing short sleeves for the second consecutive day and it is October 31! It is darker. The year is almost over. Races are becoming fewer and fewer for this calendar year. Many championships have been awarded. A few more will be handed out over the next 30 days. One will be decided in two. It is getting a little sad, but it is natural. Seasons end. More will start soon enough. There is plenty to be excited about. There is plenty to celebrate already. That is what we will do to end October 2024.
It is Nice to See Marc Márquez Doing Well
This will not end in a championship, but for Marc Márquez possibly finishing third in the championship on a year-old Ducati after making the switch away from Honda when the Japanese manufacturer was at an all-time low, and Márquez was hoping to find fitness he has not had in nearly five years, third in the championship would be a tremendous result.
Ever since 2020, Márquez has been fighting injuries more than he has been fighting riders for MotoGP victories. He had won eight world championships in the previous ten seasons including six MotoGP titles in seven seasons. When the delayed 2020 season was starting at Jerez, it felt inevitable Márquez would take a ninth title and fifth consecutive. With one fall, the next four years were lost.
Most of this struggle is on Márquez's shoulders, attempting to rush back from injury only to make it worse. It did not help that Honda's slide coincided with Márquez's injuries. The speed was there at times, and he did win three times in 2021 though he missed four races and retired from four more, but he could not shake the injury bug. Over the last four seasons, Márquez missed 29 races.
It became clear Honda was not going to field a proper contender. In the previous two seasons, Márquez extracted more out of that bike than anyone could imagine. Wins would not be coming his way if he stayed, but as damaged goods his options were limited. Gresini Racing and a year-old Ducati was going to be better than most other options, and this season was a gamble Márquez took on himself.
It has worked out.
Some of it could be down to Márquez recognizing he must remain on the bike. He cannot push the limit like he once did. The greatest ability is availability, and missing races, especially with the introduction of sprint races, are only going to extinguish championship sooner rather than later.
For the first half of this season, we saw a rider lurking in the background. Márquez was there. He wasn't coming out on top, but he was right behind the new Ducatis. There was a threat breathing down their necks. In the second half of the season, we have seen Márquez flex his muscle.
Three victories, five podium finishes, and seven top five finishes in nine races since the summer break, Márquez will have a fight for third in the championship over the final two races with another rejuvenated rider Enea Bastianini only ten points back. Even if Márquez finishes fourth in the championship, this has been a promising season where more positives can be drawn from the results than negatives.
This gamble has paid off in a promotion to the factory Ducati team alongside Francesco Bagnaia in 2025. Other than a championship, the results of 2024 have gotten Márquez all he could have wanted from this season. He will be on the best bike and equal playing ground as the riders that have dominated the championship the last three seasons.
The rest of the grid is in trouble.
Antonio García's Streak Continues
The IMSA season ended nearly three weeks ago now, and somehow one of the strangest streaks in motorsports is still alive, and it is one prediction I will mark as wrong in a few weeks time when we review how the 2024 predictions played out.
For the 13th consecutive season, Antonio García has finished either first or third in the championship. García was third in the IMSA GTD Pro championship with his #3 Corvette co-driver Alexander Sims. The streak now looks like this:
Third
First
Third
Third
Third
First
First
Third
First
First
Third
Third
Third
Entering the 2024 season finale at Petit Le Mans, it felt like this was going to be the year García wound up in an even-numbered championship finish or worse than third.
The #3 Corvette was fifth in the championship on 2,646 points, 13 points behind the #14 VasserSullivan Lexus of Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth, and 22 points behind the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW of Bryan Sellers and Madison Snow. As good as García and Sims are, and as tight as 22 points might be, it felt like we were bound for a weekend where the #3 Corvette would not make up that ground. That is not saying the #3 Corvette would do poorly, but with this streak on the line, it was bound to go against García. It could still be a good finish but not good enough.
How did this happen?
The #3 Corvette took fourth in class in qualifying. Paul Miller Racing was 11th and the VasserSullivan was 12th. That made up over 60% of the gap to the Lexus and nearly half the gap to Paul Miller Racing right there. In the race, the #14 Lexus fell out of the race barely over a quarter of the way through and was classified 13th in class. The #3 Corvette was fifth while the #1 BMW was seventh. In the race, the Corvette outscored the Paul Miller Racing BMW by 20 points and the Lexus by 80 points.
There you have it. Right when it looked destined to end, this streak continues and Antonio García has one of the remarkably consistent runs of form currently in motorsports. Nothing lasts forever, but perhaps we shouldn't believe this will until we actually see it end.
Formula One's Run-In
This might have been hard to fathom to write at the start of the calendar, but on the final day of October, only 47 points separate first and second in the World Drivers' Championship, four drivers remain alive for the title and Red Bull is third in the World Constructors' Championship with four races remaining.
It has been a season that has taken a turn.
Max Verstappen had seven victories in the first ten races. At the midway point in the season, Verstappen was up 84 points over Lando Norris. However, since the summer break concluded, Verstappen has finished behind Norris in five of six races. Verstappen hasn't won since Spain, and though it feels unlikely, the chance remains that the championship could change hands in about six week's time in Abu Dhabi.
Mathematically speaking, four drivers still have a chance at the championship. Charles Leclerc is 71 points back with 120 points remaining on the table. Oscar Piastri is 111 points back.
At this time last year, the championship had already been decided for two rounds entering the final four rounds. The general expectation this season was Verstappen would walkaway handily with maybe a little more competition but not enough to knock him off his perch. There is a good chance Verstappen will hold on to this title, but one poor result and it could swing to Norris.
It will require Norris outscoring Verstappen by more than 11.75 points over the final four rounds for him to beat the Dutchman. It is long odds, but considering this Formula One season has seen four different teams each win at least three races for the first time since 1977, and this is the first season where six drivers have won at least twice since 1981, why couldn't wee see this season capped off with the absolute unthinkable?
November Preview
While Formula One is in the middle of a title fight of its own, the FIA World Endurance Championship has a championship that will be decided this weekend.
Three teams have a shot at winning the World Endurance Drivers' Championship this weekend in the 8 Hours of Bahrain. Thirty-nine points remain on the table in the finale.
The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche of Kévin Estre, André Lotterer and Laurens Vanthoor has 150 points after victories at Qatar and Fuji. Thirty-five points back is the Le Mans-winning #50 Ferrari of Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina and Nicklas Nielsen. Thirty-seven points back and clinging to title hopes are Kamui Kobayashi and Nyck de Vries in the #7 Toyota, which won at Imola. Mike Conway, the third driver in the #7 Toyota, missed the 24 Hours of Le Mans after a cycling accident and Conway is not alive for the championship.
Porsche also leads the manufacturers' championship with 161 points, ten more than Toyota and 27 points ahead of Ferrari.
A Toyota team has won five consecutive championships in WEC's top class. Kobayashi is a two-time champion. The only other past champion in the top class still alive is Lotterer, who won the first World Endurance Drivers' Championship in 2012 with Audi. Estre won the World Endurance GT Drivers' Championship in 2018-19. Nielsen won the Endurance Trophy for GTE Am Drivers twice.
The 8 Hours of Bahrain will begin at 7:00 a.m. ET on Saturday November 2.
Other events of note in November:
After the Brazilian Grand Prix, Formula One will return for another Las Vegas round.
MotoGP has two final rounds in Malaysia and Valencia.
NASCAR ends its season with Martinsville and Phoenix.
Supercars will end in Adelaide.
Super Formula concludes at Suzuka.
The World Rally Championship crowns a champion in Japan.
The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup finishes in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
