1. After missing out on the final round of qualifying yesterday for the Grand Prix of Arlington, Kyle Kirkwood looked poised to move forward, but with how difficult competition can be in IndyCar, sacrificing four or five spots on the grid can be too much to overcome for victory. He was always going to head forward, and with Álex Palou starting second, Palou was going to be the final boss Kirkwood would have to beat. In Kirkwood's case, seventh was not too much.
After the final pit cycle, Palou led Kirkwood and Kirkwood had just come off his third slow pit stop of the race. However, despite the woes with tire changers, Kirkwood had the fastest car today, and with 21 laps remaining on the final stint, there was plenty of time for Kirkwood to close the two-second gap to Palou. It happened in no time, and it looked inevitable Kirkwood would get the top spot. He took the lead with plenty of laps to spare with a bold move to the inside of turn 14, reminiscent of what Andretti Global's Indy Lights driver Max Taylor pulled off to win the junior series race earlier in the day. Like Taylor, Kirkwood took the lead and then drove into the distance.
A late restart added a wrinkle, but Kirkwood's victory was never in doubt, thanks to Nolan Siegel running into the back of Romain Grosjean, but even before then, it was unlikely Palou or anyone else was going to surpass Kirkwood's pace in a 2.73-mile sprint to the finish.
This is the type of start to the season Kirkwood needed, especially after how 2025 ended with no top five finishes in the second half of the season. Three consecutive top five finishes has Kirkwood in the championship lead.
There are still plenty of areas where this team must improve. The qualifying pace was there in Arlington after two shoddy weekends, but the team botched the strategy and it was all due to poor communication and Kirkwood not knowing he was supposed to run a third lap on his final run. It wasn't the end of the world, but starting seventh versus potentially starting on pole position is a big setback. We have seen fast cars have to start in the middle of the top ten and then have to settle for a podium finish. It is also a point lost. Pole position pays a point, and we have seen championships decided by less.
Then there was the pit stop problem. I cannot remember the last time a team had three sloppy pit stops under green flag conditions on a street course and won it. The team did Kirkwood no favors today, and Andretti Global has a history of this (see a handful of races Colton Herta lost due to poor pit stops). The team can celebrate but the debrief tomorrow will likely highlight where this race was nearly lost. It was a good day, but far from great.
2. Álex Palou was second-best today. So what? Palou was second-best to Kirkwood last year in the third race of the season. Who won the championship?
We know Palou will be fine. The pressure will be on Kirkwood. Palou is going to probably finish in the top five in ten more races this year. Can Kirkwood keep up? This year, Kirkwood leaves the third race with a 24-point championship lead on the rest of the field. Is that going to be enough to hold off Palou? Probably not.
Palou ran well today. He looked like he was toying with Marcus Ericsson on the first stint. It felt like Palou was just waiting to take the lead during the pit cycle. That is what happened. Palou was stuck behind Will Power during second-third of the race as Power ran a two-stop strategy and dragged out the alternate tires as long as he could. It worked. While Palou did take the lead as Power lost time with a slow pit stop, Palou being stuck behind Power allowed Kirkwood to close in and it allowed Kirkwood to win the race as the deficit was not as great as it could have been.
What Palou needed was to take the lead from Power on the track and run about five or six laps in the lead to open a gap that would have been too much for Kirkwood to overcome. It wasn't anything Palou did wrong. Power deserves praise for how he drove on the alternate tire. It sounded like Palou ran with extra downforce today, and on the long straightaways that was the difference and allowed Kirkwood to come out on top.
Oh well. Palou is likely going to win in two weeks at Barber Motorsports Park. How is Kirkwood going to do?
3. Will Power was the only driver to pull off the two-stop strategy and running a 22-lap stint and a 24-lap stint on the alternate tire allowed him to finish third. It was a bold strategy for a car starting fourth, and after the first stint, it felt dicey that it would work. Stretching one stint is manageable, but there was a reason no other team attempted to stretch two stints. To be honest, no one stratevch these tires like Power did. Power had the setup that allowed it and he didn't lose significant time. I was surprised he held onto the lead when Palou was in his wake.
Power had his own slow stop. Without it, Power possibly comes out ahead of Palou and Kirkwood. I doubt that because both those drivers ran three laps longer. Power exited the pit lane behind Patricio O'Ward, which cost him time. Then he ran wide in a corner and that allowed David Malukas through when Malukas still had to make his final pit stop. Power still ran well today and he got a good result when he had one get away from him last week. Third is a great day for this group.
4. Even though he started on pole position, there was no expectation that Marcus Ericsson was going to win this race. I didn't even think Ericsson would be in contention for the podium. He really wasn't, but he remained in the top five. He had good pace in the opening stint, but he clearly did not have a race-winning car. He lost spots on the first pit stop, as was the case for every Andretti driver today, but Ericsson did not slip further than that.
After last season, Ericsson just needs good days. Being the third-best Andretti driver in a race doesn't sound great, but when it is third-out-of-three and you finish fourth, that is nearly a perfect day for the team, especially when the team was woeful across the board on the pit lane. The three drivers bailed out the organization today. It isn't often that every driver bailed out a performance of every pit crew. It is usually the other way around.
5. Patricio O'Ward had another quiet day lead to a fifth-place finish. O'Ward was in the top five the entire race, but he was never a factor. He was never pushing Palou or the Andretti drivers. Fifth is right for him today. It is a third consecutive top five finish to start the season. These are good results. These are the results a driver needs if he wants to defeat Palou for the championship.
We know O'Ward can win races on a variety of disciplines, and he can be consistent throughout the season. He feels like a bigger threat to Palou than Kirkwood at this moment. This is a good start and we know O'Ward will find his own as we get on ovals and run some more familiar tracks.
6. David Malukas was moved up to sixth after Felix Rosenqvist was penalized for jumping the only restart, which we will cover in a moment, but Malukas had spent much of that final stint in sixth. He was in the top ten all day. He was the top Penske finisher in his third start with the team. It is good. He still doesn't have a top five finish on a road or street course and didn't look to be a threat for one today, but he got a sixth-place finish when he probably should have finished sixth. It is better than being seventh.
7. Moving up to seventh was Christian Lundgaard after the penalty for Rosenqvist. Lundgaard overcame a spin at the start when he was hit from behind. He earned this result and he looked strong despite the setback. He was still starting 18th today. Even without the contact, this is likely as good as it would have been. It is still a good recovery after a bad qualifying result.
8. Scott Dixon did the first four laps on the alternate tire and then did 11 laps on the alternate tire and satisfied the two-stint alternate tire requirement before the top three finishers even made their first pit stops. Dixon was on a four-stopper and he turned it into an eighth-place finish. He even had a set of new alternate tires for the final 11 laps.
I think there is some surprise more teams didn't try this strategy. A few tried it, but I think the alternate tire did better than expected, and instead of teams being desperate to get off them in less than ten laps, teams could go 15 laps, or in Power's case, a full fuel stint. Dixon had to employ this strategy because he started 20th. Qualifying results are what this team must work on.
9. Alexander Rossi started tenth and he finished ninth. Rossi didn't do anything notable in this race. If anything, he caught a break that his Ed Carpenter Racing teammate Christian Rasmussen broke down four laps to the finish and there was an attempted restart, which immediately caused an accident and led to Felix Rosenqvist receiving a 14-spot penalty. Rossi was gifted a position, as was everyone that finished seventh to 20th.
10. One Meyer Shank Racing driver's misfortune is another Meyer Shank Racing driver's reward, as Rosenqvist's penalty lifted Marcus Armstrong to tenth though Armstrong was probably one of the ten best drivers today. He might have been even better than that. Armstrong had to stop immediate at the start of the race due to a tire puncture. It set him back, but he was on a charge for this entire race. He was basically forced to the Scott Dixon strategy, except Armstrong had to end on the primary tire. He was pushing for tenth before the cautions at the end of the race. Without those, I think Armstrong was going to finish tenth. Even if he ended 11th, that would have been a fine result considering how his race started.
11. An argument can be made that Kirkwood, Armstrong or Scott McLaughlin had the best drive today. McLaughlin started last and he was a force in the first stint. He ran two quick stints on the alternate tire in the middle of the race. He was on the verge of the top ten at that point, and then his race stalled out. Once Armstrong was on fresher tires, McLaughlin had to play defense. Eleventh is a good day for McLaughlin. He might have had the best Penske car.
12. Let's breeze through the order: Caio Collet was 12th, the top rookie. Collet didn't do anything flashy, but he was hanging with Rossi, Armstrong and McLaughlin. That is a good race for Collet.
Louis Foster was 13th after starting 13th. Foster ran the final three stints on the alternate tire. That isn't a bad strategy because all three of those were new sets but what must Foster do to get a top ten finish? Twenty starts and still no top ten finishes in his IndyCar career. That isn't good.
Rinus VeeKay was 14th. That is fine. There will be plenty of these races where VeeKay is 14th or 15th and that is the best Juncos Hollinger Racing was going to do. He did seven laps on his opening stint on the alternate tire. Then he did 20 laps on the alternate tire on the next stint. The team was committed to the strategy but adjusted when it saw Power running longer. The bed was made though.
13. Josef Newgarden probably should have been in the top ten, but exiting pit lane Newgarden had contact with David Malukas in turn three and it cost him a bunch of spots. It was innocuous, but it spun Newgarden sideways and it took him a while to get pointed forward. It felt like it was only going to cost him five or six spots and he would just outside the top ten. Instead, he was barely inside the top twenty. I feel like this screwed up the team's strategy because he went onto a used set of primary tire after that and then finished on a new alternate set. It got him a few spots, but it did not lead to a quick recovery.
14. Dennis Hauger was 16th. He did nothing special, but it was good he completed laps.
Santino Ferrucci was a little fortunate to make the second round of qualifying yesterday. Ferrucci slid backward during the race. His car wasn't that great and he finished 17th.
Graham Rahal had a rough weekend on a street course. That isn't new. The pace was not there. He started 24th and finished 18th. It could have been worse.
Kyffin Simpson hit his own tire on his first pit stop, and it ricochetted into Scott Dixon's crew as Dixon made a pit stop. It didn't really slow Dixon's crew down, but it was a hazard Simpson caused. It led to a penalty, and he never overcame that. He ended up finishing 19th and was a non-factor all race.
15. And we make it to Felix Rosenqvist! Rosenqvist was in for a solid top ten finish, and that is where he spent the entire race. However, in IndyCar's attempt for a restart with one lap to go, Rosenqvist saw an opportunity to get a spot. Unfortunately, Rosenqvist passed David Malukas before the restart line after the exit of turn 14. About five seconds later, Nolan Siegel plowed into the back of Romain Grosjean, and last ditch sprint was over in a blink.
Rosenqvist passed Malukas before the restart line. Absolutely. It should not have been a 14-spot penalty and relegated him from what should have been seventh to 20th. Redress the positions. Move Malukas back to sixth and place Rosenqvist in seventh. If Rosenqvist had made this move and put Malukas into the tires and cost Malukas more positions beyond one, then yes, send Rosenqvist to the back of the order. That didn't happen.
IndyCar rushed to have a restart. Kirkwood was not behind the pace car when he started two laps to go. Cars were still on the long straightaway even when Kirkwood reached the pace car. Anyone watching knew there was going to be an accident in an attempt to run one more lap when the race result was already decided. There was too much bite in this penalty. We have seen far worse on-track contact not lead to such a penalty. Flip the spots but penalizing Rosenqvist 14 spots is like giving a prison sentence for jaywalking while vehicular homicide gets overlooked.
16. As for the lapped cars. Sting Ray Robb was 21st and did nothing. Mick Schumacher wasn't have a great race, and when he spun after a pit stop after a slight touch from Josef Newgarden, nearly a mirror image to what happened to Newgarden on the previous pit cycle, it was a gut-punch at the end of a tough day. These have been three challenging circuits for Schumacher to start his IndyCar career. He should feel better at Barber.
It appears Nolan Siegel plowed into the back of Romain Grosjean. Neither driver had a great race prior to that. Siegel just rubbed salt in both their wounds. Grosjean is likely not pleased. Siegel is another race closer to his dismal.
Does Siegel make it to the Indianapolis 500? Think about it! Would Arrow McLaren be better off with someone else in that car? McLaren has Patricio O'Ward, Christian Lundgaard was respectable last year, and it added Ryan Hunter-Reay. It has three contenders. It very well could find a fourth. There is no way you can believe in Siegel at this point.
17. Christian Rasmussen was not having a great day either prior to his car breaking down with four laps remaining. Throw in his Phoenix result, and the first three races look worse than they actually have been for Rasmussen.
Could we have just ignored his parked car with three to go? Rasmussen was stopped, but turns one through three were pretty slow. He wasn't in a position where he could easily be hit. If he was hit, it would have been another car spinning at 60 mph. He was right at pit exit.
This is why IndyCar should have virtual safety car. If they could attempt to make a restart with one lap to go in this scenario, it could have virtual safety car, slow the field down and just pushed Rasmussen aside. It was basically what IndyCar did except it packed up the field and gave Siegel an easier target to hit.
There could even be a modified virtual safety car. IndyCar could slow the section of the course where the car is stopped, in this case it could have been from the exit of turn 14 through turn three and the rest of the course could have been open for racing. That is essentially what Code 60 is in a handful of sports car championships.
We have been talking about virtual safety car for over a decade, and IndyCar has made zero effort to adopt it even if it would help the series and allow for more green flag racing and less of a hassle with fully slowing down the field. It isn't happening. Though IndyCar did just attempted single-car runs for the final round of qualifying, so maybe it is possible. We will see it in 2035.
18. It was a good race and a good weekend for Arlington. Where were all these people for the final five years of the Texas Motor Speedway event? Again, Texas Motor Speedway didn't go away because of the racing... it partially went away because of the racing (Do you remember how bad the high-line was those last few years?) It mostly went away because no one was there. Did no one show up because it was an oval? Because of the start time? Because of the lack of promotion? Some combination?
Either way, it is another case of IndyCar returning to a market and immediately seeing a massive crowd in a new location. We saw it a decade ago when Road America returned. All of a sudden 50,000 people were there on race day when Milwaukee struggled to get 15,000. All that changed was where the race was held and who was promoting it.
A great effort was put into Arlington. The race was good, and a crowd showed up. That is all you need. No one was complaining about cost, yet. Let's give it another year. Street courses do not last long. The tide can turn quickly. However, it was a strong start, and IndyCar should be racing in the state of Texas. This was the best option.
19. And now we get an off-week.
This was a fun start to the start. We saw the best driver in IndyCar beat down the field when it didn't look like it was going to happen, we saw a thrilling oval race that went to the closing laps, and we saw a high-speed street race where the winner worked his way forward from the middle of the top ten in a race that was practically caution-free until the very end.
That is a pretty solid start to the season. Take a breather before heading to Barber.