Monday, June 27, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Picking Through the IndyCar Season So Far

Robert Wickens won a race. So did Mark Wilkins, as the Canadian duo won at Watkins Glen in the Michelin Pilot Challenge's TCR class. Bill Auberlen and Dillon Machavern won overall in that race with Turner Motorsport. Watkins Glen hosted nothing but fabulous races all weekend. Mazda MX-5 Cup was spectacular. It was a good week for hillclimbs. I hope American Formula One fans like commercials. Adelaide is back on the Supercars schedule, and it will be the 2022 season finale. Porsche unveiled its 963 LMDh entry, it costs $2.9 million, and the factory confirmed its driver line-up. Sébastien Loeb had an engine fire. Honda is running out of healthy MotoGP riders. IndyCar did some testing at Iowa and on the IMS road course. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

Picking Through the IndyCar Season So Far
Eight races are behind us this IndyCar season with nine remaining. At this quasi-midway point to the championship, now is a good time to look over what happened over the first four months of the season.

It is one thing to look at the race winners and the championship, but let's look at some of the finer details of the season, the things that you really have to look for. These are eight deep observations from the first eight races of the 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season.

No Double Points
Every year after Indianapolis, we are wondering what the championship would look like without double points. This year saw Marcus Ericsson go from seventh to first in the championship off his Indianapolis 500 victory. If it was a normal race, 50 points for a victory and no additional qualifying points, Ericsson likely would not have gone to the championship lead. 

But how would things look if Indianapolis was treated like every other race?

1. Will Power - 249 (+1)
2. Josef Newgarden - 244 (+1)
3. Marcus Ericsson - 235 (-2)
4. Álex Palou - 213 (+1)
5. Scott Dixon -204 (+1)
6. Patricio O'Ward - 202 (-2)
7. Scott McLaughlin - 194 (+2)
8. Colton Herta - 191 (+3)
9. Alexander Rossi - 188 (-2)
10. Simon Pagenaud - 173 (-)
11. Felix Rosenqvist - 166 (-3)
12. Romain Grosjean - 165 (-)
13. Rinus VeeKay - 146 (+1)
14. Conor Daly - 143 (-1)
15. Graham Rahal - 143 (-)
16. Christian Lundgaard - 128 (-)
17. Takuma Sato - 125 (+1)
18. Hélio Castroneves - 110 (-1)
19. David Malukas - 109 (-)
20. Jack Harvey - 99 (-)
21. Callum Ilott - 85 (+1)
22. Kyle Kirkwood - 80 (-1)
23. Jimmie Johnson - 79 (+1)
24. Devlin DeFrancesco - 76 (-1)
25. Dalton Kellett - 57 (+2)
26. Tatiana Calderón - 53 (+3)
27. Santino Ferrucci - 51 (-1)
28. Tony Kanaan - 36 (-3)
29. J.R. Hildebrand - 35 (-1)
30. Ed Carpenter - 29 (-)
31. Juan Pablo Montoya - 25 (-)
32. Marco Andretti - 9 (-)
33. Simona de Silvestro - 9 (+2)
34. Sage Karam - 8 (-1)
35. Stefan Wilson - 5 (-1)

A bunch of positions change, but there isn't some seismic shift in the championship standings. Power would be on top, Ericsson would drop two spots but would only be 14 points off the championship lead. O'Ward would lose two spots as would Rossi, and the drivers that had bad days at Indianapolis gain spots. McLaughlin would be up two, Herta up three, Dixon gets a spot, even VeeKay would get a spot. 

But overall, the picture looks pretty much the same.

Ericsson - Eight Different Finishing Positions
Speaking of Marcus Ericsson, through eight races he has finished in eight different positions. 

9th, 3rd, 22nd, 12th, 4th, 1st, 7th, 2nd. 

Ericsson isn't the only one to do that this year. Alexander Rossi, Scott McLaughlin, Colton Herta, Rinus VeeKay, and Kyle Kirkwood have done it as well. 

Rossi: 20th, 27th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 5th, 2nd, 3rd.

McLaughlin: 1st, 2nd, 14th, 6th, 20th, 29th, 19th, 7th

Herta: 4th, 12th, 23rd, 10th, 1st, 30th, 8th, 5th

VeeKay: 6th, 10th, 13th, 3rd, 23rd, 33rd, 16th, 17th

Kirkwood: 18th, 25th, 10th, 22nd, 26th, 17th, 24th, 20th

That's not even the strangest part. Ericsson opened last season with ten finishes in ten different positions. 

8th, 7th, 19th, 12th, 10th, 11th, 1st, 9th, 8th, 2nd

His first repeat position was first when he won at Nashville!

But Ericsson didn't even have the longest streak last season. Will Power did not have a repeat finishing position through the first 12 events.

Power 2021: 2nd, 8th, 14th, 13th, 11th, 30th, 20th, 6th, 3rd, 25th, 14th, 1st

So I have to ask, has a driver ever finished in a different position and started every race in a season?

The answer is yes, most recently was in 2001 with Eddie Cheever in the Indy Racing League.

In 2001, Cheever finished 19th, 9th, 24th, 26th, 12th, 6th, 13th, 1st, 15th, 21st, 4th, 3rd and 18th, 13 different finishing position in 13 races.

It was actually quite frequent in the early IRL seasons, as the schedules were shorter. It happened every season from 1996 to 2001. The 1996 season only had three races and 13 drivers had a different finish in each race. No surprise there. 

In 1997, Buddy Lazier had ten different finishing positions in ten races. The 1998 season had Cheever, John Paul, Jr., Sam Schmidt and Mark Dismore each have 11 different finishing positions in 11 races. Dismore did it in a second consecutive season with ten different finishing positions in ten races during the 1999 campaign. In 2000, Cheever, Robbie Buhl, Greg Ray, Airton Daré and Jaret Schroeder had nine different finishing positions in nine races. Then Cheever did it on his own in 2001. 

In 2002, Jeff Ward had 14 different finishing positions entering the 15th and final round of the season. Ward was 25th in the Texas finale and he had finished 25th at Michigan four races earlier. 

While we had all those drivers have a different finishing position in every race of a season, the longest streak to open a season since the CART-IRL split in 1996 was Ed Jones, who in 2017 had 15 different finishing positions in the first 15 races. He was 13th in the 15th round at Gateway. In the 16th round at Watkins Glen, he naturally finished 13th. 

Outside of the 1996 IRL season, every IRL/IndyCar season has had at least one driver start the season with at least nine different finishes through the first nine races.

Expanding this beyond the Indy Racing League/IndyCar, no one ever did it in CART. Bobby Unser and Scott Brayton made it through ten of 11 races in 1981 with a different finishing position. Unser was second in the Phoenix finale. He was second in the Phoenix season opener as well. Brayton failed to qualify for the Phoenix finale.

Since 1946, only five other drivers have had a different finishing position in every race of a season. Mel Kenyon did it in 1972, going ten-for-ten. The other four happened over two seasons during the USAC-CART split. In the 1979 USAC season, Jerry Sneva and Cliff Hucul each had seven different finishing positions in seven races. In the 1981-82 USAC Season, Tom Bigelow and Gary Bettenhausen each had six different finishing positions in six races. Bigelow and Bettenhausen were the only two drivers to start all six races that season. 

That means, since the end of World War II, there have been 30 occasions of a driver finishing in a different position in every race of a season, spread over nine different seasons. 

Kenyon is the only driver to have a different finishing position in every race in a season during a non-fractured period of IndyCar racing, and overall, the longest season a driver did it in was 13 races.

If any of the six drivers still alive does it in 2022, it would be a historic accomplishment. 

Last Formula One-Experienced Champion
Ericsson is leading the championship and he has 97 Formula One starts to his name. With many people considering Formula One vastly superior to IndyCar, Ericsson did get me wondering when was the last time a Formula One-experienced driver won an IndyCar championship. 

This is a driver who had already driven in Formula One and then won an IndyCar championship. Sébastien Bourdais would not count, as all of Bourdais' Champ Car championships came before his first Formula One start.

Looking over the recent champions, none of them have raced in Formula One. Scott Dixon has won five of 14 championships since reunification. Dario Franchitti has three championships in that timeframe. Josef Newgarden has two. Ryan Hunter-Reay, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud and Álex Palou each have one. But those seven champions combine for zero Formula One starts. 

There have been past Formula One drivers to come through IndyCar and compete full-time since reunification. Rubens Barrichello competed in 2012. We have Alexander Rossi now, as well as Ericsson and this is Romain Grosjean's first full season. Takuma Sato has been full-time since 2010 but has never finished better than seventh in the championship. Justin Wilson spent over a decade in IndyCar but never won a championship. Robert Doornbos had two full seasons but no championships. Max Chilton spent a few seasons in IndyCar and didn't even get on a podium for a race. 

We covered Bourdais. Sam Hornish, Jr. never raced in Formula One. Neither did Dan Wheldon nor Tony Kanaan nor Paul Tracy. Cristiano da Matta competed in Formula One AFTER his 2002 CART title, not before. Gil de Ferran had no Formula One experience, same as Buddy Lazier and Greg Ray. We know Juan Pablo Montoya went after his CART title. Kenny Bräck didn't run Formula One. 

Alex Zanardi!

The last IndyCar champion with Formula One experience was Zanardi in 1998. Prior to his two titles with Ganassi, the Italian had made 25 Formula One starts between the 1991 and 1994 seasons driving for Jordan, Minardi and Lotus. 

Prior to Zanardi was Nigel Mansell. Bobby Rahal made two Formula One starts in 1978 before he ever entered an IndyCar race let alone won three championships. Emerson Fittipaldi was a two-time world champion before winning his first IndyCar title. Danny Sullivan drove for Tyrrell in the 1983 Formula One season after making a pair of IndyCar starts in 1982, including finishing third on debut at Atlanta, but Sullivan's IndyCar title came in 1988, five years after his one year in Formula One. 

Six out of eight seasons from 1986 to 1993, the IndyCar champion had made at least one Formula One start before winning the IndyCar title. Since 1994, Zanardi is the only champion with prior Formula One experience. Kind of stunning when you think about it... you know with those Formula One drivers having such superior skills and all. Even the most mediocre Formula One driver would wipe the floor in the IndyCar... or perhaps not.

Swedish Domination
More Marcus Ericsson talk! Ericsson leads the IndyCar championship while fellow Swede Linus Lundqvist leads the Indy Lights championship. 

I ask: When was the last time the IndyCar championship leader and the Indy Lights championship leader were the same nationality but excluding American drivers? 

How about September 9, 2007 after Chicagoland? The final Indy Racing League race prior to reunification. On that day, Alex Lloyd claimed the Indy Lights championship and Dario Franchitti won the IndyCar championship in dramatic fashion on the final lap. Two British drivers, each ended that day as champion.

What is the Best Starting Position?
You may have heard it a few times on the IndyCar broadcasts this year, but the pole-sitter has not been great this year. 

Through eight races, the average finishing position for the pole-sitter is 9.875. That doesn't mean it has been a poor season. The pole-sitter has won once, been on the podium in half the races and been in the top five in five races, but the pole-sitter has also finished 21st, 23rd and 21st this year. 

For comparison, here is the average finish for the pole-sitter over the previous six seasons.

2016: 4.06
2017: 9.56
2018: 6.41
2019: 6.36
2020: 8.36
2021: 5.63

If the pole-sitter is averaging a finish of 9.875, and this is considered a poor season for it, what starting position has the best average finish this season? 

2nd - 6.0
7th - 6.375
8th - 9.375
5th - 9.75
4th - 9.75
1st - 9.875
6th - 10.0
11th - 10.75
30th - 11th (One race - Indianapolis)
14th - 12.25
16th - 12.375
18th - 12.375
13th - 12.875
20th - 13.0
9th - 13.25
27th - 14.75 (4 races)
10th - 14.875
3rd - 15.375
15th - 15.75
19th - 15.875
17th - 16.75
21st - 17.0
28th - 17.0 (One race - Indianapolis)
12th - 17.375
22nd - 17.75
31st - 18.0 (One race - Indianapolis)
24th - 19.625
25th - 20.5
23rd - 22.625
26th - 23.125
32nd - 24.0 (One race - Indianapolis)
33rd - 26.0 (One race - Indianapolis)
29th - 27.0 (One race - Indianapolis)

Pole position doesn't look that bad when put into context.

It should come as no surprise the starting position that has produced three winners this season, and the only starting position to have multiple winners, is the best through eight races. Second on the grid has been on the podium in five races this season. 

I am not surprised seventh is second. How many times do we see a fast car fail to advance from the second round of qualifying by a few decimal points? That seventh starter is just as quick as those that make the Fast Six. The seventh starter has also finished in the top ten of seven of eight races.

The big question is on 3rd starting position, averaging a 15.375. Rinus VeeKay's 33rd at Indianapolis does drag this down, but third starter finished 20th at Texas, 25th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and 27th at Road America. I think third is the position to avoid more than any others. 

I don't think there are any other major surprises out of that. I think it shows a pretty balanced field. Slow cars usually qualify at the back and finish at the back. Excluding starting positions 28th through 33rd, which have only been seen at Indianapolis, only five starting positions have not produced a top ten finisher this season, the usual bottom four spots on the grid, 23rd, 24th, 25th and 26th, and somewhat strangely 17th. I only say somewhat strangely because 16th, 18th, 19th and 20th have all at least produced one top five finisher this year. 

Seventeen positions have produced a top five finisher this year. The best starting positions to not produce a top five finisher are 12th, which has only one top ten finisher, tenth at Long Beach with Kyle Kirkwood, and 15th, which was eighth at Texas with Simon Pagenaud and tenth at Indianapolis with Santino Ferrucci. 

Six different starting positions have produced race winners, including two starting spots outside the top ten, and both of those came on a road/street course. It is always better to start at the front, but most starting positions have potential in IndyCar at the moment. 

Has Anyone Made a Debut at Iowa?
I dreamt earlier in the week that I finished second to Will Power on debut at Iowa with Scott Dixon finishing third (eat it Dixon!). 

But that got me wondering, has anyone every made their IndyCar debut at Iowa? 

Iowa has always been in the middle of the season, never any earlier than the middle of June and never later than late July. It isn't in a time when we see drivers making their first IndyCar starts. We see some drivers make their debuts in the middle of the season, but mostly at road or street course weekends. Kevin Magnussen debuted at Road America. Esteban Gutiérrez and Santino Ferrucci both debuted at Belle Isle. Ryan Norman debuted at Mid-Ohio last year on the 4th of July. 

When it comes to ovals, not many debut there, at least not since reunification.

Texas 2020 was the first oval season opener since 2008. Kurt Busch and Fernando Alonso both debuted at the Indianapolis 500, but not many drivers picked Texas when it was in June to make their IndyCar debut, though Wade Cunningham comes to mind (hi, Wade!). 

Once the season gets to July or August, a time when Iowa, Gateway and Pocono have taken place in recent seasons, a driver isn't making a debut on an oval. Not to forget mentioning a driver has to pass an oval orientation test before being approved to run on an oval. Unless that driver is throwing cash at a team that test isn't going to happen. That test day would be more valuable elsewhere.

If a seat is open for a midseason oval race, a team is going to find a veteran. Ferrucci, J.R. Hildebrand, Spencer Pigot, Gabby Chaves, Sage Karam, Charlie Kimball, Tony Kanaan, one of those guys are getting the call. 

Back to the question, has any driver made an IndyCar debut at Iowa?

Eighty-one drivers have made an IndyCar start at Iowa. No driver has ever made an IndyCar debut at Iowa. 

Just as I suspected. Will an Iowa debut ever happen? I think that depends more on the health of the Iowa event than some driver who wants to plunge into IndyCar at Iowa. I would love to see some silver crown or sprint car driver like Kody Swanson or Justin Grant or even a Brad Sweet or Donny Schatz make a one-off start at Iowa, but that is highly unlikely to ever happen. 

Of the 81 drivers to run an IndyCar race at Iowa, 22 made their debuts at St. Petersburg, which has been the season opener for the better part of the last 15 years. Fifteen drivers made their debut at Homestead. Homestead was the season opener for CART and the IRL from the late 1990s through the 2000s. The next most is Indianapolis with eight debutants, which makes sense because how many drivers have put together a one-off program for a debut? 

What are a few surprising debut locations?

Did you remember Scott Dixon made his IndyCar debut at Fundidora Park in Monterrey, Mexico? 

Or that Vitor Meira debut at Kentucky? 

Or Jaime Camara and Milka Duno both debuted at Kansas? Albeit those debuts came in different years.

Unless there is something out of left field, I doubt we will see a debut this year at Iowa, but with all that HyVee money being thrown around, maybe this supermarket chain can cause a splash. 

Teammates Loving Teammates
There are seven instances of teammates that are next to each other in the championship. 

Álex Palou and Scott Dixon (5th and 6th)
Colton Herta and Romain Grosjean (11th and 12th)
Conor Daly and Rinus VeeKay (13th and 14th)
Graham Rahal and Christian Lundgaard (15th and 16th)
Takuma Sato and David Malukas (18th and 19th)
Jimmie Johnson and Tony Kanaan (24th and 25th)
Dalton Kellett, Tatiana Calderón and J.R. Hildebrand (27th, 28th and 29th)

It doesn't really mean anything, but it is fascinating nonetheless, especially when teammates are trying to come out best in that intra-team fight. 

This does show which teams have to do work. 

Ed Carpenter Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Dale Coyne Racing have their drivers right in the middle or toward the bottom third of the grid. Those organizations all have work to do. 

Fewest Points Through First Eight Races
You never want to be on the bottom, but you also don't want to be historically on the bottom. 

Through the first eight races, Dalton Kellett has scored 62 points, leaving Kellett 27th in the championship. Only 23 drivers have started every race this season. Kellett is averaging 7.75 points per start and this includes the double points for the Indianapolis 500.

I ask: What is the fewest points through the first eight races of a season? Obviously, this is for drivers who have started all eight races.

I have some bad news for Mr. Kellett. Since 2014, when the Indianapolis 500 became a double points race, his 62 points is by far the fewest a driver has earned through eight races. Even worse is Kellett set the record low last year when he had 81 points through eight races. Prior to the last two seasons, since 2014 the fewest points scored through eight races was 103 by Max Chilton in 2018. 

It gets worse for Mr. Kellett.

His 62 points are the fewest for a driver since reunification and that is including seven seasons when the Indianapolis 500 wasn't double points.

And it gets even worse for Mr. Kellett.

His last two seasons are still the two fewest totals since reunification. The next lowest is 88 points, Sebastián Saavedra's total through the first eight races of the 2013 season. 

Because of differences in points standings, we have to cap this off at reunification. Even the 2008-2011 seasons really aren't a fair comparison because back then 18th to 24th each received 12 points and 25th down all received ten points. From the 2013 season onward is the only timeframe we can use for a fair comparison. 

Either way, this has not been a great year for Mr. Kellett. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Robert Wickens, Mark Wilkins, Bill Auberlen and Dillon Machavern, but did you know...

The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Filipe Albuquerque and Ricky Taylor won the 6 Hours of the Glen, its third victory of the season. The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Ben Keating, Scott Huffaker and Mikkel Jensen won in LMP2, its second victory of the season. The #74 Riley Motorsports Ligier-Nissan of Felipe Fraga, Gar Robinson and Kay van Berlo won in LMP3. The #23 Heart of Racing Aston Martin of Ross Gunn and Alex Riberas won in GTD-Pro, its second victory of the season. The #27 Heart of Racing Aston Martin of Roman De Angelis, Ian James and Maxime Martin won in GTD.

Francesco Bagnaia won the Dutch TT from Assen, his third victory of the season. Augusto Fernández won the Moto2 race, his second consecutive victory and third of the season. Ayumu Sasaki won the Moto3 race, his first career grand prix victory. Dominique Aegerter and Eric Granado split the MoteE races, and both riders now have three victories this season..

Chase Elliott won the NASCAR Cup race from Nashville, his second victory of the season. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race, his second victory of the season. Ryan Preece won the Truck race.

Kalle Rovanperä won Safari Rally, his fourth victory of the season.

Gilles Magnus and Mikel Azcona split the World Touring Car Cup races from Aragón.

Tony Stewart won the SRX race from South Boston Speedway, his first victory of the season, and third in SRX competition. 

Max Chilton won the Goodwood Festival of Speed and set the course record at 39.08 seconds in the McMurty Spéirling. 

Robin Shute won the 100th edition of the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb. 

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar spends a holiday at Mid-Ohio.
Formula One is back at Silverstone. 
NASCAR will be at Road America, possibly for the final time.
IMSA returns to Mosport, DPi, LMP3 and GTD only.
SRX returns to Stafford Springs.
Norisring is back in July for the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters.
European Le Mans Series will be at Monza.
Italy will be busy as Misano hosts the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup.
World Touring Car Cup heads west to Portugal for the Vila Real round.