2023 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

This year marks the 75th NASCAR Cup Series season. Thirty-five drivers have won a Cup Series championship. Seven enter the 2023 season looking to add another to their total. The rest are gunning to become the 36th different champion when this 36-race season is over.

For the 42nd consecutive season, the Daytona 500 opens the calendar before Fontana hosts its final round on the two-mile oval before the multi-year short track conversion begins. Las Vegas and Phoenix start March with a trip to Atlanta ending the winter portion of the calendar. Circuit of the Americas starts spring and ends March. 

The first short track race of the season will be at Richmond, the week before the Bristol dirt race is held on Easter night. Martinsville makes its a hat trick of short track events before Talladega, marking the tenth race of the season. 

Dover, Kansas and Darlington round out the first half of the regular season with the NASCAR All-Star Race taking place on May 21 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, the first time the Cup Series has run on the 0.625-mile oval since 1996, marking the midway point in the regular season. The Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte will be the following Sunday ahead of Gateway and Sonoma. After Sonoma, the Cup Series takes its one midseason off-week on the weekend of June 18.

Summer begins with a night race at Nashville on June 25. The following weekend will be the inaugural Chicago street course race with a 5:30 p.m. ET start. Atlanta makes it three consecutive twilight-to-night events that following Sunday. Loudon is race #20 on July 16 with Pocono and Richmond closing out the month of July.

Michigan's lone date is on August 6 before consecutive road course races at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. The regular season finale will be August 26 at Daytona, one of two scheduled Saturday night races.

The Southern 500 from Darlington opens the playoffs on September 3 with Kansas and the Saturday night Bristol race filling out round one. Texas Motor Speedway's only race will be the first race of the round of 12 on September 24. Talladega will be the following week with the Charlotte roval deciding the drivers moving onto the semifinal round. 

Las Vegas hosts the Cup Series on October 15, a week before Homestead with the penultimate race of the season being at Martinsville on October 29. For the fourth consecutive season, Phoenix hosts the season finale with the championship to be decided on November 5.

We know the dates and the order of the races. What does the grid look like for the 2023 season, and how does the field stack up in terms of playoff hopes? Last season saw a record-tying 19 different winners in a Cup season. Fifteen playoff spots were claimed by race winners leaving only one spot to a driver on points. It should remain contentious to see who fills out the 16-driver playoff field.

Chartered Teams

Ross Chastain - #1 AdventHealth/Moose Fraternity/Worldwide Express/Kubota/Jockey Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2022 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: After a breakout season in 2022 that saw Chastain wind up second in the championship, the playoffs are a minimum for the 2023 season. Anything less would be a stunning reverse of fortune. He is more than aggressive enough to win races and consistent enough to finish well in points. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Chastain won at Austin and Talladega last year, but he showed he could win anywhere with runner-up finishes in Phoenix, Atlanta and Homestead and other top five results at Martinsville, Las Vegas, Dover, Nashville and Road America. 

Austin Cindric - #2 Menards/Discount Tires Ford

Team: Team Penske
2022 Championship Finish: 12th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Cindric was the surprise Daytona 500 winner and we thought it would set up a multi-victory season for the rookie, but Cindic did not find the same success on the road courses where many figured he would shine. Cindric found good form at the end of the season. He should improve on his results in 2023, but it should be noted Cindric ended the 2022 regular season 14th in points. Without that victory he would not have made the playoffs. He could be living on the bubble again this season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There are five regular season road course races. Cindric cannot be shutout two consecutive years. 

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/BioEthanol Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Making the playoffs off the back of a victory in the summer Daytona race after the entire field was wiped out in an accident, Dillon caught a break in 2022. He is rarely a top five regular, but he can piece together top ten finishes. His playoff hopes could come down to the number of regular season winners. A lower number could be in Dillon's favor. A higher number could knock him out, unless Dillon is a winner himself.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Dillon ran well last year at Fontana and he also had a good day at Homestead. If the surface is worn out, he appears to be in a comfort zone, and he does well at Richmond as well.

Kevin Harvick - #4 Busch/SunnyD/Hunt Brothers Pizza/GearWrench/Rheem Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2007)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Entering his final NASCAR Cup Series season, Harvick will look to make the playoffs for a 14th consecutive season. Last year was his worst championship finish since 2009, but poor first round playoff results were not of his making as the car let him down. Harvick will close his career on a high note. The playoffs are a certain, how far he goes is fluid, but it will not be without a lack of effort.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. It is Kevin Harvick. But he has yet to win at Austin, the Bristol dirt race, the Charlotte roval, the IMS road course and Nashville. Granted, three of those tracks he has only raced at twice. He hasn't won a road course race since Sonoma 2017. Keep that in mind. 

Kyle Larson - #5 HendrickCars.com/Valvoline Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: After winning the 2021 championship, Larson's 2022 season was likely not going to match that level. Larson took that step back, but perhaps further than anticipated. Still, Larson was in the picture into to autumn and that should be the case again with a championship four spot highly likely.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. It is Kyle Larson. It does feel like third time should be the charm for him at the Bristol dirt race.

Brad Keselowski - #6 Castrol/Violet Defense/Solomon Plumbing/King's Hawaiian Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Moving to his own team, Keselowski's 2022 season was a humbling experience and a 100-point penalty didn't help his efforts. However, RFK Racing turned a page late in 2022. If Keselowski can rediscover his form, he can take a playoff spot, and the team was trending in the right direction at the end of last season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: RFK Racing did have good performances at the plate races last year, places where Keselowski has been good before. 

Corey LaJoie - #7 Celsius/Schluter Systems/Jessie Rees Foundation Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: LaJoie was outside the top 30 last year, which meant even if he won a race he still wouldn't qualify for the playoffs. NASCAR has removed the top 30 requirement for a playoff contender, increasing LaJoie's still low chances of making it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: LaJoie was knocking on the door at both Atlanta races last year. Throw in both Daytona races and Talladega and there are his five opportunities to make the playoffs. 

Kyle Busch - #8 3CHI/Cheddars/Alsco/BettMGM/Lenovo/Netspend Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: The big driver change of the offseason is Busch leaving Joe Gibbs Racing after 15 years of success. The last few seasons have been underwhelming in the grand scheme of Busch's career and he has only won one race in two of the last three seasons. However, it only takes one victory to make the playoffs. Even if Busch doesn't do that his form should be strong enough to make it on points provided there is not more than a dozen winners.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch can win anywhere, but in recent seasons he has not shown to be excellent anywhere. Busch's road course past is better than most and RCR did win two road course races last year.

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Hooters/Llumar/Kelley Blue Book/UniFirst Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Elliott was the best driver over the entire 2022 season, and clinched the regular season championship with ease. However, Elliott could not continue that output in the playoffs. Elliott will be fine making the playoffs. He should win multiple times in the first 26 events. It is the final ten races that are his greatest concern.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Road courses, plate races, Dover, basically the entire calendar. It is setting up for Elliott to take the inaugural Chicago street course and only adding to his repertoire. 

Aric Almirola - #10 Smithfield Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 5th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: With one foot into retirement, Almirola leaped back into a full-time return for the 2023 season. Almirola can have a sneaky day. We saw it in 2021 at Loudon, but that is likely his best bet at making the playoffs. Stewart-Haas Racing has struggled seeing consistent results out of any of its cars the last few seasons. It feels unlikely Almirola can be top ten on points and take a playoff spot that way.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Almirola has at least seven top ten finishes at five tracks, Talladega, Richmond, Kansas, Phoenix and Martinsville. 

Denny Hamlin - #11 FedEx Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Hamlin had a terrible regular season in 2022, but two victories erased the other 24 results. Labeled as the most dangerous 22nd-place team in NASCAR, Hamlin did make a championship four push and was set to have a chance at the title until the most daring move in NASCAR history from Chastain. Hamlin's 2022 regular season results are concerning, but he should be better this year and still be winning races.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hamlin does lead all active drivers in Daytona 500 victories. He runs well in his home state of Virginia and there are four races there, three in the regular season. 

Ryan Blaney - #12 Menards/Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmor/Wurth/Discount Tire Ford

Team: Team Penske
2022 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: The lone 2022 playoff driver without a victory, Blaney had a great season, but just couldn't come out on top. That likely will not happen again. Even if it does, what are the odds of 15 playoff spots being claimed via victory again? Blaney should be set either way.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Blaney had three top five finishes on short tracks last year and six top five finishes on ovals under a mile and a half in length. 

Chase Briscoe - #14 Mahindra Ag North America/High Point/Rush Truck Centers Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Briscoe started 2022 strong then had about 20 lackluster races before sneaking his way into the semifinal round and having a shot at the championship four. At his best, Briscoe feels certain for a playoff spot, but what most of 2022 shows us is a driver who could come up short. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Phoenix, for starters, but he has run well at the Bristol dirt race and his road course form is respectable. 

Riley Herbst - #15 SunnyD Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2022 Championship Finish: N/A (10th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Herbst will return to NASCAR Grand National Series to run full-time with Stewart-Haas Racing. Herbst will also run at Talladega in April. J.J. Yeley will drive this car at some point this season, and Todd Gilliland will compete in five races in this car when Zane Smith is in the #38 Ford for Front Row Motorsports. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: A division lower than the Cup Series.

A.J. Allmendinger - #16 Action Industries/Nutrien Ag Solutions/Celsius Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (5th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2009, 2017)

2023 Playoff Prospects: With newfound confidence after a handful of successful seasons in NASCAR's second division, Allmendinger is back in the Cup Series full-time. As a part-time Cup driver, Allmendinger won at Indianapolis. He should win at least one road course race, but Allmendinger is a better driver everywhere. He should get Kaulig Racing its first playoff participant. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: All the road courses. However, he also had top ten finishes at Gateway, Bristol, Las Vegas and Homestead last year in Cup, and Allmendinger has won at Las Vegas, Michigan, Bristol and Talladega in the Grand National Series.

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol/Violet Defense Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: It wasn't just Keselowski that struggled for RFK in 2022. Buescher had one good day at Sonoma, but never really looked like a playoff driver. He won at Bristol in the playoffs after a brilliant race. If RFK can time its best races right, Buescher could find himself in the playoffs, but it still feels like a stretch.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Either a short track or a road course.

Martin Truex, Jr. - #19 Bass Pro Shops/Auto Owners Insurance/Reser's Fine Foods/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Truex, Jr. was in the top five in points at the end of the regular season, but without a victory and with 15 winners and Blaney ahead of him, Truex missed the playoffs. Truex probably should have won four regular season races last year. This team will not let that many results slip through its fingers. He will be back and he can go far.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Prior to last season, Truex was on a run winning at short tracks. His road course form took a dip last year.

Christopher Bell - #20 DeWalt/Rheem/SiriusXM/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 16th (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: If it wasn't for Chastain, Bell likely would have been the breakout driver of the season, also making the championship four, but winning three races, including in two must-win situations in the playoffs. Bell should make it back in the field of 16. He is a championship sleeper to many.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bell's four Cup victories have been on two rovals (Daytona and Charlotte) and two low-banked racetracks (Loudon and Martinsville). But he also had top five runs at Austin, Dover, Kansas, Charlotte, Pocono, Richmond, Darlington, Kansas and Bristol last year. 

Harrison Burton - #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane/Menards Ford

Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 27th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Burton had two top ten finishes all season in 2022. He finished outside the top 25 in a third of the races and outside the top twenty in 22 of 36 races. He needs to make a massive improvement to be a playoff driver or just have won fortunate day where he finishes first, other 25 races be damned. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Uh... until further notice he is a plate race or bust driver.

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford

Team: Team Penske
2022 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Logano's worst form is far better than most driver's best form. The playoffs are not a question of if he qualifies, but when he qualifies and how far does he go. For Logano, this season is about becoming the first driver in a over a decade to successfully defend a title. He is more than capable of doing it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Since 2018, the only tracks Logano has won at multiple times are Las Vegas and Phoenix. However, he has also won the inaugural races on the Bristol dirt track and Gateway. There is an inaugural Chicago street course race this season. Maybe we pencil him in for that.

Bubba Wallace - #23 Door Dash/McDonald's/Columbia/Roo Insurance/MoneyLion Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018, 2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Coming off his best championship finish, Wallace has high expectations for this season. A playoff spot appears to be the minimum in the eyes of many. He looked better on all tracks last year and picked up his second career victory at Kansas in September. Pit lane errors did set this team back and cost it results. Wallace could be on the cusp of making it on points and a victory would be the best way to assure himself a playoff spot.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Wallace finally got top five finishes elsewhere then ovals 2.5 miles or greater in length in 2022. He won at Kansas and very well could have swept those races. He did great at Nashville and Michigan.

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Valvoline/Liberty Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Byron started the 2022 season looking like the man to beat but then had only one top ten finish in the final 18 regular season races and he went 20 races between top five finishes. He is more than capable making the playoffs, but it still isn't clear what William Byron we will get over an entire season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Byron's top five finishes last year were Las Vegas, Atlanta, Richmond, Martinsville and Bristol. 

Justin Haley - #31 LeafFilter Gutter Protection/Celsius/Cirkul Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Perhaps the most overlooked driver in the 2022 season, Haley only had four top ten finishes all season, but three of those were top five results. It feels like Haley will be a playoff outside on finishes alone. A second career Cup victory in 2023 would not shock anybody, but it is not something anyone is expecting.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Haley had a great run at Volusia Speedway Park in dirt modifieds last week. Keep an eye on him at the Bristol dirt race, but remember how great he is at plate races and he isn't bad on road courses either. 

Michael McDowell - #34 Love's Travel Stops Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: McDowell had his best season in Cup competition, even better than 2021 where he won the Daytona 500 and made the playoffs. He had 12 top ten finishes, however, only two of those were top five results. He also had nine finishes outside the top 25. It is still win-or-bust for his playoff chances.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta and I guess the road courses.

Todd Gilliland - #38 Speedy Cash/Black's Tire & Auto/Georgia Peanut Commission/Boot Barn Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 28th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 33rd (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Slimmer than most as it was announced Zane Smith will drive the #38 Ford in six races this season in place of Gilliland. If Gilliland does not attempt all the regular season races he will not be eligible for the playoffs. With Gilliland taking over the #15 Ford for five of the races Smith will drive this car, all Gilliland need is to find a ride for Talladega in April to remain eligible. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gilliland is quite good on road courses and we saw him finish fourth in the messy race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course last season. Combined with Front Row Motorsports' "plate race or bust" mentality, and Atlanta now being another plate race, he should have a handful of days where he has a shot. 

Ryan Preece - #41 Haas Automation/United Rentals Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (18th in NASCAR Truck Series) 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: After spending 2022 bouncing around part-time rides in the lower two divisions, and winning in the Truck Series, Preece is back in a full-time Cup seat. Stewart-Haas Racing is a big step up from JTG Daugherty Racing's second car, but Preece must show he can be a consistent driver. He has been good for a smattering of top ten finishes here and there, but has yet to do it on a regular basis. This should be his best championship finish in his Cup career, but it could still be well short of a playoff spot.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The only tracks where Preece has multiple top ten finishes in the Cup Series are Daytona (three, including two in the Daytona 500) and Talladega. However, his short oval form should be better this season.

Noah Gragson - #42 Sunseeker Resorts Chevrolet

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2nd in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 31st (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: The little hell-raiser has moved to the Cup Series. In four full-time seasons at NASCAR's second level, Gragson showed tremendous skill and pace, but could also shoot all of his toes off multiple times in a season. It is hard to remember a driver with that much aggression at a lower level that came in and immediately set the Cup Series on fire. It normally backfires on that driver. He could steal a victory, but it is difficult to imagine Gragson having the consistency to be a playoff driver.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gragson was good on the rough surfaces of Darlington and Homestead in the Grand National Series, and he also has done well at Martinsville running in the lower levels.

Erik Jones - #43 Allegiant Chevrolet

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2022 Championship Finish: 18th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Jones had a sprinkling of impressive runs throughout the 2022 season. There just weren't enough to be a serious playoff threat and the number of winners didn't help. His Southern 500 victory came one race too late for him to make the playoffs, but if he builds off those results in 2023, Jones can take one of the final playoff positions.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington! Jones is great at Darlington. He has a good track record at Talladega and his Fontana form is worth keeping an eye on.

Tyler Reddick - #45 Monster Energy/McDonald's/SiriusXM/MoneyLion Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2017)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Any driver that can win three times with Richard Childress Racing likely should be a playoff driver anywhere else. Reddick will test that theory at 23XI Racing. Reddick proved he could win races last year. 23XI proved it could win races last year. This pairing should get in the playoffs and could be the surprising championship four participant this year. The schedule lines up right for Reddick.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Reddick has only won three times, and twice on road courses, but he feels like a borderline anywhere guy. He should have won at Fontana last year. He should have won the Bristol dirt race last year. Homestead could be the race that puts him in the championship four this year. He could sweep Darlington and no one would be stunned.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 Kroger Chevrolet

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2014)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Stenhouse did have a run of four consecutive top ten finishes last year. The problem is he had finished outside the top 25 in the seven races prior to that stretch and then he didn't have another top ten result in any of the final 22 races. His only hope of the playoffs is one of these flukey one-off races, a plate race or the Bristol dirt race. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta, Bristol dirt.

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Bowman looked like Hendrick Motorsports' best driver through the first 14 races, the he fell off a cliff only for a concussion at Texas to end his playoff run, forcing him out of the car for five races. He is good enough to take a playoff spot, but it has yet to be seen if he is good enough to do anything with it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bowman's seven career Cup victories have come on six different track sizes. And yet, he hasn't won on a road course, where he has some impressive performances.

Cody Ware - #51 Biohaven Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 32nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 17th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Along with Corey LaJoie, Ware's playoff hopes increased exponentially now that the top 30 requirement has been removed for playoff qualification. However, Ware's best hope is the entire field being taken out in an accident due to a rainstorm. His only top ten finish was sixth in that summer Daytona race. He was outside the top 25 in 27 races and outside the top 30 in 15 of those. His playoff hopes are still microscopic. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona and Talladega. I am not even going to include Atlanta. 

Ty Gibbs - #54 Interstate Batteries/Monster Energy Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2022 NASCAR Grand National Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Gibbs had an impressive two seasons in NASCAR's second division. But, like Gragson, Gibbs brings a hot-headedness that could make for difficult days at the Cup level. The talent is there and the team is there for Gibbs to make it, but at 20 years old maturity will be the greatest deciding factor into whether or not he makes it. Then again, all it takes is one victory to paper over immature mistakes.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gibbs' best days in the second division were on road courses. As a Cup rookie, those are his best places for victory. 

Ty Dillon - #77 Ferris Mowers Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Dillon's best championship finish is 24th. He has slid from Germain Racing to a few races with Gaunt Brothers Racing to Petty GMS Racing to Spire Motorsports. His Cup career is not heading in the right direction. His hope is to steal a plate race or be in the right place when a rainstorm passes over a track.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta, and maybe Bristol dirt. Dillon has also been good in the wet on road courses. Any wet race and he could be a surprise.

B.J. McLeod - #78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet

Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (57th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: McLeod will run most of the races in the #78 Chevrolet, but he will split this car with at least Josh Bilicki, meaning McLeod will not be playoff eligible. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Like Ware, Daytona and Talladega.

Daniel Suárez - #99 CommScope/Freeway Insurance/Worldwide Express/Jockey/Kubota Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2022 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 18th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Suárez picked up a popular first career victory last year at Sonoma, and he was a regular at the front over the summer. However, despite those results, Suárez never ranked higher than 12th in points during the 2022 season. If he is living on the bubble, he could find himself on the wrong side of the cutline if his results are slightly off.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Suárez has three top five finishes at Watkins Glen. His Pocono record is also good.

Non-Chartered Teams

Chandler Smith - #13 Quick Tie Products Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2022 Championship Finish: N/A (3rd in NASCAR Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Smith will move up to the NASCAR Grand National Series to drive for Kaulig Racing.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Along with the second series program, Smith will also attempt Austin, the autumn Talladega race and the Phoenix finale in the Cup Series. 

Zane Smith - #36 Centene/Ambetter Heath Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: N/A (2022 NASCAR Truck Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Smith will defend his Truck Series championship while running part-time in the NASCAR Cup and Grand National Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In the Truck series, but he will drive the #38 Front Row Motorsports Ford at Phoenix in March, Talladega in April, Sonoma, Texas and the Charlotte roval in place of Todd Gilliland. 

Conor Daly - #50 BitNile Chevrolet

Team: The Money Team Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 40th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Daly will run full-time in the NTT IndyCar Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daly plans on running a handful of Cup races this season. His only announced appearances at the moment are Daytona, Austin and Indianapolis. I would rank Indianapolis as his best chance for victory.

Austin Hill - #62 Beard Oil Chevrolet

Team: Beard Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (6th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Hill will return to the NASCAR Grand National Series driving for Richard Childress Racing full-time.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hill will run six races for Beard Motorsports in 2023, both Daytona races, both Talladega races, Chicago and Michigan.

Travis Pastrana - #67 Black Rifle Coffee Company Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2021 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.
2023 Playoff Prospects: Pastrana will look to make his NASCAR Cup Series debut. He last competed in a NASCAR national series in September 2020 at Las Vegas. His last start in NASCAR's second division was in 2013.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Daytona 500 is Pastrana's only announced attempt this season.

Jimmie Johnson - #84 Carvana Chevrolet

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2022 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2006, 2013)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Johnson returns to NASCAR Cup Series competition in a part-time role. His total number of races has yet to be determined.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: At the moment, the only races we know Johnson will attempt are Daytona and Chicago.

Playoff Driver Predictions

1. Denny Hamlin

2. Kyle Larson

3. Martin Truex, Jr. 

4. Joey Logano

5. Tyler Reddick

6. Kevin Harvick

7. Chase Elliott

8. Kyle Busch

9. Christopher Bell

10. Ryan Blaney

11. Ross Chastain

12. A.J. Allmendinger

13. William Byron

14. Austin Cindric

15. Alex Bowman

16. Bubba Wallace

Daytona 500 qualifying takes place tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. The front row for the Daytona 500 will be decided while the fastest two non-chartered entries will lock-in their spots for Sunday's race. The first Daytona 500 qualifying race will be run at 7:00 p.m. ET on Thursday February 16 with the second race following at 8:45 p.m. ET. There will be one 50-minute practice for the Cup teams at 5:35 p.m. ET on Friday February 17 before a final 50-minute practice at 10:30 a.m. on Saturday February 18.

The 65th running of the Daytona 500 is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday February 19.

Musings From the Weekend: 2023 Possible NASCAR Achievements

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Kansas City Cheifs won the Super Bowl. There was Jaguar-on-Jaguar violence in Hydrabad. Formula E announced its own development series, because we do not have enough development series in motorsports. The Asian Le Mans Series opened and American drivers did well. There was an American winner in New Zealander and she made history. Katherine Legge has herself an Indianapolis 500 entry. The Andretti Formula One program continues to be stuck in limbo. MotoGP has been testing, it rained, and Marc Márquez is not pleased. Kyle Busch might want to check his luggage more closely next time he travels. But NASCAR season is upon us and that is on my mind...

2023 Possible NASCAR Achievements

The NASCAR Cup Series season is less than a week away... or it started last week. Do we really consider the season as started when exhibition events commence? Do we consider it baseball season when all the teams are playing in the Cactus League or Grapefruit League? No, we don't, so the NASCAR Cup season is upon. 

Drivers have switched teams. Race distances are changing. There will be a street course. It is a new season and after a record-tying 19 different drivers won a race in 2022, plenty of history can be made in 2023. I am not sure anyone saw 19 different winners coming when the 2022 season began, but it happened and it is important to prepare for what you could ahead of the new season. 

What records could be broken? What milestones could be reached? Let's look at a few. 

Hendrick Motorsports: 300 NASCAR Cup Series Victories

Already the most successful team in NASCAR Cup Series history, Hendrick Motorsports explores new ground with every race it wins, but nine more victories would have it reach the 300-victory milestone.  

It was only two seasons ago it surpassed Petty Enterprises for most victories when Kyle Larson scored victory 269 in the Coca-Cola 600. That was the team's sixth victory that season and in the 57 races since Hendrick Motorsports has won 22 more times, a solid 0.3859 batting average. 

After the last two seasons, nine victories feels almost certain, but from 2016 to 2020 it never won more than seven races in a season. At worst, it feels like Hendrick will at least come close to 300 if doesn't completely reach it. Ending the year on 299 wouldn't be a bad things heading into 2024, but with the lineup of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowamn, it feels almost foolish to think this group will win fewer than nine races. 

The earliest Hendrick could reach the milestone is by sweeping the first nine races and it coming at Martinsville, fittingly the location of Hendrick's first victory 39 years ago. Nine wins on the spin would be a fairy tale start for the organization, but that likely will not happen. 

In 2021, it took 18 races for Hendrick to reach nine victories. Last year, it took 25 races. In the previous four seasons Hendrick won at least nine races (2012-2015), it reached nine victories in races 34, 34, 23 and 35. That averages out to the ninth victory coming at 28.16667 races. That would be between the Kansas and Bristol playoff races.

Prepare for this to be something reached around autumn if it is reached at all in 2023.

Kevin Harvick: 800 NASCAR Cup Series Starts

This will be Kevin Harvick's final season in the Cup Series. At least that is what he announced. If this is it, Harvick could leave his mark on the NASCAR record book. Starting with starts. 

Entering this season, Harvick has 790 starts. Barring some incident, he will likely become the tenth driver to reach 800 starts. An exclusive club, but he could finish the season eighth all-time in this category. Jeff Gordon is ninth on 805 and Darrell Waltrip is eighth on 809. 

Twenty starts and Harvick will be eighth. If he starts all 36 races, he will end on 826 starts, two behind Bill Elliott for seventh and three behind Kyle Petty for sixth. 

Harvick: Second Most Times Running at the Finish

Taking the checkered flag has definitely becoming a 21st century thing. Parts are more reliable. Cars are more durable. This is a statistic that skews to the contemporary period, but a driver still has to get there, and even compared to his fellow drivers, Harvick is one of the best. 

He is currently third in this category, having finished 743 of his 790 starts. Mark Martin is second on 761. It will only take seeing the checkered flag in 19 of 36 races for Harvick to move into second, only behind Richard Petty's 835 times running at the finish. 

Based on Harvick's 94.05% rate of running at the finish, he is on track to at least see the checkered flag in 33 races. If he does that, he would end his career with 776 times running at the finish. 

Harvick: Third All-Time in Top Ten Finishes

We have one more for Harvick, three for Harvick on his way out. Top ten finishes are a little more universal. Everyone loves a top ten. David Letterman. Sportscenter. Your grandmother understands what making a top ten means.

Harvick is currently fifth all-time on 430. He is 16 behind Bobby Allison and 23 behind Mark Martin. This one could be close. Harvick has had at least 17 top the finishes in ten consecutive seasons, but last year he had just 17. In that stretch, he had 24 or more top ten finishes six times, including in four consecutive seasons from 2018 to 2021. 

Allison feels plausible. Martin will be a stretch but not impossible. This is another category where Richard Petty is safe on 712 top ten finishes and Jeff Gordon is safe from Harvick as Gordon has 477.

Kyle Busch: 20,000 Laps Led

Moving to a new team, Kyle Busch will look to increase on his laps led total with Richard Childress Racing. Busch already ranks tenth all-time and Jimmie Johnson is only 33 laps away in ninth. Busch is 1,092 laps away from the 20,000 laps led milestone. If he reaches it, he will become the eighth driver to reach the mark and pass Rusty Wallace also in the process.

There was a time when this would be a guarantee to happen this season, but Busch has not been out front in as many races over the last few seasons. From 2008 to 2019, Busch led at least 1,100 laps in ten of 12 seasons. In the previous three seasons, Busch has led 516, 334 and 627 laps respectively. Those 1,477 laps led in the last three seasons is 105 laps fewer than what Busch led in 2019. 

This feels like a stretch. Johnson he should surpass. Wallace is 1,043 laps ahead of Busch. If he gets Wallace, he will likely get 20,000 laps as well. Also not in Busch's favor is Richard Childress Racing has not had a driver lead over 1,000 laps in a season since Dale Earnhardt in 1995. Last year, Tyler Riddick's 503 laps led were the most for a Childress driver since Kevin Harvick led 269 in 2013. 

This could be an uphill battle for Busch. 

Busch: 60 Runner-Up Finishes

Nobody likes to finish second, but second is still good. It is better than third and doubly better than fourth. It beats the crap out of 20th, and no one can brag about finishing 40th. Great drivers win races, but great drivers also finish second. 

Richard Petty won more races than anyone else in NASCAR Cup Series competition. Well, Petty also finished second more than anyone else in NASCAR Cup Series competition. It goes both ways.

Busch is only one second-place result away from his 60th, which would make him the eighth driver to reach it. It would break a tie with Cale Yarborough. Nobody wants to be known as the guy who finished second a lot in the season (see Kasey Kahne), but Busch could surpass Mark Martin for seventh most runner-up finishes with three this season and Kevin Harvick is currently the active leader with 62. 

Chase Elliott: Active Leader in Average Finish

Elliott is about to participate in his eighth full season in the Cup Series. He has never had fewer than ten top five finishes in a season and he has had at least 20 top ten finishes in five of his first seven seasons. His worst championship result is tenth and he has cracked the top five in four seasons. 

It has been a good opening stanza to the Georgian's career, good enough that he is currently ranked 24th all-time in average finish amongst drivers with more than 100 Cup starts. 

With an average finish of 13.043 he is ahead of Jimmie Johnson (13.12) and Denny Hamlin (13.192). Entering 2023, he is second amongst active drivers behind only Kevin Harvick at 12.699. Harvick will retire at the end of the season but there is a chance Elliott could be the top active driver before Harvick even hangs up his helmet. 

The strange thing is Elliott has never averaged a top ten finish in his Cup career. His best season was 11.4 in 2021. If Elliott was to average 10.0 over 36 races, his average finish would drop to 12.668, meaning Harvick would need to average a 11.972 in 2023 just to be level with Elliott to the third decimal point. This could be fun to watch. 

Kyle Larson: 300th NASCAR Cup Series Start

Hendrick Motorsports is closing in on 300 Cup victories. Larson is closing in on his 300th Cup start. Larson will almost definitely reach this milestone, and he will likely do it in the fifth race of the season at Atlanta. 

Larson is already 99th all-time in starts. He will become the 15th active driver with at least 300 Cup starts. If Larson starts all 36 races this year he will be up to 331 starts, moving him into 88th all-time.

Denny Hamlin: 35th Pole Position 

There is nothing all that special about 35 pole positions. It would only move Hamlin into a tie with Ned Jarrett for 20th all-time, which is still notable. There was a two-season stretch where qualifying was almost non-existent due to the pandemic. Surprisingly enough, Hamlin is the active leader in pole positions, at least among full-time drivers. Jimmie Johnson has 36 pole positions but will only be contesting a limited schedule in his return to Cup competition with his own team Legacy Motor Club. 

The only other drivers with 30 pole positions or more are Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. The only other driver with at least 20 pole positions is Joey Logano.

Kyle Busch or Joey Logano: Third NASCAR Cup Series Championship

A third championship doesn't sound like much, but it is a separation point in NASCAR Cup Series history. Only nine drivers have won at least three championships. Either Busch or Logano could become the tenth to reach that milestone. A third title coming in 2023 for either driver would make a fourth championship highly possible. 

How historic is a fourth championship? Well, only four drivers have reached that level. 

Richard Petty

Dale Earnhardt

Jimmie Johnson

Jeff Gordon 

That it's. That is the list. Becoming the fifth would put any driver in a special place in NASCAR history.

 

Champion From the Weekend

You know about the Kansas City Chiefs, but did you know...

Charles Wurz won the Formula Regional Oceania championship with finishes of fifth, third and first from Taupo Motorsports Park.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Charlie Wurz, but did you know...

Jean-Éric Vergne won the Hydrabad ePrix, his first Formula E victory in 31 starts. 

Ott Tänak won Rally Sweden.

Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Tampa, his first victory since the 2021 season finale at Salt Lake City.

The #25 Algarve Pro Racing Oreca-Gibson of James Allen, John Falb and Kyffin Simpson won the first Asian Le Mans Series race from Dubai. The #29 Ligier-Nissan of Jérôme de Sadeleer, Vyacheslav Gutak and Fabien Lavergne won in LMP3. The #34 Walkenhorst Motorsport BMW of Nicky Catsburg, Chandler Hull and Thomas Merrill won in GT.

The #43 Inter Europol Competition Oreca-Gibson of Nolan Siegel, Christian Bogle and Charles Crews won the second ALMS race from Dubai. The #5 DKR Engineering Duquesne-Nissan of Valentino Catalano and Tom van Rompuy won in LMP3. The #34 Walkenhorst Motorsport BMW of Catsburg, Hull and Merrill swept the GT races.

Callum Hedge and Chloe Chambers split the first two Formula Regional Oceania races from Taupo.

Coming Up This Weekend

The 65th Daytona 500

Supercross hopes second time is the charm to race in Oakland.

Asian Le Mans Series ends its season with a doubleheader at Yas Marina.

2023 IndyCar Team Preview: Juncos Hollinger Racing

Twenty-three days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series opener. This is the antepenultimate team preview. It is an expanding organization. After completing its first season with a full-time entry, Juncos Hollinger Racing will field two cars this season. JHR displayed impressive pace for a single-car organization that was still exploring unknown terrain as a full-time entrant. It hopes to make strides this year with a promising talent and with a driver who is completely unknown outside of his home country but hopes to turn some heads.

At First Glance... Has there ever been someone as unknown as Agustín Canapino to enter IndyCar?

Seriously? When was the last time a driver such as Canapino came into IndyCar and in a full-time ride nonetheless? 

For much of the last decade, new IndyCar drivers have come from the same avenues. The Road to Indy has been a healthy provider of talent. If drivers aren't coming from the domestic route, they are coming from Formula Two where their names are somewhat familiar. Some drivers had ties to Formula One programs, see Callum Ilott. Others were race winners but didn't have ties to a Formula One team. 

There have been a few exceptions. Other recent IndyCar debutants were a Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters race winners, a veteran of 179 Formula One grand prix starts, a seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and a Supercars champion.

Top drivers from across the globe have been coming to IndyCar for the last few seasons. Canapino is one of the top men from where he comes from. In Argentina, he is a four-time champion in Turismo Carretera, a stock car series. He has twice won the Súper TC2000 championship, a touring car series. The 33-year-old has done it all at home. Now, he moves onto a new challenge. 

America will not be new to Canapino. He made two IMSA starts back in 2019 when Juncos Racing dipped its toe into IMSA competition, but now he is here for the full season, sliding into a single-seater, something Canapino has never really done. He ran a pair of Fórmula 3 Sudamericana races back in 2011. Outside of that, he has been racing stock car and touring car for his entire career. 

We don't look south when it comes to motorsports. We look to Europe, the home of Formula One, Le Mans and more junior series than you can imagine. We look to Japan and Australia for something a little more exotic and thrilling. Throw in a language barrier, Argentina's selection of motorsports isn't close to even become niche in the American motorsports world. What Canapino has done mind as well have taken place on Neptune. That is how far it is from the American motorsports sphere. 

But truth be told there is excellent talent all around the globe. South America has not been the pipeline we are used to seeing for drivers. Brazil isn't producing the same quantity of IndyCar drivers that we saw 20 years ago. There was a burst of Colombians in the early 2010s, but Los Cafeteros have disappeared from the grid. That doesn't mean there are no great drivers in South America. There are, and Canapino will get his chance on a greater stage. 

As for how unexpected Canapino's participation is in the grand scheme of IndyCar? The closest I can come up with is Mario Moraes, a driver who had a brief cup of coffee in British Formula Three and had also competed in Fórmula 3 Sudamericana, but somehow was making his IndyCar debut a few months after turning 19 years old. Another driver that should be mentioned is Juho Annala. Who you ask? Annala started the 2008 Long Beach race driving for Rocketsports. Where did Annala come from? The Finn ran two seasons in British Formula Three's national class and a year in International Formula Master. Long Beach was Annala’s only start and few likely have a clue he ever competed.

The big difference between those two and Canapino is Canapino has a full career behind him backing up his abilities as he looks to find success on a new continent in an entirely different type of machinery.

2022 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 8th (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)

Poles: 0

Best Starting Position: 2nd (Laguna Seca)

Championship Finishes: 20th (Callum Ilott)

Callum Ilott - #77 Visit Argentina Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

1: Time where Ilott had consecutive lead lap finishes in 2022 (Iowa and the July IMS Road course race)

2: Times finishing better than his starting position in his first eight starts of 2022

6: Times finishing better than his starting position in his final eight starts of 2022

What does a championship season look like for him?

Ilott has that breathtaking qualifying pace from the first race of the season and his race finishes back up the pure speed. It might not necessarily be finishing better than where he rolls off, but taking a fifth-place start and at least coming home seventh or eight. It could be starting on the front row but at least finishing in the top five. It might take a few races but he will be using those days to get used to running at the front. 

Come the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Ilott is comfortable and pulls out a special victory, but one that is not all that surprising considering where we saw him running in the first four races. He pulls out a top ten in the Indianapolis 500, something that is victory for this team and can bridge him into the summer. He has a run of podium finishes that has everyone's attention and it includes his second victory of the season at Mid-Ohio. Another top five at Toronto has him in the championship lead. 

Iowa is about getting the most from a difficult situation. A pair of top ten finishes limit the damage before getting back on the podium at Nashville. He sweeps the IMS road course races, gets another top ten at Gateway and then wins at Portland with a top five at Laguna Seca sealing the championship.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Considering the resources of JHR, anything in the top fifteen would be a great year for this season. We know the team can produce speed. Ilott significantly exceeded expectations on qualifying pace. Even with those great qualifying performances we saw, Ilott still started outside the top fifteen in nine of 16 starts. JHR is still a small team. The pit crew is not at the level of Penske or Ganassi. The engineers are not at the same level. The team is not developing its own dampers. 

Ilott can only do so much, but he can be rather remarkable. It will be difficult for him to finish in the top five, but not impossible. It will not be a regular thing for him, but he could pull it off once or twice in 2023. Top ten finishes could happen in every other race. Eight top ten finishes is achievable, but that is the high end for this team's season. Five or six top ten finishes feels more practical.

Agustín Canapino - #78 Visit Argentina Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

2: Canapino is one of two motorsports competitors to win the Olimpia de Oro, the prize given to Argentina's sportsperson of the year. The other motorsports competitor to win it was Juan Manuel Fangio. 

15: Turismo Carretera race victories

26: Súper TC2000 race victories

8,267: Days between the last time an Argentine driver started an IndyCar race and the 2023 St. Petersburg season opener. The most recent Argentine to start an IndyCar race was Noberto Fontana at Toronto on July 16, 2000. 

What does a championship season look like for him?

It would have to be a combination of what Álex Palou did in 2021, Scott McLaughlin did in 2022 and a bit of what Robert Wickens did in 2018. Canapino would have to be the best driver from day one at St. Petersburg and leave everyone floored at his ability. Then Canapino would have to do it again and again and again. He would have to shatter everyone's preconceived notion about his abilities, including probably even his own. 

Canapino would need a run of top five results to open the season and then have an Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year worthy run. In the second half of the season, an average finish around 7.5 with at least three victories and five podium finishes would be enough to take an improbable championship. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Testing pace was rather encouraging for Canapino. He was 21st out of 27 drivers at the Thermal Club, but the second fastest rookie, and faster than Graham Rahal, Rinus VeeKay, Santino Ferrucci and Conor Daly. He is far from the top, but he wasn't rock bottom. 

It will be an exhausting season. Every track will be new. He will be caught out at a few tracks and be holding on to the rear of the field. It is unlikely he is racing to crack the top fifteen at many races this year. If he is cracking the top twenty a handful of times that could make it a great season. Ovals will be completely new to him. There is a good chance he will be the lowest driver in the championship among the full-time drivers. There should be enough daylight between him and Ilott in the final championship to drive a few Mack Trucks through. However, I think we will see Canapino improve over each round. 

The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race starting at noon.

2023 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

We are down to 25 days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season opens from St. Petersburg. Back for another IndyCar campaign is Chip Ganassi Racing. The championship-winning organization will have four cars, three returning drivers and two new drivers splitting one entry. It introduces a rookie to North America's premier open-wheel racing series while also keeping a veteran on the grid, though in a reduced role after over a decade as a full-time competitor.

At First Glance... Forget the future, Ganassi is here to win now

Ever since Scott Dixon won his fifth title, I started wondering about Chip Ganassi Racing's future. After the 2018 season, Dixon had won five titles, three in a six-season stretch, and he was on top of the world. But Dixon had been Ganassi's lone bullet for a number of seasons. 

Up to that point in the DW12-era, Ganassi had won 20 races and Dixon was responsible for 17 of those victories. A Ganassi driver not named Scott Dixon had not won a race since the 2014 season finale. Dixon was 38 years old, plenty of years left in the tank, but it was time to start planning for the future. 

Ganassi tried to do that, but it didn't really stick. Ed Jones came in for a season before Felix Rosenqvist joined the team. Rosenqvist won a race in 2020, looked ready to take the torch, but he left for McLaren after only two seasons with Ganassi. At the end of 2020, Dixon had picked up another championship, and the New Zealander's share of Ganassi victories increased to 23 of 27. 

In 2021, it looked like Ganassi had finally found its future. In year one with the organization, Álex Palou won on debut, scored three victories total and took the championship. All appeared set... and then Palou openly rejected Ganassi's announcement to retain the Spaniard for the 2023 season, as Palou hoped to join McLaren in a role that would include a Formula One opportunity.

Lawyers gathered, and ultimately we will see Palou return to Ganassi for the 2023, but it will be likely his final season with the team, and Ganassi's future appears again to be uncertain. 

But forget the future, Ganassi is ready to win now. Scott Dixon won two races last year and again went to the final race with a shot at the title before finishing third. Palou, even after all the tension within the Ganassi camp, still wound up fifth in the champion and won the 2022 season. Marcus Ericsson emerged as a stellar driver and won the Indianapolis 500, leading the championship for the middle chunk of the season before finishing sixth in the championship, only four points behind Palou. 

All three drivers are back and, frankly, they could all blow the doors off the competition in 2023. Dixon is still around, but he is no longer the lone bullet. In the last two seasons, he has accounted for only three of Ganassi's ten victories. Palou leads the way with four and Ericsson is level with three. 

This is the most balanced Ganassi team we have seen since the Dario Franchitti-Dixon partnership. After what could have been a sour divorce, Palou and Ganassi stuck through the 2022 season and ended on a high note. Ericsson keeps proving to be a capable set of hands. Throw in Takuma Sato on the ovals and the team will be four deep in five races. Consider what Palou did in year one with the team and Marcus Armstrong's road/street course focused rookie season could yield eye-catching results that leaves the competition flummoxed about how Ganassi found another gem. 

Any of Ganassi's three full-time drivers could end up as champion. All five drivers could win at some point this season. The future can wait for the moment. Ganassi has his group of winners ready to go. 

2022 Chip Ganassi Racing Review

Wins: 4 (Indianapolis 500, Toronto, Nashville, Laguna Seca)

Poles: 1 (Indianapolis 500)

Championship Finishes: 3rd (Scott Dixn), 5th (Álex Palou), 6th (Marcus Ericsson), 21st (Jimmie Johnson)

Marcus Ericsson - #8 Huski Chocolate Honda

Numbers to Remember:

5: Top five finishes in the first ten races of 2022

0: Top five finishes in the final seven races of 2022

19.047: Percentage of top five finishes in 63 IndyCar starts

What does a championship season look like for him?

Ericsson's 2022 season is the blueprint for a championship. The second half just has to be better. If you told Ericsson he would have the same results through the first ten races of 2023 that he had in 2022, I bet he would take it and bet on himself that he can improve in the final seven races to take the championship.

He led the championship by 35 points through ten races. Give him a do-over and Ericsson probably closes out that championship, but it would require him finishing in the top five and likely doing it at least four times, but probably needing five and at least one more victory, especially now that the Indianapolis 500 will not be double points. 

The strange thing is Ericsson did not driver poorly in the final seven races of the 2022 season. He had four top ten results, two 11th-place results and his worst finish was 14th. It would help to eliminate those non-top ten finishes but it would be helpful if those other oval races were also top five finishes. Change his final stat line to two victories, six podium finishes, 11 top five finishes and 14 top ten results, that could be enough for the championship. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Anything in the top ten is realistic, from championship with a half-dozen victories to tenth with underwhelming results. Ericsson has improved in each of his four IndyCar seasons. For most of the last two seasons we have seen a good driver. He won the Indianapolis 500 last year, but he probably only has about three races where he has been an actual threat for victory. Indianapolis is one of them and his other two victories aren't. 

He caught breaks to win at Belle Isle and Nashville in 2021. He was more of a contender at Mid-Ohio in 2021, pushing Josef Newgarden to the wire and coming home in second. Throw in Road America in 2022 and that is about it. We haven't seen Ericsson be a weekly threat yet in his IndyCar career. He has led more than 15 laps in a race only once. He has won three times but we have yet to see him be the man to beat in a race. We haven't had a weekend yet where entering it we have thought hands down Marcus Ericsson is the man to beat. That could happen this year but I am not sure it will be a regular thing. If it isn't a regular thing, at best he will be sixth in the championship for a third consecutive season.

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda

Numbers to Remember:

16: Top five championship finishes in the last 17 seasons

100: Percentage of laps completed in two of the last three seasons

128: Consecutive races ranked in the top ten of the championship. Dixon's last race outside the championship top ten was NOLA Motorsports Park in 2015.

114: Of those 128 races has seen Dixon ranked inside the top five of the championship

What does a championship season look like for him?

We have seen it six times before. Three victories or four victories or maybe five with possibly three on the spin to start the season or even Dixon can wait to win until July and still somehow emphatically take this championship convincing us it was a foregone conclusion. He will need about nine or ten podium finishes but make it look easy in the process, 12 or 13 top five results and top ten finishes in pretty much all the races, maybe he has one bad day all season, but it is still plenty to take home the championship. 

Dixon can win the title any of a number of ways. We know what he can do.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

The last two seasons were kind of uncomfortable to watch for Dixon, not because they were notably bad, but Dixon wasn't the clear lead Ganassi driver for most of that time, and after nearly a decade of counting on Dixon to be the Ganassi guy, it was jarring. He only won once in 2021 and then went over 14 months before he won again. We aren't used to seeing that. We saw Dixon discover his best form in the final half of 2022. He had six top five finishes in the final nine races with his worst result being 12th. He was the best Ganassi driver during that stretch by a long ways. 

Our concern is Dixon is 42 years old. He turns 43 in the middle of this season. Nothing lasts forever, and every driver has a fall off at an older age. A.J. Foyt, Mario Andretti, Michael Andretti, they all had it. Dixon has appeared to be far from a drop off but it can sneak up on the best of them. The guy lives in the top five of the championship. That will remain the expectation, and until seen otherwise, we shouldn't think this is the season he heads in the wrong direction.

Álex Palou - #10 American Legion Honda

Numbers to Remember:

8.444: Average finish in the nine races prior to July 12, 2022

7.5: Average finish in the eight races after July 12, 2022

42.42: Percentage of podium finishes in 33 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing

What does a championship season look like for him?

It looks like Palou being the hardest man to beat in IndyCar. It is him starting strong and never releasing his grip. An early victory, early visits to the podium, another strong Indianapolis 500 and then repeating that throughout the rest of the season. An Indianapolis 500 victory would put Palou on a pedestal that will be daunting for anyone to topple. 

A championship season is going to require three or four victories, spread over ovals, road courses and street courses. Palou is going to be claiming residency in the top five. The bad days will not exist. That mistake isn't going to happen. It will feel inevitable around Nashville that the championship is Palou's. There will be one race that has us second guessing but then Palou responses with four ruthless finishes, no one is able to gain any ground and for the second time in three years, the title is his.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Considering how Palou finished 2022 after it looked like he possibly ran himself out of a ride midseason, I don't think we are going to see a bad year from Palou, at least not a bad year because of his own ability. He isn't going to mail it in this year. He isn't going to quit on this team even if he will be turning in his ID badge after Laguna Seca. He is going for victories and likely will be a contender until the very end. 

Anything less than that will not be far off, almost identical to his 2022 season, good, much better than most, but not fantastic enough. In two years with Ganassi, Palou hasn't really put a wheel wrong. His worst results have been mechanical failures or being taken out by others. We are not going to see Palou start tripping over himself now. If he has a bad season it is because the rest of the grid nails it. At worst, Palou will be at the back of the top ten, between eighth and tenth, but if he finishes in any of those positions we will still be pointing out how little Palou did wrong.

Marcus Armstrong - #11 Ridgeline Honda

Numbers to Remember:

13: Average championship finish in three Formula Two seasons. Armstrong was 13th in the championship in all three of his seasons

1: Podium finish in 34 Formula Two feature race starts. It was the first feature race in the 2020 season opener at the Red Bull Ring, Armstrong's Formula Two debut

357.6364: Average number of points for IndyCar Rookie of the Year since 2012

29.803: Average number of points Armstrong would need to score per start to reach that 357.6364 point total.

30: Points paid for a fifth-place finish at all IndyCar races. 

What does a championship season look like for him?

This is where it gets tricky because Armstrong is only committed to run the 12 road/street course events. It is probably going to take about 540 points to win the championship. Split that over 12 starts and Armstrong will have to average about 45 points per start. That is basically alternating winning and second-place over his 12 starts. That is asking for a lot for any driver let alone a rookie that has never competed on any of these tracks before. If Armstrong does that, Ganassi will have McLaren poaching another driver from its organization.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

It is a bit of a hazy picture of Armstrong. He was good in Formula Two, but not really great. He never won a feature race, the races where the grid is set via qualifying speed. The sprint races, set via invert of either feature race results or qualifying speeds, are where Armstrong had his success, meaning he was either sixth, seventh or eighth in either the feature or qualifying and, when he was moved to the front, he hung on. 

In the feature races, we didn't see Armstrong regularly competing for podium results, suggesting that raw pace might not be there. His average feature race result in 2022 was 11th. Over 38 Formula Two feature races, his average improves slightly to 10.3421.

Testing results looked good at The Thermal Club. He adjusted well, ending in the top ten regularly and remaining in the ballpark with his mighty teammates. There will still be growing pains, like we saw with Christian Lundgaard. Between the circuits, the alternate compound tires and lack of driving components, there will be races Armstrong starts well but falls off, but there will also be weekends he is on point. 

Romain Grosjean did the road/street course only schedule (sans a late cameo at Gateway) and it got him 15th in the championship with a shot at rookie of the year into the finale. I don't think Armstrong will be that good. Grosjean also had three podium finishes that season. The top twenty in the championship is in play and I cannot rule out Armstrong hitting it on two or three weekends and finding his way into the top five. 

Takuma Sato - #11 Ridgeline Honda

Numbers to Remember:

207: Races started out of the last 208 races (missed the 2020 Texas season opener due to a qualifying accident)

39: Consecutive starts without a podium finish, Sato's longest drought since a 40-race stretch between São Paulo 2013 and Belle Isle II in 2015. It is the second longest podium drought in his IndyCar career

16.0: Average finish in 2022, his worst since averaging 16.0 in 2013

16.2: Average finish on ovals in 2022

14.959: Career average finish on ovals (74 starts)

What does a championship season look like for him?

Near impossible now that the Indianapolis 500 is no longer double points. Sato will only be running the five oval races. If he wins all five, and we still do not know how many points will be available in Indianapolis 500 qualifying (if any extra are awarded in the first place), and lets just say Indianapolis 500 pole position remains 12 points, the most Sato could score is 281 points. That would have only placed Sato in 17th in the championship last year. 

A championship season would mean either Sato becomes a full-time driver at some point during the season or every other driver comes down with a severe illness that prevent those drivers from running more than five races in 2023 and none of them win five times with maximum points each time. 

It is easier to say a championship isn't going to happen for Sato in 2023.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Considering Sato is a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner, many have high expectations for Sato in this role. It is a great team. It just won the Indianapolis 500. Pretty much the entire Ganassi organization was toward the front at Indianapolis last year. Sato is in the right place, but I think we have to take a step back and realize while Sato has won the Indianapolis 500 twice, in 13 Indianapolis 500 starts he has only three top ten finishes. The other was third in 2019. Yes, he nearly won in 2012 while battling Dario Franchitti, but his average finish in the event is 16.6923. We have seen Sato excel at Indianapolis, but we have also seen him be rather anonymous in the famed event more times than not. 

Sato could get strong results and none of it would be surprising. He ended the 2022 oval season with a tenth and a fifth in the second Iowa race and at Gateway respectively. There will be at least one or two races where Sato is around the front. It will not be all five races. There will also be at least one or two races where we forget he is in the field. As for where he ends up in the championship? He will score between 65-85 points. With the number of full-time drivers this season, Sato will be 28th or 29th. Somewhere just inside the top 30. 

The fun battle will be who is the best oval-only driver in 2023, Sato or Ed Carpenter?

The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race starting at noon.

Musings From the Weekend: Early Season IndyCar Thoughts

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Ford will be returning to Formula One as an engine constructor for Red Bull starting in the 2026 season. Red Bull showed off something old in New York. The NASCAR season began with a fire and Martin Truex, Jr. winning the Clash at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. We might have to get used to the Coliseum, as Fontana may be out of commission for two years and will definitely be unavailable for 2024. Mercedes-AMGs came together at Bathurst but set up a grandstand finish. People are angry they couldn't attend a test. IndyCar dropped double points from the Indianapolis 500. But there are a few other IndyCar-related things that are on my mind...

Early Season IndyCar Thoughts

Less than a month is between us and the 2023 IndyCar season opener, and with testing just concluding, I found myself with a handful of IndyCar thoughts racing around my skull. It was difficult to settle on one to write about, and frankly, it would be a disservice to only focus on one when the others are worthy of consideration. This week we are going to tackle a few topics, and we will start, fittingly enough, with the most recent IndyCar test.

Why is Thermal Club's Interest in IndyCar a Bad Thing?

This year's preseason test was at an unfamiliar setting for IndyCar. Thermal Club in Palm Springs, California is not your typical racetrack. The country club track is known more for being a playground to wealth individuals looking to drive their sports cars or club racers for fun. It is for novices that just want to play race car driver like a kid playing starting forward for the Los Angeles Lakers in their driveway. 

Thermal Club doesn't host any other professional series. It has never hosted a proper event. IndyCar's two days at the track last week was the first time the series ever made laps at the place. 

With Thermal Club being a private facility, most aren't going to be able to strut up to the front door and get in. Entry requires membership or at least an invitation from a member. For the IndyCar test last week, it was a private event. The doors were not open to spectators. Even without people in attendance, Thermal Club has made it known it would like to host a race. It has even suggested some form of exhibition pro-am, where club members are paired with an IndyCar entry, the club members race and set the grid for the IndyCar drivers' main event. 

This test received a fair share of backlash, partially over it being closed to the public, and also because it was not broadcasted, but the talks about a new IndyCar event and something catering a select group of individuals has been met with distain. 

Understanding the resentment to IndyCar doing something to please the wealthy, I must say IndyCar has all the right in the world to do this and at least try something different. For starters, IndyCar has a track interested in hosting an event and paying to do so. That is something rare for IndyCar. Tracks aren't lining up to host IndyCar at the moment. There is a reason Richmond didn't try to return after the 2020 race was cancelled due to the pandemic. The same with a possible Homestead return. Those tracks didn't see IndyCar as worth it. Hence why the schedule has been relatively unchanged since the pandemic. If a track is interested, the series must listen.

If this event can be one that allows the teams to make some money, and reportedly club members would fork over at least $100,000 to participate in the pro-am, I don't think we should prevent teams from getting a small chunk of change. It is also a chance to network and allow teams to create new partnerships and possibly gain new sponsors that could be around for many years. 

It is a bit closed off, but IndyCar has a right, as any business does, to do what makes the most sense for the business. One event that is focused on the corporate crowd isn't going to kill the series. It would likely strengthen the series. I don't know if any future event at Thermal Club will be open to the public. I don't know if IndyCar would require the club to open its doors to non-members to be spectators, but as I have written before, basically every IndyCar race is fan friendly. There are good deals throughout the schedule to attend, including the Indianapolis 500. 

It is ok if the Thermal Club isn't targeted at you. It is a different way for the series to grow, and IndyCar should try every way possible.

IndyCar's Travel Bug

We are still basically a month from the season opener, and there has still been almost six months since the most recent IndyCar event. There aren't many tracks with the United States where IndyCar could start earlier than its current season opener at St. Petersburg, but this offseason we saw IndyCar scratching a travel bug. 

Juncos Hollinger Racing took a car down to Argentina for a demonstration runs at two tracks in the home nation of JHR co-owner Ricardo Juncos. Juncos has been a key figure in discussions about a possible race in the South American nation. IndyCar has even perked up its ears at the possible trip south, even though IndyCar ownership has been rather dismissive of flyaway races. 

Is it realistic for IndyCar to become a traveling series? 

Obviously, IndyCar will not become Formula One with two-dozen races around the globe, but can IndyCar even afford one intercontinental trip let alone multiple? IndyCar isn't that popular. As much as we talk about the international flavor of IndyCar, it doesn't have a large enough fanbase anywhere off the North American continent to host a sustainable races. We have seen Germany, England, Japan, Brazil, Netherlands and Belgium each fail to sustain races in the 21st century. Argentina is a motorsports mad country and properly supported its Formula E races in Buenos Aires while also having popular domestic series, but it is hard to believe the support will be there for IndyCar to become an annual visitor. 

IndyCar has enough struggles creating successful domestic events. It takes more to make an international race work than one at home, and those international events are more dependent on sponsorship and, in some cases, government funding. All it takes is one administration change and the event is gone in a blink. 

It would be nice if IndyCar had at least a race on another continent, but it must have massive support behind it and be properly researched before attempting to organize it. We should keep those passports in the safe for the time being. 

Long Beach Invitational

It wouldn't be proper to be thinking about IndyCar without coming up with one pie-in-the-sky idea. 

Long Beach this year falls on the weekend of April 16. Nothing special. The weekend after Easter. It is just another date on the calendar. However, 20 drivers will not be busy that weekend. These aren't IndyCar drivers. The Chinese Grand Prix was supposed to take place that same weekend, but Formula One cancelled that race due to travel restrictions due to COVID-19. Though replacement races in either Portugal or Turkey were floated to fill that weekend, Formula One will not have a race that weekend and teams will get an extra few days at home. 

However, IndyCar should take advantage of this. IndyCar needs attention. That is its biggest problem. Many are interested in Formula One. IndyCar... not so much. Everyone keeps talking about the growth in Formula One's popularity in the United States leading to other forms of motorsports growing in popularity as well. I don't buy it. I don't think general motorsports fans are being created. People are smarter than that. They are in love with the glitz and glamour of Formula One. They aren't going to be fooled for an imposter. 

If IndyCar wants to grow off the back of Formula One, it has to get dirty. Ugly. Make people stare though they know they should look away. If IndyCar wants to get popular off the back of Formula One, it has to get out there, nearly be the antithesis of Formula One's current direction, and demand attention. 

How does IndyCar do that? Take advantage of Formula One's cancelled race. 

IndyCar has nothing to lose by throwing caution to the wind and inviting some Formula One drivers to participate at Long Beach, and it should raise the stakes. It should be something that is borderline insulting to Formula One drivers, $1 million if any Formula One driver shows up to Long Beach and can finish in the top ten. 

It is a gamble, but it is IndyCar puffing out its chest and putting money behind the ability of its drivers that it doesn't think a Formula One driver, the self-proclaimed best drivers in the world, could crack the top ten in an IndyCar race. Basically dare anyone in Formula One to think this will be a free million dollars. 

Would this work? Obviously, most drivers would have some contract stipulation prevent them from participating. There are also plenty of drivers that do not need the million dollars. Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen likely wouldn't roll out of bed if even $10 million was offered. Ferrari isn't going to let either of its drivers show up. 

But McLaren might be game. Lando Norris will have some free time. Oscar Piastri is basically a nobody. It could be worth it. Williams might let American Logan Sargeant make his first proper racing start in the United States in this one off. It might actually be worth it for Sargeant because that million dollars could be used to help pay for his next Formula One season. It would almost be a fundraiser for the likes of Sargeant and any other young driver needing a checkbook to support a ride. Alexander Albon could give it a go. Haas might be open to letting Kevin Magnussen compete especially since Magnussen has run at Long Beach before in sports cars. Maybe Fernando Alonso will be game for the challenge. Alonso likes attention! He would get to be the star for another IndyCar fling. 

Doing nothing and sitting on one's hands isn't going to get IndyCar any attention. A challenge, especially to those who believe they are already superior? That will turn some heads. And if the likes of Alonso or Norris or Piastri or even Sargeant were to show up and compete, it would only sell more tickets for the Long Beach race and more people would have a reason to tune in at home. 

If IndyCar wants to grow it must take a crazy risk every now and then. Playing it safe has only gotten the series so far and it has fallen a little flat. Let's light a fire under everybody. Pony up the money and let's see what happens. Even if IndyCar has to pay up it would not be a negative for the series. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Martin Truex, Jr., but did you know...

The #75 SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG of Jules Gounon, Luca Stolz and Kenny Habul won the Bathurst 12 Hour, its second consecutive victory and Gounon's third consecutive victory.

Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from Houston, his third victory of the season.

Laurens van Hoepen won the 67th New Zealand Grand Prix. Kaleb Ngatoa and Charlie Wurz won opening races of the Formula Regional Oceania races from Hampton Downs Motorsports Park.

Coming Up This Weekend

Formula E has its inaugural event in Hydrabad, India.

Supercross warms up in Tampa.

Rally Sweden freezes the World Rally Championship.

Dubai has the opening doubleheader of the Asian Le Mans Series season.

Taupo Motorsports Park closes out the Formula Regional Oceania season.

2023 IndyCar Team Preview: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

We are approaching the final days of the IndyCar offseason. Testing is taking place. Every seat is claimed. Now we wait, and we are entering the final half of the team previews. Thirty days are all that are between now and the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series opener. It is only fitting that 30 days out for the first race of the season we look at the team what runs car #30. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is back with three cars for another season. While there were bright spots in 2022, there are plenty of areas where this team has room for improvement to become a serious front-runner on a regular basis.

At First Glance... This could be something special

The 2022 season did not result in any victories or notable championship result for any of the three Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers. It was actually a tough season where RLLR's qualifying woes continued onward for another year, but even with all the low moments, this three-car team ended 2022 on an optimistic note. 

RLLR had won a race in six consecutive seasons prior to the 2021 season. It had placed a driver in the championship top ten in seven consecutive seasons prior to 2022. It has been in the right zip code for the most of the last decade, it just hasn't found the right address. 

Last year was difficult, but there are plenty of positives to draw from that season. Graham Rahal missed out on the championship top ten, but he still had nine top ten finishes. Christian Lundgaard had a rough start to the season, but he still won Rookie of the Year and still had his first career podium finish and picked up another top five finish in the finale. Jack Harvey... had a bad year. There is no point in sugarcoating it, but all these drivers at their best with RLLR at its best could combine for sensational results.

It will be approaching six years since Rahal's most recent victory, but in the interim he probably should have won one of those races. Even without a victory, he is a consistent driver who is at the front more than the rear even with his underwhelming qualifying pace. Better starting positions would likely lead to improved results, and improved results into better championship finishes.

Lundgaard has taken to IndyCar stoutly. At the end of 2022, he was getting better qualifying results and was regularly in the top ten and finishing even better than that. He came into IndyCar like a lightning bolt and though he wasn't shaking the field, everyone has their eyes on the Dane moving forward. 

Harvey took a startling fall back in his first year with RLLR. After being a frequent sleeper for Meyer Shank Racing, Harvey was expected to make a leap forward at his new team. Instead, he went in the wrong direction and raised many eyebrows. However, we have seen what Harvey can do in the right circumstances. A second season should see things get better. 

All three of these drivers performing at their highest can win races. If they all click simultaneously, RLLR could be set for its best season since at least the 2001 CART season where Kenny Bräck was championship runner-up, even two would be enough. "If" is the biggest two-letter word of them all, but for RLLR in 2023, great success is possible

2022 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 2nd (July IMS road course race)

Poles: 0 

Best Start: 3rd (Nashville, Portland)

Championship Finishes: 11th (Graham Rahal), 14th (Christian Lundgaard), 22nd (Jack Harvey)

Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals Honda

Numbers to Remember:

0: Podium finishes in 2022, Rahal's first season without a podium result since 2010 when Rahal began the season without a ride and then drove for four different teams

90: Consecutive races without a victory, the second longest drought of Rahal's career

9: Average number of top ten finishes in a season

What does a championship season look like for him?

Qualifying results drastically improve. Instead of being regularly outside the top ten and outside the top fifteen, Rahal is a regular in the Fast Six. That qualifying pace translate into race results. He starts with a handful of top ten finishes, some of those being top five results. He wins one of the first five races and has a top five finish in the Indianapolis 500. 

Set up high in the championship after Indianapolis, he remains at the point and a second victory at Road America or Mid-Ohio has everyone believing Rahal could be a championship threat. He is constantly in the top ten over the summer and isn't losing much ground to the rest of the competition. A victory in Nashville or in the second IMS road course race assures Rahal is going to be there until very end. A strong podium result at Gateway or Portland puts Rahal a top and he closes with an emphatic top five run at Laguna Seca when many still doubt him but it is enough to clinch the championship. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

It will be eight years since Rahal's one championship chase back in 2015. That season came almost out of nowhere. He was 19th the year prior. Eleventh to first is nothing in comparison. A championship would require no mistakes, no bad days and Rahal capitalizing on a season where there isn't one dominant driver. It would require a number of dominoes falling the right way. 

Prior to 2022, Rahal had been in the championship top ten for seven consecutive seasons. His 2022 form wasn't that poor. He was 11th. A few races going his way and he is back in the top ten, but IndyCar gets tougher every season and Rahal must make a notable leap forward. A victory is possible for any member of this team. Somewhere between sixth and 13th in the championship feels like Rahal's territory with eight to 12 top ten finishes. 

Jack Harvey - #30 Kustom Entertainment Honda

Numbers to Remember:

17.3125: Average finish in 2022, 20th among IndyCar regulars

16.625: Average starting position in 2022, 20th among IndyCar regulars

1,992: Laps completed in 2022, 19th among IndyCar regulars

209: Points in 2022, 22nd in the IndyCar championship

What does a championship season look like for him?

It would have to start with Harvey blowing the doors off of everybody. Winning St. Petersburg and setting the tone that he has shed the 2022 season and is a new driver for 2023. But winning the first race can easily be dismissed. Five consecutive top five finishes is harder to reject. Another top five in the Indianapolis 500 and Harvey is out ahead of the field early in the championship. 

A second victory comes early in the summer and Harvey remains consistently finishing in the top ten. His qualifying form harkens back to his early days with Meyer Shank Racing. He has multiple pole positions. Another victory comes at the IMS road course and he ends the season with a run of four consecutive top ten finishes to take the Astor Cup.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Considering how bad 2022 was, there will be an improvement in 2023 no matter what happens. It might sound crazy to call that a guarantee but 22nd in the championship and behind Jimmie Johnson is quite awful. Harvey could drive this season with his eyes closed and at worse come up 18th in the championship. It doesn't sound great but it would be a four-position gain in the championship. 

We do have to acknowledge the flaws that are appearing with Harvey. A few seasons ago, he was the steal on the grid, making MSR a contender for race victories. Something has been lost over the past two seasons. In 2022, the reliably quick driver we came to know and love wasn't there. There were flashes, but it didn't translate. He had two top ten finishes. Five top ten finishes should be the minimum for Harvey. Neither of his teammates were sensational last season, but they each got at least seven top ten finishes. In fact, 14 of the top fifteen in the championship last year had at least seven top ten finishes. He should get close to that, but you must hold your breathe on it being significantly better than that.

Christian Lundgaard - #45 HyVee Honda

Numbers to Remember:

14.25: Average finish in the first eight races of 2022

12.222: Average finish in the final nine races of 2022

10.5: Average finish in the final nine races after removing his 26th in the second Iowa race when Lundgaard was forced to retire due to brake issues

13.571: Average finish in the first eight races after removing his worst finish from that span, a 19th at Texas when he retired after brushing the barrier

What does a championship season look like for him?

The second half of 2022 carrying over into 2023. Instead of opening with four consecutive finishes outside the top ten, Lundgaard has four consecutive top ten finishes to open the season, at least one is a top five result. At Indianapolis, he isn't second but first in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and in the Indianapolis 500 he shows respectable pace and gets a top ten finish. 

The summer starts with good form, but he hits his stride at Mid-Ohio with another victory and that starts a run of top five finishes that gives him the championship lead. A good Iowa weekend starts to convince people Lundgaard has what it takes. He gets a pair of podium finishes between Nashville and the second IMS road course race. He is increasing his championship lead incrementally. A good day at Gateway, seventh, is an exhale and he controls serve into the final two events. Another podium result at Portland calms his nerves and a smart top five run in Laguna Seca seals the title.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Lundgaard can end this season as the top RLLR driver. I put him slightly ahead of Rahal in terms of odds of winning a race in 2023. The circuits that suit Lundgaard suit him well. The one thing in Rahal's favor is Rahal is consistency, but Lundgaard showed in the second half of 2022 that he was getting to that level. If Rahal is on point, it will be tough to top, but if Rahal is slightly off, it will open the door for Lundgaard.

The Dane should make a run for the championship top ten. The key will be a better balance to the season, and that should happen. If he can get to ten top ten finishes, which is achievable, he will be close. It will come down to how many of those results are on the podium and in the top five. Good qualifying results could be the difference between two or three spots in the championship. Lundgaard was already the top RLLR qualifier, albeit his qualifying average was only 14.9. If he can lower than average by nearly three positions, championship top ten could be his.

The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race beginning at noon.