Wednesday, January 31, 2018

2018 Bathurst 12 Hour Preview

Another week, another endurance race and another legendary circuit. For the 16th-time the Mount Panorama Circuit hosts the Bathurst 12 Hour and it once again leads off the four-race Intercontinental GT Challenge series. The remaining three rounds will be the Spa 24 Hours on July 28-29, the Suzuka 10 Hours on August 26th and the California 8 Hours from Laguna Seca on October 28th.

Fifty-two cars are on the entry list across the five classes. The GT3 class is divided into the PRO, PRO-AM and AM divisions. Class B is made up of GT3 Cup cars and Class C is made up of GT4 cars. Class I is for invitational entries and features 10 cars, seven of which are from MARC Car Australia.

As has become accustomed with these previews, we will look at each entry from the three GT3 divisions, Class B and Class C. Each entry will list the drivers, a reason why that entry will win its class and why it will not take victory.

PRO
#17 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Steven Kane, Guy Smith, Jules Gounon
Why this entry will win: Kane and Smith have had a lot of success together in the Bentley. Kane and Smith finished third overall in this race last year. Gounon won last year's Spa 24 Hours and Gounon is the reigning ADAC GT Masters championship. Team M-Sport won the Blancpain Endurance Series Teams' championship.
Why this entry will not win: Bentley has never won the Bathurst 12 Hour and a British driver has never won this race and neither has a French driver.

#18 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Andy Soucek, Maxime Soulet, Vincent Abril
Why this entry will win: This trio finished second in the Blancpain Endurance Series drivers' championship last year and won at Circuit Paul Ricard as well as finishing second in the Spa 24 Hours.
Why this entry will not win: Some of the reasons are the same as its sister car and these three finished 12th last year, seven laps down.

#22 Audi Sport Customer Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Garth Tander, Kelvin van der Linde, Frédéric Vervisch
Why this entry will win: Tander is a three-time Bathurst 1000 winner and won this race when it was a 24-hour race in 2002 and he finished second the following year. Van der Linde has made some impressive drives, including last year in the 24 Hours Nürburgring and arguably had a 24 Hours of Daytona victory stolen from his last week. Vervisch is a competent GT driver.
Why this entry will not win: Audi has not won this race since 2012. Vervisch is a Bathurst rookie, as is van der Linde and Tander's experience will not be enough.

#37 Audi Sport Team WRT Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Robin Frijns, Stuart Leonard, Dries Vanthoor
Why this entry will win: Frijns and Leonard are defending Blancpain Sprint Series champions and Frijns has been promoted to Audi's DTM team. Vanthoor has the capability to win GT races.
Why this entry will not win: A sprint race is not an endurance race and I am not sure this group will have what it takes.

#43 BMW Team Schnitzer BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Augusto Farfus, Chaz Mostert, Marco Wittmann
Why this entry will win: Two DTM drivers paired with a Bathurst 1000 winner, plus Mostert has been getting extra time in the M6 GT3 as he has been competing in the Asian Le Mans Series. Wittmann finished 14th in this race last year driving with Steven Richards and Mark Winterbottom.
Why this entry will not win: BMW has not won this race since it became a GT3-spec race and the German manufacture has only one top ten finished since the introduction of the GT3 class. Wittmann was in the best finishing BMW last year.

#56 Mercedes-AMG Team Strakka Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Maximilian Buhk, Maximilian Götz, Álvaro Parente
Why this entry will win: Buhk and Götz were a formidable pair when at HTP Motorsport. Parente won this race in 2016 with Shane van Gisbergen and Jonathon Webb and Parente has been one of the top drivers in the United States since he moved to Pirelli World Challenge and he is coming off a good showing at the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Why this entry will not win: This is Team Strakka Racing's first trip to Bathurst with the Merecdes-AMGs. On top of that, Mercedes has not won at Bathurst since 2013.

#58 YNA Autosport McLaren 650S GT3
Drivers: Shane van Gisbergen, Craig Lowndes, Côme Ledogar
Why this entry will win: Lowndes picked up his second victory in this event to go along with his six Bathurst 1000 victories and van Gisbergen won this race two years ago. Ledogar and van Gisbergen were Blancpain Endurance Series champions in 2016.
Why this entry will not win: Lowndes is on the backend of his career and repeating is hard to do.

#74 Audi Sport Customer Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Christopher Mies, Christopher Haase, Markus Winkelhock
Why this entry will win: Mies is a two-time Bathurst 12 Hours winner and he won last year in the 24 Hours Nürburgring. Winkelhock is the defending Intercontinental GT Challenge champion after he won at Spa-Francorchamps and Laguna Seca. Haase was also a part of that Spa 24 Hours winning team and Haase finished second in the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship with Mies coming in third.
Why this entry will not win: It is hard to come up with a reason why this car won't win.

#75 Mercedes-AMG Team SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Kenny Habul, Tristan Vautier, Jamie Whincup, Raffaele Marciello
Why this entry will win: Whincup is one of the greatest Australian drivers and won this race last year. He is also a four-time Bathurst 1000 winner. Marciello is a GP2 race winner and is a past European Formula 3 champion making the transition to sports cars. Vautier is coming off a promising race in Daytona and Habul did well in the GT Daytona class.
Why this entry will not win: Half of these drivers are Bathurst rookies and Marciello is still getting his feet wet in GT cars.

#100 BMW Team SRM BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Steven Richards, Timo Glock, Philipp Eng
Why this entry will win: Richards won this race in 2002 when it was a 24-hour race and he is a four-time Bathurst 1000 winner. Glock has been a consistent race winner in DTM. Eng is a past Porsche Supercup champion and finished fourth in ADAC GT Masters last year.
Why this entry will not win: See the reasons why the #43 BMW will not win and add to that Richards has not finished in the top ten in his last four Bathurst 12 Hour starts.

#911 Manthey Racing Porsche 911 GT3 R
Drivers: Romain Dumas, Frédéric Makowiecki, Dirk Werner
Why this entry will win: This is basically a GTE-Pro caliber line-up. Dumas finished second in the 24 Hours of Daytona last week and besides Daytona, the only other endurance race he is missing from his mantle is Bathurst (and Dubai, I guess). Makowiecki has won races in the FIA WEC, GT1 World Championship and he won the Suzuka 1000 KM in 2013.
Why this entry will not win: Surprisingly, Porsche has never won the Bathurst 12 Hour and these are three Bathurst rookies.

#991 Craft-Bamboo Racing Porsche GT3 R
Drivers: Earl Bamber, Kevin Éstre, Laurens Vanthoor
Why this entry will win: This is another GTE-Pro caliber line-up. Bamber is the defending World Endurance Drivers' Champion and a two-time 24 Hours of Le Mans winner. He also has two Class B victories in the Bathurst 12 Hour. Vanthoor had a rough first season with Porsche and he is ready to rebound. Éstre is one of the underrated GT drivers.
Why this entry will not win: This is another entry where it is hard to come up with a reason why it will not win. Other than Porsche has yet to win at Bathurst is all I got.

PRO-AM
#8 Scott Taylor Motorsport Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Max Twigg, Craig Baird, Tony D'Alberto
Why this entry will win: D'Alberto is coming off his best finish in the Bathurst 1000 after he finished third last year with Fabian Coulthard. Baird won the Bathurst 12 Hour in 2007 and picked up a class victory in the race the following year. Twigg finished sixth in Australian GT Championship.
Why this entry will not win: Baird has retired from the last four Bathurst 12 Hours.

#9 Audi Sport Customer Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Marc Cini, Lee Holdsworth, Dean Fiore
Why this entry will win: Holdsworth has been a full-time Supercars driver for over a decade. Fiore has plenty of experience on Mount Panorama.
Why this entry will not win: For the overall victory, it has a lot of tough Audis to beat let alone the other cars in the PRO-AM division.

#11 Objective Racing McLaren 650S GT3
Drivers: Tony Walls, Warren Luff, Tim Slade, Jaxon Evans
Why this entry will win: Slade and Luff both have been regulars in the Bathurst 1000. Evans finished second in the Australian Endurance Championship and fifth in the Porsche Carrera Cup Australia championship last year.
Why this entry will not win: Evans is a younger driver and this is a big chance for him.

#12 Competition Motorsports Porsche 991 GT3 R
Drivers: David Calvert-Jones, Patrick Long, Matt Campbell, Alex Davison
Why this entry will win: The first three drivers finished second overall in this race last year and won the PRO-AM division. Long is the reigning Pirelli World Challenge champion and Campbell has won at Bathurst in Porsche Carrera Cup Australia. Davison has had a lot of experience at Mount Panorama.
Why this entry will not win: It is tough to see how this car will not win in PRO-AM but this entry could win overall.

#19 Nineteen Corp R/L Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: David Reynolds, John Martin, Liam Talbot, Mark Griffith
Why this entry will win: Reynolds won last year's Bathurst 1000 with Luke Youlden and he is coming off a seventh place finish in the Supercars championship. Martin has had success in sports cars and has won in the LMP2 class in the FIA WEC. Talbot finished second last year in the Australian GT Championship and Talbot and Martin finished third in the Australian Endurance Championship.
Why this entry will not win: In class, the #12 Porsche will be tough competition.

#29 Trofeo Motorsport Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Jim Manolios, Ryan Miller, Ivan Capelli, Dean Canto
Why this entry will win: Canto has made 19 Bathurst 1000 starts. Capelli is a former Formula One driver who has raced at Mount Panorama before.
Why this entry will not win: Canto finished second in the Bathurst 1000 in 2012 but he had retired from 11 of those starts and Capelli is 54 years old.

#32 Lago Racing Lamborghini Gallardo R-EX GT3
Drivers: Roger Lago, David Russell, Steve Owen
Why this entry will win: Owen has twice finished runner-up in the Bathurst 1000. Russell has experience in this car driving in the Australian GT Championship and ADAC GT Masters.
Why this entry will not win: It is an older Lamborghini and the line-up might not be good enough.

#39 Audi Sport Team WRT Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Pedro Lamy, Paul Dalla Lana, Mathias Lauda, Will Davison
Why this entry will win: Once again, the famed FIA WEC GTE-Am line-up is competitive wherever it seems to go and these drivers had a good day going at Daytona before an accident. Davison is a two-time Bathurst 1000 winner.
Why this entry will not win: I wonder if the wear of a trip from Florida to Australia will get to Lamy, Dalla Lana and Lauda.

#47 YNA Autosport McLaren 650S GT3
Drivers: Scott McLaughlin, Fraser Ross, Andrew Watson, Alexander West
Why this entry will win: McLaughlin is one of the best drivers in Supercars and he has had good runs at Mount Panorama. Watson has had some success in the British GT Championship.
Why this entry will not win: McLaughlin and Watson are good but I am not sure they could carry the load.

#55 Mercedes-AMG Team Srakka Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Nick Leventis, Lewis Williamson, Cameron Waters, David Fumanelli
Why this entry will win: Mercedes-AMG has had success in the Bathurst 12 Hour. Leventis and Williamson have experience racing with one another. Waters has a top five finish in the Bathurst 1000 and finished seventh in the Supercars championship last season. Fumanelli has had success in the Blancpain Sprint Series Silver Cup.
Why this entry will not win: This line-up is inexperienced at Bathurst outside of Waters and the team is still getting up to speed with the Mercedes.

#82 International Motorsport Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Andrew Bagnall, Matthew Halliday, Johnny Reid
Why this entry will win: Bagnall and Halliday raced together in the Australian GT Championship. Reid has been all over the place and was very successful in A1GP a decade ago.
Why this entry will not win: Bagnall is an older driver and I am not sure if this car can keep up.

#540 Black Swan Racing Porsche 911 GT3 R
Drivers: Tim Pappas, Jeroen Bleekemolen, Luca Stolz, Marc Lieb
Why this entry will win: Lieb finished second last year with Calvert-Jones, Long and Campbell. Bleekemolen had a good run at Daytona and Stolz was his teammate as the team finished fourth in the GT Daytona class. Stolz has been getting his fair share of endurance race experience in the early part of 2018. Bleekemolen has Bathurst experience; he was van Gisbergen's Bathurst 1000 co-driver in 2013.
Why this entry will not win: It is asking a lot for an American team to go to Australia and be successful. The team could struggle from jet lag.

#777 Buik Motorwork Lamborghini Gallardo R-EX GT3
Drivers: Yasser Shahin, Luke Youlden, Tomáš Enge
Why this entry will win: Youlden won last year's Bathurst 1000 with David Reynolds. Enge has won his fair share of GT races.
Why this entry will not win: This isn't even the most current Lamborghini that could be raced in this event. Youlden and Enge are both over 40 years of age.

AM
#3 Audi Sport Customer Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Ash Samadi, Daniel Gaunt, Dylan O'Keefe
Why this entry will win: Samadi and Gaunt finished seventh in last year's race with Matt Halliday, good enough for second in the PRO-AM division. O'Keefe won last year in Class B.
Why this entry will not win: It has two stiff competitors in the AM division.

#6 Safe-T-Stop Lamborghini Gallardo LP560 GT3
Drivers: Richard Gartner, Hadrian Morrall, David Wall, John Bowe
Why this entry will win: Bowe is the all-time leader in Bathurst 12 Hour victories with three and he won the Bathurst 1000 twice. Wall has been a regular competitor in the Bathurst 1000 for the last decade and is the defending Porsche Carrera Cup Asia champion.
Why this entry will not win: It is an older Lamborghini.

#69 Audi Sport Customer Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: James Koundoris, Theo Koundoris, Ash Walsh, Duvashen Padayachee
Why this entry will win: This is a line-up that knows Mount Panorama Circuit. Padayachee won the AM division last year. Walsh finished third in the Australian GT Championship.
Why this entry will not win: The two Koundorises (is that the right plural?) have had their ups and downs in the Bathurst 12 Hour.

Class B
#4 Grove Motorsport Pty Ltd. Porsche 911 GT3 Cup
Drivers: Stephen Grove, Brenton Grove, Ben Barker
Why this entry will win: Since 2013, in class Grove Motorsport has finished second, first, second, first and unfortunately retired after 32 laps last year but it has been a competitive car.
Why this entry will not win: Stephen Grove and Barker have been strong but there have been stronger third drivers in this car.

#21 JFC-Carter Grange Porsche 911 GT3 Cup
Drivers: Daniel Stutterd, Sam Fillmore
Why this entry will win: Stutterd and Fillmore take a step down after being in the Class A AM class last year so they have competed in quicker cars around Mount Panorama.
Why this entry will not win: At time of writing, it only has two drivers listed and it will need to find a third.

#23 Team Carrera Cup Asia Porsche 911 GT3 Cup
Drivers: Paul Tresidder, Chris Van der Drift, Andrew Tang, Chen Yi-Fan
Why this entry will win: Van der Drift is a two-time and reigning Porsche Carrera Cup Asia winner. Tang finished fourth in the championship and Chen was the Pro-Am champion.
Why this entry will not win: Tresidder is the weakest link in this car.

#42 On Track Motorsport Porsche 997 GT3 Cup
Drivers: Garry Mennell, Kean Booker, Aaron Zerefos, Mark Caine
Why this entry will win: Zerefos finished fourth in Class B last year.
Why this entry will not win: It is the entry I know the least about. Not a good reason to give but I think there are three stronger Class B entries than this one.

#85 Wall Racing Porsche 911 GT3 Cup
Drivers: Charles Espenlaub, Charles Putman, Joe Foster
Why this entry will win: These three have been very successful in the 24H Series and unfortunately they did not start last year's race.
Why this entry will not win: It is a good line-up but I feel it is missing something needed to win the class.

Class C
#13 RHC-Lawrence/Storm (MarcGT) BMW M4 GT4
Drivers: Daren Jorgensen, Cameron Lawrence, Brett Strom, Kuno Wittmer
Why this entry will win: This team is made up of two top North American drivers in Cameron Lawrence and Kuno Wittmer.
Why this entry will not win: It is an inexperienced line-up at Bathurst.

#15 Baigent Motorsport BMW M4 GT3
Drivers: Kent Baigent, Neil Allport, Matt Wilding-Spratt, Ash Blewett
Why this entry will win: A New Zealand team with an all-New Zealander driver line-up and if there is one thing we have learned it is New Zealanders make damn fine drivers.
Why this entry will not win: It is a good line-up but I am not sure it will be strong enough to win this class.

#30 Boat Works Racing BMW M4 GT4
Drivers: Aaron Seton, Matt Brabham, Anthony Longhurst
Why this entry will win: Brabham is a young driver that unfortunately has been left behind but he has a chance to get everyone's attention. Seton has raced this race prior in Class I. Longhurst might be 60 years old but he is a two-time Bathurst 1000 winner and won the 2009 Bathurst 12 Hour and he competed last year in the PRO class.
Why this entry will not win: It is a collection of drivers with not much experience in the car.

#44 BMW Team SRM BMW GT4 
Drivers: Dean Grant, Xaiver West, Cameron Hill
Why this entry will win: Grant has made three Bathurst 12 Hour starts and all in GT3 cars. West won in Class B last year. Hill competed in the Toyota Finance 86 Championship in New Zealander.
Why this entry will not win: I think Hill could be a weak link.

#46 Prosport Performance GABH Porsche Cayman PRO4
Drivers: Jörg Viebahn, Max Braam, Marco Schelp, Nico Verdonck
Why this entry will win: This team won in Class C last year with Viebann and Braam.
Why this entry will not win: Repeating is hard to do and it has a lot of BMWs to contend with.

#48 M Motorsports P/L KTM X-Bow GT4
Drivers: Justin McMillan, David Crampton, Tim Macrow, Caitlin Wood
Why this entry will win: McMillan just ran the Dubai 24 Hour. Macrow is a two-time Australian Drivers' Champions. Wood raced in Europe in the GT4 European Series.
Why this entry will not win: There are a couple strong cars in class, most notably the #46 Porsche and a few of the BMWs.

#49 KTM / M Motorsport KTM X-Bow GT4 
Drivers: Glen Wood, Trent Harrison, Cody Hill
Why this entry will win: Wood won a race in the Australian GT Championship last year. Hill has done some lower-level racing in Australia.
Why this entry will not win: Harrison has been out of racing since 2013.

#77 Ginetta Australia Ginetta G55 GT4
Drivers: Coleby Cowham, Lindsay Kearns, Charlie Robinson
Why this entry will win: Cowham and Kearns finished third in Class C last year driving a Porsche.
Why this entry will not win: It isn't even the best Ginetta in class.

#88 Ginetta Australia Ginetta G55 GT4
Drivers: Jaie Robson, William Tregurtha, Ben Walsh
Why this entry will win: Tregurtha won the British GT GT4 championship with recent 24 Hours of Daytona runner-up Stuart Middleton last year. Robson finished fourth in the Aussie Racing Cars series last year.
Why this entry will not win: I am not sure the Ginettas can keep up with the Porsche and BMWs.

The Bathurst 12 Hour will start at 1:45 p.m. ET on Saturday February 3rd.