February is here and there will be an official IndyCar practice session this month. That practice session is 23 days away, and the first race from St. Petersburg is 25 days down the road. We hit the halfway point of our IndyCar team previews with a team stuck in the middle.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing was winning races and looked liked an outside championship threat not long ago. Entering 2025, RLLR has been on a back slide, and it is coming off a disappointing 2024 that ended with its once prized driver leave for a rival outfit. The lineup did not strengthen heading into the new season, but all it can do is hope some changes can lead to better outcomes.
At First Glance... It is difficult to be confident in strong results
This is not a murder's row Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is bringing to the track.
Its lead driver is Graham Rahal, entering year 19 in IndyCar, but coming off an 18th-place championship finish, his worst since 2014. It was the fourth consecutive season Rahal has finished worse in the championship than the year before. He had no top five finishes in a season for the first time ever, and it has been over seven-and-a-half years since he has won a race.
The second driver is Louis Foster, the reigning Indy Lights champion after a dominating season where he won eight races and didn't finish worse than second over the final 11 races. A good track record but Indy Lights champions don't have a great track record in IndyCar. Only three of the previous 11 champions are presently full-time in IndyCar.
Driver #3 is Devlin DeFrancesco, who sat out the entire 2024 season except for the five IMSA Endurance Cup rounds in a pro-am GTD Lamborghini. In his two IndyCar seasons, DeFrancesco did not register a top ten finish and he enters this season tied for the third-most starts in IndyCar history without a top ten finish.
Why should we feel confident this team will improve after it lost Christian Lundgaard, who finished eighth and 11th in the championship the previous two seasons and pulled out a victory in Toronto in 2023?
Foster is the one bright spot, but it will take more than his talent to be respectable. The team must be behind him and supply cars good enough for him to maximize his ability. RLLR has had good runs and it had something with Lundgaard, but that top form on a consistent basis was tougher to come by in the later stages of last season, and it was only Lundgaard reaching that level.
It hasn't even been five years since RLLR won the Indianapolis 500, but the team's oval form has been woeful to say the least. Those six races look like six blackholes where RLLR will be nowhere to be seen. Indianapolis is still a danger zone. It has had at least one car start on the 11th and final row in three consecutive years. The team made strides last year, but not big ones and Graham Rahal was in danger of being bumped for a consecutive year.
Rahal has turned it around before. After being 19th in the 2014 season and then losing National Guard sponsorship, Rahal rebounded to be a championship-contender in 2015, only for two accidents in the final two races to end his dream season and knock him down to fourth in the final championship results despite being at least the second-best driver the entire year.
But that was ten years ago and unless that spark is found a decade later, we are not going to see something magically all over again.
The team couldn't break the top ten in the championship last year, and it is not better situated heading into 2025. This is set to be a long season, and an eye-opener but one that will not surprise anyone.
2024 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 2nd (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 11th (Christian Lundgaard), Graham Rahal (18th), Devlin DeFrancesco (19th), Takuma Sato (37th), Jüri Vips (39th)
Graham Rahal - #15 Fifth Third Bank/United Rentals Honda
Numbers to Remember:
20: Consecutive races without a top five finish entering this season
124: Consecutive races without a victory entering this season, currently tied for the longest streak for most race between victories, which Rahal holds between his first career victory at St. Petersburg in 2008 and Fontana in 2015
16.142: Average finish in seven oval races last season with four finishes of 20th or worse
What does a championship season look like for him?
IndyCar making a drastic change to the calendar with 14 races being moved to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, the one track RLLR has been consistently good at over the last few seasons. Adding those 14 races to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis means 15 races would happen on the same circuit. The other two races that would be untouched are the Indianapolis 500 and Mid-Ohio, RLLR's home race just to give them something to shoot for.
With 15 races on the IMS road course, Rahal has many opportunities to pull off victories after a staggering number of close calls and mostly losing to Scott Dixon. With 15 IMS road course races, Rahal wins four of them, finishes on the podium nine times and he has 12 top five finishes. He has a good day at Mid-Ohio and his Indianapolis 500 is not great, but better than it has been and somehow Rahal wins what is actually a nightmare of a championship scenario for IndyCar.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Rahal should be better than 18th as he was in 2024. Marginally better results will only see marginal gains in the championship, but it is something. A top five result could happen, but great likelihood is Rahal turns some of those 11th and 15th-place finishes in something a little bit better. There is also the case where oval results are not great but better than they were, and that would boost his championship points total.
A year with one top five finish or possibly no top five finishes but eight or nine top ten finishes will feel a little better. It will not show for much, as it might get him back to 13th or 14th in the championship.
Devlin DeFrancesco - #30 EV Tec Honda
Numbers to Remember:
43: Most starts without a top ten finish in IndyCar history (Milka Duno)
42: Most starts before a first career top ten finish in IndyCar history (Marco Greco)
14: Finishes outside the top twenty in 34 career starts.
What does a championship season look like for him?
A meteor wiping out 90% of the IndyCar grid but a championship still taking place despite all that remains are DeFrancesco, Kyffin Simpson and Sting Ray Robb. This three-car championship comes down to which father can spend more.
It is actually a very close race and the ebbs and flows are startling. Each driver would make big leaps out of nowhere during the season and end up on top. However, when it comes down to raw ability, DeFrancesco has an edge over Simpson and Robb and he is able to win majority of the races and become champion.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
DeFrancesco had some good runs with Andretti Autosport, especially in his second season. The strange thing is DeFrancesco finished a position better in the championship in his second year but scored 29 fewer points.
A top ten finish will be tough, but crazier things have happened in IndyCar. The stars can align to allow DeFrancesco to finish ninth or tenth on a hectic day where he keeps his nose clean and many do not. It would not be on a regular basis, there is a good chance it would not happen more than once, but it is possible.
One top ten finish will not account for much, and considering what Pietro Fittipaldi could get out of this entry, top twenty in the championship feels like the limit for DeFrancesco. Fittipaldi was 19th because four entries had multiple drivers rotate through. The #30 Honda was 23rd in the entrants' championship. If DeFrancesco cracks the top twenty, it was a good year. If he is 22nd or 23rd, he at least didn't take a step back from his predecessor.
Louis Foster - #45 Mi-Jack Honda
Numbers to Remember:
13: Christian Lundgaard's average finish in the #45 Honda last season
7: Top five finishes for Christian Lundgaard in 52 starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
4: Of those top five finishes were at the IMS road course
What does a championship season look like for him?
Foster picking up where he left off in Indy Lights. St. Petersburg is a top five finish almost out of nowhere and he follows it up with a tenth in Thermal and a ninth in Long Beach. Barber Motorsports Park is not a great race as he finishes 14th, but at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Foster gets his first career podium finish in third.
The Indianapolis 500 is a struggle, and it is the same old, same old for RLLR, but through smart driving, Foster finishes 15th. Detroit is a standout performance and he qualifies in the Fast Six. He spends the entire race in the top five and he finishes on the podium again. Though there are some concerns about Gateway, Foster has a good drive to ninth that does not look like much at the time.
The summer is where Foster comes alive. Road America is the location of his first career victory, a stunner of sorts as he starts third and spends the entire race in third before essentially replicating Will Power's drive in 2024 and jumps ahead of the top two in the final pit cycle. The dream continues into Mid-Ohio. Foster puts RLLR on the front row for its home race and he pulls off a second victory again through leaping ahead of the leader during the final pit cycle.
Iowa is a rough patch. Foster finishes 14th and 11th over those two races, but RLLR has another stellar weekend in Toronto. Foster scores his first career pole position and he wins. At Laguna Seca, Foster qualifies on pole position and he wins. At Portland, Foster qualifies fifth and finishes third.
Heading into the final two races, both on ovals, Foster has four victories, seven podium finishes and eight top five finishes. With hopes low, RLLR has its best two oval weekends in quite some time. Foster is able to qualify in the top ten at both Milwaukee and Nashville, and he is able to climb his way forward in each race, finishing fourth at Milwaukee and sixth at Nashville, enough to squeak out a championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
As we saw with Lundgaard, RLLR can have good days. That wasn't all because of Lundgaard. He likely had some better results than if you put the most average driver in the seat, but some of it was because the car was decent and he could get the most of it.
Foster is not Lundgaard and he will not be challenging for victories. Foster could match or beat his senior teammate Rahal. It could be a regular thing where those two are right next to each other on track and some weekends Foster is quicker and other weeks Rahal is better. It does feel like Foster could be the one who gets the edge more than not.
With fresh eyes, Foster could get more out of a car where it has been difficult to find a solution. Without being beaten down over the previous two seasons, Foster can work through the hard times a little better and get more positive results out of them.
RLLR is set up to be a team where one car finishes between 12th and 15th in the championship, the second car is going to finish between 16th and 20th, and DeFrancesco ends up between 20th and 27th. It all comes down to whether or not Foster is comfortable enough in a new car to beat Rahal and get the edge, or if Rahal's experience will be the deciding factor and he will lead the team, but Foster will not be far off.
Five to seven top ten finishes is the target Foster should be looking for.
The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.
