Musings From the Weekend: Good... But Not Great

Austin Cindric won the Daytona 500, his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory in his eighth career start. Inconsistent double yellow line rules and last lap cautions are back in NASCAR. Brad Keselowski was taking everyone out at Daytona. Andretti Autosport's pursuit of a Formula One team continues, and I have a feeling this will end poorly. Supercross had a stunning finish in Minneapolis. Everyone is talking about reindeer ahead of Rally Sweden. The Asian Le Mans Series season is over. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Good... But Not Great

Unusual for February, there is an IndyCar race ahead of us. After nearly two decades of opening predominantly in March or April, IndyCar starts in the shortest month of the year. It is another season with 17 races. A few drivers have switched teams. A few new teams are set for full-time competition. 

IndyCar is coming off a season with a new champion, four drivers in their 20s winning races and incredible races from Indianapolis to Road America, Nashville to Gateway, Barber to Long Beach. 

This season should pick up where 2021 left off. Scott Dixon is on the cusp of making history. Josef Newgarden is the American driver Robin Miller always wanted, and then there is Alexander Rossi. Colton Herta and Patricio O'Ward are on the verge of taking over the world. Álex Palou is the defending champion and is somehow still unappreciated.

All the pieces are there for another stellar season with the championship going to the final race with the battle swinging back and forth from the initial green flag in St. Petersburg to the final unfurling of the checkered flag at Laguna Seca. 

And yet, as we are within days of the first race of the season, I feel good about IndyCar... but not great. 

IndyCar has had a great decade in the DW12-era. It has had more passing and more open races than ever before. The series' streak of the championship going to the final race remains alive, dating back to the 2006 season. The Indianapolis 500 has re-emerged as a premier event, and it has had some of its best races in the last ten years. Those things are going to stay the same in 2022. We will have great races, winners from many different teams and possibly an unexpected champion. 

The problem is greater than the season we are about to have. 

This is set to be the final season of the 2.2 liters, twin-turbo V6 engines before the 2.4 L, twin-turbo V6 hybrid engines are introduced in 2023. The new Dallara chassis will come a year later. The next phase for IndyCar should provide excitement, but IndyCar finds itself in a familiar place. 

With new engine regulations on the horizon, no new engine manufactures are joining the series. Chevrolet and Honda are sticking around, but after waiting for IndyCar to return to three manufactures for the first time since Lotus flamed out after the 2012 season, none are joining the party. IndyCar is in a better place than it was a decade ago, and yet no one is jumping into the pool. 

What will it take for IndyCar to attract a new manufacture if the last ten years isn't enough? 

The frustrating thing is IndyCar had its chance. Porsche was interested back in early 2019, but IndyCar wasn't set on committing to hybrid technology. The series wanted to make sure it kept Chevrolet and Honda involved before making any decisions. Porsche waited long enough and withdrew its IndyCar interest in April. It wasn't until August 2019 when IndyCar decided to adopt hybrid technology. 

The pandemic delayed the introduction of the new regulations. Instead of coming in 2021, it will come in 2023. In the last two years, people got distracted with a game of footsie Ferrari played under the table with IndyCar, but hardened souls knew it would lead to nothing. Toyota is the latest flirt with the series, but Toyota has been clear from the outset that nothing is going to happen between the two parties. 

Three of the most notable manufactures in the world have turned IndyCar down in a three-year period, and no others are showing any interest. 

As good as things have been, there comes a breaking point. Honda is approaching three decades in IndyCar. That will not last forever. History tells us it will not. The same way Offenhauser and Cosworth are no longer powering cars, Honda will eventually no longer be on the IndyCar grid. Chevrolet has come and gone multiple times. It has been around for the last decade, but if it can leave twice before it can leave a third time. 

For all the strides IndyCar has made, all the heart-pounding races, engaging personalities, and increased viewership it can tout, the series has not become any more stable in the last ten years than it was in 2012. 

Roger Penske might have purchased the series, but Penske cannot field 24 cars full-time and 33 each Memorial Day weekend on his own. He needs manufactures willing to participate. Two has been enough for now, but three or four or even five would put the series in safer territory.

My fear is this great time everyone has been having since about 2016 is about to peak and a decline will occur simultaneously with the introduction of these new regulations. Eventually, what we think is working will clearly not be producing adequate results IndyCar cannot keep thinking that third or fourth manufacture is just outside the door about to walk in with what it is selling in the window. There comes a point where the series has to make a change and I think that point is approaching.

IMSA and the FIA World Endurance Championship both are undergoing regulation changes, and both are seeing an increase in manufactures. In WEC, Peugeot is coming back in 2022 alongside Toyota. Ferrari returns next year. In IMSA, Cadillac and Acura are sticking around and coming in 2023 are Audi, BMW and Porsche with Alpine building to the LMDh specs for 2024. 

In what is essentially one class, the highest form of sports car racing will have nine manufactures in 2024, and more could be coming. At the start of 2020, LMP1 only had Toyota as a manufacture with the privateer Rebellion Racing program and the stillbirth ByKolles and Ginetta programs in the background. 

Sports car racing has something figured out. IndyCar was first to the table with regulations and missed badly. IndyCar didn't need to get nine manufactures, but sports car racing showed there was a formula to attract manufactures. 

IndyCar needs to make an adjustment. After running strict regulations, a specific engine displacement and specific number of cylinders, maybe it is time for IndyCar to open the allowances. It doesn't have to go crazy but allowing up to three liters and allowing four cylinders or an inline engine or a flat-6 is more likely going to attract makes to the IndyCar grid than the current plan.

But maybe this is the year. Maybe 2022 is what will put one or two or perhaps three other manufactures over the top and IndyCar will be set. After all, if you fail ten times, the 11th time is the charm. 

Until something changes, I am feeling good about IndyCar... but not great.

Champions From the Weekend

The #4 Nielsen Racing Oreca-Gibson of Matt Bell, Ben Hanley and Rodrigo Sales clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a pair of runner-up finishes in the two Abu Dhabi races.

The #27 CD Sport Ligier-Nissan of Christophe Cresp, Antoine Doquin and Steven Palette clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP3 championship with a third-place finish and runner-up finish. 

The #7 Inception Racing with Optimum Motorsport McLaren of Ben Barnicoat, Brendan Iribe and Ollie Millroy clinched the Asian Le Mans Series GT championship with finishes of second and sixth. 

The #57 Kessel Racing Ferrari of Axcil Jefferies, Roman Ziemian and Francesco Zollo swept the Abu Dhabi weekend in GT Am and won all four GT Am rounds in the 2022 Asian Le Mans Series season.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about the Austin Cindric and Kessel Racing, but did you know...

Austin Hill won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Daytona, his first career victory in the series. Zane Smith won the Truck race. 

The #23 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson of Josh Pierson and Paul di Resta swept the Asian Le Mans Series races from Abu Dhabi. In the first race, the #2 DKR Engineering Duqueine-Nissan of Sebastián Álvarez Acre, Mathieu de Barbuat and Laurents Hörr won in LMP3. In GT, the #91 Herberth Motorsport Porsche of Ralf Bohn, Alfred Renauer and Robert Renauer swept the races. 

Jason Anderson won the Supercross race from Minneapolis, his second consecutive victory and his third of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend

IndyCar opens in St. Petersburg.

The reindeer-shortened Rally Sweden.

NASCAR returns to Fontana for the first time in two years.

Supercross heads to Arlington for a Triple Crown round.

Possible 2022 IndyCar Milestones

In a week, IndyCar will be back on track for the first practice sessions of the season. We have previewed all ten teams and the drivers set to participate in the 2022 season, but those were big picture previews, setting full season expectations. 

However, we sometimes miss the history happening in front of us. A season moves at a rapid pace. It is difficult to keep track of the statistics and where a driver stands in the record book. We focus on victories, the championship points and entire season storylines. When a season ends, we get a chance to reflect, look at the numbers and only then do we realize what we missed. 

Instead of falling behind, let's prepare for history. There are plenty of milestones awaiting in 2022. Some will be reached. Others are possibilities but might not occur. You would rather be safe than sorry. 

There are a few drivers who can make more history than others, but there is plenty of milestones that could be met for a few different drivers this season. 

Scott Dixon - Second all-time in victories

Where is he at: 51 victories, currently third all-time.

What does he need to do: Two victories would move Dixon into second all-time, surpassing Mario Andretti's 52 victories and putting Dixon only behind A.J. Foyt's 67. 

We have been waiting for Dixon to reach second all-time ever since he hit 50 victories at Gateway in 2020. It felt like he was going to get second all-time in 2021, especially after winning the third race of the season at Texas. However, that was his only victory. Now he needs one to tie Andretti and two to surpass him. 

The good news for us, and the good news for Dixon, is he has won a race in 17 consecutive seasons and in 14 of those seasons he won at least twice. I think we will see this happen at some point in 2022. 

(By the way, this isn't the last time you are going to see Dixon. No surprise that Dixon could make a lot of history this season).

Hélio Castroneves - Five-time Indianapolis 500 winner

Where is he at: Four-time Indianapolis 500 winners, one of four drivers with four Indianapolis 500 victories.

What does he need to do: Simple, win the Indianapolis 500. 

This is the first time since 1993 a driver will be attempting to win a fifth Indianapolis 500. The last driver to take a shot was Al Unser driving the #80 Budweiser Lola-Chevrolet for King Racing. Twenty-nine years later, Castroneves will now get a chance to move himself ahead of A.J Foyt, Rick Mears and Unser. 

Back in 2009, right after Castroneves won his third, it felt like a fourth Indianapolis 500 victory would be an incredible achievement, and a fifth felt realistic for Castroneves considering he was winning one out of every three Indianapolis 500 starts. Maybe it has been time, nearly 13 years since that third "500" victory for Castroneves, or the pandemic, but for as great as it was to see Castroneves win his fourth Indianapolis 500, it didn't resonate as much as I would have thought it would have. I cannot imagine a fifth being all that different. It would be cool to see, but a minor deal in the sporting world. 

Dixon - Most different tracks with a victory

Where is he at: 25 different tracks with a victory.

What does he need to do: Win at two different tracks, and any combination of St. Petersburg, Barber, the IMS road course, Nashville, Portland and/or Laguna Seca will do. 

Mario Andretti holds this record with 26 different circuits, but Dixon is there. Dixon has been one of the best at Barber, but he hasn't been able to pull out a victory. He can win anywhere, and no one would be surprised if he got this record. 

Castroneves - 100 Podium Finishes

Where is he at: 94 podium finishes.

What does he need to do: Obviously, six more podium finishes, but what 100 podium finishes mean is he would become just the fifth driver to reach 100 podium finishes.

Mario Andretti is the all-time leader with 144. Dixon is second on 127 podium finishes and counting. A.J. Foyt is on 119 and Michael Andretti retired on an even 100. 

How likely is it that Castroneves reaches this mark in 2022? Unlikely, but not impossible. Castroneves had had five seasons with at least six podium finishes (seven in 2002, eight in 2003, six in 2006, 11 in 2008 and six in 2014). IndyCar is much tougher than it was in those five seasons and Castroneves has not been full-time since 2017. I think three podium finishes would be a great year for Castroneves. Six would be tremendous. 

Jimmie Johnson - Second-oldest Indianapolis 500 rookie

Where is he at: Zero Indianapolis 500 starts.

What does he need to do: Start the Indianapolis 500. 

If Johnson takes the green flag on the afternoon of May 29, 2022, he will be 46 years, eight months, and 12 days old. The only driver to make an Indianapolis 500 debut at an older age is Jean Alesi when the Frenchman made his one and only ill-fated "500" start in 2012 driving a Lotus-powered car at 47 years, 11 months, and 16 days old. 

I am not sure there is a better fact to illustrate what Johnson is doing in his career than this one. This is a second career for him. This isn't Kurt Busch attempting The Double and Indianapolis is forever a one-off thing he did at 35 years, nine months, and 21 days old. This isn't a disillusioned Fernando Alonso coming to Indianapolis because the McLaren F1 entry is dreadful at 35 years, nine months, and 29 days old. Johnson is nearly 11 years older than those famous Indianapolis 500 entries. He isn't in his prime. His skills aren't at his sharpest, and yet he is taking the shot. 

This isn't even the biggest history Johnson could make at Indianapolis. The two-time Daytona 500 winner could join Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt as the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 and Indianapolis 500. Now that is history!

Dixon - 20th season with a victory

Where is he at: 19 seasons with a victory.

What does he need to do: Win a race!

Dixon is already the all-time leader in seasons with a victory, but there is something about reaching that 20 seasons milestone that would put it over the top. Two complete decades with a victory. Neither Foyt nor Andretti did it and both were around for over 30 years. Al Unser won in only 14 of the 30 seasons he participated in. 

No one else is really close to 20 seasons. Hélio Castroneves had won in 16 seasons, but he is five years older than Dixon and it is uncertain he will be around long enough to reach this milestone let alone win a race in four more seasons. Will Power is on 15 seasons, which is close, but he would need to win a race for the next five years. We aren't sure Power is going to drive for the next five years let alone win races in that time. Dixon could achieve this and be the only driver to reach this mark for quite some time. 

Takuma Sato - 200th start

Where is he at: 198 starts.

What does he need to do: Start two races and it is likely he will reach this milestone at Texas. The start milestones are a sign of longevity. I am not sure many of us realize how long Sato has been around in IndyCar. He debuted in 2010 and was quietly around for an entire decade. That is forgetting he made 90 starts in Formula One, ranking him 89th all-time. If only he had been given the BAR-Honda seat in 2003, Super Aguri not folded in 2008 or Toro Rosso had hired him in 2009, Sato would be one of the few drivers with 100 starts in each Formula One and IndyCar. 

He will soon fall down the Formula One order. Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly and Charles Leclerc are all within ten starts of Sato and they are all still younger than Sato was when Sato made his grand prix debut.

Sato is set to become the 26th driver to reach the 200-start milestone. You can probably name most of the drivers who have made 200 starts, but there are probably plenty of drivers you would name and be wrong. 

Who didn't make it to 200 starts? Emerson Fittipaldi and Adrián Fernández each retired on 195 starts. If it wasn't for Fittipaldi's accident at Michigan in 1996 then he would have easily cleared 200. If Fernández hadn't bloomed so late and if the financial landscape had been better in the mid-2000s, perhaps Fernández would have stayed in IndyCar and not moved to sports cars.

Dick Simon only made 182 starts, Bryan Herta 179. Lloyd Ruby 176. Danny Sullivan and Arie Luyendyk each ended on 170 starts. 

Alexander Rossi - 100th start

Where is he at: 93 starts.

What does he need to do: Make seven more starts, and Rossi will likely reach this in Detroit. 

I feel like 100 starts it the end to the first part of a career. Many drivers make it to 100. Only 55 drivers have made it to 150 starts. For Rossi, the last two seasons have been disappointing. After taking IndyCar by storm in his first three years, he has fallen short of a championship. Race victories have dried up. He once had a winning percentage of 11.667%. He won seven of his first 60 starts. He is now at 7.526% and if he goes winless through the first seven events of 2022, he will be down 7%. 

That isn't bad. Ryan Hunter-Reay had a winning percentage of 6.38%. Tony Kanaan is down to 4.39%. At Josef Newgarden's 100th start, he was only at 5%. Now, Newgarden is up to 12.195%.

There is plenty of time for Rossi to swing back around, but everything that happens after Rossi's 100th start will define his IndyCar career.

Dixon - 300 consecutive starts

Where is he at: 288 consecutive starts.

What does he need to do: Start the first 12 races of 2022. 

Dixon has not missed a race since a practice accident knocked him out of Milwaukee in 2004. He currently has the second consecutive longest start streak in IndyCar history, and he could become just the second driver to make 300 consecutive starts in IndyCar history.  

If he runs the full season, he will finish on 305 consecutive starts and be just 13 off Tony Kanaan's record of 318 starts stretching from Portland 2001 to the 2020 season opener at Texas. 

This is another record in grasp for Dixon, but it is two years away. 

Graham Rahal - Third-most starts between victories

Where is he at: 73 starts since his last victory.

What does he need to do: Not win any of the first five races and then win a race.

It has been over four-and-a-half years since Rahal's most recent IndyCar victory, finishing the sweep of the Belle Isle doubleheader in 2017. He has had a few close calls, but he has not made it back to the top step of the podium. 

Normally, we don't like to look at negative things like this, but there is something interesting about Rahal's drought. He hasn't won in 73 starts. If he were to win the 2022 season opener at St. Petersburg, this would be the fifth longest drought snapped in IndyCar history. If he were to win at Texas, he would tie Mario Andretti for the fourth longest drought snapped on 74 races. But if he were to not win one of the first five races and win this season, Rahal would have the third most starts between victories in IndyCar history.

What are the two longer droughts? Johnny Rutherford's 97 starts between his first career victory at Atlanta in 1965 and his second career victory in one of the California 500 qualifying races in 1973, and Graham Rahal's 124 starts between his first career victory at St. Petersburg in 2008 and Fontana in 2015.

Rahal could own the first and third longest droughts snapped in IndyCar history. No driver has snapped multiple droughts of 50 starts or more in a career. I know this is an honor no driver would like to have, and Rahal is chastised for not being more successful, but if Rahal does win a race this season, I think it shows perseverance. He should have won at least three or four times in the last four seasons. A few things didn't go his way, but Rahal keeps trying. 

That next victory is coming and if he doesn't win one of the first five races and assures himself at least third on this dubious list, the sixth race of 2022 is the Indianapolis 500 and that would be the perfect place for a drought to end. 

Will Power - All-time pole position leader

Where is he at: 63 pole positions

What does he need to do: Win five pole positions this season. 

Power could have gotten the all-time pole position record last year, but after a below-average year with one pole position meant he barely made a dent in his deficit to Mario Andretti's record. However, one pole position seasons are flukes for Power.

Since becoming a full-time driver in 2006, Power has seven seasons with five pole positions or more, and only three seasons with exactly one pole position. 

Power is due for a market correction. Five pole positions is still a lot, but if any driver can do achieve it, Power is the guy. I think the worst he does this year is end 2022 tied with Andretti and enter 2023 knowing his next pole position is the record. Either way, the record is falling either this year or next. 

Josef Newgarden - 3,000 laps led

Where is he at: 2,854 laps led.

What does he need to do: Lead 166 laps. 

Newgarden could reach this milestone about halfway through the Texas race. Only 15 drivers have led 3,000 laps in a career. Newgarden enters 2022 only two laps behind Tony Bettenhausen for 18th all-time, 11 laps behind Dan Wheldon for 17th and 117 laps behind Rodger Ward for 16th. He will be passing some notable names on his way to 3,000 laps led. 

How high could Newgarden climb in 2022? With Iowa having two races, the sky is the limit, but using data, Newgarden has led over 300 laps in seven consecutive seasons, and he has averaged 404.714 laps led over that spell with a median of 390. Using a range of 390 to 405 laps led, he could end up between 3,244 and 3,259 laps led. That would get him ahead of Bobby Rahal, who is 15th on 3,107 laps led but still over 100 laps behind Gordon Johncock in 14th. 

Dixon - 6,500 laps led

Where is he at: 6,342 laps led.

What does he need to do: Lead 158 laps. 

This is going to happen. He has led at least 158 laps in six of the last seven seasons and in 14 of the last 16 seasons. What does it mean if he reaches 6,500 laps led?

Dixon would be just the fourth driver to reach this milestone, but he could climb even higher. Dixon enters this season only 279 laps behind A.J. Foyt for third all-time and 350 laps behind Michael Andretti for second. He has led 340 laps and 401 laps in the last two seasons. He has led over 250 laps in five of the last seven seasons. 

Colton Herta - Eight victories in 50 starts

Where is he at: Six career victories in 48 starts.

What does he need to do: Win the first two races of the season.

This sounds like an odd one. What is a big deal about eight victories in 50 starts? Well, six victories out of 48 starts means Herta is winning one out of every eight starts, a winning percentage of 12.5%, greater than Newgarden at the present moment. If he were to win eight of his first 50 starts, he would have a 16% winning percentage. 

He will not be close to the record for most victories in the first 50 starts of a career. Sébastien Bourdais won 19 of his first 50 starts. Tony Bettenhausen had 18 victories in his first 50 starts. Jimmy Bryan had 17, Alex Zanardi had 15, Mario Andretti had 13, Johnnie Parsons had 11, Sam Hornish, Jr., Juan Pablo Montoya, and Dan Wheldon all had ten and Paul Tracy had nine victories. 

But do you know who had exactly eight victories in his first 50 starts? A.J. Foyt. 

If Colton Herta wins the first two races of 2022, he will remain on pace with A.J. Foyt. Herta only turns 22 years old this March 30. It is too soon to think he will break Foyt's record of 67 victories, but if Herta is at least on pace, we have to keep it in mind. 

It is unlikely Herta opens the season with two consecutive victories, especially after ending 2021 with two consecutive victories. Even if Herta only has six victories through 50 starts, it would tie him for 16th most victories at that point in a career with Danny Ongais. He already has more victories than Dario Franchitti, Bobby Rahal, teammate Alexander Rossi, Scott Dixon, Emerson Fittipaldi, Gordon Johncock and team owner Michael Andretti at this point in a career.

Herta is special, but the way he is going, he is set to do something great. 

Tony Kanaan and/or Juan Pablo Montoya - Four different decades with an IndyCar victory

Where are they at: Kanaan and Montoya have each won a race in three different decades.

What do they need to do: Win one race from now until the end of eternity. 

The problem for these drivers is Kanaan's plan is to only run the Indianapolis 500, and Montoya will only run the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the "500." Neither will have many opportunities to get that victory, and if Montoya doesn't win the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, then both drivers will only have the Indianapolis 500 to reach this milestone. Both cannot win the Indianapolis. 

If either were to win in 2022, they would become just the second driver to win in four different decades, joining Mario Andretti. I think that is a crazy fact and Kanaan and Montoya are the only winners from the 1990s still around. If neither these drivers can do it we are waiting until 2030 for this to be achieved, and I am not sure Scott Dixon or Will Power are going to stick around. Graham Rahal still must win in this decade to have a shot for this achievement in 2030. 

All we have are Kanaan and Montoya as one-offs. It likely will not happen, but it would be cool to see. Montoya could also join Bobby Unser as the only drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 in three different decades. That is a fitting accomplishment for Montoya, one of the greatest drivers of his generation. 

There will be plenty of other historic things to happen this year, but these are just a few to keep in mind. Some will happen, and you be glad you were prepared for these moments. 

2022 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

There is already one NASCAR event in the books for 2022, as the Clash took place at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, debuting the new Cup car. Joey Logano won the exhibition race and the 2018 Cup Series champion heads to Daytona with the momentum. 

Like every Cup season since 2001, 36 races are scheduled, but there have been a few changes and a new track awaiting the Cup Series. 

Daytona is again the season opener, and the western swing of Fontana, Las Vegas and Phoenix follows. The first Atlanta race on the reconfigured circuit with an increase to 28º banking in the turn will take place on March 20. Austin moves up to the end of March after being on a wet mid-May day last year. Richmond kicks off the month of April and consecutive Virginia races ahead of Martinsville on Saturday April 9. 

The Bristol dirt race will be eight days later, Easter night. Talladega closes the month of April before Dover, Darlington and Kansas. The All-Star Race returns to the weekend before Memorial Day weekend, and it remains at Texas Motor Speedway for the second consecutive year. 

The Coca-Cola 600 remains Memorial Day weekend. Gateway hosts its first NASCAR Cup Series race on Sunday June 5. Sonoma will be the following Sunday. After Sonoma, the Cup Series gets an off week, the only off weekend scheduled during this season. 

On June 26, Nashville restarts the season with the Cup Series hitting the halfway point of the season at Road America on July 3. NASCAR makes it first return to a track on July 10 at Atlanta before four consecutive one-visit tracks: Loudon, Pocono, which doesn't have two races for the first time since 1981, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in another combination weekend with IndyCar, and Michigan. 

Watkins Glen is the penultimate regular season race on August 21 ahead of the Daytona regular season finale on August 27.

Darlington opens the playoffs, but Kansas is the second race of round one after being in the semifinal round for the previous two seasons. Round one closes at Bristol on September 17. 

Texas opens round two after being a semifinal race every year of this championship format. Talladega opens the month of October ahead of the Charlotte roval race. 

Las Vegas moves back to the semifinal round and Homestead moves back to the playoffs, occupying the antepenultimate spot in the calendar ahead of Martinsville. For the third consecutive year, Phoenix will host the season finale on November 6.

Practice and qualifying will return to every race weekend this season. Daytona, the first Atlanta race, Bristol dirt race, Gateway, Nashville and Phoenix finale will all get extended practice. At the other oval races, the field will be split into two groups and each group will get 15 minutes of practice. At road courses, each group will get 20 minutes of practice. 

For qualifying, the teams will remain in their groups and the top five from each group will advance to a final round to decide pole position at most ovals. At Daytona and Talladega, the cars will all run one lap with the top ten runners advancing to the second round for pole position. On road courses, the final round of qualifying will be a ten-minute session to decide pole position. The Bristol dirt race will set the grid via four qualifying heat races.

With the schedule and practice/qualifying format off the table, it is time to look over the teams and drivers, see how the field is shaping up, and flesh out the expectations for these organizations. 

Chartered Teams

Ross Chastain - #1 AdventHealth Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2021 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Chastain is technically joining a new team as Trackhouse purchased Chip Ganassi Racing's assets, but he will be in familiar surroundings. Trackhouse had a good debut season with Daniel Suárez but left a lot of room for improvement. Chastain finished in the top fifteen in half the races with his best results coming on shorter ovals and road courses, but he wasn't really on the bubble for a playoff spot on points. He will be in the same spot as last year.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He has finished in the top ten in two of his three Daytona 500 starts and this all be Chastain's fourth different team in four Daytona 500 starts. It is more likely Chastain gets a victory at a shorter track. He was second at Nashville, third in the Southern 500, seventh at Richmond and eighth at Loudon.

Austin Cindric - #2 Menards/Discount TiresFord

Team: Team Penske
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible (Second in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 15th (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: With the new car better designed for road courses and Cindric's road course ability, he should win at least one of the six road course races, five of which are in the regular season, which makes it more likely he makes the playoffs. Though pigeonholed as a road course specialist, Cindric has been fine on ovals. Nine of his 13 victories in NASCAR's second division were on ovals including two at Daytona, two at Phoenix, three on 1.5-mile ovals, Dover and Pocono. All he is missing is a short track. 

Outside of Cole Custer's fluke Kentucky victory in 2020, rookies have not really been playoff contenders. Cindric should at least be in the conversation on points, and one victory in the first 26 races is probable for him.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Really, anywhere, though we are all expecting a road course. Unlike previous seasons when rookies are stepping into a new scenario with veterans who are experienced with the machinery, this is a new car for everyone. The learning curve is lesser for Cindric and other rookies this year. 

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/DOW/Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Pretty good. If it wasn't for Michael McDowell winning last year's Daytona 500 and Aric Almirola winning at Loudon, Dillon would have been in the playoffs. He was 13th in points after 26 races, but four drivers behind him had victories. Kurt Busch and Christopher Bell were both in the top 16, but it was McDowell and Almirola that knocked Dillon out. 

Dillon was good but not great in 2021. His only top five was third in the Daytona 500 and he had only eight top ten finishes. He was in the top fifteen of the final ten races, but his best result was tenth. One advantage many are pointing toward for Dillon is he spend a lot of time as a test driver of the new car. That extra time could play into his favor. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Half of Dillon's top ten finishes last year came on 1.5-mile ovals. 

Kevin Harvick - #4 Busch/Jimmy John's/Mobil 1/GearWrench/Rheem Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2007)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Though Harvick was far off his 2020 output, he was one of the better drivers in 2021. Twenty-four top ten finishes were behind only Kyle Larson's 26 and Denny Hamlin's 25. But Harvick had only ten top five finishes and zero victories. The most concerning thing is Harvick really was in contention for one victory, the September Bristol race. His consistency alone had him score the sixth most points in 2021. 

If last year was the worst-case scenario than that means Harvick is a borderline top five driver at this worst. Based on recent seasons, he will improve, win a few races and be a threat for a deep playoff run. There is still a lingering worry that it could get worse, and we will not know until he start seeing results from the #4 team.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. It feels like if Harvick is going to win a race it will come early. He has great history at Atlanta, though that track has undergone a reconfiguration. The Richmond, Martinsville, Bristol dirt race triplet of races in April could also be favorable for him.  

Kyle Larson - #5 HendrickCars.com/Cincinnati/Freightliner/ValvolineChevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Larson will be back, and he will push for a second consecutive championship. Will he win ten races and lead over 2,500 laps again? Unlikely, but five victories and 1,800 laps led is still a great season and one worthy of a championship. Larson is not going to fall off. He will win on short tracks. He will win on intermediate tracks. He could win on a road course. We will be hearing from Larson all the time in 2022.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is more of a case of how long does it take for Larson to get his first victory of the season? Could he win the Daytona 500? Yes. Fontana? Definitely? Vegas? That is where he scored his first victory last year. We are all wondering how he does at the Bristol dirt race. He was quick last year but was caught in an early accident. If he can get through the first 50 laps, he will likely be a contender at the finish.

Brad Keselowski - #6 Fastenal/Violet Defense/Kohler Generators Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Changing teams and becoming a part owner adds another level to Keselowski's responsibilities in 2022. Roush Fenway Racing had three top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes total in 2021. Keselowski had ten top five finishes and 17 top ten finishes on his own last year. The 2012 champion is a talented driver, but this is a giant step backward from Team Penske. 

Keselowski should be on the fringe on points alone, and he is great at Talladega, but his playoff spot is far from certain after being the case since the introduction of this championship format. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: With this new team, I think Keselowski is in the Daytona/Talladega group. I am not sure he will be the same Keselowski we have seen at Atlanta, Richmond, Michigan and other tracks he has succeeded at. 

Corey LaJoie - #7 Built/Schluter Sytems/Nations GuardChevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: The new car brings the smaller teams like Spire Motorsports close to the top. LaJoie had one top ten finish last year, ninth in the Daytona 500. He had only two other top fifteen finishes all season, 15th at Nashville and 15th at Darlington. He was outside the top twenty in 26 of 35 starts last year. He might be closer to the top, but he is still far from being a playoff contender on speed alone.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Make him driver #2 in the Daytona/Talladega group.

Tyler Reddick - #8 3CHI/Guaranteed Rate Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019, 2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Excellent. Reddick had 16 top ten finishes and was 11th in points at the end of the regular season last year. He scored the 11th most points last year. Reddick could be ready for a breakout season, and it feels like he could potentially win a race purely on speed in 2021. He did have only three top five finishes last year, second at Homestead, fifth in the August Daytona race and second at the Charlotte roval. He also led only 43 laps. It might be tough, but Reddick should be set on points and a victory is not crazy.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Short track or road course. 

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Hooters/Llumar/Kelley Blue Book/UniFirst Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Elliott will be there. He made it back to the Championship Four, defending his title until the final lap, but Elliott's only two victories were Austin and Road America, road courses and he was fortunate Austin was called early due to rain. It was a solid season, 15 top fives and 21 top tens. He also led 289 laps at Martinsville and 129 laps at Bristol in the playoffs, two races where contact knocked him out of contention. It was surprising he didn't win an oval race at all in 2021, but I doubt that happens again, and if the results go his way, he could be back in the Championship Four and fighting for a title.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The expectation is Elliott will win on a road course. I think he will have good runs on short tracks. We should see Elliott win on a variety of circuits.

Aric Almirola - #10 Smithfield Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 15th (2017)
2022 Playoff Prospects: If it wasn't for a fluky day in Loudon, Almirola wouldn't have made the playoffs in 2021. He has had good years, but there was a swift regression from his first three seasons with Stewart-Haas Racing. The entire team struggled in 2021, but for Almirola to go from 18 top ten finishes to five is startling. The team could rebound, and Almirola could be back to ten to 15 top ten finishes and in the playoff mix, but seeing how good the Cup Series is, I think he will be fighting for one of those final spots on points at best, and I am not sure another overcast day in New Hampshire will save him.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: All five of Almirola's top ten finishes in 2021 came at tracks shorter than 1.5 miles in length. His last ten top ten finishes dating back to 2020 came on tracks shorter than 1.5 miles in length, which is interesting because in his ten top ten finishes before this stretch, only one was on a track shorter than 1.5 miles. A place like Richmond or the concrete of Dover or Nashville will be Almirola's best shot at victory in his final full Cup season. 

Denny Hamlin - #11 FedEx Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Hamlin will be there. It is a matter of does he make it with eight victories and look like the best driver in the series or no victories but consistent as Swiss rail service? Hamlin had a few regular season races slip from his hands. His season was better than his victory total suggested. He is going to win more than he did in 2021 and more than he did in the regular season. 

Hamlin knows he is one of the most successful drivers without a championship, and he has been knocking on that door for the last three seasons. The ability is there for him to do it and he will take it deep into the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hamlin led 1,502 laps in 2021; 1,036 of those laps were on tracks shorter than 1.5 miles in length. He is going to have multiple short track victories this year. 

Ryan Blaney - #12 Menards/Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmor/DEX Imaging/Wurth/Discount Tire Ford

Team: Team Penske
2021 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Blaney will be there and after taking a step forward in 2021, he should be a challenger for a final four spot. He was a semifinal driver last year and an accident in Kansas was a setback he couldn't overcome. He won three races but in those three races he led a combined 40 laps and led fewer than ten laps in two of them. But he had 11 top five finishes for the third consecutive season and a personal best 20 top ten finishes. He is going to win races and take another step forward.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Blaney has been stellar on restrictor plate tracks, so a Daytona 500 victory right off the crack of the bat would not be surprising. Only twice did he lead over 50 laps last year, 157 laps in the spring Martinsville race and 64 laps at Loudon. A victory at Martinsville in October to lock up a final four spot and fight for the title at Phoenix is something realistic I see happening in 2022.

Chase Briscoe - #14 Mahindra Ag North America/High Point Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Briscoe's rookie season was a little disappointing, but he might have joined Stewart-Haas Racing at the wrong time. He still had some good results, but three top ten finishes, all on road courses, was less than we expected after a sensational run in NASCAR's second division. Briscoe should be closer to a playoff spot this year. He should get some top ten finishes on ovals. Can he make the leap to race victory contender? It is hard to imagine on ovals based on 2021 results, but road courses he has a prayer, and if the season starts well, he could be a greater contender on ovals. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For now road courses. He looked good in the wet last year at Austin. He was one of the better cars at Indianapolis. 

David Ragan - #15 Rick Ware Racing Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 38th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Zilch, because Ragan will be one of at least four drivers to drive the #15 Ford in 2022. Joey Hand will run on road courses, Ryan Preece will run a few races in partnership with Stewart-Haas Racing, and Garrett Smithley will also be in the car at some point. Ragan will also run a few more times after the Daytona 500.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For the team, Hand could pull out a road course result. It is unlikely but the most likely option for this team.

Daniel Hemric - #16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2021 NASCAR Grand National Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 34th (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Hemric will run eight races in the #16 Chevrolet, splitting it with A.J. Allmendinger and Noah Gragson, who will each run 14 races in this car. Hemric will drive for Kaulig in the Grand National Series to defend his title.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Other than the Daytona 500, Hemric will start the other Daytona race in August, Fontana, Las Vegas, both Talladega races and both Darlington races. We should mention that Allmendinger could win in any of his 14 starts.

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol/Violet Defense Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Buescher has been just outside the playoff picture for basically his entire Cup career. I really don't see that changing. Adding Keselowski isn't going to turn the team into one of the top three teams. Buescher has been around 20th, and he will likely stick around 20th. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Five of his 28 top ten finishes have come at Daytona. The only other tracks where he has more than two top ten finishes are Charlotte and Kansas, each with three top ten results.

Kyle Busch - #18 M&Ms/Interstate Batteries/Sports Clips/Rheem Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Lock for the playoffs, but can he get back to his 2015-19 form where he made the final four in each of those five seasons? He has been eighth and ninth in the championship each of the last two seasons, but that ninth last year is a little misleading as he was in the semifinal round. There are higher expectations for Busch with the new car than any other driver, but I am not sure anyone has a good reason other than he won the first race with the Car of Tomorrow. 

The last two seasons saw basically an absence of practice and qualifying. Practice will return but in a much more truncated form than prior to the pandemic. I don't know if it will be enough to return Busch to where he was for those five previous seasons.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch's last five victories have either been on a 1.5-mile oval or Pocono.

Martin Truex, Jr. - #19 Bass Pro Shops/Auto Owners Insurance Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Another lock. Truex has won at least four races in five of the last six seasons. He has had at least 20 top ten finishes in six of the last seven seasons. He has had over a dozen top five finishes in the last five seasons. He has been in the final four in five of the last seven seasons and he has been first or second in the championship in four of the last five seasons. He is going to be there.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: After being chastised for not having a short track victory, five of his last seven victories have been on tracks shorter than a mile and his other two victories were at Phoenix and Darlington. It would be nice if he could win at Daytona or Talladega just to get people to shut up about that.

Christopher Bell - #20 Stanley/DeWalt/Irwin/Craftsman/Rheem/SiriusXM Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 12th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 16th (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Unlike his previous two teammates, it is hard to call Bell a lock, but he should be there. He had great spells, but he was streaky last season. He won the Daytona road course race and then didn't have a top five finish until Richmond in May. After Richmond, he wouldn't finish in the top five again until Road America, which led a string of second, eighth, second and seventh-place finishes, but then he only had one top ten finish in the next seven races. However, Bell would follow that with five top ten finishes in the final six races. 

Looking at how he finished the season, the highs were impressive for Bell and if he does that on a regular basis there is a good chance Gibbs could have all four drivers make the semifinal round.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bell isn't close to "he can win anywhere" territory. He only has one victory to his name, but he is impressively talented, and one standout season could put him in that category. For now, road courses and short tracks, and of course, the Bristol dirt race.

Harrison Burton - #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane/Menards Ford

Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.
2022 Playoff Prospects: Moving up from the Grand National Series, Burton moves over to Ford after spending years in the Toyota development program. Burton was a highly touted driver, but he has been average, in the lower divisions. He never won a Truck race, and he was eighth in the championship each year in the second division. He didn't win a race last year but was a regular top five finisher. I am not sure that is enough to transfer to one of the top sixteen drivers in the Cup Series with a single-car team.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: His NASCAR national series victories have come at Fontana, Homestead, Texas and Martinsville. He was also consistent on the road courses last year with five top ten finishes in seven starts.

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford

Team: Team Penske
2021 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Logano's problem is not whether he will make the playoffs, rather what can he do in the playoffs. In the last three seasons, he has one playoff race victory. In the first five seasons of this championship format, he won nine playoff races. He has had double-figure top five totals in nine consecutive seasons and at least 20 top ten finishes in six of those years. He is plenty wise enough to make the playoffs and make a deep run, but it doesn't always play out for him.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Logano is an anywhere guy. Strangely, he has never won at a track more than three times. Those tracks are Talladega, Michigan and Kansas. He has won at 16 tracks in his career.

Bubba Wallace - #23 Door Dash/McDonald's/Columbia/Leidos Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Wallace took a historic victory last year, but it was another flash in the pan season. Three top five finishes, but those were his only top ten results. Half of his 12 career top ten finishes have been top five results. The most laps he has ever led in a race is 23. On only two other occasions has he led more than ten laps, both at Talladega. While not being a top ten regular, he was in the top twenty in 20 races last year, 11 of which were top fifteen finishes. On points alone, he was 19th. If he can score more top ten results, he could get one of the final positions on points, but most likely he will need a victory to make it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He has already won at Talladega and all six of his top five finishes have been on ovals 2.5 miles in length or larger. 

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Valvoline/Liberty Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Byron opened 2021 with 11 top ten finishes in the first 13 races, including a victory at Homestead. He also had eight top five finishes in the first 18 races. He only had four top five finishes in the final 18 races. If he can prevent that second half dip, he could be a championship threat. His biggest issue is outside of his Homestead victory there really wasn't a race he controlled. He will need to do that more this year.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Though he has yet to win there, Byron had an average finish of 9.1 at Pocono with five top ten finishes in eight starts. He also had three top five finishes and four top ten finishes in eight Martinsville starts.

Justin Haley - #31 LeafFilter Gutter Protection Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: After three seasons, four victories and at least 20 top ten finishes in each of those three years in NASCAR's second division, Haley moves up to the Cup Series. He did start 31 races last year driving for Spire Motorsports in a learning season. He did pick up two top finishes in Cup with an eighth on the IMS road course and sixth in the August Daytona race. 

Kaulig had a respectable year running part-time in 2021. Based on all its Grand National Series success, it wouldn't be surprising if it put Haley in the playoff discussion. If Haley is in the top twenty of the championship this will have been a successful year.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For Haley's consistency, it is surprising his only victories in the Grand National Series were at Daytona and Talladega. He was second and third in his two IMS road course starts, and he won at Mosport in Trucks. He also averaged a finish of 5.3 at Kansas, 5.8 at Atlanta and 7.4 at Richmond. His first career Truck victory was also at Gateway. In 11 starts between NASCAR's lower two divisions at Texas, he has ten top ten finishes with one Truck victory.

Michael McDowell - #34 Love's Travel Stops Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Well, he made it last year with a Daytona 500 victory, so I guess it is possible. McDowell did have a crazy start to the 2021 season with an eighth on the Daytona road course and a sixth at Homestead afterward. He would also finish third at Talladega in April and seventh at Austin in May. After that, he didn't have a finish in the top fifteen. I doubt lightning strikes twice. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Make him the third driver in the Daytona/Talladega group. 

Todd Gilliland - #38 First Phase Credit Card Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.
2022 Playoff Prospects: Gilliland makes the leap from Trucks to Cup. After four underwhelming Truck seasons compare to the hype, it feels rushed, but Gilliland moves after his best Truck season, seventh in the championship. He has been good on road courses, but I am not sure he can jump right in and win a race after only two Truck victories in 93 starts.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He is not in the Daytona/Talladega crowd because he could have a stellar day on a road course and pull one out.

Cole Custer - #41 Haas Automation Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Custer had two top ten finishes last year, both tenth-place finishes, at Talladega and Dover. His average finish dropped from 19.2 to 21.3. While he finished 33 races, he was off the lead lap 19 times in 2021. I don't think he can make it back. He shouldn't have been there in 2020. He should improve from 2021 but only because two top ten finishes is a low bar to clear.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is still 1.5-mile ovals.

Ty Dillon - #42 Black Rifle Coffee Company Chevrolet

Team: Petty GMS Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: After spending most of 2021 sidelined splitting time between part-time programs in Cup and the Grand National Series, Dillon is back in Cup after GMS Racing purchased the Richard Petty Motorsports assets and kept the Petty name on the door. This is Petty meets a new team. Dillon's track record is woeful. In 166 Cup starts, he has two top five finishes and six top ten finishes. He has only one victory in 157 Grand National Series starts and three victories in 58 Truck starts. I cannot see Dillon making the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona/Talladega guy #4.

Erik Jones - #43 FOCUSfactor/Air Force Chevrolet

Team: Petty GMS Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Jones is going to struggle to get in on points. He did a good job last year just to get six top ten finishes, half of which came in the final ten races, but I am not sure he can do better than that. He is going to need about a dozen top ten finishes in the regular season to be a playoff hopeful. Maybe he clicks with the new car and is the sleeper of 2022, he has the ability to be that guy, but we need to see it before it can be fully believed.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington is still his best track on the schedule, and he was eighth at both Bristol and Martinsville in the playoffs last year. 

Kurt Busch - #45 Monster Energy/McDonald's Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2017)
2022 Playoff Prospects: The 2004 champion has won a race in eight consecutive seasons. This is a big challenge for Busch. 23XI did a good job last year with Wallace. Expanding to two cars is a risk, but the increase in resources should help the team develop. But for the 42-year-old Busch, this is a big change. He is no longer in established organizations such as Stewart-Haas Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing. Busch does find a way into the playoffs. I think he will do it again, but it could be his toughest year yet and that victory could elude him.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch's last 12 victories have come at 12 different tracks. You must go back to Atlanta 2010 to find a repeat track for Busch. If that does not fulfill the definition of anywhere then I don't know what does.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 Kroger Chevrolet

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2014)
2022 Playoff Prospects: JTG Daugherty is down to one car with Stenhouse. His only top five finish last year was second at the Bristol dirt race. His only other top ten finish was sixth at Nashville. He has been outside the top 20 in the championships the last three years and in six of his nine full Cup seasons. He will need a fortunate victory to make it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Bristol dirt race is the only thing preventing him from joining the Daytona/Talladega crowd. 

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Bowman won four races last year. He never spent a day in the top ten of the championship except for the resets at the start of the playoffs and after round one. He still had 16 top ten finishes. Bowman should be better this year. The only Hendrick Motorsports driver with more victories was Larson. Victories mean something. Bowman should be solidly in on points alone. We know he can pull out victories. He was a semifinal driver in 2020. If he can figure out who he is and find more consistency he could get back there.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is baffling Bowman has yet to win on a road course yet. Four top ten finishes in four Charlotte roval races with two of those results in the top five. He was eighth at Austin, ninth at Sonoma and he was running well at Road America before a late spin last year.

Cody Ware - #51 Nurtec ODT Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: In 32 Cup starts last year, Ware's average finish was 31.1. It is not going to happen, but Rick Ware Racing now has a technical alliance with Stewart-Haas Racing. Anything is possible. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: I guess road courses, but we all know it would require a lot of rain and the most fortunate circumstances for Ware to win one of those. It would have to be rain-shortened. 

Landon Cassill - #77 Fox Nation Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 12th (2014)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Cassill will split the #77 Chevrolet with Josh Bilicki in 2022. Cassill is also ineligible for the Cup championship, as he will be full-time with Kaulig Racing in the Grand National Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Honestly, NASCAR's second division and if he cannot win there with Kaulig Racing then I think we will have a full picture of who he is as a driver.

B.J. McLeod - #78 Live Fast Motorsports Ford

Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)
2022 Playoff Prospects: McLeod was ninth at Daytona last August, but he finished outside the top twenty in his other 27 starts and was outside the top 25 in 24 starts.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona/Talladega group member #5.

Daniel Suárez - #99 CommScope/Tootsies Orchid Lounge Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2021 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 29th
2022 Playoff Prospects: While he had some good races in 2021, Suárez could not replicate those strong performances on a regular basis. However, with Trackhouse now a two-car team and with greater resources, Suárez should be better than he was last year. He will have to do better than four top ten finishes, and he should. Fighting for a playoff spot on points would require a massive improvement.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Suárez best race was the Bristol dirt race last year. We all want to see if he can replicate that form in 2022. He also does well at Texas, Pocono and Dover.

Non-Chartered Teams

Jacques Villeneuve - #27 Team Hezeberg Ford

Team: Team Hezeberg
2021 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.
2022 Playoff Prospects: Team Hezeberg will be part-time in 2022. Villeneuve will share the car with Loris Hezemans, the 2021 NASCAR Euro Series champion. Outside of Daytona, the team plans on running all the road courses and potential a few other events. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For the team, a road course. For Villeneuve... most likely a road course, but if he makes the Daytona 500 then he at least has a shot there, though oh so slim. It is hard to imagine a new team that predominantly runs in the NASCAR Euro Series and partnering with a Truck Series team that has one top five finish and three top ten finishes in 157 starts will even get the car into the Daytona 500, but stranger things have happened. It is an underdog story the Daytona 500 has not seen in a long time, and small teams have overcome the odds before. It will be difficult just for this team to make the race.

Greg Biffle - #44 Grambling State University Chevrolet

Team: NY Racing Team
2021 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2010)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Biffle returns to the Cup Series for the first time since 2016 with this open entry. NY Racing Team is making its first Cup appearance since it ran J.J. Yeley in the 2018 Coca-Cola 600. Prior to that, the team had not made an appearance since it failed to qualify for the Fontana race on March 22, 2015. The team's only Daytona 500 appearance was in 2015 with Reed Sorenson, and the team finished 32nd.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is highly unlikely Biffle wins this race. With this team being thrown together last minute, there is a good chance it will not make the race. Two teams do have to miss after all. But Biffle has won at Daytona before, his first career Cup victory to be specific in the July race. That victory was unexpected. He could have one more unexpected triumph in him. 

Kaz Grala - #50 Pit Viper Sunglasses Chevrolet

Team: The Money Team Racing
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 28th (2021)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Seeing as how Grala's only announced race is Daytona, I would say zero percent.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Depending on how many races Grala does with this team, he could sneak out a road course victory. The chances are slim, but with the new car it cannot entirely be ruled out. 

J.J. Yeley - #55 Hex.com Toyota

Team: MBM Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2013)
2022 Playoff Prospects: At the moment, this is Yeley's only scheduled Cup race, and Yeley has declared himself ineligible for Cup Series points.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, because it is his only race, but it is slim. MBM Motorsports has had at least one car fail to qualify for the last three Daytona 500s. 

Noah Gragson - #62 Beard Oil Chevrolet

Team: Beard Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.
2022 Playoff Prospects: Gragson will be full-time in the NASCAR Grand National Series with JR Motorsports and he will make 14 Cup starts with Kaulig Racing. This is his only scheduled start with Beard Motorsports. After missing out on the Daytona 500 last year, Gragson is one of the top open teams on paper and should be one of the four cars to make the Daytona 500.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He will be making 15 Cup starts, so a Cup victory has greater odds than zero. Three of his five Grand National Series victories have come on short tracks, and his first of two Truck Series victories was at Martinsville. However, he will be starting only two short track races, Richmond in August and Martinsville in October, plus the Bristol dirt race. He did finish in the top ten of both his Eldora truck starts. He will win races in NASCAR's second division, possibly even the championship, but it is unlikely he will win in the Cup Series. 

Timmy Hill - #66 Bumper.com Ford

Team: MBM Motorsports
2021 Championship Finish: Ineligible
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2020)
2022 Playoff Prospects: Hill will not be full-time in Cup this season and he has already declared himself ineligible for Cup points. Boris Said is planning on driving a few races for this team and it will be a rotating seat depending on who brings sponsorship.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Like last year, iRacing. As mentioned above, MBM Motorsports had at least one car fail to qualify for the last three Daytona 500s, including Hill in last year's race.

Playoff Driver Predictions

1. Kyle Busch

2. Denny Hamlin

3. Kyle Larson

4. Ryan Blaney

5. Martin Truex, Jr.

6. Kevin Harvick

7. Chase Elliott

8. Joey Logano

9. Christopher Bell

10. Tyler Reddick

11. Alex Bowman

12. William Byron

13. Austin Cindric

14. Kurt Busch

15. Brad Keselowski

16. Austin Dillon

Daytona 500 qualifying will be tonight, Wednesday February 16, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Daytona 500 qualifying races will be at 7:00 p.m. and 8:45 p.m. on Thursday February 17. There will be a 50-minute practice session on Friday February 18 before another 50-minute session on Saturday February 19.

The 64th Daytona 500 will take place at 2:30 p.m. on Sunday February 20.

Musings From the Weekend: 2022 Possible NASCAR Achievements

The Los Angeles Rams are Super Bowl champions. Conor Daly has too many football jerseys. The Supercross season completed six rounds, half of which have been in Anaheim, and it is a good opening third of the season. The Asian Le Mans Series started this weekend and the championship is halfway over, as it heads to the season finale next week. MotoGP tested in Indonesia and conditions were challenging. Formula One cars are being unveiled. NASCAR will not stop letting you know the Daytona 500 is next weekend. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

2022 Possible NASCAR Achievements

I have done this before ahead of an IndyCar season, and we will do it again ahead that season opener, but it works for any series. With NASCAR's season about to officially start, this is a good chance to look ahead. This season will be different, with the new car, a new track, a new order of races and plenty of driver changes. 

But what else could we see this year? 

Kurt Busch: Winning a NASCAR Cup race with fourth different manufacture

Busch is entering his 23rd NASCAR Cup season, and it will be with a new team, 23XI Racing. 

The 2004 Cup champion has 33 Cup victories, putting him tied for 25th all-time with Fireball Roberts. Busch has won a race in eight consecutive seasons and in 18 of his 21 full-time seasons. But Busch could join an exclusive club this year. 

He will be driving a Toyota for the first time in the Cup Series. He won with Ford at Roush Racing, and later Stewart-Haas Racing. He won with Dodge at Penske Racing. He won with Chevrolet at Stewart-Haas  and Chip Ganassi Racing. 

If Busch were to win this season with Toyota at 23XI Racing, he would become just the 19th driver to with four different manufactures in the NASCAR Cup Series. That might sounds like a high number, but this achievement is rarer than it sounds. 

Of those 18 drivers, only five have won with four different manufactures in NASCAR’s Modern Era (Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, Bobby Allison, Buddy Baker and Neil Bonnett). However, Busch would join Bonnett as the other driver to start a career in the Modern Era to win with four manufactures. 

Some drivers have been close and a few active drivers have won with three manufactures. Brad Keselowski is on three, but he remains with Ford as he purchased into the Roush Fenway organization. Kasey Kahne won with three manufactures but couldn’t get a win with Ford. Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray each won with three manufactures but neither ever drove a Toyota in the Cup Series. 

It could be a long time before any other driver comes close to joining this club again. NASCAR has only had three manufactures since the start of the 2013 season. With Dodge gone, and no other manufacture seriously considering entering the Cup Series, these drivers will likely never have the opportunity to win with four makes. 

Busch is it for the time being. 

Wood Brothers Racing: 100th Cup victory

We have been sitting on this for five years. Ever since Ryan Blaney won at Pocono in 2017, the Wood Brothers have been stuck on 99 Cup victories. It is not quite as long as the six years between 98 and 99 nor as long as the nearly ten years between 97 and 98. 

The Wood Brothers have another young driver, rookie Harrison Burton behind the wheel. He is looking to become the 19th driver to win for the team, joining the following drivers:

Glen Wood - 4

Speedy Thompson - 2

Tiny Lund - 1

Marvin Panch - 8 

Dan Gurney - 4

A.J. Foyt - 5

Curtis Turner - 1

Cale Yarborough - 13

Donnie Allison - 1

David Pearson - 43

Neil Bonnett - 9

Buddy Baker - 1 

Kyle Petty - 2

Dale Jarrett - 1

Morgan Shepherd - 1

Elliott Sadler - 1

Trevor Bayne - 1

Ryan Blaney - 1

Kaulig Racing: Multiple winners in one Cup car

Kaulig Racing is expanding into Cup full-time in 2022, and Kaulig is doing it with two cars. Justin Haley will be full-time in the #31 Chevrolet, but the #16 Chevrolet will be split between three drivers. A.J. Allmendinger and Noah Gragson will each get 14 races, while Daniel Hemric is looking to make eight starts. 

Last year, Allmendinger scored Kaulig Racing's first Cup victory at Indianapolis. Another road course victory is highly probable for Allmendinger and Kaulig, but with the new car, and after seeing Kaulig's pace as a part-time team, it is possible either or both Gragson or Hemric could be a surprise winner. 

Hermic has already been a full-time Cup driver. He is also the defending Grand National Series champion. Gragson is still looking to make his first Cup start, and it could come at the Daytona 500 with Beard Motorsports, but Gragson showed good speed in 2021 and it felt he reined in his aggression. 

Neither driver can be ruled out, but should Kaulig Racing have multiple winners, it begs the question, when was the last time one car had multiple winners in a single Cup season? 

It was 2002. Sterling Marlin won twice in the #40 Dodge for Chip Ganassi Racing, but a broken neck late in the season forced him out of the car. In slid Jamie McMurray, who won in his second Cup start at Charlotte.

There have only been two other occasions in NASCAR’s Modern Era where one entry has had multiple winners. It happening in 1979 with Dale Earnhardt and David Pearson in the #2 Chevrolet for Rod Osterlund, and it also happened in 1972 with A. J. Foyt and David Pearson in the #21 Mercury for the Wood Brothers.

This could really happen for any team, but Kaulig Racing is the most likely option with its lineup. 

Jeremy Clements and Justin Allgaier: 400 NASCAR Grand National Series starts

There is more than just the Cup Series and there are plenty of drivers in NASCAR's lower divisions looking to reach milestones in 2022. 

Clements and Allgaier established themselves as second series regulars in the 2010s. Allgaier has been a regular championship contender while Clements has had some competitive moments and his only victory was at Road America in 2018. 

Four-hundred starts might not sound like a lot, but only eight drivers have reached 400 starts in NASCAR's second division. Kenny Wallace is the all-time leader at 547 starts ahead of Jeff Green (535), Jason Keller (520), Mike Wallace (497), Joe Nemechek (453), Morgan Shepherd (463), Tommy Houston (417) and David Green (404).

Clements only needs two starts to reach 400, and he will likely end the season seventh all-time in starts. Allgaier has a little more work to do. He needs to make 28 starts, so he is on track to join the club at Talladega. 

In case you are wondering, the next active driver in starts is Kyle Busch at 362, but with Busch being full-time in Cup, and Busch announced he will not run in this series in 2022, it is unlikely he will reach 400 starts. The next driver is J.J. Yeley on 351 starts.

Matt Crafton: 500 NASCAR Truck Series starts

Crafton is already the all-time leader in Truck starts, and he is 138 starts ahead of Ron Hornaday, Jr. in second all-time. The closest active driver in Truck starts is Johnny Sauter on 311 starts. Only seven drivers have reach 300 starts. Only 15 drivers have reached 200 starts.

There have been 643 Truck races all-time. Crafton has been in 498 Truck races, 77.449% of every Truck race to take place in 27 seasons. Crafton should reach 500 starts at Las Vegas. Here are his other milestone starts:

1st start: Fontana October 28, 2000 (9th)

100th start: Atlanta March 18, 2005 (14th) 

200th start: Atlanta March 7, 2009 (11th)

300th start: Iowa July 11, 2014 (3rd)

400th start: Las Vegas September 14, 2018 (5th)

Kyle Busch: 8th all-time in Cup Series laps led

Busch has accomplished a lot in his Cup career and he still has a few years before he turns 40 years old. While being the active leader in Cup Series victories, Busch is also the active leader in laps led, but we kind of lose track of how many laps he has led. 

Currently tenth all-time with 18,281 laps led, Busch is 2,499 laps led ahead of the next active driver, Kevin Harvick. Busch has a chance to put a few drivers between him and Harvick. Busch needs to lead 661 laps to pass Jimmie Johnson for ninth all-time, but eighth is highly likely, as Busch only needs 671 laps to pass Rusty Wallace for eighth. Seventh is not really practical, as Busch is 4,853 laps behind Darrell Waltrip.

What is the likelihood Busch gets to eighth? He only led 516 laps in 2020 and 334 laps last season, his lowest total as a full-time Cup driver, but he did lead over 700 laps in each season from 2015 through 2019, he led over 1,000 laps in four of those and he led over 2,000 laps in 2017. 

It could be a stretch, but Busch hits it off in the new car, he could be moving up the laps led order.

Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick: 60th career Cup Series victory

Speaking of Busch and Harvick, they both have a historic milestone in reach. Only eight drivers have won at least 60 Cup races. For the longest time, there was a massive gulf in the record book with Dale Earnhardt's 76 victories to Rusty Wallace's 55 victories. While, now Busch and Harvick fill that gap, but they have some work to do before they will get to Earnhardt. 

Sixty is the next thing in each of their windscreens. Busch only needs one more victory. Harvick needs two after coming off a winless season. Both driver should win races, and both drives should reach this milestone. But who gets there first? 

Harvick is more hungry after a disappointing 2021 season. They should both get to 60 early in the season.

Denny Hamlin: 50th career Cup Series victory

While Busch and Harvick are going for 60, Hamlin is four victories away from 50 Cup victories. He would become the 15th driver with 50 career victories, but more importantly if he gets to 50, he will tie Junior Johnson's record for most victories for a driver without a championship. 

Of course, Hamlin is looking to shed that distinction as well. I think he would rather take three victories and a championship than five victories and still without a championship. 

Hamlin only won two races last year, but he won six times in 2019 and seven times in 2020. In only three other seasons has he won at least four races (2009 - 4, 2010 - 8 and 2012 - 5). Four victories is not a guarantee for Hamlin, but none of us would rule him out. 

Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland: First 21st century Cup winner

We are entering the third year of this decade and we are also entering the point where the children of the 21st century are now becoming adults. Odd, I know. We have yet to have a 21st century driver win a Cup race. Justin Haley is the closest, born April 28, 1999. 

Gilliland was born May 15, 2000, and will drive the #38 Ford for Front Row Motorsports this season. We know Burton will drive for the Wood Brothers, and he was born October 9, 2000. 

It is not highly likely either driver will win a race this year, but we know they will have a shot, and should it happen, we will hear nonstop that they were born in the year 2000. Oh joy!

Winners From the Weekend

You know about the Los Angeles Rams, but did you know...

Pascal Wehrlein won the Mexico City ePrix, his first career victory.

Jason Anderson won the Supercross race from Anaheim, his second of the season. 

The #4 Nielsen Racing Oreca-Gibson of Matt Bell, Ben Hanley and Rodrigo Sales swept the two Asian Le Mans Series race from Dubai. In race one, the #3 CD Sport Ligier-Nissan of Nick Adcock, Edouard Cauhaupé and Michael Jensen won in LMP3, the #7 Inception Racing with Optimum Motorsport McLaren of Ben Barnicoat, Brendan Iribe and Ollie Millroy won in GT. The #57 Kessel Racing Ferrari of Axcil Jefferies, Roman Ziemian and Francesco Zollo swept the races in GT-Am. 

In the second Asian Le Mans Series race from Dubai, the #8 Nielsen Racing Ligier-Nissan of Colin Noble and Anthony Wells won in LMP3, and the #55 Rinaldi Racing Ferrari of Rino Mastronardi, David Perel and Davide Rigon won in GT. 

Coming Up This Weekend

Daytona 500.

The final two Asian Le Mans Series races from Abu Dhabi.

Minneapolis hosts Supercross.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

Our final IndyCar team preview has arrived, and it is the defending champions. Chip Ganassi Racing won its second consecutive title with an unlikely source. Álex Palou, in his sophomore IndyCar season, but first with Ganassi, showed he was up for the promotion from day one winning at Barber Motorsports Park. For the first time in a decade, Scott Dixon had a challenger for best in the team. 

Palou wasn't the only one carrying the weight. Dixon won and was never far off his teammate. Marcus Ericsson had a surprising breakout, not surprising that the Swede broke out but how he broke out, with victories from out of nowhere. 

While Ganassi made team history with three different drivers winning a race in a season, it also made history with its fourth entry, primarily with Jimmie Johnson behind the wheel. The seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion moved to open-wheel racing and struggled, but made strides as he endeavored on a road/street course program while Tony Kanaan handled the ovals.

In 2022, there are no changes to the Ganassi lineup, other than Johnson stepping up to full-time competition. 

2021 Chip Ganassi Racing Review

Wins: 6 (Barber, Texas, Belle Isle I, Road America, Nashville, Portland)

Poles: 2 (Indianapolis 500, Portland)

Championship Finish: 1st (Álex Palou), 4th (Scott Dixon), 6th (Marcus Ericsson), 23rd (Jimmie Johnson), 27th (Tony Kanaan)

Marcus Ericsson - #8 Huski Chocolate Honda

After a suitable first season with Chip Ganassi Racing, Ericsson opened 2021 with a pair of top ten finishes. Another promising Texas result was lost in the pit lane when a tire was not properly fasten in the first Texas race. He fell into a mid-pack groove after that with finishes of 12th, tenth and 11th in the next three races. 

Ericsson benefitted from the chaotic nature of the first Belle Isle race and was looking to get a podium finish out of nowhere. Then Will Power's car would not restart after the red flag was lifted with five laps to go. Ericsson assumed the lead and would have a sprint to the finish with Rinus VeeKay on his heels. Ericsson was not all that challenged, and he picked up his first career IndyCar victory basically out of nothing. He followed it with a ninth in race two. 

After finishing sixth at Road America, Ericsson was strong at Mid-Ohio, spending most of the race in second position, but a speck in Josef Newgarden's mirrors. However, in the closing laps of the race, as Newgarden's tire wore and as Newgarden negotiated traffic, Ericsson closed. The Swede was there in case Newgarden made a mistake, but had to settle for second in one of his strongest IndyCar drives. 

Nashville has been covered many times already for Ericsson. He ran over the back of Sébastien Bourdais and nearly retired the car until his damaged wing became unstuck from beneath his tires. In the Simon Pagenaud/Will Power incident on the lap 20 restart, Ericsson nearly stalled, but the car re-fired in time. The team kept making pit stops, topping off for fuel and the disjointed nature of the race saw about eight-dozen different pit strategies. With the leaders caught out, Ericsson cycled to the lead and green flag racing resumed. 

Ericsson kept the lead while some of the faster cars, notably Colton Herta, had to fight from the back. Ericsson faced no pressure, but Herta was moving forward, and Herta had more fuel to burn. In the closing laps, Herta was ready to pounce, but one bad pass attempt caused the American to lose ground. Then Herta got into the tire barrier and ended his race. The race was restarted with two laps to go and Ericsson held on for his second victory of the season. 

The Swede would finish in the top ten of the four races after that, but a collision in the turn one tire barrier at Long Beach meant he was the first driver to start his 2021-22 offseason.

Numbers to Remember:

1,864: Laps completed in 2021, fourth most in IndyCar, behind Simon Pagenaud, Scott McLaughlin and Patricio O'Ward.

10: Races led in his IndyCar career.

1: Race with more than five laps led (Nashville 2021, 37 laps led).

What does a championship season look like for him?

It starts with Ericsson being the top Ganassi driver immediately. A pair of podium finishes out of the box, and no other driver with multiple podium finishes in the first two races. That will have him in the championship lead. Then he wins and he is the only driver with three podium finishes to open the season. 

A slight dip follows and that dip is a top five finish. He is only in the top ten in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but a top ten finish in the Indianapolis 500 doesn't feel as bad, as it will be his best finish in the race and it will pay double points. At Belle Isle, he is on the podium again and he gets another victory at Road America before winning at Mid-Ohio. 

A poor Toronto race is cancelled out with two top ten finishes in Iowa. He gets a top five finish in Nashville, but one he deserves with top five pace. He finishes in the top five at Gateway and it sets him up so a top ten in Portland and a top five at Laguna Seca is enough for Ericsson to make it three different Ganassi drivers with a championship in three seasons.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Ericsson is the best good driver there is in IndyCar right now. While he won two races in 2021, neither were all that impressive from him, and both were frankly down to circumstances. I don't want to belittle the man too much, because he has shown respectable pace in each of his IndyCar seasons, and the results have followed. 

He has been a top ten finisher and a quick driver, but he is rarely the quickest driver. While he won two races in 2021, Ericsson still has not had a race where he has been the man to beat. He needs that in year four of IndyCar. He needs a few races where he starts right at the front, leads lap and forces others to beat him. He can do that in 2022, but most likely he will be a solid driver. He will finish in the top ten and those results compiling will lead to another respectable championship finish. 

The key thing for Ericsson is turning some of those top ten results into more top five results. Three top five finishes is not enough in a season. I think he can make that marginal gain, but not necessarily see him leap further up the championship. 

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda

With a sixth championship claimed, Dixon entered 2022 with a shot at history. Another title would tie him with A.J. Foyt for most all-time. Two more victories and he would equal Mario Andretti for second all-time with three victories enough to put Dixon second on his own, only behind Foyt. 

The season was a classic Dixon start: third, fifth, first and fourth with the championship lead. We hadn't even made it to Indianapolis and people were ready for Dixon to retain the crowd. Indianapolis started with a ninth-place finish on the road course and pole position for the Indianapolis 500. The title appeared close to being claimed on Memorial Day weekend, but Dixon stumbled. 

Stefan Wilson's spin caught Dixon out before his first pit stop. Dixon was going to lose ground anyway, but he was forced to make an emergency stop due to his low fuel level. The car stalled and the electronics had to be completely recycled before he could restart. This cost him a lap and the race wasn't even 100 miles old. 

With a lack of caution, Dixon did not get back on the lead lap until after halfway. The team tried to work a Hail Mary strategy to get a decent result, but all the team could manage was 17th. 

Dixon went on a run of five consecutive top ten finishes after Indianapolis, the last three all being top five finishes, but his summer ended poorly. Indianapolis was not kind to Dixon in 2021. A spin in qualifying meant he had to start 26th. He moved up the order, but finishing on the less ideal primary tires knocked him back to 17th. He was taken out at Gateway when Rinus VeeKay made an ambitious move into turn one. Dixon was third at Portland, but he was collected in Takuma Sato's spin at Long Beach, knocking Dixon down to 13th. Dixon's season ended the way it started, a third-place finish.

Numbers to Remember:

401: Laps led in 2021, Dixon's most in a season since 2012.

369: Laps led at Texas Motor Speedway in 2021.

12: Race victory drought entering the 2022 season, his longest since a 12-race drought between his victories at Toronto in 2018 and Belle Isle in 2019.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Dixon has won six championships. He can win a championship any way. 

He can win the first three races and have a stranglehold on it from day one. He can start slow, not win until the 11th race, go on a late run and take the championship on the final day of the season. He can have a balanced season, winning a race in each quarter and always being better than his competition, but not being flashy. 

 

There are only two multi-time champions in IndyCar currently, Dixon and Josef Newgarden. There are only three other champions in IndyCar. For most drivers, there are only one or two possible ways to win a championship. For Dixon, the possibilities are limitless.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

In the case of Dixon, the question is not how good of a season can he have, but how bad of a season can he have? 

For most drivers, we want to know the ceiling. Dixon has been dancing on the ceiling for nearly 20 years. What is his floor?

We are used to him being in the top three or four of the championship with a handful of victories, but it has been a while since we have seen Dixon risk going winless. IndyCar was completely different when Dixon did not reach victory lane in 2004. Last year was a bad year for Dixon and he still had a victory and five podium finishes. He was fourth in the championship. Ninety-percent of IndyCar would have died for Dixon's 2021 season, and yet for Dixon, it was one of his worst seasons. 

 

The man will turn 42 years old this July. We know Dixon will not be around forever. The greatest all experience a drop off. A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti each had it. Johnny Rutherford, Al Unser and Gordon Johncock each hung around, no longer great threats for victories, but could pull out impressive results with little left on the tank late in their careers. Dixon's teammate Jimmie Johnson experienced it in NASCAR. 

None of us want to see Dixon end his career with four or five winless seasons and him drop from a championship contender to unable to make it into the championship top ten. We all fear that day coming for Dixon.

It is hard to classify last year as a down year, but for Dixon, I am using the rule of three approach. One bad season is happenstance, two bad seasons is a coincidence, three bad seasons is a pattern. Until Dixon has three consecutive bad seasons, we cannot say he is done. 

What is realistic for this season? It is Scott Dixon. A championship with six victories wouldn't be surprising. He is going to be there. 

Álex Palou - #10 NTT Data Honda

Palou could not have made a better first impression at Chip Ganassi Racing: A victory! With a proper set up and great tire management, the Spaniard led 56 of 90 laps at Barber Motorsports Park. He had a hangover at St. Petersburg and finished 17th, but he recovered with a pair of top ten finishes at Texas. 

At Indianapolis, he opened with a third on the road course and was a notable challenger to Romain Grosjean for the race lead. He qualified sixth for the Indianapolis 500 and spent nearly the entire race in the top five. Palou led 35 laps and was leading with two laps to go before Hélio Castroneves took the lead entering turn one. Palou was unable to counter, but he was second in his second Indianapolis 500 start, and that gave him back the championship lead.

The first Belle Isle race saw Palou serve a six-spot grid penalty for an unapproved engine change, and his qualifying effort didn't help. A 21st became 25th on the grid and all he could manage was 15th in the race. He responded with a third in the second race. Palou had an outstanding debut weekend at Road America in 2020 with a third and a ninth in what were the third and fourth races of his IndyCar career. He was at the front again in 2021, and he kept Josef Newgarden honest, but it looked like Newgarden would get the victory. The late caution and ensuing restart put Palou in position, but he would have to be precise to get the lead. However, Newgarden's gearbox let him down and Palou zoomed to the lead like it was nothing. A victory fell into his lap and so did the championship lead. 

Palou was not making any errors. He was third at Mid-Ohio and seventh in Nashville. No one was as consistent as he was and clinching the championship early was likely. He was in the top five of the August IMS road course race when his engine failed. That led to another grid penalty, this time nine position at Gateway. He started 21st and was caught in the VeeKay incident. He lost the championship lead. 

Playing from behind, Palou won pole position at Portland... and then missed the chicane at Portland in lap one. He was shuffled back, but topping off for fuel under that extended first caution meant the team could be a little more aggressive. Palou made up positions, but the cautions also fell his way. The race cycled Palou to the lead and he took his third victory of the season, handing him the championship for the fourth time. 

He would not slip up in the final two races. An incredible drive saw him second in Laguna Seca. He had a healthy margin for error at Long Beach, but still finished fourth, sealing him his first IndyCar championship. 

Numbers to Remember:

3: Palou's championship in 2021 made it the third time Chip Ganassi Racing has won consecutive IndyCar championships.

4: Each of Ganassi's previous two consecutive championship streaks lasted for four seasons (1996-99 and 2008-11)

7.3125: Average finish in 2021, second in IndyCar.

1: Palou was first in the championship, podium finishes, top five finishes, fastest laps and he was tied for first in victories, races led, Fast Six appearances and Fast 12 appearances last season.

What does a championship season look like for him?

We just saw it!

Win the season opener, bad second race, top five finish, pair of top ten finishes, pair of podium finishes, laps led in the Indianapolis 500, bad race, podium finish, victory at Road America after Josef Newgarden has a gearbox failure while leading with two laps to go, another podium finish, another top ten finish, engine failure while running in the top ten, taken out early at Gateway, surprise comeback victory at Portland, podium finish at Laguna Seca. 

We know what Palou's championship season looks like.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

There might have been some tough results for Palou in 2021, but there weren't many bad races. He didn't make any mistakes. He really didn't make many mistakes as a rookie with Dale Coyne Racing either. I don't see Palou having hiccups in 2022. If he is not going to beat himself, Palou is going to be in the championship battle again.

 

If it wasn't for the engine failure at Indianapolis in August and Rinus VeeKay having a brain fade, Palou would have likely clinched the championship a race early. He was that good. Now, if it wasn't for Newgarden's gearbox issue at Road America, the championship would have gone to the wire and Newgarden would have been more of a threat. A few strikes went against Palou, but he also had a few breaks. 

After winning a championship in a sophomore season, it is more likely to see a decline than the ascension continuing, but for Palou, I don't see him falling far. He is going to be in the top five of the championship. He could fall to sixth or seventh if Andretti Autosport and Team Penske are clicking at their highest levels, but Palou is going to be a threat. He is going to win multiple races. He will not go unnoticed. 

Jimmie Johnson - #48 Carvana Honda

After over 20 years in stock car racing, Johnson's open-wheel switch was highly anticipated when IndyCar rolled into Barber Motorsports Park. There were many growing pains. 

Johnson spun 11 laps into Barber and ended up 19th, three laps down. He had two incidents at St. Petersburg, finishing 22nd, five laps down. Things were better on the IMS road course in May, but he struggled with pace and was 24th, one lap down. Throttle issues ended his first Belle Isle race early and a spin late in the second race played significantly into the outcome of that race. For Johnson, his spin did not change much, other than settle that he would finish 21st. 

The spins became less frequent as the year went along. Johnson was finishing races but wasn't putting together a complete race. He was 22nd at both Road America and Mid-Ohio. He was collateral damage in the Simon Pagenaud/Will Power accident at Nashville, but things ended on the right note.

Returning to the IMS road course, he was 19th and finished on the lead lap for the first time. He was 20th and on the lead lap at Portland. Laguna Seca was better. He was a lap down, but he was 17th, his best finish. He ended his IndyCar rookie season with another 17th-place finish at Long Beach, but this time on the lead lap.

Numbers to Remember:

646: Oval starts in the NASCAR Cup Series.

12.693: Winning percentage in NASCAR Cup Series oval starts.

874: Combined IndyCar oval starts between the other 23 full-time IndyCar drivers.

2: Of those 23 full-time drivers have made more than 100 IndyCar oval starts (Hélio Castroneves 194, Scott Dixon 172)

10: Of those 23 full-time drivers have made 15 IndyCar oval starts or fewer.

17,056: Days old on May 29, 2022, the day of the Indianapolis 500. If Johnson wins that day, he would tie Gordon Johncock for the sixth oldest IndyCar race winner.

What does a championship season look like for him?

A championship season for Johnson is based on strong oval results, and likely winning all of the oval races. If he wins all five oval races, with maximum points, he would have 328 points. Palou scored 549 points on his way to be champion last year, averaging 34.3125 points per start. Multiple that to a 17-race season, the total would be 583 points.

Based on a 17-race season, Johnson would need 255 points from his 12 road/street course starts, or averaging 21.25 points per race, or needing to average a finish of 9.75 or better. He would need to be bouncing between ninth and tenth for those 12 races with any finishes of 11th or 12th counterbalanced with finishes of seventh or eighth.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

I think Johnson could win an oval race. I am not saying it will happen, but I think he could find comfort on ovals. If the pace is there, and if he doesn't face any adversity, he could win. 

The problem is Johnson's opening oval weekend at Texas comes when his attention will be split with the 12 Hours of Sebring, and Texas could dictate how his oval results play out for the entire season. If he struggles getting a grip there, a track he has raced at plenty of times, it could stunt him for the remaining oval races. We already know how leery he has been about doing oval races. Going from Texas to Indianapolis is not the ideal 1-2 punch for adapting to IndyCar oval races. A rough Texas weekend could linger in his mind at Indianapolis. A strong Texas weekend could inject all the confidence in the world heading into the biggest race of the season. 

 

Indianapolis will be his toughest track mentally. He has won there in NASCAR, and Johnson is  one of the best NASCAR drivers ever at Indianapolis. There will be many competing things in his mind. His legacy at that track, the intra-Ganassi battle, the biggest race in the world and digesting it all at 230 mph.  

Iowa and Gateway will be interesting. Iowa is known for high tire wear, something Johnson has experienced, but these will be different tracks for him. I think he could figure these places out quickly. He will have two distinct seasons. A win might be a lot to expect for his first IndyCar season on ovals, but multiple top ten finishes is not crazy, and neither would be a top five finish. 

As for his road/street course output, Johnson was improving over the course of the season. Results got significantly better late in the season. Many of those tracks he tested at, notably Portland and Laguna Seca. His second race on the IMS road course was better than his first. His results still might not be spectacular, but I think he will be in the top fifteen multiple times after his best finish in 2021 was 17th. 

Better road/street course results paired with solid oval finishes could get him a top twenty championship finish.

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.