It might be 41 days until the first race of the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season, but it has not been too early for IndyCar team drama, especially for an organization that has yet to compete in an IndyCar race. That is the case for Prema.
It has been a relatively good introductory period for Prema. From grabbing Chevrolet engines for two entries last April and hiring Piers Phillips to run the IndyCar operation, to snagging Callum Ilott and bringing Robert Shwartzman into the series with Romain Grosjean as its reserve driver and having Ryan Briscoe as its sporting advisor, Prema has gathered the right pieces. It also had a great head of engineer leading the team.
"Had" being the key word.
Off the track, Prema had most things situated before the end of last week. What comes next is finding out where the team is on track.
At First Glance... We have no clue
We have no clue how Prema will be.
It is January 22nd and Prema's first test isn't until January 28 at Thermal Club.
We have no clue where Prema stands entering its first IndyCar season.
Up until about last Friday, we thought Prema had been doing all the right things.
It hired two promising young drivers, staffed a competent group of engineers and support personnel, and had a rather impressive preseason presentation almost two weeks ago to show off the team. On the surface, Prema looks like a professional group that has done its best to be prepare for this new endeavor.
Then its head of engineering Michael Cannon announced he was leaving the team less than a month after Cannon joined the organization. In a statement, Cannon said he departed after feeling his advice was being ignored. Cannon had spent the previous two seasons at A.J. Foyt Racing, was at Chip Ganassi Racing the three seasons before that and prior to that was at Dale Coyne Racing for six years.
While also working for Forsythe Racing, Ed Carpenter Racing and Andretti Global, Cannon has built a rather impressive résumé and he brings a reputation that he will make any organization better. It is not a coincidence that the fastest Foyt and Coyne have been at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the last 20 years coincide with the presence of Cannon on their respective timing stands.
If we know anything about Prema's upcoming season is it has already experienced a loss before ever turning a wheel.
Cannon's departure has stirred up a drumbeat that Prema has no clue what it is doing and it will suffer due to this unexpected change. Possibly, but Prema has also hired João Ginete from Haas F1 to be Shwartzman's race engineer while Steve Barker moves over from Juncos Hollinger Racing to be on Ilott's car, a combination that worked together previously. Robert Gue has joined from Arrow McLaren to lead Prema's R&D. Either way, it is far from ideal to be less than six weeks from the first race of the season and not have an head of engineering in place.
Regardless of whether Cannon is there or not, this is a new team starting from scratch. Most teams starting from scratch don't enter a series and immediately start running at the front, especially when all its competitors have been competing with this engine and chassis combination for the last few seasons. There is a bottom that Prema can be above through practical decision making. Breaking into the middle and pushing the upper tier would be unexpected in year one.
We are going to find out how everyone feels in about a week and we will get a true sense of where Prema stands at the preseason test over February 17-18.
2024 Prema Review
Wins: N/A
Best Finish: N/A
Poles: N/A
Best Start: N/A
Championship Finishes: N/A
Robert Shwartzman - #83 Prema Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
6: Free Practice 1 outings in Formula One over the last three seasons, two with Ferrari in 2022 and 2023 and two with Sauber in 2024.
14: Podium finishes in 47 Formula Two starts over 2020 and 2021.
63: Races where Shwartzman and Meyer Shank Racing's Marcus Armstrong were teammates between the Toyota Racing Series, Formula Three and the Macau Grand Prix over 2018 and 2019.
What does a championship season look like for him?
All those years competing in the junior levels of Formula One and driving in the Ferrari Driver Academy pay off and Shwartzman fits in immediately. Every decision Prema makes is golden, and the team cannot be stopped. Shwartzman is making the final round of qualifying and finishing on the podium immediately. It does not take long for victory, and his first two victories come in consecutive races at Barber Motorsports Park and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
The Indianapolis 500 is a learning experience, but the road and street courses in the early summer swing into his favor. He wins again at Road America and Mid-Ohio, and people start believing he is a championship threat. The oval results are a weak spot, but Shwartzman's road course form is sensational, always finishing in the top five and mostly finishing on the podium. It gives him a healthy cushion going into the final two races at Milwaukee and Nashville. In those events, with greater comfort on ovals he gets a pair of top ten finishes and closes out with just enough to clinch a championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Growth. Shwartzman is joining a new series where all the tracks are new and there is an entire discipline of circuit he has never run on before. Not to mention he will be learning all those while driving a new car and doing it all with a team that is entirely new to IndyCar.
If Prema can produce good set ups, Shwartzman should be able to climb into the top ten in a few races, but seeing everything Prema does not know, this team will not be a regular front-runner. It will be starting slow and then getting better. That should be the case for this team across the board. The results at the end of the year should be better than at the start.
Where will it put Shwartzman when it is all said and done? We are expecting 27 full-time drivers. Cracking the top 20 should not feel like a reason to celebrate, but I think that is what we are looking at for a rookie who may score four or five top ten finishes at most over the entire season.
Callum Ilott - #90 Prema Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
17.4: Average starting position in 38 IndyCar starts.
16.7: Average finishing position in 38 IndyCar starts.
5: Top ten finishes in 38 IndyCar starts.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Ilott's IndyCar experience coming in handy as Prema comes out with a bang and wins on debut in St. Petersburg. Clearly, everyone thinks that is a fluke and will not happen again, but then Ilott finishes on the podium at Thermal. Ok, third race of the season, something must give. Nope, Ilott wins again, but this one is because of a timely caution and everyone dismisses. Then he finishes eighth at Barber. Most don't think about it. But then Ilott wins the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in convincing fashion and everyone starts coming around that Prema is onto something.
Ovals will be where the team struggles, but Ilott does enough to overcome the deficit, and he gets a top ten in the Indianapolis 500. He remains consistent through June, but others start making up ground. At Mid-Ohio, Ilott wins again. He has a pair of top ten finishes in Iowa, a podium in Toronto and then he closes out his July with a victory in Laguna Seca, putting him in great control of the championship.
A conservative August leads to an Astor Cup celebration in Nashville.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
In two years with Juncos Hollinger Racing, Ilott was 20th and 16th in the championship. Prema will be new but it will not be miles off from where JHR was when Ilott was one of its drivers. Ilott and JHR produced some impressive speed at times and had some head-turning qualifying results. The race results didn't always get there, but he still had good days.
If Prema and Ilott can find qualifying form early, race results will follow. He might not be able to recreate what he did at JHR, but if Ilott can make it out of the first round of qualifying on at least four or five occasions, it will set up the team for its best results.
A top twenty championship finish should be the target for Ilott and company. We know Ilott can get there. There should be some hope that Shwartzman could make it two in the top twenty. If competitiveness is found early, the top fifteen could be within reach.
This will not be a season with a flurry of top five finishes and podium appearances. A combined six to ten top ten finishes is the zone for Prema, to be in the neighborhood with the rest of IndyCar's backhalf of the grid.
The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.
