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| Hélio Castroneves (3) looks to jump Will Power (12) for the title with Simon Pagenaud (77) lurking |
The first narrative was the best player in the world, Lionel Messi, would win the World Cup and join the Pantheon of greatest of all-time with the likes of Pelé and fellow Argentine Diego Maradona. The second narrative was a European team having never won a World Cup in the Americas would come to an end.
As the Verizon IndyCar Series heads to the season finale at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, the championship contenders put major IndyCar narrative vs. major IndyCar narrative where one will finally be changed while the will continue into 2015.
First, Will Power finally closes out a championship. After entering three of the last four season finales as the championship leader and leaving the runner-up, will this be the year Power is finally able to avoid a catastrophic event and wins his first championship? Whether it be brushing the wall, getting run into on the pit lane or simply over driving the car at a time he didn't need to, misfortune has followed Power each time he has had the championship within his grasp. Last year, Power drove an sensational race at Fontana, winning from pole position and leading the most laps at 103. He appears he has learned from his previous failures but his spin at turn seven at Sonoma after dominating the race up to that point and dropped him from contention for a victory to barely a top ten finish makes you wonder if the pressure is getting to the Australian and if he is repeating the missteps that have cost him previously. The spin saw the Australian go from having 80-plus point advantage heading to Fontana to 51 points. While still a significant margin, 51 points is anything but a safety blanket with Fontana being worth double points.
Second, Hélio Castroneves finally wins a championship. The Brazilian has finished runner-up for the title on three occasions but this weekend will mark the sixth time he has entered a season finale with a shot at the title. Can Castroneves chase down his teammate? Last year, Castroneves' lack of aggression arguably cost him the title as he pussyfooted as the schedule started to dwindle down only to have a relentless Scott Dixon take the championship with a victory and second at Houston and a top five at Fontana. In 2008, despite having his back against the wall entering the season finale at Chicagoland and being put further behind the 8-ball when he dip below the white line during qualifying, dropping him to the back of a 28-car grid, Castroneves was able to put together arguably the best race of his career, going from 28th to 1st in 78 laps and leading a race-high 80 laps on his way to victory but fell short in the championship as Scott Dixon would finish second in the race and take the title by 17 points. If Castroneves can replicate the aggression from six years ago, the pressure might be enough to break Power and finally get the Brazilian a title on his résumé next to his three Indianapolis 500 victories.
There is one other narrative that is in play. Penske's failure to win a championship. Simon Pagenaud sits third in the championship, 81 points back. The Frenchman is anything but out of it. This is the seventh consecutive season finale Team Penske has entered with a shot at the title. In the previous six, The Captain has walked out without any silverware. His last title was Sam Hornish, Jr. in 2006 and before that was Gil de Ferran in 2001. Whether it be Castroneves or Power or Ryan Briscoe at Chicagoland or Homestead or Fontana, Penske just hasn't be able to hoist the trophy after the final checkered flag has been waved. It finally appears to be lining up for Roger Penske. He has drivers lined-up first and second in the championship and logic would state two bullets are better than one.
What if it doesn't work out for Penske? What if this Saturday night at Fontana is the pinnacle of letdowns and the little team that could, Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports with one of the most under appreciated drivers on the grid, Simon Pagenaud where to nick one from the mighty empire?
Let's look at what has to happen for that to be a reality.
Pagenaud has to win the race. Second place is not enough for the Frenchman. Even if he wins, he is going to need results to fall in his favor. If Pagenaud scores the maximum 104 points at Fontana, he needs Power to finish nineteenth or worse and if Power leads a lap, Pagenaud needs Power to finish twentieth or worse as Power owns the tiebreaker, which like Indy Lights would come down to most second place finishes as the former Team Australia teammates would be tied with three victories. Power has three runner-ups to Pagenaud's naught. Along with Power finishing either nineteenth or worse, with maximum points, Pagenaud would need Castroneves to finish third or worse to clinch the title.
If Pagenaud scores the minimum amount of points for a victory, 101, he would need Power to finish twenty-first or worse with no bonus points and Castroneves to finish third or worst as long as Castroneves does not pick up more than one bonus point. If Castroneves picks up multiple bonus points, Pagenaud would need him to finish fourth or worse.
For Power to win the title regardless of what anyone else does, he has to finish at least sixth. If Power picks up a bonus point at Fontana, he can finish seventh and win the title. The worst Castroneves can finish with no bonus points and win the title is third. Castroneves could win the title by finishing fourth but he would need to score the maximum four bonus points and have Power finish last with no bonus points to his name.
Should the great train robbery that would be Pagenaud and Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports lifting the Astor Cup occur, someone at Penske is going to be fired. I just can't imagine Roger Penske, the guy who fired Tom Sneva after back-to-back championship, albeit 36 years ago, is going to keep his cabinet unchanged after having the top two in the championship entering the season finale only to walk out for a seventh consecutive year empty handed. If the pressure of winning a championship wasn't enough for the #3 AAA and #12 Verizon teams, add the pressure of championship-or-bust from The Captain himself.
