Monday, October 10, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Hard to Swallow Truth

There was a night race at Indianapolis. A.J. Foyt Racing is rounding out its 2023 lineup. We are already talking about Indianapolis 500 one-offs for a race that is 230 days away. LMDh cars tested at Road Atlanta. Acura had an accident. Tom Blomqvist got a new seat. Rain didn't stop the Bathurst 1000, though it didn't make the weekend easier. Ten drivers entered the weekend with a chance at the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters championship. A Frenchman is joining a French team. A Dutchman is joining an Italian team. Formula One just couldn't have an easy title-decider. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Hard to Swallow Truth
Another World Drivers' Championship has been claimed, this one with four races remaining in the 2022 Formula One season. The trip to the Americas and Abu Dhabi will be mostly administrative affairs, though there are still positions and millions of dollars left to fight for, as well as futures, and any success a driver can take. 

Of course, Max Verstappen and Red Bull couldn't clinch this world championship in a non-convoluted method, though this situation wasn't on the team. The regulations change that was meant to clear up awarding points over shortened races after the 2021 Belgian Grand Prix fiasco caused this confusion, as only 28 of 53 laps, just over 52% of the scheduled distance was completed, but the regulation change made in response to last year's Belgium race now says fractional points totals will only be awarded if a race ends under red flag conditions. If a race finishes on the track, green or yellow, behind the safety car or not, regardless of distance completed, full points will be awarded. 

With full points awarded for 52% of the work, Verstappen claiming victory and Charles Leclerc demoted to third after cutting the final chicane on the final lap while trying to hold off Sergio Pérez, Verstappen is the world championship.

The climate in the room has been distracting from what has been happening around us, and the events in Japan are not helping. This is one of the most historic seasons in Formula One history. It is just coming at the hands of the most unsavory driver and team combination the series may have ever seen. 

Verstappen and Red Bull have become a polarizing duo in Formula One. Orange floods the grandstands at many venues in support of the Dutch-Austrian pairing, but the behavior of driver and team, combined with its contentious 2021 season that saw the championship claimed after questionable officiating at the detriment of Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes, has soured many. 

The controversies aren't going anywhere anytime soon, especially as we await reports from the FIA about cost cap violations from certain manufactures, but until the final verdict is made, we are in the midsts of one of the greatest seasons in Formula One history, whether we like who is accomplishing it or not. 

Verstappen has won 12 races, two short of holding the all-time record for most victories on his own. This victory in Japan puts Verstappen ahead of Nigel Mansell  and level with Fernando Alonso for sixth all-time on 32. If Verstappen wins out, it will be the second-best winning percentage in a Formula One season, behind only Alberto Ascari's 1952 season when the Italian won six of eight races, 75%. Verstappen is the 13th driver to win consecutive world championships. He is also only 25 years old with a future of 25-race seasons in front of him for the next ten to 15 years. 

The record book is about to be littered with the "Verstappen" name at the top of all the important categories, again, whether we like it or not. 

Verstappen isn't going anywhere. Even if the cost cap was violated and Red Bull could receive harsh sanctions, it hasn't been entirely the car winning races this season. Ferrari has won 11 pole positions in 2022. There were plenty of chances for Ferrari to take points away from Red Bull when in the dominant position, and it faltered. Even in Japan, as long as Charles Leclerc makes it through the final chicane cleanly, we are heading to the United States with Verstappen just needing one point from the final four races to clinch the championship. The title would effectively be Verstappen's but Ferrari could have delayed the party another few weeks. Instead, Leclerc blows the corner, clearly gained an advantage, lost his second-place finish and provided another gift to Verstappen after Verstappen had capitalized on every other mistake Leclerc made this season. 

The finish of the 2021 season was an unfortunate circumstance of poor officiating, but to boil that championship down to one race, one lap, disregards what happened over that entire season. Verstappen still won ten races last season. He stood on a record 18 podiums. Abu Dhabi was the final chapter of the season, but every race decided the outcome. For everything Verstappen did, there was everything Hamilton did not do. 

The final lap of the season doesn't play out that way if Hamilton doesn't blow the restart at Azerbaijan and go from second to 15th, coughing up 18 points. If Hamilton and Verstappen do not get together at Monza, those are a few more points for each driver, perhaps more for Hamilton than Verstappen. If Mercedes calls Hamilton in for slick tires prior to the restart in Hungary, perhaps he wins the race instead of finishing second to Esteban Ocon after negotiating traffic and being held behind the likes of Fernando Alonso.

There will always be the Belgian Grand Prix that Verstappen won with no green flag laps completed, but let's not forget Verstappen's drive late in the Russian Grand Prix, in changing conditions that saw what should have been a sixth or seventh-place result turn into a second. Verstappen competed an incredible move around both Mercedes at the start of the Mexican Grand Prix that saw the Dutchman go from third to first and he never looked back, practically winning the race untouched. 

Nothing was fixed. Nothing is invalid. Inconsistent? Unfair? Questionable? Absolutely. That wasn't the first championship decided after inconsistent, unfair and questionable decisions. It will not be the last.

This is arguable the most fractured point in Formula One history among the audience. There have always been passionate fan followings, but the current tribalism has spectators more combative than ever before. We are seeing less enjoyment over the competition and less appreciation for those competing. Everyone is looking for a reason to discredit another driver's accomplishments. This kind of behavior will not last long, not at the current level. Eventually, this much negativity will lead many to leave, likely the wrong people will stay, and this 2020s Formula One swoon will have a crash landing. 

If you are going to be a Formula One fan, you must look at the entire picture and not be obsessed with a singular moment. Also, if you are going to be a Formula One fan, you should get used to whatever team and driver that consistently ends up on top pushing the legality of the rulebook. Every era has a champion living in the grey area, from the active suspension Williams to Brabham's hydropneumatic suspension and water-cooled brake to Ferrari's movable floor to the double-diffusered Brawn. In the case of Red Bull, it might not be anything technical on the car but how much cash used to develop what is on track. Every team is pushing legality. Most get away with it. This isn't a purity test. 

As is the case in the contemporary world of Formula One, the drama will play out off the track and likely deep into the offseason. Any judgement on this season will leave one faction unsatisfied and another faction justified. But the results we are seeing on track, the man on the top step of the podium, will likely continue for many years to come, whether you like it or not. 

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

Sheldon van der Linde clinched the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters championship with finishes of second and third at Hockenheim.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

Shane Van Gisbergen and Garth Tander won the 65th Bathurst 1000, Van Gisbergen's 19th victory of the season. This was Van Gisbergen's second Bathurst victory and Tander's fifth, making Tander the seventh driver with at least five Bathurst victories.

Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Cup race from Charlotte, his second victory of the season. A.J. Allmendinger won the Grand National Series race, his second consecutive victory and his fourth of the season.

The #77 Mercedes-AMG Team Craft-Bamboo Racing Mercedes-AMG of Daniel Morad, Daniel Juncadella and Raffaele Marciello won the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

George Kurtz swept the GT America races from Indianapolis. The #8 Flying Lizard Motorsports Aston Martin of Elias Sabo and Andy Lee and the #18 RS1 Porsche of Stevan McAleer and Eric Filgueiras split the GT4 America races.

Lucas Auer and Marco Wittmann split the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from Hockenheim. 

Toprak Razgatlioglu (race one and SuperPole race) and Álvaro Bautista (race two) split the World Superbike races from Portimão. Stefano Manzi and Dominique Aegerter split World Supersport races.

Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP returns to Phillip Island.
NASCAR is in Las Vegas.
Portimão hosts the European Le Mans Series finale.


Thursday, October 6, 2022

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Andretti Autosport's 2022 Season

The second half of the IndyCar Wrap-Ups begin with a team we are used to being one of the last posted, but after the way results fell, Andretti Autosport gets reviewed a little earlier this offseason. Despite adding one of the most exciting drivers from the 2021 season, Andretti Autosport regressed and arguably IndyCar's "Big Three" has shrunk to the "Big Two,” Andretti Autosport excluded. 

Alexander Rossi
With his contract on everyone's mind, Rossi was looking for a turnaround in the 2022 season. After two full seasons without a victory, Rossi was looking to reestablish himself as one the top drivers in the series with Andretti Autosport. The spark didn't quite happen and it was another sluggish start. There was a rise in form but the future was already decided. There was a high point, but time had run its course and 2022 would mark the end to this chapter. 

What objectively was his best race?
Rossi got his first victory in over three years when he crossed the line first in the July Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race. Rossi took advantage of teammate Colton Herta retiring from the race due to a gearbox failure after Herta ran over the curbs. Rossi led the final 44 laps and took victory in relative comfort.

What subjectively was his best race?
It was his second place finish in the Belle Isle race. Rossi started 11th but committed to a three-stop strategy early. He was one of the fastest cars on the track, but Will Power had equal pace on a two-stop strategy. Rossi was able to run harder in the final stint of the race and he chased down Power, but Rossi was only able to get within a second of Power at the time of the checkered flag.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rossi had electrical issues 11 laps into the Texas race and we never got to see what he could do in this race. This classified Rossi in 27th. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Every Andretti Autosport driver will have the same answer. It is Mid-Ohio. Rossi and teammate Romain Grosjean got together while running in the top ten. Andretti Autosport was set to have three cars in the top ten in. Then it had none. It was a massive failure for the team. 

Toronto deserves a mention because Rossi was competing for a podium finish before running side-by-side with Felix Rosenqvist and Rosenqvist's car step out into Rossi's car, knocking Rossi into the turn four wall. Rossi was also lost for the entire Iowa weekend.

Alexander Rossi's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 9th (381 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 70
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 10.588
Average Finish: 12.059

Colton Herta
The most-hyped driver in IndyCar had much attention on him entering the 2022 season. With Formula One teams expressing interest and even Andretti Autosport looking to join the Formula One grid, Herta had to get results this year as Super License points were at a premium. The goal was third or better in the championship. The speed was there, but it didn't always translate into results and consistency was difficult to find. Based on the expectations set, this was a disappointing season. 

What objectively was his best race?
Herta drove an incredible race in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, switching to the slick tires the earliest and performing a master-class in car control on a drying track. This included an incredible save in turns eight and nine that led to Herta taking the lead and never really looking back. 

The only thing that was going to stop Herta on that day was an untimely caution. He avoided all the trouble while nearly everyone else in the field had contact, a spun or an off-track excursion. It was a phenomenal drive from Herta.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to go against the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but the July IMS road course race saw Herta go from ninth to first in eight laps with no crazy weather or strategy. There wasn't a massive accident that took out six cars in front of Herta. He was making passes on each lap in the opening stint and we looked set for another Herta victory. 

He led 17 of the first 42 laps before clipping the curbs broke his gearbox and ended his race just prior to the halfway point. It was crushing to see Herta end up in 24th when he likely would have won this race. 

Nashville deserves a mention because Herta got into the barrier after contact with Dalton Kellett after starting 23rd, and he recovered mostly as the rest of the field took itself out for a fifth-place finish.

What objectively was his worst race?
Thirtieth in the Indianapolis 500 after Herta had an accident in Carb Day that saw the car somersault between turns one and two. The backup car was not even close to adequate for Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Herta was just treading water the entire race and off the lead lap early. He ended up running 129 laps before retiring due to a throttle issue.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Mid-Ohio because Herta was in the running for a podium finish. He could have pushed Scott McLaughlin for the victory, but Herta's team did not call him to the pit lane when Tatiana Calderón stopped on course. The rest of the lead lap cars did. Herta didn't. The team had about ten laps until he had to stop. He didn't come in under caution hoping to open a gap. It was working and then Grosjean and Rossi got together in the keyhole to bring out a caution. Now Herta hd to pit under caution. He lost positions. Grosjean then spun Herta and Herta finished 15th. 

Long Beach should be mentioned because Herta lost time through the first pit cycle, dropped to third, and then he overdrove the car and got into the barrier in turn nine on corner exit, killing what would have been at worst a third-place finish. 

Colton Herta's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 10th (381 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 119
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 10.647
Average Finish: 11.941

Romain Grosjean
One of the most thrilling drivers of the 2021 season, Grosjean moved from Dale Coyne Racing to Andretti Autosport as he became a full-time driver in IndyCar. With Grosjean added, Andretti Autosport constructed a promising trio that could contest with any other driver combinations on paper. Unfortunately, the races aren't run on paper. There were good days, but they never matched what we saw the year before from the Frenchman.

What objectively was his best race?
It was the runner-up result at Long Beach where Grosjean was pushing Josef Newgarden until the checkered flag. The late cautions gave Grosjean multiple attempts to make up positions. He did. He gave Newgarden a scare but could only finish second.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is probably Long Beach, but Grosjean looked really good at Road America after not making it out of the second round of qualifying by a hair. That was the last race this season Grosjean looked capable of winning a race until Laguna Seca, where Grosjean had good speed but ended up falling to seventh.

What objectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500, where he spun after 105 laps in turn two and ended up classified in 31st. Grosjean had been one of Andretti Autosport's best drivers for the entire month of May, but the race pace didn't transfer over from qualifying. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Mid-Ohio because he and Rossi got together and then spun Herta when Herta had a chance to at least recover and make up some positions. The worst part of Grosjean's season is he was stagnant to last year. He led three laps all season. He had one podium finish. There were plenty of bad stretches for Grosjean where you looked up and wondered how he was running 14th. He was further from a victory this year with Andretti Autosport than he was with Dale Coyne Racing last year.

Romain Grosjean's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 13th (328 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 3
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 10.471
Average Finish: 13.076

Devlin DeFrancesco
A new driver to the IndyCar grid, DeFrancesco moved up from Indy Lights after rather pedestrian results. No victories and only two podium finishes, DeFrancesco did not scream IndyCar talent, but he was on the grid and with one of the best teams. The results were at the level expected, but there was some improvement over the course of the season. 

What objectively was his best race?
A 12th-place finish at Gateway.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Gateway. DeFrancesco was running with the rest of the Andretti drivers for most of this race. He looked better than Alexander Rossi for part of it. Iowa was the same. DeFrancesco was better than Rossi in both races, but only got the better finish in one of them. 

What objectively was his worst race?
DeFrancesco was 25th at Long Beach after he hit the turn nine barrier after making a pit stop.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Mid-Ohio is DeFrancesco's subjectively worst race because he and Rossi got together when neither driver should have been that aggressive. DeFrancesco also had his hand in three accident at Texas, ending the race of Takuma Sato and Kyle Kirkwood and he had a boneheaded move take out himself, Graham Rahal and Hélio Castroneves. Texas was worse than Mid-Ohio for DeFrancesco but DeFrancesco could have at least the bright spot for Andretti Autosport at Mid-Ohio and even he stumbled in that race.

Devlin DeFrancesco's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 23rd (206 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 19.059
Average Finish: 18.412

An Early Look Ahead
This is a team with an identity crisis. 

Its lead driver is a 22-year-old. That should never be the case unless it is a single-car team. Even worse is everyone is trying to kick Herta out of the team and send him to Formula One. Then where is Andretti Autosport going? 

It is Herta, who everyone is preparing to leave IndyCar, Grosjean, who had a disappointing season in 2022 and never looked like the strongest Andretti driver at any point this season, Kyle Kirkwood, who is moving over from A.J. Foyt Racing but who might be scarred and for the most of 2022 couldn't keep the car on the track and DeFrancesco, who made improvements but is still fighting to break the top fifteen at best. 

Your 2023 Andretti Autosport lineup, ladies and gentlemen. 

Did you know Herta was third in the 2020 IndyCar championship standings? Yeah, surprising he was that good two years ago. 

After the last few seasons it is hard to imagine Andretti getting its house in order and contending for a championship and this was once one of the "Big Three," one of the three teams you always expect to have at least one championship contender. Herta has the talent but the pieces around him just don't add up to this being a driver anyone should worry about. It hasn't helped that Herta is prone to making mistakes and taking himself out of race. Add poor strategy and he is getting screwed in two fashions. 

Andretti Autosport has diminished to a team that can click on one or two days but cannot put together a full season. They are barely any better than Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing at the moment. The biggest issue for the team is it can show the pace in practice and qualifying but then have the race fall apart. Until it overcomes that it will have to settle for one or two victories a year and about eight other results wondering where it went wrong. 

The toughest thing projecting this team's future is I don't see the direction it is heading. It once was a team that at least had Tony Kanaan or Ryan Hunter-Reay and it looked to be set for a future with Alexander Rossi and Colton Herta. Now Rossi is gone and with Herta in limbo I am not sure what five years out looks like for this team. If Grosjean doesn't improve I could see the pressure being on him, and he could decide to walk. Kirkwood has to look halfway competent in 2023 to have any hope he could be the future and DeFrancesco isn't the caliber driver to build around. 

My fear is Andretti Autosport has become spread too thin with its interest in Formula One combined with the Formula E program and let's not forget the LMP3 program in IMSA with interest of getting involved in LMDh. As Andretti Autosport spreads its tentacles we see the IndyCar program getting worse. How low do the results have to be before team management takes serious notice?

When Grosjean joined the team, everyone agreed it was a step up from Dale Coyne Racing, but after seeing the last two seasons, will other drivers consider such a move as upward? That is a crazy question to be asking as Andretti Autosport has five Indianapolis 500 victories and though it has been over a decade since its most recent championship, it is still one of only three teams to win the championship in the last 20 seasons. 

There has to be a significant improve for Andretti Autosport in 2023. This group cannot fall into the vast middle that exists in IndyCar. It was long held as one of the best groups in the series. Next year it must get back on track to rejoin that top tier.



Tuesday, October 4, 2022

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2022 Season

Rounding out the first half of the 2022 IndyCar Wrap-Ups is Ed Carpenter Racing. After a bipolar 2021 season that saw the team contesting at the front for most of the first half before both cars were dragging at the bottom for the second half, ECR was looking for better balance in its results. The drivers remained the same but the program did expand in a minor way. Things improved and the team replicated its best form on multiple occasions this season, but there is more to be done as there were a few rough patches. 

Rinus VeeKay
After achieving early success in the 2021 season, VeeKay's results fell off in the second half of that season and the hope was the 2022 season would see more of his best. The raw talent came out in a number of good performances, but there were still a few down points. The lows might not have been as low as the year prior, but there is certainly room for improvement.

What objectively was his best race?
VeeKay won pole position at Barber Motorsports Park and he led 57 laps before losing the lead in the final round of pit stops. Patricio O'Ward had better a better in-lap, pit stop and out-lap compared to VeeKay and it got O'Ward the lead while Palou took second, but VeeKay held on for third. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Barber was the one race VeeKay looked like a threat for victory. Mid-Ohio deserves a mention because he was moving forward in that race and wound up fourth. He also got sixth at St. Petersburg with a slightly alternate strategy that nearly bit him stretching the alternate tire on the opening stint.

What objectively was his worst race?
It doesn't get lower than 33rd in the Indianapolis 500. For VeeKay, he spun in turn two while running in the top ten and looking like he was going to be in the mix for the entire race from third on the grid.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is hard to top the Indianapolis 500 because it was a deflating result considering where he started. There are a few others results that look bad. He had a rough day in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis where he didn't show great pace and he did spin. In the second Iowa race, VeeKay was lined up for a promising result before a pit lane entry infraction cost him and put him two laps down. 

Gateway probably takes the cake though because Ed Carpenter Racing was slow there. VeeKay had nothing and it was almost merciful the car broke down on him after 53 laps because he wasn't going to do much better than his 23rd starting position. 

Rinus VeeKay's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 12th (331 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 94
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 11.235
Average Finish: 14.059

Conor Daly
After a dismal 2021 season, Daly hoped to run closer to his younger and less experienced teammate in 2022. Though there were good days for Daly and he was more of a contributor to Ed Carpenter Racing's success, he still came in second among the two drivers. The gap remained noticeable at times with Daly more likely than not at the rear.

What objectively was his best race?
A fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis after Daly nearly blew the race going on a massive fuel save while no one in the race did. Daly went from the top five to outside the top fifteen because everyone else was pushing on slicks as Daly saved fuel. However, the race changing back to wet conditions combined with the cautions allowed Daly to recover and pull out a top five result.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but everyone will remember Daly's sixth in the Indianapolis 500. Twice Daly had the caution come out in an advantageous position for him in the pit cycle. The cautions put him in the top five when he might not have ever cracked the top ten in the race and he spent much of the race in the top five before finishing sixth.

What objectively was his worst race?
That would be 25th at Portland after a small fire re-fueling cost him time on his first stop, but it also burned out his clutch and ended his race after only 67 of 110 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Iowa races. Daly started third in both race of the doubleheader. In race one, he fell like a rock and finished 19th. In race two, he fell like a rock and finished 16th. At the start of the Iowa weekend, it felt like it would not have been surprising if Daly won one of the races. When it was over, we had two races where Daly was a factor in neither and it was a wasted chance for some results. All the one-lap speed in the world wasn't going to cover for the tire degradation that ECR wasn't on top of. 

Conor Daly's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 17th (267 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 7
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 15.412
Average Finish: 16.529

Ed Carpenter
Unlike previous seasons, Ed Carpenter's oval-only program was not in the #20 Chevrolet which he has become known for driving over the last 15 years or so. Instead, Carpenter gave the keys to the #20 entirely to Daly while Carpenter himself moved into the #33 Chevrolet for the five oval races. It was a new ride, but the results looked similar to past seasons for the owner-driver.

What objectively was his best race?
It was Carpenter's first race of the season where he finished 13th at Texas from 21st on the grid and led four laps during a pit cycle.

What subjectively was his best race?
Uh... Texas? Texas wasn't even that good of a race for Carpenter. He made up eight positions from where he started, but all of those were basically from other cars retiring. At no point did Carpenter make any flashy moves in that race.

What objectively was his worst race?
It would be 25th in the first Iowa race when he had an accident. It was a race where Carpenter never looked competitive to begin with.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500 wasn't going to be a spectacular finish for Carpenter when the red flag came out. He was tenth when the race was stopped, but unfortunately, Carpenter's car did not restart when the red flag was lifted. Once the car was fired, it took longer than allowed for him to retain his running position and instead of restarting tenth, he restarted last on the lead lap and in two laps he clawed to 19th. 

Ed Carpenter's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 27th (75 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 18.4
Average Finish: 19.2

An Early Look Ahead
More of the same for Ed Carpenter Racing, which isn't a bad thing, but it makes you wonder what the future looks like. 

VeeKay agreed to a contract extension earlier this year. Daly is secure for at least 2023, but his long-term status is questionable. VeeKay still looks like the driver that ECR can build around, but for every race VeeKay excites you there are two races where he is average. That could partially be on the team because more times than not it is VeeKay leading the way while Daly is running 15th. It has been rare over the last three seasons where Daly is leading by a comfortable margin. It has normally been VeeKay ahead comfortably or the two cars close together with VeeKay still ahead majority of the time in those scenarios as well. 

As for VeeKay's future, it feels more likely he will be a long-term ECR driver. For a driver who won early in his sophomore season, some have seen him poised for a move to a larger team. It doesn't seem like that is going to happen. It is pretty crowded and VeeKay hasn't really stood out. He won a race, but he has also finished outside the top fifteen in 21 of 46 career starts, 45.65%. It is only getting more crowded with Callum Ilott, David Malukas and Christian Lundgaard on the grid. It could be beneficial if VeeKay and ECR commit to each other. 

ECR represents what IndyCar is at the basic level. All the teams have a shot at winning on their given weekend. ECR can have it all click at one track and pull out a victory. It happened in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in 2021 and it nearly happened at Barber in 2022. A team could have three or four race weekends that are like that. It is a great feeling, but beyond those three or four or possibly even six or seven race weekends, it just doesn't have enough to be a championship contender. That is great for the series in the sense on any weekend someone can surprise but it is bad that really about 75% of the grid you know isn't going to be fighting for a championship. 

Teams can come close and ECR was one of those teams with Josef Newgarden. Since Newgarden, it has fallen into the pack with the rest. For this team to be more than everyone's darling a few races a year, it needs to make a big stride and seeing its pace at certain places it almost feels possible, but the last few seasons show it hasn't made much ground from where it has been. 

Carpenter moving to his own entry and ECR having two full-time drivers is a step for the team. It knows two dedicated drivers working together every weekend will bring more success than the rotation we saw from 2014 through 2021. Giving VeeKay and Daly another year together is good for the program, but 2023 is where we will fine where the limit is. Daly has been with ECR since 2020, two years as the road/street course driver and 2023 will be his second as a full-time driver. After what happens next year, wherever the chips fall are where they fall. If Daly is again outside the top fifteen and VeeKay is ahead of him, somewhere between ninth and 14th, I think it is clear the direction the team needs to go to grow. 

Next season will be a pivotal point for the ECR organization. Difficult decisions will be made. 


Monday, October 3, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Why Compromise When You Can Compete?

Meyer Shank Racing won the IMSA Daytona Prototype international championship after the #60 Acura of Tom Blomqvist, Oliver Jarvis and Hélio Castroneves won Petit Le Mans, and the team took the Endurance Cup championship too. Wayne Taylor Racing suffered a harsh finish to its season. Marcus Ericsson and Felix Rosenqvist raced at home. Conor Daly will race a Cup car. NASCAR drivers are upset. World Rally has a new youngest world champion. The weather shook up Buriram and one championship has half points in play. Singapore had some weather but everyone got full points, also because the regulations no longer allow half points. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

Why Compromise When You Can Compete?
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series schedule is now out. It was as expected, same races as 2022 and largely on the same weekends with a few shifts, plus a month between the opening race of the season at St. Petersburg and the second race at Texas.

There is a good flow to the season after that fractured start. There are no other consecutive off weekends after Texas, with four back-to-backs and the season ending with three race weekends on the spin. 

Not only do we have the race dates, but the networks for the American broadcasts. Thirteen of 17 races will be on network NBC with three races on USA (Road America, Mid-Ohio and the August Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race) and one race streamed exclusively on Peacock (Toronto). 

Of course, all we are waiting on is the official times for these races, but that will another cause of derision. 

In recent years, as IndyCar and NASCAR have worked closer together, we have seen the benefit of a rising tide lifting all boats. Before the pandemic, IndyCar races would lead into NASCAR races and see a boost in rating, same with the occasional time it followed a NASCAR race. During the pandemic, IndyCar and NASCAR shared a race weekend on the IMS road course and it has been a yearly thing ever since. 

There has been more harmony between the two series than ever before, and yet, collaboration remains infrequent, especially in terms of perhaps the most important thing the two sides share, television scheduling. 

The 2022 season was the first season of IndyCar's new television deal with NBC and it saw an expansion of races on network television with 14 races on free-to-air NBC, a massive swing from a series that was largely present on cable television. 

But one good thing was outweighed with another. IndyCar might have been on NBC more, but more races went head-to-head with NASCAR Cup races. 

In 2019, there were only four occasions of an IndyCar race and a NASCAR Cup race occurring simultaneously. Those four IndyCar races were Austin, Barber, the second Belle Isle race and Mid-Ohio. Only Mid-Ohio took place during NBC's portion of the NASCAR season, but only two of those races started around the same time, Belle Isle and Mid-Ohio. The other two races saw staggered starts but much of the races happening at the same time.

In 2022, there were five times the two series ran concurrently, four of which were during the NBC portion of the NASCAR season, and all five of those races effectively started at the same time. Those five IndyCar races were Belle Isle, Toronto, the second Iowa race, Nashville and Laguna Seca.

The numbers are basically the same, but this feels different, and not long ago, this would look much different. The biggest cause for this shift is the decline of Saturday night races for both series. There were weekends where the NASCAR Cup Series ran Saturday night and IndyCar would have Sunday open. There were IndyCar races that happen Saturday night. IndyCar had one Saturday night race in 2022, and NASCAR had only three scheduled for its entire season, one of which happened after the IndyCar season ended. 

Saturday night does not draw the same number of viewers as Sunday afternoon, and as both series attempt to become more attractive for sponsors, these series must maximize its viewership. The answer is Sunday afternoon. 

The problem is there is only so much of Sunday afternoon for everyone. That 3:00 p.m. Eastern window is the most valuable, not just for motorsports but for nearly all sports. With IndyCar being heavily on NBC and NASCAR mostly on USA in the second half of the year, those are two open slots for each series to take. They are looking out for themselves, and rightfully so. 

IndyCar is the bigger loser of the two. It is third in the pecking order of American motorsports. It doesn't matter how good the IndyCar race is, how dramatic the championship picture is, who the drivers are and how likely they are, if IndyCar is on the same time as NASCAR, more people will watch NASCAR, even those who like watching both. IndyCar could work to flip the script and become the draw, but that will likely take years and a lot of money for what will likely be a fruitless endeavor. The best option is to strategically schedule its races, but strategy can mean losing out.

NASCAR has the rule of the roost, and if it is planting itself at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, it is going to stay at 3:00 p.m. Eastern and not move for anyone. There is also the conflict of networks. From February until the middle of June, NASCAR is on Fox, and Fox isn't going to budge for the sake of IndyCar on NBC. As much as these series work together, they will not look out for each other. 

There will likely be just as many, if not more direct conflicts in 2023. 

St. Petersburg should get in before the NASCAR race begins in Las Vegas. The end may overlap with the start, but that isn't too bad. But Texas and Richmond are the same day, and after Texas' dismal crowd for a 12:30 p.m. Eastern start in 2022, I bet that race will be later, but Richmond will likely remain a 3:00 p.m. ET start. Even if Texas moves to 2:00 p.m. Eastern, 1:00 p.m. local start, the races overlap too much. 

Long Beach will start after Martinsville in all likelihood, but the finishes will likely overlap and starting an hour or two later will only hurt IndyCar as viewers will be engaged with the NASCAR race and not leave. Barber and Dover could happen simultaneously or Barber could start early enough that it is over just before Dover begins or during the opening laps from Dover. 

The month of May is a break for IndyCar with the Grand Prix of Indianapolis remaining on Saturday afternoon while the Indianapolis 500 is hours before the Coca-Cola 600, but Detroit will likely be the same time as the NASCAR race from Gateway. 

There is some hope. IndyCar will run at Road America on NASCAR's lone off-week during the season and after Road America, NASCAR will be on NBC. Mid-Ohio is scheduled to be on USA, and perhaps that could be a lead-in broadcast to the NASCAR race on the streets of Chicago, but there are a few other conflicts that are bound to happen. 

Toronto will happen at the same time as Loudon. The second Iowa race will likely happen at the same time as Pocono while the first Iowa race will likely happen simultaneously as the NASCAR Xfinity race. Nashville and Michigan will likely be the same time again. 

The final four IndyCar races get a break. The combination weekend on the IMS road course is a break for both. Gateway is scheduled for the day after the NASCAR Cup race from Daytona on Saturday night and Portland will happen before the Southern 500 from Darlington starts on a Sunday night. The last concern is the Laguna Seca season finale, but it is set up for that race to start at the same time as the Kansas Cup race. 

It is safe to say there will be anywhere from six to eight times IndyCar races and NASCAR Cup Series races will largely happen at the same time and force viewers to choose one over the other. If these series are working together, that is way too many. 

These are separate series with separate sanctioning bodies, and there will be some conflicts. It is inevitable as the series run in the same regions at the same time of the year and sometimes it will just happen. But in IndyCar's case, to have a third to half of its schedule in direct conflict is bad for series exposure. Unless IndyCar is going to shift to a lot of noon Eastern start times, we are going to hear the same disgruntled comments we heard this summer repeated in 2023. 

Compromise is an option, especially in the shared NBC portion of the season. An IndyCar lead-in will happen 99 times out of 100, but if both series want the 3:00 p.m. window, they will have to share it and compromise from time to time. Compromise isn't happening in the first half of the year when NASCAR is on Fox, but in the second half, there are a few race weekends where NASCAR could run earlier. 

Pocono doesn't have lights. It could start at 1:00 p.m. Eastern to make the most of the afternoon and the second Iowa IndyCar race could start at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Nashville had an evening start in 2021 and that was something different that could work. In 2022, Nashville ended up being basically an evening race after a significant rain delay. The NASCAR Michigan race could begin at 2:00 p.m. Eastern with IndyCar from Nashville starting at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. 

Anytime the IndyCar and NASCAR combination weekend is mentioned we hear about how the series are not competition for one another and they must work together for the better of motorsports. But then occur the other 51 weekends in the year and the two series compete way more than they compromise. If both sides believe they must work for one another for the greater good of American motorsports then we must see changes in the calendar and when races are scheduled. 

Until we see most of those conflicts addressed, and frankly eliminated, we can stop singing Kumbaya. 

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Meyer Shank Racing, but did you know...

John Farano clinched the IMSA LMP2 championship with his victory in the #8 Tower Motorsport by Starworks Oreca-Gibson with Louis Delétraz and Rui Andrade. 

The #54 CORE Autosport Ligier-Nissan of Colin Braun and Jon Bennett clinched the IMSA LMP3 championship with a fifth-place finish at Petit Le Mans.

The #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche of Matt Campbell and Mathieu Jaminet clinched the IMSA GT Daytona Pro championship by starting Petit Le Mans. 

Roman De Angelis clinched the IMSA GT Daytona championship with a seventh-place finish in the #27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin with Maxime Martin and Ian James. 

The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Ben Keating, Scott Huffaker and Mikkel Jensen clinched the IMSA LMP2 Endurance Cup.

The #74 Riley Motorsports Ligier-Nissan of Gar Robinson, Felipe Fraga and Kay van Berlo clinched the IMSA LMP3 Endurance Cup.

The #62 Risi Competizione of Davide Rigon and Daniel Serra clinched IMSA GTD Pro Endurance Cup

The #70 inception Racing McLaren of Brendan Iribe and Jordan Pepper clinched IMSA GTD Endurance Cup.

The #88 AMG - Team AKKodis ASP Mercedes-AMG of Jules Gounon, Daniel Juncadella and Raffael Marciello clinched the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup with a fifth-place finish in Barcelona. 

Kalle Rovanperä clinched the World Rally Drivers' Championship with his victory in Rally New Zealand, his sixth victory of the season.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Meyer Shank Racing, but did you know...

The #36 Andretti Autosport Ligier-Nissan of Gabby Chaves, Jarett Andretti and Josh Burdon won in LMP3 at Petit Le Mans. The #14 Vasser Sullivan Lexus of Jack Hawksworth, Ben Barnicoat and Kyle Kirkwood won in GTD Pro after the #62 Risi Competizione was disqualified for drive time violation. The #66 Gradient Racing Acura of Mario Farnbacher, Till Bechtolsheimer and Kyffin Simpson won in GTD.

Sergio Pérez won the Singapore Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.

Miguel Oliviera won MotoGP's Thailand Grand Prix, his second victory of the season. Tony Arbolino won a rain-shortened Moto2 race, his second victory of the season. Dennis Foggia won the Moto3 race, his fourth victory of the season.

Chase Elliott won the NASCAR Cup Series race from Talladega, his fifth victory of the season. A.J. Allmendinger won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season. Matt DiBenedetto won the Truck race, his first career victory.

The #54 Dinamic Motorsport Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Matteo Carroll and Alesia Picariello won the 3 Hours of Barcelona. 

The #17 Astemo Real Racing Honda of Nobuharu Matsuahita and Koufax Tsukakoshi won the Super GT race from Autopolis. The #52 Saitama Toyopet GreenBrave Toyota of Kohta Kawaai and Hiroki Yoshida won in GT300.

Coming Up This Weekend
The 65th Bathurst 1000.
Formula One is back at Suzuka.
NASCAR ends its second round of the playoffs at Charlotte's infield road course.
The Indianapolis 8 Hours closes out the GT World Challenge America season and it is the penultimate round of the Intercontinental GT Challenge season. 
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters ends its season at Hockenheim. 
World Superbike is at Portimão.


Thursday, September 29, 2022

Best of the Month: September 2022

The sun shines differently in September. It shines for less, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. The sun has already set on a few championships and it is setting on plenty of other series as well. But there is time left for many. They will get their day in due time. 

At this moment, we will reflect on what has happened before looking ahead to another sunset.

IndyCar Tidbits
It is autumn. IndyCar is over and will not be back again until March, a few weeks before spring. We know Will Power won his second championship and became the all-time leader in pole positions, Scott Dixon surpassed Mario Andretti in victories, Marcus Ericsson won the Indianapolis 500, Christian Lundgaard was Rookie of the Year and Colton Herta didn't get a Super License. 

We know that stuff. But what about the information you need to dig and dust for? The stuff you need to actually look for? The kind of stuff that isn't going to be mentioned on a race broadcast but is still fascinating nonetheless? What about that stuff? With the season behind us, it is time to look at the finer details from the 2022 IndyCar season.

The Champions' Numbers
Will Power's second championship came eight years after his first title. How many other drivers had eight years between championships? 

Mario Andretti has the longest span between championships, 15 years between his third title in 1969 and his fourth in 1984. Al Unser went 13 years between his first and second in 1970 and 1983. A.J. Foyt had eight seasons between his fifth title in 1967 and his sixth in 1975. That is rare company for Power to join.

It is a little more stunning when you take into consideration the only other times drivers went at least five seasons between championships are Tony Bettenhausen's seven-season slump from 1951 to 1958, Bobby Unser's six-season slump from 1968 to 1974 and Bobby Rahal going five seasons between titles in 1987 and 1992. 

That is only seven occasions in IndyCar history where a driver went five seasons between titles. That should make Simon Pagenaud a little nervous, as Pagenaud is now six seasons going on seven seasons from his lone title in 2016. 

As for Power's specifics, his one victory was the fewest for a champion since Tony Stewart in the 1996-97 Indy Racing League season. Power is the first champion with fewer than two victories since Gil de Ferran in the 2001 CART season.

But it is important to compare those seasons. Stewart won once in a ten-race season. De Ferran won twice in a 20-race season. Stewart and de Ferran each won 10% of the races, not a great total, but still 10%. Power won one in 17 races, a winning percentage of 5.88%. 

We all know the 1996 Indy Racing League season and its co-champions in Buzz Calkins and Scott Sharp, as the IRL's inaugural season was only three races consisting of Walt Disney World Speedway, Phoenix and the Indianapolis 500. Calkins won at Orlando, Sharp didn't win at all, but the IRL didn't have a tiebreaker, so both drivers were champions. 

Power's winning percentage was the lowest for a champion since Sharp's 0% in 1996, but removing that season for a moment, Power was the first champion with a winning percentage below 10% since Al Unser's 7.142%. Unser also won the 1983 championship with a winning percentage of 7.692%. Unser's two championships, Sharp's co-championship and Power's season are the only times since the formation of CART in 1979 that a champion won less than 10% of the races. 

However, Power was on the podium in 52.94% of the races, the highest podium percentage for a champion since Scott Dixon had nine podium finishes in 17 races over the 2018 season. No champion has finished on the podium in over 60% of the races since Dixon's 70.58% in the 2008 season, the first season after reunification. 

The Locals
Eight American drivers were regulars this IndyCar season with a total of 13 Americans starting a race this season. 

American drivers accounted for seven victories, five for Josef Newgarden with Colton Herta and Alexander Rossi splitting the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course races. This is the fourth time in six seasons American drivers have won at least seven races and the sixth consecutive seasons with at least five American victories. 

From 2008-2016, American drivers combined for five victories or more in a season only twice, five in 2012 and six in 2015. 

This was the sixth time in eight seasons at least three different Americans won a race, but there have not been four different American drivers to win in a single season since the 2003 IRL season when five Americans won a race. Those Americans were Scott Sharp, Al Unser, Jr., Bryan Herta, Alex Barron and Sam Hornish, Jr. 

How Good Was Team Penske?
Team Penske was really good this season. It won the championship with Will Power. It won nine races total, five at the hands of Newgarden, three courtesy of Scott McLaughlin's sensational sophomore season and Power won the Penske promoted race at Belle Isle just to boot. 

The drivers went first, second, fourth in the championship. Not bad, but Team Penske did that in 2016 with Pagenaud, Power and Hélio Castroneves, so it is kind of old hat for the team and back in 1994, Team Penske went 1-2-3 with Al Unser, Jr. Emerson Fittipaldi and Paul Tracy. In that case, 1-2-4 isn't that impressive. 

The 2016 group won nine of 16 races, the same total as 2022, but 2022 had a lower winning percentage thanks to that extra race. The 1994 team won 12 of 16 races, a greater total and greater percentage. The 1994 team had 29 podium finishes, 2016 had 22 and 2022 had 22 as well. The 1994 team swept the podium five times, something the 2016 team and 2022 team didn't do. In 2016, Penske did have four 1-2 results, but the team only had two 1-2 finishes this past season. The 2016 team earns top honors in pole positions with 11 to 1994's ten and Penske only had nine pole positions in 2022.

Perhaps the greatest difference in these three Penske seasons is Team Penske won the 1994 Indianapolis 500. Team Penske did not win the 2016 nor 2022 Indianapolis 500s. Its best finisher in 2016 was Will Power in tenth. This season it was Newgarden in 13th. I think Roger Penske would take that into significant consideration if he were to weigh in on this debate.

Still good, but let's slow our roll on treating 2022 as Team Penske's greatest season ever. 

But another way to take into consideration would be to look at the championship through another lens. If IndyCar had the 9-6-4-3-2-1 points system that Formula One used from the 1961 to 1991 seasons, entering the finale, Josef Newgarden would have had 51 points, Scott McLaughlin would have had 51 points and Will Power would have had 51 points. 

We would have gone into the finale with all three Penske drivers tied on points and only the Penske drivers would have been alive for the championships. It would have been "may the best Penske driver win" for the title. The 2022 season might not have been the greatest collection of numbers for Team Penske, but in terms of total team control, 2022 has a case. 

Dixon vs. Newgarden
It was a historic season for IndyCar. The most notable achievement was Scott Dixon surpassing Mario Andretti for second all-time in victories. Now there are only 14 victories between him and A.J. Foyt in the record book. 

But there was another impressive milestone partially ignored this season. With five victories, most in the series, Josef Newgarden reached 25 career victories, the 17th driver to reach that milestone. Newgarden is only 31 years old and turns 32nd on December 22. 

Newgarden has been around for a few minutes, but he has a lot of time left in his career. At the end of the 2022 season, Newgarden sits on 181 starts. With nearly half of Dixon's win total, how doesn't Newgarden's hit rate through 181 starts compare to Dixon? 

Dixon Newgarden
Victories 23 25
Podiums 62 47
Top Fives 85 70
Top Tens 127 112
Pole Positions 15 15
Laps Led 3,446 3,381
Laps 27,400 22,240
Championships 2 2
Age at 181st Start 31 years, 16 days 31 years, 8 months, 20 days

How about that? Pretty even, but Newgarden is ahead of victories at an identical part of their careers. 

I think we need to consider the different quality of fields these two drivers competed against in their first 181 starts. Let's establish that Dixon's 181st start was the 2011 Mid-Ohio race. That is six races before Newgarden made his debut. Dixon ran during the split for the first seven seasons of his career. There was a point where Dixon was only competing against 17-19 other cars. The smallest field Newgarden has ever raced in during his IndyCar career is 21 car. We forget the first two seasons of the DW12 chassis had two-dozen cars at every race and the grid has grown back to that level and beyond in recent years. 

The field size accounts for the disparity in podium finishes, top five finishes and top ten finishes. We also have to acknowledge Newgarden spent more time with smaller teams. He ran with Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing/CFH Racing/Ed Carpenter Racing for the first five seasons of his career, his first 83 starts to be specific. Dixon spent the first 23 races with PacWest Racing and he has been with Chip Ganassi Racing ever since. 

Both drivers have had their down periods in terms of equipment. Dixon was strapped with the beleaguered Panoz-Toyota combination for the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Newgarden started his career with Honda when Chevrolet came out like gangbusters at the start of the DW12-era. Newgarden has led 65 fewer laps than Dixon through 181 starts, but Newgarden has run 5,160 fewer laps. On percentages, Newgarden has led 15.202% of the laps he has completed to Dixon's 12.576%.

We must remember Dixon ran in the Indy Racing League and ran only ovals in 2003 and 2004, and the IRL was still a predominantly oval series through the 2010 season. Newgarden never had a season with 16 races all scheduled to be at least 200 laps in length. 

It has been an honor to watch Scott Dixon race, but we are also witnessing something great with Newgarden and we have something to watch for over the next decade.

Rossi Retrospective
Laguna Seca marked the 114th and, for the moment, final time we will see Alexander Rossi drive for Andretti Autosport in IndyCar competition. A relationship formed at a crossroads, Rossi entered IndyCar after a sampling of Formula One with the Marussia organization and Andretti Autosport and Bryan Herta Autosport merged to keep an entrant on the grid. 

Rossi started in a black-and-white livery only to pick up NAPA Auto Parts sponsorship for the Indianapolis 500 and Belle Isle in a short-term deal to cover the final three races that would be broadcasted on network television in the United States that season. Five hundred miles and an epic fuel conservation stint later, Rossi laid down the foundation for the next six years. 

The NAPA colors are now familiar on the IndyCar grid and tied to Rossi. Rossi went from American Formula One hopeful who got there but circumstances meant he couldn't stay to IndyCar lightning rod, quickly becoming one of the most competitive drivers in the series. He pushed for the championship in 2018 and 2019, but slid the last three seasons leading to this exit and move to Arrow McLaren SP. 

This is a big change for Rossi and the Andretti Autosport organization. Rossi was the top driver in the championship in five of his seven seasons and his worst championship position was 11th. 

Since becoming Andretti Green Racing in the 2003 IRL season, Rossi has the fourth most starts with the team behind only Marco Andretti (250), Ryan Hunter-Reay (198) and Tony Kanaan (131). Rossi is tied with Dario Franchitti for third most victories in the organization on eight, behind only Hunter-Reay's 15 and Kanaan's 14. Rossi is third in podiums, his 28 only trailing Kanaan's 49 and Hunter-Reay's 42.

A championship is the only thing missing from Rossi's time with this group. Perhaps if the cautions had fallen differently at Portland or he avoided contact at the start of Sonoma this moment would be different for both driver and organization. Though the Astor Cup is missing from the collection, Rossi's time at Andretti Autosport will be remembered for the years to come.

17-For-17!
Speaking of Alexander Rossi, back in June when we did a look at IndyCar tidbits halfway through the season I put on the radar the possibility of a driver finishing all 17 races in 17 different positions. 

By golly, Rossi did it! Seventeen races, 17 different finishing positions. 

20th, 27th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 19th, 23rd, 13th, 18th, 1st, 4th, 25th, 7th, 10th. 

I can hardly believe it happen. Each time I look at the results I carefully read each one thinking there has to be a repeat in there, but none is there. 

This nearly didn't happen. Entering the final race, Rossi had finished in each of the top five positions and in eight of the top ten spots. Sixth and tenth were the only two remaining. He also could have finished this off with a 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 21st, 22nd, 24th or 26th to go 17-for-17.

Rossi qualified third, so not a promising start for this piece of history, but Rossi had a lot of bad luck this year and there were still four spots outside the top twenty in play. He moved up to second at the start, so that wasn't helping the cause and he remained in a unsatisfying position for the sake of this piece of trivia until lap 14 when he returned to the track in 14th after his first pit stop. 

But after the first pit cycle Rossi settled around eighth and then he was driving forward. He got up to sixth for laps 23 and 24 before taking fifth. He dropped back to sixth just prior to this second pit stop. When the caution came out for Callum Ilott's stranded race car, Rossi was positioned in 12th, so that was good for us. He then dropped to 13th at the restart. That was bad. Late in his third stint, Rossi was climbing forward, 12th on lap 50, 11th on lap 52, ninth on lap 54, eighth on lap 58 and he stalled out there before the final round of pit stops began. 

Once the field was done with pit stops Rossi was eighth on lap 73 with 22 laps to go. Rossi either needed to gain two positions or lose two positions. Either was fine with me. Rossi remained in eighth until lap 84 when he overtook Patricio O'Ward. He just needed one more spot, but on lap 92, Scott McLaughlin took seventh from Rossi. Two laps later, Rossi was dropped to tenth with Patricio O'Ward and Marcus Ericsson moving up the order. 

At the checkered flag, Rossi was in tenth, 2.7 seconds behind Ericsson and 2.3 seconds ahead of Colton Herta. 

What did Rossi achieve? 

He is the first driver to finish every race in a different position since Eddie Cheever went 13-for-13 in the 2001 IRL season. Dating back to the 2021 season finale, Rossi has finished the last 18 races in 18 different positions. I don't have all the data, and this could be incorrect, but this has to be one of the longest stretches in IndyCar history without a driver repeating a finishing position. Cheever had a 15-race stretch when you take into consideration the 2000 season finale and 2002 season opener. Ed Jones had 15 different finishing positions in the first 15 races of his IndyCar career during the 2017 season. 

This means absolutely nothing but is fascinating nonetheless.

Palou vs. The Field
Álex Palou thrashed the field at Laguna Seca. It was the beatdown of beatdowns to close out the 2022 season. 

Palou was 30.3812 seconds clear of Newgarden at the finish line. How rare was such a large victory? 

It was the largest margin of victory since Mark Dismore lapped the field in the 1999 Texas season finale for the Indy Racing League! This was only the 14th time in 251 races since reunification that a margin of victory was greater than ten seconds. It was only the fourth time in that span the margin of victory was greater than 20 seconds. Those races are below. 

Mid-Ohio 2009 (29.78)
Kentucky 2010 (13.16)
Baltimore 2011 (10.21)
Belle Isle I 2013 (12.971)
Barber 2016 (13.748)
Watkins Glen 2016 (16.531)
St. Petersburg 2017 (10.351)
Belle Isle II 2018 (11.355)
Mid-Ohio 2018 (12.829)
Long Beach 2019 (20.236)
Road America 2019 (28.439)
GP of Indy 2020 (19.947)
Harvest GP I 2020 (14.294)

When was the last time a driver won by 30 seconds or more and didn't lap the field? 

July 27, 1997! Alex Zanardi won the U.S. 500 by 31.737 seconds over Mark Blundell!

Palou was only 117 days old! 

How many IndyCar races have taken place between that Zanardi victory and Palou's? 

566! 

Entering the 2022 season finale, the previous 14 races that saw a green flag finish had a combined margin of victory of 24.3056 seconds. The average margin of victory was 1.736. Palou dropped a massive outliers into the data set and skewed the results. With Palou's finish, the average margin of victory ballooned to 3.645 seconds. 

There were only two other races this season with a margin of victory greater than the average, and those were the Iowa races when Newgarden won by 6.1784 seconds over Patricio O'Ward and then O'Ward won by 4.2476 seconds over Will Power. 

Seven of 15 races that took the checkered flag under green flag conditions were decided by a second or less, including five road/street course events. Throw out the Laguna Seca race and the road/street courses had a lower average of finish than the ovals by nearly a second and a half! Minus Laguna Seca, the average was 1.33419 seconds for the road and street courses. For ovals it was 2.740925 seconds! 

This is why the median is always important with a set of data, and the median margin of victory this season was 1.0027 seconds, telling a more accurate story of the 2022 season.

Most starts before first top ten finish
Not every record is one you want to have. Nobody really wants to own all the records. That means owning the bad ones as well. It is also highly unlikely a driver could possibly have the most race victories and also have taken the most starts to get a first career victory and then have the record for most starts between victories. You are talking about not winning for 130 races, then winning 68 times but somewhere in the middle of that streak going at least 125 starts without a victory. That career would need to be at least 322 races long, which would be the sixth most in IndyCar history, but all that is unlikely to happen in one career. 

The point being is not every record is good and one of those less stellar records is on the verge of being broken. 

Dalton Kellett ended the 2022 IndyCar season with 41 starts and no career top ten finishes. That isn't good. It is worse when put in context that the record for most career starts without a top ten finish is 43 starts at the hands of Milka Duno. 

Yikes. Not something you want to break. 

But it got me thinking? What is the most starts before a first career top ten finish? Kellett may not get a top ten result in his next three IndyCar starts, which would have him surpass Duno, but what if Kellett kept going and did get that first top ten finish? That record would return to Duno, but where would Kellett stand? 

I did this research, going through over 1,200 drivers who had a top ten finish in the races recognized in IndyCar's record book to find the answer. 

The truth is most drivers who get at least one top ten finish in their careers get a top ten finish on debut. It is a who's who of top ten debutants. All the greats had top ten finishes on debut. 

George Snider, Affonso Giaffone, Stevie Reeves, Shinji Nakano, Casey Mears, Felipe Giaffone, Joël Camathias, Patrick Lemarié, Alex Figge. 

The best of the best. 

About 55.278% of drivers with a top ten finish in their IndyCar careers had their first occur in their first start. 

But not everyone has a good first day. Sometimes they find their form on their second day. 

About 74.77% of the drivers get their first top ten finish in one of their first two starts. Those drivers include some pretty decent talents. 

Dick Simon, Roger Rager, Scott Atchison, Didier André, Hideki Noda, Enrique Bernoldi.

Lesser talent needs three races for that first career top ten finish. Some of these drivers you probably never heard of.

Johnny Rutherford, Jimmy Vasser, Hélio Castroneves, Sam Hornish, Jr., Scott Dixon, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Simon Pagenaud, Marcus Ericsson, Álex Palou. 

See. Nobodies. About 83.642% of top ten finishers get their first in one of their first three starts.

Out of 1,241 drivers with at least one top ten finish, only 102 drivers took more than five starts to get their first career top ten finish. Only 31 drivers took more than ten starts.

Where does Kellett find himself?

I have some good news for him, no matter what he will be in the record book. 

It took Marco Greco 42 starts to get his first career top ten finish, the latest a driver has gotten a first career top ten finish, meaning even if Kellett finishes in the top ten of his next IndyCar start, Kellett will at least match Greco's record. Two starts or more and the record is his until someone else takes longer. 

But to get a sense how rare it is here are the drivers that took more than 15 starts to get a top ten finish in their IndyCar careers.

Marco Greco - 42
A.J. Foyt IV - 32
Sébastien Saavedra - 26
Arnd Meier - 24
James Jakes - 23
Matheus Leist - 22
Alex Barron - 21
Dominic Dobson - 19
Tyce Carlson - 18
Parker Johnstone - 16
Dennis Vitolo - 16
Josef Newgarden - 16

That is the list. Only two of those 12 drivers went on to win an IndyCar race. Barron won twice. Newgarden had a bad rookie season, but that one bad season didn't derail what was a great talent. 

The only other drivers to take more than ten starts for a first career victory who eventually won in IndyCar are Ed Carpenter (14 starts), Buddy Lazier (13), Mark Dismore (13) and Takuma Sato (11). 

Expand that to the drivers didn't get a top ten finish in one of their first five starts and the winners are André Ribeiro (10), Bob Sweikert (9), Michel Jourdain, Jr. (8), Gil de Ferran (7), Mike Conway (7), Sam Hanks (6), Bill Vukovich (6), Al Keller (6), Lloyd Ruby (6), Dick Atkins (6), Héctor Rebaque (6) and Mario Domínguez (6). 

That is 18 of 102 drivers. It is showing the first few races of a career are a good barometer for what a driver's career is going to look like. 

I am not sure anyone had high expectations for Kellett, but he at least has a shot at history if he returns to the track in 2023.

100 laps led in a road/street course race
We touched upon Álex Palou's dominant victory at Laguna Seca, but time isn't the only way a driver can dominate. Laps led show how long someone was at the front. The more a driver can pile up the more dominant he looks. 

With fewer laps on road courses, it is hard to stand out at times with laps led, but Scott McLaughlin lead 104 laps at Portland. Whoa! Most road and street course races aren't even 100 laps long. The century mark is a lot of laps to lead on most ovals. Only two of the last 12 Indianapolis 500s have seen a driver lead at least 100 laps and that is only half the race. McLaughlin led 104 of 110 laps, 94.54%.

That had me wondering, when was the last time a driver led 100 laps or more on a road/street course?

There aren't many opportunities where this could happen. St. Petersburg is the only other active road/street course event 100 laps or greater in distance. Most road/street courses are somewhere in the 70s and 80s. What is the answer?

A.J. Allmendinger at Portland on June 18, 2006. 

Allmendinger led exactly 100 of 105 laps on his way to his first career victory. It was a 18-car field and it was also Allmendinger's first race with Forsythe Racing after he was fired from RuSport after three races. That day Justin Wilson was second and Sébastien Bourdais was third. 

The only driver who was in that 2006 Portland race that was in McLaughlin's beatdown in 2022 was the driver who finished in last place over 16 years ago.

That driver? 

William Steven Power! 

For greater context, since 1946, there have only been 19 occasions of a driver leading 100 laps or more on a road/street course. 

The first to do it was Dan Gurney at Riverside on December 1, 1968. Michael Andretti did it six times in his career, twice in 1990, twice in 1991 and twice in 1992. 

Of those 19 occasions, 16 saw the driver leading 100 laps or more win the race. 

The three blemishes?

Roberto Guerrero led 111 of 112 laps at the Tamiami Park race to close the 1986 season. Guerrero led every lap until his car ran out of fuel and Al Unser, Jr. overtook the Colombian for the victory. It is the only occasion in IndyCar history where a driver led every lap in a race but the final one. 

The next time was two seasons later at the Meadowlands, where the race was 150 laps around a 1.217-mile course. Emerson Fittipaldi had led 107 of the first 110 laps before he had an accident from the top position in turn four. Al Unser, Jr. inherited the lead and led the next 27 laps before Mario Andretti took the top position. Andretti led 11 laps before his car broke down with two laps remaining, handing the lead and eventually victory back to Unser, Jr. Unser, Jr. was the only driver on the lead lap. Only ten of 25 starters took the checkered flag. 

The final occasion was the 1996 Grand Prix of Long Beach. Gil de Ferran led 100 of the first 101 laps but a mechanical issue forced de Ferran to relinquish the lead four laps from the finish. Jimmy Vasser took the top spot and victory. De Ferran limped home in fifth position. 

October Preview
The first day in October is Petit Le Mans, the 2022 IMSA season finale. A few championships will be decided. It will also be the final race weekend for the Daytona Prototype international class before the introduction of the LMDh specification, which will compete in the GTP class starting in 2023. 

It is a two-horse, Acura race in Daytona Prototype international. The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Filipe Albuquerque and Ricky Taylor lead the championship with 3,066 points, 19 points ahead of the #60 Meyer Shank Racing Acura of Tom Blomqvist and Oliver Jarvis. 

The #10 Acura has won four times while the #60 Acura has only won the 24 Hours of Daytona, but it has five runner-up finishes this season. The #60 Acura also leads the Endurance Cup with 30 points, one point ahead of #10 Acura and two points ahead of the #5 Mustang Samplings Cadillac of Tristan Vautier, Richard Westbrook and Loïc Duval. Hélio Castroneves will join the #60 Acura for Petit Le Mans while Brendon Hartley joins the #10 Acura lineup after Will Stevens ran with the team at Daytona and Sebring. 

Acura has not won Petit Le Mans. Cadillac has won three of the last four Petit Le Mans, and Mazda won last year with Oliver Jarvis as one of its drivers.

In LMP2, there are four possible champions. John Farano leads with 1,640 points and Farano will share the #8 Tower Motorsport Oreca-Gibson with Louis Delétraz and Rui Andrade. Dwight Merriman and Ryan Dalziel are second, 33 points back and the most recent winners at Road America. Indy Lights race winner Christian Lundgaard will join Merriman and Dalziel in the #18 Era Motorsport Oreca-Gibson. 

Steven Thomas is 93 points behind Farano, and Thomas will drive the #11 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson with Josh Pierson and Tristan Nunez. Juan Pablo Montoya and Henrik Hedman have an outside shot at the championship, finding themselves 108 points off the top spot, and they will have Sebastián Montoya as their third driver in the #81 DragonSpeed Oreca-Gibson. 

The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Ben Keating, Mikkel Jensen and Scott Huffaker lead the Endurance Cup standings with 35 points. With the withdrawal of the #29 Racing Team Nederland Oreca-Gibson, PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports will clinch the Endurance Cup simply by starting Petit Le Mans. The #52 Oreca won Sebring and Watkins Glen and was fourth at Daytona. 

CORE Autosport leads the LMP3 championship with the #54 Ligier-Nissan of Colin Braun and Jon Bennett on 1,716 points and they will have 2022 GT America champion George Kurtz join the team for Petit Le Mans. Gar Robinson is 83 points back and he will share the #74 Riley Motorsports Ligier-Nissan with Felipe Fraga and Kay van Berlo. Garett Grist and Ari Balogh are 119 points back in the #30 JR III Racing Ligier-Nissan. Road to Indy driver Nolan Siegel will be Grist and Balogh's third driver this weekend.

The #74 Ligier leads the Endurance Cup on 34 points, three points ahead of the #33 Sean Creech Motorsport Ligier-Nissan of João Barbosa and Malthe Jakobsen. Grist is third on 27 points with Bennett, Braun and Kurtz on 26 points. 

All Matt Campbell and Mathieu Jaminet have to do is start Petit Le Mans in the #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche to clinch the GT Daytona Pro championship. The Australian-French duo has won five times this season, and Felipe Nasr is back for the finale. Antonio García and Jordan Taylor has the #3 Corvette second in the champions on 2,908 points, 16 points ahead of Ben Barnicoat, who will be in the #14 Vasser Sullian Lexus with Jack Hawksworth and Kyle Kirkwood. Nicky Catsburg rounds out the #3 Corvette driver lineup.

García and Taylor lead the GTD Pro Endurance Cup standings on 27 points, two ahead of Davide Rigon and Daniel Serra, who are back in the #62 Risi Competizione Ferrari and they will have James Calado in the car as well. Campbell and Jaminet are third in Endurance Cup, three points off the Corvette. Ross Gunn and Alex Riberas are four points off in the #23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin. BMW has slim hopes of the Endurance Cup with Connor De Phillippi and John Edwards six points back in the #25 BMW Team RLL entry. 

Six teams could win the GT Daytona championship this weekend. Roman De Angelis leads on 2,630 points, 45 points ahead of Stevan McAleer. De Angelis will drive the #23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin with Maxime Martin and Ian James while McAleer will be in the #32 Team Korthoff Motorsports Mercedes-AMG with Mike Skeen and Dirk Müller. Ryan Hardwick and Jan Heylen are 57 points back in the #16 Wright Motorsports Porsche with Zacharie Robichon rounding out their lineup for the weekend. 

After winning the last two races, Phillip Ellis and Russell Ward are now in the championship conversation and the #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG is 140 points behind De Angelis with Marvin Dienst in the #57 Mercedes-AMG this weekend. Turner Motorsport has a shot but a 162-point deficit to overcome for Bill Auberlen and Robby Foley in the #96 BMW along with Michale Dinan. Robert Megennis and Jeff Westphal are 171 points back and they will have Corey Lewis as their third driver in the #39 CarBahn with Peregrine Racing Lamborghini. 

The GTD Endurance Cup has the #70 inception Racing McLaren leading with Brendan Iribe and Jordan Pepper on 31 points, five points ahead of the #21 AF Corse Ferrari of Toni Vilander, Simon Mann and Luís Pérez Companc. De Angelis and James are on 24 points as well as Hardwick, Heylen and Robichon. 

The 25th Petit Le Mans is scheduled to begin at 12:10 p.m. ET on Saturday October 1. 

Other events of note in October
The World Drivers' Championship could be sealed up in Singapore, Japan, the United States or Mexico.
There will be the Bathurst 1000...
... and the Indianapolis 8 Hours.
By the end of the month, we will know the four drivers eligible for the NASCAR Cup championship in the finale. 
MotoGP rounds out its Asia-Pacific swing.
European Le Mans Series closes its season in Portimão.
Super Formula ends at Suzuka. 




IndyCar Wrap-Up: Meyer Shank Racing's 2022 Season

The fourth IndyCar Wrap-Up looks at the expanding Meyer Shank Racing organization. This was the first season for MSR as a full-time two-car program, and it saw a new driver added to the lineup, a past champion at that. After winning the Indianapolis 500 in 2021, MSR had high expectations for the following season. There were a few good days, but they were more infrequent than the team would have hoped for and the team saw a slight dip from past seasons.

Simon Pagenaud
After seven seasons with Team Penske, Pagenaud joined Meyer Shank Racing looking for his seventh consecutive top ten championship finish. The Frenchman went winless in 2021 and was looking to avoid a second consecutive winless season. Meyer Shank Racing had one victory to its name, but it was looking for its first road/street course triumph after a few close calls in the last few seasons. Pagenaud had good days with MSR, but the second half saw a downturn in form as the team struggled for speed and reliability in the final races.

What objectively was his best race?
One of probably only two cars not to have any contact or off-track excursions during the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Pagenaud wound up second to Colton Herta. Pagenaud kept Herta honest, but the Frenchman was not going to repeat his 2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis performance in the wet when he chased and overtook Scott Dixon for the lead with two laps to go. Second was always going to be Pagenaud's prize for that Saturday afternoon. 

What subjectively was his best race?
The Grand Prix of Indianapolis is likely number one on this list, but in the Indianapolis 500, Pagenaud spent much of the race in the top ten and ended up finishing eighth. He never looked like a threat for victory, but he was one of the most consistent drivers throughout the entire Indianapolis 500 festivities as he was around tenth in almost every practice session as well. 

What objectively was his worst race?
While arguably his best two races came at Indianapolis, so did one of his worst races of the season. He looked set for a top ten finish in the July IMS road course race, but Pagenaud run out of fuel during the second stint of his race and ended up 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is hard to beat the Brickyard weekend, but Pagenaud was 23rd in both Iowa races and both Meyer Shank Racing cars were dreadful during the doubleheader. He also had two wasted runs late in the season. He was moving forward at Portland before gearbox issues halted his progressive and had him finish ten laps down. At Laguna Seca, he qualified tenth, but wound up a lap down in 17th at the checkered flag. 

Simon Pagenaud's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 15th (314 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 13.647
Average Finish: 14.176

Hélio Castroneves
Returning to full-time IndyCar competition for the first time since 2017, Castroneves looked to use his fourth Indianapolis 500 victory the year before as a springboard for his 2022 season. The Brazilian had finished in the top five in the championship in nine of his final ten full IndyCar seasons, but five years removed from his last full championship push, it was expected he would not be at that same level. For some, Castroneves was further off than anticipated.  

What objectively was his best race?
It was at the race that made Castroneves famous, the Indianapolis 500, but it wasn't a victory, rather a seventh-place finish from 27th on the grid. Castroneves spent the entire race climbing up the running order and in the final run he got ahead of his teammate Pagenaud. Not a race victory, but a victory in terms of bragging rights. 

What subjectively was his best race?
It is really Indianapolis. Not much else comes close. A ninth at Long Beach and an eighth at Mid-Ohio don't quite cut it.

What objectively was his worst race?
Electrical issues took Castroneves out of Belle Isle after 21 laps, placing him in 25th after he qualified fourth. To add insult to injury, it was one of only two retirements for Castorneves this season. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Belle Isle is particularly bad, but the worst part of Castroneves' season was how often he was anonymous. He had four finishes outside the top twenty alone and another four finishes worse than 15th. His qualifying pace didn't do him any favors with only two top ten starts but 12 starting positions outside the top fifteen. It is hard to have good days when you are starting the day at the back especially that often. 

It should also be noted in his only other top ten start, Castroneves was collected in the Devlin DeFrancesco-Graham Rahal incident. Castroneves had already lost ground from sixth on the grid, but he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time in that accident. 

Hélio Castroneves' 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 18th (263 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 18.412
Average Finish: 16.471

An Early Look Ahead
The 2023 season will have a lame-duck feel to it. 

This will likely be Castroneves' final full season in IndyCar unless he pulls off a remarkable turnaround. His 2022 season was always going to be difficult being so far removed from full-time IndyCar competition, and to give him credit, Castroneves finished on the lead lap or only one lap down in 14 of 15 races he finished but keeping up to finish on the lead lap feels like his ceiling. He can hold on to 15th but not push for much higher. He is 47 years old and will turn 48 in the middle of next May. Castroneves has had a full career. It is time to move on. He could still be an Indianapolis one-off for the next few years. I would love to see him race into his 50s, but the full-time gig is done. 

MSR is likely disappointed its best driver was 15th in the championship and it probably thinks it should be contending for at least the top ten in the championship. That is a realistic expectation. The middle is quite tight in IndyCar. There is not much separating MSR from Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Ed Carpenter Racing, Dale Coyne Racing and even Andretti Autosport is falling to that middle tier. Top ten is within reach for this group. 

MSR has shown the competitiveness of a top ten team, but since it became a full-time operation there is always one element the team cannot quite get a handle on. There have been strategic decisions and mechanical problems that have set this team back. The biggest problem for this team is it just can't seem to get out of its own way. 

The team was lost at Iowa and running Pagenaud out of fuel at the second IMS road course race likely cost the team a top ten, possibly a top five result. Then the team had another unexplained mechanical issue at Portland on Pagenaud and when it looked like the team would end on a high note at Laguna Seca with both cars making the second round of qualifying, both cars dropped like rocks in the race. 

The flashes of speed are there, but the team doesn't really maximize them. 

I don't think Pagenaud has lost it as a driver and frankly he was his same old consistent self in 2022, but with Pagenaud and Castroneves being the second wave of drivers for MSR after Jack Harvey these results expose the problems at the team level. There is no more wondering what is on the driver and what is on the team. These results should point where improvements need to be made in the 2023 season, and I think MSR can make those adjustments and become a more competitive team, but there is the lame-duck element in this group. 

The loyalty to Castroneves is understood, but MSR is a team with big ambitions. It tested Formula E champion and potential 2023 Formula One driver Nyck de Vries last offseason. I think the 2022 season looks pretty different if de Vries was in that car, and it would also show what the team's five-year plan is. Even when Castroneves was first announced as a returning to full-time competition that was at most going to be three years. Pairing a young driver such as de Vries with Pagenaud sets the direction for the next five years if not the next ten for MSR. Those plans are on hold until Castroneves is no longer the full-time driver in the #06 Honda.

I hope MSR didn't miss its shot but the more exciting season for this team will be 2024 than 2023. I really want to see what MSR can do with a dedicated driver it can build around for the long-term while the team also works on its strategic and technical shortcomings. 

This is a race-winning team and with the right pieces together it can contend for an IndyCar championship, but we are just a little off from that being a reality. 


Tuesday, September 27, 2022

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Dale Coyne Racing's 2022 Season

The third IndyCar Wrap-Up will look at our first Honda team. Dale Coyne Racing underwent a full driver change for the 2022 season. After housing Romain Grosjean, who was the darling of the 2021 season, and bringing back Ed Jones, Coyne swap one Formula One veteran for another and dropped a rookie into its other seat. Despite the changes, the team had high hopes for this season as it looked to score its first victory since 2018.

David Malukas
After finishing runner-up in the 2021 Indy Lights championship, Malukas moved up to IndyCar as his family's team partnered with the Dale Coyne Racing operation. The Illinois teams united and carried some excitement into this year with expectations of competing for Rookie of the Year. The best didn't happen all at once, but this group grew into the success, and Malukas ended 2022 with higher stock than when he started the season. 

What objectively was his best race?
How about a runner-up finish at Gateway? The Dale Coyne Racing team was running an alternate strategy anticipating rain and when the rain came Malukas and teammate Takuma Sato were in top ten positions. After a lengthy delay, Malukas came alive after the restart. drove onto the podium and pressured Josef Newgarden in the closing laps.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Gateway. Malukas looked good all weekend, but the team's call in the race allowed the Illinois-native to be aggressive in his home race and set him up for that late run to the podium. 

It should also be noted Malukas looked good on all the ovals, 11th at Texas, 16th at Indianapolis, the top rookie finisher on the road, and he was 14th and eighth at the Iowa races. He was also 11th at Belle Isle with fastest lap. 

What objectively was his worst race?
The first race of the season, and in turn the first race of Malukas' IndyCar career. He got into the marbles in turn four and hit the barrier, knocking him out of his first race after 23 laps and classifying him in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
A possible top five finish was in the cards at Nashville before Malukas and Kyle Kirkwood got together in turn nine. It was an ambitious attempt from Kirkwood, and he did graze the inside barrier, but Malukas was pinching Kirkwood tight into that corner and the officials put Malukas behind Kirkwood as they saw the incident as avoidable contact from Malukas.

Long Beach wasn't good either. Malukas started 18th, had an improper pit exit penalty while already running at the back and was then caught in Jimmie Johnson's accident late in the race in turn eight. 

David Malukas' 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (305 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 12.647
Average Finish: 14

Takuma Sato
After four seasons and an Indianapolis 500 victory with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Sato moved to Coyne, the fifth team in his IndyCar career. Sato gave many reasons for confidence. He was filling a car that had been on the podium multiple times the previous season, and Sato had finished 12th or better in the championship in the previous five years. There was hope of big finishes for the #51 Honda entry, but these were humbler results.

What objectively was his best race?
It was the same race as Sato's teammate, Gateway. Sato qualified eighth and was in the top ten for most of it. He looked like the only driver capable with mixing it with the top seven championship contenders in the first half of the race until Malukas came alive. It was one of the few races Sato spent the entire race in the top ten and he finished fifth.

What subjectively was his best race?
Gateway, but the second Iowa race deserves a mention because he fought for a top ten result in that one. Non-descriptive results defined Sato's season. The second Iowa race was one of the few times we really saw him run competitively for top positions.

What objectively was his worst race?
Sato was 25th in the Indianapolis 500 after deciding to make a stop 43 laps from the finish in a Hail Mary attempt for victory. He fell many laps short of making it on fuel and his final stop came just before the Jimmie Johnson accident in turn two, which meant Sato was trapped a lap down. It didn't help that Sato started tenth and faded over the course of the race. 

He was also 25th at Toronto after catching the barrier on the outside of turn two on the opening lap.

What subjectively was his worst race?
When your race is over in two corners, it is difficult to say anything else was worse. Toronto has a good case. 

Takuma Sato's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 19th (258 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 33
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 14.706
Average Finish: 16

An Early Look Ahead
Malukas will be back. We are unsure of Sato's status. The team would like to expand to three cars with the likely driver being the 2022 Indy Lights champion Linus Lundqvist, who drove for Henry Malukas' HMD Motorsports, but Honda isn't committing to more than 15 full-time engine programs and that could keep Coyne at two cars for next season. It also doesn't help that Lundqvist received only $500,000 for his Indy Lights championship, down from the $1.2 million prize past Indy Lights champions received, as Penske Entertainment Group took over promotion of the series after Andersen Promotion worked in partnership with IndyCar over the previous few seasons.

Coyne didn't win a race, but there was a lot to be positive about. Malukas grew with each race. There were very few moments he looked like a rookie. He did the smart thing of completing as many laps as he could and scored some impressive results while other rookies weren't as consistent finishing races. He fell short of Rookie of the Year but consider that nine of the 14 Rookies of the Year since reunification were not full-time in IndyCar in 2022 and that award loses some of its luster. Josef Newgarden wasn't Rookie of the Year and neither was Álex Palou. How are those careers going? 

The one concern for Malukas is he does feel like another one of these Road to Indy drivers that had good days early in his time in IndyCar but didn't have a great day. Gabby Chaves had good days in IndyCar. Chaves nearly won Pocono as a rookie and he rarely had a retirement in his time in IndyCar, but Chaves is no longer in the series. Carlos Muñoz was stunning on big ovals and regularly had good results, but Muñoz is no longer in the series. Spencer Pigot had good days when he was the road/street course driver for Ed Carpenter Racing, but Pigot is no longer in the series. Everyone was sure Ed Jones was the real deal during his rookie year with Coyne in 2017. Jones wasn't on the grid in 2020 and he wasn't on the grid again in 2022. 

There was a lot of hype behind Malukas to move to Chip Ganassi Racing if the #10 Honda entry was open as the Álex Palou-to-McLaren drama played out, but recent history suggests we should pump the brakes on such thoughts and see how the sophomore season goes before crowning Malukas as the next great thing in IndyCar. 

Malukas has a wonderful, open personality that the series should promote. I think he can attract a healthy following, but the biggest thing that will determine his exposure is on-track success. Josef Newgarden paid his dues driving for the single-car Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing. He had pulled out encouraging results with little behind him before SFHR and Ed Carpenter Racing merged, which led to race victories, which then became a move to Team Penske. 

Newgarden was rumored for a Penske move after the 2012 season, but that move came five years later and instantly resulted in a championship. 

Patience is a good thing. I don't think anyone realizes Malukas turns 21 years old today! He spent the entire 2022 season as a 20-year-old. There is a long career ahead of him. He doesn't need to be thrust into a more difficult situation. Malukas is in the right place for his sophomore season, and it will likely be the right place for year three and year four as well. It is good for him, and it is good for Coyne to stay committed to one another for the next few years. That will help both parties out into the future. 

Sato is the question mark. The 2022 season wasn't great, but we didn't see Sato revert to the driver of his first six IndyCar season that showed flashes of speed and tore up a lot of carbon fiber. IndyCar is that competitive that a clean but quick Sato is 19th in the championship. It is also a case that the 45-year-old Sato is regressing. His qualifying form has been down notable the last two years. The race results are also taking a dip. He turns 46 years old this January. We are approaching the final IndyCar starts for Takuma Sato. How many are left? I think they are countable at this point. 

It could be over. Sato could decide he has had enough and get out before going through one more difficult season where it is a challenge to crack the top fifteen. Or he gives it one more swing on the full schedule and tries to make a little more magic. 

A different driver alongside Malukas could be the best choice for the team and take it to a higher level. Other than Lundqvist, there isn't another driver floating out as a possible Coyne entrant in 2023. Sato can positively contribute to this team, but the general expectation is if the changes don't come in 2023 than 2024 will see a tweak with the goal being Dale Coyne Racing matching some of its best seasons ever in IndyCar.