Monday, October 16, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: Separating the Sprint

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Petit Le Mans had an underwhelming conclusion. Driving standards were still spotty. MotoGP made history in multiple ways in Indonesia, and the riders are working on a union. There was October rookie orientation from Indianapolis Motor Speedway. A disqualification has set a driver back in the NASCAR world. The Las Vegas race had a good finish without any race control intervention. Formula One drivers are flocking to the United States, and that brings up something I heard earlier this year. 

Separating the Sprint
For the first time, the United States Grand Prix from Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas will be a sprint weekend. Two weeks ago, at the most recent sprint weekend held in Qatar, history was made. For the first time ever, the World Drivers' Championship was clinched in the sprint race as Max Verstappen's runner-up result on Saturday from Losail sealed the championship before we even got to the grand prix.

It was a peculiar feeling knowing the championship was already decided before we even got to Sunday even though it was still up for grabs on Friday. It was somewhat of an extra anti-climatic finish to what was already an obvious conclusion to this season. We all knew Verstappen was going to take this title. Claiming it during a Saturday sprint race felt flat.

This is our third season with sprint races, a feature of a race weekend that still quite hasn't found its place in Formula One. The sprint races are rarely better or different than the grand prix we will see on Sunday. They are more prologues for what will be more to come. Sprint weekends are disruptive in a bad way.

Previously, there was that uncertainty over why the sprint race would set the grand prix grid but qualifying set the sprint race lineup and then questioning where grid penalties should be enforced. This season, Formula One changed up the sprint weekends. It effectively made each Saturday of a sprint weekend its own day, disconnected from the rest of the race weekend. Friday would feature practice and qualifying for Sunday. Saturday would have no bearing on the grand prix. Qualifying on Saturday set the sprint grid. The sprint results only paid the additional points for the top eight finishers. Any grid penalties were enforced based on the Friday results for the grand prix on Sunday.

These changes might be better, but the sprint races still do not quite fit. For starters, though the number of sprint weekends doubled this season, only six of 22 weekends have sprint races, and because of the nature of some tracks (Monaco in particular), there is a general feeling that no one wants the sprint format used at every grand prix.

Stuck in this middle ground of never quite working for every round, but only factoring in just over a quarter of the races, Formula One sprint weekends do not have a guaranteed future. However, Sky Sports Formula One lead commentator David Croft had an interesting proposition for the sprint weekends during Formula One's summer break.

During an episode of the Sky Sports F1 Podcast, Croft proposed a separate sprint championship that paid points to its own championship. Croft proposed the sprint festivities being held on Friday before the regular grand prix weekend commenced on Saturday. The lead commentator said it would allow teams to work on the cars and not have the cars under parc fermé conditions due to the sprint weekend. Croft even suggested the separate sprint championship could allow teams to put in a reserve driver for the sprint weekend while a full-time driver could get a day off before the grand prix portion began.

I can get behind this concept of a separate sprint championship. For starters, it could allow a handful of weekends to be different and add something to the grand prix weekend but not alter the world championship. I love the idea of it being used to allow reserve drivers to get a chance to run a Formula One car and get experience.

There are a few adjustments I would make. One, the sprint race would have to remain on Saturday. It would not get proper attention on a Friday. Two, it should only be for reserve drivers or at least drivers that have limited Formula One experience or have not been in Formula One for a while.

My proposal would be the sprint be limited to drivers with 20 or fewer starters, meaning they have never competed in a full season or a driver who has been out of Formula One for at least eight seasons, like Sébastien Buemi or Jean-Éric Vergne. 

This would keep the series as an additional development step but it would also allow some experienced drivers in who may still have what it takes to race in Formula One but not have the series full of the likes of Daniel Ricciardo, Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Räikkönen, Stoffel Vandoorne and other drivers who recently lost a Formula One ride. It would take away a crutch for the teams to lean on and force them to hire different drivers, especially from different corners of the motorsports world.

There could even be a relaxation of the Super License points requirement and allow drivers with say only ten points a chance in a Formula One car to prove himself or herself. This sprint championship could award additional Super License points and allow a driver to qualify for a full-time Formula One gig. 

I would also make sure the sprint championship was nine races in length, but a driver could only compete in six races. Why? It forces each team to run at least three drivers. If there are nine races, each team would have 18 starts to fill. If a driver could only make six starts, a team could rotate three drivers in one season, all three could get six races and more drivers would get experience. That is a good thing for Formula One as a whole. 

With the sprint being a separate championship, and if it were to remain on Saturday, I don't think the teams could use the current cars. It would be nonsensical for Mercedes for example to take Lewis Hamilton and George Russell's cars and change the seats out for two other drivers to race while risking what will be the grand prix car. However, it does not sound practical for each team to bring four of the current cars to a race weekend. I am not sure at what point in the season the teams have four cars ready to go. It definitely doesn't feel that way early in the year.

This could be the year-old car championship. There will be plenty around and they can still be useful for development. They still have to be brought to each race weekend, an additional cost, but these can be the sprint drivers' cars and they will not have to worry about damaging it and then ruining the race weekend for one of the main drivers.

A sprint championship running concurrently with the main championship would mean more in a race weekend, and it also means Friday doesn't have to be practice and qualifying for the grand prix on Sunday. The weekend could be kind of normal except for more Formula One action. Sprint weekends could be strategically scheduled when either Formula Three or Formula Two was not on the undercard.

Practice for the grand prix could remain the same with two one-hour sessions, but there could be a pair of 45-minute sessions set aside for the sprint championship. On Saturday, we could still have grand prix practice before a sprint qualifying session ahead of the grand prix qualifying with the sprint race closing out the day.

The sprint weekends could be spread over the calendar and rotated year to year. It doesn't have to be fixed at any venues. It could begin in Australia and Japan before moving to Canada, Austria and Silverstone. Belgium could host a round before running in Azerbaijan, Mexico and Brazil.

The next year could be Bahrain and China to start then Miami and Spain. Zandvoort and Monza could then be sprint rounds before Singapore, Brazil and Las Vegas close out. It doesn't have to be the same each year, nor should it be. Perhaps Brazil and Silverstone could be the constant sprint weekends, but each year should be something different.

Formula One's sprint format has not been fully embraced through its first three years, but an alteration could make it accepted. Changing it from being tied to the world championship but being something different that has different drivers competing could be the answer.

Champions From the Weekend

The #31 Whelen Engineering Cadillac of Pipo Serani and Alexander Sims clinched the IMSA GTP championship with a sixth-place finish at Petit Le Mans. 

The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Ben Keating and Paul-Loup Chatin clinched the IMSA LMP2 championship with a fourth-place finish. 

The #14 VasserSullivan Lexus of Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth clinched the IMSA GTD Pro championship by starting the Petit Le Mans season finale. 

The #40 Tresor Orange1 Audi of Ricardo Feller and Mattia Drudi clinched the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship by sweeping the Zandvoort doubleheader.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about a few champions, but did you know...

The #60 Meyer Shank Racing Acura of Tom Blomqvist, Colin Braun and Hélio Castroneves won Petit Le Mans. The #04 CrowdStrike Racing by APR Oreca-Gibson of George Kurtz, Ben Hanley and Nolan Siegel won in LMP2. The #30 JR III Racing Ligier-Nissan of Dakota Dickerson, Bijoy Garg and Garett Grist won in LMP3. The #79 WeatherTech Racing Mercedes-AMG of Daniel Juncadella, Jules Gounon and Maro Engel won in GTD Pro. The #78 Forte Racing Powered by USRT Lamborghini of Misha Goikhberg, Loris Spinelli and Patrick Liddy won in GTD.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Indonesian Grand Prix, his sixth victory of the season. Jorge Martín won the sprint race. Pedro Acosta won the Moto2 race, his seventh victory of the season. Diogo Moreira won the Moto3 race, his first career victory.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Las Vegas, his fourth victory of the season. Riley Herbst won the Grand National Series race, his first career victory.

The #36 TGR Team au TOM’S Toyota of Sho Tsuboi and Ritomo Miyata won in Super GT race from Autopolis, its second victory of the season. The #52 Saitama Toyopet GreenBrave Toyota of Hiroki Yoshida and Konya Kawaai won in GT300, its second consecutive victory. 

Coming Up This Weekend
The first time the United States Grand Prix hosts a sprint weekend. 
MotoGP heads to its best race of the season, the Australian Grand Prix from Phillip Island. 
The European Le Mans Series concludes with a doubleheader in Portimão. 
Hockenheim closes out the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters season.
NASCAR has its antepenultimate race from Homestead.



Friday, October 13, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren's 2023 Season

Our antepenultimate IndyCar wrap-up takes us to a team that arguably was the most disappointing in 2023. Many things went right for Arrow McLaren this season, and it was getting regularly coverage. However, the team set lofty goals and missed on the most basic one in a season. In a year where teams that openly struggled won races, McLaren was shut out in IndyCar competition. No matter how you try to square it, this was a massive letdown for the group in papaya.

Patricio O'Ward
Carrying the McLaren flag into the 2023 season, O'Ward looked to ascend to a higher level this season, returning to being a championship contender after a slight step back in 2022. O'Ward flashed his skill in many races, and again showed why he remains one of IndyCar's stars for the future while also being a star of the present. However, this season went far from how O'Ward had planned.

What objectively was his best race?
Nobody had more runner-up finishes than O'Ward in 2023. The Mexican driver had four runner-up results, including two in the first two races, first at St. Petersburg and then at Texas. He didn't have to wait long for his third, which came in the Grand prix of Indianaplis the third race of the season. The fourth was a little longer of a wait. It didn't come until Gateway in August. 

What subjectively was his best race?
St. Petersburg and Texas were two races O'Ward practically had won, but the best of them all was Texas. O'Ward had run away from the field in the middle of the race and had lapped up to third while holding a seven-second lead over Josef Newgarden in second. The late cautions brought the field together and more players into the mix. O'Ward led 123 laps, but in the lap battle with Newgarden, Newgarden ended up ahead when the caution came out and O'Ward was second again. 

What objectively was his worst race?
A long pit stop due to the left rear tire not being secured at Detroit put O'Ward a lap down, and he raced like a mad man to get back on the lead lap. However, an aggressive move while passing Santino Ferrucci into the final corner put O'Ward into the barrier, ending his day in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
O'Ward led the most laps in the Indianapolis 500 before an ambitious move for second on the inside of Marcus Ericsson into turn three spun O'Ward into the barrier with eight laps remaining. It was getting late in the race. There was still time left for a counter, but O'Ward made an eager move when he should not have. It cost him and that anger carried over to Detroit, where he made another mistake.

It was a pair of disappointing results and unraveled his season. He still ran well for the rest of the season, but he never posed another serious threat to the championship. 

Patricio O'Ward's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 4th (484 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 14
Laps Led: 189
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 10
Fast Twelves: 12
Average Start: 6.3529
Average Finish: 7.9412

Alexander Rossi
After seven seasons with Andretti Autosport, Rossi moved to take over the #7 Chevrolet for McLaren. Looking to compete for a championship, Rossi expected to be competing as the best of the McLaren drivers. That was never really the case. The results were good, but Rossi was rarely leading this trio.

What objectively was his best race?
The only podium finish of Rossi's season was third in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Rossi spent much of the race in the top five and he had the tires late in the race to take third away from Christian Lundgaard, who had started on pole position.

What subjectively was his best race?
It was a quiet fifth-place finish for Rossi in the Indianapolis 500 as he was the third-best McLaren car for most of the race but was still running in the top ten. O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist were regularly ahead of Rossi. When both those drivers dropped out, Rossi stepped up and earned a respectable finish for the team.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rossi had two finishes of 22nd and in consecutive races. At Texas, Rossi had a collision with Kyle Kirkwood on pit lane after his first pit stop, and Rossi lost time for repairs. At Long Beach, Rossi was running in the top ten before a suspension failure on the final lap knocked him out of the race only a three corners from the finish. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Long Beach was the worst of the two 22nd-place finish. Texas stunk because it was early and Rossi could have found himself in the mix late, but there was no guarantee. Long Becah was at least going to be a good bounce back from Texas. Instead, it was salt in the wound. 

Alexander Rossi's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 9th (375 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 11.353
Average Finish: 10.941

Felix Rosenqvist
Rosenqvist made a sizable improvement to his results in 2022 after a rough 2021 season. In a three-car lineup, Rosenqvist faced stiffer competition. There were days he held his own, but there were still streaky periods to the Swede's season. It wasn't terrible, but it was not quite what driver nor team was looking for. 

What objectively was his best race?
The caution being held at Portland for Agustín Canapino's spin meant Rosenqvist could make his final pit stop and move up to second instead of being one of the few cars trapped out before his final pit stop. This occurrence upset some drivers as Rosenqvist did pick up a few spots as the caution came before the Swede had to make an out-lap, meaning the likes of Scott Dixon and O'Ward lost positions. 

Rosenqvist was always going to finish in the top five and possibly finish on the podium. It was just a slightly better finish due to race control's decision.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is a little tough but I will say the second Iowa race, where Rosenqvist finished fourth. He was keeping pace was Josef Newgarden as Rosenqvist was in second. The late caution for Ed Carpenter’s incident cost Rosenqvist, as he dropped to fourth when Will Power had the better jump on the restart and Rosenqvist ran wide, allowing Álex Palou ahead. 

For a driver not known for his oval prowess, it was a good year going in circles for Rosenqvist.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rosenqvist's collision with the barrier and spin late in the Indianapolis 500 left him 27th despite running much of the race in the top ten and appearing to emerge as a late contender as the race counted down the final 100 miles.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Indianapolis because there is a world where Rosenqvist is in the top five battle late. He could have won, but it would have been difficult. Indianapolis was the best race of his IndyCar career until he had a bobble in turn one and slapped the barrier. He looked settled for this entire race and one slip cost him. 

Felix Rosenqvist's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 12th (324 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 51
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 11
Average Start: 8.7647
Average Finish: 14.706

An Early Look Ahead
McLaren cannot afford another winless season. I like to use this word sparingly. This was a failure for McLaren. It has been talking a big game and making big waves in IndyCar for a handful of years. To not win a race, especially when a borderline inept Andretti Autosport won twice and a sluggish Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing won one and probably should have won twice, is a terrible look for a McLaren organization that believes it can be an IndyCar disruptor. 

In all fairness, in most seasons, McLaren would have won at least twice. It would have won the season opener and these words would never have been considered being typed into the World Wide Web. But for all the team's misses, there are plenty of shortcomings that should raise concerns for the organization. 

McLaren led a combined 50 laps in the final 11 races of the season. It led 203 laps in the first six races. That isn't a minor change in form. The three cars went from leading just over a quarter of all the laps run in the first six races to leading only 3.448% of the final 1,450 laps run in the season. 

Changes are already happening. Engineer Craig Hampson is leaving the organization. Gavin Ward has a new role. Tony Kanaan is sporting director. David Malukas has replaced Rosenqvist. McLaren has formed a strategic alliance with Juncos Hollinger Racing. McLaren hasn't been afraid to shake things up. It is almost a yearly occurrence for this team. It has all the resources to figure it out and find success, but it cannot afford to waste time. 

O'Ward should be fine. This was a blip, but as we have seen O'Ward can crack under the pressure. Rossi didn't come close to being the factor we expected him to be in year one with McLaren. With Hampson leaving, Rossi will be working with another new engineer. Malukas is puzzling. The Illinois-native has shown great bursts in IndyCar, but his sophomore season was a slight step back from his rookie year. I understand good performances at Texas and Gateway are worthy of attention but he also finished 20th or worse in eight of 17 races in 2023. 

McLaren is reeling from the Álex Palou news. This time a year ago we were thinking there was a chance Palou could be with McLaren in 2023 but it was 100% certain for 2024. Flash-forward and Palou turned back on McLaren to remain with Ganassi and now McLaren is suing the Catalan driver for over $20 million in damages. Things change quickly, and despite what anyone says, Malukas was far from the team's #1 option to fill out the 2024 lineup. 

There will be plenty to keep an eye on this offseason let alone when next season begins. The biggest legal case over IndyCar employment is constantly developing, and it involves the most recognized team name globally in IndyCar and the current champion. It will be more difficult to not hear the news than to keep up with the case. We will wait to see how that plays out, but based on its on-track form, McLaren cannot afford a legal case to cause any further distraction. 


Wednesday, October 11, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Andretti Autosport's 2023 Season

The seventh IndyCar Wrap-Up brings us to Andretti Autosport, which saw a slight change to its driver lineup for 2023, and about the same results as the year before. There were great days for the four-car organization, but Andretti Autosport continued to have woeful days where none of its cars were close to competitive, something that has become increasingly more common for this once championship-winning team.

Kyle Kirkwood
As a rookie, Kirkwood showed some pace with A.J. Foyt Racing but could not bring home the car and amass respectable finishes. The Foyt cars may have been lacking in overall quality, a problem that would not be the case at Andretti Autosport. Kirkwood was able to showcase the stunning ability we saw in the Road to Indy system, though it was far from a flawless season.

What objectively was his best race?
How about two victories? After finishing no better than tenth in his rookie season, Kirkwood won his third race of his sophomore season at Long Beach, and that first career victory came from his first career pole position. 

Not to out do himself, Kirkwood won four months later in Nashville, this one less a show of dominance, but rather better strategy as Kirkwood did not stop early under the first caution for David Malukas stopping off course. The pace allowed Kirkwood to stay ahead of those that did stop under that caution and he leapfrogged ahead of Scott McLaughlin in the middle of the race. Late cautions tightened up the field, but Kirkwood held on for his second career victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
Long Beach was fantastic. Kirkwood led 53 of 85 laps, a fair number of the laps but not a beat down. It was a smart drive as Kirkwood let Josef Newgarden control the second stint because Kirkwood knew he had the better tires for the longevity of that run. Kirkwood ended up re-taking the lead and pulling further away. There were plenty of opportunities for Kirkwood to get caught in traffic and lose ground, perhaps lose the lead, but he didn't put a wheel wrong.

What objectively was his worst race?
Kirkwood looked set to be in the mix at the finish of the Indianapolis 500. He was the best Andretti Autosport car and climbed into the top five. However, he was in the wrong place when Felix Rosenqvist spun back up the racetrack after Rosenqvist brushed the barrier on exit of turn one. The Swede clipped the American, shearing Kirkwood's left rear tire from the car and spinning the American out of the race. Instead of fighting to the finish, Kirkwood was out, classified in 28th after completing 183 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis is at the top, but two more should be mentioned, and both happened to be 15th-place results. 

St. Petersburg saw Andretti Autosport take three of the top five qualifiers. Kirkwood slid backward from the green flag and was never a factor while Romain Grosjean was one of the best drivers on track. It was an eventful race with Kirkwood after contact with Conor Daly and climbing over Jack Harvey's car. Somehow, he finished 15th, but it was disappointing. 

Kirkwood made an error on a restart at Toronto. He was the leading driver of the cars that stopped under the caution for Romain Grosjean getting in the barrier. At that point, it looked like Kirkwood had a chance to make it to the finish after that stop and was in position to possibly steal a victory. On that ensuing restart, Kirkwood spun Hélio Castroneves in the final corner, earning Kirkwood a penalty and ending any hope of victory. It might not have ended up as a victory had the contact been avoided, but Kirkwood was going to be challenging for a top five at worst.

Kyle Kirkwood's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 11th (352 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 88
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 5
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 11.647
Average Finish: 13.059

Colton Herta
With another offseason looking to Formula One behind him, Herta had a chance to put all the questions about his qualifications to bed and earn enough Super License points with a top three championship finish. However, Herta never came close to competing for the championship top three. He rarely competed for the top three in a race in what was a significant step back in his young career.

What objectively was his best race?
In Toronto, Herta went off strategy and was in position to be the leader as the race cycled after the caution for the Kirkwood-Castroneves contact, as Herta was set to stretch his fuel. However, Álex Palou passed Herta on the restart, meaning the race lead was not in the cards for Herta. 

Herta did have enough in the tank to still finish third after starting 14th.

What subjectively was his best race?
It really is Toronto in what was a letdown of a season for Herta. He had better pace than qualifying suggested. Changing weather conditions in qualifying relegated him down the grid. He had to do something different and the team gave him a strategy that earned him more positions.

What objectively was his worst race?
In Nashville, Herta attempted to go off strategy, but it did not pan out in his favor, and he was trapped in traffic for most of this race. Traffic kind of backed up Herta and led to an unforced error, Herta brushing the barrier. The damaged ended his race four laps from the finish in 21st.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There were plenty of ugly days for Herta, but he went winless after spending much of the previous offseason lobbying for an FIA Super License waiver to run in Formula One. He went winless after spending an entire winter saying he believed he should be in Formula One. This wasn't a winless season that saw him finish in the top five in all 17 races. This was a slightly better than mediocre season. 

Mid-Ohio was one of two races where Herta started on pole position, he led the first 26 laps but the team had the wrong tire strategy. That led to Herta chasing the entire race but constantly losing positions. Then he sped entering pit lane and that left him scraping to just make it back in the top ten. He ended up 11th.

Mid-Ohio might have been the dumbest race of Herta's season if it wasn't for Road America where he led 33 laps, but the team decided to bring Herta in for his final pit stop with 15 laps remaining. This put Herta into a massive fuel save stint and he went from leading to holding on to finish fifth. 

There were two glorious chances for victory, and Herta lost both because the team beat itself, something it has become all too good at.
 
Colton Herta's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 10th (356 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 78
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 5
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 8.8235
Average Finish: 11.471

Romain Grosjean
Year two with Andretti Autosport brought much excitement for Grosjean, as he continued to search for his first victory. The Frenchman was knocking on the door and had it in his grasp, however, this season will be remembered more for his inconsistency, as Andretti Autosport had three capable drivers but could not get all three firing on all cylinders in unison.

What objectively was his best race?
Grosjean had consecutive runner-up finishes this season. The first was at Long Beach behind teammate Kyle Kirkwood. Grosjean did not quite have what it took to defeat Kirkwood this day, but he was clearly in a good car and was worthy of second. 

The next race was Barber Motorsports Park and a fierce battle with Scott McLaughlin will be remembered for the ages. Grosjean made a daring pass on the outside of the penultimate corner to take the lead, but McLaughlin had better pace on the three-stop strategy and re-took the lead from Grosjean, holding on for victory. 

What subjectively was his best race?
It is likely the race we will remember the most for Grosjean all season, St. Petersburg. Grosjean had that race won. He and McLaughlin went at it and McLaughlin had been one of the best cars all race, but Grosjean looked better and at the end of the final pit cycle, it appeared Grosjean had done enough to leap ahead of McLaughlin and sail away to victory.

However, McLaughlin got the braking wrong into turn four on his out lap, and McLaughlin knocked Grosjean into the tires. If they both make it through that corner, Grosjean is leading and likely takes his first career IndyCar victory. Instead, the Frenchman was out of the race and distraught. It was a near-flawless drive. What went wrong was out of his control.

What objectively was his worst race?
For the second consecutive year, Grosjean had an accident in turn two at the Indianapolis 500. This time it came on lap 150, it was only the second caution of the race, and Grosjean ended up 30th. The race had not been going well for the Frenchman up to that point, and contact in the pit lane with his teammate Colton Herta had stymied both drivers' days up to that point.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There were a handful of disappointing result to pick from for Grosjean. Detroit might not be the first one on your radar, but this was a thrown away result he could not afford after all the promise the early races had shown. He should have had at least three podium finishes and four top five finishes in the first six races. After the Indianapolis result, Grosjean needed a good day. He was running a solid seventh before clipping the barrier. 

Detroit wasn't going to be a race victory. It was unlikely to be a top five, but this was a race where Grosjean just had to see the finish and bring the car home in one piece. It was more points dropped and confirmed what the tone of his season will be.

Romain Grosjean's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 13th (296 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 96
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 9.3529
Average Finish: 15.176

Devlin DeFrancesco
Expectations were much lower for DeFrancesco compared to his three teammates. His rookie season saw improvement toward the end of the year and he looked better in year two, but the pace was never on par with the rest of the organization. There was one big flash in the pan that quickly fizzled out, encapsulating the Canadian's two seasons with Andretti Autosport.

What objectively was his best race?
DeFrancesco avoided contact with competitors and the barrier in Detroit, allowing him to climb to a 12th-place finish from 17th starting position.

What subjectively was his best race?
Another race where DeFrancesco did nothing spectacular other than not making a mistake was Indianapolis where he finished 13th, completing all 200 laps. He did move up from 25th starting position but it was not a flashy drive, and he likely was gifted four to five spots due to other drivers being in accidents. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Slight contact with the barrier knocked the Canadian out of the Music City Grand Prix in Nashville. DeFrancesco was classified in 26th with only 65 laps completed.

What subjectively was his worst race?
You may think this was DeFrancesco's best race of the season, but in the August Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race, DeFrancesco pulled off what could be the pass of the year going from fifth to first in turn one. However, after leading the opening eight laps, six of which were under caution, DeFrancesco sunk like a rock and ended up finishing a lap down in 19th. This came after he unexpectedly qualified in the top five. 

For about a 15-minute period it looked like DeFrancesco was going to steal the show and take the most unthinkable victory in IndyCar history. I guess the magic was never meant to last that long. 

Devlin DeFrancesco's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 22nd (177 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 18.176
Average Finish: 19.706

An Early Look Ahead
Andretti Autosport, soon to be Andretti Global as the organization rebrands, is just a good team in IndyCar. There is nothing wrong with being a good team. Most teams on the grid strive to be what Andretti Autosport is at the moment, but Andretti Autosport was once a great team. 

I wrote last year that IndyCar's "Big Three" was a "Big Two" because it had surpassed a decade since Andretti Autosport's last championship. That remains the case, but Andretti Autosport has continued to win races even if championships have been lacking. It won two more races this season, one of only three teams with multiple victories this season along with, you guessed it, Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske. 

The problem is those victories are not signs of greater dominance. Kirkwood hit on two days when the car was in the zone, but it has become increasingly more common that none of the four Andretti cars will be in the picture. 

Andretti Autosport did not have a top five finisher in any of the final four races of the 2023 season. It didn't have a top five finisher in 12 of 17 races this past season. In ten races it had only one top ten finisher. Twice the team failed to have a top ten finisher. Only once did it have multiple top five finishers and in only three races did it have multiple top ten finishers. 

Those aren't great numbers and are not close to good enough to win a championship. 

We will see a shift in drivers again. Kirkwood and Herta remain with Marcus Ericsson joining the fold as the team has questions over whether or not it will continue as a three- or four-car operation. Add to it that Romain Grosjean has filed for arbitration after his contract extension was not be picked up for 2024. 

During the summer, there were reports Andretti Autosport wanted to strengthen its driver lineup, essentially acknowledging a four-car operation with DeFrancesco in the fourth machine was not enough to compete with Ganassi and Penske. Money could force the team to scale back, but the team's best option all along could have been sitting right in its lap. It is getting a capable driver with Ericsson, but Ericsson should be an addition to its three top drivers from 2023 and not a replacement in what could be a shrinking team. 

Kirkwood, Herta, Grosjean and Ericsson is a formidable lineup on paper. Three of the four are race winners and Grosjean arguably should already have one victory to his name. The drivers can only go as far as the team takes them, and when Andretti Autosport is off, all four cars are off. It has not been able to get two or three cars regularly in the top ten for a handful of seasons.

It seems almost certain Grosjean will be gone. A fourth Andretti entry becomes less likely with each passing day, but the last time Andretti Autosport only ran three full-time cars, it won its most recent championship. 

Such a turnaround feels far-fetched entering 2024. Kirkwood, Herta and Ericsson should all win a race on paper, but winning on the tarmac has become harder for Andretti Autosport in recent years. Herta was its only driver in the championship top ten and he was behind two Arrow McLaren entries and a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver. The issues are deeper at Andretti, and the distractions will only increase now that the FIA has approved its entry to Formula One with the next step being convincing the existing Formula One teams to let it compete. 

Kirkwood made a step in year-one with the team. He should grow from there. Herta went through three strategists in one season. Strategy has been a weak spot for Andretti Autosport for the last few seasons, but Kirkwood found a way to make it work with Bryan Herta calling the shots on his timing stand. Colton Herta must do the same with somebody. Three strategists a year is not a winning strategy.

Ericsson is a textbook good driver. The Swede puts the car in great positions and occasionally leads to victories, but while he has won four times in his IndyCar career, including winning an Indianapolis 500, he has yet to have a dominant day in IndyCar. While you hear his name frequently, the results are not sensational. He does have 50 top ten finishes in 80 starts, a solid batting average, but the biggest knock against Ericsson is 34 of those 50 top ten finishes are results from sixth to tenth. Good days, but rarely considered great days. 

Andretti Autosport should continue to be a good team as Andretti Global in 2024. Becoming a great team again will remain difficult.



Monday, October 9, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: IMSA Needs a New Points System

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Max Verstappen clinched the World Drivers' Championship on Saturday. Verstappen followed it up with a grand prix victory on Sunday from Qatar. Oscar Piastri won the sprint race, but does anyone really care? The Mercedes made contact. Marc Márquez will be going to Gresini Ducati next year. Something occurred for the first time in the 21st century. NASCAR had a cutoff race from Charlotte and there was a somewhat of a surprise winner. The 2024 Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year Kyle Larson is about to complete rookie orientation at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The IndyCar hybrid system is about to undergo its first test on the oval. Indianapolis just hosted an endurance race, but there is another endurance race on my mind and what it means to a championship.

IMSA Needs a New Points System
We are heading into the IMSA finale with a historic championship picture in GTP. 

Any of the top seven teams could win the championship in a championship that has seen eight cars compete in every race. It has been rather tight. Only two cars have won multiple times and only two cars have finished on the podium in more than three races. Five points cover the top three teams with the difference between finishing first and second being 30 points. Fourth is 38 points back! It is remarkable. Practically everyone has a shot at Petit Le Mans.

But let's be serious for a second. Seven of eight teams have a championship shot in the finale? 

IMSA did not change its points system long ago, but it needs another makeover.

Ahead of the 2021 season, IMSA multiplied its points distribution tenfold with a victory now awarding 350 points, 320 points to second with a 20-point decrease down to fifth where it becomes a ten-point decrease between positions. With the inflation of race points, IMSA started awarding what was race points for qualifying. Pole position earned 35 points, 32 points for second and each position gets a tenth of what a race finish would pay for that spot. 

It is too much. The #31 Whelen Engineering Cadillac leads with 2,460 points. There is no point in having the points total be that high for a nine-race championship. There is no reason pole position should be worth a tenth of a race victory. 

Even crazier is IMSA's points system pays down to 30th. Outside GTD, which has had car counts in the mid-teens for most of the season and exceeds 20 for the endurance races, there is no point in planning on paying points to a 19th-place finisher in any other class. 

GTP was at eight cars for most of the season. LMP2 has about seven or eight in every race. LMP3 was around eight to ten. GTD Pro never exceeded five cars at any of the non-endurance races. 

This points distribution combined with the class size has helped these championship pictures be as tight as they are. In GTP, a last-place finish for most of the seats in eighth is worth about 65.714% of a race victory. Finishing fourth is getting 80% of a victory. It is not hard to see how everyone has a chance at the championship. 

The points system does not prevent runaways. Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth only has to start the finale in the #14 Vasser Sullivan Lexus to take the GTD Pro title thanks to nine podium finishes and not finishing worse than fourth in the first ten races. Gar Robinson took the LMP3 championship with ease after winning four of the first five races and finishing second in the other. 

Clinching a championship early is not impossible, but if enough cars were entered in GTD Pro, Barnicoat and Hawksworth could be sweating bullets. If GTD Pro had GTD's car count, the championship could fall from the Vasser Sullivan Lexus duo. 

With most of these classes not exceed a dozen cars, there is a simple solution. 

Adopt the FIA championship points system.

25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1

It is easy. Everyone understands it. Most motorsports fans know it. If IMSA still wants to award a point for pole position, fine. I don't know how it wants to weigh its points for the endurance races, but IMSA currently doesn't weigh its points for endurance races, why change with this system? Plus, the Endurance Cup championships exist and they take into considering the duration of those four events. IMSA might already have it covered. 

Along with being digestible, the FIA championship points system values winning more. Second-place is only worth 72% of a victory, fourth is less than half of a victory and tenth is only worth 4%. In the current IMSA system, tenth is equal to 60% of a race victory, the equivalent of third in the FIA system. 

GTP is going to grow a little next year and we will likely see about ten cars full-time next year. Even if the class went to 12 or 13 cars, the FIA system works. LMP2 could be pushing 15 cars as LMP3 teams move into the class after LMP3 was removed from IMSA's top series. Even then, it is ok if a few teams do not score points. Should 14th really receive anything? 

GTD Pro could still be a question as it will likely stay below ten full-time cars, but wouldn't a race winner feel more valued knowing the sixth-place finisher only received 32% of its points total rather than 71.42%. 

That is how you make winning more valuable; by making finishing anywhere else worth less. 

How would things look in the pro classes in 2023 if IMSA had the FIA system? 

Not much different, but there would be slight variations.  

It would be one-point between the #6 Porsche leading on 105 points and the #31 Cadillac and the #60 MSR Acura would be third on 101 points. Taking into consideration the Meyer Shank Racing penalty after Daytona, I deducted the same proportion of points from the #60 Acura, which would have been about a 14-point deduction, meaning it would still get 11 points for its Daytona victory. 

The next three cars would be the #10 Acura on 99 points, the #25 BMW on 98 points and the #7 Porsche on 92 points. Those six cars would be mathematically eligible. The #01 Cadillac would be 25 points back of the #6 Porsche, but the #01 Cadillac would lose on tiebreaker as it could finish level on victories, but the #6 has more runner-up finishes. 

In GTD Pro, the #14 Lexus would still have to start the finale, but it could lose it. It has a 22-point lead one the #3 Corvette. Even the #79 WeatherTech Racing Mercedes-AMG would have a chance to win the championship as a victory would put it level with the #14 Lexus, and the #79 Mercedes-AMG would own the tiebreaker with four victories to the #14's two. 

IMSA should not feel ashamed if it took on a global points system. We do not need a special American points system just to be different. Frankly, the current system is inadequate for the current state of the series. Even if there were 25 full-time cars in each class, it would be inadequate. IMSA should want a system that produces its best champion. That means having first and second significantly outweigh finishing fifth, sixth, seventh and so on. 

This has been a fun season to watch, and in the inaugural season of this GTP class, each manufacturer has answered the bell and produced a competitive race car. But the championship point system should really separate the mighty from the strong. It doesn't quite do that, and at the end of the season, a few teams should stand above the rest with a title to decide. 

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

The #28 RS1 Porsche of Eric Filgueiras and Stevan McAleer clinched the GT World Challenge America championship with its fifth-place finish in the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

Zac Anderson clinched the GT4 America Silver Cup championship. Jason Hart and Matt Travis clinched the GT4 America Pro-Am Cup championship. 

Memo Gidley clinched the GT American championship by sweeping the weekend from Indianapolis. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, Oscar Piastri and Memo Gidley but did you know...

Shane van Gisbergen and Richie Stanaway won the 65th Bathurst 1000.

The #30 Team WRT BMW of Philipp Eng, Sheldon van der Linde and Dries Vanthoor won the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

The #92 Racing Vandals Racing BMW of Kenton Koch and Kevin Boehm and the #34 Conquest Racing/JMF Motorsport Mercedes-AMG of Michai Stephens and Jesse Webb split the GT4 America races from Indianapolis.

A.J. Allmendinger won the NASCAR race from Charlotte, his first victory since Indianapolis 2021. Sam Mayer won the Grand National Series race, his third victory of the season.

France won Motocross des Nations with riders Romain Febvre, Tom Vialle and Maxime Renaux on home soil in Ernée.

Coming Up This Weekend
Petit Le Mans.
MotoGP hopes for nice weather in Indonesia.
The GT World Endurance Challenge Europe Sprint Cup concludes its season in Zandvoort.
NASCAR begins its semifinal round in Las Vegas.
Super GT will be at Autopolis. 



Friday, October 6, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's 2023 Season

As we dip into the second half of IndyCar Wrap-Ups, we are starting to wade into race winners. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had all the pieces on paper to win races. On-track, the team wasn't quite getting it to click. It experienced some low points, and arguably hit rock-bottom at the worst time, and it even made a midseason driver change, but RLLR rallied, and showed it still had what it took to be a top team in IndyCar. What could have been a disastrous season turned into something promising.

Christian Lundgaard
Last season, Lundgaard was the top rookie and set high expectations for year two. The Dane avoided a sophomore slump, despite RLLR's struggles to show speed. Lundgaard drove above the car's capabilities and spent much of the season in the top ten of the championship. For all the team's shortcomings, it still got to experience the sweet taste of glory.

What objectively was his best race?
Lundgaard's first career victory came from pole position at Toronto. The Dane led 54 laps, but he was shuffled out of the lead with the timing of the Romain Grosjean caution in the middle of the race. Lundgaard made his final pit stop at that time while other stayed out. Many street course races have been lost this way, and Lundgaard went from a comfortable position to sitting in a hornet's nest.

At no point was Lundgaard shaken and he drove forward, putting himself in a position to take the lead when those who stayed out came in for their final pit stop.

What subjectively was his best race?
Unquestionably, it is Toronto. Lundgaard caught a break with qualifying in mixed conditions and it likely got him further up the grid then if the session had been completely dry. Once in position, Lundgaard shined. He was the best driver on this day and it was a surprise that the RLLR driver could be this dominant.

Beyond Toronto, Lundgaard should be commended for his consistency. For as tough as RLLR's season was made out to be, Lundgaard spent a good portion of the season ranked in the top ten of the championship. He was a regular top ten finisher. The RLLR problems were not made up, but Lundgaard performed better than the equipment under him.

What objectively was his worst race?
Hangovers happen. Six days after his first career victory, Lundgaard had his worst finish of the season when he finished 20th. Nothing bad happened but RLLR's deficiencies were on display at Iowa.

What subjectively was his worst race?
What makes Iowa worse is it is HyVee's big IndyCar weekend and for the second consecutive year the HyVee-sponsored car and team were not even close to competitive. The Toronto victory probably papered over any sorrow. The team entered its "home" race as winners and they could continue the party, but finishes of 20th and 13th were a slap back to reality.

Christian Lundgaard's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 8th (390 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 74
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 12.824
Average Finish: 10.529

Graham Rahal
Rahal experienced each end of the emotional spectrum during the 2023 season. Most of it was on the lower end in a season fraught with slow cars and accidents. He also lived every IndyCar driver’s worst nightmare at Indianapolis. However, despite the body blows taken, Rahal fought back and had great days, preserving to show he is still a competitive driver.

What objectively was his best race?
Rahal had the August race from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course won. Rahal had the best car. He led the most laps from pole position, but the only thing that kept him from victory was Scott Dixon pulling off an absurd strategy that only Scott Dixon could manage.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Rahal's runner-up result at the IMS road course. The entire RLLR organization ran terrifically in the two IMR road course races, but Rahal was the guy in the summer race. Nobody was close to him, other than Dixon when Dixon managed to run two 27-lap stints in the middle of the race to put him on a three-stop strategy and get him a seven-second lead over Rahal. 

But Rahal clawed back that gap only to fall just under a half-second short of victory. It was a race where Rahal did nothing wrong and it still didn't work out, which in a way is the best encapsulation of his season.

What objectively was his worst race?
How do you want to look at this? What is worse, your worst finish or not even qualifying for a race? Rahal did not qualify for the Indianapolis 500. RLLR could not find any speed for any of its four entries. In the last round qualifying session it was two RLLR cars against two Dale Coyne Racing entries. 

RLLR could not get its cars ahead of the DCR cars and it became Graham Rahal vs. Jack Harvey. It looked like Rahal would be set when Harvey did not have the speed on his second qualifying attempt, but inexplicably, Harvey went out immediately for a third attempt and found more speed despite no major changes to the set up and no significant changes to the weather. It left Rahal devastated on the outside. 

Rahal ended running the Indianapolis 500 when Stefan Wilson was injured in the Monday practice session, but failing to qualify was the worst moment of Rahal's IndyCar career.

In terms of his worst race result, Rahal brushed the wall exiting turn four in the first Iowa race and it knocked him out of the race, leaving him 28th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It doesn't get worse than failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500, but the woes continued in Detroit for Rahal, and he clipped the inside turn one barrier under caution to end his race. He was already running at the back and was not competitive, but that was brutal way to his race. 

Mid-Ohio should also be mentioned because though Rahal finished seventh, he qualified second and a pair of bad pit stops took him out of contention for a podium finish and a top five result. It isn't the same kind of pain as Indianapolis, Detroit and a few other races, but Mid-Ohio was his first showing of speed all season, and the team beat itself in this race.

Graham Rahal's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 15th (276 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 67
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 15.647
Average Finish: 15.706

Jack Harvey
It was a disappointing 2022 season for Harvey after moving to RLLR from Meyer Shank Racing. Pressure was elevated as RLLR looked to improve and saw great promise from Lundgaard. Harvey could not assert himself as a leader within the team, and even when he had speed, he was still trailing his teammates by a good margin. The final result of his season became inevitable, and a decision was made before we even made it to the finale.

What objectively was his best race?
Harvey was 13th at Long Beach. He was the top finishing RLLR entry in that race.

What subjectively was his best race?
That final qualifying attempt at Indianapolis is a thing of legend and it will be mentioned for years to come, but Harvey followed it up in the race. It wasn't an impressive day. The RLLR cars were not much better in the race, but Harvey ended up the best finishing RLLR car in the Indianapolis 500 and he got up to 18th. This race could have been much worse. He didn't quite get into the top half of the field, but he didn't embarrass himself either.

What objectively was his worst race?
An error on the first lap after a restart at Road America saw Harvey spin off in turn three and lead to a 26th-place finish.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There are two that stand out. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May and Toronto. 

Those were two races where RLLR showed speed across all three cars. Harvey qualified eighth in the first IMS road course race. However, while Lundgaard stayed in the top five and Rahal stayed in the top ten, Harvey spun off and cost himself many positions, ending up 20th. At Toronto, Harvey didn't have the speed of Lundgaard, neither did Rahal frankly, but Harvey caused the opening corner accident and took out a few other cars.

On the days when RLLR was at its best, Harvey didn't shine, and that is costly. The August IMS road course race was a good day for him. An engine penalty dropped him from eighth to 14th on the grid, but he still finished 14th, however it was too little too late and that ended up being his final race for the organization.

Jack Harvey's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 24th (146 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 3
Average Start: 19.714
Average Finish: 19.643

Jüri Vips
After Harvey was relieved of his duties in the #30 Honda, RLLR filled the final three races with Conor Daly running at Gateway and finishing 16th, and Vips, a veteran of Formula Two who tested for RLLR during the offseason, was placed in the car for the final two races.

What objectively was his best race?
Vips' best finish was 18th at Portland, where he was set behind early after a long pit stop trapped him a lap down in the second stint. Vips kept the pace and still finished 18th right where he started this race, a lap down, but the top finishing rookie after Marcus Armstrong's botched pit stop late.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is a qualifying session because Vips wound up seventh in qualifying at Laguna Seca, 0.0467 seocnds shy of advancing to the Fast Six in his second IndyCar appearance. Unfortunately for Vips, he had to serve a six-spot grid penalty for the #30 Honda taking on its sixth engine this season, knocking him down to 13th on the grid, and putting him in a poor position at the start.

What objectively was his worst race?
Due to the six-spot grid penalty, Vips found himself in the ripe position to be speared when Marcus Armstrong spun Graham Rahal into Vips in turn two on the opening lap. Vips' car was repaired, but Laguna Seca became an extended test session, and he finished 24th, 24 laps down.

What subjectively was his worst race?
If there is one positive from Vips' two IndyCar outings it is we didn't get to see what he could actually do because of things out of his control. It is sad we didn't get to see him get a shot to complete a race without any hurdles, but neither result was Vips' fault. There is the encouragement of his speed from practice and qualifying and he has been closer to Lundgaard. Vips has done enough for this experiment to continue.

Jüri Vips' 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 33rd (18 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 15.5
Average Finish: 21

An Early Look Ahead
We were kind of in this same position with RLLR last year, optimistic for the future after a number of close calls and believing RLLR was set to take a step forward. 

Of course, we know it wasn't that simple in 2023, though RLLR did take a step forward this season. It took a long way to move forward, and there are still areas where the team must improve. 

RLLR had it figured out on most road courses and most street courses. There were a few where the team struggled. Ovals remain RLLR's greatest flaw. It didn't have speed at any of them. Didn't matter if it was the high speed ovals of Texas or Indianapolis. Didn't matter if it was Iowa or Gateway. For five races you could pencil in RLLR's three cars in the back half of the field. You don't need to win all the oval races to be champion, but you cannot be near the bottom in every oval race. 

The pieces are there for RLLR to be something special. Lundgaard ended up eighth in the championship this season and for much of 2023 we viewed this as a bad year for the organization. If this was a bad year, what would a good year look like? Lundgaard can be the future for RLLR. At 22 years old, he could be the piece RLLR builds around. If RLLR can find some consistency, Lundgaard might feel compelled to remain with the team long term and not jump if Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing comes calling. 

Graham Rahal looked defeated for much of this season, but on his best days Rahal showed he still has top-tier talent. It was eight years ago Rahal went to the finale with a chance at the championship despite RLLR being a single-car team. When you think about who has challenged for championships over the last decade, there have not been many drivers from teams other than Penske, Ganassi and Andretti Autosport to go to the wire. Rahal has not completely lost that ability, and he will only be 35 years old at the start of next season. 

RLLR arguably should have won two races this season. If all the pieces are in the right place, it could have two title challengers in its stable. 

The third seat is not confirmed, but it feels like it is Vips for the taking. Vips has been a contemporary of Lundgaard's for most of their careers. Vips and Marcus Armstrong were teammates in multiple locations in the European junior series. Vips beat Armstrong almost everywhere they went. RLLR could have two of the biggest steals in recent rookie driver signings, and it could signal a turn in driver signings across IndyCar. These drivers weren’t Red Bull junior drivers, Ferrari Driver Academy members and Alpine development drivers respectively. 

RLLR knew entering 2023 it had work to do. It didn't quite make the right corrections. It doesn't feel like that is going to happen again. However, improvements do not mean race victories. Sniffing the top ten would be a substantial leap forward for RLLR on ovals. It should keep Lundgaard in the top ten and maybe get Rahal back up there. 

A championship is still a long way away, but RLLR ended 2023 heading in the right direction when it appeared to be on the verge of sliding further from desired glory.


Wednesday, October 4, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2023 Season

We conclude the first half of IndyCar Wrap-Ups with Ed Carpenter Racing. Things did not get better for ECR in 2023. Though its championship finish was right where the team has since the departure of Josef Newgarden, this felt like one of the team's worst seasons in IndyCar. This was the first time in the team's 12-season history it did not score a single top five finish. With poor results came midseason changes, but they did not make much of a difference.

Rinus VeeKay
VeeKay began his fourth IndyCar season, fourth with ECR, in 2023. Each of his first three seasons were highlighted with flashes of brilliance, but overall results left him solidly in the middle of the field. He had finished 12th in the championship in the previous two seasons. There was not an upward swing in year four.

What objectively was his best race?
It was Portland where VeeKay finished sixth and spent much of the race in the top ten despite starting 13th. VeeKay was keeping pace with the likes of Josef Newgarden and running better than Marcus Ericsson. Portland also fell in a good final stretch of the season for the Dutchman as he had finished 11th in the previous two races and had not finished better than 12th in the seven races prior. 

What subjectively was his best race?
VeeKay was tenth in the Indianapolis 500 after leading 24 of the first 63 laps, but it was a recovery drive after VeeKay made contact with Álex Palou exiting the pit lane and it knocked both cars out of the top ten and VeeKay had a penalty to overcome as well. 

There were not many great days for Rinus VeeKay this season, and Portland and the Indianapolis 500 are the only bright spots, though his own error at Indianapolis did dull the shine on it. This could have been a much better result, and a lack of patience cost him. Tenth is even flattering when you consider a handful of drivers that dropped out of the race late were running in the top ten at the time. This easily could have been a 13th or 14th place finish and no praise would be sung for such a result. 

What objectively was his worst race?
A mechanical failure ended his Long Beach race after only 48 laps, placing him in 26th. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is the Indianapolis 500 because it is the only track Ed Carpenter Racing has figured out, or perhaps more accurately, cares about. The team has given up being competitive everywhere else for the Indianapolis 500, and so far the team has never won the race and really only gotten close once. In four years, VeeKay has shown he is more than capable of handling the car in qualifying. He has never started worse than fourth, but he has lost composure in the race each time. If he cannot at least keep the car in contention, I don't know how long ECR will keep him on.

Rinus VeeKay's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (277 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 24
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 15.353
Average Finish: 14.706

Conor Daly
This was always going to be a make-or-break season for Daly. After having only two top ten finishes in his previous 38 starts entering 2023, Daly was going to have to show some improvement this season to warrant retention moving forward. Unfortunately, Daly's results continue to lag behind his teammate, and he didn't even make it through the season with ECR.

What objectively was his best race?
How about an eighth-place finish in the Indianapolis 500? Unlike his top ten result in this race the year before, Daly didn't show stellar pace, but he was in a good position when other cars falter to wind up in the top ten.

What subjectively was his best race?
Indianapolis is his only good day, but it is hard to celebrate it considering what happened before and what came next.

What objectively was his worst race?
Daly was 25th at Barber Motorsports Park, a lead lap finish but miles from contending from anything to brag about.

What subjectively was his worst race?
How about the race that led to him being fired? Starting and finishing 15th at Detroit isn't what cost him his job, but it was Daly's final act at ECR. The ride was lost after having four results of 19th or worse in the first five races. It was one top five finish and three top ten finishes in 46 starts with the team since 2020. It was never finishing better than 17th in the championship. The end was a culmination, not one sharp break.

Conor Daly's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 25th (88 of 134 points with Ed Carpenter Racing)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 20.545
Average Finish: 18

Ryan Hunter-Reay
With Daly gone, ECR turned to a veteran in an attempt to steady the ship. After spending 2022 on the sidelines, Hunter-Reay made his first IndyCar appearances in over a year in May at Indianapolis with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. With no other plans, Hunter-Reay took a role with ECR and ended up running the remaining ten races. It was clear ECR's problems were deeper than the drivers.

What objectively was his best race?
After a grueling deputy role for Ed Carpenter Racing, Hunter-Reay ended his season with a tenth-place finish at Laguna Seca. Laguna Seca was such a messy race that this felt like more a top ten result out of survival than raw pace.

What subjectively was his best race?
Ironically, it was Hunter-Reay's one race not with Ed Carpenter Racing, the Indianapolis 500 driving for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Hunter-Reay spent the entire race in the middle of the field ticking off laps. Then the events of the closing laps saw Hunter-Reay leading as a red flag came out. Instead of attempting to stretch fuel, Hunter-Reay did get a splash, but he still drove up to an 11th-place finish, an admirable result for a one-off entry.

 It wasn't a spectacular day, but it was Hunter-Reay getting into a car and getting the job done. He didn't overdrive the car and waste the opportunity. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing is a measured operation and the team and driver meshed to pull off something respectable.

What objectively was his worst race?
At Toronto, Hunter-Reay was hit from the inside when Jack Harvey slid into turn one. Hunter-Reay collided with Tom Blomqvist, and all three drivers were out of the race right then and there on lap one. In Hunter-Reay's case, he was classified in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nothing good happened at Ed Carpenter Racing for Hunter-Reay. Any hope that Hunter-Reay would be the spark to lift ECR in the second half of the season were dashed quickly. The issues at ECR were always deeper than the driver. Hunter-Reay was not a magician that could take a team struggling to crack 15th into a regular top ten finisher. It was tough to watch. A returning driver with nothing to prove but hoping to show he still has it and a team that once was a sleeping giant that now merely has one trick up its sleeve and cannot even pull that one off.

Ryan Hunter-Reay's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (131 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 22.091
Average Finish: 18.273

Ed Carpenter
In his tenth season as an oval-only driver, Carpenter had five chances to get a victory. He was also approaching ten years since his most recent victory when it appeared this oval-only role could be rather rewarding for him. Instead, he entered 2023 off the back of a season where his best finish was 13th. In the previous three seasons, he had only two top ten finishes in 15 races. This year ended up being more of the same.

What objectively was his best race?
In an unremarkable drive, Carpenter ended up 13th in the Texas race, the first oval race of the season and Carpenter's first of five starts.

What subjectively was his best race?
Texas is really the only race Carpenter has to boost about, and it wasn't that good.

What objectively was his worst race?
Carpenter was seven laps down in 24th in the first Iowa race. He was also 24th and six laps down at Gateway, a race where he ran over the back of Benjamin Pedersen at the start. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
The only race Ed Carpenter cares about is the Indianapolis 500, and he was caught in the final accident that ended his race three laps early and placed him in 20th. He was never a factor in this race. He could not keep up with VeeKay. ECR had the speed. Carpenter didn't. 

He also wasted a fourth starting position in the second Iowa race to finish 23rd, four laps down.

Ed Carpenter's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 30th (46 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 16.2
Average Finish: 20.8

An Early Look Ahead
Does anybody want Rinus VeeKay? Because it is hard to imagine he will make it to year six with Ed Carpenter Racing. Next year will be year five, and VeeKay is set for an ECR return, but at what point does this partnership run its course? 

VeeKay just turned 23 years old, but I am sure he will not want to spend the second half of his 20s fighting to finish 14th in the championship every year like he has spent for all of his 20s so far. 

We know at his highest level he can win races and compete at the front. It wasn't that long ago he, Álex Palou and Patricio O'Ward all had their first career victory within five races of one another, and there were questions about which young driver, along with Colton Herta, you would like the most going forward. Those other three are with higher ranked teams. VeeKay is with the smallest of the bunch, and with championship finishes of 14th, 12th, 12th and 14th I think we know exactly what the VeeKay-ECR partnership can do. 

Prior to VeeKay, ECR's best championship finisher from 2017 to 2019 was 15th, 14th and 14th. VeeKay has lived up to ECR's level. Does anyone see more in him? Nobody saw enough in his predecessor Spencer Pigot, though Pigot never won a race.    

ECR already has one seat it has to worry about filling. Hunter-Reay will not be back. The team tested Oliver Askew, who last competed in IndyCar in the 2021 Long Beach season finale and has not raced in anything since August 14, 2022, the Seoul Formula E season finale, and Christian Rasmussen, the 2023 Indy Lights champion. 

Askew's IndyCar career was brief. Who was the last IndyCar driver to wind up on the sidelines for multiple years, and then return and be the stalwart for a team that won races? It has been a long time since that career path has worked for anybody. Coincidentally, Ryan Hunter-Reay is probably the last driver to match that career path, but that was over 15 years ago now, and Hunter-Reay had already won multiple races despite the lengthy absence from competition. 
 
Rasmussen is ready for the move up to the next level. ECR has a history of hiring from Indy Lights. It has worked with VeeKey. It didn't quite yield desired results with Pigot. Rasmussen was the best driver in Indy Lights this year and pulled away late in the season, but this was far from the deepest Indy Lights grid. 

Of course, ECR could go in an entirely different direction. There are plenty of European-based drivers looking for work. 

As for the team's namesake, Ed Carpenter hasn't finished better than 13th in the past two seasons. It has been over ten years since he won a race. Carpenter turns 43 years old March 3, 2024. We are at the point where Carpenter should consider just showing up at Indianapolis. There is no point in wheeling out a third car just to maybe finish in the top fifteen. Let's see how 2024 goes, but no improvement should change the allocation of resources for the oval races. Indianapolis is still an option for the next half-decade, but we have enough of a data sample on the oval-only experiment. 

The only thing we should be confident about with ECR heading into next year is it will likely have a bunch of unanswered questions in about 365 days as well. This team is two years away from stability, and even that seems like wishful thinking.  


Monday, October 2, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: I Will Say it Forever

Here is rundown of what got me thinking...

Apple could be considering paying Formula One a significant sum of money. MotoGP had a rainy day tighten up its championship in Japan. The World Superbike Championship set up its final act for the championship. Sebastian Vettel may be coming to a sports car race near you. The World Rally Championship made a spring trip to Chile. We were about 0.012 seconds away from having a devastating conclusion to the NASCAR Cup race from Talladega. IndyCar's entire marketing and promotional departments must attend a social studies class, but cultural ignorance is not the current series gripe we are tackling. 

I Will Say it Forever
The days following the 2024 IndyCar schedule release drew a range of reactions. 

Anger, optimism, a great conversation on Trackside, existential dread. Many, if not all, were understandable. There was always going to be a reaction. It was always going to be strong reaction once it became clear Texas would not be returning to the schedule. Losing a track will always make somebody upset. That is a reasonable expectation. 

Unfortunately, another reasonable expectation when an IndyCar schedule is released somebody is going to pin the blame or a responsibility on the fans, and we had that again this week. 

As Off-Track with James Hinchcliffe and Alexander Rossi went over the 2024 schedule, the inclusion of Milwaukee in the context of IndyCar's oval problem led Rossi saying it was on the fans to attend the race if they want oval races to succeed.

This is a common mantra in IndyCar over the last 15 years as ovals have decreased and struggled to survive. It is sad such a misguided statement continues to be made and now drivers chirp. 

No, no, no. Don't make being an IndyCar fan a responsibility. Don't make it the responsibility of someone living in Dayton, Ohio to make sure Phoenix is a success or somebody in Atlanta, Georgia to make sure Milwaukee breaks even. Nobody should feel obligated to travel across the country to make sure an IndyCar race succeeds. 

If IndyCar wants a race to succeed, it should make sure it works in its own market. 

It isn't on the IndyCar fans in Walla Walla, Washington, Montpelier, Vermont and Grand Rapids, Michigan for the demise of the Texas Motor Speedway race. It is on IndyCar and Texas Motor Speedway for the demise of the Texas race. 

Texas Motor Speedway isn't in a hidden corner of the world. It is located in the second-most populous state in the United States and in the fourth-largest metropolitan area. Over 7.5 million people live in Dallas-Forth Worth area. About 6.5 million people live within 50 miles of Texas Motor Speedway. Expand that to 250 miles, which encompasses Austin, Texas, part of Houston, Texas and extends just beyond Tulsa, Oklahoma, and 21.1 million people are caught in that net. 

There are plenty of people in Texas Motor Speedway's market that there is no reason why it struggles to draw a crowd at any of its races. Let's just take the 6.5 million people in the 50-mile radius. If only one-percent of the locals show up, that is 65,000 people before anyone decides to fly in and make it a destination race. If 65,000 people show up to any IndyCar race it would easily be in the top five best attended races, and there would be no way that race would not be retained on the schedule. 

The expectation should not be on the same 20,000 people to attend every race. If you have the same 20,000 people at every race, then you have only 20,000 fans, and you are not a healthy series. 

There are millions of people IndyCar and the tracks are missing within those communities. A race like Texas should never depend on travelers from outside the state. That should be gravy while the local crowd makes the race stable. 

Milwaukee will be no different, and it really shouldn't be any different. If about 50,000 people are going an hour north of Milwaukee to Road America each year, there is no reason why IndyCar should be depending on those from Tupelo, Mississippi, Butte, Montana and Aberdeen, Maryland for Milwaukee's return to be a success. 

As IndyCar descends deeper into a cult mindset, the perception that it is the fans' fault for a race that fails continues to spreads. From series officials to track owners to team owners to drivers and now to other fans. 

Nope. That isn't going to happen here because a series failure is on the series. Races failing is on the series. It should be pointing the finger at itself and look at what it is doing wrong, why it cannot connect with people that live in the areas they race at to draw them out the one weekend a year IndyCar visits. 

IndyCar doesn't need 20,000 superfans who will drive north of 300 miles five times a year to attend races in multiple states. It needs about one million fans who casually watch and enjoy, know the drivers but are not obsessed with the drivers, and see that the series will be about a 90-minute drive away and make plans to attend in April or June or August. 

If one million people attend the 16 IndyCar races that weren't the Indianapolis 500, that would be an average of 62,500 spectators at each race. Roger Penske would bite your handoff to average 62,500 people attending every other IndyCar race. Milwaukee can hold a little more than half of 62,500 people. 

That is what IndyCar should strive for as success. It should stop going to ovals and then raise its hands and think the job is done, believing this is Field of Dreams and "if you built it, they will come." The series has to get within these markets and try to build causal followings, making connections that leads people to want to attend when the series visits once a year. 

The fact IndyCar hasn't realized this after a decade of disappearing events is staggering. It should have reached that breaking point after Fontana went away or maybe after Phoenix or perhaps after Pocono was dropped despite having a decent crowd by IndyCar's standards. It is very possible the series missed its chance to change the scheduling philosophy with the pandemic and work harder on market research to determine what markets wants IndyCar to visit and are willing to attend. 

It is never too late, but IndyCar has definitely wasted time. What it should no longer waste time doing is pinning blame on the minuscule number of people already supporting that series. Nothing says "thank you" more than "it is your fault." 

I will say it forever, a fan should never feel responsible for attending races. If you like IndyCar and consider yourself a fan, it is not your duty to attend races. Never feel like you are less of a fan if you do not attend any races. That is never the case. 

You should attend races because you want to and can practically make it work. Never feel like you must book airplane tickets and a hotel to make a trip across country. If you want to make a trip for a race, go ahead, but don't feel pressure that you must go to Milwaukee or Iowa or Detroit or Nashville. If you can only make one race practically work, attend that one race. It is on the series to make the rest work. 

There are plenty of people out there for IndyCar to promote itself to and draw people to its events. If it cannot do better than the same 20,000 people the series is at fault for its own failure.

Champions From the Weekend

Nicolò Bulega clinched the World Supersport championship with his victory and runner-up finish to Stefano Manzi at Portimão.

The #88 AKKodis ASP Team Mercedes-AMG of Raffaele Marciello, Jules Gounon and Timur Boguslavskiy clinched the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup championship with a fifth-place finish at Barcelona. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Nicolò Bulega and Stefano Manzi, but did you know...

Jorge Martín won MotoGP's rain-shortened Japanese Grand Prix, his third victory of the season. Martín also won the sprint race. Somkiat Chantra won the Moto2 race. Jaume Masià won the Moto3 race, his second consecutive victory. 

Ryan Blaney won the NASCAR Cup race from Talladega, his second victory of the season. Brett Moffatt won the Truck race. 

The #51 AF Corse - Francorchamps Motors Ferrari of Nicklas Nielsen, Alessio Rovera and Robert Shwartzman won the 3 Hours of Barcelona.

Álvaro Bautista swept the World Superbike races from Portimão.

Ott Tänak won Rally Chile, his second victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
The 65th Bathurst 1000.
The fourth Indianapolis 8 Hour.
Formula One's sprint weekend in Qatar. 
NASCAR runs Charlotte's infield road course.