 |
| Another epoch begins in IndyCar |
Coverage:
Time: Coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday March 11th with green flag scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET.
TV Channel: ABC
Announcers: Allen Bestwick, Scott Goodyear and Eddie Cheever will be in the booth. Rick DeBruhl and Jon Beekhuis will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 11:20 a.m. ET (45-minute session)
Second Practice: 3:10 p.m. ET (45-minute session)
Saturday:
Third Practice: 11:10 a.m. ET (45-minute session)
Qualifying: 2:20 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Warm-Up: 8:45 a.m. ET (30-minute session)
Race: 12:40 p.m. ET (110 laps)
How Important is a Good Start to the Season?
Nobody wants to start a season on a bad note but how fatal could it to championship hopes? Does the first race necessarily predict how the season will play out?
The first race might not be the best barometer but it does signal that it is difficult to over come a poor start. Since the 1947 AAA National Championship season, 86 American open-wheel series championship have been awarded. Of those 86 champions, 26 won the first race of the season with the most recent champion to win the season opener being Will Power in 2014. Last year, Josef Newgarden finished eighth in the St. Petersburg season opener in what was the first race of his championship season; he was the 30th champion to start the season with a finish outside the top five.
Strangely, of the 30 champions to start the season with a finish outside the top five, 18 of them started the season with a finish outside the top ten with the most recent champion to overcome a finish outside the top ten being Scott Dixon, who finished 15th in the season opener in 2015. Five champions have started the season with a finish outside the top twenty with those five drivers being Greg Ray (22nd in 1999 season opener), Tom Sneva (22nd in 1978), Danny Sullivan (23rd in 1988), Bobby Rahal (24th in 1987) and Henry Banks (25th in 1950).
Winning early is important as 69 of 86 champions scored a victory within the first five races of a season but once again, Scott Dixon is the most recent driver to break the mold. Dixon did not win until the 11th race of the season in his 2013 championship season. He is one of three champions to take more than 10 races to get his first victory joining Al Unser, whose first victory came 14 races in during the 1985 season, and Gil de Ferran, who did not win until race number 17 in 2001. There have been three winless champions, Scott Sharp in the odd 1996 IRL season where he shared the title with Buzz Calkins, Tom Sneva in 1978 and Tony Bettenhausen in 1958.
If you can't get a win early, you better get a podium. Only once since 1947 has the champion taken more than five races to get a podium finish and that was Jimmy Bryan, who didn't get a top-three finish until the sixth race in 1956. It wasn't until the fifth race of the 2000 season for Gil de Ferran to get his first top five finish and no other champion has taken more races for a top five finish. Only one champion has failed to get a top ten finish in the first three races. That driver was Danny Sullivan in 1988 and his first top ten finish was in the fourth race of the season.
We can't crown a champion at St. Petersburg but we can start to get an idea who we can look to scratch out by the time we reach Barber Motorsports Park at the end of April.
Chevrolet vs. Honda: Round Three
We have had the original DW12 aero kit, the manufacture aero kits and now we move onto the universal aero kit. Chevrolet has dominated the previous two iterations of DW12 bodywork. Chevrolet is six-for-six when it comes to manufactures' championship since the American make returned to IndyCar in 2012. Chevrolet drivers have won five of six drivers' championship with the lone exception being Scott Dixon in 2013.
Honda has been thoroughly beaten during the two most recent IndyCar epochs but last season and this preseason may signal a turnaround. Last season, Honda won seven races with all five Honda teams getting on the scoreboard. The Japanese manufacture won four of five street course races while taking victories in the Indianapolis 500, Road America and Watkins Glen. Team Penske might have taken four of the top five in the championship but Honda drivers took the remaining six positions in the top ten and ten of the top fifteen.
Winter has been kind to Honda, most notable Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The team topped every session at the Phoenix preseason test with Takuma Sato fastest overall. Sato and Graham Rahal both topped the unofficial test session at Sebring last week with Rahal posting the fastest time of the day. At Phoenix, Honda took five of the top eight spots and six of the top ten with three teams represented in the top ten. At Sebring, Honda took the top three spots in the morning session on Wednesday February 28th. Honda had three of the top five in the afternoon that day.
Andretti Autosport had three cars in the top ten at the Phoenix test, tied with Team Penske for most cars in the top ten. The issue for Andretti Autosport is Marco Andretti was the top driver for the team, sixth overall. The good news for Andretti Autosport is Andretti and Alexander Rossi were both faster than Scott Dixon at the Phoenix test with the four-time champion eighth fastest.
Ryan Hunter-Reay rounded out the top ten in the Phoenix test with last year's St. Petersburg winner Sébastien Bourdais 11th-quickest and Bourdais' former teammate, Ed Jones 12th-fastest with Chip Ganassi Racing. Bourdais is attempting to become the third driver to successfully defend a St. Petersburg victory. Hélio Castroneves won the event in 2006 and 2007 while Juan Pablo Montoya won in 2015 and 2016. Bourdais' victory was Honda's first win at St. Petersburg in the DW12-era.
The Honda team bringing up the rear at the Phoenix test was Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. Robert Wickens was faster than his senior teammate James Hinchcliffe with Wickens 16th while Hinchcliffe was 22nd, second-slowest overall and the slowest Honda. The good news for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports is its partner-in-crime, Michael Shank Racing, had a respectable outing at Sebring. Jack Harvey was second quickest to Sato in the morning while in the afternoon he and Sato posted the same time, tied for fourth.
Along with Honda's manufactures' championship drought, it has yet to win more races in a season than Chevrolet during the DW12-era.
While Honda has looked strong, Chevrolet does not appear to be going anywhere. Will Power was second fastest at the Phoenix test with new A.J. Foyt Racing driver Tony Kanaan in third and defending champion Josef Newgarden in fourth. Newgarden was also the fastest driver at the Sebring test on February 27th. Simon Pagenaud was ninth at the Phoenix test. Meanwhile, Spencer Pigot was in the top five in both sessions on the Wednesday of the Sebring test.
Carlin is new ship in the Chevrolet armada but the team has yet to get in the same zip code as the other Chevrolet teams. Charlie Kimball and Max Chilton did not break the top ten in the Tuesday sessions at Sebring when 15 cars participated. In the Wednesday test, the best Carlin did was sixth out of nine cars. Harding Racing makes its street course debut with Gabby Chaves. Chaves was eighth in both Wednesday sessions at Sebring.
Who Can be the Surprise Rookie?
There is a lot of youth on the IndyCar grid with seven rookies entered for St. Petersburg, four of which will be making debuts this weekend.
We touched upon Wickens and Harvey above. Wickens makes his IndyCar debut while Harvey is set to make his fourth career start with his third different team. Wickens hasn't run many street courses with the only street course on the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters schedule being the famed Norisring. The good news for Wickens is he did quite well at the Norisring with two victories, four podium finishes and five top ten finishes in nine starts. The bad news for Wickens is in his final two years at the Norisring he retired from the first race and finished 11th in the second race each year. His most recent street course race in a single-seater was in the GP3 Series at Valencia in 2010. He finished second and 16th in those two races. He finished second at the Norisring in the Formula Three Euro Series in 2008 and his only A1GP victory came on the streets of Durban on February 24, 2008. In the 2007 Atlantics Championship season, Wickens had three podium finishes in five street course races.
Harvey never won on a street circuit in his two seasons of Indy Lights but he did have his fair share of good results. In eight street course starts, Harvey had six podium finishes, a finish of fourth and a finish of tenth. He finished second in both St. Petersburg races in 2015 and finished third on his Indy Lights debut at St. Petersburg in 2014. Harvey did sweep the Formula BMW Europe races at Valencia in 2010.
Zach Veach and Zachary Claman De Melo are not making debuts but they are both with new teams. After running a race with Ed Carpenter Racing and one with A.J. Foyt Racing in 2017, Veach moves to Andretti Autosport and Honda. Five of Veach's six seasons in the Road to Indy system were with Andretti Autosport and he picked up his first career Indy Lights victory with the team at St. Petersburg in 2014. Veach also had a strong race at St. Petersburg in the 2016 Indy Lights season opener before a mechanical problem. De Melo made his debut in the 2017 season finale with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and he stays within the Honda camp but joins Dale Coyne Racing. His Indy Lights street course record is not as exciting as Veach's, as his best finish in four St. Petersburg starts was seventh but he ended on a high-note with finishes of second and third at Toronto last year.
Matheus Leist is another driver with a poor Indy Lights record on street courses. The Brazilian finished 15th and 11th last year at St. Petersburg and 13th in the first race at Toronto. Leist did end on a high-note, just like De Melo, with a fifth-place finish in the second Toronto race.
There are two rookies from Europe. Jordan King takes a seat behind the #20 Fuzzy's Ultra Premium Vodka Chevrolet for Ed Carpenter Racing, as he is the new road and street course driver. King will be the second driver to make an IndyCar debut with Ed Carpenter Racing; Zach Veach was the first. King scored points in 13 of 22 Formula Two races last year, including in nine of 11 feature races. René Binder comes to IndyCar in the #32 Juncos Racing Chevrolet. Binder won his most recent race, the Formula V8 3.5 finale at Bahrain. While Binder won four races last year, it was the first time the Austrian had won since the 2012 German Formula Three season.
Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series hold their season openers this weekend at St. Petersburg and 51 drivers are entered across the three series.
Ten cars are entered in Indy Lights including both of last year's St. Petersburg winners. Aaron Telitz and Colton Herta are both back and both stay with Belardi Auto Racing and Andretti Steinbrenner Racing respectively. Herta finished second to Telitz in race one last year while Telitz finished fifth in race two. Santiago Urrutia returns for his third time at St. Petersburg in Indy Lights. Between six starts in Indy Lights and Pro Mazda at Urrutia has finished second twice, fourth twice and 13th twice.
Herta has three teammates this season with Dalton Kellett and Ryan Norman returning and Patricio O'Ward joins the team after running in IMSA's Prototype Challenge class in 2017. O'Ward made four starts last year in Indy Lights with Team Pelfrey. He finished third in race two last year at St. Petersburg. The Mexican driver won at St. Petersburg in Pro Mazda in 2016.
Juncos Racing has two new drivers with Victor Franzoni taking a promotion after his Pro Mazda championship and former Force India test driver Alfonso Celis, Jr. joins the team. Franzoni won his first start at St. Petersburg in U.S. F2000 in 2014. He has not won at the track since then and he finished second in both Pro Mazda races last year. With two Mexican drivers on the grid, it is likely either O'Ward or Celis, Jr., will become the first Mexican driver to win an Indy Lights races since Mario Domínguez won at Homestead on March 21, 1999. Team Pelfrey returns with two American drivers. Neil Alberico moves over from Carlin while Shelby Blackstock joins the team from Belardi Auto Racing.
The last three Indy Lights races from St. Petersburg have been won from pole position while five of six St. Petersburg races since the introduction of the IL-15 chassis have not had a lead change.
The first race of the Indy Lights season will take place at 1:05 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th. Race two will be at 10:45 a.m. ET on Sunday March 11th
The Pro Mazda grid has increased to 16 entries for what will be the first race for the Tatuus PM-18 chassis.
Reigning U.S. F2000 champion Oliver Askew moves up to Pro Mazda and with Cape Motorsports where his teammate will be Nikita Lastochkin. Also moving up from U.S. F2000 is vice-champion Rinus Veekay, who joins Juncos Racing along side Carlos Cunha, the best returning Pro Mazda driver from the 2017 season and Robert Megennis moves up to Pro Mazda as well with Juncos Racing.
After three years in U.S. F2000 Parker Thompson has moved to Pro Mazda with Exclusive Autosport in an all-Canadian line-up with Antonio Serravalle. After a successful part-time U.S. F2000 campaign David Malukas and BN Racing are now in Pro Mazda and Kris Wright will be in the team's second entry.
Sting Ray Robb moves to Team Pelfrey where his teammates will be Rafael Martins and Andrés Gutiérrez. RP Motorsport joins the series from Europe. The Italian team has competed in the Formula V8 3.5 Series, Euroformula Open Cup and Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0. Harrison Scott won the Euroformula Open Cup title last year with RP Motorsport. Ludovico Laurini also moves over with the team from Euroformula Open Cup to Pro Mazda.
Cape Motorsports swept last year's St. Petersburg weekend and the team swept in 2015 as well. Juncos Racing has won five Pro Mazda races at St. Petersburg while Team Pelfrey has four victories at St. Petersburg.
The Pro Mazda season opener takes place on Saturday March 10th at 12:10 p.m. ET with race two scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday March 11th.
The bottom tier of the Road to Indy system has the largest grid of the three series as 25 cars are entered for the U.S. F2000 season opener.
Last year, Cape Motorsports won the championship with Oliver Askew and this year Cape Motorsports has hired Askew's fellow 2016 Team USA Scholarship recipient Kyle Kirkwood, who won last year's Formula 4 United States Championship. Kirkwood is not the only Formula 4 championship on the grid. Reigning F4 British Championship Jamie Caroline comes over from the United Kingdom with BN Racing but he will be racing this weekend with no testing.
Pabst Racing has three returning drivers with one promising rookie entering the fold. Kaylen Frederick, Calvin Ming and Lucas Kohl finished fourth, fifth and seventh in the 2017 U.S. F2000 championship and all three are now teammates. Swedish driver Rasmus Lindh joins the team and he was quick in testing. Lindh is coming straight out of karting.
Another driver making the transition to car racing that was fast in testing was Team Pelfrey's Kyle Dupell. His teammates will be South African Julian Van der Watt and Brazilian Bruna Tomaselli.
A few other driver to keep an eye on are Road to Indy Scholarship winner Keith Donegan, who will be driving for ArmsUp Motorsports, Newman Wachs Racing drivers Darren Keane and David Osborne, and DEForce Racing drivers Zach Holden, Kory Enders and José Sierra.
Cape Motorsports has won five times in U.S. F2000 at St. Petersburg while Pabst Racing has four St. Petersburg victories after the team swept the weekend in 2014 and 2015. Team Pelfrey got its first U.S. F2000 victory at St. Petersburg last year with Robert Megennis.
Race one of the U.S. F2000 season will be at 10:15 a.m. ET on Saturday March 10th with race two scheduled for 5:25 p.m. ET on Sunday March 11th.
If you want a full preview of all three Road to Indy series, check out this extensive preview.
Pirelli World Challenge
It isn't just open-wheel cars getting the 2018 season underway this weekend. Pirelli World Challenge opens its season on the streets of St. Petersburg with both GT and GTS classes on track.
In GT, 12 cars are entered. Álvaro Parente won last year's season opener at St. Petersburg and he returns looking for his second title in three years but he will have to do it driving a Bentley after spending the first two seasons driving a McLaren for K-PAX Racing. Parente will also have a new teammate in the form of GTA driver Rodrigo Baptista, who moves up from GTS.
Daniel Mancinelli took a surprise pole position last year at St. Petersburg and he is back in the #31 Ferrari for TR3 Racing. He will have steep competition within the Ferrari family as Toni Vilander joins R. Ferri Motorsport and 2016 GTA champion Martin Fuentes returns.
Porsche factory driver Michael Christensen will drive for Alegra Motorsports and IMSA Porsche GT3 Cup Challenge Canada champion Scott Hargrove moves to PWC with Pfaff Motorsports. Daniel Morad returns in the #2 Mercedes for CRP Racing. Daniel Keilwitz joins the series with the introduction of the Callaway Corvertte. TRG returns to PWC with Spencer Pumpelly driving the #00 Aston Martin. Parker Chase moves up from GTS and he is in the only Audi on the GT grid as he will drive for TruSpeed Autosport. Last year's GT Cup champion Yuki Harata moves up to GTA in the #55 Dream Racing Motorsport Lamborghini.
The first GT race will be at 3:50 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th. Race two will be at 3:15 p.m. ET Sunday March 11th.
Lawson Aschenbach will defend his title in GTS and the Blackdog Racing Chevrolet Camaro driver will be looking for his fourth GTS title and fifth PWC title overall. Ian James ended the 2017 season on a high note and the Panoz driver will give Aschenbach tough competition all season. James will have GTSA competition Preston Calvert as his teammate.
Nate Stacy and Jade Buford will be two Ford Mustang GT4 drivers looking to break up the Camaro vs. Panoz battle. James Sofronas moves to GTS and will drive an Audi for GMG Racing. Flying Lizard Motorsports will field two Audis for Adam Merzon and Mike Hedlund, both GTSA drivers.
Gabriele Piana won the Dubai 24 Hour in January with Black Falcon and he will drive the #21 Porsche for Mühlner Motorsports America. Other drivers to keep an eye on are Harry Gottsacker in a SIN R1 GT4 for Racers Edge Motorsports and Robinson Racing Mercedes-Benz drivers Shane Lewis and Gar Robinson.
GTS will race at 5:05 p.m. ET on Saturday March 10th and at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday March 11th.
For a full Pirelli World Challenge preview, click here.
Fast Facts
This will be the third IndyCar race to take place on March 11th and the first since Cristiano da Matta won the 2001 CART season opener from Monterrey. The other IndyCar race to take place on March 11th was in 1973 and Gordon Johncock won that day at Phoenix.
Since St. Petersburg returned to the IndyCar schedule in 2005, Team Penske has never failed to win at St. Petersburg in successive seasons.
Team Penske has never won the season opener in a year ending with the number eight.
Last year's St. Petersburg race had the fastest average speed in event history. The race was completed with an average speed of 95.391 MPH.
The slowest St. Petersburg race was the time-shortened wet race in 2008 with an average speed of 74.251 MPH.
Last year, Sébastien Bourdais won from 21st on the grid. He was the first St. Petersburg winner to start outside the top ten. The previous worst starting position for a St. Petersburg winner was ninth (Dan Wheldon 2005 and Graham Rahal 2008)
Graham Rahal is the only American driver to win the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.
Will Power could tie Hélio Castroneves for most Grand Prix of St. Petersburg victories at three.
Seven different nationalities have won the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.
No driver has won at St. Petersburg in IndyCar and Indy Lights. Marco Andretti, Josef Newgarden, Zach Veach and Ed Jones have all won in Indy Lights at St. Petersburg.
The Grand Prix of St. Petersburg race winner has led the most laps in eight of 14 editions but the driver who led the most laps has only won two of six races in the DW12-era.
The average starting position for a St. Petersburg winner is 5.35 with a median of four.
Before last year's race, the winners of the previous four St. Petersburg races all won from fourth on the grid.
In the DW12-era, the St. Petersburg winner has never started on the front row.
The average number of lead changes in a St. Petersburg race is 6.142 with a median of 6.5.
The fewest number of lead changes in a St. Petersburg race is two with the most being ten.
The average number of cautions in a St. Petersburg race is 4.142 with a median of five. The average number of caution laps is 18.928 with a median of 18.
Every St. Petersburg race has had at least two caution periods.
Last year's race had eight caution laps, the fewest in the history of the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.
Possible Milestones:
Simon Pagenaud needs to lead 95 laps to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 50 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Graham Rahal wins the season opener with Takuma Sato making it two RLLR cars in the top five. Penske puts two cars in the top five and one will be Josef Newgarden. Spencer Pigot makes it to the second round of qualifying, as does Marco Andretti. Jack Harvey finishes ahead of both Schmidt Peterson Motorsports drivers. Gabby Chaves finishes in the top 15 but doesn't get shown once on the broadcast. Sébastien Bourdais qualifies better than 21st but leads fewer laps than last year. There will not be a caution during a pit cycle that shuffles up the field. Sleeper: Jack Harvey.
