Monday, December 28, 2020

2021 Formula One Predictions

Our Formula One predictions are a little late compared to our typical Boxing Day tradition, but with Boxing Day falling on a Saturday, Monday made more sense. We are only 15 days removed from the end of the 2020 Formula One season, one that was as chaotic as they come, with races moved and created almost out of thin air. 

Hopefully, 2021 will stick to the script a little more than 2020 did, and hopefully that plays into the favor of these predictions. 

1. Lewis Hamilton will have at least two grand slams
We are still not sure Hamilton will be on the 2021 grid, but if he is, I expect him to be exceptional, and a grand slam is the greatest possible on-track performance. Leading every lap, from pole position with fastest lap to boot. 

It is a rare occurrence. Last year, there were no grand slams. It has only happened in 62 of 1,035 Formula One races, that is 5.99%. However, Hamilton has done it in every odd-numbered season since 2015, including doing it three times in 2017. 

Two more grand slams would tie Hamilton with Jim Clark's record of eight. Hamilton is already tied for the most championships all-time; he is the all-time leader in victories and the all-time leader in pole positions, having a share for most grand slams would just be another fitting footnote for the man from Stevenage. 

Where could it happen? I was actually curious if there is a track where grand slams happen more than other facilities. It is something tough to earn. For starters, you need to be on pole position and then you need to make each of your pit stops with a large enough gap that you will not be overtaken and then you need to run the fastest lap, which is harder to do because drivers today run various tire strategies. With the point for fastest lap reestablished, drivers can now make a stop late and gun for that bonus point. 

It should come as no surprise that the track with the most grand slams is Monaco, the place where it is toughest to pass and if you can get away with the lead at the start you will have all the clean air in the world. There have been five grand slams in the principality, but none since Mike Häkkinen in 1998. 

Two tracks have had four: Silverstone and Nürburgring. Only Silverstone is on the 2021 calendar, but all four grand slams at the Nürburgring were on the Nordschleife, with the last being Jacky Ickx in 1972. In fact, the four Silverstone grand slams have come on three different layouts, though Hamilton did score a grand slam on the current layout in 2017. 

Along with Monaco and Silverstone, the other tracks on the current 2021 schedule to have a grand slam are Abu Dhabi, Baku, Barcelona, Budapest, Interlagos, Melbourne, Mexico City, Montreal, Monza, Paul Ricard, Red Bull Ring, Shanghai, Singapore, Sochi, Spa-Francorchamps, Suzuka and Zandvoort. 

That is 19 tracks. It would be easier listing the three tracks not to host one: Bahrain, Austin and Jeddah (which hasn't hosted a race yet), but it is misleading to say 19 tracks on the 2021 schedule have hosted a grand slam. 

Jack Brabham is responsible for the only grand slam at Spa-Francorchamps and that was in 1960 on the full course, which hasn't been used in 50 years. The one grand slam at the Red Bull Ring was on the original Österreichring layout with Jo Siffert, 49 years ago, same as Circuit Paul Ricard with Jackie Stewart. Zandvoort's last grand slam was in 1963, same as Mexico City. Clark was responsible for both of those.

Sixteen grand slams have occurred in the 21st century. Those 16 grand slams have occurred at 15 different tracks. The only track to host multiple grand slams in the last 20 years is Singapore. Twelve of those 15 tracks are on the 2021 schedule. 

Could Hamilton break the Monaco grand slam drought? Could he get another on home soil at Silverstone?  Could he do it again at Montreal or Shanghai or Abu Dhabi? You cannot pin down when a grand slam is going to happen. It builds over a weekend and then over the course of a race. 

A modern grand prix is not set up for grand slams, but Hamilton and Mercedes have been the combination for the achievement. In the turbo hybrid-era, only Mercedes has scored a grand slam, six with Hamilton and two with Nico Rosberg. For all the consternation we hear from Hamilton during races about tire degradation and other gremlins, he performs at the highest level on a frequent basis. 

2. Max Verstappen will finish ahead of Valtteri Bottas in the championship
Verstappen was nine points behind Bottas in the championship this year and that was after Verstappen had five retirements, while Bottas had one retirement and two finishes outside the points. Every time Verstappen finished a race, he was in the points and only one was not a podium finish, sixth at Turkey. 

Verstappen lost a surefire podium result at Imola when he lost a tire entering Tamburello, costing him a second-place finish and 18 points. That one result alone would have put Verstappen on 232 points at the end of the season and Bottas would have finished with 220 points. It was a 21-point swing in the championship. 

Red Bull might be second to Mercedes, but Verstappen is on par and arguably was equal to Bottas all season. Both drivers had two victories. Both drivers had five runner-up finishes. Both drivers had three third-place finishes. The biggest difference was those five retirements against Verstappen. 

It feels like Bottas is at a place where Sebastian Vettel was at the end of 2019. Hamilton was miles ahead of him all season. Then George Russell stepped into the car for the Sakhir Grand Prix and was immediately on Bottas' heels. Bottas will need a significant improvement in his results to save his seat ahead of the 2022 season. Russell is ready for the big time. If Hamilton decides to walk away after the 2021 season, then Bottas might get another year, but he will be the second driver if Russell gets the promotion. Even if Hamilton walks, Mercedes might want a fresh start with Russell and another young driver. 

Verstappen on the other hand has the confidence of Red Bull and was breathing down Bottas' neck in 2020. Red Bull is finding its groove, Sergio Pérez joins Verstappen, and Red Bull will have extra incentive to succeed in 2021 with it being Honda's final season. It has one final roll of the dice in a car that has been competitive the last two seasons. With Bottas potentially slipping and Verstappen rising, I expect an improvement from Red Bull that will at least bring Verstappen ahead of the second Mercedes. The notable gap to Hamilton likely will still remain, but Red Bull will break the Mercedes stranglehold with Verstappen.

3. Charles Leclerc is responsible for less than 65% of Ferrari's points
Ferrari is coming off its worst season since 1980. 

After finishing in the top five of the World Constructors' Championship for 39 consecutive seasons, Ferrari was sixth in the constructors' battle in 2020, its worst finish since being tenth in 1980. 

The Scuderia amassed 131 points, with majority of it coming from the Monegasque Leclerc. He picked up 98 points, 74.8% of Ferrari's total while Sebastien Vettel contributed 33 points. 

Vettel was off all season and I am not sure if it was a one-year lame duck thing or a larger sign of a champion who has lost his ability. It was clear at the end of 2019 Ferrari was Leclerc's team and Vettel's time was likely going to end with the conclusion of the 2020 season. However, with Carlos Sainz, Jr. joining the operation, Sainz will want to establish himself in the Ferrari camp and run respectable to Leclerc.

Sainz, Jr. ended up on 105 points in 2020, sixth in the World Drivers' Championship with McLaren. Ferrari struggled across the board, with none of its customer team running all that well either. With possibly as many as 23 races on the 2021 calendar, Sainz, Jr. might step in and score at least 105 points. If he carries over his points per race total of 6.176 points from 2020 to 2021, he would end up with about 142 points. If Leclerc carries over his 5.764 points per race, he would end up on about 132 points.

If Ferrari were to score 131 points again in 2021 that would mean Leclerc would have to score 85 points or fewer, leaving 46 points for Sainz. Sainz is going to score more than 46 points. If Sainz were to take a 30% decrease in points from his McLaren results, he would end up with about 69 points, which means Leclerc would need to score 129 points to make this prediction incorrect. That would be a 60 points difference between the two drivers. I don't see Leclerc scoring that many points more than Sainz. 

I don't think Sainz will be able to match his 2020 results, but I think he will be close to Leclerc. Leclerc might get an advantage in having been with the team for two seasons and he could end up with about 60% of Ferrari's points total, but even that seems like a larger than likely gap between the two drivers. 

4. Sebastian Vettel will be the top Aston Martin qualifier in at least 55% of the races
Vettel will look to revive his career in a rebranding operation as Aston Martin returns as a Formula One constructor for the first time since the 1960 British Grand Prix. 

The good news for Vettel is he should be moving to a more powerful engine in a Mercedes and he should be moving to a better car in the Aston Martin, which should be some evolution of the Racing Point RP20, which was a close copy of the Mercedes W10, which won the 2019 world championship. 

This is Vettel's last chance to get his career back on track. He needs results at Aston Martin to hope any major team will call him again and the bar has been set very high. Racing Point was fourth in the constructors' championship in 2020, missing out on third by seven points and the team lost 15 points for its brake ducts being too similar to the 2019 Mercedes. 

Sergio Pérez ended up fourth in the drivers' championship with 125 points and a popular victory at the Sakhir Grand Prix, but that also included him missing two races. Lance Stroll ended 11th in the championship on 75 points. 

Vettel has to at least beat Stroll. If he cannot beat Stroll that is a dagger to his career. Leclerc had Vettel's all of 2020 and the difference between the two drivers was notable in qualifying. 

Vettel qualified ahead of Leclerc three times (Styrian Grand Prix, Turkey and Bahrain). Vettel only made it to the final round of qualifying three times (Styrian, Hungary and Great Britain). Leclerc was in the final round 11 times and his average starting position was 3.8 spots better than Vettel. This was Vettel's worst year in qualifying with an average starting position of 12.1, behind only his 2007 season when he joined Toro Rosso midseason 

Pérez averaged a starting position of 7.4 and Stroll averaged a starting position of 8.5. Pérez made the final round of qualifying in 12 of 15 appearances. Stroll made it in 11 of 16 appearances. Nico Hülkenberg made it in one of his three appearances. That is 24 Q3 appearances out of a possibly 34 appearances. 

The car should be there for Vettel and his career average starting position is 5.4. Besides his part-time year at Toro Rosso and last season, the only times his average starting position was above 7.0 was an 11.0 in 2008 at Toro Rosso and a 7.8 in his final year with Red Bull in 2014. 

Stroll topped Pérez in qualifying six times out of 14 occasions. If there are 23 races in 2021, Vettel would have to be the top Aston Martin qualifier at 13 races. I think Vettel will find a resurgence at Aston Martin. He has to after his shameful end at Ferrari, but also after Pérez's mighty season the year before. Aston Martin will be a new name, but this team won a race last year. It had four podium finishes. Both cars scored points in ten of 17 races. Vettel cannot repeat his 2020 form. The expectations exceed those of a four-time world champion and include a capable race team who has proven it can win without him. 

5. McLaren gets at least one podium finish that is not because of time penalties or safety car shuffling
McLaren picked up its second podium finish in three races when Lando Norris was awarded third at the season opening Austrian Grand Prix. Seven races later, Carlos Sainz, Jr. was second at Monza. McLaren ended up third in the constructors' championship, its best finish since 2012 when it ended up third and Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton combined to win seven of 20 races. 

Woking is still waiting on that victory, but to be back in the top third of the champion and visit a few podiums is a big step for the organization after the previous five seasons. Each podium finish from 2020 does carry a little bit of a footnote. Norris picked up third in Austria after Hamilton had a five-second time penalty added. Norris got the spot by 0.198 seconds. Sainz was runner-up at Monza after the safety car periods and Hamilton's penalty for pitting when the pit lane was closed. 

This is not to diminish McLaren's season because the team deserved both those finishes. Norris was strong all race at Austria and picked up fastest lap. Sainz did qualify third at Monza. The team had three total fastest laps and it had both cars in the points in ten races. Overall, McLaren had 12 top five finishes and had both cars finish in the top five in three races.

There will be a change in the 2021 McLaren replaces the Renault power unit with a Mercedes unit. While switching back to arguably the best power unit on the grid should give the team some excitement, the 2021 car should be somewhat similar to the 2020 car, which was built for a Renault in the back. It will not be as simple as plugging in the Mercedes and hitting the racetrack. We have seen cars suffer because the entire package does not fit together. Red Bull suffered this issue one season when it had Renault power and everything was too tight together, leading to an overheating problem. McLaren's issue with Honda might have come down to a team that was unable to build a car properly around the power unit 

I believe McLaren will figure out how to get the most out of the Mercedes engine and the team will perform better in 2021. I think it can give Aston Martin a run for its money as second-best Mercedes-powered team and I think Norris combined with Daniel Ricciardo, who picked up two podium finishes, ended up fifth in the drivers' championship and scored points in 14 of 17 races including in 11 consecutive races to ended the season, will get the McLaren on the podium at least once because of pure speed more than a fortunate cycle of events.

6. Fernando Alonso gets his best championship finish since 2014
After two seasons out of Formula One, Alonso is back, and it will be his third tour of duty with the team that will be known as Alpine. 

After his four-year headache with McLaren and Honda, Alonso heads to an organization that is heading into 2021 trending in the right direction. Renault ended up fifth in the constructors' championship with 181 points with three podium finishes. Daniel Ricciardo was fifth in the championship on 119 points. Esteban Ocon was 12th with 62 points, in what was an underwhelming season.  

Alonso's best championship finish in his four years with McLaren-Honda was tenth. He was sixth with Ferrari in 2014. His worst championship finish with Renault was ninth in 2009. 

If you averaged the championship finishes of the two Renault drivers in 2020, it comes out to 8.5. If Alonso runs average to what we think the Renault is capable of, he fulfills the prediction. 

There are some questions over whether or not Ricciardo is making the right decision leaving Renault for McLaren. After finishing fifth in the world championship and ahead of both McLaren's, Ricciardo is conceivably taking a step back and opening the door for one of the best drivers of the last 20 years. 

I am not sure Alonso is going to step into the top five of the championship, but somewhere between sixth and ninth sounds about right.

7. Haas will have its second-best year in terms of points scored
This is believing Ferrari will figure out its engine, make the necessary upgrades and it with also not let Mick Schumacher's rookie season be a disaster with Haas. 

None of the Ferrari-powered teams were impressive in 2020, but Haas was worst of all. Dysfunction continued into another year of the Romain Grosjean/Kevin Magnussen-era. Both drivers are gone and along with Schumacher the controversial Nikita Mazepin fill out what is the de facto Ferrari junior team. 

It was only 2018 when Haas was fifth in the constructors' championship on 93 points. I do not think the team will get to that level, but what about 48 points? Haas scored 47 points in its second season in 2017. In the team's other three seasons it has failed to break 30 points.

Six regular drivers failed to score more than four points in 2020. All the other regular drivers picked up 32 points. If Schumacher picked up 32 points, he would need Mazepin to pull out at least 16 points. If Schumacher pulls out 40 points, then Mazepin just needs eight. I think 20 points is alone asking a lot for a Haas driver, but I am hopeful. 

Neither Ferrari nor Haas can afford Schumacher to just be another driver, although Russell's lack of points at Williams has not hurt his standing, but Schumacher carries a heavier burden in his last name. He cannot escape the comparisons to his father, even though his father made his Formula One debut nearly 30 years before he is in a much different time. 

Schumacher will get some results. He isn't going to be qualifying seventh on debut and then score points in the next three races, but he could piece together a respectable season, score points in at least eight races and have his best finish be seventh. If he gets two seventh-place finishes, two eighth-place finishes, two ninth-place finishes and two tenth-place finishes, that is 26 points. Mazepin would then have to pick up 22 points, nearly mirroring Schumacher's results. That is asking a lot, but crazier things have happened.

8. Yuki Tsunoda will score the most points for a Japanese driver in a Formula One season
This is the Honda goes all-in for its final year in Formula One and it makes sure it long-awaited Japanese driver has a respectable showing that could allow him to stay in the series far longer than Honda's presence. 

AlphaTauri had a good year in 2020, especially with Pierre Gasly's victory at Monza. The team picked up 107 points and Gasly had two other top five finishes. However, the team only had both drivers score points in two races. One was Monza where Daniil Kvyat was ninth while his teammate stood on the top step of the podium and the other was Russia with Kvyat in eighth and Gasly in ninth. 

Gasly picked up 75 points and ended up in the top ten of the championship. Kvyat ended up on 32 points. A third of Gasly's points did come in his Monza victory, so that skews his score a bit, but Kvyat is a historic underachiever no matter where he drives. Outside of his one full season with Red Bull in 2015, he has never scored more than 37 points in a season. He was benched at the end of the 2017 season when Red Bull was ready to get Gasly and Brendon Hartley in Toro Rosso and then he sat out the entire 2018 season. 

Tsunoda was third in the 2020 Formula Two championship, an impressive season for the Japanese driver. He won three races, two of which were feature races. He won four pole positions behind only Callum Ilott. His seven podium finishes were only behind Schumacher's ten. Tsunoda had an incredible season finale, winning the Sakhir feature race in hopes of keeping his championship hopes alive and then he went from eighth on the grid in the sprint race to second. 

What is the record for most points in a Formula One season for a Japanese driver? 

Sixty with Kamui Kobayashi in 2012. 

How many Toro Rosso/AlphaTauri drivers have scored 60 points in a season? 

One, Gasly in 2020 with 75 points. 

This is a monumental prediction, especially since Gasly's 75 points are a little misleading. He would have been close to 60 points if the safety cars did not fall his way at Monza, but I am not sure he would have gotten there. It is asking a lot for Tsunoda to do it as a rookie, but you have to shoot high and Honda will be doing all it can to make it happen. 

9. Majority of Alfa Romeo's points do not come in Italy
Alfa Romeo scored eight points in 2020 and five of those points came in the team's home country of Italy. 

Kimi Räikkönen was ninth at Mugello and Imola while Antonio Giovinazzi picked up a tenth at Imola. That is five points from those two races. The team's other three points came from Giovinazzi ending up ninth at the Austrian Grand Prix and tenth at the Nürburgring. Six of Alfa Romeo's eight points in 2020 came at tracks that will not be on the 2021 calendar. That is reassuring. 

I think Alfa Romeo will do better than two points in 2021, maybe not much better, but it should get a few more points considering there could be 23 races. There should only be one Italian race next year, which means this prediction seems like a slam dunk, but we saw what happened with AlphaTauri last year. There is a chance Alfa Romeo ends up with 16 points and ten of those are because Räikkönen was sixth and Giovinazzi was eighth at Monza. 

All it takes is another crazy Monza race and Alfa Romeo could end scoring most of its points in Italy despite scoring in four or five races held in other countries. It is improbable, but not impossible.

10. George Russell will be ahead of Nicholas Latifi in the championship for majority of the season
This might come as a surprise, but Russell trailed Latifi in the World Drivers' Championship until Russell picked up three points at the Sakhir Grand Prix driving for Mercedes. 

How could Russell, who had scored zero points with Williams, been behind Latifi, who had scored zero points with Williams? 

Because best finish breaks a tie, even when two drivers have zero points, meaning an 11th-place finish is very valuable. Latifi was 11th in the season opener in Austria, meaning the Canadian held the upper hand on Russell until Russell picked up an 11th-place finish. Then a strange thing happened, Latifi picked up another 11th-place finish at Monza. Now Russell needed to score at least one point or pick up at least three 11th-place finishes to assure he would be ahead of Latifi in the championship. 

Russell got his first 11th-place finish of the season at Mugello, but in the cruelest of fashions, Latifi got his third 11th-place finish at Imola, a race where Russell spun into the barrier while behind the safety car and while in contention for a point. With four races to go, Russell had to be 11th in at least two of them and have Latifi not finish better than 13th to pass him in the championship.

Or Russell could get called up to Mercedes to fill in for Lewis Hamilton when Hamilton had a positive covid-19 test. 

Latifi was the top Williams driver in the championship for the first 15 races. Russell got the last laugh with his three points, but I don't think Latifi will have the same type of 11th-place luck in 2021. If there are 23 races, Russell has to be ahead of Latifi after 12 of those races. If Russell gets a point in the season opener, this prediction could be settled by the Hungarian Grand Prix on August 1, or the Belgian Grand Prix on August 29 if that TBA is not filled in late April. 

Russell tasted the Mercedes and he knows he is ready for more. He knows he can accomplish more. He is not going to let Latifi have the symbolic upper hand for much of this season. 

11. More than seven drivers score a fastest lap
There were seven drivers who scored a fastest lap in 2020. 

Both Mercedes drivers did it, both McLaren drivers did it, Verstappen did it, Ricciardo did it twice and Russell scored in his lone start with Mercedes. 

In 2019, seven drivers did it, both Mercedes, Verstappen and Gasly both did it for Red Bull, both Ferrari drivers did it and Kevin Magnussen even did it for Haas.

We had seven drivers do it again in 2018 (Hamilton, Bottas, Räikkönen, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Magnussen). 

We had eight drivers do it in 2017 (Hamilton, Bottas, Räikkönen, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Pérez and Alonso). 

Looking at the 2021 grid and seeing how fastest lap has become an achievable goal for teams beyond Mercedes and Red Bull, I think eight drivers picking up a fastest lap is not an absurd prediction.

Let's write down Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen now. I think Ricciardo and Norris could each do it again with McLaren. Ferrari had no fastest laps in 2020 because of its woeful power unit, but I think that Leclerc could pull one out. Alonso could absolutely achieve it with Renault. Perhaps Aston Martin could have either or both its driver pick up a fastest lap. it is kind of surprising Pérez didn't get a fastest lap with Racing Point in 2020. Maybe AlphaTauri could surprise us and Gasly picks up a fastest lap. 

There are plenty of drivers out there with the capability of putting down a flyer under the right circumstances in a race. I think at least eight drivers will do it.

12. There will be fewer teammates next to each other in the championship
In 2020, technically four pairs of teammates were next to each other in the championship. 

Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas were first and second. 

Kimi Räikkönen and Antonio Giovinazzi were 16th and 17th. 

Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen were 19th and 20th.

Nicholas Latifi and Jack Aitken (who only ran the Sakhir Grand Prix) were 21st and 22nd. 

One, I don't expect the same kind of midseason driver changes we saw in 2020. I think we all hope there are fewer drivers missing races due to the virus and preferably no drivers miss any races. 

Two, I already think Verstappen is going to finish ahead of Bottas, so that is one pair down. Do Verstappen and Pérez finish ahead of Bottas? I am not so sure about that. Pérez will be competitive and give Verstappen fits, but I think the Dutchman will maintain the number one spot at Red Bull.

Three, I already have Haas scoring at least 48 points, and unless Schumacher and Mazepin each are on 24 points or both drivers score between 20 and 30 points, it is unlikely both drivers will be next to each other. 

Four, I am concerned Alfa Romeo's two drivers will be close to equal again. I am concerned Ferrari's two drivers will be close to equal. I am concerned the two McLaren drivers will be close to each other. 

Five, it happened in four cases in 2019 (Mercedes, Ferrari, Racing Point and Williams).

However, it only happened once in 2018 (Ferrari with Vettel second and Räikkönen third).

I am very aware it could happen next year, especially with some of the changes teams have made. I will say it happens in fewer than four cases in 2021. 

This is our second set of predictions in the books. We looked at NASCAR predictions last week. Tomorrow, we will have our third set of predictions, and those will be on sports car racing.