Musings From the Weekend: How Do We Feel at the Start of the Season?

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Formula One had a party in London. Lewis Hamilton sounds happy. Max Verstappen and George Russell have buried the hatchet. It was a weekend of sweeps in Australia. Supercars has already had a photo finish. Cadillac looked quick. Atlanta was less of a mess than Daytona. Over 9.2 million people watched a hockey game, in which Canada won. IndyCar had a test, and a bunch of other news came out, as we are on the verge of the first race weekend of the season. Which leads to one question...

How Do We Feel at the Start of the Season?

I feel like this answer would have been different a week ago. 

A week ago, we would have been focusing on the commercials, the promotion from the new Fox deal, the booth assembled and the competition. Then last week happened, and a lot of rough news came out. 

From the perplexing plan to have no one with technical experience working on the next chassis and technical regulations, which now sounds less likely to happen in 2027 and the new goal is 2028 for its debut, to the news of Hy-Vee cutting back its sponsorship of the Iowa and Milwaukee events, to increased buzz Honda will be leaving the series after 2026, last week did not end on a high note for IndyCar. 

That's not what you are hoping for ahead of a season opener, but it is IndyCar and here we are. Never get too high. The ground is always on the verge of falling out from underneath you. 

But how does it look in total? A week ago, a month ago, everyone was doing backflips and victory laps as IndyCar commercials were regularly airing during NFL playoff and games and even the Super Bowl. The drumbeat was immense for IndyCar after a long offseason. It was getting exposure nearly two months before the first race of the season, and the key drivers were put forward. The Indianapolis 500 winner, the defending champion and the most popular driver. For someone who knew nothing about IndyCar and was seeing those commercials for the first time, they got the main points of the story. The rest can be picked up at the first race.

Fox's promotional effort is focused on the present and the future. Josef Newgarden, Álex Palou and Patricio O'Ward are winners in this moment and are going to be winners in the future. They aren't going anywhere, and Fox is pushing names that we expect to be around for the next decade, if not more. That is why there was no Scott Dixon nor Will Power regardless of their historical success and the history they could still make. Colton Herta will be around, but consistency has been his greatest weakness plus, Herta has not come close to winning the one race that really matters. Fox got the big hitters.

Beyond the promotions, the broadcast booth provided IndyCar with something familiar and new. Remaining in the booth will be Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe, broadcast partners for the previous three seasons and fan favorites, while Will Buxton will be the lead commentator. Buxton is new, but no stranger to IndyCar. He has long been a champion for the series and even worked a few races on pit lane with NBC Sports Network when the channel had both IndyCar and Formula One. 

Buxton was lead commentator for GP2, but it has not been his regular gig the last few seasons. What Buxton brings that other possible contenders did not bring was familiar to a new audience. Buxton is known from his participation in Drive to Survive. He is a young face that can spread IndyCar to people who do not know exist on a national and international level. If people do not know the series, Buxton can be that face to introduce them to something new. He can make it less frightening. It is a connection that otherwise did not exist.

Away from the racing, there were positives to find in this transition period for IndyCar. Looking to on the track, it is a typical IndyCar preseason and there are plenty of reasons to be excited. 

It is Álex Palou's championship to lose, but we know there are easily a half-dozen drivers who would not surprise us if they won the championship. From the three Team Penske drivers to Herta and O'Ward to Palou's teammate Dixon, there are plenty of worthy challengers. With how IndyCar is, maybe this is the year of a surprise. The same way we saw Palou come out of nowhere and become champion only four years ago, it could be Kyle Kirkwood's year or Christian Lundgaard's year. 

Last year ended on a high. There were better races than expected at Milwaukee and Nashville. Gateway had a great race though there was some controversy.  The introduction of the hybrid system was pretty smooth. There were some hiccups but nothing that diminished the results. 

Entering 2025, the racing isn't a concern. We will get a little more racing as Long Beach, Mid-Ohio, Iowa, Toronto and Nashville will be adding laps. At some of those tracks, it should make strategy a little more dynamic and open things up. The tire allocation is changing a bit. Besides the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Road America, every team with get five sets of alternate and primary tires instead of six primary sets and four alternate sets. 

Changes have also been made to the start and restart procedures to hopefully decrease the number of incidents we saw last year, notably on ovals. 

The right steps have been made, but it wouldn't be IndyCar if there wasn't some grander issue that was left unresolved and plenty of disgruntled team owners, drivers and personnel participating in the series. It is worse when it feels like the same problems for the last five or six years. 

Other than a new broadcast partner, some extra laps at a few events, and Doug Boles is now the series president, IndyCar on the eve of the 2025 season is not much different from IndyCar on the eve of the 2024. We are still not sure what the plan is for the next generation chassis or engine regulations or if the series can retain the engine manufacturers that are in place. The schedule is still a few races on the West Coast, no other race until Iowa and with nothing east of Toronto. But hey! At least Thermal Club is now a championship race and Arlington is coming in 2026. Just you wait until Arlington by golly!

The road to contentment was going to be long journey. It was not going to be reached in one offseason. Wallowing in disappointment will not make it any better. It should not overshadow the positive when it exists. We will see how far the new will take IndyCar. That excitement felt for the previous six weeks or so was genuine. The issues will remain and any solutions will come in time, as frustrating as that might be. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Canada, but did you know...

Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Cup race from Atlanta. Austin Hill won the Grand National Series race. Kyle Busch won the Truck race.

Cam Waters swept the Supercars races from Sydney Motorsports Park. 

Nicolò Bulega swept the World Superbike races from Phillip Island. Stefano Manzo and Tom Booth-Amos split the World Supersport races

Cooper Webb won the Supercross Triple Crown round from Arlington (6-1-1). Ken Roczen won the first race. Haiden Deegan won the 250cc round (1-1-2). Cole Davies won the third race. 

Coming Up This Weekend

Besides the IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg, the Road to Indy also opens in the Florida city.

The Qatar 1812 opens the FIA World Endurance Championship season. 

MotoGP continues the theme of season openers with a round in Buriram.

It is Daytona Bike Week and Supercross ventures south. 

NASCAR will run a different configuration at Circuit of the Americas.

Let's Look at the League - 2025 Season

We are a little more than a week from the 2025 IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg. While we have previewed every team and full-time driver, the start of the season re-ignites other extracurricular activities for the series, and for the seventh year, we are bringing back the League Format for the IndyCar Series.

In case you need a reminder...

Imagine the IndyCar season as any other sports league season. Teams are placed in conferences and each week of competition the teams go head-to-head against one another with one team coming out as the winner and the other being the loser. Each victory counts in the league standings with a playoff to determine the champion while the worst teams are relegated. Meanwhile, in the division below, teams are fighting to earn promotion into the top league. 

If you remember last year, I have good news for you. The format is the same. 

With the IndyCar grid remaining the same size, there was no point in trying to reinvent the wheel. Twenty-seven is an odd number to work with, literally and figuratively, and instead of exploring more formats and breakdowns, I am keeping it easy on myself. 

League One is still 16 teams, split into two conferences with a double round robin and no inter-conference play. The top four from each advance to the playoffs to decide a champion.

Fifth in each conference is guaranteed safety in League One for the following season. Sixth and seventh-place from each conference will enter the relegation playoff. The loser of that playoff will be relegated to League Two along with the automatically relegated teams that finished eighth in each conference. 

League Two remains 11 teams in a single round robin. After the round robin, the top two teams earn promotion to League One for the following season. The 11th-place team will be eliminated and the remaining eight entries will advance to the second phase.

The second phase will split the remaining eight entries into two groups where another round robin takes place. The top two from the groups will advance to the promotion playoff where the winner will earn the third and final promotion spot.

How does League One look this season?

Conference One

#10 Ganassi
#12 Penske
#5 McLaren
#2 Penske
#7 McLaren
#60 Meyer Shank
#28 Andretti
#15 RLLR

Conference Two

#26 Andretti
#3 Penske
#9 Ganassi
#27 Andretti
#14 Foyt
#45 RLLR
#21 ECR
#6 McLaren

Entering as defending champion is the #27 Andretti entry and it is paired in the same conference as last year's runner-up, the #9 Ganassi entry. Last year's semifinalists, the #12 Penske and #5 McLaren are both in the same conference. Quarterfinalists, the #10 Ganassi, #2 Penske, #26 Andretti and #3 Penske, are all evenly split across the conferences.

The #6 McLaren and #7 McLarens each were fifth in their respective conferences last year. The #15 RLLR and #45 RLLR entries each survived the relegation playoff as did the #28 Andretti. The #14 Foyt, #60 Meyer Shank and #21 ECR are all the promoted entries. The #21 ECR entry made it via the playoff.

Schedule

	Conference One	Conference Two
Week 1 (St. Petersburg)	#10 CGR vs. #15 RLLR	#26 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
	#12 Penske vs. #28 Andretti	#3 Penske vs. #21 ECR
	#5 McLaren vs. #60 MSR	#9 CGR vs. #45 RLLR
	#2 Penske vs #7 McLaren	#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
Week 2 (Thermal)	#10 CGR vs. #28 Andretti	#26 Andretti vs. #21 ECR
	#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR	#3 Penske vs. #6 McLaren
	#5 McLaren vs. #7 McLaren	#9 CGR vs. #14 Foyt
	#2 Penske vs. #60 MSR	#27 Andreti vs. #45 RLLR
Week 3 (Long Beach)	#10 CGR vs. #60 MSR	#26 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR
	#12 Penske vs. #7 McLaren	#3 Penske vs. #14 Foyt
	#5 McLaren vs. #15 RLLR	#9 CGR vs. #6 McLaren
	#2 Penske vs. #28 Andretti	#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR
Week 4 (Barber)	#10 CGR vs. #7 McLaren	#26 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
	#12 Penske vs. #60 MSR	#3 Penske vs. #45 RLLR
	#5 McLaren vs. #28 Andretti	#9 CGR vs. #21 ECR
	#2 Penske vs. #15 RLLR	#27 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
Week 5 (GPOI)	#10 CGR vs. #2 Penske	#26 Andretti vs. #27 Andretti
	#12 Penske vs. #5 McLaren	#3 Penske vs. #9 CGR
	#7 McLaren vs. #15 RLLR	#14 Foyt vs. #6 McLaren
	#60 MSR vs. #28 Andretti	#45 RLLR vs. #21 ECR
Week 6 (Indianapolis 500)	#10 CGR vs. #5 McLaren	#26 Andretti vs. #9 CGR
	#12 Penske vs. #2 Penske	#3 Penske vs. #27 Andretti
	#7 McLaren vs. #28 Andretti	#14 Foyt vs. #21 ECR
	#60 MSR vs. #15 RLLR	#45 RLLR vs. #6 McLaren
Week 7 (Detroit)	#10 CGR vs. #12 Penske	#26 Andretti vs. #3 Penske
	#5 McLaren vs. #2 Penske	#9 CGR vs. #27 Andretti
	#7 McLaren vs. #60 MSR	#14 Foyt vs. #45 RLLR
	#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR	#21 ECR vs. #6 McLaren
Week 8 (Gateway)	#10 CGR vs. #15 RLLR	#26 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
	#12 Penske vs. #28 Andretti	#3 Penske vs. #21 ECR
	#5 McLaren vs. #60 MSR	#9 CGR vs. #45 RLLR
	#2 Penske vs #7 McLaren	#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
Week 9 (Road America)	#10 CGR vs. #28 Andretti	#26 Andretti vs. #21 ECR
	#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR	#3 Penske vs. #6 McLaren
	#5 McLaren vs. #7 McLaren	#9 CGR vs. #14 Foyt
	#2 Penske vs. #60 MSR	#27 Andreti vs. #45 RLLR
Week 10 (Mid-Ohio)	#10 CGR vs. #60 MSR	#26 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR
	#12 Penske vs. #7 McLaren	#3 Penske vs. #14 Foyt
	#5 McLaren vs. #15 RLLR	#9 CGR vs. #6 McLaren
	#2 Penske vs. #28 Andretti	#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR
Week 11 (Iowa)	#10 CGR vs. #7 McLaren	#26 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
	#12 Penske vs. #60 MSR	#3 Penske vs. #45 RLLR
	#5 McLaren vs. #28 Andretti	#9 CGR vs. #21 ECR
	#2 Penske vs. #15 RLLR	#27 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
Week 12 (Iowa)	#10 CGR vs. #2 Penske	#26 Andretti vs. #27 Andretti
	#12 Penske vs. #5 McLaren	#3 Penske vs. #9 CGR
	#7 McLaren vs. #15 RLLR	#14 Foyt vs. #6 McLaren
	#60 MSR vs. #28 Andretti	#45 RLLR vs. #21 ECR
Week 13 (Toronto)	#10 CGR vs. #5 McLaren	#26 Andretti vs. #9 CGR
	#12 Penske vs. #2 Penske	#3 Penske vs. #27 Andretti
	#7 McLaren vs. #28 Andretti	#14 Foyt vs. #21 ECR
	#60 MSR vs. #15 RLLR	#45 RLLR vs. #6 McLaren
Week 14 (Laguna Seca)	#10 CGR vs. #12 Penske	#26 Andretti vs. #3 Penske
	#5 Mclaren vs. #2 Penske	#9 CGR vs. #27 Andretti
	#7 McLaren vs. #60 MSR	#14 Foyt vs. #45 RLLR
	#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR	#21 ECR vs. #6 McLaren

League Two

#8 Ganassi
#77 JHR
#66 MSR
#78 JHR
#20 ECR
#30 RLLR
#4 Foyt
#51 Coyne
#18 Coyne
#83 Prema
#90 Prema

The #8 Ganassi entry and the #11 Ganassi entry were the automatically relegated teams from League One in 2024. The #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing entry lost the relegation playoff and was sent down as well. 

As you know, with Chip Ganassi Racing downsizing to three cars and scuttling the #11 and #4 entries, both of those entrants are no longer in the league format. However, with the introduction of the two Prema entries, those spots are quickly filled and League Two remains at 11 teams.

Schedule

Week 1 (St. Petersburg)	#8 CGR vs. #51 Coyne
	#77 JHR vs. #18 Coyne
	#66 MSR vs. #4 Foyt
	#78 JHR vs. #20 ECR
	#30 RLLR vs. #83 Prema
Week 2 (Thermal)	#77 JHR vs. #30 RLLR
	#66 MSR vs. #20 ECR
	#78 JHR vs. #18 Coyne
	#4 Foyt vs. #90 Prema
	#51 Coyne vs. #83 Prema
Week 3 (Long Beach)	#8 CGR vs. #20 ECR
	#66 MSR vs. #30 RLLR
	#78 JHR vs. #90 Prema
	#4 Foyt vs. #83 Prema
	#51 Coyne vs. #18 Coyne
Week 4 (Barber)	#8 CGR vs. #66 MSR
	#77 JHR vs. #20 ECR
	#30 RLLR vs. #4 Foyt
	#51 Coyne vs. #90 Prema
	#18 Coyne vs. #83 Prema
Week 5 (GPOI)	#8 CGR vs. #4 Foyt
	#77 JHR vs. #83 Prema
	#66 MSR vs. #90 Prema
	#78 JHR vs. #30 RLLR
	#30 RLLR vs. #78 JHR
Week 6 (Indianapolis 500)	#8 CGR vs. #30 RLLR
	#77 JHR vs. #90 Prema
	#66 MSR vs. #18 Coyne
	#78 JHR vs. #51 Coyne
	#20 ECR vs. #4 Foyt
Week 7 (Detroit)	#8 CGR vs. #78 JHR
	#66 MSR vs. #77 JHR
	#20 ECR vs. #18 Coyne
	#4 Foyt vs. #51 Coyne
	#83 Prema vs. #90 Prema
Week 8 (Gateway)	#8 CGR vs. #77 JHR
	#66 MSR vs. #51 Coyne
	#78 JHR vs. #83 Prema
	#20 ECR vs. #30 RLLR
	#18 Coyne vs. #90 Prema
Week 9 (Road America)	#8 CGR vs. #18 Coyne
	#77 JHR vs. #51 Coyne
	#66 MSR vs. #83 Prema
	#78 JHR vs. #4 Foyt
	#30 RLLR vs. #90 Prema
Week 10 (Mid-Ohio)	#8 CGR vs. #83 Prema
	#77 JHR vs. #4 Foyt
	#66 MSR vs. #78 JHR
	#20 ECR vs. #90 Prema
	#30 RLLR vs. #18 Coyne
Week 11 (Iowa)	#8 CGR vs. #90 Prema
	#77 JHR vs. #78 JHR
	#20 ECR vs. #83 Prema
	#30 RLLR vs. #51 Coyne
	#4 Foyt vs. #18 Coyne

The second phase would begin with the second Iowa race before taking place at Toronto and Laguna Seca. Portland and Milwaukee will round out the promotion playoff. Portland and Milwaukee will also serve as the locations for the relegation playoff semifinals and final.

In League One, the playoffs will run over Portland, Milwaukee and Nashville.

We will keep an eye on the league sporadically over the 2025 season at key points as we approach the playoffs and settle who will be promoted and who will be relegated.

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

And we have made it. The final IndyCar team preview comes ten days before the first race commences from St. Petersburg. We end with the team that ended up on top in 2024. Chip Ganassi Racing took its fourth championship in five seasons. It was not the most dominating season for the team, but it was still consistent. 

Ganassi's makeup is a bit different this season as the charter agreement limits a team to three entries. Ganassi has contracted back to three cars, but despite being 40% smaller, the organization has not lost any strength.

At First Glance... Why should we expect anything different?

Ganassi has Scott Dixon and Álex Palou. Does it need anything else? 

These two drivers have combined to win four of the last five championships and five of the last seven championships. Palou continues to be remarkably consistent. Even in a season where he was not as clean as he was in his near-flawless 2023 season, he still won the championship with comfort. Dixon remains a reliable driver that will not put the car in harm's way nor will he be off his game for long. More times than not, Dixon can take a good car and make it great. 

Losing two teammates isn't going to hurt this duo. Kyffin Simpson is taking up space but not hindering these two champions. Dixon and Palou are going to run at the front and be two of the drivers to beat. 

We have seen Dixon win championships with one teammate, two teammates and three teammates. He has won championships surrounded by veterans and surrounded by inexperience. Palou won in his second season in IndyCar, his first year with a new organization. He has regularly defeated one of the best drivers in IndyCar history in equal equipment. He had a season where he never finished worse than eighth, and he did not let the introduction of hybrid systems slow him down. 

Why should we expect anything different than what we have seen for the last half-decade?

Ganassi is as good as Team Penske on every historic level, Ganassi is only about a 25-year younger team. We are not going to see Chip Ganassi Racing disappear due to some slight change. Everything has remained the same. Chassis, engine, tires, aero regulations, fuel, oxygen levels in the atmosphere. If everything is the same, expect the same result, and that is Chip Ganassi Racing being a force.

Even if Team Penske is rather clinical and ends up winning the championship, it will likely come after an admirable fight from Chip Ganassi Racing where it combines to win at least four or five races and it will still have two drivers in the top five of the championship. 

The Ganassi organization has won a race in 20 consecutive seasons. It is a stalwart in IndyCar. The earth is not going to fall out from underneath them. A bad season for Ganassi would be a significantly good season to eight of the other teams in IndyCar. 

A championship might go elsewhere, but whoever wins it will have to take it from the Ganassi group.

2024 Chip Ganassi Racing Review

Wins: 4 (Long Beach, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Detroit, Laguna Seca)

Poles: 3 (Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Laguna Seca, Mid-Ohio)

Championship Finishes: 1st (Álex Palou), 6th (Scott Dixon), 14th (Marcus Armstrong), 16th (Linus Lundqvist), 21st (Kyffin Simpson)

Kyffin Simpson - #8 Journie Rewards Honda

Numbers to Remember:

3: Top fifteen finishes in the first four races last season

2: Top fifteen finishes in the final 13 races last season

4: Top twenty starts last season

What does a championship season look like for him?

There was a running joke over some of these early predictions that the only way the likes of Devlin DeFrancesco or Sting Ray Robb could win the IndyCar championship would be if something catastrophic happened, and it whittled the IndyCar championship down to three cars involving those two and then Kyffin Simpson. 

This remains true for Simpson. Simpson can with the championship if it is a three-car championship and being the Chip Ganassi Racing driver is enough to defeat a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver and a Juncos Hollinger Racing driver. 

Let's face it, driving for Ganassi alone should be enough to put Simpson over the top of the other two drivers. Imagine if the entire Ganassi staff was focused on one car? Advantage Simpson in such a scenario.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

It wasn't the worst rookie season from Simpson in 2024. Some of his best results did come from others stumbling around him, but he was putting the car in a spot to finish in the top fifteen. For a good portion of the season, Simpson was not making mistakes and not getting into accidents. He did have a spell where he struggled and went over the limit to his detriment.  

Simpson was 21st in the drivers' championship, but his points total was only good enough for 25th in the entrants' championship. With two fewer Ganassi cars in house and a shuffling of crew, Simpson should do a little better, but a little will not look like much. 

A top ten finish or two would be a great gain. I don't think those finish will come based on speed. Those will come from misfortune of others while Simpson is having a good day. Cracking the top twenty should be the goal because he is driving for Chip Ganassi Racing and he will definitely have two teammates in the top ten of the championship and likely two teammates in the top five of the championship.

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda

Numbers to Remember:

6: Starts away from the all-time IndyCar record (currently on 402 starts)

297: Career top ten finishes

6,821: Career laps led

What does a championship season look like for him?

Dixon has done it six times. There is no script you can write for a Dixon championship season that does not already exist. Any fantasy you could write does not quite live up to what Dixon has done already. To season dominance, comeback titles and tiebreakers, Dixon has covered pretty much every possible story. 

Let's use history then. 

In Dixon's six championship seasons, he has done the following...

On average, had his first victory by the fourth race of the season...

Had his first podium finish by the third race of the season...

Won 3.833 races per season...

Stood on the podium 7.667 times...

Finished in the top five 10.333 times...

Finished in the top ten 12.833 times...

Scored 62.696% of the maximum points.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

With Dixon turning 45 years old this season, our attention is keen for any signs of slowing down. It has been anticipated, but every time we think it is near, Dixon flips the switch and shows he still has it. 

What has cost Dixon the last few seasons is one or two fluky results that send him down the championship.

Last season, he had the car fail while on the parade laps at Mid-Ohio and then was taken out on lap one at Portland. 

His only finish outside the top ten in 2023 was at Long Beach when contact with Patricio O'Ward took him out. In 2022, a pit lane speeding violation on his final pit stop took him from first in the Indianapolis 500 to 21st, his worst finish of the season, and in 2021 at Indianapolis, Dixon ran out of fuel coming to pit lane while leading on his second pit stop and it forced him to lose a lap on pit lane.

We haven't seen the results drop off because the pace has dropped off. Dixon's season comes down to a few bad days. However, we haven't seen him be the force that controls the championship either in five seasons. His is still doing better than most, but he has not consistently been the best the last few seasons. 

A victory or two is the minimum. Five or six podium finishes is the minimum. Eight or nine top five finishes is the minimum. That will put Dixon at least sixth in the championship. If he does better than the minimum in any of those categories it will raise his championship position.

Álex Palou - #10 DHL Honda

Numbers to Remember:

5: Drivers with four championships in IndyCar history

3: Drivers who have won three consecutive championships

93.919: Percentage of laps completed in his IndyCar career (10,241/10,904)

What does a championship season look like for him?

In the same vain, Palou has won three championships, half of Dixon's total, but enough to have a read on how Palou pulls out the ultimate prize. Palou has also won three titles in the last four seasons. Not much has changed between 2021 and now. The recipe that worked last year and the year before that and in 2021 will likely work this year as well. 

In Palou's three championship seasons, he has...

Taken 3.333 races for his first victory...

Took 1.667 races for his first podium finish...

Won 3.333 races per season...

Stood on the podium 7.667 times...

Finished in the top five 12.333 times...

Finished in the top ten 14 times...

Scored 62.913% of maximum points.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Palou has won consecutive championships and three titles in four seasons. It is realistic to expect a championship because we need to see someone beat Palou, and no one has been able to consistently do that. 

The one championship Palou did not win was the year Will Power started with five consecutive top five finishes, Palou did not win until the season finale, and there was only one repeat winner in the first eight races. 

That one slow start appears to be the outlier, and even then it wasn't that slow as Palou had three podium finishes in the first four races that season.

In each of his three championships, Palou won one of the first five races, had at least two podium finishes in the first five races and had at least three top five finishes in the first five races. Last year, Palou opened with five consecutive top five finishes, eight top five finishes in the first nine races, and 13 top five finishes in the first 15 races. If you have 13 top five finishes in the first 15 races, you have had a great season. 

Everything is on the table for Palou. This season could be better than last season. He only won twice last year with five podium finishes. Both those totals could double. If that is the case, we will be witnessing a little more IndyCar history.

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Dale Coyne Racing

Only two IndyCar team previews remains as we are within a fortnight of the 2025 IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg. Exactly 11 days from the first race, we are near the end and we now know the full entry list for the season opener as last week Dale Coyne Racing confirmed its second driver.

It will be a pairing of a veteran and a rookie, a past race winner and a competitive Indy Lights graduate. With these signings, Dale Coyne Racing will have 94 different starters in its 40-plus year history. Last season, Dale Coyne Racing did not have a single top ten finish despite having nine different drivers rotate through its two entries. 

At First Glance... At least we know the drivers

Who had this one coming? There is a reason why Dale Coyne Racing is one of the final team previews every year. I was fully expecting another year of open riffing on what should happen for a team that had made no announcements. Jacob Abel was announced rather early, and last week it was confirmed Rinus VeeKay would round out the lineup.

After a season of musical chairs, Coyne has brought in two respectable drivers who will be looking to make the most of a full season. 

For VeeKay, it keeps him on the grid after five consistent but unfulfilled season at Ed Carpenter Racing. 

For Abel, it is a chance at IndyCar after it appeared he would be shutout from the grid due to the increased competition for seats and the grid limit the charter system agreement set. 

It is two drivers who have a greater objective in mind. It isn't a driver who has scrapped together enough funds for a race or two or three. It is not someone who has been out of open-wheel racing for more than a decade getting a chance to race an IndyCar with no real plans of turning it into a full-time gig. These are two drivers that want to be in IndyCar and are looking for more than what they have now. Coyne is a place, but it is not the place either want to be long-term.

To be fair, Coyne is no one's place for long. 

Both drivers are hoping this can be a springboard. In VeeKay's case, it is back to a competitive seat that can have him fighting at the front. Abel is hoping that this can be the successful first act that leads to a lengthy IndyCar career. Both are motivated and have sights beyond 2025 and this team. Coyne can live with that. The team knows its place in the series.

The concern for these drivers is DCR has been taking steps back for a number of years now. It was not close to competitive last year. Jack Harvey isn't the greatest driver in the world, but he is good enough to score respectable results. He couldn't break the top ten. At no point did Coyne have it click and the speed show up for both its entries to run competitive. At every race, it was fighting from the back and not making up much ground. Dale Coyne Racing was responsible for the only car to fail to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 last May.

That is the limit VeeKay and Abel will face in 2025. For as hard as they may try, the limit may be reached sooner than they wish. This entire season will be about pushing beyond that limit and hoping it is enough to impress others.

2024 Dale Coyne Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 13th (Barber, Mid-Ohio, Nashville)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 13th (Milwaukee II)

Championship Finishes: 25th (Jack Harvey), 29th (Katherine Legge), 31st (Toby Sowery), 34th (Luca Ghiotto), 38th (Tristan Vautier), 40th (Colin Braun), 41st (Hunter McElrea)

Rinus VeeKay- #18 Dale Coyne Racing Honda

Numbers to Remember:

4: Seasons with at least one top five finish

47: Races since VeeKay’s most recent podium finish (third at Barber in 2022)

13.9375: Career average finish in 80 IndyCar starts

What does a championship season look like for him?

Dale Coyne Racing having a time machine, and bringing the pace from 2017 and 2018 into 2025 for VeeKay. All of a sudden, VeeKay goes from being on the fringe of the top twenty to a top ten car and pushing for more. 

The season would start relatively slow, finishing in the top ten but not showing signs as the driver to beat. The Indianapolis 500 is where VeeKay shines and the stunning speed has the Dutchman at the front. After appearing to have taken a step back from Ed Carpenter Racing, VeeKay moves forward with Dale Coyne Racing, and he finishes first in one of the most stunning results in the 109 editions of the race.

One victory changes everything. From a feel-good story to Cinderella, VeeKay continues his consistency of top ten finishes but he wins Gateway and picks up podium finishes in Road America and Mid-Ohio. He wins one of the Iowa races and finishes in the top five in the other. He wins Laguna Seca, which convinces people a championship is not only a dream, but a possibility. Another podium finish in Milwaukee and a victory in Nashville cap off the improbable.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

What firepower Coyne brings to the track will determine how VeeKay does in the championship. VeeKay has finished between 12th and 14th in every season he has raced in IndyCar. That is the baseline based on what Ed Carpenter Racing provided and what VeeKay could do with it. Dale Coyne Racing is a step back. It is realistic to expect a step back. 

VeeKay will find a way to get into the top ten, but it will likely be a rare occasion. Those will be good days, but most days will be fights to be respectable. He should be able to achieve that occasional, but there will be a few races where he will not be able to pull this car into the top half of the field. 

Considering that the two DCR cars ended up 26th and 27th in the entrants' championship out of 27 full-time cars, this team can only move up. VeeKay should pick up the pieces and put this entry into a Leader Circle spot. He can crack the top twenty, but it will be difficult for him to break into the top 15 or 16.

Jacob Abel - #51 Abel Construction Honda

Numbers to Remember:

42: Indy Lights starts

30: Indy Lights starts for Abel to get his first career victory

71.42: Percentage of Abel’s Indy Lights podium finishes came last season (Ten out of 14) 

What does a championship season look like for him?

Pretty much identical to what VeeKay's hypothetical championship season looks like. Dale Coyne Racing finding speed it has really only had once in its history and Abel's skill making a massive leap in development from Indy Lights to IndyCar despite having seldom seat time testing in the preseason. 

Top tens are a good place for a rookie to start. Each race gets a little better for Abel. Top tens slowly become top five finishes. With each race, he grows in confidence and after eight consecutive top ten finishes to open the season, Abel's first career victory does at Road America. From there, he continues running at the front and getting a few more top five finishes.

It is a championship season built on remarkable consistency the likes of Tony Kanaan and Álex Palou. He wins at Laguna Seca and Portland, and he ends the season having completed every lap with 17 top ten finishes in 17 races.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Far fewer than 17 top ten finishes. 

Abel had good consistency in Indy Lights, and he grew slowly, improving over every season. While he was good in Indy Lights, it will require a higher level for him to be competitive in IndyCar. Plenty of Indy Lights drivers have fizzled out in IndyCar driving for better teams than DCR.

This will be a season where results will be harder to come by but as the season goes along, Abel should feel more comfortable and be improving. Top ten finishes will be asking for a lot considering the team he is driving for, but he should be pushing for the top fifteen more as the season goes along.

However, breaking into the top twenty is difficult to imagine, and Abel is likely to finish third among the three rookies on the 2025 grid. 

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.

Musings From the Weekend: Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

William Byron would his second consecutive Daytona 500 after starting the final lap in ninth-place. It is rarely satisfying. Cautions are rather subjective, at least when to call one. A few championships, and Le Mans invitations, were determined in Abu Dhabi. More MotoGP testing took place in Buriram. Formula E debuted pit boost in its first visit to Jeddah. Supercross keeps losing riders. The IndyCar grid is set with the season opener less than two weeks away, but the biggest news in IndyCar last week was not a driver announcement. It was an executive change.

Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

In a surprising announcement, Doug Boles was named IndyCar president last Tuesday as Penske Entertainment made a a few changes ahead of the 2025 season. 

Boles takes over from Jay Frye, who held the position for a decade. Frye has left IndyCar's front office entirely. 

Mark Sibla was named senior vice president of competition and operation with Kyle Novak taking over as vice president of officiating and race control. Alex Damron became the chief marketing officer for the series while Louis Kissinger was promoted to general manager of Indianapolis Motor Speedway operations. 

The big news was Boles, who will remain president of Indianapolis Motor Speedway while taking on the new role within the IndyCar Series. Boles has been running the Speedway since 2013, and he has been a highly celebrated leader of the circuit over his entire time at the helm. Boles oversaw the 100th Indianapolis 500, which took place in front of a sold out crowd and had the television blackout lifted in the Indianapolis-area. Boles has turned the Grand Prix of Indianapolis into an outstanding opening event for the mont of May. The Speedway bolstered the Indianapolis 500 weekend with the Snake Pit and Legends Day concerts under Boles tenured, and this isn't even mentioning the expansion of the facility to include a 1/5th-mile dirt track and an increase in sports car races on the road course. 

Boles has orchestrated events away from motorsports at the track, notably last year when the Solar Eclipse passed over central Indiana, and he managed to use the track during the pandemic as a community hub whether it be for food donations, school graduation ceremonies or a vaccination location.  

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway has flourished under Doug Boles' leadership, and Boles has made it his mission to be the face of this facility that has stood for over a century. He has been engaging and is not afraid to show off more of the track, whether that be in person or in YouTube video series.  When it comes to looking for someone to lead the IndyCar Series, there are not many better options out there than Boles, who has been around the series for nearly 30 years and he was previously a co-owner in Panther Racing. 

However, with this announcement should come an announcement not too far down the road that Boles will only be the IndyCar president and it will be time to let someone else run Indianapolis Motor Speedway. 

IndyCar needs someone dedicated to that cause, especially as it faces the prospects of introducing a new chassis nearly a decade after it was originally planned and it tries to increase manufacturer participation. This is also coming off the heels of a new broadcast deal that has been rather positive for IndyCar, and the first race has not even been run yet. The series is a full-time jobs as is the Speedway. They are two roles that require two people. 

It is honorable and understandable thinking Boles is the best for each, but that is not how the business should operate. At some point, one will be shortchanged for the other. The responsibilities will pile up to the moon. It will be more than any one person should tackle. Running IMS might be Boles' dream job, but if he wants to run the series, it is time to let that dream go or let someone take charge of the series. 

Let's throw Boles a bone. There is not much the IndyCar president must do between now and the Indianapolis 500, and with his late assignment to this role as series president, he can wear both hats through the Indianapolis 500, but come May 26, someone else should be running Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

It does IndyCar no benefit to have Boles worried about traffic plans and suite catering for the Brickyard 400. IMSA race program cover imagery should not be on the mind of the IndyCar president. Track watering equipment for the BC39 can be someone else's problem. 

IndyCar needs a leader who is focused on IndyCar. 

Boles is an exciting hire for the known. He knows the series. He knows the races, the teams, the drivers, manufacturers and sponsors. He can keep everyone happy and understand what is concerning them. We have seen him attract more people to Indianapolis Motor Speedway and take a strong race and make it stronger. The Indianapolis 500 was doing fine before him, and Boles is leaving the Indianapolis 500 in an exceptionally better position. It is hard to imagine how that would have been possible for a race that was already drawing nearly 260,000 spectators on a yearly basis. 

It will be a test for Boles to grow the series. There are certain things that work for a racetrack that will not work on a national stage. It isn't only about drawing people to the track in person but getting people to watch at home and make IndyCar an interest in their life. IndyCar's hurdle is growing viewership who are regularly aware of when the next race will take place, where it will be shown and making it a can't-miss event in their lives.

IndyCar has a base of about a million people, but that base has not really grown compared to 20 years ago. Everyone is frustrated that the audience balloons to five-times its normal size for one weekend in May. That size isn't practically over all 17 races, but 40-50% of that on a regular basis should be the long-term goal. It will not happen overnight, but Boles is the man in charge and for IndyCar to reach that next level, it will take someone who is committed to the goal for the foreseeable future. That commitment should be to the series and the series only. 

Change is hard, and we love Boles leading Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but if he wants to lead IndyCar, it is time to turn the page and hand the keys to 16th & Georgetown to the next steward. It is time for someone else to shepherd over the greatest race in the world the same way it is Boles time to lead the IndyCar Series into the future.

Champions From the Weekend

The #25 Algarve Pro Racing Oreca of Malthe Jakobsen, Michael Jensen and Valerio Rinicella clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with finishes of first and fourth in Abu Dhabi

The #25 Bretton Motorsports Ligier of Theodor Jensen and Jens Reno Møller clinched the ALMS LMP3 championship with finishes of second and third. 

The #10 Manthey Racing Porsche of Antares Au, Klaus Bachler and Joel Sturm clinched the ALMS GT championship with finishes of second and first. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about William Byron and some champions, but did you know...

Jesse Love won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Daytona. Corey Heim won the Truck Series race after Parker Kligerman's truck failed post-race inspection. 

The #15 RLR Sport Ligier of Nick Adcok, Ian Aguilera and Chris Short won in LMP3 in the first 4 Hours of Abu Dhabi. The #92 Manthey EMA Porsche of Richard Lietz, Ryan Hardwick and Riccardo Pera won in GT.

The #83 AF Corse Oreca of François Perrodo, Alessio Rovera and Matthieu Vaxivìere won the second 4 Hours of Abu Dhabi. The #49 High Class Racing Liger of Anders Fjordbach, Thomas Kiefer and Mark Patterson won in LMP3.

Maximilian Günther and Oliver Rowland split the Jeddah ePrix. 

Elfyn Evans Rally Sweden.

Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Detroit. Levi Kitchen won the 250cc race. 

Coming Up This Weekend

Supercars opens its season at Sydney Motorsports Park. 

World Superbike opens its season at Phillip Island. 

NASCAR is in Atlanta.

Supercross is in Arlington. 

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

For 37 of the next 38 weekends, the NASCAR Cup Series will be in competition, as the 2025 season is about to begin from Daytona International Speedway. 

Qualifying is already complete. We know the front row for the Daytona 500, and two of the four Open entries have clinched a starting spot based on their qualifying speed. Tonight, the two qualifying races will set the remainder of the grid for NASCAR's most prestigious race. 

This weekend is familiar, but this season will see a few new things in the Cup Series. New tracks, new broadcast partners, a new tournament, and a new bonus points for fastest lap, the 2025 Cup season will see a variety of changes that NASCAR is becoming known for in the 2020s. 

Daytona 500 qualifying is compelte. We know the front row for the Daytona 500, and the two fastest Open entries have clinched their spots in the field.

Schedule 

Daytona plays host to the season opener for another season and Atlanta will be the second race for the second consecutive season. The first change we will see is in Texas with Circuit of the Americas in Austin moving up to March 2, and the track configuration will be different. Instead of using the full 3.426-mile circuit, NASCAR will run the 2.356-mile national circuit, which was famously used for Supercars only visit to the track in 2013. 

Austin will kick off the Southwestern swing as Phoenix follows on March 9 and Las Vegas will run on March 16. After that three-race stretch, the series will return to Florida as Homestead-Miami Speedway returns to March. Homestead previously had a two-year stretch when it was not in the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. Martinsville closes March with a 400-lap race on the 30th. 

Darlington's spring race moves to April 6 after running in May the previous five seasons. Bristol will be the following week before the Easter break on April 20, the only off-weekend during the entire 2025 Cup season. 

NASCAR returns to competition on April 27 at Talladega before Texas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway takes the Cup Series into the All-Star Weekend. North Wilkesboro remains the All-Star Race host for a third consecutive season. 

The Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte Motor Speedway remains on Memorial Day weekend on the night of May 25. Nashville moves up to June 1 and that will also be a night race. Michigan's lone race will be June 8, the first time NASCAR has visited the Irish Hills in June since 2019. 

For the first time since 1958, the NASCAR Cup Series will have an international championship race as Mexico City's Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez will host the Cup Series on June 15. The Mexico City circuit previously hosted NASCAR's second division from 2005 to 2008. One week later, NASCAR will race at Pocono.

The combined results after Michigan, Mexico City and Pocono will determine the draw for NASCAR's first-ever in-season tournament. Over five races, 32 drivers will be paired head-to-head in a bracket. Each race will see the drivers compete with the best finisher progressing to the next round. 

The in-season tournament begins with NASCAR's return to Atlanta on June 28. The round of 16 will be the Chicago street race on July 6. Sonoma hosts the quarterfinals on July 13 before Dover hosts the semifinals on July 20. The NASCAR in-season tournament champion will be decided at the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. 

Once the in-season tournament is complete, there will be four rounds remaining in the regular season. Iowa moves to August 3 for its second Cup weekend. Watkins Glen returns to August after one season in the playoffs. Richmond will host a night race on August 16 before Daytona closes out the regular season with a 400-mile race on the night of August 23.

The Southern 500 returns as the playoff opener on August 31 with Gateway moving into the playoffs for the first time on September 7. Bristol closes out round one on September 13. 

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and it will host the opening race of the round of 12 on September 21. Kansas drops to the fifth race of the playoffs on September 28. The Charlotte Motor Speedway ends the second round on October 5.

The semifinal round begins at Las Vegas on the evening of October 12. Talladega drops into the semifinal round on October 19, the latest a Talladega race has ever been held in the championship. The final four decider remains at Martinsville on October 26 with the 2025 season finale set for November 2 at Phoenix.

Chartered Teams

Ross Chastain - #1 Busch Beer/Moose Fraternity/Kubota/Jockey Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2021)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Decent. Trackhouse did well last year even if it was not quite match its 2023 output that put the #1 team in the final four. Chastain and company took chances last year banking on a victory that did not come until he was already out of the playoffs. Leading what is now a three-car team, Trackhouse is going to make a playoff push. The mistakes of last year will not be repeated. If they are, things will look the same.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Chastain won at Kansas last year, but he also ran particularly well on the road courses with top five finish's at Watkins Glen and Sonoma, and another top ten in Austin. 

Austin Cindric - #2 Menards/Discount Tires/Keystone Light Ford

Team: Team Penske
2024 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2022)

2025 Playoff Prospects: For a team that has won the championship in three consecutive seasons, Cindric is in a good place. It is also a team that struggled for results last year until the playoffs. Cindric was at the right place at the right time when teammate Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel on the final lap at Gateway. Without, Cindric isn't in the playoffs. Something similar feels like it will be necessary in 2025.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For all the thoughts that it would be the road courses, Cindric's record is not great on the road courses in this generation of car. 

Cindric qualified second for the Daytona 500, and this will be his fourth consecutive year starting inside the top six for the Daytona 500.

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/Winchester/BetMGM/Dow/Titan Risk Solutions Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 32nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)

2025 Playoff Prospects: In the last two seasons, Dillon has finished 29th and 32nd in the championship. He might have won at Richmond, but his antics to pull off the victory led to NASCAR discrediting it toward a playoff position. It was still his only top five finish and he ended 2024 with only five top ten finishes. Richard Childress Racing might not be that good, but it isn't that bad either. It would take something special for Dillon to make the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Even without the penalty, Richmond is one of Dillon's better tracks as he has seven top ten finishes in 21 starts. 

Noah Gragson - #4 MillerTech/Zep/Rush Truck Centers Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 9th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Three teams in three years, Gragson is at a Front Row Motorsports group that had surprising spurts at speed. FRM can produce good results. Consistency will be the question. Gragson did better with Stewart-Haas Racing than in his partial season at Legacy Motor Club. There will be much work to do to break into the top twenty. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: With the speed Front Row Motorsports showed in 2024, Gragson must feel good about Daytona and Talladega.

Kyle Larson - #5 HendrickCars.com/Valvoline Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Excellent. A lock. It isn't a matter of if Larson will win a race but when and how many. The real question for Larson is if he can win the regular season championship. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. He is going to win multiple times. It is more of what discipline will he not win on? He can, and likely will, win on them all. 

Possible Milestones: Larson is one victory away from becoming the 30th driver with at least 30 Cup victories. Larson is also 744 laps led away from becoming the 22nd driver with 10,000 laps led in a career.

Brad Keselowski - #6 Castrol/BuildSubmarines.com/Fastenal/Consumer Cellular/Solomon Plumbing/Kroger/Esperion Therapeutics Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Good. Keselowki made it last year and RFK Racing made a big stride last season. Another stride will be tough to achieve, especially since Keselowski isn't even the best driver in this team. He should make it, though he could be on the bubble and closer to missing than he would like.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Keselowski won at Darlington last year, but he ran well on the intermediate tracks with top five finishes at Texas, Charlotte, and even Gateway. 

Possible Milestone: Keselowski is four victories away from becoming the 21st driver with at least 40 Cup victories. 

Justin Haley - #7 Celsius/Gainbridge/Fraternal Order of Eagles Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Spire Motorsports has made gains, and Haley has shown good speed, but the likelihood he will be good enough to make it on points is a stretch. He can put himself in a spot to win at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. Outside of that, the points are not going to be there for Haley to make it. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Haley is in the Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta group, but he has also had good runs at Darlington the last two years.

Kyle Busch - #8 3CHI/Cheddars/Lucas Oil/Bank OKZ/BetMGM/Rebel Bourbon/Zone Premium Nicotine Pouches Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Last year is still a bit of a stunner that Busch did not make the playoffs and went winless for the first time in his Cup career. It is Kyle Busch. He can pull off one race. If Austin Dillon can win a Richmond race out of nowhere, though after taking out two cars in one corner, Busch can capitalize when things click. However, RCR is not in a great place. We are a long way away from February 2023 when Busch won in his second start with the team. He could be on the edge of making it on points.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: No Busch victory would be a surprise. At this point though, it feels like Busch's next victory will be a plate race or a driver's track like Dover or Darlington or Bristol.

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Llumar/Kelley Blue Book/UniFirst/Amazon Prime Video Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2021)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Elliott should make it. All of the Hendrick Motorsports cars should. Elliott has shown he can consistently score points and also pick up some good results. He will be there and likely be in the top eight in points when the regular season is over. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He won at Texas last year, but that is his only victory in the last two seasons. He had some great runs on the short tracks with top five finishes in both Martinsville races, top tens in both Bristol and Richmond races, and a third in the inaugural Iowa race. 

Possible Milestone: Elliott is one victory away from becoming the 44th driver with at least 20 Cup victories

Ty Dillon - #10 Grizzly Nictoine Pouches/Sea Best Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (22nd in the NASCAR Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Dillon makes the playoffs if he wins one of the plate races or he is in the right spot if there is a rainstorm. For almost a decade, Dillon has performed to the point that he is now failing up. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta.

Denny Hamlin - #11 Sport Clips/National Debt Relief/King's Hawaiian Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Hamlin should be there. Joe Gibbs Racing did not have a stellar end last season, but Hamlin figures out a way to win multiple times even when the team is not performing at its highest level.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Really anywhere, but we know how well Hamlin runs at Richmond, Martinsville, Bristol, Pocono, Kansas. He is also a three-time Daytona 500 winner.

Possible Milestone: Hamlin is 14 starts away from the 700-start milestone.

Ryan Blaney - #12 Menards/Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmor/Wurth/Discount Tire/Dent Wizard/Wabash Ford

Team: Team Penske
2024 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Team Penske is going to get Blaney in the playoffs. It might not be the greatest regular season, but Team Penske will have its half-dozen weekends where it is phenomenal and Blaney will win one of those. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It appears Martinsville and Phoenix are going to be good bets for Blaney success. 

Possible Milestone: Blaney is 730 laps led away from 5,000 laps led in a Cup career.

A.J. Allmendinger - #16 Celsius/LeafFilter Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (3rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2009, 2017)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Would it surprise you if Allmendinger is 16th in points and he sneaks in by fewer than a half-dozen points? No. Would it surprise you if Allmendinger won at Austin and Watkins Glen? No. Would it surprise you if Allmendinger was 22nd in points after the regular season with no victories, two top five finishes and five top ten results? No. He could make it, but he is equally as likely to not make it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The road courses lead the list, but Allmendinger could put together an exceptional run at Martinsville, and he has top ten finishes in his last four Daytona 500 starts dating back to 2017.

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol Edge/BuildSubmarines.com/Esperion Therapeutics/Kroger Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Buescher ended up on the wrong side of a Harrison Burton victory at Daytona and Chase Briscoe victory at Darlington in the final two regular season races last year. He then won two races into the playoffs. Buescher should win one of the first 26 races. That should get him into the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Buescher is a sleeper on road courses even though he won at Watkins Glen last year. His short track form is also rather dangerous.

Chase Briscoe - #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2022)

2025 Playoff Prospects: You would think better than last year moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, but Gibbs has not won since Loudon in June 2024. The team went the entire second half of the season winless. That likely will not last for long in 2025, but Gibbs had a shaky end to 2024. The team could take a dip, which might be bad timing for Briscoe.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Short tracks. Briscoe already has a Phoenix victory. He may be looking forward to Martinsville and Loudon more now that he is at Gibbs.

Briscoe won pole position for the Daytona 500 in his first start for Joe Gibbs Racing. It is Toyota's first pole position in the Daytona 500, and it Joe Gibbs Racing's second Daytona 500 pole position, its first since Bobby Labonte won it in 1998 driving a Pontiac.

Christopher Bell - #20 DeWalt/Rheem/Interstate Batteries/Yahoo! Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2023-24)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Bell was one of the best drivers in 2024, and he carried Gibbs in the playoffs only to fall short of making the championship four. Bell will have the speed to push for the top spot in the series. He is going to win multiple races, and he could be the man to beat. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Plenty of tracks. It is almost a case of where do we think Bell cannot win. The plate tracks have not been kind to Bell.

Josh Berry - #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane/PPG Ford

Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 27th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 25th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: For the last three seasons the Wood Brothers have been in a rough patch. We know this can be a playoff team. Berry should make it more competitive, especially on short tracks, but it is a tough bunch to breakthrough to get from 27th to the top 16. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Berry could be looking at better opportunities for victories on the short tracks, and that includes the likes of Gateway and Darlington.

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil/Hunt Brother's Pizza/AAA Insurance Ford

Team: Team Penske
2024 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Logano will be in the playoffs. He will get his two or three victories in a season. If he times them right, he could be champion, even if he doesn't look that threatening for the first 32 weeks of the season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is Logano. Pick you track, he can win there.

Possible Milestone: Logano is four victories away from becoming the 21st driver with at least 40 Cup victories. 

Bubba Wallace - #23 McDonald's/Columbia/U.S. Air Force/Leidos/Chumba Casino Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 18th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018, 2022)

2025 Playoff Prospects: On the fence. There is a world where 23XI Racing and Toyota are finding speed and Wallace is able to turn it into a victory at a mile-and-a-half track. There is a world where Wallace is good, gets some top ten finishes, but he isn't fantastic, a few bad races knock him down the order, and he finds himself on the outside like last year.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Wallace had some close calls at Texas recently. He has had good runs at Michigan. Last year, he ran well at Darlington. Plus, he has done well at Daytona and Talladega.

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Raptor/Valvoline/Liberty University/HP Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Byron won early last year, went quiet, and then made noise and a championship four run. Again, he will be there, but it is a matter of what he does once he gets there. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In each of the previous two seasons, Byron has won on an road course, short oval and plate track, and that isn't counting all the top fives he scored last year on intermediate circuits.

Todd Gilliland - #34 Love's Travel Stops/Carl Ruedebusch/A&W Restaurants/Grillo's Pickles Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2023)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Not everyone can make the playoffs. Gilliland made an improvement last year. However, it will likely take an unexpected victory in a race where Gilliland really wasn't the man to beat to make the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta. 

Riley Herbst - #35 Monster Energy/Chumba Casino Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (7th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019, 2021)

2025 Playoff Prospects: In 175 starts in NASCAR's second division, Herbst won three times and he finished in the top ten in just under half those races. The Cup Series is better. He has two tough teammates to beat and then about 33 other drivers. If he can crack the top twenty it will be a successful season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Phoenix was one of Herbst's better tracks at the second division. 

Possible Milestone: Car #35 has never won a NASCAR Cup Series race.

Zane Smith - #38 Speedy Cash/TitleMax/Benebone Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 30th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2023-24)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Smith didn't have a great 2024 season with a decent Spire outfit. Front Row Motorsports is good. He has to act least challenge his teammates and shoot to be second in the three-car outfit. The playoffs feel like a stretch, but he won his share of Daytona Truck races. Perhaps he snags a playoff spot early.  

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona or Talladega and I guess Atlanta.

Cole Custer - #41 Haas Automation/HaasTooling.com Ford

Team: Haas Factory Team
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2nd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2021)

2025 Playoff Prospects: It is one of the few single-car teams in the Cup Series built off the remnants of Stewart-Haas Racing. Custer's first stint in the Cup Series was good. He won in his rookie season at Kentucky in 2020, but he could not establish great consistency and become a regular threat. There does not feel like a reason to expect different this time around. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Custer has good track records at Pocono and Dover in the second division. 

John Hunter Nemechek - #42 Dollar Tree/Family Dollar/Mobil 1/Albertson's Toyota

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2024 Championship Finish: 34th 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Legacy Motor Club's move to Toyota did not yield much different in 2024 compared to 2023. Nemechek will have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs. It really comes down to getting lucky.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Put Nemechek in the Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta group.

Erik Jones - #43 AdventHealth/Dollar Tree/FamilyDollar/Allegiant Toyota

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2024 Championship Finish: 28th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Jones has a better shot than his teammate Nemechek. Jones has pulled off the surprising victory before and runs well at difficult racetracks. Jones isn't going to make it on points. It will require winning a race.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: As long as Darlington is on the schedule, Jones has a shot.

Tyler Reddick - #45 Monster Energy/McDonald's/Jordan Brand/Chumba Casino Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019, 2021)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Reddick is a lock for the playoffs. Like so many others, it is a matter of how far can he go. Last year, Reddick was terrific but could not close it out with a championship. He led the way for Toyota, something a non-Joe Gibbs Racing has not done since the days of Martin Truex, Jr. at Furniture Row Racing. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There are a great number of circuits Reddick can win at. One that he has yet to conquer in the Cup Series is Darlington. That is due to change at some point. 

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 SunnyD Chevrolet

Team: Hyak Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2023)

2025 Playoff Prospects: It might not be a new team in terms of the building, but it is a new team in name and it has lost a major sponsor. Hyak Motorsports' first days are a period of transition. Stenhouse, Jr. can win at Daytona and Talladega. He just won at Talladega in October. He has a shot, but a slimmer one than most.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. 

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Bowman is either about to be fired or he is going to win three races and people will think he is about to be fired. Bowman finds a way to pull off a victory or two and that will put him in the playoffs. He can hold his own against the more celebrated Hendrick teammates.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He can really win anywhere. Eight victories at eight different circuits and only two are similar (Chicagoland and Las Vegas). The rest are a two-mile oval (Fontana), Richmond, Dover, Pocono, Martinsville and the Chicago street course.

Cody Ware - #51 Jacob Companies Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 36th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 14th (2023)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Harrison Burton won a race last year. Ware has a shot. He isn't going to be worthy of it, but it could happen... and then he would finish 16th in the championship and that will be in the record books forever.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta.

Ty Gibbs - #54 Interstate Batteries/Monster Energy/SiriusXM Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 17th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Going into 2024, Gibbs looked on the precipice of his first career victory. His regular season started promising. His season ended on a downslide with five finishes of 30th or worse and only three top ten finishes in the final 16 races. Gibbs should get there, but his second half form is worrying.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gibbs' road course form is sneaky good. He had some good runs at Bristol in two seasons in the Cup Series. He maybe should have won Darlington last year.

Ryan Preece - #60 Kroger/Build Submarines/Castrol/Mohawk Northeast/Fastenal Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 26th 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2021)

2025 Playoff Prospects: This should be Preece's best chance of making the playoffs. He could be a contender on short tracks. Preece has never finished better than 23rd in the championship. He could be on his way for a personal best season. Playoffs is practical, but it will require some work.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: One must think it is a place like Martinsville, Richmond or Bristol. Iowa fits as well.

Michael McDowell - #71 GoBowling.com/B'laster/Workforce Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: We know McDowell can pick up a surprise victory on a few different track disciplines. He has moved to Spire, which showed competitiveness last season. McDowell might not do enough to contend on points, but one good race is not unthinkable.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There are nine circuits that McDowell should feel good about, the six road courses and then Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta. He has more opportunities than you would first think.

Carson Hocevar - #77 Zeigler Auto Group/Delaware Life/Gainbrige/Premier Security/MINER Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 40th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: The reigning rookie of the year was a surprise 21st in the championship last year. He will need to take a step forward and his teammates got stronger this season. The gap on points will be a little bit too much to overcome. It will be down to winning one race.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hocevar won at Texas and Homestead in the Truck Series. He had top ten finishes at those tracks last year in the Cup Series. 

Shane van Gisbergen - #88 WeatherTech/Red Bull Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (12th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2025 Playoff Prospects: High since there are five road and street course races in the regular season. Van Gisbergen has the speed. If he can avoid mistakes not catch any unfortunate breaks, van Gisbergen can win and secure a playoff spot. If he doesn't win a road course race, van Gisbergen's playoff hopes are near zilch. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is the road courses.

Daniel Suárez - #99 Freeway Insurance/Worldwide Express/Quaker State/Kubota/Choice Privileges Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: 12th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2023)

2025 Playoff Prospects: If it wasn't for a victory in Atlanta, the second race of the season, Suárez would have been on the outside of a playoff spot. The cars can be good but the results do not always quite get there with Suárez. He will be a fringe contender.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Suárez has finished second, first and second in the last three Atlanta races.

Non-Chartered Teams

Corey LaJoie - #01 DuraMax/Take 5 Oil Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 33rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: LaJoie will run a handful of races for Rick Ware Racing this season while also being a member of Amazon Prime's broadcast team.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is undetermined what LaJoie's races will be after Daytona.

Justin Allgaier - #40 Traveller Whiskey Chevrolet

Team: JR Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (1st in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2014)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Allgaier will be defending his championship in NASCAR's second division with JR Motorsports. This will be JR Motorsports' first attempt at a Cup race.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There will be plenty of races for Allgaier to win a division below this one.

J.J. Yeley - #44 NY Racing Team Chevrolet

Team: NY Racing Team
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (39th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2013)

2025 Playoff Prospects: It is unclear how many races NY Racing Team will attempt this season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, I guess.

Martin Truex, Jr. - #56 Bass Pro Shops Toyota

Team: TRICON Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)

2025 Playoff Prospects: At the moment, Truex, Jr. is only attempting the Daytona 500, and he has locked himself into the race after being the fastest Open entry in qualifying. He has expressed interest in running a few races, but the actual total is unknown, and there is no signs it will be more than one.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: I sense it is the Daytona 500 or bust for Truex, Jr. this year.

Possible Milestone: If Truex, Jr. were to win the Daytona 500, it would come in his 21st "500" start, the most before winning the event.

Anthony Alfredo - #62 Fortify Building Solutions Chevrolet

Team: Beard Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (15th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2024)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Alfredo ran a few races with Beard Motorsports last season, but he is only confirmed for Daytona at this moment.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Alfredo moves to the #42 Chevrolet for Young's Motorsports in NASCAR's second division this season. 

Chandler Smith - #66 Veterans Ranch Ford

Team: Garage 66
2024 Championship Finish: N/A (5th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2025 Playoff Prospects: Smith was a late change for the Garage 66 lineup after Mike Wallace was denied entry. This is a one-off for Smith.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Smith returns to the Truck Series to drive the #38 Ford for Front Row Motorsports full-time. 

B.J. McLeod - #78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet

Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (40th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)

2025 Playoff Prospects: McLeod only attempted the plate races last season in the Cup Series, and this year he will run those six events and the Coca-Cola 600.

Jimmie Johnson - #84 Carvana Toyota

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2024 Championship Finish: 37th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2006, 2013)

2025 Playoff Prospects: Johnson has plans to attempt only the Daytona 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. Johnson was the second-fastest Open entry in qualifying, and he has clinched his 22nd Daytona 500 start.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona or Charlotte.

Possible Milestone: Johnson is 2 starts away from 700-start milestone. 

Hélio Castroneves - #91 Wendy's Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: N/A (This will be his NASCAR debut)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2025 Playoff Prospects: Castroneves has a place locked up for the Daytona 500 as the first recipient of the Open Exemption Provisional. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Either the Daytona 500 or the Indianapolis 500, because those are the only races on Castroneves' schedule. Not a bad schedule to have in a season. 

Possible Milestones: Castroneves will become the fifth-oldest driver to make an Daytona 500 debut. He could also join Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt as the only drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 and Daytona 500.

Playoff Driver Predictions

1. Christopher Bell

2. Kyle Larson

3. Denny Hamlin

4. Tyler Reddick

5. Ryan Blaney

6. Chase Elliott

7. Joey Logano

8. Chris Buescher

9. Chase Briscoe

10. Alex Bowman

11. William Byron

12. Bubba Wallace

13. Brad Keselowski

14. Ty Gibbs

15. Kyle Busch

16. Shane van Gisbergen

The first Daytona 500 qualifying race will take place tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET with the second race scheduled to run at 8:45 p.m. ET. There will be a 50-minute practice on Friday February 14 at 5:35 p.m. ET. The 67th Daytona 500 will run at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday February 16.