2013 Racing Predictions

Before I look toward 2013, I first would like to congratulate Ryan Hunter-Reay and his wife Beccy on the birth of their first child. The child was born on December 28.

Also, there where a few gifts I forgot to put on the IndyCar Christmas List. For Bob Varsha a buyout from his SPEED contract, allowing him to join NBC Sports Net with the ability to be loaned to whoever covers the Barrett-Jackson classic car auctions. For IndyCar, two races added for 2013. One in mid-August, the other in mid-September. The August date preferably being Road America and the September date being an oval. And last but not least, on-board starters for all IndyCar drivers.

With that all wrapped up, predictions for 2013.

1. An American Will Win The Indianapolis 500.
It will have been seven years since Sam Hornish passed Marco Andretti coming to the line to win the Indianapolis 500 and since that day the closest an American has come to winning was JR Hildebrand exiting turn four in 2011. After the momentum of the first American champion in a unified series since Al Unser Jr. in 1994, I think 2013 will finally be the year. Marco Andretti had a great shot last year slip through his fingers and Graham Rahal teamed with Rahal-Letterman-Lanigan Racing could give the multi-car teams a run for there money. Josef Newgarden was impressive for all the month of May and started seventh in his first time at the Speedway. The IndyCar champion Ryan Hunter-Reay started on the front row in 2012 before a mechanical failure ended his day. And let's not forget the native Hoosier Ed Carpenter who won the 2012 season finale at Fontana and was in a threatening position late in the Indianapolis 500 last year.

With all that said it will not be easy for any of the Americans. Dario Franchitti and Helio Castroneves are still going to show up, Tony Kanaan is itching to add an Indianapolis 500 victory to his résumé and Scott Dixon has not finished worse than sixth since 2005. Last year was the first time an American started on the front row since 2006 and first time an American led the most laps since 2005. While the powerhouse teams of Penske and Ganassi combine for only one American driver, Andretti Autosport and Rahal-Letterman-Lanigan are on the rise after 2012, so are the minnows of Carpenter Racing and Fisher-Hartman Racing. This is the best shot for the Americans.

2. First Time Winners and Returning Winners Will Be A Theme For IndyCar.
Simon Pagenuad, Graham Rahal, Sébastien Bourdais and James Hinchcliffe will all win a race in 2013. You heard it here first. Pagenaud was damn close at Long Beach, showed he could hold his own on ovals and has the stones to go for it (see lap 37 restart at Baltimore). While many (including myself) thought Rahal would have won a fistful of races at Ganassi, he came up empty with the toughest second place finish of 2012 after brushing the wall coming to the white flag, allowing Justin Wilson to catch and pass the Ohioan. Rahal had a slow start to 2012 but Rahal-Letterman-Lanigan were on a roll in their first year back in IndyCar full-time, had six great chances at wins last year only to come up with naught. A win would be great for the team and they can dedicate it to the late Scott Roembke.

Bourdais finished ninth in a Lotus. I will say it again, Bourdais finished ninth in a Lotus. While Bourdais only scored one top-ten in seven races with Chevrolet, a full season with the bow-tie brigade should be enough for the four time champion to get a win under his belt. Hinchcliffe was on fire to start 2012 before a disastrous summer. He is a threat everywhere and if Andretti can keep up it's game on the short ovals, Hinchcliffe very well could win Milwaukee or Iowa.

3. Toyota Will Be A Legitimate Threat at Le Mans... But Audi Will Win Again.
Toyota was unbelievably impressive out of the box at Le Mans in 2012 and won three of the first six races with the TS030 Hybrid. But those were six hour races and the 24 Hours of Le Mans is a totally different animal. Just ask Peugeot. Sure they won the race in 2009 but they were the fastest car from 2007-2010 and outnumbered Audi 3 to 1 with sixteen hours to go in 2011 and still could only win once. Audi have a stranglehold on the event. Granted Audi can't dominate Le Mans forever, but I do not see Toyota winning Le Mans for at least another year and by that time Porsche is scheduled to return to LMP1 racing.

4. The Red Bull-Ferrari Rivalry Will Continue, With Räikkönen and Button Making Cameos.
After seeing what Alonso did in 2012 with what was predicted to be a dog of a car, one has to think he won't disappoint in 2013. Vettel has been on top for three seasons now and fourth consecutive championships have only happened twice before. Räikkönen had a tremendous year after being out of Formula One for two seasons and many expect the Lotus to be even better come 2013. With Hamilton heading to Mercedes, McLaren is Button's team for the taking and the 2009 World Champion has the best opportunity to supplant Hamilton as the best British driver in Formula One.

5. Penske Racing Will Bolster Ford And End Chevrolet's Ten Year Reign.
Ford has not won a NASCAR manufacture's title since 2002. Chevrolet's dominance stems from the Hendrick Empire and once GM loyal Joe Gibbs Racing. Chevrolet may still have Johnson, Stewart and Gordon, but Brad Keselowski and Penske Racing will carry Ford to the manufacture's title in one of the closest battles ever. Roush Fenway Racing will turn around what happened in 2012 and both Biffle and Edwards will join Keselowski in the Chase, while Stenhouse Jr. and Ambrose will each win a race in 2013.

6. Ducati Will Win A MotoGP Grand Prix.
After the failed Valentino Rossi experiment, Ducati looks to get back to it's winning ways. Andrea Dovizioso was impressive with the factory Honda squad only to be bounced when the team contracted from three bikes to two and held his own on the Tech3 Yamaha. Nicky Hayden has not won since the United States Grand Prix in his 2006 World Championship winning season and failed to score a podium in 2012 ending a streak of scoring a podium in every season of MotoGP. The Kentucky Kid has shown consistency but has yet been able to compete for wins like he did at Honda. Ben Spies and Italian Andrea Iannone will compete on the costumer Ducatis for Pramac Racing. Spies had a rotten 2012 where it seemed nothing went the Americans way.

Why will Ducati win you ask if I have listed the trials and tribulations the riders have faced? Casey Stoner is now retired, Dani Pedrosa has a tendency to get hurt and Yamaha is a team ready to implode and it's not even 2013 yet. Dovizioso found ways onto the podium last year and is on the brink of his second MotoGP win. For the Italian rider, why not do it on an Italian bike?

7. Yamaha Will Implode.
The Jorge Lorenzo-Valentino Rossi pairing has Senna-Prost written all over it. However this is the sequel. Lorenzo is a double MotoGP World Champion and clearly believes Yamaha is his team and is not sharing the spotlight. Rossi is the seven time MotoGP champion who believes he still got it after all these years. They are two massive egos and only one can survive. Rossi is in the twilight of his career but that is not going to stop the Italian from pushing his Spaniard counterpart to the limits. Rossi will not settle for the "number two treatment." He wants to win and Ducati did not provide that opportunity.

Lorenzo wants to be the clear number one but Rossi will not concede easily. Lorenzo will be brought down to Earth after a dominating 2012 and will not be happy about it. He knows Honda is a dangerous threat and Dani Pedrosa is running out of opportunities to win a MotoGP Championship. Meanwhile, Dovizioso is a number one ride at a factory team and wants to be considered a top tier rider. Something will have to give at Yamaha. With that said, Yamaha fans, enjoy the 2013 season, because things will change for 2014, despite whatever the team says.

8. The American Sports Car Merger Will Be Much More Peaceful Than IndyCar.
And there are numerous reasons why.
1. They didn't throw everything together a month before the season began.
2. There is no sense of "we won and you lost" in this example.
3. Both sides are getting a democratic say, where as IndyCar was more of a military dictatorship marching in.
4. They are looking at what is best for the sport as a whole. What tracks are important? What classes are important? And what is important TO THE FANS!? Are all questions being asked. God, they are using common sense.

But with that said, there are still many things to be worked out. While the Rolex Sports Car Series provide affordable cars on both the prototype and GT side of things, ALMS fans do not want their technological beasts being dumbed down. The 24 Hours of Le Mans has to be the highlight for the teams here in the US, despite the fact their is the 24 Hours of Daytona. The schedule has to somehow be comprised of events such as Daytona, Sebring, Petit Le Mans, Road America, Laguna Seca, Watkins Glen and Austin; while somehow also allowing room for nontraditional circuits such as Kansas Speedway, Baltimore, Barber Motorsports Park, Belle Isle and Indianapolis; and of course allowing enough time for Le Mans. This will be fun to watch.

9. If He Enters, Tony Stewart Will Win The Truck Race At Eldora.
No one is sure what type of wild cards will enter the Wednesday night event at the Rossburg, Ohio track but if Stewart is one of the entrants, he is the favorite hands down. Sure the likes of Kyle Larson and others from USAC and the World of Outlaws will try to enter and give the Truck regulars a run for their money but Stewart would want the honor of first NASCAR dirt win in over forty years on his résumé maybe more than Daytona 500 winner (I will admit that's a stretch).

10. IndyCar Will Get a New CEO. And Whoever It Is, They Will Have Work To Do.
I do not know when Mark Miles will hire the new CEO of IndyCar and removes the interim tag from Jeff Belskus, but it will be done before 2014 and the fans want a little less talk and a lot more action. The fans want aero kits figured out, deals worked out with engine manufactures, more support from the TV partners, a title sponsor lined up if Izod does not renew and favorite races brought back to the schedule. The CEO needs to lead the car owners and set them straight when needed.

No more, we are talking to Phoenix, we are talking to Road America. The fans want deals done. The fans do not want to hear about owners whining about money or turbo regulations. No more talks of revolt and more talks of unity. Cleaning house of anybody with a bone to pick (and Brian Barnhart I am directing this one at you) and hiring bright minds who want IndyCar to succeed because they love the sport with all there heart (like Donald Davidson. If they are not like Donald Davidson, show them the door). The time is now for IndyCar to shed the past and dive head first into the ocean that is the future.

While I do not know if any of these predictions will come true, I do know that racing cannot begin soon enough and I am looking forward to 2013 like nobody else. Happy New Year.