Sunday, March 11, 2018

Morning Warm-Up: St. Petersburg 2018

The rookies are doing alright and this one leads the field to the first green flag of 2018
Robert Wickens starts his IndyCar career from pole position. The Canadian driver of the #6 Honda ran a 1:01.6643 lap, the fastest lap in the final session of qualifying and in doing so he is in elite company. Wickens becomes the third driver since 1956 to win pole position in his first race joining Nigel Mansell in 1993 at Surfers Paradise and Sébastien Bourdais in 2003 at St. Petersburg. Wickens is attempting to become the first driver to win on debut since Buzz Calkins won on January 21, 1996 at Orlando, the first race of the Indy Racing League. Wickens won five pole positions in his Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters career and won from pole position twice. He could become the first Canadian to win from pole position since Paul Tracy at Cleveland on June 16, 2005. Will Power starts beside the Canadian on the front row. This is Power's ninth time qualifying on the front row in 11 St. Petersburg appearances. He has never qualified outside the top six at St. Petersburg. Power has won from second on the grid twice in his career but both occurred in Canada, Toronto 2010 and Edmonton 2011. 

Row two features two rookies with Jordan King starting third and Matheus Leist starting fourth. King's third place position on the grid is Ed Carpenter Racing's best starting position on a road/street course since Josef Newgarden started third at Mid-Ohio. His best starting position last year in Formula Two was third at the Hungaroring. King broke the track record in his round one group two with a lap at 1:00.0476. Leist started fourth on his Indy Lights debut last year at St. Petersburg but he retired from the race after losing power. Takuma Sato and Ryan Hunter-Reay will start on row three. Sato started and finished fifth in last year's St. Petersburg race and this is the third time in four years Sato has started fifth for this race. He has six consecutive starts in the top ten at St. Petersburg. This is Hunter-Reay's fifth time starting in the top six at St. Petersburg in 11 starts. Hunter-Reay has five top ten finishes in six St. Petersburg races during the DW12-era and four of those are top five finishes. 

James Hinchcliffe will start seventh. This is the sixth time Hinchcliffe has started seventh in his career. In his five previous seventh-place starts Hinchcliffe has never finished better than his starting position with his best finish being eighth. Gabby Chaves matches his career-best starting position in eighth position. This is Chaves' best starting position on a road/street course. His previous best road/street course start was 15th at Belle Isle II in 2016. This is Chaves' first time racing at St. Petersburg since 2015. On row five are former Chip Ganassi Racing teammates Scott Dixon and Tony Kanaan. Dixon was the only driver to make the Fast Six session on all nine occasions last season. The next closest drivers were Power and Hélio Castroneves each with seven Fast Six appearances. Dixon started ninth at St. Petersburg in 2015 and finished 15th that day. Kanaan finished 12th in last year's race, only the second time in 13 St. Petersburg race he did not finish in the top ten. Dixon and Kanaan are tied for most St. Petersburg starts on 13 apiece. 

Simon Pagenaud starts outside the top ten for the second consecutive year at St. Petersburg with the Frenchman rolling off from 11th position besides Alexander Rossi. Pagenaud has failed to start in the top ten in five of seven St. Petersburg appearances. The furthest back Pagenaud has won from in his career is sixth. Rossi was set to advance to the Fast Six before the Californian was handed a penalty nullifying his fastest two laps in the session. Rossi has finished a lap down in both his St. Petersburg starts. Defending champion Josef Newgarden starts his title defense from 13th on the grid. Newgarden was one of three drivers to advance to round two on all nine occasions last year. The last time Newgarden did not advance from round one of road/street course qualifying was Road America 2016 when he caused a red flag during the session. Newgarden's eighth place finish last year was his best at St. Petersburg. Defending St. Petersburg race winner Sébastien Bourdais starts next to Newgarden on row seven. Bourdais' last three victories have come from starting positions outside the top ten after his first 33 victory had all come from top ten starting positions. 

Zach Veach makes his Andretti Autosport debut from 15th on the grid with Spencer Pigot making it an all-American row eight. In six starts at St. Petersburg in Road to Indy competition Veach has a victory, a third, a fifth and three finishes outside the top ten. Pigot has finished outside the top ten in six consecutive starts. Ed Jones makes his Chip Ganassi Racing debut from 17th on the grid with Marco Andretti in 18th. Jones finished tenth in last year's race from 18th on the grid. Jones ended the 2017 season with seven consecutive finishes outside the top ten. Andretti was going to advance to round two before he was penalized for blocking Pigot during his qualifying group. Jack Harvey and Max Chilton make it an all-British and all-new team row ten with the drivers representing Michael Shank Racing and Carlin respectively. This is Harvey's second consecutive race starting 19th while it is Chilton's worst starting spot since he started 20th at Long Beach last year. 

Charlie Kimball makes his Carlin debut from 21st on the grid. This is the first time Kimball has started outside the top twenty since he started 23rd at Pocono in 2015 because of an accident in qualifying. Zachary Claman De Melo starts 22nd for his second career IndyCar start. He started 21st on his debut last year at Sonoma. René Binder and Graham Rahal make up the final row of the grid. Binder is set to become the first Austrian to start an IndyCar race since Hubert Stromberger started 27th and finished 16th, one lap down at Road America on July 9, 1995. He will be the fifth Austrian to start an IndyCar race. The only Austrian with a top ten finish in IndyCar was Joe Jagersberger, who finished fifth out of six cars in a race that took place on a 8.1-mile road course in Philadelphia on October 9, 1911. Rahal had his fastest two laps taken off the board after he spun and caused a red flag in his qualifying group. This is Rahal's worst starting position since the 100th Indianapolis 500 when he started 26th. 

ABC's coverage of the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg begins at 12:30 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 110 laps.


Thursday, March 8, 2018

Track Walk: St. Petersburg 2018

Another epoch begins in IndyCar
The 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series season opener will be the 15th Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Josef Newgarden enters as the defending champion and he has taken over the #1 from his teammate Simon Pagenaud. While Newgarden became the first American champion in five years, he will be looking to be the first American to win at St. Petersburg in ten years. Two-dozen cars are entered for the season opener with 11 different nationalities represented. The United States has the most drivers on the grid with eight representatives. Canada and England each has three drivers entered with Brazil and France each represented by two drivers. New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Austria, Colombia and the United Arab Emirates each have one driver on the grid.

Coverage:
Time: Coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday March 11th with green flag scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET.
TV Channel: ABC
Announcers: Allen Bestwick, Scott Goodyear and Eddie Cheever will be in the booth. Rick DeBruhl and Jon Beekhuis will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 11:20 a.m. ET (45-minute session)
Second Practice: 3:10 p.m. ET (45-minute session)
Saturday:
Third Practice: 11:10 a.m. ET (45-minute session)
Qualifying: 2:20 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Warm-Up: 8:45 a.m. ET (30-minute session)
Race: 12:40 p.m. ET (110 laps)

How Important is a Good Start to the Season?
Nobody wants to start a season on a bad note but how fatal could it to championship hopes? Does the first race necessarily predict how the season will play out?

The first race might not be the best barometer but it does signal that it is difficult to over come a poor start. Since the 1947 AAA National Championship season, 86 American open-wheel series championship have been awarded. Of those 86 champions, 26 won the first race of the season with the most recent champion to win the season opener being Will Power in 2014. Last year, Josef Newgarden finished eighth in the St. Petersburg season opener in what was the first race of his championship season; he was the 30th champion to start the season with a finish outside the top five.

Strangely, of the 30 champions to start the season with a finish outside the top five, 18 of them started the season with a finish outside the top ten with the most recent champion to overcome a finish outside the top ten being Scott Dixon, who finished 15th in the season opener in 2015. Five champions have started the season with a finish outside the top twenty with those five drivers being Greg Ray (22nd in 1999 season opener), Tom Sneva (22nd in 1978), Danny Sullivan (23rd in 1988), Bobby Rahal (24th in 1987) and Henry Banks (25th in 1950).

Winning early is important as 69 of 86 champions scored a victory within the first five races of a season but once again, Scott Dixon is the most recent driver to break the mold. Dixon did not win until the 11th race of the season in his 2013 championship season. He is one of three champions to take more than 10 races to get his first victory joining Al Unser, whose first victory came 14 races in during the 1985 season, and Gil de Ferran, who did not win until race number 17 in 2001. There have been three winless champions, Scott Sharp in the odd 1996 IRL season where he shared the title with Buzz Calkins, Tom Sneva in 1978 and Tony Bettenhausen in 1958.

If you can't get a win early, you better get a podium. Only once since 1947 has the champion taken more than five races to get a podium finish and that was Jimmy Bryan, who didn't get a top-three finish until the sixth race in 1956. It wasn't until the fifth race of the 2000 season for Gil de Ferran to get his first top five finish and no other champion has taken more races for a top five finish. Only one champion has failed to get a top ten finish in the first three races. That driver was Danny Sullivan in 1988 and his first top ten finish was in the fourth race of the season.

We can't crown a champion at St. Petersburg but we can start to get an idea who we can look to scratch out by the time we reach Barber Motorsports Park at the end of April.

Chevrolet vs. Honda: Round Three
We have had the original DW12 aero kit, the manufacture aero kits and now we move onto the universal aero kit. Chevrolet has dominated the previous two iterations of DW12 bodywork. Chevrolet is six-for-six when it comes to manufactures' championship since the American make returned to IndyCar in 2012. Chevrolet drivers have won five of six drivers' championship with the lone exception being Scott Dixon in 2013.

Honda has been thoroughly beaten during the two most recent IndyCar epochs but last season and this preseason may signal a turnaround. Last season, Honda won seven races with all five Honda teams getting on the scoreboard. The Japanese manufacture won four of five street course races while taking victories in the Indianapolis 500, Road America and Watkins Glen. Team Penske might have taken four of the top five in the championship but Honda drivers took the remaining six positions in the top ten and ten of the top fifteen.

Winter has been kind to Honda, most notable Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The team topped every session at the Phoenix preseason test with Takuma Sato fastest overall. Sato and Graham Rahal both topped the unofficial test session at Sebring last week with Rahal posting the fastest time of the day. At Phoenix, Honda took five of the top eight spots and six of the top ten with three teams represented in the top ten. At Sebring, Honda took the top three spots in the morning session on Wednesday February 28th. Honda had three of the top five in the afternoon that day.

Andretti Autosport had three cars in the top ten at the Phoenix test, tied with Team Penske for most cars in the top ten. The issue for Andretti Autosport is Marco Andretti was the top driver for the team, sixth overall. The good news for Andretti Autosport is Andretti and Alexander Rossi were both faster than Scott Dixon at the Phoenix test with the four-time champion eighth fastest.

Ryan Hunter-Reay rounded out the top ten in the Phoenix test with last year's St. Petersburg winner Sébastien Bourdais 11th-quickest and Bourdais' former teammate, Ed Jones 12th-fastest with Chip Ganassi Racing. Bourdais is attempting to become the third driver to successfully defend a St. Petersburg victory. Hélio Castroneves won the event in 2006 and 2007 while Juan Pablo Montoya won in 2015 and 2016. Bourdais' victory was Honda's first win at St. Petersburg in the DW12-era.

The Honda team bringing up the rear at the Phoenix test was Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. Robert Wickens was faster than his senior teammate James Hinchcliffe with Wickens 16th while Hinchcliffe was 22nd, second-slowest overall and the slowest Honda. The good news for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports is its partner-in-crime, Michael Shank Racing, had a respectable outing at Sebring. Jack Harvey was second quickest to Sato in the morning while in the afternoon he and Sato posted the same time, tied for fourth.

Along with Honda's manufactures' championship drought, it has yet to win more races in a season than Chevrolet during the DW12-era.

While Honda has looked strong, Chevrolet does not appear to be going anywhere. Will Power was second fastest at the Phoenix test with new A.J. Foyt Racing driver Tony Kanaan in third and defending champion Josef Newgarden in fourth. Newgarden was also the fastest driver at the Sebring test on February 27th. Simon Pagenaud was ninth at the Phoenix test. Meanwhile, Spencer Pigot was in the top five in both sessions on the Wednesday of the Sebring test.

Carlin is new ship in the Chevrolet armada but the team has yet to get in the same zip code as the other Chevrolet teams. Charlie Kimball and Max Chilton did not break the top ten in the Tuesday sessions at Sebring when 15 cars participated. In the Wednesday test, the best Carlin did was sixth out of nine cars. Harding Racing makes its street course debut with Gabby Chaves. Chaves was eighth in both Wednesday sessions at Sebring.

Who Can be the Surprise Rookie?
There is a lot of youth on the IndyCar grid with seven rookies entered for St. Petersburg, four of which will be making debuts this weekend.

We touched upon Wickens and Harvey above. Wickens makes his IndyCar debut while Harvey is set to make his fourth career start with his third different team. Wickens hasn't run many street courses with the only street course on the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters schedule being the famed Norisring. The good news for Wickens is he did quite well at the Norisring with two victories, four podium finishes and five top ten finishes in nine starts. The bad news for Wickens is in his final two years at the Norisring he retired from the first race and finished 11th in the second race each year. His most recent street course race in a single-seater was in the GP3 Series at Valencia in 2010. He finished second and 16th in those two races. He finished second at the Norisring in the Formula Three Euro Series in 2008 and his only A1GP victory came on the streets of Durban on February 24, 2008. In the 2007 Atlantics Championship season, Wickens had three podium finishes in five street course races.

Harvey never won on a street circuit in his two seasons of Indy Lights but he did have his fair share of good results. In eight street course starts, Harvey had six podium finishes, a finish of fourth and a finish of tenth. He finished second in both St. Petersburg races in 2015 and finished third on his Indy Lights debut at St. Petersburg in 2014. Harvey did sweep the Formula BMW Europe races at Valencia in 2010.

Zach Veach and Zachary Claman De Melo are not making debuts but they are both with new teams. After running a race with Ed Carpenter Racing and one with A.J. Foyt Racing in 2017, Veach moves to Andretti Autosport and Honda. Five of Veach's six seasons in the Road to Indy system were with Andretti Autosport and he picked up his first career Indy Lights victory with the team at St. Petersburg in 2014. Veach also had a strong race at St. Petersburg in the 2016 Indy Lights season opener before a mechanical problem. De Melo made his debut in the 2017 season finale with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and he stays within the Honda camp but joins Dale Coyne Racing. His Indy Lights street course record is not as exciting as Veach's, as his best finish in four St. Petersburg starts was seventh but he ended on a high-note with finishes of second and third at Toronto last year.

Matheus Leist is another driver with a poor Indy Lights record on street courses. The Brazilian finished 15th and 11th last year at St. Petersburg and 13th in the first race at Toronto. Leist did end on a high-note, just like De Melo, with a fifth-place finish in the second Toronto race.

There are two rookies from Europe. Jordan King takes a seat behind the #20 Fuzzy's Ultra Premium Vodka Chevrolet for Ed Carpenter Racing, as he is the new road and street course driver. King will be the second driver to make an IndyCar debut with Ed Carpenter Racing; Zach Veach was the first. King scored points in 13 of 22 Formula Two races last year, including in nine of 11 feature races. René Binder comes to IndyCar in the #32 Juncos Racing Chevrolet. Binder won his most recent race, the Formula V8 3.5 finale at Bahrain. While Binder won four races last year, it was the first time the Austrian had won since the 2012 German Formula Three season.

Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series hold their season openers this weekend at St. Petersburg and 51 drivers are entered across the three series.

Ten cars are entered in Indy Lights including both of last year's St. Petersburg winners. Aaron Telitz and Colton Herta are both back and both stay with Belardi Auto Racing and Andretti Steinbrenner Racing respectively. Herta finished second to Telitz in race one last year while Telitz finished fifth in race two. Santiago Urrutia returns for his third time at St. Petersburg in Indy Lights. Between six starts in Indy Lights and Pro Mazda at Urrutia has finished second twice, fourth twice and 13th twice.

Herta has three teammates this season with Dalton Kellett and Ryan Norman returning and Patricio O'Ward joins the team after running in IMSA's Prototype Challenge class in 2017. O'Ward made four starts last year in Indy Lights with Team Pelfrey. He finished third in race two last year at St. Petersburg. The Mexican driver won at St. Petersburg in Pro Mazda in 2016.

Juncos Racing has two new drivers with Victor Franzoni taking a promotion after his Pro Mazda championship and former Force India test driver Alfonso Celis, Jr. joins the team. Franzoni won his first start at St. Petersburg in U.S. F2000 in 2014. He has not won at the track since then and he finished second in both Pro Mazda races last year. With two Mexican drivers on the grid, it is likely either O'Ward or Celis, Jr., will become the first Mexican driver to win an Indy Lights races since Mario Domínguez won at Homestead on March 21, 1999. Team Pelfrey returns with two American drivers. Neil Alberico moves over from Carlin while Shelby Blackstock joins the team from Belardi Auto Racing.

The last three Indy Lights races from St. Petersburg have been won from pole position while five of six St. Petersburg races since the introduction of the IL-15 chassis have not had a lead change.

The first race of the Indy Lights season will take place at 1:05 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th. Race two will be at 10:45 a.m. ET on Sunday March 11th

The Pro Mazda grid has increased to 16 entries for what will be the first race for the Tatuus PM-18 chassis.

Reigning U.S. F2000 champion Oliver Askew moves up to Pro Mazda and with Cape Motorsports where his teammate will be Nikita Lastochkin. Also moving up from U.S. F2000 is vice-champion Rinus Veekay, who joins Juncos Racing along side Carlos Cunha, the best returning Pro Mazda driver from the 2017 season and Robert Megennis moves up to Pro Mazda as well with Juncos Racing.

After three years in U.S. F2000 Parker Thompson has moved to Pro Mazda with Exclusive Autosport in an all-Canadian line-up with Antonio Serravalle. After a successful part-time U.S. F2000 campaign David Malukas and BN Racing are now in Pro Mazda and Kris Wright will be in the team's second entry.

Sting Ray Robb moves to Team Pelfrey where his teammates will be Rafael Martins and Andrés Gutiérrez. RP Motorsport joins the series from Europe. The Italian team has competed in the Formula V8 3.5 Series, Euroformula Open Cup and Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0. Harrison Scott won the Euroformula Open Cup title last year with RP Motorsport. Ludovico Laurini also moves over with the team from Euroformula Open Cup to Pro Mazda.

Cape Motorsports swept last year's St. Petersburg weekend and the team swept in 2015 as well. Juncos Racing has won five Pro Mazda races at St. Petersburg while Team Pelfrey has four victories at St. Petersburg.

The Pro Mazda season opener takes place on Saturday March 10th at 12:10 p.m. ET with race two scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday March 11th.

The bottom tier of the Road to Indy system has the largest grid of the three series as 25 cars are entered for the U.S. F2000 season opener.

Last year, Cape Motorsports won the championship with Oliver Askew and this year Cape Motorsports has hired Askew's fellow 2016 Team USA Scholarship recipient Kyle Kirkwood, who won last year's Formula 4 United States Championship. Kirkwood is not the only Formula 4 championship on the grid. Reigning F4 British Championship Jamie Caroline comes over from the United Kingdom with BN Racing but he will be racing this weekend with no testing.

Pabst Racing has three returning drivers with one promising rookie entering the fold. Kaylen Frederick, Calvin Ming and Lucas Kohl finished fourth, fifth and seventh in the 2017 U.S. F2000 championship and all three are now teammates. Swedish driver Rasmus Lindh joins the team and he was quick in testing. Lindh is coming straight out of karting.

Another driver making the transition to car racing that was fast in testing was Team Pelfrey's Kyle Dupell. His teammates will be South African Julian Van der Watt and Brazilian Bruna Tomaselli.

A few other driver to keep an eye on are Road to Indy Scholarship winner Keith Donegan, who will be driving for ArmsUp Motorsports, Newman Wachs Racing drivers Darren Keane and David Osborne, and DEForce Racing drivers Zach Holden, Kory Enders and José Sierra.

Cape Motorsports has won five times in U.S. F2000 at St. Petersburg while Pabst Racing has four St. Petersburg victories after the team swept the weekend in 2014 and 2015. Team Pelfrey got its first U.S. F2000 victory at St. Petersburg last year with Robert Megennis.

Race one of the U.S. F2000 season will be at 10:15 a.m. ET on Saturday March 10th with race two scheduled for 5:25 p.m. ET on Sunday March 11th.

If you want a full preview of all three Road to Indy series, check out this extensive preview.

Pirelli World Challenge
It isn't just open-wheel cars getting the 2018 season underway this weekend. Pirelli World Challenge opens its season on the streets of St. Petersburg with both GT and GTS classes on track.

In GT, 12 cars are entered. Álvaro Parente won last year's season opener at St. Petersburg and he returns looking for his second title in three years but he will have to do it driving a Bentley after spending the first two seasons driving a McLaren for K-PAX Racing. Parente will also have a new teammate in the form of GTA driver Rodrigo Baptista, who moves up from GTS.

Daniel Mancinelli took a surprise pole position last year at St. Petersburg and he is back in the #31 Ferrari for TR3 Racing. He will have steep competition within the Ferrari family as Toni Vilander joins R. Ferri Motorsport and 2016 GTA champion Martin Fuentes returns.

Porsche factory driver Michael Christensen will drive for Alegra Motorsports and IMSA Porsche GT3 Cup Challenge Canada champion Scott Hargrove moves to PWC with Pfaff Motorsports. Daniel Morad returns in the #2 Mercedes for CRP Racing. Daniel Keilwitz joins the series with the introduction of the Callaway Corvertte. TRG returns to PWC with Spencer Pumpelly driving the #00 Aston Martin. Parker Chase moves up from GTS and he is in the only Audi on the GT grid as he will drive for TruSpeed Autosport. Last year's GT Cup champion Yuki Harata moves up to GTA in the #55 Dream Racing Motorsport Lamborghini.

The first GT race will be at 3:50 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th. Race two will be at 3:15 p.m. ET Sunday March 11th.

Lawson Aschenbach will defend his title in GTS and the Blackdog Racing Chevrolet Camaro driver will be looking for his fourth GTS title and fifth PWC title overall. Ian James ended the 2017 season on a high note and the Panoz driver will give Aschenbach tough competition all season. James will have GTSA competition Preston Calvert as his teammate.

Nate Stacy and Jade Buford will be two Ford Mustang GT4 drivers looking to break up the Camaro vs. Panoz battle. James Sofronas moves to GTS and will drive an Audi for GMG Racing. Flying Lizard Motorsports will field two Audis for Adam Merzon and Mike Hedlund, both GTSA drivers.

Gabriele Piana won the Dubai 24 Hour in January with Black Falcon and he will drive the #21 Porsche for Mühlner Motorsports America. Other drivers to keep an eye on are Harry Gottsacker in a SIN R1 GT4 for Racers Edge Motorsports and Robinson Racing Mercedes-Benz drivers Shane Lewis and Gar Robinson.

GTS will race at 5:05 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th and at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday March 11th.

For a full Pirelli World Challenge preview, click here.

Fast Facts
This will be the third IndyCar race to take place on March 11th and the first since Cristiano da Matta won the 2001 CART season opener from Monterrey. The other IndyCar race to take place on March 11th was in 1973 and Gordon Johncock won that day at Phoenix.

Since St. Petersburg returned to the IndyCar schedule in 2005, Team Penske has never failed to win at St. Petersburg in successive seasons.

Team Penske has never won the season opener in a year ending with the number eight.

Last year's St. Petersburg race had the fastest average speed in event history. The race was completed with an average speed of 95.391 MPH.

The slowest St. Petersburg race was the time-shortened wet race in 2008 with an average speed of 74.251 MPH.

Last year, Sébastien Bourdais won from 21st on the grid. He was the first St. Petersburg winner to start outside the top ten. The previous worst starting position for a St. Petersburg winner was ninth (Dan Wheldon 2005 and Graham Rahal 2008)

Graham Rahal is the only American driver to win the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

Will Power could tie Hélio Castroneves for most Grand Prix of St. Petersburg victories at three.

Seven different nationalities have won the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

No driver has won at St. Petersburg in IndyCar and Indy Lights. Marco Andretti, Josef Newgarden, Zach Veach and Ed Jones have all won in Indy Lights at St. Petersburg.

The Grand Prix of St. Petersburg race winner has led the most laps in eight of 14 editions but the driver who led the most laps has only won two of six races in the DW12-era.

The average starting position for a St. Petersburg winner is 5.35 with a median of four.

Before last year's race, the winners of the previous four St. Petersburg races all won from fourth on the grid.

In the DW12-era, the St. Petersburg winner has never started on the front row.

The average number of lead changes in a St. Petersburg race is 6.142 with a median of 6.5.

The fewest number of lead changes in a St. Petersburg race is two with the most being ten.

The average number of cautions in a St. Petersburg race is 4.142 with a median of five. The average number of caution laps is 18.928 with a median of 18.

Every St. Petersburg race has had at least two caution periods.

Last year's race had eight caution laps, the fewest in the history of the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

Possible Milestones:
Simon Pagenaud needs to lead 95 laps to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.

Graham Rahal needs to lead 50 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.

Predictions
Graham Rahal wins the season opener with Takuma Sato making it two RLLR cars in the top five. Penske puts two cars in the top five and one will be Josef Newgarden. Spencer Pigot makes it to the second round of qualifying, as does Marco Andretti. Jack Harvey finishes ahead of both Schmidt Peterson Motorsports drivers. Gabby Chaves finishes in the top 15 but doesn't get shown once on the broadcast. Sébastien Bourdais qualifies better than 21st but leads fewer laps than last year. There will not be a caution during a pit cycle that shuffles up the field. Sleeper: Jack Harvey.


Wednesday, March 7, 2018

2018 Road to Indy Preview

The Road to Indy system has been a successful tool for getting drivers to IndyCar. This year's IndyCar grid includes four of eight Indy Lights champions since the start of the Road to Indy system in 2010. There is also a Pro Mazda champion on the grid. Besides champions, there are race winners from Indy Lights, Pro Mazda and U.S. F2000 set participate in this weekend's IndyCar season opener.

Along with the two-dozen IndyCar entries, 51 cars are entered in the three Road to Indy series. There are a handful of drivers on the doorstep of IndyCar, hoping this will be the year that can put them over the top and into the top series in America open-wheel racing. Other drivers are just getting started. Some are teenagers with a dream but a dream that relies on a paycheck and the only way to get it is by winning a championship. You have Americans, Mexicans, Canadians, Britons, Brazilians and drivers from many other nations vying for a ticket to the next level with the hope of one day making it to IndyCar.

This preview will look at all 51 drivers entered this weekend at Indy Lights, Pro Mazda and U.S. F2000. It will give you a recap of what that driver did in 2017 with what to expect in 2018.

Indy Lights
The Indy Lights grid unfortunately sees a reduction in size. Only three teams are set to field ten cars for the St. Petersburg season opener. On the other hand, of those ten drivers there are four or five drivers that could separate themselves from the rest of the grid and make for an interesting championship battle.

St. Petersburg opens the season with a doubleheader March 10th and 11th. The series takes five weeks off and returns for a doubleheader at Barber Motorsports Park April 21 and 22nd. The third round of the season will be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis weekend on May 11-12th with the Freedom 100 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway being the first oval of the season on May 25th.

Indy Lights takes a month off after the Freedom 100 but returns for two races at Road America on June 23rd and 24th. Iowa is the second oval race of the season on July 8th and the following week will be the only other street course on the schedule, Toronto on July 14-15th.

Mid-Ohio holds doubleheader July 28th and 29th before another month off before the final oval race of the season at Gateway on August 25th. The 2018 season concludes with a doubleheader at Portland on September 1st and 2nd.

Teams:
Belardi Auto Racing
Santiago Urrutia: #5 Belardi Auto Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Second in the Indy Lights championship. Two victories and nine podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Urrutia has finished runner-up both years he has raced in Indy Lights. He is ready for IndyCar. The only question is will he have the funding to carry out a full season? He can win races and ended 2017 on a high note. If the money is there Urrutia will be fighting for the title.

Aaron Telitz: #9 Rice Lake Weighing Systems Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Sixth in the Indy Lights championship. Two victories and four podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Telitz won the bookends of the 2017 season but he had a few rough days in the middle. He is a good driver but I am not sure that will be enough to win the championship. He will get a handful of podium finishes.

Juncos Racing
Alfonso Celis, Jr.: #7 Juncos Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Third in the Formula V8 3.5 Series. One victory and seven podium finishes. Force India test driver at three races.
What to expect in 2018: Celis, Jr. has been all over the place in Europe but does not have many results to show for it. His victory at Spa-Francorchamps was his first victory since entering European competition in 2012. I think he will have a few good days but not contend for the title.

Victor Franzoni: #23 Mazda Motorsports Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 Pro Mazda champion. Six victories and 12 podium finishes from 12 races. His worst finish all season was second.
What to expect in 2018: Franzoni has busted his butt to get to Indy Lights and he knows most of these tracks. There could be some growing pains with the IL-15 chassis but I think he will beat his teammate on a regular basis. He could win a race but he should definitely score a few podium finishes.

Andretti Autosport
Patricio O'Ward: #27 CDMX Mexico City Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 IMSA Prototype Challenge champion. Made four Indy Lights starts and finished fifth and third at St. Petersburg.
What to expect in 2018: This is the championship favorite. O'Ward was unfortunate not to win the 2016 Pro Mazda championship, a year where he was stellar. He looked good in sports cars last year and he looked good in the LMP2 car he ran at Daytona in January. He will win multiple races.

Dalton Kellett: #28 K-Line Insulators USA, Inc. Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 12th in the Indy Lights championship. Two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: In six years in the Road to Indy system, Kellett has never finished better than 10th in a championship. There are only ten cars entered for St. Petersburg and there likely won't be many more than that for the rest of the season. In 91 Road to Indy starts he has five podium finishes. Don't get your hopes up.

Ryan Norman: #48 Journey Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 11th in the Indy Lights championship. One top five finish (4th in first Road America race).
What to expect in 2018: Norman was solid in his first year in the Indy Lights car. He is 19 years old but I think he is a distance off the top drivers in Indy Lights.

Colton Herta: #98 Andretti Steinbrenner Racing/Curb Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Third in the Indy Lights championship. Two victories and seven podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Herta looked good in 2017 and most of the bad days seemed to be out of his hands. His teammate O'Ward will provide a tough championship challenge, as will Urrutia. Herta will win races in 2018 and he will be in the title fight. Remember, Herta will still be 17 years old at the season opener and his birthday is March 30th. There is a lot of time for Herta. Give him time if it doesn't all come together this year.

Team Pelfrey
Neil Alberico: #2 Rising Star Racing/Gap Guard Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Eighth in the Indy Lights championship. Two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Alberico had promising years in U.S. F2000 and Pro Mazda but Indy Lights has been a struggle. Last year, Alberico started strong with two podium finishes and five top five finishes in the first seven races. It did not end well with five top ten finishes in the final nine and his best finish was sixth. This deal has been thrown together late, who knows if he runs the full season. This is the year Alberico has to produce results.

Shelby Blackstock: #3 Starstruck/Gap Guard Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Tenth in the Indy Lights championship. One podium finish.
What to expect in 2018: Blackstock brings the car home in one piece but his only Road to Indy victory was on July 21, 2013 in Pro Mazda. He might get a podium finish or two if there is a lot of attrition in a race.

Pro Mazda
After a shortened 2017 season for Pro Mazda as the series transitioned to the Tatuus PM-18 chassis, Pro Mazda is back with the new chassis ready to go, many new drivers and a 16-race schedule, 25% more than last season.

St. Petersburg opens the season with races on March 10th and 11th and Pro Mazda will be with IndyCar and Indy Lights at Barber on April 21st and 22nd and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis May 11th and 12th. Pro Mazda returns to Indianapolis Raceway Park with a race May 25th and like Indy Lights, Pro Mazda will take a month off before returning for a doubleheader at Road America on June 23rd and 24th.

Pro Mazda will be at Toronto July 14th and 15th. Mid-Ohio will be a doubleheader this year instead of a triple header with races July 28th and 29th. Pro Mazda's second and final oval race will be at Gateway on August 25th and the season ends with a doubleheader at Portland on September 1st and 2nd.

Teams:
Juncos Racing
Carlos Cunha: #1 Juncos Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Third in the Pro Mazda championship. Six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Cunha had a good finish to the 2017 Pro Mazda season though with a smaller grid. I think he will have a handful of good race and could win a race or two.

Rinus VeeKay: #2 Jumbo Supermarkets/La Place Restaurants/KNAF Talent First Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Second in the U.S. F2000 championship. Three victories and 12 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: VeeKay was solid in U.S. F2000 and he looked good at the Homestead test. I don't think he will be on the podium as much as he was in U.S. F2000 but I think he could be the top Juncos Racing driver and finish in the top five of the championship.

Robert Megennis: #9 Palo Alto Networks Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Sixth in the U.S. F2000 championship. One victory.
What to expect in 2018: Megennis won the first race of the U.S. F2000 last year and then never made it back to the podium. I think he will have good days but not be a championship contender and finish somewhere in the back half of the top ten in the championship.

Cape Motorsports
Oliver Askew: #3 Mazda Motorsports/Mockett & Co./Rising Star Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 U.S. F2000 champion. Seven victories and 11 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Askew was impressive in U.S. F2000 but he hasn't been consistently at the top of the time sheets during testing. I think he will turn it around and get results but I don't expect a cakewalk, in fact I would not be surprised if Askew doesn't win the championship. He can win a race but he might have to settle for podium finishes and top five finishes.

Nikita Lastochkin: #8 Russkaya Mekhanika Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Fifth in the Pro Mazda championship. Two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Lastochkin was consistently in the back half of the field in testing. He will get top ten finishes but top five finishes will be few and far in-between.

RP Motorsport
Harrison Scott: #10 epicura/Masterpack Innovative Printing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 Euroformula Open Championship champion. Won 12 of 14 starts.
What to expect in 2018: I think this could be the sleeper. The one thing against Scott is he will be learning all these tracks. I think his results will be better in the second half of the season than in the first half.

Lodovico Laurini: #27 epicura/Laurini Officine Meccaniche Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 18th in the Euroformula Open Championship. Best finish was eighth.
What to expect in 2018: Laurini has been toward the bottom during testing. I think he will finish in the bottom half of the championship.

DEForce Racing
James Raven: #12 DEForce Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Finished third in the Walter Hayes Trophy.
What to expect in 2018: Raven has been good in testing but I think he will be a middle of the road driver all season.

BN Racing
Kris Wright: #78 MasterTech/PPG/Wright Automotive Group Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Tenth in the Pro Mazda championship. Best finish was fifth.
What to expect in 2018: Wright has been around for a few years but has yet to get a real shot at the championship. It will be an average year as I think there are more prepared drivers on the grid.

David Malukas: #79 HMD Trucking Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Tenth in the U.S. F2000 championship. One podium finish.
What to expect in 2018: Malukas was not a full-time driver in U.S. F2000 last year but in the races he was in he looked good. He was fastest at the Barber test. I think he could challenge for the top five in the championship.

Charlie Finelli: #83 Allsport Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Finished third in the Pro Mazda National class. Made six starts and won the class once.
What to expect in 2018: Back of the pack.

Team Pelfrey
Rafael Martins: #80 Gap Guard Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Did not compete but finished ninth in the 2016 F4 British Championship with one victory and two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: For a driver that was out of racing in 2017, Martins was competitive at the Barber test. I think he could sneak in and win a race and he could be another championship sleeper.

Andrés Gutiérrez: #81 Prisma/Riverina Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 23rd in the U.S. F2000 championship after making three starts. Best finish was sixth.
What to expect in 2018: Gutiérrez was as quick as his teammate in the test. He could also win a race or two.

Sting Ray Robb: #82 Trademark Dental/Munk Family Dental/Intervention.com Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Sixth in the Pro Mazda championship. Best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: Robb looked good in testing and he had 2017 as a learning year. I am not convinced he can make a championship push and I think he could finish third of the three Team Pelfrey cars.

Exclusive Autosport
Parker Thompson: #90 Exclusive Autosport/Badlands Motorsport Resort
What did he do in 2017: Third in the U.S. F2000 championship. Three victories and six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Thompson took his time in U.S. F2000 and he is ready for Pro Mazda. He was quick in testing and I think he will be a championship contender. While he took his time in U.S. F2000, I think Thompson could be ready for Indy Lights after this season regardless of if he wins the title or not.

Antonio Serravalle: #91 Exclusive Autosport Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Competed in karting U.S. and Canadian KZ Shifter Kart championships.
What to expect in 2018: This will be Serravalle's first year in car racing. Don't expect much from him as he will be learning.

U.S. F2000
U.S. F2000 has over two-dozen cars entered for the season opener at St. Petersburg and there are many names to keep an eye on.

St. Petersburg will have races on March 10th and 11th but the series will then have two months off before running May 11th and 12th during the Grand Prix of Indianapolis weekend. U.S. F2000 joins Pro Mazda at Indianapolis Raceway Park on May 25th for what will be the only oval race on the U.S. F2000 calendar. The series takes a month off and the series hits the midway point of the calendar at Road America on June 23rd and 24th.

Toronto will be the antepenultimate round with races on July 14th and 15th. U.S. F2000 will run three races at Mid-Ohio over the weekend from July 28th-30th. The series will have over a month off before closing the season with a doubleheader at Portland on September 1st and 2nd.

Teams:
Sol.O Racing
Mathias Soler-Obel: #5 Equidem Management Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 12th in the Formula 4 United States Championship. Best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: Soler-Obel was at the bottom of the time sheets in most of the Homestead test sessions. I think he will struggle a bit.

Cape Motorsports
Kyle Kirkwood: #8 Firstex/SAFEisFAST.com/Bell Helmets/Sparco Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 Formula 4 United States champion. Nine victories and 15 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Kirkwood was ready for U.S. F2000 last year. He was a Team USA Scholarship driver the same year as Oliver Askew. He is with the right team and I think he is one of the championship favorites.

DEForce Racing
Zach Holden: #10 DEForce Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Third in the F1600 Championship. Six victories and 15 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: He was in the middle of the field during testing. I think he will be on the fringe of the top ten in the championship.

Kory Enders: #11 MBSugarland/Caliber Collision/McLaren Houston Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Ninth in the U.S. F2000 championship. One top five finish.
What to expect in 2018: Enders has gained a lot of experience. He was consistently in the top five during testing. I think he will have a good year.

José Sierra: #12 Go-kart Mania/RPLracing/Telcel Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 24th in the U.S. F2000 championship. Made two starts. Finished fourth and eighth at Toronto. Second in the 2016-17 NACAM Formula 4 Championship.
What to expect in 2018: Sierra was regularly in the back half of the top ten in testing. He finished second to Calvin Ming in the NACAM Formula 4 Championship. Ming has been a good driver in U.S. F2000. I think Sierra could get a podium or two.

Colin Kaminsky: #27 Slick Locks Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 18th in the U.S. F2000 championship. Made ten starts. Best finish was eighth.
What to expect in 2018: He was the slowest of the four DEForce Racing entries in testing. I think he will be in the bottom half of the championship.

Swan-RJB Motorsports
Alex Baron: #19 Swan-RJB Motorsports Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 20th in the U.S. F2000 championship. Made four starts. Best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: Alex Baron won an Indy Lights race almost four years ago. I do not know what has plagued his career but if he is full-time he will be a championship contender.

Pabst Racing
Calvin Ming: #21 Mings Products and Services/APAN Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Fifth in the U.S. F2000 championship. Four podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Ming had a few good days in 2017 but he needs to find that extra bit to be a championship contender. He could win a race or two.

Lucas Kohl: #22 Bellko Trading/Kohltrade/IVI Vision Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Seventh in the U.S. F2000 championship. One podium finish.
What to expect in 2018: Kohl was quiet in 2017 and he showed he was a competent. He was in the top five for five of six Homestead test sessions. I think he gives Ming a run for his money but he might not be the best Pabst driver.

Rasmus Lindh: #23 Chicago Pneumatic Mazda 
What did he do in 2017: Fifth in the CIK-FIA World Championship OK Senior Category
What to expect in 2018: The Swede jumped into the car and was fast out of the box. He could be a championship contender and I think he will win a few races.

Kaylen Frederick: #24 Pilot ONE Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Fourth in the U.S. F2000 championship. Five podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Frederick did well last year as a 14-going-on-15-year-old driver and he was in the top five with his teammates for most of the Homestead test. He should win a race this year but his stiffest competition will be coming from in house. Once again, Frederick will only be 16 years old when this season is over. He could spend another year or two in U.S. F2000 and that would be fine.

BN Racing
Jamie Caroline: #28 BN Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 F4 British Championship champion. Won ten of 30 races and had 16 podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Caroline seems to be a highly touted prospect from the United Kingdom. He is jumping into the car with no testing. St. Petersburg might not be his best outing but if he gets a full season I think he could be a driver at the sharp end of the grid on a regular basis and could finish in the top five of the championship.

Russell McDonough: #29 Lost Forty Brewery Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Lucas Oil Formula Series participant.
What to expect in 2018: The Arkansan driver only took part in two test sessions and was 15th in both. He is new to racing having only started last June. I think he be toward the back in most races.

ArmsUp Motorsports
Keith Donegan: #30 Mazda Motorsports
What did he do in 2017: 2017 Road to Indy Scholarship winner. Finished second in the Formula Ford Festival.
What to expect in 2018: Donegan stepped away from racing for a few years before he got back into Formula Fords last year. It is a good story but the Irishman was all over the board during testing. I think he will be battling for a top ten championship finish.

Team Benik
Sabré Cook: #31 Apple Motorsports/Aspen Equity Group Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Team USA Scholarship nominee.
What to expect in 2018: It isn't clear if this team will run full-time. This is a good opportunity for Cook. She doesn't have much car racing experience and she was toward the bottom during testing. It will be a matter of running laps and gaining experience for her.

Michael d'Orlando: #51 Focused Project Management Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Competed in karting series WSK Super Masters Series, CIK FIA European Championship, US Grand Nationals.
What to expect in 2018: Just like Cook, d'Orlando is getting into car racing for the first time. He was in the middle of the field for most of testing.

Newman Wachs Racing
Darren Keane: #36 Cal Development/Keane Architectural Woodwork Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 11th in the U.S. F2000 championship. Made 11 starts. Best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: He was in the top ten regularly during testing. I think he can be a top ten championship driver and he should get a handful of top five finishes.

David Osborne: #37 Newman Wachs Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Fifth in the F1600 Championship Series. One victory and four podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Osborne was not at the Homestead test. It is hard to judge how he will do. the F1600 series has produced some good drivers. I think he is better suited for U.S. F2000 than his teammate below but I am not sure if he can regularly beat Keane on track.

Oscar DeLuzuriaga: #38 Newman Wachs Racing Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Lucas Oil School of Racing Series participant.
What to expect in 2018: This is a big step up for him and he was at the bottom of the time sheets at the Homestead test.

Team Pelfrey
Julian Van der Watt: #80 Race Driver SA/Crossley & Webb Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 South African National Formula 1600 champion.
What to expect in 2018: The South African driver was in the top ten consistently at the Homestead test. I think he will finish somewhere between eighth and 12th in the championship.

Kyle Dupell: #81 Opal Creek Capital/Pro Race Management Mazda
What did he do in 2017: Competed in karting series Can-Am Series, SKUSA Pro Tour and the Rotax MAX Challenge Series Grand Final.
What to expect in 2018: Dupell was the top Team Pelfrey car in the test, breaking into the top five on two occasions. This is his first year in car racing. If testing speeds carry over he could be the breakout Road to Indy star in 2018.

Bruna Tomaselli: #82 Bruna&Bia Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 21st in U.S. F2000 championship. Made 11 starts, two in the National class. Best finish was 12th.
What to expect in 2018: It appears last year helped out Tomaselli as she was just outside the top ten during testing. I think this year will be a big improvement over 2017 but she will be competing mostly for top ten finishes.

Exclusive Autosport
Manuel Cabrera: #90 Group Gateway Mexico Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 Formula PanAm champion.
What to expect in 2018: Cabrera was toward the bottom during the test and I think this year would be best used for gaining experience.

Igor Fraga: #91 Cenibra/Usiminas Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 2017 Formula 3 Brasil Academy class champion.
What to expect in 2018: He was hovering around the top ten during the Homestead test. I think he will have good days but could need a few races to get his feet under him.

Jayson Clunie: #93 Exclusive Management Mazda
What did he do in 2017: 19th in the U.S. F2000 championship. Made nine starts. Best finish was ninth.
What to expect in 2018: Not much.

There you have it. All 51 entries have been previewed. You are informed for all three rungs of the IndyCar ladder system.


Tuesday, March 6, 2018

2018 Pirelli World Challenge Preview

One of five series holding a season opener this weekend at St. Petersburg will be Pirelli World Challenge and it is a series going through a rough patch. Both the GT and GTS seasons start this season but the GT grid is down from 23 entries (14 GT and 9 GTA) for last year's St. Petersburg round to 12 entries (8 GT and 4 GTA). The one bright side is the GTS grid is up from 20 entries to 28 with ten GTS entries and 18 GTSA entries.

St. Petersburg is the opening round for both series with it being the first of ten rounds overall, five using the traditional sprint format and five rounds using the SprintX format. This year marks the first time GTS will solely participate in SprintX rounds instead of being a class within SprintX while GTS ran two sprint races on the same weekend as was done last year.

Circuit of the Americas hosts the first SprintX round on March 23-25th. Only the GT series will head to Long Beach for a race on April 15th, the only non-doubleheader round of the season. Two weeks after Long Beach will be the second SprintX round at Virginia International Raceway. Mosport will be a sprint weekend this season on May 18-20th with Lime Rock Park hosting the third SprintX round over Memorial Day weekend.

After a month off, PWC joins IndyCar at Road America for a sprint weekend on June 22-24th. After the Road America weekend the final three weekends of the PWC season will be standalone weekends. The penultimate SprintX weekend will be at Portland on July 13-15th. It will be the first time PWC has raced at Portland since 2005. Utah Motorsports Campus closes the SprintX season on August 10-12th. While IndyCar will not be spending Labor Day weekend at Watkins Glen, the famed road course will host the Pirelli World Challenge season finale from August 31-September 2nd. It will be the first time PWC has been to Watkins Glen since 2010.

Below will feature a preview of each PWC entry for this weekend in GT, GTA and GTS with a look at what that driver did in 2017 and what to expect in 2018.

GT
Álvaro Parente: #9 K-PAX Racing Bentley Continental GT3
What did he do in 2017: 3rd in the PWC GT championship, second in the sprint championship and 7th in  SprintX. Four victories, all in sprint races, and eight total podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Parente will be a championship front runner. He has been on point in his first two seasons but 2018 sees a change as Parente will be in a Bentley instead of a McLaren. Bentley had a few rough years with Absolute Racing in PWC. K-PAX Racing has had success with multiple manufactures. I think Parente will be fine.

Michael Christensen: #24 Alegra Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R
What did he do in 2017: Won the 24 Hours of Daytona in the GTD class and finished second in class at Petit Le Mans. Three podium finishes in the FIA World Endurance Championship GTE-Pro class and finished 11th in the GT World Endurance Drivers' Championship.
What to expect in 2018: Christensen is a Porsche factory driver and will give Parente a run for his money. Last year, Magnus Racing struggled after it switched to PWC from IMSA. The good news for Alegra Motorsports is the field is not as deep as 2017.

Daniel Keilwitz: #26 Callaway Competition USA Callaway Corvette C7 GT3-R
What did he do in 2017: Finished second in the ADAC GT Masters championship despite missing three rounds. He won two races and finished on the podium five times in eight starts. Won the 2017 Blancpain Sprint Series Pro-Am Cup.
What to expect in 2018: This is the sleeper. Keilwitz has been solid for a few years now in ADAC GT Masters and the Callaway Corvette is a top notch car. He will be learning the racetracks but we have seen drivers come in and have success. I think he will win a few races in 2018.

Daniel Mancinelli: #31 TR3 Racing Ferrari 488 GT3
What did he do in 2017: 4th in the PWC GT championship, sprint championship and SprintX championship. Three victories, all in SprintX, and second total podiums, all in SprintX.
What to expect in 2018: He was the surprise of 2017 but I think he will find himself fighting just to match his 2017 championship results.

Toni Vilander: #61 R. Ferri Motorsport Ferrari 488 GT3
What did he do in 2017: Finished ninth in the IMSA GT Le Mans championship with five podium finishes from seven starts.
What to expect in 2018: Vilander is one of the best around and he knows these racetracks. R. Ferri Motorsport looks to bounce back after having its 2017 season cut short and I don't think the team will struggle. The Finn will win a few races and challenge for the title.

Scott Hargrove: #96 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R
What did he do in 2017: IMSA GT3 Cup Challenge Canada champion, his second title in that series. He won nine of 11 races with his worst finish being second.
What to expect in 2018: Hargrove was one of the top drivers in the Road to Indy system a few years ago and it is a shame single-seaters left him behind. He has had success in the single-make Porsche series but this is his first big adventure into a GT3 series and I think this will be a learning experience for him.

Spencer Pumpelly: #00 TRG Aston Martin V12 Vantage GT3
What did he do in 2017: 16th in the PWC GT championship. Pumpelly was a SprintX driver for Magnus Racing. He won one race and had three podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Pumpelly is a good driver and I think he will have his days but there will be other days he will struggle to keep up with the likes of Parente and Vilander. He should finish in the top five of the championship.

GTA
Rodrigo Baptista: #3 K-PAX Racing Bentley Continental GT3
What did he do in 2017: 4th in the PWC GTS championship with four victories and six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: The Brazilian looked really good in GTS last year but he had plenty of off days that cost him a shot at a championship. I think he will match what he did in GTS last year in GTA.

Parker Chase: #19 TruSpeed Autosport Audi R8 LMS
What did he do in 2017: 10th in the PWC GTS championship with four podium finishes from 10 starts.
What to expect in 2018: Chase had a promising 2016 season in GTS. He is still a teenager and in a GT3 car. I don't think he will be challenging for victories in GTA at the start of the season.

Yuki Harata: #55 Dream Racing Motorsport Lamborghini Huracán GT3
What did he do in 2017: PWC GT Cup Champion with four victories from five starts.
What to expect in 2018: GT Cup had two entries at most races. I am not sure Harata will be a threat for the GTA title.

Martin Fuentes: #07 Squadra Corse Garage Italia Ferrari 488 GT3
What did he do in 2017: Competed in the VIR SprintX round but an accident ended his season prematurely.
What to expect in 2018: This is the man to beat. Fuentes won the GTA title in comfortable fashion in 2016 and now the class is two kids and an amateur. I think Fuentes has got this in the bag.

GTS
Lawson Aschenbach: #1 Blackdog Racing Chevrolet Camaro GT4
What did he do in 2017: PWC GTS Champion with two victories and 12 podium finishes with only three finishes outside the top five in 18 starts.
What to expect in 2018: Aschenbach was good in 2017 but had difficulty breaking through for victories. I think he wins more races than he did last year but the championship will not come as easy to him.

Jason Bell: #2 M1GT Racing Audi R8 LMS GT4
What did he do in 2017: 14th in the PWC GTS championship with his best finish being sixth and three top ten finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Bell moves from a SIN R1 to an Audi. I think he does better than last year but doesn't win a race.

James Sofronas: #14 GMG Racing Audi R8 LMS GT4
What did he do in 2017: GTA champion with six victories and eight podium finishes in nine starts.
What to expect in 2018: Sofronas has had his success at the GT level and I think he will be a competitive driver in GTS. He will win a race or two and could be in the championship discussion come Watkins Glen.

Gabriele Piana: #21 Muehlner Motorsports American Porsche Cayman GT4 CS-MR
What did he do in 2017: Finished fourth in the GT4 European Series Northern Cup Pro-Am class with four victories in eight starts. Won overall at the Dubai 24 Hour in January.
What to expect in 2018: Piana has had a good start to the 2018 season. Other than Circuit of the Americas I believe these will all be new tracks to Piana. He could win but I think this will be a learning year and lose out to experienced opposition.

Ian James: #50 Team Panoz Racing Panoz Avezzano GT4
What did he do in 2017: 2nd in the PWC GTS championship with six victories and ten podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: James ended the inaugural season for the Panoz Avezzano GT4 on a high note. I think he is the favorite for the championship.

Nate Stacy: #52 Kohr Motorsports Ford Mustang GT4
What did he do in 2017: 5th in the PWC GTS championship with two podium finishes.
What to expect in 2018: Stacy's sophomore season was a dip in performance but the young driver is back in a Ford. I think he can win a race or two and challenge for a top five championship finish.

Jade Buford: #55 PF Racing Ford Mustang GT4
What did he do in 2017: 16th in the PWC GTS championship after making three starts. He swept the Mosport weekend and finished third in the first St. Petersburg race.
What to expect in 2018: Buford has yet to run a full season but if he does he could be a sleeper for the championship. It would be a stretch but he has been solid in the races he has competed in.

Harry Gottsacker: #69 Racers Edge Motorsports SIN R1 GT4
What did he do in 2017: 11th in the PWC GTS championship after eight starts. He finished third in both Mid-Ohio races.
What to expect in 2018: The SIN had some good runs in 2016 and 2017 but I am not sure it can compete with the influx of GT4s we have seen in recent seasons.

Shane Lewis: #72 Robinson Racing Mercedes-Benz GT4
What did he do in 2017: Finished third in the Trans-Am TA2 championship and won one race. Trans-Am TA2 West Coast champion with two victories.
What to expect in 2018: I think Lewis can be competitive but I am interested in seeing how the Mercedes-Benz does against the competition.

Gar Robinson: #74 Robinson Racing Mercedes-Benz GT4
What did he do in 2017: Trans-Am TA2 champion with five victories.
What to expect in 2018: Similar to Lewis, the Mercedes-Benz is the wild car but I think Lewis will do better than Robinson despite Robinson besting him in Trans-Am.

The first GT race of the weekend will take place at 3:50 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th with the first GTS race of the season immediately following at 5:05 p.m. ET. GTS will have race two of the weekend at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday March 11th with the second GT race scheduled for 3:15 p.m. ET.


Monday, March 5, 2018

Musings From the Weekend: What to Watch For in the 2018 IndyCar Season

Daniel Abt finally got his first career Formula E victory. Nick Heidfeld has made 224 single-seater starts since his most recent single-seater victory. Mexico City had a hell of a crowd. Makes you think IndyCar made the wrong decision in not getting that race on the schedule this year. The Supercars season opened up and one man is on his way to a perfect season. Supercross had its second Triple Crown event of the season as it has reached the midpoint of the 2018 season. If your name began with the letter "K," you likely won in NASCAR this weekend at Las Vegas. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

What To Watch For in the 2018 IndyCar Season
At this time of the year there is always a part of me that doesn't care the IndyCar season is starting. The wait has been so long and the offseason has made the daydreams seem better than any possible reality and I don't care. Part of me hates that the season is here. I didn't need it.

But there is a bigger part of me that is excited for IndyCar's return. While we hate the long offseason it sure makes the start of the season feel like a honeymoon. You are ready to go a million miles per hour, punch your hand through glass and do a back flip off the balcony because of the excitement of a new season. The wait has been long but it appears to be worth it. The long, freezing nights have ceased and the season returns with spring, the season of life, about to start. The dull world is about to become colorful and go a whole hell of a lot faster.

The season is long despite not as long as we would like. A lot is going to happen this season and sometimes we do not have time to prepare ourselves for what should be a special moment. These moments happen and catch us off guard and when we stop to give it to think about what it means another race is upon us and it is quickly forgotten.

My hope today is to preview some milestones, events and other potential occurrences for the 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series season and think about what it could mean. We start with one of the greatest teams in motorsports.

Team Penske is Three Victories Away From 200 IndyCar Victories
The team won ten races last year and in doing so ended 2017 with 197 IndyCar victories. It is not a matter of if Team Penske will hit 200; it is a matter of when.

It would not be surprising if it happened at the third race of the season at Long Beach but knowing Team Penske and the script writers it will happen on the final Sunday in May at the Indianapolis 500 and wouldn't it be something if Penske's 17th Indianapolis 500 victory was not only his team's 200th IndyCar victory but Hélio Castroneves' fourth Indianapolis 500 victory? After all, Castroneves was responsible for Penske's 100th IndyCar victory at Belle Isle in 2000 and that was the Brazilian's first career IndyCar victory.

We are bound to see a little magic this year in IndyCar. Is there a better storyline than that?

The amazing thing is Penske could amass 100 IndyCar victories in about 18 years after taking 32 years to get the first 100 victories. The Captain has only gotten stronger with time and no one is challenging him. The next closest team is on 107 victories but we will talk about that in a moment.

Scott Dixon is Nine Top Five Finish Away From Second All-Time
Scott Dixon is great but we might be under estimating his greatest. Not only is he two victories away from moving up to third all-time behind A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti but he could surpass Foyt for second-most top five finishes if he gets nine top five finishes from 17 races. Dixon sits on 141, tied with Al Unser and Hélio Castroneves, while Foyt is on 149. Mario Andretti has the all-time lead with a comfortable 193 top five finishes.

Not only is Dixon close to surpassing Foyt but he is four podium finishes away from becoming the fourth driver with 100 podium finishes in IndyCar history. Mario Andretti leads again with 144, Foyt has 119 and Michael Andretti sits on 100. Dixon is also third all-time in runner-up finishes on 38 and second all-time is not out of the question. Castroneves is second on 41 runner-up finish and once again Mario Andretti is the all-time leader with him having finished second on 56 occasions.

We have been so focused on the victories that we forgot about everything else. This is a big deal. The top five mark will be difficult to get this season but four podium finishes? Dixon might get that before the Indianapolis 500. The last time Dixon did not get at least four podium finishes in a season was in 2005 when he had one. He is going to hit the century mark and he deserves a lot of recognition for the accomplishment.

Dixon isn't underrated; he is under-appreciated. He is one of the all-time greats but we live in an era where being an all-time great isn't enough. Dixon came into IndyCar at the wrong time, when two series didn't care about promoting drivers but trying to sink the other and both lost out. I am glad Dixon has spent majority of his career in a unified IndyCar. We are now getting to realize the talent we have in our midst. The problem is I am not sure anyone outside the IndyCar bubble really cares.

Chip Ganassi Racing is Five Victories Away From Passing Newman/Haas Racing For Second All-Time
While the Pittsburgh-native has reached the 200-win plateau as a car owner through every form of motorsports, Chip Ganassi is in position to only trail Roger Penske in terms of IndyCar victories when 2018 is over.

Newman/Haas Racing won 107 races while Chip Ganassi Racing sits on 103 victories. Five does not seem like much but Ganassi has not won five IndyCar races in a season since 2013 and he has not had multiple drivers win a race in a season since 2014. The last time Ganassi had multiple drivers win more than once in a season was 2011 when Franchitti won four races and Dixon won twice. Dixon has not won five races in a season since 2009.

For Ganassi to surpass Newman/Haas Racing it will likely take Dixon and Ed Jones both winning multiple races in 2018. Dixon won once in 2017 but I bet he triples that in 2018. Jones is the unknown. He had a great start with Dale Coyne Racing as a rookie but how will he fare in his sophomore season and does he have two victories in him? That is a big ask of the Emirati driver.

This potential milestone will not be as much looking at Ganassi but looking back at Newman/Haas Racing. The team's final victory came at Belle Isle in 2007. The team has been second for quite some time. Unfortunately, the team shut its doors after the 2011 season. When you consider Team Penske enters its 52nd year of competition, Newman/Haas wasn't around long, 1983-2011 to be exact. In less than 30 years, the team won more than 100 races. Ganassi took over Pat Patrick's team in 1990. It is slightly behind the pace of Newman/Haas. Both incredible teams and the good news is it appears Ganassi isn't going anywhere.

The other good news for Ganassi is he does not have a lot of pressure behind him. Michael Andretti is the next closest active car owner and he has 57 victories. A.J. Foyt is behind Andretti on 44 victories.

Will Power is Four Pole Positions Away From Second All-Time
A.J. Foyt could be losing a lot of real estate in the record book this season. Not only could Scott Dixon knock him down a peg but Will Power could do the same. The Australian is tied for third all-time in pole positions on 50 with Hélio Castroneves. Foyt is second all-time on 53. Since becoming a full-time Penske driver in 2010, Power has averaged 5.25 pole positions a season. The one outlier is Power's 2016 season where he won only one pole position.

It seems like Power will be second before we know it but this is one category where I think Power could end up as the all-time leader before his career is over. Once again, Mario Andretti is the all-time leader on 67 pole positions. Seventeen pole positions do not seem like a lot for Power and he is 37 years old. With the trend being drivers racing into their 40s and well into their 40s, it would not be crazy for Power to race another five years and pick up four pole positions a season. He doesn't seem to be slowing down as he led IndyCar last year with six pole positions. It is going to be close.

Marco Andretti Could Break the Record for Most Starts Between Victories
The third generation driver's most recent IndyCar victory came 109 starts ago. If he does not win until Portland or Sonoma he will set a record, which I don't know if he wants or not, which is most starts between victories. Graham Rahal holds the record at 124 starts. Should Andretti be winless entering Portland, the record will be his for the taking regardless if he wins one of the final two races or beyond.

The good news for Andretti is he could avoid breaking the record or match it. There are six oval races prior to Portland and the gap between Honda and Chevrolet has been erased on the short ovals. The expectation Andretti gets off the snide at a road or street course race seems low but with the lower downforce aero kit it could bring Andretti back into the conversation. In the DW12-era, four of Andretti's seven podium finishes have come on road/street courses while eight of his 14 top five finishes have come on road/street courses, including his most recent top five finishes, a fourth at Toronto last season. Maybe Andretti provides the biggest surprise of all and not only wins a race but does it at a Long Beach or Road America or Mid-Ohio.

Will There be Another Oval Race Where None of the Top Three Starters Lead a Lap?
This sounds odd because it is odd. One thing I noticed last year when looking at the Pocono box score is pole-sitter Takuma Sato did not lead a lap. Sato fell to the back and was never a factor in the race. That is strange but there has been plenty of oval races where second-place gets a jump on the pole-sitter and dominates. Then I noticed that second-place starter Simon Pagenaud also did not lead a lap. Even stranger but for a larger oval it is conceivable third-place gets a run on the leaders and checks out. Then I noticed third-place started Charlie Kimball did not lead a lap and I wondered when was the last time the top three starters in an oval race did not lead a lap?

I finally got a chance to look it up. Based off some rough research, that Pocono races was the 149th oval race since 1947 where the pole-sitter did not lead a lap and it was the first since Iowa in 2013 when Will Power did not lead a lap. It was the first race where neither driver on the front row led a lap since Milwaukee 1990 when neither Rick Mears nor Danny Sullivan led a lap.

It was the first time none of the top three starters led a lap in an oval race since DuQuoin 1968 when Al Unser, Bill Puterbaugh and A.J. Foyt all did not lead a lap. Bill Vukovich, Jr. led the first six laps from fourth on the grid and Mario Andretti led the final 94 laps after starting sixth.

I doubt it happens again in 2018. For all we know we might have to wait until 49 years.

Indianapolis 500 Victory Sparking a Championship Run
The last seven seasons have seen Indianapolis 500 winner not go on to win the championship. This comes after a period where the Indianapolis 500 winner won the championship five of the previous six seasons. This is the longest streak of the "500" winner not winning the championship since the first nine seasons of the IRL (1996-2004). Before that the next longest streak of the "500" winner not winning the champions was from 1971-1978 and the only drought longer than this one (since 1947) was from 1947-1954.

It isn't so much the "500" winner going on to win the title but the "500" being a championship contender and I am not sure if it says more about the Indianapolis 500 in the DW12-era or IndyCar in the DW12-era. Of the six Indianapolis 500 winners in the DW12-era, only Juan Pablo Montoya has finished in the top five of the championship and twice has the Indianapolis 500 winner finished outside of the top ten with Tony Kanaan and Alexander Rossi each finishing 11th in the championship in 2013 and 2016 respectively. And remember, the Indianapolis 500 has been double points since 2013, making these championship results even more peculiar.

To give you an idea of how odd the last six years have been, from 1947 to 2011 the Indianapolis 500 winner finished outside the top ten in the championship seven times and those drivers were Jim Clark (Indianapolis was his only start), Bobby Unser (not sure why he wasn't awarded points for his win in 1981. It was probably political with USAC, either way it was his only start), Al Unser (he made five starts from 15 races in 1987), Buddy Lazier (started two of three IRL races in 1996), Juan Pablo Montoya (only start in the 2000 IRL season), Hélio Castroneves (started two of 13 IRL races in 2001) and Dan Wheldon (he started two of 17 races in the 2011 IndyCar season).

Outside of those winners, the Indianapolis 500 winners since 1947 to finish outside the top five of the championship and were regular drivers (started 70% of the races or more) are Gordon Johncock (1973, seventh), Arie Luyendyk (1990, eighth, and 1997, sixth) and Eddie Cheever (1998, ninth).

Montoya was in the catbird seat for the championship from day one of the 2015 season until the final day but his "500" win didn't spark a championship pushes like Hornish, Jr., and Franchitti in 2006 and 2007 respectively. I want to see if an Indianapolis 500 winner can use that victory as an arch for an entire season and bring newcomers on a ride from a first experience in May until the middle of September when summer is about to give us a kiss goodbye.

Can Someone Other Than Penske, Ganassi or Andretti Win the Championship?
Since 2003, only one team not named Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing, Andretti Green Racing/Andretti Autosport or Newman/Haas Racing has won an American open-wheel racing championship and that was Forsythe Racing with Paul Tracy in the 2003 CART season.

It has been four-team domination for the past 15 years in IndyCar. Not that it is out of the ordinary. The early years of the IRL gave us different champions with the likes of A.J. Foyt Racing, Team Menard, Panther Racing Hemelgarn Racing and Bradley Motorsports all picking up silverware but on the CART side of things Penske, Ganassi and Newman/Haas won all seven championships from 1996-2002.

It has been a while since a fresh face has taken the highest honor in American open-wheel racing but with the universal aero kit this could be the year someone new gets a moment in the sun.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has been one of the fastest teams in preseason testing and has not only one hopeful but two. Graham Rahal strung together three impressive seasons despite being held back with the Honda aero kit. Takuma Sato joins him off a career-year in 2017 and the 41-year-old appears to have reached a new level in his career. RLLR has a title, dating back to 1992 when team owner Bobby Rahal won with the then-Rahal/Hogan Racing but 26 years of waiting must feel like 26 lifetimes considering the team has had its ups and downs including a handful of years outside of IndyCar.

Besides the two RLLR drivers, Dale Coyne Racing and Sébastien Bourdais lost most of 2017 after the Frenchman's accident at Indianapolis. For the first three races, Bourdais and the perennial back-marker were on top and had everyone in IndyCar chasing them down. We will never know if a healthy Bourdais and DCR could have overcome the deficient Honda and made a championship push in 2017 but 2018 has reset the series and it is as good a time as ever for the Bourdais to add a fifth title and with the least likely of teams.

A.J. Foyt Racing's last title was 20 years ago with a fairly unknown Swede. Now the team has picked up arguably the most recognizable face in IndyCar in Tony Kanaan and beside him is a fairly unknown Brazilian in Matheus Leist. Testing has been promising for Super Tex's team. We have been waiting a long time for A.J. Foyt Racing to become a respectable team and with Kanaan it might shoot into the role of contender.

Outside of those three teams there is Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, which has had its moments but has yet to break into the top echelon of IndyCar teams. Ed Carpenter Racing was on the cusps of a championship with Josef Newgarden. Now the team has a new American driver in Spencer Pigot trying to get the team into the hunt. Carlin and Harding Racing are two new teams and a championship out of the boxes for either of these teams would rival the Vegas Golden Knights for newcomer of the year.

IndyCar is due for a set of new faces at the championship stage. Imagine the scene of a group of men and women who have typically gone under the radar basking in a California sunset under the mist of champagne and a downpour of confetti. Those may be the happiest faces we ever see in IndyCar.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Daniel Abt but did you know...

Kevin Harvick won the NASCAR Cup race from Las Vegas, his second consecutive victory. Kyle Larson won the Grand National Series race. Kyle Busch won the Truck race.

Shane van Gisbergen swept the Supercars races from Adelaide.

Jason Anderson won the Supercross race from Atlanta, his fourth victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar's season opener at the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.
All three Road to Indy series and Pirelli World Challenge will also be at St. Petersburg.
Supercross will be across the state of Florida at Daytona for Daytona Bike Week.
NASCAR will be at Phoenix.
World Rally Championship crosses the Atlantic for Rally Mexico.


Friday, March 2, 2018

More Thoughts On IndyCar's Television Rights

The IndyCar season will be here in a week when the first practice session for the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg is held. While the long offseason has a concrete end point, one thing that remains uncertain is when the next television deal for IndyCar will be announced. It is more suspenseful than it should be.

This year marks the tenth year of a combination of ABC holding the exclusive network television rights and Versus/NBC Sports Network holding the exclusive cable television rights. Somehow IndyCar has survived the deal many thought would doom the series. Don't get me wrong, it was not an easy decade and the television ratings did decline to depressingly low numbers, not to forget mentioning the Indianapolis 500 rating continues to nosedive each year despite the fact the typical race is doing marginally better but not at a level worth bragging about.

We talked about IndyCar's future television over a month ago but now it feels dire to find out how and where IndyCar's future will be broadcasted. It seems it is either ABC/ESPN or NBC taking on the series full-time. There will be no sharing. There doesn't appear to be a third-party ready to swoop in and stun us all the way Versus did ten years ago. It is a matter of picking a partner.

My gut bounces between sides.

I think ABC/ESPN is going to win because it has history with IndyCar having broadcasted every Indianapolis 500 since 1964. It has gone through the highs and the lows with IndyCar. It was there at the mountaintop and it didn't abandon it when it fell into the sewer during the CART-IRL war. IndyCar loves its some nostalgia and all ABC/ESPN has to do is mention how it has been a tradition for people to tune into ABC to watch the Indianapolis 500 and generations of fans have listened to Jim McKay, Paul Page, Bob Jenkins and Allen Bestwick call the race. The marriage has gone on this long, why end it now?

On top of that, ABC/ESPN has already announced its own standalone OTT platform and that is something IndyCar is looking for. The series wants a way to connect with people who are not subscribing to cable television packages and live in a streaming world of Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime. The good news for IndyCar is it would not have to worry about whether or not people would tune into the OTT coverage if it was on the ABC/ESPN platform because sports fans would be purchasing it while it remains unclear if users of the other three streaming platforms are interested in live sports or only binge television series in the matter of days and movies.

I think NBC is going to win because it has been a great partner to IndyCar especially after it took over and rebranded Versus. The broadcast is the better quality of the two current partners, the announcers are beloved and the fans prefer it over ABC. NBC has given IndyCar attention it has not gotten from ABC/ESPN as it is not uncommon for most qualifying session to be broadcasted when NBCSN is doing a race and some are shown live. Even practice sessions have been shown live on NBCSN.

NBCSN has room for IndyCar. IndyCar would not have to squeeze in between MAAC basketball and a PBA tournament on ESPN2. It wouldn't be bumped for one of the four-dozen opinion shows. If NBCSN has a Friday afternoon open and it is between a IndyCar practice and a fishing show, the practice wins out. If there is an hour between NASCAR sessions, IndyCar practice or qualifying has filled the gap. IndyCar has taken the ABC train as far as it can go. The Indianapolis 500 is at its lowest point. A new network and a fresh perspective in NBC could revive it and get it off the bottom.

I thought the new television deal would have been announced before the start of the season and to be fair there is still a week to kill. There are a few strategies I see when it comes to the timing of the inevitable announcement of the next IndyCar deal.

If ABC gets the deal, it could be announced at St. Petersburg and allow for Allen Bestwick to come on air and say at the start of the season that ABC will be the home of the Indianapolis 500 (and IndyCar but that is second fiddle to the race) until whenever the deal expires.

Or...

If NBC gets the deal it could be announced at Phoenix so NBC can announce it is taking over full-time in 2019 and will show the 103rd Indianapolis 500 in 2019 during its first broadcast of the 2018 season.

Or...

IndyCar makes everyone wait until May when the series has the most attention on it because the Indianapolis 500 will be right around the corner and the announcement will be made that either ABC is staying pat or NBC will bring in a new era.

Or...

IndyCar lets the ABC portion of the schedule play out and NBC is announced sometime during the summer that way the ABC-era is over for good and NBC can move into the open home without having to wait for the ex to remove its belongings.

I have a few more thoughts about IndyCar, television, OTTs and the media landscape in general.

Traditional television isn't going anywhere. People are cutting the cord but people are still watching. The Indianapolis 500 is going to be network television. Say what you want about Nielsen ratings but those are still the numbers that are matter and no one has come up with a better metric for advertisers. IndyCar (and really every entity for that matter) wants an OTT because it is a matter of making the series available to a segment of the population that it otherwise would not be otherwise. The question is if IndyCar does not sign with ABC/ESPN and its planned OTT package then what is its operation should it sign with NBC?

The success of IndyCar streaming practice sessions and qualifying sessions on YouTube, as well as Fernando Alonso's rookie test at Indianapolis, shows the series can do it well on its own but YouTube isn't opening up its wallet. While IndyCar wants a big check, perhaps its OTT future is taking it in house and providing people around the world with an additional option in streaming races through YouTube. The finite details of the package are a matter of debate. Would it mean putting all practice sessions, qualifying sessions and races behind a pay wall or would practice sessions and qualifying sessions remain free while the races would come with a subscription fee for the entire season? How do the Road to Indy series play into this?

Having all the IndyCar races available through subscription makes the most sense if IndyCar takes it in house but I think practice sessions, qualifying sessions and all Road to Indy action should remain free. It allows fans to have a taste and then decide whether or not they want to pony up the money for the races. I think it is important that there is something out there that people do not have to pay for. Putting everything behind a pay wall does not help draw in new fans and only serve those diehards fans wanting you to shut up and take their money. IndyCar doesn't need the money of the diehard fans. It needs an influx of cash from those currently not watching.

If you asked me where do I think IndyCar goes with its next television deal, my answer would be ABC/ESPN because I have been around long enough to see change is never change in IndyCar. As much as we all love NBCSN's coverage and as good as it has been to IndyCar, the ABC-IndyCar marriage appears to be one that will stand the test of time despite being a disastrous relationship for nearly two decades. I think ABC/ESPN's announcement of its own OTT package came at the right time and it is what will keep IndyCar from leaving.

I hope I am wrong.


Wednesday, February 28, 2018

2018 IndyCar Team Preview: Dale Coyne Racing

We have reached the final IndyCar team preview and it will look at the team that took a stunning victory in the 2017 season opener, Dale Coyne Racing. Last season saw the team reach its highest level and then had it all crash down. What could have been a historic season was lost and now the team heads to 2018 hoping to prove the success of last spring was not a fluke. The team will have to do it with a pair of rookies splitting a car beside the team's modern IndyCar legend.

2017 Dale Coyne Racing Review:
Wins: 1 (St. Petersburg)
Poles: 0
Best Starting Position: 5th (Texas, Vautier)
Final Championship Positions: 14th (Ed Jones), 21st (Sébastien Bourdais), 25th (Esteban Gutiérrez), 30th (Pippa Mann), 35th (James Davison), 36th (Tristan Vautier).

2018 Drivers:

Sébastien Bourdais - #18 SealMasters Honda
The phrase putting the band back together was used quite frequently prior to the start of the 2017 IndyCar season with Dale Coyne Racing. Bourdais returned to Dale Coyne Racing but not only did he return to an old team, he was reunited with engineer Craig Hampson and chief mechanic Todd Phillips from his championship winning days at Newman-Haas Racing and race engineer Olivier Boisson followed Bourdais to Coyne from the ashes of KV Racing.

Unfortunately, an off in qualifying put Bourdais 21st out of 21 cars on the grid for St. Petersburg. In the race, Bourdais was up nine positions by the end of lap seven and was 11th at the time of his first pit stop. Three laps later a caution was out and only one car ahead of Bourdais had made a pit stop. He was second at the time of the lap 30 restart and spent seven laps behind Simon Pagenaud before he took the lead on lap 37. Bourdais would lead 69 of the final 74 laps and win by over ten seconds on the track. For the first time in IndyCar history, Dale Coyne Racing led the championship.

Things improve in race two as he started 12th but he had to make a pit stop immediately under the first caution of the race on lap two, restarting in 20th position, last on the road. While other cars made pit stops, Bourdais clawed his way to fifth by the time of his second pit stop and only dropped to tenth, finding himself in a better position than when he started. Each stint he gain a few positions and the unfortunate engine failures to Andretti Autosport drivers put Bourdais in position for a podium. He would find himself in podium contention and come home in second.

Bourdais had another solid day at Barber, starting 12th and finishing eighth, retaining the championship lead. The fairy tale ended in turn one on lap one at Phoenix and the championship lead was gone. A sixth place start in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis did not last long as Bourdais lost an engine after three laps.

Everything looked good in Indianapolis 500 qualifying. Bourdais was the fastest man out there and for a split second it appear Dale Coyne Racing was going to be the team to beat in the Indianapolis 500. In the next split second, Bourdais lost the rear in turn two, overcorrected and slammed into the barrier, shattering his pelvis and crushing the feel good story like a grape.

Initially, his season was ruled as over but Bourdais fought his way back and was back in the seat for Gateway. He finished 10th on his return and had another good run going at Watkins Glen until he had nowhere to good when Josef Newgarden slid into the pit exit wall. The Frenchman closed out the season in ninth place at Sonoma.

Numbers to Remember:
2: Career victories at Portland. He is one behind Michael Andretti and Al Unser, Jr., for most at the track. Bourdais is the only active driver to win at Portland in IndyCar.

5: Most top five finishes in a season for Bourdais since he returned to IndyCar competition in 2011. That occurred in 2014.

10.4: Average number of top five finishes for Bourdais from 2003-07.

26.75: Points per start for Bourdais in 2017, ninth-best among drivers to make more than six starts last season.

Predictions/Goals:
I did not think Bourdais could have held the form of the first three races through the final 14 races and been a championship contender at Sonoma. He still put up impressive numbers and I think a top ten championship finish would not have been out of the question. It is Sébastien Bourdais, the man who finished ninth in a Lotus. He is going to challenge for a top ten championship finish. Bourdais wins races and he has been able to do it despite being in less than ideal situations in his second stint in IndyCar.

Dale Coyne Racing did well in the first portion of the DW12-era. Justin Wilson finished sixth in the championship in 2013 and I would not be surprised if Bourdais could match that championship result. Bourdais will need to pick up more podium finishes and more top five finishes to make that happen. His qualifying performances have not been close to what he did in Champ Car and his best average starting position in IndyCar since 2011 was 9.9 in 2014 and 2015. Ironically, after none of his first 33 victories came from outside the top ten his last three victories have come from 11th, 13th and 21st respectively. Better qualifying should lead to better race results.

Zachary Claman De Melo - #19 Paysafe Honda
The French-Canadian returned for a sophomore season of Indy Lights but moved from Juncos Racing to Carlin. His sophomore season started better than his rookie season, as De Melo finished eighth, seventh and fifth in the first three races of the season at St. Petersburg and Barber. Unfortunately, the first bad break of the season came in the second Barber race after contact with Patricio O'Ward forced him to retire after three laps.

The first race of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis weekend saw De Melo challenge Nico Jamin for the victory but sudden for his first career Indy Lights podium finish with De Melo finishing second. The next race would be an 11th place finish but he would pick up fastest lap. He was mid-pack in the Freedom 100 and finished 6th. He could only manage a tenth place finish in the first race from Road America after starting 14th, dead last on the grid. The second race from Elkhart Lake had De Melo start fourth and he would take the lead on lap five and cruise to his first career Indy Lights victory.

De Melo started second at Iowa but finished second. He followed it up with a pair of podium finishes at Toronto. He picked up another pair of top five finishes at Mid-Ohio and ended the season with two consecutive sixth-place finishes at Gateway and Watkins Glen and finished fifth in the championship, five points behind his Carlin teammate Matheus Leist.

The results earned De Melo a ride with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing for the Sonoma season finale and he started 21st out of 22nd but finished 17th, one lap down.

Numbers to Remember:
4: De Melo would be the fourth Canadian to race for Dale Coyne Racing joining Ross Bentley, Paul Tracy and Michael Valiante.

11: Best finish for a Canadian driver for Dale Coyne Racing. Bentley finished 11th at Surfers Paradise in 1992 and Valiante finished 11th at Portland in 2005, his only start at Dale Coyne Racing and his final IndyCar start.

20: Lead lap finishes for De Melo in his last 21 Indy Lights starts including 12 consecutive to end the 2017 season.

Predictions/Goals:
De Melo is a good driver but in two years of Indy Lights he never entered the weekend as the man to beat. He got solid results and kept all four wheels on the car, which is very appealing to Dale Coyne Racing, which suffered a rough 2017 season in terms of crash damage. De Melo's schedule consists of St. Petersburg, Long Beach, Barber, Belle Isle, Road America, Iowa, Toronto, Pocono and Gateway. He has done well at Barber, Road America and Toronto. Long Beach, Belle Isle and Pocono will be new to him. It is tough to gauge how he is on ovals. While he wasn't impressive in 2016 he did finish sixth in all three ovals in Indy Lights last year.

With the 2018 rookie class being splintered between full-timers, significant part-timers and drivers with a handful of racers, I think De Melo would be best comparing him to Jordan King, who will run 11 races while De Melo runs 10 races. It will be interesting to see how he compares to his former Carlin teammate Leist as both move up and De Melo is arguably with the better team.

Pietro Fittipaldi - #19 Paysafe Honda
The grandson of double World Drivers' Champion, double Indianapolis 500 winner and 1989 IndyCar champion Emerson Fittipaldi has been all over the world and won everywhere he has gone. The unlikely starting point for Fittipaldi was Hickory Motor Speedway in the NASCAR Whelen All American Series and he won that champion at 15 years old.

After two years in late models, Fittipaldi headed to Europe and switched to single-seater racing. He finished eighth and 15th in the Protyre Formula Renault Championship and BRDC Formula 4 Championship respectively and he won a Formula 4 race at Brands Hatch on the grand prix circuit. The following year he won the Protyre Formula Renault Championship where he won 10 of 15 races. He moved to European Formula Three in 2015 and finished 16th in the championship with his best finish being a pair of sixths at Algarve. That winter he raced the MRF Challenge Formula 2000 Championship and finished in the top five in all 14 races with four victories, three runner-up finishes and a pair of third being enough to take the championship.

In 2016, he moved to the Formula V8 3.5 Series but he finished tenth in the championship with his best finish being third in the final race of the season at Barcelona. He returned to the series in 2017 and opened the season with a sweep of the Silverstone weekend. Fittipaldi won six races and finished on the podium ten times in 18 races and he won ten pole positions on his way to take the Formula V8 3.5 championship.

Numbers to Remember:
5,593: Days between the last time a Fittipaldi started an IndyCar race (Christian Fittipaldi at Mexico City in 2002) and the 2018 season opener at St. Petersburg.

0: IndyCar victories for Florida-born drivers. Fittipaldi was born in Miami, Florida.

6: Racetracks on the 2018 IndyCar calendar where a Fittipaldi has won (Phoenix, Indianapolis, Road America, Toronto, Mid-Ohio and Portland)

Predictions/Goals:
This signing surprised most. I joked back when Fittipaldi won the Formula V8 3.5 title that he was apart of a championship weekend in Bahrain that included a Senna and a Lauda also taking titles with Bruno Senna winning in the FIA World Endurance Championship LMP2 class and Mattias Lauda winning in GTE-Am. It is interesting seeing him come to North America. The Formula V8 3.5 Series was a fraction of what it was when it was Formula Renault 3.5 and was turning out drivers Robert Kubica, Sebastian Vettel, Álvaro Parente, Filipe Albuquerque, Bertrand Baguette, Mikhail Aleshin, Daniel Ricciardo, Robert Wickens, Alexander Rossi, Jean-Éric Vergne, Robin Frijns, Jules Bianchi, Kevin Magnussen, Carlos Sainz, Jr., Stoffel Vandoorne and Pierre Gasly. Fittipaldi could have a slight advantage if the Dallara chassis used in Formula V8 3.5 translates to IndyCar and is something he is comfortable with.

Fittipaldi will run seven races, Phoenix, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis 500, Texas, Mid-Ohio, Portland and Sonoma. While Fittipaldi has oval experience it is a big leap to go from last running a late model at Hickory Motor Speedway to an IndyCar at Phoenix and Indianapolis in two of his first three IndyCar starts. I am more interested in seeing how De Melo and Fittipaldi compare on road courses. I think Fittipaldi might do slightly better coming from Europe. Another thing to note about Fittipaldi is he, like De Melo, does not have a tendency of tearing up equipment. In his two seasons in Formula V8 3.5, Fittipaldi had only four retirements in 36 starts.

The 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series season opener, the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg will take place on Sunday March 11th at 12:30 p.m. ET on ABC.