1. Tires, tires, tires. IndyCar's return at Phoenix came down to a decision after the caution came out when Will Power slowed on circuit with a cut tire from contact with Christian Rasmussen while battling for the lead. There were about 40 laps to go, and with how tires wore during the race, a 20-lap difference could be a deciding factor at the end of a long run.
Josef Newgarden's team decided to stop while eight of the 15 cars on the lead lap decided to stay out. Newgarden had work to do, but he had just under 40 laps to work with when the race restarted. The advantage would come late in the stint. He was not going to move from ninth to first in three laps.
When the tire advantage swung in Newgaden's favor, it swung mightily. Rasmussen faded after a second brush with the barrier exiting turn two. Kyle Kirkwood tried again to pull out a victory with an alternate strategy, but Newgarden had the speed and was no match.
It was not a beat down performance as we have become accustomed to seeing from Newgarden on a short oval, but he remained alive when the race bunched up at the end. Newgarden had been here before and taking tires was an offensive move. Prior to the caution, it was going to be a top five finish. Staying out was not going to get him the victory. With a set of tires to burn, Newgarden went for it, and though he had been snake-bitten taking chances over the last few seasons, it was worth the gamble.
Newgarden didn't rush. He let the tires come to him and made moves. He first had to pass O'Ward, who also stopped under that final caution. For a moment, it looked like O'Ward was going to be the challenger, but O'Ward's car did not work as well in traffic. Newgarden's did, and once ahead of O'Ward, the Tennessean had a clear view at the lead.
The victory gives Newgarden the championship lead, but as he pointed out in his victory lane interview, it is still early. He should be pleased though. For two years, things have spiraled on Newgarden and his rough days have been particularly deflating. We have seen a different Newgarden in recent years. This season is starting on the right track.
2. Kyle Kirkwood's team went slightly off-strategy again, and in the middle of the race, Kirkwood's team did not come in under a caution when the team had just changed tires 13 laps earlier. That was the sweet spot. A team could run most of a stint and hold on with about ten-lap older tires. Kirkwood remained at the front as the final pit window approached. Kirkwood had done well, but he had to take a leap to get to the front. It worked, and the car held its own.
After Rasmussen's contact with the wall, it looked like Kirkwood had a better chance to pull out a victory, but he did not pull ahead of Rasmussen immediately, and when he finally took the lead, Newgarden was too close. Kirkwood could not hold off the Penske driver.
You would think Kirkwood would be disappointed with this result, but like St. Petersburg where fourth was better than it could have been, second is much better than it was likely going to turn out had he not taken a risk. Qualifying can still be improved upon, but in two races this team has not let a bad start get them down.
3. It felt like this weekend was destined for David Malukas, and pole position was the first step to a memorable weekend. Malukas had a good first stint, but he lost time on the first stint running long, and it buried him in the middle of the top ten. That is where he spent most of the race. Malukas didn't stop for tires under the final caution to gain a few more spots, and it worked out to be a podium finish.
It could have been worse. I don't think the race is a major missed opportunity. However, I don't know if Malukas could have done what Newgarden did. That car was hooked up and Newgarden has a level of confidence to overcome such a deficit in the closing stages. Not every race will turn out this way, but Malukas stood out in his first oval weekend with Team Penske, and that was expected.
4. For a moment, Patricio O'Ward was lined up to steal the show. It had been a good day, but it did not feel like a race O'Ward was going to win until he was ahead of Newgarden after the final restart. Leading the drivers on the freshest tires, O'Ward was on point to drive to the lead. It was working until he hit fourth, and then he stalled out. He could not get ahead of Malukas, and Newgarden had the legs to keep moving forward.
It is not that big of a loss because O'Ward should have been happy with a top five from the start, but with how the final laps lined up, it could have been more. It was a good race for O'Ward.
5. Marcus Armstrong will not get enough love for this result, but he drove well all race. Armstrong had good pace at the end of stints. It allowed him to maintain track position as he was better on his tires. A slow final stop nearly cost him, but he stayed out on the final caution and was looking for a better result playing defense. It worked.
We have seen how Armstrong races and how he has found a good foundation in the middle of the top ten. He does a good job getting a little more out of equipment. Can the day come where he takes a sixth-place car and put it in a fight for victory? He drives smart. It could come sooner than we realize.
6. This was an odd day for Alexander Rossi because he lost ground early and it was looking as if this would be a disappointing result. The late caution gave Rossi new life as he took on tires, and it was his only choice to salvage a result. He made some passes and ended up taking sixth.
It should sting that he could not keep up with his Ed Carpenter Racing teammate Rasmussen despite starting 12 spots ahead of him in sixth. It mirrored Milwaukee in the sense Rossi had a good car, but he could not keep up with his teammate when the car was clearly there. He isn't the lead driver at ECR, and I don't think he can wrestle back that spot.
7. Scott Dixon tried a few different things on strategy and it netted him a seventh-place finish. Dixon didn't have a great car today, but he can drive smart and use strategy to his favor. After how St. Petersburg ended, Dixon needed a complete race and a good result. He got that in Phoenix.
8. Scott McLaughlin was not a factor in this race, and that was a surprise. Even during the pit cycles where drivers came and went and ground could be made stopping early, McLaughlin never found an advantage. Even though he took tires under the final caution and he did drive to eighth, he didn't have what it took to blitz through the field. It was a little odd that he wasn't closer to his teammates in this one.
9. Graham Rahal had a good day to finish ninth. Rahal spent most of the race in the top ten. He lost ground from starting third, but last season there was no prayer of a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing car spending this much time in the top ten on an oval. This should be a cheerful weekend for RLLR and a move in the right direction.
10. I don't know how Kyffin Simpson finished tenth. He took tires under the final caution, that is how, but he didn't have a great race. Most of it was spent outside the top ten. He held onto the lead lap, and it allowed him to get a few extra spots in the final stint. Take them anyway you can get them.
11. It was a little stunning how far off A.J. Foyt Racing was this weekend. To their credit, Santino Ferrucci got better over every stint of the race, but this team starts behind and makes up ground regularly. There is a limit on how well it will finish if it is always starting between 16th and 22nd. Ferrucci stayed out under the final caution because it lifted him to a top five spot, but he was a sitting duck. Eleventh is about right.
12. Felix Rosenqvist didn't do much today, but considering how yesterday started, not doing much, avoiding trouble and being able to finish on the lead lap in 12th is a good day.
13. Christian Lundgaard was nowhere this weekend. Qualifying 17th, he never factored in for a top ten finishing position. Lundgaard's oval form has improved, but it is still a weak spot, and he is not at a point where he can go to a new oval and be quick. Ovals take longer for him to learn. I would expect him to make a step forward at Phoenix next year.
14. And we reach Christian Rasmussen, who was probably the driver of the day. Rasmussen was incredible early driving to the front from 18th on the grid. He had the best car, and in the later stints, he was cutting through the field. It didn't matter that four cars leap-frogged ahead by 2.5 seconds because they stopped a half-dozen laps earlier, Rasmussen was going to pass them with ease.
Rasmussen got into a battle with Will Power, who was trying to hold him off on older tires, and exiting turn two, they touched. Power didn't give Rasmussen any room on the outside, and Power gave the Dane an option of lift or make contact. He chose contact, which didn't harm Rasmussen as much as it did Power, as Power suffered a cut tire. Rasmussen's car was damaged, but it was holding on after the restart and he wasn't losing spots.
Rasmussen didn't lose this race because of the contact with Power. Not taking tires was going to be his downfall. Newgarden had the edge. Rasmussen's car was damaged, and then he brushed the wall again. He was on the edge doing all he could to win the race when the car was not as good as those around him with fresher tires.
Even if he doesn't brush the wall the first time after the contact with Power, in the same circumstances, I think tires win and Newgarden takes the victory. Maybe Rasmussen isn't slipping over the edge and hitting the wall a second time. Maybe he can take second while Newgarden wins.
It stings because Rasmussen was the best driver today, and even though he found something that clicks with ECR, there is no guarantee this speed will last, and Rasmussen knows it. After the second hit with the wall, it all unraveled, and he dropped to 14th.
15. Let's talk about Power because he did finish 16th and only lost a lap. Power was on the same strategy as Kirkwood, and Power looked poised to get a better finish than Kirkwood.
It was not the cleanest move on Rasmussen, but it wasn't dirty. Power didn't drive Rasmussen into the wall. Power forced Rasmussen to make a choice that was never going to be beneficial to Rasmussen, and that is what the leader can do to a driver trying to make a pass late on the outside. Rasmussen was a little ambitious, and could have waited until he was more alongside on the outside in a lap or two, or waited and found a way to the inside, perhaps going into turn one.
Power is a veteran and he rolled the dice thinking he could get a young driver to blink. Rasmussen didn't, but in the end, neither won the race, and that was the best of the bad outcomes Power had in mind.
Prior to the accident, Power looked better compared to St. Petersburg. He was running well. The strategy choice allowed him to run at the front, but he was probably going to finish on the podium if the contact didn't occur. These are points lost, a too common result in the last few seasons for Power. It should also be a confidence boost for Arlington.
16. It feels wrong to skip Dennis Hauger, but Hauger spun early exiting turn two, kept it off the wall and drove backward down the back straightaway and then resumed the race. It was an impressive example of car control and most veterans couldn't do that let alone a rookie. He was able to finish on the lead lap in 15th. That is all he could ask for. He got in 250 laps and learned something.
When Hauger spun, it felt like the day was going to be a disaster for Dale Coyne Racing as Romain Grosjean was unable to start the race when his car had a clutch failure on the grid. This is a moral victory for DCR.
17. There are a handful of drivers we don't need to talk about.
Marcus Ericsson didn't run well and his dice roll on strategy put him a lap down.
At least Caio Collet didn't get into the wall. He didn't do anything great, but he didn't do anything wrong either.
Nolan Siegel was nowhere to be seen all race and finished 20th. Siegel did have a drive-through penalty for blocking, and he was already a lap down. The penalty didn't help his day, but it wasn't going great before that. Does he make it to Mid-Ohio?
Sting Ray Robb could not do much with his career best starting position of 12th and he finished three laps down in 21st.
Louis Foster also brushed the wall and that ended his race, placing him in 23rd. Foster needs to get a top ten finish someday. It wasn't going to be today. Foster wasn't competitive. We know he is quick on road and street courses. It is time to get a result.
18. You would think the Rasmussen-Power incident would be the most notable one of the race, but 20 laps in, Alex Palou and Rinus VeeKay touched exiting turn four and approaching the start/finish line. Palou spun into the barrier and his race was over. VeeKay was damaged, but continued to finish four laps down in 21st.
With this result, Palou dropped out of the championship lead for the first time since June 2024. Palou had a great start to the race, but he was bogged down a little in traffic after the first restart. VeeKay had a run to the outside. Palou was moving up the track.
I don't think anyone was to blame, but making such a move to the outside was a low percentage move for VeeKay. It wasn't the worst move we have ever seen, but 20 laps into the race, I don't think it was worth the risk at that time.
Palou is going to be fine. He had a bad race. He is going to be fine at Arlington and probably win the race.
19. There was some worry heading into this race because IndyCar's last trip to Phoenix was a failure. IndyCar went there for three years, didn't do anything to improve the racing after a processional race the first time, it failed to attract any interest in the market, and it was gone in a blink when it needed an oval event to develop. The good news is this race replicated what we saw at Milwaukee last year and what we have seen at Gateway where tires can wear, cars can start passing, and teams can take swings on strategy. No one felt stuck in traffic in this race, and that is the last thing you want to hear from drivers.
Now, IndyCar must keep this package. This is how the short ovals should race. It had it at Iowa prior to the awful re-pave that only resurfaced the inside lane in the turns. IndyCar must keep this at Gateway, Milwaukee and Phoenix. Don't try to do more. Don't try to play with the downforce. Keep Firestone from dicking around with the tires.
When the tires started to wear, we saw some teams rise and others fall. Teams could roll the dice and stop early to get ground, but then fade. That is fine. If IndyCar is chasing non-stop passing from the drop of the green flag on a short oval, it isn't going to happen, but we saw abundance today because the drivers had to manhandle the cars more and teams took risks hoping to find a better strategy later in a stint.
This was good. It is up to IndyCar not to screw it up.
20. We need to have a deeper conversation about sharing the weekend with NASCAR. More people turned out today than probably showed up for the three IndyCar races between 2016 and 2018 combined. Check one for IndyCar. People showed up. Are they going to continue watching next week at Arlington? Are they going to continue to follow beyond May and into the summer? It looked like 40,000 people showed up when IndyCar couldn't get half of that eight years ago. It is exposure but IndyCar needs exposure to turn into reliable viewers who are going to be there when NASCAR is not around and IndyCar is on its own.
It is a short-gain. How can IndyCar turn it into long-term success?
21. And now another new event. On paper, Arlington appears to be IndyCar's step into the 21st century when it comes to street races. It is a course that is mirroring what Formula One has been doing for the last decade. Spirits have been high for over a year since the event was announced. Now we find out if it is as good as what is being sold. We will find out in eight days.
