Monday, November 11, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: The New Relationship

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

It was a light weekend. Prema confirmed its IndyCar lineup. Sauber hired a Brazilian. Red Bull tested a world champion. Formula E tested as its season opener is less than a month away. MotoGP has a new home for its finale. Lamborghini is possibly leaving the FIA World Endurance Championship across the board, Hypercar and GT3. Joey Logano won his third NASCAR Cup Series championship with a victory in Phoenix. However, with the NASCAR season completed, this is a chance to look into 2025 and what will be different, at least over the first few months of the season, as NASCAR and IndyCar will share a new home.

The New Relationship
It has been two months since the IndyCar season ended, and there are still around four months until the 2025 season opener from St. Petersburg. One-third of the offseason down, two-thirds to go. 

When IndyCar does return, it will be on a new network in the United States, as Fox takes over from NBC in what is a multi-year deal. All 17 IndyCar races are scheduled to air on network television, a first for the series. It will also be a continuation of sorts, as there will be a familiar, shared partner on the Fox family of networks. 

Unlike the previous decade where the second half of the IndyCar season saw it and NASCAR share a television partner, IndyCar and NASCAR will share a television partner for the spring portion of the season rather than the summer portion. 

With NBC, we saw IndyCar and NASCAR races sometimes strategically scheduled to allow one to lead into another, whether it be Mid-Ohio ahead of the NASCAR Cup race on the Chicago streets or a Loudon Xfinity race leading into a Saturday night race from Iowa. It wouldn't always go as planned. IndyCar's 2018 season finale from Sonoma saw the opening lap missed due to the Cup race from Las Vegas running long. The thought was there though.  

There would be promotion for both series during each other's races. There were years when NASCAR would run at Daytona on Saturday night and push an IndyCar race the following afternoon. For a few seasons, the Bristol night race would be the night before IndyCar at Pocono. It was a home for motorsports and it did its best to make sure the rising tide lifted all boats, making sure motorsports fans knew where to watch the action. 

Moving to Fox, the door is open for this continuing, and it likely will. We have already seen IndyCar present on some Fox properties. In the days after the announcement of the 2026 Grand Prix of Arlington, a promo for the Indianapolis 500 was on the Dallas Cowboys broadcast. An IndyCar show car was used during Fox's college football pregame show. These are minor things but a start. When NASCAR season begins, there should be more of the same. 

It will be interesting to see how NASCAR is used to promote IndyCar. For starters, there is less crossover, and this partnership comes at a changing time on the NASCAR media landscape. While the opening portions of the season will align, only five IndyCar races will take place during Fox's portion of the NASCAR schedule, as Fox's new contract with NASCAR only covers through the All-Star Race on May 18. They fell a year late on what would have been an incredible day of motorsports with the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 taking place on the same network. Next year's Coca-Cola 600 will be the first NASCAR Cup race on Amazon Prime.

There is also less NASCAR that will be on Fox airwaves this spring. Outside of the Daytona 500 and the All-Star race, practice and qualifying will be on Amazon Prime during that time of the year. NASCAR's second division will be entirely on the CW and have no presence on Fox. The Truck Series is still there, but there will be fewer NASCAR windows for an IndyCar promo to fall in. If NASCAR viewers are scattered to the wind next year, they are not going to be seeing anywhere near as many possible IndyCar promos as they would have last year or at any point over the last decade.

Five races are not many, but that is more than none. However, as we saw with NBC, just because the same network has both series does not mean races will not be scheduled against one another. Fox has multiple sports properties. It doesn't just have IndyCar and NASCAR. In the springtime, it still has college basketball. It has spring football with the UFL. IndyCar and NASCAR aren't just working around each other but around all those other properties as well. What might seem obvious might not be practical in practice. 

We saw with NBC IndyCar races and NASCAR races occurring simultaneously on its family of networks, whether that be an IndyCar race starting at 2:00 p.m. on NBC and a NASCAR Cup race starting at 2:30 p.m. on USA or vice versa. IndyCar has the favorable spot of network Fox, but that doesn't mean a Cup race will not be happening at the same time on FS1. 

Time is finite. There are only one or two golden windows for viewership, and they are the same for all properties. The best time to show both races could be the same time. In that case, it is a real possibility we will see both series running simultaneously again, even if we think that doesn't make any sense.

We should also remember that NASCAR is NASCAR. IndyCar might have it in its contract that all of its races will be on Fox, but NASCAR still draws three times the average viewers. As much as people celebrate noon start times if it avoids going head-to-head with a Cup race, we have also seen noon starts not provide an increase in viewership and also see a decrease in attendance at the circuit. Look at the final few races held at Texas Motor Speedway when the local start time was 11:00 a.m. Look at what happened at the second race of the Iowa doubleheader last year. 

There will be favorable windows for IndyCar, but there also is a good chance there will be a weekend or two where scheduling is not putting IndyCar on a pedestal. That is a nature of the business and until IndyCar increases its average viewership significantly, it will take a few lumps along the way. 

Though there are five shared weekends, four see both series running on the same day. Those are March 2 (St. Petersburg/Austin), March 23 (Thermal/Homestead), April 13 (Long Beach/Bristol) and May 4 (Barber/Texas). The Grand Prix of Indianapolis takes place on May 10, a day before the Cup race from Kansas. There is a Truck race scheduled for May 10 from Kansas. 

If we are looking at the schedule and know how start times are historically assigned, there are probably going to be at least two if not three weekends where the two series will be happening simultaneously. Ten of the first 13 Fox Cup races this year had a 3:00 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. start time. That is problematic for Thermal and Long Beach, two IndyCar races that are likely not starting any earlier than 3:00 p.m. Even Barber usually has a slightly later start time in the Central Time Zone. 

Let's just keep this in mind now before we find out the actual start times. 

If there is anywhere this synergy will help it is the Indianapolis 500. The Indianapolis 500 will be promoted during NASCAR races. That hasn't happened pretty much ever. At least not since 2000 when ESPN and ABC broadcasted eight of the first 11 Cup races that season. While IndyCar and NASCAR had shared partners in ABC/ESPN and NBC, those were during the back half of the season. Fox has had a stranglehold on the first four-plus months of the Cup season since 2001, and until 2025 Fox hasn't had a reason to give the Indianapolis 500 the time of day. 

With the Coca-Cola 600 going to Prime, the Indianapolis 500 will be the final big race on network television on Memorial Day weekend. ABC/ESPN will broadcast the Monaco Grand Prix in the morning (and likely re-air it during the afternoon), but after the Indianapolis 500, there will not be the Coca-Cola 600 on Fox. I think there is understandable skepticism over how NASCAR will do on Prime. We have seen Thursday Night Football be a success for Prime, but the NFL and NASCAR are two different beasts. People flock to the NFL. NASCAR has had an aversion to streaming and its fanbase has not embraced it with open arms. 

There is a chance the Indianapolis 500 gets a boost because there is a portion of viewers who will not be able to watch the NASCAR race from Charlotte and they decide they will spend their afternoon watching Indianapolis before going out in the evening and forgo watching the NASCAR race altogether. 

However, the Indianapolis 500 is not the problem. IndyCar doesn't have an issue getting viewers for the Indianapolis 500. That is its only healthy race. We have seen a healthy Indianapolis 500 does not equal a healthy IndyCar Series, and that is where IndyCar needs to see a boost. IndyCar needs a significant increase everywhere else. A flat Indianapolis 500 rating with every other race getting double what the average is currently would be a massive success for the series. There might be some disappointed if the Indianapolis 500 does not get a better number, but IndyCar needs 16 races growing and one remaining stagnant versus one race marginally growing and 16 races remaining stagnant. 

That will take more than just having two or three promos during NASCAR broadcasts. Hopefully the series understands that. Once NASCAR is done with its Fox portion of the season, IndyCar is losing its pair of shoulders to stand on. There is Major League Baseball, but there isn't another property that gets you excited about promotion. Outside of the Super Bowl in February, there is going to be no NFL help. The UFL season ends before IndyCar reaches its halfway point. There is some soccer and the NHRA, but neither of those are going to be doing much for IndyCar. If there is any saving grace it is the 2025 season finale from Nashville falls on the opening weekend of the college football season, but at that point it will feel like too little too late. If you haven't watched any IndyCar to that point, you will need a damn good reason to start with the finale from a nondescript track 40 minutes outside the city it claims to be in.

This is stuff IndyCar will have to work through. It is natural stuff when it comes to a new relationship. It is not all sunshine and rainbows. No matter where you go and who you partner with, at some point you will need to work through some rough patches. It is best to acknowledge those now and limit the number of surprises later.

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Joey Logano, but did you know...

Justin Allgaier clinched the NASCAR Grand National Series championship with a runner-up finish at Phoenix, his first career championship.

Ty Majeski clinched the NASCAR Truck Series with a victory at Phoenix, his first career championship.

Sho Tsuboi clinched the Super Formula championship with a pair of runner-up finishes from Suzuka.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about a few champions, but did you know...

Riley Herbst won the Grand National Series race from Phoenix, his second victory of the season.

Kakunoshin Ohta swept the Super Formula races from Suzuka, his first two career victories.

Coming Up This Weekend
Supercars concludes at Adelaide.
The MotoGP title will be determined in Barcelona, a replacement venue for Valencia after the recent flooding in the area.


Thursday, November 7, 2024

Career Retrospective: Mark Blundell

Our Career Retrospective series returns for a fourth year, as we have another batch of past IndyCar drivers to consider. We will look at a few drivers and how they ended up in IndyCar, what they did while competing in the series and how the series changed between the driver's first appearance and today. 

There is another theme in this year's set of drivers. It might not seem obvious, but it will become obvious once we get to the end.

The first part of this three-part series will be on a name who is tied to some famous IndyCar moments, but does not get considering as one of the best of his time. The talent was there and he made waves, but arriving during The Split, this driver did not receive the same exposure had there been one series. He also never raced in the Indianapolis 500. Though he did not light up the record books, he earned the respect of his fellow competitors.

It is Mark Blundell.

Where was Blundell coming from?
Blundell had already spent over a decade climbing the European ladder system, starting in his native United Kingdom. 

Using Formula Ford 2000 success to launch into Formula Three, he quickly was in International Formula 3000, but Blundell did not make a name for himself there. Results were not spectacular and he did not get a shot at Formula One. His big break came in sports cars.

Blundell joined the Nissan Motorsports program in the World SportsCar Championship. Results were good against the Sauber-Mercedes and Silk Cut Jaguar operations, and Blundell took pole position for the 1990 24 Hours of Le Mans, over six seconds clear of the next fastest car. Unfortunately, the Nissan R90CK could not go the distance and retired from the race. 

While running for Nissan, Brabham took on a testing role with Williams F1. For the 1991 season, Blundell co-opted his testing role with a race seat at Brabham. Teamed with Martin Brundle and strapped with a Yamaha engine, the entire team struggled for competitiveness. Blundell retired from nine of 16 races, did not qualify once and failed to pre-qualify for the Japanese Grand Prix. Blundell did score a point in the Belgian Grand Prix. Brundle only scored two points all season, both coming from fifth at Suzuka. 

Blundell was not retained for the 1992 season, and he stepped away from the Williams testing role to focus on getting a full-time seat. With no spot on the grid, he settled for a testing role at McLaren. He also joined Peugeot for the 24 Hours of Le Mans and won the race with Derek Warwick and Yannick Dalmas. 

After the sabbatical, Blundell was back in Formula One with Ligier in 1993 and he finished third in the season opener in South Africa. He was fifth in the next round in Brazil. He would finish third in the German Grand Prix and finished the season tenth in the championship. On a one-year deal, he moved to Tyrrell for 1994. He was third in the Spanish Grand Prix, but scored two fewer points than in 1993 and finished two spots worse in the championship.

Sponsorship issues led to Blundell's release from Tyrrell after 1994. In a fortunate break, McLaren came calling for the start of the 1995 season as Nigel Mansell did not fit in the car and could not run the first two races. Blundell also added a role in McLaren's Le Mans project with the F1 GTR. However, Mansell retired for good after two races with McLaren in the 1995 season. Blundell ran the remaining 13 races. He scored 13 points and finished tenth in the championship with his best result being fourth in Italy and Australia.

What did IndyCar look like when Blundell started in the series?
IndyCar was rather healthy. CART had a full grid with sponsors on every car and most a notable name. The series was more than competitive than ever, only a few years removed from Nigel Mansell coming off as World Drivers' Champion. 

CART was a fully international affair with a strong domestic spine. While it had the homegrown likes of Al Unser, Jr., Michael Andretti, Paul Tracy and Jacques Villeneuve, it still had Emerson Fittipaldi while Maurício Gugelmin, Stefan Johansson and Raul Boesel had made roots in the series. Even young drivers like Gil de Ferran and Christian Fittipaldi were finding homes in IndyCar. American Eddie Cheever was early into his second career after a decade in Formula One.

That international flavor was more than the drivers on the grid. Of the 16 races, four races took place outside the United States with trips to Brazil and Australia in March along with two separate trips to Canada. Due to the split, there were only six oval races, none of which were the Indianapolis 500. One of those oval races was in Brazil. There were four street course races and a race ant ann airport. The season began on March 3 and ended on September 8.

Blundell joined right as The Split started. 

The Indy Racing League was starting as a breakaway series to focus on developing American drivers and running on oval tracks. There were a number of opportunities created, but not for the likes of Blundell in mind. That did not stop Blundell from drawing interest from CART organizations. 

When Blundell was not retained by McLaren for the 1995 season and a deal with Sauber fell apart in the 11th hour, an chance to race in IndyCar presented itself. With guidance from Adrian Reynard, Blundell received an offer from PacWest Racing for the 1996 season with Gugelmin as his teammate. Blundell was in one of the 26 full-time entries.

How does IndyCar look now?
There were 27 full-time entries in the 2024 season, and the grid remains rather international. 

The domestic spine is still there but it is not as prominent as it once was. There were eight American drivers that competed in at least 70% of the races this past season. There were 11 different nationalities represented in the top 22 of the championship. 

IndyCar is also changing and looking a little more like CART. Ahead of the 2025 season, a charter system was announced that guarantees 25 entries spots on the grid for every race outside the Indianapolis 500. These 25 entries are the only ones eligible for the 22 Leader Circle spots, essentially a base payment determined by the championship finish from the previous year. Non-chartered teams are allowed to compete in races, but only two spots are available to non-chartered teams at every race outside the Indianapolis 500.

The 2024 season saw 17 races take place over 15 race weekends, 14 of which were run in the United States. There was also a non-championship round held at a country club racetrack in Southern California. Five ovals were on the schedule, two of which hosted doubleheader weekends. There were four street course races. The season began on March 3 and ended on September 15. 

In 2025, the season begins on March 2 and ends on August 31. There will again be five oval weekends, but only one of those will be a doubleheader. The non-championship round will become a full championship race. 

What did Blundell do in-between?
It was not a kind rookie season. Blundell broke his foot in Rio de Janiero and missed the next three races. He was back in time for the U.S. 500 from Michigan International Speedway. For his first 500-mile race, Blundell qualified 19th, the fourth-fastest of six rookies. Driving a rather smart race, Blundell finished fifth, one-lap down.

While he finished fifth at Belle Isle two races later, results were mixed. Blundell ended up 16th in the championship on 41 points, only 12 being teammate Gugelmin. Blundell was the second-best record, but 43 points behind Rookie of the Year Greg Moore.

The 1997 season did not start off with a swift change from the previous season, but he was knocking on the door of victory at Belle Isle only to run out of fuel on the final lap. After a devastating loss, Blundell bounced back with one of the most memorable victories in IndyCar history. On slick tires in Portland, while Gil de Ferran nursed a car home on wet-weather tires, Blundell chased down the Brazilian, erasing a 33-second gap in less than ten laps. 

With a damp track off-line, Blundell was cautious to make a move. He wait until off the final corner and it became a three-car drag race with de Ferran and Raul Boesel. Blundell got to the checkered flag 0.027 seconds ahead of de Ferran and 0.055 seconds ahead of Boesel. 

Portland sparked a second-half surge from Blundell. He won at Toronto two races later and was second in the U.S. 500. He ended the season with a runner-up finish at Laguna Seca and he won the inaugural Fontana race, a 500-miler that saw an intense battle with his teammate Gugelmin as well as Jimmy Vasser and Adrián Fernández. Blundell described Fontana as the best victory of his career. It placed him sixth in the championship on 115 points, two spots and 17 points behind Gugelmin as PacWest took fourth and sixth in the championship, sandwiching Team Penske's Paul Tracy and ahead of both Newman-Haas Racing entries.

Sadly, it was never as good as 1997 after that. Blundell spent the better part of the next three seasons in CART. A testing accident at Gateway caused him to miss eight races in the 1999 season. He never finished in the top five after his Fontana victory. His best result would be sixth at Fontana in 1998. Over his final three seasons, he scored a combined 63 points.

Blundell planned on returning for the 2001 season, but unsatisfied with the lack of personnel changes made heading into that season, he stepped away from the program. He was replaced by a rookie who competed in Indy Lights the year prior, a driver by the name of Scott Dixon.

What impression did Blundell leave on IndyCar?
Blundell is one of those names from the 1990s that remind you how good CART was at the time. Even during The Split, it attracted some top level talent, and after being shuffled around the Formula One grid and missing great opportunities, Blundell could showcase his talent. 

I don't think anyone mistakes Blundell as one of the greatest to ever race IndyCar, but he acclimated himself well to something foreign. His oval skills were incredible, and his ability in 500-mile races were far better than most. As much as we look back on losing the opportunity to see Greg Moore and Alex Zanardi compete in the Indianapolis 500, we also lost the chance to see Blundell run it, and he might have been the best suited for victory out of the three. 

Though he has not been regularly around IndyCar for nearly a quarter-century, Blundell has represented others who have competed in the series. His management company, 2MB Sports Management, has represented Mike Conway, Jordan King and Callum Ilott, three drivers who participated in IndyCar in the previous decade.  

He is more a cult icon in IndyCar circles than anything else. Blundell's success comes down to one season, and not even a full season, half of a season where he won three races. He and PacWest Racing all clicked at the same time, and for a brief moment in time it was one of the most competitive teams in CART. He had plenty of other good rounds, but PacWest did not have the might to remain with Team Penske, Newman-Haas Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing at the front. 

There is a little wonder of what could have been if Blundell had come to IndyCar at a younger age. He turned 30 early in his rookie season. There are not many 30-year-old rookies in IndyCar today. It isn’t rare. Romain Grosjean debuted well into his 30s and Jimmie Johnson was well over 40. Blundell left prior to turning 35 years old. There are not many drivers that willingly call it quits on IndyCar at 35 years old. When you consider his oval ability, he could have had a late-career surge had he been with a good team that switched to the Indy Racing League. If he had received the call to replace Greg Moore instead of Hélio Castroneves at Penske, I don't think he has four Indianapolis 500 victories, but I bet Blundell has at least one. He definitely has more than three career victories as well. 

It is good to have these drivers that you had to be there to see. Blundell got his moment to shine and we saw it at its brightest. If you just missed it, it doesn't seem like much, but it was fun while it lasted. These drivers come around once or twice in a generation. I am not sure who it is for those in the year 2024. Carlos Muñoz? Robert Wickens? Could it be Marcus Ericsson? Maybe we will know in a few more seasons. 

Blundell is not written in the history book for a great day in May or a championship run, but for a brief moment he captured our attention, and it was rightful deserved. 


Monday, November 4, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: They Are All Guilty

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

You know I had written something on IndyCar free agency and drivers on the market who have expressed interest about racing in IndyCar and how there are plenty of drivers out there who would make the grid better and while also helping attract viewers because these drivers have cult followings from a certain docuseries. 

But we cannot read that because NASCAR has another mess on its hand and it could be the end of the playoff era. There will likely be a regulations overhaul this winter after last night's events. Formula One had its own mountain of controversy this weekend and even that does not compare. It has now become a yearly occasion where controversy gets in the way of deciding the NASCAR Cup Series championship. 

NASCAR is not in the spotlight because of the competition. It isn't in the spotlight at all despite developing a system where winning is all that matters and the final races of the season become significantly more intense. Nobody is talking about the race winner Ryan Blaney, and nobody is celebrating who will be competing for the championship next week at Phoenix, like NASCAR wanted. Instead, we are in the muck of a dirty game wondering how to make it clean.

They Are All Guilty
With Ryan Blaney on his way to taking the checkered flag at Martinsville, it was clear the final spot in the championship four would be between William Byron and Christopher Bell. One driver was struggling on worn tires and the other driver was a lap down with only one spot ahead of him to gain, but half a track up the road. 

It came down to one point separating Byron and Bell. Byron could not lose a spot and Bell needed one more. It all collided on the final lap. 

With Byron struggling, the Chevrolets of Ross Chastain and Austin Dillon ran side-by-side behind Byron. Toyota's Bubba Wallace was the next car one-lap down and running slow on the outside of the track. Bell was driving to get that one final point. 

The final turn decided it. Byron was set to finish sixth and not lose any more points. Wallace was directly ahead of Bell and Bell made his move to the inside of turn three. Bell got ahead of Wallace but hit the wall in turn four in the process. Staying on the throttle, Bell did what he could to stay ahead of Wallace. He got off the wall before the start/finish line and ahead of Wallace, ending tied on points with Byron but with the tiebreaker provisionally placing Bell as the fourth finalist with a shot at the title in Phoenix. However, after Ross Chastain's move two years ago, NASCAR had implemented a rule banning drivers from riding the wall to gain positions. 

Nearly a half hour after the checkered flag was waved, NASCAR penalized Bell for his move, declaring it a safety violation. He lost four spots, four points and Byron was awarded the final championship spot. However, Byron was hardly a victim. 

While waiting for NASCAR's final decision on the results, scanner radio was played from Dillon's crew updating Dillon on Byron's playoff position and asking if Chastain's team was aware of the "deal" that was in place. Wallace had also received messages about Bell's peril of needing a point, and Wallace saying he thought he had a tire going down before being told to move to the outside of the track. 

Despite the final spot in the finale coming down to two drivers from two separate organizations, there were three other teams highly invested in the outcome and who made it to Phoenix.

Bell was penalized because there was a rule in place and it was interpreted he broke the rule. As much as Bell could argue it was different and he did not deliberately drive into the wall with in-car video showing him doing all he could to stay off the SAFER Barrier, he forced NASCAR to make a decision, and it was decided he had gone too far. 

However, the radio messages heard are not different from other radio comments that have received penalties previously. It was only two years ago Stewart-Haas Racing had mentioned to Cole Custer over the radio about Chase Briscoe needing a position in the final race of the second round from Charlotte's roval. Custer allowed Briscoe ahead and Briscoe advanced to the next round. In the aftermath, Custer was penalizes 50 points and crew chief Mike Shiplett was indefinitely suspended. Shiplett missed the remainder of the season and was reinstated on January 10, 2023. 

It was 11 years ago Clint Bowyer spun at Richmond in an attempt to help then-Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. make the playoffs. The comments and the deliberate spin led to points penalties to Bowyer and Truex, Jr., which took Truex, Jr. out of the playoffs despite Truex, Jr. knowing nothing of the incident. It also led to a $300,000 fine to the team and it led Napa Auto Parts to withdraw its sponsorship from MWR at the end of that season, forcing the team to contract one car and release Truex, Jr.

That moment at Richmond led to vigilance from NASCAR against race manipulation. It didn't want the credibility of its races questioned and it did not want teams and drivers actively trying to orchestrate a particular outcome. 

No matter how hard it tries, with the current playoff format, it is almost impossible to regulate. That is especially true when the manufacturers are involved.

It is pretty apparent Trackhouse's Ross Chastian and Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon were doing all they could to keep Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron from losing more positions. It is pretty apparent 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace was looking out for Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell. 

NASCAR can deduct all the driver points and owner points it wants. It can raise the fines another $100,000 and effectively sentence crew chiefs to death, barring them from ever stepping foot in a garage again, but when the manufacturers are pulling the strings, nothing will change. 

Chevrolet deciding it will do all it can to guarantee a Chevrolet participant in the championship four can only be prevented if Chevrolet is penalized, but NASCAR would never punish a manufacturer. Teams will come and go. We saw that with Michael Waltrip Racing, but NASCAR cannot afford to lose a manufacturer. It is not going to issue a fine that would really hurt a partner. The last thing NASCAR can afford to do is scare away a company that supplies engines to nearly half the grid. As much as a $5 million fine or $10 million fine would send a message, it would also be business suicide and hurt the teams far more even if done for the integrity of competition. 

But that is the only way conceivable way to prevent what we saw last night at Martinsville. You can write all the rules in the world saying a team must "give 100%" and "must race honestly" and "cannot manipulate the result," but if there is an entity that is always above the rules, nothing will change. It will happen again. A few foot soldiers will be lost but a few more will be found for when the time comes to do it again. 

The little guy (whether that be crew chief, driver, or team owner) suffers while the major corporate gets off scot free. A tale as old as time. 

They are all guilty, but that does not make everything right. The problem is I don't know how this changes. Even without a playoff format, there would still be instances with drivers needing a point here or there. A full season championship makes it less likely to determine an outcome, but it is not entirely eliminated. I think we can all understand if the chance still exists but with this format it happens on a far more regular basis and it honestly exists at the end of every playoff round. 

Thirty-plus years ago, Hendrick Motorsports isn't pulling over for Dale Earnhardt and Richard Childress Racing. Junior Johnson isn't pulling over for Rusty Wallace and Team Penske or Davey Allison and Robert Yates Racing, but in the 21st century, manufacturer influence is far greater. 

These teams are more dependent on the manufacturers' for success. Teams cannot test every day it is not racing. There is virtually no practice time. Any improvement that can be made must come from wind tunnels or simulators. Guess who controls those resources? These are separate teams but there is pressure for them all to get along, and manufacturer favoritism has far greater sway in this world of limitations. That has been clear as day at Daytona and Talladega, as over the last decade the manufacturers will work almost exclusively together to put their cars at the front. It has now expanded to deciding who will run for a championship. 

NASCAR hasn't been good ole' competition for a long time. It has been a multi-billion dollar monster for the entire 21st century. These teams will do all they cannot to lose a dollar in support. When told jump, they will respond with, "How high?" They are no better than what you see in Formula One or the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters. When there is this much money at stake from the manufacturers, they get to call some shots, likely more than you wish. This is the deal everyone has made to survive. It isn't changing anytime soon.

It is going to come in play next week at Phoenix even if it is not as explicit as it was at Martinsville. There is no incentive for Stewart-Haas Racing or RFK Racing to win at Phoenix. Richard Childress Racing has nothing to gain from winning the finale. Even Joe Gibbs Racing has nothing to play for. For Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, all that matters are the championship finalists. 

Ross Chastain might have won the finale last year for Trackhouse, but Ford's Ryan Blaney won the championship finishing second and directly ahead of fellow finalists Chevrolet's Kyle Larson and Chevrolet's William Byron. Anyone with a pulse knows Chevrolet didn't give a damn about Chastain winning that race, especially when it showed up to Phoenix as the only manufacturer with two bullets in the gun. 

Last year was a lesson, and it will not be repeated. We already know there is a plan in place coming from a much higher power. 

Champions From the Weekend
The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche of Kévin Estre, André Lotterer and Laurens Vanthoor clinched the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with a tenth-place finish in the 8 Hours of Bahrain.

Toyota clinched the World Endurance Manufacturers' Championship with a victory in Bahrain, Toyota's sixth consecutive championship.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Ryan Blaney, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Brazilian Grand Prix, his eighth victory of the season and it ended ten-race winless drought for Verstappen. Lando Norris won the sprint race.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Malaysian Grand Prix, his tenth victory of the season. Jorge Martín won the sprint race. Celestino Vietti won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his 13th victory of the season and his sixth consecutive victory.

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Brendon Hartley and Ryō Hirakawa won the 8 Hours of Bahrain. The #55 AF Corse Ferrari of François Heriau, Simon Mann and Alessio Rovera won in LMGT3.

Aric Almirola won the Grand National Series race, his third victory of the season. Christian Eckes won the Truck race, his fourth victory of the season.

The #36 TGR Team au TOM'S Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita won the Super GT race from Motegi. The #88 JLOC Lamborghini of Takashi Kogure and Yuya Motojima won in GT300.

Coming Up This Weekend
The NASCAR season finale from Phoenix. 
Super Formula ends its season with a doubleheader at Suzuka. Sho Tsuboi is up 14.5 points on Tadasuke Makino with 46 points left on the table. Tomoki Nojiri, Ayuma Iwasa, Nirei Fukuzumi and Kenta Yamahsita are also alive for the championship.


Friday, November 1, 2024

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2024 Season

We close our IndyCar Wrap-Ups with the champions, and for the second consecutive season it is Chip Ganassi Racing. Álex Palou successfully defended his title, and won his third championship in four seasons. For Ganassi, that makes its four titles in five seasons. While running five cars with two rookies and a sophomore didn't produce the most dominant seasons ever seen, Ganassi did not fall behind despite the inexperience. Its veterans still led the team ahead of the rest.

Álex Palou
It was always going to be hard to match his 2023 season, but Palou did not need to finish eighth or better in every race to claim another championship. The consistency remained insurmountable to the rest of the IndyCar field. While the door was left open as we saw Palou was human, no driver could overcome the methodically nature in which Palou wins championships. 

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won twice, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and at Laguna Seca. He also on the exhibition race at The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California, which paid $500,000 to the winner.

What subjectively was his best race?
Palou drove away with Laguna Seca. The Catalan driver stayed out under the Luca Ghiotto caution, which allowed him to drive flat out from those who did stop on lap 60. Palou opened a gap as others saved, and it allowed him to control a race that was not his in the early stages. He did have to hold on during some late restarts, but this race played into his favor and the competition gifted him one through conservative strategy.

What objectively was his worst race?
In the first Iowa race, Palou spun in the middle of the front straightaway somewhat inexplicably, and he finished 23rd. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
It proved not to be dire to his championship, but the second Milwaukee race could not have resulted in much worse after Palou's car died on the pace laps. With a chance of clinching the title early for a second consecutive season, Palou looked set on making Nashville a formality. When his car was unable to take the green flag, it appeared Palou could be heading to the Music City fighting from behind.

It was only a battery issue, but it still cost him precious laps. However, Palou plugged along and with a high attrition rate, plus Will Power spinning on his own while in the running for at least a podium position, 19th at Milwaukee turned out to be not so bad a result, and Palou maintained a healthy points lead into the finale.

Álex Palou's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (544 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 263
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 8.411
Average Finish: 6.5294

Scott Dixon
In the later stages of his IndyCar career, Dixon may have found the one driver that can beat him at his own game. Not entirely of course, as fuel mileage continues to be the New Zealander's specialty, but the sheer unshakability of Palou's form is something we had only seen from Dixon, especially at this rate. As great as he has been, we have known Dixon is human this entire time. He looked more human this year than in others.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon was the first driver to two victories this season, and they were both street races. He won at Long Beach and Detroit.

What subjectively was his best race?
Long Beach became another race of legend on what is an already long list for Dixon. Stretching his fuel to 34 laps over each of the final two stints, Dixon pulled off a stunning drive from eighth on the grid to win this race despite having Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Álex Palou all charging him down in the closing laps. 

Dixon never lost his cool and kept his calculated nature on point, not pushing too much to run out of fuel, but pushing enough to keep the competition at bay. Dixon wasn't the only one to use this strategy, but he finished over 15 seconds ahead of Will Power doing the same thing, and Power was ahead of Dixon after the first round of pit stops.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon did not complete a lap at Portland after contact with Pietro Fittipaldi sent Dixon into the barrier on the outside of turn eight. This came after Dixon went off course battling Kyle Kirkwood in turn seven. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Portland was bad, but Mid-Ohio was worse because Dixon had the foreshadowing electrical issues that we saw trip up Palou at Milwaukee. Dixon's car died on the pace laps and instead of trying to win from 13th in the debut hybrid race, Dixon lost 20 laps and pretty much ran a 40-lap test session to claim 27th. This result signaled the downfall for his season. After six top ten finishes in the first eight races, Dixon would finish outside the top ten in four of the final nine races including two results outside the top 25.

Scott Dixon's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (456 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 98
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.352
Average Finish: 9.6471

Marcus Armstrong
The reigning Rookie of the Year was back for something new in 2024: A full season! Armstrong got to run all the ovals in combination with the road and street courses he was familiar with. There were some growing pains as Armstrong had a sophomore slump of sorts. He made mistakes at some unfortunate times, but he showed good pace and kept up with his senior teammates. 

What objectively was his best race?
Armstrong picked up his first career podium finish in Detroit. Running the same strategy as his teammate and fellow countryman Dixon, Armstrong clung to a podium result with a 44-lap stint to close the race. He was able to hold off Kyle Kirkwood, but Armstrong ran out of fuel on the cool down lap. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Detroit deserves strong consideration for being Armstrong's best race, but he also held his own in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis when the two senior Ganassi cars were quick. e started eighth while Palou was on pole position and Dixon was starting sixth. Armstrong ran with Dixon the entire race and both drivers went forward. This ended up being a triple top five day for Ganassi with Palou winning while Dixon was fourth and Armstrong was fifth.

What objectively was his worst race?
Armstrong lost his engine only six laps into the Indianapolis 500. It wasn't even six laps in anger. The caution came out after the first turn accident with Tom Blomqvist, Pietro Fittipaldi and Marcus Ericsson. Armstrong lost his engine on a caution lap, an awful way for his first Indianapolis 500 to end after a lengthy rain delay. With three cars out, at least he was 30th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Armstrong had two races where he started third this season. In both races, Armstrong ran over the pole-sitter, ending his race before it started and leaving him 26th in the final classification. 

The first one was Road America, where Armstrong punted his teammate Linus Lundqvist from pole position in the opening corner of the race. This didn't end Armstrong's race, but it got him a penalty. The mechanical issues ended his race. The next one was the second Milwaukee race where Armstrong had Lundqvist plow into the back of him when the start was waved off and this sent Armstrong into Josef Newgarden in pole position. 

Milwaukee was less his fault than Road America. Road America was likely worse of the two, but on two occasions it looked like Armstrong was poised to have a great day from a great starting position, and both times, he had trouble before he could complete a corner. 

Marcus Armstrong's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (298 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.0588
Average Finish: 14.529

Linus Lundqvist
After making his IndyCar debut last year as a substitute, Lundqvist was back for a full season with Chip Ganassi Racing. The Swede had sparks of success, but he also stumbled along the way. For portions of the season, he was rather hidden in the field, but he did have a few standout performances against a splintered rookie class.

What objectively was his best race?
Lundqvist had two third-place finishes this season. The first one was at Barber Motorsports Park and the second one was at Gateway Motorsports Park. Maybe Lundqvist has a thing for "motorsports parks."

What subjectively was his best race?
I give the edge to Barber over Gateway because Gateway saw Lundqvist really benefit from other cars getting knocked out of the race. It was still a good run, but he probably should have been fifth or sixth. At Barber, Lundqvist had to stretch his fuel 34 laps while other quicker cars were around him and there was a late restart. Strategy gave him track position from 19th on the grid, but he pulled it off in a intense environment. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Lundqvist's first Indianapolis 500 ended after 27 laps when his car walked up the track from the inside of a four-wide situation in turn one. Somehow, he did not collect any other cars. Lundqvist did all he could to save it, but he slapped the barrier when he could not keep it straight on the sixth attempt. This placed him 28th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It might sound harsh because it wasn't his fault, but Road America was a massive disappointment. Lundqvist couldn't control being hit from behind, but for your maiden pole position to be see you spun in the first turn is deflating. Lundqvist did a good job recovering to finish 12th, but there is no silver lining when you are starting on pole position.

Linus Lundqvist's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (179 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 27
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 14.941
Average Finish: 15.353

Kyffin Simpson
Simpson came into the IndyCar season with low expectations after a rather underwhelming two seasons in Indy Lights. His saving grace was the sports car success he had along side his open-wheel form. This was never going to be a year where Simpson was challenging Palou and Dixon for best in the team. He had some bad days, but there more impressive days than complete disasters. 

What objectively was his best race?
Simpson's best result in the record book is 12th at St. Petersburg, which was actually 14th on the road, but improved to 12th after Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin were disqualified for the push-to-pass manipulation that was found over six weeks after the race.

What subjectively was his best race?
There are two contenders here, and both were 14th-place results. 

Barber Motorsports Park, where Simpson drove a smart race and climbed from 23rd to 14th. 

The first Iowa race, where Simpson didn't do much wrong and went from 27th to 14th. 

No one did anything all that impressive at Iowa. It was pretty much came down to smart strategy, good pit stops and not losing ground on restarts. Simpson was ahead of Dixon and Josef Newgarden at Barber. Neither of those drivers had their best days, but they didn't have accidents or broken cars. They were just slow. Simpson wasn't blisteringly quick either, but he was better on this day than two of IndyCar's best.

What objectively was his worst race?
Simpson was spun off course on lap six at Road America after contact with Christian Rasmussen. It was entirely on Rasmussen and Simpson was hard done by such a turn of events. This placed Simpson in 27th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Simpson did not tear up much equipment this season. Laguna Seca was not good when he spun on his own in turn five and spun into the path of Graham Rahal. This left him in 23rd. He also had a lazy spin on his own at Gateway that left him to finish 25th as well. He slapped the wall in turn eight at Toronto. He didn't make minor errors this season, but he made a few as you would expect any rookie would.

Kyffin Simpson's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (182 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 3
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 22.4705
Average Finish: 19.471

An Early Look Ahead
Palou and Dixon will continue, and we found out tw days ago Kyffin Simpson will continue with the team in the #8 Honda.

The third car is irrelevant to the team's success. Palou and Dixon are fine. Considering the form we have seen, we aren't going to see Ganassi fall off. Palou will continue to be a race winner and be running at the front. Even a few off days are not enough to throw Palou off championship pace. Dixon continues to pull out good results, but there are a few worrying signs from Dixon. 

In the final six races, Dixon's best starting position was ninth. He started outside the top fifteen in three of those races. His average starting position of 11.352 was the third-worst in his career. He hasn't started on the front row in 32 consecutive races. Five of his last six victories have been from starting positions outside the top five. Dixon has still been getting good results, but we aren't seeing Dixon as the man to beat on a regular basis. You could make the argument his last five victories have all come down to strategy and not speed. You could say it is six straight when you consider how he won at Nashville in 2022. Dixon is running better than most, but he has been beatable.

It doesn't help when your teammate is Palou. Palou makes everyone look pedestrian. In 2023, Dixon was in the top ten of every race but one. If it wasn't for Palou, Dixon would have controlled that championship. Ganassi still has the best 1-2 punch in IndyCar. 

The charter rules are forcing Ganassi to downsize to three cars. You must wonder what Ganassi could do if it put three serious drivers in its seats. Simpson could improve next year but he was 69 points off 18th. He was 115 points outside the top fifteen and 184 points behind tenth. Simpson only scored 182 points last year. He would need more than double his output to be in the consideration for the top ten. Simpson turned 20 years old last month, but how long a leash does he get considering how far he has to go? Even the richest sons have a limit. 

Armstrong was the best of the rest when it comes to the Ganassi drivers in 2024. He could be capable of winning races, but Ganassi could have hired Alexander Rossi, a past winner. Ganassi could have hired Théo Pourchaire, arguably the best rookie from the 2024 season. Callum Ilott was sitting out there basically the entire year. Ganassi could have done what it was once known for and hire one of the top drivers from Europe not in Formula One. It tested 2022 Formula Two champion Felipe Drugovich at Barber Motorsports Park in September. If you are talking about winners, there are better ones out there, and Ganassi allegedly likes them. 

Even with a weak third driver, Ganassi will remain a top team. It has won four of the last five championships. With Palou and Dixon still in the line up, you cannot write off another one being added in 2025.


Thursday, October 31, 2024

Best of the Month: October 2024

It is colder. It actually isn’t that much colder. I am wearing short sleeves for the second consecutive day and it is October 31! It is darker. The year is almost over. Races are becoming fewer and fewer for this calendar year. Many championships have been awarded. A few more will be handed out over the next 30 days. One will be decided in two. It is getting a little sad, but it is natural. Seasons end. More will start soon enough. There is plenty to be excited about. There is plenty to celebrate already. That is what we will do to end October 2024.

It is Nice to See Marc Márquez Doing Well
This will not end in a championship, but for Marc Márquez possibly finishing third in the championship on a year-old Ducati after making the switch away from Honda when the Japanese manufacturer was at an all-time low, and Márquez was hoping to find fitness he has not had in nearly five years, third in the championship would be a tremendous result. 

Ever since 2020, Márquez has been fighting injuries more than he has been fighting riders for MotoGP victories. He had won eight world championships in the previous ten seasons including six MotoGP titles in seven seasons. When the delayed 2020 season was starting at Jerez, it felt inevitable Márquez would take a ninth title and fifth consecutive. With one fall, the next four years were lost. 

Most of this struggle is on Márquez's shoulders, attempting to rush back from injury only to make it worse. It did not help that Honda's slide coincided with Márquez's injuries. The speed was there at times, and he did win three times in 2021 though he missed four races and retired from four more, but he could not shake the injury bug. Over the last four seasons, Márquez missed 29 races.

It became clear Honda was not going to field a proper contender. In the previous two seasons, Márquez extracted more out of that bike than anyone could imagine. Wins would not be coming his way if he stayed, but as damaged goods his options were limited. Gresini Racing and a year-old Ducati was going to be better than most other options, and this season was a gamble Márquez took on himself. 

It has worked out.

Some of it could be down to Márquez recognizing he must remain on the bike. He cannot push the limit like he once did. The greatest ability is availability, and missing races, especially with the introduction of sprint races, are only going to extinguish championship sooner rather than later. 

For the first half of this season, we saw a rider lurking in the background. Márquez was there. He wasn't coming out on top, but he was right behind the new Ducatis. There was a threat breathing down their necks. In the second half of the season, we have seen Márquez flex his muscle.

Three victories, five podium finishes, and seven top five finishes in nine races since the summer break, Márquez will have a fight for third in the championship over the final two races with another rejuvenated rider Enea Bastianini only ten points back. Even if Márquez finishes fourth in the championship, this has been a promising season where more positives can be drawn from the results than negatives. 

This gamble has paid off in a promotion to the factory Ducati team alongside Francesco Bagnaia in 2025. Other than a championship, the results of 2024 have gotten Márquez all he could have wanted from this season. He will be on the best bike and equal playing ground as the riders that have dominated the championship the last three seasons. 

The rest of the grid is in trouble.

Antonio García's Streak Continues
The IMSA season ended nearly three weeks ago now, and somehow one of the strangest streaks in motorsports is still alive, and it is one prediction I will mark as wrong in a few weeks time when we review how the 2024 predictions played out. 

For the 13th consecutive season, Antonio García has finished either first or third in the championship. García was third in the IMSA GTD Pro championship with his #3 Corvette co-driver Alexander Sims. The streak now looks like this:

Third
First
Third
Third
Third
First
First
Third
First
First
Third 
Third
Third

Entering the 2024 season finale at Petit Le Mans, it felt like this was going to be the year García wound up in an even-numbered championship finish or worse than third. 

The #3 Corvette was fifth in the championship on 2,646 points, 13 points behind the #14 VasserSullivan Lexus of Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth, and 22 points behind the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW of Bryan Sellers and Madison Snow. As good as García and Sims are, and as tight as 22 points might be, it felt like we were bound for a weekend where the #3 Corvette would not make up that ground. That is not saying the #3 Corvette would do poorly, but with this streak on the line, it was bound to go against García. It could still be a good finish but not good enough.

How did this happen? 

The #3 Corvette took fourth in class in qualifying. Paul Miller Racing was 11th and the VasserSullivan was 12th. That made up over 60% of the gap to the Lexus and nearly half the gap to Paul Miller Racing right there. In the race, the #14 Lexus fell out of the race barely over a quarter of the way through and was classified 13th in class. The #3 Corvette was fifth while the #1 BMW was seventh. In the race, the Corvette outscored the Paul Miller Racing BMW by 20 points and the Lexus by 80 points. 

There you have it. Right when it looked destined to end, this streak continues and Antonio García has one of the remarkably consistent runs of form currently in motorsports. Nothing lasts forever, but perhaps we shouldn't believe this will until we actually see it end.

Formula One's Run-In
This might have been hard to fathom to write at the start of the calendar, but on the final day of October, only 47 points separate first and second in the World Drivers' Championship, four drivers remain alive for the title and Red Bull is third in the World Constructors' Championship with four races remaining. 

It has been a season that has taken a turn. 

Max Verstappen had seven victories in the first ten races. At the midway point in the season, Verstappen was up 84 points over Lando Norris. However, since the summer break concluded, Verstappen has finished behind Norris in five of six races. Verstappen hasn't won since Spain, and though it feels unlikely, the chance remains that the championship could change hands in about six week's time in Abu Dhabi.

Mathematically speaking, four drivers still have a chance at the championship. Charles Leclerc is 71 points back with 120 points remaining on the table. Oscar Piastri is 111 points back.

At this time last year, the championship had already been decided for two rounds entering the final four rounds. The general expectation this season was Verstappen would walkaway handily with maybe a little more competition but not enough to knock him off his perch. There is a good chance Verstappen will hold on to this title, but one poor result and it could swing to Norris. 

It will require Norris outscoring Verstappen by more than 11.75 points over the final four rounds for him to beat the Dutchman. It is long odds, but considering this Formula One season has seen four different teams each win at least three races for the first time since 1977, and this is the first season where six drivers have won at least twice since 1981, why couldn't wee see this season capped off with the absolute unthinkable?

November Preview
While Formula One is in the middle of a title fight of its own, the FIA World Endurance Championship has a championship that will be decided this weekend. 

Three teams have a shot at winning the World Endurance Drivers' Championship this weekend in the 8 Hours of Bahrain. Thirty-nine points remain on the table in the finale. 

The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche of Kévin Estre, André Lotterer and Laurens Vanthoor has 150 points after victories at Qatar and Fuji. Thirty-five points back is the Le Mans-winning #50 Ferrari of Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina and Nicklas Nielsen. Thirty-seven points back and clinging to title hopes are Kamui Kobayashi and Nyck de Vries in the #7 Toyota, which won at Imola. Mike Conway, the third driver in the #7 Toyota, missed the 24 Hours of Le Mans after a cycling accident and Conway is not alive for the championship.

Porsche also leads the manufacturers' championship with 161 points, ten more than Toyota and 27 points ahead of Ferrari. 

A Toyota team has won five consecutive championships in WEC's top class. Kobayashi is a two-time champion. The only other past champion in the top class still alive is Lotterer, who won the first World Endurance Drivers' Championship in 2012 with Audi. Estre won the World Endurance GT Drivers' Championship in 2018-19. Nielsen won the Endurance Trophy for GTE Am Drivers twice.

The 8 Hours of Bahrain will begin at 7:00 a.m. ET on Saturday November 2. 

Other events of note in November:
After the Brazilian Grand Prix, Formula One will return for another Las Vegas round.
MotoGP has two final rounds in Malaysia and Valencia.
NASCAR ends its season with Martinsville and Phoenix.
Supercars will end in Adelaide.
Super Formula concludes at Suzuka. 
The World Rally Championship crowns a champion in Japan.
The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup finishes in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. 




Wednesday, October 30, 2024

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Team Penske's 2024 Season

Our penultimate IndyCar Wrap-Up has us at Team Penske, and we could spend a few days talking about Team Penske's 2024 season. From technical infractions to contract negotiations, teammates bickering and uncharacteristically poor results, disqualifications and accidents to another Indianapolis 500 victory, Team Penske was a soap opera in its own right. However, it was still Team Penske. Despite all of its issues, it still won the most races this season, but the team was not clinical enough to claim the title.

Scott McLaughlin
Expectations are always high at Team Penske, but McLaughlin entered his fourth full season in IndyCar expecting to continue his ascension in IndyCar. After finishing fourth and third in the championship the previous two years, McLaughlin was looking to assert himself as the best at Team Penske, and he made a great case for it.

What objectively was his best race?
McLaughlin won three races. He won at Barber Motorsports Park, the first Iowa race and the second Milwaukee race. Iowa and Milwaukee were his first career oval victories.

What subjectively was his best race?
Milwaukee stands out the most because McLaughlin had the best car, but the way the strategies played out, he could not just rely on being the best car. He had to hold off the strategic drives of Will Power, Colton Herta and Scott Dixon. A late restart only added to the pressure, but McLaughlin was able to keep the field at bay and pick up his third victory of the season.

What objectively was his worst race?
It is the race where McLaughlin was disqualified. The push-to-pass violation found after St. Petersburg relegated McLaughlin from a third-place finish with 35 points to 27th and no points. That would prove to be costly. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
In combination to the St. Petersburg race, McLaughlin lost a gearbox in the second race at Long Beach. At that time in Long Beach, we thought it was a third combined with a 26th, two results that effectively canceled each other out. Once the disqualification was announced, it went from a third and a 26th and 41 combined points to a 27th and a 26th and a combined five points. 

It felt like it was season over at that point, but credit to McLaughlin to do all that he could to remain alive. Sadly, McLaughlin lost 39 points. The St. Petersburg penalty was a 39-point swing to Álex Palou as Palou gained four points in combination with the 35 points McLaughlin lost. If St. Petersburg's results remained unchanged, McLaughlin would have won the championship on tiebreaker.

Scott McLaughlin's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (505 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 637
Poles: 5
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 6.411
Average Finish: 9.1765

Will Power
Power entered 2024 after experiencing the highest of highs and the lowest of lows over the previous two seasons. In 2022, Power was champion. In 2023, Power was winless for the first time since the 2006 Champ Car season. Add to it health concerns for his wife, 2023 was a much tougher season away from the track than on it. With his wife's health restored, Power found his old spark in 2024.

What objectively was his best race?
Power also won three races this season. The first came at Road America in a race that Team Penske dominated, but Power was the third-best of the three drivers until he leaped forward in the final round of pit stops. Power again found fortune in a pit cycle when Power had yet to stop when the caution came out in the second Iowa race. He was the only driver yet to stop and this put him into the lead for the remainder of the race. At Portland, he pounced at the start and led from second on the grid, and he went on to lead 101 of 110 laps.

What subjectively was his best race?
Considering how the Road America race was turning into Scott McLaughlin vs. Josef Newgarden and Power was an after-thought, this victory was far more impressive than the others. It felt inevitable the race would be decided during the final round of pit stops between McLaughlin and Newgarden. During the final round of pit stops, Power went the longest before making his final stop, and running long was the better strategy, as Power emerged clear of his teammates. Power was able to keep the other two Penske cars behind him and he ended up taking the victory, ending a 33-race winless streak.

What objectively was his worst race?
Power had two finishes of 24th, the Indianapolis 500 and Nashville.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nashville should be viewed as a disaster because the most self-inflicted wound ended Power's championship hopes. His seatbelts were not properly fastened prior to the start of the race and Power had to come in to get that rectified 15 laps into the contest. The championship ended right then and there. It took five laps for Power to get his belts fixed and it was a race where he had to finish third or better. The remainder of the race was wondering what could have been.

Will Power's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 4th (498 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 367
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 6.705
Average Finish: 8.6471

Josef Newgarden
No driver was more vocal during the offseason about personal changes made than Josef Newgarden. After a good but not great year in 2023, Newgarden was set to re-focus his career and he worked on getting the most out of on-track results. Dropping off-track concerns like his YouTube series with McLaughlin and unfollowing everyone on social media, Newgarden was ready to return to the top of IndyCar. Newgarden could not have prepared for a more unconventional season than the one he experienced in 2024, and he ended up heading in the wrong direction.

What objectively was his best race?
The history books will credit Newgarden with two victories for the 2024 season. The first was the Indianapolis 500, his second consecutive time winning IndyCar's most famous race, and it put Newgarden in esteemed company. The second was Gateway Motorsports Park, a race where Newgarden overcame a spin and where he had a tight battle in the closing stages with McLaughlin.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Indianapolis. Off the back of the push-to-pass controversy, Newgarden had been marred leading into Indianapolis. His results after the disqualification were poor, and he needed a bounce back. For it to come at Indianapolis, but not just in the form of a good run, but a daring passing to the outside of Patricio O'Ward in turn three of the final lap was the statement most drivers wish they could make in their careers. 

Any doubt over talent or ability was cast aside with Newgarden flying around the outside. With it all on the one, Newgarden took a gamble and it stuck. He stole it from the fingertips of another exceptional driver, and it could leave little doubt over Newgarden's greatness.

What objectively was his worst race?
Because he was run over when the start was waved off of the second Milwaukee race, Newgarden was classified in 27th with only five laps completed though he started on pole position. That was a dagger to what was a difficult season.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It wasn't one race, but the number of mental errors we saw from Newgarden all year. He made some blunders, and if it wasn't for the Indianapolis 500 victory, it would be the defining characteristic of his 2024 season. In some ways, it still is. 

He was woeful at Barber Motorsports Park and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He spun on his own at Detroit and it cost him dearly. He spun out from fifth late at Laguna Seca and he was flat uncompetitive at Mid-Ohio, attempting a three-stop strategy that was never going to work. The track change at Iowa caught him out, though he stilled pulled out two good results. He coughed up a top ten finish at Toronto. Then he had the Milwaukee weekend from hell, tangling with Marcus Ericsson in the first race while looking for a top five finish and having Marcus Armstrong run over him before the second race even began. 

Newgarden had eight finishes outside the top fifteen this year, his most since eight in 2014. This was a stunningly poor season or Newgarden, and that isn't even taking into consideration he was disqualified from victory at St. Petersburg. And he was still eighth in the championship.

Josef Newgarden's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 8th (401 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 137
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 7.294
Average Finish: 12.765

An Early Look Ahead
We cannot think Team Penske will be this dysfunctional again in 2025. There is a very good argument that if the St. Petersburg penalty never comes, this season looks very different, and I am not talking about McLaughlin winning the championship on tiebreaker. 

After St. Petersburg, it felt like Newgarden was going to be the driver to beat this year. Even after fourth at Long Beach, it appeared Newgarden was at a level to match the consistency of Álex Palou. Once the penalty came down, it shook the organization. It shook Newgarden more than the rest.

Whether we will ever know who knew what about the technical infractions on the push-to-pass system, an otherwise steady organization was in turmoil. It clearly rocked the confidence of Newgarden. All three driver lost key crew members early in the season. The team was able to right the ship at the Indianapolis 500, and McLaughlin did win at Barber Motorsports Park, but it is fair to say this group was the most disjointed in IndyCar at the start of May. 

I cannot envision Penske being that off again. It isn't going to break the rules in such a manner that is for sure. 

Either way, it has McLaughlin entering 2025 riding a great wave of confidence and arguably the best in the team. Power is revived after a difficult 2023, but for all the speed we saw from Power, he wasn't clean now the stretch with five finishes outside the top ten in the final nine races. Newgarden had his worst year at Team Penske by a considerable margin. He could not string together three consecutive good weekends to save himself. 

McLaughlin and Power may have the easiest move into the new season, but Newgarden has work to do. Newgarden vowed to make changes for the better in 2024, and he went in the wrong direction. An Indianapolis 500 victory softens the blow, but too often the #2 team struggled to get into contention or Newgarden took them out of contention. They cannot afford a repeat of that next season, and Newgarden must figure out what is the best mindset for him outside the race car.

Everyone should get better, or at least be in a better headspace in 2025. If all three of these drivers are focused, Team Penske will improve from where it was in 2024, which is already a pretty great position despite the minor chaos that happened behind the scenes.


Monday, October 28, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: Did We Expect to be Here Four Years Ago?

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

This was a brilliant weekend for motorsports. MX-5 Cup's race at Martinsville happened, and Jared Thomas won the exhibition race. Blood boiled in the Formula One world as those two world championships got a little tighter in Mexico City. There were six legitimate contenders for the NASCAR Cup Series victory at Homestead. Weather added suspense for MotoGP in Buriram. Supercars is set up for a two-driver title fight in Adelaide next month. This is the final weekend of October, and as I finish up the IndyCar Wrap-Ups this week, I thought about how much has changed in a short period of time, and if we saw this coming.

Did We Expect to be Here Four Years Ago?
The end of this October has not featured any on-track action that means anything for IndyCar (testing doesn't count), but at this time four years ago, we were only days removed from an IndyCar finale that felt relieving. IndyCar made it through 2020 with a respectable season of 14 races held over the first weekend in June through the final Sunday in October, and there was a championship battle to boot.

Despite a number of canceled events, a number of delayed events, doubleheaders galore and an Indianapolis 500 in August, IndyCar made it and we could feel satisfied. We saw a championship that went to the wire despite the uncertain timeframe for the final race and that race not featuring double points. It was also a surprise this championship was not claimed early after Scott Dixon opened the season with three consecutive victories. Josef Newgarden put up a fight to defend his championship but ended a valiant second behind Dixon as two of IndyCar's best kept each other honest to the final lap at St. Petersburg.

It was the fourth consecutive season one of either Dixon or Newgarden won the championship. After this one, Dixon found himself one championship away from tying A.J. Foyt's record of seven titles. Newgarden fell just short of a third title, and his second consecutive. 

In those days after the 2020 season, we all had a thought of what would happen in the future and what the next four seasons would look like. Did any of us expect it playing out this way? 

After Dixon and Newgarden alternated titles, after Colton Herta was third in the 2020 championship in his sophomore season directly ahead of Patricio O'Ward in his sophomore season, and after Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had its drivers finish sixth and seventh in the championship and win the Indianapolis 500, did we expect the last four seasons would see Álex Palou win three titles in four year, Scott McLaughlin become a legitimate title contender and a threat on all circuits, Meyer Shank Racing have an Indianapolis 500 victory, and RLLR to be unable to put a driver better than 18th in the championship? 

Honestly, I cannot say I did. 

Thinking about how the last few seasons have played out, no one can say they saw it playing out exactly this way. 

Looking back on what I wrote after the 2020 season, at no point did I write about Palou winning the championship the following year let alone winning three of the next four. 

In the Dale Coyne Racing wrap-up that year, I acknowledged how a handful of results did not reflect Palou's ability and he showed something was there for his sophomore season, but I also said he was streaky and Coyne should want someone who is a step better. What a foolish thought that appears to be in hindsight?

When it came to looking ahead for Chip Ganassi Racing, I compared Palou's rookie seasons to Marcus Ericsson's rookie season in 2019, the year before Ericsson joined Ganassi. I even said, "no one is expecting Palou to immediately be a race winner."

Oops. 

That is exactly what Palou did, winning his first race with Chip Ganassi Racing, and the rest is history. 

But in 2020, I think what was written were realistic expectations for Palou, a driver who had a podium finish as a rookie but only three top ten finishes in 14 races. Palou wasn't even Rookie of the Year. He was 61 points off Rinus VeeKay, who had a podium finish of his own, three top five finishes and a pole position. Palou scored 62 points fewer than his Coyne teammates Santino Ferrucci and 63 points fewer than Ericsson in his sophomore season. Thinking Palou could replicate Ericsson's sophomore output in his sophomore season wasn't a crazy thought. It was sound thinking. After all, we had not seen a sophomore champion since Sébastien Bourdais in 2004, and that was during the split when neither IRL nor Champ Car grid was not at its strongest. 

More oxygen was spent on Jimmie Johnson joining Ganassi and IndyCar than Palou in those days, and that was understandable. A seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion was joining IndyCar. I don't think anyone thought Johnson would be a contender running only the road and street course races, but it was a seismic shift the likes IndyCar had not seen since Nigel Mansell in 1993 even if we all knew the results would not be spectacular and even if we knew Johnson would not be in IndyCar for long. It was apparent then that it would be a two-year experiment, and it didn't get extended for a third year.

But it is more than Palou. Could we really have expected McLaughlin to be a championship contender in 2024? At Team Penske, anyone can be a contender, but McLaughlin was only days removed from his IndyCar debut. Delayed due to the pandemic, McLaughlin jumped in cold and months after he showed up at preseason testing and ran well, but testing is different than a race weekend. McLaughlin showed growing pains, but that was expected then. He still was going to have Newgarden and Will Power. To be the best in IndyCar, McLaughlin would at least have to beat those two, a mighty ask of any driver and even more substantial for someone who was not coming from a single-seater background.

At the conclusion of 2020, when considering who would be the next new champion, the two title-less drivers in the top five in the championship were the leading contenders. Colton Herta turned a corner. Patricio O'Ward looked very competitive. Four years later and they still combine for zero championships. They have won their races and had their fair days, but each has shown flaws. Both were winless in 2023. Too often do Herta and O'Ward show vulnerability, something we rarely see from Palou. 

No titles in the last four seasons does not mean it is over for Herta and O'Ward. They are 24 years old and 25 years old respectively. They each have a lot of time left. As crazy as it seems to write this, but there is a good chance both will win a championship in their IndyCar careers. Maybe within the next four seasons, maybe in the next decade, maybe one has to wait until the twilight of a career at 43 years of age, but the last four years show how rare things can go the way we expect it. 

At the end of 2008, did we really expect Will Power to become the all-time leader in pole positions, one of the top five drivers in victories and have two championships with an Indianapolis 500 victory? Did we think Ryan Hunter-Reay would win a title before Hélio Castroneves and have an Indianapolis 500 victory of his own? Did we think Castroneves would end his career without a title? Did any of us see Simon Pagenuad becoming a champion and Indianapolis 500 winner? Were we sure Dario Franchitti was about to win three consecutive championships? 

The answer is probably no to all of that. Heck, at the end of 2020, I don't think anyone was certain we were going to see Castroneves win a fifth Indianapolis 500. It only took seven months for that to be proven wrong. Four years ago, I thought Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing would be fine. Whoops! 

As much as we expect and predict for the future at one moment in time, it rarely ever goes exactly as we envision in our heads, even if these thoughts are led with reason. Emotions can get in the way, but if a person remains true to empirical data to set expectations, we are doing it in the most honest way possible, using what we have seen to set the bar for the future. Anyone can throw something crazy at the wall but we all know in that moment it will not stick, but a person sitting down and crafting a logical set of events for the future can still be equally as wrong even if this person has generated significantly more thought. 

And then that leads to where we are now. Four years later and Palou is a three-time IndyCar champion. Nobody had that coming on October 28, 2020. Nothing had happened to lead us to believe that the first half of this decade would become known for the Catalan driver's dominance, and here we are. 

We are all sitting here thinking we know exactly what will occur between now and October 28, 2028, but we really have no clue. A few things will happen that make sense, but there are plenty of surprising things to come, no matter how much thought we put into what we think will come next.

Champion From the Weekend
Ai Ogura clinched the Moto2 World Championship with a runner-up finish at Buriram.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jared Thomas, but did you know...

Carlos Sainz, Jr. won the Mexican Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Thai Grand Prix, his ninth victory of the season. Enea Bastianini won the sprint race. Arón Canet won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his 12th victory of the season.

Tyler Reddick won the NASCAR Cup race from Homestead, his third victory of the season. Austin Hill won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season. Grant Enfinger won the Truck race, his second consecutive victory.

Cam Waters and Brodie Kostecki split the Supercars races from Surfers Paradise.

Coming Up This Weekend
The FIA World Endurance Championship finale from Bahrain. 
MotoGP's penultimate round from Malaysia. 
NASCAR's penultimate round from Martinsville.
Super GT's penultimate round from Motegi.
The Brazilian Grand Prix with a sprint race.