Sunday, April 25, 2021

Morning Warm-Up: St. Petersburg 2021

Colton Herta stormed to his first pole position of 2021

Colton Herta picked up his fifth career pole position with a lap of 60.321 seconds around the streets of St. Petersburg. It is Herta's first career pole position on a street course. His father Bryan won pole position for the 2005 St. Petersburg race. This is the fourth track where both Hertas have a pole position joining Portland, Laguna Seca and Mid-Ohio. This is Andretti Autosport's first pole position at St. Petersburg since Tony Kanaan in 2008. Herta ended 2020 with an 11th-place finish at St. Petersburg and he started 2021 with a 22nd-place finish at Barber. He has not had three consecutive finishes outside the top ten finish since the eight-race stretch during his rookie year from Barber through Texas. The last time Herta started on pole position he won at Mid-Ohio, leading a 1-2-3 finish for Andretti Autosport. When his father started on pole position at St. Petersburg in 2005, Andretti ended up with a 1-2-3-4 finish and car #26 was the winner with Dan Wheldon.

Jack Harvey joins Herta on row one for the third time in his career. Harvey was 0.2499 seconds off Herta's pole-winning time. This is the 16th time he has started in the top ten in his IndyCar career. However, he has only finished better than his starting position twice when he has started in the top ten. Harvey will be making his fourth start St. Petersburg start this weekend. It joins the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the IMS road course and Mid-Ohio as the only tracks he has run four times in his IndyCar career. Harvey will make his 35th start this weekend and no driver has ever scored a first career victory in his or her 35th start. 

Josef Newgarden makes his 150th start today from third on the grid. Fittingly, Newgarden is working on his third consecutive St. Petersburg victory. The only tracks he has won three races at are Barber and Iowa. Newgarden failed to complete a lap in a race for only the second time in his career at Barber. The other time was in Newgarden's third start at Long Beach, when contact with Dario Franchitti put him into the turn one tires.

Simon Pagenaud joins his Penske teammate Newgarden on row two. This is Pagenaud's best starting position since he started third in the 2020 season opener at Texas. This is his best starting position on a street course since his pole position at Toronto in 2019. Pagenaud has two podium finishes, four top five finishes and seven top ten finishes in nine St. Petersburg starts. This is only the third time Pagenaud has qualified in the top ten at St. Petersburg.

Sébastien Bourdais ended up fifth on the grid. Bourdais had not started in the top five on a street course since 2016 at Toronto, where he started fifth. Bourdais' last five IndyCar victories have come ninth or worse on the grid. The Frenchman still has not started on the front row for a road or street course since his pole position at Mid-Ohio in 2014.

Patricio O'Ward rounds out row three. O'Ward will make his 24th IndyCar start this weekend. No driver has ever scored a first career victory IndyCar in his or her 24th career start. O'Ward was second at St. Petersburg last year, one of three races where he had a runner-up finish in 2020. No driver has ever won at St. Petersburg from sixth on the grid.

Rinus VeeKay missed out on the Fast Six by 0.0473 seconds, but VeeKay will start seventh. The Dutchman was sixth at Barber, giving him his sixth career top ten finish. This will be VeeKay's 16th career start and 12 drivers have scored their first career victory in their 16th start. Those drivers include Tommy Milton, Ted Horn, Bill Holland, Troy Ruttman, Mario Andretti, Gordon Johncock, Mark Donohue, Danny Ongais, Emerson Fittipaldi and Uncle Jacques Villeneuve. The average start for a driver's first career victory is 17.6942. 

Scott Dixon will start eighth. Of the 25 tracks Scott Dixon has won at in his IndyCar career, only five have been temporary circuits, Edmonton, Belle Isle, Toronto, Houston and Long Beach. He has picked ten of his 50 victories between those five temporary circuits. The only time Dixon has won from eighth on the grid was at Mid-Ohio in 2019. He has not led a lap at St. Petersburg since 2012 and the only other times he has led this race was in 2006 and 2010. Dixon has not led a lap in his last seven starts, his longest streak since the 2017 finale through the first six races of 2018. Chip Ganassi Racing has only one victory at St. Petersburg and it was ten years ago with Dario Franchitti.

Graham Rahal ended up ninth in qualifying. Rahal has not started in the top five at St. Petersburg since he picked up his first career pole position at the track in 2009. Last year, Rahal led two laps at St. Petersburg under caution. Those were his first laps led on the 1.8-mile street course since he took the checkered flag for his first career victory in a wet 2008 race. Rahal won that 2008 race from ninth on the grid with an Andretti Autosport car on pole position. 

Álex Palou aims for his second consecutive victory from tenth on the grid. Palou could become the first driver to pick up his first two victories in consecutive races since A.J. Allmendinger in 2006 when Allmendinger had his first three victories come in successive races. Allmendinger won at Portland, Cleveland and Toronto. Palou has never won on a street course in his junior formula career. He was second in the second race at the 2018 Pau Grand Prix, behind current Super Formula driver Sacha Fenestraz and ahead of current Formula Two driver Marcus Armstrong. Current Haas F1 driver Mick Schumacher was tenth in that race. 

Despite being one of the fastest cars throughout practice, Alexander Rossi ended up 11th in qualifying. The 61 laps Rossi led last year at St. Petersburg are his most laps led in a race he did not win. He has only led more laps in four other races, and he won all of those. Last year, St. Petersburg was one of only three races Rossi led in 2020, matching 2017 for his fewest races led in a season. His first career victory in the 100th Indianapolis 500 came from 11th on the grid, and it remains Rossi's only victory from a starting position outside the top three. 

James Hinchcliffe makes it an all-Andretti row six. This is Hinchcliffe's worst starting position at St. Petersburg since 16th in 2015. He has won the second race of the season twice in his career, NOLA Motorsports Park in 2015 and Long Beach in 2017. Those are the only times Hinchcliffe has finished in the top five of the second race of the season. 

Ryan Hunter-Reay missed out on advancing to round two by 0.0603 seconds and he will start 13th. Hunter-Reay is coming off his worst finish since his engine failure in the 2017 Indianapolis 500 left him 27th. Barber was the fourth time in his career he failed to complete a lap in a race and the first time since the second Road America race last year. 

Scott McLaughlin starts where he finished last week in 14th. McLaughlin was 0.0523 seconds off advancing from the second group in round one. This is his third IndyCar start this weekend. That will tie him with Graham McRae and Matt Halliday for fourth-most starts among New Zealanders. McLaughlin has already surpassed McRae's best career finish of 16th and equaled Halliday's best finish of 14th. 

Takuma Sato qualified 15th. Sato has finished in the top ten in the second race of the season the last two years after never scoring a top ten finish in the second race of his first nine seasons in IndyCar. Sato has finished outside the top twenty on four occasions in the second race of the year, but not since he was 22nd at NOLA Motorsports Park in 2015.

Marcus Ericsson ended 16th on the grid. Ericsson could do something that has only happened once in the history of Chip Ganassi Racing. A victory for the Swede would make the 2021 season only the second time Ganassi has produced multiple first-time winners in one season. The only other time the team did that was in 1996 with Jimmy Vasser and Alex Zanardi. Vasser won four races that season and took the championship. Zanardi won three races and was third in the championship. 

Felix Rosenqvist starts 17th. This is the second time he has failed to make it to the second round of qualifying on a street course. The other time was last year at St. Petersburg when Rosenqvist started 22nd. He has finished outside the top ten in ten of the last 15 races. In 2019, Rosenqvist was in the top five of three of five street course races and he had four top ten finishes in those five races. 

Romain Grosjean will start on the outside of row nine. Last year was the first time in four seasons Dale Coyne Racing did not have a top ten finisher at St. Petersburg. Coyne has three podium finishes at St. Petersburg. The only track where the team has had more podium results is Belle Isle with four. 

Conor Daly rolls off from 19th. Daly has not had a top ten finish in his last eight street course starts. His last top ten finish on a street course was sixth in the second Belle Isle race in 2016. All three of his top ten finishes on street courses have come at Belle Isle. His best St. Petersburg finish was 13th in 2016.

Will Power will start a career-worst 20th at St. Petersburg. Power had qualified on the front row 11 times in 13 St. Petersburg appearances. His previous worst start at St. Petersburg was sixth. This is his worst start on any street course since 23rd for the first Toronto race in 2014. Power has not opened the season with consecutive podium finishes since 2011 when he was second at St. Petersburg and then won at Barber. The only other two times he opened the season with consecutive podium finishes were in 2007, a victory in Las Vegas and third at Long Beach, and in 2010 where he won both São Paulo and St. Petersburg. He won twice from outside the top ten and both were on street courses, Long Beach 2012 from 12th and Belle Isle I 2014 from 16th.

Ed Jones ended up 21st on the grid. Jones has never started better than 15th in this race. This is one of three tracks where he has multiple top ten finishes. He was tenth and eighth in his first two St. Petersburg starts. The only other tracks he has multiple top ten finishes are Long Beach and Belle Isle. 

Max Chilton joins his former Carlin Indy Lights teammate on row eleven. This is Chilton's third consecutive start outside the top twenty at St. Petersburg. Chilton turned 30 years old on Wednesday and he will make his 73rd IndyCar start this weekend. The only driver to score a first career victory in the 73rd start of a career was Roberto Moreno at Cleveland in 2000. 

Jimmie Johnson is set for the first street race of his IndyCar career and his first St. Petersburg start will come from 23rd. He will join Stanton Barrett, Patrick Carpentier, Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish, Jr., Juan Pablo Montoya, Danica Patrick and Scott Sharp as drivers with a NASCAR Cup start and an IndyCar start at St. Petersburg. Only Barrett, Montoya and Sharp had made a Cup start prior to their first St. Petersburg start.

Dalton Kellett rounds out the grid in 24th. Kellett is coming off the best finish of his IndyCar career, as he was 18th at Barber, but that lead lap finish remains missing from his page in the record book. He made 16 starts at St. Petersburg in the Road to Indy. 

NBC's coverage of the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg begins at noon ET with green flag scheduled for 12:42 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 100 laps. 


Thursday, April 22, 2021

Track Walk: St. Petersburg 2021

St. Petersburg is IndyCar's first street race of 2021

The second round of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will be on the streets of St. Petersburg, exactly six months after IndyCar raced on those Florida streets to close out the 2020 season. This will be the seventh time St. Petersburg is not the season opener in its 18-year history. The last time it was the second round of the season was 2010. This is the sixth time St. Petersburg will take place in April, but it will be the first time it has run in April since 2009. St. Petersburg is the second of three consecutive race weekends to open the 2021 season.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at noon ET on Sunday April 25 with green flag scheduled for 12:42 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey and Townsend Bell will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Dave Burns will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Friday:
First Practice: 4:15 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Saturday:
Second Practice: 9:45 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 1:45 p.m. ET * (NBCSN will have tape-delayed coverage at 10:00 p.m. ET) 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 9:05 a.m. ET (30 minutes)*
Race: 12:42 p.m. ET (90 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock.

Newgarden Works on a Hat Trick
Josef Newgarden will be happy returning to St. Petersburg as the Tennessean has won the bayside street race the last two years and he will look to become the first driver to ever win three consecutive races at St. Petersburg. He could become the first driver to win three consecutive races at any street course since Will Power won three consecutive São Paulo races from 2010 to 2012. 

Newgarden will be heading to St. Petersburg off a terrible start to the season after his first lap accident left him with a 23rd-place finish at Barber. It was Newgarden's worst finish since he was 30th in the 2014 Indianapolis 500. It was his worst finish on a road/street course since he was 24th at Sonoma in 2013 with a gearbox failure. 

A poor result in the first race of the season is not the end of the world for a driver, but it is not how many champions start their season. The last five champions started the season with a top ten finish. The last champion to finish outside the top ten in the first race was Scott Dixon in 2015, when Dixon was 15th at St. Petersburg. Dixon's 2015 title is the only time since reunification where the championship did not have a top ten finish in the season opener. 

The last champion to finish outside the top twenty in the first race of the season was Greg Ray, who started the 1999 season with a 21st-place finish at Walt Disney World Speedway before taking the Indy Racing League championship over Kenny Bräck.

This Barber result dropped Newgarden out of the top five in the championship for the first time since he was seventh after the 2018 season opener at St. Petersburg. This is the first time he is outside the top ten in the championship since he was 12th after the 2016 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

Newgarden has finished in the top ten in every St. Petersburg race he has started with Team Penske, however, he had only one top ten result in his first five St. Petersburg appearances, a ninth in 2014. His qualifying average has also improved greatly with Team Penske. His average finish over his first five St. Petersburg trips was 15.6 with his best starting position being tenth. With Team Penske, his average starting position is 6.75 with his worst starting position being 13th.

This will be Newgarden's 150th IndyCar start. He will be the 54th driver to reach that milestone. No driver has ever won in a 150th career start. Tom Sneva was second at Michigan in his 150th start on September 24, 1984. Scott Dixon was second in his 150th start at Chicagoland in 2009.

Andretti's Shot at Redemption
Last year, Andretti Autosport entered St. Petersburg with only one victory in the 2020 season and it started the season finale in impressive fashion. 

Alexander Rossi led, Colton Herta ran in second and James Hinchliffe was third. Marco Andretti and Ryan Hunter-Reay both drove into the top ten after both started outside the top fifteen. However, it all went to pieces in the final third of the race. 

Rossi led 61 of the first 69 laps but got into the marbles in turn three and spun out of the race. Under that caution, Hinchcliffe spun in the final corner and clipped Jack Harvey, knocking both drivers out of the fight for the final podium spot. Andretti was then caught in an accident in turn five and was taken out of the race while in the top ten and looking at his best finish of the season. Herta took the lead, but a turbo issue cost him a few spots and as he fought to get back to the lead, he went into the tires at turn four, dropping him out of contention. 

After having the top three spots for most of the race, the top finishing Andretti car was Ryan Hunter-Reay in fifth. Herta ended up 11th with Hinchcliffe in 14th. Andretti and Rossi were both retirements. 

Andretti Autosport looked to get a better start to its 2021 season than it had in 2020, but it is hard to say they are on the right track after round one. At Texas last year, Andretti had two top ten finishes with Herta in seventh and Hunter-Reay in eighth. At Barber last week, Rossi was the team's only top ten finisher in ninth. Herta and Hunter-Reay were both caught in the opening lap accident and were classified outside the top twenty. Hinchcliffe was a lap down in 17th. 

This weekend will not only be a chance to make up for the St. Petersburg loss last year but it is a chance to turn the 2021 season opener at Barber into a mulligan. 

Rossi qualified second last year at St. Petersburg and he was second on the grid at Barber. Prior to his retirement last year, Rossi had five consecutive top five finishes on street courses and eight top five finishes in his last ten street course races. He has led laps in his last three St. Petersburg starts. 

Herta's team was able to repair his car at Barber, but he only made 25 glorified shakedown laps before settling for a 22nd-place result. Herta's best finish on a street course remains his eighth-place finish at St. Petersburg in 2019, the second start of his IndyCar career. He qualified third last year. He has started in the top five in four of his last five starts and he has started in the top ten in 13 of the last 15 races.

Hinchcliffe is the only driver in the Andretti team with a victory at St. Petersburg. His first career victory came in the 2013 race. The Canadian has started in the top ten in seven of nine St. Petersburg starts. He has completed 968 of a possible 970 laps in this race. 

Hunter-Reay has four top five finishes in the last five St. Petersburg races, and he has three podium finishes, six top five finishes and seven top ten finishes at St. Petersburg in the DW12-era. However, he has only led eight laps in 14 St. Petersburg starts.

Andretti Autosport failed to put a car in the top five of four races last year, both Iowa races, the Indianapolis 500 and the second Gateway race. The team failed to get a top five finish in the 2019 season finale at Laguna Seca. The last time Andretti Autosport did not have a top five finisher in consecutive road/street course races was in 2016 when the team did not have a top five finisher at Long Beach, Barber, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis nor the first Belle Isle race. 

Palou's Start
The new man of the hour in IndyCar is our most recent new race winner. Álex Palou's victory at Barber Motorsports Park made him the third driver to win on their Chip Ganassi Racing debut, joining Michael Andretti at Surfers Paradise in 1994 and Dan Wheldon at Homestead in 2006. While many are excited for this emerging talent, recent first-time winners have a history of a hangover. 

Prior to Palou, there have been 15 first-time winners since reunification. Eleven of the 15 winners did not finish in the top ten in the next race and seven of those finishers were outside the top fifteen. The last first-time winner to finish in the top five in his next start was Takuma Sato, who was second at São Paulo after winning at Long Beach. The only other first-time winners since reunification to get top five results in their next starts were Mike Conway and Ryan Briscoe. 

First career victories are not necessarily a sign of a strong championship finish either. Only two of the 15 first-time winners since reunification finished in the top five of the championship in the season of their maiden victory. Briscoe was fifth in 2008 and Simon Pagenaud was third in 2013. Eight of the drivers finished outside the championship top ten with five of those drivers finishing outside the top fifteen, although one of those was Ed Carpenter, who was part-time in 2011.

Palou had his day in the sun in Barber and there are plenty of other drivers who could be set for a breakthrough in St. Petersburg. Eleven of the 24 St. Petersburg entries do not have an IndyCar victories. Palou became the 15th consecutive first-time winner to not have finished in the top five in the start prior to his first career victory. Graham Rahal is the last first-time winner to have finished in the top five the race before. Rahal was fourth at Mexico City in 2007 before he won at St. Petersburg in 2008.  

There have not been consecutive first-time winners to open an IndyCar season since the 1996-97 Indy Racing League season when the first four races had first-time winners, starting with Scott Sharp at Loudon, with Richie Hearn following at Las Vegas, Eddie Cheever next at Orlando and Jim Guthrie concluded that stretch with a victory at Phoenix. Dating back to the previous season, Buddy Lazier's Indianapolis 500 victory extends that streak to five consecutive first-time winners. 

Variety on Top
Six different teams were represented in the top seven finishers at Barber and eight different teams were represented in the top ten in the season opener. 

Will Power was second to Palou and it was the 82nd podium finish of Power's IndyCar career, moving him into sole possession of tenth all-time. It was Power's best finish at Barber since his victory at the track in 2012. Power is masterful in qualifying at St. Petersburg with nine pole positions in 13 appearances. His worst qualifying position was sixth in 2009, his first race with Team Penske when he drove the #3 Dallara-Honda in place of Hélio Castroneves, as Castroneves was on trial for tax evasion. 

Patricio O'Ward drew much attention at Barber Motorsports Park, especially after his pole position. However, after struggling with the alternate tires and running a three-stop strategy, O'Ward had to fight from behind and he could only finish fourth. It was his third consecutive top five finish dating back to last season, which included a runner-up finish behind Newgarden at St. Petersburg in October. 

Sébastien Bourdais picked up A.J. Foyt Racing's second consecutive top five finish with his fifth-place result at Barber. It was Bourdais' third consecutive top five finish at Barber. Foyt has not had three consecutive top five finishes since 2001-02 when Donnie Beechler was fifth at Chicagoland and Eliseo Salazar ended 2001 with a fourth at Texas and Salazar opened 2002 with a fifth at Homestead and fourth at Phoenix. Bourdais has not had three consecutive top five finishes since 2007 when he had a victory at Edmonton, a fourth at San Jose and victories at Road America and Zolder. 

Rinus VeeKay pulled out a sixth-place finish despite starting 14th and spinning to avoid the opening lap accident at Barber. VeeKay also pulled this off with a broken thumb. The Dutchman was 15th in his St. Petersburg debut. He won three of his six Road to Indy starts at the track. 

Graham Rahal scored a seventh-place finish at Barber, only the third Rahal has picked up a top ten finish in a season opener. It was Rahal's sixth consecutive top ten finish dating back to last season. His longest top ten streak is eight races, which he has achieved on three separate occasions. His first career victory came at St. Petersburg, but he has only two top ten finish finishes in his last ten St. Petersburg starts. 

Romain Grosjean ended up tenth in his IndyCar debut, the top rookie finisher and the top Dale Coyne Racing finisher. It was the fourth time in the last five seasons Dale Coyne Racing had at least one top ten finisher in the season opener. Grosjean was 21st and 17th in his first two practice sessions at Barber before ending up second in his first round qualifying group and ultimately ending up seventh on the grid. 

While there were eight teams in the top ten at Barber, Chip Ganassi Racing put three cars in the top ten. 

Scott Dixon was third at Barber, his ninth podium finish at the 2.3-mile road course. It was Dixon's third consecutive season opener with a podium finish and the fourth time he has opened a season with a podium in the last five years. While Dixon has made it a habit to start the season with some hardware, last year was the first time he opened a season with consecutive podium results since 2012. He has five consecutive top ten finishes at St. Petersburg with four podium finishes, six top five finishes and eight top ten finishes in the last nine St. Petersburg races. 

Marcus Ericsson was eighth in car #8 for the season opener. Ericsson had to conserve fuel in the closing laps at Barber and it cost him a few positions. The Swede did make the Fast Six for the first time in his IndyCar career last week as Ganassi was the only team to have multiple participants in the final round of qualifying. 

Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series are back in action at St. Petersburg and all three series will run doubleheaders. 

Linus Lundqvist is out to an early lead in the Indy Lights championship off his victory and runner-up finish at Barber. The Swede sits on 57 points, 13 points ahead of Devlin DeFrancesco. DeFrancesco was third in both Barber races. 

David Malukas had contact with Kyle Kirkwood at the start of the first race, but Malukas rebounded to win race two and he sits third in the championship on 40 points, one point ahead of Benjamin Pedersen, who was runners-up in race one. Toby Sowery has 38 points after a pair of fourth place finishes at Barber. Alex Peroni is in sixth with 32 points. 

Kyle Kirkwood was ninth and fifth in the opening weekend and those results have him down in seventh on 29 points, three points ahead of the 2020 Indy Pro 2000 champion Sting Ray Robb, who was eighth in both races. A left front tire puncture cost Robert Megennis a top five in the second Barber race and he enters St. Petersburg ninth in the championship on 23 points, tied with Danial Frost, who also suffered a tire failure late at Barber.

Nikita Lastochkin and Christian Bogle are tied on 22 points. Antonio Serravalle rests at the bottom with 19 markers. 

Indy Lights will race at 3:20 p.m. ET on Saturday April 24 with ice two scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on Sunday April 25.

Braden Eves leads the Indy Pro 2000 championship into St. Petersburg with 51 points after a victory and a fourth at Barber. Eves' Exclusive Autosport teammate Artem Petrov is second in the championship with 47 points after a second and a third at Barber. Barber race two winner Hunter McElrea sits on 45 points in third. 

Christian Rasmussen lost the victory in the second Barber race after being handed a blocking penalty. Rasmussen is fourth in the championship on 37 points. Reece Gold and Jacob Abel are tied for fifth with 30 points. Gold was third in the first Barber race while Abel's best finish was fifth in the second race. 

Enaam Ahmed has 29 points, one point ahead of Colin Kaminsky and four points ahead of Cameron Shields. Wyatt Brichacek rounds out the top ten on 22 points. Hunter Yeany and Enzo Fittipaldi are tied on 20 points. Flinn Lazier has 17 points, one ahead of James Roe. Kyffin Simpson has 14 points. Manuel Sulaimán was disqualified from race one due to an infringement found in post-race inspection. Sulaimán has 13 points, one ahead of Jack William Miller.

The first Indy Pro 2000 race will be at 11:50 a.m. ET on Saturday April 24 with the second race at 8:00 a.m. ET on Sunday April 25.

Prescott Campbell opened the season with a second and a first in U.S. F2000 at Barber and the American has 56 points, a 12-point lead over Josh Pierson, who was third in both races. Yuven Sundaramoorthy won the first race at Barber, but he was tenth in the second race and he sits on 43 points. Nolan Siegel was 11th and second at Barber, giving Siegel 37 points. 

Christian Brooks rounds out the top five on 34 points after finishing fifth in both Barber races. Michael d'Orlando is on 31 points, one point ahead of Kiko Porto. Josh Green has 26 points, two points more than Spike Kohlbecker and three points more than Billy Frazer. 

Jace Denmark has 22 points, a point ahead of Thomas Nepveu. Myles Rowe and Jackson Lee are tied on 16 points. Rowe was caught in an opening lap accident in race one and finished sixth in race two. Lee had an electrical issue keep him from qualifying for the second Barber race, but he went from 26th to 14th, the biggest mover of the race. 

Both U.S. F2000 races will be on Saturday April 24. The first race will be at 10:55 a.m. ET and the second race will be at 5:20 p.m. ET.

Fast Facts
This will be the fourth IndyCar race to take place on April 25 and the first since Mike Mosley won at Trenton in 1971. The other April 25 races were in 1948, when Ted Horn won in Arlington, and 1965, when Jim McElreath won at Trenton. 

Both victories for McElreath and Mosley were their first career IndyCar victories. 

Graham Rahal and James Hinchcliffe are the only drivers to pick up a first career victory at St. Petersburg. 

Josef Newgarden is the only driver to win at St. Petersburg in IndyCar and Indy Lights. 

Ed Jones, Felix Rosenqvist, Colton Herta, Patricio O'Ward and Rinus VeeKay have all won in Indy Lights at St. Petersburg. VeeKay, O'Ward and Conor Daly have all won at St. Petersburg in Indy Pro 2000.

None of the 15 drivers to win at U.S. F2000 at St. Petersburg since 2010 are entered in the IndyCar race this weekend. 

The average starting position for a St. Petersburg winner is 5.823 with a median of fourth. 

Three of the last four St. Petersburg races have been won from a starting position outside the top five.

The pole-sitter has not won at St. Petersburg since Will Power in 2010. 

The fourth starting position has produced the St. Petersburg winner five times, including in four consecutive years from 2013 to 2016.

None of the top five starters at St. Petersburg in 2020 finished in the top ten and seven of the top ten finishes started outside the top ten.

The average number of lead changes at St. Petersburg is 6.588 with a median of seven.

The last four St. Petersburg races have had seven lead changes or more. 

The driver who has led the most laps has won nine of 17 St. Petersburg races.

The most laps led for a St. Petersburg winner was 95 with Hélio Castroneves in 2007. The fewest laps led for a St. Petersburg winner was ten with Dan Wheldon in 2005. 

The average number of cautions at St. Petersburg is 4.352 with a median of five. The average number of caution laps is 19.235 with a median of 20.

Every St. Petersburg race has featured at least two cautions. 

Only five St. Petersburg races have featured less than 15 caution laps. The fewest caution laps were eight in 2017.

Possible Milestones:
If Scott Dixon wins this race, he will become the first driver in IndyCar history to win a race in 19 different seasons. 

If Scott Dixon wins this race, he will tie Mario Andretti's record of 26 different tracks with a race victory

Will Power is one victory away from becoming the fifth driver to win 40 IndyCar races. Power would also break a tie with Al Unser for fifth all-time in IndyCar victories.

Scott Dixon needs to lead 58 laps to become the fifth driver to reach the 6,000 laps led milestone. 

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 43 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead one lap to become the 23rd driver to reach the 2,500 laps led milestone. 

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 51 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Predictions
Alexander Rossi makes up for last year and gets his first victory in almost two years. Will Power will exit as the championship leader. At least three teams will have multiple finishers in the top ten. There will be fewer incidents in turn three than last year. At least five drivers that did not make it out of the first round of qualifying at Barber will make it out this weekend. At least four top five starters finish in the top ten. One driver from outside the top fifteen on the grid will finish in the top ten. James Hinchcliffe will not spin under caution. Scott McLaughlin will complete more than 46 laps and finish better than 22nd. Sleeper: Marcus Ericsson. 


Monday, April 19, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: Should the Indianapolis 500 Remain Double Points?

Álex Palou was the first-time winner many were not expecting at IndyCar's season opener from Barber Motorsports Park, but Palou was the first-time winner we got. Speaking of first-time winners, a famous name won on his European Le Mans Series debut. Marc Márquez made his MotoGP return and was respectable, but not flashy. Mercedes drivers were running into one another and running off course. Aston Martin is becoming a nuisance and not in the good ways. NASCAR did something. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Should the Indianapolis 500 Remain Double Points?
Another IndyCar season is here and as has been a custom to most seasons over the last decade, it is a chance to resurrect the double points debate. 

This season is a bit different from the last few, as a change to the IndyCar rulebook has the Indianapolis 500 listed as the only double points race under rule 12.6.2.1. 

Last year, Indianapolis was the only double points race, but the pandemic and uncertain end date of the season had something to do that. The season finale was not set in stone. With all the changes, we couldn't say a certain race would be the season finale. In theory, the season could have ended at any point. The last thing IndyCar needed was the finale being cancelled, a legal kerfuffle ensuing where the rulebook says the finale awards double points and potentially having to retroactively award points and awarding a champion who initially wasn't the championship leader after the checkered flag at a race that initially wasn't the season finale. 

It made sense last year, and there has already been some uncertainty over this season's calendar. Long Beach was supposed to be yesterday, but the pandemic has delayed that race to the final Sunday in September, the final race of the 2021 season. There is no guarantee Long Beach will happen. It very well could be cancelled again. We are hopeful Long Beach takes place and things should get better over the course of the year. There is a good chance Long Beach could take place and perhaps allow a capacity crowd, but it is not a lock. 

Regardless of what the finale is, the 2021 season is set to be closer to a normal season. This season is not pieced together trying to get in enough races with races slotting into open weekends on a whim. IndyCar made the choice to only list Indianapolis under the double points section of the rulebook. It is scaling back from the "500" and the finale, after both were double points from 2015 to 2019, but should have IndyCar dumped double points altogether? 

Let's go back to when double points were first introduced in 2014. The 2014 season saw Pocono increased to 500 miles and along with Indianapolis and Fontana, the three 500-mile races, were all raised to double points as the three Triple Crown races. Historically, IndyCar series have weighed races differently based on mileage. During the days of USAC, the winners points total was double the mileage, hence the Indianapolis 500 winner got 1,000 points while the winner of the 150-mile race at Milwaukee got 300 points. 

That point system was phased out when CART became the top series, and a uniform system has remained in place for basically the last 40 years. One thing double points did in 2014 with the Triple Crown races is it made the number of maximum possible points on ovals closer to equal to the number of maximum possible points on road and street courses, despite there being half the number of ovals. A total of 515 points were available on the oval races while 648 points were available on the road and street courses. 

In a series that promotes schedule diversity, IndyCar has seen the balance tipped in favor of road/street courses two-to-one and double points made both disciplines close to level. After only one year, double points were then awarded only to Indianapolis and the finale. 

There has been some debate over fairness and whether the finale should specifically be worth double points. There has been a resistance to IndyCar ginning up the championship battle and diminishing a full season of results. I was not a fan of the finale specifically being a double points race, especially when it was just a normal road course race such as Sonoma, but I understood it, and a driver could still clinch a championship early. It just required a driver to win by more points, basically a two-race advantage instead of one. 

However, now that the finale appears to be back to normal points, is there any reason Indianapolis should remain worth double points? 

People will point to its prestige and length. It is the one IndyCar race people know about and it is the only 500-mile race on the calendar since Pocono fell off the schedule after 2019. However, it does weigh one race over the rest in the championship. Should success in the Indianapolis 500 mean more toward the championship? 

Even in its current iteration, it is not like the 1950s or 1960s where Indianapolis 500 victory almost guaranteed a driver a top five championship finish. Rodger Ward won the 1962 title by 510 points over A.J. Foyt despite starting four fewer races than Foyt. Ward won Indianapolis while Foyt lost a wheel after 70 laps and was classified in 23rd. Dan Gurney was fourth in the 1969 championship despite starting only nine races compared to Mario Andretti's 24 starts, Al Unser's 19 starts and Bobby Unser's 21 starts. Gurney's second at Indianapolis accounted for 35% of his points total. 

However, with Indianapolis being the only double points race in 2020, Scott Dixon won the title by 16 points over Josef Newgarden. If Indianapolis had been normal points, Newgarden would have won the title by one point over Dixon. It is not like Dixon had a great day while Newgarden ran poorly or had an accident. Dixon was second and Newgarden was fifth. 

Many will argue Dixon was the best driver all season in 2020 and he deserved the championship and that is fair. Double points have not tainted any championships since 2014. Every champion passes the eye test and there have usually been 15 other races that factor into deciding who is champion. None of the champions had two strong double points races and ended up on top. The system is set up where because there are so many other normal points races a driver can't just get lucky, win both double points races and end up champion. 

Double points might gift a driver an extra two or three spots in the championships, but Takuma Sato was still only seventh in 2020. If Indianapolis had been normal points Sato would have been ninth. We haven't seen double points lift a driver nine or ten spots in the championship, nor is it likely that would ever happen. 

Indianapolis already awards more points for qualifying and I can live with that because it is a different process that involves increased risk. I can even live with IndyCar having the same number of maximum possible points for oval races and road and street courses, which would mean different points payouts as there are 13 road/street courses and four oval races, but in its current form, if 16 races are going to be worth the same then Indianapolis mind as well award the same points as well. 

No driver needs more incentive to win Indianapolis. Some drivers even think Indianapolis shouldn't count toward the championship. If drivers want no points for winning Indianapolis, then prestige alone does not justify it remaining the only double points race on the schedule. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. 

Fabio Quartararo won MotoGP's Portuguese Grand Prix, his second consecutive victory. Raúl Fernández won the Moto2 race. Pedro Acosta won the Moto3 race, his second victory of the season. 

Linus Lundqvist and David Malukas split the Indy Lights races from Barber. Braden Eves and Hunter McElrea split the Indy Pro 2000 races. Yuven Sundaramoorthy and Prescott Campbell split the U.S. F2000 races

Alex Bowman won the NASCAR Cup race at Richmond. John Hunter Nemechek won the Truck race, his second victory of the season.

Shane van Gisbergen, Jamie Whincup and Chaz Mostert split the Supercars races from Symmons Plains.

The #41 Team WRT Oreca-Gibson of Robert Kubica, Louis Delétraz and Ye Yifei won the 4 Hours of Barcelona. The #19 Cool Racing Ligier-Nissan of Matt Bell, Niklas Krütten and Nicolas Maulini won in the LMP3 class. The #80 Iron Lynx Ferrari of Matteo Cressoni, Rino Mastronardi and Miguel Molina won in the GTE class.

The #54 Dynamic Motorsport Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Matteo Cairoli and Christian Engelhart won the 3 Hours of Monza. 

Coming Up This Weekend:
IndyCar heads southeast to St. Petersburg.
Formula E makes its Valencia debut with a doubleheader.
NASCAR will be in Talladega.
Super Formula has its second round of the season from Suzuka.
The World Rally Championship contests the Croatia Rally for the first time.
Supercross has its penultimate round of the season from Salt Lake City. 



Sunday, April 18, 2021

First Impressions: Barber 2021

1. Something sounded right in Álex Palou's voice this offseason. Every time he spoke, there was a subtle confidence. Even better, every time Palou's team spoke about him, there was a sense of trust and excitement. That is why I put Palou down as the sleeper for this weekend and sure enough the Spaniard picked up his first career IndyCar victory in his 15th start and his first start with Chip Ganassi Racing. 

Palou's results were not historic in his rookie season. He had flashes, but more times than not the results did not match what he did on track. It was easy to overlook him, but when Ganassi called him up to replace the departing Felix Rosenqvist, it should have told us how well he did as a rookie. It was a rookie season with almost no testing, condensed race weekends and in some cases doubleheader that previous were not scheduled and all of this happened at racetracks Palou had never visited before. 

Barber wasn't on the schedule last year, but for some reason, after seeing how he drove at Road America and Mid-Ohio last year, I got a hunch he would do well this weekend. Did I think he would win? No. I thought Scott Dixon was due to get off the Barber snide, but I thought Palou could compete for a top five finish. 

All the Ganassi cars were quick this weekend and Palou led the way after qualifying. He got the most out of the alternate tires when everyone thought you could not get a full stint out of them. Palou went the distance with alternates on that first stint and that decided the race. That opening stint put him ahead. He faced a late challenge from Will Power while negotiating lapped traffic, but Palou had the advantage and it ended up in victory. 

This season will be 17 races... hopefully. I am not going to say Palou is now a contender. It wasn't that long ago we saw James Hinchcliffe win two of the first four races, three races total and he was never a factor for the championship in 2013. It was a good start for Palou. He could not ask for more. He has 16 more opportunities to repeat today's performance. If he can do this on a regular basis, Ganassi might have a new champion.

2. Will Power snuck into this one. He was good, but never looked great. All of a sudden, on his final stop after being about six or seven seconds off Palou, he came out on the Spaniard's gearbox. From there he stayed in contention for the entire final stint, but he had to watch his fuel and could not use his push to pass aggressively. He kept Palou honest as Palou was held up in traffic, but Power was 0.4016 seconds short, taking the checkered flag in second. 

Considering how some of Power's seasons have started lately, I am sure he will be happy with second. 

3. I don't think Scott Dixon will mind finishing third, even though his new teammate won on debut. This is nine podium finishes in 11 Barber starts and he has still not won at this track. He ran in the top five all race, but didn't have what Palou had today. 

However, Dixon started the season with a third-place finish. That is 35 points to kickoff this season. That is a good start to a title defense. 

4. Everyone came into the day expecting Patricio O'Ward to become a first-time winner. Instead, O'Ward was fourth and it was lost in the opening stint. O'Ward could not get a handle on the alternate tires. He dove to the pit lane early and made it a three-stop race. I don't think he or his Arrow McLaren SP team expected that many teams to make the alternate tires last the entire first stint. 

O'Ward had a shot as he could run harder in the final stint, but he got hung up behind Marcus Ericsson and he lost some spots to Sébastien Bourdais and Graham Rahal in the middle of the race. He was able to get up to fourth, but he lost too much time and could not challenge the leaders. There was a little bit too much frustration when he got into traffic. I think he probably wants this race back and probably wishes he went four or five laps longer on that opening stint.

5. On the second caution of the race after Jimmie Johnson spun about 12 laps in, Sébastien Bourdais got off the alternate tires and he pull off a three-stop strategy, turning 16th on the grid into fifth at the checkered flag. For a moment, I thought Bourdais was going to end up ahead of O'Ward and potentially on the podium. That didn't quite work out, but this was a strong day for him and A.J. Foyt Racing. The team has consecutive top five finishes for the first time in eight years. Three consecutive is not out of the question.

6. I don't know how Rinus VeeKay has these bland drives into the top ten, but he did it again and was sixth with a broken thumb. He ran a similar strategy to Bourdais and kept up. He is a smart driver. You cannot say more than that. Eventually we will need to see some more flash, but this works as well.

7. Graham Rahal was in the same boat as Bourdais and VeeKay. They got off the alternate tires under yellow and it turned into a top ten finish. This was a good turnaround for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. This was not a good weekend considering the last time IndyCar was at Barber RLLR swept the front row and won the race and probably should have been 1-2 if Rahal did not have electrical issues. The team will be looking for more, but it is still a good turnaround.

8. Marcus Ericsson barely made it on fuel and finished eighth. Eighth is good, but it does not tell how close he was to his Ganassi teammate. He, Palou and Dixon were in lockstep most of this weekend. If it wasn't for fuel, he could have had a top five finish. 

9. Alexander Rossi countered O'Ward's strategy and that appears to have been a big mistake. Rossi looked better on the alternate tire than O'Ward, but he stopped with the Mexican and he lost out on every stint from there onward. Rossi never could leapfrog ahead of O'Ward. It seemed like Rossi always got caught in traffic at the worst times and he always lost spots on pit stops. I feel like if he stays out when O'Ward stops, Rossi at least finishes in the top five and not ninth. 

10. Romain Grosjean got a top ten finish on debut. Grosjean never stood out, but that is a good thing. He drove a smart 90 laps. We never saw him sliding around the racetrack. We never saw him go wide or off track. He didn't botch a pit stop. This is a fabulous start for him. He fit right into IndyCar and I think more top ten finishes are coming this season.

11. Jack Harvey was 11th. Not great, but solid. It is going to be tough to get top ten finishes this season. Harvey was ahead of Simon Pagenaud, who never factored in this one. Takuma Sato was anonymous and finished 13th. Scott McLaughlin lost some spots and ended up 14th, but he pushed Sato late. Not bad for McLaughlin. Ed Jones was 15th and was hardly noticed. 

12. Conor Daly and James Hinchcliffe were 16th and 17th respectively. Those are two of the last three most popular drivers. That shows what popularity gets you. 

Daly has never finished ahead of VeeKay when they have been teammate. Daly still doesn't have a top ten finish with Ed Carpenter Racing. The kid gloves are going off. If Daly just wants to be the class clown and be known for his haircut, fine, but stop acting like you aren't getting a fair shake. Daly now has 65 IndyCar starts. He is a veteran now. He has driven for Foyt, Coyne, Schmidt Peterson, Carlin, Andretti and Carpenter. He is a start with RLLR away from a free ice cream cone.

Daly has to start performing. We know he can get into the top ten and be competitive. We saw it with Coyne and Foyt. He won pole position with Carlin, but for all the attention he gets for the off-track antics, the results at least have to be respectable, and they haven't been. 

Oh, by the way, congratulations to Dalton Kellett on a career-best 18th-place finish. Still not on the lead lap, though. 
 
13. Jimmie Johnson got the attention and he finished three laps down in 19th. If it wasn't for that opening accident, he would have been three laps down in 24th. Credit to him for avoiding that opening accident, but then he spun on his own in turn 15. This is going to be a tough season and Barber is just the start. 

If it wasn't for Max Chilton being caught in the first lap accident, Johnson would have even been behind him as well. Chilton rounded out the top twenty, four laps down.

If you tuned in for Jimmie Johnson, I hope you are patient because this is what a lot of this season will be. It is going to be hard for IndyCar to sell a driver finishing multiple laps down. Today was his debut, the first test, but if this is repeated over the next three or four starts, Johnson will have to be treated like Kellett and Chilton. He cannot be singled every time just for running 21st.

To be fair, Johnson did well this weekend. He was not a liability on the racetrack. His times in practice were in the ballpark with the rest of the field. Next week will be interesting because he was able to run many test laps at Barber. He has never done a lap at St. Petersburg. There is no baseline for him. Each lap will be a chance to improve. 

14. A few drivers want that opening lap back. Most notably: Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Ryan Hunter-Reay. Lost the car going uphill through turn four in dirty air and he just lost the car. He spun into the path of Herta and Hunter-Reay, and they had nowhere to go. Herta was able to get some laps in after the team repaired the car, but he was 22nd ahead of Newgarden and Hunter-Reay respectively.

Drivers have overcome a slow start, but it feels like when things go wrong on the first lap of the season it is a sign of things to come. All three of these drivers need to be flawless at St. Petersburg and onward. 

15. Felix Rosenqvist is bound to be fired, and it doesn't help that his old car won the race. Rosenqvist was caught in the opening lap incident and there was nothing he could do, but 21st after hitting the wall entering the pit lane and spinning in qualifying and losing out on advancing to the second round of qualifying is not how you can start with this Arrow McLaren SP organization, which fired James Hinchcliffe for appearing in a magazine and fired Oliver Askew for getting a concussion. Rosenqvist has been uncharacteristically off since his sophomore season began. He needs to find some of that rookie magic.

16. I was thinking about push-to-pass entering this weekend. In this race, we saw a few drivers save it almost all until the end because there was no incentive to use it when on a two-stop strategy, but because they were on a two-stop strategy they still couldn't use it to make it on fuel mileage. 

How can IndyCar incentivize using it? I was thinking about saying a team has to use at least 40% of it in the first half of the race or they will just lose it. I am sure some teams will be fine with that as they are conserving fuel anyway, but it would force some teams to use it. We wouldn't see teams saving over 150 seconds into the final stint. 

I don't know what could be done, but I think IndyCar could do something. 

17. We will do it all again in a week. St. Petersburg is another difficult place. I am not sure it is the place you are hoping for after a disappointing season opener. 



Morning Warm-Up: Barber 2021

Patricio O'Ward powers to first pole position of 2021
 
Patricio O'Ward took the first pole position of the 2021 IndyCar season with a lap of 65.8479 seconds around Barber Motorsports Park. It is O'Ward second career pole position. He started on pole position for the second Road America race last year. He has won four races at Barber in Road to Indy competition.  O'Ward could become the first driver to get his first career victory in a season opener since James Hinchcliffe in 2013. O'Ward will be making his 23rd start this weekend. Two drivers have picked up their first career victories in their 23rd starts, Greg Moore at Milwaukee in 1997 and Jaques Lazier at Chicagoland in 2001.

Alexander Rossi was 0.0698 seconds off O'Ward and will start second. This is Rossi's best starting position at Barber. He has finished outside the top ten in three of five season openers in his IndyCar career. In each season where he was outside the top ten in the season opener, he did not get a top ten finish until at least the third race of the season. In the two seasons he opened with a top ten finish, he had at least three consecutive top ten results to start the season. 

Álex Palou matches his career best starting position of third as the Spaniard was 0.2059 seconds off O'Ward. Palou is the fourth driver to pilot the #10 Chip Ganassi Racing entry since the start of the 2014 season. In that time, the #10 Ganassi car has finished ahead of Scott Dixon only once in a season opener. That was in 2015 when Tony Kanaan was third at St. Petersburg and Dixon was 15th. 

For only the third time in his career, Will Power starts off the front row at Barber, as the Australian will start fourth. Power has finished outside the top ten in his last three Barber starts after having seven consecutive top five finishes at the track. Power was the top Penske finish only three races in 2021, when he was second in the first Road America races and his victories at Mid-Ohio and the second Harvest Grand Prix race.

Scott Dixon starts his title defense from fifth starting position. Dixon has made the Fast Six in all 11 Barber races. IndyCar has had two drivers win consecutive season openers in the last seven seasons, but both of those came in St. Petersburg. Juan Pablo Montoya swept the Florida races in 2015 and 2016, and Sébastien Bourdais followed in 2017 and 2018. Scott Dixon could become the first driver to win consecutive season openers but at different venues since Paul Tracy won the 2003 CART season opener at St. Petersburg and the 2004 Champ Car season opener at Long Beach. Dixon enters 2021 with ten consecutive top ten finishes. 

Marcus Ericsson made the Fast Six for the first time in his career and he will start sixth. Ericsson had nine top ten finishes last year, tied for the fifth most in IndyCar with Graham Rahal, and only behind the top four in the championship, Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Patricio O'Ward. Ericsson's longest stretch without a top ten finish in 2020 was two races. Despite Ericsson's track record, he was only the top Ganassi finisher once last year, fifth in the second Mid-Ohio race.

Romain Grosjean will make his IndyCar debut from seventh on the grid. Grosjean started 14th in his Formula One debut at Valencia in 2009. Grosjean looks to become the first driver to win in the #51 since Adrián Fernández won the 2003 CART race at Portland. Grosjean makes his debut one day after his 35th birthday. Grosjean retired from the season opener on seven of nine occasions in Formula One. He was tenth in the 2013 Australian Grand Prix and he scored a famous sixth in the 2016 Australian Grand Prix, Haas F1's debut race.

Josef Newgarden starts eighth at Barber. Newgarden won from eighth in the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg. Barber is Josef Newgarden's third best track with at least three starts in terms of average finish at 5.5. Only Pocono and Phoenix are lower. It is the road course where he has led the most in his career with 133 laps led. He and teammate Will Power are the only two drivers with over 100 laps led at Barber. Power has led 208 circuits around the 2.3-mile road course. 

Colton Herta starts ninth. The worst starting position for a Barber winner was ninth with Will Power in 2012. Herta's lone IndyCar start at Barber was cut short with fuel pressure issues. It was the location of his second Indy Lights victory in 2017. No driver has won in Indy Lights and IndyCar at Barber. Herta, Ed Jones and Patricio O'Ward could all become the first to accomplish that this weekend. 

Conor Daly rounds out the top ten. Daly has started and finished in the top ten only twice in his career. His first top ten finish was from tenth to sixth in the second Belle Isle race in 2015. He was eighth after starting on pole position last year in the first Iowa race. This will be the eighth IndyCar season Conor Daly has participated in, but Barber will be only the fourth season opener he has contested. He ran at St. Petersburg in 2016 and 2017. Last year, he ended up finishing sixth at Texas, his best finish of the 2020 season.

Jack Harvey will start 11th. Harvey turned 28 years old on Friday. Meyer Shank Racing had four podium finishes at Barber Motorsports Park in the Grand-Am Sports Car Series, those coming in 2005, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Harvey was 13th in his first IndyCar start at Barber in 2019 after starting 12th.

Scott McLaughlin makes his second IndyCar start from 12th on the grid. McLaughlin was born on June 10, 1993, three days before Danny Sullivan picked up his 17th and final IndyCar victory at Belle Isle driving for Galles Racing. In McLaughlin's lifetime, only four drivers have won IndyCar races in car #3, Al Unser, Jr., Paul Tracy, Robbie Buhl and Hélio Castroneves.

Ed Jones is back with Dale Coyne Racing and Jones will make his IndyCar return from 13th on the grid, falling 0.0344 seconds shy of advancing from round one. In his rookie season for the team in 2017, Jones was third in the Indianapolis 500 and he had five top ten finishes with the team. He did fail to pick up a top ten finish in his final seven starts with Dale Coyne Racing. 

After the red flag prematurely ended group two's session, Rinus VeeKay was 0.0488 seconds off advancing from round two and he will start 14th. VeeKay was third and fourth in his two U.S. F2000 starts at Barber and he was fifth and fourth in Pro Mazda at the track. Four of VeeKay's five top ten finishes in 2020 came at two tracks, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and Gateway. VeeKay is racing with a broken thumb, which he suffered last week in testing at Indianapolis. 

Simon Pagenaud starts the 2021 season from 15th starting position. Pagenaud failed to start in the top ten in ten races last year, including in the final three races. He did not have a top five finish in the last eight races of 2020. It is tied for his longest drought without a top five finish since he opened the 2018 season without a top five finish in the first eight races of that season. However, he did have five top ten finishes in that eight-race span Pagenaud has never won a season opener, but he has finished runner-up in three of the last five. 

Sébastien Bourdais makes it an all-French row eight. Bourdais picked up a fourth-place finish in the St. Petersburg season finale last October. It was A.J. Foyt Racing's only top five finish of the season. Foyt has not had top five finishes in consecutive races since 2013 when Takuma Sato won Long Beach and was then second in São Paulo. Foyt's one and only top ten finish at Barber came in 2012 when Mike Conway finished seventh. 

For the fourth time, Ryan Hunter-Reay starts a Barber race from row nine, as the American will roll off from 17th. Hunter-Reay has started 223 consecutive IndyCar races, the fourth longest streak in IndyCar history and the second longest among active drivers. He is 11th all-time in starts. If he starts 16 races this year, he will move into tenth all-time.

Graham Rahal starts 18th. Rahal has only two top ten finishes in season openers in his IndyCar career. He was seventh at St. Petersburg in 2009 and second at St. Petersburg in 2018. His average finish in season openers is 12.9167. This is the sixth time he has started outside the top ten at Barber. Only once he has finished in the top ten when starting outside the top ten at this track. He went from 15th to seventh in 2018.

Takuma Sato is looking to win two consecutive Barber races, but Sato starts 19th. This is the ninth time Sato has started outside the top ten at Barber. The only track Sato has won at multiple times in his IndyCar career is Indianapolis.

Max Chilton rounds out the top twenty. Chilton has not had a top ten finish in his last 38 IndyCar starts. He went 35 races in his Formula One career without a top ten finish. Chilton was also unable to participate in the final three races of the 2014 Formula One season due to Marussia F1 entire administration. He has finished outside the top twenty in three of four Barber starts.

Jimmie Johnson will make his IndyCar debut from 21st starting position. In his NASCAR Cup Series debut, he started 15th at Charlotte in October 2001, but he finished 39th. Johnson has made 38 starts in the state of Alabama in the NASCAR Cup Series, all of those coming at Talladega. He won at the track in 2006 and 2011 with that 2011 victory coming ten years and one day prior to his IndyCar debut at Barber. He had only two top ten finishes in his last 11 Talladega starts.

Felix Rosenqvist spun on his final qualifying lap, bringing out the red flag and he will start 22nd. In 31 races with Chip Ganassi Racing, Felix Rosenqvist was the top Ganassi finisher in seven races. In only two of those races did Scott Dixon finish in the top ten. Patricio O'Ward was the top Arrow McLaren SP finisher in ten of 14 races last year.

Dalton Kellett starts 23rd. Kellett did not finish on the lead lap in any of his eight IndyCar starts last year. On average, 4.4 cars take the checkered flag off the lead lap at Barber. The 2010 race had 12 cars finish a lap down but in 2015 and 2017 all starters finished the race with only two finishing a lap down. 

After getting into the barrier, James Hinchcliffe will start 24th, his worst starting position at Barber. This is only the fifth time he has started outside the top twenty in his IndyCar career. Hinchcliffe has three top ten finishes at Barber, tied for third most all-time at the track. However, he has only one top five finish, his third-place result in 2018. He has only led four laps at the track, two of which came in 2019. Prior to this qualifying sessions, Barber was Hinchcliffe's third best track in terms of qualifying average with a minimum of three starts. His average starting position was 7.2, behind only Houston and São Paulo. After this result, it has shot up to 8.9, knocking it down to his seventh best track.

NBC's coverage of the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama will begin at 3:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 3:42 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 90 laps.


Thursday, April 15, 2021

Track Walk: Barber 2021

 
IndyCar's new season sees a return to Barber

After 175 days, the NTT IndyCar Series is back in competition and the first round of the 2021 season will take place at Barber Motorsports Park. There will be 17 rounds this season. This will be the 11th Grand Prix of Alabama after the 2020 race was lost due to the global pandemic. This is the first time Barber has opened an IndyCar season and, incredibly, this is the first time in IndyCar history a season has opened a season on a permanent, natural-terrain road course. There have been only six different winners in the first ten Barber races and of those six winners, four are past IndyCar champions, but in only two seasons has the Barber winner gone on to take the title. 

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday April 18 with green flag scheduled for 3:42 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Marty Snider, Kelli Stavast and Dave Burns will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Saturday:
First Practice: 10:00 a.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Second Practice: 1:45 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 5:55 p.m. ET * (NBCSN will have tape-delayed coverage at 10:00 p.m. ET) 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 11:30 a.m. ET (30 minutes)*
Race: 3:42 p.m. ET (90 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock.

Shaking Out the Testing Results
Unlike most seasons, IndyCar did not have a properly sanctioned open test on a road course this preseason. There have been plenty of test sessions but spread out around the country with partial participation. With these being semi-private tests, all times are unofficial.

Through five notable test days, Patricio O'Ward was on top of two of them. He led the Sebring test day February 1 with a time of 51.79 seconds and the test day at Laguna Seca a month later with a time of 71.529 seconds. 

The Sebring test day on February 1 featured 14 cars from six teams. Alexander Rossi was second at that February 1 test, as he set a time of 51.928 seconds. Rossi also topped a test day at Sebring on January 19 that featured only nine cars with just the four Andretti cars, the two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing cars, Jack Harvey, Max Chilton and Dalton Kellett participating. Rossi's top time on January 19 was 52.272 seconds, 0.106 seconds ahead of Colton Herta with Harvey third, 0.268 back.
 
At the Laguna Seca test, only eight cars participated. Behind O'Ward were the Dale Coyne Racing cars of Ed Jones and Romain Grosjean with Jones 0.236 off O'Ward and Grosjean was only 0.042 seconds off his teammate. New Arrow McLaren SP driver Felix Rosenqvist was just over three-tenths off of O'Ward at Laguna Seca and just over four-tenths off O'Ward at the February 1 Sebring test. 

Noticeably absent from these test days were Chip Ganassi Racing. The defending champions only participated in one multi-team test on January 18 at Sebring, which only featured the four Ganassi cars, the Foyt cars of Kellett and Sébastien Bourdais, and Chilton. Dixon topped that day at 52.32 seconds with Marcus Ericsson in second, less than a tenth off of Dixon with Álex Palou was 0.135 seconds off in third. 

Barber Motorsports Park did host a test day on February 23 with 12 cars participating. Rinus VeeKay topped that day at 66.518 seconds with Bourdais in second at 66.633 second and Graham Rahal was third, 0.203 seconds behind VeeKay.

Team Penske did not top either of the notable tests it participated in. Josef Newgarden was third at the February 1 Sebring test, about a quarter of a second off O'Ward, but his three teammates took three of the bottom four spots. At the Barber test, Power was fourth, nearly four-tenths off of VeeKay. 

For the intimate nature of these tests, they were fairly close. The nine cars at the January 19 Sebring test were covered by 0.861 seconds. On February 1, 0.679 seconds separated O'Ward in first to Scott McLaughlin in 14th at Sebring. At Barber, 0.96 seconds was the difference from VeeKay in first and Grosjean, who was making his first outing in an IndyCar, in 12th. 

There was also an oval test held on March 31 at Texas Motor Speedway, which O'Ward topped at 23.325 seconds, over a tenth quicker than Rossi in second with Harvey about a quarter second slower in third. The Penske cars of Simon Pagenaud and Power rounded out the top five with Rosenqvist in sixth.

Testing tells us something is brewing in the AMSP camp and O'Ward remains a threat for his first career victory. While Rosenqvist showed strength, it appears O'Ward has a firm grasp on the top spot in the AMSP organization. Rossi appears set to have put his sluggish 2020 season behind him. Penske was not lighting up the charts, but we cannot overlook them, and Harvey and Meyer Shank Racing could turn some heads. Of course, we can never rule out Scott Dixon and the Ganassi drivers.

It is difficult to tell which teams appear to be caught on the back foot in testing. With the largest test being 14 cars, we don't have a great barometer of where every team shakes out. On top of that, in the tests we had, every team had at least one good outing. Barber first practice will be the first true indicator of where everyone stands.

Who Benefits From a Barber Season Opener?
It has to be the three-time Barber winner Josef Newgarden. 

The Tennessean has the most Barber victories and he has five consecutive top five finishes at the track with seven consecutive top ten finishes. The one thing riding against Newgarden is the only times he has led laps at Barber happen to be the three races he has won. 

While Newgarden has taken top honors in three of the last five Barber trips, Scott Dixon has been incredible in Alabama. In ten starts, the 2020 champion has six runner-up finishes, eight podium finishes and his worst finish is tenth. Dixon has started in the top six in every Barber start, but he has never started on the front row and he has only led 46 of 871 laps with 38 of those laps coming in 2012. He has led three laps or fewer on five occasions. 

Team Penske is happy pretty much anywhere IndyCar goes, but the team has won six of ten Barber races. Will Power won at the track in 2011 and 2012 while Simon Pagenaud won there in 2016. Pagenaud has never finished worse than ninth. Power has seven top ten finishes, but he has not finished in the top ten in his last three Barber appearances. 

Ryan Hunter-Reay won consecutive Barber races in 2013 and 2014. He has four top five finishes in ten starts and he has completed all 871 laps run at the track. However, his 93 laps led have all come in his two victories and his qualifying form is a little suspect. Hunter-Reay has started outside the top ten on six occasions. The good news is in the other four races he has qualified in the top five and he has finished on the podium in three of those four starts. 

From the looks of testing, Rinus VeeKay and his Ed Carpenter Racing teammate Conor Daly should feel confident about where this season opens. Daly was fifth on that February 23 test day. However, VeeKay only had one podium finish in four Road to Indy starts at the track and Daly has finishes of 20th and 18th in IndyCar in his previous two starts. 

New A.J. Foyt Racing driver Sébastien Bourdais was second on that February 23 test day and he has three consecutive top ten finishes at Barber, including third in the most recent race in 2019. 

Let's not forget the most recent Barber winner, Takuma Sato and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. RLLR swept the front row for the 2019 race and Graham Rahal was keeping pace with his teammate before an electrical problem took him out of the race. Rahal had back-to-back runner-up finishes at Barber in 2015 and 2016. Sato has three consecutive top ten finishes after failing to finish better than 13th in his first seven Barber starts.

Who Wishes the Season Opened Elsewhere?
Arrow McLaren SP might have led testing at a handful of tracks, but it might have wished the season began on a street course such as St. Petersburg or Long Beach over Barber. Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist each have only one start at Barber, both ran the 2019 race. Rosenqvist started well but struggled with tire degradation and held on for a tenth-place finish. O'Ward started 18th and finished 16th driving for Carlin. 

While he has two fifth-place finishes in four trips to Barber, Alexander Rossi is vocally not a big fan of this track. His best starting position at the track is eighth and he has only led three laps there. Rossi has completed every possible lap in his four starts. 

Ed Jones is back with Dale Coyne Racing, but he probably would have hoped to have started the 2021 season at St. Petersburg or somewhere else. In three Barber starts, Jones' best finish is 16th. He has made it out of the first round of qualifying on two of his three appearances, but he has only finished better than his starting position once and that was in 2019 when he stared 21st and finished 19th, one lap down. 

Also not helping Jones is that he and his Coyne teammate Romain Grosjean were two of the bottom three cars on the February 23 test at Barber. 

There will be a handful of drivers making their Barber debut this weekend, as the track was not on the 2020 calendar. Álex Palou has tested at the track, but Palou has not had the privilege of competing in a race yet. The Spaniard ended 2020 with only one top ten finish in the final ten races. 

In ten Road to Indy starts, Dalton Kellett never finished better than sixth at Barber. Kellett's average finish was 23rd in 2020 and he has finished outside the top twenty in five consecutive starts.

Max Chilton has failed to finish on the lead lap in three of his four Barber starts. Those three finishes off the lead lap have been 21st, 22nd and 22nd. Chilton was 12th in 2017 after starting ninth. He has not had a top ten finish since Watkins Glen in 2017. He has made 38 starts with Carlin and has yet to finish in the top ten.

Class of 2021?
With the pandemic cancelling the 2020 Indy Lights season, we do not have any drivers moving up from the Road to Indy into IndyCar this season, but the 2021 rookie class features three accomplished drivers from three different motorsports disciplines. 

Scott McLaughlin is the only rookie slated to compete in all the races and the three-time Supercars champion will contest the #3 Chevrolet for Team Penske. McLaughlin made his debut at St. Petersburg last year. He was caught out in qualifying and ended up 21st. In the race, McLaughlin made up a few spots before contact with Rinus VeeKay ended his race and dropped him to 22nd in the results. McLaughlin had won at least eight races in his last four Supercars seasons and his 56 victories in 252 starts ranks him tied for fourth all-time in victories. 

Romain Grosjean will drive in 13 of 17 races in the #51 Dale Coyne Racing w/ Rick Ware Racing Honda. Grosjean's Formula One career ended with ten podium finishes in 179 starts, but his last podium result was third in the 2015 Belgian Grand Prix. His last top five finish was fourth at Austria in 2018. Last year, the Frenchman picked up two points with a ninth at the Nürburgring.

Jimmie Johnson will run an identical schedule to Grosjean, contesting only the road and street course races in the #48 Honda for Chip Ganassi Racing. Johnson wrapped up a 20-year NASCAR Cup Series career, which saw him win a record-tying seven championships and 83 races, tied for sixth all-time. Johnson failed to win a race in his final three Cup seasons. His last victory was on June 4, 2017 at Dover. Johnson will make his IndyCar debut at 45 years, seven months and one day old, making him the 11th oldest driver to make an IndyCar debut.

McLaughlin has the benefit of more seat time, dating back to preseason testing ahead of the 2020 season and his outing at St. Petersburg. While the New Zealander was not on top, he had competitive times compared to his teammates and other top drivers in testing. Grosjean got his footing at the Barber test and he showed greater speed at Laguna Seca, albeit against fewer competitors. 

Johnson was 1.371 seconds off his teammate Scott Dixon at the January 18 Sebring test and over six-tenths off of Dalton Kellett, the next slowest driver. Ganassi has tested at Barber over the winter and Johnson has made additional testing runs in Formula Regional Americas cars at Barber. Next to Sebring, Barber might be the track Johnson has the most open-wheel experience at.  

Rookie of the Year honors will likely go to McLaughlin as he is contesting all the races and it appears only the Indianapolis 500 will be worth double points. There is a chance Grosjean could contest the Gateway round later in the season, but his participation in that race is still tentative. Johnson has made it clear he will not be attempting any oval races in 2021. It should be noted that Team Penske has never had a driver win IndyCar Rookie of the Year honors.

McLaughlin and Johnson both have multi-year contracts, meaning this rookie year will be a chance to build for something in the future, while Grosjean has this one year in IndyCar but could be looking elsewhere in the future, specifically sports cars.

Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series will be in competition this weekend and each series will run a doubleheader to open their respective 2021 seasons. 

Thirteen cars are entered for the Indy Lights weekend. Andretti Autosport will have four cars on the grid. The 2019 Indy Pro 2000 champion Kyle Kirkwood and returning Indy Lights race winner Robert Megennis lead the way. Danial Frost and Devlin DeFrancesco won races in Indy Pro 2000 last season and they round out the Andretti lineup. Andretti Autosport has won the last four Indy Lights races at Barber.

Sting Ray Robb moves up off of his Indy Pro 2000 championship and will drive for Juncos Racing with Toby Sowery. Sowery was third in the 2019 Indy Lights championship and he won at Portland. Juncos Racing has produced two Indy Lights champions in Spencer Pigot and Kyle Kaiser.

Past champion Carlin is back in the series and it will have former Formula Three driver Alex Peroni paired with Christian Bogle. This is Carlin's first Indy Lights weekend since the 2017 season finale at Watkins Glen. Carlin won 12 races in its three previous Indy Lights seasons. 

David Malukas won pole position at St. Petersburg last year before the weekend was interrupted due to the pandemic. Malukas is back with HMD Motorsports and Nikita Lastochkin will be his teammate. HMD will also field two cars in partnership with Global Racing Group for Benjamin Pedersen and Linus Lundqvist. Antonio Serravalle rounds out the grid with Pserra Racing/AS Promotions. 

Indy Lights will race at 1:15 p.m. ET on Saturday April 17 with the second race scheduled for 1:20 p.m. ET on Sunday April 18. 

Indy Pro 2000 has 17 cars for its season opener and this is the first time Indy Pro 2000 has competed at Barber since 2018. 

Christian Rasmussen moves up off of his U.S. F2000 championship and he will continue with Jay Howard Driver Development, which expands into the next rung of the Road to Indy ladder system. Wyatt Brichacek will be Rasmussen's teammate at JHDD.

Juncos Racing won the title last year and it will have a three-car lineup. Manuel Sulaimán joins the team after winning two races last year. Sulaimán will have rookie teammates in Kyffin Simpson and Reece Gold. 

Artem Petrov and Hunter McElrea are the top two returning drivers from the 2020 championship. Petrov will drive for Exclusive Autosport with teammate Braden Eves. Petrov won two races last year while Eves had one victory. Eves returns to competition after a broken neck prematurely ended his 2020 season. McElrea is the most recent race winner in Indy Pro 2000 and he remains at Pabst Racing with Colin Kaminsky as his teammate. 

After missing the 2020 season, RP Motorsports is back with Enzo Fittipaldi and Enaam Ahmed on the grid. Cameron Shields is the only DEForce Racing entry for Barber. Jacob Abel is back after running a partial season last year. James Roe, Hunter Yeany, Flinn Lazier and Jack William Miller will all be making their Indy Pro 2000 debuts.

Indy Pro 2000 will race at 12:10 p.m. ET on Saturday April 17 and at 10:15 a.m. ET on Sunday April 18.

Twenty-six cars have entered the U.S. F2000 season opener in what is U.S. F2000's first trip to Barber since 2017. 

Jay Howard Driver Development ended Cape Motorsports' nine-year run of producing the U.S. F2000 champion last year when Christian Rasmussen took the title. JHDD is back with three drivers, but all three are rookies. Team USA Scholarship winner Jackson Lee will lead the way with Bijoy Garg and New Zealander Peter Vodanovich. 

Cape Motorsports has four cars entered. Michael d'Orlando is the elder statesman with rookies Thomas Nepveu, Evan Stamer and Spike Kohlbecker around him. 

Christian Brooks led testing with Exclusive Autosport and Matt Round-Garrido has joined the team, giving Exclusive Autosport two drivers who were in the top six of the championship last year. 

Prescott Campbell will look to improve in year two and he will drive for DEForce Racing, alongside Kiko Porto, who won at St. Petersburg last year. Josh Green has joined Turn 3 Motorsport. Legacy Autosport was not present at testing but has entered Andre Castro and Simon Sikes for the Barber round. 

Myles Rowe will make his debut with Force Indy, a new team created with assistance from Team Penske as part of IndyCar's Race for Equality & Change initiative.

Both U.S. F2000 races will be on Saturday April 17 with race one at 9:00 a.m. ET and race two at 4:50 p.m. ET.

Fast Facts
This will be the fifth IndyCar race held on April 18 and first since Ryan Hunter-Reay won at Long Beach in 2010. 

All previous races held on April 18 were at Long Beach and all of these races had a driver from the Americas win the race. Paul Tracy won at Long Beach in 1993 and 2004. Juan Pablo Montoya won at Long Beach in 1999.

The average starting position for a Barber winner is 3.444 with a median of third. 

Four of ten Barber races have been won from pole position. 

The worst starting position for a Barber winner was ninth in 2012 with Will Power. 

Every Barber podium finisher has started in the top ten.

In the last two Barber races the podium finishers have all started in the top five. 

The third-place starter has finished on the podium in eight of ten Barber races and the worst finish for the third-place starter is tenth. 

The average number of lead changes at Barber is 6.6 with a median of seven. 

The 2019 Barber race had a record 11 lead changes. Only three Barber races have had fewer than five lead changes. 

The average number of cautions at Barber is 2.4 with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 9.3 with a median of eight.

Eight Barber races have had two cautions or fewer. There has never been a caution-free race at Barber. 

Scott Dixon could become the first defending champion to win a season opener since Dario Franchitti won at St. Petersburg in 2011. 

Josef Newgarden is the only driver to pick up a first career victory at Barber. 

The last time there was a first-time winner in the season opener was James Hinchcliffe at St. Petersburg in 2013. Hinchcliffe's victory was also the last time Andretti Autosport won a season opener. 

Team Penske has won eight of 14 season openers since reunification. Chip Ganassi Racing has won three of those season openers. Dale Coyne Racing has won two of them and then there was the aforementioned Andretti victory.

Barber is the 25th different track to host an IndyCar season opener. 

Due to the pandemic-affected seasons, this is third different venue to host the season opener in the last three seasons. The last time IndyCar had three different season opening venues in three seasons was from 2008 to 2010 when Homestead, St. Petersburg and São Paulo were the openers in those respective years. 

Possible Milestones:
If Scott Dixon wins this race, he will become the first driver in IndyCar history to win a race in 19 different seasons. 

If Scott Dixon wins this race, he will tie Mario Andretti's record of 26 different tracks with a race victory

Will Power is one victory away from becoming the fifth driver to win 40 IndyCar races. Power would also break a tie with Al Unser for fifth all-time in IndyCar victories.

Will Power is one podium finish away from moving into sole possession of tenth all-time in podium finishes with 82.

Scott Dixon needs to lead 58 laps to become the fifth driver to reach the 6,000 laps led milestone. 

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead one lap to become the 23rd driver to reach the 2,500 laps led milestone. 

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 51 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Predictions
Scott Dixon will open the season with his 51st IndyCar victory. Alexander Rossi gets his career best finish at Barber. There will be a podium finisher that starts outside the top ten. Arrow McLaren SP will have at least one driver in the top five. Sébastien Bourdais will be the top finishing Frenchman. Romain Grosjean will be the top finishing rookie. Conor Daly will finish ahead of Rinus VeeKay for the first time as Ed Carpenter Racing teammates. Scott McLaughlin will finish ahead of one of his teammates. Jimmie Johnson will not finish ahead of one of his teammates. There will not be an accident entering the pit lane. Graham Rahal will not have a mechanical failure. Dalton Kellett will improve on his career average finish. Sleeper: Álex Palou.