Saturday, July 28, 2012

Can An American Win The United States Grand Prix?

Yes. Will an American win? That question does not have as easy as an answer.

With the depth of the current MotoGP field, Nicky Hayden, Ben Spies and Colin Edwards do not have their work cut out for them as they head to Laguna Seca for the United States Grand Prix. Edwards' hopes of winning are already hampered by being on a clearly slower CRT bike and a win by the Texas Tornado would rank as one of the largest upsets in sports history let alone racing history.

Hayden has won two United States Grand Prix. He held off Edwards and his current Ducati teammate Valentino Rossi in 2005 at Laguna Seca for his first MotoGP victory and would go on to win again in 2006 on his way to win his first World Championship. That 2006 victory is however Hayden's last win to date in MotoGP and his best finish at Laguna Seca since 2006 is fifth. Hayden has showed a good pace at the last two events only to end with finishes of tenth and seventh respectively. Hayden's mind should be at ease somewhat this weekend after signing an extension with Ducati through next season.

Ben Spies' mind may be at a different place. After announcing he would be leaving the factory Yamaha team at the end of the 2012 season, his plans for 2013 are not as clear. After winning last year's Dutch TT in his first year with the factory Yamaha team, he would go on to miss two of final three races after accidents at Australia and Malaysia but would rebound and finish second at the final race of 2011 at Valencia. But no momentum carried through to 2012. No podiums so far and he has finished outside the top ten in four of the nine races this season. In his three previous United States Grand Prix, Spies' best finish is fourth but that is after finishing eighth as a wild card entry in 2008 and sixth on the Tech3 Yamaha in 2010.

The 2012 season has been dominated by Jorge Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa and Casey Stoner with Andrea Dovizioso in their shadow, scoring four third place finishes in the last five races. Dovizioso's Tech3 teammate, Cal Crutchlow is fifth in the standings ahead of Valentino Rossi and Stefan Brandl, who has had two great races heading to Laguna Seca. Ducati has not won at Laguna Seca since 2006 with Casey Stoner who won last year with Honda. The last four U.S. Grand Prix have been won by four different riders, split between Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Rossi. Americans have a good track record in the U.S. Grand Prix, winning seven of the fifteen runnings as a World Championship event.

The American riders could take their home race and steal the headlines. Spies and Hayden were fourth and seventh after Friday practice, sixth tenths of a second and a second and a third respectively off the fastest time set by Pedrosa. Hayden's 2005 win from pole was a surprise. Could another surprise be in store? We shall see.