1. Team Penske will not have a driver make the final four in the Cup Series
How does a team follow up three consecutive Cup Series championship? By not even having a challenger for the title in the final race. That is right. Team Penske will be shut out of the championship four in 2025.
For starters, Penske has been rather fortunate in the last two years to win the championship. In each of the last two seasons, the Penske champion has reset the record for fewest top five finishes for a champion in NASCAR's modern era. Joey Logano only scored the 12th most points this year. Too many things went right for Logano to claim the trophy at Phoenix. At some point, it will not work out.
That will be in 2025. Not only was Penske's overall results a cause for concern, but the NASCAR Cup Series is deep. Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were all on the outside of the championship four in 2024. That could be the final four in 2025. Perhaps Logano and Ryan Blaney fall out while Larson and a surprise Chase Briscoe makes a statement in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. Maybe Kyle Busch experiences a career revival and makes a run to the finale where he faces off with Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher for the cup.
Penske is good, but at some point good will not be enough to have a title shot into the finale.
2. There will be at least two occasions where a driver wins consecutive races
In 2024, no driver in the NASCAR Cup Series won consecutive races. The Cup Series enters 2025 without seeing a driver with consecutive races in 46 consecutive races. The most recent driver with consecutive victories was Chris Buescher at Richmond and Michigan in 2023.
How does NASCAR correct this? We will see a driver win consecutive races at least twice in 2025.
Where does the schedule set up for a driver to win consecutive races?
Are you going to rule out Kyle Larson winning at Las Vegas and Homestead in March? Or Homestead and Martinsville? Larson could very well win three consecutive races, and Darlington and Bristol follow that. He could win five straight!
Why couldn't Denny Hamlin win the Coca-Cola 600 and then win at Nashville to make up for one that got away last season.
Joey Logano has had success at Michigan, and Logano frequently wins debut races. He could follow a Michigan victory with victory in the inaugural NASCAR Cup race from Mexico City.
Chicago and Sonoma are consecutive weekends. There are about nine drivers in the Cup Series that would not surprise you if they won consecutive road course races.
It will be at least twice, maybe even three times in 2025.
3. At least three non-playoff drivers in 2024 will have clinched a playoff spot within the first 13 races of 2025
It does feel like we see surprise winners early in a season. Take 2024 for example. Daniel Suárez and Brad Keselowski did not win a race in 2023 and both missed the playoffs. Both won within the first 13 races of 2024 and locked up a playoff spot.
In 2023, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the Daytona 500, and Martin Truex, Jr., who had not won in 2022, won the 11th race at Dover. The 2022 season had Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain all picking up their first career victories within the first six races.
Droughts end early and often in the NASCAR Cup Series, and I think 2025 will be the same.
Notable non-playoff drivers from last year include Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Chastain and Kyle Busch. Throw in Shane van Gisbergen and A.J. Allmendinger, who both move up to the Cup Series full-time while combining the fact Circuit of the Americas in the third race of the season, and we could see some unfamiliar winners early in 2025. I think we see at least three.
4. Josh Berry will be the best sophomore driver in the championship
Carson Hocevar comfortably won the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year. With 686 points in 21st, Hocevar was six spots and 107 points ahead of the next best rookie. That was Josh Berry.
Hocevar remains with Spire Motorsports, which will see Michael McDowell and Justin Haley join that operation. Meanwhile, Berry moves from the closing Stewart-Haas Racing to Wood Brothers Racing.
Berry should be an upgrade over Harrison Burton. Berry might not win two or three races and pick up 15 top ten finishes, but he should be more competitive. Hocevar had a good end to the season. He had five top ten finishes and was third at Watkins Glen. Berry had four top ten finishes, which included a pair of third place results, but those all came within a six-race period.
The team change will raise Berry, and I don't know if Hocevar will even be the top Spire driver with new competition in-house.
5. Kyle Larson will have at least one stretch with five consecutive top ten finishes
You may think you remember Larson's 2024 season very well. He led the Cup Series with six victories and missed out on the championship four, but was in the picture for making it to the finale for entire Martinsville race before Ryan Blaney pulled away. But you may forgetting some parts of Larson's season.
In a 36-race season, Larson had only 18 top ten finishes, exactly half the races. Not bad, but not great either. Even less impressive when you noticed he had six finishes outside the top 30. He had ten finishes outside the top twenty in 2024.
You may think for the greatest driver in the world, five consecutive top ten finishes is nothing, but it would be quite the achievement for Larson. In 2024, Larson never finished in the top ten in three consecutive races. On seven occasions he had back-to-back top ten results, but he never made it to three consecutive races. Larson hasn't had at least five consecutive top ten finishes since an eight-race top ten streak in 2021 from Darlington in May through Pocono in June.
Larson will find some form and consistency in 2025.
6. Shane van Gisbergen will end the season with at least ten playoff points
Expectations might be set too high for van Gisbergen in his first full Cup Series season. He might have won on debut and three times as a rookie in NASCAR's second division, but the Cup Series is tough. Drivers do not waltz in and win a bunch of races.
Ten playoff points suggests van Gisbergen will win two races. With six road/street course races, it sets up nice for him. Two victories is not crazy, but he could fall short. He could win none. Consider Austin Cindric's road course success in the second level only to still be winless on road course in the Cup Series after three full seasons. I bet no one saw that coming at the start of 2022.
This prediction also takes into consideration stage victories. Van Gisbergen might win a race with no stage victories and then win five elsewhere, whether that be at other road courses or because he did not stop before a stage caution.
I don't think van Gisbergen is going to go six-for-six on the road and street courses. Two victories feels reasonable.
7. The finalists in NASCAR's in-season tournament will both be ranked in the top ten in points entering Indianapolis
The 2025 season will see NASCAR's first year of an in-season tournament. Over five races, the top 32 drivers will be a part of a single-elimination bracket that will determine a tournament champion based on head-to-head matchups.
The first race will be at Atlanta in June before going to Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and finishing with the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27.
This is ripe for an odd final. Head-to-head can produce fluky results. Toss in the first three rounds being a drafting track, a street course and a road course, and we could see a crazy quadrant of semifinalists before we even get to the final.
However, I believe the best in NASCAR will come out on top. There will be a few upsets early, but enough good drivers will survive and make the final reflect the actual talent in the series.
8. Front Row Motorsports will win no more than two pole positions
How many pole positions did Front Row Motorsports win last year?
Six.
All with Michael McDowell.
All at the drafting tracks (Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta).
McDowell is gone, and no team is going to get that lucky again. As good as Todd Gilliland and Noah Gragson might be, six pole positions are a lot. There is no guarantee Front Row Motorsports will still have that advantage on these flat-out circuits.
I will leave the door open that FRM will still be good and respectable, but they will not be as dominant as it was in qualifying last year.
9. At least one driver in NASCAR's second division will have at least five victories
In 2024, no driver in NASCAR's second division won five races. Austin Hill led the way with four victories. It was the first time a driver did not win at least five races in a season since 2003.
That means somebody is going to win at least five races in 2025. There is a good collection of drivers competing in this series. Justin Allgaier is coming off his first career championship. Austin Hill is still around. Jesse Love had a good but not great rookie year. Haas Factory Team will run two cars for Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer. Carson Kvapil, Connor Zilisch and Christian Eckes will all be rookies.
The field is good, but someone is winning five races, and that might be enough to claim the title.
10. Sheldon Creed will have more victories than runner-up finishes
Creed has gotten a bad rap for his inability to win. What is more stunning is Creed's ability to finish in second.
In 102 starts in NASCAR's second division, Creed has 13 runner-up finishes. On three occasions has Creed finished runner-up in consecutive races. He had six runner-up results in 2024 alone. If he had finished one spot better in all of those races... well, if he had won seven times in his first two seasons Creed would have wound up full-time in Cup in 2024, but 13 wins in 102 races would be a 12.7% winning percentage and 12th all-time. Of course, Creed isn't there, but it hasn't been for a lack of trying.
Remember, this prediction is not "Creed will win six races." It is Creed will finish first more than he finishes second. He could win once and have zero second-place finishes in 2025. He could win twice and finish second once. This is as much about Creed not finishing second as it is him winning. Six runner-up finishes will be tough to match. That number will come down. It will come down because some races he will finish first.
11. Corey Heim wins at least nine races in NASCAR national series competition
Speaking of winning percentage, Heim has won 17.1875% of his start in the NASCAR Truck Series. That is pretty good. Is it nine victories good? No. That success rate would only translate to 4.29 victories in the 2025 Truck season, but the truck field has gotten weaker.
Christian Eckes is gone. Nick Sanchez is gone. Taylor Gary is gone. Daniel Dye is gone. That is 40% of the playoff drivers from 2024, and two of those guys didn't even win a race. Eckes won four times. Sanchez won twice. Someone will have to win those races.
In the last three seasons, Heim has won two, four and six races respectively. He will have plenty of challengers. Champion Ty Majeski is still around. Grant Enfinger will figure into a race or two. Layne Riggs was coming on strong late in 2024. Rajah Caruth is back for a second season. Daniel Hemric could be competitive.
Nine victories is a lot. Nobody has won nine races in a Truck season since Greg Biffle in 1999, but the Truck Series will also have 25 races in 2025, two more than last year. Plus, Heim could run some races in NASCAR's second series, and he looked strong at that level last year driving for Sam Hunt Racing. If anyone at Toyota had a brain, Heim would be in a Gibbs car on a part-time basis.
Heim might win nine Truck races on his own, but he could also win seven Truck races and two in the second division. Be prepared for Heim victories.
12. One driver wins a race in all three national touring series
This one seems simple, and it is. Why this prediction? Because no driver won in all three series in 2024.
Four drivers won in two. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott all won in the top two series. Ross Chastain won in Cup and Trucks.
In 2023, Larson won in all three series. It didn't happen in 2022 either. Kyle Busch did it in 2021. Busch actually did it in nine consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2021, and he also did it in from 2005 to 2011. Kevin Harvick did it in 2012. Denny Hamlin also did it in 2011.
It has happened at least once in 18 of the last 20 seasons. I don't know who will do it in 2025. The landscape has changed where we do not see many Cup drivers running in either of the other two national touring series with great regularity, but it will happen in 2025.
It could be Kyle Larson, possibly it is Kyle Busch returning to his old form of dominating the lower series. Maybe it is someone completely out of nowhere (Connor Zilisch!). It will happen.
Speaking of will happen, more predictions will come next week as we wind down 2024 and gaze ahead to 2025.
