1. It is never a surprise when Álex Palou wins in the NTT IndyCar Series. Palou was starting on pole position after all for the second race from Iowa Speedway. He set himself up to be the man to beat from the very start, and it looked like he had at least one suitable challenger. Josef Newgarden made himself known early, and it felt like Newgarden was set to get on top after one slipped through his fingers yesterday. Instead, Newgarden was on the wrong side of two cautions while Palou had the cautions fall his way and ultimately take off the pressure.
Twice Newgarden had just made his pit stop from the lead and a caution came out, catching him a lap down. He drove from tenth to first after the first time. Newgarden had a slow final stop, but it felt like this would be his race. Instead, Palou was there for the opportune moments.
Palou was going to finish second if Newgarden had cautions fall in his favor. This wasn’t going to be a lucky win where Palou wasn’t in the picture until running long on one stint. Palou ran up front the entire race. He might not have been the best car, but his team ran the best strategy, and in a way not leading allowed him to run longer. The second time, Newgarden had to run hard to catch up to the leaders. That stop was always going to come earlier than the rest. The one thing he could not afford was a caution. Each time, it came.
After Patricio O’Ward won yesterday, some thought Palou was losing ground. Well, Palou’s victory gives him a 129-point lead and this weekend was a net-gain of four points over O’Ward. Crisis averted. With five races remaining, Palou is looking fine.
As for the record book, this is seven victories from 12 races. There are two ovals (Milwaukee and Nashville), two west coast races (Laguna Seca and Portland) and a foreign trip (Toronto) remaining. He needs to win four of the final five to get the single-season victory record. Three gets him a share. That victory at Mid-Ohio would have gone a long way. His season isn’t over. Palou will win again. The question is how many?
2. Because of that final caution for Colton Herta getting into the wall, it allowed a number of drivers to check a break. Scott Dixon was one of those guys. Dixon might have finished in the top ten without that caution. At one point, Dixon slipped out of the top ten. It was not his strongest day, but the caution elevated Dixon into a podium position.
Dixon didn’t really threaten Palou. He kept him honest, just like Mid-Ohio, but it would have required another error from the Catalan driver for Dixon to get his second victory of the season. It lifted Dixon into third in the championship.
3. Marcus Armstrong was on for a top ten result today before the final caution. The final caution turned what should have been seventh or eighth into third. It is a generous result, but Armstrong has had one of the most unheralded seasons. This is his eighth top ten finish of the season. He is seventh in the championship and ahead of all three Penske drivers. Armstrong should have his future locked down.
4. David Malukas ran well and held his own agains Palou and Newgarden in this race. Malukas would have been on the podium without that late caution. After yesterday where he wasn’t a factor, Malukas kept his name in the game for the entire race. He didn’t lead but he was in the picture. The right run could have led to a big result.
5. Patricio O’Ward couldn’t quite get back into the battle for the win after yesterday. He got stuck around fifth or sixth the entire race. It was hard to pass. You could make a few moves but at some point everyone stalled out. At that point, it came down to others making mistakes. A few times, O’Ward was able to use slower traffic as a pick.
6. That final caution turned nothing into something for Christian Lundgaard. I don’t think he spent a lap in the top ten until the final pit cycle. Then the caution locked Lundgaard into a top ten spot. He had track position and held on to finish sixth. This wasn’t a great weekend for Lundgaard. He struggled. This is a flattering result.
7. Felix Rosenqvist likely would not have finished in the top ten without that late caution. Rosenqvist ran better today than yesterday but he still faded over the course of this race. It is his biggest flaw. Qualifies well, falls from promising positions. It does not matter if it is an oval, road course or street courses. It has still been a good year for Meyer Shank Racing, another step forward after moving forward in 2024.
8. Christian Rasmussen was always in line for a top ten. His race topped out around eighth. Rasmussen looked competitive all weekend. He was aggressive and willing to make some brave moves. This has been a strong sophomore season for the Dane. He is earning himself a third season.
9. Robert Shwartzman likely should not have finished in the top ten, but he raced like he should have been in the top ten, and the final caution put him a spot to finish ninth. Shwartzman lost ground early after he sped on pit lane during his first stop. He drove forward after that though. He didn’t drive into the top ten. This was going to be a 15th-place day before that final caution. Take them however you can get them.
10. We touched upon Josef Newgarden’s two poorly timed pit stops. He looked like the best car, and prior to his second stop of the day, the one where he was caught out the first time, Newgarden was cutting through back-markers. It looked like he had learned from yesterday and was putting traffic between him and Palou. That might have cost him though.
Newgarden made some bold moves, and he was better in traffic. Traffic is what allowed him to close on Palou and Malukas before the final round of pit stops. Newgarden saw that everyone had to stop again and ran hard to push the competition. He was just on the wrong side of the caution again.
For how well he ran, Newgarden made a few errors. He made a few aggressive looks that forced him to back out. His final pit stop was another slow stop and he cycled out of the pit lane behind Malukas after passing him on the track. Newgarden was going to have work to do.
On the final restart, he was in eighth and lost spots. I don’t know how much he was deflated after all the work he did to find himself behind the eight-ball again. Add that on top of yesterday and how this season has gone, it is likely Newgarden is fried mentally. Additional setbacks are grueling.
Considering how this season has gone, this was a good weekend for Newgarden, but it is hard to shake that he should have won one of these races.
11. How the hell did Jacob Abel finish 11th?
I swear I saw him get lapped four times in this race. He obviously got the wave around multiple times and didn’t stop before that final caution. That was a lucky result.
Abel was right ahead of Rinus VeeKay. VeeKay had run well most of today. I don’t think he was behind Abel until the very end.
12. Kyffin Simpson, too! Simpson never looked competitive and then ended up 13th! It shows how important it is to run as long as you can on that final stint. The caution will only help you if you make your final stop as late as possible.
13. I guess the same goes for Louis Foster, the final car on the lead lap in 14th. It was a good result even if he did nothing memorable. The key thing is Foster is making laps and making it to the finish of races.
14. Everyone from 15th on down was off the lead lap.
Santino Ferrucci did not have a strong race. He got into the top ten late, but most of this race he was 14th to 17th. He got caught out by the final caution.
Conor Daly was looking good for a top five, definitely a top ten, but Daly stopped before the final caution and was trapped a lap down. He was much better than 16th today.
Alexander Rossi stopped before the Herta caution and it cost him a top ten. Rossi and Rasmussen were running around each other the entire race.
Kyle Kirkwood went off-strategy and did not stop under the fourth caution for Callum Ilott’s accident. Kirkwood was always going to make one final stop while some thought the leaders could stretch it. Kirkwood had spent the entire race outside the top ten. He had to do something different. I don’t think it would have worked out into a victory if the Herta caution never came out, but I think Kirkwood could have snuck out a top ten result.
Graham Rahal was three laps down in 19th. I don’t know what he did today.
15. This was a rough weekend for Andretti Global. None of the three cars had speed, which is odd considering how they ran last year. Herta hit the wall. Marcus Ericsson hit the wall. Both were apparently tire failures. Coincidentally, these two cautions were the ones that caught out Newgarden. This group will be glad the next race is Toronto.
16. Callum Ilott looked competitive before he spun in turn four. Ilott is being beat by Shwartzman this year. The prior IndyCar experience only gets you so far with a new team, and Ilott has carried this group at times, but it has been surprising that it is Shwartzman pulling out top ten results on ovals while Ilott is retiring from races and making mistakes.
17. Sting Ray Robb had an accident. That is not a surprise. Robb has run better this year. He is still out of his depth.
18. Team Penske could only shake the crappy days for half of the doubleheader weekend. Scott McLaughlin had nowhere to go when Devlin DeFrancesco spun in front of him. Will Power looked racy after starting sixth only to lose an engine after 21 laps. It is hard to fathom this is the kind of season Team Penske is experiencing.
19. We had one fewer driver in this race. Nolan Siegel was not cleared to race after his accident yesterday. Let’s hope Siegel will be cleared for Toronto. But it is Arrow McLaren. We know how they operate.
20. This race was better, and it was good. This is where we need to have an honest conversation about a good race. After the 2013 Indianapolis 500, I got nervous because suddenly we had a “500” with 68 lead changes when two years prior only a handful had seen more than 30 lead changes. I think we focus too much on the numbers, especially since IndyCar shares them and promotes the total number of passes in a race, but a good race isn’t as simple as meeting a quota.
This race had 382 total passes, the most in the last two years at Iowa. It is still miles off the totals from 2023, but we saw Newgarden race down the leaders. We saw side-by-side racing. It was still difficult to pass, and it is frustrating to watch drivers make runs only to get chopped off. In the middle of the stint, it felt like most of the passes came before one car tried to pass another only to lose ground and for the car behind them to have greater momentum to end up ahead.
This was better, but it can take another step. It should feel this difficult to pass at Iowa. The tail end of the field dictated the race more than it ever did from 2007 to 2023.
21. Was this weekend enough to save Iowa? I have already written something for tomorrow, and there are other observations from this weekend on site I will ruminate over the next few days. I don’t think it was enough and even if it was, it was too little too late.
IndyCar did all it could on the racetrack. They were dealt a bad hand last year and knew it wouldn’t get better this year, but the future of this event is more than just what was on-track, though that is the biggest piece of the pie.
22. It was nice going to a different track. It will be nice next week watching Toronto from home. We are halfway through the July marathon.
