If it isn't Dixon, it is Palou who is going to complete the unthinkable. Fifteen laps wasn't that crazy, but with the pace Palou was running, it felt he would be right on the edge. It doesn't appear that was the case. No concerns were expressed over Palou's radio in those closing laps. The needed might have been close, but it had belief it would get there. This wasn't Palou's greatest race, but then again, in a choppy Road America race, no one looked that dominate. It wasn't a matter of leading laps today. It was a matter of having the right strategy.
Palou was able to remain in front as this race shuffled about. He didn't get caught in traffic, which cost some other drivers. When it came to the finish, Chip Ganassi Racing placed two of its cars in an advantageous position to win the race. If it wasn't going to be Dixon, it was going to be Palou, and sure enough it played out that way.
Entering this race, everyone tried to make appear the championship is still in play. It isn't. Mathematically, it is as Palou is up 93 points with eight races remaining. It will require someone, whether that be Kyle Kirkwood or Patricio O'Ward, to win four or five or six of the final eight races. Palou isn't going to make mistakes. If he has an off day, it will likely be the only one. Until others start thrashing the competition, Palou will remain in control.
Six victories from nine races. I think we need to start considering the records Álex Palou will be chasing down in the second half of the season.
2. It felt like this was going to fall in Felix Rosenqvist's favor. Rosenqvist made his final stop with 13 laps to go. He was set on fuel and he could fly. He did but he just wasn't running enough laps in the low-1:47 range to do it. Rosenqvist ran the fastest lap of the race on the final lap, 1:46.7814, no other driver ran a sub-1:47 lap in this race, but it was too little too late, as the Swede was 2.1725 seconds off Palou.
Certainly, Rosenqvist had the right strategy. He did not stop under caution at lap 24. He ran the extra four laps before making his third stop, which put him firmly in the spot to make it on one more stop and allow him to run aggressively to the finish. The difference was Palou's pace. Palou had the pace, and the gap was enough that he could hold off Rosenqvist.
I don't think Rosenqvist did anything wrong. He was running at the limit during the final stint and Palou just had the advantage of time. I don't know if anyone else could have run the race Palou did. Take Palou out, Rosenqvist wins today.
3. Santino Ferrucci had enough fuel to finish third and he ran out just after taking the checkered flag. This was another race where the cautions went in Ferrucci's favor. It wasn't until that caution at lap 24 did it look like Ferrucci was going to be in contention for a top ten finish let alone ending up on the podium. Ferrucci was more aggressive in that penultimate stint and made up spots before his final stop. It seemed like some drivers were already saving in that penultimate stint, and Ferrucci took advantage before saving when he needed to in the final laps.
Four consecutive top five results for Ferrucci and the A.J. Foyt Racing team. This was the team's best finish ever at Road America. Things keep falling their way.
4. Kyle Kirkwood was on the same strategy as Rosenqvist, but he got caught in traffic and shuffled back. Kirkwood was caught behind Will Power and Colton Herta before his final pit stop, which allowed Rosenqvist to open the gap and be the only one that could really challenge Palou. On the final stint, Kirkwood came out of the pit lane about seven seconds behind Ferrucci. Once he was in that dirty air, he couldn't get back ahead and Kirkwood finished fourth.
If there was any negative from this day it was Kirkwood kept getting bogged down with cars. In the opening stint, he was better than Palou, but Kirkwood lost two spots when Power forced him wide in Canada Corner. When that happened, Palou slipped ahead of both. That was the story of Kirkwood's day. He probably could have been a little better. This isn't a bad day, but the last person Kirkwood needed to win today ended up winning.
5. I thought stopping at lap 24 was a stretch. At that point, it didn't look like anyone could make it one more stop. They stretched it, but it wasn't easy. Meanwhile, Rosenqvist and Kirkwood stayed out until laps 28 and 29 respectively and could run flat out. Marcus Armstrong also stayed out until lap 29, and it got him a top five finish.
Armstrong was closing on Kirkwood in that final stint as his car was better in dirty air. I think too many teams played it safe today. It made sense to stop under that lap 24 caution, but it forced a lot of guys to slow down and the right call was to run extra laps and stop under green.
Armstrong is not in the top five if he stops under that caution. Meyer Shank Racing made a great call today for both cars.
6. Kyffin Simpson also went 15 laps on his final stint, like his teammate Palou, and it ended up netting Simpson a sixth-place finish, his third top ten result of the season. Simpson had to stretch it, and he was able to make it work. Chip Ganassi Racing has better fuel mileage than probably everyone at this moment. It likely allowed Simpson to run more confidently than others. Everyone who stopped under that lap 24 caution made it on one more stop, but some cut it closer than others. Simpson didn't and he got a bit of a break to finish sixth.
7. Speaking of breaks, David Malukas lost it on his own heading into turn three of the opening lap. Beached, Malukas needed a tow out. He didn't lose a lap, but he lost a top ten position after he had started seventh. If it wasn't for all the cautions, Malukas might not finish in the top 20. He got a break and actually ran a short-stint to make this a four-stop race. It was actually a five-stopper because he stopped after he was pulled from the gravel.
With nothing to lose, Malukas could run the aggressive strategy and it got him a top ten finish when he really didn't deserve one today.
This was another race where Malukas tripped over himself. He was seventh, but he didn't run well after that opening lap incident. This kind of masks his problems.
8. Nolan Siegel was eighth. I don't know how he was eighth, but he was. Siegel made pit stops at lap 12, 24, 26, 32 and 45. He and Malukas each stopped on lap 32 to split the end of the race in half and run harder. That likely helped, but this result was more down to the cautions than anything Siegel really did.
9. Starting 25th meant Scott Dixon had to do things differently. Dixon stopped under the opening caution for Malukas being beached, and he went long on that second stint, going to lap 22. It is Scott Dixon and when it comes to fuel mileage, it will play out in his favor more times than not. With how this race played out, he had to make a pit stop with 17 laps to go. Even Dixon wasn't going to make that work, but with a splash-and-go with two laps remaining, he still finished ninth.
I am not sure how else Dixon would have finished ninth today without this strategy. At best, you are picking up three spots per stint. If this was a clear race with three stops all about 14-15 laps apart, Dixon might finish 12th or 13th, but that isn't a top ten.
Dixon's group played a strategy for the best of the #9 Honda team and also for Chip Ganassi Racing as a whole. Without Dixon, I am not sure Palou make his strategy work. Ferrucci and others stretched it 16 laps, but Palou likely benefitted from the draft. Without it, there is a chance Palou has to run a slower pace and Rosenqvist is able to chase Palou down. It is not a victory for Dixon, but this is a case where he played a big role in another Ganassi triumph.
10. Rinus VeeKay rounded out the top ten, and that was despite at drive-through penalty. VeeKay did 16 laps in the final stint. I don't think he did anything spectacular. Nothing stood out about his performance, and frankly everyone that finished outside the top ten was a bit of a mess. It felt like every two laps, someone dropped four spots because of an on-track battle during that final stint. Those guys were all over the place saving fuel but also battling on track.
11. Louis Foster started on pole position but he did not have a car set up to lead from the start. Scott McLaughlin took the lead immediately and Foster kept losing spots. On the second stint, Foster took on the primary tire and it sent him backward again. His day leveled off just outside the top ten.
I wish we got a cleaner race and it was not a mess on pit strategy because I think that would have given us a better clue on where Foster was on pace. This race is a little flattering, but he likely finishes ahead of Simpson, Malukas, Siegel, VeeKay and probably even Ferrucci if there aren't all the cautions. It might have been better than 11th or it could have been 11th but with a few different drivers ahead of him.
12. The best Team Penske finisher was Scott McLaughlin in 12th, as this was another terrible day for IndyCar's most successful team.
McLaughlin was saving fuel heavily in the final stint, and it cost him a top ten finish, but he didn't have the cleanest day. At one point, he dropped his tires off the track heading down to turn five. It was a needless error that cost him time.
That was the story of Team Penske's day. Self-inflicted errors.
Will Power was all over the place and eventually spun on his own. Power still recovered to finish 14th as he didn't hit anything spinning on exit of Canada Corner.
Josef Newgarden hit the barrier after spinning on exit of turn 14. This was going to be at top ten day for Newgarden and he couldn't get out of his own way. It might have been a top five result if things fell right.
The pace is there, but all three of these drivers are lost at the moment. It doesn't help that there is a mess behind the scenes. Roger Penske needs to get his house in order.
13. Alexander Rossi was in the same boat as Scott Dixon. Rossi had to stop a few laps earlier for his splash of fuel. All he could get out of it was 13th. This wasn't a great weekend for Rossi and Ed Carpenter Racing. They struggled for speed all weekend. I think they will see 13th as a kind result.
14. There is one guy that should be the most disappointed after today's race because he probably should have won or at least been the one breathing down Álex Palou's neck.
It is Christian Lundgaard. Lundgaard was leading Rosenqvist and Kirkwood on their strategy. Lundgaard had a gap over both of them and he was positioned to be leading those guys as we entered the final stint. But Lundgaard spun when he went wide in Canada Corner attempting to pass Colton Herta, and Lundgaard lost it over the bumps.
That was race over for Lundgaard. He went from likely leading the charge in the final stint to last car on the lead lap in 24th at the checkered flag.
This was a massive miss for Lundgaard. He was about two seconds up the road from Rosenqvist when he spun. Give him those two seconds and all that clear track Rosenqvist saw in the final laps, I think Lundgaard is in prime position in a late battle with Palou. If Lundgaard was within two seconds of Palou with say eight laps to go, I don't think Palou would have been able to hold Lundgaard off.
This was a big miss for Lundgaard on a day when he really could have won over his team. The second quarter of the season hasn't been as great as the first for the Dane, but he could have used this race as a tone-setter for the final half of the season that is about to begin. It certainly set a different tone.
15. Callum Ilott was 15th and that is fine. It could have been better. It could have been worse.
Colton Herta and Patricio O'Ward could not get away from one another in that final stint, and they both lost out finishing 16th and 17th respectively. Both those guys were closer to McLaughlin and around Power, and they both fell backward. In a clearer race, I think both guys are finishing the top ten.
Christian Rasmussen did nothing brilliant and was 18th. Same for Devlin DeFrancesco in 19th. Graham Rahal started well, but at one point Rahal was shuffled off course and that ruined his race. Rahal was better than 20th today.
Marcus Ericsson is a mess and was 21st. Conor Daly continues to be a mess and was 22nd. Jacob Abel got a lead lap finish in 23rd, so that is a slight improve.
Sting Ray Robb lost it under braking, but Robb does come off as someone who never makes a mistake. That looks like Robb was a little too aggressive and it put himself into the barrier.
We never got to see what happened to Robert Shwartzman that caused him to end up in the barriers early. That is a rough way to follow up your first career top ten finish.
16. This was a messy race, and it allowed the cars to be close and competitive. It also allowed the variety of pit strategy we saw, but this wasn't a great representation of how everyone raced today and their true pace.
I wish there was a way we could get cars out of the gravel quicker, especially on lap one. We know turns three and five are going to be trouble areas. Is there a way to have a proactive extraction set up so the car can be pulled out in 20 seconds or 30 seconds? The lap times around Road America is over a minute and 45 seconds. Corner workers could have a minute to get a car out, and I am sure they could do it. I would rather see that over immediately having a caution on the first lap of the race.
Unfortunately, we know IndyCar isn't exploring how to keep races green and get cars out of the gravel in a quicker fashion.
17. IndyCar gets another week off. I know there was a week off between Detroit and Gateway, but it didn't really feel like we had a break. This one better feel like a break because after next week, IndyCar will have four consecutive race weekends and five races in that time. When that stretch is over, only three races will remain. The season will be over shortly. Enjoy this time before Mid-Ohio.