Monday, December 20, 2021

2021 For the Love of Indy Awards

We have made it to the end of another year, and this one felt a little more normal. Though we are still in the middle of a global pandemic and cannot quite escape it, the motorsports world found a way to put on countless unforgettable events. Some tracks and races returned after a year away. Others took place with at least partially full grandstands. Most championships were able to run a full slate of races. At least there were fewer cancellations, postponements, and amendments than the year before. 

Since we are looking on the bright side, let's get onto the award and recognize the best of year. There were historic seasons across the world, races that left us speechless and moments we are talking about months later.

Racer of the Year
Description: Given to the best racer over the course of 2021.
And the Nominees are:
Alessandro Pier Guidi
Shane van Gisbergen
Kyle Larson
Dominique Aegerter
Lewis Hamilton

And the winner is... Kyle Larson
Larson completed one of the most historic seasons in American motorsports history in 2021. 

It started in January with Larson winning the Chili Bowl for the second consecutive year. In February, Larson returned to NASCAR Cup Series competition after being suspended for majority of the 2020 for uttering a racial slur during an iRacing event. Larson signed with Hendrick Motorsports for the 2021 season. He was tenth in the Daytona 500, and he picked up his first victory of the season in March at Las Vegas, the fourth race of the season. 

Larson was a regular top five finisher through the first half of the season. He had three consecutive runner-up finishes in May, which led off Larson winning three consecutive races, starting with the Coca-Cola 600 before winning at Sonoma and the inaugural Nashville Superspeedway race. In the middle of that stretch, Larson won the All-Star Race for the second time in his career. 

He continued his form through the rest of the regular season, but Cup was not the only place he succeeded. Larson kept up his dirt competition and won the King's Royal at Eldora and he won the Knoxville Nationals. Overall, Larson won 29 of his 87 dirt starts. 

In the Cup Series, Larson won at Watkins Glen, and he won the regular season championship. In the playoffs, he won at Bristol, overcame an alternator issue at Charlotte to win that race when for a moment it looked like he would not advance from round two, and followed up his Charlotte victory with two more at Texas and Kansas, becoming the first driver to have two separate three-race winning streaks in a single season since Dale Earnhardt did it in 1987. 

Larson went on to win the season finale at Phoenix, his tenth victory of the season, and it earned him his first NASCAR Cup Series championship. It was the first time a driver won ten races in a season since Jimmie Johnson in 2007. Larson's 2,581 laps led were the most in a season since Jeff Gordon's 2,610 laps led in 1995, and his 28.05% laps led was the highest percentage in the modern era since Rusty Wallace led 28.588% of the laps in 1993. It was just the 15th time in NASCAR's modern era a driver led over 25% of the laps run in a season.

On the other nominees:
Pier Guidi has long been a staple in sports car racing, but 2021 was a special year for him. He won his second World Endurance GT Drivers' championship with three WEC victories, including at the 24 Hours of Le Mans, alongside AF Corse co-driver James Calado. He also won the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup championship with Iron Lynx and co-drivers Côme Ledogar and Nicklas Nielsen, with a dominant driver in the 24 Hours of Spa being a keystone result in that championship season. 

Not many drivers came close to touching van Gisbergen in 2021. He opened the season with six consecutive victories, four of which with a fractured collarbone after suffering a cycling accident. He also won in GT World Challenge Australia with his injuries. He won 14 Supercars races this season and clinched his second championship a round early, but he didn't just succeed in tin tops. Van Gisbergern won the New Zealand Grand Prix in the Toyota Racing Series to start the 2021 season. 

Aegerter might not be the biggest name in motorcycle racing, but not many riders have success in multiple series on two different types of bikes. The Swiss rider dominated the World Supersport season, winning ten of 23 races, two of which he skipped. In the 21 races he started, he never finished worse than fifth and was on the podium 16 times. Why did he skip two races? He was also in contention for the MotoE championship. He fell short in that championship and an ambition pass attempt on Jordi Torres cost Aegerter the title while Torres claimed the top prize, but Aegerter had four podium finishes from seven races and was still second in the championship. 

It might not have been a championship season, but Hamilton's 2021 results were incredible against the competition of Max Verstappen and Red Bull. In multiple races, Hamilton overcame the odds to score victories and many times did it without the aid of a teammate while Red Bull at times had four cars in the fight. Hamilton fell eight points short of the championship, but he overcame a 19-point deficit after the Mexican Grand Prix to enter the finale level on points with Verstappen, the first time the top two in the championship were tied entering the final race since 1974. After the controversial end of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Hamilton handled the defeat with humility despite being the aggrieved party. He ended the season with eight victories and 17 podium finishes. 

Past Winners
2012: Kyle Larson
2013: Marc Márquez
2014: Marc Márquez
2015: Nick Tandy
2016: Shane van Gisbergen
2017: Brendon Hartley
2018: Scott Dixon
2019: Marc Márquez
2020: Lewis Hamilton
 
Race of the Year
Description: Best Race of 2021.
And the Nominees are:
Monaco ePrix
24 Hours of Daytona
Austrian motorcycle Grand Prix
Food City 300
Brazilian Grand Prix

And the winner is... Monaco ePrix
Many believe there is no possible way the Monaco grand prix circuit can be viewed as a great circuit. From the tight nature and short straightaway, it is believed it is no longer conducive to modern motorsports machinery. It only took Formula E's first time using the full circuit to prove it still has it. 

From the time the lights went out, Formula E put on a spectacular race. Passes took place all over the 2.062-mile circuit. António Félix da Costa and Robin Frijns traded the lead throughout the race. Mitch Evans jumped up into the mix. Passes were happening all over. Evans took the lead heading up hill ahead of da Costa at Massenet. A late caution bunched the field for the final five laps, and the top three remained in lockstep for the final lap. Entering the chicane for the final time, da Costa made his move on the outside of Evans. The Portuguese driver locked up but slid in front of Evans and took the lead. 

Da Costa pulled away and won the race. Frijns nicked second at the line from Evans by 0.024 seconds. Just over 4/10ths of a second covered second to fifth. The top six finishers all started in the top six and finished where they started, but there were six lead changes. Sam Bird went from 16th to seventh. Lucas di Grassi moved up to tenth from 17th. 

It was a fitting finish for a race that never had a dull moment. 

On the other nominees:
The IMSA season could not have started with a better race, and it set the tone for the season. The 24 Hours of Daytona went to the wire in nearly every class. The top five overall finishers were on the lead lap. It was a battle between the #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura and the #01 Chip Ganassi Racing Cadillac before a late tire puncture forced the #01 Cadillac to make an extra start. Wayne Taylor Racing scored its third consecutive Daytona victory and this was in its first race with Acura. In LMP2, the top two finishers were on the same lap, as was the case in GT Le Mans and GT Daytona had the top five finishers in class on the lead lap. IMSA could have had four or five nominees for best race, but Daytona stood out for a race that did not let up over 24 hours. 

The skies scream of impending rain as the bikes set on the grid for MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix. Everyone was preparing for a flag-to-flag race with a bike change mid-race. Teams made decisions based on the likelihood of a change in conditions. The leaders sprinted away just waiting for the rain, but it wasn't coming. It remained dry. Half the race was completed and still no rain when many thought it would come in the opening laps. A spritz kept everyone on edge, but it wasn't breaking through. Then it got heavier. And heavier. And finally, the leaders dove into the pit lane. Marc Márquez, Francesco Bagnaia, Jorge Martín, Joan Mir, Aleix Espargaro, Fabio Quartararo switched bikes, but Brad Binder stayed out with three laps to go. The rain started coming down harder and harder. Binder was on a razor's edge for the final laps but held on for victory, 15 seconds clear of Bagnaia on the road. 

NASCAR's second division does not always get recognized, especially at Bristol, but the September night race was one of the best of the season. Daniel Hemric, Sam Mayer, Justin Allgaier and Austin Cindric each shared the lead for a significant chunk of the race with traffic being difficult to navigate and keeping the field close together. A few late cautions set up a green-white-checkered finish. Cindric led and A.J. Allmendinger had risen to the front as other competitors fell back. Allmendinger made a great restart and found himself battling Cindric to the finish line. The two drivers banged into each other, both cars sliding across the finish line with Allmendinger ahead by 0.082 seconds. It was the only lap Allmendinger led.

The Brazilian Grand Prix had already had plenty of storylines prior to the lights extinguishing at the start of the race. Lewis Hamilton had his qualifying time disallowed after his Drag Reduction System was found to have a greater gap than allowed. Max Verstappen had touched Hamilton's Mercedes in parc fermé and was handed a fine. Hamilton had also taken on a five-grid spot penalty for a change in his internal combustion engine. Starting 20th in the sprint qualifying race, Hamilton finished fifth and was relegated to tenth for the grand prix. On an aggressive strategy, Hamilton quickly was up to second and pressuring Verstappen for the lead. Hamilton had the optimal tires for the closing stages and despite being driven off course in one battle for the lead, Hamilton came back and passed Verstappen with 13 laps to go. Hamilton took victory from tenth on the grid and the championship lead was down to 14 points. 

Past Winners
2012: Indianapolis 500
2013: British motorcycle Grand Prix
2014: Bathurst 1000
2015: Australian motorcycle Grand Prix
2016: Spanish Grand Prix
2017: All the races at the World Superbike/World Supersport weekend at Phillip Island
2018: Petit Le Mans
2019: Honda 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
2020: Turkish Grand Prix

Achievement of the Year
Description: Best success by a driver, team, manufacture, etc.
And the Nominees are:
Lewis Hamilton reaches the century mark in victories
Valentino Rossi's grand prix career
Superstars Racing Experience for completing an entire season
Max Verstappen setting single-season Formula One record for podium finishes
Team WRT's championship success across multiple series and disciplines

And the winner is... Team WRT's championship success across multiple series and disciplines
Some teams do not get the recognition they deserve. Team WRT has look been a successful program in GT3 competition, but its 2021 season went beyond its comfort zone. 

Team WRT continued to have GT3 success. In the GT World Challenge Europe season, the team won the Sprint Cup championship with Dries Vanthoor and Charles Weerts. The Belgian pairing won four of ten races and stood on the podium seven times. In the Endurance Cup championship, Team WRT might not have won the drivers' championship, but it did win its fifth Endurance Cup teams' championship.

But the most impressive part of Team WRT's season was not in GT3 competition. In 2021, the organization branched out to full-time LMP2 competition with entries in each the European Le Mans Series and the FIA World Endurance Championship.

It opened the ELMS season with two consecutive victories for the #41 Oreca-Gibson of Louis Delétraz, Robert Kubica and Ye Yifei. At Le Mans, Team WRT started the final lap 1-2 with the #41 Oreca leading, but Ye slowed on the circuit with a broken throttle sensor. The #31 Team WRT Oreca of Robin Frijns inherited the lead but had the Jota Oreca of Tom Blomqvist breathing now his neck. Frijns was able to hold on by just over 7/10ths of a second to score Team WRT a Le Mans class victory on its Le Mans debut. 

Frijns along with Ferdinand von Habsburg and Charles Milesi would win the final two races of the WEC season and took the Endurance Trophy for LMP2 Drivers championship over Jota. The #41 ELMS entry would finish no worse than fifth all season and picked up a home victory at Spa-Francorchamps, clinching that series championship for Ye, Kubica and Delétraz. 

Team WRT won four championships in two different classes of racing. It had never run a full prototype season before, and it won championships in two different series. This isn't Team Penske winning an IMSA title and IndyCar title in the same season. Team WRT is a successful organization, but it isn't a behemoth with a couple hundred employees. It topped some of the best Europe's best competitions and won on the global level.
 
On the other nominees:
It was a banner year for Hamilton. Entering 2021 with 95 victories, the century mark was bound to happen. It took longer than expected, but he reached it at the Russian Grand Prix, the 15th race of the season after Hamilton made the prudent decision to switch to wet weather tires as a rainstorm came over the circuit in the final ten laps. Hamilton was able to chase down Lando Norris and take advantage of his country, who trying to skate home on slick tires. Hamilton would add three more victories before the season ended.

Rossi did not end his MotoGP on the highest note, but The Doctor's entire career deserves to be celebrated. He made 432 grand prix starts, won 115 times and was a nine-time champion. With numerous records, Rossi was the face of grand motorcycle racing for an entire generation. He raced longer than anyone once thought imaginable in the premier class. At 42 years old, Rossi made his final start, over 25 years after his first start. There will likely not be another rider matching the cultural significance of Rossi. 

It might not take itself too seriously, but the inaugural SRX season was an outstanding success. One, it completed its entire season. Many new sports ventures carry great excitement and then flame out. SRX made it and did not suffer any hiccups. Two, it averaged over a million people for each of its six network broadcasted races. That is great, better than the IndyCar and Formula One average in the United States. It was only six races, but it could have been much worse. Three, SRX raced in front of packed grandstands at famous short tracks. Each race was one you could not miss. Four, it was a good group of drivers, and the races were pretty good. People were sad to see the season end and we all wait for summer 2022 for season two. 

Lost in the shuffle of the Formula One season was Verstappen breaking a Formula One record. Entering 2021, the most podium finishes in a season was 17. Michael Schumacher did it in 2002 and he was on the podium for all 17 races. Sebastian Vettel matched it in 2011. Hamilton matched in four times in 2015-16 and 2018-19. There are more races than ever in a Formula One season, and Verstappen wasn't on the podium for every race like Schumacher in 2002, but breaking this record is remarkable considering how many great drivers came close but fell short. Oh... and Hamilton had 17 podium finishes again this season. 

Past Winners
2012: DeltaWing
2013: Sebastian Vettel for winning nine consecutive races on his way to a fourth consecutive title
2014: Marc Márquez: Setting the record for most wins in a premier class season.
2015: Justin Wilson Memorial Family Auction
2016: Jimmie Johnson for his seventh NASCAR Cup championship
2017: Jonathan Rea: For becoming the first rider to win three consecutive World Superbike championships.
2018: Robert Wickens for winning IndyCar Rookie of the Year despite missing the final three races.
2019: Joe Gibbs Racing setting single-season record for most Cup victories by a in NASCAR's modern-era.
2020: Donald Davidson for 55 years of service to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Indianapolis 500

Moment of the Year
Description: The Most Memorable Moment in the World of Racing during the 2021 season.
And the Nominees are:
Hélio Castroneves' fourth Indianapolis 500 victory
The entire Formula One season
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters Norisring finale
NASCAR Cup Series Bristol Night Race
Bubba Wallace's first Cup victory at Talladega 

And the winner is... The entire Formula One season
There was a lot of hype heading into this Formula One season and every race lived up to it. 

Looking over the 2021 season, there isn't one race that was worth missing. From the season opener when Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes outclassed Max Verstappen and Red Bull when the Austrian manufacture had come out quicker in Bahrain until the controversially final lap at Abu Dhabi, there are too many moments to pick out one. Every race was appointment viewing. 

I view a great championship as one where you are unable to pinpoint one moment where it was decided. That was the case in Formula One this season. The championship pivoted every weekend. After Mercedes topped Red Bull in Bahrain, Verstappen bounced back and took victory at Imola when Hamilton looked stronger. Hamilton won twice on the Iberian Peninsula, notably in Barcelona where Mercedes used a two-stop strategy and chased down Verstappen with fresher tiers. 

At Monaco, Verstappen took a commanding victory while Hamilton was mired in seventh. Verstappen appeared to have a comfortable victory in Azerbaijan until a tire failed on the main straightaway in the closing laps. Hamilton was up to second for the final restart, but an error with the brake bias caused him to blow the first corner and instead of finishing first or second, Hamilton scored zero points.

That is only the first six races of the season and think about how crucial each one of those results felt! 

Verstappen employed the two-stop strategy at the French Grand Prix and beat Hamilton on a one-stopper. It led off a three-race stretch of Red Bull dominance. Verstappen led all 142 laps in Austria and took a 32-point lead in the championship. 

Then came the British Grand Prix, the first sprint qualifying weekend. Verstappen won the sprint. Hamilton knew it would be crucial to get Verstappen at the start. Neither driver was giving an inch, and the championship blew up at Copse. Hamilton was on the inside. Verstappen was on the outside. Neither gave way and contact was made. Verstappen spun off course and Hamilton continued. Verstappen was out and Hamilton remained on track but had a ten-second penalty. Hamilton overcame the penalty and won the race. 

In Hungary, Hamilton was the only car on the grid for the restart as the track dried while waiting under the red flag. I have covered half the races. Look at everything that happened in the first half of the season alone!

I didn't mention the Belgian Grand Prix, a race where the history books will say one lap was completed in three hours and 27 minutes. There was a sea of orange in Zandvoort, Hamilton and Verstappen reenacted their Copse battle in first chicane at Monza, but this time neither driver continued. A late rainstorm took away victory from Lando Norris at Sochi, and while Hamilton won, Verstappen had an impressive drive late to finish second. Hamilton fought back from a grid penalty to finish fifth in Turkey before the top two drivers in the championship went at it in Austin with Verstappen coming out on top. 

In Mexico, Hamilton took a surprise pole position, but Verstappen took the lead in the first corner and never looked back. Then there was the Brazilian Grand Prix, infractions for both manufactures, Hamilton going from 20th to fifth in the final sprint race of the season and then tenth to first in the grand prix, outmaneuvering Verstappen. 

Hamilton put down a beating in Qatar. Saudi Arabia was a mess with questionable driving standards and officiating, but after 21 races, Verstappen and Hamilton were tied entering the finale, the first time the top two in the championship were tied entering the final race since 1974! 
 
The final race lived up to the first 21 races. Verstappen's opening lap pass attempt forcing Hamilton off course, Red Bull employ Sergio Pérez to back up Hamilton to Verstappen during the first pit cycle, multiple strategies Red Bull threw out hoping to beat Mercedes and then the final safety car period, restart, and officiating choice to remove lapped cars from between the top two while not exactly following regulations. Max Verstappen took the lead in the turn five hairpin. Hamilton had two cracks at retaking the top spot. Verstappen held on and won the race, securing him the world championship. 

And we are still talking about one of Formula One's most dramatic seasons over a week after it concluded. We will still be taking until the 2022 season opener at Bahrain. 

On the other nominees:
After running behind closed doors and in the month of August for the first time ever, the 105th Indianapolis 500 returned to Memorial Day weekend and 135,000 spectators were able to attend the race. Far from a packed house, it was the first sense of normalcy at a motorsports event in North America and perhaps the world in over a year. Combined with the public euphoria to be together again, we also got to see an exciting race, the fastest in Indianapolis 500 history to be specific. Incredibly, the final laps were between two of IndyCar's youngest drivers, Álex Palou and Patricio O'Ward, and an unlikely, but tested, veteran, Hélio Castroneves. Castroneves was in his first race with Meyer Shank Racing and his first Indianapolis 500 ever without Team Penske. Twelve years had passed since his third Indianapolis 500 victory, and he was knocking on the door for his fourth for the third time. With two laps to go, Castroneves took the lead from Palou entering turn one and held on to become the fourth four-time winner, 30 years after Rick Mears last joined the club. In celebration, not only did Castroneves climb the fence, but ran up and down the main straightaway. It was a celebration the masses had long been waiting for.

DTM's inaugural season with GT3 regulations had gone particularly well entering the season finale. There were healthy grid sizes, more manufactures were involved, there were quality drivers on the grid, and it was a good sign for the future. The Norisring took the season finale slot after being delayed from the summer due to on-going COVID-19 restrictions. There was a good championship battle between Audi's Kelvin van der Linde and the Red Bull-supported AF Corse Ferrari driver Liam Lawson. Mercedes's Maximilian Götz was a distant third. Götz won the first race of the weekend, but Lawson was third ahead of van der Linde and all Lawson needed was an eighth-place finish to clinch the title. Lawson was on pole position and at the start van der Linde blew the first corner and drilled Lawson. Lawson was significantly damaged and could not maintain competitive pace. Later in the race, van der Linde and Götz made contact, puncturing one of van der Linde's tires and spinning him out of a points position. With Götz left standing in third position, Mercedes drivers Philip Ellis and Lucas Auer moved out of the way in the closing laps to let Götz win the race and the championship by three points over Lawson.

NASCAR's first elimination race at Bristol was not remembered for a driver that did not make it, but two drivers that did advance. Chase Elliott was leading with under 100 laps to go but Kevin Harvick remained close and was looking for his first victory of the season. Elliott had been able to hold off Harvick, but with under 40 laps to go, Harvick made a move low into turn three. Harvick's car slid up in the middle of the corner and made contact with Elliott, cutting one of Elliott's tires and forcing a pit stop. Angered by the move, Elliott returned to the racetrack and was able to drive in front of Harvick. Elliott remained in front and backed Harvick up to Hendrick teammate Kyle Larson. Larson was able to make a move and take the lead with four laps to go. After the race, Elliott and Harvick had an extended confrontation.

On an overcast Monday, NASCAR attempted to complete its fifth race of the playoffs, though it was likely the weather would not cooperate for a full 500-mile race at Talladega. As any Talladega race goes, there was side-by-side racing, moments of single-file running, and a few accidents. After a nine-car incident on lap 99, it was clear the rain would end the race. A mad scramble ensued with everyone trying to be at the front. Ten laps after the restart, Wallace took the lead and had some help from Kurt Busch. On lap 117, a four-car accident occurred on the back straightaway. The rain started falling. There was still a window for the race to be completed, but the rain didn't stop. It intensified. NASCAR called the race and Wallace picked up his first career victory, the second NASCAR Cup Series victory for an African American driver, nearly 58 years after Wendell Scott's lone Cup victory.

Past Winners
2012: Alex Zanardi
2013: 24 Hours of Le Mans
2014: Post-race at the Charlotte and Texas Chase races.
2015: Matt Kenseth vs. Joey Logano
2016: Toyota Slows at Le Mans
2017: Fernando Alonso announcing his Indianapolis 500 ride
2018: Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson battle at Chicagoland
2019: Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing knocking out Fernando Alonso and McLaren and Penske Purchasing Hulman & Co.
2020: March 12-13

Pass of the Year
Description: Best pass of 2021.
And the Nominees are:

And the winner is... Shane van Gisbergen from fourth to second at Sandown
Van Gisbergen had to start 17th in the third race of the Supercars season, and he was doing it with a broken collarbone after a cycling accident just a few weeks earlier. 

The race started in damp conditions and van Gisbergen quickly made his way up the order. He was up five spots in the first lap. From there, van Gisbergen decided to make its pit stop as late as possible in the 36-lap race. That pit stop came with 11 laps to go, and he emerged in fifth position. He would move up to fourth and closed on the leading trio of Chaz Mostert, Cameron Waters and Jamie Whincup.

With three laps to go, Waters took the lead into turn one, Mostert and Whincup went side-by-side into the corner and with momentum on exit from the first corner, van Gisbergen was able to get a run on Mostert and Whincup into turn two. Van Gisbergen had the inside and slipped ahead of both with just slight contact on Mostert on corner exit. 

It was an unlikely move at a difficult part of the circuit, but it was crucial, as van Gisbergen was able to chase down Waters. At the start of the final lap, van Gisbergen took the lead and the fresher tires allowed van Gisbergen to take an incredible victory, broken bones and poor starting position be damned. 

On the other nominees:
I could not include one pass from the first Mazda MX5-Cup race from Sebring. The entire lap needed to be recognized. The lap started with Gresham Wagner leading Michael Carter and Selin Rollan in third. Carter took the lead in turn one after Wagner went wide. Rollan took second after Wagner dropped his right-side tires off track exiting turn three. Carter was unable to pull away and the top three remained under a blanket for the next 12 corners. Down the Ullman straight, Rollan and Wagner slipstreamed ahead of Carter. Entering the final corner, Sunset Bend, Wagner shot up the inside to take the lead and was ahead of Rollan. Exiting the corner, Rollan slid up the inside of Wagner and the two cars were side-by-side. There was still room on the inside for Carter, who made it three-wide as the cars approached the line. At the line, Rollan was ahead of Carter by 0.001 seconds with Wagner in third, 0.013 seconds back.

Herta had the best car at Nashville, but the timing of cautions shuffled Herta out of the lead and down to ninth with 28 laps to go. Herta went on a charge. He was up to seventh with 27 laps to go. From lap 58 to lap 61, Herta made up a position a lap, but the best pass was on lap 59. Trailing teammate Ryan Hunter-Reay, Herta dove up the inside of turn eight and made it stick. No one was making serious attempts in such a tight corner, but with the speed and confidence, Herta went for it. This move put Herta in fourth. In that five-lap span, Herta went from sixth on the restart to third. He would spend two laps in third before he would take second from Scott Dixon. He closed on Marcus Ericsson and perhaps overdrove the car, ending in a collision with the barriers with six laps to go, but it was a drive few in IndyCar could duplicate. 

The opening round of the 2021 Formula E had two exciting races, but race two stood out. Sam Bird and Robin Frijns occupied the top two positions while Techeetah teammates António Félix da Costa and Jean-Éric Vergne were third and fourth. On lap 18, Vergne went up the inside of da Costa into turn 18. Da Costa held the spot but ran a little wide exiting turn 19. Vergne was able to get to the inside and the two drivers were side-by-side through turns 20 and 21. The two drivers made contact but made it through and remained side-by-side down the pit lane straightaway. Vergne had the inside for turn one and took the position. 

The inaugural Saudi Arabian Grand Prix will be remembered for many reasons, but one of the top moments will be the lap 17 restart. The third standing start of the race saw Esteban Ocon in the lead ahead of Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen after Verstappen had run wide on the lap 15 restart and improperly taken the lead and was forced to line up behind Hamilton, who had originally dropped to third when Verstappen took Hamilton wide when returning to the circuit, allowing Ocon to take the position. Hamilton had nailed the first two standing starts and now had the inside with Verstappen on the second row for the third one. Hamilton again had a good start and had the inside for turn one, but Verstappen was able to clear the McLaren of Daniel Ricciardo. Verstappen was able to get to the inside of the corner and pass Hamilton. Ocon ran wide and was going to be forced to relinquish the position, but Verstappen took it for himself into turn four. 

Past Winners
2012: Simon Pagenaud at Baltimore
2013: Robert Wickens at Nürburgring and Peter Dempsey in the Freedom 100
2014: Ryan Blaney on Germán Quiroga
2015: Laurens Vanthoor from 4th to 2nd on the outside in the Bathurst 12 Hour
2016: Scott McLaughlin on Mark Winterbottom at Surfers Paradise
2017: Renger van der Zande: From second to first on Dane Cameron at Laguna Seca
2018: Alexander Rossi for all his passes in the Indianapolis 500
2019: Álex Rins on Marc Márquez in the final corner at Silverstone in the British motorcycle Grand Prix
2020: Pipo Derani on Ricky Taylor into turn one at Road Atlanta

The Eric Idle Award
Description: "When You're Chewing on Life's Gristle, Don't Grumble, Give a Whistle, And This'll Help Things Turn Out For The Best, and...  Always Look On The Bright Side of Life."
And the Nominees are:
Kevin Harvick
Liam Lawson
iRacing
Dennis Foggia
Mitch Evans

And the winner is... Liam Lawson
We touched upon the 2021 Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters season finale above, and Lawson could not have been on the worst side of an outcome. 

The Red Bull-supported driver entered DTM and GT3 racing while combining it with a Formula Two program. It was Lawson's first foray into sports car racing, and it did not take long to get on top. He won on debut at Monza. Through six races he had four podium finishes. He swept the Red Bull Ring races and took the championship lead at Assen with finishes of second and third. Entering the Norisring finale, Lawson led the championship with 14 points over Kelvin van der Linde, and Lawson was 26 points ahead of Maximilian Götz. 

A third in the first race of the Norisring round gave Lawson an 18-point lead over van der Linde and 19 points ahead of Götz. Pole position ahead of race two extended Lawson's lead to 20 points over Götz, who qualified second and 21 points ahead of van der Linde. All Lawson needed was an eighth-place finish to clinch the championship at 19 years old. Then the race started. Van der Linde drove up the inside into the turn two hairpin and made contact with Lawson. The damage took Lawson out of contention for a points finish, meaning he would need to rely on other results going his way. 

Van der Linde and Götz would make contact later in the race, knocking van der Linde out of the fight. Götz was the last championship contender standing, and he had Mercedes teammates more than willing to aid his championship hopes. Lawson was defenseless from lap one. He couldn't protect his championship lead, and with his only teammate Nick Cassidy out of the race as well, he didn't have anyone else out there looking out for him. 

Lawson was near flawless in DTM, not to mention he had been a regular points scorer in Formula Two. It was not the end to the season he deserved. It is one thing to lose a title, but for Lawson to have the opportunity ripped from his hands was unbefitting of his year, and he deserved better as a driver, who had shown great sportsmanship all season.

On the other nominees:
It is not good when you are nominated for this award in consecutive years, but in 2021, it is not because Harvick lost a championship late after dominating, it is because Harvick could not win at all in 2021. He went from nine victories to zero and still ended up fifth in the championship for a second consecutive year. Harvick ran well, regularly finishing in the top ten, but he didn't have the same strength we saw from 2020. 

After getting its moment in 2020, iRacing was met with much distain in 2021. NASCAR attempted an iRacing series that would run companion with the actual series, filling in open Wednesday nights as practice and qualifying was still going to be limited. NASCAR gave up halfway through. Other companion series were not received with the same enthusiasm, and fewer drivers participated. I hate to see iRacing go from this exciting alternative prospect that could complement the actual on-track series to something no one wants to touch. It was a bright spot during the pandemic, but it appears most are rejecting it having any future use, and I believe that is the wrong way to view it. 

Foggia was just hoping to stretch the Moto3 championship to the final race to have a prayer at the championship. With Pedro Acosta leading in the closing laps and Foggia in second, Foggia had to win to stay alive. Acosta led at the start of the final lap, but Foggia was going to have one or two chance to take the lead and remain alive. Instead, in turn three Darryn Binder made a desperate attempt up the inside and took out Foggia. Acosta sped away, won the race, and clinched the title. Foggia never got a chance to make a move. A career year with five victories and 11 podium finishes was ruined. 

At least Foggia made it to the final lap. Evans entered the Formula E finale five points off the championship lead in fourth, but he was the best starting championship hopeful in third. The next best starters of the top five in the championship was ninth. Evans was set to take the championship lead right at the start and just had to hold on to a top three finish with a comfortable cushion to the rest of his championship rivals. However, Evans stalled on the grid, sinking his title hopes immediately. To make matters worse, Edoardo Mortara clattered the back of Evans' stationary Jaguar, ending any chance of even fighting for the title.

Past Winners
2012: Ben Spies
2013: Sam Hornish, Jr.
2014: Alexander Rossi
2015: McLaren
2016: Toyota
2017: Nick Heidfeld
2018: Brett Moffitt
2019: Dennis Lind
2020: Marc Márquez

Comeback of the Year
Description: The Best Comeback in the 2021 season.
And the Nominees are:
Kyle Busch's victory at Pocono
Marcus Ericsson in the Music City Grand Prix
Pedro Acosta: Pit lane start to victory in the Doha Grand Prix
Lewis Hamilton: Victory at the British Grand Prix
Jack Miller: Double long-lap penalty to victory at Le Mans

And the winner is... Kyle Busch's victory at Pocono
Even in contemporary motorsports, gearbox issues usually have catastrophic outcomes. When Busch started experiencing issues on lap five of 140-lap race at Pocono, the outcome was predestined before even close to the end of the first stage. The car slipped out of gear on the lap five restart and Busch had to hold the shifter in fourth gear until the next pit stops. 

The only problem was later in the race Busch's transmission ended up stuck in fourth car while leading the race. Unable to shift out of gear, this race was conceivable over before Busch reached the halfway point and while leading. He wouldn't be able to carry much speed exiting pit lane and he wouldn't be able to have the necessary acceleration on restarts. He made his second pit stop on lap 74, just prior to the end of stage two and immediately fell from the lead to outside the top ten and as one of the final cars on the lead lap. 

The crew worked a contraption to hold the car in gear and allow Busch to keep two hands on the steering wheel, but the likelihood of victory plummeted to near zero. Busch had to lay back on the restart. A few laps into the final stage, another caution came out for debris and the timing meant a driver could possibly stretch the fuel mileage to make it to the end of the race. 

Busch's team topped the car off under each lap prior to the restart. The team also held Busch so he could basically get a head-start on the restart and could build up speed instead of being trapped in the pack and potentially run over. With the strategy to run 45 laps in the final stint, Busch paced himself. Meanwhile, the rest of the field had taken a more aggressive strategy. It wasn't until the final 20 laps that the leaders started to realize they would need to make one more stop. Some tried to aggressive save fuel, but the damage had been done. 

Busch, on the other hand, was toeing the line but getting the mileage necessary to make it. He was also climbing up the order. As the laps dwindled, cars started diving to pit lane for the necessary splash of fuel to make it to the end. They all emerged behind Busch and were not going to be able to chase him down. Busch took the lead with two laps to go after Denny Hamlin conceded the lead for fuel. Busch cruised around on the final lap and took an improbable victory over 8.6 seconds clear of Kyle Larson.  

On the other nominees:
Not often does a race car, more specifically an open-wheel car, go from airborne on a street course to victorious. Ericsson pulled off the unthinkable after climbing over Sébastien Bourdais in the early laps of the inaugural Music City Grand Prix on the streets of Nashville. Ericsson even thought his race was over with his front wing trapped under his wheels. He was ready to pull over and retire, but the bodywork broke free, and the Swede was able to drive back to the pit lane. The crew made the necessary repairs and kept working on the car. Cautions kept falling and Ericsson ended up at the front not needing to stop when everyone else made their initial pit stops. Ericsson had clean air and drove away. Colton Herta made it close, but Herta overstepped and hit the barrier. Ericsson had a two-lap dash and held on for the victory. 

After being penalized for irresponsible riding in the second Friday practice, Acosta, along with six other riders, started the second Moto3 race of 2021 from the pit lane. Already on the back foot, Acosta rode up to the end of the main pack and started making up positions. In the 18-lap race, Acosta did not break into the top ten until lap 15 when he was seventh. He was fifth in lap 16 and took the lead at the end of the penultimate lap. Darryn Binder took the lead on the final lap, but Acosta fought back and crossed the line 0.039 seconds ahead of the South African. 

Touched upon above and one of the first pivotal points in the World Drivers' Championship, Hamilton and Verstappen made contact in Copse on the opening lap of the British Grand Prix. After a lengthy red flag for barrier repairs, Hamilton was penalized ten seconds for avoidable contact. Hamilton made his first pit stop and came out in fourth after the ten-second penalty, but he was over 12 seconds behind leader Charles Leclerc after the pit cycle. Hamilton chased down the Ferrari and made the pass with three laps to go. Hamilton won the race, and the championship lead was down to eight points. 

With changing conditions in the French Grand Prix, Miller was caught speeding in pit lane when switching to the wet-weather bike on lap five. It didn't help that Miller had already gone off while struggling to make it back to pit lane on slicks. Ordered to serve a double long-lap penalty for speeding, Miller lost time to leader Fabio Quartararo, but Miller and Quartararo had pulled away from the field and Miller maintained second position after serving both penalties. Meanwhile, Quartararo had his own long-lap penalty for an improper bike swap. Miller retook the lead after Quartararo served his penalty and Miller never looked back. Quartararo slipped back to third and Miller scored his second career victory, his first since the 2016 Dutch TT.

Past Winners
2013: Michael Shank Racing at the 24 Hours of Daytona
2014: Juan Pablo Montoya to IndyCar
2015: Kyle Busch
2016: Max Verstappen from 15th to 3rd in the final 18 laps in the wet in the Brazilian Grand Prix
2017: Kelvin van der Linde: From third to first after a botched pit stop in the final 20 minutes in the 24 Hours Nürburgring
2018: Billy Monger: Returning to racing after losing his legs and finishing sixth in the BRDC British Formula 3 Championship with four podium finishes and a pole position at Donington Park.
2019: MotoE: For getting to the grid after fire destroyed every motorcycle prior to the first round of the season
2020: The #7 Acura Team Penske: Coming from last in the championship to winning the IMSA DPi championship

Most Improved
Description: Racer, Team or Manufacture Who Improved The Most from 2020 to 2021.
And the Nominees are:
Álex Palou: From 16th on 238 points to first on 549 points in IndyCar
Francesco Bagnaia: From 16th on 47 points to second on 252 points in MotoGP
Laurents Hörr: From 15th on 24 points to first with 105 points in the ELMS LMP3 class
Heart of Racing: From 15th to third in the IMSA GT Daytona class and GTD Sprint Cup champions
Yuven Sundaramoorthy: From 12th on 165 points to third on 329 points in U.S. F2000

And the winner is... Francesco Bagnaia
Bagnaia's first two MotoGP seasons were rather underwhelming. He was on a year-old Ducati for Pramac Racing in 2019, finishing 15th in the championship, but he did finish fourth at Phillip Island that year. He transitioned to the factory Ducati outfit for 2020 and scored his first podium finish with a runner-up at Misano, but that was his only top five finishes of the season, he retired from six of 11 starts and missed three races due to injury, leaving him 16th in the championship on 47 points. 
 
Needing a breakout year and paired with new teammate Jack Miller, Bagnaia immediately answered the called. He won pole position for the season opener and finished third. Two more runner-up finishes came in the first four races. He scored points in nine of the first ten races, was second at the Austrian Grand Prix, and scored his first premier class victory at Aragón after a fierce battle with Marc Márquez. That Aragón was also the first of five consecutive races he started on pole position. 

He would win the next race at Misano and then finished third at Austin. He closed the season with two consecutive victories at Portimão and Valencia. Fabio Quartararo might have clinched the championship with two races remaining, but Bagnaia finished 26 points behind the Frenchman and Bagnaia was 44 points clear of 2020 champion Joan Mir. More importantly, Bagnaia was 71 points clear of teammate Miller after Miller finished 85 points ahead of Bagnaia in 2020 whilst riding for Pramac Racing. 

This season was a big turnaround for Bagnaia, and Ducati heads into 2022 with two legitimate contenders for the world championship.

On the other nominees:
Palou benefitted from joining the Chip Ganassi Racing organization after running with Dale Coyne Racing in his rookie IndyCar campaign. But while Palou showed speeding 2020 and was third in his third career start, He had three top ten finishes all season. He won his first race with Ganassi and had three podium results in the first six races. He ended the season with three victories and eight podium finishes from 16 starts on his way to becoming champion. 

Not many LMP3 drivers get mentioned, but Hörr was nearly untouchable in 2021. His best finish in ELMS competition was sixth in 2020. In 2021, he won three of six races with two different co-drivers. He was in the top five for five of six races, and he started on pole positions four times. On top of his ELMS success, Hörr won the IMSA Prototype Challenge season opener at Daytona, and he won the 24 Hours of Daytona qualifying race in LMP3 before finishing third in class. 

Staying in IMSA, Heart of Racing had two podium finishes in 2020, but it was outside the top five in four of eight starts, and it missed two races. In 2021, Ross Gunn and Roman De Angelis won twice, including the season finale at Petit Le Mans. Heart of Racing had five podium finishes and never finished worse than sixth while it took the Sprint Cup championship. 

Sundaramoorthy's first two full seasons in U.S. F2000 were unremarkable. He was 12th in the championship both years. In 31 starts, he had one top five finish. There was no reason to be over-optimistic for 2021. And then Sundaramoorthy won the season opener. He won three of the first seven races and was on the podium two more times. He ended the season with four victories, tied for the most all season and he stood on the podium after nine of 18 races. His 329 points scored in 2021 was 14 more than he had scored in his first two U.S. F2000 seasons combined. 

Past Winners
2012: Esteban Guerrieri
2013: Marco Andretti
2014: Chaz Mostert
2015: Graham Rahal
2016: Simon Pagenaud
2017: DJR Team Penske
2018: Gary Paffett
2019: Cooper Webb
2020: Joan Mir

And that will do it. With 2021 behind us, there is plenty of exciting things ahead of us for 2022, and competition recommences earlier than usual it feels. We will be into the thick of the season at the start of March. I think we can agree our biggest wish for next year is more normalcy, the return of a few other significant races from around the globe and fewer postponements. This year was better than last, but there is room for it to get better. In recent weeks, it feels like we have taken a step back, but there are reasons for optimism. 

This year ends like all the others: Predictions and Christmas presents. Keep an eye out as we close out 2021.


Wednesday, December 15, 2021

2021 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

The Formula One season is over, and it was a long one. Twenty-races, and that was fewer than originally scheduled. This season ended in the middle of December after beginning in the middle of March. We had a championship begin on the second Sunday of spring and finish nine days before the start of winter. Easter was one week away when the first race began, and we were firmly in the Festive season when the final checkered flag waved. 

Preamble aside, let's get to the predictions. How did thoughts from nearly a year ago play out?

1. Lewis Hamilton will have at least two grand slams
Wrong! In fact, there were only four occasions where the race winner also had fastest lap:

Max Verstappen in the French Grand Prix.
Verstappen in the Austrian Grand Prix.
Hamilton in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. 
Verstappen in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Only one of those was a grand slam, and that was Verstappen in Austria, the Dutchman's first grand slam. Hamilton did lead every lap from pole position in Qatar, but Verstappen had fastest lap in that race. 

But for Hamilton, he did not score a grand slam for the second consecutive season. It is the first time he has gone consecutive seasons without a grand slam driving for Mercedes.

2. Max Verstappen will finish ahead of Valtteri Bottas in the championship
Correct! Not only did Verstappen finish ahead of Bottas, he finished ahead of both Mercedes drivers on his way to winning the world championship. 

Verstappen ended the season on 395.5 points, eight points more than Hamilton and 169.5 points clear of Bottas. 

3. Charles Leclerc is responsible for less than 65% of Ferrari's points
Correct! Leclerc had less than half of Ferrari's points total, scoring 159 of 323.5 points. Carlos Sainz, Jr. beat Leclerc in the championship by 5.5 points. 

Leclerc's share of Ferrari's championship points was 49.149%, making him and Sainz, Jr. practically equals this season and frankly that feels right. 

Sainz, Jr. was on the podium in four races with a runner-up in Monaco before finishes of third in Hungary, Sochi and Abu Dhabi. Leclerc's only podium finish was a runner-up in Silverstone after Lewis Hamilton chased him down and passed Leclerc with three laps remaining.

4. Sebastian Vettel will be the top Aston Martin qualifier in at least 55% of the races
Correct! Let's look at the tape, and I am using the qualifying result for the three sprint qualifying weekends. 

Bahrain: Stroll 10th to 18th (Stroll 1-0)
Imola: Stroll 10th to 13th (Stroll 2-0)
Portugal: Vettel 10th to 17th (Stroll 2-1)
Spain: Stroll 11th to 13th (Stroll 3-1)
Monaco: Vettel 8th to 13th (Stroll 3-2)
Baku: Vettel 11th to 19th* (Stroll did not set a qualifying time) (Tied 3-3)
France: Vettel 12th to 19th* (Stroll did not set a qualifying time) (Vettel 4-3)
Styrian: Stroll 10th to 14th (Tied 4-4)
Austria: Vettel 8th to 10th (Vettel 5-4)
Britain: Vettel 10th to 15th (Vettel 6-4)
Hungary: Vettel 10th to 12th (Vettel 7-4)
Belgium: Vettel 5th to 15th (Vettel 8-4)
Netherlands: Stroll 12th to 15th (Vettel 8-5)
Italy: Vettel 11th to 12th (Vettel 9-5)
Russia: Stroll 8th to 11th (Vettel 9-6)
Turkey: Stroll 9th to Vettel 11th (Vettel 9-7)
United States: Vettel 12th to 16th (Vettel 10-7)
Mexico: Vettel 11th to 20th (Vettel 11-7)
Brazil: Vettel 11th to 15th (Vettel 12-7)
Qatar: Vettel 10th to 12th (Vettel 13-7)
Saudi Arabia: Vettel 17th to 18th (Vettel 14-7)
Abu Dhabi: Stroll 13th to 15th (Vettel 14-8)

Even if you used the sprint race results for the Silverstone, Monza and Interlagos weekends, this prediction is still correct at Vettel was ahead of Stroll at Silverstone and Interlagos. Stroll did finish ahead of Vettel at Monza, but it would still finish Vettel 13-9, and Vettel would still have been the top qualified in 59% of the races. 

5. McLaren gets at least one podium finish that is not because of time penalties or safety car shuffling
Correct! And I would argue all of McLaren's podium finishes were not because of time penalties or safety car shuffling. 

There were a few accidents at Imola, but Lando Norris showed good pace and it got him up to third. At Monaco, Charles Leclerc failed to start the race and then Valtteri Bottas had a stuck wheel nut, but Norris again finished third. Norris started second in Austria and then finished third. 

Then McLaren went 1-2 at Monza but Daniel Ricciardo was third in the sprint race, was lifted to second on the grid after Bottas went to the rear of the field, and Ricciardo took the lead at the start and led 48 of 53 laps on his way to victory. Meanwhile, Norris was third on the grid and ended up second. 

It is arguable McLaren lost its best race due to a poor strategy choice at Sochi. If Norris had stopped for wet weather tires sooner in the closing stages of the race, he would have won comfortably and deservedly so, as he started on pole position and set fastest lap. 

Overall, it was a good year for McLaren. The results are starting to come its way. 

6. Fernando Alonso gets his best championship finish since 2014
Wrong! Alonso ended up tenth in the world championship, and that matches his 2016 championship result, meaning 2021 was not his best championship finish since his sixth in 2014. 

Alonso finished with 81 points, 29 points over off ninth, where he needed to finish for this prediction to be correct. He was seven points ahead of Alpine teammate Esteban Ocon, who won the Hungarian Grand Prix. Alonso's best finish this season was third in Qatar. His only other top five result was a fourth in Hungary and he scored points in 15 of 22 races. 

7. Haas will have its second-best year in terms of points scored
Wait... I wrote that? It is obviously very incorrect! 

Let's see... I wrote: "This is believing Ferrari will figure out its engine, make the necessary upgrades and it with also not let Mick Schumacher's rookie season be a disaster with Haas."

The Ferrari engine was better, but Haas tanked its own season before the first race even started. Haas said it was not going to develop the car at any point this season. This prediction was made well-before Haas' declaration to punt on the 2021 season. 

Was the Haas car good enough that if developed it could have scored 48 points? 

No. I think a developed Haas could have gotten a few points, but I am talking single digit. It could have scored four or five points, but nothing Ferrari did was going to make Haas into a respectable outfit this season.

8. Yuki Tsunoda will score the most points for a Japanese driver in a Formula One season
Wrong! I got this one very wrong as well. 

It looked good at the start with Tsunoda finishing ninth on debut and picking up two points, not quite the pace to get to at least 61 points, but a good start nonetheless. Of course, Tsunoda regularly had incidents in the first-half of the season, and we were noting his spins and off-track excursions. He did pick up six more points at Baku, still well off the necessary pace. 

Tsunoda had a few good days, but two few and not as profitable as Pierre Gasly's best days. Tsunoda was sixth in Hungary, this best finish of the season, but that gave him only 18 points through 11 races. He scored two more points in Austin and then was lost in the chaos of the Abu Dhabi finale on his way to a fourth-place result, giving him 12 more points for 32 points on the season, just more than half predicted.

9. Majority of Alfa Romeo's points do not come in Italy
Correct! In fact, Alfa Romeo scored zero points in Italy. 

Kimi Räikkönen was 13th and Antonio Giovinazzi was 14th in Imola. At Monza, Giovinazzi was 13th and Robert Kubica was 14th, substituting for Räikkönen, who was out with COVID-19. 

Alfa Romeo did score 13 points this season, one in Monaco, one in Baku, one in Hungary, four in Sochi, four in Mexico City and two in Saudi Arabia. 

10. George Russell will be ahead of Nicholas Latifi in the championship for majority of the season
Correct!

Though neither driver scored points in the Bahrain season opener, Russell was 14th while Latifi was classified in 18th, so tiebreaker to Russell. Russell was 14th in Spain and Monaco, and Latifi would not finish ahead of Russell until Baku, where Latifi was 17th and Russell was 18th, but Russell was still ahead. 

Russell raised the bar with a 12th in France before finishing 11th in the Austrian Grand Prix and then 12th again at Silverstone. Latifi's best finish was 14th at Silverstone. 

Then it flipped at Hungary! Latifi finished seventh and scored six points while Russell was eighth and picked up four points. Through 11 races, Russell led 10-1 with 11 races to go. However, the infamous 2021 Belgian Grand Prix flipped it back into Russell's favor. Russell was scored with a runner-up finish. He did qualify second in the wet and seeing as how no green flag laps were completed, Russell got second and scored nine points. Latifi also picked up points that day, one for finishing ninth, but the inter-Williams championship battle swung back in Russell's favor with the Brit on 13 points and Latifi on seven points. 

Latifi would not score another point all season. Russell scored two in Monza and one in Sochi. Overall, Russell was ahead of Latifi after 21 of the 22 races held this season. 

11. More than seven drivers score a fastest lap
Wrong!

There were seven drivers who scored a fastest lap in 2020 and seven drivers scored fastest lap in 2021.

Verstappen and Hamilton each had six fastest laps this season. Bottas had four fastest laps. Sergio Pérez had two while Pierre Gasly, Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris each had one fastest lap, and then there was the Belgian Grand Prix, where no driver is recognized as scoring the fastest lap because no laps were completed under green flag conditions and technically only one lap was scored to the race results.

12. There will be fewer teammates next to each other in the championship
Correct!

In 2020, technically four pairs of teammates were next to each other in the championship. 

In 2021, three pairs of teammates were next to each other in the championship. Mercedes drivers were second and third, Alpine drivers were 10th and 11th, and Aston Martin drivers were 12th and 13th. 

Results: Seven of 12.  Not bad, could have been better. That is a wrap on revisiting predictions for 2021, but don't worry, our batch of 2022 predictions are just around the corner. No literally, they start next week. 



Monday, December 13, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: It Happened This Season

Al Unser passed away, aged 82. It is another legend loss in what has been a difficult year. Max Verstappen clinched his first World Drivers' Championship with a victory in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but this will end with lawyers in Paris. Some drivers are getting to test a Formula One car for the first time over the next few days. Takuma Sato was confirmed at Dale Coyne Racing. Richard Petty Motorsports was purchased. Corvette has committed two cars for the 24 Hours of Daytona, and the team will have a Dane in the car, but not a Magnussen! Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

It Happened This Season
We are at the end of the year. With the Formula One season concluded, we are out of motorsports for 2021. There might be a few minor events, but the next few weekends will be motorsports-less. We will have to celebrate the holiday season. 

Motorsports will be back soon enough with the Dakar Rally, Supercross, and a handful of endurance races in quick succession, but before we get to 2022, we should look back over 2021. A few things happened this year that deserve recognizing.

A Bryant-sponsored car won an IndyCar race
IndyCar's inaugural Music City Grand Prix will be remembered for many reasons. After a thrilling race where Marcus Ericsson went from airborne to victorious after holding off Colton Herta before Herta collided with the barrier. 

While Ericsson was on top, the one thing I noticed through the dusk of an August evening in Nashville was on the side of the winning car. Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems has long been an IndyCar sponsor, having sponsored the likes of Eddie Sachs, Len Sutton, Janet Guthrie, Arie Luyendyk, Sarah Fisher and Tony Kanaan. 

For all those years Bryant has been in IndyCar, Ericsson's victory at Nashville got me wondering when was the last time a Bryant-sponsored car won an IndyCar race? There have been plenty of times Bryant had won as an associate sponsor, even with Kanaan in the 2013 Indianapolis 500, but when was the last time Bryant was a primary sponsor and won an IndyCar? 

September 20, 1998. John Paul, Jr. won the Texas Indy Racing League race driving the #10 Jonathan Byrd's/Visionaire/Bryant Heating and Cooling G-Force-Oldsmobile for Byrd-Cunningham Racing.  

There were 8,358 days, or 22 years ten months and 19 days, between Bryant-sponsored cars winning IndyCar races. Just taking into consideration Indy Racing League-sanctioned races, there were 356 races between Bryant-sponsored car victories. 

A McDonald's-sponsored car won a NASCAR Cup race
A more followed drought was the time between McDonald's-sponsored car victories in the NASCAR Cup Series. Entering 2021, the most recent Cup victory for a McDonald's-sponsored car was on July 24, 1994 at Talladega with Jimmy Spencer taking victory driving for Junior Johnson. It was a Junior Johnson 1-2 finish with Bill Elliott finishing second.

Since Johnson's victory, the likes of Elliott, Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, A.J. Allmendinger, Elliott Sadler, Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson had all driven McDonald's-sponsored cars in NASCAR Cup races. None had won. 

Until October 4, when Bubba Wallace won the rain-shortened Talladega race. It was Wallace's first career victory. It was 23XI Racing's first victory. It was only the fourth Cup victory for car #23 and its first since 1954.

That was 9,934 victories between McDonald's-sponsored car victories in Cup, or 27 years, two months and ten days. Twelve drivers in this October's Talladega race were not born when the last time McDonald's won a Cup race (Christopher Bell, Erik Jones, Anthony Alfredo, Cole Custer, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott, Quin Houff, Justin Haley, Cody Ware, Josh Bilicki, William Byron and Tyler Reddick). 

An Alonso Podium
In the inaugural Qatar Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso finished third and it was his first podium finish since finishing second in the 2014 Hungarian Grand Prix. Alonso made 101 starts between podium finishes, but what stood out the most to me was Alonso's Hungarian Grand Prix runner-up finish was on July 27, 2014.

That runner-up finish was 22 days before Max Verstappen was announced to be joining Scuderia Toro Rosso for the 2015 Formula One season. Only six drivers in that 2014 Hungarian Grand Prix were still on the grid for when Alonso finished third in Qatar (Daniel Ricciardo, Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Räikkönen, Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez). Of those six drivers, only Hamilton was with the same team in 2021 as he drove for in 2014. 

A driver outside the top ten in the world championship won a race
Speaking of Hungary, Esteban Ocon won the 2021 Hungarian Grand Prix after an interesting wet-to-drive race that saw a restart with only Lewis Hamilton on the grid as the rest of the field switched to slick tires because the track had dried out under the red flag. 

With Hamilton shuffled back, Ocon went on to take the lead and held on to score his maiden grand prix victory. 

However, while Ocon won the race, he ended up 11th in the championship. Who was the last driver to win a grand prix and finish outside the top ten in the world championship? 

Who else would it be? Nobody is faster than Pastor Maldonado. 

Maldonado won the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix and wrapped up the season 15th in the championship. Only 18 drivers scored points that season. 

Prior to Maldonado, the previous driver to win and not finish in the top ten of the championship was Giancarlo Fisichella in 2003. Fisichella won the Brazilian Grand Prix, but he was 12th in the championship.

Besides the three in the 21st century, there have been ten other occasions of a grand prix winner finishing outside the top ten in the world championship. 

1951: Luigi Fagioli (won the French Grand Prix sharing a car with Juan Manuel Fangio, and finished 11th in the championship)
1956: Luigi Musso (Won the Argentine Grand Prix sharing a car with Juan Manuel Fangio, and finished 11th in the championship)
1958: Jimmy Bryan (Won the Indianapolis 500 and finished 13th in the championship)
1968: Jim Clark (Won the South African Grand Prix and finished 11th in the championship)
1972: Jean-Pierre Beltoise (Won the Monaco Grand Prix and finished 11th in the championship)
1975: Vittorio Brambilla (Won the Austrian Grand Prix and finished 11th in the championship)
1976: Ronnie Petterson (Won the Italian Grand Prix and finished 11th in the championship)
1979: Jean-Pierre Jabouille (Won the French Grand Prix and finished 13th in the championship)
1982: Nelson Piquet (Won the Canadian Grand Prix and finished 11th in the championship in the season where there were 11 different race winners)
1983: Michele Alboreto (Won the Detroit Grand Prix and finished 12th in the championship)

Bowman's Season
Four victories are typically enough for a good season in the NASCAR Cup Series. It isn't spectacular, but it is far better than average. At least that is how it seems on paper. 

Alex Bowman won four races in the Cup Series this year, tied for second most in the Cup Series with Martin Truex, Jr. and only behind Kyle Larson, but Bowman finished 14th in the championship. The championship format has changed in NASCAR, but even without the playoff format, Bowman would have still finished 14th in the championship. 

When was the last time a driver had four victories in the Cup Series and was outside the top ten in the championship?

Well, it just happened in 2016 when both Martin Truex, Jr. and Brad Keselowski each had four victories but were 11th and 12th in the championship respectively. But without the playoff format, Keselowski would have been fourth in the championship and Truex would have been ninth. 

It also happened in 2015 when Matt Kenseth was 15th in the championship with five victories, but Kenseth was suspended for two races after intentionally spinning Joey Logano at Martinsville. Without the playoffs, Kenseth would have still been 13th. 

Jimmie Johnson was also 11th in the championship in 2014 with four victories. Without the playoff format, Johnson would have been ninth. 

When was the last time a driver had at least four victories, finished outside the top ten of the championship and in a season where the champion was determined via a multi-race aggregate, whether that be 36 races or only ten races? 

Well, again, it kind of just happened. Kyle Busch was 12th with four victories in 2011, but Busch was also parked for one race at Texas after he spun Ron Hornaday, Jr. under caution in a Truck race. Without the Chase format, Busch would have been seventh in the championship even with missing one race. 

It appears to be more common than first thought. 

Jacques Villeneuve won a race!
The biggest surprise of 2021 might have been Jacques Villeneuve winning a race! Not only did Villeneuve win once, he won twice, sweeping the NASCAR Euro Series races held at Vallelunga on October 30-31. 

His Saturday victory was his first victory since April 27, 2008, when Villeneuve won the 1000km of Spa driving the #7 Peugeot with Nicola Minassian and Marc Gené in the European Le Mans Series. Villeneuve had gone 4,934 days between victories, 13 years, six months and three days. 

Prior to that victory in Spa, Villeneuve's next most recent victory was the 1997 Luxembourg Grand Prix at the Nürburgring, his 11th and final grand prix victory, on September 28, 1997. In 24 years, one month and two days, Villeneuve had won two races. Then he won in consecutive days. 

What a year!

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

Oscar Piastri clinched the Formula Two championship with a third-place finish in the first sprint race from Yas Marina.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

Jehan Daruvala, Guanyu Zhou and Oscar Piastri split the Formula Two races from Abu Dhabi.

Coming Up This Weekend
Not much as we move into the offseason. Extreme E will hold its finale, the Jurassic X-Prix in Dorest, United Kingdom. In the future will be predictions and looking back at the best of 2021.


Friday, December 10, 2021

Let's Look at the League Breakdown

With it being December, and 98% of motorsports in hibernation, this is the perfect time to complete some thought experiments that do not fit into a season. 

After the IndyCar season, during my final IndyCar head-to-head league recap, I wondered how all the results broke down over the three years of tracking this mythical championship. How did each finishing position rank in terms of head-to-head results? With head-to-head results, there are 12 winners each week, but the winners can be all over the board. First and third could be winners but second and fourth could be losers. Simultaneously, 20th could be a winner, 23rd could even be a winner. 

In the last three seasons, there have been 47 races, however, because of the pandemic and to keep things on schedule, we also had to incorporate some qualifying sessions to fill out a season, so there are 50 events over these three seasons. To be specific, there have been 47 races plus Texas qualifying in 2020, Indianapolis 500 qualifying in 2020 and Gateway qualifying in 2021 that have counted toward the head-to-head league results.

We are going to look over how each race position has fared during this head-to-head format. I wanted to know what positions produce proportionally more winners than losers and where does it flip in the field? There are certain positions that are near guaranteed for head-to-head victory, but at what point does it slip to 50/50 and the result is in question? 

One note before we get started, while we are looking at 50 different sessions between races and qualifying, there will not be 50 results for every position. In the later races when there are playoffs, there are fewer head-to-head matchups and non-playoff participants. There are also races where a car is in the race that does not figure into the league format, such as one-off entries. Those one-off entries would not factor into the data. 

There were also only 23 participants in the 2020 season because the #31 Carlin entry did not materialize and League Two only had seven participants that year. 

We are going to go position-by-position, give the head-to-head record for each position and then a little breakdown about some of the results. 

1st: 44-0 (100%)
Of course, if you win a race, you will likely win a head-to-head matchup. I don't know how you could win a race and lose a head-to-head matchup. 

There have been a few races where the race winner was not a head-to-head winner because that entry was already eliminated from playoff contention. That was the case for the final three races in 2019 where Takuma Sato, Will Power and Colton Herta all won. It also happened for the second Harvest Grand Prix race in 2020 with Power. It was also the case for the final two races in 2021 with Herta winning both. 

The only other race that did not feature a winner as a head-to-head winner was the 2021 Indianapolis 500 with Hélio Castroneves in the part-time Meyer Shank Racing entry.

There have been four head-to-head race winners who were League Two entries. The first two victories were Colton Herta, Austin 2019 and the second Mid-Ohio race in 2020. The other two victories were Marcus Ericsson this year in the first Belle Isle race and Nashville.

2nd: 41-3 (93.18%)
The only way for second to lose a head-to-head matchup is to the race winner and it has happened three times in three years.

The first was the 2019 Indianapolis 500, Simon Pagenaud over Alexander Rossi.

The next two both happened in 2020, and they were in consecutive races. Scott Dixon defeated Graham Rahal in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and in the next race Dixon won the first Road America race ahead of Will Power. 

3rd: 38-6 (86.36%)
For third to lose, it can only lose to first or second. 

Third was 13-1 in 2019. Its only loss was Texas with Josef Newgarden winning the race while Rahal was third.

In 2020, third was 12-3 with two "nose-to-tail" results, as in losing to the car directly ahead of us. The first was the second Road America race. Patricio O'Ward was second while Alexander Rossi was third. It happened at the Indianapolis 500 again with Dixon in second ahead of Rahal, another top three result where Rahal was a head-to-head lose. The final one was the championship matchup at St. Petersburg Newgarden won the race and the championship and Dixon was third.

Third went 13-2 in 2021. It lost nose-to-tail in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis with Romain Grosjean in second ahead of Álex Palou. It then happened at Mid-Ohio with Newgarden winning the race while Palou was third.

4th: 36-5 (87.804%)
For the next few entries, I am just giving the yearly record and losses.

2019: 11-4, fourth lost the first four races, three of which were nose to tail.
St. Petersburg: Will Power (3rd) def. Felix Rosenqvist 
Austin: Newgarden (2nd) def. Rahal (another top finish loss for Rahal)
Barber: Sébastien Bourdais (3rd) def. Newgarden 
Long Beach: Dixon (3rd) def. Rahal (We need to do a deep dive on the Graham Rahal results. He has lost four times while finishing in the top four). 

2020: 11-1. The only loss was nose-to-tail, the first Harvest Grand Prix race: Rinus VeeKay over Colton Herta.

2021: 14-0! And it had its first nose-to-tail result in the August IMS road course race: Alexander Rossi def. O'Ward.

5th: 39-5 (88.636%)
2019: 15-1
Toronto: Pagenaud (1st) def. Rosenqvist 

2020: 10-2. 
Texas: Newgarden (3rd) def. Ed Carpenter 
Iowa II: Newgarden (1st) def. Dixon 

2021: 14-2.
Belle Isle II: Palou (3rd) def. Rahal (There is another Rahal loss while in the top five).
August IMS road course: Rossi (4th) def. O'Ward 

6th: 35-5 (87.5%)
2019: 12-3
Barber: Rossi (5th) def. Hinchcliffe 
Belle Isle II: Marcus Ericsson (2nd) def. Marco Andretti 
Mid-Ohio: Rossi (5th) def. Pagenaud 

2020: 13-0! But no nose-to-tail results.

2021: 10-2. No nose-to-tail results.
Barber: O'Ward (4th) def. VeeKay
Texas I: Palou (4th) def. Newgarden 

Two of five losses were nose-to-tail results.

7th: 32-10 (76.19%)
2019: 9-7. Kind of makes sense. 

Plus, two nose-to-tail losses.
St. Petersburg: James Hinchcliffe def. Simon Pagenaud.
Pocono: Ed Carpenter def. Bourdais.

But there was one nose-to-tail victory.
Iowa: Rossi def. Zach Veach.

2020: 12-0! I cannot explain it. This is the worst position to have a perfect season with at least seven results. Besides first place, the only other positions to have perfect seasons were sixth in 2020 (13-0), second in 2021 (15-0) and fourth in 2021 (14-0). 

Seventh had one nose-to-tail victory this season: Mid-Ohio II: Power def. Newgarden. 

2021: 11-3 with two nose-to-tail victories, and they were consecutive events.
August IMS road course race: Rahal def. Newgarden.
Gateway qualifying: Rossi def. Dixon

8th: 27-17 (61.36%)
This is where the records drop off. From here on down, no position has a head-to-head winning percentage greater 64%. Only six of the remaining 15 positions have a winning percentage above 50%.

Eighth still has respectable results, 10-6 in 2019, 9-5 in 2020 and 8-6 in 2021. 

Its only nose-to-tail victory was the second Road America race in 2020: Sato def. Newgarden.

9th: 26-15 (63.41%)
This is the first position to have a losing season. 

While ninth went 10-5 in 2019, it went 6-8 in 2020 but bounced back to be 10-2 in 2021.

Its only nose-to-tail victory was Gateway in 2021: Ericsson def. Harvey.

10th: 23-15 (60.52%)
Year one was not kind for tenth, going 5-5 in 2019, but it went 9-4 in 2020 with three nose-to-tail victories. 

Iowa II: Andretti def. Kanaan
Indianapolis 500 qualifying: Herta def. Ericsson
Gateway I: Daly (in Carlin's #59 entry) def. Jack Harvey.

Tenth went 9-6 in 2021.

11th: 24-18 (57.14%)
Eleventh is interesting. 

It was 9-5 in 2019, but dropped to 4-9 in 2020, however it bounced back to 11-4 in 2021. 

Eleventh had two nose-to-tail victories in 2021:
Belle Isle II: Hunter-Reay def. Sato. 
Mid-Ohio: Bourdais def. McLaughlin

12th: 22-20 (52.38%)
Twelfth has always been within two games of .500, going 8-6 in 2019, 7-6 in 2020 and 7-8 in 2021.

It has had one nose-to-tail victory in each of the three seasons. 
2019 Toronto: Jones def. Veach
2020 Indianapolis 500: Rosenqvist def. Andretti
2021 Portland: Sato def. Power

13th: 15-27 (35.71%)
This is where things drop off, outside of one outlier. Nine of the remaining ten positions have winning percentages below 40%. While 2020 saw 13th go 8-5, it was 3-11 in 2019 and 4-11 in 2021. 

Thirteenth's only nose-to-tail victory was at Nashville this past season: O'Ward def. Power.

14th: 17-27 (38.63%)
Fourteenth is the first position without a winning season with records of 4-11, 6-7 and 7-9. 

It's only nose-to-tail result was a victory at Texas in 2020, Andretti def. Rossi.

15th: 21-20 (51.21%)
This is the final position with a winning record. It went 9-5 in 2019, 5-8 in 2020 and 7-7 in 2021.

It has twice won nose-to-tail results:
St. Petersburg 2019: Kanaan def. Chilton
Texas I 2021: Pietro Fittipaldi (in the #51 Coyne entry) def. Hunter-Reay.

16th: 13-29 (30.95%)
We drop over 20% points in record between 15th and 16th. It's best season was 2019 at 4-9 before dropping to 3-11 in 2020 and rising back to 6-10 this past season. 

It's only nose-to-tail victory was at Long Beach in 2019, Ed Jones in the #20 ECR entry defeated Zach Veach.

17th: 15-27 (35.71%)
2019: 4-10
2020: 6-8
2021: 5-9

Both of 17th's nose-to-tail victories were in 2019.
Belle Isle II:  Pagenaud def. Hinchcliffe.
Mid-Ohio: RC Enerson (in the #31 Carlin entry) def. Matheus Leist

18th: 10-28 (26.31%)
This is the final position with a winning percentage over 25%. It is also the point where we can start listing all the winners for each position.  

2019: 4-7
Barber: Kanaan def. Herta (24th)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Chilton def. O'Ward (19th)
Toronto: Power def. Ericsson (20th)
Iowa: Herta def. Karam (22nd)

2020: 3-9
Road America I: Rosenqvist def. Rossi (19th)
Indianapolis 500: Kimball def. VeeKay (20th)
Mid-Ohio I: Pagenaud def. Andretti (23rd)

2021: 3-12
St. Petersburg: Hinchcliffe def. O'Ward (19th)
Indianapolis 500: Harvey def. Bourdais (26th)
Mid-Ohio: Chilton def. Jimmie Johnson (22nd)

19th: 7-32 (17.94%)
2019: 2-11
St. Petersburg: Sato def. Hunter-Reay (23rd)
Iowa: Carpenter def. Sato (20th)

2020: 1-13
Iowa I: VeeKay def. Herta (20th)

2021: 4-8
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Bourdais def. Johnson (24th)
Belle Isle I: Scott McLaughlin def. Johnson (24th)
Belle Isle II: Harvey def. McLaughlin (20th)
Mid-Ohio: Harvey def. Kellett (21st)

20th: 6-34 (15%)
2019: 2-12
Road America: Leist def. Kanaan (21st)
Gateway: Dixon def. Power (22nd)

2020: 2-11
Texas: Rosenqvist def. Santino Ferrucci (21st)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Power def. Oliver Askew (26th)

2021: 2-12
St. Petersburg: Jones def. Rossi (21st)
Indianapolis 500: McLaughlin def. Dalton Kellett (23rd)

21st: 4-33 (10.81%)
This is the first position with a winless season. In 2019, 21st went 0-11. 

This position went 2-11 in 2020 and 2021.
2020 Road America II: Askew def. Rahal (23rd)
2020 Harvest Grand Prix I: Bourdais def. Andretti (25th)

2021 Barber: Rosenqvist def. Newgarden (23rd)
2021 Indianapolis 500: Hinchcliffe def. Jones (28th)

22nd: 2-40 (4.76%)
After going 1-12 in 2019 and 1-14 in 2020, 22nd went 0-14 in 2021. 

The victories: 
2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Rossi def. Ericsson (24th)
2020 Gateway II: Veach def. Ericsson (23rd). These were the bottom two finishers in the race.

23rd: 6-27 (18.18%)
After going 0-8 in 2019, 23rd went 2-9 in 2020, and the first time was one of the rare instances of last place getting a win. 

Álex Palou was 23rd out of 23 starters in the Texas season opener but won. How? Well, his opponent failed to start the race, as Takuma Sato had a qualifying accident prevent him from starting the race. The other win for 23rd was Indianapolis 500 with Tony Kanaan was 23rd edging out Simon Pagenaud (25th). 

In 2021, 23rd went 4-10.
St. Petersburg: Dalton Kellett (23rd) def. Max Chilton (24th)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Jack Harvey (23rd) def. Chilton (DNS)
Belle Isle I: Romain Grosjean (23rd) def. Rosenqvist (25th)
August IMS road course race: Scott McLaughlin (23rd) def. Kellett (26th)

24th: 0-19 (0%)
This was not a prominent position in the first two years, going 0-4 in 2019 and 0-1 in 2020, but it went 0-14 in 2021. 

It has lost one nose-to-tail results:
St. Petersburg 2021: Kellett def. Chilton

25th: 0-11 (0%)
Only once was 25th featured in a head-to-head matchup in 2019. It had three losses in 2020. Twenty-fifth went 0-7 in 2021, and those seven results all came in consecutive events, from the Grand Prix of Indianapolis through Nashville. None of those losses have been nose-to-tail.

26th: 1-6 (16.667%)
Our worst head-to-head winner in three years this tracking was 26th and not only was it the worst result but it was also a nose-to-tail result, and it was not in the Indianapolis 500.

Jimmie Johnson was 26th at Nashville in August in the #48 Ganassi entry. Johnson was matched up with Sébastien Bourdais in that Raceway, who ended up finishing 27th in the #14 Foyt entry. A better encapsulation of a chaotic race.

27th: 0-8 (0%)
Eight times has a head-to-head competitor finished 27th and six of those happened this year! 

Indianapolis: Felix Rosenqvist in the #7 AMSP.
Nashville: Sébastien Bourdais in the #14 Foyt, as mentioned above.
August IMS road course: Álex Palou in the #10 Ganassi.
Portland: James Hinchcliffe in the #29 Andretti.
Laguna Seca: Takuma Sato in the #30 RLLR
Long Beach: Patricio O'Ward in the #5 AMSP.

Those last three were all playoff matchups. 

The other two results for 27th were both in the Indianapolis 500: Marco Andretti in the #98 Andretti in 2019 and Ed Carpenter in the #20 ECR entry last year.

28th: 0-3 (0%)
All of these were in the Indianapolis 500 and the losers were the #10 Ganassi (Felix Rosenqvist), the #55 Coyne (Álex Palou) and the #18 Coyne (Ed Jones).

29th: 0-3 (0%)
This is one where the losers were not in the Indianapolis 500 because Indianapolis 500 qualifying counted toward the league in 2020. Two have been Andretti Autosport drivers, Zach Veach in the #26 Andretti in 2019 and Alexander Rossi in the #27 Andretti this year. The other is Charlie Kimball in the #4 Foyt entry in 2020 Indianapolis 500 qualifying. 

30th: 0-3 (0%)
Head-to-head league participants have a knack for finishing at the back of the Indianapolis 500. First, it was the #18 Coyne entry with Sébastien Bourdais, the #7 AMSP entry with Oliver Askew and Will Power in the #12 Penske entry.

31st: N/A 
In three years of the league format, the 31st-place finisher in the Indianapolis 500 has not been a head-to-head league participant. Kyle Kaiser with Juncos Racing in 2019, Dalton Kellett in the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing in 2020 and Simona de Silvestro with Paretta Autosport this past year.

32nd: 0-2 (0%)
Each of the last two years has 32nd been a head-to-head loser.
Marcus Ericsson in 2020 and Graham Rahal in 2021.

33rd: 0-1 (0%)
The only time a league participant was last in the Indianapolis 500 was 2019 when Colton Herta broke down after three laps. 

DNQ/DNS: 0-3 (0%)
If race winners are virtually guaranteed victory, those who failed to qualify and did not start are virtually guaranteed defeat. It has happened three in the three years of this format, and it has happened to the same entry twice

Max Chilton failed to qualify for the 2019 Indianapolis 500, assuring a loss for the #59 Carlin entry. Then it happened in 2020 when Takuma Sato had an accident in qualifying for the Texas season opener and was unable to start. In 2021, Chilton had a visa issue prevent him from arriving to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in time and Carlin withdrew the #59 entry instead of fielding a substitute driver. 

The Champion and the Relegated
One final thing I wanted to look at was where the head-to-head league champion ranked in the actual championships and where the relegated teams ranked in the actual championship.

Josef Newgarden has won the head-to-head championship in all three seasons. If that doesn't confirm Newgarden is one of the best around, I don't know what will.

In these three seasons, Newgarden was first, second and second in the actual championship. That lines up with expectations. You would believe the best drivers overall would also end up being the best in a fictional head-to-head championship format. 

But what about the other finalists? 

In 2019, the #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry ended up in the final with a combination of Carpenter and Ed Jones. The #20 ECR entry scored 338 points, good for 14th in the entrants' championship, coincidentally directly ahead of the #21 ECR entry with Spencer Pigot by three points. 

The 2020 head-to-head championship fight was between the two drivers in the actual championship fight. Newgarden vs. Dixon. Newgarden lost the actual championship but won the head-to-head championship. Dixon lost the head-to-head championship but won the actual championship. 

Newgarden's opponent in the final was Patricio O'Ward, and O'Ward was third in the actual championship. Meanwhile, the actual champion Álex Palou was sixth in his conference and didn't even make the playoffs. Dixon was one of the other semifinalists this year and he was fourth in the championship while Sato took the last semifinal spot, and he was 11th. 

As for the relegated, in 2019 it was the #26 Andretti entry with Zach Veach and the #21 ECR entry with Spencer Pigot. Those drivers were 18th and 14th in the championship receptively. Promoted that year were the #19 Coyne entry with Santino Ferrucci and the #14 Foyt entry with Tony Kanaan. Ferrucci was 13th in the championship and Kanaan was 15th. 

In 2020, the #20 ECR entry went down, as did the #14 Foyt entry, two cars that ran multiple drivers. Those entries combined for 192 points and 216 points respectively. For perspective, Charlie Kimball was full-time and scored 218 points to end up 18th in the championship. Promoted were Colton Herta, who was third in the championship in the #88 Andretti Harding Steinbrenner Racing entry, and the #21 ECR entry bounced back with Rinus VeeKay, who was 14th in the championship. 

With the addition of the promotion playoff this year, possibly three teams could go down and three did. The two automatic relegations were the #21 ECR entry with Rinus VeeKay, which has become our first yo-yo club in this experiment, and the other was the #7 AMSP entry with Felix Rosenqvist. VeeKay did miss one race due to injury, and Rosenqvist missed two. Those entries were 11th and 21st in the entrants' championship respectively. 

James Hinchcliffe also lost in the promotion playoff, and he was relegated from League One. The #29 Andretti entry and Hinchcliffe were both 20th in their respective championships. 

The automatic promotions went to Marcus Ericsson, sixth in the championship, and Jack Harvey, 13th in the championship. Scott McLaughlin defeated Hinchcliffe in the promotion playoff, lifting McLaughlin up to League One for 2022. 

What does this all mean?
Frankly, not that much. If you finish at the front regularly, you are going to do well. The best drivers are the best drivers and there are some midfield drivers who inexplicably perform than the rest when paired against top opposition. That and if you are in League Two and finish somewhere between 13th and 15th in the championship, you are likely moving up. 

It was fascinating to see how often nose-to-tail results happen and who has great finishes on the racetrack but have the head-to-head result go against them. Graham Rahal cannot get a break. Second through fifth have lost a combined 19 times. Rahal is responsible for six of them. No other driver has lost a head-to-head matchup while finishing in the top five more than twice. 

It is fun to follow and a different way to look at a race.