Eighteen days from the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season opener, and we move to a team who enters this season looking for its 18th IndyCar championship. This would be its fourth consecutive and sixth in the last seven seasons. Chip Ganassi Racing has never been stronger, and it has previously had some historically dominant periods.
Nothing has changed. Drivers are the same. Management is the same. It gained a new and notable sponsor. Other than that, Chip Ganassi Racing looks the same, and with no changes it is difficult to believe much will be different this season.
At A Glance... Wash, rinse, repeat
What do you want to hear about Chip Ganassi Racing? We know what this team is capable of, and it will likely achieve it again. Chip Ganassi Racing has won five of the last six championships. It has the best driver in IndyCar, and one of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history. It actually has two of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history.
What do think will be different? Ganassi is going to win races, it is going to have two strong drivers, Álex Palou is probably going to win the championship, and we are going to repeat what we have been saying for the entire 2020s.
I don't know what to write about this group. Nothing changed. What is going to change now? Ganassi isn't going to struggle. It is not going to get lost and start making mistakes. The speed isn't going to disappear. Palou is going to be quick everywhere. Scott Dixon is going to be in Palou's shadow to a point where everyone will think he has lost a step but Dixon is still finishing fifth, and no one really cares about Kyffin Simpson's results. Simpson's results are not a reflection of the Ganassi organization's ability.
There are no surprises around this group. It isn't Team Penske, which is bringing in a young driver with a spotty track record to a group that has underground some managerial changes and is coming off its worst season in a quarter-century. It isn't Andretti Global, which has brought in a great driver but one who is over 40 and it is a team that largely under performs. It isn't Arrow McLaren, which is constantly changing drivers and is never satisfied. It isn't Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which is constantly struggling to find speed. Then there is the other half of the grid that seldom win. Until Ganassi shows it has a weakness, it is pointless trying to look for one.
A team needs to beat Ganassi, not impossible, but not something we have seen on a regular basis for quite some time. Can any team do that? Team Penske has done it, but it has been a minute. It has been a little longer for Andretti Global. Arrow McLaren could do it. We need to see it though, and it has proven to be quite difficult.
Until we see it, expect Ganassi to remain on top.
2025 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 9 (St. Petersburg, Thermal Club, Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Mid-Ohio, Iowa II, Laguna Seca, Milwaukee)
Poles: 6 (Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Mid-Ohio, Iowa II, Laguna Seca, Milwaukee)
Championship Finishes: 1st (Álex Palou), 3rd (Scott Dixon), 17th (Kyffin Simpson)
Kyffin Simpson - #8 Sunoco Honda
Numbers to Remember:
6: Top ten finishes in 2025
10: Full-time drivers in which Simpson had more top ten finishes than in 2025
4.29411: Improvement in average finish from 2024 (19.47058) to 2025 (15.17647)
What is the best possible outcome?
An improvement and making a push for the top ten in the championship.
Simpson did look better in his sophomore season, and he had a few races with really good pace. It netted him some strong results. From no top ten finishes to six is a big jump. There were still a few weak weekends and it shows there is still room for improvement. If he can get up to eight or nine top ten finishes, it would be a good step and it will likely see him in the conversation for the championship top ten. It would definitely get him in the top fifteen.
What is realistic?
Simpson's best results came due to some fortunate cautions and strategy in 2025. Take away his fifth at Detroit and third at Toronto and he is likely better than 21st in the championship, but he would not have been as good as 17th. I don't know if he is going to get a top five finish this season. He had three last season, but his overall pace does not suggest that will be a norm for him. He can still be competitive and get a half-dozen top ten finishes, though those finishes will likely be eighths, ninths and tenths.
Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
Numbers to Remember:
2: Fast Six appearances in 2025 (St. Petersburg and Indianapolis 500)
12.647: Average starting position in 2025, his worst since 2005 (12.235)
3: Seasons in the last four with an average starting position worse than tenth
2: Seasons from 2001 to 2021 where Dixon had an average starting position worse than tenth. Along with 2005, the other season was his rookie year in 2001 (11.75)
What is the best possible outcome?
Dixon is a six-time championship. Enough said.
To expand on that, Dixon needs to fine a way to beat his teammate, which is trying to get from fourth to first in Dixon's case, and it wasn't long ago the New Zealander was the driver to beat at Chip Ganassi Racing. Few can match Dixon's consistency, and if Dixon remains consistent with any slip up from Palou, it could be Dixon controlling the championship even if he isn't winning eight or nine races. Dixon can be champion with three victories and 13 top five finishes. Few are going to be able to match that. If one of those three victories was the Indianapolis 500, it would be the cherry on top.
What is realistic?
It is realistic Dixon does not win a race this season.
Let's just cover that straight up. Dixon could fail to win a race this season and it not be a disaster. You know why? Because Dixon was about six laps away from not winning a race n 2025 if Palou did not fall off the road from the lead at Mid-Ohio. Even if Palou had remained on the track, Dixon still would have finished second in that race and he still would have been third in the championship. A streak would have ended but in no way would it suggest Dixon had lost something. It just wasn't his year.
It was only three years ago we went into the final four races and Dixon did not have a victory. He then won three of the final four. Just based on Dixon's consistency and the longevity of it, he is good enough to be the best for at least one race. It could be better than that and he could pull in multiple victories.
In the last 21 seasons, Dixon has finished in the top three of the championship 16 times. He has not finished worse than sixth since 2005. We know what Dixon can do.
Álex Palou - #10 DHL Honda
Numbers to Remember:
12: Palou was first in 12 statistical categories in the 2025 season (Victories, podium finishes, top five finishes, top ten finishes, pole positions, Fast Six appearances, Fast 12 appearances, races led, laps led, fastest laps, average starting position, average finishing position)
3.352: Average starting position in 2025
4.0588: Average finishing position in 2025
98: Career starts
What is the worst possible outcome?
We know the best possible outcome for Palou. He has won three consecutive championships, but what is Palou's worst possible outcome for the season? How bad could 2026 be?
That is much harder to answer.
He is going to win at least one race. The worst possible 2026 season for Palou at Chip Ganassi Racing still includes one victory. It likely includes two. He isn't going to slow down, and he will likely still be a regular podium finisher. Five podium finishes feels like the lowest possible total for Palou. He is going to get two or three on road courses. He is going to get another two or three on street courses. Even on ovals he is likely good for one podium finish if not more. He could get two podium finishes in each discipline and we could view that as a dreadful season.
A worst possible outcome includes some unfortunate results, which have largely been avoided in Palou's IndyCar career. This season would need to be a market correction of sorts. Something that looks like a Josef Newgarden season in recent years. Bad pit stops, collateral damage when other cars spin or miss a braking point, maybe a mechanical issue or two. There would need to be a slump, a genuine slump and not just one bad result because David Malukas' talent is limited. A three-race run outside the top ten with at least a pair of those outside the top fifteen would be a shock when it comes to Palou.
However, even in Palou's worst possible season, it is probably still a pretty strong season. He might have four bad races, five tops, but it would still include a dozen good races.
The worst possible outcome is dropping to sixth or seventh. He has only one victory, he still has five podium finishes, but those four or five bad races take down his points total. A few early retirements mean he is finishing outside the top twenty and scoring single-digit points. While he has a bunch of podiums, he gets stuck in the back half of the top ten in more races. Finishes of seventh, eighth and ninth are good, but not great.
Meanwhile, a combination of Scott Dixon being Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin both rising after a down season, Patricio O'Ward remaining a hassle, Will Power settling in nicely at Andretti Global, and Kyle Kirkwood running well sees Palou fall down to seventh. It is not great in Palou's terms but it could still be much worse.
What is realistic?
Again, we know Palou can be champion. It feels more likely he will be champion than not be champion, but let's reframe realistic in terms of the history book. Palou is a driver with three consecutive championships and four total. He could win a fourth consecutive championship and join Sébastien Bourdais as the only drivers with four consecutive titles. That is realistic. It isn't crazy to think it would happen.
In terms of career victory, Palou enters this season with 19 victories. One more and Palou hits the 20-milestone, a good total to reach. If he wins eight races again, he will end with 27, which would put Palou level with Johnny Rutherford in 15th all-time.
It isn't impossible, but eight victories in a second consecutive season is a stretch. Only once in IndyCar history has a driver won at least eight races in consecutive seasons. That was someone called Mario Andretti in 1966 and 1967.
Six victories would still be a great season even if it is fewer than the previous season. IndyCar could tighten up quickly, but Palou will remain one of the best. Three or four victories is a great win total in nine seasons out of ten. Three victories would put Palou level with Tony Bettenhausen and Emerson Fittipaldi in the record book, and Palou is only in his seventh IndyCar season. Four victories for Palou puts him on 23 and it would put him tied for 20th all-time with Tommy Milton.
That is within reach.
That is within reach.
The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.
